The Tories go on the offensive in T&H – politicalbetting.com

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The Tories go on the offensive in T&H – politicalbetting.com

The above is an anti-LD leaflet being put out by the Tories as they try to save Tiverton and Honiton in the Westminster by-election that takes place on June 23rd.

Read the full story here

Mexicanpete

Like the LDs?

ThePoliticalParty

2nd like no confidence

MattW

3rd Rhymes with someone's a t*rd.

Time to water the garden.

Gardenwalker

Sorry to be rude, but the Tory candidate has those mad staring eyes which usually betoken a thyroid disorder.

And the Lib Dem candidate looks like a fraudulent vicar. Something in the teeth.

None of the candidates actually pass muster.

StuartDickson

- “The Lib Dems are more focused on their political interests than the issues that matter”

Stunning lack of Con self-awareness there.

algarkirk

edit

Heathener

Two heavy by-election defeats coming: in both Red Wall and Blue Wall. If tory MPs didn't have the gumption to administer the coup de grace, the voters will.

A right-left sucker punch that would have made Muhammed Ali proud.

Theuniondivvie

‘Go on the’ surplus to requirements in headline.

OnlyLivingBoy

Shock horror. An opposition party that sees ousting the government as its main priority. How very dare they! Don't they know that the Tories have a divine right to rule?

BartholomewRoberts

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

Heathener said:

Leon said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

DavidL said:

Keystone said:

Roger said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

moonshine said:

Quite amazing to me there are so many Tory MPs too thick to realise the obvious. Namely, that excluding the weirdos, everyone wants to move on from the Brexit wars and no one wants to be reminded about covid for the rest of their lives.

It’s not fully his fault but Boris is the living embodiment of Brexit and Covid. Every time you see his face, your brain instinctively goes back to those two things. Ugh.

They are not the only politicians too thick to realise this of course. Ed Davey and Kier Starmer suffer from the same brain malfunction, with their campaign literature and public statements still variously dominated by “we opposed Brexit” and partygate.

Sod off the whole miserable lot of you. We all need to move on.

Thats already happened. The only mention we get of Brexit now is the need to make it work. Hard to ignore the thing when it is directly impacting people via its role in the CoL crisis. So its about solutions, not trying to replay the war.

Unfortunately for all of us, the only solutions anyone has come up with are either a further Brexit atop the Brexit, or to dilute the Brexit we have. Perhaps they are the only solutions that exist.

And as I just posted in response to Scott, those are the only solutions in town - a classic Euro fudge. The Good News is that the big part of that is already in place. We have ceded control of standards to the EU. We have unilaterally demolished customs checks on our side.

When you are both absolutely aligned and will remain so by default, it makes an agreement recognising this reality much easier than if both sides were sabre rattling beforehand. This government have given up their positions on customs and divergence. The only thing that matters is free movement and a fudge can be found there as well in exchange for "spiteful" EU nations like Spain abandoning the 3rd country restrictions on British economic migrants which we demanded.

I just heard Tobias Elwood saying that Brexit was costing us 4% of GDP a year and this was unsustainable. If this is now accepted then isn't it time one of the parties started facing the reality that either rejoining or joining one of the allied organisations is not just an option anymore its compulsory. It was said yesterday that the French and German growth figures are dwarfing ours. Is anyone adding 2+2 and making 4 yet?.

I don't think pointing at individual growth points is really valid. You'd need to look at manufacturing vs services, and also look at exports Vs trade within the EU-27.

There is a much larger discussion to be had about the UK's future economic direction.

But we have now wasted more than 6 years with all this Brexit nonsense when there were more pressing things to focus on.

History will not judge this period kindly

People continue to insist that Brexit is costing ever more absurd levels of GDP. It is plainly nonsense on several levels. Firstly, there are always far more significant effects on our economic performance. In the last couple of years we have had Covid, Ukraine, Russian sanctions and international disruption on trade from China. Identifying any underlying effect from something as trivial as Brexit in the face of all that noise is just impossible. Secondly, the noise is repeated in many other countries as well. So, any minor reduction in trade with the UK is dwarfed by the effect of economic sanctions with Russia for most EU countries. Demand in these countries has been significantly impacted, reducing the market for exports. Thirdly, as others have already pointed out, the UK is performing at least as well as the EU's major economies in highly distorted times. If the Brexit effects were anything like 4% GPD what they are saying is that we would be outgrowing these countries by absurd numbers.

But there is something in the distraction point. We are not addressing our underlying problems in productivity, investment, training and infrastructure. The potential wins in these areas again exceed any Brexit effect by an order of magnitude or more but they are rarely discussed. One of my many disappointments with this government is that levelling up, which could have started to address these problems, especially the last of them, has proved more of a soundbite than a policy.

This government has no clear purpose. It has no clear agenda. It has no focus on what can be done at the margins as we are buffeted by inflation, sanctions, Chinese disruption and many other factors. It is all about surviving the week. Not since the latter days of Gordon Brown have we had such chaos.

Roger is fundamentally clueless about economics.

"Brexit is costing us 4% of GDP every year". What even does this mean?? That without Brexit we'd be growing at 8% this year, much faster than China? Or that our GDP is shrinking 4% a year, so we are experiencing a devastating recession every year, which we clearly are not?

There should be a PB Threshold of Stupidity which, if you cross, you are suspended from PB for a week. I suggest Roger gets a 38 week ban

There is a difference between GDP and GDP Growth. Probably Roger is talking about the former and you the latter.

There is no way of interpreting Roger's remark without concluding it is witless

There you go again. You just can't help but going Ad Hominem, can you? With everyone.

Can't you just try and stop yourself? Your point about GDP may have been really valid but you chase people off this board, like Alastair Meekes, by being so flaming personally nasty all the time.

I didn't say Roger is witless. I said his remark is. And it is. There is no way Britain is "losing 4% of GDP every year because Brexit". So, no it was not "ad hominem"

Besides: what do you expect me to do? Ignore an obviously false statement out of politeness? Say "Well done Rog on your great insight", even though it is clearly and foolishly wrong?

If I say something as daft as that - and it hardly unknown - please feel free to call my remark witless. I won't complain, I will thank you for pointing out my egregious error

And I'm sure if you asked Mr Meeks why he left PB, his answer won't be "because people chased me off"

An economist writes: Actually Roger is absolutely right and you have misunderstood what he has said. Since I don't engage in ad hominem remarks I won't call you witless.
GDP is a flow concept. It measures the amount of output (or equivalently spending or income, the three are theoretically equivalent) produced in a given economy over a given period of time. The statement that Brexit has cost us x% of GDP per year (I won't comment on whether x is 4 or some other number as estimates differ, but FWIW 4 seems reasonable and is in the ballpark of the BOE and OBR estimates) means that the level of GDP is 4% below what it would have been if we hadn't Brexited, every year or every quarter. It doesn't imply lower GDP growth for ever, simply a permanently lower level of GDP vs this counterfactual.
I hope this helps.

lol. So we Brexited six years ago and we've lost (on average?) 4% GDP a year and our economy is now about 20% smaller than it was in 2016? Crumbs!

Or is this from 2020 when we actually Brexited so we've lost 4% and counting, except that of course Covid intervened in 2020 and we lost about 10% of the economy due to that, then regained it, and how anyone can perceive actual Brexit effects in the middle of a global plague and now a war, fuck knows


And of course Roger said we are "losing 4% of GDP a year". Which means - in normal, sane English - 4% every year. If I say I earn about £30k a year, I mean every year. Otherwise I would specifiy "THIS year"

Apart from that, your comment is mere sophistry. I will refrain from calling it witless, in case I upset @Heathener

Again I think you are misunderstanding how GDP works. Saying GDP is 4% lower every year than it would have been otherwise does not involve the economy shrinking by 4% every year. Since GDP is a measure of national income, the simplest analogy is with personal income. Imagine you lose your job and your new job pays 4% less than your old job. Every year you are earning 4% less than you would have been if you stayed in your old job. This doesn't mean that your pay is going down by 4% every year.

This is my last comment on this, as I have dildos to attend to, and chisels lying idle

Let's go back to Roger's original remark

"Brexit is costing us 4% GDP a year"

A year, in ordinary English, means "every year", as I have said. "I earn £20k a year." "I drink thirty gallons of wine a year". "I go abroad 200 times a year". It clearly means EVERY year, not THIS year, let alone THIS YEAR BUT NEVER AGAIN

There are, in that light, only two common sense interpretations of Roger's comment. The first is: Brexit is costing us 4% of Britain's total economic output, our GDP, which has shrunk 4% every year since Brexit, and will likely continue to do so. But that is nonsense, as we all know

The other more charitable interpretation is that by Brexiting we are losing 4% potential growth, an opportunity cost, every year - and that without Brexit GDP growth would be, say, annually 7% rather than its present ~3%. But again, that's bollocks, for multiple reasons (and how would we even know in the context of Covid and war?)

I conclude that Roger's remark was witless. But I am sure he is a lovely guy, and he is very good on movies, and tells some cracking anecdotes, when he is in the mood, so peace to all

Good day

I don't think you understand this stuff at all. Roger was referring to the level of GDP not the growth rate. Whether you agree that the number is 4% or not is a different question, but he expressed it completely clearly and accurately. Go back and read my explanations of this, and if that doesn't work go and read up on GDP somewhere else. And stop calling people witless when you are speaking from a position of ignorance.

I went back to the original quote that Roger sourced. Here it is. Tobias Ellwood, Tory MP



"Political distance from Brussels has been achieved. This is not up for question. However, economically speaking, there is vast room for improvement. The OBR calculates, in its current form, that Brexit is reducing our GDP by four per cent. This compares to around 1.5 per cent caused by Covid."


https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/we-can-upgrade-brexit-and-ease-the-cost-of-living-by-going-back-to-the-single-market


Gosh. No mention of "a year". No mention of this year next year any year. No arse-wobblingly stupid YEAR thing

Just "4%"

A bald total figure. He surely means total lost potential growth. He didn't say we are "losing 4% GDP a year" because that would be RIDIC. Roger misheard

You're categorically wrong Leon.

If it has cost us 4% this year, then it will also cost us 4% next year and the year after, unless we find a way to regain the lost growth.

I think Elwood is completely wrong on this matter personally and the statistics are bullshit made from flawed models rather than reality, but adding the words "a year" is redundant and has been done for dramatic effect, they are correct.

My objection is to the 4% claim which I think is unmitigated and hubristic bullshit, rather than a year claim which is just redundant language used for dramatic effect.

lol. Ellwood didn't say "a year". Roger misheard. I am right

Since I know you are but a humble flint knapper, I would recommend that you get in touch with any writer friends you may have, if you know any acquaintances involved with writing. People don't always need to use the same words, to mean the same thing.

What Roger said and what Ellwood said mean exactly the same thing, but Roger added redundant words to dramatic effect. That is a trick writers use, but it isn't wrong.

If we have permanently lost 4% then we have lost 4% a year, our growth is not down 4% every year, but our GDP is, since GDP and GDP growth are not the same thing. Yes GDP is an annual flow figure that is what it means even if the extra words that Roger added were a redundant truism added to an already flawed claim..

dixiedean

Not convinced T+H is lost quite yet.
But, we are approaching the stage where anything the government says is reflexively discounted as false and unpopular, purely because of who is saying it

MoonRabbit

MoonRabbit said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Pulpstar said:

The Tories have a huge problem. A large chunk of Tory support backs Boris. That goes if they ditch him, this tends to be ex Lab hard-core brexiteers I think.
But they're going to lose a large chunk of soft remain fiscally centre right voters that Cameron picked up and kept through the Corbyn era if he stays. Its insoluble, at least in time for the next GE.

They need to find someone who would be seen as a unity candidate, or perhaps a unity pairing. Brexit is finished, over with. What people did or said they thought on that subject is no longer relevant. They need to find someone who can heal wounds and demonstrate competence and has an air of trustworthiness .

I generally agree with what you are both saying. Brexit isn’t finished and in the past. Soon as by election comes up PB rightly turns to the 2016 stats. It’s still playing in UK elections, some places much more than others.

One big part of Boris appeal in 2019 election was his promise to unite the divided electorate and more the country on from Brexit division. He hasn’t. If anything Remainia are even more pissed off at the Tories about it. Tell me I am wrong.

But to be fair to Boris, how exactly does he achieve that promise? How does a PM actively move the electorate on from Brexit division?

And their is a second way Brexit plays big in our politics today. Quite a few posters to PB suggested Boris government are not the best to actually make Brexit work. The argument is, where there needs to be flexibility to hone it in a way that works better and brings everyone inside the tent, those who wrote current deal are not best people to tweak it, loathe to kill their darlings, loathe to divert from their own version of Brexit.

Governing well means problem solving quickly, thinking outside the box being flexible - and Boris Brexit Deal is the way to govern in UK now. It is woven into wide range of policy across government. Not a doubt in my mind it’s making government inflexible and keeping groups outside the tent good government need in the tent working with them.

Alistair

Giraffe based AI failure

https://twitter.com/JanelleCShane/status/1533958166635069441?t=WjhL5uhfYK6W-DI07ET0Nw&s=19

dixiedean

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Shock horror. An opposition party that sees ousting the government as its main priority. How very dare they! Don't they know that the Tories have a divine right to rule?

Find the "anti-democratic pact" bit somewhat unconvincing.
What was the Coalition?

tlg86

Has the Tory candidates in the by-elections been asked what they would have done in the VONC? I wouldn't expect them to answer, but it would be worth asking them.

wooliedyed

tlg86 said:

Has the Tory candidates in the by-elections been asked what they would have done in the VONC? I wouldn't expect them to answer, but it would be worth asking them.

'Abstained and watched my Swedish Erotica collection'

TimS

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Shock horror. An opposition party that sees ousting the government as its main priority. How very dare they! Don't they know that the Tories have a divine right to rule?

I do get the sense Boris and his cohort feel affronted that other parties should dare to question his divine right to rule.

kjh

Most leaflets spend 10 seconds between the door and the bin so for most (A yellow leaflet with a nice big headline telling you what the LDs believe in) it will just come over as another yellow peril leaflet, with the contents not read. Tories doing the job for the LDs here.

williamglenn

Ukrainian president Zelensky on Boris Johnson surviving the confidence vote: 'I am very happy about it, I'm happy that I think Boris Johnson is a true friend of Ukraine, I regard him as our ally, GB is our great ally. Boris is supporting us, Boris is very concrete in supporting Ukraine... I'm glad we have not lost a very important ally, this is great news.'

https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1534116442488160256

IanB2

FPT:

IanB2 said:

kjh said:

IanB2 said:

kjh said:

IanB2 said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The only mention we get of Brexit now is the need to make it work. Hard to ignore the thing when it is directly impacting people via its role in the CoL crisis. So its about solutions, not trying to replay the war.

Brexit can never work. That is why the misery continues

People like are the reason Brexit will continue to vex us. You cannot and will not accept Brexit. You are emotionally incapable of accepting it, that’s like expecting a 16th century Catholic to accept the Reformation. You would rejoin tomorrow, and rejoin is your aim

There are a lot of people like you in politics, especially (but not exclusively) on the Left. As and when Labour gain power they will make their move. Starmer will come under pressure to yield to their desires, in some form (Single Market access to start with). Brexit will therefore vex us for many years to come

If Starmer does make it to Downing Street, the current government's absolutely abysmal handling of Brexit means that there are likely to be a number of quick wins he can secure that will probably make a lot of the day to day stuff vexing people, such as long passport queues and long customs delays, go away.

How can Starmer secure wins on passport queues? We still let EU citizens use e-gates when they arrive in the UK - something the EU does not allow “Third Country” citizens do - so we don’t have any “concessions” to offer them - unless we withdraw EU citizens access.

Look at how countries secure wins inside the EU. They do not do it by trading on a like for like basis. They do it by trading what they can offer in return for what they want.

What do you suggest Starmer trade to improve EU tourism business?

Who knows? But the idea that the UK has nothing to offer seems a little far-fetched to me.

So you think Starmer can get easy wins….. but you actually have no clue what they are and how he will get them. Er, OK

There is a saying about not criticizing unless you have a better idea and guess what that is bollocks. Any decent team has what is known as an evaluator type person. They look for problems not solutions. It is a different skill. My wife who was in drug safety did just that role. Others with different skills would loo for the solutions.

It is entirely rational to point out what you are doing is not working and a different approach would be better.

So, the Leavers were right to say "the EU is shit and we will do better if we Leave", without going into detail?

lol

No. Try reading the post. An evaluator points out the problems. They don't just make them up. You clearly have no concept of project management. It is a proper role to identify real problems without having to identify solutions. It is not a proper role to say something doesn't work without evidence.

I can't believe you can't see that.

So if my wife spotted that a drug might kill, she didn't have to have a solution. However she didn't randomly say a drug might kill, she provided evidence.

Really it is depressing you can't see this.

But this is politics. Not project management. That's my point

The Leavers were allowed to get away with scant attention to detail of how Brexit would work and what it would look like - and people rightly criticized it. But in the same vein, @SouthamObserver can't airily say Oh Keir Starmer could solve this, this and this problem with Brexit, not without giving us hard practical examples of how and when Starmer would fix these glitches


You see every problem through the lens of your job (or your wife's job?). You have a deformation professionelle, as the French say

"Déformation professionnelle (French: [defɔʁmasjɔ̃ pʁɔfɛsjɔnɛl], professional deformation or job conditioning) is a tendency to look at things from the point of view of one's own profession or special expertise, rather than from a broader perspective."

Basic project management applies across the board and actually I posted from my experience and training, but thought my wife's example was better than any I could give, but my simple point was that it is wrong to assume that you have to have a solution when identifying a problem. You do obviously then need a solution so any team made up of representatives from one project management skill is useless. In our house we are both evaluator types which leads to not making mistakes, but nothing getting done. There is nothing wrong with occasionally making mistakes. On the other side there are people like yourself which is just to say let's do it without any consideration of the how or the disasters you get yourself into because nobody is standing there going 'just hang on a minute' eg inventing a plane without wheels to land on, or a car without brakes.

But this isn't so. Retract


I am one of the few Leavers on here who was explicit from the start that Leaving would bring significant problems and economic pain, for quite a while. I was scathing about the Leavers who promised "the best deal ever in 3 minutes"; Laaving was obviously going to HURT

I didn't mean about the leaving the EU in general. I agree you said it would cause pain in the short term. I mean your outlook in general.

Just look at all your posts this morning. Everything thing is easy, just get over it, not a problem. Well for most people it isn't.

You have two passports (how?), you are single, you don't have an existing property abroad, you don't have a pet to travel with, you haven't been caught out accidently by the 90 day rule because your return trip wasn't recorded.

Lots of this stuff can't be solved by the average person here. For all of them they are stuffed by these changes. Lots of people worry more than you do about travel. They don't have your experience of travel.

Some truth in that, I guess

I was shocked by the PB-er who said "he's scared of driving on the right". To me that seems pathetically lame, but then I have spent a lifetime travelling, often to very remote places, so almost nothing phases me, travel-wise. But I am unusual, as you say. I actually get frustrated with more timorous friends and relations who say they want to travel but then quail at the "potential problems". To them "going to Tbilisi" seems impossibly difficult but it really isn't. It's easier than most places. Zero visa issues, you can stay a year, everything is cheap, the young speak English, the food is good the wine is ace and the sun shines reliably from May-October. Do it!

As for your other points, hmm. If you get a pet, or buy a 2nd home in the Algarve, or get married, you are making a conscious choice to make your life more rooted, and travel more tricky. You get great rewards, but you won't be able to zip around the world. I have chosen to be untramelled, and it does mean I am blissfully free to bugger off to anywhere that will let me in, but it also comes at a cost, it can be lonely, for a start (tho you make friends as you go, I have a new Mingrelian friend here in Tbilisi).

We all make these choices. We all have the freedom to choose

Good post. Only bit I disagree with is the last para and I have to say normally I wouldn't disagree with you because as you say if you decide to do something then you need to take responsibility for that. However that wasn't the choice with Brexit. If you already had a holiday home (and to make it worse had pets) you were completely scuppered by it. You made the decision when none of these restrictions applied. Now the pets stuff could be made a lot easier, but as usual the UK Govt has made a pigs ear of it. I wouldn't mind an offline conversation with @IanB2 who I know travels with his dog. One of my friends sold his house to travel around Europe in a motorhome. Brexit caused him to have to come home and live on his son's driveway!

Re the first para I fully agree, but as you accept all people are different and have different hang ups which aren't rational, but we aren't rational beings and I reckon if the travel a lot you get less fazed. To give you an example I suffer from anxiety (like many) but only in a very specific and unusual form, mainly to do with taking on campaigns, which I do a lot of. I have none of the normal anxieties and for instance I can present to 100 people without any problem. I once attended a seminar of people with anxieties and the people all had to say what they suffered from. As it went around the group I was thinking 'I shouldn't be here, you are all a bunch of loonies', except when I spoke they all looked at me as if to say 'What the hell is wrong with you? Why take on these campaigns'

I guess in a nut shell most of us are a bit nutty. Those that aren't are a bit boring. You are definitely not boring

The biggest challenge with extended travel in Europe is the 90/180 visa rules for humans. The dog thing is surmountable - the new paperwork is an immense hassle, but it's a question of money and preparation, and doesn't actually stop you travelling (the new certificate lasts four months, but if it expires you just pay for a new one). And many Brits are doing what I have managed to do, and secure a new pet passport from a friendly vet in an EU country - which should make it cheaper and easier for us to travel in future. But there's a tussle going on with the UK government - which wants to be inside the scheme without accepting that the EU sets the rules - and meanwhile the EU Commission is trying very hard to stop British holidaymakers getting hold of EU PPs. On the relevant Facebook and other forums there are acres of posts discussing it all.

Thanks @IanB2 The problem we have found is you need to get the health certificate within 10 days of travel, but we can't get a vet to do one for about 2 months which means travel needs long term planning and no just popping over the channel for a weekend. Interested in being able to get an EU passport if possible. What do you also do re worming certificate prior to returning. Is that simple and how much?

And of course the other annoying thing is it costs more to take your bloody dog to France than it costs to take yourself.

If you know you're going to travel, you book the AHC with your vet weeks in advance. Or you can use one of the few specialists that has popped up (Abbeywell, Passpets...) - they charge more for short notice certificates, but if you don't mind paying, you can get one quickly. Abbeywell regularly bails out people who pitch up at Dover or for the tunnel with flawed documentation and need their holiday rescuing.

The worming certificate is easy - some people just call at vets and have it done there and then; I like to have an appointment lined up. You have five days (so for a weekend break can actually have it done in the UK before you leave) and it typically costs between €15-€25. Nearer Calais, for some mysterious reason, many vets are charging €50 or more, hence it is cheaper to get it done further away. Last October in Freiburg it cost me €11 and last month in Bergamo €20.

Getting a PP was easy, and is gradually becoming more difficult. In France and Belgium it's already exceptionally difficult, in Italy it can be done but the bureaucracy you have to jump through is worse, in Spain and Germany it's still possible if you hunt around - but one feels the door is slowly being closed. Whether they get as far as trying to 'disqualify' those already issued to travelling Brits is another matter. If you have a foreign address, long-stay visa or residency it is much easier.

Cheers Ian. I am thinking of buying a property in France with a friend. We were quoted £150 for the health certificate and we have 3 dogs between us so that is £450/trip! If we have a property and can get an EU passport that would be great. I knew about the fee thing as you get nearer to Calais. Free market and all that. Can't blame them. Didn't know about the short notice guys. That is useful because 6 - 8 weeks is ridiculous. Our vet, which is a reasonable sized practise and very good, has only one person qualified to issue the certificate and apparently it is labourious, hence the fee.

£150 is a little over the odds but not much - my vet charges £125 and Abbeywell, with notice, is I think £100. Most 'ordinary' vets in the UK only have one person trained up and authorised to issue them, hence the need to book and the waiting time - and some vets don't want the hassle and risk (people have been stopped from travelling due to minor admin slips and some go back to their vet wanting large amounts of compensation for a ruined holiday) and are deterring people by charging several £hundreds for them.

A lot of people - including vets - don't understand that one AHC can cover up to five dogs! Some vets charge a little more for the complexity of adding extra dogs onto a certificate, but you don't need separate certificates for the same "consignment" of non-commercially transported animals, assuming the owner is the same (and who would know?).

In France an address is pretty much required now, as the French have led the way in trying to clamp down on PPs for Brits, as is also an ICAD registration. Many vets won't issue a PP until the dog has been resident for three months, effectively excluding Brits on tourist visas. The very best bet for getting an EU PP is a trip to the Irish Republic - or even, currently (but very topical given the politics) Northern Ireland, since their odd status means their PPs are still valid. Spain is also a decent bet. If you join a relevant discussion forum you will be able to get some tips - although people are becoming more wary of publishing vets that are happy to deal with Brits, since the attention and numerous speculative enquiries they then get aren't always welcome and it looks pretty clear that some pro-Brexit people have been trying to make life difficult for those vets by trying to report them.

TimS

It’s a shame T&H isn’t a little bit closer. There is a definite chance of the Tories retaining it, and that could really deal a blow to tactical voting in the next GE. Lib Dems need to be established as the main challengers across the South West and leafy Home Counties.

Conversely a clear win for them in Devon with a collapsed Labour vote and a landslide win for Labour in Wakefield with a collapsed Lib Dem vote will really send a message to voters. Perfect case study.

BartholomewRoberts

williamglenn said:

Ukrainian president Zelensky on Boris Johnson surviving the confidence vote: 'I am very happy about it, I'm happy that I think Boris Johnson is a true friend of Ukraine, I regard him as our ally, GB is our great ally. Boris is supporting us, Boris is very concrete in supporting Ukraine... I'm glad we have not lost a very important ally, this is great news.'

https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1534116442488160256

How many people criticised Zahawi last night for saying that? 🤔

StillWaters

MattW said:

3rd Rhymes with someone's a t*rd.

Time to water the garden.

Amber?

Theuniondivvie

dixiedean said:

Not convinced T+H is lost quite yet.
But, we are approaching the stage where anything the government says is reflexively discounted as false and unpopular, purely because of who is saying it

Possibly, but aided by almost anything being said by the government being false and unpopular.

kjh

IanB2 said:

FPT:

IanB2 said:

kjh said:

IanB2 said:

kjh said:

IanB2 said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The only mention we get of Brexit now is the need to make it work. Hard to ignore the thing when it is directly impacting people via its role in the CoL crisis. So its about solutions, not trying to replay the war.

Brexit can never work. That is why the misery continues

People like are the reason Brexit will continue to vex us. You cannot and will not accept Brexit. You are emotionally incapable of accepting it, that’s like expecting a 16th century Catholic to accept the Reformation. You would rejoin tomorrow, and rejoin is your aim

There are a lot of people like you in politics, especially (but not exclusively) on the Left. As and when Labour gain power they will make their move. Starmer will come under pressure to yield to their desires, in some form (Single Market access to start with). Brexit will therefore vex us for many years to come

If Starmer does make it to Downing Street, the current government's absolutely abysmal handling of Brexit means that there are likely to be a number of quick wins he can secure that will probably make a lot of the day to day stuff vexing people, such as long passport queues and long customs delays, go away.

How can Starmer secure wins on passport queues? We still let EU citizens use e-gates when they arrive in the UK - something the EU does not allow “Third Country” citizens do - so we don’t have any “concessions” to offer them - unless we withdraw EU citizens access.

Look at how countries secure wins inside the EU. They do not do it by trading on a like for like basis. They do it by trading what they can offer in return for what they want.

What do you suggest Starmer trade to improve EU tourism business?

Who knows? But the idea that the UK has nothing to offer seems a little far-fetched to me.

So you think Starmer can get easy wins….. but you actually have no clue what they are and how he will get them. Er, OK

There is a saying about not criticizing unless you have a better idea and guess what that is bollocks. Any decent team has what is known as an evaluator type person. They look for problems not solutions. It is a different skill. My wife who was in drug safety did just that role. Others with different skills would loo for the solutions.

It is entirely rational to point out what you are doing is not working and a different approach would be better.

So, the Leavers were right to say "the EU is shit and we will do better if we Leave", without going into detail?

lol

No. Try reading the post. An evaluator points out the problems. They don't just make them up. You clearly have no concept of project management. It is a proper role to identify real problems without having to identify solutions. It is not a proper role to say something doesn't work without evidence.

I can't believe you can't see that.

So if my wife spotted that a drug might kill, she didn't have to have a solution. However she didn't randomly say a drug might kill, she provided evidence.

Really it is depressing you can't see this.

But this is politics. Not project management. That's my point

The Leavers were allowed to get away with scant attention to detail of how Brexit would work and what it would look like - and people rightly criticized it. But in the same vein, @SouthamObserver can't airily say Oh Keir Starmer could solve this, this and this problem with Brexit, not without giving us hard practical examples of how and when Starmer would fix these glitches


You see every problem through the lens of your job (or your wife's job?). You have a deformation professionelle, as the French say

"Déformation professionnelle (French: [defɔʁmasjɔ̃ pʁɔfɛsjɔnɛl], professional deformation or job conditioning) is a tendency to look at things from the point of view of one's own profession or special expertise, rather than from a broader perspective."

Basic project management applies across the board and actually I posted from my experience and training, but thought my wife's example was better than any I could give, but my simple point was that it is wrong to assume that you have to have a solution when identifying a problem. You do obviously then need a solution so any team made up of representatives from one project management skill is useless. In our house we are both evaluator types which leads to not making mistakes, but nothing getting done. There is nothing wrong with occasionally making mistakes. On the other side there are people like yourself which is just to say let's do it without any consideration of the how or the disasters you get yourself into because nobody is standing there going 'just hang on a minute' eg inventing a plane without wheels to land on, or a car without brakes.

But this isn't so. Retract


I am one of the few Leavers on here who was explicit from the start that Leaving would bring significant problems and economic pain, for quite a while. I was scathing about the Leavers who promised "the best deal ever in 3 minutes"; Laaving was obviously going to HURT

I didn't mean about the leaving the EU in general. I agree you said it would cause pain in the short term. I mean your outlook in general.

Just look at all your posts this morning. Everything thing is easy, just get over it, not a problem. Well for most people it isn't.

You have two passports (how?), you are single, you don't have an existing property abroad, you don't have a pet to travel with, you haven't been caught out accidently by the 90 day rule because your return trip wasn't recorded.

Lots of this stuff can't be solved by the average person here. For all of them they are stuffed by these changes. Lots of people worry more than you do about travel. They don't have your experience of travel.

Some truth in that, I guess

I was shocked by the PB-er who said "he's scared of driving on the right". To me that seems pathetically lame, but then I have spent a lifetime travelling, often to very remote places, so almost nothing phases me, travel-wise. But I am unusual, as you say. I actually get frustrated with more timorous friends and relations who say they want to travel but then quail at the "potential problems". To them "going to Tbilisi" seems impossibly difficult but it really isn't. It's easier than most places. Zero visa issues, you can stay a year, everything is cheap, the young speak English, the food is good the wine is ace and the sun shines reliably from May-October. Do it!

As for your other points, hmm. If you get a pet, or buy a 2nd home in the Algarve, or get married, you are making a conscious choice to make your life more rooted, and travel more tricky. You get great rewards, but you won't be able to zip around the world. I have chosen to be untramelled, and it does mean I am blissfully free to bugger off to anywhere that will let me in, but it also comes at a cost, it can be lonely, for a start (tho you make friends as you go, I have a new Mingrelian friend here in Tbilisi).

We all make these choices. We all have the freedom to choose

Good post. Only bit I disagree with is the last para and I have to say normally I wouldn't disagree with you because as you say if you decide to do something then you need to take responsibility for that. However that wasn't the choice with Brexit. If you already had a holiday home (and to make it worse had pets) you were completely scuppered by it. You made the decision when none of these restrictions applied. Now the pets stuff could be made a lot easier, but as usual the UK Govt has made a pigs ear of it. I wouldn't mind an offline conversation with @IanB2 who I know travels with his dog. One of my friends sold his house to travel around Europe in a motorhome. Brexit caused him to have to come home and live on his son's driveway!

Re the first para I fully agree, but as you accept all people are different and have different hang ups which aren't rational, but we aren't rational beings and I reckon if the travel a lot you get less fazed. To give you an example I suffer from anxiety (like many) but only in a very specific and unusual form, mainly to do with taking on campaigns, which I do a lot of. I have none of the normal anxieties and for instance I can present to 100 people without any problem. I once attended a seminar of people with anxieties and the people all had to say what they suffered from. As it went around the group I was thinking 'I shouldn't be here, you are all a bunch of loonies', except when I spoke they all looked at me as if to say 'What the hell is wrong with you? Why take on these campaigns'

I guess in a nut shell most of us are a bit nutty. Those that aren't are a bit boring. You are definitely not boring

The biggest challenge with extended travel in Europe is the 90/180 visa rules for humans. The dog thing is surmountable - the new paperwork is an immense hassle, but it's a question of money and preparation, and doesn't actually stop you travelling (the new certificate lasts four months, but if it expires you just pay for a new one). And many Brits are doing what I have managed to do, and secure a new pet passport from a friendly vet in an EU country - which should make it cheaper and easier for us to travel in future. But there's a tussle going on with the UK government - which wants to be inside the scheme without accepting that the EU sets the rules - and meanwhile the EU Commission is trying very hard to stop British holidaymakers getting hold of EU PPs. On the relevant Facebook and other forums there are acres of posts discussing it all.

Thanks @IanB2 The problem we have found is you need to get the health certificate within 10 days of travel, but we can't get a vet to do one for about 2 months which means travel needs long term planning and no just popping over the channel for a weekend. Interested in being able to get an EU passport if possible. What do you also do re worming certificate prior to returning. Is that simple and how much?

And of course the other annoying thing is it costs more to take your bloody dog to France than it costs to take yourself.

If you know you're going to travel, you book the AHC with your vet weeks in advance. Or you can use one of the few specialists that has popped up (Abbeywell, Passpets...) - they charge more for short notice certificates, but if you don't mind paying, you can get one quickly. Abbeywell regularly bails out people who pitch up at Dover or for the tunnel with flawed documentation and need their holiday rescuing.

The worming certificate is easy - some people just call at vets and have it done there and then; I like to have an appointment lined up. You have five days (so for a weekend break can actually have it done in the UK before you leave) and it typically costs between €15-€25. Nearer Calais, for some mysterious reason, many vets are charging €50 or more, hence it is cheaper to get it done further away. Last October in Freiburg it cost me €11 and last month in Bergamo €20.

Getting a PP was easy, and is gradually becoming more difficult. In France and Belgium it's already exceptionally difficult, in Italy it can be done but the bureaucracy you have to jump through is worse, in Spain and Germany it's still possible if you hunt around - but one feels the door is slowly being closed. Whether they get as far as trying to 'disqualify' those already issued to travelling Brits is another matter. If you have a foreign address, long-stay visa or residency it is much easier.

Cheers Ian. I am thinking of buying a property in France with a friend. We were quoted £150 for the health certificate and we have 3 dogs between us so that is £450/trip! If we have a property and can get an EU passport that would be great. I knew about the fee thing as you get nearer to Calais. Free market and all that. Can't blame them. Didn't know about the short notice guys. That is useful because 6 - 8 weeks is ridiculous. Our vet, which is a reasonable sized practise and very good, has only one person qualified to issue the certificate and apparently it is labourious, hence the fee.

£150 is a little over the odds but not much - my vet charges £125 and Abbeywell, with notice, is I think £100. Most 'ordinary' vets in the UK only have one person trained up and authorised to issue them, hence the need to book and the waiting time - and some vets don't want the hassle and risk (people have been stopped from travelling due to minor admin slips and some go back to their vet wanting large amounts of compensation for a ruined holiday) and are deterring people by charging several £hundreds for them.

A lot of people - including vets - don't understand that one AHC can cover up to five dogs! Some vets charge a little more for the complexity of adding extra dogs onto a certificate, but you don't need separate certificates for the same "consignment" of non-commercially transported animals, assuming the owner is the same (and who would know?).

In France an address is pretty much required now, as the French have led the way in trying to clamp down on PPs for Brits, as is also an ICAD registration. Many vets won't issue a PP until the dog has been resident for three months, effectively excluding Brits on tourist visas. The very best bet for getting an EU PP is a trip to the Irish Republic - or even, currently (but very topical given the politics) Northern Ireland, since their odd status means their PPs are still valid. Spain is also a decent bet. If you join a relevant discussion forum you will be able to get some tips - although people are becoming more wary of publishing vets that are happy to deal with Brits, since the attention and numerous speculative enquiries they then get aren't always welcome and it looks pretty clear that some pro-Brexit people have been trying to make life difficult for those vets by trying to report them.

This is great stuff Ian, thank you. I knew you could get a certificate for multiple dogs, but I thought you had to be over a certain number (for some reason I had 5 in my mind). I thought it was just a discount for numbers.

We had planned a trip to France that was scuppered when we found we couldn't get the certificate in time.

dixiedean

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Pulpstar said:

The Tories have a huge problem. A large chunk of Tory support backs Boris. That goes if they ditch him, this tends to be ex Lab hard-core brexiteers I think.
But they're going to lose a large chunk of soft remain fiscally centre right voters that Cameron picked up and kept through the Corbyn era if he stays. Its insoluble, at least in time for the next GE.

They need to find someone who would be seen as a unity candidate, or perhaps a unity pairing. Brexit is finished, over with. What people did or said they thought on that subject is no longer relevant. They need to find someone who can heal wounds and demonstrate competence and has an air of trustworthiness .

I generally agree with what you are both saying. Brexit isn’t finished and in the past. Soon as by election comes up PB rightly turns to the 2016 stats. It’s still playing in UK elections, some places much more than others.

One big part of Boris appeal in 2019 election was his promise to unite the divided electorate and more the country on from Brexit division. He hasn’t. If anything Remainia are even more pissed off at the Tories about it. Tell me I am wrong.

But to be fair to Boris, how exactly does he achieve that promise? How does a PM actively move the electorate on from Brexit division?

And their is a second way Brexit plays big in our politics today. Quite a few posters to PB suggested Boris government are not the best to actually make Brexit work. The argument is, where there needs to be flexibility to hone it in a way that works better and brings everyone inside the tent, those who wrote current deal are not best people to tweak it, loathe to kill their darlings, loathe to divert from their own version of Brexit.

Governing well means problem solving quickly, thinking outside the box being flexible - and Boris Brexit Deal is the way to govern in UK now. It is woven into wide range of policy across government. Not a doubt in my mind it’s making government inflexible and keeping groups outside the tent good government need in the tent working with them.

You seem under the impression good government is an aim.

IanB2

kjh said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

IanB2 said:

kjh said:

IanB2 said:

kjh said:

IanB2 said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The only mention we get of Brexit now is the need to make it work. Hard to ignore the thing when it is directly impacting people via its role in the CoL crisis. So its about solutions, not trying to replay the war.

Brexit can never work. That is why the misery continues

People like are the reason Brexit will continue to vex us. You cannot and will not accept Brexit. You are emotionally incapable of accepting it, that’s like expecting a 16th century Catholic to accept the Reformation. You would rejoin tomorrow, and rejoin is your aim

There are a lot of people like you in politics, especially (but not exclusively) on the Left. As and when Labour gain power they will make their move. Starmer will come under pressure to yield to their desires, in some form (Single Market access to start with). Brexit will therefore vex us for many years to come

If Starmer does make it to Downing Street, the current government's absolutely abysmal handling of Brexit means that there are likely to be a number of quick wins he can secure that will probably make a lot of the day to day stuff vexing people, such as long passport queues and long customs delays, go away.

How can Starmer secure wins on passport queues? We still let EU citizens use e-gates when they arrive in the UK - something the EU does not allow “Third Country” citizens do - so we don’t have any “concessions” to offer them - unless we withdraw EU citizens access.

Look at how countries secure wins inside the EU. They do not do it by trading on a like for like basis. They do it by trading what they can offer in return for what they want.

What do you suggest Starmer trade to improve EU tourism business?

Who knows? But the idea that the UK has nothing to offer seems a little far-fetched to me.

So you think Starmer can get easy wins….. but you actually have no clue what they are and how he will get them. Er, OK

There is a saying about not criticizing unless you have a better idea and guess what that is bollocks. Any decent team has what is known as an evaluator type person. They look for problems not solutions. It is a different skill. My wife who was in drug safety did just that role. Others with different skills would loo for the solutions.

It is entirely rational to point out what you are doing is not working and a different approach would be better.

So, the Leavers were right to say "the EU is shit and we will do better if we Leave", without going into detail?

lol

No. Try reading the post. An evaluator points out the problems. They don't just make them up. You clearly have no concept of project management. It is a proper role to identify real problems without having to identify solutions. It is not a proper role to say something doesn't work without evidence.

I can't believe you can't see that.

So if my wife spotted that a drug might kill, she didn't have to have a solution. However she didn't randomly say a drug might kill, she provided evidence.

Really it is depressing you can't see this.

But this is politics. Not project management. That's my point

The Leavers were allowed to get away with scant attention to detail of how Brexit would work and what it would look like - and people rightly criticized it. But in the same vein, @SouthamObserver can't airily say Oh Keir Starmer could solve this, this and this problem with Brexit, not without giving us hard practical examples of how and when Starmer would fix these glitches


You see every problem through the lens of your job (or your wife's job?). You have a deformation professionelle, as the French say

"Déformation professionnelle (French: [defɔʁmasjɔ̃ pʁɔfɛsjɔnɛl], professional deformation or job conditioning) is a tendency to look at things from the point of view of one's own profession or special expertise, rather than from a broader perspective."

Basic project management applies across the board and actually I posted from my experience and training, but thought my wife's example was better than any I could give, but my simple point was that it is wrong to assume that you have to have a solution when identifying a problem. You do obviously then need a solution so any team made up of representatives from one project management skill is useless. In our house we are both evaluator types which leads to not making mistakes, but nothing getting done. There is nothing wrong with occasionally making mistakes. On the other side there are people like yourself which is just to say let's do it without any consideration of the how or the disasters you get yourself into because nobody is standing there going 'just hang on a minute' eg inventing a plane without wheels to land on, or a car without brakes.

But this isn't so. Retract


I am one of the few Leavers on here who was explicit from the start that Leaving would bring significant problems and economic pain, for quite a while. I was scathing about the Leavers who promised "the best deal ever in 3 minutes"; Laaving was obviously going to HURT

I didn't mean about the leaving the EU in general. I agree you said it would cause pain in the short term. I mean your outlook in general.

Just look at all your posts this morning. Everything thing is easy, just get over it, not a problem. Well for most people it isn't.

You have two passports (how?), you are single, you don't have an existing property abroad, you don't have a pet to travel with, you haven't been caught out accidently by the 90 day rule because your return trip wasn't recorded.

Lots of this stuff can't be solved by the average person here. For all of them they are stuffed by these changes. Lots of people worry more than you do about travel. They don't have your experience of travel.

Some truth in that, I guess

I was shocked by the PB-er who said "he's scared of driving on the right". To me that seems pathetically lame, but then I have spent a lifetime travelling, often to very remote places, so almost nothing phases me, travel-wise. But I am unusual, as you say. I actually get frustrated with more timorous friends and relations who say they want to travel but then quail at the "potential problems". To them "going to Tbilisi" seems impossibly difficult but it really isn't. It's easier than most places. Zero visa issues, you can stay a year, everything is cheap, the young speak English, the food is good the wine is ace and the sun shines reliably from May-October. Do it!

As for your other points, hmm. If you get a pet, or buy a 2nd home in the Algarve, or get married, you are making a conscious choice to make your life more rooted, and travel more tricky. You get great rewards, but you won't be able to zip around the world. I have chosen to be untramelled, and it does mean I am blissfully free to bugger off to anywhere that will let me in, but it also comes at a cost, it can be lonely, for a start (tho you make friends as you go, I have a new Mingrelian friend here in Tbilisi).

We all make these choices. We all have the freedom to choose

Good post. Only bit I disagree with is the last para and I have to say normally I wouldn't disagree with you because as you say if you decide to do something then you need to take responsibility for that. However that wasn't the choice with Brexit. If you already had a holiday home (and to make it worse had pets) you were completely scuppered by it. You made the decision when none of these restrictions applied. Now the pets stuff could be made a lot easier, but as usual the UK Govt has made a pigs ear of it. I wouldn't mind an offline conversation with @IanB2 who I know travels with his dog. One of my friends sold his house to travel around Europe in a motorhome. Brexit caused him to have to come home and live on his son's driveway!

Re the first para I fully agree, but as you accept all people are different and have different hang ups which aren't rational, but we aren't rational beings and I reckon if the travel a lot you get less fazed. To give you an example I suffer from anxiety (like many) but only in a very specific and unusual form, mainly to do with taking on campaigns, which I do a lot of. I have none of the normal anxieties and for instance I can present to 100 people without any problem. I once attended a seminar of people with anxieties and the people all had to say what they suffered from. As it went around the group I was thinking 'I shouldn't be here, you are all a bunch of loonies', except when I spoke they all looked at me as if to say 'What the hell is wrong with you? Why take on these campaigns'

I guess in a nut shell most of us are a bit nutty. Those that aren't are a bit boring. You are definitely not boring

The biggest challenge with extended travel in Europe is the 90/180 visa rules for humans. The dog thing is surmountable - the new paperwork is an immense hassle, but it's a question of money and preparation, and doesn't actually stop you travelling (the new certificate lasts four months, but if it expires you just pay for a new one). And many Brits are doing what I have managed to do, and secure a new pet passport from a friendly vet in an EU country - which should make it cheaper and easier for us to travel in future. But there's a tussle going on with the UK government - which wants to be inside the scheme without accepting that the EU sets the rules - and meanwhile the EU Commission is trying very hard to stop British holidaymakers getting hold of EU PPs. On the relevant Facebook and other forums there are acres of posts discussing it all.

Thanks @IanB2 The problem we have found is you need to get the health certificate within 10 days of travel, but we can't get a vet to do one for about 2 months which means travel needs long term planning and no just popping over the channel for a weekend. Interested in being able to get an EU passport if possible. What do you also do re worming certificate prior to returning. Is that simple and how much?

And of course the other annoying thing is it costs more to take your bloody dog to France than it costs to take yourself.

If you know you're going to travel, you book the AHC with your vet weeks in advance. Or you can use one of the few specialists that has popped up (Abbeywell, Passpets...) - they charge more for short notice certificates, but if you don't mind paying, you can get one quickly. Abbeywell regularly bails out people who pitch up at Dover or for the tunnel with flawed documentation and need their holiday rescuing.

The worming certificate is easy - some people just call at vets and have it done there and then; I like to have an appointment lined up. You have five days (so for a weekend break can actually have it done in the UK before you leave) and it typically costs between €15-€25. Nearer Calais, for some mysterious reason, many vets are charging €50 or more, hence it is cheaper to get it done further away. Last October in Freiburg it cost me €11 and last month in Bergamo €20.

Getting a PP was easy, and is gradually becoming more difficult. In France and Belgium it's already exceptionally difficult, in Italy it can be done but the bureaucracy you have to jump through is worse, in Spain and Germany it's still possible if you hunt around - but one feels the door is slowly being closed. Whether they get as far as trying to 'disqualify' those already issued to travelling Brits is another matter. If you have a foreign address, long-stay visa or residency it is much easier.

Cheers Ian. I am thinking of buying a property in France with a friend. We were quoted £150 for the health certificate and we have 3 dogs between us so that is £450/trip! If we have a property and can get an EU passport that would be great. I knew about the fee thing as you get nearer to Calais. Free market and all that. Can't blame them. Didn't know about the short notice guys. That is useful because 6 - 8 weeks is ridiculous. Our vet, which is a reasonable sized practise and very good, has only one person qualified to issue the certificate and apparently it is labourious, hence the fee.

£150 is a little over the odds but not much - my vet charges £125 and Abbeywell, with notice, is I think £100. Most 'ordinary' vets in the UK only have one person trained up and authorised to issue them, hence the need to book and the waiting time - and some vets don't want the hassle and risk (people have been stopped from travelling due to minor admin slips and some go back to their vet wanting large amounts of compensation for a ruined holiday) and are deterring people by charging several £hundreds for them.

A lot of people - including vets - don't understand that one AHC can cover up to five dogs! Some vets charge a little more for the complexity of adding extra dogs onto a certificate, but you don't need separate certificates for the same "consignment" of non-commercially transported animals, assuming the owner is the same (and who would know?).

In France an address is pretty much required now, as the French have led the way in trying to clamp down on PPs for Brits, as is also an ICAD registration. Many vets won't issue a PP until the dog has been resident for three months, effectively excluding Brits on tourist visas. The very best bet for getting an EU PP is a trip to the Irish Republic - or even, currently (but very topical given the politics) Northern Ireland, since their odd status means their PPs are still valid. Spain is also a decent bet. If you join a relevant discussion forum you will be able to get some tips - although people are becoming more wary of publishing vets that are happy to deal with Brits, since the attention and numerous speculative enquiries they then get aren't always welcome and it looks pretty clear that some pro-Brexit people have been trying to make life difficult for those vets by trying to report them.

This is great stuff Ian, thank you. I knew you could get a certificate for multiple dogs, but I thought you had to be over a certain number (for some reason I had 5 in my mind). I thought it was just a discount for numbers.

We had planned a trip to France that was scuppered when we found we couldn't get the certificate in time

Up to five, not more than five!

Abbeywell would have got you one at short notice, for a cost, although they obviously prefer some notice.

SirNorfolkPassmore

Gardenwalker said:

Sorry to be rude, but the Tory candidate has those mad staring eyes which usually betoken a thyroid disorder.

And the Lib Dem candidate looks like a fraudulent vicar. Something in the teeth.

None of the candidates actually pass muster.

What do you want, Elle McPherson?

A tip for the future - if you're thinking of posting something beginning "Sorry to be rude, but..." which then goes on about the physical attractiveness or otherwise of political candidates, don't do it. It makes you sound like a prick.

HYUFD

Good Tory leaflet in Tiverton and Honiton. It is a Leave voting and traditional Tory area and hitting the LDs hard on their opposition to Brexit and tighter border controls and tougher prison sentences will go down well there. Also ensures the literature is not all one way from the Liberals.

The Conservative candidate is a well known local woman and I think has a chance of holding the seat which the Tories won with 60% of the vote in 2019. Most Labour voters will tactically vote LD anyway, to have a chance of holding on the Tories need to keep their core vote and get them out to vote

Roger

We have two very sound economists on here. One who sleeps with the angels* the other who doesn't but I've just had a very enlightening lesson as I followed Bartholomew and OnlyLivingBoy trying patiently to explain some basics to Leon.

To be fair the subtlety of GDP and GDP per annum was something I also didn't understand but unlike Leon who was last seen still arguing the point at least I do now!

* A lefty

BartholomewRoberts

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Gardenwalker said:

Sorry to be rude, but the Tory candidate has those mad staring eyes which usually betoken a thyroid disorder.

And the Lib Dem candidate looks like a fraudulent vicar. Something in the teeth.

None of the candidates actually pass muster.

What do you want, Elle McPherson?

A tip for the future - if you're thinking of posting something beginning "Sorry to be rude, but..." which then goes on about the physical attractiveness or otherwise of political candidates, don't do it. It makes you sound like a prick.

Considering Elle McPherson's relationship with Andrew Wakefield, I'm not sure attractiveness is what we should be looking for in decision makers . . .

TOPPING

The other thing is that people love Boris for his indefatigable optimism, his cheery demeanour and his generally infectious good heart.

Without that his USP is much diminished.

Will the vote strip him of the very thing people are attracted to.

HYUFD

Heathener said:

Two heavy by-election defeats coming: in both Red Wall and Blue Wall. If tory MPs didn't have the gumption to administer the coup de grace, the voters will.

A right-left sucker punch that would have made Muhammed Ali proud.

Wakefield is red wall ie a normally Labour Leave Northern or Midlands or Welsh seat that went Tory in 2019.

Tiverton and Honiton however isn't really blue wall ie a normally Tory Remain seat in the Home Counties which the LDs should see as a top target eg Chesham and Amersham. It should demographically as a Tory Leave seat be as strong Tory as Labour Remain seats are still strong Labour

Applicant

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Gardenwalker said:

Sorry to be rude, but the Tory candidate has those mad staring eyes which usually betoken a thyroid disorder.

And the Lib Dem candidate looks like a fraudulent vicar. Something in the teeth.

None of the candidates actually pass muster.

What do you want, Elle McPherson?

A tip for the future - if you're thinking of posting something beginning "Sorry to be rude, but..." which then goes on about the physical attractiveness or otherwise of political candidates, don't do it. It makes you sound like a prick.

"Everything Before the But..."

IanB2

HYUFD said:

Good Tory leaflet in Tiverton and Honiton. It is a Leave voting and traditional Tory area and hitting the LDs hard on their opposition to Brexit and tighter border controls and tougher prison sentences will go down well there. Also ensures the literature is not all one way from the Liberals.

The Conservative candidate is a well known local woman and I think has a chance of holding the seat which the Tories won with 60% of the vote in 2019. Most Labour voters will tactically vote LD anyway, to have a chance of holding on the Tories need to keep their core vote and get them out to vote

Typical Tory smear-campaigning, devoid of any positive reason to vote for them at all.

wooliedyed

TimS said:

It’s a shame T&H isn’t a little bit closer. There is a definite chance of the Tories retaining it, and that could really deal a blow to tactical voting in the next GE. Lib Dems need to be established as the main challengers across the South West and leafy Home Counties.

Conversely a clear win for them in Devon with a collapsed Labour vote and a landslide win for Labour in Wakefield with a collapsed Lib Dem vote will really send a message to voters. Perfect case study.

I'd like a little more than 'we are not the Tories' to vote for. Id like to know what i am holding the LDs or Labour to account for.
Once you discount the absurd and arrogant notion that either party are in any way a morally superior or simply a moral choice, you need to see what they offer, not what they are not.

Applicant

BartholomewRoberts said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Gardenwalker said:

Sorry to be rude, but the Tory candidate has those mad staring eyes which usually betoken a thyroid disorder.

And the Lib Dem candidate looks like a fraudulent vicar. Something in the teeth.

None of the candidates actually pass muster.

What do you want, Elle McPherson?

A tip for the future - if you're thinking of posting something beginning "Sorry to be rude, but..." which then goes on about the physical attractiveness or otherwise of political candidates, don't do it. It makes you sound like a prick.

Considering Elle McPherson's relationship with Andrew Wakefield, I'm not sure attractiveness is what we should be looking for in decision makers . . .

Should have been a match made in heaven. She's The Body, he has problems with antibodies.

Applicant

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Good Tory leaflet in Tiverton and Honiton. It is a Leave voting and traditional Tory area and hitting the LDs hard on their opposition to Brexit and tighter border controls and tougher prison sentences will go down well there. Also ensures the literature is not all one way from the Liberals.

The Conservative candidate is a well known local woman and I think has a chance of holding the seat which the Tories won with 60% of the vote in 2019. Most Labour voters will tactically vote LD anyway, to have a chance of holding on the Tories need to keep their core vote and get them out to vote

Typical Tory smear-campaigning, devoid of any positive reason to vote for them at all.

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

AugustusCarp2

OK, just to be fanciful for a moment - what are the odds on last night's VoNC fiasco for the Tories causing them to come third in both by elections?

BartholomewRoberts

Roger said:

We have two very sound economists on here. One who sleeps with the angels* the other who doesn't but I've just had a very enlightening lesson as I followed Bartholomew and OnlyLivingBoy trying patiently to explain some basics to Leon.

To be fair the subtlety of GDP and GDP per annum was something I also didn't understand but unlike Leon who was last seen still arguing the point at least I do now!

* A lefty

As we said, GDP is a flow and trying to understand it and its nuances properly is like the economic equivalent of fluid dynamics, difficult but not that interesting to most people.

wooliedyed

AugustusCarp2 said:

OK, just to be fanciful for a moment - what are the odds on last night's VoNC fiasco for the Tories causing them to come third in both by elections?

Very very long odds indeed.
Nobody in Wakefield within 25% of them on the polling, if Lab pick up enough to get close in tiverton then it risks a Tory win. They (tories) should get at least 30% in T and H

CarlottaVance

Off to a great start:

Boris Johnson's spokesman says the Prime Minister will transform the NHS into "a blockbuster health care system in the age of Netflix."

Asked repeatedly to explain what this means, Johnson's spokesman is unable to say which features of Netflix he believes the NHS should imitate.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1534129493845196801

HYUFD

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Good Tory leaflet in Tiverton and Honiton. It is a Leave voting and traditional Tory area and hitting the LDs hard on their opposition to Brexit and tighter border controls and tougher prison sentences will go down well there. Also ensures the literature is not all one way from the Liberals.

The Conservative candidate is a well known local woman and I think has a chance of holding the seat which the Tories won with 60% of the vote in 2019. Most Labour voters will tactically vote LD anyway, to have a chance of holding on the Tories need to keep their core vote and get them out to vote

Typical Tory smear-campaigning, devoid of any positive reason to vote for them at all.

I guess you have never had a LD Focus if you think they are full of positive reasons to vote for them, over half of LD literature is normally negative about the local Tory or Labour council or the government!

rottenborough

CarlottaVance said:

Off to a great start:

Boris Johnson's spokesman says the Prime Minister will transform the NHS into "a blockbuster health care system in the age of Netflix."

Asked repeatedly to explain what this means, Johnson's spokesman is unable to say which features of Netflix he believes the NHS should imitate.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1534129493845196801

Series 5 is usually cancelled?

Sandpit

FPT:

Malmesbury said:

A chap I knew actually wrote a shuttle landing simulator for the space shuttle - it was designed for a laptop format Sparc station (IIRC) that would be velcro'd in position on the actual space shuttle in orbit. The pilots could then practise landings. The idea was that they could practise landings on longer missions.

According to him, they programmed it with the various aerodynamic coefficients etc for the actual Shuttle. It was an early example of a flight simulator based on actual physics.

No one in the team could land it - crashed every time.

A bit worried, after some checking of their work, they asked someone from the astronaut office to come and try it.

The astronaut did a bunch of landings, apparently quite easily. He thanked them for the quality of the work....

Ha ha, brilliant story!

The Shuttle landing was totally nuts to even experienced pilots, an insane exercise in energy management that sees the thing drop tens of thousands of feet per minute, all programmed into a flight director on a head-up display, to keep the pilot on course. Oh, and it’s a glider, so no going around around if you get it wrong!

https://youtube.com/watch?v=kkjDr5-I5-s

Carnyx

CarlottaVance said:

Off to a great start:

Boris Johnson's spokesman says the Prime Minister will transform the NHS into "a blockbuster health care system in the age of Netflix."

Asked repeatedly to explain what this means, Johnson's spokesman is unable to say which features of Netflix he believes the NHS should imitate.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1534129493845196801

I thought it was C4 that had 'Embarrassing Bodies' on it.

IanB2

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Good Tory leaflet in Tiverton and Honiton. It is a Leave voting and traditional Tory area and hitting the LDs hard on their opposition to Brexit and tighter border controls and tougher prison sentences will go down well there. Also ensures the literature is not all one way from the Liberals.

The Conservative candidate is a well known local woman and I think has a chance of holding the seat which the Tories won with 60% of the vote in 2019. Most Labour voters will tactically vote LD anyway, to have a chance of holding on the Tories need to keep their core vote and get them out to vote

Typical Tory smear-campaigning, devoid of any positive reason to vote for them at all.

I guess you have never had a LD Focus if you think they are full of positive reasons to vote for them, over half of LD literature is normally negative about the local Tory or Labour council or the government!

There's a big gap between devoid of and full of....

OnlyLivingBoy

CarlottaVance said:

Off to a great start:

Boris Johnson's spokesman says the Prime Minister will transform the NHS into "a blockbuster health care system in the age of Netflix."

Asked repeatedly to explain what this means, Johnson's spokesman is unable to say which features of Netflix he believes the NHS should imitate.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1534129493845196801

You have to pay for it?

wooliedyed

CarlottaVance said:

Off to a great start:

Boris Johnson's spokesman says the Prime Minister will transform the NHS into "a blockbuster health care system in the age of Netflix."

Asked repeatedly to explain what this means, Johnson's spokesman is unable to say which features of Netflix he believes the NHS should imitate.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1534129493845196801

Tbf what a stupid fucking question to ask to a stupid meaningless soundbite

Leon

BartholomewRoberts said:

Roger said:

We have two very sound economists on here. One who sleeps with the angels* the other who doesn't but I've just had a very enlightening lesson as I followed Bartholomew and OnlyLivingBoy trying patiently to explain some basics to Leon.

To be fair the subtlety of GDP and GDP per annum was something I also didn't understand but unlike Leon who was last seen still arguing the point at least I do now!

* A lefty

As we said, GDP is a flow and trying to understand it and its nuances properly is like the economic equivalent of fluid dynamics, difficult but not that interesting to most people.

Except, Ellwood did not say "a year". I was right

If Roger hadn't added that "a year", coz he misheard (or misunderstood?), then there would have been no argument and none of us would have wasted fifteen bloody hours

Have we taken a permanent hit of 4% to our economic output? Quite possibly. Brexit is a drag. Tho it is extremely hard to be precise because of huge confounding factors, namely Plague and War

Carnyx

Sandpit said:

FPT:

Malmesbury said:

A chap I knew actually wrote a shuttle landing simulator for the space shuttle - it was designed for a laptop format Sparc station (IIRC) that would be velcro'd in position on the actual space shuttle in orbit. The pilots could then practise landings. The idea was that they could practise landings on longer missions.

According to him, they programmed it with the various aerodynamic coefficients etc for the actual Shuttle. It was an early example of a flight simulator based on actual physics.

No one in the team could land it - crashed every time.

A bit worried, after some checking of their work, they asked someone from the astronaut office to come and try it.

The astronaut did a bunch of landings, apparently quite easily. He thanked them for the quality of the work....

Ha ha, brilliant story!

The Shuttle landing was totally nuts to even experienced pilots, an insane exercise in energy management that sees the thing drop tens of thousands of feet per minute, all programmed into a flight director on a head-up display, to keep the pilot on course. Oh, and it’s a glider, so no going around around if you get it wrong!

https://youtube.com/watch?v=kkjDr5-I5-s

ISTR that the Shuttle falls faster than a house brick [not entirely surprising if area/volume scaling is remembered].

SirNorfolkPassmore

On topic, I think this leaflet represents a classic misunderstanding of how by-elections work.

It assumes people are daft, and cannot distinguish between elections. People in Tiverton & Honiton know that the Tories will remain in office regardless of the by-election. What they are doing, is casting judgment on Johnson (a protest vote - or supportive vote as the case may be), electing a "local campaigner" who will stand up for them on various issues, and highlighting whatever the big local issues are.

The best bet for the Tories is to emphasise the merits of their own candidate (and potentially any flaws with their rival), and visible things the party has done or will do for the locality. They should also probably bite the bullet on being positive about Johnson - it's a bad issue for them at the moment, but the Tory campaign completely ignoring him doesn't mean the voters will.

Being negative about Lib Dem policy works better at a General Election.

williamglenn

CarlottaVance said:

Off to a great start:

Boris Johnson's spokesman says the Prime Minister will transform the NHS into "a blockbuster health care system in the age of Netflix."

Asked repeatedly to explain what this means, Johnson's spokesman is unable to say which features of Netflix he believes the NHS should imitate.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1534129493845196801

A video rental chain in an age of streaming services?

Heathener

HYUFD said:

Heathener said:

Two heavy by-election defeats coming: in both Red Wall and Blue Wall. If tory MPs didn't have the gumption to administer the coup de grace, the voters will.

A right-left sucker punch that would have made Muhammed Ali proud.

Wakefield is red wall ie a normally Labour Leave Northern or Midlands or Welsh seat that went Tory in 2019.

Tiverton and Honiton however isn't really blue wall ie a normally Tory Remain seat in the Home Counties which the LDs should see as a top target eg Chesham and Amersham. It should demographically as a Tory Leave seat be as strong Tory as Labour Remain seats are still strong Labour

I am really, really, really, looking forward to your confidence about Boris being shown to fail at the next General Election. You are in for a complete shock.

In the meantime, the idea that Tiverton & Honiton is not Blue Wall is an absolute joke. Seriously. Even in the 1997 New Labour landslide, it still returned a Conservative.

It was 56% Leave which is not stonkingly leave and reflects the rural, farming, sensibilities at that time in the south-west. It's a strongly right-wing constituency:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Tiverton and Honiton

It's proper full-on farming country. It has never returned anything other than a true blue tory.

Recent majorities have been 20,000 on a 60% vote share.

If Tiverton & Honiton falls at a General Election then the Conservatives will have under 84 seats left in Parliament!!!!!
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html

Jonathan

CarlottaVance said:

Off to a great start:

Boris Johnson's spokesman says the Prime Minister will transform the NHS into "a blockbuster health care system in the age of Netflix."

Asked repeatedly to explain what this means, Johnson's spokesman is unable to say which features of Netflix he believes the NHS should imitate.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1534129493845196801

There must be a random policy generator on the Internet that Boris uses that mangles some trendy (usually a digital thing) with some intractable aspect of foreign policy.

How long till we have a policy to "Spotify the Criminal Justice system" or a "DVLA for the TikTok generation"?

Alistair

CarlottaVance said:

Off to a great start:

Boris Johnson's spokesman says the Prime Minister will transform the NHS into "a blockbuster health care system in the age of Netflix."

Asked repeatedly to explain what this means, Johnson's spokesman is unable to say which features of Netflix he believes the NHS should imitate.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1534129493845196801

Errr, am I missing something here: Blockbuster went bust in the age of Netflix. He seems to be promising to close the NHS.

Famously they passed on buying Netflix at an early stage.

RochdalePioneers

An absolutely stupid leaflet by the local Tories who utterly miss the point of this byelection. The local MP had to resign in shame because he was watching two upstanding (fnarr fnarr) people having fun on a tractor. The PM has been found to break the law and is correctly regarded by the majority of people as a liar.

So who cares what the LDs want in government? Who cares who they might side with after the election? This isn't about any of those things. This is a byelection protest vote to show the lickspittle Tories who still have confidence in BJ that they are wrong.

"I can vote LibDem now, get a new Tory leader, then vote Tory again at the general election" is the thinking, as it is with any similar byelection.

What utter prannock wrote that leaflet? A waste of cash during the short campaign and a waste of volunteer legs delivering it.

RochdalePioneers

AugustusCarp2 said:

OK, just to be fanciful for a moment - what are the odds on last night's VoNC fiasco for the Tories causing them to come third in both by elections?

Third in both? Lengthy...

Carnyx

wooliedyed said:

CarlottaVance said:

Off to a great start:

Boris Johnson's spokesman says the Prime Minister will transform the NHS into "a blockbuster health care system in the age of Netflix."

Asked repeatedly to explain what this means, Johnson's spokesman is unable to say which features of Netflix he believes the NHS should imitate.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1534129493845196801

Tbf what a stupid fucking question to ask to a stupid meaningless soundbite

Is it? Blockbuster was [edity] and still is, sort of, a very well known video rental chain. What the PM seems to be saying is that we're getting the equivalent of a Betamax in the era of VHS. WTF?!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockbuster_LLC

bondegezou

HYUFD said:

Good Tory leaflet in Tiverton and Honiton. It is a Leave voting and traditional Tory area and hitting the LDs hard on their opposition to Brexit and tighter border controls and tougher prison sentences will go down well there. Also ensures the literature is not all one way from the Liberals.

The Conservative candidate is a well known local woman and I think has a chance of holding the seat which the Tories won with 60% of the vote in 2019. Most Labour voters will tactically vote LD anyway, to have a chance of holding on the Tories need to keep their core vote and get them out to vote

A well known local woman who is being hidden away and not allowed to talk to anyone.

Nigelb

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

Heathener said:

Leon said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

DavidL said:

Keystone said:

Roger said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

moonshine said:

Quite amazing to me there are so many Tory MPs too thick to realise the obvious. Namely, that excluding the weirdos, everyone wants to move on from the Brexit wars and no one wants to be reminded about covid for the rest of their lives.

It’s not fully his fault but Boris is the living embodiment of Brexit and Covid. Every time you see his face, your brain instinctively goes back to those two things. Ugh.

They are not the only politicians too thick to realise this of course. Ed Davey and Kier Starmer suffer from the same brain malfunction, with their campaign literature and public statements still variously dominated by “we opposed Brexit” and partygate.

Sod off the whole miserable lot of you. We all need to move on.

Thats already happened. The only mention we get of Brexit now is the need to make it work. Hard to ignore the thing when it is directly impacting people via its role in the CoL crisis. So its about solutions, not trying to replay the war.

Unfortunately for all of us, the only solutions anyone has come up with are either a further Brexit atop the Brexit, or to dilute the Brexit we have. Perhaps they are the only solutions that exist.

And as I just posted in response to Scott, those are the only solutions in town - a classic Euro fudge. The Good News is that the big part of that is already in place. We have ceded control of standards to the EU. We have unilaterally demolished customs checks on our side.

When you are both absolutely aligned and will remain so by default, it makes an agreement recognising this reality much easier than if both sides were sabre rattling beforehand. This government have given up their positions on customs and divergence. The only thing that matters is free movement and a fudge can be found there as well in exchange for "spiteful" EU nations like Spain abandoning the 3rd country restrictions on British economic migrants which we demanded.

I just heard Tobias Elwood saying that Brexit was costing us 4% of GDP a year and this was unsustainable. If this is now accepted then isn't it time one of the parties started facing the reality that either rejoining or joining one of the allied organisations is not just an option anymore its compulsory. It was said yesterday that the French and German growth figures are dwarfing ours. Is anyone adding 2+2 and making 4 yet?.

I don't think pointing at individual growth points is really valid. You'd need to look at manufacturing vs services, and also look at exports Vs trade within the EU-27.

There is a much larger discussion to be had about the UK's future economic direction.

But we have now wasted more than 6 years with all this Brexit nonsense when there were more pressing things to focus on.

History will not judge this period kindly

People continue to insist that Brexit is costing ever more absurd levels of GDP. It is plainly nonsense on several levels. Firstly, there are always far more significant effects on our economic performance. In the last couple of years we have had Covid, Ukraine, Russian sanctions and international disruption on trade from China. Identifying any underlying effect from something as trivial as Brexit in the face of all that noise is just impossible. Secondly, the noise is repeated in many other countries as well. So, any minor reduction in trade with the UK is dwarfed by the effect of economic sanctions with Russia for most EU countries. Demand in these countries has been significantly impacted, reducing the market for exports. Thirdly, as others have already pointed out, the UK is performing at least as well as the EU's major economies in highly distorted times. If the Brexit effects were anything like 4% GPD what they are saying is that we would be outgrowing these countries by absurd numbers.

But there is something in the distraction point. We are not addressing our underlying problems in productivity, investment, training and infrastructure. The potential wins in these areas again exceed any Brexit effect by an order of magnitude or more but they are rarely discussed. One of my many disappointments with this government is that levelling up, which could have started to address these problems, especially the last of them, has proved more of a soundbite than a policy.

This government has no clear purpose. It has no clear agenda. It has no focus on what can be done at the margins as we are buffeted by inflation, sanctions, Chinese disruption and many other factors. It is all about surviving the week. Not since the latter days of Gordon Brown have we had such chaos.

Roger is fundamentally clueless about economics.

"Brexit is costing us 4% of GDP every year". What even does this mean?? That without Brexit we'd be growing at 8% this year, much faster than China? Or that our GDP is shrinking 4% a year, so we are experiencing a devastating recession every year, which we clearly are not?

There should be a PB Threshold of Stupidity which, if you cross, you are suspended from PB for a week. I suggest Roger gets a 38 week ban

There is a difference between GDP and GDP Growth. Probably Roger is talking about the former and you the latter.

There is no way of interpreting Roger's remark without concluding it is witless

There you go again. You just can't help but going Ad Hominem, can you? With everyone.

Can't you just try and stop yourself? Your point about GDP may have been really valid but you chase people off this board, like Alastair Meekes, by being so flaming personally nasty all the time.

I didn't say Roger is witless. I said his remark is. And it is. There is no way Britain is "losing 4% of GDP every year because Brexit". So, no it was not "ad hominem"

Besides: what do you expect me to do? Ignore an obviously false statement out of politeness? Say "Well done Rog on your great insight", even though it is clearly and foolishly wrong?

If I say something as daft as that - and it hardly unknown - please feel free to call my remark witless. I won't complain, I will thank you for pointing out my egregious error

And I'm sure if you asked Mr Meeks why he left PB, his answer won't be "because people chased me off"

An economist writes: Actually Roger is absolutely right and you have misunderstood what he has said. Since I don't engage in ad hominem remarks I won't call you witless.
GDP is a flow concept. It measures the amount of output (or equivalently spending or income, the three are theoretically equivalent) produced in a given economy over a given period of time. The statement that Brexit has cost us x% of GDP per year (I won't comment on whether x is 4 or some other number as estimates differ, but FWIW 4 seems reasonable and is in the ballpark of the BOE and OBR estimates) means that the level of GDP is 4% below what it would have been if we hadn't Brexited, every year or every quarter. It doesn't imply lower GDP growth for ever, simply a permanently lower level of GDP vs this counterfactual.
I hope this helps.

lol. So we Brexited six years ago and we've lost (on average?) 4% GDP a year and our economy is now about 20% smaller than it was in 2016? Crumbs!

Or is this from 2020 when we actually Brexited so we've lost 4% and counting, except that of course Covid intervened in 2020 and we lost about 10% of the economy due to that, then regained it, and how anyone can perceive actual Brexit effects in the middle of a global plague and now a war, fuck knows


And of course Roger said we are "losing 4% of GDP a year". Which means - in normal, sane English - 4% every year. If I say I earn about £30k a year, I mean every year. Otherwise I would specifiy "THIS year"

Apart from that, your comment is mere sophistry. I will refrain from calling it witless, in case I upset @Heathener

Again I think you are misunderstanding how GDP works. Saying GDP is 4% lower every year than it would have been otherwise does not involve the economy shrinking by 4% every year. Since GDP is a measure of national income, the simplest analogy is with personal income. Imagine you lose your job and your new job pays 4% less than your old job. Every year you are earning 4% less than you would have been if you stayed in your old job. This doesn't mean that your pay is going down by 4% every year.

This is my last comment on this, as I have dildos to attend to, and chisels lying idle

Let's go back to Roger's original remark

"Brexit is costing us 4% GDP a year"

A year, in ordinary English, means "every year", as I have said. "I earn £20k a year." "I drink thirty gallons of wine a year". "I go abroad 200 times a year". It clearly means EVERY year, not THIS year, let alone THIS YEAR BUT NEVER AGAIN

There are, in that light, only two common sense interpretations of Roger's comment. The first is: Brexit is costing us 4% of Britain's total economic output, our GDP, which has shrunk 4% every year since Brexit, and will likely continue to do so. But that is nonsense, as we all know

The other more charitable interpretation is that by Brexiting we are losing 4% potential growth, an opportunity cost, every year - and that without Brexit GDP growth would be, say, annually 7% rather than its present ~3%. But again, that's bollocks, for multiple reasons (and how would we even know in the context of Covid and war?)

I conclude that Roger's remark was witless. But I am sure he is a lovely guy, and he is very good on movies, and tells some cracking anecdotes, when he is in the mood, so peace to all

Good day

I don't think you understand this stuff at all. Roger was referring to the level of GDP not the growth rate. Whether you agree that the number is 4% or not is a different question, but he expressed it completely clearly and accurately. Go back and read my explanations of this, and if that doesn't work go and read up on GDP somewhere else. And stop calling people witless when you are speaking from a position of ignorance.

I went back to the original quote that Roger sourced. Here it is. Tobias Ellwood, Tory MP



"Political distance from Brussels has been achieved. This is not up for question. However, economically speaking, there is vast room for improvement. The OBR calculates, in its current form, that Brexit is reducing our GDP by four per cent. This compares to around 1.5 per cent caused by Covid."


https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/we-can-upgrade-brexit-and-ease-the-cost-of-living-by-going-back-to-the-single-market


Gosh. No mention of "a year". No mention of this year next year any year. No arse-wobblingly stupid YEAR thing

Just "4%"

A bald total figure. He surely means total lost potential growth. He didn't say we are "losing 4% GDP a year" because that would be RIDIC. Roger misheard

You're categorically wrong Leon.

If it has cost us 4% this year, then it will also cost us 4% next year and the year after, unless we find a way to regain the lost growth.

I think Elwood is completely wrong on this matter personally and the statistics are bullshit made from flawed models rather than reality, but adding the words "a year" is redundant and has been done for dramatic effect, they are correct.

My objection is to the 4% claim which I think is unmitigated and hubristic bullshit, rather than a year claim which is just redundant language used for dramatic effect.

lol. Ellwood didn't say "a year". Roger misheard. I am right

Since I know you are but a humble flint knapper, I would recommend that you get in touch with any writer friends you may have, if you know any acquaintances involved with writing. People don't always need to use the same words, to mean the same thing.

What Roger said and what Ellwood said mean exactly the same thing, but Roger added redundant words to dramatic effect. That is a trick writers use, but it isn't wrong.

If we have permanently lost 4% then we have lost 4% a year, our growth is not down 4% every year, but our GDP is, since GDP and GDP growth are not the same thing. Yes GDP is an annual flow figure that is what it means even if the extra words that Roger added were a redundant truism added to an already flawed claim..

@Leon is resorting the the well known writerly technique of repetition. No need for the rest of us to respond in kind.

RochdalePioneers

HYUFD said:

Heathener said:

Two heavy by-election defeats coming: in both Red Wall and Blue Wall. If tory MPs didn't have the gumption to administer the coup de grace, the voters will.

A right-left sucker punch that would have made Muhammed Ali proud.

Wakefield is red wall ie a normally Labour Leave Northern or Midlands or Welsh seat that went Tory in 2019.

Tiverton and Honiton however isn't really blue wall ie a normally Tory Remain seat in the Home Counties which the LDs should see as a top target eg Chesham and Amersham. It should demographically as a Tory Leave seat be as strong Tory as Labour Remain seats are still strong Labour

Another delusional post from our cheery Forza Boris rep. A seat which has been solid Tory since 1885* isn't the Blue Wall.

(*bar a 1 year Liberal a century ago in the Tiverton half).

BartholomewRoberts

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Roger said:

We have two very sound economists on here. One who sleeps with the angels* the other who doesn't but I've just had a very enlightening lesson as I followed Bartholomew and OnlyLivingBoy trying patiently to explain some basics to Leon.

To be fair the subtlety of GDP and GDP per annum was something I also didn't understand but unlike Leon who was last seen still arguing the point at least I do now!

* A lefty

As we said, GDP is a flow and trying to understand it and its nuances properly is like the economic equivalent of fluid dynamics, difficult but not that interesting to most people.

Except, Ellwood did not say "a year". I was right

If Roger hadn't added that "a year", coz he misheard (or misunderstood?), then there would have been no argument and none of us would have wasted fifteen bloody hours

Have we taken a permanent hit of 4% to our economic output? Quite possibly. Brexit is a drag. Tho it is extremely hard to be precise because of huge confounding factors, namely Plague and War

He didn't need to say "a year" because it is tautologically redundant.

Just as the words I just used, all tautologies are redundant.

HYUFD

bondegezou said:

HYUFD said:

Good Tory leaflet in Tiverton and Honiton. It is a Leave voting and traditional Tory area and hitting the LDs hard on their opposition to Brexit and tighter border controls and tougher prison sentences will go down well there. Also ensures the literature is not all one way from the Liberals.

The Conservative candidate is a well known local woman and I think has a chance of holding the seat which the Tories won with 60% of the vote in 2019. Most Labour voters will tactically vote LD anyway, to have a chance of holding on the Tories need to keep their core vote and get them out to vote

A well known local woman who is being hidden away and not allowed to talk to anyone.

I am sure she is canvassing hard and delivering hard, the fact she is not speaking to the media is a good thing, they don't have a vote in the by election only local voters do!

wooliedyed

Carnyx said:

wooliedyed said:

CarlottaVance said:

Off to a great start:

Boris Johnson's spokesman says the Prime Minister will transform the NHS into "a blockbuster health care system in the age of Netflix."

Asked repeatedly to explain what this means, Johnson's spokesman is unable to say which features of Netflix he believes the NHS should imitate.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1534129493845196801

Tbf what a stupid fucking question to ask to a stupid meaningless soundbite

Is it? Blockbuster was a very well known video rental chain. What the PM seems to be saying is that we're getting the equivalent of a Betamax in the era of VHS. WTF?!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockbuster_LLC

They should be asking what are you going to do rather than pandering to a stupid soundbite and thinking that in some way is cutting journalism
Embarass them - ok, put aside the soundbite, what are you going to do??!

Carnyx

HYUFD said:

bondegezou said:

HYUFD said:

Good Tory leaflet in Tiverton and Honiton. It is a Leave voting and traditional Tory area and hitting the LDs hard on their opposition to Brexit and tighter border controls and tougher prison sentences will go down well there. Also ensures the literature is not all one way from the Liberals.

The Conservative candidate is a well known local woman and I think has a chance of holding the seat which the Tories won with 60% of the vote in 2019. Most Labour voters will tactically vote LD anyway, to have a chance of holding on the Tories need to keep their core vote and get them out to vote

A well known local woman who is being hidden away and not allowed to talk to anyone.

I am sure she is canvassing hard and delivering hard, the fact she is not speaking to the media is a good thing, they don't have a vote in the by election only local voters do!

How do you think voters find out about the election? Osmosis? Mysterious emanations? Morphic resonance?

Applicant

Carnyx said:

wooliedyed said:

CarlottaVance said:

Off to a great start:

Boris Johnson's spokesman says the Prime Minister will transform the NHS into "a blockbuster health care system in the age of Netflix."

Asked repeatedly to explain what this means, Johnson's spokesman is unable to say which features of Netflix he believes the NHS should imitate.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1534129493845196801

Tbf what a stupid fucking question to ask to a stupid meaningless soundbite

Is it? Blockbuster was [edity] and still is, sort of, a very well known video rental chain. What the PM seems to be saying is that we're getting the equivalent of a Betamax in the era of VHS. WTF?!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockbuster_LLC

Betamax was technically better than VHS, but so much more expensive that it wasn't worth it for most people.

Carnyx

Applicant said:

Carnyx said:

wooliedyed said:

CarlottaVance said:

Off to a great start:

Boris Johnson's spokesman says the Prime Minister will transform the NHS into "a blockbuster health care system in the age of Netflix."

Asked repeatedly to explain what this means, Johnson's spokesman is unable to say which features of Netflix he believes the NHS should imitate.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1534129493845196801

Tbf what a stupid fucking question to ask to a stupid meaningless soundbite

Is it? Blockbuster was [edity] and still is, sort of, a very well known video rental chain. What the PM seems to be saying is that we're getting the equivalent of a Betamax in the era of VHS. WTF?!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockbuster_LLC

Betamax was technically better than VHS, but so much more expensive that it wasn't worth it for most people.

Okay, that just shows the dangers of that sort of crap soundbite. Read 'Amstrad PCW floppy disk in the age of the hard drive' if you prefer!

kjh

HYUFD said:

Good Tory leaflet in Tiverton and Honiton. It is a Leave voting and traditional Tory area and hitting the LDs hard on their opposition to Brexit and tighter border controls and tougher prison sentences will go down well there. Also ensures the literature is not all one way from the Liberals.

The Conservative candidate is a well known local woman and I think has a chance of holding the seat which the Tories won with 60% of the vote in 2019. Most Labour voters will tactically vote LD anyway, to have a chance of holding on the Tories need to keep their core vote and get them out to vote

You do know that is nonsense don't you. Most leaflets are not read. They last 10 seconds from the door to the bin. The impact is getting a leaflet. A nice big yellow one with Lib Dem plastered over the top of it.

So for everyone reading the Tory lies on it, 20 will register another LD leaflet and lack of one from the Tories.

HYUFD

Heathener said:

HYUFD said:

Heathener said:

Two heavy by-election defeats coming: in both Red Wall and Blue Wall. If tory MPs didn't have the gumption to administer the coup de grace, the voters will.

A right-left sucker punch that would have made Muhammed Ali proud.

Wakefield is red wall ie a normally Labour Leave Northern or Midlands or Welsh seat that went Tory in 2019.

Tiverton and Honiton however isn't really blue wall ie a normally Tory Remain seat in the Home Counties which the LDs should see as a top target eg Chesham and Amersham. It should demographically as a Tory Leave seat be as strong Tory as Labour Remain seats are still strong Labour

I am really, really, really, looking forward to your confidence about Boris being shown to fail at the next General Election. You are in for a complete shock.

In the meantime, the idea that Tiverton & Honiton is not Blue Wall is an absolute joke. Seriously. Even in the 1997 New Labour landslide, it still returned a Conservative.

It's proper full-on farming country. It has never returned anything other than a true blue tory.

Recent majorities have been 20,000 on a 60% vote share.

If Tiverton & Honiton falls at a General Election then the Conservatives will have under 84 seats left in Parliament!!!!!
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html

You are misusing the definition.

Red Wall seats are normally Labour seats which voted Leave and went Tory in 2019. Blue Wall seats are normally Tory seats which voted Remain and the LDs are targeting.

Tiverton and Honiton voted Leave not Remain so therefore does not fall under the definition of blue wall even if it has always voted Conservative just as Labour Remain seats do not fall under the definition of red wall.

Yes any seat of a less than popular government is vulnerable to the LDs at a by election but a general election is a different matter and if the Tories are going to hold any seat in a by election a Leave seat they won with 60% of the vote or more at the last general election is it

Taz

Alistair said:

CarlottaVance said:

Off to a great start:

Boris Johnson's spokesman says the Prime Minister will transform the NHS into "a blockbuster health care system in the age of Netflix."

Asked repeatedly to explain what this means, Johnson's spokesman is unable to say which features of Netflix he believes the NHS should imitate.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1534129493845196801

Errr, am I missing something here: Blockbuster went bust in the age of Netflix. He seems to be promising to close the NHS.

Famously they passed on buying Netflix at an early stage.

Does anyone know the way......to Blockbuster.

rottenborough

Enrique Tarrio, the former chairman of the Proud Boys, and four other members of the far-right group were indicted on Monday for seditious conspiracy for their roles in the storming of the Capitol on Jan. 6 of last year, some of the most serious criminal charges to be brought in the Justice Department’s sprawling investigation of the assault.

NY Times

Up to 20 years jail time if found guilty.

Heathener

Had a curious thing occur last night. Not sure I should tell this but I'm going to because it's a betting site and I like helping my sistas and bruvvers.

Basically, I have a bet on the Next PM. Without going into detail, I can say that this is one of the Labour front benchers. In fact I have a few of these, but that's beside the point.

So yesterday I would STILL have been able to cash out that bet, taking more than my stake, even up to the declared result at 9pm.

I mention this because had Johnson lost, then there is zero chance of the next PM being a Labour MP. But I could have cashed out.

Really hope the betting company don't see this in case there's a repeat!

IshmaelZ

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Roger said:

We have two very sound economists on here. One who sleeps with the angels* the other who doesn't but I've just had a very enlightening lesson as I followed Bartholomew and OnlyLivingBoy trying patiently to explain some basics to Leon.

To be fair the subtlety of GDP and GDP per annum was something I also didn't understand but unlike Leon who was last seen still arguing the point at least I do now!

* A lefty

As we said, GDP is a flow and trying to understand it and its nuances properly is like the economic equivalent of fluid dynamics, difficult but not that interesting to most people.

Except, Ellwood did not say "a year". I was right

If Roger hadn't added that "a year", coz he misheard (or misunderstood?), then there would have been no argument and none of us would have wasted fifteen bloody hours

Have we taken a permanent hit of 4% to our economic output? Quite possibly. Brexit is a drag. Tho it is extremely hard to be precise because of huge confounding factors, namely Plague and War

He didn't need to say "a year" because it is tautologically redundant.

Just as the words I just used, all tautologies are redundant.

Not all redundancies are tautological and you mean pleonastic anyway

malcolmg

TOPPING said:

The other thing is that people love Boris for his indefatigable optimism, his cheery demeanour and his generally infectious good heart.

Without that his USP is much diminished.

Will the vote strip him of the very thing people are attracted to.

Who are these absolutely cretinous idiots who mistake an arrogant arsehole for your flowery description Topping. Is it any wonder the UK is like a banana republic when we have people like that walking the streets.

Stuartinromford

RochdalePioneers said:

AugustusCarp2 said:

OK, just to be fanciful for a moment - what are the odds on last night's VoNC fiasco for the Tories causing them to come third in both by elections?

Third in both? Lengthy...

And in a way, that's more recoverable for the Conservatives. It looks bad the following morning, but that's all.

The thing that ought to really scare the Conservatives is Libs down to negligible in Wakefield and Lab down to nearly nothing in Tiverton. If the public decide that kicking the Tories is the most important thing, that's what they will do. And there's not a lot that the Conservatives (certainly not these Conservatives) can do about it.

RochdalePioneers

We were all here for the last hurrah of Forza Boris. Hartlepools byelection seems like a long time ago, but was the absolute zenith of the clown's personality cult. SInce then its been downhill all the way - the only held byelection being a sympathy vote after the tragic murder of a decent Tory MP. Every other election will be lost.

Its over.

Dura_Ace

wooliedyed said:

CarlottaVance said:

Off to a great start:

Boris Johnson's spokesman says the Prime Minister will transform the NHS into "a blockbuster health care system in the age of Netflix."

Asked repeatedly to explain what this means, Johnson's spokesman is unable to say which features of Netflix he believes the NHS should imitate.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1534129493845196801

Tbf what a stupid fucking question to ask to a stupid meaningless soundbite

It's not even difficult to answer - unless you're Johnson.

Focus on the customer experience with hyper connected architecture. Disintermediate the end user from the producer using pervasive technology. Produce an original TV series based on the Resident Evil franchise.

Easy.

HYUFD

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

Good Tory leaflet in Tiverton and Honiton. It is a Leave voting and traditional Tory area and hitting the LDs hard on their opposition to Brexit and tighter border controls and tougher prison sentences will go down well there. Also ensures the literature is not all one way from the Liberals.

The Conservative candidate is a well known local woman and I think has a chance of holding the seat which the Tories won with 60% of the vote in 2019. Most Labour voters will tactically vote LD anyway, to have a chance of holding on the Tories need to keep their core vote and get them out to vote

You do know that is nonsense don't you. Most leaflets are not read. They last 10 seconds from the door to the bin. The impact is getting a leaflet. A nice big yellow one with Lib Dem plastered over the top of it.

So for everyone reading the Tory lies on it, 20 will register another LD leaflet and lack of one from the Tories.

In 20 seconds anyone receiving it will read the LDs want to reverse Brexit, voted against plans to strengthen our borders, voted against tougher sentences, want higher fuel duty and would put Labour in government now.

Even if they put it in the bin a minute after receiving it

LostPassword

AugustusCarp2 said:

OK, just to be fanciful for a moment - what are the odds on last night's VoNC fiasco for the Tories causing them to come third in both by elections?

I think tactical voting is back, so the chances of the Tories coming third is very slim. Most likely all deposits will be lost except for two Tories and one each for Labour and Lib Dems.

bondegezou

CarlottaVance said:

Off to a great start:

Boris Johnson's spokesman says the Prime Minister will transform the NHS into "a blockbuster health care system in the age of Netflix."

Asked repeatedly to explain what this means, Johnson's spokesman is unable to say which features of Netflix he believes the NHS should imitate.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1534129493845196801

You have to pay a subscription to use it?

It automatically starts the next operation unless you press a button really quickly?

BartholomewRoberts

IshmaelZ said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Roger said:

We have two very sound economists on here. One who sleeps with the angels* the other who doesn't but I've just had a very enlightening lesson as I followed Bartholomew and OnlyLivingBoy trying patiently to explain some basics to Leon.

To be fair the subtlety of GDP and GDP per annum was something I also didn't understand but unlike Leon who was last seen still arguing the point at least I do now!

* A lefty

As we said, GDP is a flow and trying to understand it and its nuances properly is like the economic equivalent of fluid dynamics, difficult but not that interesting to most people.

Except, Ellwood did not say "a year". I was right

If Roger hadn't added that "a year", coz he misheard (or misunderstood?), then there would have been no argument and none of us would have wasted fifteen bloody hours

Have we taken a permanent hit of 4% to our economic output? Quite possibly. Brexit is a drag. Tho it is extremely hard to be precise because of huge confounding factors, namely Plague and War

He didn't need to say "a year" because it is tautologically redundant.

Just as the words I just used, all tautologies are redundant.

Not all redundancies are tautological and you mean pleonastic anyway

I'm not a linguist, so will take your word for it, though your first half of the sentence sounds a bit "all dogs are animals, but not all animals are dogs".

Carnyx

HYUFD said:

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

Good Tory leaflet in Tiverton and Honiton. It is a Leave voting and traditional Tory area and hitting the LDs hard on their opposition to Brexit and tighter border controls and tougher prison sentences will go down well there. Also ensures the literature is not all one way from the Liberals.

The Conservative candidate is a well known local woman and I think has a chance of holding the seat which the Tories won with 60% of the vote in 2019. Most Labour voters will tactically vote LD anyway, to have a chance of holding on the Tories need to keep their core vote and get them out to vote

You do know that is nonsense don't you. Most leaflets are not read. They last 10 seconds from the door to the bin. The impact is getting a leaflet. A nice big yellow one with Lib Dem plastered over the top of it.

So for everyone reading the Tory lies on it, 20 will register another LD leaflet and lack of one from the Tories.

In 20 seconds anyone receiving it will read the LDs want to reverse Brexit, voted against plans to strengthen our borders, voted against tougher sentences, want higher fuel duty and would put Labour in government now.

Even if they put it in the bin a minute after receiving it

If it doesn't earn the Tory candidate disqualification for her agent's passing off Tory bumf as LD leafletry.

FF43

TOPPING said:

The other thing is that people love Boris for his indefatigable optimism, his cheery demeanour and his generally infectious good heart.

Without that his USP is much diminished.

Will the vote strip him of the very thing people are attracted to.

I never liked Johnson, even when he was supposedly a liberal and in my kind of politics. I would like to say I saw through him from the off. It was actually because I never found him funny. I will forgive a lot of someone who makes me laugh. If you play for the laughs and they fall flat, you have nothing left in your favour.

kjh

HYUFD said:

bondegezou said:

HYUFD said:

Good Tory leaflet in Tiverton and Honiton. It is a Leave voting and traditional Tory area and hitting the LDs hard on their opposition to Brexit and tighter border controls and tougher prison sentences will go down well there. Also ensures the literature is not all one way from the Liberals.

The Conservative candidate is a well known local woman and I think has a chance of holding the seat which the Tories won with 60% of the vote in 2019. Most Labour voters will tactically vote LD anyway, to have a chance of holding on the Tories need to keep their core vote and get them out to vote

A well known local woman who is being hidden away and not allowed to talk to anyone.

I am sure she is canvassing hard and delivering hard, the fact she is not speaking to the media is a good thing, they don't have a vote in the by election only local voters do!

It is the activists job to deliver and canvas in a by election. It is the candidates job to put herself about in the media, hustings, etc because she can contact more voters that way than on the doorstep. The reason she isn't, is because she will be hit with impossible questions about Boris. She may be very competent, but nobody can really deal with that.

Applicant

HYUFD said:

Heathener said:

HYUFD said:

Heathener said:

Two heavy by-election defeats coming: in both Red Wall and Blue Wall. If tory MPs didn't have the gumption to administer the coup de grace, the voters will.

A right-left sucker punch that would have made Muhammed Ali proud.

Wakefield is red wall ie a normally Labour Leave Northern or Midlands or Welsh seat that went Tory in 2019.

Tiverton and Honiton however isn't really blue wall ie a normally Tory Remain seat in the Home Counties which the LDs should see as a top target eg Chesham and Amersham. It should demographically as a Tory Leave seat be as strong Tory as Labour Remain seats are still strong Labour

I am really, really, really, looking forward to your confidence about Boris being shown to fail at the next General Election. You are in for a complete shock.

In the meantime, the idea that Tiverton & Honiton is not Blue Wall is an absolute joke. Seriously. Even in the 1997 New Labour landslide, it still returned a Conservative.

It's proper full-on farming country. It has never returned anything other than a true blue tory.

Recent majorities have been 20,000 on a 60% vote share.

If Tiverton & Honiton falls at a General Election then the Conservatives will have under 84 seats left in Parliament!!!!!
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html

You are misusing the definition.

Red Wall seats are normally Labour seats which voted Leave and went Tory in 2019. Blue Wall seats are normally Tory seats which voted Remain and the LDs are targeting.

Tiverton and Honiton voted Leave not Remain so therefore does not fall under the definition of blue wall even if it has always voted Conservative just as Labour Remain seats do not fall under the definition of red wall.

Yes any seat of a less than popular government is vulnerable to the LDs at a by election but a general election is a different matter and if the Tories are going to hold any seat in a by election a Leave seat they won with 60% of the vote or more at the last general election is it

No, that's not what the Red Wall is.

The Red Wall is seats which demographically should have been Tory by 2017 but, for cultural/historical reasons, were still clinging to Labour.

OnlyLivingBoy

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Roger said:

We have two very sound economists on here. One who sleeps with the angels* the other who doesn't but I've just had a very enlightening lesson as I followed Bartholomew and OnlyLivingBoy trying patiently to explain some basics to Leon.

To be fair the subtlety of GDP and GDP per annum was something I also didn't understand but unlike Leon who was last seen still arguing the point at least I do now!

* A lefty

As we said, GDP is a flow and trying to understand it and its nuances properly is like the economic equivalent of fluid dynamics, difficult but not that interesting to most people.

Except, Ellwood did not say "a year". I was right

If Roger hadn't added that "a year", coz he misheard (or misunderstood?), then there would have been no argument and none of us would have wasted fifteen bloody hours

Have we taken a permanent hit of 4% to our economic output? Quite possibly. Brexit is a drag. Tho it is extremely hard to be precise because of huge confounding factors, namely Plague and War

He didn't need to say "a year" because it is tautologically redundant.

Just as the words I just used, all tautologies are redundant.

Arguably adding "each year" clarifies the statement as it indicates that the stated effect is permanent rather than a one-off.
I think Leon's confusion stems from a failure to appreciate that GDP is a flow concept like income, not a stock concept like wealth. This is a mistake made by a surprisingly large number of people. The level of basic economic knowledge, and indeed basic numeracy, in this country is shocking sometimes. In my more charitable moments I imagine that this is probably why the PM keeps lying about things - he genuinely has no concept of numbers. I wonder what his highest STEM qualification is?

HYUFD

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

bondegezou said:

HYUFD said:

Good Tory leaflet in Tiverton and Honiton. It is a Leave voting and traditional Tory area and hitting the LDs hard on their opposition to Brexit and tighter border controls and tougher prison sentences will go down well there. Also ensures the literature is not all one way from the Liberals.

The Conservative candidate is a well known local woman and I think has a chance of holding the seat which the Tories won with 60% of the vote in 2019. Most Labour voters will tactically vote LD anyway, to have a chance of holding on the Tories need to keep their core vote and get them out to vote

A well known local woman who is being hidden away and not allowed to talk to anyone.

I am sure she is canvassing hard and delivering hard, the fact she is not speaking to the media is a good thing, they don't have a vote in the by election only local voters do!

It is the activists job to deliver and canvas in a by election. It is the candidates job to put herself about in the media, hustings, etc because she can contact more voters that way than on the doorstep. The reason she isn't, is because she will be hit with impossible questions about Boris. She may be very competent, but nobody can really deal with that.

No, it is also the candidates job to canvass and meet as many voters as they can door to door. The vast majority of any voters in a by election will not even get the local paper or read a national news report of it or attend a hustings. However if they are met by the candidate face to face at their doorstep it will probably be the only personal contact they get with them all campaign

Leon

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Roger said:

We have two very sound economists on here. One who sleeps with the angels* the other who doesn't but I've just had a very enlightening lesson as I followed Bartholomew and OnlyLivingBoy trying patiently to explain some basics to Leon.

To be fair the subtlety of GDP and GDP per annum was something I also didn't understand but unlike Leon who was last seen still arguing the point at least I do now!

* A lefty

As we said, GDP is a flow and trying to understand it and its nuances properly is like the economic equivalent of fluid dynamics, difficult but not that interesting to most people.

Except, Ellwood did not say "a year". I was right

If Roger hadn't added that "a year", coz he misheard (or misunderstood?), then there would have been no argument and none of us would have wasted fifteen bloody hours

Have we taken a permanent hit of 4% to our economic output? Quite possibly. Brexit is a drag. Tho it is extremely hard to be precise because of huge confounding factors, namely Plague and War

He didn't need to say "a year" because it is tautologically redundant.

Just as the words I just used, all tautologies are redundant.

What's 'appening ere is a FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE!!


If I lost £5,000 this year on the gee-gees I would be £5,000 poorer. And that would be true forever. From that year on, every year, I would be that £5k poorer. It's gone

But if I described this to you this way "I'm losing £5k a year on the gee-gees" then that would be a lie, or nonsensical. You'd think I was losing another £5k EVERY YEAR on my terrible gambling habit

By mistakenly adding "a year" to Ellwood's remarks about GDP, Roger made Ellwood sound as daft as Roger always sounds. But of course Ellwood did not say that, he's not as silly as Rogerdamus. Roger misunderstood

Theuniondivvie

That BJ strikes back manifesto in full.

Applicant

HYUFD said:

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

Good Tory leaflet in Tiverton and Honiton. It is a Leave voting and traditional Tory area and hitting the LDs hard on their opposition to Brexit and tighter border controls and tougher prison sentences will go down well there. Also ensures the literature is not all one way from the Liberals.

The Conservative candidate is a well known local woman and I think has a chance of holding the seat which the Tories won with 60% of the vote in 2019. Most Labour voters will tactically vote LD anyway, to have a chance of holding on the Tories need to keep their core vote and get them out to vote

You do know that is nonsense don't you. Most leaflets are not read. They last 10 seconds from the door to the bin. The impact is getting a leaflet. A nice big yellow one with Lib Dem plastered over the top of it.

So for everyone reading the Tory lies on it, 20 will register another LD leaflet and lack of one from the Tories.

In 20 seconds anyone receiving it will read the LDs want to reverse Brexit, voted against plans to strengthen our borders, voted against tougher sentences, want higher fuel duty and would put Labour in government now.

Even if they put it in the bin a minute after receiving it

Except that what is pictured is the inside of the leaflet.

Heathener

@HYUFD okay, fine. If you want to restrict blue wall to remain seats then fair enough.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_wall_(British_politics)#:~:text=The blue wall is a,Democrats or the Labour Party.

However, this makes it even more remarkable if the tories were to lose T&H to the LibDems. It ought not to be a LibDem target.

Blue southern Britain is turning against Johnson. Far more important than the old fag-ends of Brexit are policies which render this Conservative regime anything but Conservative. Quite aside from all the party shenanigans, Boris has presided over spendthrift policies and ever spiralling taxation.

MattW

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Gardenwalker said:

Sorry to be rude, but the Tory candidate has those mad staring eyes which usually betoken a thyroid disorder.

And the Lib Dem candidate looks like a fraudulent vicar. Something in the teeth.

None of the candidates actually pass muster.

What do you want, Elle McPherson?

A tip for the future - if you're thinking of posting something beginning "Sorry to be rude, but..." which then goes on about the physical attractiveness or otherwise of political candidates, don't do it. It makes you sound like a prick.

I'd say @Gardenwalker sounds middle aged rather than like a prick.

His stereotypical vicar is about 30 years out of date.

These days 40%+ of CofE ordinands are women.

IshmaelZ

HYUFD said:

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

Good Tory leaflet in Tiverton and Honiton. It is a Leave voting and traditional Tory area and hitting the LDs hard on their opposition to Brexit and tighter border controls and tougher prison sentences will go down well there. Also ensures the literature is not all one way from the Liberals.

The Conservative candidate is a well known local woman and I think has a chance of holding the seat which the Tories won with 60% of the vote in 2019. Most Labour voters will tactically vote LD anyway, to have a chance of holding on the Tories need to keep their core vote and get them out to vote

You do know that is nonsense don't you. Most leaflets are not read. They last 10 seconds from the door to the bin. The impact is getting a leaflet. A nice big yellow one with Lib Dem plastered over the top of it.

So for everyone reading the Tory lies on it, 20 will register another LD leaflet and lack of one from the Tories.

In 20 seconds anyone receiving it will read the LDs want to reverse Brexit, voted against plans to strengthen our borders, voted against tougher sentences, want higher fuel duty and would put Labour in government now.

Even if they put it in the bin a minute after receiving it

People will read the headline and think Tory bollocks and read no further

Sandpit

Carnyx said:

Sandpit said:

FPT:

Malmesbury said:

A chap I knew actually wrote a shuttle landing simulator for the space shuttle - it was designed for a laptop format Sparc station (IIRC) that would be velcro'd in position on the actual space shuttle in orbit. The pilots could then practise landings. The idea was that they could practise landings on longer missions.

According to him, they programmed it with the various aerodynamic coefficients etc for the actual Shuttle. It was an early example of a flight simulator based on actual physics.

No one in the team could land it - crashed every time.

A bit worried, after some checking of their work, they asked someone from the astronaut office to come and try it.

The astronaut did a bunch of landings, apparently quite easily. He thanked them for the quality of the work....

Ha ha, brilliant story!

The Shuttle landing was totally nuts to even experienced pilots, an insane exercise in energy management that sees the thing drop tens of thousands of feet per minute, all programmed into a flight director on a head-up display, to keep the pilot on course. Oh, and it’s a glider, so no going around around if you get it wrong!

https://youtube.com/watch?v=kkjDr5-I5-s

ISTR that the Shuttle falls faster than a house brick [not entirely surprising if area/volume scaling is remembered].

That’s the right order of magnitude, it’s about as aerodynamic as a brick. They do the last 10,000’ in less than a minute, which is similar to what a free-fall parachutist experiences.

NASA modified a Gulfstream to fly the Shuttle approach profile for training purposes - an exercise which involved all the flaps, slats, gear and airbrakes out, and the reversers deployed on the engines!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuttle_Training_Aircraft

RochdalePioneers

Stuartinromford said:

RochdalePioneers said:

AugustusCarp2 said:

OK, just to be fanciful for a moment - what are the odds on last night's VoNC fiasco for the Tories causing them to come third in both by elections?

Third in both? Lengthy...

And in a way, that's more recoverable for the Conservatives. It looks bad the following morning, but that's all.

The thing that ought to really scare the Conservatives is Libs down to negligible in Wakefield and Lab down to nearly nothing in Tiverton. If the public decide that kicking the Tories is the most important thing, that's what they will do. And there's not a lot that the Conservatives (certainly not these Conservatives) can do about it.

I doubt we will get to "nearly nothing" but I take your point. The public keep showing in poll after poll that they want Forza Boris out of power. Massive tactical voting in both these seats will point the way to a catastrophic drubbing for the former Tory party.

Think about it. They got smashed in 1997, but retained their heartlands. Now we're looking at getting reamed in their heartland, and losing the more interesting chunks of the red wall with it. Retaining seats in Stoke on Trent and shitbox bits of the West Midlands leaves them not only out of office but reliant on idiots like Jonathan Gulles to rebuild.

Its already "Thats not my Conservative Party" like in the kids books, but this temporary shift could become permanent if the Tory since Victorian times seats depart leaving aggressive "giz some money" types in poor places.

TimS

wooliedyed said:

TimS said:

It’s a shame T&H isn’t a little bit closer. There is a definite chance of the Tories retaining it, and that could really deal a blow to tactical voting in the next GE. Lib Dems need to be established as the main challengers across the South West and leafy Home Counties.

Conversely a clear win for them in Devon with a collapsed Labour vote and a landslide win for Labour in Wakefield with a collapsed Lib Dem vote will really send a message to voters. Perfect case study.

I'd like a little more than 'we are not the Tories' to vote for. Id like to know what i am holding the LDs or Labour to account for.
Once you discount the absurd and arrogant notion that either party are in any way a morally superior or simply a moral choice, you need to see what they offer, not what they are not.

I’m pretty sure in the coming election a lot of voters will be content to vote on exactly those lines: for the “not Tory”. The “not SNP” appears to be the basis of much unionist voting in Scotland.

Heathener

FF43 said:

TOPPING said:

The other thing is that people love Boris for his indefatigable optimism, his cheery demeanour and his generally infectious good heart.

Without that his USP is much diminished.

Will the vote strip him of the very thing people are attracted to.

I never liked Johnson, even when he was supposedly a liberal and in my kind of politics. I would like to say I saw through him from the off. It was actually because I never found him funny. I will forgive a lot of someone who makes me laugh. If you play for the laughs and they fall flat, you have nothing left in your favour.

Yeah my brother saw through him. He thought he was a dreadful mayor and saw all of this coming.

BartholomewRoberts

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Roger said:

We have two very sound economists on here. One who sleeps with the angels* the other who doesn't but I've just had a very enlightening lesson as I followed Bartholomew and OnlyLivingBoy trying patiently to explain some basics to Leon.

To be fair the subtlety of GDP and GDP per annum was something I also didn't understand but unlike Leon who was last seen still arguing the point at least I do now!

* A lefty

As we said, GDP is a flow and trying to understand it and its nuances properly is like the economic equivalent of fluid dynamics, difficult but not that interesting to most people.

Except, Ellwood did not say "a year". I was right

If Roger hadn't added that "a year", coz he misheard (or misunderstood?), then there would have been no argument and none of us would have wasted fifteen bloody hours

Have we taken a permanent hit of 4% to our economic output? Quite possibly. Brexit is a drag. Tho it is extremely hard to be precise because of huge confounding factors, namely Plague and War

He didn't need to say "a year" because it is tautologically redundant.

Just as the words I just used, all tautologies are redundant.

What's 'appening ere is a FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE!!


If I lost £5,000 this year on the gee-gees I would be £5,000 poorer. And that would be true forever. From that year on, every year, I would be that £5k poorer. It's gone

But if I described this to you this way "I'm losing £5k a year on the gee-gees" then that would be a lie, or nonsensical. You'd think I was losing another £5k EVERY YEAR on my terrible gambling habit

By mistakenly adding "a year" to Ellwood's remarks about GDP, Roger made Ellwood sound as daft as Roger always sounds. But of course Ellwood did not say that, he's not as silly as Rogerdamus. Roger misunderstood

Head > Desk > Thump > Picard Facepalm.

Your gee-gees is a one off, its gone forever but it won't be lost again next year.

GDP falls are permanent, what you lose this year you will lose again next year and the year after and the year after that because your flow has been permanently reduced. Its a £5000 hit to your income that you will feel again next year because it will be reduced again next year, it is not a one-off expenditure. GDP growth is permanent too, what you gain this year you will gain again next year even with no extra GDP growth because the flow has permanently increased. GDP is every year, what Roger said and what Ellwood said mean exactly the same thing, that is what it means!

What Roger said is what Ellwood meant, he didn't change the meaning.

Cookie

Applicant said:

HYUFD said:

Heathener said:

HYUFD said:

Heathener said:

Two heavy by-election defeats coming: in both Red Wall and Blue Wall. If tory MPs didn't have the gumption to administer the coup de grace, the voters will.

A right-left sucker punch that would have made Muhammed Ali proud.

Wakefield is red wall ie a normally Labour Leave Northern or Midlands or Welsh seat that went Tory in 2019.

Tiverton and Honiton however isn't really blue wall ie a normally Tory Remain seat in the Home Counties which the LDs should see as a top target eg Chesham and Amersham. It should demographically as a Tory Leave seat be as strong Tory as Labour Remain seats are still strong Labour

I am really, really, really, looking forward to your confidence about Boris being shown to fail at the next General Election. You are in for a complete shock.

In the meantime, the idea that Tiverton & Honiton is not Blue Wall is an absolute joke. Seriously. Even in the 1997 New Labour landslide, it still returned a Conservative.

It's proper full-on farming country. It has never returned anything other than a true blue tory.

Recent majorities have been 20,000 on a 60% vote share.

If Tiverton & Honiton falls at a General Election then the Conservatives will have under 84 seats left in Parliament!!!!!
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html

You are misusing the definition.

Red Wall seats are normally Labour seats which voted Leave and went Tory in 2019. Blue Wall seats are normally Tory seats which voted Remain and the LDs are targeting.

Tiverton and Honiton voted Leave not Remain so therefore does not fall under the definition of blue wall even if it has always voted Conservative just as Labour Remain seats do not fall under the definition of red wall.

Yes any seat of a less than popular government is vulnerable to the LDs at a by election but a general election is a different matter and if the Tories are going to hold any seat in a by election a Leave seat they won with 60% of the vote or more at the last general election is it

No, that's not what the Red Wall is.

The Red Wall is seats which demographically should have been Tory by 2017 but, for cultural/historical reasons, were still clinging to Labour.

I'm not sure there is an establised and firm definition. But Red Wall seats for me have these characteristics:
Traditionally Labour
Traditionally Working Class, or at least not particularly high on the socio-economic scale.
Not big city.
Probably Northern or Midland English.

When we talk about how things will go down in the Red Wall, this is the sort of thing we are talking about. I'm not sure it even has to be a seat that the Tories won.

Thus, Blyth Valley, Bishop Auckland, Heywood and Middleton, Leigh, Mansfield, the Walsalls, Bassetlaw, Workington, etc.