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Half of CON voters say Johnson behaves unerthically – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 20 in General
imageHalf of CON voters say Johnson behaves unerthically – politicalbetting.com

Normally questions like the above about a leading politician produce a fairly sharpish split between those who support the party of the person being assessed and those who don’t.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,690
    1 1 1
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,193
    Unerthically
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,045
    Celestially
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065

    Unerthically

    What are they goign to unerth next?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,387
    The 19% who think he’s ethical should be sterilized ! The country doesn’t need the gene pool further polluted with idiots .
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,897
    edited June 16
    ‘More and more, it seems to me, that he believes he can get away with just about anything’

    He can so long as his supine cabinet continue to support him.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,157
    edited June 16
    nico679 said:

    The 19% who think he’s ethical should be sterilized ! The country doesn’t need the gene pool further polluted with idiots .

    But as Mike hinted at, most of those 19% are people who want to support Boris Johnson, whatever the question is. So they don't think he is ethical at all, they are just lying.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,647
    Is this current Tory voters or 2019 Tory voters? If the latter, yes, they should worry.

    If the former, it should be encouraging for the Tories that half of their voters think he's unethical and clearly don't care.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,647
    kinabalu said:

    I'd like to see this alongside similar question with Johnson replaced by "politicians". We could then see how much of it is about him rather than the general attitude of the public to politicians.

    You also have to do "Tory politicians" and "Labour politicians". Because there is a tendency to conflate "the current government" with "politicians".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,634
    This will almost certainly go nowhere, but imagine reading this headline a decade ago.

    Elon Musk, SpaceX and Tesla are being sued for $258 billion over claims they are part of a racketeering scheme to back the cryptocurrency Dogecoin
    https://twitter.com/business/status/1537452050564489219
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 17,030
    nico679 said:

    The 19% who think he’s ethical should be sterilized ! The country doesn’t need the gene pool further polluted with idiots .

    Your comments are becoming very tedious.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,028
    nico679 said:

    The 19% who think he’s ethical should be sterilized ! The country doesn’t need the gene pool further polluted with idiots .

    Keep going. The idiots, deplorables and racists still have the vote.
  • kinabalu said:

    I'd like to see this alongside similar question with Johnson replaced by "politicians". We could then see how much of it is about him rather than the general attitude of the public to politicians.

    This is a good point.

    Like Trump, Johnson relies to a very significant degree on, "Yes, of course he's a sh1t, but they all are, and at least he's our sh1t".

    A significant part of ludicrous conspiracy theories around Pizzagate/QAnon, and heightened rhetoric over "the Swamp", was not that these things would be believed word for word (although some people clearly do) but to lower the bar for conduct generally in a way that is helpful for those who have extremely poor standards of behaviour.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,503
    Maybe just as well the Scots are looking to open a ferry service independent of Dover. This has just come up on the Graun feed:

    "Plans for a new inland border facility (IBF) in Dover will no longer go ahead, HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) has announced.

    It was hoped a new facility, located at a business park off the A2 in Kent, would see millions of pounds of investment in the area and create 400 jobs.

    However, HMRC has announced it will no longer go ahead with opening the site."
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,625
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 40% (-2)
    CON: 34% (+3)
    LDEM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 10 - 12 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 29 May

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1537465407224918017?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    LLG 54%, at the lower end of the recent range.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 16,562
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I would have paid good money to see Boycott watching this moment.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2022/jun/16/joe-root-and-jonny-bairstow-ignore-fixed-ideas-to-show-test-cricket-its-future
    ...In the Daily Telegraph the previous week Geoffrey Boycott explained to his readers that Root is a better batsman than his teammates because, unlike them, he “doesn’t play” Twenty20 cricket. “You never see Root play the scoop, ramp or any fancy shots,” Boycott wrote. “His technique is honed and has been from a young age to play proper cricket.” Now Southee is bowling just outside Root’s off stump, looking to take the ball away. It is only the second ball Root had faced that day. He could, probably should, leave it.

    Instead he spreads his feet so he was facing square down the wicket, switches the bat around in his hands and flicks the ball over the heads of the slips. For six...

    Geoffrey can always fall back on his favourite 'well that was such a poor ball my mother could have hit it for 4 with a stick of rhubarb'
    Bet she never ramped it for 6, though.
    Do you think that if equipped with rhubarb bats, the side would crumble?
    Don't be a fool.

    Are you entirely compôte mentis ?
    I am not sure I deserved such a tart response!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,625
    Westminster Voting Intention (15 June):

    Labour 42% (+3)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
    Green 4% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 12 June

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-40/

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1537465047714340868?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,830
    Royal Ascot — the Queen's good thing has been turned over. Burnt royal fingers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,028

    Macron is still fixated on the wrong analogy:

    Macron compared Russia-Ukraine war to World War I and Versailles treaty.

    100 years ago "France made a mistake and wanted to humiliate Germany," said French President, adding that Ukraine must be helped but "we should not make the mistakes that others have made in the past."


    https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1537461681915191297

    We should not make the mistakes that others have made in the past. We should arm the hell out of Ukraine, and keep arming them more until the Russians have fcuked off back to Russia.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,634

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I would have paid good money to see Boycott watching this moment.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2022/jun/16/joe-root-and-jonny-bairstow-ignore-fixed-ideas-to-show-test-cricket-its-future
    ...In the Daily Telegraph the previous week Geoffrey Boycott explained to his readers that Root is a better batsman than his teammates because, unlike them, he “doesn’t play” Twenty20 cricket. “You never see Root play the scoop, ramp or any fancy shots,” Boycott wrote. “His technique is honed and has been from a young age to play proper cricket.” Now Southee is bowling just outside Root’s off stump, looking to take the ball away. It is only the second ball Root had faced that day. He could, probably should, leave it.

    Instead he spreads his feet so he was facing square down the wicket, switches the bat around in his hands and flicks the ball over the heads of the slips. For six...

    Geoffrey can always fall back on his favourite 'well that was such a poor ball my mother could have hit it for 4 with a stick of rhubarb'
    Bet she never ramped it for 6, though.
    Do you think that if equipped with rhubarb bats, the side would crumble?
    Don't be a fool.

    Are you entirely compôte mentis ?
    I am not sure I deserved such a tart response!
    Just deserts...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,634
    Sandpit said:

    Macron is still fixated on the wrong analogy:

    Macron compared Russia-Ukraine war to World War I and Versailles treaty.

    100 years ago "France made a mistake and wanted to humiliate Germany," said French President, adding that Ukraine must be helped but "we should not make the mistakes that others have made in the past."


    https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1537461681915191297

    We should not make the mistakes that others have made in the past. We should arm the hell out of Ukraine, and keep arming them more until the Russians have fcuked off back to Russia.
    After that is the time for magnanimity, not before.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 16,562
    Sandpit said:

    Macron is still fixated on the wrong analogy:

    Macron compared Russia-Ukraine war to World War I and Versailles treaty.

    100 years ago "France made a mistake and wanted to humiliate Germany," said French President, adding that Ukraine must be helped but "we should not make the mistakes that others have made in the past."


    https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1537461681915191297

    We should not make the mistakes that others have made in the past. We should arm the hell out of Ukraine, and keep arming them more until the Russians have fcuked off back to Russia.
    We didn't do the same for the Greeks vs. the Turks, and we had greater strategic involvement there.
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I would have paid good money to see Boycott watching this moment.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2022/jun/16/joe-root-and-jonny-bairstow-ignore-fixed-ideas-to-show-test-cricket-its-future
    ...In the Daily Telegraph the previous week Geoffrey Boycott explained to his readers that Root is a better batsman than his teammates because, unlike them, he “doesn’t play” Twenty20 cricket. “You never see Root play the scoop, ramp or any fancy shots,” Boycott wrote. “His technique is honed and has been from a young age to play proper cricket.” Now Southee is bowling just outside Root’s off stump, looking to take the ball away. It is only the second ball Root had faced that day. He could, probably should, leave it.

    Instead he spreads his feet so he was facing square down the wicket, switches the bat around in his hands and flicks the ball over the heads of the slips. For six...

    Geoffrey can always fall back on his favourite 'well that was such a poor ball my mother could have hit it for 4 with a stick of rhubarb'
    Bet she never ramped it for 6, though.
    Do you think that if equipped with rhubarb bats, the side would crumble?
    Don't be a fool.

    Are you entirely compôte mentis ?
    I am not sure I deserved such a tart response!
    Just deserts...
    Sahara or Gobi?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,878

    kinabalu said:

    I'd like to see this alongside similar question with Johnson replaced by "politicians". We could then see how much of it is about him rather than the general attitude of the public to politicians.

    This is a good point.

    Like Trump, Johnson relies to a very significant degree on, "Yes, of course he's a sh1t, but they all are, and at least he's our sh1t".

    A significant part of ludicrous conspiracy theories around Pizzagate/QAnon, and heightened rhetoric over "the Swamp", was not that these things would be believed word for word (although some people clearly do) but to lower the bar for conduct generally in a way that is helpful for those who have extremely poor standards of behaviour.
    Yep. And there's this other thing, which makes me tremble with frustration when I hear it -

    "They're all reprobates but at least Boris doesn't pretend to be anything else. And you can see he's not being serious a lot of the time. It's refreshing."

    "I don't like how Trump talks sometimes but it's because he's not PC and speaks his mind. He's not really a politician. He's a businessman first and a chilled out entertainer second. It's refreshing."

    Thus is vice turned into virtue.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,591
    edited June 16
    A great clip on 5 o'clock radio News

    Michael Ellis Minster for the Cabinet Office "Of course the Prime Minister maintains the highest standards in public life"

    The Commons fell about!

    Evan Davis had to assure listeners the BBC hadn't added the laughter track.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,840
    edited June 16
    FPT:
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    Ghastly, if I knew I would be forced to rent out to doleys, I would never have become a landlord.

    Landlords will be forced to rent to people on benefits and reimburse tenants whose homes aren't up to scratch under new Government plans to overhaul the buy-to-let sector.

    In “the biggest shake-up of the private rented sector in 30 years”, landlords will have to repay rent to tenants if homes do not meet new minimum standards.

    Blanket bans on renting to tenants on benefits or to families with children will be outlawed according to the Fairer Private Rented Sector White Paper.

    The Government will also bring in its 2019 election manifesto promise to abolish Section 21 “no-fault” evictions into law in the proposed Renters Reform Bill. This will make it harder for landlords to gain repossession of their properties unless they can prove tenant wrongdoing.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buy-to-let/landlords-must-stop-no-fault-evictions-house-benefit-claimants/

    Watch rents rocket as landlords pull out of the market entirely rather than have bad tenants.

    There could be a big fire sale of property down the line as the attractiveness of buy to let pales.
    To be fair I quite like all of that, as a long-term tenant who has never had a problem with any of half a dozen landlords. Discriminating against people on benefits is simply a form of class discrimination, since actually the rent is better guaranteed than usual. Asking for a reference from a previous landlord would be a better protection against troublemakers.

    Some BTL landlords may sell out to property companies who do nothing else and do it well, and that's fine. Every other country that I've lived in has had a healthier rental market than Britain, where too many people see it as an unfortunate necessity to be avoided if possible, rather than a legitimate choice. I think it's weird that people want to tie up their savings and take a loan to live somewhere that they don't necessarily know how to maintain well - why not leave it to professionals and spend your money on enjoying life?
    Interesting that an ex-Labour MP doesn't know the answer.

    You *have to* invest in property. If you rent, you are buying a property for someone else. If you buy, you are being it for yourself.

    If you own, after you pay off the mortgage, you own the property outright. Which means that when you are retired, you have zero rental/mortage costs. No "rent man" to fear, as in the old days.

    You are secure in your home, and need very little money for the rest of things in life (comparatively).
    Buying doesn't necessarily beat renting on the financials. It depends on various factors. Also a rented option could provide peace and security if it were structured that way and became more of the norm. But with how we roll you're right, you have to buy if you can, and if you can't you're excluded from the main mechanism for personal wealth accumulation for doing nothing. As to whether we ought to lionize and be so reliant on a mechanism for accumulating wealth for doing nothing, I'd say not. It's very ingrained though so I doubt we'll be changing it much.
    If you own the property, you have zero rent in perpetuity.

    If you rent, you are paying money to others until you die.

    The emphasis on rental simply means that property is owned by a smaller group of people.

    The reason that owning a house has become an investment is because of the dedication of many in society to preventing properties being built to match a rising population.
    Skint all your days paying it and then you pop your clogs and get nothing free
    It used to be that people could afford to buy their houses much earlier in their lives. You'd be in your "last" property by 40 or earlier. So a 20 year mortgage would finish nicely in time for your retirement.

    How much would you have to save into a pension to pay the rent on a property for your retirement?

    I actually asked a friend who is an ex-private financial advisor. He confirmed my suspicion that people with no prospect of buying aren't increasing their pension contributions to deal with renting for like. Some people are going to be in a really, really shit situation when they retire.
    Yes can imagine if renting it will be a shock of no decent pension on top of state one.
    There are a couple of good ideas, a lot of virtue signalling and several likely faceplants.

    The biggest issue is that they are lying about so-called No Fault evictions. Shelter research shows that there *are* reasons and the Section 21 eviction is mainly used as the quickest and easiest procedure. Shelter are always happy to spin deceptive stories.

    The last time I looked there were also a lot more of that type of eviction by Housing Associations - but no one will mention that.

    Doubling the notice period for a rental increase is a bizarre one - it already requires 3 months aiui. That will normalise rate of inflation plus a smidgeon rent increases to a strict schedule, which will make increases notably larger than they have been for the last 20 years since they have been behind inflation.

    They will probably make an even bigger mess of dog tenancies than they managed to create last time. That's just SOP for an ignorant Parliament.

    I am not sure how they are going to force lets to XYZ group, when the applicant from that group is often not a suitable tenant.

    As far as I can see they are not dealing with Councils abusing entitled to housing by forcing them to go through a Court process of 4-6 months which wrecks their credit rating and leaves them with several k of Court Fees.

    Car crash coming down the road, in all likelihood.

    And I think the landlord-haters just lost this morning their "mortgages are so much cheaper than rents" brickbat. Perhaps now the thicker ones will realise that rent pays for a hell of a lot more than the mortgage; don't hold your breath.

    It's a touch self-satirical that the PB conversation turns straight to judging the issue from the POV of wealthier people with savings and credit ratings, and pretends that people with impaired credit or low savings don't exist. In fact there are many millions of them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,968
    edited June 16
    There’s always “2%” isn’t there

    I’ve noticed this. In polls. The polls can be on anything - death penalty, war with China, what goes best with soy - and there will be 2% that take the most obviously absurd position.

    Eg We should have the death penalty for all crimes, we should go to war with China now and aim for defeat, soy sauce doesn’t go with anything. 2% will take this or that extreme and RIDIC position

    I wonder if they sit at home quietly laughing
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'd like to see this alongside similar question with Johnson replaced by "politicians". We could then see how much of it is about him rather than the general attitude of the public to politicians.

    This is a good point.

    Like Trump, Johnson relies to a very significant degree on, "Yes, of course he's a sh1t, but they all are, and at least he's our sh1t".

    A significant part of ludicrous conspiracy theories around Pizzagate/QAnon, and heightened rhetoric over "the Swamp", was not that these things would be believed word for word (although some people clearly do) but to lower the bar for conduct generally in a way that is helpful for those who have extremely poor standards of behaviour.
    Yep. And there's this other thing, which makes me tremble with frustration when I hear it -

    "They're all reprobates but at least Boris doesn't pretend to be anything else. And you can see he's not being serious a lot of the time. It's refreshing."

    "I don't like how Trump talks sometimes but it's because he's not PC and speaks his mind. He's not really a politician. He's a businessman first and a chilled out entertainer second. It's refreshing."

    Thus is vice turned into virtue.
    And there's nobody to blame but the "serious" politicians who have treated much of the population with contempt for the last 3 decades or so.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,968
    Anyway, greetings from Yeghegnadzor, Armenia where I have just slept, on and off, for 15 hours

    Quite odd. The accumulated sleep deficit of travel, I guess. Feel fine now. Unsurprisingly refreshed
  • Leon said:

    There’s always “2%” isn’t there

    I’ve noticed this. In polls. The polls can be on anything - death penalty, war with China, what goes best with soy - and there will be 2% that take the most obviously absurd position.

    Eg We should have the death penalty for all crimes, we should go to war with China now and aim for defeat, soy sauce doesn’t go with anything. 2% will take this or that extreme and RIDIC position

    I wonder if they sit at home quietly laughing

    They made the difference with Brexit
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,840
    Where are we with Lord Geidt?

    It seems to be a bit of a hissy fit because the Minister treated the adviser's trade advice as advice, rather than letting him set policy.

    Advisers advise; Ministers decide.

    I'd say he was looking for an excuse, and did not find a very good one.

    Have I missed something?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,968
    edited June 16
    TimS said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (15 June):

    Labour 42% (+3)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
    Green 4% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 12 June

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-40/

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1537465047714340868?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range

    SNP down 2, from 5, to 3

    Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable

    But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching

    Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never

    How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc

    Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now

    Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,028

    Sandpit said:

    Macron is still fixated on the wrong analogy:

    Macron compared Russia-Ukraine war to World War I and Versailles treaty.

    100 years ago "France made a mistake and wanted to humiliate Germany," said French President, adding that Ukraine must be helped but "we should not make the mistakes that others have made in the past."


    https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1537461681915191297

    We should not make the mistakes that others have made in the past. We should arm the hell out of Ukraine, and keep arming them more until the Russians have fcuked off back to Russia.
    We didn't do the same for the Greeks vs. the Turks, and we had greater strategic involvement there.
    And? The world isnt getting back to normal, until Putin the dictator is put firmly back in his box.

    Preferably the sort of box that ends up six feet underground.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,051
    MattW said:

    Where are we with Lord Geidt?

    It seems to be a bit of a hissy fit because the Minister treated the adviser's trade advice as advice, rather than letting him set policy.

    Advisers advise; Ministers decide.

    I'd say he was looking for an excuse, and did not find a very good one.

    Have I missed something?

    The last straw and the largest straw are often quite different things.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,318
    MattW said:

    Where are we with Lord Geidt?

    It seems to be a bit of a hissy fit because the Minister treated the adviser's trade advice as advice, rather than letting him set policy.

    Advisers advise; Ministers decide.

    I'd say he was looking for an excuse, and did not find a very good one.

    Have I missed something?

    You've missed that the Govt. and Labour are in lock step on the issue of supporting the British steel industry. So not so much of a political issue unless Labour want to be hypocritical.


    Ah.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 39,028
    MattW said:
    There’s been a few Russian spies picked up this week. Looks like a co-ordinated action from various European countries.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 1,453
    Leon said:

    Anyway, greetings from Yeghegnadzor, Armenia where I have just slept, on and off, for 15 hours

    Quite odd. The accumulated sleep deficit of travel, I guess. Feel fine now. Unsurprisingly refreshed

    We’ve enjoyed the peace and quiet on here.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,878
    Applicant said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'd like to see this alongside similar question with Johnson replaced by "politicians". We could then see how much of it is about him rather than the general attitude of the public to politicians.

    This is a good point.

    Like Trump, Johnson relies to a very significant degree on, "Yes, of course he's a sh1t, but they all are, and at least he's our sh1t".

    A significant part of ludicrous conspiracy theories around Pizzagate/QAnon, and heightened rhetoric over "the Swamp", was not that these things would be believed word for word (although some people clearly do) but to lower the bar for conduct generally in a way that is helpful for those who have extremely poor standards of behaviour.
    Yep. And there's this other thing, which makes me tremble with frustration when I hear it -

    "They're all reprobates but at least Boris doesn't pretend to be anything else. And you can see he's not being serious a lot of the time. It's refreshing."

    "I don't like how Trump talks sometimes but it's because he's not PC and speaks his mind. He's not really a politician. He's a businessman first and a chilled out entertainer second. It's refreshing."

    Thus is vice turned into virtue.
    And there's nobody to blame but the "serious" politicians who have treated much of the population with contempt for the last 3 decades or so.
    But people who exploit other people's problems and vulnerabilities for their own ends are the pits, and that's the story with these national populists like Trump and Johnson. Special place in hell.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,840
    edited June 16
    Leon said:


    Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never

    Shhh.

    Scots have to learn that they want what they are told to want by Head Office in Holyrood.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,968
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'd like to see this alongside similar question with Johnson replaced by "politicians". We could then see how much of it is about him rather than the general attitude of the public to politicians.

    This is a good point.

    Like Trump, Johnson relies to a very significant degree on, "Yes, of course he's a sh1t, but they all are, and at least he's our sh1t".

    A significant part of ludicrous conspiracy theories around Pizzagate/QAnon, and heightened rhetoric over "the Swamp", was not that these things would be believed word for word (although some people clearly do) but to lower the bar for conduct generally in a way that is helpful for those who have extremely poor standards of behaviour.
    Yep. And there's this other thing, which makes me tremble with frustration when I hear it -

    "They're all reprobates but at least Boris doesn't pretend to be anything else. And you can see he's not being serious a lot of the time. It's refreshing."

    "I don't like how Trump talks sometimes but it's because he's not PC and speaks his mind. He's not really a politician. He's a businessman first and a chilled out entertainer second. It's refreshing."

    Thus is vice turned into virtue.
    I have this weird intimation that you “tremble with frustration” quite a lot


    Must be knackering
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,945
    MattW said:

    Where are we with Lord Geidt?

    It seems to be a bit of a hissy fit because the Minister treated the adviser's trade advice as advice, rather than letting him set policy.

    Advisers advise; Ministers decide.

    I'd say he was looking for an excuse, and did not find a very good one.

    Have I missed something?

    Far more likely the questioning by impertinent oiks was beneath him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,318

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I would have paid good money to see Boycott watching this moment.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2022/jun/16/joe-root-and-jonny-bairstow-ignore-fixed-ideas-to-show-test-cricket-its-future
    ...In the Daily Telegraph the previous week Geoffrey Boycott explained to his readers that Root is a better batsman than his teammates because, unlike them, he “doesn’t play” Twenty20 cricket. “You never see Root play the scoop, ramp or any fancy shots,” Boycott wrote. “His technique is honed and has been from a young age to play proper cricket.” Now Southee is bowling just outside Root’s off stump, looking to take the ball away. It is only the second ball Root had faced that day. He could, probably should, leave it.

    Instead he spreads his feet so he was facing square down the wicket, switches the bat around in his hands and flicks the ball over the heads of the slips. For six...

    Geoffrey can always fall back on his favourite 'well that was such a poor ball my mother could have hit it for 4 with a stick of rhubarb'
    Bet she never ramped it for 6, though.
    Do you think that if equipped with rhubarb bats, the side would crumble?
    Don't be a fool.

    Are you entirely compôte mentis ?
    I am not sure I deserved such a tart response!
    Could have been worse. Could have been a bombe....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,968
    Well done Eden District Council

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/16/burying-of-victorian-bridge-in-cumbria-must-be-reversed-says-council?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    That fucking DISGUSTING infill of a beautiful bridge must be reversed (tho again there were “2 people” who thought it was fine, against 900 who did not, who are they??)

    But the question is: how did this even happen? It seems to be a peculiarly British thing. A philistine disgust at beautiful things so we treat them with overt contempt. Like Scousers booing a lovely hymn

    I cannot think of any advanced culture that does this, except for ones warped by political doctrine, like the church-hating states of the Soviet Union or the iconoclasts of Mao’s Cultural Revolution in China, but even they have now all wised up
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,387
    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    The 19% who think he’s ethical should be sterilized ! The country doesn’t need the gene pool further polluted with idiots .

    Your comments are becoming very tedious.
    Why? How can anyone say he’s ethical ?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,945
    Leon said:

    Well done Eden District Council

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/16/burying-of-victorian-bridge-in-cumbria-must-be-reversed-says-council?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    That fucking DISGUSTING infill of a beautiful bridge must be reversed (tho again there were “2 people” who thought it was fine, against 900 who did not, who are they??)

    But the question is: how did this even happen? It seems to be a peculiarly British thing. A philistine disgust at beautiful things so we treat them with overt contempt. Like Scousers booing a lovely hymn

    I cannot think of any advanced culture that does this, except for ones warped by political doctrine, like the church-hating states of the Soviet Union or the iconoclasts of Mao’s Cultural Revolution in China, but even they have now all wised up

    Makes re-opening the line nearly impossible too.
    A not insignificant point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,460
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'd like to see this alongside similar question with Johnson replaced by "politicians". We could then see how much of it is about him rather than the general attitude of the public to politicians.

    This is a good point.

    Like Trump, Johnson relies to a very significant degree on, "Yes, of course he's a sh1t, but they all are, and at least he's our sh1t".

    A significant part of ludicrous conspiracy theories around Pizzagate/QAnon, and heightened rhetoric over "the Swamp", was not that these things would be believed word for word (although some people clearly do) but to lower the bar for conduct generally in a way that is helpful for those who have extremely poor standards of behaviour.
    Yep. And there's this other thing, which makes me tremble with frustration when I hear it -

    "They're all reprobates but at least Boris doesn't pretend to be anything else. And you can see he's not being serious a lot of the time. It's refreshing."

    "I don't like how Trump talks sometimes but it's because he's not PC and speaks his mind. He's not really a politician. He's a businessman first and a chilled out entertainer second. It's refreshing."

    Thus is vice turned into virtue.
    It's also not true. He would deny being a reprobate.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,468
    HYUFD said:
    Reminds me of my school discos….
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,460
    MattW said:

    Where are we with Lord Geidt?

    It seems to be a bit of a hissy fit because the Minister treated the adviser's trade advice as advice, rather than letting him set policy.

    Advisers advise; Ministers decide.

    I'd say he was looking for an excuse, and did not find a very good one.

    Have I missed something?

    If he was looking for an excuse he had plenty before now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,968
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Well done Eden District Council

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/16/burying-of-victorian-bridge-in-cumbria-must-be-reversed-says-council?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    That fucking DISGUSTING infill of a beautiful bridge must be reversed (tho again there were “2 people” who thought it was fine, against 900 who did not, who are they??)

    But the question is: how did this even happen? It seems to be a peculiarly British thing. A philistine disgust at beautiful things so we treat them with overt contempt. Like Scousers booing a lovely hymn

    I cannot think of any advanced culture that does this, except for ones warped by political doctrine, like the church-hating states of the Soviet Union or the iconoclasts of Mao’s Cultural Revolution in China, but even they have now all wised up

    Makes re-opening the line nearly impossible too.
    A not insignificant point.
    Yes, I suspect some ulterior motive/corruption at work

    Happily they did the infill so badly, with such inexcusable insulting disregard for everyone else, they now have to reverse it in toto, and they can’t do any more anywhere
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 1,468
    MattW said:
    Russian spies at the ICC? That does explain the Test Match schedules.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,878
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'd like to see this alongside similar question with Johnson replaced by "politicians". We could then see how much of it is about him rather than the general attitude of the public to politicians.

    This is a good point.

    Like Trump, Johnson relies to a very significant degree on, "Yes, of course he's a sh1t, but they all are, and at least he's our sh1t".

    A significant part of ludicrous conspiracy theories around Pizzagate/QAnon, and heightened rhetoric over "the Swamp", was not that these things would be believed word for word (although some people clearly do) but to lower the bar for conduct generally in a way that is helpful for those who have extremely poor standards of behaviour.
    Yep. And there's this other thing, which makes me tremble with frustration when I hear it -

    "They're all reprobates but at least Boris doesn't pretend to be anything else. And you can see he's not being serious a lot of the time. It's refreshing."

    "I don't like how Trump talks sometimes but it's because he's not PC and speaks his mind. He's not really a politician. He's a businessman first and a chilled out entertainer second. It's refreshing."

    Thus is vice turned into virtue.
    It's also not true. He would deny being a reprobate.
    With a wink and a glint saying otherwise.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,045
    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    Where are we with Lord Geidt?

    It seems to be a bit of a hissy fit because the Minister treated the adviser's trade advice as advice, rather than letting him set policy.

    Advisers advise; Ministers decide.

    I'd say he was looking for an excuse, and did not find a very good one.

    Have I missed something?

    Far more likely the questioning by impertinent oiks was beneath him.
    You keep saying this, why? Can't see anything about him to justify it

    Still completely at sea as to why he should be asked about steel tariffs unless as tim has suggested on twitter Jennifer arcuri has bought a steel mill
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,460
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Macron is still fixated on the wrong analogy:

    Macron compared Russia-Ukraine war to World War I and Versailles treaty.

    100 years ago "France made a mistake and wanted to humiliate Germany," said French President, adding that Ukraine must be helped but "we should not make the mistakes that others have made in the past."


    https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1537461681915191297

    We should not make the mistakes that others have made in the past. We should arm the hell out of Ukraine, and keep arming them more until the Russians have fcuked off back to Russia.
    After that is the time for magnanimity, not before.
    Yes, that is a really weird statement. Germany was humiliated after it was defeated. We can worry about whether Russia is humiliated once(if) it too is defeated.

    The unavoidable conclusion from some comments is that Russia being defeated is itself a humiliation too far, but if we believe that everyone really should just tell Ukraine to surrender, since are we to believe if the Pre-Feb status quo was achieved that that would not be a humiliation to Putin?

    Plus it has been pointed out that Putin has the internal resources to disguise any humiliation to his populace anyway - they are already adept at presenting a lot of things as humiliations so they have pretexts.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,115
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (15 June):

    Labour 42% (+3)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
    Green 4% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 12 June

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-40/

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1537465047714340868?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range

    SNP down 2, from 5, to 3

    Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable

    But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching

    Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never

    How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc

    Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now

    Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
    Also interesting that Conservatives and older people are more worried by recession than inflation, and Labour voters, especially the young, are more worried by inflation. I wouldn't have predicted either finding, though one can explain it in various ways, as Redfield & Wilton try to.

    The main poll reasserts Labour's persistent lead - there seems to be a pattern that the Government can seize the agenda for a few days, e.g. over Rwanda, and that narrows the lead to 3 or 4, but when the story dies down it reverts. I know really a lot of people, many of them traditionally Conservative, who say they have made up their minds to remove the Government when the opportunity arises. They aren't especially following the news, they don't necessarily like Starmer particularly, but they just feel it's really time to move on. I'm not sure they are likely to swing back in the way we've seen in past Parliaments.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,460
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'd like to see this alongside similar question with Johnson replaced by "politicians". We could then see how much of it is about him rather than the general attitude of the public to politicians.

    This is a good point.

    Like Trump, Johnson relies to a very significant degree on, "Yes, of course he's a sh1t, but they all are, and at least he's our sh1t".

    A significant part of ludicrous conspiracy theories around Pizzagate/QAnon, and heightened rhetoric over "the Swamp", was not that these things would be believed word for word (although some people clearly do) but to lower the bar for conduct generally in a way that is helpful for those who have extremely poor standards of behaviour.
    Yep. And there's this other thing, which makes me tremble with frustration when I hear it -

    "They're all reprobates but at least Boris doesn't pretend to be anything else. And you can see he's not being serious a lot of the time. It's refreshing."

    "I don't like how Trump talks sometimes but it's because he's not PC and speaks his mind. He's not really a politician. He's a businessman first and a chilled out entertainer second. It's refreshing."

    Thus is vice turned into virtue.
    It's also not true. He would deny being a reprobate.
    With a wink and a glint saying otherwise.
    Point being he feels the need to claim not to be one, however ludicrously, so he is at the least not honest about being so if that is the claim people are making.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,878
    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    Where are we with Lord Geidt?

    It seems to be a bit of a hissy fit because the Minister treated the adviser's trade advice as advice, rather than letting him set policy.

    Advisers advise; Ministers decide.

    I'd say he was looking for an excuse, and did not find a very good one.

    Have I missed something?

    Far more likely the questioning by impertinent oiks was beneath him.
    Yes, humiliated in public like David Kelly. Thankfully responds with a resignation.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    TimS said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (15 June):

    Labour 42% (+3)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
    Green 4% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 12 June

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-40/

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1537465047714340868?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range

    Polling Headline. Are we seeing polling sign of green bleeding into red?
    Sub headline. With increasing numbers of 34% post vonc, the Tories are remaining strong into June considering mid term struggles.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,475
    MattW said:

    Leon said:


    Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never

    Shhh.

    Scots have to learn that they want what they are told to want by Head Office in Holyrood.
    Au contraire, we’re hanging on every word of the pm people like you elected.

    ‘Like people everywhere, they have the right to decide their own future’

    https://twitter.com/separatistvegan/status/1537026394210844674?s=21&t=N9KJX1Wph2TLQYEYjdyVsQ
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    TimS said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 40% (-2)
    CON: 34% (+3)
    LDEM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 10 - 12 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 29 May

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1537465407224918017?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    LLG 54%, at the lower end of the recent range.

    That poll is sooooooooooo yesterday. 🥹
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,878
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'd like to see this alongside similar question with Johnson replaced by "politicians". We could then see how much of it is about him rather than the general attitude of the public to politicians.

    This is a good point.

    Like Trump, Johnson relies to a very significant degree on, "Yes, of course he's a sh1t, but they all are, and at least he's our sh1t".

    A significant part of ludicrous conspiracy theories around Pizzagate/QAnon, and heightened rhetoric over "the Swamp", was not that these things would be believed word for word (although some people clearly do) but to lower the bar for conduct generally in a way that is helpful for those who have extremely poor standards of behaviour.
    Yep. And there's this other thing, which makes me tremble with frustration when I hear it -

    "They're all reprobates but at least Boris doesn't pretend to be anything else. And you can see he's not being serious a lot of the time. It's refreshing."

    "I don't like how Trump talks sometimes but it's because he's not PC and speaks his mind. He's not really a politician. He's a businessman first and a chilled out entertainer second. It's refreshing."

    Thus is vice turned into virtue.
    I have this weird intimation that you “tremble with frustration” quite a lot

    Must be knackering
    I don't enjoy doing it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,383
    nico679 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    The 19% who think he’s ethical should be sterilized ! The country doesn’t need the gene pool further polluted with idiots .

    Your comments are becoming very tedious.
    Why? How can anyone say he’s ethical ?
    Sterilization seems like a little harsh though, no?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877

    MattW said:

    Where are we with Lord Geidt?

    It seems to be a bit of a hissy fit because the Minister treated the adviser's trade advice as advice, rather than letting him set policy.

    Advisers advise; Ministers decide.

    I'd say he was looking for an excuse, and did not find a very good one.

    Have I missed something?

    You've missed that the Govt. and Labour are in lock step on the issue of supporting the British steel industry. So not so much of a political issue unless Labour want to be hypocritical.


    Ah.
    Wants to destroy the UK Steel Industry so China rules the world. Lord Geidt the Great British Traitor! 😡

    Put him in the stocks in the red wall so us ordinary people can pass our judgement on him. (And check his bank accounts to see if he has been bought)

    What other conclusion can we have?

    Nb by “us ordinary people” I meant all you, I’m very special 😇
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,387
    rcs1000 said:

    nico679 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    The 19% who think he’s ethical should be sterilized ! The country doesn’t need the gene pool further polluted with idiots .

    Your comments are becoming very tedious.
    Why? How can anyone say he’s ethical ?
    Sterilization seems like a little harsh though, no?
    Really ! Lol I was being dramatic with my comments but really people must be stupid or in denial to think Johnson is ethical .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,878
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (15 June):

    Labour 42% (+3)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
    Green 4% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 12 June

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-40/

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1537465047714340868?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range

    SNP down 2, from 5, to 3

    Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable

    But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching

    Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never

    How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc

    Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now

    Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
    Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,045
    MattW said:
    The spire of the Grote Kerk is one of the tallest in the Netherlands
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,878

    Leon said:

    Anyway, greetings from Yeghegnadzor, Armenia where I have just slept, on and off, for 15 hours

    Quite odd. The accumulated sleep deficit of travel, I guess. Feel fine now. Unsurprisingly refreshed

    We’ve enjoyed the peace and quiet on here.
    Yes, the right amount of Leon, the sweet spot if you will, is somewhere between zero and a lot.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,157
    Leon said:

    There’s always “2%” isn’t there

    I’ve noticed this. In polls. The polls can be on anything - death penalty, war with China, what goes best with soy - and there will be 2% that take the most obviously absurd position.

    Eg We should have the death penalty for all crimes, we should go to war with China now and aim for defeat, soy sauce doesn’t go with anything. 2% will take this or that extreme and RIDIC position

    I wonder if they sit at home quietly laughing

    Radio 4's More or Less did a feature on this a long time back. Yes there are studies investigating "absurd responses in polls" is about 2 or 3% of respondants who do this. There are quite a few different reasons for it though, from belligerance to thinking the question was formlated the other way round.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,265
    TimS said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (15 June):

    Labour 42% (+3)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
    Green 4% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 12 June

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-40/

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1537465047714340868?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range

    Once again we see how quickly the LD "surge" fades once starved of any meaningful publicity. This is why it's vitally important for by-election opportunities like T&H to be taken with both hands. A day or so of good publicity will once again feed into a poll bounce I would suspect.

    The duopoly up from 71 to 76 looks a bit outlier to this observer but we'll see.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,475
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (15 June):

    Labour 42% (+3)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
    Green 4% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 12 June

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-40/

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1537465047714340868?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range

    SNP down 2, from 5, to 3

    Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable

    But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching

    Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never

    How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc

    Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now

    Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
    Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
    Yep, in fact not all Unionists are cowardly hypocrites, some of them while against Indy are part of the majority that think that the SG has a mandate to hold another referendum.

    'Is there a mandate for IndyRef2? Evidence from the Scottish Election Study

    Across the board we see that following the 2021 election, majorities in all conditions thought there was a mandate for a second referendum, whether they received the neutral prompt (55%), the SNP fell short prompt (53%) and the pro-independence parties won a majority prompt (61%).'

    https://tinyurl.com/2tesne3b
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    On topic. “ More and more, it seems to me, that he believes he can get away with just about anything.”

    So, still there at next election, how about voter suppression, last minute gerrymandering of key marginals, and dirty tricks election campaign the likes of which we have never seen - Starmer chased everywhere by Jimmy Saville impersonators etc? 😁
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,878
    rcs1000 said:

    nico679 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    The 19% who think he’s ethical should be sterilized ! The country doesn’t need the gene pool further polluted with idiots .

    Your comments are becoming very tedious.
    Why? How can anyone say he’s ethical ?
    Sterilization seems like a little harsh though, no?
    He wasn't being 100% serious. I sense that Nico trembles with frustration like me. It makes you say things. That's all it is.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,945
    eristdoof said:

    Leon said:

    There’s always “2%” isn’t there

    I’ve noticed this. In polls. The polls can be on anything - death penalty, war with China, what goes best with soy - and there will be 2% that take the most obviously absurd position.

    Eg We should have the death penalty for all crimes, we should go to war with China now and aim for defeat, soy sauce doesn’t go with anything. 2% will take this or that extreme and RIDIC position

    I wonder if they sit at home quietly laughing

    Radio 4's More or Less did a feature on this a long time back. Yes there are studies investigating "absurd responses in polls" is about 2 or 3% of respondants who do this. There are quite a few different reasons for it though, from belligerance to thinking the question was formlated the other way round.
    How many don't actually know what "ethical" means. But don't like to say so?
    The high level of don't knows would suggest this. It must have been incredibly difficult to have avoided the stories long enough to not be able to form a view.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 279
    edited June 16
    Leon said:


    That fucking DISGUSTING infill of a beautiful bridge must be reversed (tho again there were “2 people” who thought it was fine, against 900 who did not, who are they??)

    But the question is: how did this even happen? It seems to be a peculiarly British thing. A philistine disgust at beautiful things so we treat them with overt contempt. Like Scousers booing a lovely hymn

    I cannot think of any advanced culture that does this, except for ones warped by political doctrine, like the church-hating states of the Soviet Union or the iconoclasts of Mao’s Cultural Revolution in China, but even they have now all wised up

    Totally agreed on reversing the infill -- for me the main reason is that I don't think we should let people get away with sidestepping rules by presenting that kind of "oops, but it's done now, so here we are, let's just move on, eh?" fait accompli to society. (I agree on aesthetic and don't-prevent-railway-reinstatement grounds too.) "Whoops, this listed but expensive-to-convert building seems to have suffered a convenient arson attack" is another on similar lines.

    Not sure Britain is alone in this -- Japan has some nasty examples too, where the "construction state" builds new stuff and bulldozes the old. For instance the historic Nihonbashi bridge in Tokyo currently has an expressway running over the top of it so low that the ornate iron lampposts of the old bridge have had to be carefully fitted in the gap between expressway carriageways. The original
    Frank Lloyd Wright designed Imperial Hotel is another -- replaced with a dull modern hotel.

    Edit: Alex Kerr's _Dogs and Demons_ has a section on this sort of Japanese architectural vandalism, I think.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,988
    edited June 16
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (15 June):

    Labour 42% (+3)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
    Green 4% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 12 June

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-40/

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1537465047714340868?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range

    SNP down 2, from 5, to 3

    Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable

    But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching

    Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never

    How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc

    Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now

    Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
    Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
    Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1536728990043471872?s=20&t=29GGvREdxcT_igSiM_JRgg
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,968
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (15 June):

    Labour 42% (+3)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
    Green 4% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 12 June

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-40/

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1537465047714340868?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range

    SNP down 2, from 5, to 3

    Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable

    But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching

    Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never

    How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc

    Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now

    Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
    Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
    Yes yes, we disagree on this, whatevs

    Please address the question. You are often quite perceptive when not “trembling with Woke indignation”

    What do you think Sturgeon’s commitment to a vote will do to the Nat polls? I reckon it will move them but it might move them both ways: she gains some wavering Alba types but loses soft YESers who want a quiet life right now, so it might end up status quo
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,045
    eristdoof said:

    Leon said:

    There’s always “2%” isn’t there

    I’ve noticed this. In polls. The polls can be on anything - death penalty, war with China, what goes best with soy - and there will be 2% that take the most obviously absurd position.

    Eg We should have the death penalty for all crimes, we should go to war with China now and aim for defeat, soy sauce doesn’t go with anything. 2% will take this or that extreme and RIDIC position

    I wonder if they sit at home quietly laughing

    Radio 4's More or Less did a feature on this a long time back. Yes there are studies investigating "absurd responses in polls" is about 2 or 3% of respondants who do this. There are quite a few different reasons for it though, from belligerance to thinking the question was formlated the other way round.
    There was a US poll with a typo in it so one question was Have you ever been decapitated and 4% said yes
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    edited June 16
    Leon said:

    Anyway, greetings from Yeghegnadzor, Armenia where I have just slept, on and off, for 15 hours

    Quite odd. The accumulated sleep deficit of travel, I guess. Feel fine now. Unsurprisingly refreshed

    I was meaning to ask you, travelling man, after reading your social and political and cultural dispatches from Armenia, have you read A Hero of Our Time?

    https://www.ibiblio.org/eldritch/myl/hero.htm
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 17,030
    Leon said:

    There’s always “2%” isn’t there

    I’ve noticed this. In polls. The polls can be on anything - death penalty, war with China, what goes best with soy - and there will be 2% that take the most obviously absurd position.

    Eg We should have the death penalty for all crimes, we should go to war with China now and aim for defeat, soy sauce doesn’t go with anything. 2% will take this or that extreme and RIDIC position

    I wonder if they sit at home quietly laughing

    There was the much higher percentage who, for example, thought night clubs should never re-open when asked during the Covid pandemic.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,205

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (15 June):

    Labour 42% (+3)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
    Green 4% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 12 June

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-40/

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1537465047714340868?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range

    SNP down 2, from 5, to 3

    Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable

    But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching

    Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never

    How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc

    Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now

    Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
    Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
    Yep, in fact not all Unionists are cowardly hypocrites, some of them while against Indy are part of the majority that think that the SG has a mandate to hold another referendum.

    'Is there a mandate for IndyRef2? Evidence from the Scottish Election Study

    Across the board we see that following the 2021 election, majorities in all conditions thought there was a mandate for a second referendum, whether they received the neutral prompt (55%), the SNP fell short prompt (53%) and the pro-independence parties won a majority prompt (61%).'

    https://tinyurl.com/2tesne3b
    I am one of those in your first paragraph and as is common knowledge I expect the union to win

    However, Starmer is clearly opposed and David Lammy on Sky yesterday, when asked about indyref 2, responded absolutely not

    I do not know how indyref 2 can be held legally, when the HOC is so opposed, apart from the SNP and minor parties who clearly want it to be held
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,307
    pm215 said:

    Leon said:


    That fucking DISGUSTING infill of a beautiful bridge must be reversed (tho again there were “2 people” who thought it was fine, against 900 who did not, who are they??)

    But the question is: how did this even happen? It seems to be a peculiarly British thing. A philistine disgust at beautiful things so we treat them with overt contempt. Like Scousers booing a lovely hymn

    I cannot think of any advanced culture that does this, except for ones warped by political doctrine, like the church-hating states of the Soviet Union or the iconoclasts of Mao’s Cultural Revolution in China, but even they have now all wised up

    Totally agreed on reversing the infill -- for me the main reason is that I don't think we should let people get away with sidestepping rules by presenting that kind of "oops, but it's done now, so here we are, let's just move on, eh?" fait accompli to society. (I agree on aesthetic and don't-prevent-railway-reinstatement grounds too.) "Whoops, this listed but expensive-to-convert building seems to have suffered a convenient arson attack" is another on similar lines.

    Not sure Britain is alone in this -- Japan has some nasty examples too, where the "construction state" builds new stuff and bulldozes the old. For instance the historic Nihonbashi bridge in Tokyo currently has an expressway running over the top of it so low that the ornate iron lampposts of the old bridge have had to be carefully fitted in the gap between expressway carriageways. The original
    Frank Lloyd Wright designed Imperial Hotel is another -- replaced with a dull modern hotel.

    Edit: Alex Kerr's _Dogs and Demons_ has a section on this sort of Japanese architectural vandalism, I think.
    The bridge thing also looked like extremely bad practise to me - engineering in the style of a 5 year old in a sandpit. How could you tell if there were voids in that pile, or how it settled?

    Chain them to a bronze statue of IKB and drop them in the Thames…..
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,634
    .
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'd like to see this alongside similar question with Johnson replaced by "politicians". We could then see how much of it is about him rather than the general attitude of the public to politicians.

    This is a good point.

    Like Trump, Johnson relies to a very significant degree on, "Yes, of course he's a sh1t, but they all are, and at least he's our sh1t".

    A significant part of ludicrous conspiracy theories around Pizzagate/QAnon, and heightened rhetoric over "the Swamp", was not that these things would be believed word for word (although some people clearly do) but to lower the bar for conduct generally in a way that is helpful for those who have extremely poor standards of behaviour.
    Yep. And there's this other thing, which makes me tremble with frustration when I hear it -

    "They're all reprobates but at least Boris doesn't pretend to be anything else. And you can see he's not being serious a lot of the time. It's refreshing."

    "I don't like how Trump talks sometimes but it's because he's not PC and speaks his mind. He's not really a politician. He's a businessman first and a chilled out entertainer second. It's refreshing."

    Thus is vice turned into virtue.
    I have this weird intimation that you “tremble with frustration” quite a lot

    Must be knackering
    We all have our ways of coping.

    Some go large with the CAPS LOCK, for instance.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,503
    HYUFD said:



    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (15 June):

    Labour 42% (+3)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
    Green 4% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 12 June

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-40/

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1537465047714340868?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range

    SNP down 2, from 5, to 3

    Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable

    But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching

    Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never

    How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc

    Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now

    Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
    Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
    Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1536728990043471872?s=20&t=29GGvREdxcT_igSiM_JRgg
    A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?

    Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,115
    Back on topic, the thing that really strikes me is that although 49% of Conservatives feel he is unethical, they say they are going to vote for him anyway. That means that being ethical isn't that important to them, and goes with other polls surprising to those of us who have lived and breathed democratic politics, like the French one saying that 40% would like France to be governed by a dictator. Similarly, although the hearings in the US are building a convincing case that Trump tried to seize power illegally, only IIRC 21% of the electorate say they find this very important.

    I think the problem is that an awful lot of people feel that things are a bit crap and it needs a forceful leader to sort things out, never mind the details. Perhaps Putin's apparent popularity at home has a similar root - after bureacratic Brezhnev and drunken Yeltsin, Putin has a clear agenda, even if it's one that most rational people would conclude is pretty unwise and unethical.

    It should go without saying that this is disturbing. Is it new, or were there always a large chunk of voters who didn't really care about ethics and morality, just deliver the tax cuts?


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,307
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Macron is still fixated on the wrong analogy:

    Macron compared Russia-Ukraine war to World War I and Versailles treaty.

    100 years ago "France made a mistake and wanted to humiliate Germany," said French President, adding that Ukraine must be helped but "we should not make the mistakes that others have made in the past."


    https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1537461681915191297

    We should not make the mistakes that others have made in the past. We should arm the hell out of Ukraine, and keep arming them more until the Russians have fcuked off back to Russia.
    After that is the time for magnanimity, not before.
    Yes, that is a really weird statement. Germany was humiliated after it was defeated. We can worry about whether Russia is humiliated once(if) it too is defeated.

    The unavoidable conclusion from some comments is that Russia being defeated is itself a humiliation too far, but if we believe that everyone really should just tell Ukraine to surrender, since are we to believe if the Pre-Feb status quo was achieved that that would not be a humiliation to Putin?

    Plus it has been pointed out that Putin has the internal resources to disguise any humiliation to his populace anyway - they are already adept at presenting a lot of things as humiliations so they have pretexts.
    The problem after WWI was too little humiliation, not too much.

    Because the Allies didn’t march into Berlin, hang the Kaiser etc. the Germans got the idea that they had merely lost Round 2 of X in the FrancoGerman wars.

    After WWII, the Germans were carefully humiliated in every way possible. As some put it, they were made to re-apply for admission to the human race…
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,045
    pm215 said:

    Leon said:


    That fucking DISGUSTING infill of a beautiful bridge must be reversed (tho again there were “2 people” who thought it was fine, against 900 who did not, who are they??)

    But the question is: how did this even happen? It seems to be a peculiarly British thing. A philistine disgust at beautiful things so we treat them with overt contempt. Like Scousers booing a lovely hymn

    I cannot think of any advanced culture that does this, except for ones warped by political doctrine, like the church-hating states of the Soviet Union or the iconoclasts of Mao’s Cultural Revolution in China, but even they have now all wised up

    Totally agreed on reversing the infill -- for me the main reason is that I don't think we should let people get away with sidestepping rules by presenting that kind of "oops, but it's done now, so here we are, let's just move on, eh?" fait accompli to society. (I agree on aesthetic and don't-prevent-railway-reinstatement grounds too.) "Whoops, this listed but expensive-to-convert building seems to have suffered a convenient arson attack" is another on similar lines.

    Not sure Britain is alone in this -- Japan has some nasty examples too, where the "construction state" builds new stuff and bulldozes the old. For instance the historic Nihonbashi bridge in Tokyo currently has an expressway running over the top of it so low that the ornate iron lampposts of the old bridge have had to be carefully fitted in the gap between expressway carriageways. The original
    Frank Lloyd Wright designed Imperial Hotel is another -- replaced with a dull modern hotel.

    Edit: Alex Kerr's _Dogs and Demons_ has a section on this sort of Japanese architectural vandalism, I think.
    I have read that the Japanese regard buildings as pretty transient things with a 50 year design life so perhaps the build quality isn't great
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,988
    edited June 16
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:



    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (15 June):

    Labour 42% (+3)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
    Green 4% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 12 June

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-40/

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1537465047714340868?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range

    SNP down 2, from 5, to 3

    Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable

    But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching

    Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never

    How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc

    Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now

    Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
    Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
    Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1536728990043471872?s=20&t=29GGvREdxcT_igSiM_JRgg
    A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?

    Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.

    And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.

    At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
  • Leon said:


    SNP down 2, from 5, to 3

    Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable

    But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching

    Anecdote alert. I was sitting in a waiting room in a hospital in Glasgow when Sturgeon's press conference came on the TV. One of the nurses who was doing paperwork nearby looked up at the TV, took in what was being said and muttered "Oh not that nonsense again". Her colleague, who was typing up something, listened to the TV for a moment, shook her head, sighed, and went back to typing.

    I was quite surprised, to put it mildly; neither Glasgow nor the NHS are exactly strongholds of Unionism. But maybe I just found the token Unionists.

    (as an aside, I waited almost exactly a year for that appointment only to find on the day that the NHS had screwed up and sent me to someone who is not a specialist in my particular condition. So now more waiting. And that's far from the most serious error my family and I have experienced at the hands of the NHS recently. If anything brings the SNP down, their mismanagement of the health service will be it)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 17,030

    Back on topic, the thing that really strikes me is that although 49% of Conservatives feel he is unethical, they say they are going to vote for him anyway. That means that being ethical isn't that important to them, and goes with other polls surprising to those of us who have lived and breathed democratic politics, like the French one saying that 40% would like France to be governed by a dictator. Similarly, although the hearings in the US are building a convincing case that Trump tried to seize power illegally, only IIRC 21% of the electorate say they find this very important.

    I think the problem is that an awful lot of people feel that things are a bit crap and it needs a forceful leader to sort things out, never mind the details. Perhaps Putin's apparent popularity at home has a similar root - after bureacratic Brezhnev and drunken Yeltsin, Putin has a clear agenda, even if it's one that most rational people would conclude is pretty unwise and unethical.

    It should go without saying that this is disturbing. Is it new, or were there always a large chunk of voters who didn't really care about ethics and morality, just deliver the tax cuts?


    A lot of people voted (indirectly) for Tony Blair in 2005 even though they thought the Iraq War was unethical.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,397
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (15 June):

    Labour 42% (+3)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
    Green 4% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 12 June

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-40/

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1537465047714340868?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range

    SNP down 2, from 5, to 3

    Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable

    But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching

    Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never

    How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc

    Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now

    Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
    Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
    My understanding of the situation (which is necessarily limited: I don't live up there and I don't follow the latest Edinburgh goings on especially closely) is that the First Minister shows no signs of publishing legislation to hold a second referendum, and nor will she disclose the full details of legal advice as to her chances of getting such legislation to stand if she attempts to pass it without the consent of Westminster (where the current Government, at least, will always respond patiently with the "once in a generation" argument.) Instead, the Scottish electorate is to be treated to a steady trickle of policy papers, containing revelations that will hopefully make them yearn to vote Yes when the blessed day finally dawns.

    I'm not in the same camp as those who treat Sturgeon almost as some kind of closet Unionist (or, at any rate, as someone who is way too comfortable with the status quo.) I believe that she wants to go. But I also believe that she is foot-dragging, because she's not stupid and can read the mood of her own party and the public. Consider:

    1. Sturgeon manages to deliver a second referendum that available evidence suggests most Scottish voters don't want right now. There then follows a very significant risk of a second defeat. Her career ends in failure as per her predecessor's, and the ultimate goal could recede significantly further into the distance (I'm not convinced that Scotland and Quebec are directly comparable in this sense, but you can understand why she might be worried about this)
    2. Sturgeon fails to deliver a second referendum, most likely because she tries to hold one but Westminster stonewalls her, the courts strike it down, and a majority of the Scottish population shrugs rather than responds with thwarted rage - in which case, what is either her leadership or her party for? Cue internecine conflict over direction and strategy within the party, and voter defections without

    In short, I think that Sturgeon likely views conditions as not presently being propitious for a rematch of 2014, and that she is therefore stalling in the hope that something will turn up to render them so.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,205
    edited June 16
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:



    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (15 June):

    Labour 42% (+3)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
    Green 4% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 12 June

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-40/

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1537465047714340868?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range

    SNP down 2, from 5, to 3

    Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable

    But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching

    Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never

    How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc

    Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now

    Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
    Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
    Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1536728990043471872?s=20&t=29GGvREdxcT_igSiM_JRgg
    A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?

    Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.

    To be fair to @HYUFD it is the You Gov poll from 2 days ago

    YouGov

    Jun 14 Should Scotland be an independent country? (18-23 May)

    Yes: 45% (-2 from Nov)
    No: 55% (+2)

    In principle, do Scots think there should/not be a Scottish independence referendum...

    This year: 18% should / 71% should not

    In 2023: 28% / 59%

    In the next 5 years: 42% / 41%

    4:15 PM · Jun 14, 2022
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,503
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:



    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (15 June):

    Labour 42% (+3)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
    Green 4% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 12 June

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-40/

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1537465047714340868?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range

    SNP down 2, from 5, to 3

    Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable

    But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching

    Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never

    How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc

    Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now

    Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
    Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
    Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1536728990043471872?s=20&t=29GGvREdxcT_igSiM_JRgg
    A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?

    Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.

    And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum
    So? We can vote for what we want and if you limit these things then something has to give. There is this thijng called 'progress' and 'change'. If Henry VIII thought like you do, you would be telling us all about the indisputable supremacy of the Roman Church and the wisdom of the pope.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 20,968

    Leon said:

    Anyway, greetings from Yeghegnadzor, Armenia where I have just slept, on and off, for 15 hours

    Quite odd. The accumulated sleep deficit of travel, I guess. Feel fine now. Unsurprisingly refreshed

    I was meaning to ask you, travelling man, after reading your social and political and cultural dispatches from Armenia, have you read A Hero of Our Time?

    https://www.ibiblio.org/eldritch/myl/hero.htm
    I have, and it’s one of my favourite Russian novels.

    When I was in Tbilisi it felt terrifically Lermontov, not least because so many of those svelte young Russian officers flirting and promenading in Vladikavkaz, and admiring the peasant Circassian girls, would have come down to Tiflis for the sulfur baths (certainly Pushkin and Tolstoy did)


    This is totally my new favourite part of the word. Armenia is terrifically exotic. I am 100% the only non-Armenian in this ugly yet somehow adorable little town lodged int the spectacular South Caucasus winelands

    I sip the excellent white (80p a glass) and gaze out at the wheeling swallows. They play Anglo-French chill out music. The sun sets over the semi-desert and the dark green canyons and, far beyond, over distant snow-capped Ararat

    Sublime
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,634
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (15 June):

    Labour 42% (+3)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
    Green 4% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 12 June

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-40/

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1537465047714340868?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range

    SNP down 2, from 5, to 3

    Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable

    But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching

    Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never

    How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc

    Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now

    Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
    Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
    Yes yes, we disagree on this, whatevs

    Please address the question. You are often quite perceptive when not “trembling with Woke indignation”

    What do you think Sturgeon’s commitment to a vote will do to the Nat polls? I reckon it will move them but it might move them both ways: she gains some wavering Alba types but loses soft YESers who want a quiet life right now, so it might end up status quo
    Time will tell.

    Note the issue currently most concerning those polled is the economy. It’s not impossible that continued high energy prices might make an independent Scotland look rather more viable than was the case last time round - especially if Brexit continues to look an economically duff decision. There’s no escape from the latter while part of the UK.
    Whether that’s likely or not, I leave for you to decide, but it’s possible.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,503
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:



    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (15 June):

    Labour 42% (+3)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
    Green 4% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 12 June

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-40/

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1537465047714340868?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range

    SNP down 2, from 5, to 3

    Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable

    But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching

    Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never

    How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc

    Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now

    Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
    Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
    Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1536728990043471872?s=20&t=29GGvREdxcT_igSiM_JRgg
    A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?

    Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.

    And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.

    At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
    Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that?
    If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 332
    While we worry about the economic future of the West given high inflation and recession fears, it's perhaps worth celebrating that our two greatest rivals are either:

    1. Locked in an unwinnable war against Ukraine that will act as an anchor around their economy and isolate them from the world

    2. Locked in an unwinnable war against Covid that will act as an anchor around their economy and isolate them from the world
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,878

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (15 June):

    Labour 42% (+3)
    Conservative 34% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (-3)
    Green 4% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
    Reform UK 3% (+1)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 12 June

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-40/

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1537465047714340868?s=20&t=zi06nAivkPVO1N-c0ksd7Q

    Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range

    SNP down 2, from 5, to 3

    Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable

    But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching

    Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never

    How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc

    Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now

    Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
    Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
    Yep, in fact not all Unionists are cowardly hypocrites, some of them while against Indy are part of the majority that think that the SG has a mandate to hold another referendum.

    'Is there a mandate for IndyRef2? Evidence from the Scottish Election Study

    Across the board we see that following the 2021 election, majorities in all conditions thought there was a mandate for a second referendum, whether they received the neutral prompt (55%), the SNP fell short prompt (53%) and the pro-independence parties won a majority prompt (61%).'

    https://tinyurl.com/2tesne3b
    I personally can't see how there isn't a mandate. Those figs show how big the challenge for Sturgeon is though. 45% are so anti independence they won't even recognize she's just won an election with the Ref commitment front and centre. Then, as you say, amongst the 55% are those like David on here - unionists with a streak of liking democracy, plus who think the Ref should be soon because they'd win again and that nails it.

    As for Leon's question on how her "new" focus on Sindy will affect the polls, I have no clue. What do you think?
This discussion has been closed.