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Why this BoJo confidence wager is a good bet – politicalbetting.com
Why this BoJo confidence wager is a good bet – politicalbetting.com
The betting exchange, Smarkets, has just put up this market in anticipation perhaps of what might happen once MPs have all digested the Gray report.
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Don't forget the PHOTOS
Probably more a comment on the media coverage than anything, but still.
@CarlottaVance
"Words fail......
Scholz insists to journalists that he’s “not as stupid as Kaiser Wilhelm II” to let Germany fall into a big war. He does not view Ukrainian victory as the goal and prefers a strategy of “active waiting” – cautiously participating until Putin says he has accomplished his war goals
https://twitter.com/apmassaro3/status/1529372589382041605"
The thread below is interesting. Germans are also outraged at Scholz. WTF is he on?
He'll lead into the next GE, and possibly beyond. Because there's no one better.
The German establishment is hooked on Russian bribes.
He is also tanking the SPD in the polls
"Will the Greens in Germany overtake Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) in our Poll of Polls?
The Green Party has gained 5 percentage points in support since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and is polling neck-and-neck with its coalition partner, SPD."
https://twitter.com/pollofpolls_EU/status/1528770228187848704?s=20&t=-1TqsfsOsZONqUYnx2P1hg
Next Lab leader after Starmer, for example, could be more than a decade away.
I’ll have “Cheap Russian Gas” for $1000, please Alex.
Your post about the EU being unable to reform must be one of the daftest posts I have ever seen here. The EU being a young institution reforms and evolves like no other organisation I have ever seen. Just compare it to the trade block of 6 nations which existed in my adult lifetime. Now compare that to the House of Commons.
Now I accept people might not like the reforms and many of the arguments against the EU is it should go back to just being a trading organisation and that is a valid argument (even though I don't agree with it).
But to say it is incapable of reform or change is clearly ignorant and utterly bonkers.
PS Re Your post trying to get @Nigel_Foremain banned for making a post you don't like in response to you - Just so you know his post to you last time I saw had got 6 likes
"We will wait until Russia says it has won. At which point, Ukraine will not need the weapons...."
Rather more concerning that Gervais's comedy act (I understand he was using actual quotes of things said by TRA activists and if they do not like these being quoted back at them, they might reflect on why that might be) is a statement by a QC yesterday in the Bailey Employment Tribunal case.
The cross examination was about a seminar about how to overcome the "cotton ceiling" ie how to persuade lesbians that they should have sex with transwomen who still had male bodies. The QC (from the Chambers which is being sued) stated -
"You can persuade a lesbian that she might want to - that she could want to - have sex with a trans woman in a way that was not coercive."
Unfortunately, this does not reflect the law - which you'd have thought a QC who does rape cases - would know. The ECHR has ruled that any behaviour which seeks to negate or override a lack of consent to sex may be deemed coercive and that includes "persuasion". In short, sexual autonomy requires consent to be fully and freely given not something you should be persuaded into, even if that persuasion is something less than violence.
There is something abhorrent in the idea of seeking to persuade lesbians that they should have sex with people they are not sexually attracted to by definition. Indeed, there is something utterly vile in the idea that (a) women should not have boundaries (b) those boundaries should be breached if that is what is necessary to validate someone else's feelings and (c) if you choose to say no you are somehow being phobic or bigoted
What part of "No means No" is hard to understand. I am old enough to remember when if you didn't want to have sex with a man they would accuse you of being a lesbian and if you were a lesbian men would tell you that all you needed was a good screw from them to sort it out. We are now seeing some revolting old wine in new bottles, sadly.
Women - whether lesbians or straight - have no obligation to have sex with anyone and don't need to justify this either. Seminars to "persuade" them is the mentality of the rapist.
Transgender people deserve consideration but the activist movement has got itself into a very dark place when it comes out with this sort of stuff and is doing genuine transgender people no good at all.
Incidentally, the consultation period on the Scottish government's proposed GRA reforms has ended and the results are that just under 60% of the responses opposed the proposal. Will La Sturgeon listen?
He's disloyal, so inspires no loyalty.No empathy, so has few friends. Totally lacking in ideology, so has no hardcore followers.
I don't see any positive reasons to vote for him.
They're all negatives.
That may be enough. But I wouldn't bet on it. He's screwed over everyone he comes into contact with.
The US, UK, etc. aren't giving Ukraine enough help to win. They could and would be doing a lot more if that were the goal. They are doing just enough to let Ukraine lose slowly and inflict maximum pain on Russia.
He's Winning votes. There is no evidence the polling would improve substantially with anyone else. That's the key metric.
Seminars on persuading people to have sex with someone they don't want to sounds like something from a parody dystopia. Too high risk. Even if it seemed even more unlikely the consequences of being wrong would be catastrophic. Odd then that you threw in two bullshit simplistic explanations around gaming and movies.
Its nonsense. Not only do they have those in, say, Switzerland, movie and videogame violence is in almost all cases not realistic, it's more a pastiche. People can tell the difference, it's why we might thrill to go see the next Tarantino splatterfest but a 2 minute report on the Ukrainian war which might show a dead body for 2 seconds will contain a warning.
What desensitizes people is experience of actual violence. Colourful depictions of fake violence do not. Look, when the man has been bought he stays bought, you have to respect that.
The Met - well, what can I say that I haven't already said a zillion times.
And in Scotland the Scottish government has completely misrepresented some of the scientific evidence it has received on the GRA issue.
Our institutions and the way they work are crumbling.
And it also looks as if Russia is making some advances in the east of Ukraine so they may very well grind out a terrible victory there too. Yuck!
It is really a bit depressing.
Anyway I am off to do a bit of work, writing and then fiction reading. Rainy and windy today so no gardening for me, sadly.
But when the world is a horrible place, best to immerse oneself in a nicer invented one.
TTFN
However on what planet is someone in court arguing that people should be persuaded to have sex with anyone or any group of people - gay, straight, trans, LFC supporter, why even Flint Knapper - that they don't want to have sex with.
It is so bizarre as to be out of Alice in Wonderland. In a court of law. Amazing. Have I got it right?
It's a mind boggling and repulsive statement from the QC. Transgender politics is insane. And btw this also applies to straight men. Am I a hate-criminal homophobe or transphobe if I prefer not to suck a transman's penis, just because he claims he is now a woman?
It's quite close to state-sanctioned rape. The only upside is that the TRA are so obviously crazy and extreme they are destroying their own cause. One hopes
I just think Starmer especially would really struggle against Mordaunt. She will connect where he will not.
In the first days of the war, U.S. officials and British troops worked separately. But the British military—headed by the 104 Theater Sustainment Brigade—set up a software system with a Ukrainian code name akin to Craigslist, where Ukrainians can post weapons requests and countries can pull down separate cases. By the beginning of April, the U.S. and British efforts had merged into one unit
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/24/nato-ukraine-military-aid-germany/
That's a negative reason though. Fear of losing position. Along with. Someone else may be worse. My faction may lose (conveniently he has none, so that applies to all). An election would be divisive. A certain section of voters like him for reasons which, to me, are obscure. We may lose them.
There are no positives. Everyone knows he's not up to it, but inertia is a strong force.
If it came to a ballot, and I don't think it will, for the above reasons, I reckon he's toast.
So some aircraft have been sent. Interesting.
There are two settings in which Boris can win: (a) Where the 54 letters arrive capriciously without proper organisation and planning to win the +50%. If that happens Boris will win
And (b) Where the 54 letters are sent in an organised way, in the rational belief that the next vote is in the bag, but they are wrong. Tory MPs do something they have never done before and say different things to different audiences; fewer than 50% actually vote against Boris. Mostly because they secretly don't think the successor will be better at keeping their seats for them.
But he's done a Ruth Davidson and remodelled the Tories as the Brexiter Party, a few such as Messrs Hunt and Stewart aside, so I suppose that analysis falls to the ground as redundant ...
The theory of Appeasement was that by giving in to the various border changes/annexations Hitler wanted, the causes of a future war would be removed. So Hitler wouldn't be able to bang that drum again.
The problem was that Hitler was pretty much the only Nazi who was mad keen on a WWII. Everyone else in the Army and the Nazi party wanted a fight/land grab against Poland at some point, but not a general war.
So as part of my mental health rebuild I need to think much more about what I eat, and drink, and calorie burn as I am too fat. So have opted for an "as much plant-based as possible" diet. Its not exclusive as that's too hard for one leap.
But it has meant that I have to think about what I am proposing to eat. Which makes for positive choices which allows better control of fats / carbs / meat.
Also that QC said that the "persuasion" seminars were akin to post-apartheid integration measures in South Africa, lesbians presumably being akin to white supremacists.
It's not just offensive misogynistic rubbish. It's offensive homophobic rubbish.
And now I really am off.
It requires 35%+ of Tory MPs to want the leader changed but take no action to make that happen, when their actions are confidential and only cause an impact if they are sufficient in number.
I would expect the PM to get close to 60%, perhaps even above in a confidence vote. Who wants PM Dorries?
https://twitter.com/CommonsLeader/status/1529391033930420225
This treats sex in an incredibly juvenile manner - that it is some kind of "right" to be "given".
The magic of the thing, as adults know, is the enthusiastic, unexplained and total eagerness of both parties.
Interesting point, which I hadn't realised, that giving Irish equal status is actually bringing NI into line with the rest of the UK, mutatis mutandis.
We are not doing all Ukraine wants. We are holding back and that might mean Ukraine loses more territory. We have to be honest that we in the West are choosing not to do more and that Ukraine will suffer as a result. There no escaping that is true.
Thst is not the same thing as the Scholz's of the world presenting as realists when their and your analysis is that of a 5 year old - being if you cannot win outright why even try. (Though in his case he clearly goes further as hes a Russian shill, which you are not)
Your military knowledge is great. But your pretending to some 'realistic' seer of geopolitics is unpersuasive. Your disparagement of the 'Disney prince' as you've called Zekensky rather gives the game away that you're not being realistic, you're showing off.
I think Ukraine probably will be unable to regain all the territory its lost since February. I think they may face no choice despite heroic effort and western support. Thats realistic/pessimistic. I'm no more a seer than you, but I'm also not some optimistic Ukrainian hype man.
You just keep insisting all losses are equal. Why even fight if thats true?
https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1529314852552187904
https://mobile.twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1529349025916493825
eg ribeye steak used to be a regular dish for me. Twice a week? I love it. But I have discovered I am equally content with it as a rare but delicious treat, once every few weeks, and I really check the origins
Bacon is also now a rarity, likewise lamb, pork, etc. I eat a bit of chicken and some game if I can - it's healthy and a bit kinder to animals - and a LOT of fish and shellfish. I am certainly not veggie
Long bets where you essentially lend your money to the bookmaker at a set odd, while someone else lends the other side at the set odd, means the bookmaker gains from TVM while the winning punter loses from it.
Its worth keeping in mind now for any potential long-odds or "bet void" bets that a void bet 7 months from now is not the same as never placing the bet now.
Complete with the fun stuff for the front end.
Cotton ceiling my arse. I am a bisexual man. Being bisexual doesn't mean that I have to have sex with any man or any woman or any transgender person that I don't want to. A sexuality label does not compel sex with anyone, so wtf is this seminar supposed to do? Compel people to have sex with people they aren't attracted to? This isn't a genitals thing, its a desire thing. And some people are more attractive than others. And besides which as a *married* bisexual man I'd have to sew them back on first if I went off shagging other people...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/25/sue-gray-report-damning-evidence-no-10-lockdown-breaches-boris-johnson
The only thing that stopping the war now, with anything except a clear Russian defeat, will achieve, is to allow the Russian army to reconstitute itself and have another go at Kiev some months or years from now.
You may have got part of HY's massive plank stuck in your eye, hopefully only a splinter you can quickly remove.
If your goals are weight loss and mental wellbeing, you might want to look into a healthy keto diet combined with intermittent fasting. Dyor.
https://kyivindependent.com/opinion/editorial-the-kyiv-independents-response-to-the-new-york-times-editorial-board/
… Ukraine winning the war with Russia isn’t “unrealistic” or even “likely.” If we want the world to be anything like what we know it to be, then Ukraine winning is the only option.
And Western financial and military support for Ukraine is the only way to establish “long-term peace and security on the European continent” that the New York Times editorial board is rooting for.
Ukraine’s belief in its victory isn’t based on overconfidence. It’s based on necessity.
Any concession to Russia now will lead to another war sooner or later, while Ukrainians stuck in any region occupied by Russia will be tortured, raped, or killed. The New York Times is running story after story about the living hell through which Russia puts Ukrainian civilians in occupied territories. Meanwhile, its editorial board is suggesting that Ukraine should cede territories to Russia, where more atrocities will undoubtedly happen.
Appeasement isn’t the voice of reason. It’s fear and short-sightedness that will only make things worse, something we’ve all seen too many times in the past.
Allowing Russia to annex Crimea emboldened Russia to try to swallow the Donbas. When it invaded in 2014, carving up a sovereign state and killing civilians, the other world leaders’ tepid response made Russia’s bloody dictator feel empowered to do more.
It’s obvious that he’s been planning the full-scale invasion of Ukraine ever since. It’s often been said by world leaders and analysts that one of Vladimir Putin’s main miscalculations was assuming that the West would let him take Ukraine easily. It didn’t.
Now the New York Times is calling for the West to do what Putin expected and give up…
Chamberlain gets a bad rap because appeasement didn't work, but he was then prepared to fight and he helped the UK get into a position where we could fight. So he worked on and implemented a Plan B to appeasement. A true appeaser who wasn't involved in rearming the UK would have seen us lose WWII when it inevitably happened.
Some people want to only have his Plan A as the option, even after its already failed. Even Chamberlain wasn't that foolish.
Chamberlain was an example of 'speak softly and carry a big stick' which isn't always the best idea, but its better than not getting the stick.
Two years to the day that Dom did that insane press conference in the Downing Street garden.
https://pollbludger.net/fed2022/Results/
There is no pre-ordained end to this with the baddies losing and the goodies (us and whoever we determine, natch) winning. There is cold, hard, horrible war on the one hand, and realpolitik and pragmatism on the other.
Many on PB berate Germany for not condemning their population to severe economic hardship. Fair enough, people are allowed to berate them thus but also need to understand the calculus of the German decision.
Likewise the horror (to the PB warriors sitting tight in the UK) of contemplating a "negotiated settlement". People go off on one on PB about it but the debate is increasingly moving (on R4 this morning, interviewing Ukrainians, for example; in plenty of other thought pieces also) towards a "land for peace" scenario.
Not for me to say yes or no or which line is drawn where but it is a wholly legitimate discussion to have.
I continue to be bemused by the virulence that many on PB employ to condemn rational discussion of the situation in Ukraine if it doesn't involve stating that Ukraine is unequivocally winning and Russia similarly losing.
9 accompanying photos.
It's hardly War and Peace.
Its very simple. There isn't enough planet to keep feeding our growing population meat. Leon's ribeye steak takes a vast amount of land and water to grow grain to feed the cows to be converted into steak. The more people there are the more land and water you need and there simply isn't enough to go round.
Which forces industrial scale farming and intensive methods which destroy the land quicker which only accelerates the lack of land and water problem. And means that so much mass-produced meat is low quality. So switch a chunk of your diet to plants and the quality of meat can improve and availability can be maintained which means prices won't make it for rich people only.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeon-fails-to-boost-independence-support-during-record-reign-g38lr3l6g
It is now eight years since indyref. In that time we have had endless political turmoil, the epochal shift of Brexit, a global plague, and now a European war, you couldn't ask for more game-changing events which might shift voters. Also, eight years have elapsed, time for all those ancient NO voters to die off, and young YES voters to accede to their inevitable majority, as we were constantly promised
Hasn't happened. If anything NO is rising. And the figures for Who actually wants a referendum are even worse. Only 28% want one in 2023, as Sturgeon is promising her hardcore, and 59% oppose this, and the stats on "in the next five years" show equally divided opinion, which is moving towards "Let's not have one"
The only conclusion is that nothing - black swans aside - is going to shift Scottish public opinion fundamentally towards YES in the short-to-medium term, and therefore that there isn't going to be a vote in that time (no way any SNP leader will call a referendum they are likely to lose, as that kills the party for 30 years)
This has quite serious implications for Scottish politics, and thus UK politics. It is now likely that Sturgeon will retire without ever having called her 2nd vote. That might be the moment when Scottish Labour finally make a revival (yes yes, this has been often predicted without ever happening). At that point, the balance of power down in London shifts, dramatically
As an aside, given the case for independence relies almost entirely on stronger economic growth, I would rank her failure to prioritize this as her greatest strategic error; it was not a mistake Alex Salmond made. Far from the First Minister learning from her mistakes, however, if anything, it’s now getting worse.
One leading Scottish entrepreneur told me yesterday: “Scotland is now basically a no-go area for investment. It’s not so much the referendum because nobody thinks it’ll happen. It’s because of the anti-business agenda here.”
https://eddiebarnes.substack.com/p/it-is-still-the-economy-stupid?s=r
Absolutely bizarre. I think I am going to have to go back to skipping all posts on trans issues as it is all so crazy.
Where is @kinabalu? He is usually a sane voice on all of this and can put it into human for the rest of us to understand.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-merseyside-40668960.amp
After the fact, some people (who very often opposed re-armament at the time) tried to claim that all appeasers = Nazi supporters.
But that is bullshit. Appeasement was about removing the nationalist props holding up a belligerent Germany.
The appeasers believed the moral course was to avoid war by any means. Since the next war would be worse than WWI. Which it was.
The problem was that Hitler wanted war.
But no neither of us is presenting detailed studies on the subject (though that people the world over see violent media and dont have American gun violence even when they have guns is I'd say good circumstantial stuff. Also the fact people did claim mortal kombat was that bad at the time and now you seem to think it is not shows the argument was wrong then and I'd argue is now. And the point about real violence desensitising people is borne out by any warzone).
In which case I am equally able to dismiss what I see as a bullshit argument as someone is to make it, it's not competing academic journals. The original post cited no evidence either did you jump on that? Curious, I guess we aren't allowed to make assertions strongly for some reason?
: “Boris and Nicola are the two politicians who most need each other in the world”
“She needs him to deny the referendum she doesn’t want; and he needs her to demand the referendum he’s going to refuse”
“And in doing so they make all Scottish politics about the referendum”
“The failure in public services is not talked about if the constitution is being talked about”
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1529398445705920518
What a ridiculous mess
https://twitter.com/LouHaigh/status/1529348786799230976/photo/1
Far better to accept people have sexual preferences, some men like men, some women like women, some men like everything, some men like Japanese women, some women like to pretend they are kittens (pet play, real thing, google it), and some men get turned on by pavements
Just let them get on with it, and don't interfere, as long as it all involves consenting adults, and no kids or animals. All else sends you mad
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1529399870028763136
French Caesar howitzers are already at the frontline - 🇺🇦Army Commander Zaluzhnyi
They can hit targets 42 km away with high accuracy, important for targeting 🇷🇺 command points. Macron announced 12 Caesars would go to Ukraine on 22 Apr
The German government’s attitude - or at least that of Scholz and his party - seems to be that Ukraine should be forced to capitulate.