I think the main lesson the West should be taking from Ukraine to deter a future invasion of Taiwan is to arm them to the teeth.
That is one. In addition. How about investing in Taiwanese companies? Visiting the island on holiday? (It's got lovely beaches, and the climate of Florida. With a bit more rain). And a damn sight more history. And gently pointing out that there is only one China, but a serious dispute as to who it is at every and any opportunity.
Taiwan is pretty (mostly). But one must watch for language issues:
And, apparently, vanilla thinks it’s in the southern hemisphere.
“I have served for five years in the army. My contract ends in June. I will serve my remaining time and then I am out of here,” he said. “I have nothing to be ashamed of. We aren’t officially in a state of war, so they could not force me to go.”
Under Russian military rules, troops who refuse to fight in Ukraine can face dismissal but cannot be prosecuted,
Max Keiser (afaict from his 100mph stream of consciousness) still believes. This is the cleansing fire that will get rid of the grifters and conmen seems to be his take.
I don't know what the f**k the Treasury are smoking talking about "legislate to allow the use of stablecoins as a form of payment". The state should not be going anywhere near Ponzicoins except to warn people of the danger of them.
There are a few different types of stablecoins.
* 1) Trusted-party backed by dollars in a bank: None currently exist * 2) Trusted-party backed by actual assets: (probably) USDC * 3) Trusted-party backed by assets that probably don't exist: USDT * 4) Algorithmic with more than 100% external collateral: DAI, RAI * 5) Algorithmic with less than 100% external collateral: UST and many others, every single one of which has failed in the same totally predictable way
They should leave (4) alone. These designs do seem to actually work, but if they turn out not to they're still in the "legitimate experimentation" space.
They could ban (5) but I don't suppose that would stop the brainiacs who keep buying them from buying them, and if they didn't lose money in those they'd lose their money in a different kind of ponzi scheme. I'm not sure they could draft legislation to do this without either gaping loopholes or accidentally banning a load of stuff they don't intend.
The space for regulation is 1 - 3, which are already operating inside the regulated banking system. The people behind Tether should be in jail, USDC could probably be more transparent, and governments might consider making (1) themselves if they care more about stopping people getting robbed than using the banking system for generalized law enforcement.
The Gulf producers cannot easily add millions of barrels a day to production. Most of them are at - or around - capacity already.
They might be able to find an extra million barrels between them but that's about it.
This CNN story gives a higher number:
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates The two countries have the lion's share of OPEC's spare capacity that is readily available, said Amena Bakr, chief OPEC correspondent at Energy Intelligence, at roughly 2.5 million bpd. But OPEC's largest producer Saudi Arabia has repeatedly dismissed US requests to increase production beyond a long- standing quota agreed with Russia and other non-OPEC producers, and is unlikely to heed European calls to raise output.
I don't claim to be qualified to judge among the competing estimates, but I would say that much would depend on how far ahead one is looking. The answer, I assume, would be quite different if you were looking 30 days ahead, or 1 year. And I think we should be preparing for the possibility that this war will last at least a year.
The Gulf producers cannot easily add millions of barrels a day to production. Most of them are at - or around - capacity already.
They might be able to find an extra million barrels between them but that's about it.
This CNN story gives a higher number:
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates The two countries have the lion's share of OPEC's spare capacity that is readily available, said Amena Bakr, chief OPEC correspondent at Energy Intelligence, at roughly 2.5 million bpd. But OPEC's largest producer Saudi Arabia has repeatedly dismissed US requests to increase production beyond a long- standing quota agreed with Russia and other non-OPEC producers, and is unlikely to heed European calls to raise output.
I don't claim to be qualified to judge among the competing estimates, but I would say that much would depend on how far ahead one is looking. The answer, I assume, would be quite different if you were looking 30 days ahead, or 1 year. And I think we should be preparing for the possibility that this war will last at least a year.
So... in the short to medium term, the way Saudi would increase production would be by injecting more water into the wells. However... that's not costless, and might negatively effect ultimate recovery rates. I think they would be very wary of doing so.
If you are happy to take a longer term view, then there are some sour crudes in Saudi that could (and will be) developed. But that's not going to happen for years.
The ultimate problem for oil production is this: no-one believes that the oil price is going to remain at current levels for ever, and therefore (outside of short payback production like tight oil in the US) there is limited desire to spend money on production that only comes on stream when oil is $40/barrel.
New scapegoats ready for the public beating are civil servants with Johnson wanting to axe 91,000 jobs .
Savings will allegedly go into helping with the cost of living crisis . More pandering to the angry mob !
You can’t just fire people overnight so this is the latest pile of nonsense to dupe the plebs .
Savings will go towards paying the usual consultancy firms to do whatever it is the civil servants are currently doing.
I'm fairly sure you there are 90k civil servants you could fire where hardly anyone would miss them (eg Public Health England, or whatever its called this week - spent the last twenty years whinging about kids eating McDonalds, then was slightly less effective than a chocolate fireguard when an actual pandemic came along). The trouble is that the civil service will ensure that it's not those ones who get the chop, but instead a selection of key frontline roles which will demonstrate how vital they all are.
The only possible tactic for success I can see would be to have a systematic and brutal review of each area of the civil service with a view to the total abolition of parts of it, but somehow you have to avoid the civil service taking control of the reviewing process. That might just have been possible as a Dom/Gove project had Covid not happened; for all his faults Dom could spot civil service waste from space, but the civil service will run rings round the current bunch of halfwits.
To be fair to PHE, it's not their fault that the media panicked the government into binning the pandemic strategy they had created.
It would be a big mistake for the EU to let Ukraine in in its present state. It's a worthwhile ambition, but as a tactical move it would be terrible.
Ukraine was one of the most corrupt countries on Earth before the war and now it's barely a functioning state and economic black hole on top of that. So, on paper, Macron is right; they are decades away from meeting the requirements from EU membership.
However, as the Motoring Barnard Castle Optician recently observed, Zelensky has a P.T. Barnum like ability to exploit emotional spasms. So some sort of semi-detached status (with a shared driveway) might be possible for them. As long as Zelensky doesn't get wasted by the GRU.
It would be a big mistake for the EU to let Ukraine in in its present state. It's a worthwhile ambition, but as a tactical move it would be terrible.
Ukraine was one of the most corrupt countries on Earth before the war and now it's barely a functioning state and economic black hole on top of that. So, on paper, Macron is right; they are decades away from meeting the requirements from EU membership.
However, as the Motoring Barnard Castle Optician recently observed, Zelensky has a P.T. Barnum like ability to exploit emotional spasms. So some sort of semi-detached status (with a shared driveway) might be possible for them. As long as Zelensky doesn't get wasted by the GRU.
'Decades' is a load of crap. They had started rapid reform before the war. Zelensky isn't just smoke and mirrors as you imply, and the process is likely to continue with or without him.
It would be a big mistake for the EU to let Ukraine in in its present state. It's a worthwhile ambition, but as a tactical move it would be terrible.
Ukraine was one of the most corrupt countries on Earth before the war and now it's barely a functioning state and economic black hole on top of that. So, on paper, Macron is right; they are decades away from meeting the requirements from EU membership...
And how long did it take the rest of the former Eastern European Soviet colonies - which weren't even democracies when they escaped the Russian sphere ? 'Decades' is just Macron being Macron.
It would be a big mistake for the EU to let Ukraine in in its present state. It's a worthwhile ambition, but as a tactical move it would be terrible.
Ukraine was one of the most corrupt countries on Earth before the war and now it's barely a functioning state and economic black hole on top of that. So, on paper, Macron is right; they are decades away from meeting the requirements from EU membership.
However, as the Motoring Barnard Castle Optician recently observed, Zelensky has a P.T. Barnum like ability to exploit emotional spasms. So some sort of semi-detached status (with a shared driveway) might be possible for them. As long as Zelensky doesn't get wasted by the GRU.
'Decades' is a load of crap. They had started rapid reform before the war. Zelensky isn't just smoke and mirrors as you imply, and the process is likely to continue with or without him.
Grim thought, but I wonder if in Vlad world Zelenskyy being assassinated would be seen as some kind of compensatory victory after a pretty obvious clusterfcuk. Insofar as anyone has a clue about what goes on in Putin's mind I can imagine a lot of personal antipathy there, and he doesn't seem the type not to give in to his baser urges.
Apparently calling someone a 'baldy' amounts to sexual harassment - just as well there are no prominent members of the PB fraternity who are follicularly challenged enough to merit such abuse.....
It would be a big mistake for the EU to let Ukraine in in its present state. It's a worthwhile ambition, but as a tactical move it would be terrible.
Ukraine was one of the most corrupt countries on Earth before the war and now it's barely a functioning state and economic black hole on top of that. So, on paper, Macron is right; they are decades away from meeting the requirements from EU membership.
However, as the Motoring Barnard Castle Optician recently observed, Zelensky has a P.T. Barnum like ability to exploit emotional spasms. So some sort of semi-detached status (with a shared driveway) might be possible for them. As long as Zelensky doesn't get wasted by the GRU.
'Decades' is a load of crap. They had started rapid reform before the war. Zelensky isn't just smoke and mirrors as you imply, and the process is likely to continue with or without him.
Comments
Under Russian military rules, troops who refuse to fight in Ukraine can face dismissal but cannot be prosecuted,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/12/they-were-furious-the-russian-soldiers-refusing-to-fight-in-ukraine?CMP=share_btn_tw
* 1) Trusted-party backed by dollars in a bank: None currently exist
* 2) Trusted-party backed by actual assets: (probably) USDC
* 3) Trusted-party backed by assets that probably don't exist: USDT
* 4) Algorithmic with more than 100% external collateral: DAI, RAI
* 5) Algorithmic with less than 100% external collateral: UST and many others, every single one of which has failed in the same totally predictable way
They should leave (4) alone. These designs do seem to actually work, but if they turn out not to they're still in the "legitimate experimentation" space.
They could ban (5) but I don't suppose that would stop the brainiacs who keep buying them from buying them, and if they didn't lose money in those they'd lose their money in a different kind of ponzi scheme. I'm not sure they could draft legislation to do this without either gaping loopholes or accidentally banning a load of stuff they don't intend.
The space for regulation is 1 - 3, which are already operating inside the regulated banking system. The people behind Tether should be in jail, USDC could probably be more transparent, and governments might consider making (1) themselves if they care more about stopping people getting robbed than using the banking system for generalized law enforcement.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61428970
Just rejoice at that news.
I don't claim to be qualified to judge among the competing estimates, but I would say that much would depend on how far ahead one is looking. The answer, I assume, would be quite different if you were looking 30 days ahead, or 1 year. And I think we should be preparing for the possibility that this war will last at least a year.
I have a soft spot for trifle as my mother didn't like it, so I only got that forbidden treat at other childrens parties.
I don't claim to be qualified to judge among the competing estimates, but I would say that much would depend on how far ahead one is looking. The answer, I assume, would be quite different if you were looking 30 days ahead, or 1 year. And I think we should be preparing for the possibility that this war will last at least a year.
So... in the short to medium term, the way Saudi would increase production would be by injecting more water into the wells. However... that's not costless, and might negatively effect ultimate recovery rates. I think they would be very wary of doing so.
If you are happy to take a longer term view, then there are some sour crudes in Saudi that could (and will be) developed. But that's not going to happen for years.
The ultimate problem for oil production is this: no-one believes that the oil price is going to remain at current levels for ever, and therefore (outside of short payback production like tight oil in the US) there is limited desire to spend money on production that only comes on stream when oil is $40/barrel.
However, as the Motoring Barnard Castle Optician recently observed, Zelensky has a P.T. Barnum like ability to exploit emotional spasms. So some sort of semi-detached status (with a shared driveway) might be possible for them. As long as Zelensky doesn't get wasted by the GRU.
His bankers demand a safety margin; the lower the Tesla share price, the harder it becomes for him.
Though in my case as my mum made a knockout sherry trifle with proper egg custard and lots of sherry soaked biscuits, on special occasions.
They had started rapid reform before the war.
Zelensky isn't just smoke and mirrors as you imply, and the process is likely to continue with or without him.
GRU bit is right, though.
Putin sidelines FSB over intelligence failures in Ukraine
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/putin-sidelines-fsb-over-intelligence-failings-in-ukraine-nw0d7zh25
Defiant U.S. Senator Rand Paul stymies effort to pass $40 billion Ukraine aid bill
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/defiant-us-senator-rand-paul-stymies-effort-pass-40-billion-ukraine-aid-bill-2022-05-12/
'Decades' is just Macron being Macron.