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For CON comparisons we should use the LAB/LD/GRN aggregate – politicalbetting.com
For CON comparisons we should use the LAB/LD/GRN aggregate – politicalbetting.com
Whenever new polls come out we tend to look for just one figure and that is the Labour lead over the Conservatives.I would suggest that we are being too simplistic.
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I think about 30-40% of the Lib Dem vote is likely to split right.
Greens split 80-90% to Labour, less are likely to go Lib Dem.
And I think disgruntled Con will go Green before Lab or Lib Dem.
I have a very good friend (© Malmesbury) who served on Tu -22 as a WSO and he told me they didn't fly for months on end because the coolant system used a blend of 50/50 water and ethanol which could be stolen and sold as a bracing beverage. Every single officer on the squadron was in on it and they all got an allocation of coolant based on rank to either sell or get constantly drunk on. He was supposed to be my best man but got locked up in Cyprus for stabbing somebody on the stag night. Top bloke/Молодец!
This myth is normally peddled by Labour folk, not normally by Lib Dems themselves.
Flu and pneumonia were a cause of contributory factor in more deaths than covid was since the start of the pandemic, which I must admit really surprised me... however that is indeed what the data say.
So Richard is quite right I think.
There are large areas of the North and Midlands where, like Wakefield, there is barely a LD vote to re-distribute
I presume they deliberately didn't add methanol so as not to blind half the squadron ?
It's one third. And has been for some months now.
Add five percent to that and they'll be difficult to shift.
Add nowt, and they are headed for defeat. Whichever way you slice it.
History has long arms. Alfred the Great was obvs an LD.
“There were 148,606 deaths where COVID-19 was identified as the underlying cause of death in England and Wales between the weeks ending 13 March 2020 and 1 April 2022, compared with 35,007 deaths due to flu and pneumonia.
“In contrast, there were 170,600 deaths, where COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate as cause or contributory factor, compared to 219,207 deaths involving flu and pneumonia.”
COVID killed way more people. You could add the figures together, so cases where the diseases had any role, so there would be 319k for COVID and 254k for flu and pneumonia. COVID still ahead.
When interpreting these figures, you also need to be very clear that they’re for flu AND pneumonia. Pneumonia is common at the end of life and has a very different epidemiology to flu and COVID-19.
My thoughts are: Many LDs seem to like Starmer, but only ~50%, so the other half of LD voters are true party people. Many Labour voters will not vote LD, still holding resentment about the coalition and, indeed, the LDs participation in the anti-Corbyn coalition that allowed the 2019 election to go the way it did. Greens may have voted Labour in the past, but that was under Corbyn; expecting the Greens to "come home" to Labour under Starmer is a bigger question. I would actually expect more Greens to vote LD tactically than Labour, based on geography, policy and demographics.
What we really need to see is consistent polling by the LDs of >15% and Lab consistently >40% to get the kind of tactical voting needed to displace the Tories.
NB: As a Green I am against any tactical voting that would give Labour a majority or, indeed, allows Labour to only rely on LD votes. I think we need a truly hung parliament, or a "coalition of chaos" as the Tories would call it, to produce the necessary significant changes that would make the UK more democratic (repealing this recent police powers bill, electoral reform, referendums in Scotland and NI, more funding and power to local government in England, etc). I don't trust Starmer's Labour to do that if they are too firmly in the driver's seat, and I don't see the LDs having backbone enough if only their votes are needed. If Lab needs, depending on the context of the vote, a mix of LD, Green, PC and SNP votes, that seems much more reasonable to me. And if Lab ended up relying heavily on Tory votes (grand coalition style), the two main parties could easily see themselves collapse, which wouldn't be a bad thing either.
If Labour has a significant sustained poll lead then the odds are they might win the next election.
If Labour has only a narrow midterm poll lead then swingback might provide a significant proportion of that 5%.
But you are right in the main.
Is there some kind of long term, perpetuating difference, like land tenure or something?
I think the new seat Oadby, Wigston and Blaby would be a good target seat for LDs locally. O and W make up the bulk of the seat, and the council is already LD.
No wonder the UK is selling off various defence contractors.
The point is that there are various areas (like Cleveland) where Labour is the incumbent and where it is fairly obvious the Lib Dems are not in contention. There, the Lib Dems' (rather low) residual vote isn't all that much more likely to choose Labour over the Conservatives. I had various criticisms of that, but understand the point.
That is not the same as saying that respondents in a generic vote opinion poll won't vote tactically, or that their tactical vote isn't reasonably predictable.
If you look at the only example Mike gave where the incumbent was not Labour, and it wasn't clear that the Lib Dems were out of contention (Cambridgeshire/Peterborough Mayor where the LDs were a close third and probably would have won in the second round had they edged out Labour in round one) that illustrates the point well - three quarters of LD second prefs were for Labour.
It would, of course, be wrong to simply add the Labour, Lib Dem and Green votes together - if you could do that, the Conservatives would have lost many more elections than they have. However, if you merely focus on the Labour lead over the Conservatives (or vice versa) ignoring the relative levels of Lib Dem/Green and RE-FUK votes, you're missing a key point.
Labour still haven't addressed the fundamentals of why they were booted out of office in 2010, IMHO. If they do win in 2024/25 it will only be by default and because someone has to win.
The biggest, overwhelming, difference isn’t one of policy but of attitude. Liberals put a value on independence of thought and action, socialists prize solidarity, loyalty and adherence to the party line. That’s a little glib, and I could have written a whole paragraph (but don’t feel like it). But the answer is in there somewhere.
Basically, the US, the UK and the Eurozone are all heading towards economic contraction in Q3, while Japan has (so far) avoided it.
(I don't know, I have no idea, I am merely asking a genuine question as that is how it reads)
https://mobile.twitter.com/AFP/status/1542249958161670145
"No problem" for Russia if Finland, Sweden join NATO, Putin says
Is the euro next? The ECB also thinks it has a consequence free pass to print as much money as it wants whenever it wants. The latest printing exercise is to support the debt markets of member economies that are so chronically weak they cannot even stand positive rates.
You get Conservatives who value liberal principles of independence of thought and action etc - and those who demand their own version of solidarity, loyalty and adherence too.
For me, independence of thought is absolutely critical and most important, for others only ever voting Tory no matter what is more important.
Moreover, that same report says we probably under count flu deaths – because of the lack of testing... which again is food for thought and further grist to Richard's mill...
For example, death certificates likely underestimate flu deaths because not all patients are tested for it, and circulating flu causes increases in deaths due to other conditions such as cardiovascular diseases.
Unless it's a Tory implementing it of course.
@nadhimzahawi has gutted his own legislation. https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1542472024068689921/photo/1
So far, he is the quiet, competent guy who gets the show back on the road after their wheels came off. He is gradually facing down the more ludicrous types, but apart from that, hasn’t made a big pitch as to what Starmerism might be.
1997 happened because the Tories were incredibly in popular *and* Blair had moved the Labour Party from NotNutters (Kinnock) and LeftSocialDemocracy (Smith) to NewLabour. Which was, at that point, a massively positive brand.
If that authoritarian turn is repeated nationally, I do wonder if the LDs would be able to outflank Labour on the left on some things - this policing bill, the borders and nationality bill etc. Going back to the socially libertarian instincts of some liberals would, in my mind, go back to the pre coalition days where Charles Kennedy / Paddy Ashdown seemed to sit.
Chelsea’s new owners have commissioned an investigation into accusations of a toxic culture of bullying within their marketing team after it emerged the former head of the club’s television channel took his own life.
The club confirmed they had appointed “an external review team” following the revelation Richard Bignell had killed himself aged 44 in January and that a coroner’s report had found he had been “deeply troubled by anxiety, depression and despair following the loss of his job”.
The New York Times said Bignell, who worked at Chelsea for 18 years, had been abruptly sacked in September a day after returning from more than a year of medical leave.
It said Chelsea’s previous leadership had hired an outside firm to conduct a cultural review of their marketing department in March but that it was to be jointly overseen by the executive accused of being to blame for the worst of its problems.
It said it had spoken to almost a dozen of Bignell’s current or former colleagues, a number of whom told it he had struggled to cope with the executive’s aggressive management style that sometimes left colleagues in tears.
Other staff were said to have been signed off on medical leave, with at least 10 members of the team having quit the club.
One former employee was said to have done so amid fears over his or her own mental health, and to have written to Chelsea chairman Bruce Buck to that effect.
Others were said to have expressed similar concerns to club executives or in exit interviews with human resources staff.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2022/06/30/chelsea-launch-review-toxic-culture-suicide-clubs-former-head/
When the Tories return to those days I shall vote for them again.
Notwithstanding what others have said about pneumonia being a result of Covid, which would require more examination of the data, flu and pneumonia have been a cause or contributory factor in more deaths than Covid since March 2020.
There is a lot of dislike and distrust of LP only offset by utterly crap nature of current government. Danger for Labour is that Tory MPs might kick out BoJo and appoint a better alternative so even Tories losing next election is not a certainty.
It's a shame he accidentally mailed it to /dev/null ...
Enteric viruses replicate in salivary glands and infect through saliva
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04895-8
In my case this is simply an argument about interesting perceptions and how they influence our responses. I do think we need a mindset change and learn to accept that covid is here to stay and people will die of it just as they do with flu (often in very large numbers). But that is not to encourage irresponsibility which personally, and with respect, I think is what Bart is advocating.
Nicola Sturgeon's ministers have said no more of their money should be given to the Ukraine for weapons after being pressured by the Treasury to hand over £65 million.
Kate Forbes, the Scottish Finance Secretary, said she had agreed to provide the money "on this occasion" but lashed out at the Treasury, making clear "this must not be seen as any kind of precedent."
Her comments were echoed by Rebecca Evans, her Welsh counterpart, who complained she had been forced to donate £30 million of money earmarked for "devolved areas, like health and education."
But the Treasury "strongly disagreed" with her characterisation of the request, saying government departments across Whitehall had also been asked to make a contribution through their underspend.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/06/30/nicola-sturgeons-snp-will-no-longer-send-money-ukraine-weapons/
It’s going to be a tough next couple of years for most of the Western world, there will likely be close to a completely reversal of the asset price inflation we have seen since shortly after the start of the pandemic, as well as commodity-led inflation remaining high in the general economy.
Nadine Dorries, sec of state for sport, is special guest.
“I’ve always liked the idea of rugby league. That drop goal in 2003 was such a special moment.”
That drop goal was actually in the Rugby Union World Cup.
https://twitter.com/chrishallitv/status/1542488532274618368
Why omit Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party?
It was indeed a special moment though, one of the sporting moments of the century so far.
Isn’t pneumonia also associated with a lot of other diseases?
At the moment they're close enough to 35% that it's plausible they can close the gap during an election campaign by scaring the voters with a bunch of rubbish about the Opposition. The Opposition have a job of work to do to convince the voters they're worth a try.
I think you're right about SKS and the voters though. There's something about him that doesn't cut through. It's not a lack of 'charisma' as such - in any case please save us from more of that - it's more that he seems on too tight a rein, kind of bottled up, so you don't as a casual observer (which is what the voters are) get a sense of knowing and relating to him. Of all the skills a politician needs for personal electoral appeal, creating that illusion (which it usually is) is imo the most important. SKS doesn't have it in his locker - which is a problem.
its complicated by pneumunoccal bacteria that cause pneumonia. (Streptococcus pneumoniae, or pneumococcus) And there is a vaccine against it, so people are offered vaccines against pneumonia, which is a bit confusing.
My point was simply that you were right in your contention about the data.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-61994020
https://twitter.com/JakOSpades/status/1542480400668397568
Does it show?
(Currently 'Together in Electric Dreams'; next 'Nothing's gonna stop us now.')
Obviously they couldn't hold it, given the arrival of MLRS / Harpoons etc but, on this logic, they realise that the arrival of such equipment - even in small numbers - is going to have a catastrophic impact on their resources.
Which makes me think that we may not be too far again from the Russians offering some sort of ceasefire proposal, especially if the Ukrainian army leaves / is defeated at Lysychansk and it therefore has control of Luhansk, if not the entire Donbas.
One other part - apparently at the well-publicised meeting between Shiogu and the Russian commanders was the head of the RU army's personnel department. Might be worth thinking about why he would be there.