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Graham Brady – the man to whom the VONC letters are sent – politicalbetting.com
Graham Brady – the man to whom the VONC letters are sent – politicalbetting.com
There is only one UK political betting story at the moment and that is whether Johnson is going to face a vote of no confidence amongst Conservative MPs. If 54 of them send letters to Graham Brady, the 1922 Committee Chair, he will initiate the ballot at Westminster amongst the parliamentary party. If Johnson fails to win a simple majority in that secret ballot he is is out. This could all be over within 24 hours.
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There is another, and that is whether or not Johnson wins the VONC. As witnessed by the previous thread.
Fascinatingly, another state in the news is facing an imminent and significant VONC. Yesterday, a motion was tabled in parliament against Morgan Johansson, Sweden’s justice minister. It immediately gained support from all 4 parties on the centre-right-far right bloc, making the result dependent on how an Independent MP and/or the Centre Party votes. So what? one might ask. Well, the fact is that the prime minister Magdalena Andersson will resign if the VONC in Johansson wins.
What worries the Establishment is that the Independent MP is a leftist Kurd, profoundly unhappy with the Swedish Government desperately sooking up to Turkey in a probably forlorn attempt to obtain NATO membership. She has indicated she will support the VONC based not upon Johansson’s track record (which is dire), but purely on the Swedish government’s Turkey/Kurdistan moves.
Very, very finely balanced, but we may well be facing yet another political crisis at a worrying time. The GE is in September anyway, but the minority government might not make it that long.
Oddly, the Social Democrats also hit a modern polling high yesterday: 33%. Way ahead of the Moderates and Sweden Democrats. The Liberals and Greens are way below the 4% threshold.
Maybe we already are. (And I will be tactically voting against this Government at the next election anyway)
This is what political watching is all about: huge fun!
Trooping the colour was very, very impressive.
Went to a do after that and at least one more do planned on Sunday and possibly Saturday so it's turning out to be an enjoyable event.
Penny Mordaunt, Liz Truss and Ben Wallace are who I'm watching for at the moment. Nadhim Zahawi is a longshot.
Forget Rishi Sunak.
She won't get it I don't think because the Conservatives will need a decade out of power before they start coming to their senses about what wins elections. They have been blinded by Boris' win in 2019, ignoring how toxically unelectable Jeremy Corbyn was.
He's politically inept, at the bottom of Tory party favourability ratings and was more unpopular than Boris in the most recent polling.
He's holed beneath the waterline.
Okay, maybe it was a bit stunty, I don't know, but Penny Mordaunt went up in my estimation. She showed she cared and those are her roots. She was spontaneously applauded right across the house, perhaps even more by Labour than her own party.
She is far more in touch with real, everyday, lives than Boris Johnson will ever be with his shameless red wall pitching. She's the leader the Conservatives need and as a left-of-centre voter I fear her more than any of the others combined.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12paYQUEGaE
M&S slammed by angry customers for Jubilee sandwich with full boiled egg inside
https://www.gbnews.uk/news/ms-slammed-by-angry-customers-for-jubilee-sandwich-with-full-boiled-egg-inside/309148
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqqqWAI-6QQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGqikf5Neas
That last one is so funny.
She's lost in the Conservative Party. Wish she would come over.
And he, anyone, is guaranteed to go to the members of he transfers in to get 33% of the vote in the final round, with it increasingly likely from 25% MP support upwards.
And just as I judged Boris's support base amongst MPs to be enough in 2019, I feel Sunak once the early rounds announce his presence, has a decent crack this time around.
I think he's as likely to fall in the later voting rounds as to get through, but sneaking in to the member ballot is by no means impossible for him dependent on how other favoured candidates perform.
It's about:
1. Who Cons MPs prefer to shortlist and THEN
2. Who the Membership most like
Whilst I'm prepared to accept that the former are a bit more in touch with ordinary voters and I have very little faith that the latter are.
This makes betting very difficult. It's not like most other markets. We're betting on a niche point of view which is not necessarily in sync with the rest of the nation.
"Bonzo idea" says Number 10, and sends instructions that the UK be renamed Boris Island, to better reflect the ego of its Prime Minister who insists everything he's involved in is named after him (with the exception of his discarded children).
He presided over a massive financial crisis and food shortages. He indulged in sex with other men's wives, which he bragged about, and turned D̶o̶w̶n̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶S̶t̶ the palace into a drunken brothel.
And he thought he was divine
...
Was sorry to read about Mr Jessops blue tits yesterday but, as he posted, that's what happens in nature!
She's a complete lightweight who will likely be a very bad PM, but she will tell the membership what they want to hear.
That comment of yours did make me chuckle.
The BBC funding will inevitably change no matter who is in charge from whatever politics. It's a commercial and contemporary trend that not even something as anachronistic as the licence fee can resist.
Of course, at the time it was more like USSR's poodle!
Or is this another "We Assume He's a Good Chap" convention?
For most of us who enjoy politics and political betting, this is the equivalent of the FA Cup Final. It's not quite a General Election (= Champions League or World Cup) but it is great fun. It's not often a PM is challenged and potentially deposed, even with the Conservative Party.
p.s. Malc may be sore after Ukraine's triumph at Hampden Park?
… Ukraine, the pandemic, and related matters are all contributing factors. But Brexit runs through almost all these developments like a stick of rock. Brexit has reduced the ability of airline companies to recruit baggage handlers and airport staff. Brexit paperwork continually slows down traffic at Dover and other ports.
Brexit has increased export costs for small businesses and larger companies. The prospect of further Brexit tariffs is one reason why Jaguar Land Rover is talking about shifting battery production to Slovakia. The UK government’s sabre-rattling about the Northern Ireland Protocol has increased pressure on the pound by deterring investors.
… there are certain aspects of our national experience that are entirely related to Brexit, and yet no one wants to mention them.
… Brexit is unsayable to the Johnson cabal and the Tory Party. Real world problems cannot be spoken about by a Vote Leave government that is more concerned with its own salvation than the real world, and a party hollowed out by a rightwing takeover that has transformed support for Brexit into the lodestone of what it means to be a Tory or even a loyal citizen.
… Brexit problems have become the invisible terrors of which Tories dare not speak… The 2016 referendum was won because Leave campaigners pretended there would be no negative consequences for leaving the European Union. Any seeds of doubt would have threatened the vote, and to some extent their ongoing silence is a continuation of that.
To acknowledge post-Brexit problems now would risk exposing the dishonesty and delusion at the heart of the Brexit project in the first place. It might lead the public to ask unwelcome questions about why these problems are taking place when Brexiteers denied that they would ever happen, and what Brexiters did to prepare for them or plan for them, and what they propose to do now.
…Terrified of falling into the Red Wall Brexit trap, the Labour Party has been almost as silent as the government, focussing on ‘making Brexit work’, without saying how, and referring to - wait for it -’post-Brexit opportunities’ while studiously ignoring post-Brexit negativities.
And how about the UK media? What about the state broadcaster? Can’t they ask the questions that politicians aren’t asking? They could, but with some exceptions, they prefer not to, and don’t draw the dots even when the outline of the picture is obvious.
… a complex and precarious democracy of 67 million people is being asked to shut its eyes to the act of gratuitous self-harm it has inflicted on itself, in order to protect a dishonest government and a clueless political class from ignominy… there are no sunlit uplands waiting for us, only an endless series of crises made so much worse by the problems that we refuse to speak about.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/bulgarians-hungarians-slovaks-still-do-not-blame-putin-for-ukraine-war/
On the whole, Ukraine will be pleased at the unanimous majority view, but the figures help explain some of the nuances in attitudes. Each country has different historical backgrounds, of course. Hungary has its own autocratic PM (Orban); Bulgaria is traditionally pro-Russian ("They saved us from the Turks"), the Baltic States have Russian-speaking minorities, some of whom feel discriminated against. By contrast, Poland has always been very Russosceptic and Czechia is the much more Western-oriented part of former Czechoslovakia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8Yf5B6GbYk
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Swedish_general_election
is up to date. You mentioned a while back that the Moderates no longer see a deal with the Sweden Democrats as anathema. Does thast apply to the Christian Democrats too? If so, a centre-right coalition looks plausible.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/02/complete-nonsense-asda-boss-mocks-post-brexit-plan-to-return-to-imperial-measures
'The Tory peer and Asda boss Lord Rose said returning to imperial weights and measures was “complete and utter nonsense” and would “add cost” for businesses.
He told Times Radio: “I’ve never heard such nonsense in my life. I mean, we have got serious problems in the world and we’re now saying ‘let’s go backwards’.
“Does anybody in this country below the age of about 40 know how many ounces there are in a pound?”
BEIS insisted the move would not inflict further costs on businesses as there was no intention to require them to make a change.'
But the Graun journalist notes something I hadn't quite realised - this proposal is completely futile anyway even on the Tories' (admittedly implicit) premisses about nasty EU banning Imperial stuff:
'it is still legal to price goods in pounds and ounces if displayed alongside prices in grams and kilograms.'
If you've seen my posts you'll know I'm one of the least nationalistic people on here: often deeply critical of this country especially our colonial past.
But I sense I'm now getting a bit too serious for you.
Have a nice day. Guests arriving and I have some cooking to do.
The government says since 2006 pint glasses have had to display the EU 'CE' symbol to show its a full pint, but say that this new guidance will help businesses use a Crown symbol as a "decorative" measure and they'll still have to use the legal conformity markings.
https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1532620316803055616
Here's what 'the government tells us' on the stamping of pint glasses versus historical reality. The original decision to allow the use of pint glasses without a crown stamp was taken not because of the EU, but as a common sense measure before...the 1966 World Cup. https://twitter.com/DPMcBride/status/1532623302786748416/photo/1
I think there’s only one airworthy Würger so that would have been a very rare bird indeed.
German engines sounded quite different, apparently. I remember my late mother telling me of the noise of the bombers proceeding overhead to paste Clydebank, though what she remembered most was the slow beat of the deliberately unsynchronised motors - not relevant to a single-eingine job obviously.
I do have to ask a basic morality question though. When they are lying and know you are lying but do so because you think you will gain political benefits from ignorant people you are helping keep ignorant, do they ever wonder what happened to those grand ideals about public service?
Yes, might be an outlier poll, but I think our new PM Magdalena Andersson is doing bloody well, in difficult circumstances. I have never voted for her party, and probably won’t in September, but I like the cut of her gibb. IMHO it is not an “outlier” but a genuine step up in Social Democrat support.
The leader of my former party The Moderates - Ulf Kristersson - is unimpressive, and has had one of his biggest election issues, NATO membership, dragged out from under his feet. I might vote M anyway, but extremely reluctantly.
The Sweden Democrats, Moderates and Christian Democrats act as a well-coordinated team these days. The Alliance is long dead. Absolutely guaranteed that they will build a coalition if they can. And *that* is what puts me off voting M! (There are other factors too).
So this is a confected argument for seniles and idiots to propose something that no business will do.
Aviation chaos: We need to talk about Brexit | The Independent https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/airport-airline-chaos-flight-brexit-b2091300.html
“Brexit was a mistake which is causing harm but we shouldn’t do anything to reverse it” is a bizarre way of thinking. It’s like mishandling a knife and then resolving to let yourself bleed to death.
https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1532630897173962752
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1532633797484761091
Perhaps we should try and tempt the EU with friends with benefits instead of a second marriage or bitter enemies bitching about each other?
I am amazed they haven't managed to find 54 letters, even for the Tories.
Lab 40% (nc)
Con 32% (-1)
Lib Dem 12% (+1)
Green 6% (nc)
SNP 4% (nc)
1,632 questioned Tue & Wed. Changes with 25-26 May.
Details & data - https://t.co/KHeGBCcKNZ https://t.co/McOgOmKf0u
Pure guess, he does a count with his vice chair to verify number, and the letters are kept in a sealed box in case of disputes later
They had some on my girlfriend's ward (psychiatry) but they had to take it down as a ligature risk... rather a dark image.
And sorry about yesterday too - I am very proud of our country, its traditions and heritage, and I get easily upset by those who don't feel the same way.
My apologies.
And it is a tiny piece in their jigsaw, that they are not going to even ever implement. Pretty much guaranteed we will get similar intentions from the govt in 2023 and 2024 when they need a favourable story to the Mail and Express.
Maybe a writhing hippo? An angry cobra? (Was wondering if Johnson might deploy troops to west Ukraine or something).
Paris, on the eve 9f the war.
My mum, who is a classic soppy royal family fan, took us down to wave wee saltires and lion rampant flags at her maj outside Holyroodhouse once. I cannot remember the queen or her carriage, but I think those wee flags might have been the start of my journey to supporting sovereignty. The other thing I remember is that there weren’t many people there.
You could, I suppose, argue that passports and pint crowns are noble lies. If Brexit is good in itself, a lie or two to get the public to do the right thing might be considered worthwhile.
Dom C's remarks about that bus come close to acknowledging that- though I think he saw that as an incomplete truth, rather than a lie. Some of BoJo's philosophical musings skirt the same idea.
But a flat out lie? Is any Brexit Backer ready to totally fess up? "Yes, X was a lie, but it was necessary to get this great thing to happen."
(No, "the other side lies as well" is not sufficient excuse. Partly because "they did it too" never is sufficient, but also because Rejoin is, if not dead, hibernating right now.)
We had decades of friction over our membership for very good reasons and I think both sides recognise it was the wrong model for both the EU and the UK.