Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

For CON comparisons we should use the LAB/LD/GRN aggregate – politicalbetting.com

123457»

Comments

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,277

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Kaliningrad: the most dangerous place on earth
    Russia's enclave would be at the centre of a third world war"

    https://unherd.com/thepost/kaliningrad-the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth/

    Hmm.... if things go tits up I can think of a lot more dangerous places starting with central London. Kaliningrad isn't worth a nuke.

    Places likely to start a war, on the other hand...
    Oh, Kaliningrad is definitely worth a nuke. The whole place is one massive military base - including nuclear submarines, planes, missiles and long-range air defences.
    Ok. You just wonder what sort of F****** idiot thought that having a small piece of Russia separated from the rest of the country surrounded by newly independent fledgling states was a good idea. I mean, what could go wrong with that?
    It's Konigsberg and should be German really, or ceded to Poland or Lithuania as part of the post WWII settlement.

    Instead, Stalin turned in into a totally contrived Russian colony.
    Don't think that is right. It was a contiguous part of the Soviet Union until Lithuiania got independence. He did kick the Germans out though.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,216
    Question - if Gavin Williamson got a knighthood for walking in on Carrie Symonds sucking off Boris Johnson in the Foreign Office, what did Lebedev see to get his "don't give this man a" Lordship?
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,563

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Kaliningrad: the most dangerous place on earth
    Russia's enclave would be at the centre of a third world war"

    https://unherd.com/thepost/kaliningrad-the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth/

    Hmm.... if things go tits up I can think of a lot more dangerous places starting with central London. Kaliningrad isn't worth a nuke.

    Places likely to start a war, on the other hand...
    Oh, Kaliningrad is definitely worth a nuke. The whole place is one massive military base - including nuclear submarines, planes, missiles and long-range air defences.
    Ok. You just wonder what sort of F****** idiot thought that having a small piece of Russia separated from the rest of the country surrounded by newly independent fledgling states was a good idea. I mean, what could go wrong with that?
    It's Konigsberg and should be German really, or ceded to Poland or Lithuania as part of the post WWII settlement.

    Instead, Stalin turned in into a totally contrived Russian colony.
    AND ice-free naval base, plus conveniently located army & air base, listening post, etc., etc.

    Plus virtually ensured that it was highly unlikely to EVER again be part of Germany.

    Note that US & UK were NOT in position to object, given that Red Army was camped across the landscape, at same time that Western troops were being redeployed against Japan and/or clamoring (along with their families & etc.) to be demobilized.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,225

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson's deputy chief whip has resigned over an allegation of "groping", Sky News understands.

    Chris Pincher said he had drunk "far too much" and "embarrassing myself and other people" on a night out. The Conservative MP for Tamworth wrote to the prime minister to explain his decision to stand down."

    https://news.sky.com/story/conservative-party-whip-christopher-pincher-resigns-after-drinking-too-much-and-embarrassing-myself-on-night-out-12643407

    Staffordshire is a cursed county, just look at some of the utter bellends it has as MPs now and in the recent past.

    Aiden Burley, Michael Fabricant, Sir Gavin Fucking Williamson, Jonathan Gullis, Bill Cash, and Chris Pincher.

    I am utterly confident that Aaron Bell will not join such August company.
    Oi! Not everyone in Staffs is a bellend.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,225

    Pincher is 52 years old. And he's still getting so drunk that he loses self control, ends up groping others (allegedly), and then has to resign. What is wrong with these people? There's been quite a few of them lately, mainly male Tories (Parish, Roberts, Warburton, Elphicke, Griffiths, Green - off the top of my head), who just don't seem to have grown up.

    It's almost as if they have an immature, man-child role model who is himself sexually incontinent.

    I was thinking earlier that perhaps they are banning babies from the Commons on the basis that people might start to think squawking infants are both better behaved and would probably do a better job.

    And let's face it, both those statements may be true.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,225

    Question - if Gavin Williamson got a knighthood for walking in on Carrie Symonds sucking off Boris Johnson in the Foreign Office, what did Lebedev see to get his "don't give this man a" Lordship?

    More interesting question:

    What did Sergei Lavrov see to be made Foreign Minister of Russia?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,938
    Once again, BoZo thinks the voters are idiots

    So this is the second time in just five years that Conservative MP Chris Pincher has had to resign from the whips office over sexual misconduct allegations, yet we're told the party is happy for him to keep the whip because he's "done the right thing" by admitting it.
    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1542608624253632518
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,563
    I move the following PB motion (in more than one sense perhaps):

    That Leon's next travel assignment be to visit - Kaliningrad!

    THIS is his golden (or leaden?) opportunity to beat the cruise ships AND scoop Rick Steves.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,563
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson's deputy chief whip has resigned over an allegation of "groping", Sky News understands.

    Chris Pincher said he had drunk "far too much" and "embarrassing myself and other people" on a night out. The Conservative MP for Tamworth wrote to the prime minister to explain his decision to stand down."

    https://news.sky.com/story/conservative-party-whip-christopher-pincher-resigns-after-drinking-too-much-and-embarrassing-myself-on-night-out-12643407

    Staffordshire is a cursed county, just look at some of the utter bellends it has as MPs now and in the recent past.

    Aiden Burley, Michael Fabricant, Sir Gavin Fucking Williamson, Jonathan Gullis, Bill Cash, and Chris Pincher.

    I am utterly confident that Aaron Bell will not join such August company.
    Oi! Not everyone in Staffs is a bellend.
    Citation?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,073
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Kaliningrad: the most dangerous place on earth
    Russia's enclave would be at the centre of a third world war"

    https://unherd.com/thepost/kaliningrad-the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth/

    Hmm.... if things go tits up I can think of a lot more dangerous places starting with central London. Kaliningrad isn't worth a nuke.

    Places likely to start a war, on the other hand...
    Oh, Kaliningrad is definitely worth a nuke. The whole place is one massive military base - including nuclear submarines, planes, missiles and long-range air defences.
    Ok. You just wonder what sort of F****** idiot thought that having a small piece of Russia separated from the rest of the country surrounded by newly independent fledgling states was a good idea. I mean, what could go wrong with that?
    'At the Potsdam Conference in 1945 the Allies and the Soviet Government agreed on the settlement'
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,225

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson's deputy chief whip has resigned over an allegation of "groping", Sky News understands.

    Chris Pincher said he had drunk "far too much" and "embarrassing myself and other people" on a night out. The Conservative MP for Tamworth wrote to the prime minister to explain his decision to stand down."

    https://news.sky.com/story/conservative-party-whip-christopher-pincher-resigns-after-drinking-too-much-and-embarrassing-myself-on-night-out-12643407

    Staffordshire is a cursed county, just look at some of the utter bellends it has as MPs now and in the recent past.

    Aiden Burley, Michael Fabricant, Sir Gavin Fucking Williamson, Jonathan Gullis, Bill Cash, and Chris Pincher.

    I am utterly confident that Aaron Bell will not join such August company.
    Oi! Not everyone in Staffs is a bellend.
    Citation?
    Are you suggesting I am a bellend?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,231
    CatMan said:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamworth_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Looks like a rock solid Tory seat. 20,000 majority over Labour and the Lib Dems nowhere. So in a By-election Labour would probably win easily :naughty:

    Interesting example of what was once a typical Midlands marginal, but has now become a Tory stronghold. Why have the Midlands small towns turned so strongly to the Tories?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,334

    This seems to keep cropping up

    ‼️ Big debate in UKG over @EmmanuelMacron idea of a “European Political Community”

    A senior UK official tells me the options being considered are to “ignore it”, “lean into it” or “wait and see”

    Definitely worth watching. There is clearly “interest but reticence” in London 1/

    I’d be all for some “solution” I think

    Odd. I'm all for close economic cooperation, but I thought political union was what most British politicians wanted to avoid? For military cooperation we havre NATO. What would the political body do, apart from argue internally?
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,140
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Let’s face it, even Cameron didn’t pretend that his renegotiation amounted to a ball of chalk. Had it done so it would have formed an important strand of the debate but it barely featured.

    What we needed was a handbrake on the absurd number of EU citizens who were coming here to work so that our infrastructure and services could cope. And we were told that the 4 freedoms were indivisible, take it or leave it. So we chose to leave it.

    Only because successive UKGs couldn't be arsed to get their act togethjer on identity cards, benefits entitlements, and so on.
    Possibly, we certainly made very little effort to maximise the undoubted advantages of membership (other than arguably in the City of London). But maybe we just didn't want to live that way.
    There is long-standing view - certainly in left-wing critiques of UK economic policy - that the City of London has essentially fucked the overall economy time and time again.
    A rather different point but an interesting one. I think its mixed.

    The proportion of our profits taken by financial services has been ludicrous since at least the turn of the century, arguably longer. They gouge ridiculous salaries for services that are useful but not economically central to what we do. They also undoubtedly encourage short termism, working for very short term excellence at the cost of long term investment. The fact that they do this despite the bulk of their funds coming from long term investors like pension schemes is absurd but they need to stand out in the league tables.

    It is clear from the US that it doesn't have to work that way. They are much more open to risk and capital growth rather than screaming about the dividends. A company growing in the way that Amazon did is simply unimaginable in the UK, to our detriment.

    And yet, without their foreign earnings and
    the tax they pay we would have a significantly lower standard of living. Tricky. Its a bit like
    the answer to the question of what is the best road to Dublin (and don't ask JRM)?
    This accusation is roughly that the City of London underfunds the domestic economy and therefore less (or no) Amazons can get off the ground full-stop.

    I don’t think American banks are any less short-term, but American consumers invest in American stocks.

    Brits invest in housing, and foreign commodities (grossly simplifying).

    Look how many unicorns the US has created compared to us though (although we lead Europe by quite a long way with nearly a third of the total).
    I'm unconvinced that's a good measure of anything per se; many of those "unicorns" are already imploding because their valuations were based on the money-go-round and not the revenue generated by profitable businesses. All WeWork and no play makes Jack a poor boy.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,277

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Kaliningrad: the most dangerous place on earth
    Russia's enclave would be at the centre of a third world war"

    https://unherd.com/thepost/kaliningrad-the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth/

    Hmm.... if things go tits up I can think of a lot more dangerous places starting with central London. Kaliningrad isn't worth a nuke.

    Places likely to start a war, on the other hand...
    Oh, Kaliningrad is definitely worth a nuke. The whole place is one massive military base - including nuclear submarines, planes, missiles and long-range air defences.
    Ok. You just wonder what sort of F****** idiot thought that having a small piece of Russia separated from the rest of the country surrounded by newly independent fledgling states was a good idea. I mean, what could go wrong with that?
    Your suggestion for correcting this circa 1989?

    Right now, West is defending borders established Soviet borders re: Ukraine.

    Kaliningrad is part of same ball of wax. AND with a population that's overwhelmingly Russian, and has been ever since Germans were expelled after WWII.

    Perhaps could have been given independence (as with Moldova) or partitioned between Poland and Lithuania. Though doubt that either (esp. Lithuanians) would have wanted to increase their ethnic Russian populations from near zero to something more problematic.
    Independence would have been the obvious option. But I suppose that they may have elected to rejoin the motherland soon enough. It could have been Russia's Hong Kong but of course they went for an army base instead.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,563
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Kaliningrad: the most dangerous place on earth
    Russia's enclave would be at the centre of a third world war"

    https://unherd.com/thepost/kaliningrad-the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth/

    Hmm.... if things go tits up I can think of a lot more dangerous places starting with central London. Kaliningrad isn't worth a nuke.

    Places likely to start a war, on the other hand...
    Oh, Kaliningrad is definitely worth a nuke. The whole place is one massive military base - including nuclear submarines, planes, missiles and long-range air defences.
    Ok. You just wonder what sort of F****** idiot thought that having a small piece of Russia separated from the rest of the country surrounded by newly independent fledgling states was a good idea. I mean, what could go wrong with that?
    It's Konigsberg and should be German really, or ceded to Poland or Lithuania as part of the post WWII settlement.

    Instead, Stalin turned in into a totally contrived Russian colony.
    Don't think that is right. It was a contiguous part of the Soviet Union until Lithuiania got independence. He did kick the Germans out though.
    Yes, but Stalin also insisted (or contrived which would be same thing really in his USSR) that Kaliningrad be an Oblast of the Russian Federated Soviet Socialist Republic.

    Not even an "autonomous" republic (or lesser entity) but just a garden-variety Russian administrative unit.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,563
    NEW THREAD
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,605
    DavidL said:

    carnforth said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Friday’s FINANCIAL Times: “Pressure mounts on sterling as trade figures drop to worst level on record” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1542601164449087489/photo/1



    Would think there would be pressure on the Euro too, in that case.
    As it is the ONS is saying treat the figures with caution because of "discontinuities" arising from changes in the way these things are counted. And Sterling was up against the Euro today (for the first time in a few days, admittedly).
    The figures are likely less precise because of these discontinuities, but do bear in mind MOE is on both sides of the central measurement. Figures are as likely to be worse than better.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,707
    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    NY Post is reporting on Chris Pincher resignation. Not sure IF it can be posted here.

    Suffice to say that, if fiction, story could logically be entitled "The Unpleasantness at the Carlton Club"

    Drunkenly groped two men, is the detail which has yet to emerge in UK reports
    The whips are supposed to be the people taking notes about MPs screwing up after a few drinks, not the idiots doing it.
    It's certainly getting a lot of traction.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,563
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Boris Johnson's deputy chief whip has resigned over an allegation of "groping", Sky News understands.

    Chris Pincher said he had drunk "far too much" and "embarrassing myself and other people" on a night out. The Conservative MP for Tamworth wrote to the prime minister to explain his decision to stand down."

    https://news.sky.com/story/conservative-party-whip-christopher-pincher-resigns-after-drinking-too-much-and-embarrassing-myself-on-night-out-12643407

    Staffordshire is a cursed county, just look at some of the utter bellends it has as MPs now and in the recent past.

    Aiden Burley, Michael Fabricant, Sir Gavin Fucking Williamson, Jonathan Gullis, Bill Cash, and Chris Pincher.

    I am utterly confident that Aaron Bell will not join such August company.
    Oi! Not everyone in Staffs is a bellend.
    Citation?
    Are you suggesting I am a bellend?
    God forbid! But what about the rest of yez? Your family & friends also excepted, of course (at your discretion)!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,286
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Bridges_of_Königsberg

    The city of Königsberg in Prussia (now Kaliningrad, Russia) was set on both sides of the Pregel River, and included two large islands—Kneiphof and Lomse—which were connected to each other, and to the two mainland portions of the city, by seven bridges. The problem was to devise a walk through the city that would cross each of those bridges once and only once.
    image
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,809
    edited June 2022

    CatMan said:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamworth_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Looks like a rock solid Tory seat. 20,000 majority over Labour and the Lib Dems nowhere. So in a By-election Labour would probably win easily :naughty:

    Former constituency of . . . wait for it . . . Sir Robert Peel.

    Who was author of the famed Tamworth Manifesto, "widely credited by historians as having laid down the principles upon which the modern British Conservative Party is based" (as per wiki).
    Tamworth is one of those Midlands bits that has swung increasingly blue - a pro Tory swing across boundary changes at every election since 1996. 1996 was the SE Staffordshire by- election, recently quoted for the 22% Con-Lab swing which Wakefield couldn't match, so guess there was a lot of swing to the Tories to be had, but still, to end up in a place where Labour would need a similarly huge swing to even edge it is quite something.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,334



    Personally i hate heat, or at least humid heat - anything above about 25-28 degrees i hate - so a forecast of a bit of a cool week in mid July is good news for me.

    We are all different.

    Hear hear. And I even think weather forecasters are undesirably biased - "Good news, there's a scorcher on the way!" is as unwelcome as "Good news, there's a Tory poll lead!" Just gives us the facts and let us react according to our preference.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,604

    Pincher is 52 years old. And he's still getting so drunk that he loses self control, ends up groping others (allegedly), and then has to resign. What is wrong with these people? There's been quite a few of them lately, mainly male Tories (Parish, Roberts, Warburton, Elphicke, Griffiths, Green - off the top of my head), who just don't seem to have grown up.

    It's almost as if they have an immature, man-child role model who is himself sexually incontinent.

    Nothing wrong with getting drunk.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,231

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Bridges_of_Königsberg

    The city of Königsberg in Prussia (now Kaliningrad, Russia) was set on both sides of the Pregel River, and included two large islands—Kneiphof and Lomse—which were connected to each other, and to the two mainland portions of the city, by seven bridges. The problem was to devise a walk through the city that would cross each of those bridges once and only once.
    image

    I can see a trivial proof of why that isn't possible. Did no mathematicians ever live in Königsberg?

    Lots of mathematicians from Königsberg - I assume everyone ignored them as usual then.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,203
    edited June 2022
    https://twitter.com/nbpauk/status/1542593078703394820?s=21&t=O_0OtDTz9I5RKMsVwSglRQ

    6 police forces now in special measures. The Met, Greater Manchester Police, Cleveland, Wiltshire, Gloucestershire and Staffordshire.

    As I wrote back in January 2020 -

    "To a financial investigator, this picture is very familiar. Despite innumerable inquiries, changes in the law, disciplinary proceedings, recommendations, new procedures, training, apologies, compensation paid, some prosecutions and that perennial favourite – “lessons have been learnt” – bad, criminal behaviour (which all the people doing it would clearly have known was wrong) and incompetence have repeatedly occurred in forces all over the country over decades. Not one or two “rotten apples”; whole orchards of them. There has been a culture of poor leadership, cover-up or the truth only coming out many years later and of other key agencies turning a blind eye, aiding and abetting or failing to set or demand high standards of probity and professionalism."

    My conclusion -

    "Perhaps – like banking – it is time to realise that there is something systemic and deep-rooted and toxic in police culture which allows or encourages or does not stop officers from behaving badly. Perhaps – like banking – it is time to make the hard cultural changes needed if training and rules are to work. Perhaps – unlike banking – it is time for senior leaders to take real responsibility not merely talk about it. Perhaps – like banking – it is time to realise that even successful or vital sectors or professions can in reality be really rather more second-rate than we like to pretend. Perhaps we should stop deluding ourselves that our key institutions are as good as we sometimes rather vaingloriously claim. The police are not the only body of which this could be said, of course.

    Law and order are the most basic functions of the state. But the police should not be treated as a sacred cow. A comprehensive, dispassionate and ruthless look at how the police operate and real tough action to change it for the better are needed."


    Will we finally get this??
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,809
    edited June 2022
    Pro_Rata said:

    CatMan said:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamworth_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Looks like a rock solid Tory seat. 20,000 majority over Labour and the Lib Dems nowhere. So in a By-election Labour would probably win easily :naughty:

    Former constituency of . . . wait for it . . . Sir Robert Peel.

    Who was author of the famed Tamworth Manifesto, "widely credited by historians as having laid down the principles upon which the modern British Conservative Party is based" (as per wiki).
    Tamworth is one of those Midlands bits that has swung increasingly blue - a pro Tory swing across boundary changes at every election since 1996. 1996 was the SE Staffordshire by- election, recently quoted for the 22% Con-Lab swing which Wakefield couldn't match, so guess there was a lot of swing to the Tories to be had, but still, to end up in a place where Labour would need a similarly huge swing to even edge it is quite something.
    I posted prematurely and edited as much as I could in the time. Labour would need a 21.2% SEStaffs style swing to take it, and that would be the task, I'm not sure this could be an LD from nowhere one.

    Of note that Tamworth as a town had been quite bellweathery for a while - matching the government of the day since 1964, except for the 6 months in 1974 and from the by-election in 96 to Blair's win. Was Labour through 50-64 (as Lichfield & Tamworth), not sure what the 45-50 constituency was, but guessing it was Labour then.
This discussion has been closed.