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Betting YES on a CON MP defecting to LAB might be value – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 3 in General
imageBetting YES on a CON MP defecting to LAB might be value – politicalbetting.com

With the Telegraph reporting that three CON MPs are in active discussion about crossing the floor to join LAB the above bet from Smarkets looks might be value. According to the paper:

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,523
    First.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 133
    edited June 28
    The same Telegraph who previously said that 12 Conservatives were about to defect to UKIP (remember them?)?

    ps - SECOND - like 1/60th of a minute
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited June 28
    Third, like defectors deserve to finish at the next election if they don't call a by election first...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,192
    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,145
    The Labour Party conference is in September. If you were going to defect, you’d probably want to wait until then, so I’d bet no on this market that goes up to August only.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,285
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Never going to happen....
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 1,947
    I wonder whether @Tissue_Price is one of them?
  • eekeek Posts: 21,002
    The thing worth noting is that Labour are currently sorting out seats for the next election in case Bozo decides to hold a snap election in the autumn.

    So if a Tory wished to defect to Labour and retain their seat they haven't got long to do so.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,848
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,907

    I wonder whether @Tissue_Price is one of them?

    Zero chance.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,103
    edited June 28
    The population of England and Wales has risen to 59,597,300, results of the 2021 census show. It grew by more than 3.5 million (6.3%) since the last census in 2011 and there are more people over 65 than ever.

    Some large towns and cities have seen their populations fall, including Sunderland, Gateshead, Swansea and the London boroughs of Kensington and Chelsea, Camden and Westminster. The place with the biggest increases was the east London borough of Tower Hamlets, where the population grew by 22.1%.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61966084

    I fail to believe in reality those London boroughs are really down, got to be COVID related relocations.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,373
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Never going to happen....
    Obviously, but that’s not the point.

    The point is to demonstrate to independence ultras that she is committed to the cause, and more so to provoke the UKG to some repressive manoeuvre that inflames indy support.

    There’s decent polling evidence that a narrow but definite majority consider all of this constitutional obsession as a distraction from the task of government, and the UKG should give some thought on how to magnify that impression.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,192
    So basically, the FM says whatever the ruling over legality of a referendum or not, then it will be an argument for independence.
    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1541779658726948864
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,120
    edited June 28
    I'm starting to think that Boris himself is behind these defection stories. Put it about that the Red Wallers are a bit flaky, disloyal and Labourish, so that when their priorities - levelling up, Brexit to their satisfaction etc. - aren't delivered no one will give a stuff if they're upset. This might just all be an exercise in cutting the Red Wallers loose before embarking on a massive core-vote operation (the T&H result being the big wake-up call).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    Scott_xP said:

    So basically, the FM says whatever the ruling over legality of a referendum or not, then it will be an argument for independence.
    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1541779658726948864

    Which the UK government would ignore as the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,523

    The population of England and Wales has risen to 59,597,300, results of the 2021 census show. It grew by more than 3.5 million (6.3%) since the last census in 2011 and there are more people over 65 than ever.

    Some large towns and cities have seen their populations fall, including Sunderland, Gateshead, Swansea and the London boroughs of Kensington and Chelsea, Camden and Westminster. The place with the biggest increases was the east London borough of Tower Hamlets, where the population grew by 22.1%.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61966084

    I fail to believe in reality those London boroughs are really down, got to be COVID related relocations.

    Kensington and Chelsea was down in 2011 compared with 2001, so it would just be a continuation of a trend.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,517

    The population of England and Wales has risen to 59,597,300, results of the 2021 census show. It grew by more than 3.5 million (6.3%) since the last census in 2011 and there are more people over 65 than ever.

    Some large towns and cities have seen their populations fall, including Sunderland, Gateshead, Swansea and the London boroughs of Kensington and Chelsea, Camden and Westminster. The place with the biggest increases was the east London borough of Tower Hamlets, where the population grew by 22.1%.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61966084

    I fail to believe in reality those London boroughs are really down, got to be COVID related relocations.

    As stated OPT. Kensington and Chelsea for one has been falling since 2001.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,517
    Extraordinary poor value.
    I'm old enough to remember when three Labour Red Wall MP's were feverishly reported to be joining the Tories to retain their seats.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,182
    edited June 28
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/28/no-10-to-ditch-defence-spending-manifesto-pledge

    Somewhat startled by this especially after the discussion on the previous thread.

    "Downing Street is expected to ditch its manifesto commitment to increase the defence budget by at least 0.5% above inflation every year, putting Boris Johnson on a potential collision course with the defence secretary.

    Ben Wallace, who is joining Johnson at the Nato summit in Madrid this week, has reportedly written to the prime minister to call for the defence budget to be increased to 2.5% of GDP by 2028. It is currently just over 2.1%."
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,517
    dixiedean said:

    The population of England and Wales has risen to 59,597,300, results of the 2021 census show. It grew by more than 3.5 million (6.3%) since the last census in 2011 and there are more people over 65 than ever.

    Some large towns and cities have seen their populations fall, including Sunderland, Gateshead, Swansea and the London boroughs of Kensington and Chelsea, Camden and Westminster. The place with the biggest increases was the east London borough of Tower Hamlets, where the population grew by 22.1%.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61966084

    I fail to believe in reality those London boroughs are really down, got to be COVID related relocations.

    As stated OPT. Kensington and Chelsea for one has been falling since 2001.
    Edit. See @tlg is quicker to the loose ball.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,182
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    I didn't know that that generation crap of yours was in the Canadian constitution.

    Clue: it's not in the UK one either.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,002
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,523
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    The population of England and Wales has risen to 59,597,300, results of the 2021 census show. It grew by more than 3.5 million (6.3%) since the last census in 2011 and there are more people over 65 than ever.

    Some large towns and cities have seen their populations fall, including Sunderland, Gateshead, Swansea and the London boroughs of Kensington and Chelsea, Camden and Westminster. The place with the biggest increases was the east London borough of Tower Hamlets, where the population grew by 22.1%.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61966084

    I fail to believe in reality those London boroughs are really down, got to be COVID related relocations.

    As stated OPT. Kensington and Chelsea for one has been falling since 2001.
    Edit. See @tlg is quicker to the loose ball.
    I'm feeling old today. The number 56,075,912 is printed on my mind as I knew it off by heart during the 2011 Census. Seems weird seeing it quoted again today.

    K&C was one of 14 or so local authorities with declining populations in 2011. I think Barrow-in-Furness had the biggest fall in population on 2001.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    When's the third referendum?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
    The only way for that to happen is for the separatists to win. Any defeat, they'll just start agitating for a new vote the next day.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    edited June 28
    Applicant said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
    The only way for that to happen is for the separatists to win. Any defeat, they'll just start agitating for a new vote the next day.
    Hence refuse one for a generation.

    Allow one now and a separatist win means Scexit and Scexit negotiations dominate this decade as Brexit dominated most of the last 10 years
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,373
    The best outcome from the UKG’s perspective is for the referendum to go ahead but be boycotted by unionist voters.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,182
    HYUFD said:

    Applicant said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
    The only way for that to happen is for the separatists to win. Any defeat, they'll just start agitating for a new vote the next day.
    Hence refuse one for a generation.

    Allow one now and a separatist win means Scexit and Scexit negotiations dominate this decade as Brexit dominated most of the last 10 years
    You'll need another new carpet at this rate.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,437
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    A full generation since the last one then.....
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,661
    We will get the redfield red wall tracker at 5, be interesting to see if red wall polling is as stable as national
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,517
    Applicant said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
    The only way for that to happen is for the separatists to win. Any defeat, they'll just start agitating for a new vote the next day.
    However.
    The lesson of Quebec was that a second defeat, even by a tiny margin, killed it stone dead.
    It hasn't returned. So that isn't inevitable at all. Even if they are different cases.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,398
    edited June 28

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    A full generation since the last one then.....
    I thought the SNP had found some clever constitutional loophole or something. Seems like they’ll just plod on with it (in the midst of a cost of living crisis, in the face of Russian aggression and huge global uncertainty). Dunno - it’s an interesting tactic
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,907
    Scotland should be able to have as many referendums on independence as it wishes. In reality losing a second would cook the SNP's goose at Holyrood and Westminster. They wouldn't turn to a third in a subsequent manifesto, suddenly their focus would be on "doing the best for Scotland".
    Continually denying them the opportunity to lose again will always drive their support though.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,182
    dixiedean said:

    Applicant said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
    The only way for that to happen is for the separatists to win. Any defeat, they'll just start agitating for a new vote the next day.
    However.
    The lesson of Quebec was that a second defeat, even by a tiny margin, killed it stone dead.
    It hasn't returned. So that isn't inevitable at all. Even if they are different cases.
    I also notice that PB Unionists are equating SNP = pro indyref when that is not the case at all, for the SGs are being completely forgotten - indeed, that is how there is a mandate for a referendum in both Parliaments (just to keep everyone happy).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 26,353
    dixiedean said:

    Applicant said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
    The only way for that to happen is for the separatists to win. Any defeat, they'll just start agitating for a new vote the next day.
    However.
    The lesson of Quebec was that a second defeat, even by a tiny margin, killed it stone dead.
    It hasn't returned. So that isn't inevitable at all. Even if they are different cases.
    Not quite true. Quebec separatism is stirring again - after a long period of quiescence

    Of all the western sub-nations clamouring for indy, Quebec is the one that would likely make the best fist of it

    All the EU regions (Catalunya, Basque Country, Corsica) are bedevilled by the EU issue. Scotland is bedevilled by the EU, currency, bank

    Quebec has some economic issues but it speaks a different lingo and has vast resources
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,936
    HYUFD said:

    Applicant said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
    The only way for that to happen is for the separatists to win. Any defeat, they'll just start agitating for a new vote the next day.
    Hence refuse one for a generation.

    Allow one now and a separatist win means Scexit and Scexit negotiations dominate this decade as Brexit dominated most of the last 10 years
    Remember HY, lose Scotland, and England, Wales and Northern Ireland get Johnson sine die. What's not to like?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,995
    @Cyclefree , don't say they haven't warned you...

    Tory MP Danny Kruger says he doesn’t agree that “women have an absolute right to bodily autonomy".
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1541778555088011264
  • LeonLeon Posts: 26,353

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    A full generation since the last one then.....
    I thought the SNP had found some clever constitutional loophole or something. Seems like they’ll just plod on with it (in the midst of a cost of living crisis, in the face of Russian aggression and huge global uncertainty). Dunno - it’s an interesting tactic
    Sturgeon has to do it or her @malcolmg types will go mad. She’s just said any vote has to be “lawful” so she has maybe given herself an opt-out when Westminster refuses, which it will

    OTOH she might corner herself into a position where she has to call a wildcat non-binding referendum, which will be boycotted by unionists. That would be a disaster for the cause

    Tricky for her
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,373
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Applicant said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
    The only way for that to happen is for the separatists to win. Any defeat, they'll just start agitating for a new vote the next day.
    However.
    The lesson of Quebec was that a second defeat, even by a tiny margin, killed it stone dead.
    It hasn't returned. So that isn't inevitable at all. Even if they are different cases.
    Not quite true. Quebec separatism is stirring again - after a long period of quiescence

    Of all the western sub-nations clamouring for indy, Quebec is the one that would likely make the best fist of it

    All the EU regions (Catalunya, Basque Country, Corsica) are bedevilled by the EU issue. Scotland is bedevilled by the EU, currency, bank

    Quebec has some economic issues but it speaks a different lingo and has vast resources
    Stirring maybe, but the last poll had independence on 33%. And the new guy has had to “rule out” another referendum.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,907
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Applicant said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
    The only way for that to happen is for the separatists to win. Any defeat, they'll just start agitating for a new vote the next day.
    However.
    The lesson of Quebec was that a second defeat, even by a tiny margin, killed it stone dead.
    It hasn't returned. So that isn't inevitable at all. Even if they are different cases.
    Not quite true. Quebec separatism is stirring again - after a long period of quiescence

    Of all the western sub-nations clamouring for indy, Quebec is the one that would likely make the best fist of it

    All the EU regions (Catalunya, Basque Country, Corsica) are bedevilled by the EU issue. Scotland is bedevilled by the EU, currency, bank

    Quebec has some economic issues but it speaks a different lingo and has vast resources
    We're now in 2022 though. So if Scotland followed the same timeline with a lost ref you'd get "stirrings" in err 2050.
    If you don't give one then you'll get tumultuous tumescence about the matter every year till 2050.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,517
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Applicant said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
    The only way for that to happen is for the separatists to win. Any defeat, they'll just start agitating for a new vote the next day.
    However.
    The lesson of Quebec was that a second defeat, even by a tiny margin, killed it stone dead.
    It hasn't returned. So that isn't inevitable at all. Even if they are different cases.
    Not quite true. Quebec separatism is stirring again - after a long period of quiescence

    Of all the western sub-nations clamouring for indy, Quebec is the one that would likely make the best fist of it

    All the EU regions (Catalunya, Basque Country, Corsica) are bedevilled by the EU issue. Scotland is bedevilled by the EU, currency, bank

    Quebec has some economic issues but it speaks a different lingo and has vast resources
    Not really. It's struggling to hit a third in polls. Has had 40% support in one since 2010.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 47,261

    I wonder whether @Tissue_Price is one of them?

    I could see him becoming an independent (even if unlikely), but couldn't see him becoming a Labour MP.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,934
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Nothing had fundamentally changed in Canada between the first and second referendums. You can't say the same about the UK.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292
    Some quite staggering videos showing what Ukrainians have to live with:

    https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1541749627283701760
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,442
    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree , don't say they haven't warned you...

    Tory MP Danny Kruger says he doesn’t agree that “women have an absolute right to bodily autonomy".
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1541778555088011264

    Misrepresentation. What he really says is they do over their _own_ bodies but a foetus is someone else's body.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    If you look at his comments further on, he says it's qualified by the rights of another body ie the foetus

    Which is the hub of the abortion argument in a nutshell. One life or two.

    Saying women having complete autonomy leads logically to the conclusion that a foetus can be terminated up to the point of birth.
    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree , don't say they haven't warned you...

    Tory MP Danny Kruger says he doesn’t agree that “women have an absolute right to bodily autonomy".
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1541778555088011264

  • LeonLeon Posts: 26,353
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Applicant said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
    The only way for that to happen is for the separatists to win. Any defeat, they'll just start agitating for a new vote the next day.
    However.
    The lesson of Quebec was that a second defeat, even by a tiny margin, killed it stone dead.
    It hasn't returned. So that isn't inevitable at all. Even if they are different cases.
    Not quite true. Quebec separatism is stirring again - after a long period of quiescence

    Of all the western sub-nations clamouring for indy, Quebec is the one that would likely make the best fist of it

    All the EU regions (Catalunya, Basque Country, Corsica) are bedevilled by the EU issue. Scotland is bedevilled by the EU, currency, bank

    Quebec has some economic issues but it speaks a different lingo and has vast resources
    We're now in 2022 though. So if Scotland followed the same timeline with a lost ref you'd get "stirrings" in err 2050.
    If you don't give one then you'll get tumultuous tumescence about the matter every year till 2050.
    HMG already “gave” one in 2014. As was only right

    But the power to grant a referendum is rightly reserved to Westminster, because such a huge constitutional change must be overseen by ALL British MPs, in the parliament of Great Britain and NI: Westminster

    There’s no point in having such a power if it is not used. Sturgeon needs to persuade a majority of British MPs (including Scots MPs) that now is the time for another vote, even if a mere 9 years have passed since the last
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,973
    All referendums are non binding. The Brexit referendum was non binding.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,312
    rcs1000 said:

    I wonder whether @Tissue_Price is one of them?

    I could see him becoming an independent (even if unlikely), but couldn't see him becoming a Labour MP.
    Seems credible. But remember someone who claimed to know one of the previous defectors well said that he would never defect to Labour, just before he did.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,936

    Some quite staggering videos showing what Ukrainians have to live with:

    https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1541749627283701760

    I can't open, so I'm guessing. Another Boris Johnson walkabout?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,934
    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree , don't say they haven't warned you...

    Tory MP Danny Kruger says he doesn’t agree that “women have an absolute right to bodily autonomy".
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1541778555088011264

    Misrepresentation. What he really says is they do over their _own_ bodies but a foetus is someone else's body.
    Personally - and of course this is all about personal views - I think he is wrong on that. I don't think it is someone else's body until it has the ability to survive independently of the mother - either completely or with the current levels of medical assistance. That for me seems a good point at which to make the distinction and hence set the barrier to elective abortion.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,479
    Alistair said:

    All referendums are non binding. The Brexit referendum was non binding.

    The AV referendum was binding.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Nothing had fundamentally changed in Canada between the first and second referendums. You can't say the same about the UK.
    If it was raining one day the SNP
    would say it was a change of circumstances. Just same old Nationalist whinging and Westminster will correctly continue to ignore her
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905

    HYUFD said:

    Applicant said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
    The only way for that to happen is for the separatists to win. Any defeat, they'll just start agitating for a new vote the next day.
    Hence refuse one for a generation.

    Allow one now and a separatist win means Scexit and Scexit negotiations dominate this decade as Brexit dominated most of the last 10 years
    Remember HY, lose Scotland, and England, Wales and Northern Ireland get Johnson sine die. What's not to like?
    Not on current polls they don't
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,934
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Nothing had fundamentally changed in Canada between the first and second referendums. You can't say the same about the UK.
    If it was raining one day the SNP
    would say it was a change of circumstances. Just same old Nationalist whinging and Westminster will correctly continue to ignore her
    That view is delusional. Brexit changed things fundamentally. Even as someone who fully supports it I recognise that. Your inability to do so reflects your personal antipathy towards Scottish Independence rather than any reality.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,209
    Surely the time to call a referendum on anything is when you are confident that it will be won?

    (Incidentally, if the union ever really got that unpopular, Westminster would be a massive arse to deny an indyref, even if it was clearly going to be lost.)

    And, as of now, the figures can't give confidence to the SNP government that they could win a referendum.

    So if this referndum talk is just the patter, what is the magician doing with her hands? Is it as simple as picking a fight with BoJo?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 1,947
    I’ve just had exclusive sight of the Indyref2 question, which I can share with you.
    “Do you want to live in a separate country to @Leon and @HYUFD? Yes/No.”
    Should be a guaranteed Yes.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,523

    Alistair said:

    All referendums are non binding. The Brexit referendum was non binding.

    The AV referendum was binding.
    Does that mean we have FPTP forever more?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,182
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Applicant said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
    The only way for that to happen is for the separatists to win. Any defeat, they'll just start agitating for a new vote the next day.
    Hence refuse one for a generation.

    Allow one now and a separatist win means Scexit and Scexit negotiations dominate this decade as Brexit dominated most of the last 10 years
    Remember HY, lose Scotland, and England, Wales and Northern Ireland get Johnson sine die. What's not to like?
    Not on current polls they don't
    Butd you denied on the past thread that the Tories would win with any other leader. SKS or Mr J, you said.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,002
    edited June 28
    rcs1000 said:

    I wonder whether @Tissue_Price is one of them?

    I could see him becoming an independent (even if unlikely), but couldn't see him becoming a Labour MP.
    In current politics the only chance he has of remaining an MP is to be the Tory or Labour party candidate at the next election.

    Given that @Tissue_Price's problems are clearly with the leadership rather than the party (and the leadership will at some point change) I can't see him leaving.

    Having said that I now know what will happen at 12:01 next Wednesday afternoon (won't be tomorrow as Bozo won't be doing PMQs due to the NATO summit).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,431
    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Applicant said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
    The only way for that to happen is for the separatists to win. Any defeat, they'll just start agitating for a new vote the next day.
    However.
    The lesson of Quebec was that a second defeat, even by a tiny margin, killed it stone dead.
    It hasn't returned. So that isn't inevitable at all. Even if they are different cases.
    Not quite true. Quebec separatism is stirring again - after a long period of quiescence

    Of all the western sub-nations clamouring for indy, Quebec is the one that would likely make the best fist of it

    All the EU regions (Catalunya, Basque Country, Corsica) are bedevilled by the EU issue. Scotland is bedevilled by the EU, currency, bank

    Quebec has some economic issues but it speaks a different lingo and has vast resources
    We're now in 2022 though. So if Scotland followed the same timeline with a lost ref you'd get "stirrings" in err 2050.
    If you don't give one then you'll get tumultuous tumescence about the matter every year till 2050.
    HMG already “gave” one in 2014. As was only right

    But the power to grant a referendum is rightly reserved to Westminster, because such a huge constitutional change must be overseen by ALL British MPs, in the parliament of Great Britain and NI: Westminster

    There’s no point in having such a power if it is not used. Sturgeon needs to persuade a majority of British MPs (including Scots MPs) that now is the time for another vote, even if a mere 9 years have passed since the last
    Yes its only 9 years, but something materially changed in 2016... I think you can make a reasonable case that Brexit, against the vote as per Scotland, constitutes a suitable reason to ask again.
    BUT it must be done better than the brexit vote. It must be clear what is being voted for in terms of:
    Currency
    National debt
    Rights of citizens in rUK and Scotland
    Pensions
    The army/navy/air-force
    Trade agreements
    and so on.

    A simple yes/no will not cut it, now we have seen the chaos of brexit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,479
    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    All referendums are non binding. The Brexit referendum was non binding.

    The AV referendum was binding.
    Does that mean we have FPTP forever more?
    Priti Patel certainly thinks so.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,907
    I note ol' Clarence Thomas wants to lower the bar for suing news outlets in the USA. You'd have thought a man so wedded to the US constitution would have more regard for the 1st amendment but hey ho.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,002

    Surely the time to call a referendum on anything is when you are confident that it will be won?

    (Incidentally, if the union ever really got that unpopular, Westminster would be a massive arse to deny an indyref, even if it was clearly going to be lost.)

    And, as of now, the figures can't give confidence to the SNP government that they could win a referendum.

    So if this referndum talk is just the patter, what is the magician doing with her hands? Is it as simple as picking a fight with BoJo?

    I suspect there are a whole set of disasters regarding NHS Scotland, Police Scotland, Education and more general budget issues that need the "All would be fixed if we were Independent" whitewash to see Sturgeon through the next 15 months.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 1,947
    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    All referendums are non binding. The Brexit referendum was non binding.

    The AV referendum was binding.
    Does that mean we have FPTP forever more?
    Only for a generation.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,182

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Applicant said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
    The only way for that to happen is for the separatists to win. Any defeat, they'll just start agitating for a new vote the next day.
    However.
    The lesson of Quebec was that a second defeat, even by a tiny margin, killed it stone dead.
    It hasn't returned. So that isn't inevitable at all. Even if they are different cases.
    Not quite true. Quebec separatism is stirring again - after a long period of quiescence

    Of all the western sub-nations clamouring for indy, Quebec is the one that would likely make the best fist of it

    All the EU regions (Catalunya, Basque Country, Corsica) are bedevilled by the EU issue. Scotland is bedevilled by the EU, currency, bank

    Quebec has some economic issues but it speaks a different lingo and has vast resources
    We're now in 2022 though. So if Scotland followed the same timeline with a lost ref you'd get "stirrings" in err 2050.
    If you don't give one then you'll get tumultuous tumescence about the matter every year till 2050.
    HMG already “gave” one in 2014. As was only right

    But the power to grant a referendum is rightly reserved to Westminster, because such a huge constitutional change must be overseen by ALL British MPs, in the parliament of Great Britain and NI: Westminster

    There’s no point in having such a power if it is not used. Sturgeon needs to persuade a majority of British MPs (including Scots MPs) that now is the time for another vote, even if a mere 9 years have passed since the last
    Yes its only 9 years, but something materially changed in 2016... I think you can make a reasonable case that Brexit, against the vote as per Scotland, constitutes a suitable reason to ask again.
    BUT it must be done better than the brexit vote. It must be clear what is being voted for in terms of:
    Currency
    National debt
    Rights of citizens in rUK and Scotland
    Pensions
    The army/navy/air-force
    Trade agreements
    and so on.

    A simple yes/no will not cut it, now we have seen the chaos of brexit.
    Doesn't work. We'd never have a referendum with that lot in London. They haven't even completed Brexit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,437

    I’ve just had exclusive sight of the Indyref2 question, which I can share with you.
    “Do you want to live in a separate country to @Leon and @HYUFD? Yes/No.”
    Should be a guaranteed Yes.

    "Do you want to trust Nicola Sturgeon and her husband with your future pension payments? Yes/No"

    You're stuck in the Union forever.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Nothing had fundamentally changed in Canada between the first and second referendums. You can't say the same about the UK.
    If it was raining one day the SNP
    would say it was a change of circumstances. Just same old Nationalist whinging and Westminster will correctly continue to ignore her
    That view is delusional. Brexit changed things fundamentally. Even as someone who fully supports it I recognise that. Your inability to do so reflects your personal antipathy towards Scottish Independence rather than any reality.
    No it didn't, 62% voted Remain in Scotland yet the latest Mori poll on independence has Yes on 45%, exactly the same as 2014.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-independence-what-every-indyref2-27310192

    So Brexit has changed sod all!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 26,353

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Nothing had fundamentally changed in Canada between the first and second referendums. You can't say the same about the UK.
    If it was raining one day the SNP
    would say it was a change of circumstances. Just same old Nationalist whinging and Westminster will correctly continue to ignore her
    That view is delusional. Brexit changed things fundamentally. Even as someone who fully supports it I recognise that. Your inability to do so reflects your personal antipathy towards Scottish Independence rather than any reality.
    Yet the vote for YES in 2014 was a vote for instant Scexit. Didn’t seem to bother the Nats then

    @HYUFD is right. There will always be a “fundamental reason” why there should be a Scottish indyref, for the Nats, it is what they live for. All they care about. Brexit is a handy excuse even tho they were happy to Scexit in 2014

    All of the UK voted to leave the EU because we voted as one sovereign country. That same country will decide if and when a part of it gets to vote on secession
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,182
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Nothing had fundamentally changed in Canada between the first and second referendums. You can't say the same about the UK.
    If it was raining one day the SNP
    would say it was a change of circumstances. Just same old Nationalist whinging and Westminster will correctly continue to ignore her
    That view is delusional. Brexit changed things fundamentally. Even as someone who fully supports it I recognise that. Your inability to do so reflects your personal antipathy towards Scottish Independence rather than any reality.
    No it didn't, 62% voted Remain in Scotland yet the latest Mori poll on independence has Yes on 45%, exactly the same as 2014.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-independence-what-every-indyref2-27310192

    So Brexit has changed sod all!
    You're deliberately concealing the difference between polling and an actual election/referendum. Which was quite substantial. The current pro-yes polling is markedly higher than the equivalent in 2012-3.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,247
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
    You mean, like it was finalised once and for all in 2014?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    Rumours about defections are always just rumours.

    People actually defecting, from recent experience, do it in the utmost of secrecy, lest their whips try and talk them back round. The first we hear of it is a few minutes before the announcement.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,182
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Nothing had fundamentally changed in Canada between the first and second referendums. You can't say the same about the UK.
    If it was raining one day the SNP
    would say it was a change of circumstances. Just same old Nationalist whinging and Westminster will correctly continue to ignore her
    That view is delusional. Brexit changed things fundamentally. Even as someone who fully supports it I recognise that. Your inability to do so reflects your personal antipathy towards Scottish Independence rather than any reality.
    Yet the vote for YES in 2014 was a vote for instant Scexit. Didn’t seem to bother the Nats then

    @HYUFD is right. There will always be a “fundamental reason” why there should be a Scottish indyref, for the Nats, it is what they live for. All they care about. Brexit is a handy excuse even tho they were happy to Scexit in 2014

    All of the UK voted to leave the EU because we voted as one sovereign country. That same country will decide if and when a part of it gets to vote on secession
    "instant scexit"

    No, it wasn't - the time to leave the UK would be used to open entry into thje EU.

    In any case, ytour lot won both - and must take the consequences. "Waah, this is crap, it's all the fault of the remainers!"
  • eekeek Posts: 21,002
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Nothing had fundamentally changed in Canada between the first and second referendums. You can't say the same about the UK.
    If it was raining one day the SNP
    would say it was a change of circumstances. Just same old Nationalist whinging and Westminster will correctly continue to ignore her
    That view is delusional. Brexit changed things fundamentally. Even as someone who fully supports it I recognise that. Your inability to do so reflects your personal antipathy towards Scottish Independence rather than any reality.
    No it didn't, 62% voted Remain in Scotland yet the latest Mori poll on independence has Yes on 45%, exactly the same as 2014.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-independence-what-every-indyref2-27310192

    So Brexit has changed sod all!
    Scotland voted to remain in the EU but it's wishes were ignored by the overall nationwide vote.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,973

    Alistair said:

    All referendums are non binding. The Brexit referendum was non binding.

    The AV referendum was binding.
    We don't talk about that one.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,479
    Asking for a friend.

    What happens if a non SNP run council refuses to take part in a Section 30 less plebiscite?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,431
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Applicant said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
    The only way for that to happen is for the separatists to win. Any defeat, they'll just start agitating for a new vote the next day.
    However.
    The lesson of Quebec was that a second defeat, even by a tiny margin, killed it stone dead.
    It hasn't returned. So that isn't inevitable at all. Even if they are different cases.
    Not quite true. Quebec separatism is stirring again - after a long period of quiescence

    Of all the western sub-nations clamouring for indy, Quebec is the one that would likely make the best fist of it

    All the EU regions (Catalunya, Basque Country, Corsica) are bedevilled by the EU issue. Scotland is bedevilled by the EU, currency, bank

    Quebec has some economic issues but it speaks a different lingo and has vast resources
    We're now in 2022 though. So if Scotland followed the same timeline with a lost ref you'd get "stirrings" in err 2050.
    If you don't give one then you'll get tumultuous tumescence about the matter every year till 2050.
    HMG already “gave” one in 2014. As was only right

    But the power to grant a referendum is rightly reserved to Westminster, because such a huge constitutional change must be overseen by ALL British MPs, in the parliament of Great Britain and NI: Westminster

    There’s no point in having such a power if it is not used. Sturgeon needs to persuade a majority of British MPs (including Scots MPs) that now is the time for another vote, even if a mere 9 years have passed since the last
    Yes its only 9 years, but something materially changed in 2016... I think you can make a reasonable case that Brexit, against the vote as per Scotland, constitutes a suitable reason to ask again.
    BUT it must be done better than the brexit vote. It must be clear what is being voted for in terms of:
    Currency
    National debt
    Rights of citizens in rUK and Scotland
    Pensions
    The army/navy/air-force
    Trade agreements
    and so on.

    A simple yes/no will not cut it, now we have seen the chaos of brexit.
    Doesn't work. We'd never have a referendum with that lot in London. They haven't even completed Brexit.
    You are correct that the current government will not allow such a referendum, but I disagree about brexit. it happened - we are now sorting out the post-brexit world, which has a long way to go.

    And the current government will be done by Jan 2025 at worst.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,182

    Asking for a friend.

    What happens if a non SNP run council refuses to take part in a Section 30 less plebiscite?

    Some interesting issues there. Not least that if a Tory council refuses to take part it will mean that the Unionist majority there is not counted at all.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,247
    Leon said:


    [snip]

    @HYUFD is right. There will always be a “fundamental reason” why there should be a Scottish indyref, for the Nats, it is what they live for. All they care about. Brexit is a handy excuse even tho they were happy to Scexit in 2014
    [snip]

    If the EU referendum had gone the other way, Nicola would have had a much stronger argument: "Now we know that the rest of the UK is going to remain in the EU, the issue of a potential hard border at Gretna Green goes away."
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,936

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree , don't say they haven't warned you...

    Tory MP Danny Kruger says he doesn’t agree that “women have an absolute right to bodily autonomy".
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1541778555088011264

    Misrepresentation. What he really says is they do over their _own_ bodies but a foetus is someone else's body.
    Personally - and of course this is all about personal views - I think he is wrong on that. I don't think it is someone else's body until it has the ability to survive independently of the mother - either completely or with the current levels of medical assistance. That for me seems a good point at which to make the distinction and hence set the barrier to elective abortion.
    I was listening to the American woman on holiday in Malta whose unborn child was rendered unsustainable due to a detached placenta and broken waters but retained a heartbeat. Due to the heartbeat any medical intervention was illegal in Malta and she had to be Medivacced to Majorca, she was scathing that her ordeal could now be repeated in her own country.

    I am not religious, but I do have some unresolved moral concerns over on-demand terminations, however it seems plain mad that in a civilised society a woman could be allowed, by doctors, to bleed to death, killing her and her unborn child for fear of prosecution. She said doctors in Malta had confirmed they could only intervene, due to the baby's heartbeat, at the point when her life was in grave peril.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,209
    eek said:

    Surely the time to call a referendum on anything is when you are confident that it will be won?

    (Incidentally, if the union ever really got that unpopular, Westminster would be a massive arse to deny an indyref, even if it was clearly going to be lost.)

    And, as of now, the figures can't give confidence to the SNP government that they could win a referendum.

    So if this referndum talk is just the patter, what is the magician doing with her hands? Is it as simple as picking a fight with BoJo?

    I suspect there are a whole set of disasters regarding NHS Scotland, Police Scotland, Education and more general budget issues that need the "All would be fixed if we were Independent" whitewash to see Sturgeon through the next 15 months.
    To be fair, a similar campaign strategy worked very well for someone nationwide in 2016 and again in 2019.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,907
    edited June 28
    Who gets the Clair oilfield ?
    Would Shetland chance a go at independence if Scotland broke away ?
    Clair's in their waters if they're independent I think. They're more than viable with that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    edited June 28
    Carnyx said:

    Asking for a friend.

    What happens if a non SNP run council refuses to take part in a Section 30 less plebiscite?

    Some interesting issues there. Not least that if a Tory council refuses to take part it will mean that the Unionist majority there is not counted at all.

    Hopefully no Unionist voters will take part at all. I expect Boris to tell all Unionist voters to boycott this SNP propaganda exercise the result of which he would completely ignore
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,479

    Asking for a friend.

    What happens if a non SNP run council refuses to take part in a Section 30 less plebiscite?

    A former SNP MSP replies

    The bill is going to be tested in court. If it can be legislated without a section 30 it will be introduced. If not, the SNP will fight the next general election on an independence platform. There is no prospect of an unlawful referendum, so all councils would take part.

    https://twitter.com/marcogbiagi/status/1541792019147898881?s=21&t=q61jkSzSj9GBadEsSFrkLQ
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,182
    Pulpstar said:

    Who gets the Clair oilfield ?

    Clear protocols for determining territorial waters. If anything, some waters currently regarded as English would have to be returned to Scotland (after the grab which Tony Blair made on the eve of the reconvening of the Scottish Pmt).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 26,353
    edited June 28
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Nothing had fundamentally changed in Canada between the first and second referendums. You can't say the same about the UK.
    If it was raining one day the SNP
    would say it was a change of circumstances. Just same old Nationalist whinging and Westminster will correctly continue to ignore her
    That view is delusional. Brexit changed things fundamentally. Even as someone who fully supports it I recognise that. Your inability to do so reflects your personal antipathy towards Scottish Independence rather than any reality.
    Yet the vote for YES in 2014 was a vote for instant Scexit. Didn’t seem to bother the Nats then

    @HYUFD is right. There will always be a “fundamental reason” why there should be a Scottish indyref, for the Nats, it is what they live for. All they care about. Brexit is a handy excuse even tho they were happy to Scexit in 2014

    All of the UK voted to leave the EU because we voted as one sovereign country. That same country will decide if and when a part of it gets to vote on secession
    "instant scexit"

    No, it wasn't - the time to leave the UK would be used to open entry into thje EU.

    In any case, ytour lot won both - and must take the consequences. "Waah, this is crap, it's all the fault of the remainers!"
    Comical nonsense. There is no way the EU could begin negotiations with a newly indy Scotland until you have entirely left the UK and settled all issues arising from Indy, such as the division of debts, assets, currency, pensions, central bank, military bases, fishing rights, and so forth and so on; that would be the case now and would have been the case, even more so, in 2014. The EU would rightly want to know: are you going to join the euro, if not, how can you hope to use the currency of a non-EU member, this is unprecedented, will you be in Schengen and Single Market (= hard border at Berwick) and all the rest of it

    Independence = ten years of chaos, outside the EU. Of course you might think this is worth it - cf Brexit - but there’s no point in hiding the truth
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,182

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Applicant said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Don't offer them the chance of a 3rd referendum.

    Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
    The only way for that to happen is for the separatists to win. Any defeat, they'll just start agitating for a new vote the next day.
    However.
    The lesson of Quebec was that a second defeat, even by a tiny margin, killed it stone dead.
    It hasn't returned. So that isn't inevitable at all. Even if they are different cases.
    Not quite true. Quebec separatism is stirring again - after a long period of quiescence

    Of all the western sub-nations clamouring for indy, Quebec is the one that would likely make the best fist of it

    All the EU regions (Catalunya, Basque Country, Corsica) are bedevilled by the EU issue. Scotland is bedevilled by the EU, currency, bank

    Quebec has some economic issues but it speaks a different lingo and has vast resources
    We're now in 2022 though. So if Scotland followed the same timeline with a lost ref you'd get "stirrings" in err 2050.
    If you don't give one then you'll get tumultuous tumescence about the matter every year till 2050.
    HMG already “gave” one in 2014. As was only right

    But the power to grant a referendum is rightly reserved to Westminster, because such a huge constitutional change must be overseen by ALL British MPs, in the parliament of Great Britain and NI: Westminster

    There’s no point in having such a power if it is not used. Sturgeon needs to persuade a majority of British MPs (including Scots MPs) that now is the time for another vote, even if a mere 9 years have passed since the last
    Yes its only 9 years, but something materially changed in 2016... I think you can make a reasonable case that Brexit, against the vote as per Scotland, constitutes a suitable reason to ask again.
    BUT it must be done better than the brexit vote. It must be clear what is being voted for in terms of:
    Currency
    National debt
    Rights of citizens in rUK and Scotland
    Pensions
    The army/navy/air-force
    Trade agreements
    and so on.

    A simple yes/no will not cut it, now we have seen the chaos of brexit.
    Doesn't work. We'd never have a referendum with that lot in London. They haven't even completed Brexit.
    You are correct that the current government will not allow such a referendum, but I disagree about brexit. it happened - we are now sorting out the post-brexit world, which has a long way to go.

    And the current government will be done by Jan 2025 at worst.
    I was thinking more of the Brexiter Tories' appalling record of negotiation since 2017.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,995
    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree , don't say they haven't warned you...

    Tory MP Danny Kruger says he doesn’t agree that “women have an absolute right to bodily autonomy".
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1541778555088011264

    Misrepresentation. What he really says is they do over their _own_ bodies but a foetus is someone else's body.
    Whose ?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,936
    edited June 28

    Asking for a friend.

    What happens if a non SNP run council refuses to take part in a Section 30 less plebiscite?

    With all these Unionist caveats, Nicola is going to demand independence with a close to 100% mandate.

    It'll be like a Belarusan General Election.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,109
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Asking for a friend.

    What happens if a non SNP run council refuses to take part in a Section 30 less plebiscite?

    Some interesting issues there. Not least that if a Tory council refuses to take part it will mean that the Unionist majority there is not counted at all.

    Hopefully no Unionist voters will take part at all. I expect Boris to tell all Unionist voters to boycott this SNP propaganda exercise the result of which he would completely ignore
    Why is it any of your business whether the people of Scotland decide to become Independent or otherwise?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,182
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Nicola Sturgeon proposes a second independence referendum should be held in Scotland on 19th October 2023.

    Let them have it.

    And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
    That was 15 years after the 1980 Quebec referendum not just 9 years
    Nothing had fundamentally changed in Canada between the first and second referendums. You can't say the same about the UK.
    If it was raining one day the SNP
    would say it was a change of circumstances. Just same old Nationalist whinging and Westminster will correctly continue to ignore her
    That view is delusional. Brexit changed things fundamentally. Even as someone who fully supports it I recognise that. Your inability to do so reflects your personal antipathy towards Scottish Independence rather than any reality.
    Yet the vote for YES in 2014 was a vote for instant Scexit. Didn’t seem to bother the Nats then

    @HYUFD is right. There will always be a “fundamental reason” why there should be a Scottish indyref, for the Nats, it is what they live for. All they care about. Brexit is a handy excuse even tho they were happy to Scexit in 2014

    All of the UK voted to leave the EU because we voted as one sovereign country. That same country will decide if and when a part of it gets to vote on secession
    "instant scexit"

    No, it wasn't - the time to leave the UK would be used to open entry into thje EU.

    In any case, ytour lot won both - and must take the consequences. "Waah, this is crap, it's all the fault of the remainers!"
    Comical nonsense. There is no way the EU could begin negotiations with a newly indy Scotland until you have entirely left the UK and settled all issues arising from Indy, such as the division of debts, assets, currency, pensions, central bank, military bases, fishing rights, and so forth and so on; that would be the case now and would have been the case, even more so, in 2014. The EU would rightly want to know: are you going to join the euro, if not, how can you hope to use the currency of a non-EU member, this is unprecedented, will you be in Schengen and Single Market (= hard border at Berwick) and all the rest of it

    Independence = ten years of chaos, outside the EU. Of course you might think this is worth it - cf Brexit - but there’s no pointing hiding the truth
    Weren't you telling us that all of that would have to be settled vis a vis rUK BEFORE a vote was even permitted? Certainly some of us are today. The two views are not compatible.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,437
    edited June 28
    Would the SNP like to tell the people of Scotland how much the annual fee for joining the EU will be?

    And then, how they propose to pay for it?

    (And if the answer is "by borrowing", how we will laugh...like there's going to be any more headroom for more borrowing.)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,109

    Alistair said:

    All referendums are non binding. The Brexit referendum was non binding.

    The AV referendum was binding.
    No2AV 68%
    Yes2AV 32%

    :innocent:
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,829
    Alistair said:

    All referendums are non binding. The Brexit referendum was non binding.

    Different 'cos...REASONS!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054

    Leon said:


    [snip]

    @HYUFD is right. There will always be a “fundamental reason” why there should be a Scottish indyref, for the Nats, it is what they live for. All they care about. Brexit is a handy excuse even tho they were happy to Scexit in 2014
    [snip]

    If the EU referendum had gone the other way, Nicola would have had a much stronger argument: "Now we know that the rest of the UK is going to remain in the EU, the issue of a potential hard border at Gretna Green goes away."
    The biggest change since 2014, is that the border between Scotland and England is very much an issue, should Scotland wish to join the EU.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,907
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree , don't say they haven't warned you...

    Tory MP Danny Kruger says he doesn’t agree that “women have an absolute right to bodily autonomy".
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1541778555088011264

    Misrepresentation. What he really says is they do over their _own_ bodies but a foetus is someone else's body.
    Whose ?
    The foetus' ?
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 445
    edited June 28
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Yet the vote for YES in 2014 was a vote for instant Scexit. Didn’t seem to bother the Nats then

    No, it wasn't - the time to leave the UK would be used to open entry into thje EU.
    "Scotland’s referendum on 18 September 2014 is a choice between two futures... We propose that Scotland's independence day should be on 24 March 2016."

    Completely leaving aside the questions of whether Scotland had the capacity to negotiate independence and accession at the same time, let alone whether the EU would have negotiated with a state it hasn't yet recognised, I look forward to any referendum bill writing the eighteen month timeframe for Scottish independence into law in the same way as Article 50.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,442
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree , don't say they haven't warned you...

    Tory MP Danny Kruger says he doesn’t agree that “women have an absolute right to bodily autonomy".
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1541778555088011264

    Misrepresentation. What he really says is they do over their _own_ bodies but a foetus is someone else's body.
    Whose ?
    The foetus's.
This discussion has been closed.