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The Tories edge up a touch in theTiverton and Honiton betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 20 in General
imageThe Tories edge up a touch in theTiverton and Honiton betting – politicalbetting.com

There’s been bit of a move upwards for the Tories in the Tiverton and Honiton by-election betting. The election takes place a week on Thursday and already many postal voters are reported to have cast their ballots.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,036
    First.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,892
    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what happens if Tether falls? Does the whole crypto market just break down? I'm not a domain expert, would be interested to hear from @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo on it.

    When Tether fails the whole crypto market implodes. The volume of BTC-Tether transacrions utterly dominates BTC-RealActualMoney transactions.

    Crypto is priced in Tethers, not USD.
    That doesn't sound like a risky proposition at all.
    In the last 24 hours 109 Billion Dollars worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin have been traded. By far the largest volumes of any non-stablecoin crypto currency. The next one down is XRP-Ripple at 2 billion).

    107 Billion Tether have been traded in that time period (plus 23 billion usdc and busd).

    There is very, very little real money in the system.
    I guess the question is how much real money is Tether backed by? What would happen if $100bn worth of BTC were traded to USDT and then cashed out tomorrow? I feel like that's where we're at and people who want to trade in their USDT for actual money will be stuffed pretty soon.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,653
    I'm on the Tories at 5.5

    Mainly so I get the price of a decent curry to make up for my deep disappointment if somehow Johnson scrambles over the line in T&H.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 13,169
    For the LDs to win, it would be the largest swing in by-election history,

    There’s a lack of buzz from OGC on this, and I suspect the LDs are finding it harder going than North Salop and C&A.

    Mind you I failed to predict either of those.

    If the LDs win it will be through a Tory voter strike.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,653
    edited June 13
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what happens if Tether falls? Does the whole crypto market just break down? I'm not a domain expert, would be interested to hear from @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo on it.

    When Tether fails the whole crypto market implodes. The volume of BTC-Tether transacrions utterly dominates BTC-RealActualMoney transactions.

    Crypto is priced in Tethers, not USD.
    That doesn't sound like a risky proposition at all.
    In the last 24 hours 109 Billion Dollars worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin have been traded. By far the largest volumes of any non-stablecoin crypto currency. The next one down is XRP-Ripple at 2 billion).

    107 Billion Tether have been traded in that time period (plus 23 billion usdc and busd).

    There is very, very little real money in the system.
    I guess the question is how much real money is Tether backed by? What would happen if $100bn worth of BTC were traded to USDT and then cashed out tomorrow? I feel like that's where we're at and people who want to trade in their USDT for actual money will be stuffed pretty soon.
    I really don't understand crypto at least not enough to risk any money, of which I have hardly any anyway.

    Am I correct though in thinking that the stable cryptos are pegged to the $?

    Is this the same as the way we were pegged to the German currency just before Black Wednesday?

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,732
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what happens if Tether falls? Does the whole crypto market just break down? I'm not a domain expert, would be interested to hear from @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo on it.

    When Tether fails the whole crypto market implodes. The volume of BTC-Tether transacrions utterly dominates BTC-RealActualMoney transactions.

    Crypto is priced in Tethers, not USD.
    That doesn't sound like a risky proposition at all.
    In the last 24 hours 109 Billion Dollars worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin have been traded. By far the largest volumes of any non-stablecoin crypto currency. The next one down is XRP-Ripple at 2 billion).

    107 Billion Tether have been traded in that time period (plus 23 billion usdc and busd).

    There is very, very little real money in the system.
    I guess the question is how much real money is Tether backed by? What would happen if $100bn worth of BTC were traded to USDT and then cashed out tomorrow? I feel like that's where we're at and people who want to trade in their USDT for actual money will be stuffed pretty soon.
    Interesting. Like our banking system - if everyone turned up and wanted their money we'd be f&&&&d.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,177
    What proportion of votes are postal these days?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,988
    The Tories seem to have gotten their campaign off the ground far quicker in Tiverton and Honiton than North Shropshire as even the LDs have admitted, in terms of leaflet delivery etc. With a better local candidate too

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/10/tories-face-tough-test-as-they-try-to-hang-on-to-tiverton-and-honiton-seat
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,307

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what happens if Tether falls? Does the whole crypto market just break down? I'm not a domain expert, would be interested to hear from @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo on it.

    When Tether fails the whole crypto market implodes. The volume of BTC-Tether transacrions utterly dominates BTC-RealActualMoney transactions.

    Crypto is priced in Tethers, not USD.
    That doesn't sound like a risky proposition at all.
    In the last 24 hours 109 Billion Dollars worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin have been traded. By far the largest volumes of any non-stablecoin crypto currency. The next one down is XRP-Ripple at 2 billion).

    107 Billion Tether have been traded in that time period (plus 23 billion usdc and busd).

    There is very, very little real money in the system.
    I guess the question is how much real money is Tether backed by? What would happen if $100bn worth of BTC were traded to USDT and then cashed out tomorrow? I feel like that's where we're at and people who want to trade in their USDT for actual money will be stuffed pretty soon.
    I really don't understand crypto at least not enough to risk any money, of which I have hardly any anyway.

    Am I correct though in thinking that the stable cryptos are pegged to the $?

    Is this the same as the way we were pegged to the German currency just before Black Wednesday?

    The volume and speed of exchange from crypto to real currency is where the game has long been played.

    If you can't get your money out....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,892
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what happens if Tether falls? Does the whole crypto market just break down? I'm not a domain expert, would be interested to hear from @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo on it.

    When Tether fails the whole crypto market implodes. The volume of BTC-Tether transacrions utterly dominates BTC-RealActualMoney transactions.

    Crypto is priced in Tethers, not USD.
    That doesn't sound like a risky proposition at all.
    In the last 24 hours 109 Billion Dollars worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin have been traded. By far the largest volumes of any non-stablecoin crypto currency. The next one down is XRP-Ripple at 2 billion).

    107 Billion Tether have been traded in that time period (plus 23 billion usdc and busd).

    There is very, very little real money in the system.
    I guess the question is how much real money is Tether backed by? What would happen if $100bn worth of BTC were traded to USDT and then cashed out tomorrow? I feel like that's where we're at and people who want to trade in their USDT for actual money will be stuffed pretty soon.
    Interesting. Like our banking system - if everyone turned up and wanted their money we'd be f&&&&d.
    Not necessarily, the BoE can simply print more money in extremis, it may dilute the value of the asset, yet people are still left holding something. In this scenario USDT is backed by nothing real as far as I can see and it would need continual buyers on one side to fund any sellers but if everyone sold how does that work? A free floating currency loses value until it finds a new level at which people are comfortable buying, USDT is supposed to be 1:1 with USD but how is that valuation maintained?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,578
    If Bitcoin goes, how am I supposed to buy drug off the dark web do my investments?
  • TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what happens if Tether falls? Does the whole crypto market just break down? I'm not a domain expert, would be interested to hear from @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo on it.

    When Tether fails the whole crypto market implodes. The volume of BTC-Tether transacrions utterly dominates BTC-RealActualMoney transactions.

    Crypto is priced in Tethers, not USD.
    That doesn't sound like a risky proposition at all.
    In the last 24 hours 109 Billion Dollars worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin have been traded. By far the largest volumes of any non-stablecoin crypto currency. The next one down is XRP-Ripple at 2 billion).

    107 Billion Tether have been traded in that time period (plus 23 billion usdc and busd).

    There is very, very little real money in the system.
    I guess the question is how much real money is Tether backed by? What would happen if $100bn worth of BTC were traded to USDT and then cashed out tomorrow? I feel like that's where we're at and people who want to trade in their USDT for actual money will be stuffed pretty soon.
    Interesting. Like our banking system - if everyone turned up and wanted their money we'd be f&&&&d.
    The difference is underpinning our banking system there are underlying assets, even if they're not liquid assets, so even when banks go pop, with a bit of mess and a lot of difficulty things can be ultimately mostly resolved.

    Underpinning crypto is a 🚀🚀🚀🚀 Number Goes Up 🚀🚀🚀🚀 mentality and once people lose faith, there's nothing behind the curtain. When each scam goes bust there's nothing left behind it.

    For all the talk of fiat and inflation by crypto enthusiasts, the simple reality is that crypto always has been the most inflated and fiat 'currency' there is. Trillions of dollars of 'assets' created out of nothing, with nothing behind it. Many poor sods have got into a lot of debt with this, or spent money they don't have due to "assets" they think they have.

    Crypto going pop could have quite a deflationary impact in some areas and countries as people find the money supply they thought they had, no longer exists.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,785
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what happens if Tether falls? Does the whole crypto market just break down? I'm not a domain expert, would be interested to hear from @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo on it.

    When Tether fails the whole crypto market implodes. The volume of BTC-Tether transacrions utterly dominates BTC-RealActualMoney transactions.

    Crypto is priced in Tethers, not USD.
    That doesn't sound like a risky proposition at all.
    In the last 24 hours 109 Billion Dollars worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin have been traded. By far the largest volumes of any non-stablecoin crypto currency. The next one down is XRP-Ripple at 2 billion).

    107 Billion Tether have been traded in that time period (plus 23 billion usdc and busd).

    There is very, very little real money in the system.
    I guess the question is how much real money is Tether backed by? What would happen if $100bn worth of BTC were traded to USDT and then cashed out tomorrow? I feel like that's where we're at and people who want to trade in their USDT for actual money will be stuffed pretty soon.
    The question is whether or not the dollar is "real money" when you can print as much of it as you like at will...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,939

    For the LDs to win, it would be the largest swing in by-election history,

    There’s a lack of buzz from OGC on this, and I suspect the LDs are finding it harder going than North Salop and C&A.

    Mind you I failed to predict either of those.

    If the LDs win it will be through a Tory voter strike.

    No, the LDs win it on a 24% swing, nowhere near the biggest ever, not even as big as Shropshire or Chesham.
    If turnout is about 50%, the Tories need about half of Parish's 35,000 to turn out for them to win. So i do agree its down to a voter strike or not.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,732
    edited June 13

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what happens if Tether falls? Does the whole crypto market just break down? I'm not a domain expert, would be interested to hear from @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo on it.

    When Tether fails the whole crypto market implodes. The volume of BTC-Tether transacrions utterly dominates BTC-RealActualMoney transactions.

    Crypto is priced in Tethers, not USD.
    That doesn't sound like a risky proposition at all.
    In the last 24 hours 109 Billion Dollars worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin have been traded. By far the largest volumes of any non-stablecoin crypto currency. The next one down is XRP-Ripple at 2 billion).

    107 Billion Tether have been traded in that time period (plus 23 billion usdc and busd).

    There is very, very little real money in the system.
    I guess the question is how much real money is Tether backed by? What would happen if $100bn worth of BTC were traded to USDT and then cashed out tomorrow? I feel like that's where we're at and people who want to trade in their USDT for actual money will be stuffed pretty soon.
    Interesting. Like our banking system - if everyone turned up and wanted their money we'd be f&&&&d.
    The difference is underpinning our banking system there are underlying assets, even if they're not liquid assets, so even when banks go pop, with a bit of mess and a lot of difficulty things can be ultimately mostly resolved.

    Underpinning crypto is a 🚀🚀🚀🚀 Number Goes Up 🚀🚀🚀🚀 mentality and once people lose faith, there's nothing behind the curtain. When each scam goes bust there's nothing left behind it.

    For all the talk of fiat and inflation by crypto enthusiasts, the simple reality is that crypto always has been the most inflated and fiat 'currency' there is. Trillions of dollars of 'assets' created out of nothing, with nothing behind it. Many poor sods have got into a lot of debt with this, or spent money they don't have due to "assets" they think they have.

    Crypto going pop could have quite a deflationary impact in some areas and countries as people find the money supply they thought they had, no longer exists.
    Yes I agree that the BoE would stand behind in principle and for most of the likely scenarious but with fractional reserve banking and at a 12.5% reserve ratio the public could theoretically demand 8x the available funds from the bank. Was my point.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 646
    darkage said:

    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    Saw a tesla mini-cab today in Edinburgh. Surely the economics don't work out on that?

    I would have thought the economics of that work out why better than diesel at the moment - higher upfront cost but way lower ongoing costs.
    Maybe someone who bought a Tesla, now reduced to driving a minicab to make ends meet? It could happen to the best of us.
    A non-trivial number of London minicab drivers have told me they were going for a Model 3 for their next car. This was before the fuel price rises recently.

    Apparently if you buy an electric vehicle via your business you can (could) get some serious discounts/tax rebates.
    I get a lot of taxi's. Seen a lot of Toyota hybrids that have done 250k+ miles. I can't see it working out the same way for EV's like Tesla's, but what do I know.

    Diesel must be completely finished looking at fuel prices.
    Diesel's still only 10p/l more than petrol and fuel prices have roughly doubled. I'm seriously considering buying a big old diesel barge from the golden era of economical diesels for my commute, as it will be cheaper to run than my small petrol car. Something like a 2010-2014 era Aventis or Passat does monster miles to the gallon and virtually won't deprecate in the current climate.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,892
    kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what happens if Tether falls? Does the whole crypto market just break down? I'm not a domain expert, would be interested to hear from @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo on it.

    When Tether fails the whole crypto market implodes. The volume of BTC-Tether transacrions utterly dominates BTC-RealActualMoney transactions.

    Crypto is priced in Tethers, not USD.
    That doesn't sound like a risky proposition at all.
    In the last 24 hours 109 Billion Dollars worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin have been traded. By far the largest volumes of any non-stablecoin crypto currency. The next one down is XRP-Ripple at 2 billion).

    107 Billion Tether have been traded in that time period (plus 23 billion usdc and busd).

    There is very, very little real money in the system.
    I guess the question is how much real money is Tether backed by? What would happen if $100bn worth of BTC were traded to USDT and then cashed out tomorrow? I feel like that's where we're at and people who want to trade in their USDT for actual money will be stuffed pretty soon.
    The question is whether or not the dollar is "real money" when you can print as much of it as you like at will...
    Yes it is because my dollars still buy things in shops.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,970
    kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what happens if Tether falls? Does the whole crypto market just break down? I'm not a domain expert, would be interested to hear from @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo on it.

    When Tether fails the whole crypto market implodes. The volume of BTC-Tether transacrions utterly dominates BTC-RealActualMoney transactions.

    Crypto is priced in Tethers, not USD.
    That doesn't sound like a risky proposition at all.
    In the last 24 hours 109 Billion Dollars worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin have been traded. By far the largest volumes of any non-stablecoin crypto currency. The next one down is XRP-Ripple at 2 billion).

    107 Billion Tether have been traded in that time period (plus 23 billion usdc and busd).

    There is very, very little real money in the system.
    I guess the question is how much real money is Tether backed by? What would happen if $100bn worth of BTC were traded to USDT and then cashed out tomorrow? I feel like that's where we're at and people who want to trade in their USDT for actual money will be stuffed pretty soon.
    The question is whether or not the dollar is "real money" when you can print as much of it as you like at will...
    Yes, the dollar is "real money". Hope this helps.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,625
    The Tories feel overdue a bit of a swing back. Not for any particular reason (and they don't deserve it with everything going on at the moment) but just because of the laws of physics and oscillation around the trend.

    They have managed expectations very well for T&H. I think they may well retain it, and that will be treated as "the moment Boris began his fightback".
  • eekeek Posts: 19,266
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what happens if Tether falls? Does the whole crypto market just break down? I'm not a domain expert, would be interested to hear from @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo on it.

    When Tether fails the whole crypto market implodes. The volume of BTC-Tether transacrions utterly dominates BTC-RealActualMoney transactions.

    Crypto is priced in Tethers, not USD.
    That doesn't sound like a risky proposition at all.
    In the last 24 hours 109 Billion Dollars worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin have been traded. By far the largest volumes of any non-stablecoin crypto currency. The next one down is XRP-Ripple at 2 billion).

    107 Billion Tether have been traded in that time period (plus 23 billion usdc and busd).

    There is very, very little real money in the system.
    I guess the question is how much real money is Tether backed by? What would happen if $100bn worth of BTC were traded to USDT and then cashed out tomorrow? I feel like that's where we're at and people who want to trade in their USDT for actual money will be stuffed pretty soon.
    Interesting. Like our banking system - if everyone turned up and wanted their money we'd be f&&&&d.
    Not necessarily, the BoE can simply print more money in extremis, it may dilute the value of the asset, yet people are still left holding something. In this scenario USDT is backed by nothing real as far as I can see and it would need continual buyers on one side to fund any sellers but if everyone sold how does that work? A free floating currency loses value until it finds a new level at which people are comfortable buying, USDT is supposed to be 1:1 with USD but how is that valuation maintained?
    Short answer - again as I posted earlier today it isn't.

    There are multiple reasons that show the USDT doesn't have anything like the real world assets you would expect it to have if there was a 1:1 relationship between USDT and USD...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,653
    MaxPB said:

    kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what happens if Tether falls? Does the whole crypto market just break down? I'm not a domain expert, would be interested to hear from @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo on it.

    When Tether fails the whole crypto market implodes. The volume of BTC-Tether transacrions utterly dominates BTC-RealActualMoney transactions.

    Crypto is priced in Tethers, not USD.
    That doesn't sound like a risky proposition at all.
    In the last 24 hours 109 Billion Dollars worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin have been traded. By far the largest volumes of any non-stablecoin crypto currency. The next one down is XRP-Ripple at 2 billion).

    107 Billion Tether have been traded in that time period (plus 23 billion usdc and busd).

    There is very, very little real money in the system.
    I guess the question is how much real money is Tether backed by? What would happen if $100bn worth of BTC were traded to USDT and then cashed out tomorrow? I feel like that's where we're at and people who want to trade in their USDT for actual money will be stuffed pretty soon.
    The question is whether or not the dollar is "real money" when you can print as much of it as you like at will...
    Yes it is because my dollars still buy things in shops.
    Surely, the definition of what money is basically a description of what a dollar or pound is?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 6,970
    TimS said:

    The Tories feel overdue a bit of a swing back. Not for any particular reason (and they don't deserve it with everything going on at the moment) but just because of the laws of physics and oscillation around the trend.

    They have managed expectations very well for T&H. I think they may well retain it, and that will be treated as "the moment Boris began his fightback".

    Laws of physics?
    Oscillation around the trend?
    Wut?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,754
    TimS said:

    The Tories feel overdue a bit of a swing back. Not for any particular reason (and they don't deserve it with everything going on at the moment) but just because of the laws of physics and oscillation around the trend.

    They have managed expectations very well for T&H. I think they may well retain it, and that will be treated as "the moment Boris began his fightback".

    God forbid!
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,785
    MaxPB said:

    kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what happens if Tether falls? Does the whole crypto market just break down? I'm not a domain expert, would be interested to hear from @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo on it.

    When Tether fails the whole crypto market implodes. The volume of BTC-Tether transacrions utterly dominates BTC-RealActualMoney transactions.

    Crypto is priced in Tethers, not USD.
    That doesn't sound like a risky proposition at all.
    In the last 24 hours 109 Billion Dollars worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin have been traded. By far the largest volumes of any non-stablecoin crypto currency. The next one down is XRP-Ripple at 2 billion).

    107 Billion Tether have been traded in that time period (plus 23 billion usdc and busd).

    There is very, very little real money in the system.
    I guess the question is how much real money is Tether backed by? What would happen if $100bn worth of BTC were traded to USDT and then cashed out tomorrow? I feel like that's where we're at and people who want to trade in their USDT for actual money will be stuffed pretty soon.
    The question is whether or not the dollar is "real money" when you can print as much of it as you like at will...
    Yes it is because my dollars still buy things in shops.
    Until hyperinflation kicks in.

    A fascinating look at what happened after the gold standard was abandoned in 1971...

    https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,892
    Also for all those people suggesting that Will Smith was done in Hollywood, WB are set to announce his return to action in a sequel to I Am Legend. That didn't take very long.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,653
    U.S. stocks opened in bear market territory on Monday, a 20 percent decline from their peak in January, a sign of growing pessimism about the outlook for the economy.

    NY Times blog
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,892
    kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what happens if Tether falls? Does the whole crypto market just break down? I'm not a domain expert, would be interested to hear from @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo on it.

    When Tether fails the whole crypto market implodes. The volume of BTC-Tether transacrions utterly dominates BTC-RealActualMoney transactions.

    Crypto is priced in Tethers, not USD.
    That doesn't sound like a risky proposition at all.
    In the last 24 hours 109 Billion Dollars worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin have been traded. By far the largest volumes of any non-stablecoin crypto currency. The next one down is XRP-Ripple at 2 billion).

    107 Billion Tether have been traded in that time period (plus 23 billion usdc and busd).

    There is very, very little real money in the system.
    I guess the question is how much real money is Tether backed by? What would happen if $100bn worth of BTC were traded to USDT and then cashed out tomorrow? I feel like that's where we're at and people who want to trade in their USDT for actual money will be stuffed pretty soon.
    The question is whether or not the dollar is "real money" when you can print as much of it as you like at will...
    Yes it is because my dollars still buy things in shops.
    Until hyperinflation kicks in.

    A fascinating look at what happened after the gold standard was abandoned in 1971...

    https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

    Well no because my dollars still buy stuff. The value of a dollar today is lower than it was then but it still buys stuff.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,634
    .
    MaxPB said:

    kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what happens if Tether falls? Does the whole crypto market just break down? I'm not a domain expert, would be interested to hear from @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo on it.

    When Tether fails the whole crypto market implodes. The volume of BTC-Tether transacrions utterly dominates BTC-RealActualMoney transactions.

    Crypto is priced in Tethers, not USD.
    That doesn't sound like a risky proposition at all.
    In the last 24 hours 109 Billion Dollars worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin have been traded. By far the largest volumes of any non-stablecoin crypto currency. The next one down is XRP-Ripple at 2 billion).

    107 Billion Tether have been traded in that time period (plus 23 billion usdc and busd).

    There is very, very little real money in the system.
    I guess the question is how much real money is Tether backed by? What would happen if $100bn worth of BTC were traded to USDT and then cashed out tomorrow? I feel like that's where we're at and people who want to trade in their USDT for actual money will be stuffed pretty soon.
    The question is whether or not the dollar is "real money" when you can print as much of it as you like at will...
    Yes it is because my dollars still buy things in shops.
    What about the pound, though ... ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,383
    CatMan said:

    If Bitcoin goes, how am I supposed to buy drug off the dark web do my investments?

    Bitcoin and Monero will still exist, and will still be useable on Silk Road (or whatever the kids use these days). It's just that Bitcoin will be $1,500 and Monero $50.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,383
    MaxPB said:

    Also for all those people suggesting that Will Smith was done in Hollywood, WB are set to announce his return to action in a sequel to I Am Legend. That didn't take very long.

    I am Legend II: The Legend of the Slap
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,634
    Kyiv Region Police Chief Andriy Nebitov said authorities uncovered another mass grave near former Russian positions in Kyiv region. "7 civilians were tortured by the Russians and brutally executed with bullets in the head," he said. Some had hands tied, knees shot.
    https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1536358803955863552
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 625
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also for all those people suggesting that Will Smith was done in Hollywood, WB are set to announce his return to action in a sequel to I Am Legend. That didn't take very long.

    I am Legend II: The Legend of the Slap
    Armend.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,503
    Farooq said:

    TimS said:

    The Tories feel overdue a bit of a swing back. Not for any particular reason (and they don't deserve it with everything going on at the moment) but just because of the laws of physics and oscillation around the trend.

    They have managed expectations very well for T&H. I think they may well retain it, and that will be treated as "the moment Boris began his fightback".

    Laws of physics?
    Oscillation around the trend?
    Wut?
    Galtonian reversion to the mean is perhaps the mot juste here.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,082
    Pat McFadden on "Boris Johnson's Backlog Britain": striking short speech in Commons just now https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1536358561604943881/photo/1

    "They had a chance to install new leadership that would have given us some hope of a sense of grip on all this, but what did they do? ...

    "They decided that the best person to turn the economy round, to sort out the chaos and backlogs, and to bring the qualities of focus, attention to detail and sustained delivery to these matters was the current PM"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,307
    rcs1000 said:

    CatMan said:

    If Bitcoin goes, how am I supposed to buy drug off the dark web do my investments?

    Bitcoin and Monero will still exist, and will still be useable on Silk Road (or whatever the kids use these days). It's just that Bitcoin will be $1,500 and Monero $50.
    I like the idea that some crypto types will be explaining to Los Zetas that they have lost their money.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,763
    Scott_xP said:

    Pat McFadden on "Boris Johnson's Backlog Britain": striking short speech in Commons just now https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1536358561604943881/photo/1

    "They had a chance to install new leadership that would have given us some hope of a sense of grip on all this, but what did they do? ...

    "They decided that the best person to turn the economy round, to sort out the chaos and backlogs, and to bring the qualities of focus, attention to detail and sustained delivery to these matters was the current PM"

    A Labour MP criticises the Government, omg whatever next
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,975
    MaxPB said:

    Also for all those people suggesting that Will Smith was done in Hollywood, WB are set to announce his return to action in a sequel to I Am Legend. That didn't take very long.

    People typically over react massively to these things. I note that Michael Vaughn has served his time from TMS too.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,036
    edited June 13

    MaxPB said:

    Also for all those people suggesting that Will Smith was done in Hollywood, WB are set to announce his return to action in a sequel to I Am Legend. That didn't take very long.

    People typically over react massively to these things. I note that Michael Vaughn has served his time from TMS too.
    Yes, I walked past Michael Vaughan at the Lord's Test and thought it was interesting that he was back in favour.

    Twitter is awash with rumours about a certain footballer. If those rumours are true, it'll be interesting to see what happens with his career.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 889
    rcs1000 said:

    It is worth noting that a collapse in crypto prices is excellent news for the world economy, as crypto mining uses an awful lot of energy.

    It is also excellent news for anyone who didn't want to pay ridiculous amounts for PC graphics cards.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065
    edited June 13
    Potts gets Nicholls, 115/3.

    Need maybe another 4 wickets tonight to have a decent chance of cleaing up the tail quickly enough tomorrow morning to have a chaseable target?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,384
    rcs1000 said:

    It is worth noting that a collapse in crypto prices is excellent news for the world economy, as crypto mining uses an awful lot of energy.

    Yes, Etherium mining is well down from peak saving tonnes upon tonnes of CO2 production.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,578
    Winviz is a load of bollocks
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,383
    kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what happens if Tether falls? Does the whole crypto market just break down? I'm not a domain expert, would be interested to hear from @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo on it.

    When Tether fails the whole crypto market implodes. The volume of BTC-Tether transacrions utterly dominates BTC-RealActualMoney transactions.

    Crypto is priced in Tethers, not USD.
    That doesn't sound like a risky proposition at all.
    In the last 24 hours 109 Billion Dollars worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin have been traded. By far the largest volumes of any non-stablecoin crypto currency. The next one down is XRP-Ripple at 2 billion).

    107 Billion Tether have been traded in that time period (plus 23 billion usdc and busd).

    There is very, very little real money in the system.
    I guess the question is how much real money is Tether backed by? What would happen if $100bn worth of BTC were traded to USDT and then cashed out tomorrow? I feel like that's where we're at and people who want to trade in their USDT for actual money will be stuffed pretty soon.
    The question is whether or not the dollar is "real money" when you can print as much of it as you like at will...
    Yes it is because my dollars still buy things in shops.
    Until hyperinflation kicks in.

    A fascinating look at what happened after the gold standard was abandoned in 1971...

    https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

    I have a great deal of sympathy with the idea that the end of Bretton Woods resulted in far greater imbalances in the world economy (because people could run unbalanced economies for far longer), and that this in turn means that when crises come, they tend to be bigger and harder and worse.

    With that said, Bretton Woods and the Gold Standard were not panaceas either. They inevitably meant that - because of the necessity of not allowing the economy to run more than the most modest of deficits in any particular year - governments implemented extensive and illiberal controls over economies. They also encouraged mercantilism: running a current account deficit was so painful, that countries would often engage in "beggar thy neighbour" policies.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,383
    AlistairM said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It is worth noting that a collapse in crypto prices is excellent news for the world economy, as crypto mining uses an awful lot of energy.

    It is also excellent news for anyone who didn't want to pay ridiculous amounts for PC graphics cards.
    If only there were some decent games out there right now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,383
    CatMan said:

    Winviz is a load of bollocks

    Yes: it should be draw, then NZ, then England.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,177
    On topic, has anyone heard from Marquee Mark on the subject recently? He usually has a good idea of what's what among the Tories in the Devon and close-by areas.
  • kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what happens if Tether falls? Does the whole crypto market just break down? I'm not a domain expert, would be interested to hear from @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo on it.

    When Tether fails the whole crypto market implodes. The volume of BTC-Tether transacrions utterly dominates BTC-RealActualMoney transactions.

    Crypto is priced in Tethers, not USD.
    That doesn't sound like a risky proposition at all.
    In the last 24 hours 109 Billion Dollars worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin have been traded. By far the largest volumes of any non-stablecoin crypto currency. The next one down is XRP-Ripple at 2 billion).

    107 Billion Tether have been traded in that time period (plus 23 billion usdc and busd).

    There is very, very little real money in the system.
    I guess the question is how much real money is Tether backed by? What would happen if $100bn worth of BTC were traded to USDT and then cashed out tomorrow? I feel like that's where we're at and people who want to trade in their USDT for actual money will be stuffed pretty soon.
    The question is whether or not the dollar is "real money" when you can print as much of it as you like at will...
    Yes it is because my dollars still buy things in shops.
    Until hyperinflation kicks in.

    A fascinating look at what happened after the gold standard was abandoned in 1971...

    https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

    We have a working alternative to fiat currencies if you want to hedge against inflation, its called gold.

    Crypto currencies are the Pyrite answer to fiat. If you're worried about money being printed, did you ever stop to think where the trillions of dollars worth of crypto 'assets' came from? BTC, Doge, Eth, Celsius, Luna, USDT, USDC and the plethora of other bollocks of crypto that exists, where have they come from apart from being "printed"? Nobody dug in the ground and got a vein of Etherium.

    Gold has a value, because its valued physically and is physically required for industry and for jewellery and is in limited supply so you know people will need gold in the future which makes it valuable.

    Fiat currencies have a value, because they are required to pay the taxes of the countries behind those currencies, so the citizens of those countries need to acquire those currencies in order to pay their taxes, meaning that you know in the future you can exchange dollars for the goods and labor [sic] of Americans.

    Crypto assets are every bit as fiat as fiat currencies, but they have nothing of value behind them, except the expectation that some other mug will buy it off you next time thinking "number goes up" too.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,047
    Taormina is a shithole
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,945

    On topic, has anyone heard from Marquee Mark on the subject recently? He usually has a good idea of what's what among the Tories in the Devon and close-by areas.

    Was bullish on the Tories early. But I think he said he's refusing to help after they kept PM in situ.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,591

    Scott_xP said:

    Pat McFadden on "Boris Johnson's Backlog Britain": striking short speech in Commons just now https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1536358561604943881/photo/1

    "They had a chance to install new leadership that would have given us some hope of a sense of grip on all this, but what did they do? ...

    "They decided that the best person to turn the economy round, to sort out the chaos and backlogs, and to bring the qualities of focus, attention to detail and sustained delivery to these matters was the current PM"

    A Labour MP criticises the Government, omg whatever next
    Does your craven behaviour ever embarrass you?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,177
    dixiedean said:

    On topic, has anyone heard from Marquee Mark on the subject recently? He usually has a good idea of what's what among the Tories in the Devon and close-by areas.

    Was bullish on the Tories early. But I think he said he's refusing to help after they kept PM in situ.
    Hmm. If Mr M's standing back I think he may not be alone! Doesn't seem good, from a Tory perspective.
    On the other hand, since I'm not a Tory......
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,625
    Farooq said:

    TimS said:

    The Tories feel overdue a bit of a swing back. Not for any particular reason (and they don't deserve it with everything going on at the moment) but just because of the laws of physics and oscillation around the trend.

    They have managed expectations very well for T&H. I think they may well retain it, and that will be treated as "the moment Boris began his fightback".

    Laws of physics?
    Oscillation around the trend?
    Wut?
    Well established quack electoral science. What goes up must come down, reversion to the mean etc.
    Don't you feel it in your bones too? They're going to have a relatively good patch. For no apparent reason other than possibly a dying down of the public outrage levels over partygate and a few people who had pretended to be minded to switch actually finding an excuse to come back home to the conservatives.

    They're like the Russians. No matter the setback, they just keep blasting away with unguided artillery until the political landscape is a shell-pocked wasteland and everyone decides "they're all as bad as each other so I might as well do as I'm told and vote Tory".
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,625
    Applicant said:

    Potts gets Nicholls, 115/3.

    Need maybe another 4 wickets tonight to have a decent chance of cleaing up the tail quickly enough tomorrow morning to have a chaseable target?

    So far on target for that 250 run lead just ahead of lunch as per this morning's prediction.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    On Topic. Your ambulance waiting times dreadful and getting worse, your burglary unsolved in crime epidemic, no money left for promised school refurb - excellent. I would have made it better by adding a bit on Tory waste. When you are talking about all the different ways the Tories have wasted billions so have to tax us and cut projects and investment as well, they kindly set up so many options for opposition to choose from.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,939
    edited June 13
    TimS said:

    Applicant said:

    Potts gets Nicholls, 115/3.

    Need maybe another 4 wickets tonight to have a decent chance of cleaing up the tail quickly enough tomorrow morning to have a chaseable target?

    So far on target for that 250 run lead just ahead of lunch as per this morning's prediction.
    Should be 300 by lunch, they ought to get another 100 tonight if wickets dont tumble. 300 off 60.
    Thats if they are playing to win
  • Will Young has to Leave Right Now after getting ran out.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,036
    edited June 13
    Brilliant fielding by Pope and Stokes.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,763
    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Pat McFadden on "Boris Johnson's Backlog Britain": striking short speech in Commons just now https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1536358561604943881/photo/1

    "They had a chance to install new leadership that would have given us some hope of a sense of grip on all this, but what did they do? ...

    "They decided that the best person to turn the economy round, to sort out the chaos and backlogs, and to bring the qualities of focus, attention to detail and sustained delivery to these matters was the current PM"

    A Labour MP criticises the Government, omg whatever next
    Does your craven behaviour ever embarrass you?
    Everyday obviously
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,939
    4 down though, nz will surely close up shop now
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065
    tlg86 said:

    Brilliant fielding by Pope and Stokes.

    Here comes the critical partnership.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,625

    TimS said:

    Applicant said:

    Potts gets Nicholls, 115/3.

    Need maybe another 4 wickets tonight to have a decent chance of cleaing up the tail quickly enough tomorrow morning to have a chaseable target?

    So far on target for that 250 run lead just ahead of lunch as per this morning's prediction.
    Should be 300 by lunch, they ought to get another 100 tonight if wickets dont tumble. 300 off 60.
    Thats if they are playing to win
    Shaky hour or so now with few runs, perhaps a nervous start tomorrow morning and then a bit more hitting. Perhaps the 250 lead happens earlier if they keep going for it and are all out by mid morning tomorrow.
  • Wes Streeting is clearly a good alternative, also got Reeves.

    Who do the Tories have? And what is their route to a majority?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,939
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Applicant said:

    Potts gets Nicholls, 115/3.

    Need maybe another 4 wickets tonight to have a decent chance of cleaing up the tail quickly enough tomorrow morning to have a chaseable target?

    So far on target for that 250 run lead just ahead of lunch as per this morning's prediction.
    Should be 300 by lunch, they ought to get another 100 tonight if wickets dont tumble. 300 off 60.
    Thats if they are playing to win
    Shaky hour or so now with few runs, perhaps a nervous start tomorrow morning and then a bit more hitting. Perhaps the 250 lead happens earlier if they keep going for it and are all out by mid morning tomorrow.
    They wont risk 250 in 2 sessions. 280 to 300 maybe
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,939
    Trudeau has the 'rona
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,445
    EU response to the UK moves on the protocol:

    Sources say the EU will adopt a carrot and stick approach, with the unfreezing of legal action being accompanied by the publication of a “model for the flexible implementation of the protocol based on durable solutions.”

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1536364852691746818
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,503
    edited June 13

    Wes Streeting is clearly a good alternative, also got Reeves.

    Who do the Tories have? And what is their route to a majority?

    ...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,827

    Will Young has to Leave Right Now after getting ran out.

    Well, Anything is possible.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,939
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Applicant said:

    Potts gets Nicholls, 115/3.

    Need maybe another 4 wickets tonight to have a decent chance of cleaing up the tail quickly enough tomorrow morning to have a chaseable target?

    So far on target for that 250 run lead just ahead of lunch as per this morning's prediction.
    Should be 300 by lunch, they ought to get another 100 tonight if wickets dont tumble. 300 off 60.
    Thats if they are playing to win
    Shaky hour or so now with few runs, perhaps a nervous start tomorrow morning and then a bit more hitting. Perhaps the 250 lead happens earlier if they keep going for it and are all out by mid morning tomorrow.
    Light also becoming an issue
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,445

    Trudeau has the 'rona

    That's the second time this year.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,827
    It would be good for the next game if they could get one of these 2 out for less than 50, just to prove it is possible.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065
    DavidL said:

    Will Young has to Leave Right Now after getting ran out.

    Well, Anything is possible.
    He's probably Crying on the Bathroom Floor in the pavillion.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,383

    kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    kyf_100 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what happens if Tether falls? Does the whole crypto market just break down? I'm not a domain expert, would be interested to hear from @rcs1000 and @edmundintokyo on it.

    When Tether fails the whole crypto market implodes. The volume of BTC-Tether transacrions utterly dominates BTC-RealActualMoney transactions.

    Crypto is priced in Tethers, not USD.
    That doesn't sound like a risky proposition at all.
    In the last 24 hours 109 Billion Dollars worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin have been traded. By far the largest volumes of any non-stablecoin crypto currency. The next one down is XRP-Ripple at 2 billion).

    107 Billion Tether have been traded in that time period (plus 23 billion usdc and busd).

    There is very, very little real money in the system.
    I guess the question is how much real money is Tether backed by? What would happen if $100bn worth of BTC were traded to USDT and then cashed out tomorrow? I feel like that's where we're at and people who want to trade in their USDT for actual money will be stuffed pretty soon.
    The question is whether or not the dollar is "real money" when you can print as much of it as you like at will...
    Yes it is because my dollars still buy things in shops.
    Until hyperinflation kicks in.

    A fascinating look at what happened after the gold standard was abandoned in 1971...

    https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

    We have a working alternative to fiat currencies if you want to hedge against inflation, its called gold.

    Crypto currencies are the Pyrite answer to fiat. If you're worried about money being printed, did you ever stop to think where the trillions of dollars worth of crypto 'assets' came from? BTC, Doge, Eth, Celsius, Luna, USDT, USDC and the plethora of other bollocks of crypto that exists, where have they come from apart from being "printed"? Nobody dug in the ground and got a vein of Etherium.

    Gold has a value, because its valued physically and is physically required for industry and for jewellery and is in limited supply so you know people will need gold in the future which makes it valuable.

    Fiat currencies have a value, because they are required to pay the taxes of the countries behind those currencies, so the citizens of those countries need to acquire those currencies in order to pay their taxes, meaning that you know in the future you can exchange dollars for the goods and labor [sic] of Americans.

    Crypto assets are every bit as fiat as fiat currencies, but they have nothing of value behind them, except the expectation that some other mug will buy it off you next time thinking "number goes up" too.
    There's an unlimited amount of crypto in aggregate, but a finite amount of each individual crypto. There is also utility: some people want a way to transfer assets across borders or between people electronically and pseudonymously.

    The way I look at this is to ask: does this coin have any additional utility over Bitcoin? - to which the answer is that Monero (privacy) and Ethereum (smart contracts) do, and everything else does not.

    The price of every other cryptocurrency (Ripple, Bitcoin Gold, etc.) is going to zero.

    And the price of what remains is determined by how much underlying currency is required to facilitate anonymous payments (and smart contracts in the case of ethereum). And I'd reckon it's probably somewhere in the $20-30bn range right now. So that means the market cap of BTC should probably be $15bn, Monero $2bn and Ethereum $6bn.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,383

    Will Young has to Leave Right Now after getting ran out.

    I'm embarrassed to say that I got that.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 2,939

    Trudeau has the 'rona

    That's the second time this year.
    Apparently so. Blackface variant.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 148
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61789982

    "Appeal court judges have refused to stop the government's first flight taking asylum seekers to Rwanda on Tuesday."
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,036
    Did they just announce free entry to Trent bridge tomorrow? If I didn’t have a lot on at work, I’d make the effort to go up there.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,806
    R&W due in 12 mins

    I am going for Lab lead of 3% from 8% last Thursday
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,397

    Wes Streeting is clearly a good alternative, also got Reeves.

    Who do the Tories have? And what is their route to a majority?

    The Tories have the grey vote in the bag. It's a powerful advantage in a GE, and may well be enough.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    This Investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards into Starmer’s conduct is getting dirtier and murkier by the hour. First he said it was just late declarations, due to an oversight, these now famous “administrative errors” by his office, that don’t you just know always seem to lead to Police Investigations or Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards investigations. And now we learn it’s not the lateness he is being investigated for, that spin or lies put out by his office - but the suspicious nature of the things he is claiming for. A thousand pound each for two football matches? Is he really finding 5 hours a week to work on a book, to justify the years salary for a nurse he has already received for this work?

    It’s quite possible he could get ticked off and not exonerated as he hopes, from both Investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards and by the Police is it not? if not a commons suspension or FPN, still a ticking off for not having done the right thing in both instances.

    And How quickly will the Investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards conclude, could both these ticking offs for wrong doing, drop the same week in early July?

    Could Starmer even survive a vote of no confidence after that? It would only need a hundred MPs against him? and there’s a big voting block of Corbynites even before a few more disgruntled MPs in the fact Labour have zero cut through so preferring someone else?

    Why is this important to me? Because I pride myself correctly guessing the next poll from each firm, and have boldly stated no Tory Lead in June or July, on basis I couldn’t see the Tory % increasing, the one 36 we called a rogue poll is only time Tory have managed above 34 since Mid May. Starmer could mess up that prediction up for me. There could be greens on 10 or 11 libdems on 15 at Labours expense pushing Labour below Tories, if Starmer and his front bench can’t cut out these gaffs and start making some polling breakthrough soon. 😡
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    edited June 13

    R&W due in 12 mins

    I am going for Lab lead of 3% from 8% last Thursday

    Smart call from you today, the Monday one for some reason is always tighter. lead was just 4 last week. 37 plays 34 today is very possible. I’ll go with a 38 plays 34 today. A 39 for Labour would not surprise me, 40 would. 35 or more would surprise me for Tories.

    Do they do Monday and Thursday polls different then? Trialling two different ways each week?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,988
    pigeon said:

    Wes Streeting is clearly a good alternative, also got Reeves.

    Who do the Tories have? And what is their route to a majority?

    The Tories have the grey vote in the bag. It's a powerful advantage in a GE, and may well be enough.
    The Tories need to win over 45s for another majority. If they only win over 50s that might be enough for a hung parliament but probably not enough to keep them in government. If they only win over 65s then Labour will be in government with a majority
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,653

    This Investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards into Starmer’s conduct is getting dirtier and murkier by the hour. First he said it was just late declarations, due to an oversight, these now famous “administrative errors” by his office, that don’t you just know always seem to lead to Police Investigations or Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards investigations. And now we learn it’s not the lateness he is being investigated for, that spin or lies put out by his office - but the suspicious nature of the things he is claiming for. A thousand pound each for two football matches? Is he really finding 5 hours a week to work on a book, to justify the years salary for a nurse he has already received for this work?

    It’s quite possible he could get ticked off and not exonerated as he hopes, from both Investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards and by the Police is it not? if not a commons suspension or FPN, still a ticking off for not having done the right thing in both instances.

    And How quickly will the Investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards conclude, could both these ticking offs for wrong doing, drop the same week in early July?

    Could Starmer even survive a vote of no confidence after that? It would only need a hundred MPs against him? and there’s a big voting block of Corbynites even before a few more disgruntled MPs in the fact Labour have zero cut through so preferring someone else?

    Why is this important to me? Because I pride myself correctly guessing the next poll from each firm, and have boldly stated no Tory Lead in June or July, on basis I couldn’t see the Tory % increasing, the one 36 we called a rogue poll is only time Tory have managed above 34 since Mid May. Starmer could mess up that prediction up for me. There could be greens on 10 or 11 libdems on 15 at Labours expense pushing Labour below Tories, if Starmer and his front bench can’t cut out these gaffs and start making some polling breakthrough soon. 😡

    He's definitely writing a book.

    Which is frankly ridiculous as he needs to be spending 24/7 trying to get a grip of Labour's actual message. Leave the policy books to the wonks.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,500
    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61789982

    "Appeal court judges have refused to stop the government's first flight taking asylum seekers to Rwanda on Tuesday."

    Is it possible that the government never intended this to go ahead - implementation will be patchy, embarrassing and an epic fail at best - and assumed the courts would stop it so that they could blame the treacherous 'enemies of the people' judiciary?

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,177

    This Investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards into Starmer’s conduct is getting dirtier and murkier by the hour. First he said it was just late declarations, due to an oversight, these now famous “administrative errors” by his office, that don’t you just know always seem to lead to Police Investigations or Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards investigations. And now we learn it’s not the lateness he is being investigated for, that spin or lies put out by his office - but the suspicious nature of the things he is claiming for. A thousand pound each for two football matches? Is he really finding 5 hours a week to work on a book, to justify the years salary for a nurse he has already received for this work?

    It’s quite possible he could get ticked off and not exonerated as he hopes, from both Investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards and by the Police is it not? if not a commons suspension or FPN, still a ticking off for not having done the right thing in both instances.

    And How quickly will the Investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards conclude, could both these ticking offs for wrong doing, drop the same week in early July?

    Could Starmer even survive a vote of no confidence after that? It would only need a hundred MPs against him? and there’s a big voting block of Corbynites even before a few more disgruntled MPs in the fact Labour have zero cut through so preferring someone else?

    Why is this important to me? Because I pride myself correctly guessing the next poll from each firm, and have boldly stated no Tory Lead in June or July, on basis I couldn’t see the Tory % increasing, the one 36 we called a rogue poll is only time Tory have managed above 34 since Mid May. Starmer could mess up that prediction up for me. There could be greens on 10 or 11 libdems on 15 at Labours expense pushing Labour below Tories, if Starmer and his front bench can’t cut out these gaffs and start making some polling breakthrough soon. 😡

    He's definitely writing a book.

    Which is frankly ridiculous as he needs to be spending 24/7 trying to get a grip of Labour's actual message. Leave the policy books to the wonks.

    He ought to be getting a great deal more of a grip than he appears to be getting, certainly.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 42,827

    This Investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards into Starmer’s conduct is getting dirtier and murkier by the hour. First he said it was just late declarations, due to an oversight, these now famous “administrative errors” by his office, that don’t you just know always seem to lead to Police Investigations or Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards investigations. And now we learn it’s not the lateness he is being investigated for, that spin or lies put out by his office - but the suspicious nature of the things he is claiming for. A thousand pound each for two football matches? Is he really finding 5 hours a week to work on a book, to justify the years salary for a nurse he has already received for this work?

    It’s quite possible he could get ticked off and not exonerated as he hopes, from both Investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards and by the Police is it not? if not a commons suspension or FPN, still a ticking off for not having done the right thing in both instances.

    And How quickly will the Investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards conclude, could both these ticking offs for wrong doing, drop the same week in early July?

    Could Starmer even survive a vote of no confidence after that? It would only need a hundred MPs against him? and there’s a big voting block of Corbynites even before a few more disgruntled MPs in the fact Labour have zero cut through so preferring someone else?

    Why is this important to me? Because I pride myself correctly guessing the next poll from each firm, and have boldly stated no Tory Lead in June or July, on basis I couldn’t see the Tory % increasing, the one 36 we called a rogue poll is only time Tory have managed above 34 since Mid May. Starmer could mess up that prediction up for me. There could be greens on 10 or 11 libdems on 15 at Labours expense pushing Labour below Tories, if Starmer and his front bench can’t cut out these gaffs and start making some polling breakthrough soon. 😡

    I thought that the 2 payments for his book amounted to less than £500 in total, which made me feel marginally better about the returns on my book 20 years ago. You don't write legal text books to get rich..
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,653
    algarkirk said:

    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61789982

    "Appeal court judges have refused to stop the government's first flight taking asylum seekers to Rwanda on Tuesday."

    Is it possible that the government never intended this to go ahead - implementation will be patchy, embarrassing and an epic fail at best - and assumed the courts would stop it so that they could blame the treacherous 'enemies of the people' judiciary?

    They don't care what actually happens as long as they see focus groups using the word 'Rwanda' and 'good idea'/'worth a go'/'what else can we do'/'at least they are trying something' etc.

    The attack on Charles was just about getting the word 'Rwanda' all over the front pages yet again.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,625

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Applicant said:

    Potts gets Nicholls, 115/3.

    Need maybe another 4 wickets tonight to have a decent chance of cleaing up the tail quickly enough tomorrow morning to have a chaseable target?

    So far on target for that 250 run lead just ahead of lunch as per this morning's prediction.
    Should be 300 by lunch, they ought to get another 100 tonight if wickets dont tumble. 300 off 60.
    Thats if they are playing to win
    Shaky hour or so now with few runs, perhaps a nervous start tomorrow morning and then a bit more hitting. Perhaps the 250 lead happens earlier if they keep going for it and are all out by mid morning tomorrow.
    Light also becoming an issue
    The cumulus infill that's plagued a lot of inland England today may well melt away over the next hour or two so light might improve. Although it is thickest at the moment in the East Midlands. Clearing up rapidly in London now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 50,653

    This Investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards into Starmer’s conduct is getting dirtier and murkier by the hour. First he said it was just late declarations, due to an oversight, these now famous “administrative errors” by his office, that don’t you just know always seem to lead to Police Investigations or Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards investigations. And now we learn it’s not the lateness he is being investigated for, that spin or lies put out by his office - but the suspicious nature of the things he is claiming for. A thousand pound each for two football matches? Is he really finding 5 hours a week to work on a book, to justify the years salary for a nurse he has already received for this work?

    It’s quite possible he could get ticked off and not exonerated as he hopes, from both Investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards and by the Police is it not? if not a commons suspension or FPN, still a ticking off for not having done the right thing in both instances.

    And How quickly will the Investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards conclude, could both these ticking offs for wrong doing, drop the same week in early July?

    Could Starmer even survive a vote of no confidence after that? It would only need a hundred MPs against him? and there’s a big voting block of Corbynites even before a few more disgruntled MPs in the fact Labour have zero cut through so preferring someone else?

    Why is this important to me? Because I pride myself correctly guessing the next poll from each firm, and have boldly stated no Tory Lead in June or July, on basis I couldn’t see the Tory % increasing, the one 36 we called a rogue poll is only time Tory have managed above 34 since Mid May. Starmer could mess up that prediction up for me. There could be greens on 10 or 11 libdems on 15 at Labours expense pushing Labour below Tories, if Starmer and his front bench can’t cut out these gaffs and start making some polling breakthrough soon. 😡

    He's definitely writing a book.

    Which is frankly ridiculous as he needs to be spending 24/7 trying to get a grip of Labour's actual message. Leave the policy books to the wonks.

    He ought to be getting a great deal more of a grip than he appears to be getting, certainly.
    We are heading into a GE where the general view is going to be 'none of you' unless Labour pull themselves into looking like a government in waiting.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,967

    R&W due in 12 mins

    I am going for Lab lead of 3% from 8% last Thursday

    Big critique of Starmer in the Observer yesterday. I do hope he gets his FPN.

    And your boy Bozza has been smashing it out of the park over the last week...but then the economy?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,065
    tlg86 said:

    Did they just announce free entry to Trent bridge tomorrow? If I didn’t have a lot on at work, I’d make the effort to go up there.

    TMS reporting that the Trent Bridge website has crashed...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,988
    edited June 13
    algarkirk said:

    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61789982

    "Appeal court judges have refused to stop the government's first flight taking asylum seekers to Rwanda on Tuesday."

    Is it possible that the government never intended this to go ahead - implementation will be patchy, embarrassing and an epic fail at best - and assumed the courts would stop it so that they could blame the treacherous 'enemies of the people' judiciary?

    If it stops the boats coming across the Channel then Priti will be lauded by the Tory right and the chances of her succeeding Boris as Tory leader will increase accordingly
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    DavidL said:

    This Investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards into Starmer’s conduct is getting dirtier and murkier by the hour. First he said it was just late declarations, due to an oversight, these now famous “administrative errors” by his office, that don’t you just know always seem to lead to Police Investigations or Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards investigations. And now we learn it’s not the lateness he is being investigated for, that spin or lies put out by his office - but the suspicious nature of the things he is claiming for. A thousand pound each for two football matches? Is he really finding 5 hours a week to work on a book, to justify the years salary for a nurse he has already received for this work?

    It’s quite possible he could get ticked off and not exonerated as he hopes, from both Investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards and by the Police is it not? if not a commons suspension or FPN, still a ticking off for not having done the right thing in both instances.

    And How quickly will the Investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards conclude, could both these ticking offs for wrong doing, drop the same week in early July?

    Could Starmer even survive a vote of no confidence after that? It would only need a hundred MPs against him? and there’s a big voting block of Corbynites even before a few more disgruntled MPs in the fact Labour have zero cut through so preferring someone else?

    Why is this important to me? Because I pride myself correctly guessing the next poll from each firm, and have boldly stated no Tory Lead in June or July, on basis I couldn’t see the Tory % increasing, the one 36 we called a rogue poll is only time Tory have managed above 34 since Mid May. Starmer could mess up that prediction up for me. There could be greens on 10 or 11 libdems on 15 at Labours expense pushing Labour below Tories, if Starmer and his front bench can’t cut out these gaffs and start making some polling breakthrough soon. 😡

    I thought that the 2 payments for his book amounted to less than £500 in total, which made me feel marginally better about the returns on my book 20 years ago. You don't write legal text books to get rich..
    He’s had more than 18K off them.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,945
    algarkirk said:

    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61789982

    "Appeal court judges have refused to stop the government's first flight taking asylum seekers to Rwanda on Tuesday."

    Is it possible that the government never intended this to go ahead - implementation will be patchy, embarrassing and an epic fail at best - and assumed the courts would stop it so that they could blame the treacherous 'enemies of the people' judiciary?

    You're extremely cynical.
    But so am I. I fully expected it to be stopped, and I suspect they did too.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,383
    rcs1000 said:

    CatMan said:

    If Bitcoin goes, how am I supposed to buy drug off the dark web do my investments?

    Bitcoin and Monero will still exist, and will still be useable on Silk Road (or whatever the kids use these days). It's just that Bitcoin will be $1,500 and Monero $50.
    You know, I actually think Monero might be worth a (very small) punt here.

    It appears that essentially all the "dark markets" now require its use. (Which means that - unlike with other cryptos - there is fundamental demand for it.)

    It also has dramatically smaller transaction fees than either Eth or BTC, and much faster times for transactions to get confirmed.

    And its market cap it only about $2bn. Which means it's mostly being purchased by people who want to do actual (albeit illegal) transactions with it.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,625

    algarkirk said:

    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61789982

    "Appeal court judges have refused to stop the government's first flight taking asylum seekers to Rwanda on Tuesday."

    Is it possible that the government never intended this to go ahead - implementation will be patchy, embarrassing and an epic fail at best - and assumed the courts would stop it so that they could blame the treacherous 'enemies of the people' judiciary?

    They don't care what actually happens as long as they see focus groups using the word 'Rwanda' and 'good idea'/'worth a go'/'what else can we do'/'at least they are trying something' etc.

    The attack on Charles was just about getting the word 'Rwanda' all over the front pages yet again.
    The flights actually going ahead, and the inevitable mistakes and individual horror stories that will come to light, are probably not ideal for the government. It was easier to announce the policy then have it blocked by lefty remoaner lawyers.

    In fact this current situation may be worst case for the government. The flights go ahead but with so few people that the whole thing works out as an eye wateringly expensive waste of time, with a bit of callousness thrown in for good measure to keep those blue wall professional types off side.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,877
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61789982

    "Appeal court judges have refused to stop the government's first flight taking asylum seekers to Rwanda on Tuesday."

    Is it possible that the government never intended this to go ahead - implementation will be patchy, embarrassing and an epic fail at best - and assumed the courts would stop it so that they could blame the treacherous 'enemies of the people' judiciary?

    If it stops the boats coming across the Channel then Priti will be lauded by the Tory right and the chances of her succeeding Boris as Tory leader will increase accordingly
    Very polite and very serious question. Do you personally think this will stop the boats coming across the Chanel?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,383
    Redfield out:

    Highest % for the Lib Dems that we've recorded.

    Westminster Voting Intention (12 June):

    Labour 39% (-1)
    Conservative 32% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 15% (+2)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 2% (-2)
    Other 3% (+1)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,205

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Highest % for the Lib Dems that we've recorded.

    Westminster Voting Intention (12 June):

    Labour 39% (-1)
    Conservative 32% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 15% (+2)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 2% (-2)
    Other 3% (+1)
This discussion has been closed.