Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

CON leadership latest – politicalbetting.com

1234568»

Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813

    darkage said:

    nico679 said:

    darkage said:

    I just saw a clip of Braverman moaning about people on welfare. It didn't look very "prime ministerial".

    She’s now found a fantasy problem to throw some red meat to the Tory membership . I find her utterly loathsome .
    She appears to be quite an appalling human being.
    She works from gut instinct and is not afraid to reveal her prejudices, a little bit like Priti Patel. Badenoch seems to be altogether a bit wiser and smarter.
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    As a woke lefty I would be delighted to see a black woman PM.
    It wouldn't make me not woke or lefty though thank you.
    Or any less opposed to her policies.
    You see. I don't think it's about race or gender.

    Well I think if you are delighted by a black woman PM but oppose her policies then it IS about race and gender.
    Ha ha. I see how you are twisting that. The fact that we have such a wonderfully diverse range of gender, religion and race to be PM is a reason to be superbly proud to be British. None of that is a bar at all.
    The fact that they are economically incompetent, borderline corrupt or spectacularly inexperienced does.
    The irony of course is that the liberal society we have has been fought for long and hard by the left and opposed by the Tories at every step.
    Well why on earth would a conservative party fight for a liberal society? Plenty of Conservatives are non white, female and not liberals too. There are some economic and social liberals within the Conservative party but it is still a conservative not liberal party

    Though of course not all leftwingers are socially liberal either. Plenty of those who are economic socialists are also relative social conservatives, indeed a number of them live in the redwall
    It doesn't really matter what the Tories do or think - liberal values win in the long-term anyway...

    Equal rights for women? Tories oppose but it still comes into effect.
    Legalisation of homosexuality? Tories oppose but it still comes into effect.
    Gay marriage? Tories oppose but it still comes into effect.
    Disability rights? Tories oppose but it still comes into effect.
    Anti-race discrimination? Tories oppose but it still comes into effect.
    An increase in the amount of surveillance in society over recent decades is not my idea of liberal values.
    Sadly no one on left or right seems to care, save David Davis, and he’s seen as a relic now.
    Getting rid of Hikvision cameras might be a good step in the right direction...
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,953
    edited July 2022

    Senior officials held a crisis Cobra meeting inside Downing Street on Monday, as forecasters predicted that the record for Britain's hottest day could be broken at the weekend – potentially smashing through the 104F (40C) barrier for the first time.

    Why do the media put things in Fahrenheit, nobody under the age of 50 understands it

    In my late thirties. Me and my peers do. Mostly because, growing up, the weather always used to say “and that’s X in Fahrenheit”.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,613

    Sir John Hayes, chairman of the Common Sense Group of Conservative MPs, said: "This is not a brave new world but a cowardly new world where we live in a country where we are frightened of the heat. It is not surprising that in snowflake Britain, the snowflakes are melting. Thankfully, most of us are not snowflakes.

    "The idea that we clamour for hot weather for most of the year and then shut down when it does heat up is indicative of the state in which we now live."

    These people are totally unhinged.

    The “Common Sense Group” is presumably some kind of pastoral organisation for Tory MPs that manifestly lack any sense at all.
    To be fair they did have the good sense not to call themselves the "Common Sense Research Group".
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,407

    Ok so sensible cabinet: PM; Tom Tugenhadt, Chancellor; ;Gove, FS Julian Smith, Home Sec: Sajid Javid Health: Liz Truss, Education; Mark Harper, Business Energy: Jeremy Hunt Defence; Ben Wallace Levelling Up; Aaron Bell Trade: Penny Mordaunt Leader of House; Mel Stride DWP Nadhim Zahawi Justice: Jeremy Wright Defra; Kemi Badenoch

    I think we all know that a sensible cabinet starts with PM: Keir Starmer
    Trouble is it ends with him as well.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,498
    Mordaunt vows to take on the SNP:
    image
  • biggles said:

    Senior officials held a crisis Cobra meeting inside Downing Street on Monday, as forecasters predicted that the record for Britain's hottest day could be broken at the weekend – potentially smashing through the 104F (40C) barrier for the first time.

    Why do the media put things in Fahrenheit, nobody under the age of 50 understands it

    In my late thirties. Me and my peers do. Mostly because, growing up, the weather always used to say “and that’s X in Fahrenheit”.
    You got me. I only know what it is because the media put it in reports, luckily they convert it otherwise I'd have no idea what they were going on about!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    edited July 2022
    Mogg, Dories and Cleverly moving for Truss feels significant. Both Sunak and Mordaunt feel a bit short and I'm not sure it'll be one of the rags. But loads of the rags lean right and I think that helps Truss when they drop out.
    So £20 on Truss at 5.0 it is - she might overtake Penny, can see this being a Truss vs Sunak showdown for the final two.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,613

    Senior officials held a crisis Cobra meeting inside Downing Street on Monday, as forecasters predicted that the record for Britain's hottest day could be broken at the weekend – potentially smashing through the 104F (40C) barrier for the first time.

    Why do the media put things in Fahrenheit, nobody under the age of 50 understands it

    I wrote in my little diary at new year that one of my predictions in 2022 would be that we smash the heat record.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    Mordaunt vows to take on the SNP:
    image

    Er, ambitious. I'd start with trying to hold onto the seats they've got, which doesn't look like it will be easy.
  • While I'm delighted by the ConHome poll as a fan of both Kemi and Penny (in that order), it's important to note that they only got, I think, 35% of the first preference vote between them there. So just enough to get one of them through to the final vote if they can't increase their share
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492

    While I'm delighted by the ConHome poll as a fan of both Kemi and Penny (in that order), it's important to note that they only got, I think, 35% of the first preference vote between them there. So just enough to get one of them through to the final vote if they can't increase their share

    Most of Braverman's and Patel's support will eventually end up with those two in my opinion, plus a fair amount from Zahawi, Javid, Shapps. So it's edging closer to 50%.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,922

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Evidence-free, red meat offering from Braverman:

    "Braverman to look at cutting welfare
    Leadership hopeful Suella Braverman says there are "too many people" on benefits and plans to reduce the cost of the welfare state if she becomes prime minister."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-62115347

    Braverman also laying into part time workers getting benefits on top
    At this moment the idea you would promote such a policy is utterly bizarre but fortunately she will not get through
    Yes, she would be a gift for Labour.

    Morduant being unusual in not coming out with completely hatstand ideas. She would be a real threat to Labour.
    FFS.

    She is yet another politician whose name highly educated PBers fail to spell.

    Bruella Saverman
    Shant Grapps
    Zadhim Nahawi
    Bemi Kadenoch
    Menny Pordaunt
    Sishi Runak
    Triz Luss
    Jajid Savid
    Tug Tomendhat
    Chishman Rehti
    Heremy Junt
    It's a shame Doris Nadine hasn't entered the race too.
    Or that Jeremy’s name isn’t Chris.
    Curtis Hunt? Carsen Hunt?

    or even better Cory Hunt?
    There used to be a short priced in-running backer on the Betfair horse racing forum called Warwick Hunt.

    I don't think that was his real name.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,297

    Senior officials held a crisis Cobra meeting inside Downing Street on Monday, as forecasters predicted that the record for Britain's hottest day could be broken at the weekend – potentially smashing through the 104F (40C) barrier for the first time.

    Why do the media put things in Fahrenheit, nobody under the age of 50 understands it

    The summer of 2003 was very hot indeed. I thought it reached 40 degrees then at one point.

    darkage said:

    nico679 said:

    darkage said:

    I just saw a clip of Braverman moaning about people on welfare. It didn't look very "prime ministerial".

    She’s now found a fantasy problem to throw some red meat to the Tory membership . I find her utterly loathsome .
    She appears to be quite an appalling human being.
    She works from gut instinct and is not afraid to reveal her prejudices, a little bit like Priti Patel. Badenoch seems to be altogether a bit wiser and smarter.
    Nothing changes.

    Braverman is straight out of a Dicken's novel wondering why the workhouses aren't more efficient and the hulk ships can't take more of the underserving poor who did not work as she did.

    Talking of which Nicola Sturgeon is offering Ukrainian refugees homes on a disused ship.

    I do hope that somebody's recording all of these stories and collating the results; we need a winner :wink:

    Well if it's a competition .....

    I beat Daniel Day-Lewis in an acting competition when I was 14. My Juliet was to die for.

    In my late 20's I hung out with Tony Wilson at the Hacienda. Roland Gift came to my birthday party and I went out with the brother of the Buzzcock's lead guitarist.

    In my 30's I danced with the then Bishop of Blackpool by a Puglian beach on a hot August evening after he offered me his hand saying: "I bet you've never danced with a bishop before."

    Everything else is far too incendiary for a public forum.

    Still I have @Leon's love nest to look forward to now ...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Sir John Hayes, chairman of the Common Sense Group of Conservative MPs, said: "This is not a brave new world but a cowardly new world where we live in a country where we are frightened of the heat. It is not surprising that in snowflake Britain, the snowflakes are melting. Thankfully, most of us are not snowflakes.

    "The idea that we clamour for hot weather for most of the year and then shut down when it does heat up is indicative of the state in which we now live."

    These people are totally unhinged.

    The “Common Sense Group” is presumably some kind of pastoral organisation for Tory MPs that manifestly lack any sense at all.
    Shit-For-Brains Group more like it. Snowwokes = snowing (fooling) themselves by buying their own BS.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,613
    Pulpstar said:

    Mogg, Dories and Cleverly moving for Truss feels significant. Both Sunak and Mordaunt feel a bit short and I'm not sure it'll be one of the rags. But loads of the rags lean right and I think that helps Truss when they drop out.
    So £20 on Truss at 5.0 it is - she might overtake Penny, can see this being a Truss vs Sunak showdown for the final two.

    Truss is the value bet tonight imho.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    OK, I'm worried - I'm catching this train next Tuesday:

    https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:L77648/2022-07-11#allox_id=0

    At least you're heading north . . . provided the heat doesn't buckle the rails or something . . .

    In Seattle last June, it got up to 42C. To be precise 42.222222222222222222222222222222222 . . .
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    The position of all the candidates apart from the top 5 has collapsed on Betfair Exchange.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Sir John Hayes, chairman of the Common Sense Group of Conservative MPs, said: "This is not a brave new world but a cowardly new world where we live in a country where we are frightened of the heat. It is not surprising that in snowflake Britain, the snowflakes are melting. Thankfully, most of us are not snowflakes.

    "The idea that we clamour for hot weather for most of the year and then shut down when it does heat up is indicative of the state in which we now live."

    These people are totally unhinged.

    The “Common Sense Group” is presumably some kind of pastoral organisation for Tory MPs that manifestly lack any sense at all.
    Shit-For-Brains Group more like it. Snowwokes = snowing (fooling) themselves by buying their own BS.
    The modern "Conservative" Party is fit for opposition and not much else. They need to get all the Kippers and fruitcakes out.

    They might not like the idea, but an electoral wipeout just might clear out a lot of the deadwood
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492

    Sir John Hayes, chairman of the Common Sense Group of Conservative MPs, said: "This is not a brave new world but a cowardly new world where we live in a country where we are frightened of the heat. It is not surprising that in snowflake Britain, the snowflakes are melting. Thankfully, most of us are not snowflakes.

    "The idea that we clamour for hot weather for most of the year and then shut down when it does heat up is indicative of the state in which we now live."

    These people are totally unhinged.

    We've always had a few days each year where the temperature has been between 30 and 35 degrees. We've never made such a fuss of it before.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,613

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    23m
    Busy morning of launches tomorrow.. Rishi, Kemi and TT...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    Just seen a funny statement from old Sean Locke routine....you couldn't have Ed Miliband as PM as he is the sort of man who would be bullied by iggle piggle in the night garden.

    Made me think, which of the current Tory candidates doing the beauty pageant would pass the iggle piggle bully test....a fair few would definitely fail it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    edited July 2022
    Totally missed these - handy, if a little behind now, looking at details of MPs backing various candidates.

    https://twitter.com/kevcunningham/status/1546523797183991811?cxt=HHwWhsC4_ePMrfYqAAAA





  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,613
    Andy_JS said:

    The position of all the candidates apart from the top 5 has collapsed on Betfair Exchange.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    I'm green on top five, so no complaints here!!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346
    Andy_JS said:

    Sir John Hayes, chairman of the Common Sense Group of Conservative MPs, said: "This is not a brave new world but a cowardly new world where we live in a country where we are frightened of the heat. It is not surprising that in snowflake Britain, the snowflakes are melting. Thankfully, most of us are not snowflakes.

    "The idea that we clamour for hot weather for most of the year and then shut down when it does heat up is indicative of the state in which we now live."

    These people are totally unhinged.

    We've always had a few days each year where the temperature has been between 30 and 35 degrees. We've never made such a fuss of it before.
    Personally I'm loving the warm weather. Quite amused that Boris is summoning Cobra about it. Will he declare war on the sun as an attempt to remain in Downing Street?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,636
    edited July 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir John Hayes, chairman of the Common Sense Group of Conservative MPs, said: "This is not a brave new world but a cowardly new world where we live in a country where we are frightened of the heat. It is not surprising that in snowflake Britain, the snowflakes are melting. Thankfully, most of us are not snowflakes.

    "The idea that we clamour for hot weather for most of the year and then shut down when it does heat up is indicative of the state in which we now live."

    These people are totally unhinged.

    We've always had a few days each year where the temperature has been between 30 and 35 degrees. We've never made such a fuss of it before.
    Personally I'm loving the warm weather. Quite amused that Boris is summoning Cobra about it. Will he declare war on the sun as an attempt to remain in Downing Street?
    Today was a typical hot day in a normal summer. A bit uncomfortable for some but nothing too life threatening. That's not the issue.

    The issue is the forecast of next Monday being 10C hotter than today. That's would be an insane temperature for the UK. We do not have the infrastructure for it, because based on the current climate you'd expect it less than once every 10,000 years.

    The last bad heatwave killed approximately 15,000 people in northern Europe. This could well be worse.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,953

    Sir John Hayes, chairman of the Common Sense Group of Conservative MPs, said: "This is not a brave new world but a cowardly new world where we live in a country where we are frightened of the heat. It is not surprising that in snowflake Britain, the snowflakes are melting. Thankfully, most of us are not snowflakes.

    "The idea that we clamour for hot weather for most of the year and then shut down when it does heat up is indicative of the state in which we now live."

    These people are totally unhinged.

    The “Common Sense Group” is presumably some kind of pastoral organisation for Tory MPs that manifestly lack any sense at all.
    Shit-For-Brains Group more like it. Snowwokes = snowing (fooling) themselves by buying their own BS.
    The modern "Conservative" Party is fit for opposition and not much else. They need to get all the Kippers and fruitcakes out.

    They might not like the idea, but an electoral wipeout just might clear out a lot of the deadwood
    Isn’t the problem with the two main parties that electoral wipeout leaves them ONLY with the deadwood?

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    kle4 said:

    Totally missed these - handy, if a little behind now, looking at details of MPs backing various candidates.

    https://twitter.com/kevcunningham/status/1546523797183991811?cxt=HHwWhsC4_ePMrfYqAAAA





    Fascinating to see the Remainers go for Rishi (a leaver) and Javid (a crypto leaver) and not just Hunt and Tugendhat.

    You can also see how right wing Badenoch is - her support is similar in profile to Patel and Braverman.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    edited July 2022
    You wouldn't think a few hot days in July could be used as part of the culture war. Turns out they can be.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Truss has marginally more Remainers than Leavers.

    Suggests she might not do that well in getting transfers from Patel, Braverman and Badenoch. And she surely needs a lot of transfers from them to make the Final.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    MikeL said:

    Truss has marginally more Remainers than Leavers.

    Suggests she might not do that well in getting transfers from Patel, Braverman and Badenoch. And she surely needs a lot of transfers from them to make the Final.

    I agree. I'm convinced most of the transfers from Patel, Braverman, Shapps, etc, will go to Badenoch and she might be able to overtake Truss. It'll be close.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir John Hayes, chairman of the Common Sense Group of Conservative MPs, said: "This is not a brave new world but a cowardly new world where we live in a country where we are frightened of the heat. It is not surprising that in snowflake Britain, the snowflakes are melting. Thankfully, most of us are not snowflakes.

    "The idea that we clamour for hot weather for most of the year and then shut down when it does heat up is indicative of the state in which we now live."

    These people are totally unhinged.

    We've always had a few days each year where the temperature has been between 30 and 35 degrees. We've never made such a fuss of it before.
    Personally I'm loving the warm weather. Quite amused that Boris is summoning Cobra about it. Will he declare war on the sun as an attempt to remain in Downing Street?
    Today was a typical hot day in a normal summer. A bit uncomfortable for some but nothing too life threatening. That's not the issue.

    The issue is the forecast of next Monday being 10C hotter than today. That's would be an insane temperature for the UK. We do not have the infrastructure for it, because based on the current climate you'd expect it less than once every 10,000 years.

    The last bad heatwave killed approximately 15,000 people in northern Europe. This could well be worse.
    Heat wave of June 2021 in Seattle was difficult, esp. for someone like me who moved here to ESCAPE hot weather!

    Situation in Pacific Northwest west of the Cascade Mountains similar in many respects to United Kingdom, for example low level of air conditioning (certainly compared to most of the USA. Worse in built-up areas. One saving grace in Seattle is proximity to water and fact that large parts of the city, esp. residential areas, are a veritable garden with PLENTY of shade trees.

    However, when the thermometer rises and stays up for days and weeks, then bets are off. Esp. if you do NOT have air conditioning.

    On hottest day last year, took a ferry across Puget Sound to take advantage of nature's air conditioning, moving boat over cool water. But when I got to other side, even hotter than in Seattle. AND had to kill a hour before my air conditioned restaurant opened! Then when I got back home, slept down in the basement of my building, because it was bearable there unlike my apartment that night.

    Set the all-time hot-weather record in Seattle that day. In some ways NOT as bad as similar event a few years prior, because THAT heat wave didn't get quite as hot BUT lasted longer, for close to two weeks IIRC.

    AND would consider that we were LUCKY that, unlike many places such as much of California, we did NOT have power brownouts. Talk about your great leveler, a power outage during a heat wave.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,485
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Evidence-free, red meat offering from Braverman:

    "Braverman to look at cutting welfare
    Leadership hopeful Suella Braverman says there are "too many people" on benefits and plans to reduce the cost of the welfare state if she becomes prime minister."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-62115347

    Braverman also laying into part time workers getting benefits on top
    At this moment the idea you would promote such a policy is utterly bizarre but fortunately she will not get through
    Yes, she would be a gift for Labour.

    Morduant being unusual in not coming out with completely hatstand ideas. She would be a real threat to Labour.
    FFS.

    She is yet another politician whose name highly educated PBers fail to spell.

    It's a problem.
    How do you pronounce it? I had always read it - and therefore pronounced it - as more-dew-ant. But evidently it's not. Is it Mord-ant? More-dunt? Mord-aren't? I honestly don't know.
    How do you pronounce mor?

    How do you pronounce daunt?

    Problem solved.
    Is that right? More - dor - nt?

    That's slightly annoying. It's a surname that's not much fun to say.
    Personally think Penny's surname ought to be said to fit the phrase, mordant wit.

    Pithy and to the point, non-toff AND with superfluous "u" that marks her as a "true" Blue Penny.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Looks like bugs swarming a light on a hot Louisiana night.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Andy_JS said:

    You wouldn't think a few hot days in July could be used as part of the culture war. Turns out they can be.

    Why ever not? Esp. when mis-characterizing global warming and environmental protection as part of the "culture war".

    Makes as much sense as saying that Putin is invading Ukraine to protect "true" culture from Western woke.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    edited July 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir John Hayes, chairman of the Common Sense Group of Conservative MPs, said: "This is not a brave new world but a cowardly new world where we live in a country where we are frightened of the heat. It is not surprising that in snowflake Britain, the snowflakes are melting. Thankfully, most of us are not snowflakes.

    "The idea that we clamour for hot weather for most of the year and then shut down when it does heat up is indicative of the state in which we now live."

    These people are totally unhinged.

    We've always had a few days each year where the temperature has been between 30 and 35 degrees. We've never made such a fuss of it before.
    Personally I'm loving the warm weather. Quite amused that Boris is summoning Cobra about it. Will he declare war on the sun as an attempt to remain in Downing Street?
    Today was a typical hot day in a normal summer. A bit uncomfortable for some but nothing too life threatening. That's not the issue.

    The issue is the forecast of next Monday being 10C hotter than today. That's would be an insane temperature for the UK. We do not have the infrastructure for it, because based on the current climate you'd expect it less than once every 10,000 years.

    The last bad heatwave killed approximately 15,000 people in northern Europe. This could well be worse.
    Heat wave of June 2021 in Seattle was difficult, esp. for someone like me who moved here to ESCAPE hot weather!

    Situation in Pacific Northwest west of the Cascade Mountains similar in many respects to United Kingdom, for example low level of air conditioning (certainly compared to most of the USA. Worse in built-up areas. One saving grace in Seattle is proximity to water and fact that large parts of the city, esp. residential areas, are a veritable garden with PLENTY of shade trees.

    However, when the thermometer rises and stays up for days and weeks, then bets are off. Esp. if you do NOT have air conditioning.

    On hottest day last year, took a ferry across Puget Sound to take advantage of nature's air conditioning, moving boat over cool water. But when I got to other side, even hotter than in Seattle. AND had to kill a hour before my air conditioned restaurant opened! Then when I got back home, slept down in the basement of my building, because it was bearable there unlike my apartment that night.

    Set the all-time hot-weather record in Seattle that day. In some ways NOT as bad as similar event a few years prior, because THAT heat wave didn't get quite as hot BUT lasted longer, for close to two weeks IIRC.

    AND would consider that we were LUCKY that, unlike many places such as much of California, we did NOT have power brownouts. Talk about your great leveler, a power outage during a heat wave.
    Air conditioning is usually non-existent in the UK as you probably know, which is making it extremely uncomfortable tonight. It's about 22 degrees Celsius at 2 in the morning. We have to put up with this for about 10 to 20 nights each year, (not as hot as this though, more like above 15 degrees).
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    edited July 2022
    Edit
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,765
    New thread.
This discussion has been closed.