The problem after WWI was too little humiliation, not too much.
Because the Allies didn’t march into Berlin, hang the Kaiser etc. the Germans got the idea that they had merely lost Round 2 of X in the Franco-German wars.
After WWII, the Germans were carefully humiliated in every way possible. As some put it, they were made to re-apply for admission to the human race…
The physical conquest of your land and occupation by foreign troops is about the worst humiliation any nation can suffer. Apart from the Channel Islands, we avoided that in the wars of recent times.
I do sometimes wonder if this is part of the debate about migrants - the English have little or no conception what it is like to be unwelcome in your own country (the Scots and Irish do) - it's 950 years since the Harrowing of the North after all - and to be forced to leave it and seek safety elsewhere as a refugee.
I presume no one is advocating the physical invasion and occupation of Russia - I suspect we even have to be careful about the Crimea - as that would put this conflict into a much more dangerous phase.
Legendary bacterial evolution experiment enters new era https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01620-3 A laboratory has been growing 12 populations of E. coli since 1988 — this year the cultures will get a new custodian...
… Lenski: My bias going into the experiment was that all the strains would go off in very different directions. I was thinking that the roles of chance and contingency in evolution would have been larger than they were. And over the years, we’ve actually seen just striking amounts of reproducibility. So although a typical line has improved its relative fitness compared with the ancestor by maybe 70% or 80%, the variance in competitive fitness between most lines is more like just a few per cent. So they’ve all tremendously increased, but very similarly to one another.
But then, over the years we've also seen quite striking divergences between the lines. Thirty thousand generations into the experiment one of the 12 lines evolved the ability to consume citrate, instead of just glucose. And that garnered quite a lot of attention, and even some, shall we say, hostility from some people who are sceptical of the power of evolution. And after 75,000 generations , it’s still the only one of the 12 lines that has evolved that ability.…
While we worry about the economic future of the West given high inflation and recession fears, it's perhaps worth celebrating that our two greatest rivals are either:
1. Locked in an unwinnable war against Ukraine that will act as an anchor around their economy and isolate them from the world
2. Locked in an unwinnable war against Covid that will act as an anchor around their economy and isolate them from the world
Back on topic, the thing that really strikes me is that although 49% of Conservatives feel he is unethical, they say they are going to vote for him anyway. That means that being ethical isn't that important to them, and goes with other polls surprising to those of us who have lived and breathed democratic politics, like the French one saying that 40% would like France to be governed by a dictator. Similarly, although the hearings in the US are building a convincing case that Trump tried to seize power illegally, only IIRC 21% of the electorate say they find this very important.
I think the problem is that an awful lot of people feel that things are a bit crap and it needs a forceful leader to sort things out, never mind the details. Perhaps Putin's apparent popularity at home has a similar root - after bureacratic Brezhnev and drunken Yeltsin, Putin has a clear agenda, even if it's one that most rational people would conclude is pretty unwise and unethical.
It should go without saying that this is disturbing. Is it new, or were there always a large chunk of voters who didn't really care about ethics and morality, just deliver the tax cuts?
I really, really don't want to get ad hominem on your ass, but if you want to present yourself as a champion of democratic accountability: did you as an MP vote in against an inquiry into the Iraq war? How many times?
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to me that none of the people who’d deny an independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
Yes so the Tories have a majority of MPs at Westminster and as Westminster is supreme over Holyrood on the Union, those Tory MPs and the Tory PM will continue to validly refuse an indyref2
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
To be fair to @HYUFD it is the You Gov poll from 2 days ago
YouGov
Jun 14 Should Scotland be an independent country? (18-23 May)
Yes: 45% (-2 from Nov) No: 55% (+2)
In principle, do Scots think there should/not be a Scottish independence referendum...
This year: 18% should / 71% should not
In 2023: 28% / 59%
In the next 5 years: 42% / 41%
4:15 PM · Jun 14, 2022
That is a different question from whether there is a mandate to have a referendum. And 'should' could mean 'yes I'd like one but later on'. When the mandate issue is raised, there is a majority accepting that - see TUD/Kinabalu's discussion.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
It would be far better for all concerned if Westminster simply accepted the democratic mandate indy2 clearly has and work with the Scottish govt to facilitate a referendum.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
Yes so the Tories have a majority of MPs at Westminster and as Westminster is supreme over Holyrood on the Union, those Tory MPs and the Tory PM will continue to validly refuse an indyref2
Back on topic, the thing that really strikes me is that although 49% of Conservatives feel he is unethical, they say they are going to vote for him anyway. That means that being ethical isn't that important to them, and goes with other polls surprising to those of us who have lived and breathed democratic politics, like the French one saying that 40% would like France to be governed by a dictator. Similarly, although the hearings in the US are building a convincing case that Trump tried to seize power illegally, only IIRC 21% of the electorate say they find this very important.
I think the problem is that an awful lot of people feel that things are a bit crap and it needs a forceful leader to sort things out, never mind the details. Perhaps Putin's apparent popularity at home has a similar root - after bureacratic Brezhnev and drunken Yeltsin, Putin has a clear agenda, even if it's one that most rational people would conclude is pretty unwise and unethical.
It should go without saying that this is disturbing. Is it new, or were there always a large chunk of voters who didn't really care about ethics and morality, just deliver the tax cuts?
It's fairly new that neither side has appeared to have any ideas about how to tackle the country's problems.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Quebec's 2nd referendum was 15 years after the first referendum, not just 8 and referendums are obviously risky as the last 10 years have proved and if you are a sensible government the lesson should be going forward you avoid them where possible. We are a parliamentary democracy not a direct democracy
Anyway, greetings from Yeghegnadzor, Armenia where I have just slept, on and off, for 15 hours
Quite odd. The accumulated sleep deficit of travel, I guess. Feel fine now. Unsurprisingly refreshed
I was meaning to ask you, travelling man, after reading your social and political and cultural dispatches from Armenia, have you read A Hero of Our Time?
I have, and it’s one of my favourite Russian novels.
When I was in Tbilisi it felt terrifically Lermontov, not least because so many of those svelte young Russian officers flirting and promenading in Vladikavkaz, and admiring the peasant Circassian girls, would have come down to Tiflis for the sulfur baths (certainly Pushkin and Tolstoy did)
This is totally my new favourite part of the word. Armenia is terrifically exotic. I am 100% the only non-Armenian in this ugly yet somehow adorable little town lodged int the spectacular South Caucasus winelands
I sip the excellent white (80p a glass) and gaze out at the wheeling swallows. They play Anglo-French chill out music. The sun sets over the semi-desert and the dark green canyons and, far beyond, over distant snow-capped Ararat
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Well, look how HYUFD is trying to make up a different excuse every time.
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
Anyway, greetings from Yeghegnadzor, Armenia where I have just slept, on and off, for 15 hours
Quite odd. The accumulated sleep deficit of travel, I guess. Feel fine now. Unsurprisingly refreshed
I was meaning to ask you, travelling man, after reading your social and political and cultural dispatches from Armenia, have you read A Hero of Our Time?
I have, and it’s one of my favourite Russian novels.
When I was in Tbilisi it felt terrifically Lermontov, not least because so many of those svelte young Russian officers flirting and promenading in Vladikavkaz, and admiring the peasant Circassian girls, would have come down to Tiflis for the sulfur baths (certainly Pushkin and Tolstoy did)
This is totally my new favourite part of the word. Armenia is terrifically exotic. I am 100% the only non-Armenian in this ugly yet somehow adorable little town lodged int the spectacular South Caucasus winelands
I sip the excellent white (80p a glass) and gaze out at the wheeling swallows. They play Anglo-French chill out music. The sun sets over the semi-desert and the dark green canyons and, far beyond, over distant snow-capped Ararat
Sublime
The swallows play Anglo French chill out music?
They do when you've had a few too many 80p glasses of wine.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Quebec's 2nd referendum was 15 years after the first referendum, not just 8 and referendums are obviously risky as the last 10 years have proved and if you are a sensible government the lesson should be going forward you avoid them where possible. We are a parliamentary democracy not a direct democracy
You mean, you don't like referenda because your side might lose.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Quebec's 2nd referendum was 15 years after the first referendum, not just 8 and referendums are obviously risky as the last 10 years have proved and if you are a sensible government the lesson should be going forward you avoid them where possible. We are a parliamentary democracy not a direct democracy
Ok, well the majority of the Scottish Parliament favours independence and the vast majority of its Westminster MPs do too. So if we don’t want referendums, let’s go with that. Treaty signature on independence next week?
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Well, look how HYUFD is trying to make up a different excuse every time.
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
Personally I think the Tories will never grant another indyref2 now and Labour will only grant one if they need SNP confidence and supply to get into government. So you can whinge as much as you want but under the UK constitution based on Westminster sovereignty for the foreseeable future you Scottish Nationalists are stuffed
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Quebec's 2nd referendum was 15 years after the first referendum, not just 8 and referendums are obviously risky as the last 10 years have proved and if you are a sensible government the lesson should be going forward you avoid them where possible. We are a parliamentary democracy not a direct democracy
Ok, well the majority of the Scottish Parliament favours independence and the vast majority of its Westminster MPs do too. So if we don’t want referendums, let’s go with that. Treaty signature on independence next week?
As Mrs Thatcher herself stated* as a trigger for independence: simple majority of MPs for Scottish constituencies at Westminster.
*possibly sarcastically - but then, what other criterion was available in her time?
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Quebec's 2nd referendum was 15 years after the first referendum, not just 8 and referendums are obviously risky as the last 10 years have proved and if you are a sensible government the lesson should be going forward you avoid them where possible. We are a parliamentary democracy not a direct democracy
Ok, well the majority of the Scottish Parliament favours independence and the vast majority of its Westminster MPs do too. So if we don’t want referendums, let’s go with that. Treaty signature on independence next week?
Nope, the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster. No referendum and no change to the Union without Westminster and UK government consent.
It seems to be a bit of a hissy fit because the Minister treated the adviser's trade advice as advice, rather than letting him set policy.
Advisers advise; Ministers decide.
I'd say he was looking for an excuse, and did not find a very good one.
Have I missed something?
Far more likely the questioning by impertinent oiks was beneath him.
You keep saying this, why? Can't see anything about him to justify it
Still completely at sea as to why he should be asked about steel tariffs unless as tim has suggested on twitter Jennifer arcuri has bought a steel mill
I would be looking at what links there are between Ministers and steel magnates and those benefiting from tariffs plus what donations to the Tory party there have been from such people.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Well, look how HYUFD is trying to make up a different excuse every time.
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
Personally I think the Tories will never grant another indyref2 now and Labour will only grant one if they need SNP confidence and supply to get into government. So you can whinge as much as you want but under the UK constitution based on Westminster sovereignty for the foreseeable future you Scottish Nationalists are stuffed
The myth that, say what you like about you, you are an unfailingly polite poster, taking a battering there
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Quebec's 2nd referendum was 15 years after the first referendum, not just 8 and referendums are obviously risky as the last 10 years have proved and if you are a sensible government the lesson should be going forward you avoid them where possible. We are a parliamentary democracy not a direct democracy
Ok, well the majority of the Scottish Parliament favours independence and the vast majority of its Westminster MPs do too. So if we don’t want referendums, let’s go with that. Treaty signature on independence next week?
Nope, the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster. No referendum and no change to the Union without Westminster consent.
Time to get tough with the SNP now, NO, NO, NO!!!
You'll need to buy a new carpet at this rate. And visit the dentist. Do calm down.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Well, look how HYUFD is trying to make up a different excuse every time.
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
I really don’t understand the attitude. I’m English and I’d like to keep the Union. But it can only work if the majority of Scots want it and accept that it’s one man one vote, and in a U.K. sense there’s no such thing as Scotland (e.g. the views of the Scottish people en masse don’t count any more than the views of Yorkshire do).
Absent that consent, there must be independence. Compulsion is just imperialism.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Well, look how HYUFD is trying to make up a different excuse every time.
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
I really don’t understand the attitude. I’m English and I’d like to keep the Union. But it can only work if the majority of Scots want it and accept that it’s one man one vote, and in a U.K. sense there’s no such thing as Scotland (e.g. the views of the Scottish people en masse don’t count any more than the views of Yorkshire do).
Absent that consent, there must be independence. Compulsion is just imperialism.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Well, look how HYUFD is trying to make up a different excuse every time.
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
I really don’t understand the attitude. I’m English and I’d like to keep the Union. But it can only work if the majority of Scots want it and accept that it’s one man one vote, and in a U.K. sense there’s no such thing as Scotland (e.g. the views of the Scottish people en masse don’t count any more than the views of Yorkshire do).
Absent that consent, there must be independence. Compulsion is just imperialism.
Er, one person one vote, but yes.
Yeah ok, we can keep votes for women if you insist…..
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Well, look how HYUFD is trying to make up a different excuse every time.
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
I really don’t understand the attitude. I’m English and I’d like to keep the Union. But it can only work if the majority of Scots want it and accept that it’s one man one vote, and in a U.K. sense there’s no such thing as Scotland (e.g. the views of the Scottish people en masse don’t count any more than the views of Yorkshire do).
Absent that consent, there must be independence. Compulsion is just imperialism.
No, if we really were going to impose imperialism we would scrap Holyrood, arrest Sturgeon for sedition and treason against the Crown's government Madrid style and impose direct rule on Scotland from Westminster having kicked out all Scottish MPs from the Commons first.
Merely refusing indyref2 is a mild response by comparison and as the Yougov poll from 2 years ago I posted showed most Scots do not want indyref2 before the next general election in 2024
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Well, look how HYUFD is trying to make up a different excuse every time.
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
I really don’t understand the attitude. I’m English and I’d like to keep the Union. But it can only work if the majority of Scots want it and accept that it’s one man one vote, and in a U.K. sense there’s no such thing as Scotland (e.g. the views of the Scottish people en masse don’t count any more than the views of Yorkshire do).
Absent that consent, there must be independence. Compulsion is just imperialism.
No, if we really were going to impose imperialism we would scrap Holyrood, arrest Sturgeon for sedition Madrid style and impose direct rule on Scotland from Westminster having kicked out all Scottish MPs from the Commons first.
Merely refusing indyref2 is a mild response by comparison and as the Yougov poll from 2 years ago I posted showed most Scots do not want indyref2 before the next general election in 2024
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum
So? We can vote for what we want and if you limit these things then something has to give. There is this thijng called 'progress' and 'change'. If Henry VIII thought like you do, you would be telling us all about the indisputable supremacy of the Roman Church and the wisdom of the pope.
Both you and HYUFD have a point.
HYUFD is correct in stating that, insofar as I'm aware, the constitution is reserved to Westminster and the Scottish Parliament - as a limited body, which derives what authority it has from Westminster - can't legislate to do what it likes in this regard, any more than it can vote to sign up to the European Economic Area, make Andy Murray the President or declare war on Rutland. These issues are outside of its current competence.
What it can do, however, assuming that it asks Westminster to give it what it wants and is rebuffed, is then to turn to its own people to demand change through protest. If enough of the Scottish people demand a vote then Westminster may back down; if support for secession becomes overwhelming then the Scottish Parliament could also attempt UDI, i.e. initiate a revolution and dare the British Government to try to stop it. Thus, both sides have recourse.
What the Scottish Government cannot do is claim that its own authority is sufficient to do whatever it likes, without reference to anyone else. The law of the UK, of which it is a subsidiary part, doesn't give it that right; the Scottish people, when given the opportunity to declare sovereignty, also refused to give it that right; and there's presently no evidence of which I am aware to suggest that a settled majority in Scotland wants to have a further tilt at independence. Like it or not, that is how things appear to stand at present.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
My understanding of the situation (which is necessarily limited: I don't live up there and I don't follow the latest Edinburgh goings on especially closely) is that the First Minister shows no signs of publishing legislation to hold a second referendum, and nor will she disclose the full details of legal advice as to her chances of getting such legislation to stand if she attempts to pass it without the consent of Westminster (where the current Government, at least, will always respond patiently with the "once in a generation" argument.) Instead, the Scottish electorate is to be treated to a steady trickle of policy papers, containing revelations that will hopefully make them yearn to vote Yes when the blessed day finally dawns.
I'm not in the same camp as those who treat Sturgeon almost as some kind of closet Unionist (or, at any rate, as someone who is way too comfortable with the status quo.) I believe that she wants to go. But I also believe that she is foot-dragging, because she's not stupid and can read the mood of her own party and the public. Consider:
1. Sturgeon manages to deliver a second referendum that available evidence suggests most Scottish voters don't want right now. There then follows a very significant risk of a second defeat. Her career ends in failure as per her predecessor's, and the ultimate goal could recede significantly further into the distance (I'm not convinced that Scotland and Quebec are directly comparable in this sense, but you can understand why she might be worried about this) 2. Sturgeon fails to deliver a second referendum, most likely because she tries to hold one but Westminster stonewalls her, the courts strike it down, and a majority of the Scottish population shrugs rather than responds with thwarted rage - in which case, what is either her leadership or her party for? Cue internecine conflict over direction and strategy within the party, and voter defections without
In short, I think that Sturgeon likely views conditions as not presently being propitious for a rematch of 2014, and that she is therefore stalling in the hope that something will turn up to render them so.
Yes, she has to Walk The Line and it's a very tricky one. Agitate for the Ref and at the same time build support for Yes such that the upside (the chance of realizing the dream) exceeds the downside (the risk of killing the dream).
It's going to be fascinating to track. She's up against it but she's pretty good.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yep, in fact not all Unionists are cowardly hypocrites, some of them while against Indy are part of the majority that think that the SG has a mandate to hold another referendum.
'Is there a mandate for IndyRef2? Evidence from the Scottish Election Study
Across the board we see that following the 2021 election, majorities in all conditions thought there was a mandate for a second referendum, whether they received the neutral prompt (55%), the SNP fell short prompt (53%) and the pro-independence parties won a majority prompt (61%).'
I personally can't see how there isn't a mandate. Those figs show how big the challenge for Sturgeon is though. 45% are so anti independence they won't even recognize she's just won an election with the Ref commitment front and centre. Then, as you say, amongst the 55% are those like David on here - unionists with a streak of liking democracy, plus who think the Ref should be soon because they'd win again and that nails it.
As for Leon's question on how her "new" focus on Sindy will affect the polls, I have no clue. What do you think?
Fairly certain it'll be more stalemate; until a roadmap with a date happens there's not much point in anyone making a leap of faith or retreating cowering into a fetal position.
What I am convinced of is that the neverendum guys don't want one because they'd have to defend their record of the last 8 years, make their case without two major foundation stones (EU membership, stability) and with no real big beasts to trumpet their cause, and that's before we get to the fat, lying, albino elephant in the room.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Well, look how HYUFD is trying to make up a different excuse every time.
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
I really don’t understand the attitude. I’m English and I’d like to keep the Union. But it can only work if the majority of Scots want it and accept that it’s one man one vote, and in a U.K. sense there’s no such thing as Scotland (e.g. the views of the Scottish people en masse don’t count any more than the views of Yorkshire do).
Absent that consent, there must be independence. Compulsion is just imperialism.
No, if we really were going to impose imperialism we would scrap Holyrood, arrest Sturgeon for sedition and treason against the Crown's government Madrid style and impose direct rule on Scotland from Westminster having kicked out all Scottish MPs from the Commons first.
Merely refusing indyref2 is a mild response by comparison and as the Yougov poll from 2 years ago I posted showed most Scots do not want indyref2 before the next general election in 2024
I still think the win/win answer for England and Wales is to tell the Scots that if they go they must take NI with them.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Well, look how HYUFD is trying to make up a different excuse every time.
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
Personally I think the Tories will never grant another indyref2 now and Labour will only grant one if they need SNP confidence and supply to get into government. So you can whinge as much as you want but under the UK constitution based on Westminster sovereignty for the foreseeable future you Scottish Nationalists are stuffed
The myth that, say what you like about you, you are an unfailingly polite poster, taking a battering there
There is a difference between being firm and persistent swearing, just because I am not personally abusive or swearing frequently does not mean I am weak either
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum
So? We can vote for what we want and if you limit these things then something has to give. There is this thijng called 'progress' and 'change'. If Henry VIII thought like you do, you would be telling us all about the indisputable supremacy of the Roman Church and the wisdom of the pope.
Both you and HYUFD have a point.
HYUFD is correct in stating that, insofar as I'm aware, the constitution is reserved to Westminster and the Scottish Parliament - as a limited body, which derives what authority it has from Westminster - can't legislate to do what it likes in this regard, any more than it can vote to sign up to the European Economic Area, make Andy Murray the President or declare war on Rutland. These issues are outside of its current competence.
What it can do, however, assuming that it asks Westminster to give it what it wants and is rebuffed, is then to turn to its own people to demand change through protest. If enough of the Scottish people demand a vote then Westminster may back down; if support for secession becomes overwhelming then the Scottish Parliament could also attempt UDI, i.e. initiate a revolution and dare the British Government to try to stop it. Thus, both sides have recourse.
What the Scottish Government cannot do is claim that its own authority is sufficient to do whatever it likes, without reference to anyone else. The law of the UK, of which it is a subsidiary part, doesn't give it that right; the Scottish people, when given the opportunity to declare sovereignty, also refused to give it that right; and there's presently no evidence of which I am aware to suggest that a settled majority in Scotland wants to have a further tilt at independence. Like it or not, that is how things appear to stand at present.
You're, er, forgetting the last two parliamentary elections and the mandate for a referendum within the manifestoes. It's an important distinction - compare, for instance the criterion on whether a Westminster bill can or can't be rejected by the Lords, which hinges in part on whether it is in the manifesto.
As predicted by fluffy tailed me yesterday, the government could not survive flying anyone to Rwanda and then having to fly them back, as they promised the UK judges they would if the scheme is ruled illegal.
So, oh so quietly today, ALL Rwanda flights have been abandoned until the legal ruling. (Stick that on your front page Daily Mail).
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Well, look how HYUFD is trying to make up a different excuse every time.
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
I really don’t understand the attitude. I’m English and I’d like to keep the Union. But it can only work if the majority of Scots want it and accept that it’s one man one vote, and in a U.K. sense there’s no such thing as Scotland (e.g. the views of the Scottish people en masse don’t count any more than the views of Yorkshire do).
Absent that consent, there must be independence. Compulsion is just imperialism.
No, if we really were going to impose imperialism we would scrap Holyrood, arrest Sturgeon for sedition and treason against the Crown's government Madrid style and impose direct rule on Scotland from Westminster having kicked out all Scottish MPs from the Commons first.
Merely refusing indyref2 is a mild response by comparison and as the Yougov poll from 2 years ago I posted showed most Scots do not want indyref2 before the next general election in 2024
I still think the win/win answer for England and Wales is to tell the Scots that if they go they must take NI with them.
Or you move all the Unionists from NI to Scotland and kill 2 birds with 1 stone as most of them have Scottish ancestry
meanwhile back at the ranch . . . or rather the Last Frontier . . . .
On Wed, Alaska Dept of Elections released second unofficial, partial vote count for June 11's very Special Congressional Primary, here are the top 5 candidates so far (top 4 advance to Aug 16 special general election):
Total ballots counted as of June 15 = 134,179 (22.9% of statewide active registered voters) > estimated 83% of final expected primary turnout
Sarah Palin - Republican = 37,741 (28.3%) Nick Begich - Republican = 25,766 (19.2%) Al Gross - Nonpartisan = 17,037 (12.7%) Mary Peltola - Democratic = 11,863 (8.9%)
Tara Sweeney - Republican = 7,484 (6.6%) Santa Claus - Undeclared = 6,070 (4.5%) other 42 candidates on ballot = 28,218 (21.0%)
Check out link for map of these results by state house district.
My own fearless forecast, based on above, is that Nick Begich will be ultimate special election victor in August. On grounds that it will be difficult (to put it mildly) for any Democrat (including 2020Dem nominee Gross) to prevail in the final round. AND that Begich will prove WAY more transfer-friendly than Palin.
However, the order in which the bottom two candidates get eliminated could prove decisive to the outcome. Depending on patterns of vote transfers AND of non-transferable votes.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Well, look how HYUFD is trying to make up a different excuse every time.
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
I really don’t understand the attitude. I’m English and I’d like to keep the Union. But it can only work if the majority of Scots want it and accept that it’s one man one vote, and in a U.K. sense there’s no such thing as Scotland (e.g. the views of the Scottish people en masse don’t count any more than the views of Yorkshire do).
Absent that consent, there must be independence. Compulsion is just imperialism.
No, if we really were going to impose imperialism we would scrap Holyrood, arrest Sturgeon for sedition Madrid style and impose direct rule on Scotland from Westminster having kicked out all Scottish MPs from the Commons first.
Merely refusing indyref2 is a mild response by comparison and as the Yougov poll from 2 years ago I posted showed most Scots do not want indyref2 before the next general election in 2024
That fucking DISGUSTING infill of a beautiful bridge must be reversed (tho again there were “2 people” who thought it was fine, against 900 who did not, who are they??)
But the question is: how did this even happen? It seems to be a peculiarly British thing. A philistine disgust at beautiful things so we treat them with overt contempt. Like Scousers booing a lovely hymn
I cannot think of any advanced culture that does this, except for ones warped by political doctrine, like the church-hating states of the Soviet Union or the iconoclasts of Mao’s Cultural Revolution in China, but even they have now all wised up
Totally agreed on reversing the infill -- for me the main reason is that I don't think we should let people get away with sidestepping rules by presenting that kind of "oops, but it's done now, so here we are, let's just move on, eh?" fait accompli to society. (I agree on aesthetic and don't-prevent-railway-reinstatement grounds too.) "Whoops, this listed but expensive-to-convert building seems to have suffered a convenient arson attack" is another on similar lines.
Not sure Britain is alone in this -- Japan has some nasty examples too, where the "construction state" builds new stuff and bulldozes the old. For instance the historic Nihonbashi bridge in Tokyo currently has an expressway running over the top of it so low that the ornate iron lampposts of the old bridge have had to be carefully fitted in the gap between expressway carriageways. The original Frank Lloyd Wright designed Imperial Hotel is another -- replaced with a dull modern hotel.
Edit: Alex Kerr's _Dogs and Demons_ has a section on this sort of Japanese architectural vandalism, I think.
I have read that the Japanese regard buildings as pretty transient things with a 50 year design life so perhaps the build quality isn't great
Regular earthquakes and tsunamis will have that psychological effect on the attitude to the built environment.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Well, look how HYUFD is trying to make up a different excuse every time.
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
Personally I think the Tories will never grant another indyref2 now and Labour will only grant one if they need SNP confidence and supply to get into government. So you can whinge as much as you want but under the UK constitution based on Westminster sovereignty for the foreseeable future you Scottish Nationalists are stuffed
The myth that, say what you like about you, you are an unfailingly polite poster, taking a battering there
There is a difference between being firm and persistent swearing, just because I am not personally abusive or swearing frequently does not mean I am weak either
Who the fuck said anything about swearing? Dismissing a reasoned argument against you as whingeing is simply bloody discourteous. Swearing doesn't come in to it.
That fucking DISGUSTING infill of a beautiful bridge must be reversed (tho again there were “2 people” who thought it was fine, against 900 who did not, who are they??)
But the question is: how did this even happen? It seems to be a peculiarly British thing. A philistine disgust at beautiful things so we treat them with overt contempt. Like Scousers booing a lovely hymn
I cannot think of any advanced culture that does this, except for ones warped by political doctrine, like the church-hating states of the Soviet Union or the iconoclasts of Mao’s Cultural Revolution in China, but even they have now all wised up
Totally agreed on reversing the infill -- for me the main reason is that I don't think we should let people get away with sidestepping rules by presenting that kind of "oops, but it's done now, so here we are, let's just move on, eh?" fait accompli to society. (I agree on aesthetic and don't-prevent-railway-reinstatement grounds too.) "Whoops, this listed but expensive-to-convert building seems to have suffered a convenient arson attack" is another on similar lines.
Not sure Britain is alone in this -- Japan has some nasty examples too, where the "construction state" builds new stuff and bulldozes the old. For instance the historic Nihonbashi bridge in Tokyo currently has an expressway running over the top of it so low that the ornate iron lampposts of the old bridge have had to be carefully fitted in the gap between expressway carriageways. The original Frank Lloyd Wright designed Imperial Hotel is another -- replaced with a dull modern hotel.
Edit: Alex Kerr's _Dogs and Demons_ has a section on this sort of Japanese architectural vandalism, I think.
I have read that the Japanese regard buildings as pretty transient things with a 50 year design life so perhaps the build quality isn't great
Regular earthquakes and tsunamis will have that psychological effect on the attitude to the built environment.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Well, look how HYUFD is trying to make up a different excuse every time.
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
Personally I think the Tories will never grant another indyref2 now and Labour will only grant one if they need SNP confidence and supply to get into government. So you can whinge as much as you want but under the UK constitution based on Westminster sovereignty for the foreseeable future you Scottish Nationalists are stuffed
The myth that, say what you like about you, you are an unfailingly polite poster, taking a battering there
There is a difference between being firm and persistent swearing, just because I am not personally abusive or swearing frequently does not mean I am weak either
Who the fuck said anything about swearing? Dismissing a reasoned argument against you as whingeing is simply bloody discourteous. Swearing doesn't come in to it.
Well if standing up to the SNP is discourteous tough, I will be as discourteous as possible. I am sick to death with Sturgeon's whinging, it is time the UK government told her to firmly put a sock in it and ignored her and her demands and at least on that Boris is 100% correct. She had her once in a generation referendum in 2014 and she lost it, she ain't getting another anytime soon!!
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
To be fair to @HYUFD it is the You Gov poll from 2 days ago
YouGov
Jun 14 Should Scotland be an independent country? (18-23 May)
Yes: 45% (-2 from Nov) No: 55% (+2)
In principle, do Scots think there should/not be a Scottish independence referendum...
This year: 18% should / 71% should not
In 2023: 28% / 59%
In the next 5 years: 42% / 41%
4:15 PM · Jun 14, 2022
That’s a pretty solid majority of Scotland that does not want a referendum next year; 41% basically never
My guess is that the SNP will take a hit in the polls, but not a huge hit - a few points. Sturgeon is still personally popular, Boris is personally loathed, she can rely on that
Furthermore, my guess is that Sturgeon knows all this. She knows she can’t call a vote now, neither legally nor politically (far too risky; likely to lose) but to prevent the Nats splitting, she will pretend to go all out for one, relying on her personal standing to smooth out the bumps
Final guess: Sturgeon is in her own endgame. She wants to retire to a new job, but keeping the indy torch aflame (ie by not forcing a catastrophically lost indyref2)
The next Scottish vote will come some time around 2030 or beyond
If no-one wants indyref2 apparently, have it anyway, and everyone can say they didn't want it, and Yes will be smashed.
The reality is plenty want it and plenty want Yes. It might not be a majority, but the reason the UK aren't going to let it happen is because it would be a near 50:50 coin toss, or maybe very slightly more favourable for no than that. But who's going to take the risk in HMG? They already fucked up with Brexit, didn't they.
meanwhile back at the ranch . . . or rather the Last Frontier . . . .
On Wed, Alaska Dept of Elections released second unofficial, partial vote count for June 11's very Special Congressional Primary, here are the top 5 candidates so far (top 4 advance to Aug 16 special general election):
Total ballots counted as of June 15 = 134,179 (22.9% of statewide active registered voters) > estimated 83% of final expected primary turnout
Sarah Palin - Republican = 37,741 (28.3%) Nick Begich - Republican = 25,766 (19.2%) Al Gross - Nonpartisan = 17,037 (12.7%) Mary Peltola - Democratic = 11,863 (8.9%)
Tara Sweeney - Republican = 7,484 (6.6%) Santa Claus - Undeclared = 6,070 (4.5%) other 42 candidates on ballot = 28,218 (21.0%)
Check out link for map of these results by state house district.
My own fearless forecast, based on above, is that Nick Begich will be ultimate special election victor in August. On grounds that it will be difficult (to put it mildly) for any Democrat (including 2020Dem nominee Gross) to prevail in the final round. AND that Begich will prove WAY more transfer-friendly than Palin.
However, the order in which the bottom two candidates get eliminated could prove decisive to the outcome. Depending on patterns of vote transfers AND of non-transferable votes.
So hold on to your mukluks!
Santa Claus 4.5% is very good, he'd almost keep his deposit in the UK
Unless you fabricated him to see who was paying attention
That fucking DISGUSTING infill of a beautiful bridge must be reversed (tho again there were “2 people” who thought it was fine, against 900 who did not, who are they??)
But the question is: how did this even happen? It seems to be a peculiarly British thing. A philistine disgust at beautiful things so we treat them with overt contempt. Like Scousers booing a lovely hymn
I cannot think of any advanced culture that does this, except for ones warped by political doctrine, like the church-hating states of the Soviet Union or the iconoclasts of Mao’s Cultural Revolution in China, but even they have now all wised up
Totally agreed on reversing the infill -- for me the main reason is that I don't think we should let people get away with sidestepping rules by presenting that kind of "oops, but it's done now, so here we are, let's just move on, eh?" fait accompli to society. (I agree on aesthetic and don't-prevent-railway-reinstatement grounds too.) "Whoops, this listed but expensive-to-convert building seems to have suffered a convenient arson attack" is another on similar lines.
Not sure Britain is alone in this -- Japan has some nasty examples too, where the "construction state" builds new stuff and bulldozes the old. For instance the historic Nihonbashi bridge in Tokyo currently has an expressway running over the top of it so low that the ornate iron lampposts of the old bridge have had to be carefully fitted in the gap between expressway carriageways. The original Frank Lloyd Wright designed Imperial Hotel is another -- replaced with a dull modern hotel.
Edit: Alex Kerr's _Dogs and Demons_ has a section on this sort of Japanese architectural vandalism, I think.
I have read that the Japanese regard buildings as pretty transient things with a 50 year design life so perhaps the build quality isn't great
Regular earthquakes and tsunamis will have that psychological effect on the attitude to the built environment.
Very good point
Yes, and fires, because the Japanese build in wood (which survives better in earthquakes) but wood decays quick. And burns
So much of Japanese culture comes down to this underlying factor of impernance. The haiku is all about melancholic loss and the fleeting futility of everything. All you have is the moment. The perfect taste of miso, the single perfect flower arrangement (that lasts a day), the geisha girl who begins to age the day she gets the job
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yep, in fact not all Unionists are cowardly hypocrites, some of them while against Indy are part of the majority that think that the SG has a mandate to hold another referendum.
'Is there a mandate for IndyRef2? Evidence from the Scottish Election Study
Across the board we see that following the 2021 election, majorities in all conditions thought there was a mandate for a second referendum, whether they received the neutral prompt (55%), the SNP fell short prompt (53%) and the pro-independence parties won a majority prompt (61%).'
I personally can't see how there isn't a mandate. Those figs show how big the challenge for Sturgeon is though. 45% are so anti independence they won't even recognize she's just won an election with the Ref commitment front and centre. Then, as you say, amongst the 55% are those like David on here - unionists with a streak of liking democracy, plus who think the Ref should be soon because they'd win again and that nails it.
As for Leon's question on how her "new" focus on Sindy will affect the polls, I have no clue. What do you think?
Fairly certain it'll be more stalemate; until a roadmap with a date happens there's not much point in anyone making a leap of faith or retreating cowering into a fetal position.
What I am convinced of is that the neverendum guys don't want one because they'd have to defend their record of the last 8 years, make their case without two major foundation stones (EU membership, stability) and with no real big beasts to trumpet their cause, and that's before we get to the fat, lying, albino elephant in the room.
Yep these last few years of Westminster must surely play for Yes. It's like 2014 happened and you failed to leave and we went, "ok good, let's piss all over them now then, it'll be a right laugh!"
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
To be fair to @HYUFD it is the You Gov poll from 2 days ago
YouGov
Jun 14 Should Scotland be an independent country? (18-23 May)
Yes: 45% (-2 from Nov) No: 55% (+2)
In principle, do Scots think there should/not be a Scottish independence referendum...
This year: 18% should / 71% should not
In 2023: 28% / 59%
In the next 5 years: 42% / 41%
4:15 PM · Jun 14, 2022
That essentially is a poll asking people what they are going to think in X years time.Then interesting question is in how many years time people will want a poll 'this year'. To which I suspect the answer will be 'Never' or 'Don't know and can't know about unknowable future contingents'.
meanwhile back at the ranch . . . or rather the Last Frontier . . . .
On Wed, Alaska Dept of Elections released second unofficial, partial vote count for June 11's very Special Congressional Primary, here are the top 5 candidates so far (top 4 advance to Aug 16 special general election):
Total ballots counted as of June 15 = 134,179 (22.9% of statewide active registered voters) > estimated 83% of final expected primary turnout
Sarah Palin - Republican = 37,741 (28.3%) Nick Begich - Republican = 25,766 (19.2%) Al Gross - Nonpartisan = 17,037 (12.7%) Mary Peltola - Democratic = 11,863 (8.9%)
Tara Sweeney - Republican = 7,484 (6.6%) Santa Claus - Undeclared = 6,070 (4.5%) other 42 candidates on ballot = 28,218 (21.0%)
Check out link for map of these results by state house district.
My own fearless forecast, based on above, is that Nick Begich will be ultimate special election victor in August. On grounds that it will be difficult (to put it mildly) for any Democrat (including 2020Dem nominee Gross) to prevail in the final round. AND that Begich will prove WAY more transfer-friendly than Palin.
However, the order in which the bottom two candidates get eliminated could prove decisive to the outcome. Depending on patterns of vote transfers AND of non-transferable votes.
So hold on to your mukluks!
Santa Claus 4.5% is very good, he'd almost keep his deposit in the UK
Unless you fabricated him to see who was paying attention
Santa fabricated himself.
He's a member of the North Pole, Alaska city council. And a declared democratic socialist.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yep, in fact not all Unionists are cowardly hypocrites, some of them while against Indy are part of the majority that think that the SG has a mandate to hold another referendum.
'Is there a mandate for IndyRef2? Evidence from the Scottish Election Study
Across the board we see that following the 2021 election, majorities in all conditions thought there was a mandate for a second referendum, whether they received the neutral prompt (55%), the SNP fell short prompt (53%) and the pro-independence parties won a majority prompt (61%).'
I personally can't see how there isn't a mandate. Those figs show how big the challenge for Sturgeon is though. 45% are so anti independence they won't even recognize she's just won an election with the Ref commitment front and centre. Then, as you say, amongst the 55% are those like David on here - unionists with a streak of liking democracy, plus who think the Ref should be soon because they'd win again and that nails it.
As for Leon's question on how her "new" focus on Sindy will affect the polls, I have no clue. What do you think?
Fairly certain it'll be more stalemate; until a roadmap with a date happens there's not much point in anyone making a leap of faith or retreating cowering into a fetal position.
What I am convinced of is that the neverendum guys don't want one because they'd have to defend their record of the last 8 years, make their case without two major foundation stones (EU membership, stability) and with no real big beasts to trumpet their cause, and that's before we get to the fat, lying, albino elephant in the room.
Yep these last few years of Westminster must surely play for Yes. It's like 2014 happened and you failed to leave and we went, "ok good, let's piss all over them now then, it'll be a right laugh!"
Always worth recalling that big beast of the Union JK Rowling's words from 2014. I daresay she'll play a part again if she can tear herself away from asking if women have penises.
"I’ve heard it said that ‘we’ve got to leave, because they’ll punish us if we don’t’, but my guess is that if we vote to stay, we will be in the heady position of the spouse who looked like walking out, but decided to give things one last go. All the major political parties are currently wooing us with offers of extra powers, keen to keep Scotland happy so that it does not hold an independence referendum every ten years and cause uncertainty and turmoil all over again. I doubt whether we will ever have been more popular, or in a better position to dictate terms, than if we vote to stay."
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Well, look how HYUFD is trying to make up a different excuse every time.
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
I really don’t understand the attitude. I’m English and I’d like to keep the Union. But it can only work if the majority of Scots want it and accept that it’s one man one vote, and in a U.K. sense there’s no such thing as Scotland (e.g. the views of the Scottish people en masse don’t count any more than the views of Yorkshire do).
Absent that consent, there must be independence. Compulsion is just imperialism.
No, if we really were going to impose imperialism we would scrap Holyrood, arrest Sturgeon for sedition Madrid style and impose direct rule on Scotland from Westminster having kicked out all Scottish MPs from the Commons first.
Merely refusing indyref2 is a mild response by comparison and as the Yougov poll from 2 years ago I posted showed most Scots do not want indyref2 before the next general election in 2024
Anyway, greetings from Yeghegnadzor, Armenia where I have just slept, on and off, for 15 hours
Quite odd. The accumulated sleep deficit of travel, I guess. Feel fine now. Unsurprisingly refreshed
I was meaning to ask you, travelling man, after reading your social and political and cultural dispatches from Armenia, have you read A Hero of Our Time?
I have, and it’s one of my favourite Russian novels.
When I was in Tbilisi it felt terrifically Lermontov, not least because so many of those svelte young Russian officers flirting and promenading in Vladikavkaz, and admiring the peasant Circassian girls, would have come down to Tiflis for the sulfur baths (certainly Pushkin and Tolstoy did)
This is totally my new favourite part of the word. Armenia is terrifically exotic. I am 100% the only non-Armenian in this ugly yet somehow adorable little town lodged int the spectacular South Caucasus winelands
I sip the excellent white (80p a glass) and gaze out at the wheeling swallows. They play Anglo-French chill out music. The sun sets over the semi-desert and the dark green canyons and, far beyond, over distant snow-capped Ararat
Sublime
Splendid! It’s my favourite Russian novel too, apart from Anna Karenina and The Idiot and Master and Margaret, The White Guard, and Brothers Karasimov.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum
So? We can vote for what we want and if you limit these things then something has to give. There is this thijng called 'progress' and 'change'. If Henry VIII thought like you do, you would be telling us all about the indisputable supremacy of the Roman Church and the wisdom of the pope.
Both you and HYUFD have a point.
HYUFD is correct in stating that, insofar as I'm aware, the constitution is reserved to Westminster and the Scottish Parliament - as a limited body, which derives what authority it has from Westminster - can't legislate to do what it likes in this regard, any more than it can vote to sign up to the European Economic Area, make Andy Murray the President or declare war on Rutland. These issues are outside of its current competence.
What it can do, however, assuming that it asks Westminster to give it what it wants and is rebuffed, is then to turn to its own people to demand change through protest. If enough of the Scottish people demand a vote then Westminster may back down; if support for secession becomes overwhelming then the Scottish Parliament could also attempt UDI, i.e. initiate a revolution and dare the British Government to try to stop it. Thus, both sides have recourse.
What the Scottish Government cannot do is claim that its own authority is sufficient to do whatever it likes, without reference to anyone else. The law of the UK, of which it is a subsidiary part, doesn't give it that right; the Scottish people, when given the opportunity to declare sovereignty, also refused to give it that right; and there's presently no evidence of which I am aware to suggest that a settled majority in Scotland wants to have a further tilt at independence. Like it or not, that is how things appear to stand at present.
You're, er, forgetting the last two parliamentary elections and the mandate for a referendum within the manifestoes. It's an important distinction - compare, for instance the criterion on whether a Westminster bill can or can't be rejected by the Lords, which hinges in part on whether it is in the manifesto.
Did everybody who voted for the SNP in recent electoral cycles want another vote on independence though? Almost certainly not. Indeed, is there a burning desire sweeping the land to have this argument out again, this year or next? You tell me.
That fucking DISGUSTING infill of a beautiful bridge must be reversed (tho again there were “2 people” who thought it was fine, against 900 who did not, who are they??)
But the question is: how did this even happen? It seems to be a peculiarly British thing. A philistine disgust at beautiful things so we treat them with overt contempt. Like Scousers booing a lovely hymn
I cannot think of any advanced culture that does this, except for ones warped by political doctrine, like the church-hating states of the Soviet Union or the iconoclasts of Mao’s Cultural Revolution in China, but even they have now all wised up
Totally agreed on reversing the infill -- for me the main reason is that I don't think we should let people get away with sidestepping rules by presenting that kind of "oops, but it's done now, so here we are, let's just move on, eh?" fait accompli to society. (I agree on aesthetic and don't-prevent-railway-reinstatement grounds too.) "Whoops, this listed but expensive-to-convert building seems to have suffered a convenient arson attack" is another on similar lines.
Not sure Britain is alone in this -- Japan has some nasty examples too, where the "construction state" builds new stuff and bulldozes the old. For instance the historic Nihonbashi bridge in Tokyo currently has an expressway running over the top of it so low that the ornate iron lampposts of the old bridge have had to be carefully fitted in the gap between expressway carriageways. The original Frank Lloyd Wright designed Imperial Hotel is another -- replaced with a dull modern hotel.
Edit: Alex Kerr's _Dogs and Demons_ has a section on this sort of Japanese architectural vandalism, I think.
I have read that the Japanese regard buildings as pretty transient things with a 50 year design life so perhaps the build quality isn't great
Regular earthquakes and tsunamis will have that psychological effect on the attitude to the built environment.
Very good point
Yes, and fires, because the Japanese build in wood (which survives better in earthquakes) but wood decays quick. And burns
So much of Japanese culture comes down to this underlying factor of impernance. The haiku is all about melancholic loss and the fleeting futility of everything. All you have is the moment. The perfect taste of miso, the single perfect flower arrangement (that lasts a day), the geisha girl who begins to age the day she gets the job
The fall of the cherry blossom: look at this aircraft they built, named 'Cherry Blossom'. It had no undercarriage (and some versions had no motor, being gliders). The nose housed a large high explosive warhead. Guess the function, in 1945 ...
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yep, in fact not all Unionists are cowardly hypocrites, some of them while against Indy are part of the majority that think that the SG has a mandate to hold another referendum.
'Is there a mandate for IndyRef2? Evidence from the Scottish Election Study
Across the board we see that following the 2021 election, majorities in all conditions thought there was a mandate for a second referendum, whether they received the neutral prompt (55%), the SNP fell short prompt (53%) and the pro-independence parties won a majority prompt (61%).'
I'm not a fan of the word mandate, which I find is often overused or misused, but at the end of the day if the elected parliament in Scotland wants one it seems reasonable that it happen, though sadly I'm far from confident unionists would win it. I can understand the 'just ignore it' strategy that is employed, but something has to give eventually.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yep, in fact not all Unionists are cowardly hypocrites, some of them while against Indy are part of the majority that think that the SG has a mandate to hold another referendum.
'Is there a mandate for IndyRef2? Evidence from the Scottish Election Study
Across the board we see that following the 2021 election, majorities in all conditions thought there was a mandate for a second referendum, whether they received the neutral prompt (55%), the SNP fell short prompt (53%) and the pro-independence parties won a majority prompt (61%).'
I personally can't see how there isn't a mandate. Those figs show how big the challenge for Sturgeon is though. 45% are so anti independence they won't even recognize she's just won an election with the Ref commitment front and centre. Then, as you say, amongst the 55% are those like David on here - unionists with a streak of liking democracy, plus who think the Ref should be soon because they'd win again and that nails it.
As for Leon's question on how her "new" focus on Sindy will affect the polls, I have no clue. What do you think?
Fairly certain it'll be more stalemate; until a roadmap with a date happens there's not much point in anyone making a leap of faith or retreating cowering into a fetal position.
What I am convinced of is that the neverendum guys don't want one because they'd have to defend their record of the last 8 years, make their case without two major foundation stones (EU membership, stability) and with no real big beasts to trumpet their cause, and that's before we get to the fat, lying, albino elephant in the room.
Yep these last few years of Westminster must surely play for Yes. It's like 2014 happened and you failed to leave and we went, "ok good, let's piss all over them now then, it'll be a right laugh!"
But isn't that Sturgeon's dilemma? If ever conditions were ripe for independence, it's right now. Brexit. Boris. UK economy tanking. If I lived in Scotland, I'd be sorely tempted. Yet the polls indicate little, if any shift, towards independence since 2014, don't they? And if Labour is in government after 2024, I suspect the proportion in favour of independence will reduce, albeit marginally.
Back on topic, the thing that really strikes me is that although 49% of Conservatives feel he is unethical, they say they are going to vote for him anyway. That means that being ethical isn't that important to them, and goes with other polls surprising to those of us who have lived and breathed democratic politics, like the French one saying that 40% would like France to be governed by a dictator. Similarly, although the hearings in the US are building a convincing case that Trump tried to seize power illegally, only IIRC 21% of the electorate say they find this very important.
I think the problem is that an awful lot of people feel that things are a bit crap and it needs a forceful leader to sort things out, never mind the details. Perhaps Putin's apparent popularity at home has a similar root - after bureacratic Brezhnev and drunken Yeltsin, Putin has a clear agenda, even if it's one that most rational people would conclude is pretty unwise and unethical.
It should go without saying that this is disturbing. Is it new, or were there always a large chunk of voters who didn't really care about ethics and morality, just deliver the tax cuts?
The problem here, is that for a lot of voters; politics is about choosing between various bad options. Even if you detest Johnson and don't agree with a lot of what is going on with the government, it could still seem to you like the alternative is even worse. This is perhaps behind the resilience of the Conservative vote. People don't like the alternatives. And there aren't really any alternatives on the political right, anyway.
Edit: Alex Kerr's _Dogs and Demons_ has a section on this sort of Japanese architectural vandalism, I think.
I have read that the Japanese regard buildings as pretty transient things with a 50 year design life so perhaps the build quality isn't great
Regular earthquakes and tsunamis will have that psychological effect on the attitude to the built environment.
Wright's Imperial Hotel survived the earthquake of 1923 and the ensuing fires, and the WW2 firebombings before being taken down in the name of progress...
It's been a while since I read Kerr's book, but IIRC he teases out a couple of different causes:
1: a state which got into the mindset of "the first priority is to build up the nation (modernisation, militarisation, building up tech for exports" in the Meiji period and never gor out of it, even decades later when Japan wasn't in such a weak position and a shift in balance from "exports matter more than anything else, build those factories" to "we consider well being and quality of life of our citizens, maybe we should have better planning controls and pollution regulations" was well overdue
2. a nice political self-supporting loop where the government (specifically the LDP) embarks on construction schemes in rural districts that provide contracts for construction firms (who then support LDP MPs) and jobs (for people who then vote LDP). This tends to result in unnecessary bridges, flood control schemes and dams out in the countryside
(Kerr's book is a polemic, but it's an entertaining read, and a useful corrective to the more rose-tinted view it's easy to pick up as a tourist.)
It's true that residential housing has a short lifespan there. My take is that that is caused by a vicious circle: housing stock is poor quality, so it is worth very little (the land is the bulk of the value on resale); so there's less incentive to put money into building a good house or improving an older one (it's a strictly depreciating asset); so housing stock remains poor quality.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum
So? We can vote for what we want and if you limit these things then something has to give. There is this thijng called 'progress' and 'change'. If Henry VIII thought like you do, you would be telling us all about the indisputable supremacy of the Roman Church and the wisdom of the pope.
Both you and HYUFD have a point.
HYUFD is correct in stating that, insofar as I'm aware, the constitution is reserved to Westminster and the Scottish Parliament - as a limited body, which derives what authority it has from Westminster - can't legislate to do what it likes in this regard, any more than it can vote to sign up to the European Economic Area, make Andy Murray the President or declare war on Rutland. These issues are outside of its current competence.
What it can do, however, assuming that it asks Westminster to give it what it wants and is rebuffed, is then to turn to its own people to demand change through protest. If enough of the Scottish people demand a vote then Westminster may back down; if support for secession becomes overwhelming then the Scottish Parliament could also attempt UDI, i.e. initiate a revolution and dare the British Government to try to stop it. Thus, both sides have recourse.
What the Scottish Government cannot do is claim that its own authority is sufficient to do whatever it likes, without reference to anyone else. The law of the UK, of which it is a subsidiary part, doesn't give it that right; the Scottish people, when given the opportunity to declare sovereignty, also refused to give it that right; and there's presently no evidence of which I am aware to suggest that a settled majority in Scotland wants to have a further tilt at independence. Like it or not, that is how things appear to stand at present.
You're, er, forgetting the last two parliamentary elections and the mandate for a referendum within the manifestoes. It's an important distinction - compare, for instance the criterion on whether a Westminster bill can or can't be rejected by the Lords, which hinges in part on whether it is in the manifesto.
Did everybody who voted for the SNP in recent electoral cycles want another vote on independence though? Almost certainly not. Indeed, is there a burning desire sweeping the land to have this argument out again, this year or next? You tell me.
Don't want to speak for another, but to answer your question, I don't think everyone who voted for the SNP want another vote on independence. But the overwhelming majority would have voted either knowing that the SNP specifically asked people to give them a mandate to hold one, or they should have known.
Ditto the question of burning desire to hold a poll. I don't detect one but, when the question is framed as Scotland having the right to decide it's own future, independent or not, the answer tends to be yes. Combine these two things, and the Government ends up in a tricky position really quickly if they start throwing their weight around.
Back on topic, the thing that really strikes me is that although 49% of Conservatives feel he is unethical, they say they are going to vote for him anyway. That means that being ethical isn't that important to them, and goes with other polls surprising to those of us who have lived and breathed democratic politics, like the French one saying that 40% would like France to be governed by a dictator. Similarly, although the hearings in the US are building a convincing case that Trump tried to seize power illegally, only IIRC 21% of the electorate say they find this very important.
I think the problem is that an awful lot of people feel that things are a bit crap and it needs a forceful leader to sort things out, never mind the details. Perhaps Putin's apparent popularity at home has a similar root - after bureacratic Brezhnev and drunken Yeltsin, Putin has a clear agenda, even if it's one that most rational people would conclude is pretty unwise and unethical.
It should go without saying that this is disturbing. Is it new, or were there always a large chunk of voters who didn't really care about ethics and morality, just deliver the tax cuts?
You are forgetting that voting choice in UK general elections is a mixture of voting for and voting against. I had enough confidence that Corbyn wasn't going to win to vote LD at the last election. If I had to vote Tory to stop Corbyn I would have done even though I dislike the Tories (in the main). Many of those saying they will vote Tory at the moment simply fear and / or dislike Labour more and would probably give you a moral reason for their anti-Labour viewpoint if you had a conversation.
meanwhile back at the ranch . . . or rather the Last Frontier . . . .
On Wed, Alaska Dept of Elections released second unofficial, partial vote count for June 11's very Special Congressional Primary, here are the top 5 candidates so far (top 4 advance to Aug 16 special general election):
Total ballots counted as of June 15 = 134,179 (22.9% of statewide active registered voters) > estimated 83% of final expected primary turnout
Sarah Palin - Republican = 37,741 (28.3%) Nick Begich - Republican = 25,766 (19.2%) Al Gross - Nonpartisan = 17,037 (12.7%) Mary Peltola - Democratic = 11,863 (8.9%)
Tara Sweeney - Republican = 7,484 (6.6%) Santa Claus - Undeclared = 6,070 (4.5%) other 42 candidates on ballot = 28,218 (21.0%)
Check out link for map of these results by state house district.
My own fearless forecast, based on above, is that Nick Begich will be ultimate special election victor in August. On grounds that it will be difficult (to put it mildly) for any Democrat (including 2020Dem nominee Gross) to prevail in the final round. AND that Begich will prove WAY more transfer-friendly than Palin.
However, the order in which the bottom two candidates get eliminated could prove decisive to the outcome. Depending on patterns of vote transfers AND of non-transferable votes.
So hold on to your mukluks!
Santa Claus 4.5% is very good, he'd almost keep his deposit in the UK
Unless you fabricated him to see who was paying attention
Santa fabricated himself.
He's a member of the North Pole, Alaska city council. And a declared democratic socialist.
Shouldn't he be ineligible? For his once a year bribery of the electorate's offspring?
The fall of the cherry blossom: look at this aircraft they built, named 'Cherry Blossom'. It had no undercarriage (and some versions had no motor, being gliders). The nose housed a large high explosive warhead. Guess the function, in 1945 ...
"It was nicknamed by Americans "Baka" (Japanese for "idiot" or "fool")" -- I didn't realise that particular word was kicking around in western popular culture so early...
As predicted by fluffy tailed me yesterday, the government could not survive flying anyone to Rwanda and then having to fly them back, as they promised the UK judges they would if the scheme is ruled illegal.
So, oh so quietly today, ALL Rwanda flights have been abandoned until the legal ruling. (Stick that on your front page Daily Mail).
They might well do so, especially if they can blame judges. Even more so if they can blame Eurojudges.
And a "we wanted to but the horrid lefty legal establishment stopped us" is a much better narrative for the government than actually trying it.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum
So? We can vote for what we want and if you limit these things then something has to give. There is this thijng called 'progress' and 'change'. If Henry VIII thought like you do, you would be telling us all about the indisputable supremacy of the Roman Church and the wisdom of the pope.
Both you and HYUFD have a point.
HYUFD is correct in stating that, insofar as I'm aware, the constitution is reserved to Westminster and the Scottish Parliament - as a limited body, which derives what authority it has from Westminster - can't legislate to do what it likes in this regard, any more than it can vote to sign up to the European Economic Area, make Andy Murray the President or declare war on Rutland. These issues are outside of its current competence.
What it can do, however, assuming that it asks Westminster to give it what it wants and is rebuffed, is then to turn to its own people to demand change through protest. If enough of the Scottish people demand a vote then Westminster may back down; if support for secession becomes overwhelming then the Scottish Parliament could also attempt UDI, i.e. initiate a revolution and dare the British Government to try to stop it. Thus, both sides have recourse.
What the Scottish Government cannot do is claim that its own authority is sufficient to do whatever it likes, without reference to anyone else. The law of the UK, of which it is a subsidiary part, doesn't give it that right; the Scottish people, when given the opportunity to declare sovereignty, also refused to give it that right; and there's presently no evidence of which I am aware to suggest that a settled majority in Scotland wants to have a further tilt at independence. Like it or not, that is how things appear to stand at present.
You're, er, forgetting the last two parliamentary elections and the mandate for a referendum within the manifestoes. It's an important distinction - compare, for instance the criterion on whether a Westminster bill can or can't be rejected by the Lords, which hinges in part on whether it is in the manifesto.
Did everybody who voted for the SNP in recent electoral cycles want another vote on independence though? Almost certainly not. Indeed, is there a burning desire sweeping the land to have this argument out again, this year or next? You tell me.
Don't want to speak for another, but to answer your question, I don't think everyone who voted for the SNP want another vote on independence. But the overwhelming majority would have voted either knowing that the SNP specifically asked people to give them a mandate to hold one, or they should have known.
Ditto the question of burning desire to hold a poll. I don't detect one but, when the question is framed as Scotland having the right to decide it's own future, independent or not, the answer tends to be yes. Combine these two things, and the Government ends up in a tricky position really quickly if they start throwing their weight around.
It is perfectly normal in politics (and in religion) to want something to occur but only in the future and truly believe that this means you want it to occur. The Scots are suffering from a bout of this at the moment about both polling and independence. In theology it might be called 'eschatological aspiration'. In politics it is magnificent opportunism as it looks moral but keeps the Bank of England and the Treasury as suppliers of last resort.
And of this politico-religion Nicola Sturgeon is the true and Salmond the false prophet.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yep, in fact not all Unionists are cowardly hypocrites, some of them while against Indy are part of the majority that think that the SG has a mandate to hold another referendum.
'Is there a mandate for IndyRef2? Evidence from the Scottish Election Study
Across the board we see that following the 2021 election, majorities in all conditions thought there was a mandate for a second referendum, whether they received the neutral prompt (55%), the SNP fell short prompt (53%) and the pro-independence parties won a majority prompt (61%).'
I personally can't see how there isn't a mandate. Those figs show how big the challenge for Sturgeon is though. 45% are so anti independence they won't even recognize she's just won an election with the Ref commitment front and centre. Then, as you say, amongst the 55% are those like David on here - unionists with a streak of liking democracy, plus who think the Ref should be soon because they'd win again and that nails it.
As for Leon's question on how her "new" focus on Sindy will affect the polls, I have no clue. What do you think?
Fairly certain it'll be more stalemate; until a roadmap with a date happens there's not much point in anyone making a leap of faith or retreating cowering into a fetal position.
What I am convinced of is that the neverendum guys don't want one because they'd have to defend their record of the last 8 years, make their case without two major foundation stones (EU membership, stability) and with no real big beasts to trumpet their cause, and that's before we get to the fat, lying, albino elephant in the room.
Yep these last few years of Westminster must surely play for Yes. It's like 2014 happened and you failed to leave and we went, "ok good, let's piss all over them now then, it'll be a right laugh!"
Always worth recalling that big beast of the Union JK Rowling's words from 2014. I daresay she'll play a part again if she can tear herself away from asking if women have penises.
"I’ve heard it said that ‘we’ve got to leave, because they’ll punish us if we don’t’, but my guess is that if we vote to stay, we will be in the heady position of the spouse who looked like walking out, but decided to give things one last go. All the major political parties are currently wooing us with offers of extra powers, keen to keep Scotland happy so that it does not hold an independence referendum every ten years and cause uncertainty and turmoil all over again. I doubt whether we will ever have been more popular, or in a better position to dictate terms, than if we vote to stay."
Anyway, greetings from Yeghegnadzor, Armenia where I have just slept, on and off, for 15 hours
Quite odd. The accumulated sleep deficit of travel, I guess. Feel fine now. Unsurprisingly refreshed
I was meaning to ask you, travelling man, after reading your social and political and cultural dispatches from Armenia, have you read A Hero of Our Time?
I have, and it’s one of my favourite Russian novels.
When I was in Tbilisi it felt terrifically Lermontov, not least because so many of those svelte young Russian officers flirting and promenading in Vladikavkaz, and admiring the peasant Circassian girls, would have come down to Tiflis for the sulfur baths (certainly Pushkin and Tolstoy did)
This is totally my new favourite part of the word. Armenia is terrifically exotic. I am 100% the only non-Armenian in this ugly yet somehow adorable little town lodged int the spectacular South Caucasus winelands
I sip the excellent white (80p a glass) and gaze out at the wheeling swallows. They play Anglo-French chill out music. The sun sets over the semi-desert and the dark green canyons and, far beyond, over distant snow-capped Ararat
The Cranes Are Flying (Russian: Летят журавли, translit. Letyat zhuravli) is a 1957 Soviet film about the Second World War. It depicts the cruelty of war and the damage done to the Soviet psyche as a result of war, which was known in the Soviet Union as the Great Patriotic War.
Anyway, greetings from Yeghegnadzor, Armenia where I have just slept, on and off, for 15 hours
Quite odd. The accumulated sleep deficit of travel, I guess. Feel fine now. Unsurprisingly refreshed
Back in November 1999 during my Armenia trip I arrived in Yegheghnadzor having travelled in a dodgy taxi over the high plateau from Martuni on lake Sevan, where I’d had a really quite nasty stomach bug. I too slept for a similar amount of time.
I’d fallen in with an American peace corps volunteer in Martuni and slept on his floor after a day of the squits, but the evening, first with some teenage kids we got talking to in a shack on the outskirts and later in a highly kitsch mafiosi restaurant with Armienski conac finished me off. Was retching the whole next day.
I’m sure the place is better presented now but that whole central and Southern part of Armenia was a juxtaposition of wild and beautiful scenery, and ugly as hell settlements that had barely emerged from communism.
Back on topic, the thing that really strikes me is that although 49% of Conservatives feel he is unethical, they say they are going to vote for him anyway. That means that being ethical isn't that important to them, and goes with other polls surprising to those of us who have lived and breathed democratic politics, like the French one saying that 40% would like France to be governed by a dictator. Similarly, although the hearings in the US are building a convincing case that Trump tried to seize power illegally, only IIRC 21% of the electorate say they find this very important.
I think the problem is that an awful lot of people feel that things are a bit crap and it needs a forceful leader to sort things out, never mind the details. Perhaps Putin's apparent popularity at home has a similar root - after bureacratic Brezhnev and drunken Yeltsin, Putin has a clear agenda, even if it's one that most rational people would conclude is pretty unwise and unethical.
It should go without saying that this is disturbing. Is it new, or were there always a large chunk of voters who didn't really care about ethics and morality, just deliver the tax cuts?
You are forgetting that voting choice in UK general elections is a mixture of voting for and voting against. I had enough confidence that Corbyn wasn't going to win to vote LD at the last election. If I had to vote Tory to stop Corbyn I would have done even though I dislike the Tories (in the main). Many of those saying they will vote Tory at the moment simply fear and / or dislike Labour more and would probably give you a moral reason for their anti-Labour viewpoint if you had a conversation.
That's interesting, but my impression is a bit different = all anecdata, of course. Most people don't feel Labour is very scary these days, but a lot of them feel they don't see the point.
Because Johnson's in power, he does stuff - maybe they like it, maybe not, but he's busy. Many regular Tories, as I said earlier, are going to vote differently because they just feel exasperated. Others are still on for the ride, because they feel maybe he'll do something useful, and they really don't care about parties and Parliamentary probity.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum
So? We can vote for what we want and if you limit these things then something has to give. There is this thijng called 'progress' and 'change'. If Henry VIII thought like you do, you would be telling us all about the indisputable supremacy of the Roman Church and the wisdom of the pope.
Both you and HYUFD have a point.
HYUFD is correct in stating that, insofar as I'm aware, the constitution is reserved to Westminster and the Scottish Parliament - as a limited body, which derives what authority it has from Westminster - can't legislate to do what it likes in this regard, any more than it can vote to sign up to the European Economic Area, make Andy Murray the President or declare war on Rutland. These issues are outside of its current competence.
What it can do, however, assuming that it asks Westminster to give it what it wants and is rebuffed, is then to turn to its own people to demand change through protest. If enough of the Scottish people demand a vote then Westminster may back down; if support for secession becomes overwhelming then the Scottish Parliament could also attempt UDI, i.e. initiate a revolution and dare the British Government to try to stop it. Thus, both sides have recourse.
What the Scottish Government cannot do is claim that its own authority is sufficient to do whatever it likes, without reference to anyone else. The law of the UK, of which it is a subsidiary part, doesn't give it that right; the Scottish people, when given the opportunity to declare sovereignty, also refused to give it that right; and there's presently no evidence of which I am aware to suggest that a settled majority in Scotland wants to have a further tilt at independence. Like it or not, that is how things appear to stand at present.
You're, er, forgetting the last two parliamentary elections and the mandate for a referendum within the manifestoes. It's an important distinction - compare, for instance the criterion on whether a Westminster bill can or can't be rejected by the Lords, which hinges in part on whether it is in the manifesto.
Did everybody who voted for the SNP in recent electoral cycles want another vote on independence though? Almost certainly not. Indeed, is there a burning desire sweeping the land to have this argument out again, this year or next? You tell me.
Don't want to speak for another, but to answer your question, I don't think everyone who voted for the SNP want another vote on independence. But the overwhelming majority would have voted either knowing that the SNP specifically asked people to give them a mandate to hold one, or they should have known.
Ditto the question of burning desire to hold a poll. I don't detect one but, when the question is framed as Scotland having the right to decide it's own future, independent or not, the answer tends to be yes. Combine these two things, and the Government ends up in a tricky position really quickly if they start throwing their weight around.
Ah, but voters aren't obliged to be consistent, and can hold two contradictory positions in their heads at the same time. Ask some voters if they think the Scottish Parliament has the right to do X, Y or Z - either because they erroneously believe that it can do what it likes, or they think that it should be able to do what it likes - and you get one answer. Ask the same set of voters if there should be a vote on secession and a lot of them will give you various shades of the opposite answer (e.g. "Oh Christ, not again!"; "No, they should concentrate on sorting out the schools."; and so on and so forth.)
So long as there's not a settled majority amongst the general population in Scotland unambiguously in favour of another vote, there is consequently no particular reason for the British Government not to keep saying no. They don't need to throw their weight about. Repeating slowly and patiently that there was already a failed vote on this eight years ago, and that most Scottish voters aren't enthusiastic about having another one right now, isn't them throwing their weight around, it's a statement of the bleedin' obvious.
Whatever the SNP may say, the British Government is not obliged to fully co-operate in any and every effort to maximise the likelihood of its own demise. That's doubtless deeply frustrating for the independence movement, but so what? The independence movement is one of the British Government's political enemies. It is up to the former to amass enough strength to compel the latter to back down.
That fucking DISGUSTING infill of a beautiful bridge must be reversed (tho again there were “2 people” who thought it was fine, against 900 who did not, who are they??)
But the question is: how did this even happen? It seems to be a peculiarly British thing. A philistine disgust at beautiful things so we treat them with overt contempt. Like Scousers booing a lovely hymn
I cannot think of any advanced culture that does this, except for ones warped by political doctrine, like the church-hating states of the Soviet Union or the iconoclasts of Mao’s Cultural Revolution in China, but even they have now all wised up
Totally agreed on reversing the infill -- for me the main reason is that I don't think we should let people get away with sidestepping rules by presenting that kind of "oops, but it's done now, so here we are, let's just move on, eh?" fait accompli to society. (I agree on aesthetic and don't-prevent-railway-reinstatement grounds too.) "Whoops, this listed but expensive-to-convert building seems to have suffered a convenient arson attack" is another on similar lines.
Not sure Britain is alone in this -- Japan has some nasty examples too, where the "construction state" builds new stuff and bulldozes the old. For instance the historic Nihonbashi bridge in Tokyo currently has an expressway running over the top of it so low that the ornate iron lampposts of the old bridge have had to be carefully fitted in the gap between expressway carriageways. The original Frank Lloyd Wright designed Imperial Hotel is another -- replaced with a dull modern hotel.
Edit: Alex Kerr's _Dogs and Demons_ has a section on this sort of Japanese architectural vandalism, I think.
I have read that the Japanese regard buildings as pretty transient things with a 50 year design life so perhaps the build quality isn't great
Regular earthquakes and tsunamis will have that psychological effect on the attitude to the built environment.
Very good point
Yes, and fires, because the Japanese build in wood (which survives better in earthquakes) but wood decays quick. And burns
So much of Japanese culture comes down to this underlying factor of impernance. The haiku is all about melancholic loss and the fleeting futility of everything. All you have is the moment. The perfect taste of miso, the single perfect flower arrangement (that lasts a day), the geisha girl who begins to age the day she gets the job
The fall of the cherry blossom: look at this aircraft they built, named 'Cherry Blossom'. It had no undercarriage (and some versions had no motor, being gliders). The nose housed a large high explosive warhead. Guess the function, in 1945 ...
Lots of people don't realise how strict the rules for haiku are. It's not just the syllable count, you also have to refer to nature, and to a season of the year, and to convey a sunt lacrimae rerum kinda vibe
Call me a bigoted western hegemonist if you will, but to me that all adds up to a pile of time wasting wank. Verbal flower arranging.
Back on topic, the thing that really strikes me is that although 49% of Conservatives feel he is unethical, they say they are going to vote for him anyway. That means that being ethical isn't that important to them, and goes with other polls surprising to those of us who have lived and breathed democratic politics, like the French one saying that 40% would like France to be governed by a dictator. Similarly, although the hearings in the US are building a convincing case that Trump tried to seize power illegally, only IIRC 21% of the electorate say they find this very important.
I think the problem is that an awful lot of people feel that things are a bit crap and it needs a forceful leader to sort things out, never mind the details. Perhaps Putin's apparent popularity at home has a similar root - after bureacratic Brezhnev and drunken Yeltsin, Putin has a clear agenda, even if it's one that most rational people would conclude is pretty unwise and unethical.
It should go without saying that this is disturbing. Is it new, or were there always a large chunk of voters who didn't really care about ethics and morality, just deliver the tax cuts?
You are forgetting that voting choice in UK general elections is a mixture of voting for and voting against. I had enough confidence that Corbyn wasn't going to win to vote LD at the last election. If I had to vote Tory to stop Corbyn I would have done even though I dislike the Tories (in the main). Many of those saying they will vote Tory at the moment simply fear and / or dislike Labour more and would probably give you a moral reason for their anti-Labour viewpoint if you had a conversation.
That's interesting, but my impression is a bit different = all anecdata, of course. Most people don't feel Labour is very scary these days, but a lot of them feel they don't see the point.
Because Johnson's in power, he does stuff - maybe they like it, maybe not, but he's busy. Many regular Tories, as I said earlier, are going to vote differently because they just feel exasperated. Others are still on for the ride, because they feel maybe he'll do something useful, and they really don't care about parties and Parliamentary probity.
The psychology of attitudes to Boris is fascinating. A lot of it seems to come from deep seated British class attitudes.
Look at those who hate him most. People, frankly, like me. The non-toff, educated, “Protestant” (in the cultural rather than religious sense) middle class. We’ve all been airily dismissed and belittled by his type, usually as freshers when we naively thought university was an egalitarian place where one could befriend anyone.
His sort were the Sebastian Flytes and we were the Charles Ryders, only the story developed differently. We all stayed within our little class boundaries.
I remember Bullingdon types. They just looked through you. Didn’t even notice you were there.
Remember the French Revolution was the bourgeois vs the aristocracy, at least to start with. Similar energy. Whereas to working class voters I think Boris is just exotic. So completely unlike them, that he’s not really a threat at the subconscious level. Just a different species.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yep, in fact not all Unionists are cowardly hypocrites, some of them while against Indy are part of the majority that think that the SG has a mandate to hold another referendum.
'Is there a mandate for IndyRef2? Evidence from the Scottish Election Study
Across the board we see that following the 2021 election, majorities in all conditions thought there was a mandate for a second referendum, whether they received the neutral prompt (55%), the SNP fell short prompt (53%) and the pro-independence parties won a majority prompt (61%).'
I personally can't see how there isn't a mandate. Those figs show how big the challenge for Sturgeon is though. 45% are so anti independence they won't even recognize she's just won an election with the Ref commitment front and centre. Then, as you say, amongst the 55% are those like David on here - unionists with a streak of liking democracy, plus who think the Ref should be soon because they'd win again and that nails it.
As for Leon's question on how her "new" focus on Sindy will affect the polls, I have no clue. What do you think?
Fairly certain it'll be more stalemate; until a roadmap with a date happens there's not much point in anyone making a leap of faith or retreating cowering into a fetal position.
What I am convinced of is that the neverendum guys don't want one because they'd have to defend their record of the last 8 years, make their case without two major foundation stones (EU membership, stability) and with no real big beasts to trumpet their cause, and that's before we get to the fat, lying, albino elephant in the room.
Yep these last few years of Westminster must surely play for Yes. It's like 2014 happened and you failed to leave and we went, "ok good, let's piss all over them now then, it'll be a right laugh!"
But isn't that Sturgeon's dilemma? If ever conditions were ripe for independence, it's right now. Brexit. Boris. UK economy tanking. If I lived in Scotland, I'd be sorely tempted. Yet the polls indicate little, if any shift, towards independence since 2014, don't they? And if Labour is in government after 2024, I suspect the proportion in favour of independence will reduce, albeit marginally.
Yes it's eye of a needle. Also some Catch 22 in that the chance of getting a Ref currently seems to be inversely promotional to the chance of winning it. The polls did move for Yes, I recall, but then went back, maybe in response to turbulent times, less appetite for risk, not sure. Still, I reckon so long as the split is within 55/45 range the Nats would fancy it and think it worth the risk.
Me, I don't really want Sindy the outcome, because I like the connection, yet I'm rooting for Sindy the project because it feels like the right thing for Scotland to me, and it's what this Tory Brexit path we've taken deserves to reap, and I'm pretty sure I'd vote for it if I had a vote.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yes yes, we disagree on this, whatevs
Please address the question. You are often quite perceptive when not “trembling with Woke indignation”
What do you think Sturgeon’s commitment to a vote will do to the Nat polls? I reckon it will move them but it might move them both ways: she gains some wavering Alba types but loses soft YESers who want a quiet life right now, so it might end up status quo
Hmm, given how many old No Supporters will have expired and the amount of EU citizens gone, unionists are really bricking it gone the new voters will all be YES
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yep, in fact not all Unionists are cowardly hypocrites, some of them while against Indy are part of the majority that think that the SG has a mandate to hold another referendum.
'Is there a mandate for IndyRef2? Evidence from the Scottish Election Study
Across the board we see that following the 2021 election, majorities in all conditions thought there was a mandate for a second referendum, whether they received the neutral prompt (55%), the SNP fell short prompt (53%) and the pro-independence parties won a majority prompt (61%).'
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Well, look how HYUFD is trying to make up a different excuse every time.
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
Personally I think the Tories will never grant another indyref2 now and Labour will only grant one if they need SNP confidence and supply to get into government. So you can whinge as much as you want but under the UK constitution based on Westminster sovereignty for the foreseeable future you Scottish Nationalists are stuffed
The myth that, say what you like about you, you are an unfailingly polite poster, taking a battering there
There is a difference between being firm and persistent swearing, just because I am not personally abusive or swearing frequently does not mean I am weak either
Who the fuck said anything about swearing? Dismissing a reasoned argument against you as whingeing is simply bloody discourteous. Swearing doesn't come in to it.
Long time lurker here.. aren't you the **** (beginning with a c) who effectively hounded Charles from this site?
Not sure why you are tolerated around here but you are one horrible ****.
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Well, look how HYUFD is trying to make up a different excuse every time.
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
Personally I think the Tories will never grant another indyref2 now and Labour will only grant one if they need SNP confidence and supply to get into government. So you can whinge as much as you want but under the UK constitution based on Westminster sovereignty for the foreseeable future you Scottish Nationalists are stuffed
The myth that, say what you like about you, you are an unfailingly polite poster, taking a battering there
There is a difference between being firm and persistent swearing, just because I am not personally abusive or swearing frequently does not mean I am weak either
Who the fuck said anything about swearing? Dismissing a reasoned argument against you as whingeing is simply bloody discourteous. Swearing doesn't come in to it.
Long time lurker here.. aren't you the **** (beginning with a c) who effectively hounded Charles from this site?
Not sure why you are tolerated around here but you are one horrible ****.
That fucking DISGUSTING infill of a beautiful bridge must be reversed (tho again there were “2 people” who thought it was fine, against 900 who did not, who are they??)
But the question is: how did this even happen? It seems to be a peculiarly British thing. A philistine disgust at beautiful things so we treat them with overt contempt. Like Scousers booing a lovely hymn
I cannot think of any advanced culture that does this, except for ones warped by political doctrine, like the church-hating states of the Soviet Union or the iconoclasts of Mao’s Cultural Revolution in China, but even they have now all wised up
Totally agreed on reversing the infill -- for me the main reason is that I don't think we should let people get away with sidestepping rules by presenting that kind of "oops, but it's done now, so here we are, let's just move on, eh?" fait accompli to society. (I agree on aesthetic and don't-prevent-railway-reinstatement grounds too.) "Whoops, this listed but expensive-to-convert building seems to have suffered a convenient arson attack" is another on similar lines.
Not sure Britain is alone in this -- Japan has some nasty examples too, where the "construction state" builds new stuff and bulldozes the old. For instance the historic Nihonbashi bridge in Tokyo currently has an expressway running over the top of it so low that the ornate iron lampposts of the old bridge have had to be carefully fitted in the gap between expressway carriageways. The original Frank Lloyd Wright designed Imperial Hotel is another -- replaced with a dull modern hotel.
Edit: Alex Kerr's _Dogs and Demons_ has a section on this sort of Japanese architectural vandalism, I think.
I have read that the Japanese regard buildings as pretty transient things with a 50 year design life so perhaps the build quality isn't great
Regular earthquakes and tsunamis will have that psychological effect on the attitude to the built environment.
Very good point
Yes, and fires, because the Japanese build in wood (which survives better in earthquakes) but wood decays quick. And burns
So much of Japanese culture comes down to this underlying factor of impernance. The haiku is all about melancholic loss and the fleeting futility of everything. All you have is the moment. The perfect taste of miso, the single perfect flower arrangement (that lasts a day), the geisha girl who begins to age the day she gets the job
The fall of the cherry blossom: look at this aircraft they built, named 'Cherry Blossom'. It had no undercarriage (and some versions had no motor, being gliders). The nose housed a large high explosive warhead. Guess the function, in 1945 ...
Lots of people don't realise how strict the rules for haiku are. It's not just the syllable count, you also have to refer to nature, and to a season of the year, and to convey a sunt lacrimae rerum kinda vibe
Call me a bigoted western hegemonist if you will, but to me that all adds up to a pile of time wasting wank. Verbal flower arranging.
Haiku.
To-con-vey one’s mood In sev-en-teen syll-able-s Is ve-ry dif-fic
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yep, in fact not all Unionists are cowardly hypocrites, some of them while against Indy are part of the majority that think that the SG has a mandate to hold another referendum.
'Is there a mandate for IndyRef2? Evidence from the Scottish Election Study
Across the board we see that following the 2021 election, majorities in all conditions thought there was a mandate for a second referendum, whether they received the neutral prompt (55%), the SNP fell short prompt (53%) and the pro-independence parties won a majority prompt (61%).'
I personally can't see how there isn't a mandate. Those figs show how big the challenge for Sturgeon is though. 45% are so anti independence they won't even recognize she's just won an election with the Ref commitment front and centre. Then, as you say, amongst the 55% are those like David on here - unionists with a streak of liking democracy, plus who think the Ref should be soon because they'd win again and that nails it.
As for Leon's question on how her "new" focus on Sindy will affect the polls, I have no clue. What do you think?
Fairly certain it'll be more stalemate; until a roadmap with a date happens there's not much point in anyone making a leap of faith or retreating cowering into a fetal position.
What I am convinced of is that the neverendum guys don't want one because they'd have to defend their record of the last 8 years, make their case without two major foundation stones (EU membership, stability) and with no real big beasts to trumpet their cause, and that's before we get to the fat, lying, albino elephant in the room.
Yep these last few years of Westminster must surely play for Yes. It's like 2014 happened and you failed to leave and we went, "ok good, let's piss all over them now then, it'll be a right laugh!"
Always worth recalling that big beast of the Union JK Rowling's words from 2014. I daresay she'll play a part again if she can tear herself away from asking if women have penises.
"I’ve heard it said that ‘we’ve got to leave, because they’ll punish us if we don’t’, but my guess is that if we vote to stay, we will be in the heady position of the spouse who looked like walking out, but decided to give things one last go. All the major political parties are currently wooing us with offers of extra powers, keen to keep Scotland happy so that it does not hold an independence referendum every ten years and cause uncertainty and turmoil all over again. I doubt whether we will ever have been more popular, or in a better position to dictate terms, than if we vote to stay."
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yep, in fact not all Unionists are cowardly hypocrites, some of them while against Indy are part of the majority that think that the SG has a mandate to hold another referendum.
'Is there a mandate for IndyRef2? Evidence from the Scottish Election Study
Across the board we see that following the 2021 election, majorities in all conditions thought there was a mandate for a second referendum, whether they received the neutral prompt (55%), the SNP fell short prompt (53%) and the pro-independence parties won a majority prompt (61%).'
I'm not a fan of the word mandate, which I find is often overused or misused, but at the end of the day if the elected parliament in Scotland wants one it seems reasonable that it happen, though sadly I'm far from confident unionists would win it. I can understand the 'just ignore it' strategy that is employed, but something has to give eventually.
Yes, so to be precise, they have a mandate to demand a Ref but not to hold it because that needs consent from the UKG.
I think it will be close if it happens and I think the chances of it happening are greater than most on here seem to think.
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Anecdote alert. I was sitting in a waiting room in a hospital in Glasgow when Sturgeon's press conference came on the TV. One of the nurses who was doing paperwork nearby looked up at the TV, took in what was being said and muttered "Oh not that nonsense again". Her colleague, who was typing up something, listened to the TV for a moment, shook her head, sighed, and went back to typing.
I was quite surprised, to put it mildly; neither Glasgow nor the NHS are exactly strongholds of Unionism. But maybe I just found the token Unionists.
(as an aside, I waited almost exactly a year for that appointment only to find on the day that the NHS had screwed up and sent me to someone who is not a specialist in my particular condition. So now more waiting. And that's far from the most serious error my family and I have experienced at the hands of the NHS recently. If anything brings the SNP down, their mismanagement of the health service will be it)
C rap as that is, what is your alternative. None of the London drinks could run a bath. Without independence the SNP will never lose to those London buffoons.
Let’s have the vote. But the UK govt can say no because there doesn’t seem to be an indication in current polling that independence is a “hot topic” or key.
You’ve only got to look at some of the dubious stats in the latest paper published to realise the SNP is stuck in some sort of hopeless stalemate.
I would hazard a guess that with the Tories running out of steam down here - and heading toward an electoral defeat - the SNPs job becomes somewhat more difficult after..how many years?
Back on topic, the thing that really strikes me is that although 49% of Conservatives feel he is unethical, they say they are going to vote for him anyway. That means that being ethical isn't that important to them, and goes with other polls surprising to those of us who have lived and breathed democratic politics, like the French one saying that 40% would like France to be governed by a dictator. Similarly, although the hearings in the US are building a convincing case that Trump tried to seize power illegally, only IIRC 21% of the electorate say they find this very important.
I think the problem is that an awful lot of people feel that things are a bit crap and it needs a forceful leader to sort things out, never mind the details. Perhaps Putin's apparent popularity at home has a similar root - after bureacratic Brezhnev and drunken Yeltsin, Putin has a clear agenda, even if it's one that most rational people would conclude is pretty unwise and unethical.
It should go without saying that this is disturbing. Is it new, or were there always a large chunk of voters who didn't really care about ethics and morality, just deliver the tax cuts?
You are forgetting that voting choice in UK general elections is a mixture of voting for and voting against. I had enough confidence that Corbyn wasn't going to win to vote LD at the last election. If I had to vote Tory to stop Corbyn I would have done even though I dislike the Tories (in the main). Many of those saying they will vote Tory at the moment simply fear and / or dislike Labour more and would probably give you a moral reason for their anti-Labour viewpoint if you had a conversation.
That's interesting, but my impression is a bit different = all anecdata, of course. Most people don't feel Labour is very scary these days, but a lot of them feel they don't see the point.
Because Johnson's in power, he does stuff - maybe they like it, maybe not, but he's busy. Many regular Tories, as I said earlier, are going to vote differently because they just feel exasperated. Others are still on for the ride, because they feel maybe he'll do something useful, and they really don't care about parties and Parliamentary probity.
The psychology of attitudes to Boris is fascinating. A lot of it seems to come from deep seated British class attitudes.
Look at those who hate him most. People, frankly, like me. The non-toff, educated, “Protestant” (in the cultural rather than religious sense) middle class. We’ve all been airily dismissed and belittled by his type, usually as freshers when we naively thought university was an egalitarian place where one could befriend anyone.
His sort were the Sebastian Flytes and we were the Charles Ryders, only the story developed differently. We all stayed within our little class boundaries.
I remember Bullingdon types. They just looked through you. Didn’t even notice you were there.
Remember the French Revolution was the bourgeois vs the aristocracy, at least to start with. Similar energy. Whereas to working class voters I think Boris is just exotic. So completely unlike them, that he’s not really a threat at the subconscious level. Just a different species.
Well. We've certainly been roughly rogered by him.
That fucking DISGUSTING infill of a beautiful bridge must be reversed (tho again there were “2 people” who thought it was fine, against 900 who did not, who are they??)
But the question is: how did this even happen? It seems to be a peculiarly British thing. A philistine disgust at beautiful things so we treat them with overt contempt. Like Scousers booing a lovely hymn
I cannot think of any advanced culture that does this, except for ones warped by political doctrine, like the church-hating states of the Soviet Union or the iconoclasts of Mao’s Cultural Revolution in China, but even they have now all wised up
Totally agreed on reversing the infill -- for me the main reason is that I don't think we should let people get away with sidestepping rules by presenting that kind of "oops, but it's done now, so here we are, let's just move on, eh?" fait accompli to society. (I agree on aesthetic and don't-prevent-railway-reinstatement grounds too.) "Whoops, this listed but expensive-to-convert building seems to have suffered a convenient arson attack" is another on similar lines.
Not sure Britain is alone in this -- Japan has some nasty examples too, where the "construction state" builds new stuff and bulldozes the old. For instance the historic Nihonbashi bridge in Tokyo currently has an expressway running over the top of it so low that the ornate iron lampposts of the old bridge have had to be carefully fitted in the gap between expressway carriageways. The original Frank Lloyd Wright designed Imperial Hotel is another -- replaced with a dull modern hotel.
Edit: Alex Kerr's _Dogs and Demons_ has a section on this sort of Japanese architectural vandalism, I think.
I have read that the Japanese regard buildings as pretty transient things with a 50 year design life so perhaps the build quality isn't great
Regular earthquakes and tsunamis will have that psychological effect on the attitude to the built environment.
Very good point
Yes, and fires, because the Japanese build in wood (which survives better in earthquakes) but wood decays quick. And burns
So much of Japanese culture comes down to this underlying factor of impernance. The haiku is all about melancholic loss and the fleeting futility of everything. All you have is the moment. The perfect taste of miso, the single perfect flower arrangement (that lasts a day), the geisha girl who begins to age the day she gets the job
The fall of the cherry blossom: look at this aircraft they built, named 'Cherry Blossom'. It had no undercarriage (and some versions had no motor, being gliders). The nose housed a large high explosive warhead. Guess the function, in 1945 ...
Lots of people don't realise how strict the rules for haiku are. It's not just the syllable count, you also have to refer to nature, and to a season of the year, and to convey a sunt lacrimae rerum kinda vibe
Call me a bigoted western hegemonist if you will, but to me that all adds up to a pile of time wasting wank. Verbal flower arranging.
Haiku.
To-con-vey one’s mood In sev-en-teen syll-able-s Is ve-ry dif-fic
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yet 71% of Scots do not want an indyref2 this year and 59% do not want one next year and only 42% want one in the next 5 years. So the UK government will continue to refuse one
A majority of votes, of seats at Holyrood, and of MPs in Scottish constituencies, all with it in the manifesto, remember?
Yet you pick some poll at random rather than respect democracy.
And Holyrood was only created by the Scotland Act 1998 which reserved the future of the union to Westminster, including of course whether and when to allow any independence referendum.
At the 2019 general election Unionist parties also won most votes in Scotland, as they did on the constituency vote at Holyrood last year too
Votes - not valid. Only MP numbers. Otherwise your Tory majority would be invalid. Are you seriously arguing that? If that is your artgument, then you need to start all over again.
It seems to be that none of the people who’d deny a lm independence vote really believe the polls, or they’d be saying “game on” and hoping to kill the issue like in Quebec.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
Well, look how HYUFD is trying to make up a different excuse every time.
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
Personally I think the Tories will never grant another indyref2 now and Labour will only grant one if they need SNP confidence and supply to get into government. So you can whinge as much as you want but under the UK constitution based on Westminster sovereignty for the foreseeable future you Scottish Nationalists are stuffed
The myth that, say what you like about you, you are an unfailingly polite poster, taking a battering there
There is a difference between being firm and persistent swearing, just because I am not personally abusive or swearing frequently does not mean I am weak either
Who the fuck said anything about swearing? Dismissing a reasoned argument against you as whingeing is simply bloody discourteous. Swearing doesn't come in to it.
Long time lurker here.. aren't you the **** (beginning with a c) who effectively hounded Charles from this site?
Not sure why you are tolerated around here but you are one horrible ****.
I'll go back to lurking now.
If PB is a pub, @IshmaelZ is the belligerent drunk trying to pick a fight every evening. Still it gets him out of the house...
Lib Dems and Green down to more realistic levels vs the last R&W outlier. LLG 58%, still at the higher end of recent range
SNP down 2, from 5, to 3
Of course in these UK polls the Nats’ sample is too small for any polling to reliable
But it reminds us that the first Scotland-wide poll after Sturgeon’s indyref2 commitment will be WELL worth watching
Polls show that a large majority of Scots do NO want another vote in 2023. Most don’t want one for several years, and a large chunk - 40 - never
How will Sturgeon’s new stance affect the Nats? Could go either way. It might rally Scots to her cause: OK she really means it this time, let’s follow her Over The Top, finally she’s going for it, etc
Alternatively she will be annoying people who are vaguely in favour of YES but do not want the stress and distraction of a referendum right now
Which way will it go? I do expect some movement
Not a matter of "finally" going for it. Post Brexit and Covid she ran on another Sindy Ref, got elected, is now seeking to honour the pledge.
Yep, in fact not all Unionists are cowardly hypocrites, some of them while against Indy are part of the majority that think that the SG has a mandate to hold another referendum.
'Is there a mandate for IndyRef2? Evidence from the Scottish Election Study
Across the board we see that following the 2021 election, majorities in all conditions thought there was a mandate for a second referendum, whether they received the neutral prompt (55%), the SNP fell short prompt (53%) and the pro-independence parties won a majority prompt (61%).'
I'm not a fan of the word mandate, which I find is often overused or misused, but at the end of the day if the elected parliament in Scotland wants one it seems reasonable that it happen, though sadly I'm far from confident unionists would win it. I can understand the 'just ignore it' strategy that is employed, but something has to give eventually.
Yes, so to be precise, they have a mandate to demand a Ref but not to hold it because that needs consent from the UKG.
I think it will be close if it happens and I think the chances of it happening are greater than most on here seem to think.
And what is that path that means it seems more likely to happen? The only thing I can think of is Labour relying on SNP. Which they won’t do
Comments
I do sometimes wonder if this is part of the debate about migrants - the English have little or no conception what it is like to be unwelcome in your own country (the Scots and Irish do) - it's 950 years since the Harrowing of the North after all - and to be forced to leave it and seek safety elsewhere as a refugee.
I presume no one is advocating the physical invasion and occupation of Russia - I suspect we even have to be careful about the Crimea - as that would put this conflict into a much more dangerous phase.
Legendary bacterial evolution experiment enters new era
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01620-3
A laboratory has been growing 12 populations of E. coli since 1988 — this year the cultures will get a new custodian...
… Lenski: My bias going into the experiment was that all the strains would go off in very different directions. I was thinking that the roles of chance and contingency in evolution would have been larger than they were. And over the years, we’ve actually seen just striking amounts of reproducibility. So although a typical line has improved its relative fitness compared with the ancestor by maybe 70% or 80%, the variance in competitive fitness between most lines is more like just a few per cent. So they’ve all tremendously increased, but very similarly to one another.
But then, over the years we've also seen quite striking divergences between the lines. Thirty thousand generations into the experiment one of the 12 lines evolved the ability to consume citrate, instead of just glucose. And that garnered quite a lot of attention, and even some, shall we say, hostility from some people who are sceptical of the power of evolution. And after 75,000 generations , it’s still the only one of the 12 lines that has evolved that ability.…
Worth reading the whole thing.
That they don’t believe the polls means they think Scots might want independence but aren’t willing to “allow” it. Which is wrong.
In fact, we can remove the words 'when they vote'.
An awful lot of people are looking out for No. 1
Is this bad? Not entirely. But it can of course produce plenty of 'ethical' and moral ambiguity.
Far out!
Next time he'll be saying No to Indy because a survey of patrons of the Louden Tavern on an Old Firm match day proves it. Like his fishery industry attitudes to Brexit survey which turned out to be a self-selected sample of a small number of skippers of only the largest vessels.
*possibly sarcastically - but then, what other criterion was available in her time?
Time to get tough with the SNP now, NO, NO, NO!!!
Absent that consent, there must be independence. Compulsion is just imperialism.
They were deemed unsafe and needed to be safely demolished before they fell down themselves.
After the first 3 attempts at dybamiting thrm to know effect people began questioning how "unsafe" they actually were.
Merely refusing indyref2 is a mild response by comparison and as the Yougov poll from 2 years ago I posted showed most Scots do not want indyref2 before the next general election in 2024
HYUFD is correct in stating that, insofar as I'm aware, the constitution is reserved to Westminster and the Scottish Parliament - as a limited body, which derives what authority it has from Westminster - can't legislate to do what it likes in this regard, any more than it can vote to sign up to the European Economic Area, make Andy Murray the President or declare war on Rutland. These issues are outside of its current competence.
What it can do, however, assuming that it asks Westminster to give it what it wants and is rebuffed, is then to turn to its own people to demand change through protest. If enough of the Scottish people demand a vote then Westminster may back down; if support for secession becomes overwhelming then the Scottish Parliament could also attempt UDI, i.e. initiate a revolution and dare the British Government to try to stop it. Thus, both sides have recourse.
What the Scottish Government cannot do is claim that its own authority is sufficient to do whatever it likes, without reference to anyone else. The law of the UK, of which it is a subsidiary part, doesn't give it that right; the Scottish people, when given the opportunity to declare sovereignty, also refused to give it that right; and there's presently no evidence of which I am aware to suggest that a settled majority in Scotland wants to have a further tilt at independence. Like it or not, that is how things appear to stand at present.
It's going to be fascinating to track. She's up against it but she's pretty good.
What I am convinced of is that the neverendum guys don't want one because they'd have to defend their record of the last 8 years, make their case without two major foundation stones (EU membership, stability) and with no real big beasts to trumpet their cause, and that's before we get to the fat, lying, albino elephant in the room.
No reason to respond.
As predicted by fluffy tailed me yesterday, the government could not survive flying anyone to Rwanda and then having to fly them back, as they promised the UK judges they would if the scheme is ruled illegal.
So, oh so quietly today, ALL Rwanda flights have been abandoned until the legal ruling. (Stick that on your front page Daily Mail).
On Wed, Alaska Dept of Elections released second unofficial, partial vote count for June 11's very Special Congressional Primary, here are the top 5 candidates so far (top 4 advance to Aug 16 special general election):
Total ballots counted as of June 15 = 134,179 (22.9% of statewide active registered voters)
> estimated 83% of final expected primary turnout
Sarah Palin - Republican = 37,741 (28.3%)
Nick Begich - Republican = 25,766 (19.2%)
Al Gross - Nonpartisan = 17,037 (12.7%)
Mary Peltola - Democratic = 11,863 (8.9%)
Tara Sweeney - Republican = 7,484 (6.6%)
Santa Claus - Undeclared = 6,070 (4.5%)
other 42 candidates on ballot = 28,218 (21.0%)
Check out link for map of these results by state house district.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2022_Alaska's_at-large_congressional_district_special_primary_election_by_State_House_district.svg
My own fearless forecast, based on above, is that Nick Begich will be ultimate special election victor in August. On grounds that it will be difficult (to put it mildly) for any Democrat (including 2020Dem nominee Gross) to prevail in the final round. AND that Begich will prove WAY more transfer-friendly than Palin.
However, the order in which the bottom two candidates get eliminated could prove decisive to the outcome. Depending on patterns of vote transfers AND of non-transferable votes.
So hold on to your mukluks!
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1536728990043471872?s=20&t=rUDQymjoJFeC-UEIh1hqbg
My guess is that the SNP will take a hit in the polls, but not a huge hit - a few points. Sturgeon is still personally popular, Boris is personally loathed, she can rely on that
Furthermore, my guess is that Sturgeon knows all this. She knows she can’t call a vote now, neither legally nor politically (far too risky; likely to lose) but to prevent the Nats splitting, she will pretend to go all out for one, relying on her personal standing to smooth out the bumps
Final guess: Sturgeon is in her own endgame. She wants to retire to a new job, but keeping the indy torch aflame (ie by not forcing a catastrophically lost indyref2)
The next Scottish vote will come some time around 2030 or beyond
The reality is plenty want it and plenty want Yes. It might not be a majority, but the reason the UK aren't going to let it happen is because it would be a near 50:50 coin toss, or maybe very slightly more favourable for no than that. But who's going to take the risk in HMG? They already fucked up with Brexit, didn't they.
Unless you fabricated him to see who was paying attention
So much of Japanese culture comes down to this underlying factor of impernance. The haiku is all about melancholic loss and the fleeting futility of everything. All you have is the moment. The perfect taste of miso, the single perfect flower arrangement (that lasts a day), the geisha girl who begins to age the day she gets the job
I might update it to 'What do you think Boris Johnson do in this situation, and then you should do the opposite.'
6999
https://www.ig.com/uk/indices/markets-indices/ftse-100
He's a member of the North Pole, Alaska city council. And a declared democratic socialist.
As Tom Lehrer wrote
Don't solicit for your sister: that's not nice
Unless you get a good percentage of the price
"I’ve heard it said that ‘we’ve got to leave, because they’ll punish us if we don’t’, but my guess is that if we vote to stay, we will be in the heady position of the spouse who looked like walking out, but decided to give things one last go. All the major political parties are currently wooing us with offers of extra powers, keen to keep Scotland happy so that it does not hold an independence referendum every ten years and cause uncertainty and turmoil all over again. I doubt whether we will ever have been more popular, or in a better position to dictate terms, than if we vote to stay."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10891509/JK-Rowlings-anti-Scottish-independence-statement-in-full.html
By Anglo French chill out, Phoenix, Air?
https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/kugisho-mxy7-ohka-cherry-blossom-22/nasm_A19480180000
It's been a while since I read Kerr's book, but IIRC he teases out a couple of different causes:
1: a state which got into the mindset of "the first priority is to build up the nation (modernisation, militarisation, building up tech for exports" in the Meiji period and never gor out of it, even decades later when Japan wasn't in such a weak position and a shift in balance from "exports matter more than anything else, build those factories" to "we consider well being and quality of life of our citizens, maybe we should have better planning controls and pollution regulations" was well overdue
2. a nice political self-supporting loop where the government (specifically the LDP) embarks on construction schemes in rural districts that provide contracts for construction firms (who then support LDP MPs) and jobs (for people who then vote LDP). This tends to result in unnecessary bridges, flood control schemes and dams out in the countryside
(Kerr's book is a polemic, but it's an entertaining read, and a useful corrective to the more rose-tinted view it's easy to pick up as a tourist.)
It's true that residential housing has a short lifespan there. My take is that that is caused by a vicious circle: housing stock is poor quality, so it is worth very little (the land is the bulk of the value on resale); so there's less incentive to put money into building a good house or improving an older one (it's a strictly depreciating asset); so housing stock remains poor quality.
Ditto the question of burning desire to hold a poll. I don't detect one but, when the question is framed as Scotland having the right to decide it's own future, independent or not, the answer tends to be yes. Combine these two things, and the Government ends up in a tricky position really quickly if they start throwing their weight around.
For his once a year bribery of the electorate's offspring?
And a "we wanted to but the horrid lefty legal establishment stopped us" is a much better narrative for the government than actually trying it.
And of this politico-religion Nicola Sturgeon is the true and Salmond the false prophet.
I’d fallen in with an American peace corps volunteer in Martuni and slept on his floor after a day of the squits, but the evening, first with some teenage kids we got talking to in a shack on the outskirts and later in a highly kitsch mafiosi restaurant with Armienski conac finished me off. Was retching the whole next day.
I’m sure the place is better presented now but that whole central and Southern part of Armenia was a juxtaposition of wild and beautiful scenery, and ugly as hell settlements that had barely emerged from communism.
Because Johnson's in power, he does stuff - maybe they like it, maybe not, but he's busy. Many regular Tories, as I said earlier, are going to vote differently because they just feel exasperated. Others are still on for the ride, because they feel maybe he'll do something useful, and they really don't care about parties and Parliamentary probity.
So long as there's not a settled majority amongst the general population in Scotland unambiguously in favour of another vote, there is consequently no particular reason for the British Government not to keep saying no. They don't need to throw their weight about. Repeating slowly and patiently that there was already a failed vote on this eight years ago, and that most Scottish voters aren't enthusiastic about having another one right now, isn't them throwing their weight around, it's a statement of the bleedin' obvious.
Whatever the SNP may say, the British Government is not obliged to fully co-operate in any and every effort to maximise the likelihood of its own demise. That's doubtless deeply frustrating for the independence movement, but so what? The independence movement is one of the British Government's political enemies. It is up to the former to amass enough strength to compel the latter to back down.
Call me a bigoted western hegemonist if you will, but to me that all adds up to a pile of time wasting wank. Verbal flower arranging.
Look at those who hate him most. People, frankly, like me. The non-toff, educated, “Protestant” (in the cultural rather than religious sense) middle class. We’ve all been airily dismissed and belittled by his type, usually as freshers when we naively thought university was an egalitarian place where one could befriend anyone.
His sort were the Sebastian Flytes and we were the Charles Ryders, only the story developed differently. We all stayed within our little class boundaries.
I remember Bullingdon types. They just looked through you. Didn’t even notice you were there.
Remember the French Revolution was the bourgeois vs the aristocracy, at least to start with. Similar energy. Whereas to working class voters I think Boris is just exotic. So completely unlike them, that he’s not really a threat at the subconscious level. Just a different species.
Me, I don't really want Sindy the outcome, because I like the connection, yet I'm rooting for Sindy the project because it feels like the right thing for Scotland to me, and it's what this Tory Brexit path we've taken deserves to reap, and I'm pretty sure I'd vote for it if I had a vote.
Not sure why you are tolerated around here but you are one horrible ****.
I'll go back to lurking now.
To-con-vey one’s mood
In sev-en-teen syll-able-s
Is ve-ry dif-fic
John Cooper Clarke.
I think it will be close if it happens and I think the chances of it happening are greater than most on here seem to think.
You’ve only got to look at some of the dubious stats in the latest paper published to realise the SNP is stuck in some sort of hopeless stalemate.
I would hazard a guess that with the Tories running out of steam down here - and heading toward an electoral defeat - the SNPs job becomes somewhat more difficult after..how many years?