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Betting YES on a CON MP defecting to LAB might be value – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Donald might find it hard to wriggle out of this...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-61971428

    You'd hope that. I cannot believe it will matter. It was bloody obvious from the start what was going on yet 99% of Republican representatives and a massive number of Republican voters do not care. If it comes out of that inquiry, they will ignore it.
    I'm afraid you are right.

    Jonathon Haidt warns in this week's New Statesman that America is now the ghost of the future of western democracy unless we learn the lessons of Trump and his use of social media.

    We have been warned.
    Haidt’s discussion with Lex Fridman about teenagers and social media, should scare the Hell out of every parent.
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=f0un-l1L8Zw
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094

    So it begins...

    "Trump, basically a one-man response team for himself, is going after Hutchinson on his social media site, Truth Social. He's using a familiar tack, that he hardly knows "who this person, Cassidy Hutchinson, is." "

    NY Time blog

    It's amazing that even the very senior people whom he handpicked or said were great, once they abandon him, he declares them to be awful and he barely knew them.

    Why would anyon work for such a man? Scraps from the king's table are only appealing if you are starving, and most have at least some other options.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094
    ydoethur said:

    @haynesdeborah
    BREAKING: The leaders of Turkey, Sweden & Finland have just signed a memorandum for the two Nordic states to join NATO, removing a Turkish block to the accession process, a source said.
    “It’s a three-way agreement on accession,” the source said. @jensstoltenberg to make statement


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313

    Don't worry, that loud bang in Moscow wasn't a nuke, it was Putin and Lavrov spontaneously combusting.

    I'd like to know what bung Erdogan got what arrangement was reached, but I did say I always thought he would fold on this.
    Next step Hungary to make a sudden objection?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    This is where Cassidy Hutchison's desk was in the White House:

    https://twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1541832337721286660
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    kle4 said:

    Hillary Clinton has coined a new political term. Clarence Thomas is apparently a “person of grievance”.

    https://nypost.com/2022/06/28/hillary-clinton-blasts-clarence-thomas-as-person-of-grievance-after-roe-reversal/amp/


    “He’s been a person of grievance for as long as I’ve known him. Resentment, grievance, anger."


    I cannot speak as to Thomas, and no doubt she will be pilloried for saying it, but I think we all know people like that. They do exist.
    If this story is true, he has been so for many decades.
    https://news.yahoo.com/supreme-court-justice-clarence-thomas-051733128.html
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "It seems that every large city in America has marked off a neighbourhood where drug addicts are free to die in the streets. San Francisco’s Tenderloin district, downtown Portland, Skid Row in Los Angeles, Hunts Point in New York, Kensington in Philadelphia: These are places where, by unspoken agreement between society and its outcasts, the normal rules cease to apply and the bodies are collected.

    Where it’s warm enough, people sleep in tents or on the streets. Drugs and sex are openly sold and laws are enforced erratically. The result, which I observed during a 2019 trip to Skid Row, was a “hellish concentration of deprivation and disorder”, interspersed with a concentrated complex of non-profit and social service organisations."

    https://unherd.com/2022/06/harm-reduction-has-captured-america/

    On a more positive note, at least they've not yet fallen prey to the scourge of tea.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    If you look at his comments further on, he says it's qualified by the rights of another body ie the foetus

    Which is the hub of the abortion argument in a nutshell. One life or two.

    Saying women having complete autonomy leads logically to the conclusion that a foetus can be terminated up to the point of birth.

    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree , don't say they haven't warned you...

    Tory MP Danny Kruger says he doesn’t agree that “women have an absolute right to bodily autonomy".
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1541778555088011264

    It helps to not be dogmatic.

    Almost everybody would consider terminating a baby the day before birth to be murder.

    And the vast majority would not regard the moment of fertilization (or even at a point where no-one can know if fertilization has taken place) as murder.

    I would regard anything in the first trimester as absolutely fine, and anything in the third to be highly suspect - simply because at that point, they have ceased being foetuses and are now pain-feeling, potentially viable babies.

    The question then becomes where to draw the line. I personally would probably draw it slightly earlier than the UK does, but accept that there are many different views, and that my calculations are not necessarily going to be the same as someone else's.
    I believe that is the viewpoint of the vast majority in the UK and almost certainly a healthy majority in the US.
    And was the case in practice until the SC barrelled in.
    I note @HYUFD saying that the Catholic SC justices are implementing Vatican doctrine. That is the problem right there. They are not there to do this. But to interpret and rule on US law. Their religious faith should not come into it. And if they feel they can't ignore it, then they should recuse themselves or resign.
    It's interesting how such moves, no matter how outrageous or shocking, do serve to shift the overton window nonetheless.

    Lots of pb regulars have argued on here for reductions (some very serious reductions) in the legal abortion limit in the UK in a way over the last few days they weren't doing last week or before.

    It makes me wonder how much of our famed values really are engrained in us or simply a function of social proof.
    How many of those are women ?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    If you look at his comments further on, he says it's qualified by the rights of another body ie the foetus

    Which is the hub of the abortion argument in a nutshell. One life or two.

    Saying women having complete autonomy leads logically to the conclusion that a foetus can be terminated up to the point of birth.

    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree , don't say they haven't warned you...

    Tory MP Danny Kruger says he doesn’t agree that “women have an absolute right to bodily autonomy".
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1541778555088011264

    It helps to not be dogmatic.

    Almost everybody would consider terminating a baby the day before birth to be murder.

    And the vast majority would not regard the moment of fertilization (or even at a point where no-one can know if fertilization has taken place) as murder.

    I would regard anything in the first trimester as absolutely fine, and anything in the third to be highly suspect - simply because at that point, they have ceased being foetuses and are now pain-feeling, potentially viable babies.

    The question then becomes where to draw the line. I personally would probably draw it slightly earlier than the UK does, but accept that there are many different views, and that my calculations are not necessarily going to be the same as someone else's.
    I believe that is the viewpoint of the vast majority in the UK and almost certainly a healthy majority in the US.
    And was the case in practice until the SC barrelled in.
    I note @HYUFD saying that the Catholic SC justices are implementing Vatican doctrine. That is the problem right there. They are not there to do this. But to interpret and rule on US law. Their religious faith should not come into it. And if they feel they can't ignore it, then they should recuse themselves or resign.
    It's interesting how such moves, no matter how outrageous or shocking, do serve to shift the overton window nonetheless.

    Lots of pb regulars have argued on here for reductions (some very serious reductions) in the legal abortion limit in the UK in a way over the last few days they weren't doing last week or before.

    It makes me wonder how much of our famed values really are engrained in us or simply a function of social proof.
    Always blown away by the courage and debating skill of PB regulars who make blanket (and in this case false) claims about "PB regulars" rather than engage with actual posters over actual posts of things that they actually and undeniably said. Respect.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    @haynesdeborah
    BREAKING: The leaders of Turkey, Sweden & Finland have just signed a memorandum for the two Nordic states to join NATO, removing a Turkish block to the accession process, a source said.
    “It’s a three-way agreement on accession,” the source said. @jensstoltenberg to make statement


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313

    Don't worry, that loud bang in Moscow wasn't a nuke, it was Putin and Lavrov spontaneously combusting.

    I'd like to know what bung Erdogan got what arrangement was reached, but I did say I always thought he would fold on this.
    Next step Hungary to make a sudden objection?
    No

    Turkey is a large powerful and geopolitically pivotal country, with crucial NATO bases. NATO needs to offer due respect, and has done so

    Hungary is none of these things
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,446

    @haynesdeborah
    BREAKING: The leaders of Turkey, Sweden & Finland have just signed a memorandum for the two Nordic states to join NATO, removing a Turkish block to the accession process, a source said.
    “It’s a three-way agreement on accession,” the source said. @jensstoltenberg to make statement


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313

    I wonder what Turkey's price was.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    @haynesdeborah
    BREAKING: The leaders of Turkey, Sweden & Finland have just signed a memorandum for the two Nordic states to join NATO, removing a Turkish block to the accession process, a source said.
    “It’s a three-way agreement on accession,” the source said. @jensstoltenberg to make statement


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313

    Only the US have a real veto imo.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    @haynesdeborah
    BREAKING: The leaders of Turkey, Sweden & Finland have just signed a memorandum for the two Nordic states to join NATO, removing a Turkish block to the accession process, a source said.
    “It’s a three-way agreement on accession,” the source said. @jensstoltenberg to make statement


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313

    Don't worry, that loud bang in Moscow wasn't a nuke, it was Putin and Lavrov spontaneously combusting.

    I'd like to know what bung Erdogan got what arrangement was reached, but I did say I always thought he would fold on this.
    Next step Hungary to make a sudden objection?
    No

    Turkey is a large powerful and geopolitically pivotal country, with crucial NATO bases. NATO needs to offer due respect, and has done so

    Hungary is none of these things
    I was thinking more Orban doing so briefly for shits and giggles.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    @haynesdeborah
    BREAKING: The leaders of Turkey, Sweden & Finland have just signed a memorandum for the two Nordic states to join NATO, removing a Turkish block to the accession process, a source said.
    “It’s a three-way agreement on accession,” the source said. @jensstoltenberg to make statement


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313

    Don't worry, that loud bang in Moscow wasn't a nuke, it was Putin and Lavrov spontaneously combusting.

    I'd like to know what bung Erdogan got what arrangement was reached, but I did say I always thought he would fold on this.
    Next step Hungary to make a sudden objection?
    No

    Turkey is a large powerful and geopolitically pivotal country, with crucial NATO bases. NATO needs to offer due respect, and has done so

    Hungary is none of these things
    Personally, I think Turkey needs a swift kick in the hole, probably on an annual basis. But nobody will do so, because they play both sides so successfully, and have regular tantrums.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    ydoethur said:

    @haynesdeborah
    BREAKING: The leaders of Turkey, Sweden & Finland have just signed a memorandum for the two Nordic states to join NATO, removing a Turkish block to the accession process, a source said.
    “It’s a three-way agreement on accession,” the source said. @jensstoltenberg to make statement


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313

    Don't worry, that loud bang in Moscow wasn't a nuke, it was Putin and Lavrov spontaneously combusting.

    I'd like to know what bung Erdogan got what arrangement was reached, but I did say I always thought he would fold on this.
    Inevitable. Didn't really have a veto.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,446
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    If you look at his comments further on, he says it's qualified by the rights of another body ie the foetus

    Which is the hub of the abortion argument in a nutshell. One life or two.

    Saying women having complete autonomy leads logically to the conclusion that a foetus can be terminated up to the point of birth.

    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree , don't say they haven't warned you...

    Tory MP Danny Kruger says he doesn’t agree that “women have an absolute right to bodily autonomy".
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1541778555088011264

    It helps to not be dogmatic.

    Almost everybody would consider terminating a baby the day before birth to be murder.

    And the vast majority would not regard the moment of fertilization (or even at a point where no-one can know if fertilization has taken place) as murder.

    I would regard anything in the first trimester as absolutely fine, and anything in the third to be highly suspect - simply because at that point, they have ceased being foetuses and are now pain-feeling, potentially viable babies.

    The question then becomes where to draw the line. I personally would probably draw it slightly earlier than the UK does, but accept that there are many different views, and that my calculations are not necessarily going to be the same as someone else's.
    I believe that is the viewpoint of the vast majority in the UK and almost certainly a healthy majority in the US.
    And was the case in practice until the SC barrelled in.
    I note @HYUFD saying that the Catholic SC justices are implementing Vatican doctrine. That is the problem right there. They are not there to do this. But to interpret and rule on US law. Their religious faith should not come into it. And if they feel they can't ignore it, then they should recuse themselves or resign.
    It's interesting how such moves, no matter how outrageous or shocking, do serve to shift the overton window nonetheless.

    Lots of pb regulars have argued on here for reductions (some very serious reductions) in the legal abortion limit in the UK in a way over the last few days they weren't doing last week or before.

    It makes me wonder how much of our famed values really are engrained in us or simply a function of social proof.
    How many of those are women ?
    I don't know. It's not a criticism of the individuals either.

    I just think we're far more influenced by contemporary social mores than we'd care to admit.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    @haynesdeborah
    BREAKING: The leaders of Turkey, Sweden & Finland have just signed a memorandum for the two Nordic states to join NATO, removing a Turkish block to the accession process, a source said.
    “It’s a three-way agreement on accession,” the source said. @jensstoltenberg to make statement


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313

    Don't worry, that loud bang in Moscow wasn't a nuke, it was Putin and Lavrov spontaneously combusting.

    I'd like to know what bung Erdogan got what arrangement was reached, but I did say I always thought he would fold on this.
    Inevitable. Didn't really have a veto.
    They absolutely had a veto. We have no idea what they've squeezed out of Biden for this.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    @haynesdeborah
    BREAKING: The leaders of Turkey, Sweden & Finland have just signed a memorandum for the two Nordic states to join NATO, removing a Turkish block to the accession process, a source said.
    “It’s a three-way agreement on accession,” the source said. @jensstoltenberg to make statement


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313

    I wonder what Turkey's price was.
    Not being told to defend itself from Russia.

    Or maybe a forthcoming order for a few hundred of the Bayraktar drones.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Endillion said:

    Has there ever been a previous case where one side of a potential referendum (and the side with the power to authorise it) block it at every turn while weedily insisting they’d win it and the other side are entirely up for it despite not having any certainty of the result?

    If "potential referendum" just means one that never happened, then: yes, an almost infinite number of previous cases.
    Any examples, particularly with the leader of the country it concerns seeking to hold said referendum while the leader of another country with oversight of it hiding in a fridge at any mention of it?
    Well, that's just needlessly restrictive. You've now framed the question so it could only ever be applied to an independence referendum of some kind.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    @haynesdeborah
    BREAKING: The leaders of Turkey, Sweden & Finland have just signed a memorandum for the two Nordic states to join NATO, removing a Turkish block to the accession process, a source said.
    “It’s a three-way agreement on accession,” the source said. @jensstoltenberg to make statement


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313

    I wonder what Turkey's price was.
    Might've been "stop calling us Turkey".
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433

    @haynesdeborah
    BREAKING: The leaders of Turkey, Sweden & Finland have just signed a memorandum for the two Nordic states to join NATO, removing a Turkish block to the accession process, a source said.
    “It’s a three-way agreement on accession,” the source said. @jensstoltenberg to make statement


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313

    I wonder what Turkey's price was.
    Not voting for Christmas?
    Some sage advice?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pro_Rata said:

    Trump urged armed supporters to storm Capitol says aide: BBC

    This is unbelievably brave by the woman testifying.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    @haynesdeborah
    BREAKING: The leaders of Turkey, Sweden & Finland have just signed a memorandum for the two Nordic states to join NATO, removing a Turkish block to the accession process, a source said.
    “It’s a three-way agreement on accession,” the source said. @jensstoltenberg to make statement


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313

    I wonder what Turkey's price was.
    Not voting for Christmas?
    Some sage advice?
    Enough of your sauce, sir.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    If you look at his comments further on, he says it's qualified by the rights of another body ie the foetus

    Which is the hub of the abortion argument in a nutshell. One life or two.

    Saying women having complete autonomy leads logically to the conclusion that a foetus can be terminated up to the point of birth.

    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree , don't say they haven't warned you...

    Tory MP Danny Kruger says he doesn’t agree that “women have an absolute right to bodily autonomy".
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1541778555088011264

    It helps to not be dogmatic.

    Almost everybody would consider terminating a baby the day before birth to be murder.

    And the vast majority would not regard the moment of fertilization (or even at a point where no-one can know if fertilization has taken place) as murder.

    I would regard anything in the first trimester as absolutely fine, and anything in the third to be highly suspect - simply because at that point, they have ceased being foetuses and are now pain-feeling, potentially viable babies.

    The question then becomes where to draw the line. I personally would probably draw it slightly earlier than the UK does, but accept that there are many different views, and that my calculations are not necessarily going to be the same as someone else's.
    I believe that is the viewpoint of the vast majority in the UK and almost certainly a healthy majority in the US.
    And was the case in practice until the SC barrelled in.
    I note @HYUFD saying that the Catholic SC justices are implementing Vatican doctrine. That is the problem right there. They are not there to do this. But to interpret and rule on US law. Their religious faith should not come into it. And if they feel they can't ignore it, then they should recuse themselves or resign.
    It's interesting how such moves, no matter how outrageous or shocking, do serve to shift the overton window nonetheless.

    Lots of pb regulars have argued on here for reductions (some very serious reductions) in the legal abortion limit in the UK in a way over the last few days they weren't doing last week or before.

    It makes me wonder how much of our famed values really are engrained in us or simply a function of social proof.
    I noticed that too. "I don't agree with this but ..." type sentiment. I found it a bit disappointing but good spot. Source of someone's values? That's a big question.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree , don't say they haven't warned you...

    Tory MP Danny Kruger says he doesn’t agree that “women have an absolute right to bodily autonomy".
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1541778555088011264

    Women in this country aren't allowed to have abortions beyond a certain time limit, (except for medical reasons).
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited June 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, well - look at what is in the Public Appointments Newsletter.

    The interesting thing is that the last full-time one Tom Winsor retired in April. Andy Cooke is now the head, a former chief of Liverpool police. It is not entirely clear from the role profile whether he is leaving or not. And why would he leave so soon after being appointed?

    Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary – Her Majesty’s Inspector Constabulary / Inspector of Fire & Rescue Authorities in England

    HM Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services is an independent body that inspects and reports to the public on the efficiency and effectiveness of police forces in England and Wales, fire and rescue authorities in England and national law enforcement agencies.

    ➢ Location: Various
    ➢ Time commitment :37 hours per week
    ➢ ClosingDate:17/07/2022

    Would like to suggest a nomination:

    Deputy Sheriff B. Fife of Mayberry, NC a proven crime-fighter truly dedicated to highest ideals of law enforcement.

    So right there a step up from Met's usual suspects?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    @haynesdeborah
    BREAKING: The leaders of Turkey, Sweden & Finland have just signed a memorandum for the two Nordic states to join NATO, removing a Turkish block to the accession process, a source said.
    “It’s a three-way agreement on accession,” the source said. @jensstoltenberg to make statement


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313

    I wonder what Turkey's price was.
    The obvious thing would be the planes the US wouldn't send them because they'd bought the Russian anti-aircraft missiles. Other thoughts would be something to do with Syria, or simply some money to help with the economy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    If you look at his comments further on, he says it's qualified by the rights of another body ie the foetus

    Which is the hub of the abortion argument in a nutshell. One life or two.

    Saying women having complete autonomy leads logically to the conclusion that a foetus can be terminated up to the point of birth.

    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree , don't say they haven't warned you...

    Tory MP Danny Kruger says he doesn’t agree that “women have an absolute right to bodily autonomy".
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1541778555088011264

    It helps to not be dogmatic.

    Almost everybody would consider terminating a baby the day before birth to be murder.

    And the vast majority would not regard the moment of fertilization (or even at a point where no-one can know if fertilization has taken place) as murder.

    I would regard anything in the first trimester as absolutely fine, and anything in the third to be highly suspect - simply because at that point, they have ceased being foetuses and are now pain-feeling, potentially viable babies.

    The question then becomes where to draw the line. I personally would probably draw it slightly earlier than the UK does, but accept that there are many different views, and that my calculations are not necessarily going to be the same as someone else's.
    I believe that is the viewpoint of the vast majority in the UK and almost certainly a healthy majority in the US.
    And was the case in practice until the SC barrelled in.
    I note @HYUFD saying that the Catholic SC justices are implementing Vatican doctrine. That is the problem right there. They are not there to do this. But to interpret and rule on US law. Their religious faith should not come into it. And if they feel they can't ignore it, then they should recuse themselves or resign.
    It's interesting how such moves, no matter how outrageous or shocking, do serve to shift the overton window nonetheless.

    Lots of pb regulars have argued on here for reductions (some very serious reductions) in the legal abortion limit in the UK in a way over the last few days they weren't doing last week or before.

    It makes me wonder how much of our famed values really are engrained in us or simply a function of social proof.
    How many of those are women ?
    I don't know. It's not a criticism of the individuals either.

    I just think we're far more influenced by contemporary social mores than we'd care to admit.
    Hence my question, as I’m sceptical about that claim.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    ydoethur said:

    @haynesdeborah
    BREAKING: The leaders of Turkey, Sweden & Finland have just signed a memorandum for the two Nordic states to join NATO, removing a Turkish block to the accession process, a source said.
    “It’s a three-way agreement on accession,” the source said. @jensstoltenberg to make statement


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313

    I wonder what Turkey's price was.
    Not voting for Christmas?
    Some sage advice?
    Enough of your sauce, sir.
    All in good thyme
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    @haynesdeborah
    BREAKING: The leaders of Turkey, Sweden & Finland have just signed a memorandum for the two Nordic states to join NATO, removing a Turkish block to the accession process, a source said.
    “It’s a three-way agreement on accession,” the source said. @jensstoltenberg to make statement


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313

    Don't worry, that loud bang in Moscow wasn't a nuke, it was Putin and Lavrov spontaneously combusting.

    I'd like to know what bung Erdogan got what arrangement was reached, but I did say I always thought he would fold on this.
    Inevitable. Didn't really have a veto.
    They absolutely had a veto. We have no idea what they've squeezed out of Biden for this.
    A veto that all knew wouldn't be used. Essentially a little dance.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282

    Best summary from the hearing that I can find is here:

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1541830738210967552

    Ming-boggling thread

    I can see one easy and desolating way this pans out. They try to arrest Trump so as to slam him in jail

    Armed strife follows

    Sometimes I think America WANTS this, They WANT the fight, it’s all going too far for talking
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Alistair said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Trump urged armed supporters to storm Capitol says aide: BBC

    This is unbelievably brave by the woman testifying.
    "Cheney says that Trump allies have been intimidating committee witnesses in messages that sound more like Mafia warnings than communications with a former president’s aides. “He wants me to let you know he’s thinking about you. He knows you’re loyal.” "

    NY Times blog
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    @haynesdeborah
    BREAKING: The leaders of Turkey, Sweden & Finland have just signed a memorandum for the two Nordic states to join NATO, removing a Turkish block to the accession process, a source said.
    “It’s a three-way agreement on accession,” the source said. @jensstoltenberg to make statement


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313

    I wonder what Turkey's price was.
    No doubt a smorgasbord. But reckon the Kurds are NOT going to benefit overmuch.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433

    ydoethur said:

    @haynesdeborah
    BREAKING: The leaders of Turkey, Sweden & Finland have just signed a memorandum for the two Nordic states to join NATO, removing a Turkish block to the accession process, a source said.
    “It’s a three-way agreement on accession,” the source said. @jensstoltenberg to make statement


    https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1541850166390669313

    I wonder what Turkey's price was.
    Not voting for Christmas?
    Some sage advice?
    Enough of your sauce, sir.
    All in good thyme
    I can see I have made a grave-y error. This issue is too much of a hot potato.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Evening all :)

    Mrs Stodge returned last night from the monthly Police meeting and had a grim report of the current state of policing in Newham.

    East Ham High Street is apparently a "crime hot spot" with widespread pickpocketing and other mostly non-violent thefts and anti-social behaviour especially but not exclusively in the evenings. This brought a delegation of store owners and tenants to the meeting to express their "disappointment" (let's say) at the lack of Police action.

    The Beat Sergeant present (who I know and is the one for our patch) held very little back. Normally, each Ward would have a Sergeant, a dedicated Police Officer and a at least two PCOs. None of the East Ham Wards have that strength - most have one Sergeant and a PCO at present. Maintaining any kind of presence is now very difficult and means taking resources from other areas.

    The closure of Police offices across the Borough (gleefully carried out by the then-Mayor of London (whatever happened to him?) under the instructions of the then-Home Secretary (whatever happened to her?) means any suspects taken into custody have to go to either Forest Gate or Stratford which takes officers off patrol for extended periods.

    Yes, new officers have been recruited but most are not seeing out their basic training and are moving into better-paid work elsewhere. The shortage of workers affecting and distorting the whole economy is also being felt in terms of Police recruitment and more importantly retention.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,961
    Not just money then


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    This is where Cassidy Hutchison's desk was in the White House:

    https://twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1541832337721286660

    So, yeh, no way that Trump would have noticed her being as she was like four offices away from him on same corridor and she is an attractive woman.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    My guess is that before this is over, we will be hearing testimony from Ornato, Engle, and Meadows.

    This is explosive stuff. If Cassidy is making this up, they will need to say that. If she isn't they will have to corroborate.

    I know her. I don't think she is lying.

    https://twitter.com/MickMulvaney/status/1541844207974899714

    I would be leaving any large Trump nomination/second term positions open.
    Particularly as it’s not expensive to lay at the moment.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    Alistair said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Trump urged armed supporters to storm Capitol says aide: BBC

    This is unbelievably brave by the woman testifying.
    "Cheney says that Trump allies have been intimidating committee witnesses in messages that sound more like Mafia warnings than communications with a former president’s aides. “He wants me to let you know he’s thinking about you. He knows you’re loyal.” "

    NY Times blog
    Cohen basically said that a couple of years ago, implying that goons would threaten women who Trump wanted silenced. Trump is a liar, crook, and a traitor. And that's just for starters, you can go read up on some of the things that never made it to court when people changed their mind at the last moment for whatever reason.

    I'll be toasting Donald's death when it comes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094
    Leon said:

    Best summary from the hearing that I can find is here:

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1541830738210967552

    Ming-boggling thread

    I can see one easy and desolating way this pans out. They try to arrest Trump so as to slam him in jail

    Armed strife follows

    Sometimes I think America WANTS this, They WANT the fight, it’s all going too far for talking
    69/ According to Hutchinson, Trump said he didn't care how many weapons the mob had "because they're not here to hurt me." He said they were there to march on Congress—with weapons—and that was fine with him.

    This is the biggest political bombshell America has ever heard.

    Ever.


    And all wasted effort. Sad times.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Meanwhile, Maxwell gets 20 years, which will be the tabloid news tonight.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Mrs Stodge returned last night from the monthly Police meeting and had a grim report of the current state of policing in Newham.

    East Ham High Street is apparently a "crime hot spot" with widespread pickpocketing and other mostly non-violent thefts and anti-social behaviour especially but not exclusively in the evenings. This brought a delegation of store owners and tenants to the meeting to express their "disappointment" (let's say) at the lack of Police action.

    The Beat Sergeant present (who I know and is the one for our patch) held very little back. Normally, each Ward would have a Sergeant, a dedicated Police Officer and a at least two PCOs. None of the East Ham Wards have that strength - most have one Sergeant and a PCO at present. Maintaining any kind of presence is now very difficult and means taking resources from other areas.

    The closure of Police offices across the Borough (gleefully carried out by the then-Mayor of London (whatever happened to him?) under the instructions of the then-Home Secretary (whatever happened to her?) means any suspects taken into custody have to go to either Forest Gate or Stratford which takes officers off patrol for extended periods.

    Yes, new officers have been recruited but most are not seeing out their basic training and are moving into better-paid work elsewhere. The shortage of workers affecting and distorting the whole economy is also being felt in terms of Police recruitment and more importantly retention.

    So Boris & Theresa were father & mother of Defund the Police movement?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094

    Alistair said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Trump urged armed supporters to storm Capitol says aide: BBC

    This is unbelievably brave by the woman testifying.
    "Cheney says that Trump allies have been intimidating committee witnesses in messages that sound more like Mafia warnings than communications with a former president’s aides. “He wants me to let you know he’s thinking about you. He knows you’re loyal.” "

    NY Times blog
    That's just creepy, but believable.

    At what point did political loyalty become more like religious devotion?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Following on from that, I'm left with the observation:

    "Where Have All the Workers Gone?"

    I've read conflicting reports suggesting up to half a million have left work since the start of the Pandemic and the number of economically inactive people is at a record level.

    As staff leave and aren't replaced, what then for those left? Longer hours, more stress until they walk or are forced to go? It's a serious problem for which, it seems, no one in Government (or Opposition to be fair) and a problem to which no one in Government (or Opposition to be fair) has any solutions.

    One might have thought spending money on improving business processes and especially using more automaton might be an approach but that would be a sea change after years of cheap and plentiful labour but one which businesses and institutions might want to consider if possible or practical.

    Anecdotally, I hear of big problems within the adult social care sector, both private and public, concerning retention of qualified social workers and key carers.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    Leon said:

    Best summary from the hearing that I can find is here:

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1541830738210967552

    Ming-boggling thread

    I can see one easy and desolating way this pans out. They try to arrest Trump so as to slam him in jail

    Armed strife follows

    Sometimes I think America WANTS this, They WANT the fight, it’s all going too far for talking
    A "heart attack" on the golf course might be one way out for all concerned (not The Donald though obviously...)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Trump urged armed supporters to storm Capitol says aide: BBC

    This is unbelievably brave by the woman testifying.
    "Cheney says that Trump allies have been intimidating committee witnesses in messages that sound more like Mafia warnings than communications with a former president’s aides. “He wants me to let you know he’s thinking about you. He knows you’re loyal.” "

    NY Times blog
    That's just creepy, but believable.

    At what point did political loyalty become more like religious devotion?
    When the cult took over.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Meanwhile, Maxwell gets 20 years, which will be the tabloid news tonight.

    Does that include time already spent in jail?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Leon said:

    Best summary from the hearing that I can find is here:

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1541830738210967552

    Ming-boggling thread

    I can see one easy and desolating way this pans out. They try to arrest Trump so as to slam him in jail

    Armed strife follows

    Sometimes I think America WANTS this, They WANT the fight, it’s all going too far for talking
    Is it possible Trump might move to a country without an extradition treaty with the United States, and still contest the next presidential election?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Cheney's closing is stunning: they think they have evidence of witness tampering and obstruction of justice.
    There is an old maxim: it's never the crime, it's always the coverup.
    Things went very badly for the former President today. My guess is that it will get worse from here

    https://twitter.com/MickMulvaney/status/1541858206720434179

    Not some rando’s opinion - acting White House chief of staff 2019-2020.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Leon said:

    Best summary from the hearing that I can find is here:

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1541830738210967552

    Ming-boggling thread

    I can see one easy and desolating way this pans out. They try to arrest Trump so as to slam him in jail

    Armed strife follows

    Sometimes I think America WANTS this, They WANT the fight, it’s all going too far for talking
    All the pro-Trump bloggers used to claim Biden and all his people were about to be arrested and Trump would be returned as the legitimate President.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    edited June 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    If you look at his comments further on, he says it's qualified by the rights of another body ie the foetus

    Which is the hub of the abortion argument in a nutshell. One life or two.

    Saying women having complete autonomy leads logically to the conclusion that a foetus can be terminated up to the point of birth.

    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree , don't say they haven't warned you...

    Tory MP Danny Kruger says he doesn’t agree that “women have an absolute right to bodily autonomy".
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1541778555088011264

    It helps to not be dogmatic.

    Almost everybody would consider terminating a baby the day before birth to be murder.

    And the vast majority would not regard the moment of fertilization (or even at a point where no-one can know if fertilization has taken place) as murder.

    I would regard anything in the first trimester as absolutely fine, and anything in the third to be highly suspect - simply because at that point, they have ceased being foetuses and are now pain-feeling, potentially viable babies.

    The question then becomes where to draw the line. I personally would probably draw it slightly earlier than the UK does, but accept that there are many different views, and that my calculations are not necessarily going to be the same as someone else's.
    I believe that is the viewpoint of the vast majority in the UK and almost certainly a healthy majority in the US.
    And was the case in practice until the SC barrelled in.
    I note @HYUFD saying that the Catholic SC justices are implementing Vatican doctrine. That is the problem right there. They are not there to do this. But to interpret and rule on US law. Their religious faith should not come into it. And if they feel they can't ignore it, then they should recuse themselves or resign.
    It's interesting how such moves, no matter how outrageous or shocking, do serve to shift the overton window nonetheless.

    Lots of pb regulars have argued on here for reductions (some very serious reductions) in the legal abortion limit in the UK in a way over the last few days they weren't doing last week or before.

    It makes me wonder how much of our famed values really are engrained in us or simply a function of social proof.
    How many of those are women ?
    I don't know. It's not a criticism of the individuals either.

    I just think we're far more influenced by contemporary social mores than we'd care to admit.
    Hence my question, as I’m sceptical about that claim.
    From my seat it wasn't so much people arguing for tighter limits here, it was more lots of distractive waffle about "difficult issue", "two sides to it", "all they've done is reversed bad law and sent it back to the states" etc.

    But let's me not refight things from only yesterday. I'll go mad if I keep doing that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Best summary from the hearing that I can find is here:

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1541830738210967552

    Ming-boggling thread

    I can see one easy and desolating way this pans out. They try to arrest Trump so as to slam him in jail

    Armed strife follows

    Sometimes I think America WANTS this, They WANT the fight, it’s all going too far for talking
    69/ According to Hutchinson, Trump said he didn't care how many weapons the mob had "because they're not here to hurt me." He said they were there to march on Congress—with weapons—and that was fine with him.

    This is the biggest political bombshell America has ever heard.

    Ever.


    And all wasted effort. Sad times.
    "she stands in a class of her own: someone who was repeatedly in the physical presence of Donald Trump and his top agent in Washington, Mark Meadows. That’s simply *huge*. "

    Seth Abramson

    Trump: I barely know who she is

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Leon said:

    Best summary from the hearing that I can find is here:

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1541830738210967552

    Ming-boggling thread

    I can see one easy and desolating way this pans out. They try to arrest Trump so as to slam him in jail

    Armed strife follows

    Sometimes I think America WANTS this, They WANT the fight, it’s all going too far for talking
    The caps suggest that’s you, as much as America “wanting this”.

    They won’t slam him in jail; they will drag him through the courts for a long, long time first.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Maybe, just maybe, the revelation that he tried to wrestle the car's steering wheel from his security team in order to join the insurrection will finally be enough to wake enough american citizens to the looming end of their demos republic if they don't jail him and bar him from office before 2024.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,589
    edited June 2022

    This is where Cassidy Hutchison's desk was in the White House:

    https://twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1541832337721286660

    So, yeh, no way that Trump would have noticed her being as she was like four offices away from him on same corridor and she is an attractive woman.
    Remember Brown not being aware of McBride's attempted Red Rag smear of Cameron? ;)

    Although McBride was not an attractive woman, and I doubt Brown was attracted to him in the least. At least looks-wise.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    This is where Cassidy Hutchison's desk was in the White House:

    https://twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1541832337721286660

    So, yeh, no way that Trump would have noticed her being as she was like four offices away from him on same corridor and she is an attractive woman.
    Remember Brown not being aware of McBride's attempted Red Rag smear of Cameron? ;)

    Although McBride was not an attractive woman, and I doubt Brown was attracted to him in the least. At least looks-wise.
    Nicola Sturgeon couldn't remember whether she'd tried to interfere with due process when her predecessor was charged with sexual assault.

    Politicians have oddly bad memories sometimes...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433
    Nigelb said:

    Cheney's closing is stunning: they think they have evidence of witness tampering and obstruction of justice.
    There is an old maxim: it's never the crime, it's always the coverup.
    Things went very badly for the former President today. My guess is that it will get worse from here

    https://twitter.com/MickMulvaney/status/1541858206720434179

    Not some rando’s opinion - acting White House chief of staff 2019-2020.

    It seems pretty obvious that he was delighted that people were rioting on his behalf. And I am sure witnesses have been leant on not to testify against him. That's not really new information; it's still not a coup, and I think it's a little naive to think this sort of show trial will shift the dial given the polarisation of the discussion. Those who sympathise with Trump will just see the Democrats settling scores. Those already outraged by Trump will be still more outraged.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Best summary from the hearing that I can find is here:

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1541830738210967552

    Ming-boggling thread

    I can see one easy and desolating way this pans out. They try to arrest Trump so as to slam him in jail

    Armed strife follows

    Sometimes I think America WANTS this, They WANT the fight, it’s all going too far for talking
    The caps suggest that’s you, as much as America “wanting this”.

    They won’t slam him in jail; they will drag him through the courts for a long, long time first.
    Don’t be an arse. America is the last best guarantor of western freedom. It is bad enough it is in such perilous decline, I don’t want it convulsed in actual civil strife, turning away from its allies

    Imagine the Ukraine war without America firmly behind us, supporting Europe. Putin would be in Riga by Friday and Warsaw by the weekend

    I absolutely despise the American Left but right now, right this minute, the best thing that can happen and the first thing that must happen is this: the monstrous Trump should be dragged away and silenced, forever, but in a manner that somehow does not provoke his followers

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Nigelb said:

    Cheney's closing is stunning: they think they have evidence of witness tampering and obstruction of justice.
    There is an old maxim: it's never the crime, it's always the coverup.
    Things went very badly for the former President today. My guess is that it will get worse from here

    https://twitter.com/MickMulvaney/status/1541858206720434179

    Not some rando’s opinion - acting White House chief of staff 2019-2020.

    Clearly guilty but good luck getting a jury to convict......nothing has changed imo.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    This is where Cassidy Hutchison's desk was in the White House:

    https://twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1541832337721286660

    So, yeh, no way that Trump would have noticed her being as she was like four offices away from him on same corridor and she is an attractive woman.
    Remember Brown not being aware of McBride's attempted Red Rag smear of Cameron? ;)

    Although McBride was not an attractive woman, and I doubt Brown was attracted to him in the least. At least looks-wise.
    Don't remember. But to be honest, whatever this event was, it does not compare with an attempted coup and violent insurrection with threats to literally kill the veep.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Nigelb said:

    Cheney's closing is stunning: they think they have evidence of witness tampering and obstruction of justice.
    There is an old maxim: it's never the crime, it's always the coverup.
    Things went very badly for the former President today. My guess is that it will get worse from here

    https://twitter.com/MickMulvaney/status/1541858206720434179

    Not some rando’s opinion - acting White House chief of staff 2019-2020.

    🤞🤞🤞
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Andy_JS said:

    Good afternoon. Isn't it more likely that a Tory MP would defect to the LDs than Labour?

    My MP in the (by that time- 2000?) very safe seat of Leominster, a longstanding Conservative MP and son of a Conservative MP, the very urbane Peter Temple-Morris crossed the floor (via Independent). He was made a Lord after the next election by Blair and never seemed to regret his decision. He was still involved in policy advising up to his death during the Corbyn era.

    Am I correct in my reading that you see such a move as akin to trading the Maybach for a Moskvitch?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Politico.com - Ghislaine Maxwell sentenced to 20 years in prison
    The sentence was the punctuation mark on a trial that explored the sordid rituals of a predator power couple who courted the rich and famous as they lured vulnerable girls and then exploited them.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/28/ghislaine-maxwell-prison-jeffrey-epstein-00042874
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    I have just increased my lay position on him for the nomination at around 2.6.
    Seems value to me, FWIW.

    My guess is that it doesn’t stay under 3 for many more days.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Key GOP pollster:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    28m
    Not only was today’s hearing devastating to Donald Trump, I’m told by law experts that people will end up in jail as a result.

    Today’s hearings will have serious legal, political, and electoral consequences. Guaranteed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Seems to me it is a race against time now to save the republic by blocking Trump from running.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    Politico.com - Ghislaine Maxwell sentenced to 20 years in prison
    The sentence was the punctuation mark on a trial that explored the sordid rituals of a predator power couple who courted the rich and famous as they lured vulnerable girls and then exploited them.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/28/ghislaine-maxwell-prison-jeffrey-epstein-00042874

    Bloody annoying it happened today as it may bump the Trump coup news off some papers and cable news channels.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    Seems to me it is a race against time now to save the republic by blocking Trump from running.

    True, but a shame that the race finished on 13 February 2021.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282

    Politico.com - Ghislaine Maxwell sentenced to 20 years in prison
    The sentence was the punctuation mark on a trial that explored the sordid rituals of a predator power couple who courted the rich and famous as they lured vulnerable girls and then exploited them.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/28/ghislaine-maxwell-prison-jeffrey-epstein-00042874

    Bit harsh on the Clintons
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cheney's closing is stunning: they think they have evidence of witness tampering and obstruction of justice.
    There is an old maxim: it's never the crime, it's always the coverup.
    Things went very badly for the former President today. My guess is that it will get worse from here

    https://twitter.com/MickMulvaney/status/1541858206720434179

    Not some rando’s opinion - acting White House chief of staff 2019-2020.

    🤞🤞🤞

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    49m
    Also: Cassidy Hutchinson is testifying under oath – her detractors on Truth Social are not.

    If she’s lying, she will go to jail.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    1h
    A sign of hope for America:
    Bennie Thompson, a Democratic member of Congress born in segregated Mississippi; Liz Cheney, a Republican member of Congress risking her political future; and Cassidy Hutchinson, a young woman telling the truth when her elders have avoided doing so.

    https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1541849620963368963
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,282
    Still, another slow news week, huh

    I remember when PB was properly exciting. One day a council by election in Newent, three days later, ANOTHER council by election in Newent, one after the other. Then at the weekend we’d talk about rugby league

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Best summary from the hearing that I can find is here:

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1541830738210967552

    Ming-boggling thread

    I can see one easy and desolating way this pans out. They try to arrest Trump so as to slam him in jail

    Armed strife follows

    Sometimes I think America WANTS this, They WANT the fight, it’s all going too far for talking
    69/ According to Hutchinson, Trump said he didn't care how many weapons the mob had "because they're not here to hurt me." He said they were there to march on Congress—with weapons—and that was fine with him.

    This is the biggest political bombshell America has ever heard.

    Ever.


    And all wasted effort. Sad times.
    "she stands in a class of her own: someone who was repeatedly in the physical presence of Donald Trump and his top agent in Washington, Mark Meadows. That’s simply *huge*. "

    Seth Abramson

    Trump: I barely know who she is

    See no reason to doubt THAT statement. She was an intern.

    Doubt she was in same league re: presidential access as Monica Lewinsky.

    But she WAS there alright, as 45 "barely" acknowledges.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Key GOP pollster:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    28m
    Not only was today’s hearing devastating to Donald Trump, I’m told by law experts that people will end up in jail as a result.

    Today’s hearings will have serious legal, political, and electoral consequences. Guaranteed.

    Thing that strikes me as MOST devastating, is that today's revelations by as low-level as staffer as you can get above custodian.

    Meaning that rest of the entourage are cowardly scum?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Andy_JS said:

    Good afternoon. Isn't it more likely that a Tory MP would defect to the LDs than Labour?

    My MP in the (by that time- 2000?) very safe seat of Leominster, a longstanding Conservative MP and son of a Conservative MP, the very urbane Peter Temple-Morris crossed the floor (via Independent). He was made a Lord after the next election by Blair and never seemed to regret his decision. He was still involved in policy advising up to his death during the Corbyn era.

    Am I correct in my reading that you see such a move as akin to trading the Maybach for a Moskvitch?
    I don't really have any political biases, I'm just interested in psephology.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    Seems to me it is a race against time now to save the republic by blocking Trump from running.

    "A republic sits on a razor's edge!"
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    edited June 2022

    Key GOP pollster:

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    28m
    Not only was today’s hearing devastating to Donald Trump, I’m told by law experts that people will end up in jail as a result.

    Today’s hearings will have serious legal, political, and electoral consequences. Guaranteed.

    And the big one - my Trump short to pay off. 🙂

    My rationale was always that SOMETHING would happen to prevent the unhappenable.

    Could this be it?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    edited June 2022

    Meaning that rest of the entourage are cowardly scum?

    Yes, and we already knew that.

    There has been a whole stream of weasels writing books about all the awful things Trump said and did that they never mentioned until the party was over and they could cash in. Cowardly scum is generous, hopefully justice will eventually get around to wringing their necks.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Good afternoon. Isn't it more likely that a Tory MP would defect to the LDs than Labour?

    My MP in the (by that time- 2000?) very safe seat of Leominster, a longstanding Conservative MP and son of a Conservative MP, the very urbane Peter Temple-Morris crossed the floor (via Independent). He was made a Lord after the next election by Blair and never seemed to regret his decision. He was still involved in policy advising up to his death during the Corbyn era.

    Am I correct in my reading that you see such a move as akin to trading the Maybach for a Moskvitch?
    I don't really have any political biases, I'm just interested in psephology.
    Did you hear about the scarecrow that became a psephologist?

    He was really into straw polls...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon said:

    Politico.com - Ghislaine Maxwell sentenced to 20 years in prison
    The sentence was the punctuation mark on a trial that explored the sordid rituals of a predator power couple who courted the rich and famous as they lured vulnerable girls and then exploited them.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/28/ghislaine-maxwell-prison-jeffrey-epstein-00042874

    Bit harsh on the Clintons
    Meaning Bill Clinton? Hell yes.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Best summary from the hearing that I can find is here:

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1541830738210967552

    Ming-boggling thread

    I can see one easy and desolating way this pans out. They try to arrest Trump so as to slam him in jail

    Armed strife follows

    Sometimes I think America WANTS this, They WANT the fight, it’s all going too far for talking
    The caps suggest that’s you, as much as America “wanting this”.

    They won’t slam him in jail; they will drag him through the courts for a long, long time first.
    Don’t be an arse. America is the last best guarantor of western freedom. It is bad enough it is in such perilous decline, I don’t want it convulsed in actual civil strife, turning away from its allies

    Imagine the Ukraine war without America firmly behind us, supporting Europe. Putin would be in Riga by Friday and Warsaw by the weekend

    I absolutely despise the American Left but right now, right this minute, the best thing that can happen and the first thing that must happen is this: the monstrous Trump should be dragged away and silenced, forever, but in a manner that somehow does not provoke his followers

    How?

    When you consider the bonkers nonsense that the American right have come up with and the fluency with which DJT lies, how is he brought down without his followers being provoked?

    And the good right, who have sat on their hands for the last six years or so... what do they do? "I wasn't shocked before but now I am" is going to have to work awfully hard to cut it.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Nigelb said:

    Cheney's closing is stunning: they think they have evidence of witness tampering and obstruction of justice.
    There is an old maxim: it's never the crime, it's always the coverup.
    Things went very badly for the former President today. My guess is that it will get worse from here

    https://twitter.com/MickMulvaney/status/1541858206720434179

    Not some rando’s opinion - acting White House chief of staff 2019-2020.

    Clearly guilty but good luck getting a jury to convict......nothing has changed imo.
    Do you mean, a federal jury in Southern District of New York?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    edited June 2022
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Best summary from the hearing that I can find is here:

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1541830738210967552

    Ming-boggling thread

    I can see one easy and desolating way this pans out. They try to arrest Trump so as to slam him in jail

    Armed strife follows

    Sometimes I think America WANTS this, They WANT the fight, it’s all going too far for talking
    The caps suggest that’s you, as much as America “wanting this”.

    They won’t slam him in jail; they will drag him through the courts for a long, long time first.
    Don’t be an arse. America is the last best guarantor of western freedom. It is bad enough it is in such perilous decline, I don’t want it convulsed in actual civil strife, turning away from its allies

    Imagine the Ukraine war without America firmly behind us, supporting Europe. Putin would be in Riga by Friday and Warsaw by the weekend

    I absolutely despise the American Left but right now, right this minute, the best thing that can happen and the first thing that must happen is this: the monstrous Trump should be dragged away and silenced, forever, but in a manner that somehow does not provoke his followers
    They'll find a way. I don't know exactly who the 'they' are. Or exactly what the way is that they'll find. But they will find a way. Of that I am sure. Well almost.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310

    Meanwhile, Maxwell gets 20 years, which will be the tabloid news tonight.

    Will any of the abusers of those girls get dragged to court? Those in the US for instance?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Best summary from the hearing that I can find is here:

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1541830738210967552

    Ming-boggling thread

    I can see one easy and desolating way this pans out. They try to arrest Trump so as to slam him in jail

    Armed strife follows

    Sometimes I think America WANTS this, They WANT the fight, it’s all going too far for talking
    The caps suggest that’s you, as much as America “wanting this”.

    They won’t slam him in jail; they will drag him through the courts for a long, long time first.
    Don’t be an arse. America is the last best guarantor of western freedom. It is bad enough it is in such perilous decline, I don’t want it convulsed in actual civil strife, turning away from its allies

    Imagine the Ukraine war without America firmly behind us, supporting Europe. Putin would be in Riga by Friday and Warsaw by the weekend

    I absolutely despise the American Left but right now, right this minute, the best thing that can happen and the first thing that must happen is this: the monstrous Trump should be dragged away and silenced, forever, but in a manner that somehow does not provoke his followers

    If I’ve misinterpreted you, then I’m glad to be corrected.

    But I think you misunderstand how this is likely to play out. One thing the US system is still really good at is dragging out these processes in a way that allows tempers to cool.
    Expect this to lead to a load more confirmatory witnesses.

    By the end, Watergate bored the pants off half of America, but it did for Nixon.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Be wary of the Seth Abramson feed. Whilst in this case it looks solid and factual recounting of the testimony he does have a habit of wild editorialising at time with massive speculative anti-Trump stuff.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    Nigelb said:

    Cheney's closing is stunning: they think they have evidence of witness tampering and obstruction of justice.
    There is an old maxim: it's never the crime, it's always the coverup.
    Things went very badly for the former President today. My guess is that it will get worse from here

    https://twitter.com/MickMulvaney/status/1541858206720434179

    Not some rando’s opinion - acting White House chief of staff 2019-2020.

    Clearly guilty but good luck getting a jury to convict......nothing has changed imo.
    Do you mean, a federal jury in Southern District of New York?
    No idea where it would be tried, but wouldn't even questions like that be passed up to the supreme court? Both taking ages and favouring Trump. Also, if the Republicans take control of the House as expected, can they use a further inquiry to hold up any court actions?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Politico.com - Ghislaine Maxwell sentenced to 20 years in prison
    The sentence was the punctuation mark on a trial that explored the sordid rituals of a predator power couple who courted the rich and famous as they lured vulnerable girls and then exploited them.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/28/ghislaine-maxwell-prison-jeffrey-epstein-00042874

    Bloody annoying it happened today as it may bump the Trump coup news off some papers and cable news channels.
    Not in USA methinks. La Ghislaine is old news here.

    Fact that she got book thrown at her NOT a surprise; opposite would have been.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Still, another slow news week, huh

    I remember when PB was properly exciting. One day a council by election in Newent, three days later, ANOTHER council by election in Newent, one after the other. Then at the weekend we’d talk about rugby league

    :lol:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    Politico.com - Ghislaine Maxwell sentenced to 20 years in prison
    The sentence was the punctuation mark on a trial that explored the sordid rituals of a predator power couple who courted the rich and famous as they lured vulnerable girls and then exploited them.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/28/ghislaine-maxwell-prison-jeffrey-epstein-00042874

    Bloody annoying it happened today as it may bump the Trump coup news off some papers and cable news channels.
    Not in USA methinks. La Ghislaine is old news here.

    Fact that she got book thrown at her NOT a surprise; opposite would have been.
    Suicide watch for rest of her days?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,589

    Nigelb said:

    Cheney's closing is stunning: they think they have evidence of witness tampering and obstruction of justice.
    There is an old maxim: it's never the crime, it's always the coverup.
    Things went very badly for the former President today. My guess is that it will get worse from here

    https://twitter.com/MickMulvaney/status/1541858206720434179

    Not some rando’s opinion - acting White House chief of staff 2019-2020.

    It seems pretty obvious that he was delighted that people were rioting on his behalf. And I am sure witnesses have been leant on not to testify against him. That's not really new information; it's still not a coup, and I think it's a little naive to think this sort of show trial will shift the dial given the polarisation of the discussion. Those who sympathise with Trump will just see the Democrats settling scores. Those already outraged by Trump will be still more outraged.
    Yes, comrade.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,633
    edited June 2022
    Alistair said:

    Be wary of the Seth Abramson feed. Whilst in this case it looks solid and factual recounting of the testimony he does have a habit of wild editorialising at time with massive speculative anti-Trump stuff.

    I haven't followed all of the testimony, but one thing that doesn't fit with the planned coup narrative is the number of people close to Trump who were obviously shocked and were warning him to tell people to go home. It suggests something more like a lone ego trip.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Cyclefree said:

    Meanwhile, Maxwell gets 20 years, which will be the tabloid news tonight.

    Will any of the abusers of those girls get dragged to court? Those in the US for instance?
    Hollywood, Wall Street and DC say no, leave us alone
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Best summary from the hearing that I can find is here:

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1541830738210967552

    Ming-boggling thread

    I can see one easy and desolating way this pans out. They try to arrest Trump so as to slam him in jail

    Armed strife follows

    Sometimes I think America WANTS this, They WANT the fight, it’s all going too far for talking
    The caps suggest that’s you, as much as America “wanting this”.

    They won’t slam him in jail; they will drag him through the courts for a long, long time first.
    Don’t be an arse. America is the last best guarantor of western freedom. It is bad enough it is in such perilous decline, I don’t want it convulsed in actual civil strife, turning away from its allies

    Imagine the Ukraine war without America firmly behind us, supporting Europe. Putin would be in Riga by Friday and Warsaw by the weekend

    I absolutely despise the American Left but right now, right this minute, the best thing that can happen and the first thing that must happen is this: the monstrous Trump should be dragged away and silenced, forever, but in a manner that somehow does not provoke his followers
    They'll find a way. I don't know exactly who the 'they' are. Or exactly what the way is that they'll find. But they will find a way. Of that I am sure. Well almost.
    One of Trump's claims was that there was a shadowy Deep State in America secretly running things.

    Let's hope he was right and they are about to lock him up to save democracy.


  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    Leon said:

    Best summary from the hearing that I can find is here:

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1541830738210967552

    Ming-boggling thread

    I can see one easy and desolating way this pans out. They try to arrest Trump so as to slam him in jail

    Armed strife follows

    Sometimes I think America WANTS this, They WANT the fight, it’s all going too far for talking
    Some of the testimony tonight is mind-blowing. America was a great place. Was. Past-tense.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    I haven't followed all of the testimony, but one thing that doesn't fit with the planned coup narrative is the number of people close to Trump who were obviously shocked and were warning him to tell people to go home. It suggests something more like a lone ego trip.

    Those people were mostly Whitehouse staff, it's the GOP people who were egging him on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094

    Alistair said:

    Be wary of the Seth Abramson feed. Whilst in this case it looks solid and factual recounting of the testimony he does have a habit of wild editorialising at time with massive speculative anti-Trump stuff.

    I haven't followed all of the testimony, but one thing that doesn't fit with the planned coup narrative is the number of people close to Trump who were obviously shocked and were warning him to tell people to go home. It suggests something more like a lone ego trip.
    Ah, if it was not well planned and some people were not on board with it when it got a bit out of hand, then it cannot have been a coup.

    Fine, let's stick with insurrection.
This discussion has been closed.