politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

17% say BREXIT’s made life better – 45% say worse – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,162
edited July 2022 in General
image17% say BREXIT’s made life better – 45% say worse – politicalbetting.com

Ipsos has a reputation for developing the most interesting questions on which to poll and this late survey is no exception. Six years after the referendum has BREXIT made life better or worse?

Read the full story here

«13456

Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    I think yet another Brexit thread might be my cue. Night all.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited June 2022
    FPT - move the following PB motion (in more than one sense perhaps):

    That Leon's next travel assignment be to visit - Kaliningrad!

    THIS is his golden (or leaden?) opportunity to beat the cruise ships AND scoop Rick Steves.

    https://community.ricksteves.com/travel-forum/estonia/kaliningrad
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    stodge said:

    Later evening all :)

    A propos my previous, my view is with everything else that has happened, I'm struggling to see whether leaving the EU has made the difference some claim. I read an earlier thread from a businessman who put the troubles of his family's company solely at the door of leaving the EU.

    My personal experience is the pandemic and the current war in the Ukraine were and are not insignificant events and would have impacted us adversely had we been inside the EU.

    I think the current labour shortage is complex and has many causes and reasons.

    Timing, the chap pointed out, didn't match covid and war.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,627
    It’s interesting that the number of remain voters who think it’s had a positive effect has doubled.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Bridges_of_Königsberg

    The city of Königsberg in Prussia (now Kaliningrad, Russia) was set on both sides of the Pregel River, and included two large islands—Kneiphof and Lomse—which were connected to each other, and to the two mainland portions of the city, by seven bridges. The problem was to devise a walk through the city that would cross each of those bridges once and only once.
    image
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    edited June 2022
    From a previous thread:

    I had an unexpected Brexit benefit this week. I ordered some new walking boots from the EU (not in my size in UK stock) and paid less than the UK price as no VAT was charged on the invoice, as outside the EU. I expected 20% VAT and perhaps customs duty, but none was asked for on delivery. Presumably because even after 6 years of foreknowledge our government lets things come in un-inspected, and uncharged. A boon for EU exporters.

    The £50 saving has gone to the same website, for some sandals and other bits. Sorry about that trade deficit Rishi, but cost of living and all that...

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    stodge said:

    Later evening all :)

    A propos my previous, my view is with everything else that has happened, I'm struggling to see whether leaving the EU has made the difference some claim. I read an earlier thread from a businessman who put the troubles of his family's company solely at the door of leaving the EU.

    My personal experience is the pandemic and the current war in the Ukraine were and are not insignificant events and would have impacted us adversely had we been inside the EU.

    I think the current labour shortage is complex and has many causes and reasons.

    Spot on.

    There will undoubtedly have been some winners from Brexit, and some losers.

    But compared to the impacts of Covid and the (Putin-driven) cost of living crisis, Brexit is an afterthought.

    Let's give it five years of (hopefully) normality, and let's see where we are. Could be better, could be worse, but the reality is that right now, we know nothing.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited June 2022
    williamglenn said:

    It’s interesting that the number of remain voters who think it’s had a positive effect has doubled.

    Like that you're a glass-half-full kind of guy!

    Yet another example of polarization? With the center clearly not holding, but instead being squeezed at both ends.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    It’s all rather dull and academic, because the chances of us returning to the EU in the foreseeable future are nil.

    I find Brexit one of the most boring topics on Earth these days. It’s happened. We lost. It was saddening. Most of us eventually got over it. Life goes on.

    It’s rather like covid, in that some people simply cannot seemingly bear to accept it as a reality of normal life.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958
    williamglenn said:

    It’s interesting that the number of remain voters who think it’s had a positive effect has doubled.

    Is it as interesting that the number of Leave voters who think it's made things worse has more than doubled?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    williamglenn said:

    It’s interesting that the number of remain voters who think it’s had a positive effect has doubled.

    If I read the tables right, it has gone from 18 people to 35, out of a panel of just over 1,000 people - and I think it's different people being surveyed, so the error bars are huge.

    *Still*, it's encouraging to see.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    Anabobazina said:

    It’s all rather dull and academic, because the chances of us returning to the EU in the foreseeable future are nil.

    I find Brexit one of the most boring topics on Earth these days. It’s happened. We lost. It was saddening. Most of us eventually got over it. Life goes on.

    It’s rather like covid, in that some people simply cannot seemingly bear to accept it as a reality of normal life.

    And like covid in that some peoplke pretend it's about as dangerous as a tepid glass of water and a walk in the park.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958
    Foxy said:

    From a previous thread:

    I had an unexpected Brexit benefit this week. I ordered some new walking boots from the EU (not in my size in UK stock) and paid less than the UK price as no VAT was charged on the invoice, as outside the EU. I expected 20% VAT and perhaps customs duty, but none was asked for on delivery. Presumably because even after 6 years of foreknowledge our government lets things come in un-inspected, and uncharged. A boon for EU exporters.

    The £50 saving has gone to the same website, for some sandals and other bits. Sorry about that trade deficit Rishi, but cost of living and all that...

    I've noticed that on a couple of things, assumed it was sloppiness. Is this HMG policy now?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Later evening all :)

    A propos my previous, my view is with everything else that has happened, I'm struggling to see whether leaving the EU has made the difference some claim. I read an earlier thread from a businessman who put the troubles of his family's company solely at the door of leaving the EU.

    My personal experience is the pandemic and the current war in the Ukraine were and are not insignificant events and would have impacted us adversely had we been inside the EU.

    I think the current labour shortage is complex and has many causes and reasons.

    Spot on.

    There will undoubtedly have been some winners from Brexit, and some losers.

    But compared to the impacts of Covid and the (Putin-driven) cost of living crisis, Brexit is an afterthought.

    Let's give it five years of (hopefully) normality, and let's see where we are. Could be better, could be worse, but the reality is that right now, we know nothing.
    In addition to, rather than compared to.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    Theuniondivvie said:

    williamglenn said:

    It’s interesting that the number of remain voters who think it’s had a positive effect has doubled.

    Is it as interesting that the number of Leave voters who think it's made things worse has more than doubled?
    And that margin completely swamps the tiny element Anabob focusses on.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    The question and underlying issues absolutely cry out for qualitative not quantitative analysis of people's judgements about this.

    Not 'Yes' or 'No', but what do you think and why, with examples.

    Only then can you begin to detach Brexit issues from Covid, global, Ukraine, aching joints, weather, the state of the English novel, Boris's social life, etc ones.

    Let me, from my rural lair, make a guess. Approx 100% of farmers will answer 'Worse'. Exactly the same % as would have answered 'Worse' about being in the EU when we were.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Have a bit more background on Pincher situation from govt source
    1/ Source tells me: “Pincher was drunk & groped people in front of other people at Carlton club. He apologies & is mortified”
    2/ Told of the two men involved - one is an MP & 2nd might be too. Source not sure 1/
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1542614757978554369
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited June 2022
    Anabobazina said:

    It’s all rather dull and academic, because the chances of us returning to the EU in the foreseeable future are nil.

    I find Brexit one of the most boring topics on Earth these days. It’s happened. We lost. It was saddening. Most of us eventually got over it. Life goes on.

    It’s rather like covid, in that some people simply cannot seemingly bear to accept it as a reality of normal life.

    As a matter of interest, which way did you vote ?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    FPT there was a discussion of sunshine hours.

    The USA has way more than Europe across the year because a. the North Atlantic drift brings higher humidity to the West coast, v. the Sierras and Rockies eat up the winter moisture before air masses hit the Midwest.

    But… the differential is mainly in winter. Europe has extremely cloudy winters including in the Med because we have a vast body of soupy water to our West, no barrier mountain range, and lots of low lying damp land that gets pitiful sunshine hours from November to March.

    In summer much of Southern Europe compares very well with much of the US. They get convective cloud, the Med generally doesn’t, though it gets more high cloud.

    But the worst is East Asia - Eastern China, Japan and Korea. Beautiful blue sky in winter, overcast and oppressive in summer.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Foxy said:

    From a previous thread:

    I had an unexpected Brexit benefit this week. I ordered some new walking boots from the EU (not in my size in UK stock) and paid less than the UK price as no VAT was charged on the invoice, as outside the EU. I expected 20% VAT and perhaps customs duty, but none was asked for on delivery. Presumably because even after 6 years of foreknowledge our government lets things come in un-inspected, and uncharged. A boon for EU exporters.

    The £50 saving has gone to the same website, for some sandals and other bits. Sorry about that trade deficit Rishi, but cost of living and all that...

    I've noticed that on a couple of things, assumed it was sloppiness. Is this HMG policy now?
    Sir Robert Walpole famously ordered HM's customs to crack down on smuggling in one letter, while quizzing his wine merchant in another re: arrival of his next shipment of smuggled French claret.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,357
    williamglenn said:

    It’s interesting that the number of remain voters who think it’s had a positive effect has doubled.

    Yes, I thought that was interesting too. I see it as a sign that there was the potential for the country to be united around Brexit in the aftermath of the referendum. Competent political leadership could have healed some of the divisions over Brexit, and gained the "loser's consent" that Alastair Meeks often talked about. Instead we've had very divisive leadership from May and Johnson, that has sought to use the Brexit divisions for partisan advantage, and particularly in May's case, completely failed to tell a story about how the conflicting desires of Remain and Leave voters could be reconciled.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Obvious question is whether the police get involved? Govt source view: “Those alleged victims went to the whips, rather than the police, on the basis that Pincher may not be best fit to be in charge”. Friends of Pincher tell me he’s vulnerable 2/
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1542615869053976580
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Good for Hamilton.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jun/30/bernie-ecclestone-id-take-a-bullet-for-putin-formula-one-good-morning-britain-interview
    … The seven-time F1 world champion urged broadcasters to shun the 91-year-old over his comments that appeared to downplay the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, warning that such remarks will “put us back decades”.

    Hamilton argued that Ecclestone was an “older voice” who no longer represented the sport after the latter said he would “take a bullet” for the Russian president and described him as “a first-class person”.

    “We don’t need any more of it, to hear from someone that believes in the war, and the displacement of people and killing of people, and supporting that person [Putin] is beyond me,” the Mercedes driver said.…
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Nigelb said:

    Good for Hamilton.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jun/30/bernie-ecclestone-id-take-a-bullet-for-putin-formula-one-good-morning-britain-interview
    … The seven-time F1 world champion urged broadcasters to shun the 91-year-old over his comments that appeared to downplay the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, warning that such remarks will “put us back decades”.

    Hamilton argued that Ecclestone was an “older voice” who no longer represented the sport after the latter said he would “take a bullet” for the Russian president and described him as “a first-class person”.

    “We don’t need any more of it, to hear from someone that believes in the war, and the displacement of people and killing of people, and supporting that person [Putin] is beyond me,” the Mercedes driver said.…

    Always my favourite of the founding fathers and glad to see he hasn't lost his touch.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Foxy said:

    From a previous thread:

    I had an unexpected Brexit benefit this week. I ordered some new walking boots from the EU (not in my size in UK stock) and paid less than the UK price as no VAT was charged on the invoice, as outside the EU. I expected 20% VAT and perhaps customs duty, but none was asked for on delivery. Presumably because even after 6 years of foreknowledge our government lets things come in un-inspected, and uncharged. A boon for EU exporters.

    The £50 saving has gone to the same website, for some sandals and other bits. Sorry about that trade deficit Rishi, but cost of living and all that...

    You're a LibDem, so the sandals go without saying.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    williamglenn said:

    It’s interesting that the number of remain voters who think it’s had a positive effect has doubled.

    Up 5%, while the percentage of Remain voters thinking it has been negative is up 19% and the number of Leave voters negative is up 12%.

    Far fewer in any category are in the undecided, and the momentum is to the negatives, anything else is a wilful distortion.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Have a bit more background on Pincher situation from govt source
    1/ Source tells me: “Pincher was drunk & groped people in front of other people at Carlton club. He apologies & is mortified”
    2/ Told of the two men involved - one is an MP & 2nd might be too. Source not sure 1/
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1542614757978554369

    Good grief!
    They've taken to sexually assaulting each other now?
    Does a switch flick after 12 years of Tory government and they lose all semblance of libido control?
    12 years of Tory Mis-rule.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    edited June 2022
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Foxy said:

    From a previous thread:

    I had an unexpected Brexit benefit this week. I ordered some new walking boots from the EU (not in my size in UK stock) and paid less than the UK price as no VAT was charged on the invoice, as outside the EU. I expected 20% VAT and perhaps customs duty, but none was asked for on delivery. Presumably because even after 6 years of foreknowledge our government lets things come in un-inspected, and uncharged. A boon for EU exporters.

    The £50 saving has gone to the same website, for some sandals and other bits. Sorry about that trade deficit Rishi, but cost of living and all that...

    I've noticed that on a couple of things, assumed it was sloppiness. Is this HMG policy now?
    Difficilt to tell. But in my experience of ordering from Nippon things were quite sloppy, then tightened about a decade ago about the time of the big scandals of HMRC being taken out to dinner and letting certain big firms off paying their owed tax - so instead we oiks had to pay for it invariably. Then at Brexit things got vastly slower and slowerwith stuff piling up in some PO warehouse near Brum. HMRC obvs run off their feet, totally astounded by the increase in work.

    I've noticed that recent orders have been much faster but I've changed to Fedex who don't seem to charge the £10/£16 blackmail, sorry processing charge, per parcel, and are much quicker anyway. My impression is however that the customs aren't even trying nowadays.

    Take back control, my sharny arse.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    Foxy said:

    williamglenn said:

    It’s interesting that the number of remain voters who think it’s had a positive effect has doubled.

    Up 5%, while the percentage of Remain voters thinking it has been negative is up 19% and the number of Leave voters negative is up 12%.

    Far fewer in any category are in the undecided, and the momentum is to the negatives, anything else is a wilful distortion.

    It’s becoming the consensus. Whether that means there will ever be a consensus for rejoin is another matter.

    The worry is that public opinion becomes “Brexit was a mistake, but we made our bed so we’ll just have to suffer”. Admirable stoicism but not really very constructive.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Have a bit more background on Pincher situation from govt source
    1/ Source tells me: “Pincher was drunk & groped people in front of other people at Carlton club. He apologies & is mortified”
    2/ Told of the two men involved - one is an MP & 2nd might be too. Source not sure 1/
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1542614757978554369

    Good grief!
    They've taken to sexually assaulting each other now?
    Does a switch flick after 12 years of Tory government and they lose all semblance of libido control?
    12 years of Tory Mis-rule.
    Has it bedded down yet, any more than Brexit?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,661
    Starting to think we might get a Labour government. 😀🌹
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    From a previous thread:

    I had an unexpected Brexit benefit this week. I ordered some new walking boots from the EU (not in my size in UK stock) and paid less than the UK price as no VAT was charged on the invoice, as outside the EU. I expected 20% VAT and perhaps customs duty, but none was asked for on delivery. Presumably because even after 6 years of foreknowledge our government lets things come in un-inspected, and uncharged. A boon for EU exporters.

    The £50 saving has gone to the same website, for some sandals and other bits. Sorry about that trade deficit Rishi, but cost of living and all that...

    You're a LibDem, so the sandals go without saying.
    Obviously the other bits were socks...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Have a bit more background on Pincher situation from govt source
    1/ Source tells me: “Pincher was drunk & groped people in front of other people at Carlton club. He apologies & is mortified”
    2/ Told of the two men involved - one is an MP & 2nd might be too. Source not sure 1/
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1542614757978554369

    Good grief!
    They've taken to sexually assaulting each other now?
    Does a switch flick after 12 years of Tory government and they lose all semblance of libido control?
    As to 1st sentence, reckon Great British Public will approve, in about same way that Chicago residents were NOT too discombobulated by news that a city alderman had been murdered.

    On grounds that, what alderman and crooks do to each other, that's THEIR business; better they do it to each other, than to otherwise innocent bystanders.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    edited June 2022
    FPT:

    Tamworth is one of those Midlands bits that has swung increasingly blue - a pro Tory swing across boundary changes at every election since 1996. 1996 was the SE Staffordshire by- election, recently quoted for the 22% Con-Lab swing which Wakefield couldn't match, so guess there was a lot of swing to the Tories to be had, but still, to end up in a place where Labour would need a similarly huge swing to even edge it is quite something.

    In fact, Labour would need a 21.2% just shy of SEStaffs style swing to take it, and that would be the task, I'm pretty sure this couldn't be an LD from nowhere one.

    Of note that Tamworth as a town had been quite bellweathery for a while - matching the government of the day since 1964, except for the 6 months in 1974 and from the by-election in 96 to Blair's win. Was Labour through 50-64 (as Lichfield & Tamworth), not sure what the 45-50 constituency was, but guessing it was Labour then.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    williamglenn said:

    It’s interesting that the number of remain voters who think it’s had a positive effect has doubled.

    Like that you're a glass-half-full kind of guy!

    Yet another example of polarization? With the center clearly not holding, but instead being squeezed at both ends.
    As only 10% of Remain voters have a positive view of Brexit, and 70% negative, I would suggest that glass is not half full, so much as 12.5% full.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    edited June 2022
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Have a bit more background on Pincher situation from govt source
    1/ Source tells me: “Pincher was drunk & groped people in front of other people at Carlton club. He apologies & is mortified”
    2/ Told of the two men involved - one is an MP & 2nd might be too. Source not sure 1/
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1542614757978554369

    Good grief!
    They've taken to sexually assaulting each other now?
    Does a switch flick after 12 years of Tory government and they lose all semblance of libido control?
    As to 1st sentence, reckon Great British Public will approve, in about same way that Chicago residents were NOT too discombobulated by news that a city alderman had been murdered.

    On grounds that, what alderman and crooks do to each other, that's THEIR business; better they do it to each other, than to otherwise innocent bystanders.
    Presumably it's blue on blue: blue movie fodder. Much safer than molesting the MPs of other parties. Which does not go down well. And is extremely dangerous. One such recipient of unwanted attentions waited till the Tory MP was committed as the candidate for a GE, and then revived the matter with perfect timing ...
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,036
    edited June 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Later evening all :)

    A propos my previous, my view is with everything else that has happened, I'm struggling to see whether leaving the EU has made the difference some claim. I read an earlier thread from a businessman who put the troubles of his family's company solely at the door of leaving the EU.

    My personal experience is the pandemic and the current war in the Ukraine were and are not insignificant events and would have impacted us adversely had we been inside the EU.

    I think the current labour shortage is complex and has many causes and reasons.

    Spot on.

    There will undoubtedly have been some winners from Brexit, and some losers.

    But compared to the impacts of Covid and the (Putin-driven) cost of living crisis, Brexit is an afterthought.

    Let's give it five years of (hopefully) normality, and let's see where we are. Could be better, could be worse, but the reality is that right now, we know nothing.
    Actually, we do know some things. And some colleagues (from both sides of the debate) and I are going to submit some analysis next month which is likely to show (subject to revision) that it has cost about 1-1.5% of GDP (ongoing), or about one year's economic growth, almost entirely due to trade friction. And if the government maximises the potential benefits through deregulation, etc., there could be no cost or even a slight benefit.

    Of course, that's to an academic journal, and they're notoriously slow, so it'll probably be published, if at all, in around 2037 or so.

    And even if/when it is published, it'll probably get no attention because its findings are so unspectacular.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Carnyx said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    williamglenn said:

    It’s interesting that the number of remain voters who think it’s had a positive effect has doubled.

    Is it as interesting that the number of Leave voters who think it's made things worse has more than doubled?
    And that margin completely swamps the tiny element Anabob focusses on.
    ? I think you are confusing me someone else. I haven’t made any comment about the margins!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    One possible destination for Leon in Kaliningrad Oblast is the city of Sovetsk aka Tilsit, site of the raft moored in middle of Neman River in 1807 for famous meeting between Emperors Napoleon & Alexander I (with King & Queen of Prussia tagging along).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovetsk,_Kaliningrad_Oblast
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    williamglenn said:

    It’s interesting that the number of remain voters who think it’s had a positive effect has doubled.

    Up 5%, while the percentage of Remain voters thinking it has been negative is up 19% and the number of Leave voters negative is up 12%.

    Far fewer in any category are in the undecided, and the momentum is to the negatives, anything else is a wilful distortion.

    It’s becoming the consensus. Whether that means there will ever be a consensus for rejoin is another matter.

    The worry is that public opinion becomes “Brexit was a mistake, but we made our bed so we’ll just have to suffer”. Admirable stoicism but not really very constructive.
    While I am glad to see my opinion of Brexit is shared by such a growing plurality of Britons it is hard to be sure of what is the cart and what is the horse.

    Is Brexit so despised because it is Tory policy, or are the Tories so despised because they are the party of Brexit. A bit of both IMO.

    No party (other than SF and SNP) will be campaigning to Rejoin at the next GE, so we will have 5 more years for opinion against Brexit to strengthen before Rejoin is an option for English voters. (Have the Greens expressed a European policy yet?)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:

    Tamworth is one of those Midlands bits that has swung increasingly blue - a pro Tory swing across boundary changes at every election since 1996. 1996 was the SE Staffordshire by- election, recently quoted for the 22% Con-Lab swing which Wakefield couldn't match, so guess there was a lot of swing to the Tories to be had, but still, to end up in a place where Labour would need a similarly huge swing to even edge it is quite something.

    In fact, Labour would need a 21.2% just shy of SEStaffs style swing to take it, and that would be the task, I'm pretty sure this couldn't be an LD from nowhere one.

    Of note that Tamworth as a town had been quite bellweathery for a while - matching the government of the day since 1964, except for the 6 months in 1974 and from the by-election in 96 to Blair's win. Was Labour through 50-64 (as Lichfield & Tamworth), not sure what the 45-50 constituency was, but guessing it was Labour then.

    Abolished 1945. Recreated 1997
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    Anabobazina said:

    Carnyx said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    williamglenn said:

    It’s interesting that the number of remain voters who think it’s had a positive effect has doubled.

    Is it as interesting that the number of Leave voters who think it's made things worse has more than doubled?
    And that margin completely swamps the tiny element Anabob focusses on.
    ? I think you are confusing me someone else. I haven’t made any comment about the margins!
    Yep, sorry, not clear. More (a bit) leave voters have shifted to thinking Brexit is crap than the total number of remain voters who think it is okay.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited June 2022
    stodge said:

    Later evening all :)

    A propos my previous, my view is with everything else that has happened, I'm struggling to see whether leaving the EU has made the difference some claim. I read an earlier thread from a businessman who put the troubles of his family's company solely at the door of leaving the EU.

    My personal experience is the pandemic and the current war in the Ukraine were and are not insignificant events and would have impacted us adversely had we been inside the EU.

    I think the current labour shortage is complex and has many causes and reasons.

    The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the pandemic are things that happened to people. I don't think anyone would expect to see any upsides in those.

    But if you actually vote for something you should not only expect to see at least some upside. You should expect the positives to outweigh the negatives.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    williamglenn said:

    It’s interesting that the number of remain voters who think it’s had a positive effect has doubled.

    Up 5%, while the percentage of Remain voters thinking it has been negative is up 19% and the number of Leave voters negative is up 12%.

    Far fewer in any category are in the undecided, and the momentum is to the negatives, anything else is a wilful distortion.

    It’s becoming the consensus. Whether that means there will ever be a consensus for rejoin is another matter.

    The worry is that public opinion becomes “Brexit was a mistake, but we made our bed so we’ll just have to suffer”. Admirable stoicism but not really very constructive.
    While I am glad to see my opinion of Brexit is shared by such a growing plurality of Britons it is hard to be sure of what is the cart and what is the horse.

    Is Brexit so despised because it is Tory policy, or are the Tories so despised because they are the party of Brexit. A bit of both IMO.

    No party (other than SF and SNP) will be campaigning to Rejoin at the next GE, so we will have 5 more years for opinion against Brexit to strengthen before Rejoin is an option for English voters. (Have the Greens expressed a European policy yet?)
    PC too are pro-EU? (pedantic but significant in Wales)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Nigelb said:

    Anabobazina said:

    It’s all rather dull and academic, because the chances of us returning to the EU in the foreseeable future are nil.

    I find Brexit one of the most boring topics on Earth these days. It’s happened. We lost. It was saddening. Most of us eventually got over it. Life goes on.

    It’s rather like covid, in that some people simply cannot seemingly bear to accept it as a reality of normal life.

    As a matter of interest, which way did you vote ?
    Remain, as my post indicates. I was stridently Remain and think leaving the EU was stupid, self-damaging and pointless. But, it’s happened, and we aren’t going back. So endlessly reprising the issue is also stupid, self-damaging and pointless.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    This is a bit of a shame, given his attitude to the major record labels back in the day.

    Universal Music Group Becomes Permanent Home Of Frank Zappa’s Catalog
    Under the new agreement, UMPG also acquires Zappa’s complete publishing catalog.
    https://www.udiscovermusic.com/news/universal-music-group-frank-zappa-catalog/
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Have a bit more background on Pincher situation from govt source
    1/ Source tells me: “Pincher was drunk & groped people in front of other people at Carlton club. He apologies & is mortified”
    2/ Told of the two men involved - one is an MP & 2nd might be too. Source not sure 1/
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1542614757978554369

    Good grief!
    They've taken to sexually assaulting each other now?
    Does a switch flick after 12 years of Tory government and they lose all semblance of libido control?
    "They would, wouldn't they?"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    One possible destination for Leon in Kaliningrad Oblast is the city of Sovetsk aka Tilsit, site of the raft moored in middle of Neman River in 1807 for famous meeting between Emperors Napoleon & Alexander I (with King & Queen of Prussia tagging along).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovetsk,_Kaliningrad_Oblast

    Hitler "Wolf's Lair" HQ where he spent most of the war is just a short trip into Poland. Crossing that border might be a bit tricky though at present.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    edited June 2022
    Prospect of world recession wipes 13 trillion dollars off markets and no mention of brexit would you believe

    The worst start ever recorded

    This crisis must be tanking peoples pension pots
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    williamglenn said:

    It’s interesting that the number of remain voters who think it’s had a positive effect has doubled.

    Up 5%, while the percentage of Remain voters thinking it has been negative is up 19% and the number of Leave voters negative is up 12%.

    Far fewer in any category are in the undecided, and the momentum is to the negatives, anything else is a wilful distortion.

    It’s becoming the consensus. Whether that means there will ever be a consensus for rejoin is another matter.

    The worry is that public opinion becomes “Brexit was a mistake, but we made our bed so we’ll just have to suffer”. Admirable stoicism but not really very constructive.
    While I am glad to see my opinion of Brexit is shared by such a growing plurality of Britons it is hard to be sure of what is the cart and what is the horse.

    Is Brexit so despised because it is Tory policy, or are the Tories so despised because they are the party of Brexit. A bit of both IMO.

    No party (other than SF and SNP) will be campaigning to Rejoin at the next GE, so we will have 5 more years for opinion against Brexit to strengthen before Rejoin is an option for English voters. (Have the Greens expressed a European policy yet?)
    PC too are pro-EU? (pedantic but significant in Wales)
    Are they proposing in their manifesto to Rejoin though?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,661
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Prospect of world recession wipes 13 trillion off markets and no mention of brexit would you believe

    This crisis must be tanking peoples pension pots

    We took back control, so all is well.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Foxy said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    One possible destination for Leon in Kaliningrad Oblast is the city of Sovetsk aka Tilsit, site of the raft moored in middle of Neman River in 1807 for famous meeting between Emperors Napoleon & Alexander I (with King & Queen of Prussia tagging along).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovetsk,_Kaliningrad_Oblast

    Hitler "Wolf's Lair" HQ where he spent most of the war is just a short trip into Poland. Crossing that border might be a bit tricky though at present.
    Believe that was a bit further south, in what's now Poland ("Leon" visited IIRC).

    But point re: Sovetsk is well taken. Though fab deals available there now for truly intrepid travelers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Anabobazina said:

    Nigelb said:

    Anabobazina said:

    It’s all rather dull and academic, because the chances of us returning to the EU in the foreseeable future are nil.

    I find Brexit one of the most boring topics on Earth these days. It’s happened. We lost. It was saddening. Most of us eventually got over it. Life goes on.

    It’s rather like covid, in that some people simply cannot seemingly bear to accept it as a reality of normal life.

    As a matter of interest, which way did you vote ?
    Remain, as my post indicates. I was stridently Remain and think leaving the EU was stupid, self-damaging and pointless. But, it’s happened, and we aren’t going back. So endlessly reprising the issue is also stupid, self-damaging and pointless.
    Apologies for the tongue in cheek question,
    It was supposed to be a joke. :smile:
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    williamglenn said:

    It’s interesting that the number of remain voters who think it’s had a positive effect has doubled.

    Up 5%, while the percentage of Remain voters thinking it has been negative is up 19% and the number of Leave voters negative is up 12%.

    Far fewer in any category are in the undecided, and the momentum is to the negatives, anything else is a wilful distortion.

    It’s becoming the consensus. Whether that means there will ever be a consensus for rejoin is another matter.

    The worry is that public opinion becomes “Brexit was a mistake, but we made our bed so we’ll just have to suffer”. Admirable stoicism but not really very constructive.
    While I am glad to see my opinion of Brexit is shared by such a growing plurality of Britons it is hard to be sure of what is the cart and what is the horse.

    Is Brexit so despised because it is Tory policy, or are the Tories so despised because they are the party of Brexit. A bit of both IMO.

    No party (other than SF and SNP) will be campaigning to Rejoin at the next GE, so we will have 5 more years for opinion against Brexit to strengthen before Rejoin is an option for English voters. (Have the Greens expressed a European policy yet?)
    PC too are pro-EU? (pedantic but significant in Wales)
    Are they proposing in their manifesto to Rejoin though?
    *checks, on reflection* ... yes, or at least what seems to be the manifesto in their website. Seems reasonably positive, though the referendum proviso is sensible as the balance of opinion is not so clar as in Scotland.

    https://www.partyof.wales/cydberthynas_ue_relationship_eu

    'Following Brexit the prospects of the UK rejoining the EU in the medium term are remote. Nevertheless, we will make the case for the advantages for Wales and the UK as a whole, of closer regulatory alignment with the EU.

    Plaid Cymru’s longer-term aspiration is for an independent Wales to join the European Union, subject to a future referendum after the achievement of independence.'
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT:

    Tamworth is one of those Midlands bits that has swung increasingly blue - a pro Tory swing across boundary changes at every election since 1996. 1996 was the SE Staffordshire by- election, recently quoted for the 22% Con-Lab swing which Wakefield couldn't match, so guess there was a lot of swing to the Tories to be had, but still, to end up in a place where Labour would need a similarly huge swing to even edge it is quite something.

    In fact, Labour would need a 21.2% just shy of SEStaffs style swing to take it, and that would be the task, I'm pretty sure this couldn't be an LD from nowhere one.

    Of note that Tamworth as a town had been quite bellweathery for a while - matching the government of the day since 1964, except for the 6 months in 1974 and from the by-election in 96 to Blair's win. Was Labour through 50-64 (as Lichfield & Tamworth), not sure what the 45-50 constituency was, but guessing it was Labour then.

    Abolished 1945. Recreated 1997
    Yes, I worked through the predecessor seats covering the town of Tamworth - SE Staffordshire and Lichfield&Tamworth, but L&T doesn't name a predecessor, so there's a bit of a Wiki gap between the abolition of the original Tamworth seat in1945 and the appearance of L&T for the 1950 GE.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Have a bit more background on Pincher situation from govt source
    1/ Source tells me: “Pincher was drunk & groped people in front of other people at Carlton club. He apologies & is mortified”
    2/ Told of the two men involved - one is an MP & 2nd might be too. Source not sure 1/
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1542614757978554369

    Good grief!
    They've taken to sexually assaulting each other now?
    Does a switch flick after 12 years of Tory government and they lose all semblance of libido control?
    12 years of Tory Mis-rule.
    According to Wiki, he's been accused of groping two peopl in the private members area. Is that what they call it now?
    Groping Members' privates in private Members' area. Sound quite logical. Also (potentially) more sanitary.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Carnyx said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Carnyx said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    williamglenn said:

    It’s interesting that the number of remain voters who think it’s had a positive effect has doubled.

    Is it as interesting that the number of Leave voters who think it's made things worse has more than doubled?
    And that margin completely swamps the tiny element Anabob focusses on.
    ? I think you are confusing me someone else. I haven’t made any comment about the margins!
    Yep, sorry, not clear. More (a bit) leave voters have shifted to thinking Brexit is crap than the total number of remain voters who think it is okay.
    I don’t think it’s okay at all. I think it’s shit. But it’s a reality that we have to get used to: water under the bridge.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    Scott_xP said:

    Have a bit more background on Pincher situation from govt source
    1/ Source tells me: “Pincher was drunk & groped people in front of other people at Carlton club. He apologies & is mortified”
    2/ Told of the two men involved - one is an MP & 2nd might be too. Source not sure 1/
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1542614757978554369

    He's called Pincher? :lol:
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Nigelb said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Nigelb said:

    Anabobazina said:

    It’s all rather dull and academic, because the chances of us returning to the EU in the foreseeable future are nil.

    I find Brexit one of the most boring topics on Earth these days. It’s happened. We lost. It was saddening. Most of us eventually got over it. Life goes on.

    It’s rather like covid, in that some people simply cannot seemingly bear to accept it as a reality of normal life.

    As a matter of interest, which way did you vote ?
    Remain, as my post indicates. I was stridently Remain and think leaving the EU was stupid, self-damaging and pointless. But, it’s happened, and we aren’t going back. So endlessly reprising the issue is also stupid, self-damaging and pointless.
    Apologies for the tongue in cheek question,
    It was supposed to be a joke. :smile:
    Ah okay, sorry, I guess Internet Rule XX was in play re: irony!

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Fishing said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Later evening all :)

    A propos my previous, my view is with everything else that has happened, I'm struggling to see whether leaving the EU has made the difference some claim. I read an earlier thread from a businessman who put the troubles of his family's company solely at the door of leaving the EU.

    My personal experience is the pandemic and the current war in the Ukraine were and are not insignificant events and would have impacted us adversely had we been inside the EU.

    I think the current labour shortage is complex and has many causes and reasons.

    Spot on.

    There will undoubtedly have been some winners from Brexit, and some losers.

    But compared to the impacts of Covid and the (Putin-driven) cost of living crisis, Brexit is an afterthought.

    Let's give it five years of (hopefully) normality, and let's see where we are. Could be better, could be worse, but the reality is that right now, we know nothing.
    Actually, we do know some things. And some colleagues (from both sides of the debate) and I are going to submit some analysis next month which is likely to show (subject to revision) that it has cost about 1-1.5% of GDP (ongoing), or about one year's economic growth, almost entirely due to trade friction. And if the government maximises the potential benefits through deregulation, etc., there could be no cost or even a slight benefit.

    Of course, that's to an academic journal, and they're notoriously slow, so it'll probably be published, if at all, in around 2037 or so.

    And even if/when it is published, it'll probably get no attention because its findings are so unspectacular.
    Well, we'll see. Personally, I think that Covid and Commodities (the two Cs) so drench other effects, that managing to accurately measure "trade friction" is an exercise in futility.

    Ultimately there are lots of policy choices that will have impacts.

    Will immigration control be a benefit, in that the price of labour rises, boosting incomes and encouraging capital investment by investment? Or will it be a negative, because it discourages investment because the labour pool is smaller? I don't know. It could go either way.

    Will the UK's savings rate normalise because it is no longer a sink for savings across the EU? If it does, will that result in a painful rebalancing? Or can we ride it out gently? Or will inward flows of asset purchases continue to pay for our staggering current account deficit?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,218
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Have a bit more background on Pincher situation from govt source
    1/ Source tells me: “Pincher was drunk & groped people in front of other people at Carlton club. He apologies & is mortified”
    2/ Told of the two men involved - one is an MP & 2nd might be too. Source not sure 1/
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1542614757978554369

    He's called Pincher? :lol:
    After losing the MP for Hornytown as well.

    Have we stumbled out of reality into a Carry On script?

    Though for clarity, I would prefer it to be Don't Carry On, Boris.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    FF43 said:

    stodge said:

    Later evening all :)

    A propos my previous, my view is with everything else that has happened, I'm struggling to see whether leaving the EU has made the difference some claim. I read an earlier thread from a businessman who put the troubles of his family's company solely at the door of leaving the EU.

    My personal experience is the pandemic and the current war in the Ukraine were and are not insignificant events and would have impacted us adversely had we been inside the EU.

    I think the current labour shortage is complex and has many causes and reasons.

    The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the pandemic are things that happened to people. I don't think anyone would expect to see any upsides in those.

    But if you actually vote for something you should not only expect to see at least some upside. You should expect the positives to outweigh the negatives.
    There's an upside for India and China, they're swimming in cut price petrol.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Have a bit more background on Pincher situation from govt source
    1/ Source tells me: “Pincher was drunk & groped people in front of other people at Carlton club. He apologies & is mortified”
    2/ Told of the two men involved - one is an MP & 2nd might be too. Source not sure 1/
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1542614757978554369

    He's called Pincher? :lol:
    Chris Bottom Pincher.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Labour shortages will eventually have to be solved with more relaxed immigration rules but that will be via more liberal visas rather than anything to do with the EU, is my guess.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Stuartinromford said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Have a bit more background on Pincher situation from govt source
    1/ Source tells me: “Pincher was drunk & groped people in front of other people at Carlton club. He apologies & is mortified”
    2/ Told of the two men involved - one is an MP & 2nd might be too. Source not sure 1/
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1542614757978554369

    He's called Pincher? :lol:
    After losing the MP for Hornytown as well.

    Have we stumbled out of reality into a Carry On script?

    Though for clarity, I would prefer it to be Don't Carry On, Boris.
    Do NOT be too shocked IF you find yourself watching that on Netflix in a few years - starring Boris as Himself.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    edited June 2022
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Prospect of world recession wipes 13 trillion dollars off markets and no mention of brexit would you believe

    The worst start ever recorded

    This crisis must be tanking peoples pension pots

    It depends when they started saving. The NASDAQ has lost 30% in 6 months, but is still up on 2 years ago. American markets in particular had an unsustainable rise. British markets much less so, as they never had that peaky rise.

    My overseas portfolio is down 18% from its peak 6 months ago, my UK one is a bit more defensive and down about 12% over the same time. Indeed there are looking to be some good value equities now.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Have a bit more background on Pincher situation from govt source
    1/ Source tells me: “Pincher was drunk & groped people in front of other people at Carlton club. He apologies & is mortified”
    2/ Told of the two men involved - one is an MP & 2nd might be too. Source not sure 1/
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1542614757978554369

    He's called Pincher? :lol:
    "If you've got 'em by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow." - Chuck Colson
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Stuartinromford said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Have a bit more background on Pincher situation from govt source
    1/ Source tells me: “Pincher was drunk & groped people in front of other people at Carlton club. He apologies & is mortified”
    2/ Told of the two men involved - one is an MP & 2nd might be too. Source not sure 1/
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1542614757978554369

    He's called Pincher? :lol:
    After losing the MP for Hornytown as well.

    Have we stumbled out of reality into a Carry On script?

    Though for clarity, I would prefer it to be Don't Carry On, Boris.
    I was disappointed that constituency wasn't Tiverton & Axminster, then we could have had a T&A by-election.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Have a bit more background on Pincher situation from govt source
    1/ Source tells me: “Pincher was drunk & groped people in front of other people at Carlton club. He apologies & is mortified”
    2/ Told of the two men involved - one is an MP & 2nd might be too. Source not sure 1/
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1542614757978554369

    Good grief!
    They've taken to sexually assaulting each other now?
    Does a switch flick after 12 years of Tory government and they lose all semblance of libido control?
    lol - it does seem remarkably focused on one side of the House. Is it better or worse because it was in front of other people?

    I stayed at the Carlton years ago (guest of my Tory father), and remember with some embarassment taking a childish pleasure in leaving the Morning Star lying around. Not very guestly.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Have a bit more background on Pincher situation from govt source
    1/ Source tells me: “Pincher was drunk & groped people in front of other people at Carlton club. He apologies & is mortified”
    2/ Told of the two men involved - one is an MP & 2nd might be too. Source not sure 1/
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1542614757978554369

    Good grief!
    They've taken to sexually assaulting each other now?
    Does a switch flick after 12 years of Tory government and they lose all semblance of libido control?
    12 years of Tory Mis-rule.
    Time for some Labour Mister-rule. None of this nonsense from them about putting the memsahib in charge of the joystick.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    It isn't yet clear quite what happened in this sexual assault, but for a whip to be acting like this does show that we still have a long way to go in tackling entrenched abuses of power in Westminster, in particular of sexual abuse.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    If I were Keir Starmer the one thing I wouldn't want is a by-election in Tamworth.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    edited June 2022
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FF43 said:

    stodge said:

    Later evening all :)

    A propos my previous, my view is with everything else that has happened, I'm struggling to see whether leaving the EU has made the difference some claim. I read an earlier thread from a businessman who put the troubles of his family's company solely at the door of leaving the EU.

    My personal experience is the pandemic and the current war in the Ukraine were and are not insignificant events and would have impacted us adversely had we been inside the EU.

    I think the current labour shortage is complex and has many causes and reasons.

    The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the pandemic are things that happened to people. I don't think anyone would expect to see any upsides in those.

    But if you actually vote for something you should not only expect to see at least some upside. You should expect the positives to outweigh the negatives.
    There's an upside for India and China, they're swimming in cut price petrol.
    Yes, and cheap energy is a major plank in economic growth.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,715
    Blair: "labour must be electable" and LibDem voters must be comfortable with it in order for non tory to win next time.

    Newsnight
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Gift from the USA. Not exactly "Bundles for Britain". But feel free to recycle!

    https://upjoke.com/monica-lewinsky-jokes
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Andy_JS said:

    If I were Keir Starmer the one thing I wouldn't want is a by-election in Tamworth.

    Aren't there 50 odd cases of alleged sexual abuse by MPs ongoing? Not all will be established as proven, but not sure this one should be singled out for a by-election.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,715
    Blair really banging the point that Tory-Libdem swing voters must feel comfortable with the possibility that voting Liberal to get rid of their local tory mp might well mean a Lab government. They must feel safe with that Lab govenment
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Tonight's by-elections preview from Andrew Teale.

    https://medium.com/britainelects/previewing-super-thursday-30th-jun-2022-676c33b49f2c
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,715
    Nigelb said:

    Today marks the end of what is surely one of the worst terms in #SCOTUS history. Guns and prayer and abortion got most of the attention. But that's not all the Court did. Here are just some of the Court's bad decisions…
    https://twitter.com/5thCircAppeals/status/1542522257511026689

    Rivas-Villegas -- SCOTUS reversed the lower court to give a cop qualified immunity for using excessive force
    Tahlequah v. Bond -- SCOTUS reversed the lower court to give a cop qualified immunity for killing a man
    Shoop v. Twyford -- SCOTUS made it harder to get habeas relief
    Brown v. Davenport -- SCOTUS made it harder to get habeas relief
    Shinn v. Ramirez -- SCOTUS made it harder to get habeas relief
    Zubaydah -- SCOTUS allowed the Govt to withhold information about torture on CIA black sites
    Vaello-Madero -- SCOTUS denied SS benefits to residents of Puerto Rico
    Cummings -- SCOTUS disallowed recovery for emotional-distress damages in civil rights lawsuits
    Patel -- SCOTUS stripped federal courts of jurisdiction to review fact issues in immigration proceedings
    Biden v. Missouri -- SCOTUS blocked a federal vaccine mandate
    Garland v. Gonzalez -- SCOTUS denied long-detained immigrants' access to a bond hearing
    Johnson v. Arteaga-Martinez -- SCOTUS denied long-detained immigrants' access to a bond hearing
    FEC v. Ted Cruz -- SCOTUS struck down campaign finance restrictions to enable Ted Cruz to pay himself back for loans he made to his own campaign (from donations post election)
    Egbert v. Boule -- SCOTUS further limited a person's ability to sue federal officers (Bivens actions)
    Vega v. Tekah -- SCOTUS weakened enforcement of Miranda rights
    Carson v. Makin -- SCOTUS undermined the Establishment Clause, forcing states to fund private religious schools
    Kennedy v. Bremerton Sch. Dist. -- SCOTUS undermined the Establishment Clause, allowing football coach to have public/publicized Christian prayers at football games
    Denezpi -- SCOTUS recognized tribal sovereignty just enough to allow an Indian defendant to be prosecuted twice for the same crime (no double jeopardy), then...
    Castro-Huerta -- SCOTUS undermined tribal sovereignty by making tribal land "part of state" and allowing state to exercise jurisdiction on tribal land
    Bruen -- SCOTUS struck down NY's 100yo restriction on concealed carry to expand 2A and limit gun restrictions
    U.S. v. Texas -- SCOTUS allowed Texas's "bounty hunter" antiabortion law to go into effect
    Dobbs -- SCOTUS overruled Roe & Casey, eliminating the federal right to abortion and enabling severe (life-threatening) restrictions on abortion to go into effect
    West Virginia v. EPA -- SCOTUS undermined the EPA's ability to regulate emissions and fight global warming

    Note, shadow docket decisions - with no published reasons - not included in above list.

    Trump's judges doing their job.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Andy_JS said:

    If I were Keir Starmer the one thing I wouldn't want is a by-election in Tamworth.

    Cracking opportunity to publish a manifesto, though….
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,661
    🔶+🌹>🌳
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    rottenborough said:

    Blair really banging the point that Tory-Libdem swing voters must feel comfortable with the possibility that voting Liberal to get rid of their local tory mp might well mean a Lab government. They must feel safe with that Lab govenment

    Very good point
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    NickPalmer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Have a bit more background on Pincher situation from govt source
    1/ Source tells me: “Pincher was drunk & groped people in front of other people at Carlton club. He apologies & is mortified”
    2/ Told of the two men involved - one is an MP & 2nd might be too. Source not sure 1/
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1542614757978554369

    Good grief!
    They've taken to sexually assaulting each other now?
    Does a switch flick after 12 years of Tory government and they lose all semblance of libido control?
    lol - it does seem remarkably focused on one side of the House. Is it better or worse because it was in front of other people?

    I stayed at the Carlton years ago (guest of my Tory father), and remember with some embarassment taking a childish pleasure in leaving the Morning Star lying around. Not very guestly.
    My assumption is that idiot in question (neither you nor your father) though he was in a safe space and that he would be protected from . . . exposure.

    Either VERY drunk or, er, cocky. Likely both.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,661
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    Blair really banging the point that Tory-Libdem swing voters must feel comfortable with the possibility that voting Liberal to get rid of their local tory mp might well mean a Lab government. They must feel safe with that Lab govenment

    Very good point
    Hard to feel less safe than with this lot.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    LOL
    https://twitter.com/benmoores2/status/1542570157624762369
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    First of tonights 10 bys is a Lab gain from Indy in Middlesborough

    Berwick Hills & Pallister (Middlesbrough) Result:

    LAB: 56.8% (+26.5)
    IND: 32.1% (New)
    CON: 8.3% (+2.8)
    LDM: 1.7% (New)
    GRN: 1.1% (New)

    No IND (-64.2) as prev.
    LAB GAIN from Independent.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Gift from the USA. Not exactly "Bundles for Britain". But feel free to recycle!

    https://upjoke.com/monica-lewinsky-jokes

    Ms Lewinsky is becoming quite the national treasure. Her twitter feed is at times quite witty.

    https://twitter.com/MonicaLewinsky/status/1541882875494162438?t=jV-1ds23ANYkSV35jfTxJw&s=19
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Jonathan said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    Blair really banging the point that Tory-Libdem swing voters must feel comfortable with the possibility that voting Liberal to get rid of their local tory mp might well mean a Lab government. They must feel safe with that Lab govenment

    Very good point
    Hard to feel less safe than with this lot.
    Very good point. :smile:
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    Last days of Rome stuff from the government now.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Nigelb said:

    LOL
    https://twitter.com/benmoores2/status/1542570157624762369

    That was hilarious

  • sladeslade Posts: 2,041
    wooliedyed said:

    First of tonights 10 bys is a Lab gain from Indy in Middlesborough

    Berwick Hills & Pallister (Middlesbrough) Result:

    LAB: 56.8% (+26.5)
    IND: 32.1% (New)
    CON: 8.3% (+2.8)
    LDM: 1.7% (New)
    GRN: 1.1% (New)

    No IND (-64.2) as prev.
    LAB GAIN from Independent.

    Reversion to the norm.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Andy_JS said:

    If I were Keir Starmer the one thing I wouldn't want is a by-election in Tamworth.

    As fair as I'm aware, CP is not resigning but that may change.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Foxy said:

    It isn't yet clear quite what happened in this sexual assault, but for a whip to be acting like this does show that we still have a long way to go in tackling entrenched abuses of power in Westminster, in particular of sexual abuse.

    That's very likely bollocks. He seems to have got drunk and gropey in the Carlton Club. It's a odd feature of earnest leftydom to insist that sex is not really about sex, rapists aren't really after sex but reinforcing the patriarchal phallocratic power structure etc.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Say this for the NE of England.
    We get our votes counted on time.
This discussion has been closed.