There were two or three people on here in the early hours trying to troll that Wakefield was a. bad result for Labour. Utter rubbish.
Wakefield's swing of 12.7% is the seventh largest from Con to Lab at a by-election since 1945.
And the fact that this took place in the Red Wall is what makes it all the more encouraging for Labour.
But what should REALLY send a shiver down tory spines is that both by-elections show massive tactical voting, as @MikeSmithson has pointed out.
The next General Election will be a disaster for the tories if they keep on this path. That 11% national opinion polling Labour lead yesterday masks tactical voting. The tories are in for a mauling.
See Michael Thresher's excellent piece on Sky News if you don't believe me:
It wasn't disappointing as long as you don't want Labour to win a majority at the next election.
They need a swing of 10.4% on the current boundaries, probably slightly more on the new boundaries. If the most they can get at a by-election is 12.7% it's very unlikely they would get 10.4% at a general election.
It's going to have to be a progressive alliance / rainbow coalition.
Do you still believe in uniform swing? What about the tactical voting?
Minister for Trade Penny Mordaunt says on by-election results:
“I’m disappointed for our candidates and our party, but I’m getting on with my job of serving my constituents and seeking new trade opportunities. They and the country want delivery.”
Minister for Trade Penny Mordaunt says on by-election results:
“I’m disappointed for our candidates and our party, but I’m getting on with my job of serving my constituents and seeking new trade opportunities. They and the country want delivery.”
Ministers who fancy their chances as next leader are inhibited by the "he who wields the knife" mythology re. Heseltine. The mechanics of forcing him out are interesting. Collective action by cabinet, in private then public if he refuses? Cabinet ministers who know they have no chance putting the knife in (paging Gove)? Change the rules? Enough men in grey coats? I think that although Johnson is obviously arrogant he is a coward in situations of political conflict. I think he might crack. He can't show his face in front of journalists or do any sort of public event and I don't think that is going to change. A little carrot like House of Lords and special emissary to Ukraine might tip the balance? (The Ukrainians deserve better but I think all senior politicians are fairly solid for them in UK. Can't blame 'em for liking Boris as face of UK.
The issue is that Bozo is an unflushable turd and no hint is going to result in him leaving quickly..
Equally no matter how well planned the attempt to remove it is, 30 seconds later it will return floating to the top.
There were two or three people on here in the early hours trying to troll that Wakefield was a. bad result for Labour. Utter rubbish.
Wakefield's swing of 12.7% is the seventh largest from Con to Lab at a by-election since 1945.
And the fact that this took place in the Red Wall is what makes it all the more encouraging for Labour.
But what should REALLY send a shiver down tory spines is that both by-elections show massive tactical voting, as @MikeSmithson has pointed out.
The next General Election will be a disaster for the tories if they keep on this path. That 11% national opinion polling Labour lead yesterday masks tactical voting. The tories are in for a mauling.
See Michael Thresher's excellent piece on Sky News if you don't believe me:
It wasn't disappointing as long as you don't want Labour to win a majority at the next election.
They need a swing of 10.4% on the current boundaries, probably slightly more on the new boundaries. If the most they can get at a by-election is 12.7% it's very unlikely they would get 10.4% at a general election.
It's going to have to be a progressive alliance / rainbow coalition.
Do you still believe in uniform swing? What about the tactical voting?
I believe that tactical voting is normally much less of an effect at GE rather than by-elections.
Onbviously last night's council elections are rather overshadowed by the, er, seismic results elsewhere, but for what it's worth here are the Good Week/Bad Week Index figures for the council results:
There were two or three people on here in the early hours trying to troll that Wakefield was a. bad result for Labour. Utter rubbish.
Wakefield's swing of 12.7% is the seventh largest from Con to Lab at a by-election since 1945.
And the fact that this took place in the Red Wall is what makes it all the more encouraging for Labour.
But what should REALLY send a shiver down tory spines is that both by-elections show massive tactical voting, as @MikeSmithson has pointed out.
The next General Election will be a disaster for the tories if they keep on this path. That 11% national opinion polling Labour lead yesterday masks tactical voting. The tories are in for a mauling.
See Michael Thresher's excellent piece on Sky News if you don't believe me:
It wasn't disappointing as long as you don't want Labour to win a majority at the next election.
They need a swing of 10.4% on the current boundaries, probably slightly more on the new boundaries. If the most they can get at a by-election is 12.7% it's very unlikely they would get 10.4% at a general election.
It's going to have to be a progressive alliance / rainbow coalition.
Do you still believe in uniform swing? What about the tactical voting?
I believe that tactical voting is normally much less of an effect at GE rather than by-elections.
"Normally" being the operative word here methinks.
PB occasionally digresses into utterly pointless discussions. One of the most pointless is "will Boris call an early GE?".
It is a not-happening event, as I believe young people say. No way. Apologies for contributing to the pointlessness.
Yes it's one of those on my classic list of things PB always predicts but which never happen. There really are some quite tiresome examples:
• A 2022 general election • The United States splitting • A nationwide house price crash • The Bakerloo line closing down • Hillary Clinton being the 2024 Democratic candidate
Nobody has predicted Clinton as the 2024 candidate, but now you would have it that the whole of PB does continually?
It frequently comes up I can assure you – have a search
The only mentions in 2022 - besides you, now - was one poster reproducing a tweet from the Wall Street Journal (without comment) and another including Clinton in their list of possibles only to put a no next to the name.
1/3 Last night was a reminder that we must be relentless in cracking on with the job of delivering. Under @BorisJohnson we are massively investing in digital infrastructure which is accelerating growth and employment in our rapidly expanding tech sectors.
OGH is right on this. The next election will see massive anit Tory tactical voting which will benefit Labour in the Red Wall and the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall. A pincer movement that will lock the Tories out of power, maybe for a generation. The Lib Dems should demand electoral reform as a condition of supporting a minority Labour government, and then people can vote for their first choice again, confident it won't result in their last choice getting elected.
OGH is wrong about Wakefield. There was no tactical vote surge there. Tories lost 17%, Labour gained 8%. Blue wall, yes, big problems. Red wall, much less so. Labour are still toxic
You only have to be less toxic than your opponent and Labour is far less toxic than the Conservative Party as this result shows.
In the interests of balance BBC R4 WATO is calling the Wakefield result for Labour "unconvincing" and the Tories "got a drubbing in Honiton and Tiverton".
If you listened to WATO didn't you think Lisa Nandy was good? I'd never particularly rated her but if SKS is looking for a Shadow Minister for the Red Wall he couldn't do better. Articulate and open and she seemed genuinely enthused
She was excellent Roger. She wasn't remotely phased by Dymond's quite frankly ridiculous narrative.
There were two or three people on here in the early hours trying to troll that Wakefield was a. bad result for Labour. Utter rubbish.
Wakefield's swing of 12.7% is the seventh largest from Con to Lab at a by-election since 1945.
And the fact that this took place in the Red Wall is what makes it all the more encouraging for Labour.
But what should REALLY send a shiver down tory spines is that both by-elections show massive tactical voting, as @MikeSmithson has pointed out.
The next General Election will be a disaster for the tories if they keep on this path. That 11% national opinion polling Labour lead yesterday masks tactical voting. The tories are in for a mauling.
See Michael Thresher's excellent piece on Sky News if you don't believe me:
It wasn't disappointing as long as you don't want Labour to win a majority at the next election.
They need a swing of 10.4% on the current boundaries, probably slightly more on the new boundaries. If the most they can get at a by-election is 12.7% it's very unlikely they would get 10.4% at a general election.
It's going to have to be a progressive alliance / rainbow coalition.
In Wakefield, there was very little room to squeeze third parties (LibDems, Greens, etc.) because the vast majority of the vote was already locked into Con/Lab. T&H shows what can be achieved when there is a lot more to be squeezed by the anti-Tory challenger. While I don't think Labour are as good at that messaging as the LibDems, I think they can do it, and the electorate have shown that they are receptive.
If Tories want to be complacent about last night, please carry on.
East African Indians. Part of the reason I take the view of the establishment I do is because I have an outsider's perspective on it.
You haven't answered my question on whether you take personal risks with your money I assume you don't therefore and are just risking the banks money in a heads I win tails you lose scenario correct
Why are you being so aggressive to Max?
It's not been aggressive to ask if he risks his own money He earns the big bucks so if he's that good he would be comfortable risking his own money if not ,,
And ti be fairhe was quite aggressive towards pensioners even if some of the ire is deserved
I think it's generally agreed by most people on this site that rich pensioners need to pay more and that there is a limit on the percentage of total income that you can expect working people to contribute.
Elsewhere (and partly it's local because being up north many people own their outright by the time they hit their early 50's) I'm seeing more and more people switching to part time work because they don't need that much cash to live on.
Yes. Which begs the question.What is it about the country that so many are prepared to take a hit on their incomes to cut down hours or quit? Why do so many hate what they do?
They don't hate it, they just know they have won the house price lottery so can back-peddle a bit.
I think it's more to do with a product of life stage and where you are with your mortgage. Housing costs and keeping children fed, clothed and entertained are both huge drains on people's incomes - if the mortgage is small or already paid, and you either don't have kids or they've left home, your outgoings are bound to be very much lower than someone who has to deal with those things.
A modest but comfortable lifestyle can then be had for a much smaller income - so if people don't want to work themselves into the ground until state pension age then they don't have to. That kind of choice is becoming more common where I work. Might even do it myself in another few years' time.
well quite - but then you look at the under 40s who can't buy a house unless they have wealthy parents/grandparents, crap dc pension if at all, wage restraint, constantly looking for the next employer and the prospect of looking at working well into their 70s......
To borrow a PB trope - not really. There has been (not sure where we are at present) around.
And there have been more or less continuous aiui schemes available to make saving a 5% deposit tax free, and providing a loan for another 20% (40% in London) at no interest for 5 years.
The underlying issue is demand / supply balance, and (ironically) demand side subsidy of house price inflation, which needs to be unwound.
1/3 Last night was a reminder that we must be relentless in cracking on with the job of delivering. Under @BorisJohnson we are massively investing in digital infrastructure which is accelerating growth and employment in our rapidly expanding tech sectors.
1/3 Last night was a reminder that we must be relentless in cracking on with the job of delivering. Under @BorisJohnson we are massively investing in digital infrastructure which is accelerating growth and employment in our rapidly expanding tech sectors.
At the first by-election I can remember, Mid Staffs in 1990, Labour got a 21% swing from the Tories. 12.7% doesn't seem that impressive by comparison.
...and then they lost the next GE. So what does that prove? Absolutely zip!
Lost the next GE after the Cons changed their leader tbf
Look at the 3 Labour gains between 1992-97 (they were the only Con defences v Lab in that parliament and the Tories lost all 3).
Dudley W - 29% SE Staffs - 22% Wirral S - 17%
That's the sort of swing they need to show to win. They are starting from further behind than in 1992, before anyone says "but, 1997 was a landslide, they don't need to win by as much as that". Nowhere near enough yet.
PB occasionally digresses into utterly pointless discussions. One of the most pointless is "will Boris call an early GE?".
It is a not-happening event, as I believe young people say. No way. Apologies for contributing to the pointlessness.
Yes it's one of those on my classic list of things PB always predicts but which never happen. There really are some quite tiresome examples:
• A 2022 general election • The United States splitting • A nationwide house price crash • The Bakerloo line closing down • Hillary Clinton being the 2024 Democratic candidate
Is complaining about it being tiresome not on the tireless list?
Blackford is fucking toast. What a fucking bufoon.
What's he done now?
His position and actions on Patrick Grady grow more and more untenable. It is impossible to attack the Conservatives for sleaze in this situation.
The Westminster MPs operate at a step removed from Holyrood so Sturgeon can't just directly boot him but it is clear he has lost her confidence. If he had any gumption he would walk now before he is very messily pushed.
At the first by-election I can remember, Mid Staffs in 1990, Labour got a 21% swing from the Tories. 12.7% doesn't seem that impressive by comparison.
...and then they lost the next GE. So what does that prove? Absolutely zip!
Lost the next GE after the Cons changed their leader tbf
Look at the 3 Labour gains between 1992-97 (they were the only Con defences v Lab in that parliament and the Tories lost all 3).
Dudley W - 29% SE Staffs - 22% Wirral S - 17%
That's the sort of swing they need to show to win. They are starting from further behind than in 1992, before anyone says "but, 1997 was a landslide, they don't need to win by as much as that". Nowhere near enough yet.
a coalition supply and confidence deal of chaos under starmer would suit me nicely
At the first by-election I can remember, Mid Staffs in 1990, Labour got a 21% swing from the Tories. 12.7% doesn't seem that impressive by comparison.
...and then they lost the next GE. So what does that prove? Absolutely zip!
Lost the next GE after the Cons changed their leader tbf
Look at the 3 Labour gains between 1992-97 (they were the only Con defences v Lab in that parliament and the Tories lost all 3).
Dudley W - 29% SE Staffs - 22% Wirral S - 17%
That's the sort of swing they need to show to win. They are starting from further behind than in 1992, before anyone says "but, 1997 was a landslide, they don't need to win by as much as that". Nowhere near enough yet.
a coalition supply and confidence deal of chaos under starmer would suit be nicely
Me too but I don't think Labour are quite polling strongly enough even for that.
Minister for Trade Penny Mordaunt says on by-election results:
“I’m disappointed for our candidates and our party, but I’m getting on with my job of serving my constituents and seeking new trade opportunities. They and the country want delivery.”
Ministers who fancy their chances as next leader are inhibited by the "he who wields the knife" mythology re. Heseltine. The mechanics of forcing him out are interesting. Collective action by cabinet, in private then public if he refuses? Cabinet ministers who know they have no chance putting the knife in (paging Gove)? Change the rules? Enough men in grey coats? I think that although Johnson is obviously arrogant he is a coward in situations of political conflict. I think he might crack. He can't show his face in front of journalists or do any sort of public event and I don't think that is going to change. A little carrot like House of Lords and special emissary to Ukraine might tip the balance? (The Ukrainians deserve better but I think all senior politicians are fairly solid for them in UK. Can't blame 'em for liking Boris as face of UK.
How to remove Boris Johnson from leadership of the Conservative Party:
The Conservative Party Constitution Schedule 3 Para 12
Upon a petition signed by not less than sixty-five Association Chairmen (or Constituency Officers in the case of Federations or multi-constituency Associations) to the Secretary of the National Convention, the Chairman of the National Convention shall call an Extraordinary General Meeting of the National Convention.
Onbviously last night's council elections are rather overshadowed by the, er, seismic results elsewhere, but for what it's worth here are the Good Week/Bad Week Index figures for the council results:
The attempt to topple former Labour cabinet minister Baroness Scotland as Commonwealth Secretary General has failed, narrowly. Another unfortunate result for Boris Johnson today who wanted her replaced. https://twitter.com/latikambourke/status/1540332589294166017
East African Indians. Part of the reason I take the view of the establishment I do is because I have an outsider's perspective on it.
You haven't answered my question on whether you take personal risks with your money I assume you don't therefore and are just risking the banks money in a heads I win tails you lose scenario correct
Why are you being so aggressive to Max?
It's not been aggressive to ask if he risks his own money He earns the big bucks so if he's that good he would be comfortable risking his own money if not ,,
And ti be fairhe was quite aggressive towards pensioners even if some of the ire is deserved
I think it's generally agreed by most people on this site that rich pensioners need to pay more and that there is a limit on the percentage of total income that you can expect working people to contribute.
Elsewhere (and partly it's local because being up north many people own their outright by the time they hit their early 50's) I'm seeing more and more people switching to part time work because they don't need that much cash to live on.
Yes. Which begs the question.What is it about the country that so many are prepared to take a hit on their incomes to cut down hours or quit? Why do so many hate what they do?
They don't hate it, they just know they have won the house price lottery so can back-peddle a bit.
I think it's more to do with a product of life stage and where you are with your mortgage. Housing costs and keeping children fed, clothed and entertained are both huge drains on people's incomes - if the mortgage is small or already paid, and you either don't have kids or they've left home, your outgoings are bound to be very much lower than someone who has to deal with those things.
A modest but comfortable lifestyle can then be had for a much smaller income - so if people don't want to work themselves into the ground until state pension age then they don't have to. That kind of choice is becoming more common where I work. Might even do it myself in another few years' time.
One life hack is to move to a cheap part of the country and get a small place in a reasonable area You can then work a relatively menial job provided you don't have kids Income by itself is a pathetic measure of wellbeing 50 grand a year in SE plus big mortgage and kids =misery 25 grand a year in North no mortgage or kids=happiness
Which of course explains a lot about the way both the economy and politics is working out right now. Economic activity sucks young (which nowadays means of working age) people toward the cities - and away from areas like Wakefield, as the old cash in on their property gains in the cities and move back to the less urban areas of their youth.
Yep, the urge to go back to your roots in later life can be strong. Not for me though. I seem to be immune from that.
Nice of NZ to clear out our top 4 so THE GINGER MACHINES can tonk it all over Headingley
Well now they know about that 120-year-old fastest Century record!
This is complete Muppetry, not test cricket. They are going to lose this match inside 3 days but look how "brave" they were (stupid being a better word).
The attempt to topple former Labour cabinet minister Baroness Scotland as Commonwealth Secretary General has failed, narrowly. Another unfortunate result for Boris Johnson today who wanted her replaced. https://twitter.com/latikambourke/status/1540332589294166017
So that's where she ended up. I guess it should give hope to Johnson that brazen charlatans can have success after politics.
Nice of NZ to clear out our top 4 so THE GINGER MACHINES can tonk it all over Headingley
Well now they know about that 120-year-old fastest Century record!
This is complete Muppetry, not test cricket. They are going to lose this match inside 3 days but look how "brave" they were (stupid being a better word).
Yes, they’re being influenced too much by the flamboyant short forms of the game, and bringing it to the Test arena at the worst possible moment. At 50/4, you want them to bat the day out, not be back in the pavilion after half an hour.
Nice of NZ to clear out our top 4 so THE GINGER MACHINES can tonk it all over Headingley
Well now they know about that 120-year-old fastest Century record!
This is complete Muppetry, not test cricket. They are going to lose this match inside 3 days but look how "brave" they were (stupid being a better word).
The counter attack was good. But instead of banking the win of the change of bowling and field, Stokes kept going and the result was inevitable.
There were two or three people on here in the early hours trying to troll that Wakefield was a. bad result for Labour. Utter rubbish.
Wakefield's swing of 12.7% is the seventh largest from Con to Lab at a by-election since 1945.
And the fact that this took place in the Red Wall is what makes it all the more encouraging for Labour.
But what should REALLY send a shiver down tory spines is that both by-elections show massive tactical voting, as @MikeSmithson has pointed out.
The next General Election will be a disaster for the tories if they keep on this path. That 11% national opinion polling Labour lead yesterday masks tactical voting. The tories are in for a mauling.
See Michael Thresher's excellent piece on Sky News if you don't believe me:
It wasn't disappointing as long as you don't want Labour to win a majority at the next election.
They need a swing of 10.4% on the current boundaries, probably slightly more on the new boundaries. If the most they can get at a by-election is 12.7% it's very unlikely they would get 10.4% at a general election.
It's going to have to be a progressive alliance / rainbow coalition.
There were two or three people on here in the early hours trying to troll that Wakefield was a. bad result for Labour. Utter rubbish.
Wakefield's swing of 12.7% is the seventh largest from Con to Lab at a by-election since 1945.
And the fact that this took place in the Red Wall is what makes it all the more encouraging for Labour.
But what should REALLY send a shiver down tory spines is that both by-elections show massive tactical voting, as @MikeSmithson has pointed out.
The next General Election will be a disaster for the tories if they keep on this path. That 11% national opinion polling Labour lead yesterday masks tactical voting. The tories are in for a mauling.
See Michael Thresher's excellent piece on Sky News if you don't believe me:
As Woolie pointed out, Lib Dems lost deposit in Wakefield last time too, so tactical voting played what part there this time, unless you calling it anti labour tactical vote last time. Tactical votes submerged in Devon too under mountain of Con To lib movement. Thresher called that wrong too, I can only presume it was sleep depravation, or else he’s the disgruntled Tory I think he is.
Thresher is not as good as I am now, at instantly spotting the story.
You and Anabob got to stop putting words in other people mouth in order to trash talk them. If Labour got 50-55% as I wanted them to, I would have been happy, something you can’t seem to get your head round. They didn’t smash it out the park as you try to spin it, I am more than happy to fight you on this with the psoudological facts and show you up.
Nice of NZ to clear out our top 4 so THE GINGER MACHINES can tonk it all over Headingley
Well now they know about that 120-year-old fastest Century record!
This is complete Muppetry, not test cricket. They are going to lose this match inside 3 days but look how "brave" they were (stupid being a better word).
There’s a balance to be struck. Last test we applauded, today not so much.
There were two or three people on here in the early hours trying to troll that Wakefield was a. bad result for Labour. Utter rubbish.
Wakefield's swing of 12.7% is the seventh largest from Con to Lab at a by-election since 1945.
And the fact that this took place in the Red Wall is what makes it all the more encouraging for Labour.
But what should REALLY send a shiver down tory spines is that both by-elections show massive tactical voting, as @MikeSmithson has pointed out.
The next General Election will be a disaster for the tories if they keep on this path. That 11% national opinion polling Labour lead yesterday masks tactical voting. The tories are in for a mauling.
See Michael Thresher's excellent piece on Sky News if you don't believe me:
Nice of NZ to clear out our top 4 so THE GINGER MACHINES can tonk it all over Headingley
Well now they know about that 120-year-old fastest Century record!
This is complete Muppetry, not test cricket. They are going to lose this match inside 3 days but look how "brave" they were (stupid being a better word).
There’s a balance to be struck. Last test we applauded, today not so much.
Last Test, when we applauded, was after tea on Day 5. This is after lunch on Day 2.
Inflation is running way ahead of savings and investment returns and pay increments. Those pay increments that are coming are getting scalped by soaring taxes.
The voters of Britain are getting poorer by the month. The future? even higher energy bills and a possible recession.
Nice of NZ to clear out our top 4 so THE GINGER MACHINES can tonk it all over Headingley
Well now they know about that 120-year-old fastest Century record!
This is complete Muppetry, not test cricket. They are going to lose this match inside 3 days but look how "brave" they were (stupid being a better word).
There’s a balance to be struck. Last test we applauded, today not so much.
Last Test, when we applauded, was after tea on Day 5. This is after lunch on Day 2.
True, but last year the test team refused to try to win against NZ. Different mind set. I’m not saying it’s right, just thins is the ying to the Trent bridge yang.
There were two or three people on here in the early hours trying to troll that Wakefield was a. bad result for Labour. Utter rubbish.
Wakefield's swing of 12.7% is the seventh largest from Con to Lab at a by-election since 1945.
And the fact that this took place in the Red Wall is what makes it all the more encouraging for Labour.
But what should REALLY send a shiver down tory spines is that both by-elections show massive tactical voting, as @MikeSmithson has pointed out.
The next General Election will be a disaster for the tories if they keep on this path. That 11% national opinion polling Labour lead yesterday masks tactical voting. The tories are in for a mauling.
See Michael Thresher's excellent piece on Sky News if you don't believe me:
The hot takes from @MoonRabbit in particular were completely bizarre. I assume it was sleep deprivation.
Moon does that a lot, they bring a lot of banter to this place
Yes, lot of the time we're being kidded by a moon rabbit, moon rabbit moon rabbit ...
I have been posting more than half a year and have started to enjoy being a psephologist.
psephology Is fun thing and suits me as you go into the spin room and pop all their balloons with your spiky stick of truth.
I think people getting to know me better now though as not fluffy but hard and full of myself. It’s how I roll. 🤷♀️
If someone wants to post the 11% lead is the accurate one and Labour smashed it out the park last night, I am more than happy to slap their fantasy with the cold hard psephologic reality where it’s going to be far harder and nervy than that.
I only wish the change of government was in the bag this evening, is honest truth from me. That’s what I want. But it’s not is the truth.
PB occasionally digresses into utterly pointless discussions. One of the most pointless is "will Boris call an early GE?".
It is a not-happening event, as I believe young people say. No way. Apologies for contributing to the pointlessness.
Yes it's one of those on my classic list of things PB always predicts but which never happen. There really are some quite tiresome examples:
• A 2022 general election • The United States splitting • A nationwide house price crash • The Bakerloo line closing down • Hillary Clinton being the 2024 Democratic candidate
Seems like a good point to remind everyone of my awesome 2022 predictions from 1 January:
PB Predictions 2022:
1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022. 2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls. 3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election. Oops! 4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November. 5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence. 6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world. 7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end. 8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue. Ah, bugger. 9. Bitcoin to collapse. 10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.
I have every chance of achieving a clean sweep by the end of the year.
Nice of NZ to clear out our top 4 so THE GINGER MACHINES can tonk it all over Headingley
Well now they know about that 120-year-old fastest Century record!
This is complete Muppetry, not test cricket. They are going to lose this match inside 3 days but look how "brave" they were (stupid being a better word).
We don't get amazing victories like that at Trent Bridge without running the risk of an abject failure like the innings so far today.
🚨🚨🚨 SUPREME COURT OVERTURNS ROE V. WADE ABORTION-RIGHTS RULING
Cat among pigeons in US politics, but RvW was always a very poor decision.
Note that this doesn’t ban abortion in the USA, but rather allows the States to legislate on the matter as they see fit.
Roe v Wade was a classic example of the Supreme Court starting from its conclusions and trying to find a bit of the constitution to justify them. It's much more surprising that it took so long to be overturned than that it has been now.
🚨🚨🚨 SUPREME COURT OVERTURNS ROE V. WADE ABORTION-RIGHTS RULING
Same sex marriage and birth control will be next.
They've explicitly said they are coming for Griswold so it will not be a surprise except to every American centrist pundit who has spent the last decade going "Republicans will never actually do X" up to and past the point where Republicans have done exactly that.
Nice of NZ to clear out our top 4 so THE GINGER MACHINES can tonk it all over Headingley
Well now they know about that 120-year-old fastest Century record!
This is complete Muppetry, not test cricket. They are going to lose this match inside 3 days but look how "brave" they were (stupid being a better word).
We don't get amazing victories like that at Trent Bridge without running the risk of an abject failure like the innings so far today.
🚨🚨🚨 SUPREME COURT OVERTURNS ROE V. WADE ABORTION-RIGHTS RULING
Cat among pigeons in US politics, but RvW was always a very poor decision.
Note that this doesn’t ban abortion in the USA, but rather allows the States to legislate on the matter as they see fit.
It puts a lot of the other penumbra rights at risk, and we're into the territory that the constitution guarantees only the rights that are enumerated within, rather than others.
EDIT: I'm pretty sure I read earlier today that they'd also taken the opportunity to make it even easier to obtain and carry guns. "Pro-life" my arse.
Yep that was yesterday - concealed weapons can be carried in New York...
What could possibly go wrong?
Trump's perfectly legitimate hijacking of SCOTUS will have ramifications for decades. His single term will go down in history as one of the most significant Presidential terms, but for all the wrong reasons.
PB occasionally digresses into utterly pointless discussions. One of the most pointless is "will Boris call an early GE?".
It is a not-happening event, as I believe young people say. No way. Apologies for contributing to the pointlessness.
Yes it's one of those on my classic list of things PB always predicts but which never happen. There really are some quite tiresome examples:
• A 2022 general election • The United States splitting • A nationwide house price crash • The Bakerloo line closing down • Hillary Clinton being the 2024 Democratic candidate
Seems like a good point to remind everyone of my awesome 2022 predictions from 1 January:
PB Predictions 2022:
1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022. 2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls. 3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election. Oops! 4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November. 5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence. 6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world. 7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end. 8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue. Ah, bugger. 9. Bitcoin to collapse. 10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.
I have every chance of achieving a clean sweep by the end of the year.
I will bet you my entire portfolio of NFTs that number 9 could well be correct.
1/3 Last night was a reminder that we must be relentless in cracking on with the job of delivering. Under @BorisJohnson we are massively investing in digital infrastructure which is accelerating growth and employment in our rapidly expanding tech sectors.
🚨🚨🚨 SUPREME COURT OVERTURNS ROE V. WADE ABORTION-RIGHTS RULING
Same sex marriage and birth control will be next.
There will be a series of 6-3 decisions turning back the clock and removing rights. On the upside women in particular might want to think a bit more seriously about who they vote for at state level.
There were two or three people on here in the early hours trying to troll that Wakefield was a. bad result for Labour. Utter rubbish.
Wakefield's swing of 12.7% is the seventh largest from Con to Lab at a by-election since 1945.
And the fact that this took place in the Red Wall is what makes it all the more encouraging for Labour.
But what should REALLY send a shiver down tory spines is that both by-elections show massive tactical voting, as @MikeSmithson has pointed out.
The next General Election will be a disaster for the tories if they keep on this path. That 11% national opinion polling Labour lead yesterday masks tactical voting. The tories are in for a mauling.
See Michael Thresher's excellent piece on Sky News if you don't believe me:
The hot takes from @MoonRabbit in particular were completely bizarre. I assume it was sleep deprivation.
Moon does that a lot, they bring a lot of banter to this place
Yes, lot of the time we're being kidded by a moon rabbit, moon rabbit moon rabbit ...
I have been posting more than half a year and have started to enjoy being a psephologist.
psephology Is fun thing and suits me as you go into the spin room and pop all their balloons with your spiky stick of truth.
I think people getting to know me better now though as not fluffy but hard and full of myself. It’s how I roll. 🤷♀️
If someone wants to post the 11% lead is the accurate one and Labour smashed it out the park last night, I am more than happy to slap their fantasy with the cold hard psephologic reality where it’s going to be far harder and nervy than that.
I only wish the change of government was in the bag this evening, is honest truth from me. That’s what I want. But it’s not is the truth.
I'm content with the 12.7% swing but, as you say, it's not remotely in the bag - Lab start from 13% back, so that swing represents a reversal of that lead mid-term, and is ahead of the polls. It was clear from the large local election swing that the Wakefield electorate was already quite tuned in to the upcoming by-election and again the 17% win almost exactly mirrored those locals.
Labour has never really done by-elections like the Lib Dems, at least not since WWII. Sky kept showing a largest Labour by-election gain swings, the top 10 were from 12% (a few clustered here) up to just over 20% in the 90s. My quick impression was most, but not all, were clustered in final terms of Tory rule. Tories have had 4 post war spells in office averaging 3 terms each, so if mid term advantage were meaningless only 1/3 of these swings would result in power turnover at the subsequent GE. It didn't seem like that, despite the presence of exceptions like Corby 2011.
So agree it's not in the bag as it was under Blair, but I don't especially think Labour need to be doing better on this specific metric.
I also think the small MoE variations in polling are broadly ignorable. A popular reading is that polls change on a relatively small number of key events and are steady much of the rest of the time. Since partygate cut through late last year and jolted the polls to a new level things have been pretty steady, oscillating a bit when it went quiet or flared up again. If you ascribe to that, then scan the horizon for nascent key events and set your psephological stall by those.
There were two or three people on here in the early hours trying to troll that Wakefield was a. bad result for Labour. Utter rubbish.
Wakefield's swing of 12.7% is the seventh largest from Con to Lab at a by-election since 1945.
And the fact that this took place in the Red Wall is what makes it all the more encouraging for Labour.
But what should REALLY send a shiver down tory spines is that both by-elections show massive tactical voting, as @MikeSmithson has pointed out.
The next General Election will be a disaster for the tories if they keep on this path. That 11% national opinion polling Labour lead yesterday masks tactical voting. The tories are in for a mauling.
See Michael Thresher's excellent piece on Sky News if you don't believe me:
The hot takes from @MoonRabbit in particular were completely bizarre. I assume it was sleep deprivation.
Moon does that a lot, they bring a lot of banter to this place
Yes, lot of the time we're being kidded by a moon rabbit, moon rabbit moon rabbit ...
I have been posting more than half a year and have started to enjoy being a psephologist.
psephology Is fun thing and suits me as you go into the spin room and pop all their balloons with your spiky stick of truth.
I think people getting to know me better now though as not fluffy but hard and full of myself. It’s how I roll. 🤷♀️
If someone wants to post the 11% lead is the accurate one and Labour smashed it out the park last night, I am more than happy to slap their fantasy with the cold hard psephologic reality where it’s going to be far harder and nervy than that.
I only wish the change of government was in the bag this evening, is honest truth from me. That’s what I want. But it’s not is the truth.
I'm content with the 12.7% swing but, as you say, it's not remotely in the bag - Lab start from 13% back, so that swing represents a reversal of that lead mid-term, and is ahead of the polls. It was clear from the large local election swing that the Wakefield electorate was already quite tuned in to the upcoming by-election and again the 17% win almost exactly mirrored those locals.
Labour has never really done by-elections like the Lib Dems, at least not since WWII. Sky kept showing a largest Labour by-election gain swings, the top 10 were from 12% (a few clustered here) up to just over 20% in the 90s. My quick impression was most, but not all, were clustered in final terms of Tory rule. Tories have had 4 post war spells in office averaging 3 terms each, so if mid term advantage were meaningless only 1/3 of these swings would result in power turnover at the subsequent GE. It didn't seem like that, despite the presence of exceptions like Corby 2011.
So agree it's not in the bag as it was under Blair, but I don't especially think Labour need to be doing better on this specific metric.
I also think the small MoE variations in polling are broadly ignorable. A popular reading is that polls change on a relatively small number of key events and are steady much of the rest of the time. Since partygate cut through late last year and jolted the polls to a new level things have been pretty steady, oscillating a bit when it went quiet or flared up again. If you ascribe to that, then scan the horizon for nascent key events and set your psephological stall by those.
Comments
Equally no matter how well planned the attempt to remove it is, 30 seconds later it will return floating to the top.
GWBWI
LDm +156
Lab +94
Grn +35
Con -52
Adjusted Seat Values:
LDm +2.6
Lab +1.6
Grn +0.6
Con -0.9
It's nearly July.
1/3 Last night was a reminder that we must be relentless in cracking on with the job of delivering. Under @BorisJohnson we are massively investing in digital infrastructure which is accelerating growth and employment in our rapidly expanding tech sectors.
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1540311828546392068
Which is about as solid a straw to be clutching at, as some of the arguments being made on PB the morning after.
To quote a Great American - "HA! HA! HA!"
If Tories want to be complacent about last night, please carry on.
2nd sentence left in by mistake.
In that (as I repeat) what Great British Public wants, is deliverance from the likes of BoJo and Mad Nad.
Dudley W - 29%
SE Staffs - 22%
Wirral S - 17%
That's the sort of swing they need to show to win. They are starting from further behind than in 1992, before anyone says "but, 1997 was a landslide, they don't need to win by as much as that". Nowhere near enough yet.
The Westminster MPs operate at a step removed from Holyrood so Sturgeon can't just directly boot him but it is clear he has lost her confidence. If he had any gumption he would walk now before he is very messily pushed.
coalitionsupply and confidence deal of chaos under starmer would suit me nicelyPatricia Scotland narrowly WINS. 27/24.
Johnson's bid to oust her as Commonwealth SG fails.
https://twitter.com/latikambourke/status/1540332589294166017
How to remove Boris Johnson from leadership of the Conservative Party:
The Conservative Party Constitution
Schedule 3 Para 12
Upon a petition signed by not less than sixty-five Association Chairmen (or Constituency Officers in the
case of Federations or multi-constituency Associations) to the Secretary of the National Convention, the
Chairman of the National Convention shall call an Extraordinary General Meeting of the National
Convention.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1540333478130384897
https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1540331527195746305
At the time the odds gave England a slight advantage over both the draw and NZ.
Also I have just realised this is my old account!
I'm from Thurnscoe.
The only international cricket I've got tickets for this summer.
As Woolie pointed out, Lib Dems lost deposit in Wakefield last time too, so tactical voting played what part there this time, unless you calling it anti labour tactical vote last time. Tactical votes submerged in Devon too under mountain of Con To lib movement. Thresher called that wrong too, I can only presume it was sleep depravation, or else he’s the disgruntled Tory I think he is.
Thresher is not as good as I am now, at instantly spotting the story.
You and Anabob got to stop putting words in other people mouth in order to trash talk them. If Labour got 50-55% as I wanted them to, I would have been happy, something you can’t seem to get your head round. They didn’t smash it out the park as you try to spin it, I am more than happy to fight you on this with the psoudological facts and show you up.
EDIT: I'm pretty sure I read earlier today that they'd also taken the opportunity to make it even easier to obtain and carry guns. "Pro-life" my arse.
Delivering on cost of living? fantasy. Seriously
Inflation is running way ahead of savings and investment returns and pay increments. Those pay increments that are coming are getting scalped by soaring taxes.
The voters of Britain are getting poorer by the month. The future? even higher energy bills and a possible recession.
Delivery FFS delusional.
Note that this doesn’t ban abortion in the USA, but rather allows the States to legislate on the matter as they see fit.
psephology Is fun thing and suits me as you go into the spin room and pop all their balloons with your spiky stick of truth.
I think people getting to know me better now though as not fluffy but hard and full of myself. It’s how I roll. 🤷♀️
If someone wants to post the 11% lead is the accurate one and Labour smashed it out the park last night, I am more than happy to slap their fantasy with the cold hard psephologic reality where it’s going to be far harder and nervy than that.
I only wish the change of government was in the bag this evening, is honest truth from me. That’s what I want. But it’s not is the truth.
PB Predictions 2022:
1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022.
2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls.
3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election. Oops!
4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November.
5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence.
6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world.
7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end.
8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue. Ah, bugger.
9. Bitcoin to collapse.
10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.
I have every chance of achieving a clean sweep by the end of the year.
Democracy, innit.
RvW basically ruled that the state can't prevent you getting a medical procedure. That seems fairly straight forward to me.
Does that mean you're working class and beat people up in your spare time?
'laser-like focus'? well, we could certainly do with some more coherence in government
[/physics joke]
I don’t see how else this ends. It is a fight to the death
Trump's perfectly legitimate hijacking of SCOTUS will have ramifications for decades. His single term will go down in history as one of the most significant Presidential terms, but for all the wrong reasons.
Labour has never really done by-elections like the Lib Dems, at least not since WWII. Sky kept showing a largest Labour by-election gain swings, the top 10 were from 12% (a few clustered here) up to just over 20% in the 90s. My quick impression was most, but not all, were clustered in final terms of Tory rule. Tories have had 4 post war spells in office averaging 3 terms each, so if mid term advantage were meaningless only 1/3 of these swings would result in power turnover at the subsequent GE. It didn't seem like that, despite the presence of exceptions like Corby 2011.
So agree it's not in the bag as it was under Blair, but I don't especially think Labour need to be doing better on this specific metric.
I also think the small MoE variations in polling are broadly ignorable. A popular reading is that polls change on a relatively small number of key events and are steady much of the rest of the time. Since partygate cut through late last year and jolted the polls to a new level things have been pretty steady, oscillating a bit when it went quiet or flared up again. If you ascribe to that, then scan the horizon for nascent key events and set your psephological stall by those.