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Putting two fingers up to Biden on Ulster is a big gamble – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 15 in General
imagePutting two fingers up to Biden on Ulster is a big gamble – politicalbetting.com

One thing that I don’t think Johnson and team don’t fully appreciate is the big role Joe Biden and other US politicians played in the Anglo-Iriish agreement in the late 1990s which just about stopped decades of the “troubles” in Ireland. It all might seem a long time ago.

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Comments

  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,424
    edited May 12
    Biden thinks he's Irish and would be categorically opposed to whatever we did wrt Ireland anyway.

    Though it's interesting as soon as they criticise us, the US magically becomes "our closest ally"...!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,168
    Yes, and we must also note the Americans speak to Dublin, who might have a different view on the robustness of the Good Friday Agreement.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 44,700
    @dyedwoolie commented on the last thread about frying eggs. And - hear me out - doing it properly is a lot more complicated than it looks.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,168
    Applicant said:

    Biden thinks he's Irish and would be categorically opposed to whatever we did wrt Ireland anyway.

    Though it's interesting as soon as they criticise us, the US magically becomes "our closest ally"...!

    That's been kicking around since the war. See also: special relationship; five eyes; cooperation in Ukraine and so on.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,155
    rcs1000 said:

    @dyedwoolie commented on the last thread about frying eggs. And - hear me out - doing it properly is a lot more complicated than it looks.

    Tomorrow lunch = fried egg and artisanal black pudding slice roll ...
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    Not that big of a gamble.

    Biden knows Britain is a close ally with regards to what's happening with Ukraine/Russia and plenty of other things too. He may say the right formulation of words in public to say he's respecting Ireland, but he's not actually going to do anything about it.

    Similarly with the EU. Are Eastern European and even Scandinavian nations going to vote for a trade war with Britain over Ireland right when they're relying upon us to defend them? Yeah, I don't think so.

    In completely unrelated news, first funny Daily Mash article I've seen in years: https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/arts-entertainment/large-swathes-of-history-off-limits-to-new-doctor-who-20220510220840
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 38,596
    UK's ground launched Brimstone for Ukraine.
    The use of what looks a bit like a flatbed Transit as a launch platform is... interesting.

    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524778779364696066
    Finally, we can take a look at the ground launching platform for Brimstone missiles - it was developed by Britain in a very short time especially for the Ukrainian army. The missiles are already used on the front line, however the event we see is likely to be training.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,748
    The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ·
    43m
    ⚡️Media: Russia may cut off gas supply to Finland on May 13.

    Key Finnish politicians have been warned that Russia may cut off the gas supply to Finland on May 13 due to the country’s potential accession to NATO, Finland’s media outlet Iltalehti reports citing anonymous sources.

    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1524772908991660033
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,168
    rcs1000 said:

    @dyedwoolie commented on the last thread about frying eggs. And - hear me out - doing it properly is a lot more complicated than it looks.

    Everything you need to know about cooking is on Youtube. Just type fried eggs into the search bar and send off your Masterchef application.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,963
    I have no inside info on what the EU is thinking, but I can't help feeling that the UK government's threat to impose even more economic damage on ourselves at a time of a massive cost-of-living crisis and a possible looming recession might not be entirely convincing - especially since they can impose retaliatory tariffs on UK goods with no big downside for themselves, but we'd be adding to already very damaging inflation if we did so.

    Of course, this whole brouhaha might just be Liz Truss responding to Priti Patel's successful climb up the ConHome ratings by spending £120 million of our money to get a press release about Rwanda.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 40,636
    Ulster also includes counties Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558

    Not that big of a gamble.

    Biden knows Britain is a close ally with regards to what's happening with Ukraine/Russia and plenty of other things too. He may say the right formulation of words in public to say he's respecting Ireland, but he's not actually going to do anything about it.

    Similarly with the EU. Are Eastern European and even Scandinavian nations going to vote for a trade war with Britain over Ireland right when they're relying upon us to defend them? Yeah, I don't think so.

    In completely unrelated news, first funny Daily Mash article I've seen in years: https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/arts-entertainment/large-swathes-of-history-off-limits-to-new-doctor-who-20220510220840

    Is UK military support for eastern European and Scandinavian states contingent on the EU not imposing economic sanctions on us if we violate international law, then?

    What actually matters to them, of course, is US support.

  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,424

    Applicant said:

    Biden thinks he's Irish and would be categorically opposed to whatever we did wrt Ireland anyway.

    Though it's interesting as soon as they criticise us, the US magically becomes "our closest ally"...!

    That's been kicking around since the war. See also: special relationship; five eyes; cooperation in Ukraine and so on.
    Since 2016, Eurofederalist Lib Dems have been saying it about the EU...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,963

    I think the EU would be mistaken to assume that more US attention automatically means more pressure on the UK's position. The US cares more about political stability (including security in Europe as a whole) than about the minutiae of a single market that Brussels sees as a weapon to wield against US corporations.

    The US couldn't care a toss about the Single Market, but it does care a lot about what the Irish think.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,136

    I think the EU would be mistaken to assume that more US attention automatically means more pressure on the UK's position. The US cares more about political stability (including security in Europe as a whole) than about the minutiae of a single market that Brussels sees as a weapon to wield against US corporations.

    The US couldn't care a toss about the Single Market, but it does care a lot about what the Irish think.
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-corporate-tax-regime-faces-new-threat-from-biden-budget-proposals-1.4840183

    Ireland’s corporate tax regime could face a new threat from the latest budget proposals published in the US by president Joe Biden.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955
    rcs1000 said:

    @dyedwoolie commented on the last thread about frying eggs. And - hear me out - doing it properly is a lot more complicated than it looks.

    If mum hadn't died in October 2020 I'd swear it was you.
    Tbf her eggs were freaking awesome
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,155
    Nigelb said:

    UK's ground launched Brimstone for Ukraine.
    The use of what looks a bit like a flatbed Transit as a launch platform is... interesting.

    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524778779364696066
    Finally, we can take a look at the ground launching platform for Brimstone missiles - it was developed by Britain in a very short time especially for the Ukrainian army. The missiles are already used on the front line, however the event we see is likely to be training.

    PIRA did it yonks ago. Not guided, though.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,963

    I think the EU would be mistaken to assume that more US attention automatically means more pressure on the UK's position. The US cares more about political stability (including security in Europe as a whole) than about the minutiae of a single market that Brussels sees as a weapon to wield against US corporations.

    The US couldn't care a toss about the Single Market, but it does care a lot about what the Irish think.
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-corporate-tax-regime-faces-new-threat-from-biden-budget-proposals-1.4840183

    Ireland’s corporate tax regime could face a new threat from the latest budget proposals published in the US by president Joe Biden.
    That's business. Different matter altogether.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530

    Not that big of a gamble.

    Biden knows Britain is a close ally with regards to what's happening with Ukraine/Russia and plenty of other things too. He may say the right formulation of words in public to say he's respecting Ireland, but he's not actually going to do anything about it.

    Similarly with the EU. Are Eastern European and even Scandinavian nations going to vote for a trade war with Britain over Ireland right when they're relying upon us to defend them? Yeah, I don't think so.

    In completely unrelated news, first funny Daily Mash article I've seen in years: https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/arts-entertainment/large-swathes-of-history-off-limits-to-new-doctor-who-20220510220840

    Is UK military support for eastern European and Scandinavian states contingent on the EU not imposing economic sanctions on us if we violate international law, then?

    What actually matters to them, of course, is US support.

    Indeed and US support likes to have UK support, so its a virtuous circle.

    UK military support is about alliances of friendly nations and eastern and Scandinavian nations can see who their allies are - and who they are not.

    Germany and France haven't exactly won friends this year with the way they've behaved and the UK has. Ireland is not a nation you turn to when the chips are down and you need support - the UK is.

    There is not going to be a trade war. There will be some huffing and puffing and bluff will be called, but that will be it and we will move on.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955
    edited May 12
    Does anyone take Biden seriously anymore? He's an international joke that makes Boris look good.
    Heaven forbid they release pisshead Pelosi on us
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,170
    Once you overlook the political slants, one true thing which remains is this: No-one really believes that separating out NI from GB in terms of trade agreements and relationships (ie the border being in the Irish Sea), removing the integrity of the UK single market, is really within the spirit of the GFA; just as imposing a border within the island wouldn't be either.

    For myself I support a united Ireland, and as soon as possible. But others don't. What is missing in the debate, whether from the EU, DUP, Labour, LDs, the USA or the RoI is: what, with detail, is the plan which would work, be democratic, and respect the Brexit vote and the GFA? What do you want. They are not telling us, while blaming Boris.

    If there isn't something coherent they want, there is little point in blaming Boris, who is left hold a Rubiks cube with no solution.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,312
    edited May 12
    Do A16 provisions still apply after a successful border poll? They are, after all, a solution tied to the GFA and aiui GFA continues to apply for the benefit of Protestants after any Irish unification.

    Perhaps RoI might find themselves put in charge of A16 implementation (and it's end state) at some point in the future if the British insist on trade standoff.

    As they did for Brexit, could the DUP be shooting themselves in the other foot now?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,576
    FPT:

    Spreadable butter is butter that is warm enough to spread.

    (Rancid butter is butter that has been warm enough to spread for a fortnight.)

    Last year I bought a butter dish from an artisan ceramic maker at the "Art in the Pen" event in Skipton. Never looked back.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    algarkirk said:

    Once you overlook the political slants, one true thing which remains is this: No-one really believes that separating out NI from GB in terms of trade agreements and relationships (ie the border being in the Irish Sea), removing the integrity of the UK single market, is really within the spirit of the GFA; just as imposing a border within the island wouldn't be either.

    For myself I support a united Ireland, and as soon as possible. But others don't. What is missing in the debate, whether from the EU, DUP, Labour, LDs, the USA or the RoI is: what, with detail, is the plan which would work, be democratic, and respect the Brexit vote and the GFA? What do you want. They are not telling us, while blaming Boris.

    If there isn't something coherent they want, there is little point in blaming Boris, who is left hold a Rubiks cube with no solution.

    There is a simple solution. Tell the EU to go stuff their "integrity of the Single Market" and sort out the problem themselves.

    If they want to check things on the Irish border they can, they won't, so that's it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,806
    edited May 12
    Nigelb said:

    UK's ground launched Brimstone for Ukraine.
    The use of what looks a bit like a flatbed Transit as a launch platform is... interesting.

    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524778779364696066
    Finally, we can take a look at the ground launching platform for Brimstone missiles - it was developed by Britain in a very short time especially for the Ukrainian army. The missiles are already used on the front line, however the event we see is likely to be training.

    Brimstone designed with ground launch as a possible usage - rather like Hellfire. It was tested from a ground launcher something like 20 years back, IIRC. Though that may have been just for developmental purposes.

    Shades of Exocet, a searchlight generator and a German engineer....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650
    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,971

    Does anyone take Biden seriously anymore? He's an international joke that makes Boris look good.
    Heaven forbid they release pisshead Pelosi on us

    The one big plus is that he isn't Trump. That's enough for me.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533

    Ulster also includes counties Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan!

    Yes, it's not clear to me why this is even used as a synonym. Why not just say Northern Ireland? Do we need a synonym for the name of a country?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,136

    I think the EU would be mistaken to assume that more US attention automatically means more pressure on the UK's position. The US cares more about political stability (including security in Europe as a whole) than about the minutiae of a single market that Brussels sees as a weapon to wield against US corporations.

    The US couldn't care a toss about the Single Market, but it does care a lot about what the Irish think.
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-corporate-tax-regime-faces-new-threat-from-biden-budget-proposals-1.4840183

    Ireland’s corporate tax regime could face a new threat from the latest budget proposals published in the US by president Joe Biden.
    That's business. Different matter altogether.
    If the ultimate solution for Northern Ireland involves some kind of additional checks on goods movements between Ireland and the rest of the EU, what would the US have against it?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,027

    I think the EU would be mistaken to assume that more US attention automatically means more pressure on the UK's position. The US cares more about political stability (including security in Europe as a whole) than about the minutiae of a single market that Brussels sees as a weapon to wield against US corporations.

    The US couldn't care a toss about the Single Market, but it does care a lot about what the Irish think.
    Not understanding why people might care what the Irish think is where a lot of English/British pols have problems. Centuries have been invested in that lack of comprehension.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,424

    Ulster also includes counties Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan!

    Yes, it's not clear to me why this is even used as a synonym. Why not just say Northern Ireland? Do we need a synonym for the name of a country?
    Shorthand, much the same reason that "Britain" is often used as a synonym for "the United Kingdom".
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558

    Not that big of a gamble.

    Biden knows Britain is a close ally with regards to what's happening with Ukraine/Russia and plenty of other things too. He may say the right formulation of words in public to say he's respecting Ireland, but he's not actually going to do anything about it.

    Similarly with the EU. Are Eastern European and even Scandinavian nations going to vote for a trade war with Britain over Ireland right when they're relying upon us to defend them? Yeah, I don't think so.

    In completely unrelated news, first funny Daily Mash article I've seen in years: https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/arts-entertainment/large-swathes-of-history-off-limits-to-new-doctor-who-20220510220840

    Is UK military support for eastern European and Scandinavian states contingent on the EU not imposing economic sanctions on us if we violate international law, then?

    What actually matters to them, of course, is US support.

    Indeed and US support likes to have UK support, so its a virtuous circle.

    UK military support is about alliances of friendly nations and eastern and Scandinavian nations can see who their allies are - and who they are not.

    Germany and France haven't exactly won friends this year with the way they've behaved and the UK has. Ireland is not a nation you turn to when the chips are down and you need support - the UK is.

    There is not going to be a trade war. There will be some huffing and puffing and bluff will be called, but that will be it and we will move on.

    A country which makes its support contingent on agreement that it can break international law is not going to be seen as a friendly country for very long. It is certainly not going to be a country that can be trusted.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955
    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    Biden thought he used to drive a big truck the other day. If we are really naughty he might get that creepy whisper thing he does out
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 543

    Gardenwalker - Meet Calvin Trillin: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calvin_Trillin

    Trillin has written three books on finding good food in America: American Fried; Alice, Let's Eat; and Third Helpings. (I have the first two, and have enjoyed them greatly, over the years.) Trillin argues that there is wonderful food in America, and that you can find it in many cities if you ignore the Chamber of Commerce suggestions that you visit the imitation French restaurant called something like "La Maison de la Casa House". Instead you should look for the best local specialties; in, for example, Muskogee, Oklahoma, he was able to find wonderful barbecue.

    Times have changed since he was traveling in America, but I think that his general advice still holds. Of course there are large cosmopolitan cities where one could find then, and no doubt can find now, great restaurants of almost any kind. He once explained that he and his wife chose to live in New York, because they are "big eaters", who enjoyed the incredible variety of restaurants there.

    As for food tastes generally, Trillin once observed that food packages were being shipped all over the United States to people who missed some food from their childhood. And, years ago, there was a small store in the home of Microsoft, Redmond, which was selling British specialties, most of them foods to, I imagine, Brits working for Microsoft who missed them.

    https://www.thebritishpantryltd.com/

    Still there. Pub, restaurant, bakery and shop. Third generation running it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650

    I think the EU would be mistaken to assume that more US attention automatically means more pressure on the UK's position. The US cares more about political stability (including security in Europe as a whole) than about the minutiae of a single market that Brussels sees as a weapon to wield against US corporations.

    The US couldn't care a toss about the Single Market, but it does care a lot about what the Irish think.
    That's not true, Congress just voted through a huge package of tax reforms which are directly aimed at fucking Ireland over. Everything else is just talk.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530

    I think the EU would be mistaken to assume that more US attention automatically means more pressure on the UK's position. The US cares more about political stability (including security in Europe as a whole) than about the minutiae of a single market that Brussels sees as a weapon to wield against US corporations.

    The US couldn't care a toss about the Single Market, but it does care a lot about what the Irish think.
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-corporate-tax-regime-faces-new-threat-from-biden-budget-proposals-1.4840183

    Ireland’s corporate tax regime could face a new threat from the latest budget proposals published in the US by president Joe Biden.
    That's business. Different matter altogether.
    And ensuring that the UK is kept as a close ally during the conflict in Ukraine is business to.

    There is no threat to peace from not checking goods between GB and NI. There is a threat to peace in doing so.

    The only threat is to the "integrity of the Single Market" and Biden couldn't care less about that.

    Or since he's American, he could care less about that.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,963
    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,963

    I think the EU would be mistaken to assume that more US attention automatically means more pressure on the UK's position. The US cares more about political stability (including security in Europe as a whole) than about the minutiae of a single market that Brussels sees as a weapon to wield against US corporations.

    The US couldn't care a toss about the Single Market, but it does care a lot about what the Irish think.
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-corporate-tax-regime-faces-new-threat-from-biden-budget-proposals-1.4840183

    Ireland’s corporate tax regime could face a new threat from the latest budget proposals published in the US by president Joe Biden.
    That's business. Different matter altogether.
    If the ultimate solution for Northern Ireland involves some kind of additional checks on goods movements between Ireland and the rest of the EU, what would the US have against it?
    They wouldn't have anything against it, if the EU, Ireland and Sinn Fein are happy with it.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,312
    algarkirk said:

    Once you overlook the political slants, one true thing which remains is this: No-one really believes that separating out NI from GB in terms of trade agreements and relationships (ie the border being in the Irish Sea), removing the integrity of the UK single market, is really within the spirit of the GFA; just as imposing a border within the island wouldn't be either.

    For myself I support a united Ireland, and as soon as possible. But others don't. What is missing in the debate, whether from the EU, DUP, Labour, LDs, the USA or the RoI is: what, with detail, is the plan which would work, be democratic, and respect the Brexit vote and the GFA? What do you want. They are not telling us, while blaming Boris.

    If there isn't something coherent they want, there is little point in blaming Boris, who is left hold a Rubiks cube with no solution.

    Boris claimed he had solved the Rubik's cube by putting it in the oven and charring it until all the stickers were black.

    Oven ready deal.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,168

    Ulster also includes counties Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan!

    Yes, it's not clear to me why this is even used as a synonym. Why not just say Northern Ireland? Do we need a synonym for the name of a country?
    Ask the Ulster Unionists? Things are complicated enough without getting bogged down in this.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558

    I have no inside info on what the EU is thinking, but I can't help feeling that the UK government's threat to impose even more economic damage on ourselves at a time of a massive cost-of-living crisis and a possible looming recession might not be entirely convincing - especially since they can impose retaliatory tariffs on UK goods with no big downside for themselves, but we'd be adding to already very damaging inflation if we did so.

    Of course, this whole brouhaha might just be Liz Truss responding to Priti Patel's successful climb up the ConHome ratings by spending £120 million of our money to get a press release about Rwanda.

    Yes, this is very clearly about internal party politics rather than the national interest. Voters who are already less than convinced as the benefits of Brexit and who now largely regard Boris Johnson as a dishonest charlatan may be reluctant to reward him for exacerbating an already serious cost-of-living squeeze.

  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530

    Not that big of a gamble.

    Biden knows Britain is a close ally with regards to what's happening with Ukraine/Russia and plenty of other things too. He may say the right formulation of words in public to say he's respecting Ireland, but he's not actually going to do anything about it.

    Similarly with the EU. Are Eastern European and even Scandinavian nations going to vote for a trade war with Britain over Ireland right when they're relying upon us to defend them? Yeah, I don't think so.

    In completely unrelated news, first funny Daily Mash article I've seen in years: https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/arts-entertainment/large-swathes-of-history-off-limits-to-new-doctor-who-20220510220840

    Is UK military support for eastern European and Scandinavian states contingent on the EU not imposing economic sanctions on us if we violate international law, then?

    What actually matters to them, of course, is US support.

    Indeed and US support likes to have UK support, so its a virtuous circle.

    UK military support is about alliances of friendly nations and eastern and Scandinavian nations can see who their allies are - and who they are not.

    Germany and France haven't exactly won friends this year with the way they've behaved and the UK has. Ireland is not a nation you turn to when the chips are down and you need support - the UK is.

    There is not going to be a trade war. There will be some huffing and puffing and bluff will be called, but that will be it and we will move on.

    A country which makes its support contingent on agreement that it can break international law is not going to be seen as a friendly country for very long. It is certainly not going to be a country that can be trusted.

    If we invoke Article 16 that's not breaking international law, it is quite literally a part of International Law.

    Scene: EU/UK Article 50 Negotiations 2019

    We are worried about the Northern Ireland situation, we think this agreement could cause problems.
    We are worried too, but this agreement is the best solution available.
    Not sure we can sign this due to the risk of problems.
    If you don't sign this, then we can not have any agreement at all.
    How about a safeguarding clause? The deal gets implemented but if the problems we are worried about come to pass, then we can take appropriate safeguarding measures.
    If you can take safeguarding measures, then we will need the ability to do the same.
    That is reasonable.
    *Article 16 is added to the Protocol*
    OK with the safeguarding article in the Protocol we are happy with this agreement.
    So are we.
    *Deal is signed*

    Scene: Present
    Those problems we were worried about are coming to pass, we may need to implement the safeguarding Article that was put in the Protocol in case this happened.

    FBPE style Twitter etc: WHAT!? HOW DARE YOU!? YOU'RE BREAKING THE LAW!? DID YOU NOT FORESEE THESE PROBLEMS WHEN YOU SIGNED THE AGREEMENT?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 40,636

    Ulster also includes counties Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan!

    Yes, it's not clear to me why this is even used as a synonym. Why not just say Northern Ireland? Do we need a synonym for the name of a country?
    Ask the Ulster Unionists? Things are complicated enough without getting bogged down in this.
    Ulster consists of 9 counties. NI consists of 6.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Bollocks, the USA will do whatever is in the USA's interest, just as it did with the tax reforms.

    Besides if the UK voids the Protocol, as we are legally entitled to do based upon the Protocol's own safeguarding article, what is the USA going to care about that years later once the bluff has revealed that doing so was no threat to GFA?

    Once the EU's bluff is called and no checks are done on the border of Ireland, why would America care about that at all?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,465
    Applicant said:

    Biden thinks he's Irish and would be categorically opposed to whatever we did wrt Ireland anyway.

    Though it's interesting as soon as they criticise us, the US magically becomes "our closest ally"...!

    He doesn't "think he is Irish". He is American (in case you haven't noticed) with a strong Irish lineage. And, yes, like it or no, the US is our closest ally, particularly since we seem to delight in pissing off our nearest neighbours
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558

    Not that big of a gamble.

    Biden knows Britain is a close ally with regards to what's happening with Ukraine/Russia and plenty of other things too. He may say the right formulation of words in public to say he's respecting Ireland, but he's not actually going to do anything about it.

    Similarly with the EU. Are Eastern European and even Scandinavian nations going to vote for a trade war with Britain over Ireland right when they're relying upon us to defend them? Yeah, I don't think so.

    In completely unrelated news, first funny Daily Mash article I've seen in years: https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/arts-entertainment/large-swathes-of-history-off-limits-to-new-doctor-who-20220510220840

    Is UK military support for eastern European and Scandinavian states contingent on the EU not imposing economic sanctions on us if we violate international law, then?

    What actually matters to them, of course, is US support.

    Indeed and US support likes to have UK support, so its a virtuous circle.

    UK military support is about alliances of friendly nations and eastern and Scandinavian nations can see who their allies are - and who they are not.

    Germany and France haven't exactly won friends this year with the way they've behaved and the UK has. Ireland is not a nation you turn to when the chips are down and you need support - the UK is.

    There is not going to be a trade war. There will be some huffing and puffing and bluff will be called, but that will be it and we will move on.

    A country which makes its support contingent on agreement that it can break international law is not going to be seen as a friendly country for very long. It is certainly not going to be a country that can be trusted.

    If we invoke Article 16 that's not breaking international law, it is quite literally a part of International Law.

    Scene: EU/UK Article 50 Negotiations 2019

    We are worried about the Northern Ireland situation, we think this agreement could cause problems.
    We are worried too, but this agreement is the best solution available.
    Not sure we can sign this due to the risk of problems.
    If you don't sign this, then we can not have any agreement at all.
    How about a safeguarding clause? The deal gets implemented but if the problems we are worried about come to pass, then we can take appropriate safeguarding measures.
    If you can take safeguarding measures, then we will need the ability to do the same.
    That is reasonable.
    *Article 16 is added to the Protocol*
    OK with the safeguarding article in the Protocol we are happy with this agreement.
    So are we.
    *Deal is signed*

    Scene: Present
    Those problems we were worried about are coming to pass, we may need to implement the safeguarding Article that was put in the Protocol in case this happened.

    FBPE style Twitter etc: WHAT!? HOW DARE YOU!? YOU'RE BREAKING THE LAW!? DID YOU NOT FORESEE THESE PROBLEMS WHEN YOU SIGNED THE AGREEMENT?


    No-one is talking about invoking Article 16 anymore. They are talking about legislating to override the Protocol.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,168

    Ulster also includes counties Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan!

    Yes, it's not clear to me why this is even used as a synonym. Why not just say Northern Ireland? Do we need a synonym for the name of a country?
    Ask the Ulster Unionists? Things are complicated enough without getting bogged down in this.
    Ulster consists of 9 counties. NI consists of 6.
    Yes, we get that, but there are different meanings of "Ulster".
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,963

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Bollocks, the USA will do whatever is in the USA's interest, just as it did with the tax reforms.

    Besides if the UK voids the Protocol, as we are legally entitled to do based upon the Protocol's own safeguarding article, what is the USA going to care about that years later once the bluff has revealed that doing so was no threat to GFA?

    Once the EU's bluff is called and no checks are done on the border of Ireland, why would America care about that at all?
    Your statement in the second paragraph about international law is, how shall I put this politely, not whole-heartedly endorsed by anyone who actually knows anything at all about the subject.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Not really, the UK and US are still hugely allied and huge trading partners, it will make precisely zero difference to that picture.

    You're oddly buying into the weird pretence the Irish have that Biden and other presidents were Irish more than they were American. He isn't and they weren't. America's interests will always come first and the US-UK relationship is of significantly higher strategic value and US-Ireland or US-EU. The Ukraine conflict and everything that has followed has won us a lot of friends in Washington and made the EU a lot of enemies.

    No one in Washington will give two fucks about this while British weapons and intelligence resources are pouring into Ukraine to fend off the Russians. The timing of this is brilliant because the EU is very weak politically and the UK isn't.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 43,917
    Stocky said:

    Does anyone take Biden seriously anymore? He's an international joke that makes Boris look good.
    Heaven forbid they release pisshead Pelosi on us

    The one big plus is that he isn't Trump. That's enough for me.
    Until he proves to be so useless, you get Trump back.

    I wouldn't ever wish that on the US.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Bollocks, the USA will do whatever is in the USA's interest, just as it did with the tax reforms.

    Besides if the UK voids the Protocol, as we are legally entitled to do based upon the Protocol's own safeguarding article, what is the USA going to care about that years later once the bluff has revealed that doing so was no threat to GFA?

    Once the EU's bluff is called and no checks are done on the border of Ireland, why would America care about that at all?

    The EU is far more important to the US's interests than the UK.

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,465
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Not really, the UK and US are still hugely allied and huge trading partners, it will make precisely zero difference to that picture.

    You're oddly buying into the weird pretence the Irish have that Biden and other presidents were Irish more than they were American. He isn't and they weren't. America's interests will always come first and the US-UK relationship is of significantly higher strategic value and US-Ireland or US-EU. The Ukraine conflict and everything that has followed has won us a lot of friends in Washington and made the EU a lot of enemies.

    No one in Washington will give two fucks about this while British weapons and intelligence resources are pouring into Ukraine to fend off the Russians. The timing of this is brilliant because the EU is very weak politically and the UK isn't.
    Ah, the old, "we hold all the cards" argument.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955
    China announces it will 'strictly limit' overseas travel......
    Somethings gonna go off, probably Taiwan..
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Bollocks, the USA will do whatever is in the USA's interest, just as it did with the tax reforms.

    Besides if the UK voids the Protocol, as we are legally entitled to do based upon the Protocol's own safeguarding article, what is the USA going to care about that years later once the bluff has revealed that doing so was no threat to GFA?

    Once the EU's bluff is called and no checks are done on the border of Ireland, why would America care about that at all?
    Your statement in the second paragraph about international law is, how shall I put this politely, not whole-heartedly endorsed by anyone who actually knows anything at all about the subject.
    Does anyone who actually knows anything at all about the subject and isn't a raving fanatic who hates Brexit saying that its against the law to invoke Article 16 of the Protocol, considering that is literally part and parcel of the Protocol and the law?

    Though I'll take the Attorney General's word for it that other solutions are legal too. If the AG is wrong, lets see it debated in court if need be, which court would have jurisdiction over that?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 40,636

    Ulster also includes counties Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan!

    Yes, it's not clear to me why this is even used as a synonym. Why not just say Northern Ireland? Do we need a synonym for the name of a country?
    Ask the Ulster Unionists? Things are complicated enough without getting bogged down in this.
    Ulster consists of 9 counties. NI consists of 6.
    Yes, we get that, but there are different meanings of "Ulster".
    The most accurate is that covering Antrim, Armagh, Cavan, Derry, Donegal, Down, Fermanagh, Monaghan and Tyrone.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Bollocks, the USA will do whatever is in the USA's interest, just as it did with the tax reforms.

    Besides if the UK voids the Protocol, as we are legally entitled to do based upon the Protocol's own safeguarding article, what is the USA going to care about that years later once the bluff has revealed that doing so was no threat to GFA?

    Once the EU's bluff is called and no checks are done on the border of Ireland, why would America care about that at all?

    The EU is far more important to the US's interests than the UK.

    Hmm, that's not really true though is it. The UK is far more important to the US because we have wholly aligned interests, the EU keeps banging on about "strategic autonomy". Do you think that hasn't gone unnoticed in DC?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,312

    I think the EU would be mistaken to assume that more US attention automatically means more pressure on the UK's position. The US cares more about political stability (including security in Europe as a whole) than about the minutiae of a single market that Brussels sees as a weapon to wield against US corporations.

    The US couldn't care a toss about the Single Market, but it does care a lot about what the Irish think.
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-corporate-tax-regime-faces-new-threat-from-biden-budget-proposals-1.4840183

    Ireland’s corporate tax regime could face a new threat from the latest budget proposals published in the US by president Joe Biden.
    That's business. Different matter altogether.
    If the ultimate solution for Northern Ireland involves some kind of additional checks on goods movements between Ireland and the rest of the EU, what would the US have against it?
    To habe three rather different thoughts in 10 minutes, I have long held that some manner of Campione d'Italia / Canary Island solution for RoI is one way to square the circle.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Not really, the UK and US are still hugely allied and huge trading partners, it will make precisely zero difference to that picture.

    You're oddly buying into the weird pretence the Irish have that Biden and other presidents were Irish more than they were American. He isn't and they weren't. America's interests will always come first and the US-UK relationship is of significantly higher strategic value and US-Ireland or US-EU. The Ukraine conflict and everything that has followed has won us a lot of friends in Washington and made the EU a lot of enemies.

    No one in Washington will give two fucks about this while British weapons and intelligence resources are pouring into Ukraine to fend off the Russians. The timing of this is brilliant because the EU is very weak politically and the UK isn't.
    Ah, the old, "we hold all the cards" argument.
    We always did.

    Theresa May folded them, at the encouragement of Philip Hammond etc. Thank goodness they're all gone.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,465

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Bollocks, the USA will do whatever is in the USA's interest, just as it did with the tax reforms.

    Besides if the UK voids the Protocol, as we are legally entitled to do based upon the Protocol's own safeguarding article, what is the USA going to care about that years later once the bluff has revealed that doing so was no threat to GFA?

    Once the EU's bluff is called and no checks are done on the border of Ireland, why would America care about that at all?
    Your statement in the second paragraph about international law is, how shall I put this politely, not whole-heartedly endorsed by anyone who actually knows anything at all about the subject.
    Oh, come off it, if Bart only comment on subjects he knows about he will never be able to touch the keyboard. What an ineffective keyboard warrior he would become.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,155
    Pro_Rata said:

    I think the EU would be mistaken to assume that more US attention automatically means more pressure on the UK's position. The US cares more about political stability (including security in Europe as a whole) than about the minutiae of a single market that Brussels sees as a weapon to wield against US corporations.

    The US couldn't care a toss about the Single Market, but it does care a lot about what the Irish think.
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-corporate-tax-regime-faces-new-threat-from-biden-budget-proposals-1.4840183

    Ireland’s corporate tax regime could face a new threat from the latest budget proposals published in the US by president Joe Biden.
    That's business. Different matter altogether.
    If the ultimate solution for Northern Ireland involves some kind of additional checks on goods movements between Ireland and the rest of the EU, what would the US have against it?
    To habe three rather different thoughts in 10 minutes, I have long held that some manner of Campione d'Italia / Canary Island solution for RoI is one way to square the circle.
    Don't you mean a solution for rUK?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,963
    edited May 12
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Not really, the UK and US are still hugely allied and huge trading partners, it will make precisely zero difference to that picture.

    You're oddly buying into the weird pretence the Irish have that Biden and other presidents were Irish more than they were American. He isn't and they weren't. America's interests will always come first and the US-UK relationship is of significantly higher strategic value and US-Ireland or US-EU. The Ukraine conflict and everything that has followed has won us a lot of friends in Washington and made the EU a lot of enemies.

    No one in Washington will give two fucks about this while British weapons and intelligence resources are pouring into Ukraine to fend off the Russians. The timing of this is brilliant because the EU is very weak politically and the UK isn't.
    Err, no. The US-UK relationship is hugely less important than the US-EU relationship, for hugely obvious reasons.

    Ukraine is irrelevant, unless the UK government is so utterly bat-shit crazy and immoral that it's really going to put a ludicrous attempt to renege on a deal it not only signed, but specifically asked for, above the lives of Ukrainians and our own security. Not a credible threat, is it?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,508
    edited May 12

    algarkirk said:

    Once you overlook the political slants, one true thing which remains is this: No-one really believes that separating out NI from GB in terms of trade agreements and relationships (ie the border being in the Irish Sea), removing the integrity of the UK single market, is really within the spirit of the GFA; just as imposing a border within the island wouldn't be either.

    For myself I support a united Ireland, and as soon as possible. But others don't. What is missing in the debate, whether from the EU, DUP, Labour, LDs, the USA or the RoI is: what, with detail, is the plan which would work, be democratic, and respect the Brexit vote and the GFA? What do you want. They are not telling us, while blaming Boris.

    If there isn't something coherent they want, there is little point in blaming Boris, who is left hold a Rubiks cube with no solution.

    There is a simple solution. Tell the EU to go stuff their "integrity of the Single Market" and sort out the problem themselves.

    If they want to check things on the Irish border they can, they won't, so that's it.
    As you were saying five years ago. Not too long before Boris then instituted a border cutting off one part of the UK from another.

    Like he had wanted to do all along because he was jealous of all those other European countries.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Bollocks, the USA will do whatever is in the USA's interest, just as it did with the tax reforms.

    Besides if the UK voids the Protocol, as we are legally entitled to do based upon the Protocol's own safeguarding article, what is the USA going to care about that years later once the bluff has revealed that doing so was no threat to GFA?

    Once the EU's bluff is called and no checks are done on the border of Ireland, why would America care about that at all?

    The EU is far more important to the US's interests than the UK.

    😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

    The EU isn't even more important to the EU's own member states in the East right now than the UK is, let alone the USA. 😂😂😂
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 16,175
    I don't fully understand the issues with the current checks and the looming increased checks. But I don't think that the Government would be taking this step, and daring to be disapproved of by the Americans, if it was in any way avoidable.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Not really, the UK and US are still hugely allied and huge trading partners, it will make precisely zero difference to that picture.

    You're oddly buying into the weird pretence the Irish have that Biden and other presidents were Irish more than they were American. He isn't and they weren't. America's interests will always come first and the US-UK relationship is of significantly higher strategic value and US-Ireland or US-EU. The Ukraine conflict and everything that has followed has won us a lot of friends in Washington and made the EU a lot of enemies.

    No one in Washington will give two fucks about this while British weapons and intelligence resources are pouring into Ukraine to fend off the Russians. The timing of this is brilliant because the EU is very weak politically and the UK isn't.
    Ah, the old, "we hold all the cards" argument.
    Where did I say that, all I'm saying is that the timing is good because there's a lot of European countries and the US who think not pissing us off at the moment is a good idea.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Not really, the UK and US are still hugely allied and huge trading partners, it will make precisely zero difference to that picture.

    You're oddly buying into the weird pretence the Irish have that Biden and other presidents were Irish more than they were American. He isn't and they weren't. America's interests will always come first and the US-UK relationship is of significantly higher strategic value and US-Ireland or US-EU. The Ukraine conflict and everything that has followed has won us a lot of friends in Washington and made the EU a lot of enemies.

    No one in Washington will give two fucks about this while British weapons and intelligence resources are pouring into Ukraine to fend off the Russians. The timing of this is brilliant because the EU is very weak politically and the UK isn't.
    Err, no. The US-UK relationship is hugely less important than the US-EU relationship, for hugely obvious reasons.

    Ukraine is irrelevant, unless the UK government is so utterly bat-shit crazy and immoral that it's really going to put a ludicrous attempt to renege on a deal it not only signed but specifically asked for above the lives of Ukrainians and our own security. Not a credible threat, is it?

    Yep, the idea that the UK will walk away from the US if the US does not do as we wish is beyond absurd. We have absolutely nowhere to go.

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,465

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Not really, the UK and US are still hugely allied and huge trading partners, it will make precisely zero difference to that picture.

    You're oddly buying into the weird pretence the Irish have that Biden and other presidents were Irish more than they were American. He isn't and they weren't. America's interests will always come first and the US-UK relationship is of significantly higher strategic value and US-Ireland or US-EU. The Ukraine conflict and everything that has followed has won us a lot of friends in Washington and made the EU a lot of enemies.

    No one in Washington will give two fucks about this while British weapons and intelligence resources are pouring into Ukraine to fend off the Russians. The timing of this is brilliant because the EU is very weak politically and the UK isn't.
    Ah, the old, "we hold all the cards" argument.
    We always did.

    Theresa May folded them, at the encouragement of Philip Hammond etc. Thank goodness they're all gone.
    Bart, when people already know you are a gullible nationalist fool, there really is no reason to tap on your keyboard and confirm the matter.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Not really, the UK and US are still hugely allied and huge trading partners, it will make precisely zero difference to that picture.

    You're oddly buying into the weird pretence the Irish have that Biden and other presidents were Irish more than they were American. He isn't and they weren't. America's interests will always come first and the US-UK relationship is of significantly higher strategic value and US-Ireland or US-EU. The Ukraine conflict and everything that has followed has won us a lot of friends in Washington and made the EU a lot of enemies.

    No one in Washington will give two fucks about this while British weapons and intelligence resources are pouring into Ukraine to fend off the Russians. The timing of this is brilliant because the EU is very weak politically and the UK isn't.
    Err, no. The US-UK relationship is hugely less important than the US-EU relationship, for hugely obvious reasons.

    Ukraine is irrelevant, unless the UK government is so utterly bat-shit crazy and immoral that it's really going to put a ludicrous attempt to renege on a deal it not only signed, but specifically asked for, above the lives of Ukrainians and our own security. Not a credible threat, is it?
    Name those reasons, since they're so obvious.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    TOPPING said:

    algarkirk said:

    Once you overlook the political slants, one true thing which remains is this: No-one really believes that separating out NI from GB in terms of trade agreements and relationships (ie the border being in the Irish Sea), removing the integrity of the UK single market, is really within the spirit of the GFA; just as imposing a border within the island wouldn't be either.

    For myself I support a united Ireland, and as soon as possible. But others don't. What is missing in the debate, whether from the EU, DUP, Labour, LDs, the USA or the RoI is: what, with detail, is the plan which would work, be democratic, and respect the Brexit vote and the GFA? What do you want. They are not telling us, while blaming Boris.

    If there isn't something coherent they want, there is little point in blaming Boris, who is left hold a Rubiks cube with no solution.

    There is a simple solution. Tell the EU to go stuff their "integrity of the Single Market" and sort out the problem themselves.

    If they want to check things on the Irish border they can, they won't, so that's it.
    As you were saying five years ago. Not too long before Boris then instituted a border cutting off one part of the UK from another.

    Like he had wanted to do all along because he was jealous of all those other European countries.
    Indeed, I was right five years ago and am still right today. Looks like my view is going to be put to the test.

    Boris instituted a border cutting off one part of the UK from another because it was an infinitely superior solution to the backstop and the Remain-Parliament we had wouldn't pass any alternative and wouldn't allow us to exit the EU without a deal.

    We have a different Parliament now though, so its time to revisit the NI solution.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 6,236

    Applicant said:

    Biden thinks he's Irish and would be categorically opposed to whatever we did wrt Ireland anyway.

    Though it's interesting as soon as they criticise us, the US magically becomes "our closest ally"...!

    He doesn't "think he is Irish". He is American (in case you haven't noticed) with a strong Irish lineage. And, yes, like it or no, the US is our closest ally, particularly since we seem to delight in pissing off our nearest neighbours
    The Americans set great store by lineage. And they desperately want to be Irish, and want you to be Irish. I remember staying in a bed and breakfast in Boston, the proprietor of which, making conversation, claimed to be Scottish. Oh, whereabouts are you from, I asked, making conversation, assuming I'd have a geographical connection pretty much wherever. "St. Louis, Missouri", he said. "But my great grandfather was from Inverness", he added, seeing my confusion.
    He deemed us Irish, on the grounds we had changed planes in Dublin and that my girlfriend possibly had some Irish ancestry, and introduced us as such to the other guests, causing much less confusion than you might think.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Bollocks, the USA will do whatever is in the USA's interest, just as it did with the tax reforms.

    Besides if the UK voids the Protocol, as we are legally entitled to do based upon the Protocol's own safeguarding article, what is the USA going to care about that years later once the bluff has revealed that doing so was no threat to GFA?

    Once the EU's bluff is called and no checks are done on the border of Ireland, why would America care about that at all?

    The EU is far more important to the US's interests than the UK.

    😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

    The EU isn't even more important to the EU's own member states in the East right now than the UK is, let alone the USA. 😂😂😂

    Just because the Daily Express tells you that, Bart, doesn't make it true. No EU member state is going to choose the UK over the EU. The US is not going to choose the UK over the EU. Why would they?

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,963

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Bollocks, the USA will do whatever is in the USA's interest, just as it did with the tax reforms.

    Besides if the UK voids the Protocol, as we are legally entitled to do based upon the Protocol's own safeguarding article, what is the USA going to care about that years later once the bluff has revealed that doing so was no threat to GFA?

    Once the EU's bluff is called and no checks are done on the border of Ireland, why would America care about that at all?
    Your statement in the second paragraph about international law is, how shall I put this politely, not whole-heartedly endorsed by anyone who actually knows anything at all about the subject.
    Does anyone who actually knows anything at all about the subject and isn't a raving fanatic who hates Brexit saying that its against the law to invoke Article 16 of the Protocol, considering that is literally part and parcel of the Protocol and the law?

    Though I'll take the Attorney General's word for it that other solutions are legal too. If the AG is wrong, lets see it debated in court if need be, which court would have jurisdiction over that?
    We could, for sufficient reason (which we don't currently have) invoke Article 16 for the specific purposes it covers, which do not include reneging on the deal.

    The relevant court, if it came to it, is the ECJ.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 44,700

    China announces it will 'strictly limit' overseas travel......
    Somethings gonna go off, probably Taiwan..

    I think Russia's experience in Ukraine has significantly reduced the likelihood of a near-term Taiwan invasion. Simply: the damage a dug in defender can do is absolutely enormous. And Taiwan has a much, much stronger military than Ukraine, with modern US and French jet fighters - plus it's got the massive advantage of a 150 mile ocean that the Chinese would need to cross.

    Oh yeah... and don't forget that most of China's military (with the exception of a very small number of modern fighters) is Russian tech.

    I suspect that this is Covid related.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 5,661
    algarkirk said:

    Once you overlook the political slants, one true thing which remains is this: No-one really believes that separating out NI from GB in terms of trade agreements and relationships (ie the border being in the Irish Sea), removing the integrity of the UK single market, is really within the spirit of the GFA; just as imposing a border within the island wouldn't be either.

    For myself I support a united Ireland, and as soon as possible. But others don't. What is missing in the debate, whether from the EU, DUP, Labour, LDs, the USA or the RoI is: what, with detail, is the plan which would work, be democratic, and respect the Brexit vote and the GFA? What do you want. They are not telling us, while blaming Boris.

    If there isn't something coherent they want, there is little point in blaming Boris, who is left hold a Rubiks cube with no solution.

    There's every point in blaming someone who a) campaigned for Vote Rubik's Cube in 2016, and laughed off claims that it would be jolly difficult to solve and b) ripped the cube out of someone else's hands saying her solution was rubbish.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Bollocks, the USA will do whatever is in the USA's interest, just as it did with the tax reforms.

    Besides if the UK voids the Protocol, as we are legally entitled to do based upon the Protocol's own safeguarding article, what is the USA going to care about that years later once the bluff has revealed that doing so was no threat to GFA?

    Once the EU's bluff is called and no checks are done on the border of Ireland, why would America care about that at all?

    The EU is far more important to the US's interests than the UK.

    😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

    The EU isn't even more important to the EU's own member states in the East right now than the UK is, let alone the USA. 😂😂😂

    Just because the Daily Express tells you that, Bart, doesn't make it true. No EU member state is going to choose the UK over the EU. The US is not going to choose the UK over the EU. Why would they?

    The point people are trying to make is that the US will choose the US. You and some others seem to be living in some odd universe where the US will put the objectives of the EU ahead of their own. That clearly isn't the case.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,508

    TOPPING said:

    algarkirk said:

    Once you overlook the political slants, one true thing which remains is this: No-one really believes that separating out NI from GB in terms of trade agreements and relationships (ie the border being in the Irish Sea), removing the integrity of the UK single market, is really within the spirit of the GFA; just as imposing a border within the island wouldn't be either.

    For myself I support a united Ireland, and as soon as possible. But others don't. What is missing in the debate, whether from the EU, DUP, Labour, LDs, the USA or the RoI is: what, with detail, is the plan which would work, be democratic, and respect the Brexit vote and the GFA? What do you want. They are not telling us, while blaming Boris.

    If there isn't something coherent they want, there is little point in blaming Boris, who is left hold a Rubiks cube with no solution.

    There is a simple solution. Tell the EU to go stuff their "integrity of the Single Market" and sort out the problem themselves.

    If they want to check things on the Irish border they can, they won't, so that's it.
    As you were saying five years ago. Not too long before Boris then instituted a border cutting off one part of the UK from another.

    Like he had wanted to do all along because he was jealous of all those other European countries.
    Indeed, I was right five years ago and am still right today. Looks like my view is going to be put to the test.

    Boris instituted a border cutting off one part of the UK from another because it was an infinitely superior solution to the backstop and the Remain-Parliament we had wouldn't pass any alternative and wouldn't allow us to exit the EU without a deal.

    We have a different Parliament now though, so its time to revisit the NI solution.
    You were wrong five years ago because you said almost word for word what you said a few minutes ago - that the UK would "tell the EU to go stuff their "integrity of the Single Market" and sort out the problem themselves."

    Which they - the UK govt - precisely and absolutely did not do. They are now saying again that they might do it. So you might be proven right. But I very much doubt it. You will be proven wrong. Again.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 2,424

    Applicant said:

    Biden thinks he's Irish and would be categorically opposed to whatever we did wrt Ireland anyway.

    Though it's interesting as soon as they criticise us, the US magically becomes "our closest ally"...!

    He doesn't "think he is Irish". He is American (in case you haven't noticed) with a strong Irish lineage. And, yes, like it or no, the US is our closest ally, particularly since we seem to delight in pissing off our nearest neighbours
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/joebiden/video-2437429/Video-Im-Irish-Biden-dismisses-BBC-question-unearthed-video.html

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/18/joe-biden-may-irish-not-stupid/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 44,700
    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    From a timing perspective, I think this is smart from the UK. Right now, the US really cares about Ukraine, and we're a key part of that. If the Ukraine war was over, Putin deposed, and oil & gas prices low... then his priorities might be different.

    With that said, the UK has a very fine tightrope to walk here. A16 needs to be used only to ensure that the EU fulfils its treaty obligations regarding the trusted trader program - it should not be used because Boris didn't think through the consequence of signing a treaty.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Bollocks, the USA will do whatever is in the USA's interest, just as it did with the tax reforms.

    Besides if the UK voids the Protocol, as we are legally entitled to do based upon the Protocol's own safeguarding article, what is the USA going to care about that years later once the bluff has revealed that doing so was no threat to GFA?

    Once the EU's bluff is called and no checks are done on the border of Ireland, why would America care about that at all?

    The EU is far more important to the US's interests than the UK.

    😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

    The EU isn't even more important to the EU's own member states in the East right now than the UK is, let alone the USA. 😂😂😂

    Just because the Daily Express tells you that, Bart, doesn't make it true. No EU member state is going to choose the UK over the EU. The US is not going to choose the UK over the EU. Why would they?

    The US is going to choose the UK over the EU because we are actually a useful ally that does stuff like send weapons, and because the UK isn't asking the US to do anything other than stay out of the dispute and not do anything.

    EU member states don't need to choose the UK over the EU either, since they are a part of the EU and have votes, we just need them to veto any threatened retaliation. You really think the EU will unanimously get agreement to retaliate over Ireland at this present time? Good luck with that . . .
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Bollocks, the USA will do whatever is in the USA's interest, just as it did with the tax reforms.

    Besides if the UK voids the Protocol, as we are legally entitled to do based upon the Protocol's own safeguarding article, what is the USA going to care about that years later once the bluff has revealed that doing so was no threat to GFA?

    Once the EU's bluff is called and no checks are done on the border of Ireland, why would America care about that at all?

    The EU is far more important to the US's interests than the UK.

    Hmm, that's not really true though is it. The UK is far more important to the US because we have wholly aligned interests, the EU keeps banging on about "strategic autonomy". Do you think that hasn't gone unnoticed in DC?

    Well, indeed - the US knows that the UK has forfeited any ability to have "strategic autonomy" and so the US can pretty much do what it likes with us. With the EU, which is far bigger, there is always going to be more of a negotiation.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,963
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Not really, the UK and US are still hugely allied and huge trading partners, it will make precisely zero difference to that picture.

    You're oddly buying into the weird pretence the Irish have that Biden and other presidents were Irish more than they were American. He isn't and they weren't. America's interests will always come first and the US-UK relationship is of significantly higher strategic value and US-Ireland or US-EU. The Ukraine conflict and everything that has followed has won us a lot of friends in Washington and made the EU a lot of enemies.

    No one in Washington will give two fucks about this while British weapons and intelligence resources are pouring into Ukraine to fend off the Russians. The timing of this is brilliant because the EU is very weak politically and the UK isn't.
    Err, no. The US-UK relationship is hugely less important than the US-EU relationship, for hugely obvious reasons.

    Ukraine is irrelevant, unless the UK government is so utterly bat-shit crazy and immoral that it's really going to put a ludicrous attempt to renege on a deal it not only signed, but specifically asked for, above the lives of Ukrainians and our own security. Not a credible threat, is it?
    Name those reasons, since they're so obvious.
    444.7 million compared with 67 million
    $17.1 trillion compared with $2.7 trillion
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    algarkirk said:

    Once you overlook the political slants, one true thing which remains is this: No-one really believes that separating out NI from GB in terms of trade agreements and relationships (ie the border being in the Irish Sea), removing the integrity of the UK single market, is really within the spirit of the GFA; just as imposing a border within the island wouldn't be either.

    For myself I support a united Ireland, and as soon as possible. But others don't. What is missing in the debate, whether from the EU, DUP, Labour, LDs, the USA or the RoI is: what, with detail, is the plan which would work, be democratic, and respect the Brexit vote and the GFA? What do you want. They are not telling us, while blaming Boris.

    If there isn't something coherent they want, there is little point in blaming Boris, who is left hold a Rubiks cube with no solution.

    There is a simple solution. Tell the EU to go stuff their "integrity of the Single Market" and sort out the problem themselves.

    If they want to check things on the Irish border they can, they won't, so that's it.
    As you were saying five years ago. Not too long before Boris then instituted a border cutting off one part of the UK from another.

    Like he had wanted to do all along because he was jealous of all those other European countries.
    Indeed, I was right five years ago and am still right today. Looks like my view is going to be put to the test.

    Boris instituted a border cutting off one part of the UK from another because it was an infinitely superior solution to the backstop and the Remain-Parliament we had wouldn't pass any alternative and wouldn't allow us to exit the EU without a deal.

    We have a different Parliament now though, so its time to revisit the NI solution.
    You were wrong five years ago because you said almost word for word what you said a few minutes ago - that the UK would "tell the EU to go stuff their "integrity of the Single Market" and sort out the problem themselves."

    Which they - the UK govt - precisely and absolutely did not do. They are now saying again that they might do it. So you might be proven right. But I very much doubt it. You will be proven wrong. Again.
    As far as I know I never said they would, I said they should.

    Sadly Hammond and the rest of the EU's useful idiots in the 2017-19 Parliament prevented that from happening. Those idiots have gone now.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 10,465
    Cookie said:

    Applicant said:

    Biden thinks he's Irish and would be categorically opposed to whatever we did wrt Ireland anyway.

    Though it's interesting as soon as they criticise us, the US magically becomes "our closest ally"...!

    He doesn't "think he is Irish". He is American (in case you haven't noticed) with a strong Irish lineage. And, yes, like it or no, the US is our closest ally, particularly since we seem to delight in pissing off our nearest neighbours
    The Americans set great store by lineage. And they desperately want to be Irish, and want you to be Irish. I remember staying in a bed and breakfast in Boston, the proprietor of which, making conversation, claimed to be Scottish. Oh, whereabouts are you from, I asked, making conversation, assuming I'd have a geographical connection pretty much wherever. "St. Louis, Missouri", he said. "But my great grandfather was from Inverness", he added, seeing my confusion.
    He deemed us Irish, on the grounds we had changed planes in Dublin and that my girlfriend possibly had some Irish ancestry, and introduced us as such to the other guests, causing much less confusion than you might think.
    Well yes indeed, of course. If I were American I would consider myself Irish. I once had a conversation with an American who asked me if I was Irish, and I replied that on my mother's side I was. He said he thought so, and said that I had a face that was friendly but not one to be crossed. I sort of took it as a compliment, though wasn't quite whether he was trying to tell me he thought I was an ugly fecker
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,521

    The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ·
    43m
    ⚡️Media: Russia may cut off gas supply to Finland on May 13.

    Key Finnish politicians have been warned that Russia may cut off the gas supply to Finland on May 13 due to the country’s potential accession to NATO, Finland’s media outlet Iltalehti reports citing anonymous sources.

    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1524772908991660033

    I can totally see what Russian means about how they are the victims here.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,136

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Bollocks, the USA will do whatever is in the USA's interest, just as it did with the tax reforms.

    Besides if the UK voids the Protocol, as we are legally entitled to do based upon the Protocol's own safeguarding article, what is the USA going to care about that years later once the bluff has revealed that doing so was no threat to GFA?

    Once the EU's bluff is called and no checks are done on the border of Ireland, why would America care about that at all?

    The EU is far more important to the US's interests than the UK.

    Hmm, that's not really true though is it. The UK is far more important to the US because we have wholly aligned interests, the EU keeps banging on about "strategic autonomy". Do you think that hasn't gone unnoticed in DC?

    Well, indeed - the US knows that the UK has forfeited any ability to have "strategic autonomy" and so the US can pretty much do what it likes with us. With the EU, which is far bigger, there is always going to be more of a negotiation.
    Ukraine has thrown the conventional wisdom about strategic autonomy out of the window so this is outdated thinking.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    From a timing perspective, I think this is smart from the UK. Right now, the US really cares about Ukraine, and we're a key part of that. If the Ukraine war was over, Putin deposed, and oil & gas prices low... then his priorities might be different.

    With that said, the UK has a very fine tightrope to walk here. A16 needs to be used only to ensure that the EU fulfils its treaty obligations regarding the trusted trader program - it should not be used because Boris didn't think through the consequence of signing a treaty.
    Indeed, a very fine tight rope. If the EU implements the scheme as outlined by both sides the problems all go away and everyone shuts up about the protocol. That's the issue, the EU has dragged its feet on this from the beginning.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Bollocks, the USA will do whatever is in the USA's interest, just as it did with the tax reforms.

    Besides if the UK voids the Protocol, as we are legally entitled to do based upon the Protocol's own safeguarding article, what is the USA going to care about that years later once the bluff has revealed that doing so was no threat to GFA?

    Once the EU's bluff is called and no checks are done on the border of Ireland, why would America care about that at all?

    The EU is far more important to the US's interests than the UK.

    😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

    The EU isn't even more important to the EU's own member states in the East right now than the UK is, let alone the USA. 😂😂😂

    Just because the Daily Express tells you that, Bart, doesn't make it true. No EU member state is going to choose the UK over the EU. The US is not going to choose the UK over the EU. Why would they?

    The US is going to choose the UK over the EU because we are actually a useful ally that does stuff like send weapons, and because the UK isn't asking the US to do anything other than stay out of the dispute and not do anything.

    EU member states don't need to choose the UK over the EU either, since they are a part of the EU and have votes, we just need them to veto any threatened retaliation. You really think the EU will unanimously get agreement to retaliate over Ireland at this present time? Good luck with that . . .

    The US does not need to choose. The UK has nowhere else to go. We are not going to pull out of NATO. We are not going to leave the Five Eyes. We might stop supplying symbolic military support to some Eastern European nations, but symbols are just that.

  • boulayboulay Posts: 984
    Pro_Rata said:

    I think the EU would be mistaken to assume that more US attention automatically means more pressure on the UK's position. The US cares more about political stability (including security in Europe as a whole) than about the minutiae of a single market that Brussels sees as a weapon to wield against US corporations.

    The US couldn't care a toss about the Single Market, but it does care a lot about what the Irish think.
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-corporate-tax-regime-faces-new-threat-from-biden-budget-proposals-1.4840183

    Ireland’s corporate tax regime could face a new threat from the latest budget proposals published in the US by president Joe Biden.
    That's business. Different matter altogether.
    If the ultimate solution for Northern Ireland involves some kind of additional checks on goods movements between Ireland and the rest of the EU, what would the US have against it?
    To habe three rather different thoughts in 10 minutes, I have long held that some manner of Campione d'Italia / Canary Island solution for RoI is one way to square the circle.
    Or turn it into a Crown Dependency as a fudge where the ultimate foreign affairs is in the control of the UK but can set its own rules and make side agreements with EU “outside” if the rUK framework as crown dependencies did when UK was in EU.

    They just need to come up with something where everyone thinks they have a win - UK NI is still part of UK, NI unionists - still part of UK, NI Nationalists - not really part of UK, RoI - thank feck they aren’t part of us but also decoupled from rUK, EU - it’s not really UK so we can have side deals.

    Everyone’s a winner, treble Jamesons all round.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,508
    rcs1000 said:

    it should not be used because Boris didn't think through the consequence of signing a treaty.

    That ship sailed out of Larne many moons ago.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,170
    edited May 12
    Pro_Rata said:

    algarkirk said:

    Once you overlook the political slants, one true thing which remains is this: No-one really believes that separating out NI from GB in terms of trade agreements and relationships (ie the border being in the Irish Sea), removing the integrity of the UK single market, is really within the spirit of the GFA; just as imposing a border within the island wouldn't be either.

    For myself I support a united Ireland, and as soon as possible. But others don't. What is missing in the debate, whether from the EU, DUP, Labour, LDs, the USA or the RoI is: what, with detail, is the plan which would work, be democratic, and respect the Brexit vote and the GFA? What do you want. They are not telling us, while blaming Boris.

    If there isn't something coherent they want, there is little point in blaming Boris, who is left hold a Rubiks cube with no solution.

    Boris claimed he had solved the Rubik's cube by putting it in the oven and charring it until all the stickers were black.

    Oven ready deal.
    This is true, but doesn't address the question as it is now and doesn't provide a solution. That's what politics is like. Yes Boris is part of the problem. So what?

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650
    edited May 12

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Not really, the UK and US are still hugely allied and huge trading partners, it will make precisely zero difference to that picture.

    You're oddly buying into the weird pretence the Irish have that Biden and other presidents were Irish more than they were American. He isn't and they weren't. America's interests will always come first and the US-UK relationship is of significantly higher strategic value and US-Ireland or US-EU. The Ukraine conflict and everything that has followed has won us a lot of friends in Washington and made the EU a lot of enemies.

    No one in Washington will give two fucks about this while British weapons and intelligence resources are pouring into Ukraine to fend off the Russians. The timing of this is brilliant because the EU is very weak politically and the UK isn't.
    Err, no. The US-UK relationship is hugely less important than the US-EU relationship, for hugely obvious reasons.

    Ukraine is irrelevant, unless the UK government is so utterly bat-shit crazy and immoral that it's really going to put a ludicrous attempt to renege on a deal it not only signed, but specifically asked for, above the lives of Ukrainians and our own security. Not a credible threat, is it?
    Name those reasons, since they're so obvious.
    444.7 million compared with 67 million
    $17.1 trillion compared with $2.7 trillion
    That's not an answer though is it, it's an interesting, but ultimately meaningless fact.

    Also it's $16.2tn vs $3.2tn
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 16,175
    I think it was right to accept that the border into the single market fell between Northern Ireland and RUK, assuming that both sides were committed to making that a frictionless border. It seems though that on the EU side, they are making every effort to make that border a very difficult one. It seems fair then to see if the EU is as determined to protect the purity of their market when they must apply those controls to the Ireland/NI border.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 8,018

    I don't fully understand the issues with the current checks and the looming increased checks. But I don't think that the Government would be taking this step, and daring to be disapproved of by the Americans, if it was in any way avoidable.

    The government is picking a fight with the EU for the same reason it always does it - to play to its base and distract from its failings. It is also trying to dig itself out of the mess it created when Johnson stabbed the DUP in the back and signed up to something he had told them he wouldn't. The idea that the national interest plays any part in the government's thinking is charmingly naive. Have you been living under a rock?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,170

    algarkirk said:

    Once you overlook the political slants, one true thing which remains is this: No-one really believes that separating out NI from GB in terms of trade agreements and relationships (ie the border being in the Irish Sea), removing the integrity of the UK single market, is really within the spirit of the GFA; just as imposing a border within the island wouldn't be either.

    For myself I support a united Ireland, and as soon as possible. But others don't. What is missing in the debate, whether from the EU, DUP, Labour, LDs, the USA or the RoI is: what, with detail, is the plan which would work, be democratic, and respect the Brexit vote and the GFA? What do you want. They are not telling us, while blaming Boris.

    If there isn't something coherent they want, there is little point in blaming Boris, who is left hold a Rubiks cube with no solution.

    There's every point in blaming someone who a) campaigned for Vote Rubik's Cube in 2016, and laughed off claims that it would be jolly difficult to solve and b) ripped the cube out of someone else's hands saying her solution was rubbish.
    Point taken to that extent. But what is the solution all parties are happy with he is now avoiding? Yes, Boris is part of the problem. But I am unclear what solution the other parties want.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,650

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Bollocks, the USA will do whatever is in the USA's interest, just as it did with the tax reforms.

    Besides if the UK voids the Protocol, as we are legally entitled to do based upon the Protocol's own safeguarding article, what is the USA going to care about that years later once the bluff has revealed that doing so was no threat to GFA?

    Once the EU's bluff is called and no checks are done on the border of Ireland, why would America care about that at all?

    The EU is far more important to the US's interests than the UK.

    Hmm, that's not really true though is it. The UK is far more important to the US because we have wholly aligned interests, the EU keeps banging on about "strategic autonomy". Do you think that hasn't gone unnoticed in DC?

    Well, indeed - the US knows that the UK has forfeited any ability to have "strategic autonomy" and so the US can pretty much do what it likes with us. With the EU, which is far bigger, there is always going to be more of a negotiation.

    But they also know the EU has no chance of strategic autonomy. Negotiate on what? The EU is wholly reliant on the US for its security, they know it, we know it and the US knows it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,955
    rcs1000 said:

    China announces it will 'strictly limit' overseas travel......
    Somethings gonna go off, probably Taiwan..

    I think Russia's experience in Ukraine has significantly reduced the likelihood of a near-term Taiwan invasion. Simply: the damage a dug in defender can do is absolutely enormous. And Taiwan has a much, much stronger military than Ukraine, with modern US and French jet fighters - plus it's got the massive advantage of a 150 mile ocean that the Chinese would need to cross.

    Oh yeah... and don't forget that most of China's military (with the exception of a very small number of modern fighters) is Russian tech.

    I suspect that this is Covid related.
    Well Covid is the excuse, yes, but it's not a response to any actual problem with it. Shanghai port is in a state of complete collapse, Beijing is not in lockdown despite the same situation as Shanghai, 350 million elsewhere are in lockdown in China and North Korea has just gone into full lockdown after its 'first' case.
    Something is going on that is not a simple and much less deadly than it was virus.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,508

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    algarkirk said:

    Once you overlook the political slants, one true thing which remains is this: No-one really believes that separating out NI from GB in terms of trade agreements and relationships (ie the border being in the Irish Sea), removing the integrity of the UK single market, is really within the spirit of the GFA; just as imposing a border within the island wouldn't be either.

    For myself I support a united Ireland, and as soon as possible. But others don't. What is missing in the debate, whether from the EU, DUP, Labour, LDs, the USA or the RoI is: what, with detail, is the plan which would work, be democratic, and respect the Brexit vote and the GFA? What do you want. They are not telling us, while blaming Boris.

    If there isn't something coherent they want, there is little point in blaming Boris, who is left hold a Rubiks cube with no solution.

    There is a simple solution. Tell the EU to go stuff their "integrity of the Single Market" and sort out the problem themselves.

    If they want to check things on the Irish border they can, they won't, so that's it.
    As you were saying five years ago. Not too long before Boris then instituted a border cutting off one part of the UK from another.

    Like he had wanted to do all along because he was jealous of all those other European countries.
    Indeed, I was right five years ago and am still right today. Looks like my view is going to be put to the test.

    Boris instituted a border cutting off one part of the UK from another because it was an infinitely superior solution to the backstop and the Remain-Parliament we had wouldn't pass any alternative and wouldn't allow us to exit the EU without a deal.

    We have a different Parliament now though, so its time to revisit the NI solution.
    You were wrong five years ago because you said almost word for word what you said a few minutes ago - that the UK would "tell the EU to go stuff their "integrity of the Single Market" and sort out the problem themselves."

    Which they - the UK govt - precisely and absolutely did not do. They are now saying again that they might do it. So you might be proven right. But I very much doubt it. You will be proven wrong. Again.
    As far as I know I never said they would, I said they should.

    Sadly Hammond and the rest of the EU's useful idiots in the 2017-19 Parliament prevented that from happening. Those idiots have gone now.
    The point was that back then the idea of putting a border between NI and ROI was so out of the question that Boris instead decided to divide up the United Kingdom - quite a dramatic move one might have said.

    I don't see that anything has changed such that it is not similarly to be avoided putting a border between NI & ROI.

    It was Boris not some long-gone remainers who instituted the border in the Irish Sea. He could at any time since his 80-seat majority have decided not to. He did not do so. But now you think is the time.

    We shall see.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.

    Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.

    The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
    Bollocks, the USA will do whatever is in the USA's interest, just as it did with the tax reforms.

    Besides if the UK voids the Protocol, as we are legally entitled to do based upon the Protocol's own safeguarding article, what is the USA going to care about that years later once the bluff has revealed that doing so was no threat to GFA?

    Once the EU's bluff is called and no checks are done on the border of Ireland, why would America care about that at all?

    The EU is far more important to the US's interests than the UK.

    Hmm, that's not really true though is it. The UK is far more important to the US because we have wholly aligned interests, the EU keeps banging on about "strategic autonomy". Do you think that hasn't gone unnoticed in DC?

    Well, indeed - the US knows that the UK has forfeited any ability to have "strategic autonomy" and so the US can pretty much do what it likes with us. With the EU, which is far bigger, there is always going to be more of a negotiation.
    Ukraine has thrown the conventional wisdom about strategic autonomy out of the window so this is outdated thinking.

    Yes, Ukraine has changed a lot. What it hasn't changed, though, is that the UK cannot walk away from anything that the US values in its relationship with us. In fact, it's made that even less possible than before.

  • TazTaz Posts: 4,787

    China announces it will 'strictly limit' overseas travel......
    Somethings gonna go off, probably Taiwan..

    COVID related surely ?
This discussion has been closed.