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Savanta poll: By 58% to 35% the rail strikes are “justified” – politicalbetting.com
Savanta poll: By 58% to 35% the rail strikes are “justified” – politicalbetting.com
I added the above Savanta poll as an update sometime after the previous post was published and given its findings I thought it was worth a thread in Its own right. For the whole of Ministers’ strategy has been based on the public backing their robust opposition to the rail workers. If Savanta is right then Team Johnson has got this one wrong.
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https://twitter.com/DenisMacShane/status/1539329313111146497?s=20&t=aRwk1jzSowYeknTxKjrlPw
If you look at Yougov, 72% of Tory voters oppose the strikes, 65% of Labour voters support them
Remember too 2019 Con voters includes some redwall Labour voters who normally vote Labour, voted for Boris once to get Brexit done and now have gone back to Labour
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1539255468979257346?s=20&t=dIx7KKX94Q7YBae2nat0DA
If mosr people (including commuters) are not bothered then the union could find it is on a hiding to nothing. The government will want the union to be seen to lose so as to discourage other groups from strikes.
But hold on
37% of 13941086
=
5158201
13941086 minus 5158201
You’ve only got 8,782,885 voters left if the election is “who governs Britain?”
But how does the government actually lose?
Victory for union is 7% pay increase, slower modernisation on staffing levels, with more generous leaving offers and no involuntary redundancies, no watering down of Ts&Cs.
Victory for government is union accepts less than 7%, agrees to faster modernisation programme on staffing levels, with option of involuntary redundancy left on table.
But what pressures the government into u turns and concessions at this negotiation table? If in the governments mind it’s not an industrial dispute, it’s a dispute it has to win politically, it cannot lose for sake of its economic strategy battling inflation, where does any pressure come onto the government? There’s no pressure comparable to conceding and losing.
In theory the whole country could be bankrupt by this strike, and still the government won’t concede an inch, if it’s existential for them politically to win.
If government cannot surpress public sector pay in the coming months it says goodbye to winning the next election. So the union cannot win this one, there is zero pressure it can apply on the government to meaningfully talk and concede anything.
It’s not existential for the Union to accept 4% and redundancies - it is existential crisis for the government to be seen to lose this one.
I don’t think I am saying anything particularly ground breaking or clever here, why don’t we just keep it simple. The government does not need wage inflation to start fuelling inflation, it needs inflation down asap. If the government loses industrial disputes it will start to set a bit of a trend. Across public and private sector, if rail industry can get 7% rise then why can’t I? The main reason this post is on topic is because you would expect NHS staff and teachers to do far better in these sort of polls than ticket office staff and train guards?
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2022/06/21/officer-husband-of-slain-uvalde-teacher-was-detained-had-gun-taken-away-after-trying-to-save-wife/?__vfz=medium=sharebar
https://t.co/sA1dHSJUyL
Potentially quite an escalation in terms of NATO becoming directly involved.
Russia would be absolutely unbelievably idiotic to attack Lithuania now.
Arguably, goods in transit from one bit of Russia to another are not busting sanctions.
Not sure how much military the Russians still have in Belarus and Kaliningrad, but attempting to take that railroad corridor would be a direct attack on a NATO member. It could get quite hairy indeed.
In other news, the German artillery has arrived in Ukraine, quite a formidable capability.
https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1539225560588734466?t=fnl4vvWVT36A4PmcWer6_w&s=19
1. The Russians conclude they will lose the war in Ukraine and they believe defeat against NATO is politically more survivable than defeat against Ukraine alone.
2. The Russians convince themselves that NATO is even more of a Potemkin military than Russia and they can force NATO to stop supplying arms to Ukraine by exposing NATO weakness and division.
It also seems that the classroom door was not locked.
As for Kaliningrad: the Russians have lots of military there, including nukes and its Baltic Fleet. A fair number of soldiers as well.
Lithuania is in a damned if it does, damned if it does not situation.
As with the original invasion, if Russia does anything it is not because they have been 'poked' or provoked. They will do something because their leader wants a new empire that encompasses the territory of neighbouring independent states.
Putin and Russia see any reaction that goes against their wishes as an escalation.
The NATO force in Lithuania is mostly German. The British forces are in Estonia, I think.
Of course, this is in *no way* an escalation, and just Russia doing what it needs to for self defence (where 'self' is defined as anywhere it wants...)
This is allegedly what it is like to be near one when it does:
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1539362629122248705
Another of those videos that makes me feel sorry for the common Russian soldier who has been sent to fight by an evil man in an evil cause. But sadly, they need to be defeated.
Britain is becoming a more closed economy due to Brexit, with damaging long-term implications for productivity and wages which will leave the average worker 470 pounds ($577) a year poorer by the end of the decade, a study forecast on Wednesday.
“… Brexit has had a more diffuse impact by reducing the UK's competitiveness and openness to trade with a wider range of countries. This will ultimately reduce productivity, and workers' real wages too…”
The net effect of these [barriers] would lower productivity across the economy by 1.3% by 2030 compared with an unchanged trade relationship - translating to a 1.8% real-terms fall in annual pay of 470 pounds per worker.
These figures do not include any assessment of the impact of changed migration rules.
The impact for some sectors will be much starker. Britain's small but high profile fishing industry - many of whose members advocated strongly for Brexit - was likely to shrink by 30% due to difficulties exporting its fresh catch to EU customers, the report said.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/brexit-will-cost-uk-workers-470-pounds-year-study-predicts-2022-06-21/
It is easy to see how this escalates if Putin attacks.
He has already shown himself to be capable of making decisions that were to the detriment of people in other countries (including our own). Blaming Lithuania for 'escalating' does seem a little like victim-blaming.
If Putin wants war, he will wage it. And he will use any excuse going to do it.
Of course, there's another way that Putin can restore the land bridge to Kaliningrad and have sanctions removed from Russia. It's a really, really easy one, and one that it totally within his own hands.
He could withdraw all his troops from Ukraine.
Please note that these do not appear to be poorly-trained Russian lads, but rather battle-hardened People’s Militia of the Luhansk People's Republic. If this is how experienced soldiers behave, imagine how daft untrained wee boys sent unwillingly to a foreign country behave in similar circumstances.
From 16 June, Ukrainian military hit ammunition depot and secondary explosions, in Khrustalnyi… perhaps.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdGA88Eo8vs
Where are their clothes, helmets, protective equipment, weapons, commanding officers and routines?
And why is someone filming this on their mobile? Presumably later removed from their corpse by the Ukrainians and put out on the net.
Heck, it isn’t that long ago since the President said the United States would not automatically defend the Baltic states from Russia if they were invaded.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2016/07/21/donald-trump-cast-doubt-on-the-baltics-involvement-in-nato-heres-what-they-actually-do/
It is almost certain that there will be a huge wave of strikes in the public sector. The government are all over the place. They have 10% inflation then insist on 1-2% pay rises - after a decade of pay being essentially frozen. Public sector workers are essentially being taken for fools. They've already been squeezed to the max already. Government will also try and turn this in to a culture war type issue, but it will fail; they keep misreading the culture, they think it is still the 70's and people remember Red Robbo or whatever but this was before most working age peoples time. The government are just playing to their own gold plated pensioner triple lock audience who are quickly dying out in vast quantities and those who are still alive are going to vote for them anyway.
With the train strikes, I would guess that they will continue indefinetly with popular support from the professional classes who, for the most part, welcome the opportunity to WFH.
The government make things worse by just going on about how people must 'take the pain' etc. They have just themselves to blame. There was bound to be a eventual reckoning for such a divisive and unfair policy.
State pension triple lock: rises since 2011
Financial year State pension rise Based on
2011/12 4.6% RPI
2012/13 5.2% CPI
2013/14 2.5% 2.5%
2014/15 2.7% CPI
2015/16 2.5% 2.5%
2016/17 2.9% Earnings
2017/18 2.5% 2.5%
2018/19 3% CPI
2019/20 2.6% Earnings
2020/21 3.9% Earnings
2021/22 2.5% 2.5%
2022/23 3.1% CPI
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor/article/state-pension-increase/
https://www.ft.com/content/6f8531d6-ddfd-11e4-8d14-00144feab7de
It would be interesting to see the FT chart updated with the latest figures.
No 10 to set out sweeping plans to override power of Europe’s human rights court
Proposal to replace Human Rights Act with bill of rights is effort to make government ‘untouchable’, say critics
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2022/jun/21/uks-new-bill-of-rights-will-curtail-power-of-european-human-rights-court
With Raab in the lead…
Last 3 YouGov polls, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:
Voting intention - Scotland
Reverse chronological order
(+/- change from last UK GE)
SNP 40 49 48 average 46% (+1)
SLab 29 16 18 average 21% (+2)
SCon 17 21 18 average 19% (-6)
SLD 6 8 10 average 8% (-2)
Grn 3 4 5 average 4% (+3)
Ref 3 0 1 average 1% (-)
oth (primarily Alba) 2 3 1 average 2% (+1)
Yes parties 52% (+5)
No parties 49% (-4)
We desperately need some proper, full-sample polling.
We got one for Wales the other day, but no Scottish polling in ages. Why?
(* I know, I know…)
So I can see why Scot Nats would suggest it.
I think that the governments proposals just need to be looked at on their merits.
But it seems that the strategic problem is the ECHR and its role in essentially setting out domestic policy by way of its decisions, which should be in the proper realm of politics.
What confuses me is why the government makes no attempt to seriously reform that. It just keeps coming up with flawed domestic workarounds.
There are many echoes of the UK's relationship with the EU. It never seriously tried to actually fix the underlying problem.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Northern_War
Scots, take note.
NOM 1.78
Con Maj 3.8
Lab Maj 5
1. The calculus of a direct attack on NATO hasn't changed. It is impossible for Russia to win such a war, and it would be utter insanity to try.
2. The Russian army is in pieces, and is having to concentrate all its strength to capture, very slowly and painfully, what's left of one small city in Eastern Ukraine, whilst scrambling to hold on to everything else it's already stolen against Ukrainian counterattacks elsewhere along the front. What, therefore, are they meant to invade Lithuania with? The 21st Novosibirsk Girl Guides Brigade, perhaps?
Moscow's capabilities and its war aims are finite, and they become more limited the longer its armed forces and economy are worn down by this conflict. The most likely resolution to this war is that Putin manages - eventually, and at colossal cost - to complete his "liberation" of the Donbas, declares victory, and orders his troops to fortify along the borders of the occupied territories. Donbas and the land bridge to Crimea are then annexed by Russia through a process of sham plebiscites, and Ukraine is de facto partitioned.
The end state of the conflict then becomes something like that seen with the line of control through Kashmir - two very heavily armed and well dug in forces, facing one another for decades but without the war resuming because it would be too costly for both participants. Ukraine and the West refuse to recognise the Russian annexation of South-Eastern Ukraine, so the bulk of the sanctions remain permanently in place; Russia is made to rely on Chinese largesse for survival.
As the article says: “The war ended with the defeat of Sweden, leaving Russia as the new dominant power in the Baltic region and as a new major force in European politics.”
Note that Great Britain switched sides, and was on the Russian side in the final phase. As so often, if you dig deep enough, GB/UK has contributed to some dreadful shit.
As for your proposed end-state: I agree that could happen, but it would not be long-lasting. Either the sanctions against Russia slowly fall apart despite the partition, or Russia tries again to get the rest of Ukraine - perhaps through Belarus.
As we've seen, Putin doesn't need any excuse.
In fact, if you delve back into Russia’s early history, you could argue that they were a Nordic/Viking invention. Look at the etymology of “Rus”.
Understandably, people in the Atlantic islands tend to be preoccupied with the Danish and Norwegian Viking exploits westwards, but the Swedish history into the deep east and south, all the way to Kiev and Constantinople is just as astonishing. They shaped the nascent Kiev and Rus identities.
Inflation is being driven primarily by external factors, not by put upon workers on low and middle incomes asking to be paid a reasonable rate - its use by the Government to justify yet more shit wage settlements (whilst simultaneously insisting that bumper payouts for oldies are absolutely fine) is a laughably transparent justification for straightforward meanness. To put it succinctly, they want to force staff in hospitals and schools into using food banks, so that they don't have to contemplate asking the wealthy to part with more of their loot to cover decent wage rises. It's as simple as that.
I also expect that there will be a lot of equipment and training for Ukraine's armed forces in that scenario. It's not implausible that a resumption of hostilities would occur once Ukraine was confident of achieving air superiority, and we'd see something like what happened when Croatia reclaimed territory occupied by the Serbs in the 90s.
Inflation rate is 9.1%
I'm not sure Boris Johnson will mind. He's hellbent on wargaming.
There will be a reckoning for this. Working people are sick of being taken for fools.
“the fourth estate in Scotland to be handed a restriction on licences.”
https://news.stv.tv/highlands-islands/moy-estate-in-highlands-has-general-licences-suspended-for-three-year-after-evidence-of-wildlife-crime
Now, let’s force the toffs to eradicate Rhododendron ponticum. That won’t be cheap.
"Well this is going well."
https://news.sky.com/story/inflation-hits-fresh-40-year-high-amid-cost-of-living-crisis-12638030
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Swedish_Crusade
The last train left an hour ago..
Announce another huge rise in State Pensions and Benefits.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Varangians
It seems we routinely underestimate the amount of trade there was around Europe even in ancient times. Whilst Jesus reaching our green and pleasant land is a little bit of a stretch, AIUI there are indications there was a healthy trade in tin back from the southwest back into the Bronze Age.
Or gold from Cornwall to Ireland:
https://digventures.com/2015/06/was-there-a-bronze-age-gold-rush-in-cornwall/
The online ticketing system is also riven with faults, including frequently more expensive tickets unless you really know your onions about circumventing it.
Beeching also justified his cuts. The knock-on was the death of many rural communities and industries.
Incidentally, I note that Stockholm has now even removed the final ticket machines on the Metro. Ticketing is now 100% online, or simple card blipping.
Cash is pretty much non-existent in Scandinavian society now, at least for those of working-age or younger. This really confused a group of elderly German tourists I spoke to last month. They just looked at me uncomprehendingly when I explained how we purchase goods and services.
No, we don’t generally accept Euros. Heck, we don’t even generally accept Kronor.
No, there is no Bureau de Change.
No, that bank doesn’t hold any cash, it’s just an office for booked appointments for customers.
The poor souls didn’t even have credit or debit cards on them.
I feel genuinely sorry for the elderly. So many are just bewildered by how fast society is changing.
I don’t believe our children have ever personally made a financial transaction in cash. Not that I’ve ever witnessed anyway.
Lines that are still loved, but were economic basket-cases.
The world changes. Ticket offices prove useful to me on occasion, but their closure will not affect me or my travel that much.
(*) Note: the much-loved Matlock to Buxton line - part of the Midland's route to Manchester - was not mentioned in the Beeching Cuts. But they closed it anyway because of internal railway politics... And thanks to Labour's Barbara Castle...
It's a grim dystopian utilitarian landscape compared with a vision of good sense and protecting all people. Yes it means a little less 'me me me': you yourself said it: it will not affect ME or MY. Many of us during the pandemic recalibrated our lives.
Your kind of selfishness and self-centredness is part of what is plunging this country down the plughole.
Karma bites and when it does it bites hard.
(This is where @Richard_Tyndall comes along and gives us chapter and verse...)
Many Russian serfs died in the construction, as well as Swedish prisoners. All those lovely canals are the result.
https://lp.betbull.com/faqs/
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/betbull-customers-urged-to-withdraw-funds-as-firm-announce-july-3-closure/563912
It's the same capitalist mantra which has always put profit above people.
And on that note I shall bid you all a nice day. Look out for your fellow human beings.
xx
(Barring nuclear war of course, but then let’s face it, we’re all fucked.)
And good morning to one and all!
I posted here at the time how I thought national currencies were obsolete, as with contactless payments does it really mater if the purchase was in SKR, £ or €?
I am off to Germany for a medical conference later this year, shall see if I need cash at all. The only time I use cash at the moment seems to be contributing to retirement/leaving/baby collections at work.
As for trade routes: someone on here linked to the following a while back: basically a route map/planner for the Roman empire. A good way of losing an hour or two. And yes, sea routes were much faster.
https://orbis.stanford.edu/
The decline of cash is a bad thing.
The invention benefited everyone, but the elimination makes it easier to track people, easier to surreptitiously tax them, and easier to steal from them (you notice if you lose a note from a wallet. But if your balance declines by the same amount with no warning sign, would you?). If your bank or phone is on the blink then paying can become impossible, even though you have the funds.
I'm not opposed to using other methods, but the elimination of cash would be a very bad thing indeed.
I laugh when people say how “remote” the Hebrides or Northern Isles are. Err… yes… if you look at modern roads or railways. But in the post-Roman world places like these, and Cornwall, Sicily, Crete, Kiev and Gdansk were the easier bits of the continent to trade with. They were hubs, not backwaters
And I cannot speak for other people (obvs.), but for me, losing them would not be a major issue.
I use Trainline, and it is bloody brilliant.
From Constantinople to Cornwall (Padstow, Cornwall) | S15E10 | Time Team
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qz6qQS3LL8k
There is an accompanying commentary video at
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5gyxDkSmpo
ETA not sure if it is the episode you have in mind but Tony Robinson introduces the dig with Turkish and African pottery. There might also be some flint knapping by one of @Leon's Cornish ancestors.
Is there a term for fear of technology? If so, it seems to be rife.