SKS is pursuing the only route to Downing Street, the Cameron strategy
1. Face an unpopular prime minister 2. Fail to get a majority 3. Go into coalition with Lib Dems; take the credit for their policies, let them take the stick for yours 4. Annihiliate Lib Dems at following election, win majority 5. Get brought down by the Europe issue
MaxPB I hear your anger about the establishment I think the problem is UK society has become completely ossified perhaps we have just been too stable for too long
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
The exchequer is minting it from Max's salary through NI (Both of them) and income tax. A bigger question though is where do investment bank profits arise from. Do they truly generate wealth for the country, or is it an extraction that would otherwise have been earnt by other businesses. Despite our fs sector, our gdp per cap is absolubtely moribund compared to elsewhere (Particularly the USA if you look over the last decade or so). Why is that ?
Because we have the least productive workforce in the western world and given the choice between investment to improve productivity or adding another worker to the production line most firms go for the latter all the time.
SKS is pursuing the only route to Downing Street, the Cameron strategy
1. Face an unpopular prime minister 2. Fail to get a majority 3. Go into coalition with Lib Dems take the credit for their policies, let them take the stick for yours 4. Annihiliate Lib Dems at following election, win majority 5. Get brought down by the Europe issue
Sounds plausible to me
I hope you are well, haven't talked to you much recently
OGH is right on this. The next election will see massive anit Tory tactical voting which will benefit Labour in the Red Wall and the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall. A pincer movement that will lock the Tories out of power, maybe for a generation. The Lib Dems should demand electoral reform as a condition of supporting a minority Labour government, and then people can vote for their first choice again, confident it won't result in their last choice getting elected.
OGH is wrong about Wakefield. There was no tactical vote surge there. Tories lost 17%, Labour gained 8%. Blue wall, yes, big problems. Red wall, much less so. Labour are still toxic
You only have to be less toxic than your opponent and Labour is far less toxic than the Conservative Party as this result shows.
That's true at by elections.
A general election is a different kettle of fish.
What worries me about these results is that SKS might see it as a vindication of his strategy to have no policies and just win by default.
SKS certainly ought to see a recovery of this scale in a Red Wall seat as vindication of his strategy to try and leave Brexit and all things EU on the back burner.
Yes there's a need for Labour to be developing policies for this point on, but I don't think a smorgasbord of detail is what needed. What's more important is to have a clear restatement of values and to crystallise those into a relatively small number of well-understood headline policies that put those values into practice.
There needs to be positivity for the future, more than anything else. Cameron had it, as did Blair - and yes, as did Johnson.
Labour still presents itself as a group of worthy metropolitan lawyers, backed up by angry social activists and trade unionists. They need to have someone being positive.
I think whatever face Labour presents you'll manage to see that one.
So what are the positive reasons to vote Labour?
What’s their vision, their dream?
Do they need one at this stage?
As CHB repeats, Cameron put on nearly 100 seats with “time for change, current lot have fecked it up”.
OGH is right on this. The next election will see massive anit Tory tactical voting which will benefit Labour in the Red Wall and the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall. A pincer movement that will lock the Tories out of power, maybe for a generation. The Lib Dems should demand electoral reform as a condition of supporting a minority Labour government, and then people can vote for their first choice again, confident it won't result in their last choice getting elected.
OGH is wrong about Wakefield. There was no tactical vote surge there. Tories lost 17%, Labour gained 8%. Blue wall, yes, big problems. Red wall, much less so. Labour are still toxic
Do we know anything about the Independent in Wakefield who got 7% (above David Herdson)?
Basically a Tory. Former tory councillor. Which detracts a bit from the winning margin
But only serves to emphasise OGH's point about FPTP.
If tory inclined voters stick with them at a GE, yes very much so. If Boris goes i imagine some come home and 'protests' would diminish in a GE campaign
I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts
Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now
Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry
And if, in the process, the Tory core has to put up with some social liberalism that it finds distasteful, then tough. If it should come to pass, a heavy Conservative defeat at the next election that allows this to happen will be as much a monument to their greed as it will be to Johnson's self-absorption and venality.
Wokeness is not “social liberalism”, it is much more sinister than that
I entirely agree with you on the predatory pensioners. We need a government for the young
Unfortunately I don’t think Starmer’s Labour is it. They are as clueless - policy wise - as the Tories.
But then, looking at the headlines in today’s FT, with emergencies across the world from humble Sri Lanka to mighty America, with the EU warning of “terrible splits” in the bloc as Russia shuts off the gas, I wonder if any politician anywhere has even a vague idea how to handle what’s coming our way
Brace
I really hate the way particular groups are described in offensive ways - "feckless young", "predatory pensioners" etc. This sort of tribal culture war language will do nothing to repair society.
The current Tory party is exhausted and out of good ideas. Boris is a disgrace to his office and his government is degrading our democracy. His MPs should grow a spine, throw him out and start the process of rebuilding a Tory party that does not shame Britain. I doubt they will. But it is what they ought to do.if they don't the Tories will be out of power for a long time which will lead to the same problems with Labour. Parties that stay in power for too long become a menace.
We need policies for the hard-working of all ages, the young and those who are poor and just about managing. We need proper housebuilding, to do something about the grotesque interest rates on student loans and the absurd obstacles we have put in the way of those who try to export. We need proper investment in infrastructure in all parts of the country and we need to repair relations with our nearest neighbours.
We do not need more constitutional jiggery-pokery.
What we need above all is a government which explains clearly that times are going to be hard for the next few years as we deal with the consequences of Brexit, Covid and world instabilities so that all of us will have to tighten our belts but that this will need to be done fairly. No-one will be immune but we will try our damndest to make sure that those with the greatest wealth pay their fair share. For a start, NI on everyone who works, no matter what their age , rises in pensions should be no higher than what is offered to other public sector workers and council tax bands above the current highest levels to capture the increase in house values in recent years. I'd hugely increase the amount non-doms have to pay for their status as well and limit the amount rich people can give to charities and claim back from their tax as well.
Others will have other policies but they need to be presented as part of a narrative which explains that the next few years will be tough and that no-one will be exempt. Labour and the Lib Dems are still proposing to do something for the WASPI women, for instance - who have no legal case and are about as undeserving a group as you could find. This idea that you can throw sweeties at your favoured groups needs to be quashed.
We have to think hard about how we are going to earn our living and start doing it. For all of Labour's success so far I am not at all sure that there is much of a narrative from them on this. And if they don't develop one - with the policies to match and the steel to resist all the many claims made on them - they will end up being buffeted by events when in power.
The problem with this is that the pensioners are leeching from younger generations through rent and imposing huge pension rises on working age people, either via the state pension or RPI increases on final salary schemes that are paid for by current employees of companies. A tax on higher earning pensioners and clawbacks of the state pension would allow for taxes to be cut for working age people but Labour are simply too weak to pursue this policy.
Younger generations pointing out, fairly, that pensioners are predatory and thieving from younger generations to fund their retirements. Making it prohibitively expensive to own additional properties is the best way to solve this as it frees up millions of houses for purchase by young people who are currently priced out of the market by landlords and second home owners.
You want everyone to "get along" but while older generations are monopolising wealth and prosperity I see no reason for young people to be part of this grand bargain of "getting along" for the sake of it. It's up to older people to realise their selfishness is the cause of friction between the generations, they are leeching from their children and grandchildren yet want all of us to play nice because their parents made sacrifices while they made none.
I understand your frustration, but I don't really see why housing assets are so different from other assets. You could make the same argument about equities - if old people were banned from owning more than their "fair share" of those then their price would go down and young people could buy them more easily. Essentially your argument comes down to an argument against a fundamental tenet of a free capitalist society, that the state shouldn't interfere in the ownership of capital. It just so happens that in this particular case, you would be a beneficiary of this particular restriction! And in fact, stamp duty rules already favour owner occupiers, especially first time buyers. The reality is that some people will always want/need to rent. We rented for a while when we first came to London before we got on the housing ladder by buying an ex-LA flat on a slightly iffy estate, and I'm glad there was private rented accommodation available. By all means drive bad landlords out of the market and tilt things in favour of owner occupiers but the idea that all private renting is wrong seems rather extreme. I should declare an interest here as we are (hopefully) about to exchange on a BTL flat, which we will rent out to a refugee family at zero and possibly negative profit.
Housing and shares are completely different. Equities are not people's homes and you don't see young people forced to pay rent to equity owners.
When you say that you are going to get zero and 'possibly negative' profit on a BTL flat, do you mean you'll be donating any capital gains to charity? Or do you mean you'll be seeking to be cost-neutral on an annual basis because the rent on the flat will be covering any costs, but any capital gains will be banked?
Not making a short term profit on an annual basis doesn't mean you're not exploiting property to make a profit on a long-term if you're getting the capital gains and people are renting to cover your costs so you make relatively risk-free profits from the rent of others long term.
If Max has his way I will be seeing a capital loss not a gain. I just want something that holds its value in real terms when inflation is heading for 11%, to protect my savings that I have worked hard for and already been taxed on extensively. Getting criticised for this heinous act of profiteering and greed by two of the most ardent Thatcherites on here is... interesting.
I'm thinking of moving (a trade up not down) but with no big time imperative so I'm trying to come to a view on what likely happens to London house prices in a period of rising interest rates and stagflation. Not an easy one because there are lots of factors and some of them could possibly work both ways.
BJO please explain the latest 9 point lead and why Jeremy "give the material to Russia" would be doing so much better or why Andy "isn't austerity wonderful" Burnham would
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
The exchequer is minting it from Max's salary through NI (Both of them) and income tax. A bigger question though is where do investment bank profits arise from. Do they truly generate wealth for the country, or is it an extraction that would otherwise have been earnt by other businesses. Despite our fs sector, our gdp per cap is absolubtely moribund compared to elsewhere (Particularly the USA if you look over the last decade or so). Why is that ?
Yes that's the point Financial services subtract value from the rest of the economy If we taxed drugs dealers profits they would go around boasting they are the biggest contributors to the exchequer Does that make drugs dealing good and moral
@MaxPB and I often disagree but on the issues facing young people today I think we are aligned. We are fed up of being called feckless and lazy and having our taxes and student loans jacked up. I can assure you we are aligned with younger people
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
The exchequer is minting it from Max's salary through NI (Both of them) and income tax. A bigger question though is where do investment bank profits arise from. Do they truly generate wealth for the country, or is it an extraction that would otherwise have been earnt by other businesses. Despite our fs sector, our gdp per cap is absolubtely moribund compared to elsewhere (Particularly the USA if you look over the last decade or so). Why is that ?
I think one of the reasons is the massively inflated housing sector. Despite a brief dalliance with crypto, the USA sticks it's bread and butter into stocks in a way the UK simply doesn't. That means more working capital for companies which means they can go and buy up others even if they're insanely overvalued themselves. With UK housing, which is where the UK sticks it's cash there's no real way to extract economic gain from eternally rising house prices. So our companies don't have the capital to go marching off round the world in the same way American ones can.
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
If you had been visiting here for a long time you would know MaxPB's areas of expertise just from the value and quality of the information he posts on this site.
While I'm sure MaxPB is well paid there are other sectors of the economy (IT for one) who pay similar rates for such skills - financial services isn't anything special nowadays.
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
Invest in skills too, let's get the UK becoming a world leader in software engineering, coding for all kids from a young age. Subsidise tech degrees
MaxPB I hear your anger about the establishment I think the problem is UK society has become completely ossified perhaps we have just been too stable for too long
Not appreciating stability is a big mistake. Ask anyone who lives in a genuinely unstable country.
OGH is right on this. The next election will see massive anit Tory tactical voting which will benefit Labour in the Red Wall and the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall. A pincer movement that will lock the Tories out of power, maybe for a generation. The Lib Dems should demand electoral reform as a condition of supporting a minority Labour government, and then people can vote for their first choice again, confident it won't result in their last choice getting elected.
OGH is wrong about Wakefield. There was no tactical vote surge there. Tories lost 17%, Labour gained 8%. Blue wall, yes, big problems. Red wall, much less so. Labour are still toxic
Do we know anything about the Independent in Wakefield who got 7% (above David Herdson)?
Basically a Tory. Former tory councillor. Which detracts a bit from the winning margin
Oh wow, so two former Tory councillors 3rd and 4th.
Yes. Labour didn't quite get back to 2017 levels on a low turnout against an outgoing party who foisted a child sexual assaulter on the city. The Tory collapse in vote flattered them somewhat and id expect this to be a Labour held marginal (less than 5%) at a GE. On this sort of result, against this specific backdrop id say labour will struggle to retake the larger majoritues in the red wall on current boundaries like Bishop Auckland and Rother Valley
so far the psephologiy from this parliament, including last night as you describe and last months locals, fills us with little confidence the red wall is clearly coming home to Labour.
If anyone wants to turn up at next GE certain of change of government, not for a nervous night of close results in key places, they need to think again. The psephologiy isn’t supporting the Labour spin.
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
Invest in skills too, let's get the UK becoming a world leader in software engineering, coding for all kids from a young age. Subsidise tech degrees
Find a way to organise more technical degree apprenticeships - some of the ones I've seen are brilliant (British Aerospace for instance). The less I say about the DWP ones the better...
Oh and bootcamps - for every decent graduate with a computer science degree there are x bad ones who have been in appropriately taught for working in the real world)..
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
Invest in skills too, let's get the UK becoming a world leader in software engineering, coding for all kids from a young age. Subsidise tech degrees
Find a way to organise more technical degree apprenticeships - some of the ones I've seen are brilliant (British Aerospace for instance). The less I say about the DWP ones the better...
If QA is involved they will be shocking. One company I would happily see go bust
SKS is pursuing the only route to Downing Street, the Cameron strategy
1. Face an unpopular prime minister 2. Fail to get a majority 3. Go into coalition with Lib Dems take the credit for their policies, let them take the stick for yours 4. Annihiliate Lib Dems at following election, win majority 5. Get brought down by the Europe issue
Sounds plausible to me
I hope you are well, haven't talked to you much recently
I am, thank you.
Was absent for a couple of weeks due to baby number three being born. Wee little boy (actually not so wee, almost a pound more than his two siblings at birth!)
So, all the joy, exhaustion, frustration and joy again entailed in that. But mostly happiness. It's hard to look at a newborn getting cuddled by his older brother and sister and not feel happy.
Hope all good with you, CHB.
(By the way, @MaxPB - hope all good with you and your little'un. If you're lucky, things may be settling down a little bit by now?)
I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts
Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now
Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry
And if, in the process, the Tory core has to put up with some social liberalism that it finds distasteful, then tough. If it should come to pass, a heavy Conservative defeat at the next election that allows this to happen will be as much a monument to their greed as it will be to Johnson's self-absorption and venality.
Wokeness is not “social liberalism”, it is much more sinister than that
I entirely agree with you on the predatory pensioners. We need a government for the young
Unfortunately I don’t think Starmer’s Labour is it. They are as clueless - policy wise - as the Tories.
But then, looking at the headlines in today’s FT, with emergencies across the world from humble Sri Lanka to mighty America, with the EU warning of “terrible splits” in the bloc as Russia shuts off the gas, I wonder if any politician anywhere has even a vague idea how to handle what’s coming our way
Brace
I really hate the way particular groups are described in offensive ways - "feckless young", "predatory pensioners" etc. This sort of tribal culture war language will do nothing to repair society.
The current Tory party is exhausted and out of good ideas. Boris is a disgrace to his office and his government is degrading our democracy. His MPs should grow a spine, throw him out and start the process of rebuilding a Tory party that does not shame Britain. I doubt they will. But it is what they ought to do.if they don't the Tories will be out of power for a long time which will lead to the same problems with Labour. Parties that stay in power for too long become a menace.
We need policies for the hard-working of all ages, the young and those who are poor and just about managing. We need proper housebuilding, to do something about the grotesque interest rates on student loans and the absurd obstacles we have put in the way of those who try to export. We need proper investment in infrastructure in all parts of the country and we need to repair relations with our nearest neighbours.
We do not need more constitutional jiggery-pokery.
What we need above all is a government which explains clearly that times are going to be hard for the next few years as we deal with the consequences of Brexit, Covid and world instabilities so that all of us will have to tighten our belts but that this will need to be done fairly. No-one will be immune but we will try our damndest to make sure that those with the greatest wealth pay their fair share. For a start, NI on everyone who works, no matter what their age , rises in pensions should be no higher than what is offered to other public sector workers and council tax bands above the current highest levels to capture the increase in house values in recent years. I'd hugely increase the amount non-doms have to pay for their status as well and limit the amount rich people can give to charities and claim back from their tax as well.
Others will have other policies but they need to be presented as part of a narrative which explains that the next few years will be tough and that no-one will be exempt. Labour and the Lib Dems are still proposing to do something for the WASPI women, for instance - who have no legal case and are about as undeserving a group as you could find. This idea that you can throw sweeties at your favoured groups needs to be quashed.
We have to think hard about how we are going to earn our living and start doing it. For all of Labour's success so far I am not at all sure that there is much of a narrative from them on this. And if they don't develop one - with the policies to match and the steel to resist all the many claims made on them - they will end up being buffeted by events when in power.
The problem with this is that the pensioners are leeching from younger generations through rent and imposing huge pension rises on working age people, either via the state pension or RPI increases on final salary schemes that are paid for by current employees of companies. A tax on higher earning pensioners and clawbacks of the state pension would allow for taxes to be cut for working age people but Labour are simply too weak to pursue this policy.
Younger generations pointing out, fairly, that pensioners are predatory and thieving from younger generations to fund their retirements. Making it prohibitively expensive to own additional properties is the best way to solve this as it frees up millions of houses for purchase by young people who are currently priced out of the market by landlords and second home owners.
You want everyone to "get along" but while older generations are monopolising wealth and prosperity I see no reason for young people to be part of this grand bargain of "getting along" for the sake of it. It's up to older people to realise their selfishness is the cause of friction between the generations, they are leeching from their children and grandchildren yet want all of us to play nice because their parents made sacrifices while they made none.
I am an 'older person' who might well fall into your category of 'predatory and thieving' pensioner: In receipt of my FS pension (that I signed up to 40 years ago and stuck with throughout my working life), I got on the property ladder in my early 20s and am now living a comfortable retirement in my nice rent-free house with my good pension.
But here's the thing: WHAT WOULD YOU HAVE ME DO?
Unlike you I suspect, I have never voted for he Tories with their triple-lock nonsense and failure to extend NI to all income. Their failure to address the accumulation and protection of wealth through inheritance.
I can surely only continue to use my vote to bring about change.
So think about that before you get arsey and lump every one over 60 into your 'predatory thieving' category!
Do you own a BTL property if not the only impact for you would be - whatever approach is adopted to tax pensioners earning enough to be high rate tax (40%) - that assumes your total pension income is over £50,000 a year (which I doubt it is) and possibly the impact of switching from council tax to a tax based on the actual current value of your house.
I do not own a BTL.
Rolling out NI to all income would reduce my net income. But it's a fair thing to do, so I support it.
Similarly reform of CT or replacement by a wealth or property tax.
I support those things but @MaxPB has me a "predatory and thieving" pensioner - while he no doubt voted for this predatory and thieving government.
Me too. And IHT too.
Except a wealth/property tax does away with the need for IHT (because there is now nothing special about death)
There's a more important point here and a worrying one: The likes of Max and Barty need to take on board the fact that there is nothing *specifically* wrong with racism, it is just an instance of the general rule that you don't demonise groups of society on the basis of accidents of birth. Boomers are greedy bastards responsible for the state of the housing market sounds no different to me from Usurious jews have corrupted the financial system. This is a deadly serious point, not to be confused with half hearted claims that calling people gammons is tantamount to racism
The odd thing is, the usual response to racism is: go and talk to some people of colour, they might turn out to be quite like you. Yo'd have thought the boomer demonisers had pretty good access to some examples of the genre anyway.
If we simply aggregate the votes cast in the two seats last night, the Conservatives still came out on top with 24,500+ votes, followed by the LDs and Lab. The Conservatives were the only party not to loose a deposit, the LDs and Lab lost one deposit each, and every other party standing lost all their deposits.
Yet the Conservatives came out of it with zero seats, while the LDs and Lab got one each. What's clear is that the LDs and Lab are now potentially concentrating their votes very effectively, because voters are prepared to pile in behind either the LDs or Lab depending on which is judged capable of winning against the Conservatives. The Greens were squeezed in both seats compared to their national poll ratings.
In the light of that, it seems highly simplistic to continue to interpret national opinion polls based solely on the net Lab lead over the Conservatives, and to calculate seats gained based on uniform swing. That greatly understates the number of Conservative seats at risk. Just as important to me is the combined Lab/LD/Green vote, and how far that exceeds the Con vote.
So taking the two polls which showed Labour leads of 2% and 11% over virtually the same polling period, it's important to note also that the combined Lab/LD/Green vote exceeded the Con vote by 20% and 26% respectively.
I don't think there is evidence that Green votes are as tactically efficient as the Lab-LD vote, which rarely forms the top two candidates in any constituency. On the contrary, Green votes seem to pile up in Labour safe seats and rural Tory-LD contests.
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
But do you take personal risk with your money in these investments or do you just invest the banks money in a heads I win tails you lose scenario
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
Invest in skills too, let's get the UK becoming a world leader in software engineering, coding for all kids from a young age. Subsidise tech degrees
Need to address education then. We could start with why a qualified teaching assistant is a minimum wage job? And who would be willing to teach coding at those rates of pay?
MaxPB I hear your anger about the establishment I think the problem is UK society has become completely ossified perhaps we have just been too stable for too long
Not appreciating stability is a big mistake. Ask anyone who lives in a genuinely unstable country.
Yeah. I imagine a lot of Syrians and Ukrainians fancy a bit of Boring British Stability, right now
OGH is right on this. The next election will see massive anit Tory tactical voting which will benefit Labour in the Red Wall and the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall. A pincer movement that will lock the Tories out of power, maybe for a generation. The Lib Dems should demand electoral reform as a condition of supporting a minority Labour government, and then people can vote for their first choice again, confident it won't result in their last choice getting elected.
OGH is wrong about Wakefield. There was no tactical vote surge there. Tories lost 17%, Labour gained 8%. Blue wall, yes, big problems. Red wall, much less so. Labour are still toxic
Do we know anything about the Independent in Wakefield who got 7% (above David Herdson)?
Basically a Tory. Former tory councillor. Which detracts a bit from the winning margin
Oh wow, so two former Tory councillors 3rd and 4th.
Yes. Labour didn't quite get back to 2017 levels on a low turnout against an outgoing party who foisted a child sexual assaulter on the city. The Tory collapse in vote flattered them somewhat and id expect this to be a Labour held marginal (less than 5%) at a GE. On this sort of result, against this specific backdrop id say labour will struggle to retake the larger majoritues in the red wall on current boundaries like Bishop Auckland and Rother Valley
Anyway. How do you get away with that post? I’ve been saying exactly the same thing all night, now there’s drawings of me on the walls of the bogs with my head up Boris Johnson’s arse. 🤷♀️
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
Invest in skills too, let's get the UK becoming a world leader in software engineering, coding for all kids from a young age. Subsidise tech degrees
Need to address education then. We could start with why a qualified teaching assistant is a minimum wage job? And who would be able to teach coding at those rates?
That carries all the way through to universities - why would you teach computer science for £40k a year when you can earn £60k and have zero of the hassle of teaching people.
At the Christchurch by-election in 1993 a Tory majority of 23,000 was replaced by a LD majority of 16,500. Compared to that the Tiverton result doesn't look too bad: a 24,000 majority replaced by one of 6,000. The Tories won Christchurch back at the 1997 election by 2,000 votes.
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
Invest in skills too, let's get the UK becoming a world leader in software engineering, coding for all kids from a young age. Subsidise tech degrees
We invested in a code bootcamp company if that counts, one of the best things about tech startups is that they do help people grow their skills. One of the SaaS companies we invested in last year gives everyone a £1k per year budget and makes their people spend it via a portal.
I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts
Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now
Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry
And if, in the process, the Tory core has to put up with some social liberalism that it finds distasteful, then tough. If it should come to pass, a heavy Conservative defeat at the next election that allows this to happen will be as much a monument to their greed as it will be to Johnson's self-absorption and venality.
Wokeness is not “social liberalism”, it is much more sinister than that
I entirely agree with you on the predatory pensioners. We need a government for the young
Unfortunately I don’t think Starmer’s Labour is it. They are as clueless - policy wise - as the Tories.
But then, looking at the headlines in today’s FT, with emergencies across the world from humble Sri Lanka to mighty America, with the EU warning of “terrible splits” in the bloc as Russia shuts off the gas, I wonder if any politician anywhere has even a vague idea how to handle what’s coming our way
Brace
I really hate the way particular groups are described in offensive ways - "feckless young", "predatory pensioners" etc. This sort of tribal culture war language will do nothing to repair society.
The current Tory party is exhausted and out of good ideas. Boris is a disgrace to his office and his government is degrading our democracy. His MPs should grow a spine, throw him out and start the process of rebuilding a Tory party that does not shame Britain. I doubt they will. But it is what they ought to do.if they don't the Tories will be out of power for a long time which will lead to the same problems with Labour. Parties that stay in power for too long become a menace.
We need policies for the hard-working of all ages, the young and those who are poor and just about managing. We need proper housebuilding, to do something about the grotesque interest rates on student loans and the absurd obstacles we have put in the way of those who try to export. We need proper investment in infrastructure in all parts of the country and we need to repair relations with our nearest neighbours.
We do not need more constitutional jiggery-pokery.
What we need above all is a government which explains clearly that times are going to be hard for the next few years as we deal with the consequences of Brexit, Covid and world instabilities so that all of us will have to tighten our belts but that this will need to be done fairly. No-one will be immune but we will try our damndest to make sure that those with the greatest wealth pay their fair share. For a start, NI on everyone who works, no matter what their age , rises in pensions should be no higher than what is offered to other public sector workers and council tax bands above the current highest levels to capture the increase in house values in recent years. I'd hugely increase the amount non-doms have to pay for their status as well and limit the amount rich people can give to charities and claim back from their tax as well.
Others will have other policies but they need to be presented as part of a narrative which explains that the next few years will be tough and that no-one will be exempt. Labour and the Lib Dems are still proposing to do something for the WASPI women, for instance - who have no legal case and are about as undeserving a group as you could find. This idea that you can throw sweeties at your favoured groups needs to be quashed.
We have to think hard about how we are going to earn our living and start doing it. For all of Labour's success so far I am not at all sure that there is much of a narrative from them on this. And if they don't develop one - with the policies to match and the steel to resist all the many claims made on them - they will end up being buffeted by events when in power.
The problem with this is that the pensioners are leeching from younger generations through rent and imposing huge pension rises on working age people, either via the state pension or RPI increases on final salary schemes that are paid for by current employees of companies. A tax on higher earning pensioners and clawbacks of the state pension would allow for taxes to be cut for working age people but Labour are simply too weak to pursue this policy.
Younger generations pointing out, fairly, that pensioners are predatory and thieving from younger generations to fund their retirements. Making it prohibitively expensive to own additional properties is the best way to solve this as it frees up millions of houses for purchase by young people who are currently priced out of the market by landlords and second home owners.
You want everyone to "get along" but while older generations are monopolising wealth and prosperity I see no reason for young people to be part of this grand bargain of "getting along" for the sake of it. It's up to older people to realise their selfishness is the cause of friction between the generations, they are leeching from their children and grandchildren yet want all of us to play nice because their parents made sacrifices while they made none.
I am an 'older person' who might well fall into your category of 'predatory and thieving' pensioner: In receipt of my FS pension (that I signed up to 40 years ago and stuck with throughout my working life), I got on the property ladder in my early 20s and am now living a comfortable retirement in my nice rent-free house with my good pension.
But here's the thing: WHAT WOULD YOU HAVE ME DO?
Unlike you I suspect, I have never voted for he Tories with their triple-lock nonsense and failure to extend NI to all income. Their failure to address the accumulation and protection of wealth through inheritance.
I can surely only continue to use my vote to bring about change.
So think about that before you get arsey and lump every one over 60 into your 'predatory thieving' category!
Do you own a BTL property if not the only impact for you would be - whatever approach is adopted to tax pensioners earning enough to be high rate tax (40%) - that assumes your total pension income is over £50,000 a year (which I doubt it is) and possibly the impact of switching from council tax to a tax based on the actual current value of your house.
I do not own a BTL.
Rolling out NI to all income would reduce my net income. But it's a fair thing to do, so I support it.
Similarly reform of CT or replacement by a wealth or property tax.
I support those things but @MaxPB has me a "predatory and thieving" pensioner - while he no doubt voted for this predatory and thieving government.
I have been a renter. My parents rented all their life. In fact while my father was dying, the flat was sold to an appalling landlord who so neglected it that it became riddled with dry rot and damp so badly that it was declared unfit for human habitation under the 1952 Housing Act. Imagine a recently widowed woman and her children having to live in such conditions. It was one reason I got into law - to help my mother. It was one reason why I volunteered at the North Kensington Law Centre - to help those with similar housing problems. Those were the days when you could get Legal Aid (something which the Tory government has cut drastically).
I know what it is to have awful landlords. I have also seen the sort of crummy flats the young have to rent in London, one reason Daughter left. So I really don't need a well off City worker able to buy expensive flats and houses in Hampstead and North London lecturing me about Britain's broken rental market. Gove's recent proposed reforms seem sensible. A decent rental market is needed as exists in other European countries, which provides good quality housing and some level of security, as well as much more housebuilding for property to buy.
I don't have the answers. But I am a bit fed up of being picked on by @MaxPB who is almost certainly a lot better off than any of my three children and one of those who should certainly be paying more tax to help those worse off than him.
Part of the reason I pick on you a but Cyclefree is because you give as good as you get and I do enjoy the discussion and you make me think about issues from a different perspective, don't take it personally.
The other part is that you are ultimately part of the establishment and most of your solutions protect that establishment.
I'd smash it all up if I had the opportunity. The civil service, the landlords, the rentier class, all of it.
@MaxPB I find the last sentence of this a worryingly naive perspective. And when argued from a position of relative privilege and with such unwavering confidence it is symptomatic, I think, of a narrowness of worldly experience that is at the heart of why so many of those in power can't or don't serve the needs of all of the country. Dostoyevsky said it well: "ingenuous people and active figures are all active simply because they are dull and narrow minded. How to explain it? Here’s how: as a consequence of their narrow-mindedness, they take the most immediate and secondary causes for the primary ones, and thus become convinced more quickly and easily than others that they have found an indisputable basis for their doings, and so they feel at ease; and that, after all, is the main thing. For in order to begin to act, one must first be completely at ease, so that no more doubts remain."
SKS is pursuing the only route to Downing Street, the Cameron strategy
1. Face an unpopular prime minister 2. Fail to get a majority 3. Go into coalition with Lib Dems take the credit for their policies, let them take the stick for yours 4. Annihiliate Lib Dems at following election, win majority 5. Get brought down by the Europe issue
Sounds plausible to me
I hope you are well, haven't talked to you much recently
I am, thank you.
Was absent for a couple of weeks due to baby number three being born. Wee little boy (actualy not so wee, almost a pound more than his two siblings at birth!)
So, all the joy, exhaustion, frustration and joy again entailed in that. But mostly happiness. It's hard to look at a newborn getting cuddled by his older brother and sister and not feel happy.
Hope all good with you, CHB.
(By the way, @MaxPB - hope all good with you and your little'un. If you're lucky, things may be settling down a little bit by now?)
Woah, congratulations my friend, that is just amazing news. I am so thrilled you are happy
And to you too Max, I am glad you are staying in the UK and I am also thrilled for you and your wife
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
Invest in skills too, let's get the UK becoming a world leader in software engineering, coding for all kids from a young age. Subsidise tech degrees
We invested in a code bootcamp company if that counts, one of the best things about tech startups is that they do help people grow their skills. One of the SaaS companies we invested in last year gives everyone a £1k per year budget and makes their people spend it via a portal.
Yes I interviewed for a few startups that did something similar. It's a good idea.
I quite like the startup scene having come from a very corporate background in jobs prior
OGH is right on this. The next election will see massive anit Tory tactical voting which will benefit Labour in the Red Wall and the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall. A pincer movement that will lock the Tories out of power, maybe for a generation. The Lib Dems should demand electoral reform as a condition of supporting a minority Labour government, and then people can vote for their first choice again, confident it won't result in their last choice getting elected.
OGH is wrong about Wakefield. There was no tactical vote surge there. Tories lost 17%, Labour gained 8%. Blue wall, yes, big problems. Red wall, much less so. Labour are still toxic
Do we know anything about the Independent in Wakefield who got 7% (above David Herdson)?
Basically a Tory. Former tory councillor. Which detracts a bit from the winning margin
Oh wow, so two former Tory councillors 3rd and 4th.
Yes. Labour didn't quite get back to 2017 levels on a low turnout against an outgoing party who foisted a child sexual assaulter on the city. The Tory collapse in vote flattered them somewhat and id expect this to be a Labour held marginal (less than 5%) at a GE. On this sort of result, against this specific backdrop id say labour will struggle to retake the larger majoritues in the red wall on current boundaries like Bishop Auckland and Rother Valley
so far the psephologiy from this parliament, including last night as you describe and last months locals, fills us with little confidence the red wall is clearly coming home to Labour.
If anyone wants to turn up at next GE certain of change of government, not for a nervous night of close results in key places, they need to think again. The psephologiy isn’t supporting the Labour spin.
Agreed. Labour did not do as well last night as in the locals in May in Wakefield, there is no clamour for a Labour government. There IS clamour for Johnson to be gone. Now. In the South, however........
MaxPB I hear your anger about the establishment I think the problem is UK society has become completely ossified perhaps we have just been too stable for too long
Not appreciating stability is a big mistake. Ask anyone who lives in a genuinely unstable country.
No but countries can be stable for too long paradoxically Those like the Netherlands which were invaded during ww2 are in many ways better countries now
Your prediction skills aren't turning out to be so good
Evidence please to support that lie?
Do you ever look at what someone is posting and saying? In what mind my posting LLG 59 means I have my head up Boris Johnson’s arse?
If you don’t like the psephology I am posting here, the decent thing is to challenge the psephology not try to trash the poster. Quite a few of you have let yourselves down over the last 24hrs hours in that regard.
I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts
Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now
Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry
And if, in the process, the Tory core has to put up with some social liberalism that it finds distasteful, then tough. If it should come to pass, a heavy Conservative defeat at the next election that allows this to happen will be as much a monument to their greed as it will be to Johnson's self-absorption and venality.
Wokeness is not “social liberalism”, it is much more sinister than that
I entirely agree with you on the predatory pensioners. We need a government for the young
Unfortunately I don’t think Starmer’s Labour is it. They are as clueless - policy wise - as the Tories.
But then, looking at the headlines in today’s FT, with emergencies across the world from humble Sri Lanka to mighty America, with the EU warning of “terrible splits” in the bloc as Russia shuts off the gas, I wonder if any politician anywhere has even a vague idea how to handle what’s coming our way
Brace
I really hate the way particular groups are described in offensive ways - "feckless young", "predatory pensioners" etc. This sort of tribal culture war language will do nothing to repair society.
The current Tory party is exhausted and out of good ideas. Boris is a disgrace to his office and his government is degrading our democracy. His MPs should grow a spine, throw him out and start the process of rebuilding a Tory party that does not shame Britain. I doubt they will. But it is what they ought to do.if they don't the Tories will be out of power for a long time which will lead to the same problems with Labour. Parties that stay in power for too long become a menace.
We need policies for the hard-working of all ages, the young and those who are poor and just about managing. We need proper housebuilding, to do something about the grotesque interest rates on student loans and the absurd obstacles we have put in the way of those who try to export. We need proper investment in infrastructure in all parts of the country and we need to repair relations with our nearest neighbours.
We do not need more constitutional jiggery-pokery.
What we need above all is a government which explains clearly that times are going to be hard for the next few years as we deal with the consequences of Brexit, Covid and world instabilities so that all of us will have to tighten our belts but that this will need to be done fairly. No-one will be immune but we will try our damndest to make sure that those with the greatest wealth pay their fair share. For a start, NI on everyone who works, no matter what their age , rises in pensions should be no higher than what is offered to other public sector workers and council tax bands above the current highest levels to capture the increase in house values in recent years. I'd hugely increase the amount non-doms have to pay for their status as well and limit the amount rich people can give to charities and claim back from their tax as well.
Others will have other policies but they need to be presented as part of a narrative which explains that the next few years will be tough and that no-one will be exempt. Labour and the Lib Dems are still proposing to do something for the WASPI women, for instance - who have no legal case and are about as undeserving a group as you could find. This idea that you can throw sweeties at your favoured groups needs to be quashed.
We have to think hard about how we are going to earn our living and start doing it. For all of Labour's success so far I am not at all sure that there is much of a narrative from them on this. And if they don't develop one - with the policies to match and the steel to resist all the many claims made on them - they will end up being buffeted by events when in power.
The problem with this is that the pensioners are leeching from younger generations through rent and imposing huge pension rises on working age people, either via the state pension or RPI increases on final salary schemes that are paid for by current employees of companies. A tax on higher earning pensioners and clawbacks of the state pension would allow for taxes to be cut for working age people but Labour are simply too weak to pursue this policy.
Younger generations pointing out, fairly, that pensioners are predatory and thieving from younger generations to fund their retirements. Making it prohibitively expensive to own additional properties is the best way to solve this as it frees up millions of houses for purchase by young people who are currently priced out of the market by landlords and second home owners.
You want everyone to "get along" but while older generations are monopolising wealth and prosperity I see no reason for young people to be part of this grand bargain of "getting along" for the sake of it. It's up to older people to realise their selfishness is the cause of friction between the generations, they are leeching from their children and grandchildren yet want all of us to play nice because their parents made sacrifices while they made none.
I am an 'older person' who might well fall into your category of 'predatory and thieving' pensioner: In receipt of my FS pension (that I signed up to 40 years ago and stuck with throughout my working life), I got on the property ladder in my early 20s and am now living a comfortable retirement in my nice rent-free house with my good pension.
But here's the thing: WHAT WOULD YOU HAVE ME DO?
Unlike you I suspect, I have never voted for he Tories with their triple-lock nonsense and failure to extend NI to all income. Their failure to address the accumulation and protection of wealth through inheritance.
I can surely only continue to use my vote to bring about change.
So think about that before you get arsey and lump every one over 60 into your 'predatory thieving' category!
Do you own a BTL property if not the only impact for you would be - whatever approach is adopted to tax pensioners earning enough to be high rate tax (40%) - that assumes your total pension income is over £50,000 a year (which I doubt it is) and possibly the impact of switching from council tax to a tax based on the actual current value of your house.
I do not own a BTL.
Rolling out NI to all income would reduce my net income. But it's a fair thing to do, so I support it.
Similarly reform of CT or replacement by a wealth or property tax.
I support those things but @MaxPB has me a "predatory and thieving" pensioner - while he no doubt voted for this predatory and thieving government.
Me too. And IHT too.
Except a wealth/property tax does away with the need for IHT (because there is now nothing special about death)
There's a more important point here and a worrying one: The likes of Max and Barty need to take on board the fact that there is nothing *specifically* wrong with racism, it is just an instance of the general rule that you don't demonise groups of society on the basis of accidents of birth. Boomers are greedy bastards responsible for the state of the housing market sounds no different to me from Usurious jews have corrupted the financial system. This is a deadly serious point, not to be confused with half hearted claims that calling people gammons is tantamount to racism
The odd thing is, the usual response to racism is: go and talk to some people of colour, they might turn out to be quite like you. Yo'd have thought the boomer demonisers had pretty good access to some examples of the genre anyway.
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
Invest in skills too, let's get the UK becoming a world leader in software engineering, coding for all kids from a young age. Subsidise tech degrees
We invested in a code bootcamp company if that counts, one of the best things about tech startups is that they do help people grow their skills. One of the SaaS companies we invested in last year gives everyone a £1k per year budget and makes their people spend it via a portal.
Silly question - is that portal a different SaaS? It feels like something that I could use with something I'm working on (provided I can find ways past a few HMRC hoops)...
SKS is pursuing the only route to Downing Street, the Cameron strategy
1. Face an unpopular prime minister 2. Fail to get a majority 3. Go into coalition with Lib Dems take the credit for their policies, let them take the stick for yours 4. Annihiliate Lib Dems at following election, win majority 5. Get brought down by the Europe issue
Sounds plausible to me
I hope you are well, haven't talked to you much recently
I am, thank you.
Was absent for a couple of weeks due to baby number three being born. Wee little boy (actualy not so wee, almost a pound more than his two siblings at birth!)
So, all the joy, exhaustion, frustration and joy again entailed in that. But mostly happiness. It's hard to look at a newborn getting cuddled by his older brother and sister and not feel happy.
Hope all good with you, CHB.
(By the way, @MaxPB - hope all good with you and your little'un. If you're lucky, things may be settling down a little bit by now?)
Congratulations !
Mine's outgrowing her 0-1 month stuff but too small for 0-3. She's got long legs for her centile...; Well her mum is 6'1. You're of course now an experienced pro with the nappies
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
Invest in skills too, let's get the UK becoming a world leader in software engineering, coding for all kids from a young age. Subsidise tech degrees
Find a way to organise more technical degree apprenticeships - some of the ones I've seen are brilliant (British Aerospace for instance). The less I say about the DWP ones the better...
Oh and bootcamps - for every decent graduate with a computer science degree there are x bad ones who have been in appropriately taught for working in the real world)..
The modern apprenticeship system, introduced by the Conservatives, is a nightmare of regulations and red tape that stifles competition among education providers.
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
Invest in skills too, let's get the UK becoming a world leader in software engineering, coding for all kids from a young age. Subsidise tech degrees
Need to address education then. We could start with why a qualified teaching assistant is a minimum wage job? And who would be able to teach coding at those rates?
That carries all the way through to universities - why would you teach computer science for £40k a year when you can earn £60k and have zero of the hassle of teaching people.
And at the other end. We have people whose job it is to help those struggling with reading and numeracy at an early age who would make more on the tills at Lidl. Remember. This is minimum wage during term time only.
I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts
Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now
Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry
And if, in the process, the Tory core has to put up with some social liberalism that it finds distasteful, then tough. If it should come to pass, a heavy Conservative defeat at the next election that allows this to happen will be as much a monument to their greed as it will be to Johnson's self-absorption and venality.
Wokeness is not “social liberalism”, it is much more sinister than that
I entirely agree with you on the predatory pensioners. We need a government for the young
Unfortunately I don’t think Starmer’s Labour is it. They are as clueless - policy wise - as the Tories.
But then, looking at the headlines in today’s FT, with emergencies across the world from humble Sri Lanka to mighty America, with the EU warning of “terrible splits” in the bloc as Russia shuts off the gas, I wonder if any politician anywhere has even a vague idea how to handle what’s coming our way
Brace
I really hate the way particular groups are described in offensive ways - "feckless young", "predatory pensioners" etc. This sort of tribal culture war language will do nothing to repair society.
The current Tory party is exhausted and out of good ideas. Boris is a disgrace to his office and his government is degrading our democracy. His MPs should grow a spine, throw him out and start the process of rebuilding a Tory party that does not shame Britain. I doubt they will. But it is what they ought to do.if they don't the Tories will be out of power for a long time which will lead to the same problems with Labour. Parties that stay in power for too long become a menace.
We need policies for the hard-working of all ages, the young and those who are poor and just about managing. We need proper housebuilding, to do something about the grotesque interest rates on student loans and the absurd obstacles we have put in the way of those who try to export. We need proper investment in infrastructure in all parts of the country and we need to repair relations with our nearest neighbours.
We do not need more constitutional jiggery-pokery.
What we need above all is a government which explains clearly that times are going to be hard for the next few years as we deal with the consequences of Brexit, Covid and world instabilities so that all of us will have to tighten our belts but that this will need to be done fairly. No-one will be immune but we will try our damndest to make sure that those with the greatest wealth pay their fair share. For a start, NI on everyone who works, no matter what their age , rises in pensions should be no higher than what is offered to other public sector workers and council tax bands above the current highest levels to capture the increase in house values in recent years. I'd hugely increase the amount non-doms have to pay for their status as well and limit the amount rich people can give to charities and claim back from their tax as well.
Others will have other policies but they need to be presented as part of a narrative which explains that the next few years will be tough and that no-one will be exempt. Labour and the Lib Dems are still proposing to do something for the WASPI women, for instance - who have no legal case and are about as undeserving a group as you could find. This idea that you can throw sweeties at your favoured groups needs to be quashed.
We have to think hard about how we are going to earn our living and start doing it. For all of Labour's success so far I am not at all sure that there is much of a narrative from them on this. And if they don't develop one - with the policies to match and the steel to resist all the many claims made on them - they will end up being buffeted by events when in power.
The problem with this is that the pensioners are leeching from younger generations through rent and imposing huge pension rises on working age people, either via the state pension or RPI increases on final salary schemes that are paid for by current employees of companies. A tax on higher earning pensioners and clawbacks of the state pension would allow for taxes to be cut for working age people but Labour are simply too weak to pursue this policy.
Younger generations pointing out, fairly, that pensioners are predatory and thieving from younger generations to fund their retirements. Making it prohibitively expensive to own additional properties is the best way to solve this as it frees up millions of houses for purchase by young people who are currently priced out of the market by landlords and second home owners.
You want everyone to "get along" but while older generations are monopolising wealth and prosperity I see no reason for young people to be part of this grand bargain of "getting along" for the sake of it. It's up to older people to realise their selfishness is the cause of friction between the generations, they are leeching from their children and grandchildren yet want all of us to play nice because their parents made sacrifices while they made none.
I am not a pensioner and am very concerned about the future for the young. I don't think rude language helps, that's all. There are poor pensioners and rich young. You are one of the latter. I know quite a few poor pensioners in Millom who have not been stealing anything from anyone and have little in the way of assets. People like you should be taxed more to help people like them.
I have proposed both below the line and above it a number of proposals which would shift the balance away from the wealthy to those who work, especially the young.
We are I think broadly in agreement that too much policy has been aimed at only one group of favoured voters which is bad policy and bad for the economy and society. But I find it grimly amusing that it is you which has been a cheerleader for the Tory party and its policies which have largely been responsible for this for the last 12 years.
Rather than castigating me perhaps you might reflect on whether your support for that party has been in part responsible for the policies you now say you dislike.
Firstly, I already pay significant tax, at last count more than 45% of my gross income was spent on income and other taxes last year. The top 1% of earners in this country contribute ever more in tax, it was 27% two years ago. The idea that high earners don't contribute enough is frankly ridiculous. Let's start with NI on pension income, state pension clawback for higher rate pensioners before we start increasing the burden, yet again, on working people. Let's increase tax on unproductive and unearned income like dividends, rent and some forms of capital before attacking working people (either via income taxes or corporate taxes that will drag on pay growth). Lets bloody put a super-tax on cruises if we need to claw back money from wealthy old people.
What we also don't do us tax accumulated lifetime wealth during retirement and we should. We have trillions of non-primary housing assets locked up by older people who don't spend it and it isn't properly taxed. Even if we looked at how discretionary trusts are taxed that would be a start. If taxes go up on older wealthy people then that's taxes which don't have to go up on working age people, it also means older people will self fund their generation's health and care needs rather than putting the burden onto working age people.
Labour needs a radical approach on the generational wealth gap and to "speak truth to power" call out the older generation as selfish, make them look at themselves in the mirror and ask how they think their 11% pension rises will be funded, are they impoverishing their children and grandchildren in the process. Ask them if they are as selfish as everyone believes or are they willing to make the same sacrifices as everyone else is being asked? I think a bout of honesty for older people is necessary but Starmer isn't a strong enough leader to do it. Neither is Boris, of course.
That's a very long way of saying "more tax needs to be paid but not by me".
Leader of Welsh Conservatives Andrew RT Davies @BBCRadioWales: ‘Each&every day the Prime Minister gets up, like any leader, they have to look in the mirror&ask themselves 'can they continue to deliver for their country and for the people who have put them into office?'
OGH is right on this. The next election will see massive anit Tory tactical voting which will benefit Labour in the Red Wall and the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall. A pincer movement that will lock the Tories out of power, maybe for a generation. The Lib Dems should demand electoral reform as a condition of supporting a minority Labour government, and then people can vote for their first choice again, confident it won't result in their last choice getting elected.
OGH is wrong about Wakefield. There was no tactical vote surge there. Tories lost 17%, Labour gained 8%. Blue wall, yes, big problems. Red wall, much less so. Labour are still toxic
Do we know anything about the Independent in Wakefield who got 7% (above David Herdson)?
Basically a Tory. Former tory councillor. Which detracts a bit from the winning margin
Oh wow, so two former Tory councillors 3rd and 4th.
Yes. Labour didn't quite get back to 2017 levels on a low turnout against an outgoing party who foisted a child sexual assaulter on the city. The Tory collapse in vote flattered them somewhat and id expect this to be a Labour held marginal (less than 5%) at a GE. On this sort of result, against this specific backdrop id say labour will struggle to retake the larger majoritues in the red wall on current boundaries like Bishop Auckland and Rother Valley
Anyway. How do you get away with that post? I’ve been saying exactly the same thing all night, now there’s drawings of me on the walls of the bogs with my head up Boris Johnson’s arse. 🤷♀️
Im sexy as hell Rabbit. Everyone here loves me and despairs
OGH is right on this. The next election will see massive anit Tory tactical voting which will benefit Labour in the Red Wall and the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall. A pincer movement that will lock the Tories out of power, maybe for a generation. The Lib Dems should demand electoral reform as a condition of supporting a minority Labour government, and then people can vote for their first choice again, confident it won't result in their last choice getting elected.
OGH is wrong about Wakefield. There was no tactical vote surge there. Tories lost 17%, Labour gained 8%. Blue wall, yes, big problems. Red wall, much less so. Labour are still toxic
Do we know anything about the Independent in Wakefield who got 7% (above David Herdson)?
Basically a Tory. Former tory councillor. Which detracts a bit from the winning margin
Oh wow, so two former Tory councillors 3rd and 4th.
Yes. Labour didn't quite get back to 2017 levels on a low turnout against an outgoing party who foisted a child sexual assaulter on the city. The Tory collapse in vote flattered them somewhat and id expect this to be a Labour held marginal (less than 5%) at a GE. On this sort of result, against this specific backdrop id say labour will struggle to retake the larger majoritues in the red wall on current boundaries like Bishop Auckland and Rother Valley
so far the psephologiy from this parliament, including last night as you describe and last months locals, fills us with little confidence the red wall is clearly coming home to Labour.
If anyone wants to turn up at next GE certain of change of government, not for a nervous night of close results in key places, they need to think again. The psephologiy isn’t supporting the Labour spin.
Agreed. Labour did not do as well last night as in the locals in May in Wakefield, there is no clamour for a Labour government. There IS clamour for Johnson to be gone. Now. In the South, however........
The independent candidate who came third in Wakefield is a conservative I think?
East African Indians. Part of the reason I take the view of the establishment I do is because I have an outsider's perspective on it.
You haven't answered my question on whether you take personal risks with your money I assume you don't therefore and are just risking the banks money in a heads I win tails you lose scenario correct
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
But do you take personal risk with your money in these investments or do you just invest the banks money in a heads I win tails you lose scenario
It's investor money (we don't proprietary invest), and don't blame me for the changing of bonus rules that made my salary very high and performance pay much lower. Both TSE and I pointed out this would be the result of the idiotic bonus cap the EU introduced.
And the tails for me is losing my job, so the idea that I win either way is frankly ridiculous. You seem to be a very bitter and jealous person, did you, by any chance, not cut it in financial services and now hate everyone who did make it?
East African Indians. Part of the reason I take the view of the establishment I do is because I have an outsider's perspective on it.
You haven't answered my question on whether you take personal risks with your money I assume you don't therefore and are just risking the banks money in a heads I win tails you lose scenario correct
OGH is right on this. The next election will see massive anit Tory tactical voting which will benefit Labour in the Red Wall and the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall. A pincer movement that will lock the Tories out of power, maybe for a generation. The Lib Dems should demand electoral reform as a condition of supporting a minority Labour government, and then people can vote for their first choice again, confident it won't result in their last choice getting elected.
OGH is wrong about Wakefield. There was no tactical vote surge there. Tories lost 17%, Labour gained 8%. Blue wall, yes, big problems. Red wall, much less so. Labour are still toxic
Do we know anything about the Independent in Wakefield who got 7% (above David Herdson)?
Basically a Tory. Former tory councillor. Which detracts a bit from the winning margin
Oh wow, so two former Tory councillors 3rd and 4th.
Yes. Labour didn't quite get back to 2017 levels on a low turnout against an outgoing party who foisted a child sexual assaulter on the city. The Tory collapse in vote flattered them somewhat and id expect this to be a Labour held marginal (less than 5%) at a GE. On this sort of result, against this specific backdrop id say labour will struggle to retake the larger majoritues in the red wall on current boundaries like Bishop Auckland and Rother Valley
so far the psephologiy from this parliament, including last night as you describe and last months locals, fills us with little confidence the red wall is clearly coming home to Labour.
If anyone wants to turn up at next GE certain of change of government, not for a nervous night of close results in key places, they need to think again. The psephologiy isn’t supporting the Labour spin.
Agreed. Labour did not do as well last night as in the locals in May in Wakefield, there is no clamour for a Labour government. There IS clamour for Johnson to be gone. Now. In the South, however........
The independent candidate who came third in Wakefield is a conservative I think?
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
Invest in skills too, let's get the UK becoming a world leader in software engineering, coding for all kids from a young age. Subsidise tech degrees
We invested in a code bootcamp company if that counts, one of the best things about tech startups is that they do help people grow their skills. One of the SaaS companies we invested in last year gives everyone a £1k per year budget and makes their people spend it via a portal.
Silly question - is that portal a different SaaS? It feels like something that I could use with something I'm working on (provided I can find ways past a few HMRC hoops)...
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
But do you take personal risk with your money in these investments or do you just invest the banks money in a heads I win tails you lose scenario
It's investor money (we don't proprietary invest), and don't blame me for the changing of bonus rules that made my salary very high and performance pay much lower. Both TSE and I pointed out this would be the result of the idiotic bonus cap the EU introduced.
And the tails for me is losing my job, so the idea that I win either way is frankly ridiculous. You seem to be a very bitter and jealous person, did you, by any chance, not cut it in financial services and now hate everyone who did make it?
Yes. If you fuck up, you lose your job, potentially your career
Unlike about 90% of the people in the public sector…
OGH is right on this. The next election will see massive anit Tory tactical voting which will benefit Labour in the Red Wall and the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall. A pincer movement that will lock the Tories out of power, maybe for a generation. The Lib Dems should demand electoral reform as a condition of supporting a minority Labour government, and then people can vote for their first choice again, confident it won't result in their last choice getting elected.
OGH is wrong about Wakefield. There was no tactical vote surge there. Tories lost 17%, Labour gained 8%. Blue wall, yes, big problems. Red wall, much less so. Labour are still toxic
Do we know anything about the Independent in Wakefield who got 7% (above David Herdson)?
Basically a Tory. Former tory councillor. Which detracts a bit from the winning margin
Oh wow, so two former Tory councillors 3rd and 4th.
Yes. Labour didn't quite get back to 2017 levels on a low turnout against an outgoing party who foisted a child sexual assaulter on the city. The Tory collapse in vote flattered them somewhat and id expect this to be a Labour held marginal (less than 5%) at a GE. On this sort of result, against this specific backdrop id say labour will struggle to retake the larger majoritues in the red wall on current boundaries like Bishop Auckland and Rother Valley
so far the psephologiy from this parliament, including last night as you describe and last months locals, fills us with little confidence the red wall is clearly coming home to Labour.
If anyone wants to turn up at next GE certain of change of government, not for a nervous night of close results in key places, they need to think again. The psephologiy isn’t supporting the Labour spin.
Agreed. Labour did not do as well last night as in the locals in May in Wakefield, there is no clamour for a Labour government. There IS clamour for Johnson to be gone. Now. In the South, however........
The independent candidate who came third in Wakefield is a conservative I think?
Yes a former councillor for the Tories
So, all in all, Labour didn't exactly hit the ball out the park in Wakefield did they?
East African Indians. Part of the reason I take the view of the establishment I do is because I have an outsider's perspective on it.
You haven't answered my question on whether you take personal risks with your money I assume you don't therefore and are just risking the banks money in a heads I win tails you lose scenario correct
Why are you being so aggressive to Max?
It's not been aggressive to ask if he risks his own money He earns the big bucks so if he's that good he would be comfortable risking his own money if not ,,
And ti be fairhe was quite aggressive towards pensioners even if some of the ire is deserved
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
But do you take personal risk with your money in these investments or do you just invest the banks money in a heads I win tails you lose scenario
It's investor money (we don't proprietary invest), and don't blame me for the changing of bonus rules that made my salary very high and performance pay much lower. Both TSE and I pointed out this would be the result of the idiotic bonus cap the EU introduced.
And the tails for me is losing my job, so the idea that I win either way is frankly ridiculous. You seem to be a very bitter and jealous person, did you, by any chance, not cut it in financial services and now hate everyone who did make it?
Yes. If you fuck up, you lose your job, potentially your career
Unlike about 90% of the people in the public sector…
Indeed, the downside to working in an utterly ruthless sector is that it is utterly ruthless.
East African Indians. Part of the reason I take the view of the establishment I do is because I have an outsider's perspective on it.
Sorry lol I meant your company/employer.
Oh lol, no Asian.
I think this is a big issue, the lack of British ultimate parents in the UK. We're an exporter - ultimately if/when we produce dividends they head straight to Uncle Sam though.
I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts
Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now
Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry
And if, in the process, the Tory core has to put up with some social liberalism that it finds distasteful, then tough. If it should come to pass, a heavy Conservative defeat at the next election that allows this to happen will be as much a monument to their greed as it will be to Johnson's self-absorption and venality.
Wokeness is not “social liberalism”, it is much more sinister than that
I entirely agree with you on the predatory pensioners. We need a government for the young
Unfortunately I don’t think Starmer’s Labour is it. They are as clueless - policy wise - as the Tories.
But then, looking at the headlines in today’s FT, with emergencies across the world from humble Sri Lanka to mighty America, with the EU warning of “terrible splits” in the bloc as Russia shuts off the gas, I wonder if any politician anywhere has even a vague idea how to handle what’s coming our way
Brace
I really hate the way particular groups are described in offensive ways - "feckless young", "predatory pensioners" etc. This sort of tribal culture war language will do nothing to repair society.
The current Tory party is exhausted and out of good ideas. Boris is a disgrace to his office and his government is degrading our democracy. His MPs should grow a spine, throw him out and start the process of rebuilding a Tory party that does not shame Britain. I doubt they will. But it is what they ought to do.if they don't the Tories will be out of power for a long time which will lead to the same problems with Labour. Parties that stay in power for too long become a menace.
We need policies for the hard-working of all ages, the young and those who are poor and just about managing. We need proper housebuilding, to do something about the grotesque interest rates on student loans and the absurd obstacles we have put in the way of those who try to export. We need proper investment in infrastructure in all parts of the country and we need to repair relations with our nearest neighbours.
We do not need more constitutional jiggery-pokery.
What we need above all is a government which explains clearly that times are going to be hard for the next few years as we deal with the consequences of Brexit, Covid and world instabilities so that all of us will have to tighten our belts but that this will need to be done fairly. No-one will be immune but we will try our damndest to make sure that those with the greatest wealth pay their fair share. For a start, NI on everyone who works, no matter what their age , rises in pensions should be no higher than what is offered to other public sector workers and council tax bands above the current highest levels to capture the increase in house values in recent years. I'd hugely increase the amount non-doms have to pay for their status as well and limit the amount rich people can give to charities and claim back from their tax as well.
Others will have other policies but they need to be presented as part of a narrative which explains that the next few years will be tough and that no-one will be exempt. Labour and the Lib Dems are still proposing to do something for the WASPI women, for instance - who have no legal case and are about as undeserving a group as you could find. This idea that you can throw sweeties at your favoured groups needs to be quashed.
We have to think hard about how we are going to earn our living and start doing it. For all of Labour's success so far I am not at all sure that there is much of a narrative from them on this. And if they don't develop one - with the policies to match and the steel to resist all the many claims made on them - they will end up being buffeted by events when in power.
The problem with this is that the pensioners are leeching from younger generations through rent and imposing huge pension rises on working age people, either via the state pension or RPI increases on final salary schemes that are paid for by current employees of companies. A tax on higher earning pensioners and clawbacks of the state pension would allow for taxes to be cut for working age people but Labour are simply too weak to pursue this policy.
Younger generations pointing out, fairly, that pensioners are predatory and thieving from younger generations to fund their retirements. Making it prohibitively expensive to own additional properties is the best way to solve this as it frees up millions of houses for purchase by young people who are currently priced out of the market by landlords and second home owners.
You want everyone to "get along" but while older generations are monopolising wealth and prosperity I see no reason for young people to be part of this grand bargain of "getting along" for the sake of it. It's up to older people to realise their selfishness is the cause of friction between the generations, they are leeching from their children and grandchildren yet want all of us to play nice because their parents made sacrifices while they made none.
I am an 'older person' who might well fall into your category of 'predatory and thieving' pensioner: In receipt of my FS pension (that I signed up to 40 years ago and stuck with throughout my working life), I got on the property ladder in my early 20s and am now living a comfortable retirement in my nice rent-free house with my good pension.
But here's the thing: WHAT WOULD YOU HAVE ME DO?
Unlike you I suspect, I have never voted for he Tories with their triple-lock nonsense and failure to extend NI to all income. Their failure to address the accumulation and protection of wealth through inheritance.
I can surely only continue to use my vote to bring about change.
So think about that before you get arsey and lump every one over 60 into your 'predatory thieving' category!
Do you own a BTL property if not the only impact for you would be - whatever approach is adopted to tax pensioners earning enough to be high rate tax (40%) - that assumes your total pension income is over £50,000 a year (which I doubt it is) and possibly the impact of switching from council tax to a tax based on the actual current value of your house.
I do not own a BTL.
Rolling out NI to all income would reduce my net income. But it's a fair thing to do, so I support it.
Similarly reform of CT or replacement by a wealth or property tax.
I support those things but @MaxPB has me a "predatory and thieving" pensioner - while he no doubt voted for this predatory and thieving government.
I have been a renter. My parents rented all their life. In fact while my father was dying, the flat was sold to an appalling landlord who so neglected it that it became riddled with dry rot and damp so badly that it was declared unfit for human habitation under the 1952 Housing Act. Imagine a recently widowed woman and her children having to live in such conditions. It was one reason I got into law - to help my mother. It was one reason why I volunteered at the North Kensington Law Centre - to help those with similar housing problems. Those were the days when you could get Legal Aid (something which the Tory government has cut drastically).
I know what it is to have awful landlords. I have also seen the sort of crummy flats the young have to rent in London, one reason Daughter left. So I really don't need a well off City worker able to buy expensive flats and houses in Hampstead and North London lecturing me about Britain's broken rental market. Gove's recent proposed reforms seem sensible. A decent rental market is needed as exists in other European countries, which provides good quality housing and some level of security, as well as much more housebuilding for property to buy.
I don't have the answers. But I am a bit fed up of being picked on by @MaxPB who is almost certainly a lot better off than any of my three children and one of those who should certainly be paying more tax to help those worse off than him.
Part of the reason I pick on you a but Cyclefree is because you give as good as you get and I do enjoy the discussion and you make me think about issues from a different perspective, don't take it personally.
The other part is that you are ultimately part of the establishment and most of your solutions protect that establishment.
I'd smash it all up if I had the opportunity. The civil service, the landlords, the rentier class, all of it.
@MaxPB I find the last sentence of this a worryingly naive perspective. And when argued from a position of relative privilege and with such unwavering confidence it is symptomatic, I think, of a narrowness of worldly experience that is at the heart of why so many of those in power can't or don't serve the needs of all of the country. Dostoyevsky said it well: "ingenuous people and active figures are all active simply because they are dull and narrow minded. How to explain it? Here’s how: as a consequence of their narrow-mindedness, they take the most immediate and secondary causes for the primary ones, and thus become convinced more quickly and easily than others that they have found an indisputable basis for their doings, and so they feel at ease; and that, after all, is the main thing. For in order to begin to act, one must first be completely at ease, so that no more doubts remain."
I like Max a lot, much as I disagree with him on some things; this is one of them. Does British society need change ? Sure. But "smashing it all up" ? I hope that's just rhetorical. If not, all it represents is a guarantee of damage without any known benefit in return
OGH is right on this. The next election will see massive anit Tory tactical voting which will benefit Labour in the Red Wall and the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall. A pincer movement that will lock the Tories out of power, maybe for a generation. The Lib Dems should demand electoral reform as a condition of supporting a minority Labour government, and then people can vote for their first choice again, confident it won't result in their last choice getting elected.
OGH is wrong about Wakefield. There was no tactical vote surge there. Tories lost 17%, Labour gained 8%. Blue wall, yes, big problems. Red wall, much less so. Labour are still toxic
Do we know anything about the Independent in Wakefield who got 7% (above David Herdson)?
Basically a Tory. Former tory councillor. Which detracts a bit from the winning margin
Oh wow, so two former Tory councillors 3rd and 4th.
Yes. Labour didn't quite get back to 2017 levels on a low turnout against an outgoing party who foisted a child sexual assaulter on the city. The Tory collapse in vote flattered them somewhat and id expect this to be a Labour held marginal (less than 5%) at a GE. On this sort of result, against this specific backdrop id say labour will struggle to retake the larger majoritues in the red wall on current boundaries like Bishop Auckland and Rother Valley
so far the psephologiy from this parliament, including last night as you describe and last months locals, fills us with little confidence the red wall is clearly coming home to Labour.
If anyone wants to turn up at next GE certain of change of government, not for a nervous night of close results in key places, they need to think again. The psephologiy isn’t supporting the Labour spin.
Agreed. Labour did not do as well last night as in the locals in May in Wakefield, there is no clamour for a Labour government. There IS clamour for Johnson to be gone. Now. In the South, however........
The independent candidate who came third in Wakefield is a conservative I think?
Yes a former councillor for the Tories
So, all in all, Labour didn't exactly hit the ball out the park in Wakefield did they?
Careful. There’s only room for one head at a time up Boris Johnson’s arse.
But yes you are right.
It was by no means a disaster. It actually points an amazing ding dong general election night full of close battles and huge political betting. But for those of us who want a change to a lab Lib government and the “lost their way” Tory’s out of government, it was not the, as you put it, hit out the park result we were hoping for from a beautifully teed up by election ☹️
OGH is right on this. The next election will see massive anit Tory tactical voting which will benefit Labour in the Red Wall and the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall. A pincer movement that will lock the Tories out of power, maybe for a generation. The Lib Dems should demand electoral reform as a condition of supporting a minority Labour government, and then people can vote for their first choice again, confident it won't result in their last choice getting elected.
OGH is wrong about Wakefield. There was no tactical vote surge there. Tories lost 17%, Labour gained 8%. Blue wall, yes, big problems. Red wall, much less so. Labour are still toxic
Do we know anything about the Independent in Wakefield who got 7% (above David Herdson)?
Basically a Tory. Former tory councillor. Which detracts a bit from the winning margin
Oh wow, so two former Tory councillors 3rd and 4th.
Yes. Labour didn't quite get back to 2017 levels on a low turnout against an outgoing party who foisted a child sexual assaulter on the city. The Tory collapse in vote flattered them somewhat and id expect this to be a Labour held marginal (less than 5%) at a GE. On this sort of result, against this specific backdrop id say labour will struggle to retake the larger majoritues in the red wall on current boundaries like Bishop Auckland and Rother Valley
so far the psephologiy from this parliament, including last night as you describe and last months locals, fills us with little confidence the red wall is clearly coming home to Labour.
If anyone wants to turn up at next GE certain of change of government, not for a nervous night of close results in key places, they need to think again. The psephologiy isn’t supporting the Labour spin.
Agreed. Labour did not do as well last night as in the locals in May in Wakefield, there is no clamour for a Labour government. There IS clamour for Johnson to be gone. Now. In the South, however........
The independent candidate who came third in Wakefield is a conservative I think?
Yes a former councillor for the Tories
So, all in all, Labour didn't exactly hit the ball out the park in Wakefield did they?
They did enough to hold it as a marginal at a GE meaning they might get half the red wall losses back imo 'if nothing changes'
I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts
Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now
Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry
And if, in the process, the Tory core has to put up with some social liberalism that it finds distasteful, then tough. If it should come to pass, a heavy Conservative defeat at the next election that allows this to happen will be as much a monument to their greed as it will be to Johnson's self-absorption and venality.
Wokeness is not “social liberalism”, it is much more sinister than that
I entirely agree with you on the predatory pensioners. We need a government for the young
Unfortunately I don’t think Starmer’s Labour is it. They are as clueless - policy wise - as the Tories.
But then, looking at the headlines in today’s FT, with emergencies across the world from humble Sri Lanka to mighty America, with the EU warning of “terrible splits” in the bloc as Russia shuts off the gas, I wonder if any politician anywhere has even a vague idea how to handle what’s coming our way
Brace
I really hate the way particular groups are described in offensive ways - "feckless young", "predatory pensioners" etc. This sort of tribal culture war language will do nothing to repair society.
The current Tory party is exhausted and out of good ideas. Boris is a disgrace to his office and his government is degrading our democracy. His MPs should grow a spine, throw him out and start the process of rebuilding a Tory party that does not shame Britain. I doubt they will. But it is what they ought to do.if they don't the Tories will be out of power for a long time which will lead to the same problems with Labour. Parties that stay in power for too long become a menace.
We need policies for the hard-working of all ages, the young and those who are poor and just about managing. We need proper housebuilding, to do something about the grotesque interest rates on student loans and the absurd obstacles we have put in the way of those who try to export. We need proper investment in infrastructure in all parts of the country and we need to repair relations with our nearest neighbours.
We do not need more constitutional jiggery-pokery.
What we need above all is a government which explains clearly that times are going to be hard for the next few years as we deal with the consequences of Brexit, Covid and world instabilities so that all of us will have to tighten our belts but that this will need to be done fairly. No-one will be immune but we will try our damndest to make sure that those with the greatest wealth pay their fair share. For a start, NI on everyone who works, no matter what their age , rises in pensions should be no higher than what is offered to other public sector workers and council tax bands above the current highest levels to capture the increase in house values in recent years. I'd hugely increase the amount non-doms have to pay for their status as well and limit the amount rich people can give to charities and claim back from their tax as well.
Others will have other policies but they need to be presented as part of a narrative which explains that the next few years will be tough and that no-one will be exempt. Labour and the Lib Dems are still proposing to do something for the WASPI women, for instance - who have no legal case and are about as undeserving a group as you could find. This idea that you can throw sweeties at your favoured groups needs to be quashed.
We have to think hard about how we are going to earn our living and start doing it. For all of Labour's success so far I am not at all sure that there is much of a narrative from them on this. And if they don't develop one - with the policies to match and the steel to resist all the many claims made on them - they will end up being buffeted by events when in power.
The problem with this is that the pensioners are leeching from younger generations through rent and imposing huge pension rises on working age people, either via the state pension or RPI increases on final salary schemes that are paid for by current employees of companies. A tax on higher earning pensioners and clawbacks of the state pension would allow for taxes to be cut for working age people but Labour are simply too weak to pursue this policy.
Younger generations pointing out, fairly, that pensioners are predatory and thieving from younger generations to fund their retirements. Making it prohibitively expensive to own additional properties is the best way to solve this as it frees up millions of houses for purchase by young people who are currently priced out of the market by landlords and second home owners.
You want everyone to "get along" but while older generations are monopolising wealth and prosperity I see no reason for young people to be part of this grand bargain of "getting along" for the sake of it. It's up to older people to realise their selfishness is the cause of friction between the generations, they are leeching from their children and grandchildren yet want all of us to play nice because their parents made sacrifices while they made none.
I am an 'older person' who might well fall into your category of 'predatory and thieving' pensioner: In receipt of my FS pension (that I signed up to 40 years ago and stuck with throughout my working life), I got on the property ladder in my early 20s and am now living a comfortable retirement in my nice rent-free house with my good pension.
But here's the thing: WHAT WOULD YOU HAVE ME DO?
Unlike you I suspect, I have never voted for he Tories with their triple-lock nonsense and failure to extend NI to all income. Their failure to address the accumulation and protection of wealth through inheritance.
I can surely only continue to use my vote to bring about change.
So think about that before you get arsey and lump every one over 60 into your 'predatory thieving' category!
Do you own a BTL property if not the only impact for you would be - whatever approach is adopted to tax pensioners earning enough to be high rate tax (40%) - that assumes your total pension income is over £50,000 a year (which I doubt it is) and possibly the impact of switching from council tax to a tax based on the actual current value of your house.
I do not own a BTL.
Rolling out NI to all income would reduce my net income. But it's a fair thing to do, so I support it.
Similarly reform of CT or replacement by a wealth or property tax.
I support those things but @MaxPB has me a "predatory and thieving" pensioner - while he no doubt voted for this predatory and thieving government.
I have been a renter. My parents rented all their life. In fact while my father was dying, the flat was sold to an appalling landlord who so neglected it that it became riddled with dry rot and damp so badly that it was declared unfit for human habitation under the 1952 Housing Act. Imagine a recently widowed woman and her children having to live in such conditions. It was one reason I got into law - to help my mother. It was one reason why I volunteered at the North Kensington Law Centre - to help those with similar housing problems. Those were the days when you could get Legal Aid (something which the Tory government has cut drastically).
I know what it is to have awful landlords. I have also seen the sort of crummy flats the young have to rent in London, one reason Daughter left. So I really don't need a well off City worker able to buy expensive flats and houses in Hampstead and North London lecturing me about Britain's broken rental market. Gove's recent proposed reforms seem sensible. A decent rental market is needed as exists in other European countries, which provides good quality housing and some level of security, as well as much more housebuilding for property to buy.
I don't have the answers. But I am a bit fed up of being picked on by @MaxPB who is almost certainly a lot better off than any of my three children and one of those who should certainly be paying more tax to help those worse off than him.
Part of the reason I pick on you a but Cyclefree is because you give as good as you get and I do enjoy the discussion and you make me think about issues from a different perspective, don't take it personally.
The other part is that you are ultimately part of the establishment and most of your solutions protect that establishment.
I'd smash it all up if I had the opportunity. The civil service, the landlords, the rentier class, all of it.
"Part of the establishment" - LoL! You're the one supporting the Tories. Not me. You are the establishment even if you pretend you're not. Your instinctive reaction when I said that you needed to pay more tax to help poor people in the town near where I live was to say "No I pay enough". The voice of the establishment everywhere.
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
But do you take personal risk with your money in these investments or do you just invest the banks money in a heads I win tails you lose scenario
It's investor money (we don't proprietary invest), and don't blame me for the changing of bonus rules that made my salary very high and performance pay much lower. Both TSE and I pointed out this would be the result of the idiotic bonus cap the EU introduced.
And the tails for me is losing my job, so the idea that I win either way is frankly ridiculous. You seem to be a very bitter and jealous person, did you, by any chance, not cut it in financial services and now hate everyone who did make it?
Yes. If you fuck up, you lose your job, potentially your career
Unlike about 90% of the people in the public sector…
You worked in the public sector in recent years? These days there is a reorganization almost permanently, with folk having to apply for their old jobs - or the new equivalent - every now and then; many jobs privatised; and so on.
East African Indians. Part of the reason I take the view of the establishment I do is because I have an outsider's perspective on it.
You haven't answered my question on whether you take personal risks with your money I assume you don't therefore and are just risking the banks money in a heads I win tails you lose scenario correct
Why are you being so aggressive to Max?
It's not been aggressive to ask if he risks his own money He earns the big bucks so if he's that good he would be comfortable risking his own money if not ,,
And ti be fairhe was quite aggressive towards pensioners even if some of the ire is deserved
I think it's generally agreed by most people on this site that rich pensioners need to pay more and that there is a limit on the percentage of total income that you can expect working people to contribute.
Elsewhere (and partly it's local because being up north many people own their outright by the time they hit their early 50's) I'm seeing more and more people switching to part time work because they don't need that much cash to live on.
I predicted the Tories would lose both seats but Boris would stay. Sadly - for the Conservative Party - this appears to be accurate on all counts
Boris is clearly steering his Party to a catastrophic defeat. They need to oust him now
Recall the Golden Bough. The sacrifice of the king propitiates the angry gods, and thus the tribe is saved. It is time to propitiate; because the gods - AKA the voters - are VERY angry
And if, in the process, the Tory core has to put up with some social liberalism that it finds distasteful, then tough. If it should come to pass, a heavy Conservative defeat at the next election that allows this to happen will be as much a monument to their greed as it will be to Johnson's self-absorption and venality.
Wokeness is not “social liberalism”, it is much more sinister than that
I entirely agree with you on the predatory pensioners. We need a government for the young
Unfortunately I don’t think Starmer’s Labour is it. They are as clueless - policy wise - as the Tories.
But then, looking at the headlines in today’s FT, with emergencies across the world from humble Sri Lanka to mighty America, with the EU warning of “terrible splits” in the bloc as Russia shuts off the gas, I wonder if any politician anywhere has even a vague idea how to handle what’s coming our way
Brace
I really hate the way particular groups are described in offensive ways - "feckless young", "predatory pensioners" etc. This sort of tribal culture war language will do nothing to repair society.
The current Tory party is exhausted and out of good ideas. Boris is a disgrace to his office and his government is degrading our democracy. His MPs should grow a spine, throw him out and start the process of rebuilding a Tory party that does not shame Britain. I doubt they will. But it is what they ought to do.if they don't the Tories will be out of power for a long time which will lead to the same problems with Labour. Parties that stay in power for too long become a menace.
We need policies for the hard-working of all ages, the young and those who are poor and just about managing. We need proper housebuilding, to do something about the grotesque interest rates on student loans and the absurd obstacles we have put in the way of those who try to export. We need proper investment in infrastructure in all parts of the country and we need to repair relations with our nearest neighbours.
We do not need more constitutional jiggery-pokery.
What we need above all is a government which explains clearly that times are going to be hard for the next few years as we deal with the consequences of Brexit, Covid and world instabilities so that all of us will have to tighten our belts but that this will need to be done fairly. No-one will be immune but we will try our damndest to make sure that those with the greatest wealth pay their fair share. For a start, NI on everyone who works, no matter what their age , rises in pensions should be no higher than what is offered to other public sector workers and council tax bands above the current highest levels to capture the increase in house values in recent years. I'd hugely increase the amount non-doms have to pay for their status as well and limit the amount rich people can give to charities and claim back from their tax as well.
Others will have other policies but they need to be presented as part of a narrative which explains that the next few years will be tough and that no-one will be exempt. Labour and the Lib Dems are still proposing to do something for the WASPI women, for instance - who have no legal case and are about as undeserving a group as you could find. This idea that you can throw sweeties at your favoured groups needs to be quashed.
We have to think hard about how we are going to earn our living and start doing it. For all of Labour's success so far I am not at all sure that there is much of a narrative from them on this. And if they don't develop one - with the policies to match and the steel to resist all the many claims made on them - they will end up being buffeted by events when in power.
The problem with this is that the pensioners are leeching from younger generations through rent and imposing huge pension rises on working age people, either via the state pension or RPI increases on final salary schemes that are paid for by current employees of companies. A tax on higher earning pensioners and clawbacks of the state pension would allow for taxes to be cut for working age people but Labour are simply too weak to pursue this policy.
Younger generations pointing out, fairly, that pensioners are predatory and thieving from younger generations to fund their retirements. Making it prohibitively expensive to own additional properties is the best way to solve this as it frees up millions of houses for purchase by young people who are currently priced out of the market by landlords and second home owners.
You want everyone to "get along" but while older generations are monopolising wealth and prosperity I see no reason for young people to be part of this grand bargain of "getting along" for the sake of it. It's up to older people to realise their selfishness is the cause of friction between the generations, they are leeching from their children and grandchildren yet want all of us to play nice because their parents made sacrifices while they made none.
I am not a pensioner and am very concerned about the future for the young. I don't think rude language helps, that's all. There are poor pensioners and rich young. You are one of the latter. I know quite a few poor pensioners in Millom who have not been stealing anything from anyone and have little in the way of assets. People like you should be taxed more to help people like them.
I have proposed both below the line and above it a number of proposals which would shift the balance away from the wealthy to those who work, especially the young.
We are I think broadly in agreement that too much policy has been aimed at only one group of favoured voters which is bad policy and bad for the economy and society. But I find it grimly amusing that it is you which has been a cheerleader for the Tory party and its policies which have largely been responsible for this for the last 12 years.
Rather than castigating me perhaps you might reflect on whether your support for that party has been in part responsible for the policies you now say you dislike.
Firstly, I already pay significant tax, at last count more than 45% of my gross income was spent on income and other taxes last year. The top 1% of earners in this country contribute ever more in tax, it was 27% two years ago. The idea that high earners don't contribute enough is frankly ridiculous. Let's start with NI on pension income, state pension clawback for higher rate pensioners before we start increasing the burden, yet again, on working people. Let's increase tax on unproductive and unearned income like dividends, rent and some forms of capital before attacking working people (either via income taxes or corporate taxes that will drag on pay growth). Lets bloody put a super-tax on cruises if we need to claw back money from wealthy old people.
What we also don't do us tax accumulated lifetime wealth during retirement and we should. We have trillions of non-primary housing assets locked up by older people who don't spend it and it isn't properly taxed. Even if we looked at how discretionary trusts are taxed that would be a start. If taxes go up on older wealthy people then that's taxes which don't have to go up on working age people, it also means older people will self fund their generation's health and care needs rather than putting the burden onto working age people.
Labour needs a radical approach on the generational wealth gap and to "speak truth to power" call out the older generation as selfish, make them look at themselves in the mirror and ask how they think their 11% pension rises will be funded, are they impoverishing their children and grandchildren in the process. Ask them if they are as selfish as everyone believes or are they willing to make the same sacrifices as everyone else is being asked? I think a bout of honesty for older people is necessary but Starmer isn't a strong enough leader to do it. Neither is Boris, of course.
That's a very long way of saying "more tax needs to be paid but not by me".
True, but the fact remains that those in “ordinary” working PAYE jobs are paying much, much more tax as a portion of their income that almost any other segment of the tax paying classes.
Eg, Wealthy pensioners pay only income tax & make no NI contributions despite being those responsible for the heaviest burden on the NHS. Wealthly pensioners could certainly be paying more.
Any of the groups of society who manage to camoflage profit as capital gains (BTL types, private equity groups etc etc) are paying half the tax on their income that the PAYE classes are.
MaxPB is not alone in wondering where all this massive rental income flow is going & whether any of it is being taxed.
Full interview on WATO later today. ...Former Leader of Conservative Party Michael Howard has told BBC Radio 4's World at One that Boris Johnson should resign.
"The party, and more importantly the country, would be better off under new leadership."
"Members of the Cabinet should very carefully consider their positions," he told the programme.
On speculation about how the Conservatives could remove the PM - after Johnson won a no confidence vote on 6 June - Howard said "it may be necessary for the executive of the 1922 committee to meet and to decide to change the rules so another leadership [election] could take place"...
OGH is right on this. The next election will see massive anit Tory tactical voting which will benefit Labour in the Red Wall and the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall. A pincer movement that will lock the Tories out of power, maybe for a generation. The Lib Dems should demand electoral reform as a condition of supporting a minority Labour government, and then people can vote for their first choice again, confident it won't result in their last choice getting elected.
OGH is wrong about Wakefield. There was no tactical vote surge there. Tories lost 17%, Labour gained 8%. Blue wall, yes, big problems. Red wall, much less so. Labour are still toxic
Do we know anything about the Independent in Wakefield who got 7% (above David Herdson)?
Basically a Tory. Former tory councillor. Which detracts a bit from the winning margin
Oh wow, so two former Tory councillors 3rd and 4th.
Yes. Labour didn't quite get back to 2017 levels on a low turnout against an outgoing party who foisted a child sexual assaulter on the city. The Tory collapse in vote flattered them somewhat and id expect this to be a Labour held marginal (less than 5%) at a GE. On this sort of result, against this specific backdrop id say labour will struggle to retake the larger majoritues in the red wall on current boundaries like Bishop Auckland and Rother Valley
so far the psephologiy from this parliament, including last night as you describe and last months locals, fills us with little confidence the red wall is clearly coming home to Labour.
If anyone wants to turn up at next GE certain of change of government, not for a nervous night of close results in key places, they need to think again. The psephologiy isn’t supporting the Labour spin.
Agreed. Labour did not do as well last night as in the locals in May in Wakefield, there is no clamour for a Labour government. There IS clamour for Johnson to be gone. Now. In the South, however........
The independent candidate who came third in Wakefield is a conservative I think?
Yes a former councillor for the Tories
So, all in all, Labour didn't exactly hit the ball out the park in Wakefield did they?
They did enough to hold it as a marginal at a GE meaning they might get half the red wall losses back imo 'if nothing changes'
That would be enough to see the back of Tory rule mind.
East African Indians. Part of the reason I take the view of the establishment I do is because I have an outsider's perspective on it.
Sorry lol I meant your company/employer.
Oh lol, no Asian.
I think this is a big issue, the lack of British ultimate parents in the UK. We're an exporter - ultimately if/when we produce dividends they head straight to Uncle Sam though.
Tbf, the investors are global with a big chunk of that being UK money. But yes, I agree with you that too much of UK industry isn't supported by domestic UK investment. It's a sad fact that UK investors are very risk averse and would rather invest in FTSE350 companies that yield 3-4% a year in dividends and low capital growth than in AIM or high risk funds like the one I help manage that pours money into startups.
If we simply aggregate the votes cast in the two seats last night, the Conservatives still came out on top with 24,500+ votes, followed by the LDs and Lab. The Conservatives were the only party not to loose a deposit, the LDs and Lab lost one deposit each, and every other party standing lost all their deposits.
Yet the Conservatives came out of it with zero seats, while the LDs and Lab got one each. What's clear is that the LDs and Lab are now potentially concentrating their votes very effectively, because voters are prepared to pile in behind either the LDs or Lab depending on which is judged capable of winning against the Conservatives. The Greens were squeezed in both seats compared to their national poll ratings.
In the light of that, it seems highly simplistic to continue to interpret national opinion polls based solely on the net Lab lead over the Conservatives, and to calculate seats gained based on uniform swing. That greatly understates the number of Conservative seats at risk. Just as important to me is the combined Lab/LD/Green vote, and how far that exceeds the Con vote.
So taking the two polls which showed Labour leads of 2% and 11% over virtually the same polling period, it's important to note also that the combined Lab/LD/Green vote exceeded the Con vote by 20% and 26% respectively.
I don't think there is evidence that Green votes are as tactically efficient as the Lab-LD vote, which rarely forms the top two candidates in any constituency. On the contrary, Green votes seem to pile up in Labour safe seats and rural Tory-LD contests.
I think you need to be careful in making assumptions about what the second choice of the voters for the candidates in minor places would have been.
For Labour, it's easiest - MOST would go for the anti-Tory choice and stuck with Labour either because they didn't appreciate the situation or couldn't bring themselves to vote tactically. It's not universal - a Brexit-y Labour voter might well prefer the Tories to Lib Dems say - but those are really exceptions that prove the rule.
It isn't as clear for Lib Dems. At the moment, it's probably true that the mood is anti-Tory on balance. But non-trivial numbers would, if forced to choose, prefer a Tory MP and Tory Government to Labour.
With the Greens, it seems obvious from the party's national platform that it's to the left of either the Lib Dems or Labour. But that really doesn't mean it's true of their General Election voters, perhaps particularly in those seats where they are standing a paper candidate picking up say 2-4%. Those people overwhelmingly know they aren't electing a Green MP, and it's a generalised anti-politics as usual vote. That brings together a real grab-bag of eccentrics. No offence to the Green Party, and it's not their fault that this is true, but an appreciable number of their votes in a four cornered contest with a paper Green are from people who are rather disappointed that the BNP and UKIP haven't bothered to put someone up.
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
But do you take personal risk with your money in these investments or do you just invest the banks money in a heads I win tails you lose scenario
It's investor money (we don't proprietary invest), and don't blame me for the changing of bonus rules that made my salary very high and performance pay much lower. Both TSE and I pointed out this would be the result of the idiotic bonus cap the EU introduced.
And the tails for me is losing my job, so the idea that I win either way is frankly ridiculous. You seem to be a very bitter and jealous person, did you, by any chance, not cut it in financial services and now hate everyone who did make it?
Yes. If you fuck up, you lose your job, potentially your career
Unlike about 90% of the people in the public sector…
Indeed, the downside to working in an utterly ruthless sector is that it is utterly ruthless.
Same for me. Couple of dodgy dildo designs in a row, zero sales… that’s it. Out you go. Sorry, next. No sentimentality
Which is as it should be
Then I look in bewilderment at elite (or not so elite) jobs in the public sector, where people can preside over catastrophic failure which damages lives (eg northern councillors during the grooming scandal) and no one apologises let alone resigns. And they move on to new jobs for equally insane salaries
You get a bit of that in the private sector, but it’s much rarer
East African Indians. Part of the reason I take the view of the establishment I do is because I have an outsider's perspective on it.
Sorry lol I meant your company/employer.
Oh lol, no Asian.
I think this is a big issue, the lack of British ultimate parents in the UK. We're an exporter - ultimately if/when we produce dividends they head straight to Uncle Sam though.
Tbf, the investors are global with a big chunk of that being UK money. But yes, I agree with you that too much of UK industry isn't supported by domestic UK investment. It's a sad fact that UK investors are very risk averse and would rather invest in FTSE350 companies that yield 3-4% a year in dividends and low capital growth than in AIM or high risk funds like the one I help manage that pours money into startups.
Pussies, shoulda gone with Woodford Patient Capital
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
The exchequer is minting it from Max's salary through NI (Both of them) and income tax. A bigger question though is where do investment bank profits arise from. Do they truly generate wealth for the country, or is it an extraction that would otherwise have been earnt by other businesses. Despite our fs sector, our gdp per cap is absolubtely moribund compared to elsewhere (Particularly the USA if you look over the last decade or so). Why is that ?
It's a great question. There's a positive impact on annual fiscal cashflow but more fundamentally my view is our bloated City remunerates itself in excess of real value added and is thus a net extractor not contributor. I spent much of my working life there, so it's not a nice thought, but I think it's true. The high earners who work in the City, for reasons of mental peace and self-worth, need to create a narrative of "creating wealth through talent, therefore it's merited" - and I've been known to roll that out - but this is essentially a delusion.
East African Indians. Part of the reason I take the view of the establishment I do is because I have an outsider's perspective on it.
You haven't answered my question on whether you take personal risks with your money I assume you don't therefore and are just risking the banks money in a heads I win tails you lose scenario correct
Why are you being so aggressive to Max?
It's not been aggressive to ask if he risks his own money He earns the big bucks so if he's that good he would be comfortable risking his own money if not ,,
And ti be fairhe was quite aggressive towards pensioners even if some of the ire is deserved
I think it's generally agreed by most people on this site that rich pensioners need to pay more and that there is a limit on the percentage of total income that you can expect working people to contribute.
Elsewhere (and partly it's local because being up north many people own their outright by the time they hit their early 50's) I'm seeing more and more people switching to part time work because they don't need that much cash to live on.
Yes. Which begs the question.What is it about the country that so many are prepared to take a hit on their incomes to cut down hours or quit? Why do so many hate what they do?
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
Investing money in UK based tech startups, literally job creation in the UKs fastest growing sector.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
But do you take personal risk with your money in these investments or do you just invest the banks money in a heads I win tails you lose scenario
It's investor money (we don't proprietary invest), and don't blame me for the changing of bonus rules that made my salary very high and performance pay much lower. Both TSE and I pointed out this would be the result of the idiotic bonus cap the EU introduced.
And the tails for me is losing my job, so the idea that I win either way is frankly ridiculous. You seem to be a very bitter and jealous person, did you, by any chance, not cut it in financial services and now hate everyone who did make it?
Yes. If you fuck up, you lose your job, potentially your career
Unlike about 90% of the people in the public sector…
That's the point mate take stupid risks make big bonuses then lose your job a few years down the line but set for life
I sold all my assets just before the covid crash mate because it was my own money and ipay attention to it However I was late getting back in for the same reason If I was in your position just gambling the banks money with no personal downside risk I would have just held through and come out looking like a hero
What do you contribute to the country mate I take it you work in financial services so are likely vastly overpaid yourself given your abilities, Maybe you take too much out of the country Whilst the old are a problem a lot of our problems stem from the massive bailout of the banks in 2008
The exchequer is minting it from Max's salary through NI (Both of them) and income tax. A bigger question though is where do investment bank profits arise from. Do they truly generate wealth for the country, or is it an extraction that would otherwise have been earnt by other businesses. Despite our fs sector, our gdp per cap is absolubtely moribund compared to elsewhere (Particularly the USA if you look over the last decade or so). Why is that ?
Yes that's the point Financial services subtract value from the rest of the economy If we taxed drugs dealers profits they would go around boasting they are the biggest contributors to the exchequer Does that make drugs dealing good and moral
As a centre for finance, the UK has been taxing the entire world in return for financial services of various kinds. Don’t knock it - it‘s kept the country afloat.
Wakefield result looks OK-to-disappointing to me. Not much sign of a desire to vote Labour to punish the government. Labour's own vote fell from 18k to 13k so not even much enthusiasm from their own supporters and I would have expected turnout to be a bit higher if there really was a strong desire to 'Get Rid Of Them' as there was in the mid-90s. Even in Mid Staffs in 1990 Labour did a lot better than this, and still lost the next election.
Of course LD win was stonking but just tells us Johnson is unpopular among traditional Tory voters but doesn't mean the LDs are about to romp home in the SW unless the Tories implode.
If I was Johnson I would think I can still win against Starmer on this basis, and not worry about a handful of LD losses around London.
I still think the Tories will change leader, probably after the local elections next year as that is the latest point they can do so and give time for a successor to bed in. The problem for Labour is that almost any change in PM will be an improvement on Johnson, but a change of Labour leader is probably the opposite. Starmer doesn't enthuse, but most of the touted replacements - to me - look no better, and most seem lightweight, which he isn't.
Based on this I think the Tories will win the next election on a reduced majority of up to 40 (50-60% chance) although falling just short May-style is quite possible (10-20%). I think a Labour majority is no more than a nominal chance, but probably about a 25% chance of a Labour led minority if the Tories replace Johnson with a right wing head-banger. I haven't put any money on the next election yet as it's still too far away but I'm thinking it's time to back Conservatives for a majority or at least most seats.
Comments
2. Fail to get a majority
3. Go into coalition with Lib Dems; take the credit for their policies, let them take the stick for yours
4. Annihiliate Lib Dems at following election, win majority
5. Get brought down by the Europe issue
Sounds plausible to me
LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 32% (-1)
LDEM: 13% (-)
GRN: 5% (-)
via @RedfieldWilton, 22 Jun
9 point lead
As CHB repeats, Cameron put on nearly 100 seats with “time for change, current lot have fecked it up”.
I agree, the government should have stood behind depositors and let RBS, HBOS and Northern Rock go to the wall. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling couldn't let both major Scottish banks go bankrupt so they bailed them out. Blame them not me.
While I'm sure MaxPB is well paid there are other sectors of the economy (IT for one) who pay similar rates for such skills - financial services isn't anything special nowadays.
If anyone wants to turn up at next GE certain of change of government, not for a nervous night of close results in key places, they need to think again. The psephologiy isn’t supporting the Labour spin.
Oh and bootcamps - for every decent graduate with a computer science degree there are x bad ones who have been in appropriately taught for working in the real world)..
Was absent for a couple of weeks due to baby number three being born. Wee little boy (actually not so wee, almost a pound more than his two siblings at birth!)
So, all the joy, exhaustion, frustration and joy again entailed in that. But mostly happiness. It's hard to look at a newborn getting cuddled by his older brother and sister and not feel happy.
Hope all good with you, CHB.
(By the way, @MaxPB - hope all good with you and your little'un. If you're lucky, things may be settling down a little bit by now?)
There's a more important point here and a worrying one: The likes of Max and Barty need to take on board the fact that there is nothing *specifically* wrong with racism, it is just an instance of the general rule that you don't demonise groups of society on the basis of accidents of birth. Boomers are greedy bastards responsible for the state of the housing market sounds no different to me from Usurious jews have corrupted the financial system. This is a deadly serious point, not to be confused with half hearted claims that calling people gammons is tantamount to racism
The odd thing is, the usual response to racism is: go and talk to some people of colour, they might turn out to be quite like you. Yo'd have thought the boomer demonisers had pretty good access to some examples of the genre anyway.
We could start with why a qualified teaching assistant is a minimum wage job?
And who would be willing to teach coding at those rates of pay?
Yeah. I imagine a lot of Syrians and Ukrainians fancy a bit of Boring British Stability, right now
And to you too Max, I am glad you are staying in the UK and I am also thrilled for you and your wife
I quite like the startup scene having come from a very corporate background in jobs prior
Labour did not do as well last night as in the locals in May in Wakefield, there is no clamour for a Labour government. There IS clamour for Johnson to be gone. Now.
In the South, however........
Do you ever look at what someone is posting and saying? In what mind my posting LLG 59 means I have my head up Boris Johnson’s arse?
If you don’t like the psephology I am posting here, the decent thing is to challenge the psephology not try to trash the poster. Quite a few of you have let yourselves down over the last 24hrs hours in that regard.
Mine's outgrowing her 0-1 month stuff but too small for 0-3. She's got long legs for her centile...; Well her mum is 6'1.
You're of course now an experienced pro with the nappies
I have to admit, I laughed
@RedfieldWilton
·
Westminster Voting Intention (22 June):
Labour 41% (+1)
Conservative 32% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 13% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 19 June"
Remember. This is minimum wage during term time only.
ComRes looking like not much of an outlier, 2 pointer however is. Is this the start of a widening of the polls now Johnson is looking dead?
Will we see a 15 point lead by the end of this year as I have suspected?
More…
And the tails for me is losing my job, so the idea that I win either way is frankly ridiculous. You seem to be a very bitter and jealous person, did you, by any chance, not cut it in financial services and now hate everyone who did make it?
Labour victory in 2024 and Johnson loses his seat
Unlike about 90% of the people in the public sector…
And ti be fairhe was quite aggressive towards pensioners even if some of the ire is deserved
Keir Starmer Approval Rating (22 June):
Approve: 31% (+2)
Disapprove: 32% (+1)
Net: -1% (+1)
Changes +/- 15 June
If only Keir would just quit
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/by-election-fallout-first-cabinet-minister-resigns
Does British society need change ? Sure.
But "smashing it all up" ? I hope that's just rhetorical. If not, all it represents is a guarantee of damage without any known benefit in return
But yes you are right.
It was by no means a disaster. It actually points an amazing ding dong general election night full of close battles and huge political betting. But for those of us who want a change to a lab Lib government and the “lost their way” Tory’s out of government, it was not the, as you put it, hit out the park result we were hoping for from a beautifully teed up by election ☹️
And with momentum of a win, he's going up.
15 point lead, I am predicting it now.
Reread this - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/05/01/thinking-the-unthinkable-hows-this-going-to-be-paid-for/ and tell me if the proposals in it support the establishment or not.
Apart from Jo Swinson of course.
Elsewhere (and partly it's local because being up north many people own their outright by the time they hit their early 50's) I'm seeing more and more people switching to part time work because they don't need that much cash to live on.
Eg, Wealthy pensioners pay only income tax & make no NI contributions despite being those responsible for the heaviest burden on the NHS. Wealthly pensioners could certainly be paying more.
Any of the groups of society who manage to camoflage profit as capital gains (BTL types, private equity groups etc etc) are paying half the tax on their income that the PAYE classes are.
MaxPB is not alone in wondering where all this massive rental income flow is going & whether any of it is being taxed.
And so on...
...Former Leader of Conservative Party Michael Howard has told BBC Radio 4's World at One that Boris Johnson should resign.
"The party, and more importantly the country, would be better off under new leadership."
"Members of the Cabinet should very carefully consider their positions," he told the programme.
On speculation about how the Conservatives could remove the PM - after Johnson won a no confidence vote on 6 June - Howard said "it may be necessary for the executive of the 1922 committee to meet and to decide to change the rules so another leadership [election] could take place"...
Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (+4)
LAB: 31% (-2)
LDM: 8% (-2)
GRN: 5% (+2)
BXP: 1% (-1)
Via
@Survation
, 27-28 Apr.
Changes w/ 30-31 Jan❗.
Two years ago, now tell me what went wrong
For Labour, it's easiest - MOST would go for the anti-Tory choice and stuck with Labour either because they didn't appreciate the situation or couldn't bring themselves to vote tactically. It's not universal - a Brexit-y Labour voter might well prefer the Tories to Lib Dems say - but those are really exceptions that prove the rule.
It isn't as clear for Lib Dems. At the moment, it's probably true that the mood is anti-Tory on balance. But non-trivial numbers would, if forced to choose, prefer a Tory MP and Tory Government to Labour.
With the Greens, it seems obvious from the party's national platform that it's to the left of either the Lib Dems or Labour. But that really doesn't mean it's true of their General Election voters, perhaps particularly in those seats where they are standing a paper candidate picking up say 2-4%. Those people overwhelmingly know they aren't electing a Green MP, and it's a generalised anti-politics as usual vote. That brings together a real grab-bag of eccentrics. No offence to the Green Party, and it's not their fault that this is true, but an appreciable number of their votes in a four cornered contest with a paper Green are from people who are rather disappointed that the BNP and UKIP haven't bothered to put someone up.
The Prime Minister’s attempts to drive a wedge between voters and his political opponents seems to be having the opposite effect to what he intended.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1540214056954613762
Which is as it should be
Then I look in bewilderment at elite (or not so elite) jobs in the public sector, where people can preside over catastrophic failure which damages lives (eg northern councillors during the grooming scandal) and no one apologises let alone resigns. And they move on to new jobs for equally insane salaries
You get a bit of that in the private sector, but it’s much rarer
Which begs the question.What is it about the country that so many are prepared to take a hit on their incomes to cut down hours or quit?
Why do so many hate what they do?
I sold all my assets just before the covid crash mate because it was my own money and ipay attention to it However I was late getting back in for the same reason If I was in your position just gambling the banks money with no personal downside risk I would have just held through and come out looking like a hero
Of course LD win was stonking but just tells us Johnson is unpopular among traditional Tory voters but doesn't mean the LDs are about to romp home in the SW unless the Tories implode.
If I was Johnson I would think I can still win against Starmer on this basis, and not worry about a handful of LD losses around London.
I still think the Tories will change leader, probably after the local elections next year as that is the latest point they can do so and give time for a successor to bed in. The problem for Labour is that almost any change in PM will be an improvement on Johnson, but a change of Labour leader is probably the opposite. Starmer doesn't enthuse, but most of the touted replacements - to me - look no better, and most seem lightweight, which he isn't.
Based on this I think the Tories will win the next election on a reduced majority of up to 40 (50-60% chance) although falling just short May-style is quite possible (10-20%). I think a Labour majority is no more than a nominal chance, but probably about a 25% chance of a Labour led minority if the Tories replace Johnson with a right wing head-banger. I haven't put any money on the next election yet as it's still too far away but I'm thinking it's time to back Conservatives for a majority or at least most seats.