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The Johnson survival market is getting predictable – politicalbetting.com
The Johnson survival market is getting predictable – politicalbetting.com
The first article I ever wrote for this site was about recency bias: The habit of people to focus on the last bit of information they got on a topic and overstate its importance. As with many biases, it crops up again and again and the Johnson survival market right now is a classic example.
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Absolute grim as hell, and I was one of the lucky ones.
I collected my tickets from the sponsors/UEFA point area at the ground.
At 5.30pm I was one of the early ones, and got told my ticket was fake, despite UEFA being the ones issuing.
I mean they didn't even scan it, just decided it was fake.
Fortunately I expressed my displeasure in French and also pointed out scanning it might help or did they want me to get some UEFA delegates over?
So don't believe the UEFA bullshit that it was down to ticketless fans.
Even the Mail and Telegraph journos ended up getting tear gassed said it was horrific.
Sticking half a dozen police vans in the way also helped cause a bit of a bottleneck.
An absolute blast, just fantastic.
(I'm counting comments, not people.)
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/05/monaco-post-race-analysis-2022.html
Liverpool = Tories
Man City = Labour
Liverpool = Tories
I am proved right. PartyGate is beginning to get real traction on the news now,
“Angela Rayner, Labour’s deputy leader, said the text messages had been suppressed and that the public “deserve the truth about why the holding of a lockdown party in the prime minister’s flat on his own birthday has not been made public until now”.
She added the revelation “raises new questions about potential misconduct in public office, which must now be subject to proper and genuinely independent scrutiny” and that “this looks like yet another cover-up”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/29/partygate-sue-gray-knew-carrie-johnson-texts-birthday-party-whitehall
On topic, it remains to be seen Boris loses both by elections, I’m confident my con hold in Tivi is still a winner.
But if he loses both the impact varies on backdrop - backdrop of negative Boris Partygate in news and still losing MPs the gust may be the same, the teetering on edge may be different.
My opinion is Boris is in more trouble now than January going into February on the basis there was a chance back then this story could blow over and away, no longer hollowing Tory’s out - it’s obvious now it’s not going away, Boris chances of recovery small now than the don’t know back in January. Also, Big G talks about fatigue, how about the other way fatigue works such as MPs tired of defending the indefensible the only way out is to act, Or Boris 80 seat majority built on voter Brexit fatigue makes “get Brexit done” into “get Boris done” as only way to make it go away! 🙂
Also, whilst a war came along, and Boris had wait and see report to conclude to bat awkward question away, what’s coming now to save him from scrutiny in this period? Also it may not seem like the numbers are there to win vonc as it inches to 54 letters, but once it’s come off fence and make your mind up time it’s a whole different ball game of danger for Boris and his team.
So yes, vonked in June has to be a tempting bet.
Andrew Pierce discusses the Prime Minister's popularity.
Are some people here on the same stuff as this guy?
https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1530943752029757443
I confess my first reaction was not especially warm to the hymn-booers, but the more I see the more I think: Hmm.
Eg there are now multiple videos of locals in Paris trying to storm their way in. With police looking totally pathetic and ineffectual. Easier to be mean to Liverpool fans, I suspect, than kick off a riot in St Denis. ditto the robbing of fans by the same locals
What a mess
Still, I’m glad Real won. Stop booing the Queen, the anthem, and - most of all - stop booing profound and beautiful hymns, and Britain might like you again
See Corbyn for info
I did have a tiny bet on Sainz, hedged, to win, which ended up green.
What a stunning turn around job by Steve Cooper.
Now that Boris has called for his dog to be put down, his days really are numbered
https://twitter.com/JohnJCrace/status/1530917553182281728
LOL @ unintended consequences if Galadriel's been unable to take the revolting little thing to France, because Brexit.
'He has an active and controversial presence on Twitter. On 29th May 2022 he tweeted the following: '18 years after EU ordered govt to remove crown symbol from our pint glasses they're back for #PlatinumJubilee Cheers #Boris".' This is untrue, as documented by the BBC, who reported a spokesperson for the EU clarifying that "EU law does not prevent markings from being placed on products, so long as it does not overlap or be confused with the CE mark."[14]'
There’s one right near my Tbilisi hotel. It can yap for hours at a stretch, I’ve come close to marching down and hurling it in the Mrtsksvkrktka river
This is a fundamentally wrong and dangerous road to travel down.
I know they did the same trick with the first film, which they confirmed was Libya in Maverick.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_League
Dan Coleman
trdSytc4a:PMac l420 Ma ta12 52 ·
Righto this baby shit coloured pile of arse holes is ready for its loving new owner.
I’ve removed the stickers that made the previous owners look like dog interferers so it’s worth at least 5 grand more.
Anywho to save your time and mine, I figured I’d just do an faq
Is this item still available ? :🖕
I am interested in this item : 🖕
Would you recommend anything needs replacing on it ? : Everything, routinely, every 50 miles otherwise it will fall apart and set itself on fire
What’s your lowest ? : Athough a personal and unrelated question It gets asked a lot so… probably w@nking off a homeless man in the disabled toilets of a subway in st Helen’s in exchange for some spice
Does it come with warranty ? : It’s a notoriously unreliable bag of shit from the 70s of course it doesn’t. In fact if you buy it and it gets you further than 50 miles then I’ll give you £100 back
Is there any rust ? : Refer to vehicle make and model
Has it had any recent work ? : Yes, I put a new fuel pump push rod in it because I chopped the original one in half so I could get free recovery home rather than drive it
Is it water tight ? : Probably not
This is our first Volkswagen, is there anything you would recommend ? : Buy a transit custom for less money
How many does it sleep ? : 4 uncomfortably
What are the gears like ? : Shaking a black mamba in the depths of a single mother of 7 from Salford
Does it leak oil ? : Refer to vehicle make and model
Is it good on fuel ? : Yes, well it runs better on fuel than on water
I saw this up for less money last week ? : Your mum was up for less money last week
Good points : Its mot exempt and has a fire extinguisher on board
That about covers the most of it. So if it sounds like the van of your dreams then give me a call and start the first day of the rest of your life
£15k
Hope the same does not happen in
DerbyshireSheffield.I've just found this on Youtube: a half-hour interview with Wilson before the first 1974 election. Can you imagine Boris doing this? Will there be a windfall tax? One odd thing to our ears is the talk of housewives in regard to food prices. Also a discussion of wage increases in time of inflation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaasnLeYdIE
They'd pay up.
I lost the ability to deploy that threat for nearly two years.
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2 perhaps covers it already, arguably.
I think the BBC need to explain their reverse-ferret, and why they did not pick it up before. Poor judgement imo.
I'd be interested to see something similar before. At the moment the Twatterati are arguing things like "But Laura Kuenssberg was a Tory at University" to underpin their alleged outrage.
What is your appraisal of what happened yesterday outside the stadium? Would be interested to hear an eyewitness.
Because if we had she would probably be dead by now.
I'll tell you what, it softens the whole divorce thing when the wife gets exclusive custody of the dogs.
don't want to put words into his mouth, but I'm guessing he is drafting a reply on the lines of: I now realise that for a successful middle class professional like myself, purporting to be a football "fan" is merely a form of first world poverty tourism. I have learned my lesson and in future will follow the rugger and cricket.
But... I loved it. The plot was a bit Team America: "America, F*ck Yeah!" and Cruise's acting was as poor as ever. However the filmography was excellent, and even though the aerial scenes were probably unrealistic (IANAE...), they were action-packed. I loved the way they got Val Kilmer into the film despite his health problems, and the personal plots also melded well with the original.
Overall, it played a great homage to the original. As a standalone film it'd be a mess, but as a sequel it was excellent and, most importantly and unlike many sequels, it did not spoil the original.
I hate cruelty to animals in general. Factory farming upsets me, etc
But individual animals? Fuck em. If they annoy me, chuck them off a cliff. This includes family pets
Be good to face some competition from a club that could win in Europe as many times as Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs and City combined.
Happy to report that it is perfect.
Busy, yes, but justifiably so, and not unpleasantly so. I have never been anywhere so sparkly. The place shines. Now, the day was a good day for weather, but even so, even for Cornwall, this is beautiful. One of the highlights of Europe; and I'm mildly shocked that I've lived in the same country as it for 47 years without going there.
We parked in Carbis Bay at our friends' house and walked three miles along the SW coastal path to get there, which is an even better approach than the train - it just gets better and better as you approach it.
Day further improved by behaviour of my youngest, who had one of her sunniest ever days. May be the gentle attentions of friend's slightly older daughter. May be the ADHD meds kicking in. Will happily take it either way.
Returned to Falmouth where it was overcast, then rainy - but happy to report that Falmouth in the rain is still a very pleasant place to be. Tea overlooking the superyachts and the Roseland peninsula behind.
I still believe this is one of the best places within ten hours' travel of Manchester.
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Harry Cole
@MrHarryCole
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5h
Astonishing with all that's going on, that the Labour Party is is having public war of words over whether a woman can be born with a penis.