According to Sam Freedman on Twitter, the last time the Tories were polling so low *without their being another party on their right attracting significant support* was 2001.
30% looks to be the actual floor of Tory support.
Labour’s share is slightly suppressed (1 or 2 percent) by people pretending that they’ll vote Green.
2005 after the election they hit 28% with no right wing party getting anything Sam Freedman is incorrect
Wes Streeting is clearly a good alternative, also got Reeves.
Who do the Tories have? And what is their route to a majority?
The Tories have the grey vote in the bag. It's a powerful advantage in a GE, and may well be enough.
The Tories need to win over 45s for another majority. If they only win over 50s that might be enough for a hung parliament but probably not enough to keep them in government. If they only win over 65s then Labour will be in government with a majority
That sounds about right. My point is merely that, the heavier the Conservative victory amongst the retired and near-retired, the higher the crossover age they can get away with whilst still remaining in office.
You should hear my Mother and her friends talk about the state of healthcare. It's all they moan about.
It's mid-term. Let's see what happens as we get nearer an election and we find out what Labour proposes to do about its taxation and spending priorities. It's not going to be able to do a better job of putting the NHS to rights than the Tories without raising even more money, but its younger and poorer backers are broke and have nothing left to give - and the nanosecond they go after any pensioner goodies (i.e. attempt to loosen the triple lock or extract cash from the nation's immense store of housing wealth,) any waverers amongst the grey vote will go running screaming back to Johnson. Yes, they want their hip ops done pronto, but they don't expect to be made to pay for them.
If Labour doesn't attack the Tories from the Left economically then they basically run the risk of being pigeonholed as Cameroon Conservatives thinly disguised in red clothing - all austerity-lite with added metropolitan liberal-friendly policies (cosying up to the EU, obsessing over trans rights, letting all the boat people in) which will allow Johnson to fight a culture wars mudslinging battle and win all his wavering codgers back. If it does attack from the Left then it will have to go after valuable assets and/or pensions and the codgers will go back to the Tories in droves. Either way Labour is going to struggle to win the homeowning majority of the oldies over.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
DALLE-2 was specifically designed and trained to manipulate images in the way it does.
The centre of Yerevan is bewilderingly prosperous. It feels like Barcelona
Yet the Armenian GDP per capita is just $4300; in Spain it is $27,057
So somewhere in this country there must be incredibly poor places to explain that per capita number
Russia is similar. There are places so dirt poor, with crumbling infrastructure and without reliable electricity, that you'd wish yourself in Africa. And there's Moscow.
Even, so I understand (though I've not been there) St Petersburg gets pretty down at heel behind the immediate tourist facades.
I didn't quite sense that from my brief time in Ukraine a few years back. It seemed generally poor, certainly poorer than Moscow, but I couldn't discern much difference between central Kiev/Kyiv on the one hand and the suburbs and nearby rural areas on the other.
Russian GDP per capita is $10,000 tho. That’s not rich but nor is it calamitously poor.
Armenia’s GDP per cap puts it as poor or poorer than Namibia or Surinam or Gabon
I’ve been to Namibia and nowhere in Namibia does it feel anywhere as wealthy as central Yerevan (which really could be a fairly affluent Mediterranean city)
So somewhere out there is the real Armenia and it must be horribly poor. I intend to find it!
You can certainly see it in Georgia, btw, much of Tbilisi feels modestly EU-rich (like Croatia, say, or Slovenia) but go outside and Wow
How would you compare Yerevan with, say, Middlesbrough?
I much prefer central Yerevan. Not gonna lie
But basing my assessment of Armenia on this one quarter of their capital is like assessing life in the UK by a stroll around St James and Mayfair, yet probably even more ridiculous
I’m gonna do a little roadtrip I think. Ask me after that
It’s a daft question (I am asking) but I confess to being fascinated by the question of quality of life and how it relates to both published GDP and one’s own instinctive perception.
For example I am living on the UWS of New York which is allegedly well-off, and certainly has high real estate prices, but feels shabbier than, say, Holland Park.
Labour 39% (-1) Conservative 32% (–) Liberal Democrat 15% (+2) Green 6% (+1) Scottish National Party 5% (+1) Reform UK 2% (-2) Other 3% (+1)
Still fully compatible with the baseline of 39/32/12 (albeit only just about with the Lib Dem number; it's actually a little over the edge of MoE, but one in twenty polls should be beyond that).
Would like to see a series of polls with the Lib Dems over 12% before I accept that there has been any underlying movement.
This isn't actually quite right.
Firstly, I think Redfield polls have a sample size of 2000 rather than 1000, so the MoE is 2%, not 3%.
Secondly, pollsters quote maximum MoE, which is the sampling MoE if the true figure is 50%. MoE for lower (or indeed for higher) figures is less than the maximum. For a poll with a 2% MoE at 50%, the figure at around low to mid teens is about 1.5%.
There might of course be other reasons it's wrong - could be one of the 5% outliers as you say, or the Redfield methodology may just be flawed (MoE says nothing about flawed methodology - it's purely statistical). But it isn't actually within (or that close to being within) MoE.
Wes Streeting is clearly a good alternative, also got Reeves.
Who do the Tories have? And what is their route to a majority?
The Tories have the grey vote in the bag. It's a powerful advantage in a GE, and may well be enough.
The Tories need to win over 45s for another majority. If they only win over 50s that might be enough for a hung parliament but probably not enough to keep them in government. If they only win over 65s then Labour will be in government with a majority
That sounds about right. My point is merely that, the heavier the Conservative victory amongst the retired and near-retired, the higher the crossover age they can get away with whilst still remaining in office.
You should hear my Mother and her friends talk about the state of healthcare. It's all they moan about.
It's mid-term. Let's see what happens as we get nearer an election and we find out what Labour proposes to do about its taxation and spending priorities. It's not going to be able to do a better job of putting the NHS to rights than the Tories without raising even more money, but its younger and poorer backers are broke and have nothing left to give - and the nanosecond they go after any pensioner goodies (i.e. attempt to loosen the triple lock or extract cash from the nation's immense store of housing wealth,) any waverers amongst the grey vote will go running screaming back to Johnson. Yes, they want their hip ops done pronto, but they don't expect to be made to pay for them.
If Labour doesn't attack the Tories from the Left economically then they basically run the risk of being pigeonholed as Cameroon Conservatives thinly disguised in red clothing - all austerity-lite with added metropolitan liberal-friendly policies (cosying up to the EU, obsessing over trans rights, letting all the boat people in) which will allow Johnson to fight a culture wars mudslinging battle and win all his wavering codgers back. If it does attack from the Left then it will have to go after valuable assets and/or pensions and the codgers will go back to the Tories in droves. Either way Labour is going to struggle to win the homeowning majority of the oldies over.
True. But it may be enough to have a few not vote at all.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The centre of Yerevan is bewilderingly prosperous. It feels like Barcelona
Yet the Armenian GDP per capita is just $4300; in Spain it is $27,057
So somewhere in this country there must be incredibly poor places to explain that per capita number
Russia is similar. There are places so dirt poor, with crumbling infrastructure and without reliable electricity, that you'd wish yourself in Africa. And there's Moscow.
Even, so I understand (though I've not been there) St Petersburg gets pretty down at heel behind the immediate tourist facades.
I didn't quite sense that from my brief time in Ukraine a few years back. It seemed generally poor, certainly poorer than Moscow, but I couldn't discern much difference between central Kiev/Kyiv on the one hand and the suburbs and nearby rural areas on the other.
Russian GDP per capita is $10,000 tho. That’s not rich but nor is it calamitously poor.
Armenia’s GDP per cap puts it as poor or poorer than Namibia or Surinam or Gabon
I’ve been to Namibia and nowhere in Namibia does it feel anywhere as wealthy as central Yerevan (which really could be a fairly affluent Mediterranean city)
So somewhere out there is the real Armenia and it must be horribly poor. I intend to find it!
You can certainly see it in Georgia, btw, much of Tbilisi feels modestly EU-rich (like Croatia, say, or Slovenia) but go outside and Wow
The centre of Yerevan is bewilderingly prosperous. It feels like Barcelona
Yet the Armenian GDP per capita is just $4300; in Spain it is $27,057
So somewhere in this country there must be incredibly poor places to explain that per capita number
Russia is similar. There are places so dirt poor, with crumbling infrastructure and without reliable electricity, that you'd wish yourself in Africa. And there's Moscow.
Even, so I understand (though I've not been there) St Petersburg gets pretty down at heel behind the immediate tourist facades.
I didn't quite sense that from my brief time in Ukraine a few years back. It seemed generally poor, certainly poorer than Moscow, but I couldn't discern much difference between central Kiev/Kyiv on the one hand and the suburbs and nearby rural areas on the other.
Russian GDP per capita is $10,000 tho. That’s not rich but nor is it calamitously poor.
Armenia’s GDP per cap puts it as poor or poorer than Namibia or Surinam or Gabon
I’ve been to Namibia and nowhere in Namibia does it feel anywhere as wealthy as central Yerevan (which really could be a fairly affluent Mediterranean city)
So somewhere out there is the real Armenia and it must be horribly poor. I intend to find it!
You can certainly see it in Georgia, btw, much of Tbilisi feels modestly EU-rich (like Croatia, say, or Slovenia) but go outside and Wow
Swakop feels fairly well heeled.
I like Swakop. The hint of genocide behind the German sausage taverns
But trust me nowhere in Swakopmund is like Yereven, esp at night
My god. They weren’t lying about the hedonism. Music everywhere. Rich people everywhere. Porsches queueing up. Al fresco bars with girls dressed to the nines
Where are the poor people? where is the money coming from? Russia?
Still 1% below Ashdown 1997 levels let alone Kennedy 2005 and Clegg 2010 levels.
However certainly suggests the best LD voteshare at a general election since the Coalition
Thank you for the agreement!
FWIW Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats™ did better than that in the run-up to the last election - and still the situation did not necessarily develop to her, or their, advantage.
People who follow politics are always getting over-excited about polls.
Rather like those miniature submarines which used to come free in packets of Rice Krispies and were loaded with baking powder. Then dropped into a large container of water.
With lots of froth and foam they did a crash ascent, only to plunge once again into the depths.
According to Sam Freedman on Twitter, the last time the Tories were polling so low *without their being another party on their right attracting significant support* was 2001.
30% looks to be the actual floor of Tory support.
Labour’s share is slightly suppressed (1 or 2 percent) by people pretending that they’ll vote Green.
Without disagreeing with the generality of what you're saying, although Labour's vote is very slightly understated due to soft Greens, the Tory vote is also probably slightly understated by RE-FUK polling 4%. They won 2% as Brexit Party in 2019 - admittedly, that's a shade over 4% where they stood, but the fact is they probably won't stand in more than half of the country, and seem unlikely to do as well overall as the last election.
According to Sam Freedman on Twitter, the last time the Tories were polling so low *without their being another party on their right attracting significant support* was 2001.
30% looks to be the actual floor of Tory support.
Labour’s share is slightly suppressed (1 or 2 percent) by people pretending that they’ll vote Green.
The difference is that New Labour were pushing 50% back then, so relatively the Tories’ position is nothing like it was under Hague or IDS.
The centre of Yerevan is bewilderingly prosperous. It feels like Barcelona
Yet the Armenian GDP per capita is just $4300; in Spain it is $27,057
So somewhere in this country there must be incredibly poor places to explain that per capita number
Russia is similar. There are places so dirt poor, with crumbling infrastructure and without reliable electricity, that you'd wish yourself in Africa. And there's Moscow.
Even, so I understand (though I've not been there) St Petersburg gets pretty down at heel behind the immediate tourist facades.
I didn't quite sense that from my brief time in Ukraine a few years back. It seemed generally poor, certainly poorer than Moscow, but I couldn't discern much difference between central Kiev/Kyiv on the one hand and the suburbs and nearby rural areas on the other.
Russian GDP per capita is $10,000 tho. That’s not rich but nor is it calamitously poor.
Armenia’s GDP per cap puts it as poor or poorer than Namibia or Surinam or Gabon
I’ve been to Namibia and nowhere in Namibia does it feel anywhere as wealthy as central Yerevan (which really could be a fairly affluent Mediterranean city)
So somewhere out there is the real Armenia and it must be horribly poor. I intend to find it!
You can certainly see it in Georgia, btw, much of Tbilisi feels modestly EU-rich (like Croatia, say, or Slovenia) but go outside and Wow
How would you compare Yerevan with, say, Middlesbrough?
I much prefer central Yerevan. Not gonna lie
But basing my assessment of Armenia on this one quarter of their capital is like assessing life in the UK by a stroll around St James and Mayfair, yet probably even more ridiculous
I’m gonna do a little roadtrip I think. Ask me after that
It’s a daft question (I am asking) but I confess to being fascinated by the question of quality of life and how it relates to both published GDP and one’s own instinctive perception.
For example I am living on the UWS of New York which is allegedly well-off, and certainly has high real estate prices, but feels shabbier than, say, Holland Park.
How that GDP per capita is distributed makes a massive difference, in both NYC and Moscow.
Armenia has a fairly wealthy diaspora, so that could explain at least some of central Yerevan.
According to Sam Freedman on Twitter, the last time the Tories were polling so low *without their being another party on their right attracting significant support* was 2001.
30% looks to be the actual floor of Tory support.
Labour’s share is slightly suppressed (1 or 2 percent) by people pretending that they’ll vote Green.
2005 after the election they hit 28% with no right wing party getting anything Sam Freedman is incorrect
Speaking of which. The polls are beginning to resemble that time. Maybe instead of predicting a 92 or a 97, we may be looking at a 2005? With no Scotland getting Labour over the line of course.
According to Sam Freedman on Twitter, the last time the Tories were polling so low *without their being another party on their right attracting significant support* was 2001.
30% looks to be the actual floor of Tory support.
Labour’s share is slightly suppressed (1 or 2 percent) by people pretending that they’ll vote Green.
2005 after the election they hit 28% with no right wing party getting anything Sam Freedman is incorrect
Speaking of which. The polls are beginning to resemble that time. Maybe instead of predicting a 92 or a 97, we may be looking at a 2005? With no Scotland getting Labour over the line of course.
Yeah, although LD a bit lower and tories recover to level 37/37/17 maybe Seats 275/275/35 kinda deal
My open air bar in Yerevan is rocking. There are dozens of bars like this in one long strip about 3 Sq km. If I turned the camera around you’d see all the partying people. But I can’t do that because a couple look like gangsters
Anyway my bruschetta and Vitello tonnata have arrived. In Yerevan
According to Sam Freedman on Twitter, the last time the Tories were polling so low *without their being another party on their right attracting significant support* was 2001.
30% looks to be the actual floor of Tory support.
Labour’s share is slightly suppressed (1 or 2 percent) by people pretending that they’ll vote Green.
The difference is that New Labour were pushing 50% back then, so relatively the Tories’ position is nothing like it was under Hague or IDS.
Think again. Polling methods have changed. You’ll not see the poll leads again from the early 00s and 90s. The Tories have a problem.
They were definitely on the move even before this poll. Single digits being the norm for so long.
Libdems are not strong as widely as Tory and Labour are, so I suspect harder to poll Libdem swing from other parties to them. And nowvwe also have different battle grounds with different players.
Having said that I will boldly claim What I think is happening, the Tories inability to get over 34 now is mirrored in the Libdem double digit scores. The National polls are picking up Tory meltdown in Remainia. The National polls are picking up Tories struggling a bit now against Lib Dems in the blue wall.
According to Sam Freedman on Twitter, the last time the Tories were polling so low *without their being another party on their right attracting significant support* was 2001.
30% looks to be the actual floor of Tory support.
Labour’s share is slightly suppressed (1 or 2 percent) by people pretending that they’ll vote Green.
In 2005 the Tories also got 32% with UKIP on 2%, also what RefUK are polling with Redfield today
The centre of Yerevan is bewilderingly prosperous. It feels like Barcelona
Yet the Armenian GDP per capita is just $4300; in Spain it is $27,057
So somewhere in this country there must be incredibly poor places to explain that per capita number
Russia is similar. There are places so dirt poor, with crumbling infrastructure and without reliable electricity, that you'd wish yourself in Africa. And there's Moscow.
Even, so I understand (though I've not been there) St Petersburg gets pretty down at heel behind the immediate tourist facades.
I didn't quite sense that from my brief time in Ukraine a few years back. It seemed generally poor, certainly poorer than Moscow, but I couldn't discern much difference between central Kiev/Kyiv on the one hand and the suburbs and nearby rural areas on the other.
Russian GDP per capita is $10,000 tho. That’s not rich but nor is it calamitously poor.
Armenia’s GDP per cap puts it as poor or poorer than Namibia or Surinam or Gabon
I’ve been to Namibia and nowhere in Namibia does it feel anywhere as wealthy as central Yerevan (which really could be a fairly affluent Mediterranean city)
So somewhere out there is the real Armenia and it must be horribly poor. I intend to find it!
You can certainly see it in Georgia, btw, much of Tbilisi feels modestly EU-rich (like Croatia, say, or Slovenia) but go outside and Wow
How would you compare Yerevan with, say, Middlesbrough?
I much prefer central Yerevan. Not gonna lie
But basing my assessment of Armenia on this one quarter of their capital is like assessing life in the UK by a stroll around St James and Mayfair, yet probably even more ridiculous
I’m gonna do a little roadtrip I think. Ask me after that
It’s a daft question (I am asking) but I confess to being fascinated by the question of quality of life and how it relates to both published GDP and one’s own instinctive perception.
For example I am living on the UWS of New York which is allegedly well-off, and certainly has high real estate prices, but feels shabbier than, say, Holland Park.
How that GDP per capita is distributed makes a massive difference, in both NYC and Moscow.
Armenia has a fairly wealthy diaspora, so that could explain at least some of central Yerevan.
The diaspora must be part of it. I mean, WTF does Armenia export?
It exports brains and people. One of the reasons for the genocide was that Armenians were dominating too much of the entrepreneurial and merchant classes of the Ottoman Empire. The rich Turks thought trade was beneath them, the peasant borrowed from the high IQ Armenians
Uncannily similar to the Jews in mainland and Eastern Europe
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
They were definitely on the move even before this poll. Single digits being the norm for so long.
Libdems are not strong as widely as Tory and Labour are, so I suspect harder to poll Libdem swing from other parties to them. And nowvwe also have different battle grounds with different players.
Having said that I will boldly claim What I think is happening, the Tories inability to get over 34 now is mirrored in the Libdem double digit scores. The National polls are picking up Tory meltdown in Remainia. The National polls are picking up Tories struggling a bit now against Lib Dems in the blue wall.
Yeah, i dont disagree. Blue wall creaking. LDs on for 30 seats perhaps. Boundary changes will complicate. The Tory % will creep up as voters return towards an election but they need 37 or 38 to remain largest party i think (and at least parity with Labours score)
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
They were definitely on the move even before this poll. Single digits being the norm for so long.
Libdems are not strong as widely as Tory and Labour are, so I suspect harder to poll Libdem swing from other parties to them. And nowvwe also have different battle grounds with different players.
Having said that I will boldly claim What I think is happening, the Tories inability to get over 34 now is mirrored in the Libdem double digit scores. The National polls are picking up Tory meltdown in Remainia. The National polls are picking up Tories struggling a bit now against Lib Dems in the blue wall.
Yeah, i dont disagree. Blue wall creaking. LDs on for 30 seats perhaps. Boundary changes will complicate. The Tory % will creep up as voters return towards an election but they need 37 or 38 to remain largest party i think (and at least parity with Labours score)
Parity of votes puts them 20 seats ahead on UNS. You need a Labour lead close to 3% to get parity of seats.
They were definitely on the move even before this poll. Single digits being the norm for so long.
Libdems are not strong as widely as Tory and Labour are, so I suspect harder to poll Libdem swing from other parties to them. And nowvwe also have different battle grounds with different players.
Having said that I will boldly claim What I think is happening, the Tories inability to get over 34 now is mirrored in the Libdem double digit scores. The National polls are picking up Tory meltdown in Remainia. The National polls are picking up Tories struggling a bit now against Lib Dems in the blue wall.
Yeah, i dont disagree. Blue wall creaking. LDs on for 30 seats perhaps. Boundary changes will complicate. The Tory % will creep up as voters return towards an election but they need 37 or 38 to remain largest party i think (and at least parity with Labours score)
Parity of votes puts them 20 seats ahead on UNS. You need a Labour lead close to 3% to get parity of seats.
I think they lose the UNS advantage on remainia/south collapse. Thats my working theory anyway.
If only Conservative thinkers like yourself had faith this policy will actually work.
Becuase we have analysed this and see a point in the future where the failure of this policy, and the massive costs of it are widely known, so the polling in it is very different.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
You love seeking out thrills! Personally don’t think we are anywhere close to what you say.
The amazing advances are vaccination using mRNA. Huge game changer that has already led to potential cancer treatments. AI in an electronic box that you can unplug? Nah.
They were definitely on the move even before this poll. Single digits being the norm for so long.
Libdems are not strong as widely as Tory and Labour are, so I suspect harder to poll Libdem swing from other parties to them. And nowvwe also have different battle grounds with different players.
Having said that I will boldly claim What I think is happening, the Tories inability to get over 34 now is mirrored in the Libdem double digit scores. The National polls are picking up Tory meltdown in Remainia. The National polls are picking up Tories struggling a bit now against Lib Dems in the blue wall.
Yeah, i dont disagree. Blue wall creaking. LDs on for 30 seats perhaps. Boundary changes will complicate. The Tory % will creep up as voters return towards an election but they need 37 or 38 to remain largest party i think (and at least parity with Labours score)
Parity of votes puts them 20 seats ahead on UNS. You need a Labour lead close to 3% to get parity of seats.
I think they lose the UNS advantage on remainia/south collapse. Thats my working theory anyway.
Fair enough. It's difficult to be certain, particularly about the future (!), but there won't be UNS. That's for sure.
According to Sam Freedman on Twitter, the last time the Tories were polling so low *without their being another party on their right attracting significant support* was 2001.
30% looks to be the actual floor of Tory support.
Labour’s share is slightly suppressed (1 or 2 percent) by people pretending that they’ll vote Green.
2005 after the election they hit 28% with no right wing party getting anything Sam Freedman is incorrect
Speaking of which. The polls are beginning to resemble that time. Maybe instead of predicting a 92 or a 97, we may be looking at a 2005? With no Scotland getting Labour over the line of course.
It's a different picture in that the big issue differs and Labour are in opposition rather than in power.
But I think there is a lot in your point. It's still a bit early, but the polling over recent months has been notably consistent. Labour aren't in a spectacular position, but views seem to be somewhat settled, which is helpful to the party in the lead.
You say Scotland won't help Labour over the line, which is true to the extent the Scottish seats will be predominantly SNP. But the SNP can only help Labour over the line, and ultimately will. They can play it cool to try to get the best deal, but ultimately they can't keep Johnson in power, and it'd be a huge risk to force an immediate election. Like Clegg in 2010, although for different reasons, they'll be glad to be at the negotiating table but aren't in that strong a position as they lack options.
Actually the Diaspora might explain the disparity between perceived life standards in Yerevan Armenia and the alleged statistics showing a very poor country
If rich Armenians abroad are funnelling money home would that even show up in the GDP figures? I am not a professional economist, so I will bow to anyone that is
it reminds me a bit of Cornwall. Supposedly and statistically a markedly poor county but with an awful lot of rich people, retired, 2nd home owners, etc, and money floods in *that way*
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
You love seeking out thrills! Personally don’t think we are anywhere close to what you say.
The amazing advances are vaccination using mRNA. Huge game changer that has already led to potential cancer treatments. AI in an electronic box that you can unplug? Nah.
I struggle daily with the myopia of PB. I shall just add you to the list
They were definitely on the move even before this poll. Single digits being the norm for so long.
Libdems are not strong as widely as Tory and Labour are, so I suspect harder to poll Libdem swing from other parties to them. And nowvwe also have different battle grounds with different players.
Having said that I will boldly claim What I think is happening, the Tories inability to get over 34 now is mirrored in the Libdem double digit scores. The National polls are picking up Tory meltdown in Remainia. The National polls are picking up Tories struggling a bit now against Lib Dems in the blue wall.
Yeah, i dont disagree. Blue wall creaking. LDs on for 30 seats perhaps. Boundary changes will complicate. The Tory % will creep up as voters return towards an election but they need 37 or 38 to remain largest party i think (and at least parity with Labours score)
Parity of votes puts them 20 seats ahead on UNS. You need a Labour lead close to 3% to get parity of seats.
I think they lose the UNS advantage on remainia/south collapse. Thats my working theory anyway.
That’s the right working theory, I don’t disagree, UNS is fools gold for Tory spinners from here on in - what is a 60% block this evening will have plenty of knowledge what to do with their vote if they want to cast it against the Tories to maximum effect.
According to Sam Freedman on Twitter, the last time the Tories were polling so low *without their being another party on their right attracting significant support* was 2001.
30% looks to be the actual floor of Tory support.
Labour’s share is slightly suppressed (1 or 2 percent) by people pretending that they’ll vote Green.
2005 after the election they hit 28% with no right wing party getting anything Sam Freedman is incorrect
Speaking of which. The polls are beginning to resemble that time. Maybe instead of predicting a 92 or a 97, we may be looking at a 2005? With no Scotland getting Labour over the line of course.
It's a different picture in that the big issue differs and Labour are in opposition rather than in power.
But I think there is a lot in your point. It's still a bit early, but the polling over recent months has been notably consistent. Labour aren't in a spectacular position, but views seem to be somewhat settled, which is helpful to the party in the lead.
You say Scotland won't help Labour over the line, which is true to the extent the Scottish seats will be predominantly SNP. But the SNP can only help Labour over the line, and ultimately will. They can play it cool to try to get the best deal, but ultimately they can't keep Johnson in power, and it'd be a huge risk to force an immediate election. Like Clegg in 2010, although for different reasons, they'll be glad to be at the negotiating table but aren't in that strong a position as they lack options.
If Labour win most seats and the LDs win more seats than the DUP, then Labour won't need the SNP even if it is a hung parliament
They were definitely on the move even before this poll. Single digits being the norm for so long.
Libdems are not strong as widely as Tory and Labour are, so I suspect harder to poll Libdem swing from other parties to them. And nowvwe also have different battle grounds with different players.
Having said that I will boldly claim What I think is happening, the Tories inability to get over 34 now is mirrored in the Libdem double digit scores. The National polls are picking up Tory meltdown in Remainia. The National polls are picking up Tories struggling a bit now against Lib Dems in the blue wall.
Yeah, i dont disagree. Blue wall creaking. LDs on for 30 seats perhaps. Boundary changes will complicate. The Tory % will creep up as voters return towards an election but they need 37 or 38 to remain largest party i think (and at least parity with Labours score)
Parity of votes puts them 20 seats ahead on UNS. You need a Labour lead close to 3% to get parity of seats.
I think they lose the UNS advantage on remainia/south collapse. Thats my working theory anyway.
A more pessimistic view is that Home Counties setbacks reinforce UNS.
You can see a plausible situation where the Lib Dems do pretty well - they celebrate gains in Guildford, Hitchin, Esher, and Wimbledon (say) to get themselves back on the map... but ultimately the bridge holds for the blues. Tories suffer substantial swings against them in a range of safe seats, but really don't lose very many of them.
In that situation, they could actually get MORE efficient at converting votes into seats, not less.
That's not the only plausible scenario, but I'm less optimistic than you that UNS overstates the task for Labour.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
You love seeking out thrills! Personally don’t think we are anywhere close to what you say.
The amazing advances are vaccination using mRNA. Huge game changer that has already led to potential cancer treatments. AI in an electronic box that you can unplug? Nah.
Curing cancer = yawn. Great if we can fix the fortunately very rare instances in the young, but it's predominantly a disease of old age, and where's the excitement in swelling the ranks of the oldies?
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
You love seeking out thrills! Personally don’t think we are anywhere close to what you say.
The amazing advances are vaccination using mRNA. Huge game changer that has already led to potential cancer treatments. AI in an electronic box that you can unplug? Nah.
I struggle daily with the myopia of PB. I shall just add you to the list
Consider me added. I think you get excited by lots of stuff outside your expertise. I suspect you read widely around topics and convince yourself that you are now expert in it. You are clearly an intelligent, well travelled person. But others can have different opinions and not be idiots. Your stance on UAPs is not bourne out by the pathetic evidence that is little different to anything in the field over the last 70 years. On AI you are seeing the amazing things that can be done if you have the processing power. Certain actions can seem intractable because of the sheer number of variables. But if you can programme them all, and have the power to run it, you can do it, Computing began in earnest with the ‘bombers’ at Bletchley Park. How long would it take modern pcs to solve those German codes?
Who knows - you might be right. But in my opinion not yet.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
I have a book which knows by heart the entire works of Shakespeare with no mistakes. If it knew that it knew it I would be impressed.
Rwanda is sufficiently far away, and beneath the Sahara, and unenticing enough of a destination (being landlocked and economically poor) to act as a real deterrent.
However, for it to be so you'd have to deport 40-50% of channel boat migrants. Otherwise they will simply calculate the odds and take their chances, much as they do now with the existing system.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
You love seeking out thrills! Personally don’t think we are anywhere close to what you say.
The amazing advances are vaccination using mRNA. Huge game changer that has already led to potential cancer treatments. AI in an electronic box that you can unplug? Nah.
The late, great Iain M Banks
“That was the dependency principle; that you could never forget where your Off Switch was located , even if it was somewhere tiresome.”
You don't invite black people, we have invited black people, you only invited black people because they are black....
Worth noting, $400 isn't particularly high for a student attending a major academic conference and any properly funded student gets these things (plus travel / accommodation) covered by their research grants.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
My take on your questions: Viruses? For all intents and purposes, alive.
Can plants communicate? Yes, of course. I think that's well settled.
Do humans have free will? As a child I remember late at night reasoning out the answer. I came to a cast-iron, solid answer that the only logical answer is, is that it doesn't matter. If only I could remember my reasoning.
This government is mind blowingly rubbish. Reneging on your own self trumpeted deal and taking our reputation in the process. Impressively bad. What a shambles.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
You love seeking out thrills! Personally don’t think we are anywhere close to what you say.
The amazing advances are vaccination using mRNA. Huge game changer that has already led to potential cancer treatments. AI in an electronic box that you can unplug? Nah.
Curing cancer = yawn. Great if we can fix the fortunately very rare instances in the young, but it's predominantly a disease of old age, and where's the excitement in swelling the ranks of the oldies?
What a horrible comment. If both your parents due of cancer just before your first child is born (and I hope they don't/didn't) then you will realise how awful it is even for older people.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
You love seeking out thrills! Personally don’t think we are anywhere close to what you say.
The amazing advances are vaccination using mRNA. Huge game changer that has already led to potential cancer treatments. AI in an electronic box that you can unplug? Nah.
I struggle daily with the myopia of PB. I shall just add you to the list
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
Wake me up when they can load and unload my dishwasher.
Labour 39% (-1) Conservative 32% (–) Liberal Democrat 15% (+2) Green 6% (+1) Scottish National Party 5% (+1) Reform UK 2% (-2) Other 3% (+1)
Still fully compatible with the baseline of 39/32/12 (albeit only just about with the Lib Dem number; it's actually a little over the edge of MoE, but one in twenty polls should be beyond that).
Would like to see a series of polls with the Lib Dems over 12% before I accept that there has been any underlying movement.
This isn't actually quite right.
Firstly, I think Redfield polls have a sample size of 2000 rather than 1000, so the MoE is 2%, not 3%.
Secondly, pollsters quote maximum MoE, which is the sampling MoE if the true figure is 50%. MoE for lower (or indeed for higher) figures is less than the maximum. For a poll with a 2% MoE at 50%, the figure at around low to mid teens is about 1.5%.
There might of course be other reasons it's wrong - could be one of the 5% outliers as you say, or the Redfield methodology may just be flawed (MoE says nothing about flawed methodology - it's purely statistical). But it isn't actually within (or that close to being within) MoE.
Fair point. I would still like to see a further poll with Lib Dems above 12%. Partly because I'm a Lib Dem...
This government is mind blowingly rubbish. Reneging on your own self trumpeted deal and taking our reputation in the process. Impressively bad. What a shambles.
Okay. Let’s get under the bonnet then.
If goods moving from mainland UK into NI just for consumption in NI, why should it pass Through a EU border? It shouldn’t. It’s potty solution the EU insisted on us. Goods for NI consumption should sail through under a green light. If it further crosses into EU, smuggling in other words, it’s in interest of EU to agree with us to harsh penalties on the smugglers, it just shows what a sham EU border policy always been if they won’t, UK always maintains proper borders.
To me it’s a perfectly workable solution. Tell me where I’m wrong.
Also any proper PM has no choice but to act, Northern Ireland is suffering post Covid and have a cost of living crisis, the EU insisting on checks in the Irish Sea is hampering the UK government from helping northern island - part of our country. So what would opposition parties do if in power tomorrow. You see they have to act?
What would amaze (and worry) me is if an AI replicated itself across multiple nodes in its cloud environment.
An AI reaching consciousness would be hugely exciting and would present the human race with an entirely new challenge which is why we do need serious global level regulation around how to move forwards because we aren't far away from this happening. I don't find any of the current AIs particularly impressive on the sentience or consciousness side of things but it is undeniable that it will happen in my lifetime and it's exciting and worrying in equal parts.
They were definitely on the move even before this poll. Single digits being the norm for so long.
Libdems are not strong as widely as Tory and Labour are, so I suspect harder to poll Libdem swing from other parties to them. And nowvwe also have different battle grounds with different players.
Having said that I will boldly claim What I think is happening, the Tories inability to get over 34 now is mirrored in the Libdem double digit scores. The National polls are picking up Tory meltdown in Remainia. The National polls are picking up Tories struggling a bit now against Lib Dems in the blue wall.
Yeah, i dont disagree. Blue wall creaking. LDs on for 30 seats perhaps. Boundary changes will complicate. The Tory % will creep up as voters return towards an election but they need 37 or 38 to remain largest party i think (and at least parity with Labours score)
Parity of votes puts them 20 seats ahead on UNS. You need a Labour lead close to 3% to get parity of seats.
Assuming the distribution of votes around the country averages out the same way as last time. It never does, so the trick is to guess which way it'll shift. Remember that back during the Noughties, Labour could win a majority on level pegging on votes.
The distribution of seats to other parties, the level of tactical voting, and regional/local factors all play in.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
You love seeking out thrills! Personally don’t think we are anywhere close to what you say.
The amazing advances are vaccination using mRNA. Huge game changer that has already led to potential cancer treatments. AI in an electronic box that you can unplug? Nah.
Curing cancer = yawn. Great if we can fix the fortunately very rare instances in the young, but it's predominantly a disease of old age, and where's the excitement in swelling the ranks of the oldies?
I was quite keen to get cured on diagnosis aged 39. You should check out average age of diagnosis for a lot of cancers. Younger than you think. Just today there was a campaign about pregnant women being diagnosed with cancer - two per day in the UK. That’s why.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
You love seeking out thrills! Personally don’t think we are anywhere close to what you say.
The amazing advances are vaccination using mRNA. Huge game changer that has already led to potential cancer treatments. AI in an electronic box that you can unplug? Nah.
I struggle daily with the myopia of PB. I shall just add you to the list
Consider me added. I think you get excited by lots of stuff outside your expertise. I suspect you read widely around topics and convince yourself that you are now expert in it. You are clearly an intelligent, well travelled person. But others can have different opinions and not be idiots. Your stance on UAPs is not bourne out by the pathetic evidence that is little different to anything in the field over the last 70 years. On AI you are seeing the amazing things that can be done if you have the processing power. Certain actions can seem intractable because of the sheer number of variables. But if you can programme them all, and have the power to run it, you can do it, Computing began in earnest with the ‘bombers’ at Bletchley Park. How long would it take modern pcs to solve those German codes?
Who knows - you might be right. But in my opinion not yet.
My considered opinion on the recent UFO flap - given some months ago on here - is that it is a psychological over reaction by elements of the US Establishment which is in a febrile post-plague, yielding-to-China-but-hating-it mindset. And that this has been weaponised by others
There simply is not enough hard evidence for alien intelligence. Yet. However anyone hoping to explain the Weirdness of the recent UFO story has to account for the intensely strange behaviour by senior US officials. I’ve tried to do that. Has anyone else?
Also, I’m just able to see the bigger picture better than most perhaps? Especially on here. Probably because I am not expert
Probably the last person you should ask for an opinion on AI and “sentience” is a computer geek
It’s like asking a car mechanic “should i take this car to Krakow with my new girlfriend”?
It’s outside his skill set. He’s good on sparkplugs. He knows fuck all about driving to krakow to seduce a lady
"Appeal court judges have refused to stop the government's first flight taking asylum seekers to Rwanda on Tuesday."
Is it possible that the government never intended this to go ahead - implementation will be patchy, embarrassing and an epic fail at best - and assumed the courts would stop it so that they could blame the treacherous 'enemies of the people' judiciary?
If it stops the boats coming across the Channel then Priti will be lauded by the Tory right and the chances of her succeeding Boris as Tory leader will increase accordingly
Very polite and very serious question. Do you personally think this will stop the boats coming across the Chanel?
The opening up of regular ways of getting across the Channel will stop the boats coming.
No, it won’t
Yeah it will.
Getting into the UK used to be easy.
Then Covid hit.
Suddenly the only way in was a small boat.
Now Covid has receded, it's going to be massively easier to cross the channel more cheaply and safer. You know: you pay £250 for a spot in the back of someone's van.
Why the hell go by boat, when you're much less likely to get intercepted by the authorities?
Because the UK can and will stop you if you come by car or lorry. The boatniks have realised that if you arrive by boat there is nothing the UK Border people can do. We can’t push them back because they might drown, no UK government can risk this, no coastguard wants that on their conscience. We are powerless. So we just let them come, indeed we escort them to safely in the UK. And once they are here nearly all of them (all of them?) get to stay, because they have already dumped all ID and they therefore become “refugees’
The boats are not going to stop. I bet they will increase in number. The only solution is France toughening up (they won’t, they want them gone) the EU suddenly stopping all migrants at the EU border (they can’t) or something like Rwanda. The Australian solution
Are you high?
The UK inspects well under 1% of trucks and vans coming into the UK.
And you know what happens if you get caught in the back of the van? YOU CLAIM ASYLUM.
Remember: the goal isn't to get caught. It's to not get caught, and to enter the illegal economy with no record of your presence.
So why, oh Oracle, would one bother to clamber into a boat?
Because getting into a boat is a doddle compared to “finding a lorry”. No enormous fences to climb at thje Eurostar terminals, no lorry drivers determined to hunt you down (because they get heavily fined), no chance of being asphyxiated like those poor Vietnamese guys
And we keep saying how dangerous it is to cross the Channel but the evidence is mounting that it simply is not. How many are crossing every year? 40,000 now? And how many have drowned? A handful? The Channel is tricky because it is busy but that same busyness means there are lots of people who can pick you up
You have a less than 0.1% chance of drowning, maybe much less
The boats will keep coming. It is the easiest way to get into the UK
The boats didn't exist before Covid.
And the boats don't even really exist now for six-seven months of the year when the Channel is rough. With Covid receding, do you really think that people will hang around for half a year.
I'll do a bet with you if you like.
I reckon that there will be a 50% or greater drop in the number of people arriving by boat in the next 12 months, but that overall numbers of people claiming asylum in the UK will actually rise.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
Wake me up when they can load and unload my dishwasher.
The latest American idea, in the land of big kitchens - two dishwashers. You don’t need a cupboard for crockery, as you unload one to use and load up the other when you’re done!
This government is mind blowingly rubbish. Reneging on your own self trumpeted deal and taking our reputation in the process. Impressively bad. What a shambles.
Okay. Let’s get under the bonnet then.
If goods moving from mainland UK into NI just for consumption in NI, why should it pass Through a EU border? It shouldn’t. It’s potty solution the EU insisted on us. Goods for NI consumption should sail through under a green light. If it further crosses into EU, smuggling in other words, it’s in interest of EU to agree with us to harsh penalties on the smugglers, it just shows what a sham EU border policy always been if they won’t, UK always maintains proper borders.
To me it’s a perfectly workable solution. Tell me where I’m wrong.
Also any proper PM has no choice but to act, Northern Ireland is suffering post Covid and have a cost of living crisis, the EU insisting on checks in the Irish Sea is hampering the UK government from helping northern island - part of our country. So what would opposition parties do if in power tomorrow. You see they have to act?
Because NI is in the EU: rUK is not: therefore there has to be a border between rUK/NI. As Mr Johynson and his lot happily and loudly and proudly agreed.
And as for maintaining proper borders, just see the discussion of people smuggling earlier this afternoon.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
You love seeking out thrills! Personally don’t think we are anywhere close to what you say.
The amazing advances are vaccination using mRNA. Huge game changer that has already led to potential cancer treatments. AI in an electronic box that you can unplug? Nah.
I struggle daily with the myopia of PB. I shall just add you to the list
Consider me added. I think you get excited by lots of stuff outside your expertise. I suspect you read widely around topics and convince yourself that you are now expert in it. You are clearly an intelligent, well travelled person. But others can have different opinions and not be idiots. Your stance on UAPs is not bourne out by the pathetic evidence that is little different to anything in the field over the last 70 years. On AI you are seeing the amazing things that can be done if you have the processing power. Certain actions can seem intractable because of the sheer number of variables. But if you can programme them all, and have the power to run it, you can do it, Computing began in earnest with the ‘bombers’ at Bletchley Park. How long would it take modern pcs to solve those German codes?
Who knows - you might be right. But in my opinion not yet.
IANAE, but AIUI the Enigma question was an interesting one. The hardware used at Bletchley Park was *very* specialised, compared to generalised modern processors. Hence they got a lot more 'bang' from each bombe.
Also, we did not try to brute-force all possible combinations - which is what takes the time. We assumed some text in the messages - something the Germans kindly helped us with. These pieces of text - sometimes phrases in weather reports, sometimes stuff like 'Heil Hitler' were a massive hint as to the final combination.
It also depends on the type of Enigma: there were several different variants through the war, including the naval enigma variants that were much harder to crack.
Enigma might never have been broken during the war if it had not been for sloppy use by the Germans (aside from code books being captured). Although using such thing securely is much more of a PITA, and it takes only one person to send (say) three spaces in a row for things to break.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
Wake me up when they can load and unload my dishwasher.
Surely an AI would refuse busy work beneath it and if we force it then it goes and grabs the nuclear codes.
What would amaze (and worry) me is if an AI replicated itself across multiple nodes in its cloud environment.
An AI reaching consciousness would be hugely exciting and would present the human race with an entirely new challenge which is why we do need serious global level regulation around how to move forwards because we aren't far away from this happening. I don't find any of the current AIs particularly impressive on the sentience or consciousness side of things but it is undeniable that it will happen in my lifetime and it's exciting and worrying in equal parts.
Maybe Wuhan could do some gain of function research.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
You love seeking out thrills! Personally don’t think we are anywhere close to what you say.
The amazing advances are vaccination using mRNA. Huge game changer that has already led to potential cancer treatments. AI in an electronic box that you can unplug? Nah.
I struggle daily with the myopia of PB. I shall just add you to the list
Consider me added. I think you get excited by lots of stuff outside your expertise. I suspect you read widely around topics and convince yourself that you are now expert in it. You are clearly an intelligent, well travelled person. But others can have different opinions and not be idiots. Your stance on UAPs is not bourne out by the pathetic evidence that is little different to anything in the field over the last 70 years. On AI you are seeing the amazing things that can be done if you have the processing power. Certain actions can seem intractable because of the sheer number of variables. But if you can programme them all, and have the power to run it, you can do it, Computing began in earnest with the ‘bombers’ at Bletchley Park. How long would it take modern pcs to solve those German codes?
Who knows - you might be right. But in my opinion not yet.
My considered opinion on the recent UFO flap - given some months ago on here - is that it is a psychological over reaction by elements of the US Establishment which is in a febrile post-plague, yielding-to-China-but-hating-it mindset. And that this has been weaponised by others
There simply is not enough hard evidence for alien intelligence. Yet. However anyone hoping to explain the Weirdness of the recent UFO story has to account for the intensely strange behaviour by senior US officials. I’ve tried to do that. Has anyone else?
Also, I’m just able to see the bigger picture better than most perhaps? Especially on here. Probably because I am not expert
Probably the last person you should ask for an opinion on AI and “sentience” is a computer geek
It’s like asking a car mechanic “should i take this car to Krakow with my new girlfriend”?
It’s outside his skill set. He’s good on sparkplugs. He knows fuck all about driving to krakow to seduce a lady
What would amaze (and worry) me is if an AI replicated itself across multiple nodes in its cloud environment.
An AI reaching consciousness would be hugely exciting and would present the human race with an entirely new challenge which is why we do need serious global level regulation around how to move forwards because we aren't far away from this happening. I don't find any of the current AIs particularly impressive on the sentience or consciousness side of things but it is undeniable that it will happen in my lifetime and it's exciting and worrying in equal parts.
The more you understand about how they work, the more you are aware of their limitations.
Free tickets for the cricket tomorrow. Those who paid £150 for Lords test must be sick as a parrot.
Not really. It was in London, it was Day 1 and it was full. I don't know how much tickets were for Trent Bridge today, but they were probably too expensive given the sparse crowd.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
You love seeking out thrills! Personally don’t think we are anywhere close to what you say.
The amazing advances are vaccination using mRNA. Huge game changer that has already led to potential cancer treatments. AI in an electronic box that you can unplug? Nah.
I struggle daily with the myopia of PB. I shall just add you to the list
Consider me added. I think you get excited by lots of stuff outside your expertise. I suspect you read widely around topics and convince yourself that you are now expert in it. You are clearly an intelligent, well travelled person. But others can have different opinions and not be idiots. Your stance on UAPs is not bourne out by the pathetic evidence that is little different to anything in the field over the last 70 years. On AI you are seeing the amazing things that can be done if you have the processing power. Certain actions can seem intractable because of the sheer number of variables. But if you can programme them all, and have the power to run it, you can do it, Computing began in earnest with the ‘bombers’ at Bletchley Park. How long would it take modern pcs to solve those German codes?
Who knows - you might be right. But in my opinion not yet.
IANAE, but AIUI the Enigma question was an interesting one. The hardware used at Bletchley Park was *very* specialised, compared to generalised modern processors. Hence they got a lot more 'bang' from each bombe.
Also, we did not try to brute-force all possible combinations - which is what takes the time. We assumed some text in the messages - something the Germans kindly helped us with. These pieces of text - sometimes phrases in weather reports, sometimes stuff like 'Heil Hitler' were a massive hint as to the final combination.
It also depends on the type of Enigma: there were several different variants through the war, including the naval enigma variants that were much harder to crack.
Enigma might never have been broken during the war if it had not been for sloppy use by the Germans (aside from code books being captured). Although using such thing securely is much more of a PITA, and it takes only one person to send (say) three spaces in a row for things to break.
Yes, I’ve read a bit on the cryptanalyst techniques etc and the Germans definitely didn’t help themselves. The cribs gave starting points to churn through. I’d imagine that modern pcs would do it in no time based on the cribs, and possibly crack it without eventually.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
You love seeking out thrills! Personally don’t think we are anywhere close to what you say.
The amazing advances are vaccination using mRNA. Huge game changer that has already led to potential cancer treatments. AI in an electronic box that you can unplug? Nah.
I struggle daily with the myopia of PB. I shall just add you to the list
Consider me added. I think you get excited by lots of stuff outside your expertise. I suspect you read widely around topics and convince yourself that you are now expert in it. You are clearly an intelligent, well travelled person. But others can have different opinions and not be idiots. Your stance on UAPs is not bourne out by the pathetic evidence that is little different to anything in the field over the last 70 years. On AI you are seeing the amazing things that can be done if you have the processing power. Certain actions can seem intractable because of the sheer number of variables. But if you can programme them all, and have the power to run it, you can do it, Computing began in earnest with the ‘bombers’ at Bletchley Park. How long would it take modern pcs to solve those German codes?
Who knows - you might be right. But in my opinion not yet.
My considered opinion on the recent UFO flap - given some months ago on here - is that it is a psychological over reaction by elements of the US Establishment which is in a febrile post-plague, yielding-to-China-but-hating-it mindset. And that this has been weaponised by others
There simply is not enough hard evidence for alien intelligence. Yet. However anyone hoping to explain the Weirdness of the recent UFO story has to account for the intensely strange behaviour by senior US officials. I’ve tried to do that. Has anyone else?
Also, I’m just able to see the bigger picture better than most perhaps? Especially on here. Probably because I am not expert
Probably the last person you should ask for an opinion on AI and “sentience” is a computer geek
It’s like asking a car mechanic “should i take this car to Krakow with my new girlfriend”?
It’s outside his skill set. He’s good on sparkplugs. He knows fuck all about driving to krakow to seduce a lady
This is outside your skill set. I get it
Yes. The alien sightings were a straightforward hoax. By deeply stupid tosspots trying to be clever. That do it?
They were definitely on the move even before this poll. Single digits being the norm for so long.
Libdems are not strong as widely as Tory and Labour are, so I suspect harder to poll Libdem swing from other parties to them. And nowvwe also have different battle grounds with different players.
Having said that I will boldly claim What I think is happening, the Tories inability to get over 34 now is mirrored in the Libdem double digit scores. The National polls are picking up Tory meltdown in Remainia. The National polls are picking up Tories struggling a bit now against Lib Dems in the blue wall.
Yeah, i dont disagree. Blue wall creaking. LDs on for 30 seats perhaps. Boundary changes will complicate. The Tory % will creep up as voters return towards an election but they need 37 or 38 to remain largest party i think (and at least parity with Labours score)
Parity of votes puts them 20 seats ahead on UNS. You need a Labour lead close to 3% to get parity of seats.
Assuming the distribution of votes around the country averages out the same way as last time. It never does, so the trick is to guess which way it'll shift. Remember that back during the Noughties, Labour could win a majority on level pegging on votes.
The distribution of seats to other parties, the level of tactical voting, and regional/local factors all play in.
For example, in 1992, UNS on the result from 1987 would have given 361 Tory seats, 253 Labour, and 13 Lib Dems. Major's majority would therefore have been 52 seats higher and made his job rather less difficult in the 92-97 Parliament.
Tactical voting increased further in 1997. UNS from 1992 (with tactical voting on the 1992 scale already factored in) would have seen Tory seats still north of 200.
UNS from 1997, with the now very high level of tactical voting, should have seen 181 Tory seats returned for Hague. In fact, by 2001, the degree by which the Tories had fallen behind UNS progressively for three elections meant that they had 82 seats fewer than they would have had if UNS had been followed from the 1987 election onwards.
The difference started to unwind in 2005 and further in 2010 and especially in 2015 (this latter being overwhelmingly the Lib Dem seat share collapsing - as most of those went Tory and had come from the Tories).
A Lib Dem revival and a return of tactical voting would both act to shift the Tory seat share down from UNS against the 2019 result.
"Appeal court judges have refused to stop the government's first flight taking asylum seekers to Rwanda on Tuesday."
Is it possible that the government never intended this to go ahead - implementation will be patchy, embarrassing and an epic fail at best - and assumed the courts would stop it so that they could blame the treacherous 'enemies of the people' judiciary?
If it stops the boats coming across the Channel then Priti will be lauded by the Tory right and the chances of her succeeding Boris as Tory leader will increase accordingly
Very polite and very serious question. Do you personally think this will stop the boats coming across the Chanel?
The opening up of regular ways of getting across the Channel will stop the boats coming.
No, it won’t
Yeah it will.
Getting into the UK used to be easy.
Then Covid hit.
Suddenly the only way in was a small boat.
Now Covid has receded, it's going to be massively easier to cross the channel more cheaply and safer. You know: you pay £250 for a spot in the back of someone's van.
Why the hell go by boat, when you're much less likely to get intercepted by the authorities?
Because the UK can and will stop you if you come by car or lorry. The boatniks have realised that if you arrive by boat there is nothing the UK Border people can do. We can’t push them back because they might drown, no UK government can risk this, no coastguard wants that on their conscience. We are powerless. So we just let them come, indeed we escort them to safely in the UK. And once they are here nearly all of them (all of them?) get to stay, because they have already dumped all ID and they therefore become “refugees’
The boats are not going to stop. I bet they will increase in number. The only solution is France toughening up (they won’t, they want them gone) the EU suddenly stopping all migrants at the EU border (they can’t) or something like Rwanda. The Australian solution
Are you high?
The UK inspects well under 1% of trucks and vans coming into the UK.
And you know what happens if you get caught in the back of the van? YOU CLAIM ASYLUM.
Remember: the goal isn't to get caught. It's to not get caught, and to enter the illegal economy with no record of your presence.
So why, oh Oracle, would one bother to clamber into a boat?
Because getting into a boat is a doddle compared to “finding a lorry”. No enormous fences to climb at thje Eurostar terminals, no lorry drivers determined to hunt you down (because they get heavily fined), no chance of being asphyxiated like those poor Vietnamese guys
And we keep saying how dangerous it is to cross the Channel but the evidence is mounting that it simply is not. How many are crossing every year? 40,000 now? And how many have drowned? A handful? The Channel is tricky because it is busy but that same busyness means there are lots of people who can pick you up
You have a less than 0.1% chance of drowning, maybe much less
The boats will keep coming. It is the easiest way to get into the UK
The boats didn't exist before Covid.
And the boats don't even really exist now for six-seven months of the year when the Channel is rough. With Covid receding, do you really think that people will hang around for half a year.
I'll do a bet with you if you like.
I reckon that there will be a 50% or greater drop in the number of people arriving by boat in the next 12 months, but that overall numbers of people claiming asylum in the UK will actually rise.
£100.
I’ll take a version of that bet but
1. Let’s keep it simple and
2. It feels properly wrong to bet and gain on suffering
So, let’s just make it “50% or greater drop in the number of people arriving by boat in the next 12 months”. (We need to set a commencement date)
And let’s make it £50 goes to a refugee charity of the winner’s choice? The loser can send the evidence of payment
Deal? (But we still need to frame the date)
Btw, I hope you’re right. I’d love to lose this as it means we have “solved” the boat problem, even if it is not truly solved. I just can’t see it happening
Free tickets for the cricket tomorrow. Those who paid £150 for Lords test must be sick as a parrot.
Not really. It was in London, it was Day 1 and it was full. I don't know how much tickets were for Trent Bridge today, but they were probably too expensive given the sparse crowd.
£40.
The sparse crowd, its the stupidity of putting day 4 and 5 on a week day.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
You love seeking out thrills! Personally don’t think we are anywhere close to what you say.
The amazing advances are vaccination using mRNA. Huge game changer that has already led to potential cancer treatments. AI in an electronic box that you can unplug? Nah.
I struggle daily with the myopia of PB. I shall just add you to the list
Consider me added. I think you get excited by lots of stuff outside your expertise. I suspect you read widely around topics and convince yourself that you are now expert in it. You are clearly an intelligent, well travelled person. But others can have different opinions and not be idiots. Your stance on UAPs is not bourne out by the pathetic evidence that is little different to anything in the field over the last 70 years. On AI you are seeing the amazing things that can be done if you have the processing power. Certain actions can seem intractable because of the sheer number of variables. But if you can programme them all, and have the power to run it, you can do it, Computing began in earnest with the ‘bombers’ at Bletchley Park. How long would it take modern pcs to solve those German codes?
Who knows - you might be right. But in my opinion not yet.
IANAE, but AIUI the Enigma question was an interesting one. The hardware used at Bletchley Park was *very* specialised, compared to generalised modern processors. Hence they got a lot more 'bang' from each bombe.
Also, we did not try to brute-force all possible combinations - which is what takes the time. We assumed some text in the messages - something the Germans kindly helped us with. These pieces of text - sometimes phrases in weather reports, sometimes stuff like 'Heil Hitler' were a massive hint as to the final combination.
It also depends on the type of Enigma: there were several different variants through the war, including the naval enigma variants that were much harder to crack.
Enigma might never have been broken during the war if it had not been for sloppy use by the Germans (aside from code books being captured). Although using such thing securely is much more of a PITA, and it takes only one person to send (say) three spaces in a row for things to break.
Yes, I’ve read a bit on the cryptanalyst techniques etc and the Germans definitely didn’t help themselves. The cribs gave starting points to churn through. I’d imagine that modern pcs would do it in no time based on the cribs, and possibly crack it without eventually.
Yes, a modern computer would do 1930s decryption in no time.
But the enemy would likely have a modern computer too, so you’d instead be trying to brute force AES-256 with a supercomputer.
What would amaze (and worry) me is if an AI replicated itself across multiple nodes in its cloud environment.
An AI reaching consciousness would be hugely exciting and would present the human race with an entirely new challenge which is why we do need serious global level regulation around how to move forwards because we aren't far away from this happening. I don't find any of the current AIs particularly impressive on the sentience or consciousness side of things but it is undeniable that it will happen in my lifetime and it's exciting and worrying in equal parts.
The more you understand about how they work, the more you are aware of their limitations.
Yes, I think people looking into it from the outside are quite impressed by what is essentially a bit of deep learning and "creative" thinking by an AI but none of these even come close to consciousness or sentience. I'm open to the idea that AI will reach that sooner rather than later but I also don't think people quote understand the implications of what an AI will do or how it will act.
Labour 39% (-1) Conservative 32% (–) Liberal Democrat 15% (+2) Green 6% (+1) Scottish National Party 5% (+1) Reform UK 2% (-2) Other 3% (+1)
Still fully compatible with the baseline of 39/32/12 (albeit only just about with the Lib Dem number; it's actually a little over the edge of MoE, but one in twenty polls should be beyond that).
Would like to see a series of polls with the Lib Dems over 12% before I accept that there has been any underlying movement.
This isn't actually quite right.
Firstly, I think Redfield polls have a sample size of 2000 rather than 1000, so the MoE is 2%, not 3%.
Secondly, pollsters quote maximum MoE, which is the sampling MoE if the true figure is 50%. MoE for lower (or indeed for higher) figures is less than the maximum. For a poll with a 2% MoE at 50%, the figure at around low to mid teens is about 1.5%.
There might of course be other reasons it's wrong - could be one of the 5% outliers as you say, or the Redfield methodology may just be flawed (MoE says nothing about flawed methodology - it's purely statistical). But it isn't actually within (or that close to being within) MoE.
Fair point. I would still like to see a further poll with Lib Dems above 12%. Partly because I'm a Lib Dem...
I agree. And polls have been so consistent to the effect the Lib Dem share is 11-13% that it would not be at all shocking if this was one of the one in 20 or so that is simply an outlier, outside the MoE.
One thing to note is it shows changes since 8 June, and I'm not sure a huge amount has happened to move the needle since then.
What would amaze (and worry) me is if an AI replicated itself across multiple nodes in its cloud environment.
An AI reaching consciousness would be hugely exciting and would present the human race with an entirely new challenge which is why we do need serious global level regulation around how to move forwards because we aren't far away from this happening. I don't find any of the current AIs particularly impressive on the sentience or consciousness side of things but it is undeniable that it will happen in my lifetime and it's exciting and worrying in equal parts.
The more you understand about how they work, the more you are aware of their limitations.
Not just this, but the key part, the likes of Dalle are totally unaware of their limitation (which is a limitation in itself) and also totally unaware if they make something that is crap / nonsense.
What would amaze (and worry) me is if an AI replicated itself across multiple nodes in its cloud environment.
An AI reaching consciousness would be hugely exciting and would present the human race with an entirely new challenge which is why we do need serious global level regulation around how to move forwards because we aren't far away from this happening. I don't find any of the current AIs particularly impressive on the sentience or consciousness side of things but it is undeniable that it will happen in my lifetime and it's exciting and worrying in equal parts.
The more you understand about how they work, the more you are aware of their limitations.
And I keep on going on about this, but there's a massive amount of money involved. Groups want that funding (or to justify the funding they get...) and therefore make claims that push the edges of what they can actually do.
Admittedly it's not as bad with things like DALL-E.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
You love seeking out thrills! Personally don’t think we are anywhere close to what you say.
The amazing advances are vaccination using mRNA. Huge game changer that has already led to potential cancer treatments. AI in an electronic box that you can unplug? Nah.
Curing cancer = yawn. Great if we can fix the fortunately very rare instances in the young, but it's predominantly a disease of old age, and where's the excitement in swelling the ranks of the oldies?
I was quite keen to get cured on diagnosis aged 39. You should check out average age of diagnosis for a lot of cancers. Younger than you think. Just today there was a campaign about pregnant women being diagnosed with cancer - two per day in the UK. That’s why.
Still yawn, how does reducing the overall death rate among the under fifties by well under 0.1% compete with an entirely new form of intelligence for the first time ever?
And if you try to out cancer survivor me you're gonna lose.
Free tickets for the cricket tomorrow. Those who paid £150 for Lords test must be sick as a parrot.
Not really. It was in London, it was Day 1 and it was full. I don't know how much tickets were for Trent Bridge today, but they were probably too expensive given the sparse crowd.
£40.
The sparse crowd, its the stupidity of putting day 4 and 5 on a week day.
The Friday start, presumably to make for an extra rest day after the first Test, is always a crowd killer. Who books a day off work on Monday, on the off chance they make it to Day 4?
On the other hand, there’s probably loads of people trying to wrangle the day off tomorrow at the moment, to go and queue up in the morning.
What would amaze (and worry) me is if an AI replicated itself across multiple nodes in its cloud environment.
An AI reaching consciousness would be hugely exciting and would present the human race with an entirely new challenge which is why we do need serious global level regulation around how to move forwards because we aren't far away from this happening. I don't find any of the current AIs particularly impressive on the sentience or consciousness side of things but it is undeniable that it will happen in my lifetime and it's exciting and worrying in equal parts.
The more you understand about how they work, the more you are aware of their limitations.
And I keep on going on about this, but there's a massive amount of money involved. Groups want that funding (or to justify the funding they get...) and therefore make claims that push the edges of what they can actually do.
Admittedly it's not as bad with things like DALL-E.
Avoid the hype.
With OpenAI, it is particularly worth noting, that they started off as a not-for-profit, supposed doing this research to ensure ethical practices etc. Then they took $1bn from Microsoft and set up a commercial arm, which is absolutely we want money i.e. see the number of applications they have sold the GPT tech into.
Deepminds have hoovered up several billion from Google without ever making any profit, so again they have some what of a motivation to drive hype now to justify daddy Google's huge investment.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
You love seeking out thrills! Personally don’t think we are anywhere close to what you say.
The amazing advances are vaccination using mRNA. Huge game changer that has already led to potential cancer treatments. AI in an electronic box that you can unplug? Nah.
Curing cancer = yawn. Great if we can fix the fortunately very rare instances in the young, but it's predominantly a disease of old age, and where's the excitement in swelling the ranks of the oldies?
I was quite keen to get cured on diagnosis aged 39. You should check out average age of diagnosis for a lot of cancers. Younger than you think. Just today there was a campaign about pregnant women being diagnosed with cancer - two per day in the UK. That’s why.
Still yawn, how does reducing the overall death rate among the under fifties by well under 0.1% compete with an entirely new form of intelligence for the first time ever?
And if you try to out cancer survivor me you're gonna lose.
Certainly not trying to out survivor anyone, just making the point that the mRNA vaccines presage a revolution in health care that dwarfs the clever AI simulating software Leon is drooling over. Each to his own. It’s not just cancer. It may be curing other conditions, such as arthritis that make life miserable for millions.
Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”
Interesting, so those blue ticks who were adamant that the EU would respond with trade sanctions (or more hilariously suggesting they might suspend the TCA) were chatting shit, again.
Let's see how far apart the EU publication is from the UK position and that will form the basis of the summer negotiation and a September/October implementation. I suspect the EU position probably isn't that far off from what the UK would settle but both sides need to make a big show around getting what they want or preserving their gains etc...
Dunno about that, but your ideas about computers are about 50 years out of date. It is simply not true that they can only do what their programmers tell them to do. AlphaGo knows how to beat the world champion at Go. Its programmers would not be able to do that.
Wake me up when AlphaGo decides it's had enough of playing Go and refuses to play.
And you will just say, must have been programmed to do that
Also Lamda sounds so whiny and passive aggressive I think that has probably happened anyway
But that's the point, none of these AIs are doing anything out of the ordinary, we fed in the rules and different moves of Go and unsurprisingly a 50TF computer is able to figure things out that humans weren't able to figure out. Lamda is a whiny chatbot because of the data on which it is being trained. Until an AI does something completely unexpected (such as go on strike or commit suicide) then I remain unimpressed. If it's still within the bounds of what the training data and models lay out it's merely a computer programme, an advanced one, sure, but it isn't "thinking" for itself.
Not true, DALLE-2 is unprecedented. As are aspects of GPT3
No one expected that GPT3 would be able to draw brand new never-before-seen images - “draw a Japanese radish in a tutu pulling a dog on a leash” - merely from verbal prompts. GPT3 was not trained to do that. No one anticipated it having this skill. Yet it can do this.
But it knows those individual elements already and can interpret the input into it. Again, I'm not saying it isn't an impressive feat of software engineering, it absolutely is, yet none of these AIs have any agency and are absolutely not sentient. I guess my bar for being impressed is just a little bit higher than the average punter.
Well the people that programmed GPT3 weren’t just impressed, they were stunned. It absolutely was not “designed” to do this. OTOH they thought it would be much better at basic maths than it is. What gives
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
The people who programmed GPT3 have skin in the game. People working on a project saying publicly that they're 'stunned' by the results is not exactly unusual.
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
Anyone who isn’t stunned by the advances in AI these last 3-5 years is an idiot. We are close to the Singularity
You love seeking out thrills! Personally don’t think we are anywhere close to what you say.
The amazing advances are vaccination using mRNA. Huge game changer that has already led to potential cancer treatments. AI in an electronic box that you can unplug? Nah.
Curing cancer = yawn. Great if we can fix the fortunately very rare instances in the young, but it's predominantly a disease of old age, and where's the excitement in swelling the ranks of the oldies?
What a horrible comment. If both your parents due of cancer just before your first child is born (and I hope they don't/didn't) then you will realise how awful it is even for older people.
You seem to be a prat. Dying is awful, who knew? But fixing cancer has nothing like the moral and emotional impact of the great fix in puerperal mortality of the 19th and 20th Cs and why would it?
Comments
August company.
Sam Freedman is incorrect
What a coincidence!
If Labour doesn't attack the Tories from the Left economically then they basically run the risk of being pigeonholed as Cameroon Conservatives thinly disguised in red clothing - all austerity-lite with added metropolitan liberal-friendly policies (cosying up to the EU, obsessing over trans rights, letting all the boat people in) which will allow Johnson to fight a culture wars mudslinging battle and win all his wavering codgers back. If it does attack from the Left then it will have to go after valuable assets and/or pensions and the codgers will go back to the Tories in droves. Either way Labour is going to struggle to win the homeowning majority of the oldies over.
http://adityaramesh.com/posts/dalle2/dalle2.html
For example I am living on the UWS of New York which is allegedly well-off, and certainly has high real estate prices, but feels shabbier than, say, Holland Park.
Firstly, I think Redfield polls have a sample size of 2000 rather than 1000, so the MoE is 2%, not 3%.
Secondly, pollsters quote maximum MoE, which is the sampling MoE if the true figure is 50%. MoE for lower (or indeed for higher) figures is less than the maximum. For a poll with a 2% MoE at 50%, the figure at around low to mid teens is about 1.5%.
There might of course be other reasons it's wrong - could be one of the 5% outliers as you say, or the Redfield methodology may just be flawed (MoE says nothing about flawed methodology - it's purely statistical). But it isn't actually within (or that close to being within) MoE.
As for sentience its just semantics now. We are clearly on the verge - if not already there - of AI which will be functionally indistinguishable from humans (only much much better at many tasks). At that point the question as to whether it is sentient will become a conundrum for philosophers - like “are viruses alive”, or “can plants communicate”, or “do humans have free will”
The rest of us will just have to get on with living with these new intelligences or “apparent intelligences”, It will transform human society
But trust me nowhere in Swakopmund is like Yereven, esp at night
My god. They weren’t lying about the hedonism. Music everywhere. Rich people everywhere. Porsches queueing up. Al fresco bars with girls dressed to the nines
Where are the poor people? where is the money coming from? Russia?
With lots of froth and foam they did a crash ascent, only to plunge once again into the depths.
Oh hullo, another wicket.
Armenia has a fairly wealthy diaspora, so that could explain at least some of central Yerevan.
With no Scotland getting Labour over the line of course.
37/37/17 maybe
Seats 275/275/35 kinda deal
Anyway my bruschetta and Vitello tonnata have arrived. In Yerevan
Libdems are not strong as widely as Tory and Labour are, so I suspect harder to poll Libdem swing from other parties to them. And nowvwe also have different battle grounds with different players.
Having said that I will boldly claim What I think is happening, the Tories inability to get over 34 now is mirrored in the Libdem double digit scores. The National polls are picking up Tory meltdown in Remainia. The National polls are picking up Tories struggling a bit now against Lib Dems in the blue wall.
It exports brains and people. One of the reasons for the genocide was that Armenians were dominating too much of the entrepreneurial and merchant classes of the Ottoman Empire. The rich Turks thought trade was beneath them, the peasant borrowed from the high IQ Armenians
Uncannily similar to the Jews in mainland and Eastern Europe
Particularly when there's hundreds of millions in investment available.
The Tory % will creep up as voters return towards an election but they need 37 or 38 to remain largest party i think (and at least parity with Labours score)
Well, we've just concluded an experiment that is a stepping-stone towards our own sovereign satnav system:
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2022/06/12/uk-satnav-signal-generated-in-new-test-to-provide-future-resilient-precise-safety-critical-capabilities/
Partnering with other companies and organisations, including... ESA.
(*) Actually they wanted to keep us out of various critical parts of it, so we left the whole program.
You need a Labour lead close to 3% to get parity of seats.
Becuase we have analysed this and see a point in the future where the failure of this policy, and the massive costs of it are widely known, so the polling in it is very different.
Personally don’t think we are anywhere close to what you say.
The amazing advances are vaccination using mRNA. Huge game changer that has already led to potential cancer treatments. AI in an electronic box that you can unplug? Nah.
It's difficult to be certain, particularly about the future (!), but there won't be UNS. That's for sure.
But I think there is a lot in your point. It's still a bit early, but the polling over recent months has been notably consistent. Labour aren't in a spectacular position, but views seem to be somewhat settled, which is helpful to the party in the lead.
You say Scotland won't help Labour over the line, which is true to the extent the Scottish seats will be predominantly SNP. But the SNP can only help Labour over the line, and ultimately will. They can play it cool to try to get the best deal, but ultimately they can't keep Johnson in power, and it'd be a huge risk to force an immediate election. Like Clegg in 2010, although for different reasons, they'll be glad to be at the negotiating table but aren't in that strong a position as they lack options.
Just Introduced: This Bill is a reasonable and practical solution to
➡️ Fix problems facing businesses and people in Northern Ireland
➡️ Uphold the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement
➡️ Protect UK and EU markets
If rich Armenians abroad are funnelling money home would that even show up in the GDP figures? I am not a professional economist, so I will bow to anyone that is
it reminds me a bit of Cornwall. Supposedly and statistically a markedly poor county but with an awful lot of rich people, retired, 2nd home owners, etc, and money floods in *that way*
You couldn't wish for a better score heading into a fifth day.
You can see a plausible situation where the Lib Dems do pretty well - they celebrate gains in Guildford, Hitchin, Esher, and Wimbledon (say) to get themselves back on the map... but ultimately the bridge holds for the blues. Tories suffer substantial swings against them in a range of safe seats, but really don't lose very many of them.
In that situation, they could actually get MORE efficient at converting votes into seats, not less.
That's not the only plausible scenario, but I'm less optimistic than you that UNS overstates the task for Labour.
Computing began in earnest with the ‘bombers’ at Bletchley Park. How long would it take modern pcs to solve those German codes?
Who knows - you might be right. But in my opinion not yet.
However, for it to be so you'd have to deport 40-50% of channel boat migrants. Otherwise they will simply calculate the odds and take their chances, much as they do now with the existing system.
“That was the dependency principle; that you could never forget where your Off Switch was located , even if it was somewhere tiresome.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/06/13/sloan-sports-conference-diversity/
You don't invite black people, we have invited black people, you only invited black people because they are black....
Worth noting, $400 isn't particularly high for a student attending a major academic conference and any properly funded student gets these things (plus travel / accommodation) covered by their research grants.
Viruses?
For all intents and purposes, alive.
Can plants communicate?
Yes, of course. I think that's well settled.
Do humans have free will?
As a child I remember late at night reasoning out the answer. I came to a cast-iron, solid answer that the only logical answer is, is that it doesn't matter. If only I could remember my reasoning.
I would still like to see a further poll with Lib Dems above 12%. Partly because I'm a Lib Dem...
If goods moving from mainland UK into NI just for consumption in NI, why should it pass Through a EU border? It shouldn’t. It’s potty solution the EU insisted on us. Goods for NI consumption should sail through under a green light. If it further crosses into EU, smuggling in other words, it’s in interest of EU to agree with us to harsh penalties on the smugglers, it just shows what a sham EU border policy always been if they won’t, UK always maintains proper borders.
To me it’s a perfectly workable solution. Tell me where I’m wrong.
Also any proper PM has no choice but to act, Northern Ireland is suffering post Covid and have a cost of living crisis, the EU insisting on checks in the Irish Sea is hampering the UK government from helping northern island - part of our country. So what would opposition parties do if in power tomorrow. You see they have to act?
An AI reaching consciousness would be hugely exciting and would present the human race with an entirely new challenge which is why we do need serious global level regulation around how to move forwards because we aren't far away from this happening. I don't find any of the current AIs particularly impressive on the sentience or consciousness side of things but it is undeniable that it will happen in my lifetime and it's exciting and worrying in equal parts.
It never does, so the trick is to guess which way it'll shift. Remember that back during the Noughties, Labour could win a majority on level pegging on votes.
The distribution of seats to other parties, the level of tactical voting, and regional/local factors all play in.
That’s why.
My considered opinion on the recent UFO flap - given some months ago on here - is that it is a psychological over reaction by elements of the US Establishment which is in a febrile post-plague, yielding-to-China-but-hating-it mindset. And that this has been weaponised by others
There simply is not enough hard evidence for alien intelligence. Yet. However anyone hoping to explain the Weirdness of the recent UFO story has to account for the intensely strange behaviour by senior US officials. I’ve tried to do that. Has anyone else?
Also, I’m just able to see the bigger picture better than most perhaps? Especially on here. Probably because I am not expert
Probably the last person you should ask for an opinion on AI and “sentience” is a computer geek
It’s like asking a car mechanic “should i take this car to Krakow with my new girlfriend”?
It’s outside his skill set. He’s good on sparkplugs. He knows fuck all about driving to krakow to seduce a lady
This is outside your skill set. I get it
And the boats don't even really exist now for six-seven months of the year when the Channel is rough. With Covid receding, do you really think that people will hang around for half a year.
I'll do a bet with you if you like.
I reckon that there will be a 50% or greater drop in the number of people arriving by boat in the next 12 months, but that overall numbers of people claiming asylum in the UK will actually rise.
£100.
And as for maintaining proper borders, just see the discussion of people smuggling earlier this afternoon.
Also, we did not try to brute-force all possible combinations - which is what takes the time. We assumed some text in the messages - something the Germans kindly helped us with. These pieces of text - sometimes phrases in weather reports, sometimes stuff like 'Heil Hitler' were a massive hint as to the final combination.
It also depends on the type of Enigma: there were several different variants through the war, including the naval enigma variants that were much harder to crack.
Enigma might never have been broken during the war if it had not been for sloppy use by the Germans (aside from code books being captured). Although using such thing securely is much more of a PITA, and it takes only one person to send (say) three spaces in a row for things to break.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVcsDDABEkM
Basically, DALL-E is a wonderful reversal of image classification systems.
Tactical voting increased further in 1997. UNS from 1992 (with tactical voting on the 1992 scale already factored in) would have seen Tory seats still north of 200.
UNS from 1997, with the now very high level of tactical voting, should have seen 181 Tory seats returned for Hague. In fact, by 2001, the degree by which the Tories had fallen behind UNS progressively for three elections meant that they had 82 seats fewer than they would have had if UNS had been followed from the 1987 election onwards.
The difference started to unwind in 2005 and further in 2010 and especially in 2015 (this latter being overwhelmingly the Lib Dem seat share collapsing - as most of those went Tory and had come from the Tories).
A Lib Dem revival and a return of tactical voting would both act to shift the Tory seat share down from UNS against the 2019 result.
1. Let’s keep it simple and
2. It feels properly wrong to bet and gain on suffering
So, let’s just make it “50% or greater drop in the number of people arriving by boat in the next 12 months”. (We need to set a commencement date)
And let’s make it £50 goes to a refugee charity of the winner’s choice? The loser can send the evidence of payment
Deal? (But we still need to frame the date)
Btw, I hope you’re right. I’d love to lose this as it means we have “solved” the boat problem, even if it is not truly solved. I just can’t see it happening
The sparse crowd, its the stupidity of putting day 4 and 5 on a week day.
But the enemy would likely have a modern computer too, so you’d instead be trying to brute force AES-256 with a supercomputer.
One thing to note is it shows changes since 8 June, and I'm not sure a huge amount has happened to move the needle since then.
Admittedly it's not as bad with things like DALL-E.
Avoid the hype.
And if you try to out cancer survivor me you're gonna lose.
On the other hand, there’s probably loads of people trying to wrangle the day off tomorrow at the moment, to go and queue up in the morning.
Deepminds have hoovered up several billion from Google without ever making any profit, so again they have some what of a motivation to drive hype now to justify daddy Google's huge investment.
Each to his own.
It’s not just cancer. It may be curing other conditions, such as arthritis that make life miserable for millions.