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Betting YES on a CON MP defecting to LAB might be value – politicalbetting.com
Betting YES on a CON MP defecting to LAB might be value – politicalbetting.com
With the Telegraph reporting that three CON MPs are in active discussion about crossing the floor to join LAB the above bet from Smarkets looks might be value. According to the paper:
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ps - SECOND - like 1/60th of a minute
So if a Tory wished to defect to Labour and retain their seat they haven't got long to do so.
And when they lose again hopefully this can be put to bed just like it was in Quebec after 1995.
Some large towns and cities have seen their populations fall, including Sunderland, Gateshead, Swansea and the London boroughs of Kensington and Chelsea, Camden and Westminster. The place with the biggest increases was the east London borough of Tower Hamlets, where the population grew by 22.1%.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61966084
I fail to believe in reality those London boroughs are really down, got to be COVID related relocations.
The point is to demonstrate to independence ultras that she is committed to the cause, and more so to provoke the UKG to some repressive manoeuvre that inflames indy support.
There’s decent polling evidence that a narrow but definite majority consider all of this constitutional obsession as a distraction from the task of government, and the UKG should give some thought on how to magnify that impression.
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1541779658726948864
I'm old enough to remember when three Labour Red Wall MP's were feverishly reported to be joining the Tories to retain their seats.
Somewhat startled by this especially after the discussion on the previous thread.
"Downing Street is expected to ditch its manifesto commitment to increase the defence budget by at least 0.5% above inflation every year, putting Boris Johnson on a potential collision course with the defence secretary.
Ben Wallace, who is joining Johnson at the Nato summit in Madrid this week, has reportedly written to the prime minister to call for the defence budget to be increased to 2.5% of GDP by 2028. It is currently just over 2.1%."
Clue: it's not in the UK one either.
Scotland are now going to have 15 months of added uncertainty destroying any chance of firms investing there. So it really needs to be finalised once and for all.
K&C was one of 14 or so local authorities with declining populations in 2011. I think Barrow-in-Furness had the biggest fall in population on 2001.
Allow one now and a separatist win means Scexit and Scexit negotiations dominate this decade as Brexit dominated most of the last 10 years
The lesson of Quebec was that a second defeat, even by a tiny margin, killed it stone dead.
It hasn't returned. So that isn't inevitable at all. Even if they are different cases.
Continually denying them the opportunity to lose again will always drive their support though.
Of all the western sub-nations clamouring for indy, Quebec is the one that would likely make the best fist of it
All the EU regions (Catalunya, Basque Country, Corsica) are bedevilled by the EU issue. Scotland is bedevilled by the EU, currency, bank
Quebec has some economic issues but it speaks a different lingo and has vast resources
OTOH she might corner herself into a position where she has to call a wildcat non-binding referendum, which will be boycotted by unionists. That would be a disaster for the cause
Tricky for her
Tory MP Danny Kruger says he doesn’t agree that “women have an absolute right to bodily autonomy".
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1541778555088011264
If you don't give one then you'll get tumultuous tumescence about the matter every year till 2050.
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1541749627283701760
Which is the hub of the abortion argument in a nutshell. One life or two.
Saying women having complete autonomy leads logically to the conclusion that a foetus can be terminated up to the point of birth.
But the power to grant a referendum is rightly reserved to Westminster, because such a huge constitutional change must be overseen by ALL British MPs, in the parliament of Great Britain and NI: Westminster
There’s no point in having such a power if it is not used. Sturgeon needs to persuade a majority of British MPs (including Scots MPs) that now is the time for another vote, even if a mere 9 years have passed since the last
would say it was a change of circumstances. Just same old Nationalist whinging and Westminster will correctly continue to ignore her
(Incidentally, if the union ever really got that unpopular, Westminster would be a massive arse to deny an indyref, even if it was clearly going to be lost.)
And, as of now, the figures can't give confidence to the SNP government that they could win a referendum.
So if this referndum talk is just the patter, what is the magician doing with her hands? Is it as simple as picking a fight with BoJo?
“Do you want to live in a separate country to @Leon and @HYUFD? Yes/No.”
Should be a guaranteed Yes.
Given that @Tissue_Price's problems are clearly with the leadership rather than the party (and the leadership will at some point change) I can't see him leaving.
Having said that I now know what will happen at 12:01 next Wednesday afternoon (won't be tomorrow as Bozo won't be doing PMQs due to the NATO summit).
BUT it must be done better than the brexit vote. It must be clear what is being voted for in terms of:
Currency
National debt
Rights of citizens in rUK and Scotland
Pensions
The army/navy/air-force
Trade agreements
and so on.
A simple yes/no will not cut it, now we have seen the chaos of brexit.
You're stuck in the Union forever.....
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-independence-what-every-indyref2-27310192
So Brexit has changed sod all!
@HYUFD is right. There will always be a “fundamental reason” why there should be a Scottish indyref, for the Nats, it is what they live for. All they care about. Brexit is a handy excuse even tho they were happy to Scexit in 2014
All of the UK voted to leave the EU because we voted as one sovereign country. That same country will decide if and when a part of it gets to vote on secession
People actually defecting, from recent experience, do it in the utmost of secrecy, lest their whips try and talk them back round. The first we hear of it is a few minutes before the announcement.
No, it wasn't - the time to leave the UK would be used to open entry into thje EU.
In any case, ytour lot won both - and must take the consequences. "Waah, this is crap, it's all the fault of the remainers!"
What happens if a non SNP run council refuses to take part in a Section 30 less plebiscite?
And the current government will be done by Jan 2025 at worst.
I am not religious, but I do have some unresolved moral concerns over on-demand terminations, however it seems plain mad that in a civilised society a woman could be allowed, by doctors, to bleed to death, killing her and her unborn child for fear of prosecution. She said doctors in Malta had confirmed they could only intervene, due to the baby's heartbeat, at the point when her life was in grave peril.
Would Shetland chance a go at independence if Scotland broke away ?
Clair's in their waters if they're independent I think. They're more than viable with that.
The bill is going to be tested in court. If it can be legislated without a section 30 it will be introduced. If not, the SNP will fight the next general election on an independence platform. There is no prospect of an unlawful referendum, so all councils would take part.
https://twitter.com/marcogbiagi/status/1541792019147898881?s=21&t=q61jkSzSj9GBadEsSFrkLQ
Independence = ten years of chaos, outside the EU. Of course you might think this is worth it - cf Brexit - but there’s no point in hiding the truth
It'll be like a Belarusan General Election.
And then, how they propose to pay for it?
(And if the answer is "by borrowing", how we will laugh...like there's going to be any more headroom for more borrowing.)
Yes2AV 32%
Completely leaving aside the questions of whether Scotland had the capacity to negotiate independence and accession at the same time, let alone whether the EU would have negotiated with a state it hasn't yet recognised, I look forward to any referendum bill writing the eighteen month timeframe for Scottish independence into law in the same way as Article 50.