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It’s a 73% betting chance that Johnson will survive the year – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 18 in General
imageIt’s a 73% betting chance that Johnson will survive the year – politicalbetting.com

I’d like this betting orchid because it is pretty straightforward and simply asked who will be Prime Minister on New Year’s Day 2023. As can be seen Johnson has made quite a recovery since earlier in the year when his position looked more doubtful.

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,036
    First.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,653
    Sunak is the value bet there i reckon.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,945
    With rumours of an October election it might be worth a punt on Starmer.
    I make an election 10%. With at least a 40% chance of him coming out of it in Downing Street. Assuming he's still around.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,617
    What if there is an election on 27 October??
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,945
    Oh. And "keeping the margins down", shows how masterful the expectations management has been.
    T+H by one vote would be a dismal showing. And Boris is supposed to have a unique connection with the Red Wall. Doesn't he?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,840
    Dethreaded.

    Evening all.

    Champagne / prosecco stopper report.

    I bought one of these: https://www.amazon.co.uk/AdHoc-FV35-Stopper-Champagne-Silicone/dp/B00C5SYN6W/

    ... because it adds less height to the bottle wrt fridge door space.

    Seems to work well over 2-3 days - the bottle 'pops' when reopened. But un/re-corking only works a couple of times, and seems better done just the once. And no sharp edges.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,873

    Sunak is the value bet there i reckon.

    It won't be Sunak.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,708
    Sir Keir Starmer is planning for his own succession and has told candidates vying to replace him to be ready to fight for the leadership if he is forced to quit over claims that he broke Covid rules.

    The Labour leader has told allies he wants plans in place to ensure that his work rebuilding the party will not be at risk if he is suddenly forced to resign. He has promised to quit if Durham police find he broke lockdown rules when he had beer and curry with staff after a day campaigning in the local elections on April 30 last year.

    He told friends: “I will not let this party become a basket case again. I will not let our hard-won gains be squandered so we will need to be ready in the unlikely event that the worst comes to the worst.”

    It is understood he has since met a number of members of his shadow cabinet with leadership ambitions and has urged them to put campaign teams in place.

    Wes Streeting and Lisa Nandy have made no secret of their ambitions and are believed to be among the candidates to have received Starmer’s endorsement.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-prepares-for-the-worst-as-challengers-eye-up-his-job-36fqdzbhm
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,177
    MattW said:

    Dethreaded.

    Evening all.

    Champagne / prosecco stopper report.

    I bought one of these: https://www.amazon.co.uk/AdHoc-FV35-Stopper-Champagne-Silicone/dp/B00C5SYN6W/

    ... because it adds less height to the bottle wrt fridge door space.

    Seems to work well over 2-3 days - the bottle 'pops' when reopened. But un/re-corking only works a couple of times, and seems better done just the once. And no sharp edges.

    Our experience, too! Saves overnight for celebratory breakfasts!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 16,562

    Sir Keir Starmer is planning for his own succession and has told candidates vying to replace him to be ready to fight for the leadership if he is forced to quit over claims that he broke Covid rules.

    The Labour leader has told allies he wants plans in place to ensure that his work rebuilding the party will not be at risk if he is suddenly forced to resign. He has promised to quit if Durham police find he broke lockdown rules when he had beer and curry with staff after a day campaigning in the local elections on April 30 last year.

    He told friends: “I will not let this party become a basket case again. I will not let our hard-won gains be squandered so we will need to be ready in the unlikely event that the worst comes to the worst.”

    It is understood he has since met a number of members of his shadow cabinet with leadership ambitions and has urged them to put campaign teams in place.

    Wes Streeting and Lisa Nandy have made no secret of their ambitions and are believed to be among the candidates to have received Starmer’s endorsement.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-prepares-for-the-worst-as-challengers-eye-up-his-job-36fqdzbhm

    While I’m not a Starmer fan, the contrast with Johnson in his willingness to put a greater good ahead of his own personal interest is palpable.
    He does have a very strange way of addressing his friends though, it must be said.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,004

    Sunak is the value bet there i reckon.

    Sunak is the value bet there i reckon.

    Johnson has an October election and loses his sea? Genius from big dog
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANirM3s2JpQ

    Blair and Brown available here. Well worth a watch.

    It strikes me that Brown had the ideas but was unable or incapable of implementing them himself. Without a Blair I remain sceptical Labour would have ever won again.

    What this documentary does pose is the idea that Labour cannot exist in the past, it must and only can win if it embodies the future.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,498
    As BJ had the story removed from the 2nd edition and removed from the website, here is the Times exclusive that Johnson has been a corrupt bastard for years.

    Trying to install his mistress as his chief of staff? Massive ethical conflict of interest? Naah - who needs morals and ethics if you are the FLSOJ?

    https://twitter.com/soniapurnell/status/1538155978075553792
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,653

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANirM3s2JpQ

    Blair and Brown available here. Well worth a watch.

    It strikes me that Brown had the ideas but was unable or incapable of implementing them himself. Without a Blair I remain sceptical Labour would have ever won again.

    What this documentary does pose is the idea that Labour cannot exist in the past, it must and only can win if it embodies the future.

    Indeed. Wilson won by talking about the future.

    No sign whatsoever that Starmer's Labour is talking the kind of language that wins power.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,945

    Sir Keir Starmer is planning for his own succession and has told candidates vying to replace him to be ready to fight for the leadership if he is forced to quit over claims that he broke Covid rules.

    The Labour leader has told allies he wants plans in place to ensure that his work rebuilding the party will not be at risk if he is suddenly forced to resign. He has promised to quit if Durham police find he broke lockdown rules when he had beer and curry with staff after a day campaigning in the local elections on April 30 last year.

    He told friends: “I will not let this party become a basket case again. I will not let our hard-won gains be squandered so we will need to be ready in the unlikely event that the worst comes to the worst.”

    It is understood he has since met a number of members of his shadow cabinet with leadership ambitions and has urged them to put campaign teams in place.

    Wes Streeting and Lisa Nandy have made no secret of their ambitions and are believed to be among the candidates to have received Starmer’s endorsement.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-prepares-for-the-worst-as-challengers-eye-up-his-job-36fqdzbhm

    While I’m not a Starmer fan, the contrast with Johnson in his willingness to put a greater good ahead of his own personal interest is palpable.
    It's the lowest of bars.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,878

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANirM3s2JpQ

    Blair and Brown available here. Well worth a watch.

    It strikes me that Brown had the ideas but was unable or incapable of implementing them himself. Without a Blair I remain sceptical Labour would have ever won again.

    What this documentary does pose is the idea that Labour cannot exist in the past, it must and only can win if it embodies the future.

    Think Smith would have won but not by such a big margin.
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANirM3s2JpQ

    Blair and Brown available here. Well worth a watch.

    It strikes me that Brown had the ideas but was unable or incapable of implementing them himself. Without a Blair I remain sceptical Labour would have ever won again.

    What this documentary does pose is the idea that Labour cannot exist in the past, it must and only can win if it embodies the future.

    Indeed. Wilson won by talking about the future.

    No sign whatsoever that Starmer's Labour is talking the kind of language that wins power.
    The question is, is one more heave enough. I see Starmer currently as more of a John Smith character.

    Smith of course, never got a try. But Starmer might.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,653

    Sir Keir Starmer is planning for his own succession and has told candidates vying to replace him to be ready to fight for the leadership if he is forced to quit over claims that he broke Covid rules.

    The Labour leader has told allies he wants plans in place to ensure that his work rebuilding the party will not be at risk if he is suddenly forced to resign. He has promised to quit if Durham police find he broke lockdown rules when he had beer and curry with staff after a day campaigning in the local elections on April 30 last year.

    He told friends: “I will not let this party become a basket case again. I will not let our hard-won gains be squandered so we will need to be ready in the unlikely event that the worst comes to the worst.”

    It is understood he has since met a number of members of his shadow cabinet with leadership ambitions and has urged them to put campaign teams in place.

    Wes Streeting and Lisa Nandy have made no secret of their ambitions and are believed to be among the candidates to have received Starmer’s endorsement.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-prepares-for-the-worst-as-challengers-eye-up-his-job-36fqdzbhm

    While I’m not a Starmer fan, the contrast with Johnson in his willingness to put a greater good ahead of his own personal interest is palpable.
    He's clearly a decent, well-meaning bloke, but does he have what it takes in the cauldron of politics at the very top?

    I'm not sure.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,653

    Sunak is the value bet there i reckon.

    It won't be Sunak.
    3% is way too low for Sunak imho.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,397
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1538107417447354368

    Not saying we’ve time travelled to the 1970s but inflation is going through the roof, there’s a heatwave, Russia and the West are at loggerheads and *Kate Bush* is top of the charts

    Add to this a probable tidal wave of public sector strike action, an energy crisis and ABBA playing to sell out crowds in London, and I think he may be on to something.

    What other Seventies stuff are we hoping will make a comeback?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,653
    MattW said:

    Dethreaded.

    Evening all.

    Champagne / prosecco stopper report.

    I bought one of these: https://www.amazon.co.uk/AdHoc-FV35-Stopper-Champagne-Silicone/dp/B00C5SYN6W/

    ... because it adds less height to the bottle wrt fridge door space.

    Seems to work well over 2-3 days - the bottle 'pops' when reopened. But un/re-corking only works a couple of times, and seems better done just the once. And no sharp edges.

    Only PB provides this kind of essential advice on the important issues of the day.

    Now on my Amazon List!

  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,476
    pigeon said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1538107417447354368

    Not saying we’ve time travelled to the 1970s but inflation is going through the roof, there’s a heatwave, Russia and the West are at loggerheads and *Kate Bush* is top of the charts

    Add to this a probable tidal wave of public sector strike action, an energy crisis and ABBA playing to sell out crowds in London, and I think he may be on to something.

    What other Seventies stuff are we hoping will make a comeback?

    Forrest dominating the top flight and then Europe
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,307
    I’m
    kinabalu said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANirM3s2JpQ

    Blair and Brown available here. Well worth a watch.

    It strikes me that Brown had the ideas but was unable or incapable of implementing them himself. Without a Blair I remain sceptical Labour would have ever won again.

    What this documentary does pose is the idea that Labour cannot exist in the past, it must and only can win if it embodies the future.

    Think Smith would have won but not by such a big margin.
    He would have won, quite definitely. I’m not even sure the margin would have been that much less.
  • I’m

    kinabalu said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANirM3s2JpQ

    Blair and Brown available here. Well worth a watch.

    It strikes me that Brown had the ideas but was unable or incapable of implementing them himself. Without a Blair I remain sceptical Labour would have ever won again.

    What this documentary does pose is the idea that Labour cannot exist in the past, it must and only can win if it embodies the future.

    Think Smith would have won but not by such a big margin.
    He would have won, quite definitely. I’m not even sure the margin would have been that much less.
    Why do we not have more confidence in Starmer's ability then, is it the polls? I think Starmer and Smith have great, great parallels
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,004
    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,498

    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating

    Futile and stupid. Unionists will just boycott it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,653
    "...listen to what Ellsberg, now 91, has to say about Assange: ‘If he is extradited, then journalists anywhere in the world could be extradited to the U.S. for exposing classified information.’ "

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10928491/ANDREW-NEIL-Julian-Assange-reckless-stupid-narcissist-not-extradited.html

    Andrew Neil comes out in support of Assange.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,444

    I’m

    kinabalu said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANirM3s2JpQ

    Blair and Brown available here. Well worth a watch.

    It strikes me that Brown had the ideas but was unable or incapable of implementing them himself. Without a Blair I remain sceptical Labour would have ever won again.

    What this documentary does pose is the idea that Labour cannot exist in the past, it must and only can win if it embodies the future.

    Think Smith would have won but not by such a big margin.
    He would have won, quite definitely. I’m not even sure the margin would have been that much less.
    Blair didn't gain that many more votes between 1997 and 1992 as Kinnock did between 1992 and 1987. It was the collapse in the Tory vote that created the landslide.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,383

    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating

    Futile and stupid. Unionists will just boycott it.
    See the Catalonia Independence Referendum of 2017, which was a similar wildcat referendum.

    Unionists boycotted it, resulting in 92% in favour of independence on a 43% turnout.

    The consequence of this was... nothing. There was no UDI. Catalonia is still a part of Spain. And this despite the Spanish government behaving rather stupidly.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 16,562
    pigeon said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1538107417447354368

    Not saying we’ve time travelled to the 1970s but inflation is going through the roof, there’s a heatwave, Russia and the West are at loggerheads and *Kate Bush* is top of the charts

    Add to this a probable tidal wave of public sector strike action, an energy crisis and ABBA playing to sell out crowds in London, and I think he may be on to something.

    What other Seventies stuff are we hoping will make a comeback?

    I wasn't alive, but: The Good Life, old fashioned chocolate spread, Jenny Agutter, and ELO for me please.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,653

    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating

    Futile and stupid. Unionists will just boycott it.
    She wont do it. It is all talk for internal reasons.

  • I’m

    kinabalu said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANirM3s2JpQ

    Blair and Brown available here. Well worth a watch.

    It strikes me that Brown had the ideas but was unable or incapable of implementing them himself. Without a Blair I remain sceptical Labour would have ever won again.

    What this documentary does pose is the idea that Labour cannot exist in the past, it must and only can win if it embodies the future.

    Think Smith would have won but not by such a big margin.
    He would have won, quite definitely. I’m not even sure the margin would have been that much less.
    Blair didn't gain that many more votes between 1997 and 1992 as Kinnock did between 1992 and 1987. It was the collapse in the Tory vote that created the landslide.
    But that is precisely what we are seeing now.

    To me any leads that gets Labour to around 43% is basically hitting the ceiling. It is then the Tory vote that does the work. In a sense, Smith, Blair and Starmer have/would all do that (well maybe)
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,354
    pigeon said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1538107417447354368

    Not saying we’ve time travelled to the 1970s but inflation is going through the roof, there’s a heatwave, Russia and the West are at loggerheads and *Kate Bush* is top of the charts

    Add to this a probable tidal wave of public sector strike action, an energy crisis and ABBA playing to sell out crowds in London, and I think he may be on to something.

    What other Seventies stuff are we hoping will make a comeback?

    The three-day working week is now happening at home.

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,397
    A wave of 1970s-style economic unrest is threatening to spread from the railways across the public services, as unions representing teachers and NHS workers warn of potential industrial action over pay.

    With the country preparing for rail strikes on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday which will see half the network shut down, the biggest teaching union, the National Education Union (NEU), told the Observer that unless it receives a pay offer much closer to inflation by Wednesday, it will be informing education secretary Nadhim Zahawi of its plan to ballot its 450,000 members. The move could lead to strikes in schools in England in the autumn, the union said.

    Another flashpoint could come this week when millions of NHS workers up to senior nurse level receive their annual pay offer, which is expected to fall substantially short of inflation, currently running at 9.2%.

    The country’s biggest union, Unison, representing NHS staff, said the government now faced a choice between offering a deal close to inflation or triggering a mass exodus of staff coupled with possible industrial action in hospitals, at a time when they are already hugely overburdened.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/18/strike-chaoes-teachers-nhs-staff-action-pay-rail-unions

    In short: they're mad as Hell, and they're not going to take this anymore. Probably.

    It's no wonder the Government is so desperate to talk down the rail strike. If the RMT successfully extracts a decent deal, the risk for ministers is that the entire state workforce will insist on being treated likewise (and be prepared to dig in until they get what they want.) That, amongst other things, will mean furious parents having to eat up their annual leave to do kiddie care, and the end of any immediate prospect of getting to grip with the vast NHS backlog.

    A quick Google brings up an IFS report claiming that the public sector wage bill in 2018-19, inclusive of pension contributions, was £190bn. Increasing public sector pay by 10% across the board would therefore cost somewhere in the region of £20bn per annum, or about half the defence budget.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,004
    edited June 18
    Pressure must be considerable on Sturgeon, though. Unless she wants to head off into the sunset
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,873

    Sunak is the value bet there i reckon.

    It won't be Sunak.
    rcs1000 said:

    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating

    Futile and stupid. Unionists will just boycott it.
    See the Catalonia Independence Referendum of 2017, which was a similar wildcat referendum.

    Unionists boycotted it, resulting in 92% in favour of independence on a 43% turnout.

    The consequence of this was... nothing. There was no UDI. Catalonia is still a part of Spain. And this despite the Spanish government behaving rather stupidly.
    I suspect she knows this but feels she has to do something to placate her base.

    It's the reason for being of the SNP.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,653

    pigeon said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1538107417447354368

    Not saying we’ve time travelled to the 1970s but inflation is going through the roof, there’s a heatwave, Russia and the West are at loggerheads and *Kate Bush* is top of the charts

    Add to this a probable tidal wave of public sector strike action, an energy crisis and ABBA playing to sell out crowds in London, and I think he may be on to something.

    What other Seventies stuff are we hoping will make a comeback?

    Forrest dominating the top flight and then Europe
    By the end of that summer, there was a Minister for Drought.

    Who would Johnson appoint to this position if this happens in 2022?

    (* as I write it is pissing down in the boondocks of the midlands)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,028

    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating

    Futile and stupid. Unionists will just boycott it.
    How would it even work, mechanically and financially? Non-SNP authorities, starting with the Lab-Lib-Con Edinburgh City Council, wouldn’t co-operate.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,475
    edited June 18

    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating

    Futile and stupid. Unionists will just boycott it.
    She wont do it. It is all talk for internal reasons.

    I can always rely on PB for insight into Sturgeon's real motivations.

    Anyway, someone who knows stuff.


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,873

    I’m

    kinabalu said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANirM3s2JpQ

    Blair and Brown available here. Well worth a watch.

    It strikes me that Brown had the ideas but was unable or incapable of implementing them himself. Without a Blair I remain sceptical Labour would have ever won again.

    What this documentary does pose is the idea that Labour cannot exist in the past, it must and only can win if it embodies the future.

    Think Smith would have won but not by such a big margin.
    He would have won, quite definitely. I’m not even sure the margin would have been that much less.
    Blair didn't gain that many more votes between 1997 and 1992 as Kinnock did between 1992 and 1987. It was the collapse in the Tory vote that created the landslide.
    Blair did get them in middle England seats though where John Smith/Kinnock would have struggled.

    He was the difference between Labour getting 340-350 seats in 1997 and 410-420.

    I'm still utterly amazed he managed to win that many. Extraordinary.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 19,419
    edited June 18
    Frankly I have always believed, if you do not agree that Tony Blair is the finest Labour politician of the last fifty years then you should resign your membership immediately. If a party cannot win power and change the country, then what is the point?

    We must always aspire to more. We, can be more.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,769

    Frankly I have always believed, if you do not agree that Tony Blair is the finest Labour politician of the last fifty years then you should resign your membership immediately. If a party cannot win power and change the country, then what is the point?

    Barf.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,012

    What if there is an election on 27 October??

    How can that happen? Let us count the ways.

    Possibility One: The Conservatives think they can win then.
    Since they're behind now, and the economy will look even more shot by the autumn, they can only think that if they are at Berlin Bunker 1945 levels of delusion.

    Possibility Two: The Conservatives know they will lose then.
    Crazy, but hear me out. It means that a Coalition of Chaos has to do all the really painful stuff. The Conservatives would have a decent shot at winning in 2027. And a defeat in 2022 would be smaller than in 2024. And it might get rid of Boris. (Though Churchill didn't let defeats in 1945 and 1950 stop him.)

    Possibility Three: It's noise to protect Big Dog.
    Of course it's that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,653

    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating

    Futile and stupid. Unionists will just boycott it.
    She wont do it. It is all talk for internal reasons.

    I can always rely on PB for insight into Sturgeon's real motivations.

    Anyway, someone who knows stuff.


    Let's see what 2023 brings then.
  • Frankly I have always believed, if you do not agree that Tony Blair is the finest Labour politician of the last fifty years then you should resign your membership immediately. If a party cannot win power and change the country, then what is the point?

    Barf.
    We must always route ourselves, in the ability to win.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,004

    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating

    Futile and stupid. Unionists will just boycott it.
    She wont do it. It is all talk for internal reasons.

    I can always rely on PB for insight into Sturgeon's real motivations.

    Anyway, someone who knows stuff.


    Let's see what 2023 brings then.
    I mean, Sturgeon could release that legal advice she’s received about the legality of a referendum/ legislation. I believe this remains illusions despite being told to release it
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    edited June 18

    I’m

    kinabalu said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANirM3s2JpQ

    Blair and Brown available here. Well worth a watch.

    It strikes me that Brown had the ideas but was unable or incapable of implementing them himself. Without a Blair I remain sceptical Labour would have ever won again.

    What this documentary does pose is the idea that Labour cannot exist in the past, it must and only can win if it embodies the future.

    Think Smith would have won but not by such a big margin.
    He would have won, quite definitely. I’m not even sure the margin would have been that much less.
    Why do we not have more confidence in Starmer's ability then, is it the polls? I think Starmer and Smith have great, great parallels
    Good evening CHB and all.

    In lots of ways I preferred John Smith to Tony Blair.

    I know, I know. Anthony 'call me Tony' Blair had all that schmooooooze and coooool Britannia and he was telegenic and handsome and well spoken and smarmy and charmy and ... well you get where I'm coming from. Personally I always thought he was more style than substance. If you listen to his mellifluous speeches there's really no deep content behind them.

    However, I do think he had a mostly fairly genuine Christian social democratic ethos and that ran through most of his policies, at least up until he went to war.

    He was a great prime minister because he put Britain at ease ... and he could afford to largely thanks to inheriting the most fantastic economic conditions imaginable.

    I'm waffling but I was never fond of Blair but I didn't hate him. Not like I hate Boris Johnson. What I particularly hate about Johnson is his shameless, grotesque, lack of principles. He cares about only one thing: himself. And he will sacrifice anyone or anything for his own end.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,397
    Sandpit said:

    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating

    Futile and stupid. Unionists will just boycott it.
    How would it even work, mechanically and financially? Non-SNP authorities, starting with the Lab-Lib-Con Edinburgh City Council, wouldn’t co-operate.
    IANAE, but one assumes that the Scottish Parliament could legislate to compel them to do so? Unless Westminster decides to intervene first and amend the Scotland Act to explicitly reserve the right to hold plebiscites - although, on balance, you'd think the more productive tactic would be a Unionist boycott.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,475
    edited June 18

    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating

    Futile and stupid. Unionists will just boycott it.
    She wont do it. It is all talk for internal reasons.

    I can always rely on PB for insight into Sturgeon's real motivations.

    Anyway, someone who knows stuff.


    Let's see what 2023 brings then.
    I mean, Sturgeon could release that legal advice she’s received about the legality of a referendum/ legislation. I believe this remains illusions despite being told to release it
    It was released you dumpling!

    'SNP ministers forced to release Indyref2 legal advice'

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20193481.snp-ministers-forced-release-indyref2-legal-advice/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,708
    edited June 18

    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating

    Futile and stupid. Unionists will just boycott it.
    She wont do it. It is all talk for internal reasons.

    I can always rely on PB for insight into Sturgeon's real motivations.

    Anyway, someone who knows stuff.


    She's also said this earlier on this week.

    Aileen McHarg, professor of public law and human rights at Durham University, said that the UK government could legally block a referendum and that the Scottish government did not have the power to achieve independence unilaterally.
  • You see Boris Johnson wouldn't have gone to war in Iraq. Because it wasn't about Boris Johnson.

    Now that is why Tony Blair is more of a man than Boris Johnson.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,444

    Frankly I have always believed, if you do not agree that Tony Blair is the finest Labour politician of the last fifty years then you should resign your membership immediately. If a party cannot win power and change the country, then what is the point?

    We must always aspire to more. We, can be more.

    Rise together to the challenge because new Labour cannot create new Britain alone. I challenge this country, my country. Let us rouse ourselves to a new moral purpose for our nation to build a new and young country that can lay aside all the prejudices that have dominated our land for generations, a nation for all the people, built by all the people, old divisions cast out, a new spirit in the nation, working together in unity, solidarity, partnership - one Britain.

    New Labour, new Britain, the party renewed, the country reborn. New Labour. New Britain.


    http://www.britishpoliticalspeech.org/speech-archive.htm?speech=201
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,769

    You see Boris Johnson wouldn't have gone to war in Iraq. Because it wasn't about Boris Johnson.

    Now that is why Tony Blair is more of a man than Boris Johnson.

    Barf.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    edited June 18

    Frankly I have always believed, if you do not agree that Tony Blair is the finest Labour politician of the last fifty years then you should resign your membership immediately.

    Bit strong that, CHB?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,708

    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating

    Futile and stupid. Unionists will just boycott it.
    She wont do it. It is all talk for internal reasons.

    I can always rely on PB for insight into Sturgeon's real motivations.

    Anyway, someone who knows stuff.


    Let's see what 2023 brings then.
    I mean, Sturgeon could release that legal advice she’s received about the legality of a referendum/ legislation. I believe this remains illusions despite being told to release it
    It was released you dumpling!

    'SNP ministers forced to release Indyref2 legal advice'

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20193481.snp-ministers-forced-release-indyref2-legal-advice/
    The Scottish Government employ some pretty dense lawyers if they don't have the legal and political imagination God gave pistachio nuts.

    But it conspicuously does not cover whether government lawyers thought it would be legal to introduce Indyref2 legislation at Holyrood or hold a vote without Wesminster’s consent.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,397

    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating

    Futile and stupid. Unionists will just boycott it.
    She wont do it. It is all talk for internal reasons.

    I can always rely on PB for insight into Sturgeon's real motivations.

    Anyway, someone who knows stuff.


    Let's see what 2023 brings then.
    I mean, Sturgeon could release that legal advice she’s received about the legality of a referendum/ legislation. I believe this remains illusions despite being told to release it
    It was released you dumpling!

    'SNP ministers forced to release Indyref2 legal advice'

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20193481.snp-ministers-forced-release-indyref2-legal-advice/
    With a certain piece of vital information missing:

    The Scottish Government has published legal advice related to a second independence referendum after being compelled under freedom of information law.

    It shows that in 2020 ministers were told it would be legal to undertake policy development work on independence and ask the Electoral Commission to test the question on the ballot.

    But it conspicuously does not cover whether government lawyers thought it would be legal to introduce Indyref2 legislation at Holyrood or hold a vote without Westminster’s consent.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,004

    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating

    Futile and stupid. Unionists will just boycott it.
    She wont do it. It is all talk for internal reasons.

    I can always rely on PB for insight into Sturgeon's real motivations.

    Anyway, someone who knows stuff.


    Let's see what 2023 brings then.
    I mean, Sturgeon could release that legal advice she’s received about the legality of a referendum/ legislation. I believe this remains illusions despite being told to release it
    It was released you dumpling!

    'SNP ministers forced to release Indyref2 legal advice'

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20193481.snp-ministers-forced-release-indyref2-legal-advice/
    You know full well that relates to the development of “legislation to develop policy around one”

    “But it conspicuously does not cover whether government lawyers thought it would be legal to introduce Indyref2 legislation at Holyrood or hold a vote without Wesminster’s consent”

    ..which is exactly what we’d all want to know. Though I think a section 30 should be granted, in truth.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,028

    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating

    Futile and stupid. Unionists will just boycott it.
    She wont do it. It is all talk for internal reasons.

    I can always rely on PB for insight into Sturgeon's real motivations.

    Anyway, someone who knows stuff.


    Let's see what 2023 brings then.
    I mean, Sturgeon could release that legal advice she’s received about the legality of a referendum/ legislation. I believe this remains illusions despite being told to release it
    It was released you dumpling!

    'SNP ministers forced to release Indyref2 legal advice'

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20193481.snp-ministers-forced-release-indyref2-legal-advice/
    The SNP legal advice budget, seems to be up there with those for education and policing.
  • Heathener said:

    Frankly I have always believed, if you do not agree that Tony Blair is the finest Labour politician of the last fifty years then you should resign your membership immediately.

    Bit strong that, CHB.
    No it isn't. Because if you don't think the man who lead Labour to three victories in a row is the greatest Labour politician then it is clear, you do not want to win elections.

    I believed this under Brown, I believed it under Ed, I believed it under Corbyn.

    We must embrace and celebrate those years, the UK was good then. One day soon, we will get back to that.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    I think Tam Dalyell was a fine Labour politician.

    A brilliant mind and a fine politician who posed the West Lothian question and held Margaret Thatcher to account over the sinking of the Belgrano.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,708
    edited June 18
    Heathener said:

    I think Tam Dalyell was a fine Labour politician.

    A brilliant mind and a fine politician who posed the West Lothian question and held Margaret Thatcher to account over the sinking of the Belgrano.

    Tam Dalyell was a notorious antisemite.

    As for the sinking of The General Belgrano, let us listen to the views of the head of the Argentinian Navy.

    La Nación published a reader's letter from Admiral Enrique Molina Pico [es] (head of the Argentine Navy in the 1990s) in 2005 in which Molina Pico wrote that General Belgrano was part of an operation that posed a real threat to the British task force, but was holding off for tactical reasons.

    Molina Pico added that "To leave the exclusion zone was not to leave the combat zone to enter a protected area". Molina Pico explicitly stated that the sinking was not a war crime, but a combat action
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,475
    ..

    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating

    Futile and stupid. Unionists will just boycott it.
    She wont do it. It is all talk for internal reasons.

    I can always rely on PB for insight into Sturgeon's real motivations.

    Anyway, someone who knows stuff.


    Let's see what 2023 brings then.
    I mean, Sturgeon could release that legal advice she’s received about the legality of a referendum/ legislation. I believe this remains illusions despite being told to release it
    It was released you dumpling!

    'SNP ministers forced to release Indyref2 legal advice'

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20193481.snp-ministers-forced-release-indyref2-legal-advice/
    You know full well that relates to the development of “legislation to develop policy around one”

    “But it conspicuously does not cover whether government lawyers thought it would be legal to introduce Indyref2 legislation at Holyrood or hold a vote without Wesminster’s consent”

    ..which is exactly what we’d all want to know. Though I think a section 30 should be granted, in truth.
    They released the info they were asked to by the Information Commissioner. You should write an angry letter to The Scotsman and associated Unionist parties to get their finger out.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    edited June 18

    Heathener said:

    Frankly I have always believed, if you do not agree that Tony Blair is the finest Labour politician of the last fifty years then you should resign your membership immediately.

    Bit strong that, CHB.
    No it isn't. Because if you don't think the man who lead Labour to three victories in a row is the greatest Labour politician then it is clear, you do not want to win elections.
    You're being a bit OTT on this CHB to be honest, in your zeal in danger of elevating an election win above authenticity and core values.

    Blair was okay. A winner, certainly though as you yourself pointed out, John Smith would have won in 1997 anyway.

    He won but like a lot of politicians without principle, he became waylaid. Lost in a Metropolitan self-belief which directly contributed to the most disastrous decision ever taken in this county's modern history: Brexit. And a man so consumed by his own hubris that he led us into an illegal war.

    I marched against the war in Iraq and I'm proud that I did. It's called having principles. Something Blair lacked.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,718
    In the last 24 hours on PB:

    The United States will split. (yet again)

    There will be a general election this year. (yet again)

    Neither are going to happen.

    When will the PB Bedwetters ever learn?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,265
    geoffw said:

    pigeon said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1538107417447354368

    Not saying we’ve time travelled to the 1970s but inflation is going through the roof, there’s a heatwave, Russia and the West are at loggerheads and *Kate Bush* is top of the charts

    Add to this a probable tidal wave of public sector strike action, an energy crisis and ABBA playing to sell out crowds in London, and I think he may be on to something.

    What other Seventies stuff are we hoping will make a comeback?

    The three-day working week is now happening at home.

    The Conservatives will go into an election on the slogan "Who Governs Britain?"

    The public will respond "Not You".
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,873
    Heathener said:

    I’m

    kinabalu said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANirM3s2JpQ

    Blair and Brown available here. Well worth a watch.

    It strikes me that Brown had the ideas but was unable or incapable of implementing them himself. Without a Blair I remain sceptical Labour would have ever won again.

    What this documentary does pose is the idea that Labour cannot exist in the past, it must and only can win if it embodies the future.

    Think Smith would have won but not by such a big margin.
    He would have won, quite definitely. I’m not even sure the margin would have been that much less.
    Why do we not have more confidence in Starmer's ability then, is it the polls? I think Starmer and Smith have great, great parallels
    Good evening CHB and all.

    In lots of ways I preferred John Smith to Tony Blair.

    I know, I know. Anthony 'call me Tony' Blair had all that schmooooooze and coooool Britannia and he was telegenic and handsome and well spoken and smarmy and charmy and ... well you get where I'm coming from. Personally I always thought he was more style than substance. If you listen to his mellifluous speeches there's really no deep content behind them.

    However, I do think he had a mostly fairly genuine Christian social democratic ethos and that ran through most of his policies, at least up until he went to war.

    He was a great prime minister because he put Britain at ease ... and he could afford to largely thanks to inheriting the most fantastic economic conditions imaginable.

    I'm waffling but I was never fond of Blair but I didn't hate him. Not like I hate Boris Johnson. What I particularly hate about Johnson is his shameless, grotesque, lack of principles. He cares about only one thing: himself. And he will sacrifice anyone or anything for his own end.
    I've never trusted Boris since the Darius Guppy allegations were made public many years ago together with his many affairs.

    Never trust someone who displays that little integrity in their private life as being fit for high office because those values carry over.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,634

    Sir Keir Starmer is planning for his own succession and has told candidates vying to replace him to be ready to fight for the leadership if he is forced to quit over claims that he broke Covid rules.

    The Labour leader has told allies he wants plans in place to ensure that his work rebuilding the party will not be at risk if he is suddenly forced to resign. He has promised to quit if Durham police find he broke lockdown rules when he had beer and curry with staff after a day campaigning in the local elections on April 30 last year.

    He told friends: “I will not let this party become a basket case again. I will not let our hard-won gains be squandered so we will need to be ready in the unlikely event that the worst comes to the worst.”

    It is understood he has since met a number of members of his shadow cabinet with leadership ambitions and has urged them to put campaign teams in place.

    Wes Streeting and Lisa Nandy have made no secret of their ambitions and are believed to be among the candidates to have received Starmer’s endorsement.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-prepares-for-the-worst-as-challengers-eye-up-his-job-36fqdzbhm

    Despite the regular shitposting about this, I’m fairly sure both he and Rayner are sincere about quitting if they get FPNs.
    Rayner said explicitly in a recent radio interview that she would not run for either post if she had to resign. Because that would be taking the piss like Boris (I paraphrase slightly, but that was the gist).
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,397

    pigeon said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1538107417447354368

    Not saying we’ve time travelled to the 1970s but inflation is going through the roof, there’s a heatwave, Russia and the West are at loggerheads and *Kate Bush* is top of the charts

    Add to this a probable tidal wave of public sector strike action, an energy crisis and ABBA playing to sell out crowds in London, and I think he may be on to something.

    What other Seventies stuff are we hoping will make a comeback?

    Forrest dominating the top flight and then Europe
    By the end of that summer, there was a Minister for Drought.

    Who would Johnson appoint to this position if this happens in 2022?

    (* as I write it is pissing down in the boondocks of the midlands)
    Gavin Williamson has been on the backbenches for all of nine months now. A comeback is surely overdue?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    Anyway, at least on the plus side CHB's zeal over the desire to win above all shows that Labour are hungry for power once more.

    At any cost.

    I will remain cynical of politicians in power even if and when Labour are in government.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,945
    We'd have still had a Labour government under John Smith.
    Probably a different one, but we would have had it all the same.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,718

    pigeon said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1538107417447354368

    Not saying we’ve time travelled to the 1970s but inflation is going through the roof, there’s a heatwave, Russia and the West are at loggerheads and *Kate Bush* is top of the charts

    Add to this a probable tidal wave of public sector strike action, an energy crisis and ABBA playing to sell out crowds in London, and I think he may be on to something.

    What other Seventies stuff are we hoping will make a comeback?

    Forrest dominating the top flight and then Europe
    Forest (one r) but otherwise ‘like’
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156

    Heathener said:

    I think Tam Dalyell was a fine Labour politician.

    A brilliant mind and a fine politician who posed the West Lothian question and held Margaret Thatcher to account over the sinking of the Belgrano.

    Tam Dalyell was a notorious antisemite.

    I didn't know that
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,498

    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating

    Futile and stupid. Unionists will just boycott it.
    She wont do it. It is all talk for internal reasons.

    I can always rely on PB for insight into Sturgeon's real motivations.

    Anyway, someone who knows stuff.


    You know where I stand - there is a democratic mandate for a new referendum. But, there is no point holding an advisory vote. People will simply boycott it. Yes will win massively. And then nothing at all happens.

    Sturgeon made all the right points at her presser. Her government has a direct mandate for this referendum. So go on campaign mode to secure it. The Tories attacking democracy. Your vote is worthless. Go at it in England. Make the Tories look like the duplicitous shits they are.

    Because unless there is a Westminster-mandated referendum its all a waste of time. So make it politically a ball-ache to deny the will of the people.
  • Ominous signs from Team Starmer. Is his time up?

    Step forward Wes
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    edited June 18



    Step forward Wes

    Nope

    We need a female leader. Anyway what's this ominous thing about team Starmer?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,718
    edited June 18
    dixiedean said:

    We'd have still had a Labour government under John Smith.
    Probably a different one, but we would have had it all the same.

    Agreed. Smith would have won.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,708
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I think Tam Dalyell was a fine Labour politician.

    A brilliant mind and a fine politician who posed the West Lothian question and held Margaret Thatcher to account over the sinking of the Belgrano.

    Tam Dalyell was a notorious antisemite.

    I didn't know that
    Downing Street has attacked Labour MP Tam Dalyell after he complained of a "cabal of Jewish advisers" unduly influencing Tony Blair.

    Mr Dalyell made the remarks in an interview with Vanity Fair magazine, identifying Lord Levy, Tony Blair's Middle East envoy, Peter Mandelson, whose father is Jewish, and Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, who has Jewish ancestry, the Daily Telegraph reported....

    ...Mr Dalyell told the newspaper said he believed the prime minister was also indirectly influenced by Jewish people in the Bush administration, including Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and Ari Fleischer, the President's press secretary.

    Mr Blair was "very sympathetic" to them, he said.


    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2999219.stm
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,444

    Ominous signs from Team Starmer. Is his time up?

    Step forward Wes

    Who will be the candidate of the left? Could some MPs lend their votes to get Zarah Sultana on the ballot?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I think Tam Dalyell was a fine Labour politician.

    A brilliant mind and a fine politician who posed the West Lothian question and held Margaret Thatcher to account over the sinking of the Belgrano.

    Tam Dalyell was a notorious antisemite.

    I didn't know that
    Guess you're referring to the 'Jewish cabal' comment on the war but that was very Tam. He was always into conspiracy theories. He held those in power to account. Sometimes he was completely wrong. Sometimes spot on.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/26/tam-dalyell-obituary
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,945
    So long as Mike Yarwood doesn't get back on TV, I'm cool.
    (Yes. He's still alive).
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065

    Frankly I have always believed, if you do not agree that Tony Blair is the finest Labour politician of the last fifty years then you should resign your membership immediately. If a party cannot win power and change the country, then what is the point?

    We must always aspire to more. We, can be more.

    Rise together to the challenge because new Labour cannot create new Britain alone. I challenge this country, my country. Let us rouse ourselves to a new moral purpose for our nation to build a new and young country that can lay aside all the prejudices that have dominated our land for generations, a nation for all the people, built by all the people, old divisions cast out, a new spirit in the nation, working together in unity, solidarity, partnership - one Britain.

    New Labour, new Britain, the party renewed, the country reborn. New Labour. New Britain.


    http://www.britishpoliticalspeech.org/speech-archive.htm?speech=201
    Less than a decade later, he was taking disastrous policy decisions just because it would "rub the right's nose in diversity".
  • Heathener said:



    Step forward Wes

    Nope

    We need a female leader. Anyway what's this ominous thing about team Starmer?
    I am hearing some ominous things from inside, I am not sure he is as confident as he was that he will be cleared.

    We should choose the best leader for the job, clearly that is Wes.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,718
    You have to hand it to Sir Keir Royale, a man of honour. If he goes, he’ll do his best to secure the legacy and keep the Corbynites away from control of the party.

    I’m a Reeves man, but wonder if Phillipson sneaks in in an open contest?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,475

    NEW:

    Nicola Sturgeon is prepared to hold an ‘advisory referendum’ on Scottish independence in Autumn 2023 if the UK government refuses to grant an S30 order for an official referendum.

    This will be.. fascinating

    Futile and stupid. Unionists will just boycott it.
    She wont do it. It is all talk for internal reasons.

    I can always rely on PB for insight into Sturgeon's real motivations.

    Anyway, someone who knows stuff.


    You know where I stand - there is a democratic mandate for a new referendum. But, there is no point holding an advisory vote. People will simply boycott it. Yes will win massively. And then nothing at all happens.

    Sturgeon made all the right points at her presser. Her government has a direct mandate for this referendum. So go on campaign mode to secure it. The Tories attacking democracy. Your vote is worthless. Go at it in England. Make the Tories look like the duplicitous shits they are.

    Because unless there is a Westminster-mandated referendum its all a waste of time. So make it politically a ball-ache to deny the will of the people.
    I can remember a recent advisory vote that had consequences.
    Am I to gather that despite thinking that the SG has a democratic mandate to hold a referendum that you would still boycott it?
  • Keir Starmer leaves Labour in its best position since 1994.

    He will go down in history as the man who saved this great party from extinction. Something nobody thought possible in 2019, he did it in three years.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,312

    Keir Starmer leaves Labour in its best position since 1994.

    He will go down in history as the man who saved this great party from extinction. Something nobody thought possible in 2019, he did it in three years.

    Just over two, in fact.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I think Tam Dalyell was a fine Labour politician.

    A brilliant mind and a fine politician who posed the West Lothian question and held Margaret Thatcher to account over the sinking of the Belgrano.

    Tam Dalyell was a notorious antisemite.

    I didn't know that
    Downing Street has attacked Labour MP Tam Dalyell after he complained of a "cabal of Jewish advisers" unduly influencing Tony Blair.

    Mr Dalyell made the remarks in an interview with Vanity Fair magazine, identifying Lord Levy, Tony Blair's Middle East envoy, Peter Mandelson, whose father is Jewish, and Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, who has Jewish ancestry, the Daily Telegraph reported....

    ...Mr Dalyell told the newspaper said he believed the prime minister was also indirectly influenced by Jewish people in the Bush administration, including Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and Ari Fleischer, the President's press secretary.

    Mr Blair was "very sympathetic" to them, he said.


    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2999219.stm
    Yeah that's not really anti-semitic. Just very Tam - see my comment and link to obit.

    And it doesn't really justify the adjective 'notorious' which is hyperbole.

    But as I've called both Jeremy Corbyn and Ken Livingstone anti-Semites it's not a line I'd want to push.

    I liked Tam's scrutiny of the Belgrano sinking, on which I'm sure he was largely correct. And the West Lothian question which was super pertinent and which has never been answered to this day.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 625

    Ominous signs from Team Starmer. Is his time up?

    Step forward Wes



    A man of steadfastness and principle.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,945

    Keir Starmer leaves Labour in its best position since 1994.

    He will go down in history as the man who saved this great party from extinction. Something nobody thought possible in 2019, he did it in three years.

    Eh? It was in a better position right up to 2010.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    And I'll also admit that I really liked Michael Foot before he went senile in about 1832.

    He was very bright and was once a great parliamentarian. Something we have lost.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,708
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I think Tam Dalyell was a fine Labour politician.

    A brilliant mind and a fine politician who posed the West Lothian question and held Margaret Thatcher to account over the sinking of the Belgrano.

    Tam Dalyell was a notorious antisemite.

    I didn't know that
    Guess you're referring to the 'Jewish cabal' comment on the war but that was very Tam. He was always into conspiracy theories. He held those in power to account. Sometimes he was completely wrong. Sometimes spot on.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/26/tam-dalyell-obituary
    Bollocks, antisemitism is antisemitism.

    It's the same bollocks the Trumpers and some extreme Brexiteers use when it comes demonising George Soros.

    I'll put you down as someone who condones antisemitism.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,634

    Heathener said:

    I think Tam Dalyell was a fine Labour politician.

    A brilliant mind and a fine politician who posed the West Lothian question and held Margaret Thatcher to account over the sinking of the Belgrano.

    Tam Dalyell was a notorious antisemite.

    As for the sinking of The General Belgrano, let us listen to the views of the head of the Argentinian Navy.

    La Nación published a reader's letter from Admiral Enrique Molina Pico [es] (head of the Argentine Navy in the 1990s) in 2005 in which Molina Pico wrote that General Belgrano was part of an operation that posed a real threat to the British task force, but was holding off for tactical reasons.

    Molina Pico added that "To leave the exclusion zone was not to leave the combat zone to enter a protected area". Molina Pico explicitly stated that the sinking was not a war crime, but a combat action
    Thatcher was very stupid to lie about it, though.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,475
    dixiedean said:

    So long as Mike Yarwood doesn't get back on TV, I'm cool.
    (Yes. He's still alive).

    Indeed.
    Slightly sad pic


  • dixiedean said:

    Keir Starmer leaves Labour in its best position since 1994.

    He will go down in history as the man who saved this great party from extinction. Something nobody thought possible in 2019, he did it in three years.

    Eh? It was in a better position right up to 2010.
    Labour in 2010 was headed for defeat, this party is not.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,028
    carnforth said:

    Ominous signs from Team Starmer. Is his time up?

    Step forward Wes



    A man of steadfastness and principle.
    Politics fail 101 - failure to delete Tweets from your twenties.
  • Why does Gov think it's Labour's job to stop the strikes? Why don't they meet with the unions?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,708
    Sandpit said:

    carnforth said:

    Ominous signs from Team Starmer. Is his time up?

    Step forward Wes



    A man of steadfastness and principle.
    Politics fail 101 - failure to delete Tweets from your twenties.
    I reminded of the famous comment about Twitter my boy Dave (pbuh) said.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156

    Keir Starmer leaves Labour in its best position since 1994.

    He will go down in history as the man who saved this great party from extinction. Something nobody thought possible in 2019, he did it in three years.

    Wtf is this leaving Labour thing?

    If you're coming out with stuff like this can you please at least give us a link? I'm assuming it's on twitter or instagram or Only Fans or Love island or some chap you bumped into the other day called Bernard.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,945
    edited June 18

    dixiedean said:

    Keir Starmer leaves Labour in its best position since 1994.

    He will go down in history as the man who saved this great party from extinction. Something nobody thought possible in 2019, he did it in three years.

    Eh? It was in a better position right up to 2010.
    Labour in 2010 was headed for defeat, this party is not.
    But was in government. It's a better position to be in than opposition.
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