Wow, Scholz now with a very bold statement that won't survive a fact check:
"We will continue to support Ukraine with arms deliveries. Germany is doing this MORE INTENSIVELY THAN ALMOST ANYONE ELSE & will continue support as long as it's necessary to repel 🇷🇺 aggression."
(My 50 cent: Saying this in the Baltics, whose support for Ukraine in relation to GDP absolutely dwarfs Germany, sounds pretty arrogant. Also in total terms other countries have delivered more weapons; and heavy 🇩🇪 weapons still have to arrive to 🇺🇦)
It's also bullshit in terms of refugees. Poland, Moldova, the Baltics, etc, have all taken way more refugees per capita. Poland has taken more in absolute terms
I can't work out if Scholz is simply inept, or actively mendacious and malign
It's about deep rooted beliefs, almost certainly.
To the East Politics group, Being a Modern Decent German requires good relations with Russia. Among other things. Because fighting Russia = The Past.
So supplying weapons to a country fighting Russia involves a kind of cognitive dissonance. The logical, practical side of the brain says that "We must defend against aggression", but the instinct "We must have peace with Russia" keeps popping up.
When you add a dose of German Exceptionalism and What Is Good For Germany is Good For Europe into the mix, you get... well, Scholz.
It’s a shame T&H isn’t a little bit closer. There is a definite chance of the Tories retaining it, and that could really deal a blow to tactical voting in the next GE. Lib Dems need to be established as the main challengers across the South West and leafy Home Counties.
Conversely a clear win for them in Devon with a collapsed Labour vote and a landslide win for Labour in Wakefield with a collapsed Lib Dem vote will really send a message to voters. Perfect case study.
I'd like a little more than 'we are not the Tories' to vote for. Id like to know what i am holding the LDs or Labour to account for. Once you discount the absurd and arrogant notion that either party are in any way a morally superior or simply a moral choice, you need to see what they offer, not what they are not.
I’m pretty sure in the coming election a lot of voters will be content to vote on exactly those lines: for the “not Tory”. The “not SNP” appears to be the basis of much unionist voting in Scotland.
Not in the May election. The “not Tory” zeitgeist was palpable. It was the best SNP result ever in local elections, and our eleventh election victory in a row.
A chap I knew actually wrote a shuttle landing simulator for the space shuttle - it was designed for a laptop format Sparc station (IIRC) that would be velcro'd in position on the actual space shuttle in orbit. The pilots could then practise landings. The idea was that they could practise landings on longer missions.
According to him, they programmed it with the various aerodynamic coefficients etc for the actual Shuttle. It was an early example of a flight simulator based on actual physics.
No one in the team could land it - crashed every time.
A bit worried, after some checking of their work, they asked someone from the astronaut office to come and try it.
The astronaut did a bunch of landings, apparently quite easily. He thanked them for the quality of the work....
Ha ha, brilliant story!
The Shuttle landing was totally nuts to even experienced pilots, an insane exercise in energy management that sees the thing drop tens of thousands of feet per minute, all programmed into a flight director on a head-up display, to keep the pilot on course. Oh, and it’s a glider, so no going around around if you get it wrong!
My understanding is that only once was the shuttle approach flown manually - every other time it was done by computer.
They had a flight director programmed with the profile, but not an auto pilot. The Commander had to use stick and rudder for the last 5 minutes or so, keeping to the descent profile with reference to the HUD. Keep the cross in the circle, same as with any other aircraft!
It may have been that on one occasion the FD failed, and the pilot had to wing it on raw data - which must have been scary as f***, even with all the training.
"Veteran WWII Glider Pilots allowed to fly the Shuttle simulator drew praise from Shuttle pilots as they brought the massive "glider" to a safe landing within feet of the designated touchdown mark."
Good Tory leaflet in Tiverton and Honiton. It is a Leave voting and traditional Tory area and hitting the LDs hard on their opposition to Brexit and tighter border controls and tougher prison sentences will go down well there. Also ensures the literature is not all one way from the Liberals.
The Conservative candidate is a well known local woman and I think has a chance of holding the seat which the Tories won with 60% of the vote in 2019. Most Labour voters will tactically vote LD anyway, to have a chance of holding on the Tories need to keep their core vote and get them out to vote
A well known local woman who is being hidden away and not allowed to talk to anyone.
I am sure she is canvassing hard and delivering hard, the fact she is not speaking to the media is a good thing, they don't have a vote in the by election only local voters do!
It is the activists job to deliver and canvas in a by election. It is the candidates job to put herself about in the media, hustings, etc because she can contact more voters that way than on the doorstep. The reason she isn't, is because she will be hit with impossible questions about Boris. She may be very competent, but nobody can really deal with that.
No, it is also the candidates job to canvass and meet as many voters as they can door to door. The vast majority of any voters in a by election will not even get the local paper or read a national news report of it or attend a hustings. However if they are met by the candidate face to face at their doorstep it will probably be the only personal contact they get with them all campaign
She will meet a lot more out and about in the high street, at the school gate or at the railway station than canvassing. Have you ever organized a by election?
Two heavy by-election defeats coming: in both Red Wall and Blue Wall. If tory MPs didn't have the gumption to administer the coup de grace, the voters will.
A right-left sucker punch that would have made Muhammed Ali proud.
Wakefield is red wall ie a normally Labour Leave Northern or Midlands or Welsh seat that went Tory in 2019.
Tiverton and Honiton however isn't really blue wall ie a normally Tory Remain seat in the Home Counties which the LDs should see as a top target eg Chesham and Amersham. It should demographically as a Tory Leave seat be as strong Tory as Labour Remain seats are still strong Labour
I am really, really, really, looking forward to your confidence about Boris being shown to fail at the next General Election. You are in for a complete shock.
In the meantime, the idea that Tiverton & Honiton is not Blue Wall is an absolute joke. Seriously. Even in the 1997 New Labour landslide, it still returned a Conservative.
Tiverton & Honiton is to the Blue Wall as Liverpool Walton is to the Red Wall - a long way behind the front line.
It won't save it.
Tories wont bother turning out. It will of course revert at the GE but for the by election there is no impetus to show up
Give a new local MP 2 years to make their mark. Throw in Johnson still clinging to power like a shipwrecked sailor on a burning plank and no resolution to the energy or cost of living issues and I would not be at all surprised to see the Lib Dems retaining the seat at the next GE.
And, of course, for the record I am not pumping them up as I don't support the Lib Dems at all. It just seems complacent to think it will revert just because it is supposedly a Tory seat.
Indeed a lot of the seats taken from the Tories in the 1992-1997 parliament didn’t revert until 2015 and the Lib Dem collapse. It is never wise to assume a seat lost in a by election will automatically revert to ‘type’, particularly given the fact this government is slowly dying.
There will be a few thousand tories sitting on their hands who turn out at the GE and the by election tacticals and protest unwind kick in too. See Brecon etc LDs will get nowhere near T and H at a GE imo. Nor North Shropshire. Maybe Chesham but i doubt it. This is not 1997 and until polling shows us headed there then i cant see these safe seats doing anything but return to type... further down the tree however.....
On the other hand, it will mean the LibDems waste a shitload of money trying to defend these short-term MPs.
Wow, Scholz now with a very bold statement that won't survive a fact check:
"We will continue to support Ukraine with arms deliveries. Germany is doing this MORE INTENSIVELY THAN ALMOST ANYONE ELSE & will continue support as long as it's necessary to repel 🇷🇺 aggression."
(My 50 cent: Saying this in the Baltics, whose support for Ukraine in relation to GDP absolutely dwarfs Germany, sounds pretty arrogant. Also in total terms other countries have delivered more weapons; and heavy 🇩🇪 weapons still have to arrive to 🇺🇦)
A chap I knew actually wrote a shuttle landing simulator for the space shuttle - it was designed for a laptop format Sparc station (IIRC) that would be velcro'd in position on the actual space shuttle in orbit. The pilots could then practise landings. The idea was that they could practise landings on longer missions.
According to him, they programmed it with the various aerodynamic coefficients etc for the actual Shuttle. It was an early example of a flight simulator based on actual physics.
No one in the team could land it - crashed every time.
A bit worried, after some checking of their work, they asked someone from the astronaut office to come and try it.
The astronaut did a bunch of landings, apparently quite easily. He thanked them for the quality of the work....
Ha ha, brilliant story!
The Shuttle landing was totally nuts to even experienced pilots, an insane exercise in energy management that sees the thing drop tens of thousands of feet per minute, all programmed into a flight director on a head-up display, to keep the pilot on course. Oh, and it’s a glider, so no going around around if you get it wrong!
My understanding is that only once was the shuttle approach flown manually - every other time it was done by computer.
They had a flight director programmed with the profile, but not an auto pilot. The Commander had to use stick and rudder for the last 5 minutes or so, keeping to the descent profile with reference to the HUD. Keep the cross in the circle, same as with any other aircraft!
It may have been that on one occasion the FD failed, and the pilot had to wing it on raw data - which must have been scary as f***, even with all the training.
"Veteran WWII Glider Pilots allowed to fly the Shuttle simulator drew praise from Shuttle pilots as they brought the massive "glider" to a safe landing within feet of the designated touchdown mark."
Two heavy by-election defeats coming: in both Red Wall and Blue Wall. If tory MPs didn't have the gumption to administer the coup de grace, the voters will.
A right-left sucker punch that would have made Muhammed Ali proud.
Wakefield is red wall ie a normally Labour Leave Northern or Midlands or Welsh seat that went Tory in 2019.
Tiverton and Honiton however isn't really blue wall ie a normally Tory Remain seat in the Home Counties which the LDs should see as a top target eg Chesham and Amersham. It should demographically as a Tory Leave seat be as strong Tory as Labour Remain seats are still strong Labour
I am really, really, really, looking forward to your confidence about Boris being shown to fail at the next General Election. You are in for a complete shock.
In the meantime, the idea that Tiverton & Honiton is not Blue Wall is an absolute joke. Seriously. Even in the 1997 New Labour landslide, it still returned a Conservative.
Tiverton & Honiton is to the Blue Wall as Liverpool Walton is to the Red Wall - a long way behind the front line.
It won't save it.
Tories wont bother turning out. It will of course revert at the GE but for the by election there is no impetus to show up
Give a new local MP 2 years to make their mark. Throw in Johnson still clinging to power like a shipwrecked sailor on a burning plank and no resolution to the energy or cost of living issues and I would not be at all surprised to see the Lib Dems retaining the seat at the next GE.
And, of course, for the record I am not pumping them up as I don't support the Lib Dems at all. It just seems complacent to think it will revert just because it is supposedly a Tory seat.
In 1993 the Tories lost Christchurch to the LDs in a by election but won it back at the 1997 general election. In 2016 the Tories lost Richmond Park to the LDs at a by election but won it back at the 2017 general election. In summer 2019 the Tories lost Brecon and Radnor to the LDs in a by election but won it back in the December general election. It often happens
Yes often it happens. And often it doesn't. Picking out 3 examples on which to base a rule is not reasonable.
In 1993 the Tories lost Newbury to the Lib Dems and failed to win it back at the next GE. In 1994 the Tories lost Eastleigh to the Lib Dems and failed to win it back at the next GE. In 1995 the Tories lost Littleborough and Saddleworth to the Lib Dems and failed to win it back at the next GE when it went Labour
There are plenty of examples going both ways so it is not, by any means, a done deal
We have two very sound economists on here. One who sleeps with the angels* the other who doesn't but I've just had a very enlightening lesson as I followed Bartholomew and OnlyLivingBoy trying patiently to explain some basics to Leon.
To be fair the subtlety of GDP and GDP per annum was something I also didn't understand but unlike Leon who was last seen still arguing the point at least I do now!
* A lefty
As we said, GDP is a flow and trying to understand it and its nuances properly is like the economic equivalent of fluid dynamics, difficult but not that interesting to most people.
Except, Ellwood did not say "a year". I was right
If Roger hadn't added that "a year", coz he misheard (or misunderstood?), then there would have been no argument and none of us would have wasted fifteen bloody hours
Have we taken a permanent hit of 4% to our economic output? Quite possibly. Brexit is a drag. Tho it is extremely hard to be precise because of huge confounding factors, namely Plague and War
He didn't need to say "a year" because it is tautologically redundant.
Just as the words I just used, all tautologies are redundant.
What's 'appening ere is a FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE!!
If I lost £5,000 this year on the gee-gees I would be £5,000 poorer. And that would be true forever. From that year on, every year, I would be that £5k poorer. It's gone
But if I described this to you this way "I'm losing £5k a year on the gee-gees" then that would be a lie, or nonsensical. You'd think I was losing another £5k EVERY YEAR on my terrible gambling habit
By mistakenly adding "a year" to Ellwood's remarks about GDP, Roger made Ellwood sound as daft as Roger always sounds. But of course Ellwood did not say that, he's not as silly as Rogerdamus. Roger misunderstood
I hesitate to get involved in this but the difference is between a one off effect and an ongoing trend. So, it was initially claimed that the UK would suffer a one off hit as a result of Brexit that would mean any growth going forward would be from a lower base. That didn't happen although there was some currency volatility.
The arguement then evolved to the proposition that what we have suffered was a permanent dimunition in our terms of trade with the result that future growth would be somewhere between 0.2% and 0.4% a year less resulting in our GDP in 10 years time being something like 6% less. As that was a permanently reduced income we would be suffering that from that point forward each year. There are models which show that if you build that assumption in but so far there is no credible evidence that this is happening in the real world. The fact that the UK had higher growth than the EU with that last year is only consistent with that if you think that we would have exceeded the norm by an even bigger margin if we had stayed in. Possible but unlikely.
The years since we left have been far too extraordinary to reach a concluded view on this matter yet. It is possible that such an effect will become visible over time. But the traditional assumption of economic models, ceteris paribus, is frankly absurd because it assumes that no compensating action will be taken or, more accurately, does not allow any such action to count as a compensating figure.
To take a simple example good or bad economic management in this country will have a much larger effect over the period than any alleged diminution in the terms of trade. We should be focusing on that, as I have said already many times this morning.
I disagree that Brexit will have a permanent effect on GDP growth but I do think that it will have and indeed already has had a permanent effect on the level of GDP, and that permanent level effect will occur gradually over a period of time so will show up as a temporary effect on GDP growth. Whether you approach this question from first principles using an economic model, compare the UK's recent performance to a counterfactual using comparable countries, or simply eyeball a chart of GDP, you get a similar answer. Of course there is a lot of noise from Covid and nothing in economics is ever certain, but the view that Brexit has had a measurable negative effect on the level of GDP is the mainstream one among people who are paid to look at these things. This discussion is entirely separate from the one we are having with @Leon, which simply stems from his inability to admit that he got something wrong.
If you build an adverse assumption into a model then the outcome is arithmetic, not economics. The validity of the assumption is the relevant factor, not the validity of the model.
If you don't think that Brexit will have a permanent effect on GDP growth why is this going to change from the arithmetical model? I would assume that is because you recognise that over time compensatory steps will be taken that will offset it. My point is that a government that was paying attention would be making such compensatory steps now. We saw a little bit of this in Truss's new trade deals but clearly they were not enough on their own and in most cases simply gave us back a bit of what had been lost.
But by improving our economic performance domestically we can do better. The government and the opposition are not showing any signs of focusing on this, which is unfortunate. It is, ultimately, what actually matters.
I guess I start with a simple production function for the economy, where output is a function of capital, labour and total factor productivity. Over time the economy will grow in line with the growth in those factor inputs plus total factor productivity growth. Brexit increases barriers to trade and since there is a whole literature showing that trade boosts the level of productivity in the economy, I would assume that as the economy becomes less trade intensive it reduces our productivity relative to the counterfactual. That process will continue only as long as it takes the economy to adjust to its new, less trade intensive, state. The economy will then grow in line with the underlying factors driving TFP growth. This is quite mainstream and is the rationale behind the BOE and OBR forecasts AFAIK. Brexit could have an impact on the long run growth rate through lower population growth, but I am ignoring that because GDP per capita is probably more what we should be focusing on.
Final thought on this GDP conversation, lets switch to another flow example - petrol is about 50p a litre more expensive than it was previously.
That doesn't mean it that the first litre I buy is 50p more expensive, then the rest return to the same price, it means every litre is 50p more expensive.
If GDP takes a 4% hit then that means every year's GDP is 4% lower unless something changes that in the future, not just this years, just as every litre is 50p more expensive not just the first one.
If that doesn't explain it to you Leon, I don't know what else can. Have fun everybody.
So you should say "each time I buy it, petrol is 50p more expensive" and, of course, everyone would understand you mean there has been just one price rise of 50p which you moan about EACH time you go to the Esso garage. No one, BUT NO ONE, would foolishly mIsinterpret your words and think OMG, PETROL IS GOING UP 50P A LITRE PRACTICALLY EVERY WEEK, @BartholomewRoberts TOLD ME!
Two heavy by-election defeats coming: in both Red Wall and Blue Wall. If tory MPs didn't have the gumption to administer the coup de grace, the voters will.
A right-left sucker punch that would have made Muhammed Ali proud.
Wakefield is red wall ie a normally Labour Leave Northern or Midlands or Welsh seat that went Tory in 2019.
Tiverton and Honiton however isn't really blue wall ie a normally Tory Remain seat in the Home Counties which the LDs should see as a top target eg Chesham and Amersham. It should demographically as a Tory Leave seat be as strong Tory as Labour Remain seats are still strong Labour
I am really, really, really, looking forward to your confidence about Boris being shown to fail at the next General Election. You are in for a complete shock.
In the meantime, the idea that Tiverton & Honiton is not Blue Wall is an absolute joke. Seriously. Even in the 1997 New Labour landslide, it still returned a Conservative.
Tiverton & Honiton is to the Blue Wall as Liverpool Walton is to the Red Wall - a long way behind the front line.
It won't save it.
Tories wont bother turning out. It will of course revert at the GE but for the by election there is no impetus to show up
Give a new local MP 2 years to make their mark. Throw in Johnson still clinging to power like a shipwrecked sailor on a burning plank and no resolution to the energy or cost of living issues and I would not be at all surprised to see the Lib Dems retaining the seat at the next GE.
And, of course, for the record I am not pumping them up as I don't support the Lib Dems at all. It just seems complacent to think it will revert just because it is supposedly a Tory seat.
In 1993 the Tories lost Christchurch to the LDs in a by election but won it back at the 1997 general election. In 2016 the Tories lost Richmond Park to the LDs at a by election but won it back at the 2017 general election. In summer 2019 the Tories lost Brecon and Radnor to the LDs in a by election but won it back in the December general election. It often happens
Yes often it happens. And often it doesn't. Picking out 3 examples on which to base a rule is not reasonable.
In 1993 the Tories lost Newbury to the Lib Dems and failed to win it back at the next GE. In 1994 the Tories lost Eastleigh to the Lib Dems and failed to win it back at the next GE. In 1995 the Tories lost Littleborough and Saddleworth to the Lib Dems and failed to win it back at the next GE when it went Labour
There are plenty of examples going both ways so it is not, by any means, a done deal
Tbf none of those were as safe as T and H. The Tories have a 40% lead. Newbury is the most impressive of those but even a repeat of both the by election swing and the circumstances of 1997 at the next GE and it would be an unlikely hold. Eastleigh was closer to start and remained close and Litlleborough was fairly marginal anyway.
Not impossible but extremely unlikely unless there us a 1997 style implosion
Given that Blockbuster is a fondly remembered but very much defunct video rental store, saying that the PM will create a 'blockbuster health system in the age of netflix' is quite damning. What next, a Kays catalogue NHS in an age of Amazon?
Looks like anybody who knows anything has already walked away from Boris, if this is what they have left.....
Tories quietly scrap controversial £2bn rail link on day of no confidence vote The Golborne Link, which would take HS2 trains on the line to Glasgow, has been formally ditched after months of speculation. Sources insisted the date was a coincidence and it had been in the diary for weeks
Good Tory leaflet in Tiverton and Honiton. It is a Leave voting and traditional Tory area and hitting the LDs hard on their opposition to Brexit and tighter border controls and tougher prison sentences will go down well there. Also ensures the literature is not all one way from the Liberals.
The Conservative candidate is a well known local woman and I think has a chance of holding the seat which the Tories won with 60% of the vote in 2019. Most Labour voters will tactically vote LD anyway, to have a chance of holding on the Tories need to keep their core vote and get them out to vote
A well known local woman who is being hidden away and not allowed to talk to anyone.
I am sure she is canvassing hard and delivering hard, the fact she is not speaking to the media is a good thing, they don't have a vote in the by election only local voters do!
It is the activists job to deliver and canvas in a by election. It is the candidates job to put herself about in the media, hustings, etc because she can contact more voters that way than on the doorstep. The reason she isn't, is because she will be hit with impossible questions about Boris. She may be very competent, but nobody can really deal with that.
No, it is also the candidates job to canvass and meet as many voters as they can door to door. The vast majority of any voters in a by election will not even get the local paper or read a national news report of it or attend a hustings. However if they are met by the candidate face to face at their doorstep it will probably be the only personal contact they get with them all campaign
She will meet a lot more out and about in the high street, at the school gate or at the railway station than canvassing. Have you ever organized a by election?
I am sure she does that too but actually in reality they won't and you cannot be sure everyone in the high street or at the station lives in the constituency anyway which you can canvassing door to door
Two heavy by-election defeats coming: in both Red Wall and Blue Wall. If tory MPs didn't have the gumption to administer the coup de grace, the voters will.
A right-left sucker punch that would have made Muhammed Ali proud.
Wakefield is red wall ie a normally Labour Leave Northern or Midlands or Welsh seat that went Tory in 2019.
Tiverton and Honiton however isn't really blue wall ie a normally Tory Remain seat in the Home Counties which the LDs should see as a top target eg Chesham and Amersham. It should demographically as a Tory Leave seat be as strong Tory as Labour Remain seats are still strong Labour
I am really, really, really, looking forward to your confidence about Boris being shown to fail at the next General Election. You are in for a complete shock.
In the meantime, the idea that Tiverton & Honiton is not Blue Wall is an absolute joke. Seriously. Even in the 1997 New Labour landslide, it still returned a Conservative.
Tiverton & Honiton is to the Blue Wall as Liverpool Walton is to the Red Wall - a long way behind the front line.
It won't save it.
Tories wont bother turning out. It will of course revert at the GE but for the by election there is no impetus to show up
Give a new local MP 2 years to make their mark. Throw in Johnson still clinging to power like a shipwrecked sailor on a burning plank and no resolution to the energy or cost of living issues and I would not be at all surprised to see the Lib Dems retaining the seat at the next GE.
And, of course, for the record I am not pumping them up as I don't support the Lib Dems at all. It just seems complacent to think it will revert just because it is supposedly a Tory seat.
In 1993 the Tories lost Christchurch to the LDs in a by election but won it back at the 1997 general election. In 2016 the Tories lost Richmond Park to the LDs at a by election but won it back at the 2017 general election. In summer 2019 the Tories lost Brecon and Radnor to the LDs in a by election but won it back in the December general election. It often happens
It usually happens, but it doesn’t always happen. The LDs won back Richmond Park in 2019. They held Brent East in 2005 after first winning it in the 2003 by-election. They held Romney at the 2001 general after winning it in a by-election the year before. They first won Eastleigh in a 1994 by-election and kept winning in the seat until 2015.
I guess you mean Romsey, which they held not only in 2001 as you stated but also in 2005. The constituency was abolished in 2010 and became Romsey and Southampton North which went Tory.
I have typed and retyped a comment on this leaflet about five times now and deleted it each time. I can't find the words to express how cluelessly counter-productive it is.
We have two very sound economists on here. One who sleeps with the angels* the other who doesn't but I've just had a very enlightening lesson as I followed Bartholomew and OnlyLivingBoy trying patiently to explain some basics to Leon.
To be fair the subtlety of GDP and GDP per annum was something I also didn't understand but unlike Leon who was last seen still arguing the point at least I do now!
* A lefty
As we said, GDP is a flow and trying to understand it and its nuances properly is like the economic equivalent of fluid dynamics, difficult but not that interesting to most people.
Except, Ellwood did not say "a year". I was right
If Roger hadn't added that "a year", coz he misheard (or misunderstood?), then there would have been no argument and none of us would have wasted fifteen bloody hours
Have we taken a permanent hit of 4% to our economic output? Quite possibly. Brexit is a drag. Tho it is extremely hard to be precise because of huge confounding factors, namely Plague and War
He didn't need to say "a year" because it is tautologically redundant.
Just as the words I just used, all tautologies are redundant.
What's 'appening ere is a FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE!!
If I lost £5,000 this year on the gee-gees I would be £5,000 poorer. And that would be true forever. From that year on, every year, I would be that £5k poorer. It's gone
But if I described this to you this way "I'm losing £5k a year on the gee-gees" then that would be a lie, or nonsensical. You'd think I was losing another £5k EVERY YEAR on my terrible gambling habit
By mistakenly adding "a year" to Ellwood's remarks about GDP, Roger made Ellwood sound as daft as Roger always sounds. But of course Ellwood did not say that, he's not as silly as Rogerdamus. Roger misunderstood
I hesitate to get involved in this but the difference is between a one off effect and an ongoing trend. So, it was initially claimed that the UK would suffer a one off hit as a result of Brexit that would mean any growth going forward would be from a lower base. That didn't happen although there was some currency volatility.
The arguement then evolved to the proposition that what we have suffered was a permanent dimunition in our terms of trade with the result that future growth would be somewhere between 0.2% and 0.4% a year less resulting in our GDP in 10 years time being something like 6% less. As that was a permanently reduced income we would be suffering that from that point forward each year. There are models which show that if you build that assumption in but so far there is no credible evidence that this is happening in the real world. The fact that the UK had higher growth than the EU with that last year is only consistent with that if you think that we would have exceeded the norm by an even bigger margin if we had stayed in. Possible but unlikely.
The years since we left have been far too extraordinary to reach a concluded view on this matter yet. It is possible that such an effect will become visible over time. But the traditional assumption of economic models, ceteris paribus, is frankly absurd because it assumes that no compensating action will be taken or, more accurately, does not allow any such action to count as a compensating figure.
To take a simple example good or bad economic management in this country will have a much larger effect over the period than any alleged diminution in the terms of trade. We should be focusing on that, as I have said already many times this morning.
I disagree that Brexit will have a permanent effect on GDP growth but I do think that it will have and indeed already has had a permanent effect on the level of GDP, and that permanent level effect will occur gradually over a period of time so will show up as a temporary effect on GDP growth. Whether you approach this question from first principles using an economic model, compare the UK's recent performance to a counterfactual using comparable countries, or simply eyeball a chart of GDP, you get a similar answer. Of course there is a lot of noise from Covid and nothing in economics is ever certain, but the view that Brexit has had a measurable negative effect on the level of GDP is the mainstream one among people who are paid to look at these things. This discussion is entirely separate from the one we are having with @Leon, which simply stems from his inability to admit that he got something wrong.
I suspect there will be a small year on year effect on GDP growth for many years - ie the UK economy will continue to grow at a slower rate, or fall at a faster rate, than it would otherwise do because of a sharply reduced level of business investment (around 25%). Companies will close or reduce operations in the UK without replacing them at the same level.
So Javid said the NHS was a "Blockbuster healthcare system in an age of Netflix".
That makes much more sense. Has the government spokesperson fucked it up or has the journalist transcribed to wrong?
Right that makes much more sense. And the spokesperson quoted in the article makes sense too.
Asked what he meant by the Blockbuster comment, the spokesman said: “I think he was effectively making the point that some of the structures and systems within the healthcare system were designed for a different age and they’ve not been suitably updated over the years, and that coming out of the pandemic, it was no longer an option effectively to stick with the status quo.”
It seems "AdamBienkov" was not giving a fair representation of the conversation even just using HuffPo as a source. What a shock.
Its quite a complicated picture actually and, like everything else, distorted by Brexit. The first year reduced alcohol consumption from off licences overall by about 8%. Year 2, lockdown, meant it increased by 17.5%. Hard to draw a conclusion on that. What this latest study suggests is that even if overall consumption is reduced (probably a good thing) consumption by those most at risk is not because they will give alcohol a higher priority and sacrifice other consumption for it.
So is it working? Hard to say, but it is a long way from a silver bullet and other strategies are needed to supplement it with the more vulnerable groups.
I think that's fair enough. The jakies will need special attention.
I have typed and retyped a comment on this leaflet about five times now and deleted it each time. I can't find the words to express how cluelessly counter-productive it is.
Yes it's ghastly. The LDs are woeful, but the level of Tory criticism makes them look good.
The term "Red Wall" was coined in August 2019. So it had nowt to do with how anywhere voted some months later than that. It originally referred to the continuous line of Labour constituencies roughly straddling the M62. So. A specific geographical entity. As such it had some utility as a shorthand. The trouble now is it is used by folk of all stripes to refer to their own cherry picked definition of seats to prove whichever political point they are trying to make at the time. It's as good as useless if no one can agree what it is.
Further to this. It had nowt to do with Brexit vote either. This bloc isn't the most Leavey bit of the country. That's the Midlands and East Coast. Indeed. It contains the very Remainy cities of Liverpool and Manchester. It referred to a specific region of solid Labour strength.
On topic, I think this is a good tactic by the Tories. Everyone knows the LDs are the main risk so i don’t see any downside with prioritising on the LD threat (if anything, it might get some in Labour complaining they aren’t being taken seriously). It’s also the sorts of claims that forces an opponent to answer - who can let the claim they are soft on child sex offences go unanswered? I’d also expect the Tories to start highlighting Davey’s comments about ‘what exactly is a woman’
Is the Conservatives' pretend-LibDem leaflet due to David Canzini? Does anyone know if this is a common campaigning technique down under?
Given that Blockbuster is a fondly remembered but very much defunct video rental store, saying that the PM will create a 'blockbuster health system in the age of netflix' is quite damning. What next, a Kays catalogue NHS in an age of Amazon?
It’s “blockbuster” with a small ‘b’, so he just means “very good”.
Or, for that matter, it means "something that kills Germans and other Continentals". It's hard to tell with Brexiters.
Final thought on this GDP conversation, lets switch to another flow example - petrol is about 50p a litre more expensive than it was previously.
That doesn't mean it that the first litre I buy is 50p more expensive, then the rest return to the same price, it means every litre is 50p more expensive.
If GDP takes a 4% hit then that means every year's GDP is 4% lower unless something changes that in the future, not just this years, just as every litre is 50p more expensive not just the first one.
If that doesn't explain it to you Leon, I don't know what else can. Have fun everybody.
So you should say "each time I buy it, petrol is 50p more expensive" and, of course, everyone would understand you mean there has been just one price rise of 50p which you moan about EACH time you go to the Esso garage. No one, BUT NO ONE, would foolishly mIsinterpret your words and think OMG, PETROL IS GOING UP 50P A LITRE PRACTICALLY EVERY WEEK, @BartholomewRoberts TOLD ME!
Good god. That is a flow measured in litres so 50p a litre is accurate.
GDP is a flow measured in years, so a year is accurate.
We have two very sound economists on here. One who sleeps with the angels* the other who doesn't but I've just had a very enlightening lesson as I followed Bartholomew and OnlyLivingBoy trying patiently to explain some basics to Leon.
To be fair the subtlety of GDP and GDP per annum was something I also didn't understand but unlike Leon who was last seen still arguing the point at least I do now!
* A lefty
As we said, GDP is a flow and trying to understand it and its nuances properly is like the economic equivalent of fluid dynamics, difficult but not that interesting to most people.
Except, Ellwood did not say "a year". I was right
If Roger hadn't added that "a year", coz he misheard (or misunderstood?), then there would have been no argument and none of us would have wasted fifteen bloody hours
Have we taken a permanent hit of 4% to our economic output? Quite possibly. Brexit is a drag. Tho it is extremely hard to be precise because of huge confounding factors, namely Plague and War
He didn't need to say "a year" because it is tautologically redundant.
Just as the words I just used, all tautologies are redundant.
Arguably adding "each year" clarifies the statement as it indicates that the stated effect is permanent rather than a one-off. I think Leon's confusion stems from a failure to appreciate that GDP is a flow concept like income, not a stock concept like wealth. This is a mistake made by a surprisingly large number of people. The level of basic economic knowledge, and indeed basic numeracy, in this country is shocking sometimes. In my more charitable moments I imagine that this is probably why the PM keeps lying about things - he genuinely has no concept of numbers. I wonder what his highest STEM qualification is?
Continuously saying "Look here, I'm an economist!" does not make you right
Adding the deeply misleading and absurd phrase "a year" to Ellwood's quite plausible (tho highly contentious) claim that we have suffered a permanent reduction of 4% in GDP , thanks to Brexit, turned Ellwood's remark into a statement that we are losing 4% a year, every year
This is fun!
This exchange is starting to make me think about the wrestling a pig quotation. But I will try again. GDP is a flow variable. If it is permanently 4% lower than it would have been otherwise then it is 4% lower *every year* versus that counterfactual. Do you disagree with the statement above?
Again, I'm talking about English, not economics. Nobody talks about GDP like this in terms of loss or gain. No one adds the words "a year" because it is misleading, and it is construed as a further, additional loss. Which is why Ellwood didn't say it
Put it another way. If you lose a leg in 2018, your ability to run around is permanently impaired by, say, 40%. Every year after 2018 that will be true. 40% impairment. Yet no one in this situation says "I break a leg every year"
Two heavy by-election defeats coming: in both Red Wall and Blue Wall. If tory MPs didn't have the gumption to administer the coup de grace, the voters will.
A right-left sucker punch that would have made Muhammed Ali proud.
Wakefield is red wall ie a normally Labour Leave Northern or Midlands or Welsh seat that went Tory in 2019.
Tiverton and Honiton however isn't really blue wall ie a normally Tory Remain seat in the Home Counties which the LDs should see as a top target eg Chesham and Amersham. It should demographically as a Tory Leave seat be as strong Tory as Labour Remain seats are still strong Labour
I am really, really, really, looking forward to your confidence about Boris being shown to fail at the next General Election. You are in for a complete shock.
In the meantime, the idea that Tiverton & Honiton is not Blue Wall is an absolute joke. Seriously. Even in the 1997 New Labour landslide, it still returned a Conservative.
Tiverton & Honiton is to the Blue Wall as Liverpool Walton is to the Red Wall - a long way behind the front line.
It won't save it.
Tories wont bother turning out. It will of course revert at the GE but for the by election there is no impetus to show up
Give a new local MP 2 years to make their mark. Throw in Johnson still clinging to power like a shipwrecked sailor on a burning plank and no resolution to the energy or cost of living issues and I would not be at all surprised to see the Lib Dems retaining the seat at the next GE.
And, of course, for the record I am not pumping them up as I don't support the Lib Dems at all. It just seems complacent to think it will revert just because it is supposedly a Tory seat.
In 1993 the Tories lost Christchurch to the LDs in a by election but won it back at the 1997 general election. In 2016 the Tories lost Richmond Park to the LDs at a by election but won it back at the 2017 general election. In summer 2019 the Tories lost Brecon and Radnor to the LDs in a by election but won it back in the December general election. It often happens
Alan Beith won Berwick in a by-election in 1973, by 57 votes. The Tories didn't win it back until he stood down in 2015.
Two heavy by-election defeats coming: in both Red Wall and Blue Wall. If tory MPs didn't have the gumption to administer the coup de grace, the voters will.
A right-left sucker punch that would have made Muhammed Ali proud.
Wakefield is red wall ie a normally Labour Leave Northern or Midlands or Welsh seat that went Tory in 2019.
Tiverton and Honiton however isn't really blue wall ie a normally Tory Remain seat in the Home Counties which the LDs should see as a top target eg Chesham and Amersham. It should demographically as a Tory Leave seat be as strong Tory as Labour Remain seats are still strong Labour
I am really, really, really, looking forward to your confidence about Boris being shown to fail at the next General Election. You are in for a complete shock.
In the meantime, the idea that Tiverton & Honiton is not Blue Wall is an absolute joke. Seriously. Even in the 1997 New Labour landslide, it still returned a Conservative.
Tiverton & Honiton is to the Blue Wall as Liverpool Walton is to the Red Wall - a long way behind the front line.
It won't save it.
Tories wont bother turning out. It will of course revert at the GE but for the by election there is no impetus to show up
Give a new local MP 2 years to make their mark. Throw in Johnson still clinging to power like a shipwrecked sailor on a burning plank and no resolution to the energy or cost of living issues and I would not be at all surprised to see the Lib Dems retaining the seat at the next GE.
And, of course, for the record I am not pumping them up as I don't support the Lib Dems at all. It just seems complacent to think it will revert just because it is supposedly a Tory seat.
In 1993 the Tories lost Christchurch to the LDs in a by election but won it back at the 1997 general election. In 2016 the Tories lost Richmond Park to the LDs at a by election but won it back at the 2017 general election. In summer 2019 the Tories lost Brecon and Radnor to the LDs in a by election but won it back in the December general election. It often happens
Alan Beith won Berwick in a by-election in 1973, by 57 votes. The Tories didn't win it back until he stood down in 2015.
Berwick was also Liberal from 1935 to 1945, well before Beith won it
So Javid said the NHS was a "Blockbuster healthcare system in an age of Netflix".
That makes much more sense. Has the government spokesperson fucked it up or has the journalist transcribed to wrong?
Right that makes much more sense. And the spokesperson quoted in the article makes sense too.
Asked what he meant by the Blockbuster comment, the spokesman said: “I think he was effectively making the point that some of the structures and systems within the healthcare system were designed for a different age and they’ve not been suitably updated over the years, and that coming out of the pandemic, it was no longer an option effectively to stick with the status quo.”
It seems "AdamBienkov" was not giving a fair representation of the conversation even just using HuffPo as a source. What a shock.
That's Adam Bienkov, the "Political Editor and Correspondent [of] BylineTimes", according to his Twitter profile.
Its quite a complicated picture actually and, like everything else, distorted by Brexit. The first year reduced alcohol consumption from off licences overall by about 8%. Year 2, lockdown, meant it increased by 17.5%. Hard to draw a conclusion on that. What this latest study suggests is that even if overall consumption is reduced (probably a good thing) consumption by those most at risk is not because they will give alcohol a higher priority and sacrifice other consumption for it.
So is it working? Hard to say, but it is a long way from a silver bullet and other strategies are needed to supplement it with the more vulnerable groups.
I think that's fair enough. The jakies will need special attention.
The deaths through alcohol are, or at least should be, a major concern. As are the deaths from illegal drugs. Our policies in respect of caring for these groups are not working. I don't regard this as a party political matter. It is a national disgrace of long standing. I thought MUP was worth a go. It was never going to be enough on its own.
Tories quietly scrap controversial £2bn rail link on day of no confidence vote The Golborne Link, which would take HS2 trains on the line to Glasgow, has been formally ditched after months of speculation. Sources insisted the date was a coincidence and it had been in the diary for weeks
And it's nowhere near Scotland either. I was trying to work out where it was, near Motherwell or something? But of course it's all about connecting up, all the way down the line (so to speak). Or not when one is dealing with the Rt Hon B. Johnson PM.
Maybe someone saw "for the benefit of the union" in some bumf and thought it was about the RMT and deleted it?
Final thought on this GDP conversation, lets switch to another flow example - petrol is about 50p a litre more expensive than it was previously.
That doesn't mean it that the first litre I buy is 50p more expensive, then the rest return to the same price, it means every litre is 50p more expensive.
If GDP takes a 4% hit then that means every year's GDP is 4% lower unless something changes that in the future, not just this years, just as every litre is 50p more expensive not just the first one.
If that doesn't explain it to you Leon, I don't know what else can. Have fun everybody.
So you should say "each time I buy it, petrol is 50p more expensive" and, of course, everyone would understand you mean there has been just one price rise of 50p which you moan about EACH time you go to the Esso garage. No one, BUT NO ONE, would foolishly mIsinterpret your words and think OMG, PETROL IS GOING UP 50P A LITRE PRACTICALLY EVERY WEEK, @BartholomewRoberts TOLD ME!
Good god. That is a flow measured in litres so 50p a litre is accurate.
GDP is a flow measured in years, so a year is accurate.
So if you were describing a one-off 50p fuel-price rise to worried friends, you would say: "each time I buy it, petrol is 50p more expensive" ?
Wow, Scholz now with a very bold statement that won't survive a fact check:
"We will continue to support Ukraine with arms deliveries. Germany is doing this MORE INTENSIVELY THAN ALMOST ANYONE ELSE & will continue support as long as it's necessary to repel 🇷🇺 aggression."
(My 50 cent: Saying this in the Baltics, whose support for Ukraine in relation to GDP absolutely dwarfs Germany, sounds pretty arrogant. Also in total terms other countries have delivered more weapons; and heavy 🇩🇪 weapons still have to arrive to 🇺🇦)
Tories quietly scrap controversial £2bn rail link on day of no confidence vote The Golborne Link, which would take HS2 trains on the line to Glasgow, has been formally ditched after months of speculation. Sources insisted the date was a coincidence and it had been in the diary for weeks
Wow, Scholz now with a very bold statement that won't survive a fact check:
"We will continue to support Ukraine with arms deliveries. Germany is doing this MORE INTENSIVELY THAN ALMOST ANYONE ELSE & will continue support as long as it's necessary to repel 🇷🇺 aggression."
(My 50 cent: Saying this in the Baltics, whose support for Ukraine in relation to GDP absolutely dwarfs Germany, sounds pretty arrogant. Also in total terms other countries have delivered more weapons; and heavy 🇩🇪 weapons still have to arrive to 🇺🇦)
Does Scholz really think that talking about sending weapons deliveries to Ukraine, is a substitute for actually sending weapons to Ukraine?
The Ukranians haven’t seen any German weapons, that’s all that matters in the middle of an actual war.
The Ukrainians seem to like the self-propelled Caesar howitzers sent by France. Nothing that heavy has arrived in Ukraine from Germany.
It's such a bizarrely false statement.
You might want to check your own statement. CAESAR fires NATO standard 155mm ammuntion. As does PzH 2000 in UKraine [edit: but not direct from Germany, on further reflection, apols.].
Ok, on the by election and hold issue..... The LDs have never achieved a swing at the GE after a by election compared to the previous GE that would hold/win Tiverton next time out. Including the hellish 1990 to 1997 period nor when they were polling 20% plus as opposed to 11 to 12% Hence holding it in 2024 would utterly extraordinary.
Edit - there is an unpopular government/PM and then there is earth shattering political realignment. No sign as yet of the latter
Sorry to be rude, but the Tory candidate has those mad staring eyes which usually betoken a thyroid disorder...
In the case of Tory candidates isn't it more usually just madness ?
Surely that is a qualification for standing in the first place. Who would want to enter a career where people think its ok to boo you because you go for a meal at a place where your son is working. Sane people simply no longer apply for the post.
He was booed because he took us for fools and treated us with contempt during the lockdown.
Had his son not worked there and he’d only have popped in to use the loo, he’d have got the same treatment.
On topic, I think this is a good tactic by the Tories. Everyone knows the LDs are the main risk so i don’t see any downside with prioritising on the LD threat (if anything, it might get some in Labour complaining they aren’t being taken seriously). It’s also the sorts of claims that forces an opponent to answer - who can let the claim they are soft on child sex offences go unanswered? I’d also expect the Tories to start highlighting Davey’s comments about ‘what exactly is a woman’
Is the Conservatives' pretend-LibDem leaflet due to David Canzini? Does anyone know if this is a common campaigning technique down under?
The Coalition produced leaflets in other Parties' colours ISTR. The strange thing is, if indeed this is the blueprint, it was spectacularly unsuccessful.
I just emailed a publicity person at the Love Toy Carver's Compendium
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
IT is called "working part time because you are only paid part salary". So same productivity, in fact perhaps better because of the obvious result of cramming it into 3 days rather than waiting for it to come in.
This is truly the woke nonsense infecting the West. The BBC can't mention remarks that Muslims find "offensive" because their readers aren't grown adults capable of deciding things for themselves. Even when the "offensive remarks" are simply a factual description of the beliefs of mainstream Islam, said without any slurs or insults.
Wow, Scholz now with a very bold statement that won't survive a fact check:
"We will continue to support Ukraine with arms deliveries. Germany is doing this MORE INTENSIVELY THAN ALMOST ANYONE ELSE & will continue support as long as it's necessary to repel 🇷🇺 aggression."
(My 50 cent: Saying this in the Baltics, whose support for Ukraine in relation to GDP absolutely dwarfs Germany, sounds pretty arrogant. Also in total terms other countries have delivered more weapons; and heavy 🇩🇪 weapons still have to arrive to 🇺🇦)
Does Scholz really think that talking about sending weapons deliveries to Ukraine, is a substitute for actually sending weapons to Ukraine?
The Ukranians haven’t seen any German weapons, that’s all that matters in the middle of an actual war.
The Ukrainians seem to like the self-propelled Caesar howitzers sent by France. Nothing that heavy has arrived in Ukraine from Germany.
It's such a bizarrely false statement.
You might want to check your own statement. CAESAR fires NATO standard 155mm ammuntion. As does PzH 2000 in UKraine [edit: but not direct from Germany, on further reflection, apols.].
I believe Canada sent M777.
Several countries have provided 155mm ammunition now, IIRC.
Neither artillery or ammunition, to date, from Germany, though.
Tories quietly scrap controversial £2bn rail link on day of no confidence vote The Golborne Link, which would take HS2 trains on the line to Glasgow, has been formally ditched after months of speculation. Sources insisted the date was a coincidence and it had been in the diary for weeks
And it's nowhere near Scotland either. I was trying to work out where it was, near Motherwell or something? But of course it's all about connecting up, all the way down the line (so to speak). Or not when one is dealing with the Rt Hon B. Johnson PM.
Maybe someone saw "for the benefit of the union" in some bumf and thought it was about the RMT and deleted it?
It’ll come back as a tunnel or a teleporter or a hole in the space time continuum, all equally notafukingchanceofthathappening.
On topic, I think this leaflet represents a classic misunderstanding of how by-elections work.
It assumes people are daft, and cannot distinguish between elections. People in Tiverton & Honiton know that the Tories will remain in office regardless of the by-election. What they are doing, is casting judgment on Johnson (a protest vote - or supportive vote as the case may be), electing a "local campaigner" who will stand up for them on various issues, and highlighting whatever the big local issues are.
The best bet for the Tories is to emphasise the merits of their own candidate (and potentially any flaws with their rival), and visible things the party has done or will do for the locality. They should also probably bite the bullet on being positive about Johnson - it's a bad issue for them at the moment, but the Tory campaign completely ignoring him doesn't mean the voters will.
Being negative about Lib Dem policy works better at a General Election.
I think the leaflet makes sense as damage limitation. The Tories are trying to minimise the extent of the Lib Dem victory by keeping some supporters onside.
I'm not sure.
If the strategy is to get loyalists to turnout (which isn't crazy - there are a LOT of Tories in the constituency and many will not have flaked off) a general circulation leaflet masquerading as a Lib Dem yellow leaflet is NOT a good way to do it.
What they need to do is identify the loyalists, either by canvassing or demographics, and contact them with targeted mailing from a trusted figure - a local Council leader, Angela Browning as ex-MP if she's still about and onside, even a more popular cabinet minister - and say "Look, I know there's a temptation to stay at home for a by-election, but this is important stuff as the Liberals want to let Labour in and reverse Brexit and we can't give them that opportunity whatever your views about stories in the news and the circumstances leading to the by-election. I'm personally asking you to do this as someone you trust."
I just emailed a publicity person at the Love Toy Carver's Compendium
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
There’s been a huge increase in white-collar part time working, in the last few years. If the work can still be accomplished in three days, things aren’t particularly time-bound, and both employer and employee are happy with the arrangement - which is probably 60% work for 60% pay - then why not?
Tories quietly scrap controversial £2bn rail link on day of no confidence vote The Golborne Link, which would take HS2 trains on the line to Glasgow, has been formally ditched after months of speculation. Sources insisted the date was a coincidence and it had been in the diary for weeks
And it's nowhere near Scotland either. I was trying to work out where it was, near Motherwell or something? But of course it's all about connecting up, all the way down the line (so to speak). Or not when one is dealing with the Rt Hon B. Johnson PM.
Maybe someone saw "for the benefit of the union" in some bumf and thought it was about the RMT and deleted it?
Golborne is between Warrington and Wigan. Warrington South MP and Graham Brady at the forefront.
Tories quietly scrap controversial £2bn rail link on day of no confidence vote The Golborne Link, which would take HS2 trains on the line to Glasgow, has been formally ditched after months of speculation. Sources insisted the date was a coincidence and it had been in the diary for weeks
On topic, I think this leaflet represents a classic misunderstanding of how by-elections work.
It assumes people are daft, and cannot distinguish between elections. People in Tiverton & Honiton know that the Tories will remain in office regardless of the by-election. What they are doing, is casting judgment on Johnson (a protest vote - or supportive vote as the case may be), electing a "local campaigner" who will stand up for them on various issues, and highlighting whatever the big local issues are.
The best bet for the Tories is to emphasise the merits of their own candidate (and potentially any flaws with their rival), and visible things the party has done or will do for the locality. They should also probably bite the bullet on being positive about Johnson - it's a bad issue for them at the moment, but the Tory campaign completely ignoring him doesn't mean the voters will.
Being negative about Lib Dem policy works better at a General Election.
I think the leaflet makes sense as damage limitation. The Tories are trying to minimise the extent of the Lib Dem victory by keeping some supporters onside.
I'm not sure.
If the strategy is to get loyalists to turnout (which isn't crazy - there are a LOT of Tories in the constituency and many will not have flaked off) a general circulation leaflet masquerading as a Lib Dem yellow leaflet is NOT a good way to do it.
What they need to do is identify the loyalists, either by canvassing or demographics, and contact them with targeted mailing from a trusted figure - a local Council leader, Angela Browning as ex-MP if she's still about and onside, even a more popular cabinet minister - and say "Look, I know there's a temptation to stay at home for a by-election, but this is important stuff as the Liberals want to let Labour in and reverse Brexit and we can't give them that opportunity whatever your views about stories in the news and the circumstances leading to the by-election. I'm personally asking you to do this as someone you trust."
Your way is a lot more work and requires more feet on the ground to manage and deliver individually addressed correspondence.
The Tory leaflet is the blunderbuss approach and hopefully will be about as productive.
Tories quietly scrap controversial £2bn rail link on day of no confidence vote The Golborne Link, which would take HS2 trains on the line to Glasgow, has been formally ditched after months of speculation. Sources insisted the date was a coincidence and it had been in the diary for weeks
And it's nowhere near Scotland either. I was trying to work out where it was, near Motherwell or something? But of course it's all about connecting up, all the way down the line (so to speak). Or not when one is dealing with the Rt Hon B. Johnson PM.
Maybe someone saw "for the benefit of the union" in some bumf and thought it was about the RMT and deleted it?
Golborne is between Warrington and Wigan. Warrington South MP and Graham Brady at the forefront.
Wow, Scholz now with a very bold statement that won't survive a fact check:
"We will continue to support Ukraine with arms deliveries. Germany is doing this MORE INTENSIVELY THAN ALMOST ANYONE ELSE & will continue support as long as it's necessary to repel 🇷🇺 aggression."
(My 50 cent: Saying this in the Baltics, whose support for Ukraine in relation to GDP absolutely dwarfs Germany, sounds pretty arrogant. Also in total terms other countries have delivered more weapons; and heavy 🇩🇪 weapons still have to arrive to 🇺🇦)
I may be behind on this, but which heavy 🇬🇧 weapons are currently in 🇺🇦?
We've sent them some jury-rigged ground launched brimstone missiles, and some armoured reconnaissance vehicles. Not as heavy as the French howitzers, or the Czech/Polish T-72s, but I think that's partly because the British Army doesn't have much that it can send.
I don't think Germany has sent anything heavier than man-portable anti-tank and air-defence missiles.
This is truly the woke nonsense infecting the West. The BBC can't mention remarks that Muslims find "offensive" because their readers aren't grown adults capable of deciding things for themselves. Even when the "offensive remarks" are simply a factual description of the beliefs of mainstream Islam, said without any slurs or insults.
It is somewhat more complex, since the Hadiths in question are not recognised by all branches of Islam, IIRC.
Tories quietly scrap controversial £2bn rail link on day of no confidence vote The Golborne Link, which would take HS2 trains on the line to Glasgow, has been formally ditched after months of speculation. Sources insisted the date was a coincidence and it had been in the diary for weeks
And it's nowhere near Scotland either. I was trying to work out where it was, near Motherwell or something? But of course it's all about connecting up, all the way down the line (so to speak). Or not when one is dealing with the Rt Hon B. Johnson PM.
Maybe someone saw "for the benefit of the union" in some bumf and thought it was about the RMT and deleted it?
It’ll come back as a tunnel or a teleporter or a hole in the space time continuum, all equally notafukingchanceofthathappening.
Tories quietly scrap controversial £2bn rail link on day of no confidence vote The Golborne Link, which would take HS2 trains on the line to Glasgow, has been formally ditched after months of speculation. Sources insisted the date was a coincidence and it had been in the diary for weeks
And it's nowhere near Scotland either. I was trying to work out where it was, near Motherwell or something? But of course it's all about connecting up, all the way down the line (so to speak). Or not when one is dealing with the Rt Hon B. Johnson PM.
Maybe someone saw "for the benefit of the union" in some bumf and thought it was about the RMT and deleted it?
Golborne is between Warrington and Wigan. Warrington South MP and Graham Brady at the forefront.
Ah, I see. Only too happy to have HS2 for his own area but couldn't give a monkey's about elsewhere, whether it is having the line built over their houses or getting a connection at all.
I just emailed a publicity person at the Love Toy Carver's Compendium
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
If there's only enough work for three days a week then that's a huge productivity gain on employing someone to do it 5 days a week. Does the Love Toy Carver's Compendium have a weekly bulging sack?
Wow, Scholz now with a very bold statement that won't survive a fact check:
"We will continue to support Ukraine with arms deliveries. Germany is doing this MORE INTENSIVELY THAN ALMOST ANYONE ELSE & will continue support as long as it's necessary to repel 🇷🇺 aggression."
(My 50 cent: Saying this in the Baltics, whose support for Ukraine in relation to GDP absolutely dwarfs Germany, sounds pretty arrogant. Also in total terms other countries have delivered more weapons; and heavy 🇩🇪 weapons still have to arrive to 🇺🇦)
Does Scholz really think that talking about sending weapons deliveries to Ukraine, is a substitute for actually sending weapons to Ukraine?
The Ukranians haven’t seen any German weapons, that’s all that matters in the middle of an actual war.
The Ukrainians seem to like the self-propelled Caesar howitzers sent by France. Nothing that heavy has arrived in Ukraine from Germany.
It's such a bizarrely false statement.
You might want to check your own statement. CAESAR fires NATO standard 155mm ammuntion. As does PzH 2000 in UKraine [edit: but not direct from Germany, on further reflection, apols.].
I believe Canada sent M777.
Several countries have provided 155mm ammunition now, IIRC.
Neither artillery or ammunition, to date, from Germany, though.
This is where NATO standards come in very handy. There’s several different weapons systems out there, but they can all use the same ammo.
Two heavy by-election defeats coming: in both Red Wall and Blue Wall. If tory MPs didn't have the gumption to administer the coup de grace, the voters will.
A right-left sucker punch that would have made Muhammed Ali proud.
Wakefield is red wall ie a normally Labour Leave Northern or Midlands or Welsh seat that went Tory in 2019.
Tiverton and Honiton however isn't really blue wall ie a normally Tory Remain seat in the Home Counties which the LDs should see as a top target eg Chesham and Amersham. It should demographically as a Tory Leave seat be as strong Tory as Labour Remain seats are still strong Labour
I am really, really, really, looking forward to your confidence about Boris being shown to fail at the next General Election. You are in for a complete shock.
In the meantime, the idea that Tiverton & Honiton is not Blue Wall is an absolute joke. Seriously. Even in the 1997 New Labour landslide, it still returned a Conservative.
Tiverton & Honiton is to the Blue Wall as Liverpool Walton is to the Red Wall - a long way behind the front line.
It won't save it.
Tories wont bother turning out. It will of course revert at the GE but for the by election there is no impetus to show up
Give a new local MP 2 years to make their mark. Throw in Johnson still clinging to power like a shipwrecked sailor on a burning plank and no resolution to the energy or cost of living issues and I would not be at all surprised to see the Lib Dems retaining the seat at the next GE.
And, of course, for the record I am not pumping them up as I don't support the Lib Dems at all. It just seems complacent to think it will revert just because it is supposedly a Tory seat.
In 1993 the Tories lost Christchurch to the LDs in a by election but won it back at the 1997 general election. In 2016 the Tories lost Richmond Park to the LDs at a by election but won it back at the 2017 general election. In summer 2019 the Tories lost Brecon and Radnor to the LDs in a by election but won it back in the December general election. It often happens
Alan Beith won Berwick in a by-election in 1973, by 57 votes. The Tories didn't win it back until he stood down in 2015.
Berwick was also Liberal from 1935 to 1945, well before Beith won it
Richmond and B&R have much more recent Liberal history than that, yet you saw them fit to quote as examples.
I just emailed a publicity person at the Love Toy Carver's Compendium
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
There’s been a huge increase in white-collar part time working, in the last few years. If the work can still be accomplished in three days, things aren’t particularly time-bound, and both employer and employee are happy with the arrangement - which is probably 60% work for 60% pay - then why not?
Fair enough. I can't help thinking it shows a lack of urgency, however.
I never got these "I only work 3 days" pingbacks before Covid
I just emailed a publicity person at the Love Toy Carver's Compendium
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
If there's only enough work for three days a week then that's a huge productivity gain on employing someone to do it 5 days a week. Does the Love Toy Carver's Compendium have a weekly bulging sack?
Leon seems to be thinking of *output* - productivity being output per ££ [on one definition].
This is truly the woke nonsense infecting the West. The BBC can't mention remarks that Muslims find "offensive" because their readers aren't grown adults capable of deciding things for themselves. Even when the "offensive remarks" are simply a factual description of the beliefs of mainstream Islam, said without any slurs or insults.
It is somewhat more complex, since the Hadiths in question are not recognised by all branches of Islam, IIRC.
Bit like the Protestant vs Catholic Bible.
It is the belief of Sunni Islam, which is followed by 85% of the world's Muslims. And that is besides the point, why has the BBC determined that a simple question describing accurately the belief of Sunni Islam, without any offensive language, cannot be told to its readers? Especially when the remarks are critical to understanding the story? It's mission is to "inform and educate" and yet in its pursuit of wokery and subservience to Muslims, it won't describe the key fact.
If Frost was the latter he would be front and centre now.
It seems there must always be a noisy Frost character in the British landscape (Redwood and Cash used to serve the same purpose), just as there must always be a Farage or Piers Morgan type, and a Galloway / Corbyn character, an ultra-traditionalist Widdecombe type, and so on and so forth. All the world's a stage etc.
Two heavy by-election defeats coming: in both Red Wall and Blue Wall. If tory MPs didn't have the gumption to administer the coup de grace, the voters will.
A right-left sucker punch that would have made Muhammed Ali proud.
Wakefield is red wall ie a normally Labour Leave Northern or Midlands or Welsh seat that went Tory in 2019.
Tiverton and Honiton however isn't really blue wall ie a normally Tory Remain seat in the Home Counties which the LDs should see as a top target eg Chesham and Amersham. It should demographically as a Tory Leave seat be as strong Tory as Labour Remain seats are still strong Labour
I am really, really, really, looking forward to your confidence about Boris being shown to fail at the next General Election. You are in for a complete shock.
In the meantime, the idea that Tiverton & Honiton is not Blue Wall is an absolute joke. Seriously. Even in the 1997 New Labour landslide, it still returned a Conservative.
Tiverton & Honiton is to the Blue Wall as Liverpool Walton is to the Red Wall - a long way behind the front line.
It won't save it.
Tories wont bother turning out. It will of course revert at the GE but for the by election there is no impetus to show up
Give a new local MP 2 years to make their mark. Throw in Johnson still clinging to power like a shipwrecked sailor on a burning plank and no resolution to the energy or cost of living issues and I would not be at all surprised to see the Lib Dems retaining the seat at the next GE.
And, of course, for the record I am not pumping them up as I don't support the Lib Dems at all. It just seems complacent to think it will revert just because it is supposedly a Tory seat.
In 1993 the Tories lost Christchurch to the LDs in a by election but won it back at the 1997 general election. In 2016 the Tories lost Richmond Park to the LDs at a by election but won it back at the 2017 general election. In summer 2019 the Tories lost Brecon and Radnor to the LDs in a by election but won it back in the December general election. It often happens
Yes often it happens. And often it doesn't. Picking out 3 examples on which to base a rule is not reasonable.
In 1993 the Tories lost Newbury to the Lib Dems and failed to win it back at the next GE. In 1994 the Tories lost Eastleigh to the Lib Dems and failed to win it back at the next GE. In 1995 the Tories lost Littleborough and Saddleworth to the Lib Dems and failed to win it back at the next GE when it went Labour
There are plenty of examples going both ways so it is not, by any means, a done deal
1997 was a particularly catastrophic general election for the Conservatives though and if things really are going to be that bad for them, I think they have more to worry about than just a couple of mid-term by-elections.
If Johnson is in charge my view is they will be that bad.
I just emailed a publicity person at the Love Toy Carver's Compendium
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
There’s been a huge increase in white-collar part time working, in the last few years. If the work can still be accomplished in three days, things aren’t particularly time-bound, and both employer and employee are happy with the arrangement - which is probably 60% work for 60% pay - then why not?
Fair enough. I can't help thinking it shows a lack of urgency, however.
I never got these "I only work 3 days" pingbacks before Covid
Really? I knew quite a few people who did that ages ago, and it wasn't anything to do with WFH. It may be that firms have cut down their staffs as a result of covid, or people have moved with their feet, so it's more obvious than now, ie only one 0.6FTE rather than two 0.6FTE, so it shows. But that isn't anythign to do with it being the fault of the individual member.
I just emailed a publicity person at the Love Toy Carver's Compendium
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
There’s been a huge increase in white-collar part time working, in the last few years. If the work can still be accomplished in three days, things aren’t particularly time-bound, and both employer and employee are happy with the arrangement - which is probably 60% work for 60% pay - then why not?
Fair enough. I can't help thinking it shows a lack of urgency, however.
I never got these "I only work 3 days" pingbacks before Covid
The WFH thing is a huge threat to any nation that embraces it. The crap people can continue doing their jobs, but the good people won't be able to. Paperclips counted - tick, innovations made - none.
Tories quietly scrap controversial £2bn rail link on day of no confidence vote The Golborne Link, which would take HS2 trains on the line to Glasgow, has been formally ditched after months of speculation. Sources insisted the date was a coincidence and it had been in the diary for weeks
And it's nowhere near Scotland either. I was trying to work out where it was, near Motherwell or something? But of course it's all about connecting up, all the way down the line (so to speak). Or not when one is dealing with the Rt Hon B. Johnson PM.
Maybe someone saw "for the benefit of the union" in some bumf and thought it was about the RMT and deleted it?
It’ll come back as a tunnel or a teleporter or a hole in the space time continuum, all equally notafukingchanceofthathappening.
Tories quietly scrap controversial £2bn rail link on day of no confidence vote The Golborne Link, which would take HS2 trains on the line to Glasgow, has been formally ditched after months of speculation. Sources insisted the date was a coincidence and it had been in the diary for weeks
And it's nowhere near Scotland either. I was trying to work out where it was, near Motherwell or something? But of course it's all about connecting up, all the way down the line (so to speak). Or not when one is dealing with the Rt Hon B. Johnson PM.
Maybe someone saw "for the benefit of the union" in some bumf and thought it was about the RMT and deleted it?
Golborne is between Warrington and Wigan. Warrington South MP and Graham Brady at the forefront.
Ah, I see. Only too happy to have HS2 for his own area but couldn't give a monkey's about elsewhere, whether it is having the line built over their houses or getting a connection at all.
Here's the Warrington Guardian on the same subject.
On topic, I think this leaflet represents a classic misunderstanding of how by-elections work.
It assumes people are daft, and cannot distinguish between elections. People in Tiverton & Honiton know that the Tories will remain in office regardless of the by-election. What they are doing, is casting judgment on Johnson (a protest vote - or supportive vote as the case may be), electing a "local campaigner" who will stand up for them on various issues, and highlighting whatever the big local issues are.
The best bet for the Tories is to emphasise the merits of their own candidate (and potentially any flaws with their rival), and visible things the party has done or will do for the locality. They should also probably bite the bullet on being positive about Johnson - it's a bad issue for them at the moment, but the Tory campaign completely ignoring him doesn't mean the voters will.
Being negative about Lib Dem policy works better at a General Election.
I think the leaflet makes sense as damage limitation. The Tories are trying to minimise the extent of the Lib Dem victory by keeping some supporters onside.
I'm not sure.
If the strategy is to get loyalists to turnout (which isn't crazy - there are a LOT of Tories in the constituency and many will not have flaked off) a general circulation leaflet masquerading as a Lib Dem yellow leaflet is NOT a good way to do it.
What they need to do is identify the loyalists, either by canvassing or demographics, and contact them with targeted mailing from a trusted figure - a local Council leader, Angela Browning as ex-MP if she's still about and onside, even a more popular cabinet minister - and say "Look, I know there's a temptation to stay at home for a by-election, but this is important stuff as the Liberals want to let Labour in and reverse Brexit and we can't give them that opportunity whatever your views about stories in the news and the circumstances leading to the by-election. I'm personally asking you to do this as someone you trust."
You are probably right. I would read the leaflet and think, yeah, I would like that, let's vote LD. But I'm clearly not the target here.
Tldr: Johnson’s unserious approach may not serve us well as we head into more difficult times. It is only FPTP that is holding the conservative coalition together.
I just emailed a publicity person at the Love Toy Carver's Compendium
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
There’s been a huge increase in white-collar part time working, in the last few years. If the work can still be accomplished in three days, things aren’t particularly time-bound, and both employer and employee are happy with the arrangement - which is probably 60% work for 60% pay - then why not?
Fair enough. I can't help thinking it shows a lack of urgency, however.
I never got these "I only work 3 days" pingbacks before Covid
The WFH thing is a huge threat to any nation that embraces it. The crap people can continue doing their jobs, but the good people won't be able to. Paperclips counted - tick, innovations made - none.
I just emailed a publicity person at the Love Toy Carver's Compendium
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
There’s been a huge increase in white-collar part time working, in the last few years. If the work can still be accomplished in three days, things aren’t particularly time-bound, and both employer and employee are happy with the arrangement - which is probably 60% work for 60% pay - then why not?
Fair enough. I can't help thinking it shows a lack of urgency, however.
I never got these "I only work 3 days" pingbacks before Covid
The WFH thing is a huge threat to any nation that embraces it. The crap people can continue doing their jobs, but the good people won't be able to. Paperclips counted - tick, innovations made - none.
What nonsense. If your only measure of work completed is based on hours in the office, you are a crap organization.
Wow, Scholz now with a very bold statement that won't survive a fact check:
"We will continue to support Ukraine with arms deliveries. Germany is doing this MORE INTENSIVELY THAN ALMOST ANYONE ELSE & will continue support as long as it's necessary to repel 🇷🇺 aggression."
(My 50 cent: Saying this in the Baltics, whose support for Ukraine in relation to GDP absolutely dwarfs Germany, sounds pretty arrogant. Also in total terms other countries have delivered more weapons; and heavy 🇩🇪 weapons still have to arrive to 🇺🇦)
Does Scholz really think that talking about sending weapons deliveries to Ukraine, is a substitute for actually sending weapons to Ukraine?
The Ukranians haven’t seen any German weapons, that’s all that matters in the middle of an actual war.
The Ukrainians seem to like the self-propelled Caesar howitzers sent by France. Nothing that heavy has arrived in Ukraine from Germany.
It's such a bizarrely false statement.
You might want to check your own statement. CAESAR fires NATO standard 155mm ammuntion. As does PzH 2000 in UKraine [edit: but not direct from Germany, on further reflection, apols.].
I believe Canada sent M777.
Several countries have provided 155mm ammunition now, IIRC.
Neither artillery or ammunition, to date, from Germany, though.
This is where NATO standards come in very handy. There’s several different weapons systems out there, but they can all use the same ammo.
I wonder when the screaming about the M5 will begin. The weird 6.8mm souped up round?
Two heavy by-election defeats coming: in both Red Wall and Blue Wall. If tory MPs didn't have the gumption to administer the coup de grace, the voters will.
A right-left sucker punch that would have made Muhammed Ali proud.
Wakefield is red wall ie a normally Labour Leave Northern or Midlands or Welsh seat that went Tory in 2019.
Tiverton and Honiton however isn't really blue wall ie a normally Tory Remain seat in the Home Counties which the LDs should see as a top target eg Chesham and Amersham. It should demographically as a Tory Leave seat be as strong Tory as Labour Remain seats are still strong Labour
I am really, really, really, looking forward to your confidence about Boris being shown to fail at the next General Election. You are in for a complete shock.
In the meantime, the idea that Tiverton & Honiton is not Blue Wall is an absolute joke. Seriously. Even in the 1997 New Labour landslide, it still returned a Conservative.
It's proper full-on farming country. It has never returned anything other than a true blue tory.
Recent majorities have been 20,000 on a 60% vote share.
Red Wall seats are normally Labour seats which voted Leave and went Tory in 2019. Blue Wall seats are normally Tory seats which voted Remain and the LDs are targeting.
Tiverton and Honiton voted Leave not Remain so therefore does not fall under the definition of blue wall even if it has always voted Conservative just as Labour Remain seats do not fall under the definition of red wall.
Yes any seat of a less than popular government is vulnerable to the LDs at a by election but a general election is a different matter and if the Tories are going to hold any seat in a by election a Leave seat they won with 60% of the vote or more at the last general election is it
No, that's not what the Red Wall is.
The Red Wall is seats which demographically should have been Tory by 2017 but, for cultural/historical reasons, were still clinging to Labour.
I like the way the correct definition has been given so early in the thread.
This is truly the woke nonsense infecting the West. The BBC can't mention remarks that Muslims find "offensive" because their readers aren't grown adults capable of deciding things for themselves. Even when the "offensive remarks" are simply a factual description of the beliefs of mainstream Islam, said without any slurs or insults.
It is somewhat more complex, since the Hadiths in question are not recognised by all branches of Islam, IIRC.
Bit like the Protestant vs Catholic Bible.
It is the belief of Sunni Islam, which is followed by 85% of the world's Muslims. And that is besides the point, why has the BBC determined that a simple question describing accurately the belief of Sunni Islam, without any offensive language, cannot be told to its readers? Especially when the remarks are critical to understanding the story? It's mission is to "inform and educate" and yet in its pursuit of wokery and subservience to Muslims, it won't describe the key fact.
There's nothing "woke" at all about Islam. Or the censorship of views for the sensibilities of Muslims, or any other religion. That isn't wokeness at all.
I just emailed a publicity person at the Love Toy Carver's Compendium
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
There’s been a huge increase in white-collar part time working, in the last few years. If the work can still be accomplished in three days, things aren’t particularly time-bound, and both employer and employee are happy with the arrangement - which is probably 60% work for 60% pay - then why not?
Fair enough. I can't help thinking it shows a lack of urgency, however.
I never got these "I only work 3 days" pingbacks before Covid
The WFH thing is a huge threat to any nation that embraces it. The crap people can continue doing their jobs, but the good people won't be able to. Paperclips counted - tick, innovations made - none.
Tories quietly scrap controversial £2bn rail link on day of no confidence vote The Golborne Link, which would take HS2 trains on the line to Glasgow, has been formally ditched after months of speculation. Sources insisted the date was a coincidence and it had been in the diary for weeks
And it's nowhere near Scotland either. I was trying to work out where it was, near Motherwell or something? But of course it's all about connecting up, all the way down the line (so to speak). Or not when one is dealing with the Rt Hon B. Johnson PM.
Maybe someone saw "for the benefit of the union" in some bumf and thought it was about the RMT and deleted it?
It’ll come back as a tunnel or a teleporter or a hole in the space time continuum, all equally notafukingchanceofthathappening.
Tories quietly scrap controversial £2bn rail link on day of no confidence vote The Golborne Link, which would take HS2 trains on the line to Glasgow, has been formally ditched after months of speculation. Sources insisted the date was a coincidence and it had been in the diary for weeks
And it's nowhere near Scotland either. I was trying to work out where it was, near Motherwell or something? But of course it's all about connecting up, all the way down the line (so to speak). Or not when one is dealing with the Rt Hon B. Johnson PM.
Maybe someone saw "for the benefit of the union" in some bumf and thought it was about the RMT and deleted it?
Golborne is between Warrington and Wigan. Warrington South MP and Graham Brady at the forefront.
Ah, I see. Only too happy to have HS2 for his own area but couldn't give a monkey's about elsewhere, whether it is having the line built over their houses or getting a connection at all.
Here's the Warrington Guardian on the same subject.
I just emailed a publicity person at the Love Toy Carver's Compendium
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
There’s been a huge increase in white-collar part time working, in the last few years. If the work can still be accomplished in three days, things aren’t particularly time-bound, and both employer and employee are happy with the arrangement - which is probably 60% work for 60% pay - then why not?
Fair enough. I can't help thinking it shows a lack of urgency, however.
I never got these "I only work 3 days" pingbacks before Covid
The WFH thing is a huge threat to any nation that embraces it. The crap people can continue doing their jobs, but the good people won't be able to. Paperclips counted - tick, innovations made - none.
This is truly the woke nonsense infecting the West. The BBC can't mention remarks that Muslims find "offensive" because their readers aren't grown adults capable of deciding things for themselves. Even when the "offensive remarks" are simply a factual description of the beliefs of mainstream Islam, said without any slurs or insults.
It is somewhat more complex, since the Hadiths in question are not recognised by all branches of Islam, IIRC.
Bit like the Protestant vs Catholic Bible.
It is the belief of Sunni Islam, which is followed by 85% of the world's Muslims. And that is besides the point, why has the BBC determined that a simple question describing accurately the belief of Sunni Islam, without any offensive language, cannot be told to its readers? Especially when the remarks are critical to understanding the story? It's mission is to "inform and educate" and yet in its pursuit of wokery and subservience to Muslims, it won't describe the key fact.
There's nothing "woke" at all about Islam. Or the censorship of views for the sensibilities of Muslims, or any other religion. That isn't wokeness at all.
There is nothing woke about Islam, but censorship of inconvenient facts that embarrass designated "oppressed" groups is ABSOLUTELY woke.
I just emailed a publicity person at the Love Toy Carver's Compendium
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
There’s been a huge increase in white-collar part time working, in the last few years. If the work can still be accomplished in three days, things aren’t particularly time-bound, and both employer and employee are happy with the arrangement - which is probably 60% work for 60% pay - then why not?
Fair enough. I can't help thinking it shows a lack of urgency, however.
I never got these "I only work 3 days" pingbacks before Covid
"Urgency"? PR at some bullshit periodical isn't exactly life or death stuff. 100% of the content of that job is late stage capitalism pointless nonsense that can wait until next week.
Tories quietly scrap controversial £2bn rail link on day of no confidence vote The Golborne Link, which would take HS2 trains on the line to Glasgow, has been formally ditched after months of speculation. Sources insisted the date was a coincidence and it had been in the diary for weeks
And it's nowhere near Scotland either. I was trying to work out where it was, near Motherwell or something? But of course it's all about connecting up, all the way down the line (so to speak). Or not when one is dealing with the Rt Hon B. Johnson PM.
Maybe someone saw "for the benefit of the union" in some bumf and thought it was about the RMT and deleted it?
It’ll come back as a tunnel or a teleporter or a hole in the space time continuum, all equally notafukingchanceofthathappening.
Tories quietly scrap controversial £2bn rail link on day of no confidence vote The Golborne Link, which would take HS2 trains on the line to Glasgow, has been formally ditched after months of speculation. Sources insisted the date was a coincidence and it had been in the diary for weeks
And it's nowhere near Scotland either. I was trying to work out where it was, near Motherwell or something? But of course it's all about connecting up, all the way down the line (so to speak). Or not when one is dealing with the Rt Hon B. Johnson PM.
Maybe someone saw "for the benefit of the union" in some bumf and thought it was about the RMT and deleted it?
Golborne is between Warrington and Wigan. Warrington South MP and Graham Brady at the forefront.
Ah, I see. Only too happy to have HS2 for his own area but couldn't give a monkey's about elsewhere, whether it is having the line built over their houses or getting a connection at all.
Here's the Warrington Guardian on the same subject.
Thanks! Bit late of them to **** it up. Timing is inevitably an odd coincidence, though, given who one of the MPs is.
To complete the set. Golborne itself is in Leigh constituency. Tory. So. Three Northern Conservative seats with a massive prospect of investment and jobs. Absolutely not. Can't be having that. The very idea!!
This is truly the woke nonsense infecting the West. The BBC can't mention remarks that Muslims find "offensive" because their readers aren't grown adults capable of deciding things for themselves. Even when the "offensive remarks" are simply a factual description of the beliefs of mainstream Islam, said without any slurs or insults.
It is somewhat more complex, since the Hadiths in question are not recognised by all branches of Islam, IIRC.
Bit like the Protestant vs Catholic Bible.
It is the belief of Sunni Islam, which is followed by 85% of the world's Muslims. And that is besides the point, why has the BBC determined that a simple question describing accurately the belief of Sunni Islam, without any offensive language, cannot be told to its readers? Especially when the remarks are critical to understanding the story? It's mission is to "inform and educate" and yet in its pursuit of wokery and subservience to Muslims, it won't describe the key fact.
There's nothing "woke" at all about Islam. Or the censorship of views for the sensibilities of Muslims, or any other religion. That isn't wokeness at all.
There is nothing woke about Islam, but censorship of inconvenient facts that embarrass designated "oppressed" groups is ABSOLUTELY woke.
This is truly the woke nonsense infecting the West. The BBC can't mention remarks that Muslims find "offensive" because their readers aren't grown adults capable of deciding things for themselves. Even when the "offensive remarks" are simply a factual description of the beliefs of mainstream Islam, said without any slurs or insults.
It is somewhat more complex, since the Hadiths in question are not recognised by all branches of Islam, IIRC.
Bit like the Protestant vs Catholic Bible.
It is the belief of Sunni Islam, which is followed by 85% of the world's Muslims. And that is besides the point, why has the BBC determined that a simple question describing accurately the belief of Sunni Islam, without any offensive language, cannot be told to its readers? Especially when the remarks are critical to understanding the story? It's mission is to "inform and educate" and yet in its pursuit of wokery and subservience to Muslims, it won't describe the key fact.
There's nothing "woke" at all about Islam. Or the censorship of views for the sensibilities of Muslims, or any other religion. That isn't wokeness at all.
There is nothing woke about Islam, but censorship of inconvenient facts that embarrass designated "oppressed" groups is ABSOLUTELY woke.
New one to me. What did she say?
She repeated a fairly common trope about the age of one of the Prophet's wives - using it as an attack on Islam.
I just emailed a publicity person at the Love Toy Carver's Compendium
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
There’s been a huge increase in white-collar part time working, in the last few years. If the work can still be accomplished in three days, things aren’t particularly time-bound, and both employer and employee are happy with the arrangement - which is probably 60% work for 60% pay - then why not?
Fair enough. I can't help thinking it shows a lack of urgency, however.
I never got these "I only work 3 days" pingbacks before Covid
The WFH thing is a huge threat to any nation that embraces it. The crap people can continue doing their jobs, but the good people won't be able to. Paperclips counted - tick, innovations made - none.
LOL. This is a fundamentally wrong comment.
Do explain.
Many businesses - including those I work in - have seen an increase in productivity since people started working from home rather than a reduction. I was working from home for most of the time for years before covid and once the initial setup issues were dealt with the company bosses found people were far more responsive and they got far better results in a shorter time from people working remotely. The loss of time due to commuting alone is massive and the ability to work more flexibly has greatly improved both the morale and the productivity as measured by quicker turn around of reports.
This is real world experience rather than theoretical HR rubbish.
I just emailed a publicity person at the Love Toy Carver's Compendium
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
There’s been a huge increase in white-collar part time working, in the last few years. If the work can still be accomplished in three days, things aren’t particularly time-bound, and both employer and employee are happy with the arrangement - which is probably 60% work for 60% pay - then why not?
Fair enough. I can't help thinking it shows a lack of urgency, however.
I never got these "I only work 3 days" pingbacks before Covid
"Urgency"? PR at some bullshit periodical isn't exactly life or death stuff. 100% of the content of that job is late stage capitalism pointless nonsense that can wait until next week.
I just emailed a publicity person at the Love Toy Carver's Compendium
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
There’s been a huge increase in white-collar part time working, in the last few years. If the work can still be accomplished in three days, things aren’t particularly time-bound, and both employer and employee are happy with the arrangement - which is probably 60% work for 60% pay - then why not?
Fair enough. I can't help thinking it shows a lack of urgency, however.
I never got these "I only work 3 days" pingbacks before Covid
Facilitating part time working widens the pool of potential employees a company can attract. Benefits the employer and the employees.
And if it wasn't for part time working, we'd have even fewer GPs!
This is truly the woke nonsense infecting the West. The BBC can't mention remarks that Muslims find "offensive" because their readers aren't grown adults capable of deciding things for themselves. Even when the "offensive remarks" are simply a factual description of the beliefs of mainstream Islam, said without any slurs or insults.
It is somewhat more complex, since the Hadiths in question are not recognised by all branches of Islam, IIRC.
Bit like the Protestant vs Catholic Bible.
It is the belief of Sunni Islam, which is followed by 85% of the world's Muslims. And that is besides the point, why has the BBC determined that a simple question describing accurately the belief of Sunni Islam, without any offensive language, cannot be told to its readers? Especially when the remarks are critical to understanding the story? It's mission is to "inform and educate" and yet in its pursuit of wokery and subservience to Muslims, it won't describe the key fact.
There's nothing "woke" at all about Islam. Or the censorship of views for the sensibilities of Muslims, or any other religion. That isn't wokeness at all.
There is nothing woke about Islam, but censorship of inconvenient facts that embarrass designated "oppressed" groups is ABSOLUTELY woke.
New one to me. What did she say?
In response to the Hindu god Shiva being insulted on Indian television, she said:
“Should I start mocking claims of flying horses or the flat-earth theory as mentioned in your Quran? You are marrying a 6-year-old girl and having sex with her when she turned 9. Who did it? Prophet Muhammad. Should I start saying all these things that are mentioned in your scriptures?”
That is the full extent of the "offensive comments". All are accurate descriptions of the Koran or accepted Hadith in Sunni Islam.
I just emailed a publicity person at the Love Toy Carver's Compendium
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
There’s been a huge increase in white-collar part time working, in the last few years. If the work can still be accomplished in three days, things aren’t particularly time-bound, and both employer and employee are happy with the arrangement - which is probably 60% work for 60% pay - then why not?
Fair enough. I can't help thinking it shows a lack of urgency, however.
I never got these "I only work 3 days" pingbacks before Covid
The WFH thing is a huge threat to any nation that embraces it. The crap people can continue doing their jobs, but the good people won't be able to. Paperclips counted - tick, innovations made - none.
LOL. This is a fundamentally wrong comment.
Do explain.
Many businesses - including those I work in - have seen an increase in productivity since people started working from home rather than a reduction. I was working from home for most of the time for years before covid and once the initial setup issues were dealt with the company bosses found people were far more responsive and they got far better results in a shorter time from people working remotely. The loss of time due to commuting alone is massive and the ability to work more flexibly has greatly improved both the morale and the productivity as measured by quicker turn around of reports.
This is real world experience rather than theoretical HR rubbish.
Ok well that's very good. My experience is the opposite though. My team's productivity dropped by I'd guess 50% when working from home. I personally found myself to be pretty hopeless.
For me WFH works amazingly well sometimes - such as when you just need to focus on some particular thing, but I think it's awful in general.
Our Emma has apparently retired from the Nottingham Open?
Whoever knew there even was such a thing?
Tennis fans. It's a fairly important warmup for Wimbledon, since the grass court season has been reduced to the square root of bugger all.
We have three weeks between the French and Wimbledon. It used to be two.
I'm not a particular tennis fan, but I have been to the Nottingham Open. All I can remember about it was that it was bloody cold - the sort of cold you can only get in June, because you're doing an activity scheduled for warm weather. IIRC, other warmups for Wimbledon used to (and may still) include Queen's club, Brighton (I think?) and Manchester, though the latter has surely long fallen by the wayside.
This is truly the woke nonsense infecting the West. The BBC can't mention remarks that Muslims find "offensive" because their readers aren't grown adults capable of deciding things for themselves. Even when the "offensive remarks" are simply a factual description of the beliefs of mainstream Islam, said without any slurs or insults.
It is somewhat more complex, since the Hadiths in question are not recognised by all branches of Islam, IIRC.
Bit like the Protestant vs Catholic Bible.
It is the belief of Sunni Islam, which is followed by 85% of the world's Muslims. And that is besides the point, why has the BBC determined that a simple question describing accurately the belief of Sunni Islam, without any offensive language, cannot be told to its readers? Especially when the remarks are critical to understanding the story? It's mission is to "inform and educate" and yet in its pursuit of wokery and subservience to Muslims, it won't describe the key fact.
There's nothing "woke" at all about Islam. Or the censorship of views for the sensibilities of Muslims, or any other religion. That isn't wokeness at all.
There is nothing woke about Islam, but censorship of inconvenient facts that embarrass designated "oppressed" groups is ABSOLUTELY woke.
New one to me. What did she say?
In response to the Hindu god Shiva being insulted on Indian television, she said:
“Should I start mocking claims of flying horses or the flat-earth theory as mentioned in your Quran? You are marrying a 6-year-old girl and having sex with her when she turned 9. Who did it? Prophet Muhammad. Should I start saying all these things that are mentioned in your scriptures?”
That is the full extent of the "offensive comments". All are accurate descriptions of the Koran or accepted Hadith in Sunni Islam.
In response to this, eight countries have lodged complaints to the Indian government and a further three have called Indian ambassadors to register their protest. And the BBC won't actually report what was said.
I just emailed a publicity person at the Love Toy Carver's Compendium
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
There’s been a huge increase in white-collar part time working, in the last few years. If the work can still be accomplished in three days, things aren’t particularly time-bound, and both employer and employee are happy with the arrangement - which is probably 60% work for 60% pay - then why not?
Fair enough. I can't help thinking it shows a lack of urgency, however.
I never got these "I only work 3 days" pingbacks before Covid
The WFH thing is a huge threat to any nation that embraces it. The crap people can continue doing their jobs, but the good people won't be able to. Paperclips counted - tick, innovations made - none.
LOL. This is a fundamentally wrong comment.
Do explain.
Many businesses - including those I work in - have seen an increase in productivity since people started working from home rather than a reduction. I was working from home for most of the time for years before covid and once the initial setup issues were dealt with the company bosses found people were far more responsive and they got far better results in a shorter time from people working remotely. The loss of time due to commuting alone is massive and the ability to work more flexibly has greatly improved both the morale and the productivity as measured by quicker turn around of reports.
This is real world experience rather than theoretical HR rubbish.
Ok well that's very good. My experience is the opposite though. My team's productivity dropped by I'd guess 50% when working from home. I personally found myself to be pretty hopeless.
For me WFH works amazingly well sometimes - such as when you just need to focus on some particular thing, but I think it's awful in general.
My experience has been that there have been times when I'm more productive and times when I'm less. Overall, it's a wash - but the lack of human contact is a major problem.
I just emailed a publicity person at the Love Toy Carver's Compendium
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
There’s been a huge increase in white-collar part time working, in the last few years. If the work can still be accomplished in three days, things aren’t particularly time-bound, and both employer and employee are happy with the arrangement - which is probably 60% work for 60% pay - then why not?
Fair enough. I can't help thinking it shows a lack of urgency, however.
I never got these "I only work 3 days" pingbacks before Covid
The WFH thing is a huge threat to any nation that embraces it. The crap people can continue doing their jobs, but the good people won't be able to. Paperclips counted - tick, innovations made - none.
LOL. This is a fundamentally wrong comment.
Do explain.
Many businesses - including those I work in - have seen an increase in productivity since people started working from home rather than a reduction. I was working from home for most of the time for years before covid and once the initial setup issues were dealt with the company bosses found people were far more responsive and they got far better results in a shorter time from people working remotely. The loss of time due to commuting alone is massive and the ability to work more flexibly has greatly improved both the morale and the productivity as measured by quicker turn around of reports.
This is real world experience rather than theoretical HR rubbish.
It depends on the industry - some work naturally falls into "one person working alone, for sustained periods" working.
Comments
To the East Politics group, Being a Modern Decent German requires good relations with Russia. Among other things. Because fighting Russia = The Past.
So supplying weapons to a country fighting Russia involves a kind of cognitive dissonance. The logical, practical side of the brain says that "We must defend against aggression", but the instinct "We must have peace with Russia" keeps popping up.
When you add a dose of German Exceptionalism and What Is Good For Germany is Good For Europe into the mix, you get... well, Scholz.
Heh.
https://apps.apple.com/us/app/f-sim-space-shuttle
It's supposed to be a fairly good physics model.
So Javid said the NHS was a "Blockbuster healthcare system in an age of Netflix".
That makes much more sense. Has the government spokesperson fucked it up or has the journalist transcribed to wrong?
Brexit could have an impact on the long run growth rate through lower population growth, but I am ignoring that because GDP per capita is probably more what we should be focusing on.
So you should say "each time I buy it, petrol is 50p more expensive" and, of course, everyone would understand you mean there has been just one price rise of 50p which you moan about EACH time you go to the Esso garage. No one, BUT NO ONE, would foolishly mIsinterpret your words and think OMG, PETROL IS GOING UP 50P A LITRE PRACTICALLY EVERY WEEK, @BartholomewRoberts TOLD ME!
Not impossible but extremely unlikely unless there us a 1997 style implosion
If Frost was the latter he would be front and centre now.
The Golborne Link, which would take HS2 trains on the line to Glasgow, has been formally ditched after months of speculation. Sources insisted the date was a coincidence and it had been in the diary for weeks
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-quietly-scrap-controversial-2bn-27167131
Asked what he meant by the Blockbuster comment, the spokesman said: “I think he was effectively making the point that some of the structures and systems within the healthcare system were designed for a different age and they’ve not been suitably updated over the years, and that coming out of the pandemic, it was no longer an option effectively to stick with the status quo.”
It seems "AdamBienkov" was not giving a fair representation of the conversation even just using HuffPo as a source. What a shock.
It referred to a specific region of solid Labour strength.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockbuster_bomb
GDP is a flow measured in years, so a year is accurate.
The Tories didn't win it back until he stood down in 2015.
Why did anyone take his tweet seriously?
Maybe someone saw "for the benefit of the union" in some bumf and thought it was about the RMT and deleted it?
It's such a bizarrely false statement.
Doubtless ones who also want "jobs and investment" in their constituencies.
No. Not like that!
The LDs have never achieved a swing at the GE after a by election compared to the previous GE that would hold/win Tiverton next time out. Including the hellish 1990 to 1997 period nor when they were polling 20% plus as opposed to 11 to 12%
Hence holding it in 2024 would utterly extraordinary.
Edit - there is an unpopular government/PM and then there is earth shattering political realignment. No sign as yet of the latter
I got this reply:
"Thank you for your email. My regular work days are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday, and I will reply to your message as soon as possible then."
WTF? So this means he/she now only works 3 days a week. That isn't WFH, that's a 40% drop in productivity. Or am I missing something?
Had his son not worked there and he’d only have popped in to use the loo, he’d have got the same treatment.
The strange thing is, if indeed this is the blueprint, it was spectacularly unsuccessful.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-61701908
This is truly the woke nonsense infecting the West. The BBC can't mention remarks that Muslims find "offensive" because their readers aren't grown adults capable of deciding things for themselves. Even when the "offensive remarks" are simply a factual description of the beliefs of mainstream Islam, said without any slurs or insults.
Several countries have provided 155mm ammunition now, IIRC.
Neither artillery or ammunition, to date, from Germany, though.
If the strategy is to get loyalists to turnout (which isn't crazy - there are a LOT of Tories in the constituency and many will not have flaked off) a general circulation leaflet masquerading as a Lib Dem yellow leaflet is NOT a good way to do it.
What they need to do is identify the loyalists, either by canvassing or demographics, and contact them with targeted mailing from a trusted figure - a local Council leader, Angela Browning as ex-MP if she's still about and onside, even a more popular cabinet minister - and say "Look, I know there's a temptation to stay at home for a by-election, but this is important stuff as the Liberals want to let Labour in and reverse Brexit and we can't give them that opportunity whatever your views about stories in the news and the circumstances leading to the by-election. I'm personally asking you to do this as someone you trust."
Warrington South MP and Graham Brady at the forefront.
The Tory leaflet is the blunderbuss approach and hopefully will be about as productive.
I don't think Germany has sent anything heavier than man-portable anti-tank and air-defence missiles.
Bit like the Protestant vs Catholic Bible.
Whoever knew there even was such a thing?
Ah, I see. Only too happy to have HS2 for his own area but couldn't give a monkey's about elsewhere, whether it is having the line built over their houses or getting a connection at all.
Does the Love Toy Carver's Compendium have a weekly bulging sack?
I never got these "I only work 3 days" pingbacks before Covid
I believe that makes me an influencer now.
https://www.warringtonguardian.co.uk/news/20191712.controversial-hs2-golborne-link-scrapped-government/
https://unherd.com/2022/06/did-boris-kill-conservatism/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3&mc_cid=58a9c8822f&mc_eid=836634e34b
Tldr: Johnson’s unserious approach may not serve us well as we head into more difficult times. It is only FPTP that is holding the conservative coalition together.
That isn't wokeness at all.
Absolutely not. Can't be having that.
The very idea!!
This is real world experience rather than theoretical HR rubbish.
And if it wasn't for part time working, we'd have even fewer GPs!
“Should I start mocking claims of flying horses or the flat-earth theory as mentioned in your Quran? You are marrying a 6-year-old girl and having sex with her when she turned 9. Who did it? Prophet Muhammad. Should I start saying all these things that are mentioned in your scriptures?”
That is the full extent of the "offensive comments". All are accurate descriptions of the Koran or accepted Hadith in Sunni Islam.
https://twitter.com/colken16/status/1534158466251735041?s=21&t=qhWHEcQpviHMFj68BSQbiw
For me WFH works amazingly well sometimes - such as when you just need to focus on some particular thing, but I think it's awful in general.
IIRC, other warmups for Wimbledon used to (and may still) include Queen's club, Brighton (I think?) and Manchester, though the latter has surely long fallen by the wayside.
Others are more continuously collaborative.
It's almost as if one size doesn't fit all.