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It’s nearly a decade since LAB last made a by-election gain – politicalbetting.com
It’s nearly a decade since LAB last made a by-election gain – politicalbetting.com
In looking over the prospects for next week’s Wakefield by-elections I was quite surprised to discover that the last time that LAB made a by-election game was in 2012. This was at Corby in November of that year to fill a vacancy created by the CON MP, Louise Bagshaw resigning her seat for family reasons. Labour turned a 1,951 deficit at GE2010 into a majority of 7,791 – a CON-LAB swing of 12.7%.
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Not a single member of Labour's frontbench has visited the Devon constituency but most have travelled to Wakefield ahead of key by-elections
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/12/labours-absence-tiverton-honiton-fuels-back-room-deal-rumours/ (£££)
There have only ever been four Senedd by-elections, and Labour have never made a gain.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/12/grant-shapps-plans-hit-rail-strikers-pay-packets-ban-claiming/ (£££)
Basically, the day after a rail strike, all the trains are in the wrong place so staff work overtime in order to run a normal service.
Shapps's masterplan is to run a reduced service instead. Cynics might note this will increase the travelling public's inconvenience.
...
The government is taking its own transparency regulator to court at the taxpayers’ expense to try to block the release of messages between Matt Hancock and his adviser and lover Gina Coladangelo.
The information commissioner ruled in April that the Department of Health and Social Care had been wrong to withhold some emails between the pair, and ordered their release after a request from The Times.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/public-picks-up-bill-in-fight-to-keep-matt-hancock-emails-secret-x65jbw623 (£££)
It is becoming increasingly clear that the Tories want to create a huge industrial conflict. They know that the Winter of Discontent, the Falklands and the miners’ strike made the enduring Maggie myth, and hope that Brexit, vaccines and crushing the rail workers will make for an enduring Boris myth. Their chances of repeating the trick look to be low.
And when it comes to serious electoral threats to the SNP, there is only one game in town, and it ain’t the Tories. Sarwar’s team is only on 22%, but if they can get to 30% then seats start to tumble.
Nope, the Johnson/Mordaunt/Truss/Hunt/Wallace question is only really relevant to Scottish psephology in regard to the constitutional question. Here of course Johnson is an immense SNP asset, not least because we don’t know which side Johnson will plump for. Just like Brexit, it is perfectly conceivable that he does a last-minute shocker.
The Prime Minister faces fury over his Food Strategy White Paper tomorrow, after he ditched pleas from his food tsar Henry Dimbleby - including to let all kids on DWP Universal Credit claim free school meals
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-shelves-free-school-27210879
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/13/food-plan-for-england-condemned-by-its-own-lead-adviser
But it's also deluded to think that this government has any organised plan for any such thing. That would be to give them far too much credit.
Industrial disputes are not good for governments. Even the 1984-5 Miners strike was followed by a swing against the government in the next election, albeit a small one.
If I do the former, then I have to pay about 20% more tax. National Insurance.
I have a strong moral objection to National Insurance because it is an inherently unfair tax, as it only applies to those who work.
My income is good, but also vulnerable to shocks, the contracts I work provide no provision for sick pay, jury service etc; I would be sacked immediately.
If I have no work, the social security system would be little use to me. As far as I can work out, I wouldn't be eligible for any kind of welfare if I don't have work because of my existing assets - which aren't great, but just enough to disqualify me.
Looking at things in the round and objectively, I worked out that to provide security for myself, I need to build up cash reserves in my company to pay myself an income in the event of hard times, because the state would not provide in these circumstances.
I don't think the supposed purposes of national insurance are much use to me, aside from the possibiity of a state pension. But I have paid in quite a bit of money towards that over the years already, and would continue to pay a modest amount of NI.
On a moral level, what is the problem with saying to myself, OK I will just organise my affairs so I pay about the same amount of tax as those who live off income from investments; and make my own provision for social security because the state is not much help in my situation?
Isn't this the most rational response to the situation described above?
I hope to receive my state pension in the future, but I am unsure if even that will be taken away from me.
The look on HYUFD s face if he goes for it...
I would note however that Cummings' track record when it comes to telling the truth about his past actions is - less than stellar.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61774853
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61780450
Barty, please explain?
There will always be a party of the centre right (not necessarily the Tories) so Labour needs to dominate the centre left. Enabling the LibDems creates a long term threat - I am sure that Labour is assuming they will always be subservient but I’m not sure that is the case
Even Wakefield is rather falling into Labour's lap than being actively hunted. As a redwall seat it has more than the usual relevance but bye elections against a party with a substantial majority remain side shows of little importance.
Public sector = bad as government has to pay...
But nowhere in your calculation do you include the reputation or financial consequences of avoiding taxes which are rights due. If you are legally qualified to work outside IR35 then, of course, no one has an obligation to pay more tax than is asked for
I assumed they just did whatever would get a good headline in the Sun this week.
"The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the main driver of April's contraction was the fall in the services sector due to the winding down of the NHS's Covid test and trace operation."
So the shape of our economy is still being distorted by the exceptional spending on the pandemic. As that is wound down the economy shrinks a little. There is no doubt that we are heading to a recession though. Not only our economy but the world economy is in a very bad way and this is being aggravated by the zero Covid policy in China.
Only the Kesk leader, Juri Ratas, can say for sure whether his moves were instigated at the behest of friends of Moscow, but it is a salutary reminder that the Kremlin intends to wage war against the West by any means that it has available. The theft of the Ukrainian grain harvest is simply a further crime to lay at the hands of the Russian dictatorship.
In fact, it now begins to feel that, despite the horrific bloodbath in Eastern Ukraine, this is merely the hors d´oeuvre for what may yet be to come. The weakness of Western Europe and even the United States deeply concerns Tallinn and indeed the whole Nordic and Baltic region. Giving Ukraine sufficent weapons to resist Putinism but not enough to defeat it- apart from being a moral crisis- is a disaster, in that it keeps Russia in the game at a time when it is making threats against the entire world, even threatening to take over Stonehenge. A defeat of Russia is not optional, since any failure to destroy the forces of the tyrant makes it more likely that he will reopen the attack on any front by any means. The cost of living crisis as a global phenomenon is clearly part of Moscow´s strategy to force the West to weaken its response. The fact that Britain is extra vulnerable is the result of poor decision taking in Westminster and Whitehall, but that, sadly, is just par for the course in London these days.
So the threats from the Kremlin grow wilder, more Russians are leaving, their economy is running on empty, but they are expanding their activities towards a total hybrid war. The Battle of Estonia has been won in the short term, but the Battle of Ukraine and indeed the Battle of Europe are just getting going.
Guess which of the two things the travelling public will care about most.
https://mobile.twitter.com/hilzoy/status/1536193703458529282
This is the way I see Liz Cheney: my working hypothesis is that I agree with her on precisely zero policy questions, but I agree with her about the importance of the Constitution and the rule of law.
It matters that this is possible. It matters a lot.
She threw away her position in leadership and, in all likelihood, her political career because she was unwilling to accept an attempted coup. I don't have to agree with her on anything else to admire her for this.
If other employers are paying higher wages, that's right and proper.
If the government are footing the bill, that's evil.
To be fair, that's human nature.
Either way, Sebastian Fox is going to show that below the grin and rolodex of aliases there is no brain.
Not only have they been significantly more effective than predicted, they've also produced a lot of loose ends like this one, which journalists will have fun chasing up.
I think the Trump's chances of another nomination have markedly reduced (though those of a similarly disruptive figure being chosen instead haven't).
https://mobile.twitter.com/wampumpeag/status/1536138423395790848
Like many other folks, I was reminded by Gen. Milley's testimony presented by the Jan6 Committee that Pence allegedly ordered the deployment of the DC National Guard during the attack on the Capitol. However, the VP wasn't the commander-in-chief—so how could he direct any orders?
It says that Section 15 is a technical “insurance” clause to be used as a tidying-up exercise;
Which is exactly the language they used when Internal Market Bill 2020 came out. Same word "tidying up"./8
I wonder where that bit of language may have come from? 🤔
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/may/28/eu.politics7?CMP=gu_com
Boris is Tony Blair and I claim €5
I just ordered a new phone, which was shipped immediately, for example.
What we need to do is fire up the armaments factories to equip Ukraine's army with armoured vehicles, artillery, etc. Everything is still focused on supplying Ukraine from existing stocks. We could do with cranking things up a few notches.
A fun, if low serious punter opportunity, market for the two BEs would be to predict which challenger does better (in terms of winning or losing margin with Tories) between Wakefield and Tiverton.
I reckon it'd fall about 4/6 Lab Wakefield, 5/4 LDs. I'm still thinking Wakefield as about a12--15% Labour win with a bit of variability, and a 6-10% LD victory but with a lot more variability (and not much doorstep intel coming back from T&H as yet).
But not this government. Not this Prime Minister.
I agree about defence spending too but I am wondering what our capacity might be.
To me the question is really - do you just carry on paying NI, but write to your MP saying the system is completely broken and morally bankrupt; or just accept the system is what it is and adapt to it? To me, the latter is the more rational option.
https://news.sky.com/story/shock-contraction-of-0-3-for-economy-in-april-as-cbi-demands-vital-actions-to-prevent-recession-12632893
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/heat-dome-heatwave-europe-june-2022-forecast-mk/
This could be fun...
Some of us have been warning there is a god awful economic storm coming for a while.
Recession what recession.
The extraordinary costs of such branded products will be a topic for future historians to dwell upon in times to come.
https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/1536231599028699137
It's basically a tax scam on behalf of HMRC. But one that nets far less in the way of income than they anticipated, anyway. If they were serious, they'd have made the legislation such that as soon as one is "deemed employed," they must actually be employed, with all of the benefits and protections that entails. But that would shred the areas of work involved (as few would fully employ people when they only need them for a few weeks or months to cover something transient) and cause significant economic impact, so they came up with this scam.
The duty and VAT regime is literally killing our economy. As the government are telling everyone to get electric vehicles the tax haul from fuel sales will drop soon - so why not intervene now? Cut duty by a meaningful amount and remove VAT. So that people can afford to live and work and stop the economy contracting further with all the consequences - and cost to government - of that happening.
The failures of Brexit are, of course, because it does not have any successes built in to it. The Leavers really are the worst whiners winners in history!
The only objection to that would be if you object to immigration or asylum seekers even if they're genuine, which is nasty xenophobia.
And the actual issue always comes down to Employer NI - which is worth £60-70bn to the Government but is only collected from those who are employed - hence HMRC being petrified that that self employment may increase..
Kind of like that South Park episode where they swap Cartman for Starvin Marvin.
Take Scotland - not a perfect analogy by any means. But I think we can all agree that Labour is significantly weakened nationally because it is not the primary left wing party on Scotland.
If you give up that status in the South and Southwest then you massively reduce the potential to win a majority alone on future
The point of that legislation (and subsequent efforts) was to get rid of the situation where people were using contracting as a replacement for regular employment. I knew IT guys who worked for the same bank for a decade as "contractors".
Which, given that they are the most likely to be involved in temporary contracts that could be a considerable distance from home, and their tax burden is the highest of the three classes of workers (employed, self-employed, deemed employed) is very harsh.
An employee or self-employed worker can claim T&S for up to 2 years. A deemed employed worker on a 2 week contract is judged to have that 2-week location as their "permanent place of work" and prohibited from such claims. That's one element that very much vexes those deemed inside IR35 in my experience, and I can understand why.
You've got the repurposed forklift factory at Merthyr Tydfil that's fucking up Ajax. Probably no capacity there.
Rheinmetall-BAE at Bristol are busy painting giant Union Jacks on everything as part of the Challenger 3 project.
The UK has very little capability or capacity to make armour or artillery. The government needs to worry more about equipping its own armed forces competently before fretting about fucking Ukraine.
Phones are simply in the personal jewellery category, for many people.
I used to like paying ACT, it was a great tax that you could pay every quarter so that by the year end you only had a small adjustment and your taxes were always up to date. Then they abolished it and went for an annual tax 9 months after year end and promptly killed their tax revenue for a year.
The Inland Revenue (as it was then) was never noted for its brilliance
As far as I can see, that is the single prospective "benefit" of paying tens of thousands of pounds every year in national insurance in the event that I was out of work. You are correct, that the employer gets out of all contractural obligations including sick pay, redundancy, training, professional fees, grievance procedures, notice of termination of contract etc.
Also technically the 2 year rule you are talking about only occurs if your employer moves you from you initial office to a new one. If you decide to take a job in London you can't claim t&s expenses for your daily commute to London. If, however you employer closed the Peterborough office you worked in and moved it to Cambridge you could claim expenses for the first 2 years of that move.
The duration of the work isn't important. It's control and substitution (and mutuality of obligation, but HMRC tries to argue that the latter is always present, whilst the law tends to disagree with them).
If you cannot be easily substituted in or out, and need to be supervised, it doesn't matter if you're there for 2 weeks, you're deemed employed and inside IR35. If you self-supervise, could arrange a substitute meaningfully, and don't have mutuality of obligation, it doesn't matter if you're there for twenty years, you're outside IR35.
Many people do seem to have the impression that it's all about how long you're there; it can influence it, but it's not at all decisive.
If England are more defensive (Don't bother to declare) (And everything still goes perfectly) then I still don't think he reaches 400 today.
As to China, I get the impression that those in the get-the-economy-working faction are taking priority over the zero-covidians.
The Chinese government is well aware that it's survival depends on economic success, in the long term.
minister that a government with an 80 seat majority can’t do what it said it would because of the pundits. https://twitter.com/SimonClarkeMP/status/1536111830371815424
“I’m afraid it’s bad news again prime minister. We had the Northern Ireland border problem completely sorted but Peston’s gone and done another tweet thread and we’re back to square one I’m afraid.”
“Oh well. Can’t be helped. Where are we on the trade deal with America?”
“Completely banjaxed boss. Was all ready to go then Marina Hyde just ripped the arse out of it.”
“Buggeration. Well I did promise to scrap VAT on energy bills if we left the EU didn’t I. Surely we can do that?”
“We tried, we really tried, but without Hugo Rifkind on board it’s a complete non-starter.”
“Okay. Well what about the £350m a week for the NHS? We wrote it on a bus. Can we not just do it?”
“Well we *could* prime minister but, but..”
“But what?”
“It’s Alastair Campbell prime minister, and Rory Stewart. They’ve, they’ve started a podcast.”
“The fish?? Surely the fish is fine?”
“Well, not exactly fine, no. We *have* taken back control of it but sadly it’s now all rotting in lorries in a disused an airfield in Kent.”
“Why? Wwwhhyyy??”
“I’ll tell you why. Andrew fucking Rawnsley. That’s why.”
“If all this really is their fault can we at least start blaming them?”
“Not as easy as it looks boss. I tested the water with a reply to Kevin Schofield but that wanker Peck at the indy just leapt on it.”
“I don’t even know who that is.”
“No, absolutely no one does. And yet somehow he and his sarcastic mates are all secretly running the deep state via 1,100 word articles on various news websites and there doesn’t appear to be a thing we can do about it.”
“Well that sounds fun. How do you get in to that?”
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1536250632239206400
Seems we have government by confrontation with Rwanda, RMT and public sector unions, and now the NI protocol controversy featuring
I understand the NI legislation has been created by the ERG and David Davis, no less, has apparently suggested he could take over from Boris, if it helps !!!!
How depressing, and we need to see how the polls react but if Labour aren't out of sight then they need to question why