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Savanta poll: By 58% to 35% the rail strikes are “justified” – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Morning all. The part that seems to have really riled people in my parts is the closing of ticket offices.

    I'm not sure Boris Johnson will mind. He's hellbent on wargaming.

    Closing ticket offices? Welcome to the majority of the country, where there are no ticket offices.
    There are 1000 ticket offices in England and 1 in 8 tickets is bought over the counter, as well as many other services like railcards.

    The online ticketing system is also riven with faults, including frequently more expensive tickets unless you really know your onions about circumventing it.

    Beeching also justified his cuts. The knock-on was the death of many rural communities and industries.
    I hate to break the news to you, but most of Beeching's cuts were justified. For every Waverley route that should not have been shut, there was a Wisbech and Upwell Tramway. Or a GNR Derby line. Or the Buxton - Ashbourne - Uttoxeter route. (*)

    Lines that are still loved, but were economic basket-cases.

    The world changes. Ticket offices prove useful to me on occasion, but their closure will not affect me or my travel that much.

    (*) Note: the much-loved Matlock to Buxton line - part of the Midland's route to Manchester - was not mentioned in the Beeching Cuts. But they closed it anyway because of internal railway politics... And thanks to Labour's Barbara Castle...
    Pull up the tailgate, Jack. I'm all right.
    That's a rather poor response to my point, which is that millions of people already have to manage without ticket offices for their journeys.

    And I cannot speak for other people (obvs.), but for me, losing them would not be a major issue.
    Ticket offices will go the same way as high street banking - they will be reduced to a service offering advice on complex issues. 99% of what they *did* is online now.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Private (and occupational) pensions?

    Boomers have already emptied the pot, so those that follow do so on vastly inferior terms.
    In my case it was my company pension and I remained in serps which was a very sensible decision
    IMO income tax rates should be higher for people over a certain age, say 65.

    0/22.5/42.5/47.5 instead of 0/20/40/45. What is your view on that?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    Energy and fuel prices driving it, that makes everything more expensive. Makes anything manufactured, stored or transported more expensive.

    I may have suggested a solution to this previously.
    There are quick solutions to it all but they're politically unpalatable. So sky high fuel it is.
    What’s so politically unpalatable about dropping 62p off the price of a litre?

    It costs £2bn a month, but would also reduce inflation for the government by a substantial amount.

    Not only that, it would screw the Opposition, who would be torn between helping with the cost of living, and pleasing the metropolitan greenie activists who think expensive petrol is good thing.
    I don't think people fully grasp the damage that sky high fuel prices are doing. Yes, there is the immediate effect on you. How much it costs you to fill up. How little disposable cash that leaves you with which makes everything a bit tighter to budget.

    But wider? Literally everything consumes diesel. The food you buy from the supermarket. That Go Pro I have just ordered. The tat you are buying off Ebay. The letter through your door with the latest scary bill.

    The price of everything will go up and do so significantly - and that is on top of any material price inflation already suffered on the actual product / the effects of the pound being so weak.

    And the money you don't have to go out and spend? That's someone's job that's now at risk...

    So yes @Sandpit I agree. This government has shown itself to be both extremely creative and fabulously flexible when it comes to policies. Slash / remove duty and VAT from fuel and it will have a transformative effect. Not only do they take the sting out of inflation with a single hit, they also complete their journey to big state Keynesianism.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    On booking offices, the only time I use them is to buy a ticket that the machine won't sell me. We can use our Network Railcards (1/3 off journeys in the old Network Southeast area) from 10am. But I can't buy a ticket from a machine until 10am, and so I can't catch the 10am to London. But the booking office will sell me a ticket at 09:55.

    The machines are also a pain in the arse if you want to buy two tickets - one from A to B, and another from B to C, because doing so is cheaper than buying a ticket from A to C directly.
    The machines are NOT the issue there. The fare structure is. I thought some years ago there was a pledge that such anomalies would be removed, but I don't think it has happened yet. I think partly this is due to peak/off peak regimes, so start during peak hours, pay a huge amount for the A to C trip, but do it A to B (peak) and then B to C (off peak, same journey) can give a reduced price. But it shouldn't.
    Use brfares.com to have a play with ticket options. Some of the rail operators (I'm looking at you CrossCountry use stupid prices, so if you can find a fare set by another operator (eg TransPennine Express) that covers the same route / same train it will be cheaper and/or less restrictive.
    Thats useful, but I just don't think two journeys on the same train at the same time should have different prices.

    But then I also can't stand the model where hotel rooms can be different prices depending on who you book with. I understand the model, I just hate it.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    On booking offices, the only time I use them is to buy a ticket that the machine won't sell me. We can use our Network Railcards (1/3 off journeys in the old Network Southeast area) from 10am. But I can't buy a ticket from a machine until 10am, and so I can't catch the 10am to London. But the booking office will sell me a ticket at 09:55.

    The machines are also a pain in the arse if you want to buy two tickets - one from A to B, and another from B to C, because doing so is cheaper than buying a ticket from A to C directly.
    The Trainline App does that easily.

    The real problem with split ticketing is the absurdity of a pricing system that creates it in the first place.
    Oh indeed. When I was last with my parents, I got the train from Corby to St Pancras - and was told to buy one ticket from Corby to Bedford, and another from Bedford to London, to save £10 on a £50 ticket. That’s a good sign of a screwed-up system.
    Tickety split has got me a ticket to Dumfries in Scotland and back for less than £15 on 9th July.

    Or should I say tickets (7 to be precise)
    Where do you live, Carlisle?! The booking fees alone ...
    Ticket is from Hazel Grove to Dumfries via Preston and Carlisle on the way up and Carlisle Wigan Manchester on the way back..

    I do have a railcard so full adult cost would de about £23 I think
    Interesting - I have to travel from Gatley to Dumfries with my two kids in August, so I'll look at this!

    PB - come to rubberneck the political brouhaha, stay for the travel advice.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    edited June 2022
    Stocky said:

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Private (and occupational) pensions?

    Boomers have already emptied the pot, so those that follow do so on vastly inferior terms.
    In my case it was my company pension and I remained in serps which was a very sensible decision
    IMO income tax rates should be higher for people over a certain age, say 65.

    0/22.5/42.5/47.5 instead of 0/20/40/45. What is your view on that?
    I think it has merit but politically it would be another poll tax
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Look, it is fairly simple. They have voted themselves to be the richest generation ever yet also to make their children and especially grandchildren poorer. That is selfish and extremely unusual in peacetime.

    Now I am sure most pensioners are not individually selfish in their voting, but collectively that is the effect of their votes and how it has been targeted by both main parties.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    Energy and fuel prices driving it, that makes everything more expensive. Makes anything manufactured, stored or transported more expensive.

    I may have suggested a solution to this previously.
    There are quick solutions to it all but they're politically unpalatable. So sky high fuel it is.
    What’s so politically unpalatable about dropping 62p off the price of a litre?

    It costs £2bn a month, but would also reduce inflation for the government by a substantial amount.

    Not only that, it would screw the Opposition, who would be torn between helping with the cost of living, and pleasing the metropolitan greenie activists who think expensive petrol is good thing.
    I think if this happens it would be a sign that an election is on the way.

    Secondly, ignore the hype, inflation is absolutely essential for highly indebted governments who have borrowed trillions and need to pay it back in monopoly money.

    The extraordinary thing is that so many highly sophisticated money people have lent so much to so many governments without insisting on the loans and the interest payments being inflation proofed. They, like the older, cautious retail savers of the UK from 2028 onwards already, are about to be shafted.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Stocky said:

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Private (and occupational) pensions?

    Boomers have already emptied the pot, so those that follow do so on vastly inferior terms.
    In my case it was my company pension and I remained in serps which was a very sensible decision
    IMO income tax rates should be higher for people over a certain age, say 65.

    0/22.5/42.5/47.5 instead of 0/20/40/45. What is your view on that?
    At the moment you have 0/33/43/48 for most workers (Not even getting onto te monstrosity that is employer NI...).
    For younger uni grads (Who can't really avoid going because of competitive advantage reasons within their cohort) it is 0/33/42/51/57 & then weirdly 48 if you earn enough...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Interesting, but as usual, gloomy, piece from AEP this morning on looming recession:

    "we are seeing is the fatal politicisation of monetary management at the world’s superpower central bank, with variants of the same story playing out in Britain and Europe."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/06/21/us-recession-central-banks-still-fighting-last-war/

    I thought this was interesting:

    "Simon Ward from Janus Henderson says the current rate of contraction of "real narrow money" in the G7 bloc has occurred just twice before over the last half century: in 1973 and 1979, both on the cusp of severe recessions."
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,525
    Stocky said:

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Private (and occupational) pensions?

    Boomers have already emptied the pot, so those that follow do so on vastly inferior terms.
    In my case it was my company pension and I remained in serps which was a very sensible decision
    IMO income tax rates should be higher for people over a certain age, say 65.

    0/22.5/42.5/47.5 instead of 0/20/40/45. What is your view on that?
    I'm against the triple lock, but I wouldn't go as far as proposing differential taxation against retired people. It would be amusing to see what it did to the Tory poll rating, though.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    Energy and fuel prices driving it, that makes everything more expensive. Makes anything manufactured, stored or transported more expensive.

    I may have suggested a solution to this previously.
    There are quick solutions to it all but they're politically unpalatable. So sky high fuel it is.
    What’s so politically unpalatable about dropping 62p off the price of a litre?

    It costs £2bn a month, but would also reduce inflation for the government by a substantial amount.

    Not only that, it would screw the Opposition, who would be torn between helping with the cost of living, and pleasing the metropolitan greenie activists who think expensive petrol is good thing.
    I don't think people fully grasp the damage that sky high fuel prices are doing. Yes, there is the immediate effect on you. How much it costs you to fill up. How little disposable cash that leaves you with which makes everything a bit tighter to budget.

    But wider? Literally everything consumes diesel. The food you buy from the supermarket. That Go Pro I have just ordered. The tat you are buying off Ebay. The letter through your door with the latest scary bill.

    The price of everything will go up and do so significantly - and that is on top of any material price inflation already suffered on the actual product / the effects of the pound being so weak.

    And the money you don't have to go out and spend? That's someone's job that's now at risk...

    So yes @Sandpit I agree. This government has shown itself to be both extremely creative and fabulously flexible when it comes to policies. Slash / remove duty and VAT from fuel and it will have a transformative effect. Not only do they take the sting out of inflation with a single hit, they also complete their journey to big state Keynesianism.
    The sensible thing to do with fuel is to change the taxation structure to a fixed amount. Because 75%+ of the fuel price is tax, this magnifies price swings. Sometimes the Treasury gets a windfall. Sometimes the revenue falls massively.

    Fix it at a value - some average from historical data. Yes, I know it is multiple taxes. It can still be done.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    On booking offices, the only time I use them is to buy a ticket that the machine won't sell me. We can use our Network Railcards (1/3 off journeys in the old Network Southeast area) from 10am. But I can't buy a ticket from a machine until 10am, and so I can't catch the 10am to London. But the booking office will sell me a ticket at 09:55.

    The machines are also a pain in the arse if you want to buy two tickets - one from A to B, and another from B to C, because doing so is cheaper than buying a ticket from A to C directly.
    The machines are NOT the issue there. The fare structure is. I thought some years ago there was a pledge that such anomalies would be removed, but I don't think it has happened yet. I think partly this is due to peak/off peak regimes, so start during peak hours, pay a huge amount for the A to C trip, but do it A to B (peak) and then B to C (off peak, same journey) can give a reduced price. But it shouldn't.
    Use brfares.com to have a play with ticket options. Some of the rail operators (I'm looking at you CrossCountry use stupid prices, so if you can find a fare set by another operator (eg TransPennine Express) that covers the same route / same train it will be cheaper and/or less restrictive.
    Thats useful, but I just don't think two journeys on the same train at the same time should have different prices.

    But then I also can't stand the model where hotel rooms can be different prices depending on who you book with. I understand the model, I just hate it.
    I entirely agree and think we need to go back to distance pricing for regular fares with the ability to set lower rate advance tickets on top. Instead, when you have regulated fares like an Anytime Return it can be cheaper to go longer on the same train than shorter, depending on competition and how they have priced different flows for different markets.

    Or better still when you get pirates like Great Western who employ staff to disallow valid tickets on the Paddington gateline. "Off Peak tickets are not valid on trips out from Paddington in the evening peak" they say. Despite the ticket from somewhere that isn't Paddington to somewhere on their route being perfectly valid due to different restrictions.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    BA is currently leasing European aircraft while it has British aircraft in storage, purely to get around post-Brexit visa rules for European airline crews.

    Just one example of the craziness of losing access to the EU labour market and free movement.

    https://twitter.com/crimlawuk/status/1538788155083706368
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Yep it's a disgrace and I am a beneficiary but don't agree with it.
    And the pensioners were overwhelmingly Brexiteers so if there was any justice they'd have their pensions wrenched from them
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited June 2022

    Interesting, but as usual, gloomy, piece from AEP this morning on looming recession:

    "we are seeing is the fatal politicisation of monetary management at the world’s superpower central bank, with variants of the same story playing out in Britain and Europe."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/06/21/us-recession-central-banks-still-fighting-last-war/

    I thought this was interesting:

    "Simon Ward from Janus Henderson says the current rate of contraction of "real narrow money" in the G7 bloc has occurred just twice before over the last half century: in 1973 and 1979, both on the cusp of severe recessions."

    AEP has managed to predict 25 of the last three recessions.

    He’s probably right this time though, but only on the stopped clock principle.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Stocky said:

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Private (and occupational) pensions?

    Boomers have already emptied the pot, so those that follow do so on vastly inferior terms.
    In my case it was my company pension and I remained in serps which was a very sensible decision
    IMO income tax rates should be higher for people over a certain age, say 65.

    0/22.5/42.5/47.5 instead of 0/20/40/45. What is your view on that?
    I think it has merit but politically it would be another poll tax
    Now NI starting points are higher than the State Pension it's very possible to argue that some level of NI should be charged on pension income.

    I suspect that would be the approach rather than a change in income tax rates.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Carnyx said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    They also voted for Brexit. And yet ... "The Resolution Foundation thinktank and academics from the London School of Economics said the average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than £470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with a remain vote in 2016." Of course, stuff the workers - the pensioners are OK.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/brexit-is-making-cost-of-living-crisis-worse-new-study-claims
    Yet inflation was low after Brexit, it is only the war in Ukraine and the limited energy supplies and excess demand post Covid that have really seen inflation rise.

    It was of course not just pensioners who voted for Brexit either, all voters over 47 did therefore including many still of working age. Plus pensioners who were graduates voted Remain while working under 35 non graduates voted Leave
  • Cut VAT to 5%.

    Scrap fuel duty.

    Cut student fee interest to 3%.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262

    Stocky said:

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Private (and occupational) pensions?

    Boomers have already emptied the pot, so those that follow do so on vastly inferior terms.
    In my case it was my company pension and I remained in serps which was a very sensible decision
    IMO income tax rates should be higher for people over a certain age, say 65.

    0/22.5/42.5/47.5 instead of 0/20/40/45. What is your view on that?
    I think it has merit but politically it would be another poll tax
    Join NI and Income tax. The number of pensioners actually rich enough to pay much income tax is, of course, quite small.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,525
    darkage said:

    If The Trainlne still charge you a commission on all tickets sold, don't be ripped off. Simply use someone like LNER to buy the same tickets cheaper.

    Personally I've found the commission on thetrainline is an acceptable price to pay for not having to mess around with individual train operating company websites. They seem to be ridden with errors, ive had lots of failed bookings, lost logins etc, disappearing tickets etc.
    Yes indeed, though I use the National Rail site. The simplicity of having a single company is quite a strong reason for nationalisation IMO - even if it was a single private company like the lottery. All these fiddly local franchises perpetually on the point of going bust after their next munificent dividends to shareholders are just irritating.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Look, it is fairly simple. They have voted themselves to be the richest generation ever yet also to make their children and especially grandchildren poorer. That is selfish and extremely unusual in peacetime.

    Now I am sure most pensioners are not individually selfish in their voting, but collectively that is the effect of their votes and how it has been targeted by both main parties.
    One of the aspects of this which seems to almost never be mentioned and to my mind is incredible, is how many people are going to have to rely pretty much for most of their pension on the State Pension in, say thirty years time.

    Seems millions are saving the bare minimum into the auto enrolment schemes that Steve Webb and co introduced under Cameron. Not enough contribution to give a reasonable pension. They will have to fall back on the State.

    The pressure to do more on State Pension is likely to rise not fall in next decade or three imho.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Scott_xP said:

    BA is currently leasing European aircraft while it has British aircraft in storage, purely to get around post-Brexit visa rules for European airline crews.

    Just one example of the craziness of losing access to the EU labour market and free movement.

    https://twitter.com/crimlawuk/status/1538788155083706368

    Blame Boris
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Cut VAT to 5%.

    Scrap fuel duty.

    Cut student fee interest to 3%.

    Cutting VAT to 5% costs £100bn.

    Fuel duty absolutely, and student fee interest should be linked to the base rate rather than inflation.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262
    Sandpit said:

    Interesting, but as usual, gloomy, piece from AEP this morning on looming recession:

    "we are seeing is the fatal politicisation of monetary management at the world’s superpower central bank, with variants of the same story playing out in Britain and Europe."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/06/21/us-recession-central-banks-still-fighting-last-war/

    I thought this was interesting:

    "Simon Ward from Janus Henderson says the current rate of contraction of "real narrow money" in the G7 bloc has occurred just twice before over the last half century: in 1973 and 1979, both on the cusp of severe recessions."

    AEP has managed to predict 25 of the last three recessions.

    He’s probably right this time though, but only on the stopped clock principle.
    That's a gross distortion of AEP's work.

    He has managed to predict 12,987 of the last 3 recessions.

    And 4,2356 of the last 1 collapses of the financial system.

    And 326 of 0 breakups of the Euro.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Look, it is fairly simple. They have voted themselves to be the richest generation ever yet also to make their children and especially grandchildren poorer. That is selfish and extremely unusual in peacetime.

    Now I am sure most pensioners are not individually selfish in their voting, but collectively that is the effect of their votes and how it has been targeted by both main parties.
    One of the aspects of this which seems to almost never be mentioned and to my mind is incredible, is how many people are going to have to rely pretty much for most of their pension on the State Pension in, say thirty years time.

    Seems millions are saving the bare minimum into the auto enrolment schemes that Steve Webb and co introduced under Cameron. Not enough contribution to give a reasonable pension. They will have to fall back on the State.

    The pressure to do more on State Pension is likely to rise not fall in next decade or three imho.

    I would expect your average 20/30 something will have to work til early seventies.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Stocky said:

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Private (and occupational) pensions?

    Boomers have already emptied the pot, so those that follow do so on vastly inferior terms.
    In my case it was my company pension and I remained in serps which was a very sensible decision
    IMO income tax rates should be higher for people over a certain age, say 65.

    0/22.5/42.5/47.5 instead of 0/20/40/45. What is your view on that?
    I think it has merit but politically it would be another poll tax
    Join NI and Income tax. The number of pensioners actually rich enough to pay much income tax is, of course, quite small.
    No, NI should be reserved for its original purpose of funding the state pension, unemployment insurance and healthcare
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,896
    edited June 2022

    Interesting, but as usual, gloomy, piece from AEP this morning on looming recession:

    "we are seeing is the fatal politicisation of monetary management at the world’s superpower central bank, with variants of the same story playing out in Britain and Europe."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/06/21/us-recession-central-banks-still-fighting-last-war/

    I thought this was interesting:

    "Simon Ward from Janus Henderson says the current rate of contraction of "real narrow money" in the G7 bloc has occurred just twice before over the last half century: in 1973 and 1979, both on the cusp of severe recessions."

    Another reason for not listening to faux monetarists wanting to jack up interest rates. The actual monetarists are warning against a contracting money supply.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Interesting, but as usual, gloomy, piece from AEP this morning on looming recession:

    "we are seeing is the fatal politicisation of monetary management at the world’s superpower central bank, with variants of the same story playing out in Britain and Europe."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/06/21/us-recession-central-banks-still-fighting-last-war/

    I thought this was interesting:

    "Simon Ward from Janus Henderson says the current rate of contraction of "real narrow money" in the G7 bloc has occurred just twice before over the last half century: in 1973 and 1979, both on the cusp of severe recessions."

    Restatment of the return to the '70s theme.

    To lose one decade after 2008 might be regarded as unfortunate; to lose two...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Look, it is fairly simple. They have voted themselves to be the richest generation ever yet also to make their children and especially grandchildren poorer. That is selfish and extremely unusual in peacetime.

    Now I am sure most pensioners are not individually selfish in their voting, but collectively that is the effect of their votes and how it has been targeted by both main parties.
    One of the aspects of this which seems to almost never be mentioned and to my mind is incredible, is how many people are going to have to rely pretty much for most of their pension on the State Pension in, say thirty years time.

    Seems millions are saving the bare minimum into the auto enrolment schemes that Steve Webb and co introduced under Cameron. Not enough contribution to give a reasonable pension. They will have to fall back on the State.

    The pressure to do more on State Pension is likely to rise not fall in next decade or three imho.

    Yes - the 1997 changes to pensions, in particular, will filter through over time into much more of a burden on the State.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    Stocky said:

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Private (and occupational) pensions?

    Boomers have already emptied the pot, so those that follow do so on vastly inferior terms.
    In my case it was my company pension and I remained in serps which was a very sensible decision
    IMO income tax rates should be higher for people over a certain age, say 65.

    0/22.5/42.5/47.5 instead of 0/20/40/45. What is your view on that?
    I'm against the triple lock, but I wouldn't go as far as proposing differential taxation against retired people. It would be amusing to see what it did to the Tory poll rating, though.
    We already have differential taxation for retired people with NI and Income Tax. Stocky's measure is still in favour of retired people, just less so.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    They also voted for Brexit. And yet ... "The Resolution Foundation thinktank and academics from the London School of Economics said the average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than £470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with a remain vote in 2016." Of course, stuff the workers - the pensioners are OK.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/brexit-is-making-cost-of-living-crisis-worse-new-study-claims
    Yet inflation was low after Brexit, it is only the war in Ukraine and the limited energy supplies and excess demand post Covid that have really seen inflation rise.

    It was of course not just pensioners who voted for Brexit either, all voters over 47 did therefore including many still of working age. Plus pensioners who were graduates voted Remain while working under 35 non graduates voted Leave
    Oh dear, oh dear. More sweeping statements and more selective polling, and this time without any spurious citations.
  • HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    They also voted for Brexit. And yet ... "The Resolution Foundation thinktank and academics from the London School of Economics said the average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than £470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with a remain vote in 2016." Of course, stuff the workers - the pensioners are OK.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/brexit-is-making-cost-of-living-crisis-worse-new-study-claims
    Yet inflation was low after Brexit, it is only the war in Ukraine and the limited energy supplies and excess demand post Covid that have really seen inflation rise.

    It was of course not just pensioners who voted for Brexit either, all voters over 47 did therefore including many still of working age. Plus pensioners who were graduates voted Remain while working under 35 non graduates voted Leave
    I don't think all voters over 47 voted for Brexit?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    The horror the horror. How Donald Trump and his goons persecuted individuals just trying to do their job in his attempt to steal the 2020 election.

    I have a really hard time understanding why this man is being allowed to run again. Lock him up ffs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-61889593
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited June 2022

    darkage said:

    If The Trainlne still charge you a commission on all tickets sold, don't be ripped off. Simply use someone like LNER to buy the same tickets cheaper.

    Personally I've found the commission on thetrainline is an acceptable price to pay for not having to mess around with individual train operating company websites. They seem to be ridden with errors, ive had lots of failed bookings, lost logins etc, disappearing tickets etc.
    Yes indeed, though I use the National Rail site. The simplicity of having a single company is quite a strong reason for nationalisation IMO - even if it was a single private company like the lottery. All these fiddly local franchises perpetually on the point of going bust after their next munificent dividends to shareholders are just irritating.
    Everyone I've spoken to recommends the LNER site rather than the National Rail one.

    Based on the trainline code it doesn't have the trainlines booking fee..

    Some operators may still have own website only fares but I can't think of any off the top of my head - Transpennine used to but LNER seem to show the same fares now.

    You then have the Ticket split operators who split the journey into multiple trains to save a few quid- they rarely give much of a saving though and don't allow what would be my preferred approach - of build in a 1/2 hour delay so I can have a walk round Newark / Doncaster / Peterborough.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    kinabalu said:

    The horror the horror. How Donald Trump and his goons persecuted individuals just trying to do their job in his attempt to steal the 2020 election.

    I have a really hard time understanding why this man is being allowed to run again. Lock him up ffs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-61889593

    I agree, but the following extract is puzzling;

    "In their lawsuits, they alleged 10,315 dead people [voted]," Mr Raffensperger said, but a thorough review found a total of only four.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    kinabalu said:

    The horror the horror. How Donald Trump and his goons persecuted individuals just trying to do their job in his attempt to steal the 2020 election.

    I have a really hard time understanding why this man is being allowed to run again. Lock him up ffs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-61889593

    There was about a one week window when he could have been impeached and the likes of McConnell would have gone along with it.

    The lesson from that and similarly with Boris is that to get rid of the narcissists you have to strike as soon as you can rather than wait for perfect timing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    Scott_xP said:

    BA is currently leasing European aircraft while it has British aircraft in storage, purely to get around post-Brexit visa rules for European airline crews.

    Just one example of the craziness of losing access to the EU labour market and free movement.

    https://twitter.com/crimlawuk/status/1538788155083706368

    Maybe you need a word with Starmer who is about to declare labour will not allow FOM again
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    They also voted for Brexit. And yet ... "The Resolution Foundation thinktank and academics from the London School of Economics said the average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than £470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with a remain vote in 2016." Of course, stuff the workers - the pensioners are OK.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/brexit-is-making-cost-of-living-crisis-worse-new-study-claims
    Yet inflation was low after Brexit, it is only the war in Ukraine and the limited energy supplies and excess demand post Covid that have really seen inflation rise.

    It was of course not just pensioners who voted for Brexit either, all voters over 47 did therefore including many still of working age. Plus pensioners who were graduates voted Remain while working under 35 non graduates voted Leave
    I don't think all voters over 47 voted for Brexit?
    The majority of all age groups over 47 did vote Leave in 2016
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,782
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    They also voted for Brexit. And yet ... "The Resolution Foundation thinktank and academics from the London School of Economics said the average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than £470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with a remain vote in 2016." Of course, stuff the workers - the pensioners are OK.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/brexit-is-making-cost-of-living-crisis-worse-new-study-claims
    Yet inflation was low after Brexit, it is only the war in Ukraine and the limited energy supplies and excess demand post Covid that have really seen inflation rise.

    It was of course not just pensioners who voted for Brexit either, all voters over 47 did therefore including many still of working age. Plus pensioners who were graduates voted Remain while working under 35 non graduates voted Leave
    Inflation rose to 3.4% at the end of 2017 because of the GBP devaluation that followed the Brexit vote, which drove up inflation for food and other imported goods. The introduction of new costs and trade restrictions under our new post Brexit trade regime has further pushed up core goods inflation to levels well above those on the Continent (7.2% in the UK versus 4.2% in the Euro Area).
    And the government wants workers to just suck this up while their pensioner client voters get protected? No fucking way.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Very good, and rather scary article on Russia's nuclear threat.

    What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?
    A look at the grim scenarios—and the U.S. playbook for each
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapon-us-response/661315/

    I recommend the whole thing - and note that, for all its faults, we are very lucky to have the Biden administration in charge at this point, as they are probably uniquely well prepared to respond rationally.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,782
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    They also voted for Brexit. And yet ... "The Resolution Foundation thinktank and academics from the London School of Economics said the average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than £470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with a remain vote in 2016." Of course, stuff the workers - the pensioners are OK.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/brexit-is-making-cost-of-living-crisis-worse-new-study-claims
    Yet inflation was low after Brexit, it is only the war in Ukraine and the limited energy supplies and excess demand post Covid that have really seen inflation rise.

    It was of course not just pensioners who voted for Brexit either, all voters over 47 did therefore including many still of working age. Plus pensioners who were graduates voted Remain while working under 35 non graduates voted Leave
    I don't think all voters over 47 voted for Brexit?
    The majority of all age groups over 47 did vote Leave in 2016
    But you said that all voters aged over 47 voted for Brexit. That is a lie.
  • darkage said:

    I found this table on state pension rises. If you look at it, the state pension has cumulatively risen by around 45% over 11 years. Whereas, as I understand it, public sector pay rises have been frozen at 0.5 - 1% for the whole time. What is explosive is the prospective April 2023 rise to the state pension, if it is CPI, it could be 10%.

    The government make things worse by just going on about how people must 'take the pain' etc. They have just themselves to blame. There was bound to be a eventual reckoning for such a divisive and unfair policy.

    State pension triple lock: rises since 2011
    Financial year State pension rise Based on
    2011/12 4.6% RPI
    2012/13 5.2% CPI
    2013/14 2.5% 2.5%
    2014/15 2.7% CPI
    2015/16 2.5% 2.5%
    2016/17 2.9% Earnings
    2017/18 2.5% 2.5%
    2018/19 3% CPI
    2019/20 2.6% Earnings
    2020/21 3.9% Earnings
    2021/22 2.5% 2.5%
    2022/23 3.1% CPI

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor/article/state-pension-increase/

    While that's true, it's worth seeing it in the wider context of the erosion in value of the state pension since Thatcher removed the link to earnings.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6f8531d6-ddfd-11e4-8d14-00144feab7de

    It would be interesting to see the FT chart updated with the latest figures.
    Of course today's pensioners were working in Thatcher's day, not pensioners. So if it was good enough for their parents to have the link broken, and not saved for, then why isn't it good enough for them?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited June 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    They also voted for Brexit. And yet ... "The Resolution Foundation thinktank and academics from the London School of Economics said the average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than £470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with a remain vote in 2016." Of course, stuff the workers - the pensioners are OK.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/brexit-is-making-cost-of-living-crisis-worse-new-study-claims
    Yet inflation was low after Brexit, it is only the war in Ukraine and the limited energy supplies and excess demand post Covid that have really seen inflation rise.

    It was of course not just pensioners who voted for Brexit either, all voters over 47 did therefore including many still of working age. Plus pensioners who were graduates voted Remain while working under 35 non graduates voted Leave
    Oh dear, oh dear. More sweeping statements and more selective polling, and this time without any spurious citations.
    70% of voters over 65 with a degree voted Remain in 2016. 67% of 18 to 34s with just GCSEs voted Leave in 2016.

    Age may be the key determinant of voting intention now and whether you vote Tory or Labour but education level not age was the key determinant of the Brexit vote

    https://anthonybmasters.medium.com/age-education-and-the-eu-referendum-ca7525be173d

    See also France where the EU hostile Le Pen and her party did better with under 35s than pensioners in the French elections this year
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    The horror the horror. How Donald Trump and his goons persecuted individuals just trying to do their job in his attempt to steal the 2020 election.

    I have a really hard time understanding why this man is being allowed to run again. Lock him up ffs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-61889593

    I agree, but the following extract is puzzling;

    "In their lawsuits, they alleged 10,315 dead people [voted]," Mr Raffensperger said, but a thorough review found a total of only four.
    A reverse Northern Ireland. Some were very irate, in NI, when an arrogant official ended the right of the dead to vote.....

    IIRC a number of US mail-in ballots were completed by people who died between posting them in and election day.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,782

    darkage said:

    I found this table on state pension rises. If you look at it, the state pension has cumulatively risen by around 45% over 11 years. Whereas, as I understand it, public sector pay rises have been frozen at 0.5 - 1% for the whole time. What is explosive is the prospective April 2023 rise to the state pension, if it is CPI, it could be 10%.

    The government make things worse by just going on about how people must 'take the pain' etc. They have just themselves to blame. There was bound to be a eventual reckoning for such a divisive and unfair policy.

    State pension triple lock: rises since 2011
    Financial year State pension rise Based on
    2011/12 4.6% RPI
    2012/13 5.2% CPI
    2013/14 2.5% 2.5%
    2014/15 2.7% CPI
    2015/16 2.5% 2.5%
    2016/17 2.9% Earnings
    2017/18 2.5% 2.5%
    2018/19 3% CPI
    2019/20 2.6% Earnings
    2020/21 3.9% Earnings
    2021/22 2.5% 2.5%
    2022/23 3.1% CPI

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor/article/state-pension-increase/

    While that's true, it's worth seeing it in the wider context of the erosion in value of the state pension since Thatcher removed the link to earnings.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6f8531d6-ddfd-11e4-8d14-00144feab7de

    It would be interesting to see the FT chart updated with the latest figures.
    Of course today's pensioners were working in Thatcher's day, not pensioners. So if it was good enough for their parents to have the link broken, and not saved for, then why isn't it good enough for them?
    Boomers eh? They screwed over their parents. Then they screwed over their kids. The most selfish generation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    They also voted for Brexit. And yet ... "The Resolution Foundation thinktank and academics from the London School of Economics said the average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than £470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with a remain vote in 2016." Of course, stuff the workers - the pensioners are OK.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/brexit-is-making-cost-of-living-crisis-worse-new-study-claims
    Yet inflation was low after Brexit, it is only the war in Ukraine and the limited energy supplies and excess demand post Covid that have really seen inflation rise.

    It was of course not just pensioners who voted for Brexit either, all voters over 47 did therefore including many still of working age. Plus pensioners who were graduates voted Remain while working under 35 non graduates voted Leave
    I don't think all voters over 47 voted for Brexit?
    I can personally confirm that. :smiley:

    And HYUFD is the definitive example of a majoritarian.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    Pulpstar said:

    Some relief on inflation coming ?

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/brn00?countrycode=uk

    Brent crude off 5%.

    I'm hoping the market has overshot on oil and we're due a correction.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    They also voted for Brexit. And yet ... "The Resolution Foundation thinktank and academics from the London School of Economics said the average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than £470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with a remain vote in 2016." Of course, stuff the workers - the pensioners are OK.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/brexit-is-making-cost-of-living-crisis-worse-new-study-claims
    Yet inflation was low after Brexit, it is only the war in Ukraine and the limited energy supplies and excess demand post Covid that have really seen inflation rise.

    It was of course not just pensioners who voted for Brexit either, all voters over 47 did therefore including many still of working age. Plus pensioners who were graduates voted Remain while working under 35 non graduates voted Leave
    I don't think all voters over 47 voted for Brexit?
    The majority of all age groups over 47 did vote Leave in 2016
    And how many have changed their minds ?
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/987347/brexit-opinion-poll/
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    They also voted for Brexit. And yet ... "The Resolution Foundation thinktank and academics from the London School of Economics said the average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than £470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with a remain vote in 2016." Of course, stuff the workers - the pensioners are OK.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/brexit-is-making-cost-of-living-crisis-worse-new-study-claims
    Yet inflation was low after Brexit, it is only the war in Ukraine and the limited energy supplies and excess demand post Covid that have really seen inflation rise.

    It was of course not just pensioners who voted for Brexit either, all voters over 47 did therefore including many still of working age. Plus pensioners who were graduates voted Remain while working under 35 non graduates voted Leave
    I don't think all voters over 47 voted for Brexit?
    The majority of all age groups over 47 did vote Leave in 2016
    I don't see why HYUFDs words here cannot be interpreted in their intended meaning rather than trying to imply as above. It won't take long for a more misleading quote or out of context quote to appear for those who like to challenge him!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    edited June 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    They also voted for Brexit. And yet ... "The Resolution Foundation thinktank and academics from the London School of Economics said the average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than £470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with a remain vote in 2016." Of course, stuff the workers - the pensioners are OK.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/brexit-is-making-cost-of-living-crisis-worse-new-study-claims
    Yet inflation was low after Brexit, it is only the war in Ukraine and the limited energy supplies and excess demand post Covid that have really seen inflation rise.

    It was of course not just pensioners who voted for Brexit either, all voters over 47 did therefore including many still of working age. Plus pensioners who were graduates voted Remain while working under 35 non graduates voted Leave
    I don't think all voters over 47 voted for Brexit?
    The majority of all age groups over 47 did vote Leave in 2016
    But you said that all voters aged over 47 voted for Brexit. That is a lie.
    I voted remain but support brexit following the vote, but also would support re-joining the single market with FOM

    Bit of a mix to be honest, but I do not support re-joining and expect this is probably where the majority view is at present
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,446
    Carnyx said:

    What really annoyed me about the closures is the short-sightedness of British Rail in selling off the land for redevelopment and to shed their legal liability for it, thus making future reopenings of many routes nigh impossible, in stark contrast to the policy in other countries, like France or Spain.

    Heads should roll for that.

    But the Conservativews of the time demanded that such useless land be disposed of, state monolith, guided busways were so much superior, and all that. (Partly because some of them had shares in motorway and car industry companies.)

    There have also been a lot of disposals in recent years AIUI.

    Not disagreeing though with the basic premise.
    I'm not so partisan as I'm unable to criticise the behaviour of Conservative governments over the past 60-70 years, where justified.

    In fact, it's essential: bad policy is bad policy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    darkage said:

    I found this table on state pension rises. If you look at it, the state pension has cumulatively risen by around 45% over 11 years. Whereas, as I understand it, public sector pay rises have been frozen at 0.5 - 1% for the whole time. What is explosive is the prospective April 2023 rise to the state pension, if it is CPI, it could be 10%.

    The government make things worse by just going on about how people must 'take the pain' etc. They have just themselves to blame. There was bound to be a eventual reckoning for such a divisive and unfair policy.

    State pension triple lock: rises since 2011
    Financial year State pension rise Based on
    2011/12 4.6% RPI
    2012/13 5.2% CPI
    2013/14 2.5% 2.5%
    2014/15 2.7% CPI
    2015/16 2.5% 2.5%
    2016/17 2.9% Earnings
    2017/18 2.5% 2.5%
    2018/19 3% CPI
    2019/20 2.6% Earnings
    2020/21 3.9% Earnings
    2021/22 2.5% 2.5%
    2022/23 3.1% CPI

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor/article/state-pension-increase/

    While that's true, it's worth seeing it in the wider context of the erosion in value of the state pension since Thatcher removed the link to earnings.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6f8531d6-ddfd-11e4-8d14-00144feab7de

    It would be interesting to see the FT chart updated with the latest figures.
    Of course today's pensioners were working in Thatcher's day, not pensioners. So if it was good enough for their parents to have the link broken, and not saved for, then why isn't it good enough for them?
    Boomers eh? They screwed over their parents. Then they screwed over their kids. The most selfish generation.
    What rubbish, thanks to boomers their children and grandchildren will inherit more than any generation before them.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Sandpit said:

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Look, it is fairly simple. They have voted themselves to be the richest generation ever yet also to make their children and especially grandchildren poorer. That is selfish and extremely unusual in peacetime.

    Now I am sure most pensioners are not individually selfish in their voting, but collectively that is the effect of their votes and how it has been targeted by both main parties.
    One of the aspects of this which seems to almost never be mentioned and to my mind is incredible, is how many people are going to have to rely pretty much for most of their pension on the State Pension in, say thirty years time.

    Seems millions are saving the bare minimum into the auto enrolment schemes that Steve Webb and co introduced under Cameron. Not enough contribution to give a reasonable pension. They will have to fall back on the State.

    The pressure to do more on State Pension is likely to rise not fall in next decade or three imho.

    Yes - the 1997 changes to pensions, in particular, will filter through over time into much more of a burden on the State.
    Is that when the dividend system changed?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262
    Nigelb said:

    Very good, and rather scary article on Russia's nuclear threat.

    What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?
    A look at the grim scenarios—and the U.S. playbook for each
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapon-us-response/661315/

    I recommend the whole thing - and note that, for all its faults, we are very lucky to have the Biden administration in charge at this point, as they are probably uniquely well prepared to respond rationally.

    I take comfort in the fact that tritium is $30,000 a gram. Each US nuclear weapon has 3 - 5 grams in it. So, $90,000 to $150,000 in small gas cartridges (probably the size of those laughing gas capsules you see littering the streets).

    In Russia, they will all have been stolen by now. Without them, every Russian nuclear weapon will have a yield of a Davy Crockett.

    Better yet, if the tritium has been replaced with either of the obvious fakes - hydrogen or helium - they will act as a neutron absorbing reaction poison. And probably prevent any yield at all.....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    DavidL said:

    Interesting, but as usual, gloomy, piece from AEP this morning on looming recession:

    "we are seeing is the fatal politicisation of monetary management at the world’s superpower central bank, with variants of the same story playing out in Britain and Europe."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/06/21/us-recession-central-banks-still-fighting-last-war/

    I thought this was interesting:

    "Simon Ward from Janus Henderson says the current rate of contraction of "real narrow money" in the G7 bloc has occurred just twice before over the last half century: in 1973 and 1979, both on the cusp of severe recessions."

    Another reason for not listening to faux monetarists wanting to jack up interest rates. The actual monetarists are warning against a contracting money supply.
    The last time inflation was at 9.1% base rates were at 13%. Now they are 1.25%. I would suggest that there is a lot of room for some middle course between the 2.

    Long term base rates at deeply negative rates has driven asset inflation and has distrorted the allocation of profits in our society from the young and those starting their careers to those near the end of them or retired. I do not think this is a good thing although I am getting into the latter category myself.
    Yeah, rates should have gone up years ago, but the spineless ***** at the BoE didn't want to do anything to hurt house prices.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,446

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    Blair/Labour were in office for 13 years from 1997-2010
    This period of Conservative government will comfortably exceed that but it doesn't feel it, still less the Thatcher-Major period of 18 years.

    At no time has it felt secure and transformatory.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,823

    Pulpstar said:

    Some relief on inflation coming ?

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/brn00?countrycode=uk

    Brent crude off 5%.

    I'm hoping the market has overshot on oil and we're due a correction.
    I think that there are a number of hints that inflation may be very close to peaking but the risk is that it remains at this elevated level, or somewhere near it, for longer than the BoE is currently forecasting.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Empirically, the largest change in attitudes to Brexit is on the part of those who didn't vote at the time.
    They seriously regret not turning out to defeat the measure.
    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/10434631211035202
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited June 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    They also voted for Brexit. And yet ... "The Resolution Foundation thinktank and academics from the London School of Economics said the average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than £470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with a remain vote in 2016." Of course, stuff the workers - the pensioners are OK.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/brexit-is-making-cost-of-living-crisis-worse-new-study-claims
    Yet inflation was low after Brexit, it is only the war in Ukraine and the limited energy supplies and excess demand post Covid that have really seen inflation rise.

    It was of course not just pensioners who voted for Brexit either, all voters over 47 did therefore including many still of working age. Plus pensioners who were graduates voted Remain while working under 35 non graduates voted Leave
    Inflation rose to 3.4% at the end of 2017 because of the GBP devaluation that followed the Brexit vote, which drove up inflation for food and other imported goods. The introduction of new costs and trade restrictions under our new post Brexit trade regime has further pushed up core goods inflation to levels well above those on the Continent (7.2% in the UK versus 4.2% in the Euro Area).
    And the government wants workers to just suck this up while their pensioner client voters get protected? No fucking way.
    EU inflation is now just 0.9% less than the UK average. It is the Russia and Ukraine war and failure to expand energy supplies to meet demand post lockdown with the focus on net zero that has had the biggest impact on UK inflation not Brexit

    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1539227743925043201?s=20&t=PqOrJqTq0rODKdB55yJpWQ

  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    edited June 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Very good, and rather scary article on Russia's nuclear threat.

    What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?
    A look at the grim scenarios—and the U.S. playbook for each
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapon-us-response/661315/

    I recommend the whole thing - and note that, for all its faults, we are very lucky to have the Biden administration in charge at this point, as they are probably uniquely well prepared to respond rationally.

    In the event that it comes to nuclear war, or the threat of it, we need a President in power who is prepared to be somewhat irrational and press the button in retaliation.

    Biden is about the worst possible person to have in charge, except as that comedy ad said, he was acceptable under the circumstances. His predecessor wouldn't press the button, we all know that including Putin, because Trump would have been on Putin's side.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Sandpit said:

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Look, it is fairly simple. They have voted themselves to be the richest generation ever yet also to make their children and especially grandchildren poorer. That is selfish and extremely unusual in peacetime.

    Now I am sure most pensioners are not individually selfish in their voting, but collectively that is the effect of their votes and how it has been targeted by both main parties.
    One of the aspects of this which seems to almost never be mentioned and to my mind is incredible, is how many people are going to have to rely pretty much for most of their pension on the State Pension in, say thirty years time.

    Seems millions are saving the bare minimum into the auto enrolment schemes that Steve Webb and co introduced under Cameron. Not enough contribution to give a reasonable pension. They will have to fall back on the State.

    The pressure to do more on State Pension is likely to rise not fall in next decade or three imho.

    Yes - the 1997 changes to pensions, in particular, will filter through over time into much more of a burden on the State.
    I think the changes, including consistent real rises in the state pension, were needed back then because pensioners were one of the poorest groups. Political opinion, especially amongst pensioners, just have not caught up with the realities of the changing landscapes since then. Now there are other groups struggling who get ignored because the default is help pensioners, and they vote.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,782
    HYUFD said:

    darkage said:

    I found this table on state pension rises. If you look at it, the state pension has cumulatively risen by around 45% over 11 years. Whereas, as I understand it, public sector pay rises have been frozen at 0.5 - 1% for the whole time. What is explosive is the prospective April 2023 rise to the state pension, if it is CPI, it could be 10%.

    The government make things worse by just going on about how people must 'take the pain' etc. They have just themselves to blame. There was bound to be a eventual reckoning for such a divisive and unfair policy.

    State pension triple lock: rises since 2011
    Financial year State pension rise Based on
    2011/12 4.6% RPI
    2012/13 5.2% CPI
    2013/14 2.5% 2.5%
    2014/15 2.7% CPI
    2015/16 2.5% 2.5%
    2016/17 2.9% Earnings
    2017/18 2.5% 2.5%
    2018/19 3% CPI
    2019/20 2.6% Earnings
    2020/21 3.9% Earnings
    2021/22 2.5% 2.5%
    2022/23 3.1% CPI

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor/article/state-pension-increase/

    While that's true, it's worth seeing it in the wider context of the erosion in value of the state pension since Thatcher removed the link to earnings.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6f8531d6-ddfd-11e4-8d14-00144feab7de

    It would be interesting to see the FT chart updated with the latest figures.
    Of course today's pensioners were working in Thatcher's day, not pensioners. So if it was good enough for their parents to have the link broken, and not saved for, then why isn't it good enough for them?
    Boomers eh? They screwed over their parents. Then they screwed over their kids. The most selfish generation.
    What rubbish, thanks to boomers their children and grandchildren will inherit more than any generation before them.

    You going to apologise for saying that all voters aged over 47 voted for Brexit, which is a self evident untruth?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sandpit said:

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Look, it is fairly simple. They have voted themselves to be the richest generation ever yet also to make their children and especially grandchildren poorer. That is selfish and extremely unusual in peacetime.

    Now I am sure most pensioners are not individually selfish in their voting, but collectively that is the effect of their votes and how it has been targeted by both main parties.
    One of the aspects of this which seems to almost never be mentioned and to my mind is incredible, is how many people are going to have to rely pretty much for most of their pension on the State Pension in, say thirty years time.

    Seems millions are saving the bare minimum into the auto enrolment schemes that Steve Webb and co introduced under Cameron. Not enough contribution to give a reasonable pension. They will have to fall back on the State.

    The pressure to do more on State Pension is likely to rise not fall in next decade or three imho.

    Yes - the 1997 changes to pensions, in particular, will filter through over time into much more of a burden on the State.
    Is that when the dividend system changed?
    Yes, Brown’s first budget as Chancellor.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    They also voted for Brexit. And yet ... "The Resolution Foundation thinktank and academics from the London School of Economics said the average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than £470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with a remain vote in 2016." Of course, stuff the workers - the pensioners are OK.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/brexit-is-making-cost-of-living-crisis-worse-new-study-claims
    Yet inflation was low after Brexit, it is only the war in Ukraine and the limited energy supplies and excess demand post Covid that have really seen inflation rise.

    It was of course not just pensioners who voted for Brexit either, all voters over 47 did therefore including many still of working age. Plus pensioners who were graduates voted Remain while working under 35 non graduates voted Leave
    Oh dear, oh dear. More sweeping statements and more selective polling, and this time without any spurious citations.
    70% of voters over 65 with a degree voted Remain in 2016. 67% of 18 to 34s with just GCSEs voted Leave in 2016.

    Age may be the key determinant of voting intention now and whether you vote Tory or Labour but education level not age was the key determinant of the Brexit vote

    https://anthonybmasters.medium.com/age-education-and-the-eu-referendum-ca7525be173d

    See also France where the EU hostile Le Pen and her party did better with under 35s than pensioners in the French elections this year
    How do you account then for my remain vote, when I left grammar school and held several jobs before opening my own business without any further education other than the education of life
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    36m
    Part of Keir Starmer's problem is that expectations within Labour have changed. When he was first elected people thought Boris was unbeatable, and he had to be Labour's Kinnock. Many MP's now think Boris is there for the taking with the right leader. (Correctly).

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,823
    HYUFD said:

    darkage said:

    I found this table on state pension rises. If you look at it, the state pension has cumulatively risen by around 45% over 11 years. Whereas, as I understand it, public sector pay rises have been frozen at 0.5 - 1% for the whole time. What is explosive is the prospective April 2023 rise to the state pension, if it is CPI, it could be 10%.

    The government make things worse by just going on about how people must 'take the pain' etc. They have just themselves to blame. There was bound to be a eventual reckoning for such a divisive and unfair policy.

    State pension triple lock: rises since 2011
    Financial year State pension rise Based on
    2011/12 4.6% RPI
    2012/13 5.2% CPI
    2013/14 2.5% 2.5%
    2014/15 2.7% CPI
    2015/16 2.5% 2.5%
    2016/17 2.9% Earnings
    2017/18 2.5% 2.5%
    2018/19 3% CPI
    2019/20 2.6% Earnings
    2020/21 3.9% Earnings
    2021/22 2.5% 2.5%
    2022/23 3.1% CPI

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor/article/state-pension-increase/

    While that's true, it's worth seeing it in the wider context of the erosion in value of the state pension since Thatcher removed the link to earnings.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6f8531d6-ddfd-11e4-8d14-00144feab7de

    It would be interesting to see the FT chart updated with the latest figures.
    Of course today's pensioners were working in Thatcher's day, not pensioners. So if it was good enough for their parents to have the link broken, and not saved for, then why isn't it good enough for them?
    Boomers eh? They screwed over their parents. Then they screwed over their kids. The most selfish generation.
    What rubbish, thanks to boomers their children and grandchildren will inherit more than any generation before them.

    So you basically agree that they stole all the wealth?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    Very good, and rather scary article on Russia's nuclear threat.

    What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?
    A look at the grim scenarios—and the U.S. playbook for each
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapon-us-response/661315/

    I recommend the whole thing - and note that, for all its faults, we are very lucky to have the Biden administration in charge at this point, as they are probably uniquely well prepared to respond rationally.

    I take comfort in the fact that tritium is $30,000 a gram. Each US nuclear weapon has 3 - 5 grams in it. So, $90,000 to $150,000 in small gas cartridges (probably the size of those laughing gas capsules you see littering the streets).

    In Russia, they will all have been stolen by now. Without them, every Russian nuclear weapon will have a yield of a Davy Crockett.

    Better yet, if the tritium has been replaced with either of the obvious fakes - hydrogen or helium - they will act as a neutron absorbing reaction poison. And probably prevent any yield at all.....
    it is the very low yield (and quite recently developed) Russian nukes which most worry US planners, as they are the most likely to be used in Ukraine.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    The horror the horror. How Donald Trump and his goons persecuted individuals just trying to do their job in his attempt to steal the 2020 election.

    I have a really hard time understanding why this man is being allowed to run again. Lock him up ffs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-61889593

    I agree, but the following extract is puzzling;

    "In their lawsuits, they alleged 10,315 dead people [voted]," Mr Raffensperger said, but a thorough review found a total of only four.
    You'd be looking for zero, wouldn't you, but I guess there's always a tiny bit of it going on?

    Certainly the dead shouldn't vote. I'm clear on that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Look, it is fairly simple. They have voted themselves to be the richest generation ever yet also to make their children and especially grandchildren poorer. That is selfish and extremely unusual in peacetime.

    Now I am sure most pensioners are not individually selfish in their voting, but collectively that is the effect of their votes and how it has been targeted by both main parties.
    One of the aspects of this which seems to almost never be mentioned and to my mind is incredible, is how many people are going to have to rely pretty much for most of their pension on the State Pension in, say thirty years time.

    Seems millions are saving the bare minimum into the auto enrolment schemes that Steve Webb and co introduced under Cameron. Not enough contribution to give a reasonable pension. They will have to fall back on the State.

    The pressure to do more on State Pension is likely to rise not fall in next decade or three imho.

    Yes - the 1997 changes to pensions, in particular, will filter through over time into much more of a burden on the State.
    Is that when the dividend system changed?
    Yes, Brown’s first budget as Chancellor.
    Which arguably finished off final salary schemes. An important point.

    But as they are now basically long go the issue today is that millions are being allowed to contribute far too little via auto enrolment into NEST or whatever it is called and have nothing else.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,446

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Morning all. The part that seems to have really riled people in my parts is the closing of ticket offices.

    I'm not sure Boris Johnson will mind. He's hellbent on wargaming.

    Closing ticket offices? Welcome to the majority of the country, where there are no ticket offices.
    There are 1000 ticket offices in England and 1 in 8 tickets is bought over the counter, as well as many other services like railcards.

    The online ticketing system is also riven with faults, including frequently more expensive tickets unless you really know your onions about circumventing it.

    Beeching also justified his cuts. The knock-on was the death of many rural communities and industries.
    I hate to break the news to you, but most of Beeching's cuts were justified. For every Waverley route that should not have been shut, there was a Wisbech and Upwell Tramway. Or a GNR Derby line. Or the Buxton - Ashbourne - Uttoxeter route. (*)

    Lines that are still loved, but were economic basket-cases.

    The world changes. Ticket offices prove useful to me on occasion, but their closure will not affect me or my travel that much.

    (*) Note: the much-loved Matlock to Buxton line - part of the Midland's route to Manchester - was not mentioned in the Beeching Cuts. But they closed it anyway because of internal railway politics... And thanks to Labour's Barbara Castle...
    Probably about 2/3rd were justified. He definitely overreached, as the reopenings in decades since have shown.

    And he was entirely unrepentant and wanted to go even further too - as late as the 1980s he was lamenting he couldn't close the line from Newcastle upon Tyne to Edinburgh on the basis it 'duplicated' the west coast main line through Carlisle and it'd only inconvenience Berwick upon Tweed.
    I'd put it at much higher than two-thirds. At least 90% IMV.

    The problem with the 'reopenings' argument is that a) closures of lines not in Beeching continued into the early 1980s, and b) the few lines being reopened now did not have to be kept open for five decades at great cost.

    I like the railways. They're a pleasant way to travel, and a useful form of travel for millions of people. They also have a romance. But reopening arguments are hard to make for the vast majority of Beeching's closures (let alone those closed before), even with the increased populations in various areas and the doubling in rail travel over the last three decades.

    Take Cambridge to Oxford - EWR. The section reopened so far was an 'existing' line. The bit being worked on now from Bicester to Bedford was a mothballed route (the work is essentially a brand-new line on the old route).

    But they are planning to ignore the old route between Bedford and Cambridge, and instead taking a very different route that may take it past my village (yay!). The old route via Sandy is problematic to reopen, and the major population centres are now elsewhere.

    In fact, as well (or instead of) reopenings, perhaps we should be looking at where the population centres are in the modern world and planning brand-new routes to them. And after the problems with the misguided bus here in Cambridgeshire, trains or trams look like good options.
    The section from Bedford to Cambridge is effectively greenfield because the old route was totally kiboshed by redevelopment.

    There are a number of secondary main lines and commuter branch lines that I wouldn't have recommended for closure under the Beeching era, and that acted as feeders to the wider network.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Pulpstar said:

    Some relief on inflation coming ?

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/brn00?countrycode=uk

    Brent crude off 5%.

    I'm hoping the market has overshot on oil and we're due a correction.
    There’s rumours of Air Force One heading to Riyadh in the next few days, in an attempt to increase Saudi supply - which they say is currently constrained by export facilities and ships.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    Blair/Labour were in office for 13 years from 1997-2010
    This period of Conservative government will comfortably exceed that but it doesn't feel it, still less the Thatcher-Major period of 18 years.

    At no time has it felt secure and transformatory.
    It has certainly been the latter, and not in a good way.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    kinabalu said:

    The horror the horror. How Donald Trump and his goons persecuted individuals just trying to do their job in his attempt to steal the 2020 election.

    I have a really hard time understanding why this man is being allowed to run again. Lock him up ffs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-61889593

    The irony is that should he run and win in 2024 lots of people will be locked up for "stealing" 2020.

    Scott_xP said:

    BA is currently leasing European aircraft while it has British aircraft in storage, purely to get around post-Brexit visa rules for European airline crews.

    Just one example of the craziness of losing access to the EU labour market and free movement.

    https://twitter.com/crimlawuk/status/1538788155083706368

    Maybe you need a word with Starmer who is about to declare labour will not allow FOM again
    Yes, Starmer's current EU relationship policy is another good reason for Durham Constabulary to issue him with his FPN.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    Blair/Labour were in office for 13 years from 1997-2010
    This period of Conservative government will comfortably exceed that but it doesn't feel it, still less the Thatcher-Major period of 18 years.

    At no time has it felt secure and transformatory.
    No it won't at most the Conservatives will only be in office for 14 years compared to 13 years for New Labour. Only including the period the Conservatives were in government with a majority they will only have been in power for 7 years compared to 13 years of majority New Labour government
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,823
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    The horror the horror. How Donald Trump and his goons persecuted individuals just trying to do their job in his attempt to steal the 2020 election.

    I have a really hard time understanding why this man is being allowed to run again. Lock him up ffs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-61889593

    I agree, but the following extract is puzzling;

    "In their lawsuits, they alleged 10,315 dead people [voted]," Mr Raffensperger said, but a thorough review found a total of only four.
    You'd be looking for zero, wouldn't you, but I guess there's always a tiny bit of it going on?

    Certainly the dead shouldn't vote. I'm clear on that.
    Postal votes? You are always going to get some who die between posting their votes and polling day.
  • HYUFD said:

    darkage said:

    I found this table on state pension rises. If you look at it, the state pension has cumulatively risen by around 45% over 11 years. Whereas, as I understand it, public sector pay rises have been frozen at 0.5 - 1% for the whole time. What is explosive is the prospective April 2023 rise to the state pension, if it is CPI, it could be 10%.

    The government make things worse by just going on about how people must 'take the pain' etc. They have just themselves to blame. There was bound to be a eventual reckoning for such a divisive and unfair policy.

    State pension triple lock: rises since 2011
    Financial year State pension rise Based on
    2011/12 4.6% RPI
    2012/13 5.2% CPI
    2013/14 2.5% 2.5%
    2014/15 2.7% CPI
    2015/16 2.5% 2.5%
    2016/17 2.9% Earnings
    2017/18 2.5% 2.5%
    2018/19 3% CPI
    2019/20 2.6% Earnings
    2020/21 3.9% Earnings
    2021/22 2.5% 2.5%
    2022/23 3.1% CPI

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor/article/state-pension-increase/

    While that's true, it's worth seeing it in the wider context of the erosion in value of the state pension since Thatcher removed the link to earnings.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6f8531d6-ddfd-11e4-8d14-00144feab7de

    It would be interesting to see the FT chart updated with the latest figures.
    Of course today's pensioners were working in Thatcher's day, not pensioners. So if it was good enough for their parents to have the link broken, and not saved for, then why isn't it good enough for them?
    Boomers eh? They screwed over their parents. Then they screwed over their kids. The most selfish generation.
    What rubbish, thanks to boomers their children and grandchildren will inherit more than any generation before them.

    What rubbish. If our own income wasn't being taken from us to prop up the selfish generation, we wouldn't need an inheritance when we are already old ourselves to get an inheritance.

    I would rather work for a living and keep my own income than rely upon my parents dying and getting an inheritance, what about you?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,782

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    Blair/Labour were in office for 13 years from 1997-2010
    This period of Conservative government will comfortably exceed that but it doesn't feel it, still less the Thatcher-Major period of 18 years.

    At no time has it felt secure and transformatory.
    Might not feel like it to you. To me it has felt like a fucking eternity. And not transformatory? We've ripped up our relationship with the EU, derailed the Northern Ireland settlement, abandoned basic standards of good government, seen an unprecedented surge in hunger, overseen the worst stagnation in living standards since the nineteenth century... By the time this lot have finished the country will be barely recognisable.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,446
    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Private (and occupational) pensions?

    Boomers have already emptied the pot, so those that follow do so on vastly inferior terms.
    In my case it was my company pension and I remained in serps which was a very sensible decision
    IMO income tax rates should be higher for people over a certain age, say 65.

    0/22.5/42.5/47.5 instead of 0/20/40/45. What is your view on that?
    At the moment you have 0/33/43/48 for most workers (Not even getting onto te monstrosity that is employer NI...).
    For younger uni grads (Who can't really avoid going because of competitive advantage reasons within their cohort) it is 0/33/42/51/57 & then weirdly 48 if you earn enough...
    It's absurdly high taxation, and it's a disgrace.

    We tax people heavily in this country and then piss it mightily up the wall.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    edited June 2022
    HYUFD said:

    darkage said:

    I found this table on state pension rises. If you look at it, the state pension has cumulatively risen by around 45% over 11 years. Whereas, as I understand it, public sector pay rises have been frozen at 0.5 - 1% for the whole time. What is explosive is the prospective April 2023 rise to the state pension, if it is CPI, it could be 10%.

    The government make things worse by just going on about how people must 'take the pain' etc. They have just themselves to blame. There was bound to be a eventual reckoning for such a divisive and unfair policy.

    State pension triple lock: rises since 2011
    Financial year State pension rise Based on
    2011/12 4.6% RPI
    2012/13 5.2% CPI
    2013/14 2.5% 2.5%
    2014/15 2.7% CPI
    2015/16 2.5% 2.5%
    2016/17 2.9% Earnings
    2017/18 2.5% 2.5%
    2018/19 3% CPI
    2019/20 2.6% Earnings
    2020/21 3.9% Earnings
    2021/22 2.5% 2.5%
    2022/23 3.1% CPI

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor/article/state-pension-increase/

    While that's true, it's worth seeing it in the wider context of the erosion in value of the state pension since Thatcher removed the link to earnings.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6f8531d6-ddfd-11e4-8d14-00144feab7de

    It would be interesting to see the FT chart updated with the latest figures.
    Of course today's pensioners were working in Thatcher's day, not pensioners. So if it was good enough for their parents to have the link broken, and not saved for, then why isn't it good enough for them?
    Boomers eh? They screwed over their parents. Then they screwed over their kids. The most selfish generation.
    What rubbish, thanks to boomers their children and grandchildren will inherit more than any generation before them.

    You are assuming they do not need care and nursing over several years

    My son in law's parents have already burned through £200,000+ in nursing care costs though his mother has recently died
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    edited June 2022
    Bit grumpy on here this morning.

    A man goes to see the priest and says "I need to confess, I have sinned; I'm having unwholesome thoughts about Coochie Green". Puzzled, the priest shrugs and says "say three Hail Marys and you will be forgiven".

    The next day another man goes to the priest and says "I have sinned, I'm having unwholesome thoughts about Coochie Green". More puzzled, the priest shrugs and says "say three Hail Marys and all will be forgiven".

    On Sunday the priest is at the pulpit and a glamorous woman walks in wearing a fabulous green dress, cut really short, and shiny green shoes. She sits down on the first row and it is clearly apparent that she is wearing no knickers.

    The priest turns to the altar boy and says "Is that Coochie Green?" and the altar boy says "It's just the reflection from her shoes".
  • DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    darkage said:

    I found this table on state pension rises. If you look at it, the state pension has cumulatively risen by around 45% over 11 years. Whereas, as I understand it, public sector pay rises have been frozen at 0.5 - 1% for the whole time. What is explosive is the prospective April 2023 rise to the state pension, if it is CPI, it could be 10%.

    The government make things worse by just going on about how people must 'take the pain' etc. They have just themselves to blame. There was bound to be a eventual reckoning for such a divisive and unfair policy.

    State pension triple lock: rises since 2011
    Financial year State pension rise Based on
    2011/12 4.6% RPI
    2012/13 5.2% CPI
    2013/14 2.5% 2.5%
    2014/15 2.7% CPI
    2015/16 2.5% 2.5%
    2016/17 2.9% Earnings
    2017/18 2.5% 2.5%
    2018/19 3% CPI
    2019/20 2.6% Earnings
    2020/21 3.9% Earnings
    2021/22 2.5% 2.5%
    2022/23 3.1% CPI

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor/article/state-pension-increase/

    While that's true, it's worth seeing it in the wider context of the erosion in value of the state pension since Thatcher removed the link to earnings.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6f8531d6-ddfd-11e4-8d14-00144feab7de

    It would be interesting to see the FT chart updated with the latest figures.
    Of course today's pensioners were working in Thatcher's day, not pensioners. So if it was good enough for their parents to have the link broken, and not saved for, then why isn't it good enough for them?
    Boomers eh? They screwed over their parents. Then they screwed over their kids. The most selfish generation.
    What rubbish, thanks to boomers their children and grandchildren will inherit more than any generation before them.

    So you basically agree that they stole all the wealth?
    He thinks we should be greatful for getting their leftovers after they're dead.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    A few days ago I commented that the problem with the strike was that it didn't have a clearly articulated purpose.

    Well, the Mick Lynch media blitz has fixed that... And more. The big shift in support has come from a lot of people recognizing the argument and saying "hey, that applies to me too."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Nigelb said:

    Very good, and rather scary article on Russia's nuclear threat.

    What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?
    A look at the grim scenarios—and the U.S. playbook for each
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapon-us-response/661315/

    I recommend the whole thing - and note that, for all its faults, we are very lucky to have the Biden administration in charge at this point, as they are probably uniquely well prepared to respond rationally.

    I take comfort in the fact that tritium is $30,000 a gram. Each US nuclear weapon has 3 - 5 grams in it. So, $90,000 to $150,000 in small gas cartridges (probably the size of those laughing gas capsules you see littering the streets).

    In Russia, they will all have been stolen by now. Without them, every Russian nuclear weapon will have a yield of a Davy Crockett.

    Better yet, if the tritium has been replaced with either of the obvious fakes - hydrogen or helium - they will act as a neutron absorbing reaction poison. And probably prevent any yield at all.....
    So long as the Russian thieves haven’t let them end up in Iran.

    But yes, as we’ve seen, there’s a very wide gap between the theoretical power of the Russian military, and the reality of it on the ground.

    How confident would they be, that attempting to launch a nuclear weapon wouldn’t simply irradiate their own facility?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    darkage said:

    I found this table on state pension rises. If you look at it, the state pension has cumulatively risen by around 45% over 11 years. Whereas, as I understand it, public sector pay rises have been frozen at 0.5 - 1% for the whole time. What is explosive is the prospective April 2023 rise to the state pension, if it is CPI, it could be 10%.

    The government make things worse by just going on about how people must 'take the pain' etc. They have just themselves to blame. There was bound to be a eventual reckoning for such a divisive and unfair policy.

    State pension triple lock: rises since 2011
    Financial year State pension rise Based on
    2011/12 4.6% RPI
    2012/13 5.2% CPI
    2013/14 2.5% 2.5%
    2014/15 2.7% CPI
    2015/16 2.5% 2.5%
    2016/17 2.9% Earnings
    2017/18 2.5% 2.5%
    2018/19 3% CPI
    2019/20 2.6% Earnings
    2020/21 3.9% Earnings
    2021/22 2.5% 2.5%
    2022/23 3.1% CPI

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor/article/state-pension-increase/

    While that's true, it's worth seeing it in the wider context of the erosion in value of the state pension since Thatcher removed the link to earnings.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6f8531d6-ddfd-11e4-8d14-00144feab7de

    It would be interesting to see the FT chart updated with the latest figures.
    Of course today's pensioners were working in Thatcher's day, not pensioners. So if it was good enough for their parents to have the link broken, and not saved for, then why isn't it good enough for them?
    Boomers eh? They screwed over their parents. Then they screwed over their kids. The most selfish generation.
    What rubbish, thanks to boomers their children and grandchildren will inherit more than any generation before them.

    What rubbish. If our own income wasn't being taken from us to prop up the selfish generation, we wouldn't need an inheritance when we are already old ourselves to get an inheritance.

    I would rather work for a living and keep my own income than rely upon my parents dying and getting an inheritance, what about you?
    What rubbish. Workers earning under £35k have even got an NI cut.

    While pay rises in the City of London are far in excess of what increase the average boomer dependent on the state pension is getting!

    I am also a Tory and support inherited wealth, not a libertarian liberal like you
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Look, it is fairly simple. They have voted themselves to be the richest generation ever yet also to make their children and especially grandchildren poorer. That is selfish and extremely unusual in peacetime.

    Now I am sure most pensioners are not individually selfish in their voting, but collectively that is the effect of their votes and how it has been targeted by both main parties.
    One of the aspects of this which seems to almost never be mentioned and to my mind is incredible, is how many people are going to have to rely pretty much for most of their pension on the State Pension in, say thirty years time.

    Seems millions are saving the bare minimum into the auto enrolment schemes that Steve Webb and co introduced under Cameron. Not enough contribution to give a reasonable pension. They will have to fall back on the State.

    The pressure to do more on State Pension is likely to rise not fall in next decade or three imho.

    Yes - the 1997 changes to pensions, in particular, will filter through over time into much more of a burden on the State.
    Is that when the dividend system changed?
    Yes, Brown’s first budget as Chancellor.
    Which arguably finished off final salary schemes. An important point.

    But as they are now basically long go the issue today is that millions are being allowed to contribute far too little via auto enrolment into NEST or whatever it is called and have nothing else.
    We have far higher enrolment in workplace pensions now than most of Europe
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Ghedebrav said:

    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    On booking offices, the only time I use them is to buy a ticket that the machine won't sell me. We can use our Network Railcards (1/3 off journeys in the old Network Southeast area) from 10am. But I can't buy a ticket from a machine until 10am, and so I can't catch the 10am to London. But the booking office will sell me a ticket at 09:55.

    The machines are also a pain in the arse if you want to buy two tickets - one from A to B, and another from B to C, because doing so is cheaper than buying a ticket from A to C directly.
    The Trainline App does that easily.

    The real problem with split ticketing is the absurdity of a pricing system that creates it in the first place.
    Oh indeed. When I was last with my parents, I got the train from Corby to St Pancras - and was told to buy one ticket from Corby to Bedford, and another from Bedford to London, to save £10 on a £50 ticket. That’s a good sign of a screwed-up system.
    Tickety split has got me a ticket to Dumfries in Scotland and back for less than £15 on 9th July.

    Or should I say tickets (7 to be precise)
    Where do you live, Carlisle?! The booking fees alone ...
    Ticket is from Hazel Grove to Dumfries via Preston and Carlisle on the way up and Carlisle Wigan Manchester on the way back..

    I do have a railcard so full adult cost would de about £23 I think
    Interesting - I have to travel from Gatley to Dumfries with my two kids in August, so I'll look at this!

    PB - come to rubberneck the political brouhaha, stay for the travel advice.
    It is entirely feasible that there are PB regulars who never address either politics or betting. Interest in those topics is often peripheral.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    darkage said:

    I found this table on state pension rises. If you look at it, the state pension has cumulatively risen by around 45% over 11 years. Whereas, as I understand it, public sector pay rises have been frozen at 0.5 - 1% for the whole time. What is explosive is the prospective April 2023 rise to the state pension, if it is CPI, it could be 10%.

    The government make things worse by just going on about how people must 'take the pain' etc. They have just themselves to blame. There was bound to be a eventual reckoning for such a divisive and unfair policy.

    State pension triple lock: rises since 2011
    Financial year State pension rise Based on
    2011/12 4.6% RPI
    2012/13 5.2% CPI
    2013/14 2.5% 2.5%
    2014/15 2.7% CPI
    2015/16 2.5% 2.5%
    2016/17 2.9% Earnings
    2017/18 2.5% 2.5%
    2018/19 3% CPI
    2019/20 2.6% Earnings
    2020/21 3.9% Earnings
    2021/22 2.5% 2.5%
    2022/23 3.1% CPI

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor/article/state-pension-increase/

    While that's true, it's worth seeing it in the wider context of the erosion in value of the state pension since Thatcher removed the link to earnings.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6f8531d6-ddfd-11e4-8d14-00144feab7de

    It would be interesting to see the FT chart updated with the latest figures.
    Of course today's pensioners were working in Thatcher's day, not pensioners. So if it was good enough for their parents to have the link broken, and not saved for, then why isn't it good enough for them?
    Boomers eh? They screwed over their parents. Then they screwed over their kids. The most selfish generation.
    What rubbish, thanks to boomers their children and grandchildren will inherit more than any generation before them.

    What rubbish. If our own income wasn't being taken from us to prop up the selfish generation, we wouldn't need an inheritance when we are already old ourselves to get an inheritance.

    I would rather work for a living and keep my own income than rely upon my parents dying and getting an inheritance, what about you?
    What rubbish. Workers earning under £35k have even got an NI cut.

    While pay rises in the City of London are far in excess of what increase the average boomer dependent on the state pension is getting!

    I am also a Tory and support inherited wealth, not a libertarian liberal like you
    Technically not true - anyone earning below £35k got a NI cut from April through to July 1st.

    (Payroll that week is going to be mare for payroll providers).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262
    edited June 2022
    One reason the rails strike may be popular, that hasn't been mentioned.

    A number of companies were trying to push people back to the office. In others, the idea was being raised.

    In still others, WFH 2-3 days a week has been brought in.

    For rail commuters, the rest of the week is WFH. With sunshine in much of the country.....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    edited June 2022

    kinabalu said:

    The horror the horror. How Donald Trump and his goons persecuted individuals just trying to do their job in his attempt to steal the 2020 election.

    I have a really hard time understanding why this man is being allowed to run again. Lock him up ffs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-61889593

    There was about a one week window when he could have been impeached and the likes of McConnell would have gone along with it.

    The lesson from that and similarly with Boris is that to get rid of the narcissists you have to strike as soon as you can rather than wait for perfect timing.
    Yep. I remember when Jan 6th happened posting on here that the silver lining was it surely ended Trump as a force in politics. Which it should have done but like you say the moment passed and now here we are with him the betting fav to be president again. I remain confident he won't be - but what a stain on America that it's a real possibility.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    edited June 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    They also voted for Brexit. And yet ... "The Resolution Foundation thinktank and academics from the London School of Economics said the average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than £470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with a remain vote in 2016." Of course, stuff the workers - the pensioners are OK.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/brexit-is-making-cost-of-living-crisis-worse-new-study-claims
    Yet inflation was low after Brexit, it is only the war in Ukraine and the limited energy supplies and excess demand post Covid that have really seen inflation rise.

    It was of course not just pensioners who voted for Brexit either, all voters over 47 did therefore including many still of working age. Plus pensioners who were graduates voted Remain while working under 35 non graduates voted Leave
    I don't think all voters over 47 voted for Brexit?
    The majority of all age groups over 47 did vote Leave in 2016
    But you said that all voters aged over 47 voted for Brexit. That is a lie.
    I voted remain but support brexit following the vote, but also would support re-joining the single market with FOM

    Bit of a mix to be honest, but I do not support re-joining and expect this is probably where the majority view is at present
    The story is complex. Lots of people voted Leave reluctantly because they wanted a reformed EU. Lots of people voted Remain reluctantly because they wanted a reformed EU. The majority choice wasn't on the table.

    A simple derogation from some aspects of FoM would have been enough, but the rigid fundamentalists on both sides prevailed.

    This gave parliament (not government - parliament is sovereign) a unique task and opportunity to be wise, creative, unified and bold.
    The obvious answer - 'Norway for Now' would have hit a populist reaction, and therefore required a united front. Parliament failed either to do this, or to do better than this.

    Brexit voters (I am one) take responsibility for doing so. But not for either the intransigence of the EU or the self interested failures of parliament.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Look, it is fairly simple. They have voted themselves to be the richest generation ever yet also to make their children and especially grandchildren poorer. That is selfish and extremely unusual in peacetime.

    Now I am sure most pensioners are not individually selfish in their voting, but collectively that is the effect of their votes and how it has been targeted by both main parties.
    One of the aspects of this which seems to almost never be mentioned and to my mind is incredible, is how many people are going to have to rely pretty much for most of their pension on the State Pension in, say thirty years time.

    Seems millions are saving the bare minimum into the auto enrolment schemes that Steve Webb and co introduced under Cameron. Not enough contribution to give a reasonable pension. They will have to fall back on the State.

    The pressure to do more on State Pension is likely to rise not fall in next decade or three imho.

    Yes - the 1997 changes to pensions, in particular, will filter through over time into much more of a burden on the State.
    Is that when the dividend system changed?
    Yes, Brown’s first budget as Chancellor.
    Which arguably finished off final salary schemes. An important point.

    But as they are now basically long go the issue today is that millions are being allowed to contribute far too little via auto enrolment into NEST or whatever it is called and have nothing else.
    There will be millions of people who think they have “ a pension”, but have been paying the statutory minimum in, and will discover close to retirement that their pension isn’t sufficient.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    They also voted for Brexit. And yet ... "The Resolution Foundation thinktank and academics from the London School of Economics said the average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than £470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with a remain vote in 2016." Of course, stuff the workers - the pensioners are OK.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/brexit-is-making-cost-of-living-crisis-worse-new-study-claims
    Yet inflation was low after Brexit, it is only the war in Ukraine and the limited energy supplies and excess demand post Covid that have really seen inflation rise.

    It was of course not just pensioners who voted for Brexit either, all voters over 47 did therefore including many still of working age. Plus pensioners who were graduates voted Remain while working under 35 non graduates voted Leave
    Oh dear, oh dear. More sweeping statements and more selective polling, and this time without any spurious citations.
    70% of voters over 65 with a degree voted Remain in 2016. 67% of 18 to 34s with just GCSEs voted Leave in 2016.

    Age may be the key determinant of voting intention now and whether you vote Tory or Labour but education level not age was the key determinant of the Brexit vote

    https://anthonybmasters.medium.com/age-education-and-the-eu-referendum-ca7525be173d

    See also France where the EU hostile Le Pen and her party did better with under 35s than pensioners in the French elections this year
    How do you account then for my remain vote, when I left grammar school and held several jobs before opening my own business without any further education other than the education of life
    It may surprise you to know that even some 18 to 34s with only GCSEs also voted Remain.

    I was talking averages and showing it is a myth that age was the key determinant of the Brexit vote. It wasn't, it was education level.

    Elderly graduates mostly voted Remain, younger people without a degree or A levels mostly voted Leave
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    RPi up to 11.7% from 11.1% and the RMT asking for 7% and rejecting 3% somehow makes them Marxists.

    BigG and Co are protected though

    The new offer is 4% this morning, but if the triple lock is reintroduced next year it will be equivalent of £960 on the pension of just £9,600 increasing their income to 10,560 pa and you want to demonise them

    Yes, many pensioners have saved into private pensions and the assets in their homes are a cushion in future care and nursing fees which otherwise would fall on the exchequer or provides for their children and grandchildren
    Private (and occupational) pensions?

    Boomers have already emptied the pot, so those that follow do so on vastly inferior terms.
    In my case it was my company pension and I remained in serps which was a very sensible decision
    IMO income tax rates should be higher for people over a certain age, say 65.

    0/22.5/42.5/47.5 instead of 0/20/40/45. What is your view on that?
    At the moment you have 0/33/43/48 for most workers (Not even getting onto te monstrosity that is employer NI...).
    For younger uni grads (Who can't really avoid going because of competitive advantage reasons within their cohort) it is 0/33/42/51/57 & then weirdly 48 if you earn enough...
    It's absurdly high taxation, and it's a disgrace.

    We tax people heavily in this country and then piss it mightily up the wall.
    Yep - I'm paying more in tax than in 2010 and I see less for it both locally and nationally..

    So exactly where is the tax money going as it doesn't seem to be on workers, services or infrastructure.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    So is it CPI that is 9.1%? And that excludes housing cost inflation?

    Christ.

    It is going higher still so a lot of pain ahead
    Pain felt by younger working people and not the asset classes or the retired.
    Many pensioners receive the state pension of just £9,600 pa and are really hurting
    True, but the state pensioners now are the ones who voted for Thatcher from '79 onwards. The current stingy state pension follows on from policies of her governments.

    I have some sympathy, but fairly limited amounts.
    They also voted for Brexit. And yet ... "The Resolution Foundation thinktank and academics from the London School of Economics said the average worker in Britain was now on course to suffer more than £470 in lost pay each year by 2030 after rising living costs are taken into account, compared with a remain vote in 2016." Of course, stuff the workers - the pensioners are OK.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/brexit-is-making-cost-of-living-crisis-worse-new-study-claims
    Yet inflation was low after Brexit, it is only the war in Ukraine and the limited energy supplies and excess demand post Covid that have really seen inflation rise.

    It was of course not just pensioners who voted for Brexit either, all voters over 47 did therefore including many still of working age. Plus pensioners who were graduates voted Remain while working under 35 non graduates voted Leave
    Oh dear, oh dear. More sweeping statements and more selective polling, and this time without any spurious citations.
    70% of voters over 65 with a degree voted Remain in 2016. 67% of 18 to 34s with just GCSEs voted Leave in 2016.

    Age may be the key determinant of voting intention now and whether you vote Tory or Labour but education level not age was the key determinant of the Brexit vote

    https://anthonybmasters.medium.com/age-education-and-the-eu-referendum-ca7525be173d

    See also France where the EU hostile Le Pen and her party did better with under 35s than pensioners in the French elections this year
    That is a pretty horrific set of statistics if true. What you're saying is that it was just the thickos that gave us Brexit? It wasn't even dementia related.

    AND they also gave us the Johnson government. What kind of people are they?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    darkage said:

    I found this table on state pension rises. If you look at it, the state pension has cumulatively risen by around 45% over 11 years. Whereas, as I understand it, public sector pay rises have been frozen at 0.5 - 1% for the whole time. What is explosive is the prospective April 2023 rise to the state pension, if it is CPI, it could be 10%.

    The government make things worse by just going on about how people must 'take the pain' etc. They have just themselves to blame. There was bound to be a eventual reckoning for such a divisive and unfair policy.

    State pension triple lock: rises since 2011
    Financial year State pension rise Based on
    2011/12 4.6% RPI
    2012/13 5.2% CPI
    2013/14 2.5% 2.5%
    2014/15 2.7% CPI
    2015/16 2.5% 2.5%
    2016/17 2.9% Earnings
    2017/18 2.5% 2.5%
    2018/19 3% CPI
    2019/20 2.6% Earnings
    2020/21 3.9% Earnings
    2021/22 2.5% 2.5%
    2022/23 3.1% CPI

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor/article/state-pension-increase/

    While that's true, it's worth seeing it in the wider context of the erosion in value of the state pension since Thatcher removed the link to earnings.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6f8531d6-ddfd-11e4-8d14-00144feab7de

    It would be interesting to see the FT chart updated with the latest figures.
    Of course today's pensioners were working in Thatcher's day, not pensioners. So if it was good enough for their parents to have the link broken, and not saved for, then why isn't it good enough for them?
    Boomers eh? They screwed over their parents. Then they screwed over their kids. The most selfish generation.
    What rubbish, thanks to boomers their children and grandchildren will inherit more than any generation before them.

    You are assuming they do not need care and nursing over several years

    My son in law's parents have already burned through £200,000+ in nursing care costs though his mother has recently died
    3/4 of over 65s will not need social care or will die beforehand
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    The horror the horror. How Donald Trump and his goons persecuted individuals just trying to do their job in his attempt to steal the 2020 election.

    I have a really hard time understanding why this man is being allowed to run again. Lock him up ffs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-61889593

    I agree, but the following extract is puzzling;

    "In their lawsuits, they alleged 10,315 dead people [voted]," Mr Raffensperger said, but a thorough review found a total of only four.
    You'd be looking for zero, wouldn't you, but I guess there's always a tiny bit of it going on?

    Certainly the dead shouldn't vote. I'm clear on that.
    Necrophobic bigotry.
  • Nigelb said:

    Empirically, the largest change in attitudes to Brexit is on the part of those who didn't vote at the time.
    They seriously regret not turning out to defeat the measure.
    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/10434631211035202

    Considering EU referendum turnout was 72.21% which is higher (typically much higher) than any General Election since 1992 I'm calling bullshit on any suggestion anyone eligible to vote who didn't reflect anything significant politically.

    Doesn't pass the sniff test at all.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Some relief on inflation coming ?

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/brn00?countrycode=uk

    Brent crude off 5%.

    I'm hoping the market has overshot on oil and we're due a correction.
    There’s rumours of Air Force One heading to Riyadh in the next few days, in an attempt to increase Saudi supply - which they say is currently constrained by export facilities and ships.
    or (what I suspect is the reality) the fact their are pumping out everything they can as the fields drain out..
This discussion has been closed.