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From the LD Tiverton & Honiton by-election campaign – politicalbetting.com

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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,894

    YouGov / The Times
    Sample Size: 1,115
    Fieldwork: 18-23 May 2022
    (+/- change from 18-22 November 2021)

    Westminster voting intention

    SNP 46% (-2)
    Lab 22% (+4)
    Con 19% (-1)
    LD 6% (nc)
    Grn 3% (nc)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    oth 2% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - FPTP constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    Lab 23% (+4)
    Con 18% (-3)
    LD 7% (nc)
    Grn 2% (nc)
    oth 3% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - List vote

    SNP 39% (+1)
    Lab 21% (+2)
    Con 18% (-1)
    Grn 10% (-1)
    LD 8% (+1)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    All for Unity 0 (-1)
    UKIP 0 (-1)
    oth 1% (nc)


    Vaguely interesting but only as a baseline before two days that we would expect to move the needle — the Gray report yesterday and the cost of living help today (don't say "windfall tax").
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Gardenwalker

    “St Helens
    Abergavenny
    Matlock Spa
    Blackgang Chine
    Middlesbrough
    Portscatho
    Ashton-upon-Lyne
    Appledore
    Borth
    Isle of Ely
    Vatersay
    Pittenweem
    Grey Street
    Gosport
    Uttoxeter
    Coventry
    Chipping Camden
    Port Sunlight
    Old Radnor
    Preston Bus Station”

    Your list is just as good as mine, and I haven’t been to at least half of yours

    This is an oddly inspiring task. A reminder that the UK, despite being relatively small, contains a truly intense variation in landscape, cityscape, culture, history. Amazing. We are citizens of an amazing country

    Vatersay. Home of the Vatersay Boys - the Scottish Pogues.

    And yes, I have been.

    My adds to the list:

    South Gare, near Redcar
    Buxton
    The Forest of Dean
    Durham
    Fort George
    Park Hill housing estate, Sheffield


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    edited May 2022

    rcs1000 said:

    Farooq said:

    I think we do the UK in ten:

    Sunderland
    Ullapool
    Caithness
    Kilkeel
    Manchester
    Yeovil
    Derby
    Ipswich
    Camborne
    Kendal

    Right...

    The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.


    Sunderland - England
    Ullapool - Scotland
    Caithness - Scotland
    Kilkeel - Norther Ireland
    Manchester - England
    Yeovil - England
    Derby - England
    Ipswich - England
    Camborne - England
    Kendal - England

    It contains only one major conurbation, despite the fact that tens of millions of the UK's denizens live in major cities - such as London, Birmingham, Edinburgh, etc. And contains nowhere from Wales.
    I wonder if you can get a wide range of lifestyles in one county?

    Sinfin Moor, Derby. (high immigration area, poverty)
    Chatsworth (Posh, tourism)
    Castleton (tourism, with the Boris Johnson memorial cave above - the Devil's Arse)
    Brimington (working-class deprivation, ex-mining area)
    Rolls Royce, Sinfin (high-tech industry)
    Sutton-on-the-Hill (lowland arable and livestock farming). My uncle and aunt will make them a nice cup of tea.
    Earl Sterndale (upland farming)
    Hayfield (northern ex-mill town)
    Burton (industrial area, lots of beer for parties)
    Buxton (tourism; dormitory town)
    Derby University (higher education system)
    Swarkestone Bridge (history, and to remind our Scottish friends how far they got ;) ).
    Litchurch Lane Works (heavy industry. Because, you know, railways...

    I reckon I've captured a large proportion of lifestyles and occupations in that list. There are some things not covered, such as deep-sea fishing...
    Cromford - home of the industrial revolution might be worth a mention.
    And the Blue John mines (although the boat trip on the Speedwell caverns is perhaps more fun)
    And Mam Tor, for a walk.
    And Lathkill Dale.
    Then Bakewell, for a pudding.
    And Crich, for the tramway museum - and on inshore lighthouse, to the memory of the Sherwood Foresters
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,580

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Gardenwalker

    “St Helens
    Abergavenny
    Matlock Spa
    Blackgang Chine
    Middlesbrough
    Portscatho
    Ashton-upon-Lyne
    Appledore
    Borth
    Isle of Ely
    Vatersay
    Pittenweem
    Grey Street
    Gosport
    Uttoxeter
    Coventry
    Chipping Camden
    Port Sunlight
    Old Radnor
    Preston Bus Station”

    Your list is just as good as mine, and I haven’t been to at least half of yours

    This is an oddly inspiring task. A reminder that the UK, despite being relatively small, contains a truly intense variation in landscape, cityscape, culture, history. Amazing. We are citizens of an amazing country

    Vatersay. Home of the Vatersay Boys - the Scottish Pogues.

    And yes, I have been.

    My adds to the list:

    South Gare, near Redcar
    Buxton
    The Forest of Dean
    Durham
    Fort George
    Park Hill housing estate, Sheffield


    I think any *national* list must include a constituency in the Scottish islands - perhaps Hebrides or the Western Isles. I fear some of the inner-city MPs would get nosebleeds from encountering the different lifestyle.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    One for @Dura_Ace - Bertrand Russell on his chat with Lenin (“rather limited”):
    https://3quarksdaily.com/3quarksdaily/2022/05/bertrand-russell-on-his-meeting-with-vladimir-lenin-in-1920.html

    The bit at the end where he imitates Lenin chuckling at the idea of hanging the peasants is nice.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,894
    edited May 2022
    Re places for new MPs to visit. I am reminded by Kuper's book Chums that there was a long period in the 20th Century up to Ted Heath and maybe Jim Callaghan when posh Prime Ministers will have served on the front line in the First and Second World Wars, leading working class soldiers.

    (Is it odd that Mrs Thatcher was not called up but went straight from school to Oxford in 1943? Come to think of it, was there conscription for women or were there enough volunteers for the land army, army, WRENs and WAAFs? The Queen did her bit and they are the same age.)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,894
    Nigelb said:

    One for @Dura_Ace - Bertrand Russell on his chat with Lenin (“rather limited”):
    https://3quarksdaily.com/3quarksdaily/2022/05/bertrand-russell-on-his-meeting-with-vladimir-lenin-in-1920.html

    The bit at the end where he imitates Lenin chuckling at the idea of hanging the peasants is nice.

    Russell sounds like Dad's Army's L/Corporal Jones, the way he tells that story.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,580

    Re places for new MPs to visit. I am reminded by Kuper's book Chums that there was a long period in the 20th Century up to Ted Heath and maybe Jim Callaghan when posh Prime Ministers will have served on the front line in the First and Second World Wars, leading working class soldiers.

    (Is it odd that Mrs Thatcher was not called up but went straight from school to Oxford in 1943? Come to think of it, was there conscription for women or were there enough volunteers for the land army, army, WRENs and WAAFs? The Queen did her bit and they are the same age.)

    Lots of people went to uni during the war. They did not close down, although from memory numbers were reduced. So not particularly odd.

    As an aside, I'd forgotten this little story:

    " In 1938, before the Second World War, the Roberts family briefly gave sanctuary to a teenage Jewish girl who had escaped Nazi Germany. With her pen-friending elder sister Muriel, Margaret saved pocket money to help pay for the teenager's journey."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    HYUFD said:

    Ben Bradshaw wins sanctimonious tweet of the day award

    'Apologies to my constituents who may have wished me to be in the chamber today. But I couldn’t be in the same physical space as that man & the craven Tory MPs keeping him there. I have full confidence in the decency of the British people to correct that at the next election.'

    https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1529565272075542530?s=20&t=jCCG3RogeTYK8wfgoTem7g

    Too many Tweets make a tw@…
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    HYUFD said:

    Ben Bradshaw wins sanctimonious tweet of the day award

    'Apologies to my constituents who may have wished me to be in the chamber today. But I couldn’t be in the same physical space as that man & the craven Tory MPs keeping him there. I have full confidence in the decency of the British people to correct that at the next election.'

    https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1529565272075542530?s=20&t=jCCG3RogeTYK8wfgoTem7g

    Give him a break. He has been a brilliant constituency MP and I've a Conservative friend who votes for him. He's standing down at the next election and I don't blame him for not wanting to sit through more Johnson.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited May 2022

    YouGov / The Times
    Sample Size: 1,115
    Fieldwork: 18-23 May 2022
    (+/- change from 18-22 November 2021)

    Westminster voting intention

    SNP 46% (-2)
    Lab 22% (+4)
    Con 19% (-1)
    LD 6% (nc)
    Grn 3% (nc)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    oth 2% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - FPTP constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    Lab 23% (+4)
    Con 18% (-3)
    LD 7% (nc)
    Grn 2% (nc)
    oth 3% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - List vote

    SNP 39% (+1)
    Lab 21% (+2)
    Con 18% (-1)
    Grn 10% (-1)
    LD 8% (+1)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    All for Unity 0 (-1)
    UKIP 0 (-1)
    oth 1% (nc)


    Vaguely interesting but only as a baseline before two days that we would expect to move the needle — the Gray report yesterday and the cost of living help today (don't say "windfall tax").
    Apt that you say “move the needle”, because, apart from a tiny uptick in SLab VI, the Scottish electoral needle is MoE unchanged since November. Quite remarkable when you consider what has happened in those six months.

    At one point that will change, but the next two days? Nah.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    On topic, the LibDem poster is hard-hitting and effective.

    The Conservatives are consigning themselves to a landslide defeat in two years.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249

    On the subject of trans women in sport:-

    $150,000 broodmare might actually be male according to extraordinary lawsuit

    A New York-bred stakes winner who sold for $150,000 at Keeneland as a broodmare prospect is actually a male, according to a lawsuit pending in Lexington, Kentucky.

    Kept True went through the Keeneland January 2021 Horses of All Ages Sale, where she was purchased as a five-year-old broodmare prospect by Michelle and Albert Crawford's Crawford Farms near Lexington.

    Over the course of the previous 27 months, Kept True compiled a record of five wins, two seconds, and two thirds from 14 starts and earnings of $323,659 running against females at Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga.

    Crawford Farms took possession of Kept True without having the horse examined by its own vet, only to apparently find later, via a series of examinations and tests, that Kept True is a mare in outward appearance only.

    According to the complaint filed by Crawford's attorney, Kept True was examined by Crawford's Dr Jeremy Whitman, who reported "obvious abnormalities in the horse's reproductive organs", primarily that the horse had no ovaries.

    A test report from Texas A&M University revealed a genetic condition that gives Kept True the "appearance of a female horse, but the chromosomes of a male horse".

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/international/stakes-winner-sold-as-150000-broodmare-is-actually-male-lawsuit-alleges/558311

    Not good for Hagyard - they are one of the top 2 or 3 equine hospitals in the US and signed off
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,357
    Heathener said:

    On topic, the LibDem poster is hard-hitting and effective.

    The Conservatives are consigning themselves to a landslide defeat in two years.

    Why do we not see that in the opinion polls?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    On topic, the LibDem poster is hard-hitting and effective.

    The Conservatives are consigning themselves to a landslide defeat in two years.

    Why do we not see that in the opinion polls?
    I think we will ...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited May 2022

    Nigelb said:

    One for @Dura_Ace - Bertrand Russell on his chat with Lenin (“rather limited”):
    https://3quarksdaily.com/3quarksdaily/2022/05/bertrand-russell-on-his-meeting-with-vladimir-lenin-in-1920.html

    The bit at the end where he imitates Lenin chuckling at the idea of hanging the peasants is nice.

    Russell sounds like Dad's Army's L/Corporal Jones, the way he tells that story.
    More like professor Yaffle on Bagpuss - who was indeed based on him.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Heathener said:

    On topic, the LibDem poster is hard-hitting and effective.

    The Conservatives are consigning themselves to a landslide defeat in two years.

    Why do we not see that in the opinion polls?
    Arguably, we are: the combined Labour + LibDem + Green number in all polls is now almost always at 55%+ and is sometimes now getting close to 60%. The Tories, meanwhile, have on occasions been as low as 31%, their 1997 election result.

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,241

    Anyone under the age of 50 doesn't get support with cost of living, pensioners and the elderly get a bung. Students and young people working have to support these parasites.

    ?? According to the stories, everyone is going to get money off their bill in October.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,241
    Someone on the news talking about "turning the thermostat down".

    Er no. It's May. Turn the heating off. It goes back on in October, or November if you can get away with it.

    Turning the thermostat down is what I did last winter.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Sounds like the usual police incompetence at the Texas shooting.
    Thread.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/paleofuture/status/1529652093354536961
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr StillWaters,

    "A New York-bred stakes winner who sold for $150,000 at Keeneland as a broodmare prospect is actually a male, according to a lawsuit pending in Lexington, Kentucky."

    No problem. Assuming it's a complete defect in the androgen receptor (equivalent to CAIS in humans), it will have no 'testosterone benefit' so all's well. Anyway, don't be so transphobic. It's the 'lived' experience that counts, and gender not sex is what matters nowadays.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,357

    Heathener said:

    On topic, the LibDem poster is hard-hitting and effective.

    The Conservatives are consigning themselves to a landslide defeat in two years.

    Why do we not see that in the opinion polls?
    Arguably, we are: the combined Labour + LibDem + Green number in all polls is now almost always at 55%+ and is sometimes now getting close to 60%. The Tories, meanwhile, have on occasions been as low as 31%, their 1997 election result.

    The Tories polled lower than now during the 2010-2015 Parliament. Suffice it to say that they did not suffer a landslide defeat in GE2015.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Leon said:

    Damn! Got caught out by the end of the last thread!

    Paddington Lizzie Line:


    Tottenham Court Road:


    Farringdon:


    Liverpool Street:


    Whitechapel:


    Canary Wharf:


    Custom House:


    Woolwich:


    Abbey Wood:







    Thanks @Sunil_Prasannan

    The exteriors look amazing. Go, London

    The timing is perfect
    Top one gave me distinct vibes of westworld...

    https://google.co.uk/search?q=westworld+arrival+station&client=safari&hl=en-gb&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjn6_6hxfz3AhW1olwKHSIsAccQ_AUoAnoECAEQBA&biw=1121&bih=728&dpr=2#imgrc=9MMAq2rb9u5pXM
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    Daily Hate is still on board:

    image

    So why was Boris (and Rishi) fined for that when Downing Street seemed to be having regular piss-ups ?
    Whitewash, wonder what was offered at the meeting, nice plum sinecure.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    BREAKING: The U.S., Britain and EU announce the formation of the Atrocity Crimes Advisory Group to help war crimes investigations in Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1529588083922030594

    That will help, some cushy well paid jobs for the chums
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,894

    Fishing said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:


    John Cleese
    @JohnCleese
    ·
    5h
    Alastair,

    I think that the longer Boris lingers, the more damage he will do to the current Tory party

    So...let's keep him there as long as we can

    https://twitter.com/JohnCleese/status/1529518066148683777

    I just can't stand this attitude. It's literally no better than the Custard Conservatives who are failing to remove Boris. Country before party, people! Keeping Boris looks a lot to me like electoral seppuku for the Tories, but it's bad for the country too.

    Those who want the country to suffer for relative party advantage are not the good guys whichever side they're on.
    Correct. And as people keep saying he is awfully good at winning elections. The bollocks about All the better if he is still in place in 2024, is bollocks. Because the thought of him with another 5 year mandate is Hitler level frightening.
    Boris Derangement Syndrome rears its ugly head.

    Our Prime Minister, whose vaccine programme saved thousands of lives, is as frightening as a man who caused 30 million deaths, because he had a couple of drinks jn his own house and then shaved the truth about it. Apparently.
    For those of us with Johnson Derangement Syndrome, some of whom crossed that line yesterday, there is a disbelief at the unquestioning support of this odious creature, and the acceptance that his cock and bull defence must be true, and we have to move on.

    The idea that Johnson overcame the Ministerial Code with another lie, upon lie, upon lie, with the story growing more absurd with each denial is really rather frightening. It's Trumpesque, it's plain wrong! Justice has not been served.

    Your assertion, that we should allow Johnson's misbehaviour and outrageous defence of it because he oversaw a (credit where it is due) successful and slightly quicker than elsewhere vaccine rollout is an odd one. It's like suggesting Harold Shipman's pleasant bedside manner made him an excellent GP, or we should mitigate Fred West's crimes because he was a first class plasterer.

    Yesterday was a bad day for democracy.
    iirc it really was remarked of Harold Shipman that, apart from murdering his patients, everyone agreed he was a bloody good doctor.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,357
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    On topic, the LibDem poster is hard-hitting and effective.

    The Conservatives are consigning themselves to a landslide defeat in two years.

    Why do we not see that in the opinion polls?
    I think we will ...
    What is going to change that will see a change in the opinion polls?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,357
    "No Way To Prevent This," Says Only Nation Where This Regularly Happens.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    Unless I missed it, nowhere in Cumbria was deemed worthy of inclusion in the list of places MPs had to visit.

    Tsk .......



  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Fishing said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:


    John Cleese
    @JohnCleese
    ·
    5h
    Alastair,

    I think that the longer Boris lingers, the more damage he will do to the current Tory party

    So...let's keep him there as long as we can

    https://twitter.com/JohnCleese/status/1529518066148683777

    I just can't stand this attitude. It's literally no better than the Custard Conservatives who are failing to remove Boris. Country before party, people! Keeping Boris looks a lot to me like electoral seppuku for the Tories, but it's bad for the country too.

    Those who want the country to suffer for relative party advantage are not the good guys whichever side they're on.
    Correct. And as people keep saying he is awfully good at winning elections. The bollocks about All the better if he is still in place in 2024, is bollocks. Because the thought of him with another 5 year mandate is Hitler level frightening.
    Boris Derangement Syndrome rears its ugly head.

    Our Prime Minister, whose vaccine programme saved thousands of lives, is as frightening as a man who caused 30 million deaths, because he had a couple of drinks jn his own house and then shaved the truth about it. Apparently.
    For those of us with Johnson Derangement Syndrome, some of whom crossed that line yesterday, there is a disbelief at the unquestioning support of this odious creature, and the acceptance that his cock and bull defence must be true, and we have to move on.

    The idea that Johnson overcame the Ministerial Code with another lie, upon lie, upon lie, with the story growing more absurd with each denial is really rather frightening. It's Trumpesque, it's plain wrong! Justice has not been served.

    Your assertion, that we should allow Johnson's misbehaviour and outrageous defence of it because he oversaw a (credit where it is due) successful and slightly quicker than elsewhere vaccine rollout is an odd one. It's like suggesting Harold Shipman's pleasant bedside manner made him an excellent GP, or we should mitigate Fred West's crimes because he was a first class plasterer.

    Yesterday was a bad day for democracy.
    The shot of his grinning mug as, passing by with a gaggle of sycophants, he called out rubbish over the Newsnight presenter's piece in the Commons corridor last night, was particularly odious.

    Humble indeed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited May 2022

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    On topic, the LibDem poster is hard-hitting and effective.

    The Conservatives are consigning themselves to a landslide defeat in two years.

    Why do we not see that in the opinion polls?
    I think we will ...
    What is going to change that will see a change in the opinion polls?
    1. That parties of the left be able to define “Woman”, in a way that 3/4 of the population doesn’t think is barmy?

    As we have seen in the US, so much political polarisation is now down to social, rather than economic, issues.

    2. The same parties not to give the impression that they will try and tie the UK to the EU, were they to come to power.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:


    John Cleese
    @JohnCleese
    ·
    5h
    Alastair,

    I think that the longer Boris lingers, the more damage he will do to the current Tory party

    So...let's keep him there as long as we can

    https://twitter.com/JohnCleese/status/1529518066148683777

    I just can't stand this attitude. It's literally no better than the Custard Conservatives who are failing to remove Boris. Country before party, people! Keeping Boris looks a lot to me like electoral seppuku for the Tories, but it's bad for the country too.

    Those who want the country to suffer for relative party advantage are not the good guys whichever side they're on.
    Correct. And as people keep saying he is awfully good at winning elections. The bollocks about All the better if he is still in place in 2024, is bollocks. Because the thought of him with another 5 year mandate is Hitler level frightening.
    Boris Derangement Syndrome rears its ugly head.

    Our Prime Minister, whose vaccine programme saved thousands of lives, is as frightening as a man who caused 30 million deaths, because he had a couple of drinks jn his own house and then shaved the truth about it. Apparently.
    For those of us with Johnson Derangement Syndrome, some of whom crossed that line yesterday, there is a disbelief at the unquestioning support of this odious creature, and the acceptance that his cock and bull defence must be true, and we have to move on.

    The idea that Johnson overcame the Ministerial Code with another lie, upon lie, upon lie, with the story growing more absurd with each denial is really rather frightening. It's Trumpesque, it's plain wrong! Justice has not been served.

    Your assertion, that we should allow Johnson's misbehaviour and outrageous defence of it because he oversaw a (credit where it is due) successful and slightly quicker than elsewhere vaccine rollout is an odd one. It's like suggesting Harold Shipman's pleasant bedside manner made him an excellent GP, or we should mitigate Fred West's crimes because he was a first class plasterer.

    Yesterday was a bad day for democracy.
    The shot of his grinning mug as, passing by with a gaggle of sycophants, he called out rubbish over the Newsnight presenter's piece in the Commons corridor last night, was particularly odious.

    Humble indeed.
    Did he really? Eeeuw.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Cyclefree said:

    Unless I missed it, nowhere in Cumbria was deemed worthy of inclusion in the list of places MPs had to visit.

    Tsk .......

    Looking at the lot in show in recent days, I'd be grateful.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    More brilliant benefits of Brexit:

    Portugal has implemented e gates for British Tourist (excellent news, Portugal encouraging tourist) yet you are recommended to then queue up for a passport stamp to ensure you don't get caught out by the 90 day rule. Great.

    Pet passports have gone now we have left, but getting a health certificate to travel is a nightmare. Many Vets aren't trained and the requirements onerous. You have to get one within 10 days of travel yet we can't book one for 6 weeks so no popping over to France for a last minute trip. Cost £150 per animal for every trip so cost is ridiculous if you make multiple trips. @IanB2 you take your dog abroad I think. Advice would be appreciated.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Heathener said:

    On topic, the LibDem poster is hard-hitting and effective.

    The Conservatives are consigning themselves to a landslide defeat in two years.

    Why do we not see that in the opinion polls?
    Arguably, we are: the combined Labour + LibDem + Green number in all polls is now almost always at 55%+ and is sometimes now getting close to 60%. The Tories, meanwhile, have on occasions been as low as 31%, their 1997 election result.

    The Tories polled lower than now during the 2010-2015 Parliament. Suffice it to say that they did not suffer a landslide defeat in GE2015.
    The combined opposition was not polling as high, neither was the LOTO regularly leading on best PM, neither was there any doubt which party led on the economy.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    "No Way To Prevent This," Says Only Nation Where This Regularly Happens.

    This photo will get a lot of play in the coming campaign.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/BeschlossDC/status/1529673177802096641
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958
    I see that the Texas shooter wore dresses is the latest ‘reason’ from the gun nuts.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    I assumed BoJo would ride this out when it first cropped up but now I'm amazed he has the brass neck to hang on. As someone, who in his seventies voted Tory for the first time at the last GE to get Brexit done, I never claimed to be a true-blue. But as Monty Python often said, "Stop this, it's getting silly now."

    I don't mind them getting rat-arsed on my taxes, although having such a lax regime is irritating. I quite approve of him not doing much, but he has committed two major sins recently. He is too idle even to finish a sentence, and he put canine welfare ahead of human welfare during the Afghan rout.

    Even though Starmer has the pzazz of a wet week in Barrow, I might end up voting for his party again. Unless Corbyn rides to the rescue, my Tory GE vote will never be repeated.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835

    Re places for new MPs to visit. I am reminded by Kuper's book Chums that there was a long period in the 20th Century up to Ted Heath and maybe Jim Callaghan when posh Prime Ministers will have served on the front line in the First and Second World Wars, leading working class soldiers.

    (Is it odd that Mrs Thatcher was not called up but went straight from school to Oxford in 1943? Come to think of it, was there conscription for women or were there enough volunteers for the land army, army, WRENs and WAAFs? The Queen did her bit and they are the same age.)

    Lots of people went to uni during the war. They did not close down, although from memory numbers were reduced. So not particularly odd.

    As an aside, I'd forgotten this little story:

    " In 1938, before the Second World War, the Roberts family briefly gave sanctuary to a teenage Jewish girl who had escaped Nazi Germany. With her pen-friending elder sister Muriel, Margaret saved pocket money to help pay for the teenager's journey."
    From memory, some of the space at unis was handed over to services training, government depts etc, but the authorities tried to maintain admittedly telescoped courses in subjects of priority to the war effort - medicine for instance (in which case they would not be conscripted into the armed services and the women's auxiliaries). There were also short courses basically to give officer cadets to be something to do and something to learn. As a chemist, Miss Roberts would have been an entirely appropriate person to be left alone to get on with her course rather than sent off into the forces.

    ISTR reading the memoir of a deaf MP who was free of conscription and an undergrad at Oxford during the war - very much in demand, vast oversurplus of nubile females.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,357

    Heathener said:

    On topic, the LibDem poster is hard-hitting and effective.

    The Conservatives are consigning themselves to a landslide defeat in two years.

    Why do we not see that in the opinion polls?
    Arguably, we are: the combined Labour + LibDem + Green number in all polls is now almost always at 55%+ and is sometimes now getting close to 60%. The Tories, meanwhile, have on occasions been as low as 31%, their 1997 election result.

    The Tories polled lower than now during the 2010-2015 Parliament. Suffice it to say that they did not suffer a landslide defeat in GE2015.
    The combined opposition was not polling as high, neither was the LOTO regularly leading on best PM, neither was there any doubt which party led on the economy.
    All good points, and yet we see very large numbers of 2019 Tory voters saying "Don't Know" to pollsters - 28% are don't know/would not vote/refused in the latest YouGov, compared to 17% in a random May 2013 YouGov poll. I'd suggest that these voters will be easier to tempt back, as they haven't made the step of saying they will vote for another party.

    There's a lot that needs to happen between now and the GE for Labour to win that election, let alone by a landslide.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited May 2022

    YouGov / The Times
    Sample Size: 1,115
    Fieldwork: 18-23 May 2022
    (+/- change from 18-22 November 2021)

    Westminster voting intention

    SNP 46% (-2)
    Lab 22% (+4)
    Con 19% (-1)
    LD 6% (nc)
    Grn 3% (nc)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    oth 2% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - FPTP constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    Lab 23% (+4)
    Con 18% (-3)
    LD 7% (nc)
    Grn 2% (nc)
    oth 3% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - List vote

    SNP 39% (+1)
    Lab 21% (+2)
    Con 18% (-1)
    Grn 10% (-1)
    LD 8% (+1)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    All for Unity 0 (-1)
    UKIP 0 (-1)
    oth 1% (nc)


    No 55% Yes 45% from the same poll

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1529397583776464896?s=20&t=GzBpx5_5UYR31Se1J5mDZQ
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249
    CD13 said:

    Mr StillWaters,

    "A New York-bred stakes winner who sold for $150,000 at Keeneland as a broodmare prospect is actually a male, according to a lawsuit pending in Lexington, Kentucky."

    No problem. Assuming it's a complete defect in the androgen receptor (equivalent to CAIS in humans), it will have no 'testosterone benefit' so all's well. Anyway, don't be so transphobic. It's the 'lived' experience that counts, and gender not sex is what matters nowadays.

    I didn’t comment on the horse! Just on the fact that the vet should have identified a lack of ovaries before certifying it was in breeding condition…
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    On topic @geoffw and I debated the use by the Conservatives of Boris in their literature a few days ago. The disagreement was very amicable and just down to whether he is a vote winner or not. I think that the LDs are using this leaflet shows they think he isn't. I would have thought most people would have agreed with this.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249
    malcolmg said:

    BREAKING: The U.S., Britain and EU announce the formation of the Atrocity Crimes Advisory Group to help war crimes investigations in Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1529588083922030594

    That will help, some cushy well paid jobs for the chums
    I’m told there is a recently available expert investigator with experience of operating at the highest level of government. Very reliable.

    😉
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249
    Cyclefree said:

    Unless I missed it, nowhere in Cumbria was deemed worthy of inclusion in the list of places MPs had to visit.

    Tsk .......



    Well worth a visit… just impossible to get there 😂
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835

    I see that the Texas shooter wore dresses is the latest ‘reason’ from the gun nuts.

    Terribly anti-woke of them.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Heathener said:

    On topic, the LibDem poster is hard-hitting and effective.

    The Conservatives are consigning themselves to a landslide defeat in two years.

    Why do we not see that in the opinion polls?
    Arguably, we are: the combined Labour + LibDem + Green number in all polls is now almost always at 55%+ and is sometimes now getting close to 60%. The Tories, meanwhile, have on occasions been as low as 31%, their 1997 election result.

    The Tories polled lower than now during the 2010-2015 Parliament. Suffice it to say that they did not suffer a landslide defeat in GE2015.
    The combined opposition was not polling as high, neither was the LOTO regularly leading on best PM, neither was there any doubt which party led on the economy.
    All good points, and yet we see very large numbers of 2019 Tory voters saying "Don't Know" to pollsters - 28% are don't know/would not vote/refused in the latest YouGov, compared to 17% in a random May 2013 YouGov poll. I'd suggest that these voters will be easier to tempt back, as they haven't made the step of saying they will vote for another party.

    There's a lot that needs to happen between now and the GE for Labour to win that election, let alone by a landslide.
    I don’t think Labour will get an overall majority. But that doesn’t mean the Tories will not get an absolute hammering.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited May 2022

    Heathener said:

    On topic, the LibDem poster is hard-hitting and effective.

    The Conservatives are consigning themselves to a landslide defeat in two years.

    Why do we not see that in the opinion polls?
    Arguably, we are: the combined Labour + LibDem + Green number in all polls is now almost always at 55%+ and is sometimes now getting close to 60%. The Tories, meanwhile, have on occasions been as low as 31%, their 1997 election result.

    The Tories polled lower than now during the 2010-2015 Parliament. Suffice it to say that they did not suffer a landslide defeat in GE2015.
    The combined opposition was not polling as high, neither was the LOTO regularly leading on best PM, neither was there any doubt which party led on the economy.
    All good points, and yet we see very large numbers of 2019 Tory voters saying "Don't Know" to pollsters - 28% are don't know/would not vote/refused in the latest YouGov, compared to 17% in a random May 2013 YouGov poll. I'd suggest that these voters will be easier to tempt back, as they haven't made the step of saying they will vote for another party.

    There's a lot that needs to happen between now and the GE for Labour to win that election, let alone by a landslide.
    And Boris is a “lucky general”, as we have seen time and again. He’s used to winning, and he’s good at winning. That is significant

    You can see the terror in the eyes of Lefties, as they contemplate him. It is one reason they desperately want him gone, because he unnerves them; a lot of the hysterical hatred and moral disapproval of him is just badly-disguised fear

    And even though I get some satisfaction at detecting this fear, I agree that he is a shoddy PM
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,715
    In candid, private moments, Conservative MPs, in northern as well as southern seats, will admit to being shaken at the scale of their constituents’ fury, even before the cost of living crisis runs its course. By 2024, in the absence of a seismic change to the Government’s performance and style, impoverished swing voters will surely find a “time for change after 14 years in office” message all too irresistible.



    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/05/25/tory-britain-faces-extinction-hands-radical-hard-left-alliance/
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249
    Farooq said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Farooq said:

    I think we do the UK in ten:

    Sunderland
    Ullapool
    Caithness
    Kilkeel
    Manchester
    Yeovil
    Derby
    Ipswich
    Camborne
    Kendal

    Right...

    The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.


    Sunderland - England
    Ullapool - Scotland
    Caithness - Scotland
    Kilkeel - Norther Ireland
    Manchester - England
    Yeovil - England
    Derby - England
    Ipswich - England
    Camborne - England
    Kendal - England

    It contains only one major conurbation, despite the fact that tens of millions of the UK's denizens live in major cities - such as London, Birmingham, Edinburgh, etc. And contains nowhere from Wales.
    I apologise for making my list hard to swallow. How about

    Sunderland - England
    Ullapool - Scotland
    Caithness - Scotland
    Kilkeel - Northern Ireland
    Manchester - England
    Yeovil - England
    Cardiff - Wales
    Orpington - England
    Camborne - England
    Kendal - England
    You’re not as funny as you think you are
  • kjh said:

    On topic @geoffw and I debated the use by the Conservatives of Boris in their literature a few days ago. The disagreement was very amicable and just down to whether he is a vote winner or not. I think that the LDs are using this leaflet shows they think he isn't. I would have thought most people would have agreed with this.

    It seems the LDs think he very much is a vote winner . . . For them.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    FPT


    I see Guildford MP has said it is all unacceptable and had that report been about her she would have resigned.

    SE Tory MPs starting to feel the steely cold edge of the executioner's sword as the LibDems prepare to take their seats?

    All of these protestations are utterly meaningless unless they do something concrete about the problem.
    As I posted earlier, this is Starmer's best ever day as leader.

    Johnson remains. His party hasn't the guts to ditch the lying cad and the public increasingly loathe him and all his lies.

    Game on for jan 2025.
    Good grief can he stretch it out into 2025 now?
    It’s always been an option, although winter elections are still rare.
    There was a PB discussion earlier about Jan 2025 sparked by a tweet from a strategist or focus group guru. That is last possible date.
    January is a grim month. The jollity of Christmas but a memory, bills to pay, tax returns to complete, poor weather, diets and dry January. Not the time for Johnsonion puffery.
    It would very much be an indication he expects to lose, and I think he very much would and lose badly.
    Maybe not 1997, but they could lose 100 seats or so.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    HYUFD said:

    YouGov / The Times
    Sample Size: 1,115
    Fieldwork: 18-23 May 2022
    (+/- change from 18-22 November 2021)

    Westminster voting intention

    SNP 46% (-2)
    Lab 22% (+4)
    Con 19% (-1)
    LD 6% (nc)
    Grn 3% (nc)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    oth 2% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - FPTP constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    Lab 23% (+4)
    Con 18% (-3)
    LD 7% (nc)
    Grn 2% (nc)
    oth 3% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - List vote

    SNP 39% (+1)
    Lab 21% (+2)
    Con 18% (-1)
    Grn 10% (-1)
    LD 8% (+1)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    All for Unity 0 (-1)
    UKIP 0 (-1)
    oth 1% (nc)


    No 55% Yes 45% from the same poll

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1529397583776464896?s=20&t=GzBpx5_5UYR31Se1J5mDZQ
    I see the Tories are going down still, not helped by their local branch manager going round in circles over Mr Johnson. If they get much worse they'll be at risk of underlapping the LDs (especially as any votes they lose will go to the LDs in particular).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Cyclefree said:

    Unless I missed it, nowhere in Cumbria was deemed worthy of inclusion in the list of places MPs had to visit.

    Tsk .......



    Or Wiltshire.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    HYUFD said:

    YouGov / The Times
    Sample Size: 1,115
    Fieldwork: 18-23 May 2022
    (+/- change from 18-22 November 2021)

    Westminster voting intention

    SNP 46% (-2)
    Lab 22% (+4)
    Con 19% (-1)
    LD 6% (nc)
    Grn 3% (nc)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    oth 2% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - FPTP constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    Lab 23% (+4)
    Con 18% (-3)
    LD 7% (nc)
    Grn 2% (nc)
    oth 3% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - List vote

    SNP 39% (+1)
    Lab 21% (+2)
    Con 18% (-1)
    Grn 10% (-1)
    LD 8% (+1)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    All for Unity 0 (-1)
    UKIP 0 (-1)
    oth 1% (nc)


    No 55% Yes 45% from the same poll

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1529397583776464896?s=20&t=GzBpx5_5UYR31Se1J5mDZQ
    The good news from Rentoul's tweets is that we might only have another 85 years to go before the politicians of Scotland stop wrangling about constitutional questions and start addressing Scotland's multiple difficulties. You might even be able to make the argument that this sad obsession really took hold as early as 1979 which would put us more than 40 years through this nonsense.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,715
    Seems to be a daily stream now of Telegraph pieces from commentators and columnists saying Johnson is leading Tories to electoral disaster.

    Interesting that his "boss" seems to have had enough.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    £10 billion government support package to help households cut hundreds off energy bills

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61584546
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:


    John Cleese
    @JohnCleese
    ·
    5h
    Alastair,

    I think that the longer Boris lingers, the more damage he will do to the current Tory party

    So...let's keep him there as long as we can

    https://twitter.com/JohnCleese/status/1529518066148683777

    I just can't stand this attitude. It's literally no better than the Custard Conservatives who are failing to remove Boris. Country before party, people! Keeping Boris looks a lot to me like electoral seppuku for the Tories, but it's bad for the country too.

    Those who want the country to suffer for relative party advantage are not the good guys whichever side they're on.
    Correct. And as people keep saying he is awfully good at winning elections. The bollocks about All the better if he is still in place in 2024, is bollocks. Because the thought of him with another 5 year mandate is Hitler level frightening.
    Boris Derangement Syndrome rears its ugly head.

    Our Prime Minister, whose vaccine programme saved thousands of lives, is as frightening as a man who caused 30 million deaths, because he had a couple of drinks jn his own house and then shaved the truth about it. Apparently.
    For those of us with Johnson Derangement Syndrome, some of whom crossed that line yesterday, there is a disbelief at the unquestioning support of this odious creature, and the acceptance that his cock and bull defence must be true, and we have to move on.

    The idea that Johnson overcame the Ministerial Code with another lie, upon lie, upon lie, with the story growing more absurd with each denial is really rather frightening. It's Trumpesque, it's plain wrong! Justice has not been served.

    Your assertion, that we should allow Johnson's misbehaviour and outrageous defence of it because he oversaw a (credit where it is due) successful and slightly quicker than elsewhere vaccine rollout is an odd one. It's like suggesting Harold Shipman's pleasant bedside manner made him an excellent GP, or we should mitigate Fred West's crimes because he was a first class plasterer.

    Yesterday was a bad day for democracy.
    The shot of his grinning mug as, passing by with a gaggle of sycophants, he called out rubbish over the Newsnight presenter's piece in the Commons corridor last night, was particularly odious.

    Humble indeed.
    His defence is just absurd.

    "Officer, I simply didn't realise I was driving at 140mph, I could have sworn it was 70" or " I can't believe I'm over the drink drive limit, I was sure I only had a swift half"."In that case, on your way sir and have a nice day".

    Lies, damned lies and even more damned lies.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    On topic, the LibDem poster is hard-hitting and effective.

    The Conservatives are consigning themselves to a landslide defeat in two years.

    Why do we not see that in the opinion polls?
    Arguably, we are: the combined Labour + LibDem + Green number in all polls is now almost always at 55%+ and is sometimes now getting close to 60%. The Tories, meanwhile, have on occasions been as low as 31%, their 1997 election result.

    The Tories polled lower than now during the 2010-2015 Parliament. Suffice it to say that they did not suffer a landslide defeat in GE2015.
    The combined opposition was not polling as high, neither was the LOTO regularly leading on best PM, neither was there any doubt which party led on the economy.
    All good points, and yet we see very large numbers of 2019 Tory voters saying "Don't Know" to pollsters - 28% are don't know/would not vote/refused in the latest YouGov, compared to 17% in a random May 2013 YouGov poll. I'd suggest that these voters will be easier to tempt back, as they haven't made the step of saying they will vote for another party.

    There's a lot that needs to happen between now and the GE for Labour to win that election, let alone by a landslide.
    And Boris is a “lucky general”, as we have seen time and again. He’s used to winning, and he’s good at winning. That is significant

    You can see the terror in the eyes of Lefties, as they contemplate him. It is one reason they desperately want him gone, because he unnerves them; a lot of the hysterical hatred and moral disapproval of him is just badly-disguised fear

    And even though I get some satisfaction at detecting this fear, I agree that he is a shoddy PM
    There it is. The sado-populism at the heart of this whole project. "I don't like him, but I like the other side suffering enough to relish it." He is Britain Trump, and you are Britain Maga Hat.
    But this is not true. You’ve just proved my point. The hysteria about Boris is overdone. Earlier on this thread an apparently sane PB-er seriously compared Boris to Hitler.

    Hitler? Really?? Boris has many faults, but he isn’t about to set up gas chambers

    Likewise, I find Bozza alarmingly lax and depressingly bereft of good ideas, but I have no fear that he might try to overturn democracy and cancel an election (it’s the Remoaners that did that). Boris is not Trump, either

    Calm the F down. This knicker-wetting will be a handicap for the Left if it continues. This is where Boris DOES use Trumpite tactics (tho many politicians use this tactic) - he does and says things which he knows will provoke his thin-skinned foes, so they lose it, and focus on the naughty words, and forget their real target

    And who doesn’t enjoy the lamentations of their enemies? It is one of the modest joys of being a politics geek
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    Farooq said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Unless I missed it, nowhere in Cumbria was deemed worthy of inclusion in the list of places MPs had to visit.

    Tsk .......



    Well worth a visit… just impossible to get there 😂
    3.5 hours by train to Kendal from central London? There are harder places to reach.
    I am going to Kendal for a week's holiday next week. Very much looking forward to it and open to suggestions of good days out. Its about 3.5 hours drive from Dundee.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    YouGov / The Times
    Sample Size: 1,115
    Fieldwork: 18-23 May 2022
    (+/- change from 18-22 November 2021)

    Westminster voting intention

    SNP 46% (-2)
    Lab 22% (+4)
    Con 19% (-1)
    LD 6% (nc)
    Grn 3% (nc)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    oth 2% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - FPTP constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    Lab 23% (+4)
    Con 18% (-3)
    LD 7% (nc)
    Grn 2% (nc)
    oth 3% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - List vote

    SNP 39% (+1)
    Lab 21% (+2)
    Con 18% (-1)
    Grn 10% (-1)
    LD 8% (+1)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    All for Unity 0 (-1)
    UKIP 0 (-1)
    oth 1% (nc)


    No 55% Yes 45% from the same poll

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1529397583776464896?s=20&t=GzBpx5_5UYR31Se1J5mDZQ
    The good news from Rentoul's tweets is that we might only have another 85 years to go before the politicians of Scotland stop wrangling about constitutional questions and start addressing Scotland's multiple difficulties. You might even be able to make the argument that this sad obsession really took hold as early as 1979 which would put us more than 40 years through this nonsense.
    All you need to do is to persuade the party which you support relentlessly to come up with a vision and policies that Scots might vote for. Even one policy would be a start.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    DavidL said:

    Farooq said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Unless I missed it, nowhere in Cumbria was deemed worthy of inclusion in the list of places MPs had to visit.

    Tsk .......



    Well worth a visit… just impossible to get there 😂
    3.5 hours by train to Kendal from central London? There are harder places to reach.
    I am going to Kendal for a week's holiday next week. Very much looking forward to it and open to suggestions of good days out. Its about 3.5 hours drive from Dundee.
    Of course, Kendal is as near as one can get to the geographical centre of the UK. It's the perception of Londoners, stuck out on the periphery, that is wildly out. I mean, Wick is vastly closer to the centre of things than London is.
  • HYUFD said:

    £10 billion government support package to help households cut hundreds off energy bills

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61584546

    Implementing Labour policy again. Why not just have a Labour government and cut out the middle man?

    On a personal level I'll be glad for the support, but on a political and economical level its utterly pathetic. If you're going to do this, it could have been done months ago, but it wasn't and for good reason because it was a bad idea. It was a bad idea then, its still a bad idea now, but they're doing it anyway.

    Pathetic. Utterly pathetic.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    YouGov / The Times
    Sample Size: 1,115
    Fieldwork: 18-23 May 2022
    (+/- change from 18-22 November 2021)

    Westminster voting intention

    SNP 46% (-2)
    Lab 22% (+4)
    Con 19% (-1)
    LD 6% (nc)
    Grn 3% (nc)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    oth 2% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - FPTP constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    Lab 23% (+4)
    Con 18% (-3)
    LD 7% (nc)
    Grn 2% (nc)
    oth 3% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - List vote

    SNP 39% (+1)
    Lab 21% (+2)
    Con 18% (-1)
    Grn 10% (-1)
    LD 8% (+1)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    All for Unity 0 (-1)
    UKIP 0 (-1)
    oth 1% (nc)


    No 55% Yes 45% from the same poll

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1529397583776464896?s=20&t=GzBpx5_5UYR31Se1J5mDZQ
    The good news from Rentoul's tweets is that we might only have another 85 years to go before the politicians of Scotland stop wrangling about constitutional questions and start addressing Scotland's multiple difficulties. You might even be able to make the argument that this sad obsession really took hold as early as 1979 which would put us more than 40 years through this nonsense.
    All you need to do is to persuade the party which you support relentlessly to come up with a vision and policies that Scots might vote for. Even one policy would be a start.
    I completely agree Divvie. No to independence is not a policy for government. Nor is laughing at the stunning incompetence of Nicola's coterie. That joke wore out a long time ago. Scotland needs an alternative government. It is looking more likely that will come from Labour than the Tories.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    YouGov / The Times
    Sample Size: 1,115
    Fieldwork: 18-23 May 2022
    (+/- change from 18-22 November 2021)

    Westminster voting intention

    SNP 46% (-2)
    Lab 22% (+4)
    Con 19% (-1)
    LD 6% (nc)
    Grn 3% (nc)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    oth 2% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - FPTP constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    Lab 23% (+4)
    Con 18% (-3)
    LD 7% (nc)
    Grn 2% (nc)
    oth 3% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - List vote

    SNP 39% (+1)
    Lab 21% (+2)
    Con 18% (-1)
    Grn 10% (-1)
    LD 8% (+1)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    All for Unity 0 (-1)
    UKIP 0 (-1)
    oth 1% (nc)


    No 55% Yes 45% from the same poll

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1529397583776464896?s=20&t=GzBpx5_5UYR31Se1J5mDZQ
    The good news from Rentoul's tweets is that we might only have another 85 years to go before the politicians of Scotland stop wrangling about constitutional questions and start addressing Scotland's multiple difficulties. You might even be able to make the argument that this sad obsession really took hold as early as 1979 which would put us more than 40 years through this nonsense.
    All you need to do is to persuade the party which you support relentlessly to come up with a vision and policies that Scots might vote for. Even one policy would be a start.
    Its vote is also disappearing at a rather high rate of knots. 18% is pretty thin, though, so perhaps the reduction will bottom out soon, and start bouncing along the sea floor. Though that depends on how long Mr Johnson remains PM, given his distinctive vote-winning ability in Scotland.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    HYUFD said:

    £10 billion government support package to help households cut hundreds off energy bills

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61584546

    Wrong, wrong, wrong. £10bn on UC could have made a real difference for those suffering genuine hardship as opposed to wondering if they can afford a second ski trip.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Leon said:

    I have no fear that he might try to overturn democracy and cancel an election

    He illegally shutdown Parliament when they wouldn't vote the way he wanted.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    edited May 2022
    HYUFD said:

    £10 billion government support package to help households cut hundreds off energy bills

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61584546

    Do we have to rename Captain Hindsight as Captain Foresight for predicting this at last weeks PMQs?

    Opetation Reverse Ferret in full swing. Why do the Cabinet Ministers set themselves up for this humiliation so readily?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Farooq said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Unless I missed it, nowhere in Cumbria was deemed worthy of inclusion in the list of places MPs had to visit.

    Tsk .......



    Well worth a visit… just impossible to get there 😂
    3.5 hours by train to Kendal from central London? There are harder places to reach.
    I am going to Kendal for a week's holiday next week. Very much looking forward to it and open to suggestions of good days out. Its about 3.5 hours drive from Dundee.
    Of course, Kendal is as near as one can get to the geographical centre of the UK. It's the perception of Londoners, stuck out on the periphery, that is wildly out. I mean, Wick is vastly closer to the centre of things than London is.
    Wick isn't close to anywhere and even further from anywhere you would want to go.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,255
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    I have no fear that he might try to overturn democracy and cancel an election

    He illegally shutdown Parliament when they wouldn't vote the way he wanted.
    To be exact, he tried to get parliament prorogued.

    Then a court case was brought. Which said it it wasn't allowed. So he didn't.

    Incidentally, I have one for the Putin-Must-Have-A-Way out types...

    1) Boris Johnson apparently is the next Hitler
    2) Which means he must be worse than Putin
    3) If he is worse than Putin, if the Western side loses in Ukraine...
    4) ... won't he use nuclear weapons?
    5) Surely this means that everyone on the planet needs to appease Boris Johnson?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    I have no fear that he might try to overturn democracy and cancel an election

    He illegally shutdown Parliament when they wouldn't vote the way he wanted.
    And the Supreme Court slapped him down. He didn’t then organise a million strong march on parliament to menace MPs (it was the Remoaners that did that)

    In your heart of hearts you know that Boris isn’t Hitler or Trump or any of this nonsense (well maybe you do, but you’ve been driven insane by Brexit).

    If lefties want Boris gone they need to get a grip and stop over-reacting. And maybe get a better leader than Sir Beer Korma, if he is turfed out by the cops
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Unless I missed it, nowhere in Cumbria was deemed worthy of inclusion in the list of places MPs had to visit.

    Tsk .......

    Looking at the lot in show in recent days, I'd be grateful.
    True enough.

    I can get from Millom to North London in under 5 hours by car while sticking to the speed limits. One of the delights of doing so is just to drive over the fells from Gawthwaite down to Beanthwaite and Grizebeck. The view across the fells and down over the Duddon Estuary is magnificent. It is one of the most beautiful stretches of road anywhere in England, no matter what the time of year or day.

    There are fast trains to Kendal which is the start of the Lakes. And you can get a train to my village too, changing at Lancaster and Barrow. We have to hail it. It's a delightful 2 carriage train which goes all the way round the coast and I can see it and hear it tootling its way round the estuary from my living-room window. The train is the easiest and much less expensive of course if you book sensibly.

    Getting around Cumbria when you are here is more of a problem. A lot of railway lines were closed and as for buses, pah!

    I have been watching petrol prices like a hawk. A few weeks back they were down to 161p a litre. Yesterday - 173p. Eek!

    Thank God for bicycles!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    £10 billion government support package to help households cut hundreds off energy bills

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61584546

    Wrong, wrong, wrong. £10bn on UC could have made a real difference for those suffering genuine hardship as opposed to wondering if they can afford a second ski trip.
    It will include those on UC with additional support for those on low incomes
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    £10 billion government support package to help households cut hundreds off energy bills

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61584546

    Wrong, wrong, wrong. £10bn on UC could have made a real difference for those suffering genuine hardship as opposed to wondering if they can afford a second ski trip.
    UC receivers don't vote Tory. Pensioners do...
    So? We need a government that is focused on the real needs of the country, not simply getting itself elected again. Boris is not providing it.

    (How's that "relentless support" going @Theuniondivvie ?)
  • Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    I have no fear that he might try to overturn democracy and cancel an election

    He illegally shutdown Parliament when they wouldn't vote the way he wanted.
    No he didn't. He acts in a way that followed precedent until then, in a way the High Court unanimously ruled was lawful.

    Then the Supreme Court invented new rules and new case law and precedent that reversed that, and their ruling was respected, not ignored.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited May 2022
    Well I'm no fan of the government, but I won't say no to a few hundred quid off the gas and leccy.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    I have no fear that he might try to overturn democracy and cancel an election

    He illegally shutdown Parliament when they wouldn't vote the way he wanted.
    To be exact, he tried to get parliament prorogued.

    Then a court case was brought. Which said it it wasn't allowed. So he didn't.

    Incidentally, I have one for the Putin-Must-Have-A-Way out types...

    1) Boris Johnson apparently is the next Hitler
    2) Which means he must be worse than Putin
    3) If he is worse than Putin, if the Western side loses in Ukraine...
    4) ... won't he use nuclear weapons?
    5) Surely this means that everyone on the planet needs to appease Boris Johnson?
    Someone who still thinks Johnson is funny.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,900
    Sandpit said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    On topic, the LibDem poster is hard-hitting and effective.

    The Conservatives are consigning themselves to a landslide defeat in two years.

    Why do we not see that in the opinion polls?
    I think we will ...
    What is going to change that will see a change in the opinion polls?
    1. That parties of the left be able to define “Woman”, in a way that 3/4 of the population doesn’t think is barmy?

    As we have seen in the US, so much political polarisation is now down to social, rather than economic, issues.

    2. The same parties not to give the impression that they will try and tie the UK to the EU, were they to come to power.
    This government have tied the UK to the EU. Having declared that implementation of the oven-ready deal would be "self-harm", the Moggster has scrapped indefinitely all plans to have UK product standards. The EU standards - which we share as we largely created them - will remain our standards.

    Only we're killing export by having one-way only costs to check that the same standards are still the same. Some people are too cleverstupid and think either rhetoric or indoctrinated theory trumps the real world. So they keep saying how marvellous it is, or that export only costs are an EU imposed tax on the EU.

    So yes, perhaps your line may be an issue in late 24. Doubt it though. Even the Heil will be full of expose stories about how stuff in the UK costs more than in the EU.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    £10 billion government support package to help households cut hundreds off energy bills

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61584546

    Do we have to rename Captain Hindsight as Captain Foresight for predicting this at last weeks PMQs?

    Opetation Reverse Ferret in full swing. Why do the Cabinet Ministers set themselves up for this humiliation so readily?
    It's things like Captain Hindsight and Sir Beer Korma that Labour should and does fear with Boris. Most Brits don't take any politicians seriously and one that can make you laugh has a huge advantage. SKS is very much the Ernie Wise of these 2 and they know it.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    Someone on the news talking about "turning the thermostat down".

    Er no. It's May. Turn the heating off. It goes back on in October, or November if you can get away with it.

    Turning the thermostat down is what I did last winter.

    I think the thermostat is a red herring here. We have just had our May statement. No heating on, hot water on now and again, electric light in relevant rooms, TV usage, cooking at the usual times. The net effect with added standing charges was £168

    For a summer month that is horrendous.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Leon said:

    In your heart of hearts you know that Boris isn’t Hitler or Trump

    In your heart of hearts you know he wants to be

    He doesn't think he did anything wrong, as he said repeatedly in 2020 'Everyone better remember I'm the fucking Fuhrer around here'
    #RegimeChange

    https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1529430493678166017
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,715
    Interesting...

    For first time in I don't know how long my supermarket has emailed to say that today's delivery will contain everything I ordered with no substitutions.

    Just a one-off or are we seeing the end of the supply chain issues?
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 882
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    I have no fear that he might try to overturn democracy and cancel an election

    Oddly, people said the same thing about Trump until he did. And a lot of people who are addicted to the pain still can't admit that he did. Boris is ruining British politics and turning it into what you prefer, car-crash entertainment.
    I love American politics. I love the drama of it all, how everything is an existential crisis. A septugenarian dies at the wrong time and the fate of American politics is suddenly at stake. The contest is so bitter, and the stakes seem so high that it's the greatest entertainment on Earth. The oratory it is wrapped up in is, by turns, absurd or inspiring. High ideals and low methods. And it's an absolutely terrible way to run a country. It's not something we should seek to replicate.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    £10 billion government support package to help households cut hundreds off energy bills

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61584546

    Wrong, wrong, wrong. £10bn on UC could have made a real difference for those suffering genuine hardship as opposed to wondering if they can afford a second ski trip.
    UC receivers don't vote Tory. Pensioners do...
    So? We need a government that is focused on the real needs of the country, not simply getting itself elected again. Boris is not providing it.

    (How's that "relentless support" going @Theuniondivvie ?)
    This Government is made up of people who won't do anything unless there is something in it for themselves.

    That may be cash, it may be future gain (i.e. a job or directorship post the next election) or it may simply be ensuring they bribe the people they need to retain their seat at the next election.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,715
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    £10 billion government support package to help households cut hundreds off energy bills

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61584546

    Wrong, wrong, wrong. £10bn on UC could have made a real difference for those suffering genuine hardship as opposed to wondering if they can afford a second ski trip.
    UC receivers don't vote Tory. Pensioners do...
    So? We need a government that is focused on the real needs of the country, not simply getting itself elected again. Boris is not providing it.

    (How's that "relentless support" going @Theuniondivvie ?)
    The Treasury don't want to add anything to UC because they don't believe it will be allowed to fall back again later.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    I have no fear that he might try to overturn democracy and cancel an election

    He illegally shutdown Parliament when they wouldn't vote the way he wanted.
    He’s making it harder to vote, placing the Electoral Commission under government control, criminalising peaceful protest, using statutory instruments to bypass Parliamentary scrutiny, reducing the ability of the courts to hold the executive to account and planning on reneging on the Northern Ireland Protocol in defiance of the wishes of the majority of people in Northern Ireland. All this, while presiding over the removal of fundamental freedoms from UK citizens.

    Johnson’s obviously not Hitler - and such comparisons are not only utterly ridiculous, but also totally demean Hitler’s victims - but he clearly has no significant attachment to democracy or liberty. His only concern is himself and he’ll do whatever he can get away with to further what he believes are his own, personal, interests.

    He arranged for some brown people to be tortured to death last year to pander to his wife's fondness for pet dogs. Good old Bojo, hey?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    Fishing said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:


    John Cleese
    @JohnCleese
    ·
    5h
    Alastair,

    I think that the longer Boris lingers, the more damage he will do to the current Tory party

    So...let's keep him there as long as we can

    https://twitter.com/JohnCleese/status/1529518066148683777

    I just can't stand this attitude. It's literally no better than the Custard Conservatives who are failing to remove Boris. Country before party, people! Keeping Boris looks a lot to me like electoral seppuku for the Tories, but it's bad for the country too.

    Those who want the country to suffer for relative party advantage are not the good guys whichever side they're on.
    Correct. And as people keep saying he is awfully good at winning elections. The bollocks about All the better if he is still in place in 2024, is bollocks. Because the thought of him with another 5 year mandate is Hitler level frightening.
    Boris Derangement Syndrome rears its ugly head.

    Our Prime Minister, whose vaccine programme saved thousands of lives, is as frightening as a man who caused 30 million deaths, because he had a couple of drinks jn his own house and then shaved the truth about it. Apparently.
    For those of us with Johnson Derangement Syndrome, some of whom crossed that line yesterday, there is a disbelief at the unquestioning support of this odious creature, and the acceptance that his cock and bull defence must be true, and we have to move on.

    The idea that Johnson overcame the Ministerial Code with another lie, upon lie, upon lie, with the story growing more absurd with each denial is really rather frightening. It's Trumpesque, it's plain wrong! Justice has not been served.

    Your assertion, that we should allow Johnson's misbehaviour and outrageous defence of it because he oversaw a (credit where it is due) successful and slightly quicker than elsewhere vaccine rollout is an odd one. It's like suggesting Harold Shipman's pleasant bedside manner made him an excellent GP, or we should mitigate Fred West's crimes because he was a first class plasterer.

    Yesterday was a bad day for democracy.
    Why was yesterday a “bad day for democracy”?

    No vote on getting rid of Boris by the voters was suppressed or cancelled. It didn’t change the fact that at some point people will get a vote at a GE and if he’s still then then they have their democratic say on his actions.

    The fact that we are in a democracy means that, unlike in an autocracy or fascist state, means that the public can make their criticisms publicly, the press can report freely and people can make up their own minds.

    Do you think in a non-democracy that people would have even heard about these parties and been able to criticise publicly - especially members of the governing party?

    So not sure why it’s a bad day for democracy.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    £10 billion government support package to help households cut hundreds off energy bills

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61584546

    Do we have to rename Captain Hindsight as Captain Foresight for predicting this at last weeks PMQs?

    Opetation Reverse Ferret in full swing. Why do the Cabinet Ministers set themselves up for this humiliation so readily?
    It's things like Captain Hindsight and Sir Beer Korma that Labour should and does fear with Boris. Most Brits don't take any politicians seriously and one that can make you laugh has a huge advantage. SKS is very much the Ernie Wise of these 2 and they know it.
    That’s a very 2019/20 view. Partygate and the cost if living squeeze have changed outlooks. Johnson is making a few diehards laugh. No-one else.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    £10 billion government support package to help households cut hundreds off energy bills

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61584546

    Do we have to rename Captain Hindsight as Captain Foresight for predicting this at last weeks PMQs?

    Opetation Reverse Ferret in full swing. Why do the Cabinet Ministers set themselves up for this humiliation so readily?
    It's things like Captain Hindsight and Sir Beer Korma that Labour should and does fear with Boris. Most Brits don't take any politicians seriously and one that can make you laugh has a huge advantage. SKS is very much the Ernie Wise of these 2 and they know it.
    I think being associated with beer and takeaway curry has actually improved Starmers image. Not so stuffy, and more normal.

    Quite a lot of obvious difference to the bacchanalia that was Downing St over lockdown.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    YouGov / The Times
    Sample Size: 1,115
    Fieldwork: 18-23 May 2022
    (+/- change from 18-22 November 2021)

    Westminster voting intention

    SNP 46% (-2)
    Lab 22% (+4)
    Con 19% (-1)
    LD 6% (nc)
    Grn 3% (nc)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    oth 2% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - FPTP constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    Lab 23% (+4)
    Con 18% (-3)
    LD 7% (nc)
    Grn 2% (nc)
    oth 3% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - List vote

    SNP 39% (+1)
    Lab 21% (+2)
    Con 18% (-1)
    Grn 10% (-1)
    LD 8% (+1)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    All for Unity 0 (-1)
    UKIP 0 (-1)
    oth 1% (nc)


    No 55% Yes 45% from the same poll

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1529397583776464896?s=20&t=GzBpx5_5UYR31Se1J5mDZQ
    The good news from Rentoul's tweets is that we might only have another 85 years to go before the politicians of Scotland stop wrangling about constitutional questions and start addressing Scotland's multiple difficulties. You might even be able to make the argument that this sad obsession really took hold as early as 1979 which would put us more than 40 years through this nonsense.
    All you need to do is to persuade the party which you support relentlessly to come up with a vision and policies that Scots might vote for. Even one policy would be a start.
    I completely agree Divvie. No to independence is not a policy for government. Nor is laughing at the stunning incompetence of Nicola's coterie. That joke wore out a long time ago. Scotland needs an alternative government. It is looking more likely that will come from Labour than the Tories.
    The problem that Scotland has is that every time anyone mentions issues within Scotland (Education, Police, Health, Ship building) the SNP scream it would be different under independency and their voters continue voting for the SNP...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    I have no fear that he might try to overturn democracy and cancel an election

    Oddly, people said the same thing about Trump until he did. And a lot of people who are addicted to the pain still can't admit that he did.
    A lot of people are in denial about Trump doing it again and being better placed to succeed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Someone on the news talking about "turning the thermostat down".

    Er no. It's May. Turn the heating off. It goes back on in October, or November if you can get away with it.

    Turning the thermostat down is what I did last winter.

    I think the thermostat is a red herring here. We have just had our May statement. No heating on, hot water on now and again, electric light in relevant rooms, TV usage, cooking at the usual times. The net effect with added standing charges was £168

    For a summer month that is horrendous.

    Wonder if this is what is leading to the tales of people with lowish Direct debits getting v large proportionate increases.
    Standing charge increases should be linked to overhead, they ought to generally track CPI.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    £10 billion government support package to help households cut hundreds off energy bills

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61584546

    Wrong, wrong, wrong. £10bn on UC could have made a real difference for those suffering genuine hardship as opposed to wondering if they can afford a second ski trip.
    UC receivers don't vote Tory. Pensioners do...
    So? We need a government that is focused on the real needs of the country, not simply getting itself elected again. Boris is not providing it.

    (How's that "relentless support" going @Theuniondivvie ?)
    The Treasury don't want to add anything to UC because they don't believe it will be allowed to fall back again later.

    When will the Government grasp that these changes in costs (energy now, food later this year) are permanent (or as close to it as to make no difference).
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,900
    There is a blinkered pig-ignorance about the remaining pro-Boris advocates. Arrogance, hubris and in many MPs cases genuine stupidity allows the madness that what they think must be what all right-thinking people think because they are right-thinking.

    Meanwhile, out there in the real world the normals think "are you taking the piss?". Too many of these pieces directly comparing and contrasting the "I was doing essential work" with the legal instructions not to do such things. With grieving relatives being dragged apart at a funeral for someone who had died alone. With the virtual team things they had had to do like birthdays and leaving dos.

    "ah but there's all these scumbag doctors and nurses, if you investigate THEM you're bound to find bad'uns" says the generate moral vacuum that is today's Tory. The same immoral stupidity that says poor people are only hungry and in the dark because they can't cook or need to get a better job. The same sneering arrogance that will see a man who paid £10k out of his own pocket for a taxi ride to fundraiser throwing minor scraps to the plebs today then saying "why aren't you degenerates greatful"?

    So yes, do keep saying how the polls are ok. How the MPs are right and their constituents are wrong. Because even if there was a change of PM tomorrow we get to ride the down slope a while before things improve. So if you really want Bonzo there saying "what crisis" and his ministers sneering at their voters then go right ahead.
This discussion has been closed.