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Johnson could face a confidence vote from the Tory grassroots – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Obviously co-ordinated attack.

    Express has similar headline about Charles.

    The government now appears to be at war with the monarchy only days after the Jubilee (they got bored of attacking judges and lawyers).

    I doubt this will end well for the fat albatross and his Australian advisors.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506

    I see from tomorrow's Mail that Johnson' attack on the monarchy, just a week after Platinum Jubilee, is now in full swing.

    As he has attacked or broken or fecked up every single other institution then why not the ultimate one, the monarchy?

    When will Tory members wake up to the destruction this man is wreaking across everything they believe in?

    The Mail on Sunday understands Ms Patel will change the laws on Modern Slavery to stop left wing lawyers using them to block her policy.

    I don’t like the sound of this lot messing with such laws to be honest.

    Tonight I just want this government gone now, the next two and a half years are going to drag.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    What can we expect with the Protocol bill come Monday? Failure in the Commons? It's difficult to see how a PM who's had 40% of his MPs no confidence him can pass controversial legislation.

    Lords will block it presumably but who cares if Big Rot gets another day's headlines.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Farooq said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Farooq said:

    Maybe Heather Wheeler is right about Blackpool

    The problem with Heather Wheeler's comments is that the main town in her constituency is Swadlincote in Derbyshire which isn't exactly known for its beauty.
    Never heard of it, if I'm honest.
    If it's anything like Blackpool, though, it can fuck right off.
    Birmingham is a lot nicer than Swadlincote in my opinion. Haven't spent enough time in Blackpool to comment.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,525

    How damaging to the Tories is this coming announcement on Farming, Food and Environment?

    With a bit of skin in this game I think it’s a bit dangerous for Tories not to follow through on Brexit promises on farming and food production and fishing etc - there’s lots of constituency’s that could change hands if the policy is as much a dogs dinner as now being reported, much more than they think.

    image

    This is in my area of professional interest, and in my opinion there's quite a lot to like in the statement from the animal welfare angle in particular. In particular, the plan to have mandatory labelling of meat showing animal welfare level, including for imports - which has been a major concern for farmers (because if you raise standards and allow low-standard imports, you simply undercut British farming).

    Obviously the big farmers want the massive subsidies they had under the CAP, and they're not happy. But the combination of Minette fighting the farmers' corner (which in fairness is her job - rather as the RMT leadership's job is to fight for train staff) and the Observer looking for Boris-bashing material, the result is a one-sided article. The report is not perfect by any means, but it's not really a dog's dinner.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564
    edited June 2022
    dixiedean said:

    carnforth said:



    Is Hull a Red Wall seat?

    Sunday Sport has a believable headline?
    Sign of the end times.
    I could believe it of Boris Yeltsin.....

    Possibly even Boris Becker.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Alaska Congressional Special Election Primary - where to find unofficial-official results:

    https://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/22SPECPRIM/index.php

    Note - deadline for in-person voting is Saturday 8pm Alaska time= Sunday 5am UK time
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Andy_JS said:

    SKS fans Please Explain

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 36% (-)
    CON: 34% (+1)
    LDEM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 6% (-2)

    via
    @OpiniumResearch
    , 08 - 10 Jun

    Clear proof, if any was needed, that Ed Davey is heading for Downing Street at the next election.
    Certainly stable polling around the low teens, and with Conservatives well down, is a good place for them to be.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Alaska Congressional Special Election Primary - where to find unofficial-official results:

    https://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/22SPECPRIM/index.php

    Note - deadline for in-person voting is Saturday 8pm Alaska time= Sunday 5am UK time

    Thanks for the link.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506
    edited June 2022

    How damaging to the Tories is this coming announcement on Farming, Food and Environment?

    With a bit of skin in this game I think it’s a bit dangerous for Tories not to follow through on Brexit promises on farming and food production and fishing etc - there’s lots of constituency’s that could change hands if the policy is as much a dogs dinner as now being reported, much more than they think.

    image

    This is in my area of professional interest, and in my opinion there's quite a lot to like in the statement from the animal welfare angle in particular. In particular, the plan to have mandatory labelling of meat showing animal welfare level, including for imports - which has been a major concern for farmers (because if you raise standards and allow low-standard imports, you simply undercut British farming).

    Obviously the big farmers want the massive subsidies they had under the CAP, and they're not happy. But the combination of Minette fighting the farmers' corner (which in fairness is her job - rather as the RMT leadership's job is to fight for train staff) and the Observer looking for Boris-bashing material, the result is a one-sided article. The report is not perfect by any means, but it's not really a dog's dinner.
    Oh that’s interesting. You are not towing your own parties message, Johnny Owls style. Opposition parties have been calling it far worse than a dogs dinner, and it’s not just Observer running negative stories. Sky seemed bewildered by the eat more venison sound bite. There’s a lot more going on than animal welfare Nick - I was clipping ears, docking tails and castrating little fluffy things for their own good last month you will be pleased to know - but contentious things like sugar tax are gone. Environmentalists not happy. Still much fear of getting undercut by imports right across the food production industry, and the so called hidden Brexit costs for exports that never made it on t side of any bus.

    Are you in favour of Taxing Cow Farts Nick? My girlfriend accuses me of farting like a cow sometimes, would I be liable to pay in each case or does it just pick on actual cows, not farting styles?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    edited June 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    SKS fans Please Explain

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 36% (-)
    CON: 34% (+1)
    LDEM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 6% (-2)

    via
    @OpiniumResearch
    , 08 - 10 Jun

    Clear proof, if any was needed, that Ed Davey is heading for Downing Street at the next election.
    I am amazed the polls are so close. Is it because to get any substantial difference the LDs need to squeeze the Tories and they aren't really doing it yet, although they have made a little progress.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506
    Grant Shapps and Karsi Karteng are promising to ignore law that prevents agency workers from busting the coming train strikes.

    Just shows how overpaid rail staff have become, if agency workers can simply swan in on first day to engineering, driving and signalling to break this strike? Anyone have a problem with that? Other than maybe a little bit about safety?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,300
    The fact that 148 Conservatives MPs voted No in the confidence vote last Monday must indicate that there is a good chance of reaching a target 65 constituency chairmen's signatures?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    fitalass said:

    The fact that 148 Conservatives MPs voted No in the confidence vote last Monday must indicate that there is a good chance of reaching a target 65 constituency chairmen's signatures?

    Yeh, but iirc this 65 chairperson's thing is non binding, so Johnson will sail on.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    Grant Shapps and Karsi Karteng are promising to ignore law that prevents agency workers from busting the coming train strikes.

    Just shows how overpaid rail staff have become, if agency workers can simply swan in on first day to engineering, driving and signalling to break this strike? Anyone have a problem with that? Other than maybe a little bit about safety?

    I'm lost.

    "ignore law" means they will face the law surely?


    And who are all these trained drivers sitting in agent's office just waiting for a strike?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    The Tories are fine because they don't really want to hold an election until the new boundaries are in place, which won't be until around autumn next year, which gives plenty of time for another leadership contest if the polls don't improve.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506
    edited June 2022

    Grant Shapps and Karsi Karteng are promising to ignore law that prevents agency workers from busting the coming train strikes.

    Just shows how overpaid rail staff have become, if agency workers can simply swan in on first day to engineering, driving and signalling to break this strike? Anyone have a problem with that? Other than maybe a little bit about safety?

    I'm lost.

    "ignore law" means they will face the law surely?


    And who are all these trained drivers sitting in agent's office just waiting for a strike?
    It’s on front of Telegraph. Maybe it’s me explaining poorly, or maybe not. I’ll try again. But it’s likely we will here more of it in next twelve hours!

    Labour Party Government legal restriction agency staff can’t break strikes, but both Shapps and Karteng working hard for us passengers (personally I hate trains never go in them - pleb wagons) and now have plans to remove that legal restriction in time to break strike in the coming week of what will otherwise be rail travel chaos. So agency staff can now replace all strikers and render impact of strikes negatory - except saving on paying strikers pay.

    In the email below I surmised the only possible quibble with this action is if your love ones a travelling that day, is it all still 100% safe?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,300

    fitalass said:

    The fact that 148 Conservatives MPs voted No in the confidence vote last Monday must indicate that there is a good chance of reaching a target 65 constituency chairmen's signatures?

    Yeh, but iirc this 65 chairperson's thing is non binding, so Johnson will sail on.
    Mike Smithson noted in his article that it was non binding, but as he also points out 'it would clearly have a huge impact and its symbolism would be huge'. I would be hoping that as constituency chairman announced their signatures, it would then gather some momentum and like the no confidence letters it would end up exceeding the threshold required. This in turn could trigger some of the leadership contenders in Government to resign.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    Grant Shapps and Karsi Karteng are promising to ignore law that prevents agency workers from busting the coming train strikes.

    Just shows how overpaid rail staff have become, if agency workers can simply swan in on first day to engineering, driving and signalling to break this strike? Anyone have a problem with that? Other than maybe a little bit about safety?

    Kwarsi Kwarteng.
  • Grant Shapps and Karsi Karteng are promising to ignore law that prevents agency workers from busting the coming train strikes.

    Just shows how overpaid rail staff have become, if agency workers can simply swan in on first day to engineering, driving and signalling to break this strike? Anyone have a problem with that? Other than maybe a little bit about safety?

    I'm lost.

    "ignore law" means they will face the law surely?


    And who are all these trained drivers sitting in agent's office just waiting for a strike?
    It’s on front of Telegraph. Maybe it’s me explaining poorly, or maybe not. I’ll try again. But it’s likely we will here more of it in next twelve hours!

    Labour Party Government legal restriction agency staff can’t break strikes, but both Shapps and Karteng working hard for us passengers (personally I hate trains never go in them - pleb wagons) and now have plans to remove that legal restriction in time to break strike in the coming week of what will otherwise be rail travel chaos. So agency staff can now replace all strikers and render impact of strikes negatory - except saving on paying strikers pay.

    In the email below I surmised the only possible quibble with this action is if your love ones a travelling that day, is it all still 100% safe?
    Dont know about using agency staff but they are currently asking rail company managers to commit to working (i.e strike-breaking) on mooted strike days.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,300
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories are fine because they don't really want to hold an election until the new boundaries are in place, which won't be until around autumn next year, which gives plenty of time for another leadership contest if the polls don't improve.

    Just another reason why the Boris camp's threat to hold an early GE was complete mince, even the lemmings still backing him would think twice about throwing the whole party under a bus unnecessarily.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506
    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    The fact that 148 Conservatives MPs voted No in the confidence vote last Monday must indicate that there is a good chance of reaching a target 65 constituency chairmen's signatures?

    Yeh, but iirc this 65 chairperson's thing is non binding, so Johnson will sail on.
    Mike Smithson noted in his article that it was non binding, but as he also points out 'it would clearly have a huge impact and its symbolism would be huge'. I would be hoping that as constituency chairman announced their signatures, it would then gather some momentum and like the no confidence letters it would end up exceeding the threshold required. This in turn could trigger some of the leadership contenders in Government to resign.
    Maybe. Or maybe if there are people serious about their career taking them to the party leadership they prefer to wait till after Boris had to go after losing eighty seat majority for their time to take over, rather like with Major it soon started to move into the territory of the next election so contests put on hold.

    Or maybe big dog finds 66 chairpersons to endorse him? Touché as Mogg would say 😂

    Or maybe, and here’s a very plausible one I don’t think anyone has raised yet. There’s another vonc and Boris loses by one, so can’t stand can he? Think again PB, because you know MoonRabbit is right again 😁 If all these rules can be changed then let me offer the change where Boris is allowed to stand, and he wins, doesn’t he, in the membership vote.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506

    Grant Shapps and Karsi Karteng are promising to ignore law that prevents agency workers from busting the coming train strikes.

    Just shows how overpaid rail staff have become, if agency workers can simply swan in on first day to engineering, driving and signalling to break this strike? Anyone have a problem with that? Other than maybe a little bit about safety?

    Kwarsi Kwarteng.
    As you are PBs shadow minister for Transport, and I Merely sport, I bow to your area of expertise. Like I nearly bowed to Nicks.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    edited June 2022
    Farooq said:

    It's never occurred to me before now just how tiny the Labour vote is in my constituency. I mean, I knew they are basically non-existent here, but I never really compared it with other places. Outside Orkney & Shetland (which has half the electorate) and Northern Ireland where Labour don't stand, it's the second-worst Labour vote in the country. Only North-East Fife beats it (1707 votes in NE Fife, 1734 in B&B).

    Don't know why it's taken me this long to notice quite how remarkably low that is compared to other places.

    Shall I tell you something else slightly unique about B&B: it is one of an incredibly small list of seats where the LDs moved ahead of Labour between 2010 and 2019.

    It's also the only seat in Scotland which the SNP held in 2010 (before the Independence referendum)... But which they did not win in 2019.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Andy_JS said:

    SKS fans Please Explain

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 36% (-)
    CON: 34% (+1)
    LDEM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 6% (-2)

    via
    @OpiniumResearch
    , 08 - 10 Jun

    Clear proof, if any was needed, that Ed Davey is heading for Downing Street at the next election.
    All he needs to do is to switch the '3' and the '1' around, and he's in with a real shout.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Grant Shapps and Karsi Karteng are promising to ignore law that prevents agency workers from busting the coming train strikes.

    Just shows how overpaid rail staff have become, if agency workers can simply swan in on first day to engineering, driving and signalling to break this strike? Anyone have a problem with that? Other than maybe a little bit about safety?

    That doesn't logically follow.

    Agency staff can be incredibly specialised; they can be train drivers with twenty years experience, or cardiothoracic specialist nurses. Very few agency staff are "John from Streatham who usually works in data input" these days.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    Grant Shapps and Karsi Karteng are promising to ignore law that prevents agency workers from busting the coming train strikes.

    Just shows how overpaid rail staff have become, if agency workers can simply swan in on first day to engineering, driving and signalling to break this strike? Anyone have a problem with that? Other than maybe a little bit about safety?

    Kwarsi Kwarteng.
    A good try but hopefully third time lucky.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,896
    New thread.
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 127
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories are fine because they don't really want to hold an election until the new boundaries are in place, which won't be until around autumn next year, which gives plenty of time for another leadership contest if the polls don't improve.

    The economy will be in full recession by next year. No government will choose to go the country in those circumstances.

    But unless oil and gas prices come down in the next 6 months, a winter election this year (which suppresses Labour and under 30 turnout) is tricky.

    I expect Boris will choose to go this autumn - if he can turn around his personal ratings.

    He'll probably scrape back in as well.

  • TresTres Posts: 2,696
    rcs1000 said:

    Farooq said:

    It's never occurred to me before now just how tiny the Labour vote is in my constituency. I mean, I knew they are basically non-existent here, but I never really compared it with other places. Outside Orkney & Shetland (which has half the electorate) and Northern Ireland where Labour don't stand, it's the second-worst Labour vote in the country. Only North-East Fife beats it (1707 votes in NE Fife, 1734 in B&B).

    Don't know why it's taken me this long to notice quite how remarkably low that is compared to other places.

    Shall I tell you something else slightly unique about B&B: it is one of an incredibly small list of seats where the LDs moved ahead of Labour between 2010 and 2019.

    It's also the only seat in Scotland which the SNP held in 2010 (before the Independence referendum)... But which they did not win in 2019.
    Douglas Ross says hi.
This discussion has been closed.