Once you overlook the political slants, one true thing which remains is this: No-one really believes that separating out NI from GB in terms of trade agreements and relationships (ie the border being in the Irish Sea), removing the integrity of the UK single market, is really within the spirit of the GFA; just as imposing a border within the island wouldn't be either.
For myself I support a united Ireland, and as soon as possible. But others don't. What is missing in the debate, whether from the EU, DUP, Labour, LDs, the USA or the RoI is: what, with detail, is the plan which would work, be democratic, and respect the Brexit vote and the GFA? What do you want. They are not telling us, while blaming Boris.
If there isn't something coherent they want, there is little point in blaming Boris, who is left hold a Rubiks cube with no solution.
There's every point in blaming someone who a) campaigned for Vote Rubik's Cube in 2016, and laughed off claims that it would be jolly difficult to solve and b) ripped the cube out of someone else's hands saying her solution was rubbish.
Point taken to that extent. But what is the solution all parties are happy with he is now avoiding? Yes, Boris is part of the problem. But I am unclear what solution the other parties want.
The problem is fairly intractable, as opponents of Brexit have always pointed out. How do you take the UK out of the EU SM and CU while keeping NI inside it and fully integrated with the UK? That's a piece of geometry that doesn't really work. The solution that Boris Johnson signed up to puts barriers up in the Irish Sea - so NI is no longer fully integrated into the UK. If he doesn't like it then why did he sign up to it? It's not like the problem wasn't raised at the time. There are two solutions that work in terms of geometry - a United Ireland (which the DUP object to), or the UK returns to the SM and CU (which the Tories object to). The fact that this whole mess was created by the DUP and Tories' support for Brexit is one of the ironies of the situation.
Point taken. On a historical note, the (terrible) Remain campaign never campaigned on the basis that Brexit is a logical impossibility because of the island of Ireland and the GFA and that there was no solution. They were keen really to say we can leave but shouldn't.
My support for Brexit - somewhat reluctant - was because it was difficult to achieve in 2016 but would become impossible as time went on, and that would build a democratic deficit into a system we could not solve. The unsatisfactory chance had to be taken. There would never be another.
Fair enough. I think even Remain didn't really understand how intractable the Irish border issue was, because the English have always paid less attention to Ireland than they should (especially given they are still occupying part of it). I wouldn't have minded if the Leave campaign had said "Brexit will create a big mess and we will be poorer but it will still be worth it." That is a position that I can respect and understand. But they won on a false prospectus and have continued lying ever since. That is something that is unforgivable.
I understood, and I'm a f*****' idiot.
Boris Johnson must have known that either a border in the North Channel or at Dundalk would trigger one side or the other. If he didn't understand that, where has he been for the last fifty years?
I suspect the reality is neither Johnson nor his hard Brexit henchmen cared not one jot. Perhaps their most disingenuous assertion since 2016 has been that the GFA is faulty because it never took account of a potential Brexit.
They understood alright!
In a sense that, if true, is beside the point. Where we had got to in 2016 was that being in the EU was not a solution; there was sufficient momentum behind the anti EU movement. If that is true, there was and is no satisfactory way forward, including the way forward to doing nothing. Only a choice of unsatisfactory ones. Of those outcomes I backed, and still back, EFTA for now. Like all the others, unsatisfactory.
EFTA would have pretty much kept a lid on the NI problem.
No one voted Remain because they thought the EU was awesome, it just seemed considerably less sub- optimal than any alternative. Then, of the seventeen million versions of Brexit people voted for, Mrs May settled for a bad one and Johnson plumped for one which was even worse.
The primary reasons people voted for Brexit were democratic control of laws and controlling immigration. EFTA addressed neither. May and Johnson, despite their flaws, were smart enough to understand if you didn't address the reasons behind a vote you just store up trouble. The europhile mindset of "let's just address the minimum technicalities needed" is why people like Le Pen are so successful.
EFTA membership would of course have returned democratic control of laws to the UK. Membership of EFTA does not require accession to any more external laws than membership of NATO. Nor would it have required freedom of movement unless we had also sought to join the EEA. A move I was personally in favour of.
I thought EFTA did contain some FoM provisions?
Edit to add: since 2002 and the Vaduz Convention, the EFTA treaties have allowed for FoM between members states. However it is at a very significantly less onerous level than in the EU. There is no requirement - for example - to pay benefits to immigrants from other EFTA countries.
Given the 4 other EFTA countries all have very small populations and are all substantially richer than the UK per capita I suspect those opposing freedom of movement for various spurious reasons would not have found much to argue about with EFTA FoM.
If you refresh, you'll find I added that to my post
Much confusion here! No-one sane ever proposed EFTA membership without also signing up to EEA membership, which would have meant full EU FOM and automatic alignment with much EU law.
Theresa May got this right. It was impossible to get much of a coherent picture from the Leave vote, but the one unambiguous message from voters was a rejection of FOM.
That's not true. EFTA is a small European trading bloc, albeit one that also done a lot of heavy lifting with trade agreements.
However... I don't think it would be particularly simple for us to join, and just inherit those agreements. The reality is that those who did deals with EFTA did so on the basis that it was four small rich countries, who were prodigious purchasers of products from around the world, and who would be unlikely to threaten any of their domestic industries. If the UK were to join, I don't think their free trade partners would just say 'yay' and let us cosign the treaties. On the contrary, I think they'd want us to enter into a long and boring negotiation process.
Whilst the Brexit vote holds up...no one seems to have changed their mind (let alone the new Tory core voters- white, ill educated men),,,The Tories will pull this kind of bullshit all day long whether or not it fucks off Biden
Once you overlook the political slants, one true thing which remains is this: No-one really believes that separating out NI from GB in terms of trade agreements and relationships (ie the border being in the Irish Sea), removing the integrity of the UK single market, is really within the spirit of the GFA; just as imposing a border within the island wouldn't be either.
For myself I support a united Ireland, and as soon as possible. But others don't. What is missing in the debate, whether from the EU, DUP, Labour, LDs, the USA or the RoI is: what, with detail, is the plan which would work, be democratic, and respect the Brexit vote and the GFA? What do you want. They are not telling us, while blaming Boris.
If there isn't something coherent they want, there is little point in blaming Boris, who is left hold a Rubiks cube with no solution.
There's every point in blaming someone who a) campaigned for Vote Rubik's Cube in 2016, and laughed off claims that it would be jolly difficult to solve and b) ripped the cube out of someone else's hands saying her solution was rubbish.
Point taken to that extent. But what is the solution all parties are happy with he is now avoiding? Yes, Boris is part of the problem. But I am unclear what solution the other parties want.
The problem is fairly intractable, as opponents of Brexit have always pointed out. How do you take the UK out of the EU SM and CU while keeping NI inside it and fully integrated with the UK? That's a piece of geometry that doesn't really work. The solution that Boris Johnson signed up to puts barriers up in the Irish Sea - so NI is no longer fully integrated into the UK. If he doesn't like it then why did he sign up to it? It's not like the problem wasn't raised at the time. There are two solutions that work in terms of geometry - a United Ireland (which the DUP object to), or the UK returns to the SM and CU (which the Tories object to). The fact that this whole mess was created by the DUP and Tories' support for Brexit is one of the ironies of the situation.
Point taken. On a historical note, the (terrible) Remain campaign never campaigned on the basis that Brexit is a logical impossibility because of the island of Ireland and the GFA and that there was no solution. They were keen really to say we can leave but shouldn't.
My support for Brexit - somewhat reluctant - was because it was difficult to achieve in 2016 but would become impossible as time went on, and that would build a democratic deficit into a system we could not solve. The unsatisfactory chance had to be taken. There would never be another.
Fair enough. I think even Remain didn't really understand how intractable the Irish border issue was, because the English have always paid less attention to Ireland than they should (especially given they are still occupying part of it). I wouldn't have minded if the Leave campaign had said "Brexit will create a big mess and we will be poorer but it will still be worth it." That is a position that I can respect and understand. But they won on a false prospectus and have continued lying ever since. That is something that is unforgivable.
I understood, and I'm a f*****' idiot.
Boris Johnson must have known that either a border in the North Channel or at Dundalk would trigger one side or the other. If he didn't understand that, where has he been for the last fifty years?
I suspect the reality is neither Johnson nor his hard Brexit henchmen cared not one jot. Perhaps their most disingenuous assertion since 2016 has been that the GFA is faulty because it never took account of a potential Brexit.
They understood alright!
In a sense that, if true, is beside the point. Where we had got to in 2016 was that being in the EU was not a solution; there was sufficient momentum behind the anti EU movement. If that is true, there was and is no satisfactory way forward, including the way forward to doing nothing. Only a choice of unsatisfactory ones. Of those outcomes I backed, and still back, EFTA for now. Like all the others, unsatisfactory.
EFTA would have pretty much kept a lid on the NI problem.
No one voted Remain because they thought the EU was awesome, it just seemed considerably less sub- optimal than any alternative. Then, of the seventeen million versions of Brexit people voted for, Mrs May settled for a bad one and Johnson plumped for one which was even worse.
The primary reasons people voted for Brexit were democratic control of laws and controlling immigration. EFTA addressed neither. May and Johnson, despite their flaws, were smart enough to understand if you didn't address the reasons behind a vote you just store up trouble. The europhile mindset of "let's just address the minimum technicalities needed" is why people like Le Pen are so successful.
There were, as I suggested earlier 17million reasons people voted for Brexit. Some voted for what I consider to be a faulty argument over Parliamentary sovereignty, which in my view we retained throughout our time in the EU. Although in all fairness you have conceded the main reason was immigration. How's that going at present?
Mrs May understood the contradiction between the GFA and Brexit, and she tried for a compromise. It was rubbish, but she tried. Johnson on the other hand has stored up his own brand of trouble and either he doesn't understand Irish and Anglo-Irish history, or he doesn't give a ****. Johnson's faulty premise of Brexit in relation to the GFA will not just go away by pissing off the EU, Dublin or the Nationalists.
The US will bleat a bit but will do nothing. It’s hardly going to let this impact our defence and security relationship and no trade deal is on the table anyway. Frankly, I also think some Eastern EU and Baltic states may moderate EU actions at the minute.
As ever though, what’s most likely is some good old fashioned last minute EU brinkmanship, aided by a U.S. nudge, and a deal done.
And what happens if the Tories' favourites kick off? They'll have to be bribed all over again.
Oh I wouldn’t start from here, and the DUP are way past the point that any U.K. Gvt should be telling them to piss off and grow up.
If Boris is 6 short of an overall majority after the next general election, he would lick Jeffrey Donaldson's shoes if it meant he got to stay in No 10. We all know that!
Once you overlook the political slants, one true thing which remains is this: No-one really believes that separating out NI from GB in terms of trade agreements and relationships (ie the border being in the Irish Sea), removing the integrity of the UK single market, is really within the spirit of the GFA; just as imposing a border within the island wouldn't be either.
For myself I support a united Ireland, and as soon as possible. But others don't. What is missing in the debate, whether from the EU, DUP, Labour, LDs, the USA or the RoI is: what, with detail, is the plan which would work, be democratic, and respect the Brexit vote and the GFA? What do you want. They are not telling us, while blaming Boris.
If there isn't something coherent they want, there is little point in blaming Boris, who is left hold a Rubiks cube with no solution.
There's every point in blaming someone who a) campaigned for Vote Rubik's Cube in 2016, and laughed off claims that it would be jolly difficult to solve and b) ripped the cube out of someone else's hands saying her solution was rubbish.
Point taken to that extent. But what is the solution all parties are happy with he is now avoiding? Yes, Boris is part of the problem. But I am unclear what solution the other parties want.
The problem is fairly intractable, as opponents of Brexit have always pointed out. How do you take the UK out of the EU SM and CU while keeping NI inside it and fully integrated with the UK? That's a piece of geometry that doesn't really work. The solution that Boris Johnson signed up to puts barriers up in the Irish Sea - so NI is no longer fully integrated into the UK. If he doesn't like it then why did he sign up to it? It's not like the problem wasn't raised at the time. There are two solutions that work in terms of geometry - a United Ireland (which the DUP object to), or the UK returns to the SM and CU (which the Tories object to). The fact that this whole mess was created by the DUP and Tories' support for Brexit is one of the ironies of the situation.
Point taken. On a historical note, the (terrible) Remain campaign never campaigned on the basis that Brexit is a logical impossibility because of the island of Ireland and the GFA and that there was no solution. They were keen really to say we can leave but shouldn't.
My support for Brexit - somewhat reluctant - was because it was difficult to achieve in 2016 but would become impossible as time went on, and that would build a democratic deficit into a system we could not solve. The unsatisfactory chance had to be taken. There would never be another.
Fair enough. I think even Remain didn't really understand how intractable the Irish border issue was, because the English have always paid less attention to Ireland than they should (especially given they are still occupying part of it). I wouldn't have minded if the Leave campaign had said "Brexit will create a big mess and we will be poorer but it will still be worth it." That is a position that I can respect and understand. But they won on a false prospectus and have continued lying ever since. That is something that is unforgivable.
I understood, and I'm a f*****' idiot.
Boris Johnson must have known that either a border in the North Channel or at Dundalk would trigger one side or the other. If he didn't understand that, where has he been for the last fifty years?
I suspect the reality is neither Johnson nor his hard Brexit henchmen cared not one jot. Perhaps their most disingenuous assertion since 2016 has been that the GFA is faulty because it never took account of a potential Brexit.
They understood alright!
In a sense that, if true, is beside the point. Where we had got to in 2016 was that being in the EU was not a solution; there was sufficient momentum behind the anti EU movement. If that is true, there was and is no satisfactory way forward, including the way forward to doing nothing. Only a choice of unsatisfactory ones. Of those outcomes I backed, and still back, EFTA for now. Like all the others, unsatisfactory.
EFTA would have pretty much kept a lid on the NI problem.
No one voted Remain because they thought the EU was awesome, it just seemed considerably less sub- optimal than any alternative. Then, of the seventeen million versions of Brexit people voted for, Mrs May settled for a bad one and Johnson plumped for one which was even worse.
The primary reasons people voted for Brexit were democratic control of laws and controlling immigration. EFTA addressed neither. May and Johnson, despite their flaws, were smart enough to understand if you didn't address the reasons behind a vote you just store up trouble. The europhile mindset of "let's just address the minimum technicalities needed" is why people like Le Pen are so successful.
But people like Le Pen aren't successful. Farage has proved more successful than Le Pen. He got his Brexit and fully UKIPed the Tory Party. Le Pen is just a three times loser. The last time by almost 60/40
No more salt in that particular wound please. Almost, sob.
Posting this because I sympathise - but also to note the linked poll, which suggests the Supreme Court’s judico-political activism might be a very large factor in the mid term elections.
https://twitter.com/ElieNYC/status/1524790303386902528 Now, we care. Now we fucking care. THIS ISSUE HAS BEEN ON THE BALLOT EVERY FUCKING ELECTION FOR THE PAST 20 YEARS AT LEAST BUT NOW WE FUCKING CARE. They've been promising to do this for DECADES and now they've done it AND NOW WE CARE!?
Critical thing to understand is how that splits by party. It could well be the GOP voters want to cement the win in the court with a Federal victory on the law books as well.
Biden's an Irishman until it comes time to fucking their economy over, then he's an American.
Ultimately, I don't think it's going to make a difference what the Americans say.
The difference it will make is that the UK government is still pretending (absurdly, but it's a religious belief of the Brexiteers) that there's some great UK-US trade deal coming down the road, and reneging on the Protocol would very publicly blow that idea out of the water.
Bollocks, the USA will do whatever is in the USA's interest, just as it did with the tax reforms.
Besides if the UK voids the Protocol, as we are legally entitled to do based upon the Protocol's own safeguarding article, what is the USA going to care about that years later once the bluff has revealed that doing so was no threat to GFA?
Once the EU's bluff is called and no checks are done on the border of Ireland, why would America care about that at all?
The EU is far more important to the US's interests than the UK.
Hmm, that's not really true though is it. The UK is far more important to the US because we have wholly aligned interests, the EU keeps banging on about "strategic autonomy". Do you think that hasn't gone unnoticed in DC?
Well, indeed - the US knows that the UK has forfeited any ability to have "strategic autonomy" and so the US can pretty much do what it likes with us. With the EU, which is far bigger, there is always going to be more of a negotiation.
Ukraine has thrown the conventional wisdom about strategic autonomy out of the window so this is outdated thinking.
Talking about Ukraine's innovation, this thread on the artillery targeting and fire control app developed by an Ukranian dev using the Uber model of linking demand to nearest by available assets is mind-boggling. It's a long thread, but well worth the read:
The Telegraph is asking “will Russia invade Finland”
I strongly suspect the answer is No, but still. Disquieting
In a small, sick way it would be hilarious to see them try. The Finns would be in St Petersburg in days.
The more that Putin appears to be an impotent fool the more dangerous it gets. Funny as the Russian failure is, we still need to offer them a way out. Forcing them into a corner where the only exit is themo-nuclear would be unwise.
Way out: Pull out of Ukraine. All of it including Crimea.
The obvious compromise is Crimea as an independent neutral state. Of course Russian delusions of grandeur mean they aren't prepared to accept this yet.
Finland is one of those - neutral. They don't plan to remain so. Neutral states get invaded. It would either have western backing or be under permanent threat. RoI is soon going to look like a quaint anomaly, tolerated only because we all know the UK would never allow her to go undefended.
Some neutral states get invaded, some don't. The record is mixed in WWII.
A little known fact is Britain invaded neutral Iceland in 1940. Operation Fork. We had good strategic reasons but regardless it was an invasion of a neutral country.
My father was there for a couple of years in 1941-43. After the horrors of France and Norway it was a pleasanter expedition. The locals were very friendly and the British army there actually had quite a nice time. A few married local girls.
The US will bleat a bit but will do nothing. It’s hardly going to let this impact our defence and security relationship and no trade deal is on the table anyway. Frankly, I also think some Eastern EU and Baltic states may moderate EU actions at the minute.
As ever though, what’s most likely is some good old fashioned last minute EU brinkmanship, aided by a U.S. nudge, and a deal done.
And what happens if the Tories' favourites kick off? They'll have to be bribed all over again.
Oh I wouldn’t start from here, and the DUP are way past the point that any U.K. Gvt should be telling them to piss off and grow up.
If Boris is 6 short of an overall majority after the next general election, he would lick Jeffrey Donaldson's shoes if it meant he got to stay in No 10. We all know that!
Six short, he wouldn't need a coalition partner, there would be no chance of a stable alternative.
Once you overlook the political slants, one true thing which remains is this: No-one really believes that separating out NI from GB in terms of trade agreements and relationships (ie the border being in the Irish Sea), removing the integrity of the UK single market, is really within the spirit of the GFA; just as imposing a border within the island wouldn't be either.
For myself I support a united Ireland, and as soon as possible. But others don't. What is missing in the debate, whether from the EU, DUP, Labour, LDs, the USA or the RoI is: what, with detail, is the plan which would work, be democratic, and respect the Brexit vote and the GFA? What do you want. They are not telling us, while blaming Boris.
If there isn't something coherent they want, there is little point in blaming Boris, who is left hold a Rubiks cube with no solution.
There's every point in blaming someone who a) campaigned for Vote Rubik's Cube in 2016, and laughed off claims that it would be jolly difficult to solve and b) ripped the cube out of someone else's hands saying her solution was rubbish.
Point taken to that extent. But what is the solution all parties are happy with he is now avoiding? Yes, Boris is part of the problem. But I am unclear what solution the other parties want.
The problem is fairly intractable, as opponents of Brexit have always pointed out. How do you take the UK out of the EU SM and CU while keeping NI inside it and fully integrated with the UK? That's a piece of geometry that doesn't really work. The solution that Boris Johnson signed up to puts barriers up in the Irish Sea - so NI is no longer fully integrated into the UK. If he doesn't like it then why did he sign up to it? It's not like the problem wasn't raised at the time. There are two solutions that work in terms of geometry - a United Ireland (which the DUP object to), or the UK returns to the SM and CU (which the Tories object to). The fact that this whole mess was created by the DUP and Tories' support for Brexit is one of the ironies of the situation.
Point taken. On a historical note, the (terrible) Remain campaign never campaigned on the basis that Brexit is a logical impossibility because of the island of Ireland and the GFA and that there was no solution. They were keen really to say we can leave but shouldn't.
My support for Brexit - somewhat reluctant - was because it was difficult to achieve in 2016 but would become impossible as time went on, and that would build a democratic deficit into a system we could not solve. The unsatisfactory chance had to be taken. There would never be another.
Fair enough. I think even Remain didn't really understand how intractable the Irish border issue was, because the English have always paid less attention to Ireland than they should (especially given they are still occupying part of it). I wouldn't have minded if the Leave campaign had said "Brexit will create a big mess and we will be poorer but it will still be worth it." That is a position that I can respect and understand. But they won on a false prospectus and have continued lying ever since. That is something that is unforgivable.
I understood, and I'm a f*****' idiot.
Boris Johnson must have known that either a border in the North Channel or at Dundalk would trigger one side or the other. If he didn't understand that, where has he been for the last fifty years?
I suspect the reality is neither Johnson nor his hard Brexit henchmen cared not one jot. Perhaps their most disingenuous assertion since 2016 has been that the GFA is faulty because it never took account of a potential Brexit.
They understood alright!
In a sense that, if true, is beside the point. Where we had got to in 2016 was that being in the EU was not a solution; there was sufficient momentum behind the anti EU movement. If that is true, there was and is no satisfactory way forward, including the way forward to doing nothing. Only a choice of unsatisfactory ones. Of those outcomes I backed, and still back, EFTA for now. Like all the others, unsatisfactory.
EFTA would have pretty much kept a lid on the NI problem.
No one voted Remain because they thought the EU was awesome, it just seemed considerably less sub- optimal than any alternative. Then, of the seventeen million versions of Brexit people voted for, Mrs May settled for a bad one and Johnson plumped for one which was even worse.
The primary reasons people voted for Brexit were democratic control of laws and controlling immigration. EFTA addressed neither. May and Johnson, despite their flaws, were smart enough to understand if you didn't address the reasons behind a vote you just store up trouble. The europhile mindset of "let's just address the minimum technicalities needed" is why people like Le Pen are so successful.
EFTA membership would of course have returned democratic control of laws to the UK. Membership of EFTA does not require accession to any more external laws than membership of NATO. Nor would it have required freedom of movement unless we had also sought to join the EEA. A move I was personally in favour of.
I thought EFTA did contain some FoM provisions?
Edit to add: since 2002 and the Vaduz Convention, the EFTA treaties have allowed for FoM between members states. However it is at a very significantly less onerous level than in the EU. There is no requirement - for example - to pay benefits to immigrants from other EFTA countries.
Given the 4 other EFTA countries all have very small populations and are all substantially richer than the UK per capita I suspect those opposing freedom of movement for various spurious reasons would not have found much to argue about with EFTA FoM.
If you refresh, you'll find I added that to my post
Much confusion here! No-one sane ever proposed EFTA membership without also signing up to EEA membership, which would have meant full EU FOM and automatic alignment with much EU law.
Theresa May got this right. It was impossible to get much of a coherent picture from the Leave vote, but the one unambiguous message from voters was a rejection of FOM.
If I didn't like you Richard I could take offence at that comment. I not only proposed EFTA membership I even had a £100 bet with you that that was where we would end up - a bet you won and I paid up on. I even wrote a thread header on this the day after the vote.
It was a perfectly sane suggestion and one that we should have pursued. I still think it is where we will end up at some point.
Edit. Glad to see you posting Richard. You do it too rarely these days.
The US will bleat a bit but will do nothing. It’s hardly going to let this impact our defence and security relationship and no trade deal is on the table anyway. Frankly, I also think some Eastern EU and Baltic states may moderate EU actions at the minute.
As ever though, what’s most likely is some good old fashioned last minute EU brinkmanship, aided by a U.S. nudge, and a deal done.
And what happens if the Tories' favourites kick off? They'll have to be bribed all over again.
Oh I wouldn’t start from here, and the DUP are way past the point that any U.K. Gvt should be telling them to piss off and grow up.
If Boris is 6 short of an overall majority after the next general election, he would lick Jeffrey Donaldson's shoes if it meant he got to stay in No 10. We all know that!
Six short, he wouldn't need a coalition partner, there would be no chance of a stable alternative.
Depends if SF took their seats or not, which is not now impossible if it made the difference between keeping the NIP or scrapping it
The US will bleat a bit but will do nothing. It’s hardly going to let this impact our defence and security relationship and no trade deal is on the table anyway. Frankly, I also think some Eastern EU and Baltic states may moderate EU actions at the minute.
As ever though, what’s most likely is some good old fashioned last minute EU brinkmanship, aided by a U.S. nudge, and a deal done.
And what happens if the Tories' favourites kick off? They'll have to be bribed all over again.
Oh I wouldn’t start from here, and the DUP are way past the point that any U.K. Gvt should be telling them to piss off and grow up.
If Boris is 6 short of an overall majority after the next general election, he would lick Jeffrey Donaldson's shoes if it meant he got to stay in No 10. We all know that!
Six short, he wouldn't need a coalition partner, there would be no chance of a stable alternative.
Hardly a stable government either, but given Sinn Fein it'd be just about enough (I don't understand why after all this time they would stop being abstentionist, even over the protocol. If they didn't break previously on Brexit why then?)
The US will bleat a bit but will do nothing. It’s hardly going to let this impact our defence and security relationship and no trade deal is on the table anyway. Frankly, I also think some Eastern EU and Baltic states may moderate EU actions at the minute.
As ever though, what’s most likely is some good old fashioned last minute EU brinkmanship, aided by a U.S. nudge, and a deal done.
Maybe, but after years of moronic statements and brinkmanship from all quarters (who has done more depending on one's politics), it would have been nice if they all gave it a bloody rest for once and stopped acting like children throwing tantrums.
The government and the DUP, being the tantrum throwers on this occasion, may protest that these are serious, weighty issues. Well, their petulant, histrionic whinges beg to differ.
It's theatre. The other side play their parts as well. But I'd hope most people were sick of it, even from their own side, years ago already.
The US will bleat a bit but will do nothing. It’s hardly going to let this impact our defence and security relationship and no trade deal is on the table anyway. Frankly, I also think some Eastern EU and Baltic states may moderate EU actions at the minute.
As ever though, what’s most likely is some good old fashioned last minute EU brinkmanship, aided by a U.S. nudge, and a deal done.
And what happens if the Tories' favourites kick off? They'll have to be bribed all over again.
Oh I wouldn’t start from here, and the DUP are way past the point that any U.K. Gvt should be telling them to piss off and grow up.
If Boris is 6 short of an overall majority after the next general election, he would lick Jeffrey Donaldson's shoes if it meant he got to stay in No 10. We all know that!
Six short, he wouldn't need a coalition partner, there would be no chance of a stable alternative.
Hardly a stable government either, but given Sinn Fein it'd be just about enough (I don't understand why after all this time they would stop being abstentionist, even over the protocol. If they didn't break previously on Brexit why then?)
Sure, but as the incumbent he wouldn't need it to be - he only gets forced out if someone else can pass a Queen's Speech (and at the hypothesis of 319 Tories vs 331 of everybody else even with SF, that seems somewhat less than plausible).
On the Northern Ireland - Good Friday Agreement - Brexit Conundrum:
Might it be possible (following up on a notion by Leon that noted Hiberniophile) to designate Northern Ireland as a Special Trade Zone, with special rights within United Kingdom AND with the Republic of Ireland?
With gory details (such as NI goods ending up in France via RoI, and RoI in England) worked out via arrangements (as non-obtrusive as possible) lubricated as necessary by US-UK-EU funding. As it would be a win-win-win from their perspectives. AND for Ireland South AND North - Protestant, Catholic and None of the Above.
Plus setting a half-way positive example for Russians & etc.?
New scapegoats ready for the public beating are civil servants with Johnson wanting to axe 91,000 jobs .
Savings will allegedly go into helping with the cost of living crisis . More pandering to the angry mob !
You can’t just fire people overnight so this is the latest pile of nonsense to dupe the plebs .
And. Building up a grievance about government inefficiency. We wanted to help! But it the "pen- pushers" were incompetent, bone idle and malicious. I for one admire the chutzpah. No attempt to address the problem. But an industrial load of seeding for the harvesting of future blame.
The US will bleat a bit but will do nothing. It’s hardly going to let this impact our defence and security relationship and no trade deal is on the table anyway. Frankly, I also think some Eastern EU and Baltic states may moderate EU actions at the minute.
As ever though, what’s most likely is some good old fashioned last minute EU brinkmanship, aided by a U.S. nudge, and a deal done.
And what happens if the Tories' favourites kick off? They'll have to be bribed all over again.
Oh I wouldn’t start from here, and the DUP are way past the point that any U.K. Gvt should be telling them to piss off and grow up.
If Boris is 6 short of an overall majority after the next general election, he would lick Jeffrey Donaldson's shoes if it meant he got to stay in No 10. We all know that!
Six short, he wouldn't need a coalition partner, there would be no chance of a stable alternative.
Depends if SF took their seats or not, which is not now impossible if it made the difference between keeping the NIP or scrapping it
That’s rubbish HY. They will never take their seats under any circumstance. Not even if they didn’t have to swear in loyalty to Queen.
Do you think the UK government are showing honesty here - in that the rest of the world can see the honesty in our argument?
On the Northern Ireland - Good Friday Agreement - Brexit Conundrum:
Might it be possible (following up on a notion by Leon that noted Hiberniophile) to designate Northern Ireland as a Special Trade Zone, with special rights within United Kingdom AND with the Republic of Ireland?
With gory details (such as NI goods ending up in France via RoI, and RoI in England) worked out via arrangements (as non-obtrusive as possible) lubricated as necessary by US-UK-EU funding. As it would be a win-win-win from their perspectives. AND for Ireland South AND North - Protestant, Catholic and None of the Above.
Plus setting a half-way positive example for Russians & etc.?
Of course. But the EU is a “rules-based organisation” which would never indulge such fudge. Unless it wanted to, obvs.
The US will bleat a bit but will do nothing. It’s hardly going to let this impact our defence and security relationship and no trade deal is on the table anyway. Frankly, I also think some Eastern EU and Baltic states may moderate EU actions at the minute.
As ever though, what’s most likely is some good old fashioned last minute EU brinkmanship, aided by a U.S. nudge, and a deal done.
And what happens if the Tories' favourites kick off? They'll have to be bribed all over again.
Oh I wouldn’t start from here, and the DUP are way past the point that any U.K. Gvt should be telling them to piss off and grow up.
If Boris is 6 short of an overall majority after the next general election, he would lick Jeffrey Donaldson's shoes if it meant he got to stay in No 10. We all know that!
And stretch that elastic further. Eventually it snaps and you get a 1997. Alternatively, you could compromise with majority opinion. Of course that may leave you bereft of a couple of decades of moaning to come.
GBP EUR has been one of the more stable currency pairs recently. Crypto has turned to shit, the dollar has been strong, the ruble strongest.... Controlling basic resource such as wheat and hydrocarbons which both the USA and Russia do is where the underlying strength is. You don't want to be reliant on the kindness of strangers right now. Europe is - I think ounterintuitively sterling would be tracking USD more closely if we were in the EU mind..
Developing basic resources like hyrdocarbons and wheat is where the underlying strength is.
Britain has plentiful supplies of one of these. But Net Zero, innit.
We don't have plentiful supplies of economically viable hydrocarbons, and if you think we do, then you're an idiot.
Now sure, we could produce more oil & gas than we do, but it would be mostly offshore and through remediation of existing fields.
But it is far from clear that shale gas in Lancashire (or anywhere else in the UK) is economically exploitable.
But it would be been a lot better to have let some capitalists lose their shirts (or otherwise) trying than to ban it by government dictact because of the green nimby tendency. It might be a dud, it might be another 80s North Sea style boom, but we'll never know unless firms are permitted to try.
Not sure why it would take as long as the upper estimate, unless there's some governments they think will be reluctant and need arm twisting. *cough* Hungary *cough*
From BBC Finland has been told by Nato chiefs it could take up to a year for the country to join the military alliance.
The government in Helsinki had been promised the process of joining Nato would be “smooth and swift”.
But Finland’s Foreign Minister, Pekka Haavisto, told journalists that Nato’s Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, had said the ratification process could take between four and 12 months.
This is the period during which the legislatures of Nato’s 30 member states would give their formal support for Finland’s application.
The US will bleat a bit but will do nothing. It’s hardly going to let this impact our defence and security relationship and no trade deal is on the table anyway. Frankly, I also think some Eastern EU and Baltic states may moderate EU actions at the minute.
As ever though, what’s most likely is some good old fashioned last minute EU brinkmanship, aided by a U.S. nudge, and a deal done.
And what happens if the Tories' favourites kick off? They'll have to be bribed all over again.
Oh I wouldn’t start from here, and the DUP are way past the point that any U.K. Gvt should be telling them to piss off and grow up.
If Boris is 6 short of an overall majority after the next general election, he would lick Jeffrey Donaldson's shoes if it meant he got to stay in No 10. We all know that!
Six short, he wouldn't need a coalition partner, there would be no chance of a stable alternative.
Depends if SF took their seats or not, which is not now impossible if it made the difference between keeping the NIP or scrapping it
That’s rubbish HY. They will never take their seats under any circumstance. Not even if they didn’t have to swear in loyalty to Queen.
Do you think the UK government are showing honesty here - in that the rest of the world can see the honesty in our argument?
Sinn Fein was NEVER gonna take seats in existing (as opposed to theoretical) Dail. Until they did.
They were NEVER gonna sit at Stormont either. Until they did.
Obviously, SF will never take their seats at Westminster. Until they decide to.
Absentionism is an ideological strategy and political tactic NOT natural law or divine dogma.
The US will bleat a bit but will do nothing. It’s hardly going to let this impact our defence and security relationship and no trade deal is on the table anyway. Frankly, I also think some Eastern EU and Baltic states may moderate EU actions at the minute.
As ever though, what’s most likely is some good old fashioned last minute EU brinkmanship, aided by a U.S. nudge, and a deal done.
And what happens if the Tories' favourites kick off? They'll have to be bribed all over again.
Oh I wouldn’t start from here, and the DUP are way past the point that any U.K. Gvt should be telling them to piss off and grow up.
If Boris is 6 short of an overall majority after the next general election, he would lick Jeffrey Donaldson's shoes if it meant he got to stay in No 10. We all know that!
Six short, he wouldn't need a coalition partner, there would be no chance of a stable alternative.
Depends if SF took their seats or not, which is not now impossible if it made the difference between keeping the NIP or scrapping it
That’s rubbish HY. They will never take their seats under any circumstance. Not even if they didn’t have to swear in loyalty to Queen.
Do you think the UK government are showing honesty here - in that the rest of the world can see the honesty in our argument?
Sinn Fein was NEVER gonna take seats in existing (as opposed to theoretical) Dail. Until they did.
They were NEVER gonna sit at Stormont either. Until they did.
Obviously, SF will never take their seats at Westminster. Until they decide to.
Absentionism is an ideological strategy and political tactic NOT natural law or divine dogma.
What benefit would they get by changing that strategy though? That has not been explained. Preventing chaos over the NI Protocol? The chaos works in their favour if the DUP and the UK government look to be causing it.
New scapegoats ready for the public beating are civil servants with Johnson wanting to axe 91,000 jobs .
Savings will allegedly go into helping with the cost of living crisis . More pandering to the angry mob !
You can’t just fire people overnight so this is the latest pile of nonsense to dupe the plebs .
Savings will go towards paying the usual consultancy firms to do whatever it is the civil servants are currently doing.
Of course, there is One Weird Trick that could reduce Civil Service admin and staff requirements to pre-2016 levels. But it's the one that Boris doesn't want you to know about.
I think the main lesson the West should be taking from Ukraine to deter a future invasion of Taiwan is to arm them to the teeth.
That is one. In addition. How about investing in Taiwanese companies? Visiting the island on holiday? (It's got lovely beaches, and the climate of Florida. With a bit more rain). And a damn sight more history. And gently pointing out that there is only one China, but a serious dispute as to who it is at every and any opportunity.
The US will bleat a bit but will do nothing. It’s hardly going to let this impact our defence and security relationship and no trade deal is on the table anyway. Frankly, I also think some Eastern EU and Baltic states may moderate EU actions at the minute.
As ever though, what’s most likely is some good old fashioned last minute EU brinkmanship, aided by a U.S. nudge, and a deal done.
And what happens if the Tories' favourites kick off? They'll have to be bribed all over again.
Oh I wouldn’t start from here, and the DUP are way past the point that any U.K. Gvt should be telling them to piss off and grow up.
If Boris is 6 short of an overall majority after the next general election, he would lick Jeffrey Donaldson's shoes if it meant he got to stay in No 10. We all know that!
Six short, he wouldn't need a coalition partner, there would be no chance of a stable alternative.
Depends if SF took their seats or not, which is not now impossible if it made the difference between keeping the NIP or scrapping it
That’s rubbish HY. They will never take their seats under any circumstance. Not even if they didn’t have to swear in loyalty to Queen.
Do you think the UK government are showing honesty here - in that the rest of the world can see the honesty in our argument?
Sinn Fein was NEVER gonna take seats in existing (as opposed to theoretical) Dail. Until they did.
They were NEVER gonna sit at Stormont either. Until they did.
Obviously, SF will never take their seats at Westminster. Until they decide to.
Absentionism is an ideological strategy and political tactic NOT natural law or divine dogma.
Feeeble silly answer from usually smarter poster than this. Swearing loyalty to the British monarchy is a completely different type of hurdle for them. You mention ideology, how can any type of Republican do that anyway? It’s counter productive to the Republican ideology they stand for! And once you add all the Anglo Irish history to that, it’s an obvious impossibility.
The US will bleat a bit but will do nothing. It’s hardly going to let this impact our defence and security relationship and no trade deal is on the table anyway. Frankly, I also think some Eastern EU and Baltic states may moderate EU actions at the minute.
As ever though, what’s most likely is some good old fashioned last minute EU brinkmanship, aided by a U.S. nudge, and a deal done.
And what happens if the Tories' favourites kick off? They'll have to be bribed all over again.
Oh I wouldn’t start from here, and the DUP are way past the point that any U.K. Gvt should be telling them to piss off and grow up.
If Boris is 6 short of an overall majority after the next general election, he would lick Jeffrey Donaldson's shoes if it meant he got to stay in No 10. We all know that!
Six short, he wouldn't need a coalition partner, there would be no chance of a stable alternative.
Depends if SF took their seats or not, which is not now impossible if it made the difference between keeping the NIP or scrapping it
That’s rubbish HY. They will never take their seats under any circumstance. Not even if they didn’t have to swear in loyalty to Queen.
Do you think the UK government are showing honesty here - in that the rest of the world can see the honesty in our argument?
Sinn Fein was NEVER gonna take seats in existing (as opposed to theoretical) Dail. Until they did.
They were NEVER gonna sit at Stormont either. Until they did.
Obviously, SF will never take their seats at Westminster. Until they decide to.
Absentionism is an ideological strategy and political tactic NOT natural law or divine dogma.
Feeeble silly answer from usually smarter poster than this. Swearing loyalty to the British monarchy is a completely different type of hurdle for them. You mention ideology, how can any type of Republican do that anyway? It’s counter productive to the Republican ideology they stand for! And once you add all the Anglo Irish history to that, it’s an obvious impossibility.
Republicans manage it every election, they cross their fingers or make clear they are mouthing the words as a procedural formality. I'd agree that particular point is one they could overcome, if they wanted.
What I don't see, however, is for what reason they would ever come to see it as something worth doing. They seem to be getting on just fine without it.
I think the main lesson the West should be taking from Ukraine to deter a future invasion of Taiwan is to arm them to the teeth.
The main lesson we should be taking from Russia is not to put all your roubles into nuclear weapons systems that you cannot use. Boots on the ground matter.
On the Northern Ireland - Good Friday Agreement - Brexit Conundrum:
Might it be possible (following up on a notion by Leon that noted Hiberniophile) to designate Northern Ireland as a Special Trade Zone, with special rights within United Kingdom AND with the Republic of Ireland?
With gory details (such as NI goods ending up in France via RoI, and RoI in England) worked out via arrangements (as non-obtrusive as possible) lubricated as necessary by US-UK-EU funding. As it would be a win-win-win from their perspectives. AND for Ireland South AND North - Protestant, Catholic and None of the Above.
Plus setting a half-way positive example for Russians & etc.?
My occasional trolling of Ireland is merely that. In all seriousness I’ve always thought the obvious endpoint of Norn Ireland is co-sovereignty. A special place governed from London AND Dublin - and with plenty of autonomy. Allowing the Irish to claim their Ireland is United yet allowing the Unionists to say the Union is preserved.
It is already quite close to this in many respects. Passports, trade, sports - it’s all helpfully blurred
With special access to the UK and EU markets Ulster would prosper mightily. Becoming a highly desirable place to invest (signs of this already)
That has to get the endpoint. Neither side can “win” by defeating the other
Mail says Big Dog plans to sack 1000s of civil servants in order to deal with cost of living crisis.
Erm. WTF????
People are struggling to heat and eat whilst we have too many civil servants the country can’t afford right now. You must Get behind the most popular of populist policys unless you have something worthwhile to add!
New scapegoats ready for the public beating are civil servants with Johnson wanting to axe 91,000 jobs .
Savings will allegedly go into helping with the cost of living crisis . More pandering to the angry mob !
You can’t just fire people overnight so this is the latest pile of nonsense to dupe the plebs .
Savings will go towards paying the usual consultancy firms to do whatever it is the civil servants are currently doing.
I'm fairly sure you there are 90k civil servants you could fire where hardly anyone would miss them (eg Public Health England, or whatever its called this week - spent the last twenty years whinging about kids eating McDonalds, then was slightly less effective than a chocolate fireguard when an actual pandemic came along). The trouble is that the civil service will ensure that it's not those ones who get the chop, but instead a selection of key frontline roles which will demonstrate how vital they all are.
The only possible tactic for success I can see would be to have a systematic and brutal review of each area of the civil service with a view to the total abolition of parts of it, but somehow you have to avoid the civil service taking control of the reviewing process. That might just have been possible as a Dom/Gove project had Covid not happened; for all his faults Dom could spot civil service waste from space, but the civil service will run rings round the current bunch of halfwits.
On the Northern Ireland - Good Friday Agreement - Brexit Conundrum:
Might it be possible (following up on a notion by Leon that noted Hiberniophile) to designate Northern Ireland as a Special Trade Zone, with special rights within United Kingdom AND with the Republic of Ireland?
With gory details (such as NI goods ending up in France via RoI, and RoI in England) worked out via arrangements (as non-obtrusive as possible) lubricated as necessary by US-UK-EU funding. As it would be a win-win-win from their perspectives. AND for Ireland South AND North - Protestant, Catholic and None of the Above.
Plus setting a half-way positive example for Russians & etc.?
My occasional trolling of Ireland is merely that. In all seriousness I’ve always thought the obvious endpoint of Norn Ireland is co-sovereignty. A special place governed from London AND Dublin - and with plenty of autonomy. Allowing the Irish to claim their Ireland is United yet allowing the Unionists to say the Union is preserved.
It is already quite close to this in many respects. Passports, trade, sports - it’s all helpfully blurred
With special access to the UK and EU markets Ulster would prosper mightily. Becoming a highly desirable place to invest (signs of this already)
That has to get the endpoint. Neither side can “win” by defeating the other
That's were we are right now though. NI has the best of both worlds. Only one side seems anxious to take any action to disrupt it
New scapegoats ready for the public beating are civil servants with Johnson wanting to axe 91,000 jobs .
Savings will allegedly go into helping with the cost of living crisis . More pandering to the angry mob !
You can’t just fire people overnight so this is the latest pile of nonsense to dupe the plebs .
Savings will go towards paying the usual consultancy firms to do whatever it is the civil servants are currently doing.
The trouble is that the civil service will ensure that it's not those ones who get the chop, but instead a selection of key frontline roles which will demonstrate how vital they all are.
They'll also probably get rid of a load of admin roles, and be surprised when administration gets even worse.
Not that there has never been over staffing. Much chaff can and has been discarded before. But they've already decided on the numbers they want gone, it's just ideological.
I think the main lesson the West should be taking from Ukraine to deter a future invasion of Taiwan is to arm them to the teeth.
The main lesson we should be taking from Russia is not to put all your roubles into nuclear weapons systems that you cannot use. Boots on the ground matter.
Or, don't let the vast sums you spend on boots on the ground be syphoned off by middle ranking and senior officers into their own bank accounts.
New scapegoats ready for the public beating are civil servants with Johnson wanting to axe 91,000 jobs .
Savings will allegedly go into helping with the cost of living crisis . More pandering to the angry mob !
You can’t just fire people overnight so this is the latest pile of nonsense to dupe the plebs .
Savings will go towards paying the usual consultancy firms to do whatever it is the civil servants are currently doing.
I'm fairly sure you there are 90k civil servants you could fire where hardly anyone would miss them (eg Public Health England, or whatever its called this week - spent the last twenty years whinging about kids eating McDonalds, then was slightly less effective than a chocolate fireguard when an actual pandemic came along). The trouble is that the civil service will ensure that it's not those ones who get the chop, but instead a selection of key frontline roles which will demonstrate how vital they all are.
The only possible tactic for success I can see would be to have a systematic and brutal review of each area of the civil service with a view to the total abolition of parts of it, but somehow you have to avoid the civil service taking control of the reviewing process. That might just have been possible as a Dom/Gove project had Covid not happened; for all his faults Dom could spot civil service waste from space, but the civil service will run rings round the current bunch of halfwits.
My wife works for UKHSA and I think you would find it’s staffed by diligent, dedicated people doing their best. As ever some of the leadership of PHE let the side down. But the tar the entire organisation like that is just crass.
New scapegoats ready for the public beating are civil servants with Johnson wanting to axe 91,000 jobs .
Savings will allegedly go into helping with the cost of living crisis . More pandering to the angry mob !
You can’t just fire people overnight so this is the latest pile of nonsense to dupe the plebs .
Savings will go towards paying the usual consultancy firms to do whatever it is the civil servants are currently doing.
I'm fairly sure you there are 90k civil servants you could fire where hardly anyone would miss them (eg Public Health England, or whatever its called this week - spent the last twenty years whinging about kids eating McDonalds, then was slightly less effective than a chocolate fireguard when an actual pandemic came along). The trouble is that the civil service will ensure that it's not those ones who get the chop, but instead a selection of key frontline roles which will demonstrate how vital they all are.
The only possible tactic for success I can see would be to have a systematic and brutal review of each area of the civil service with a view to the total abolition of parts of it, but somehow you have to avoid the civil service taking control of the reviewing process. That might just have been possible as a Dom/Gove project had Covid not happened; for all his faults Dom could spot civil service waste from space, but the civil service will run rings round the current bunch of halfwits.
Governments have been railing against civil service waste for decades and yet here we are. Civil servants are axed and then it turns out they were important after all so we end up paying the big consultancy firms to do the same jobs less well. Public Health England (and other bodies) were warning about pandemics for years. It was the government that decided to do nothing, and Jeremy Hunt who buried the Exercise Cygnus report instead of stockpiling PPE.
The US will bleat a bit but will do nothing. It’s hardly going to let this impact our defence and security relationship and no trade deal is on the table anyway. Frankly, I also think some Eastern EU and Baltic states may moderate EU actions at the minute.
As ever though, what’s most likely is some good old fashioned last minute EU brinkmanship, aided by a U.S. nudge, and a deal done.
And what happens if the Tories' favourites kick off? They'll have to be bribed all over again.
Oh I wouldn’t start from here, and the DUP are way past the point that any U.K. Gvt should be telling them to piss off and grow up.
If Boris is 6 short of an overall majority after the next general election, he would lick Jeffrey Donaldson's shoes if it meant he got to stay in No 10. We all know that!
And stretch that elastic further. Eventually it snaps and you get a 1997. Alternatively, you could compromise with majority opinion. Of course that may leave you bereft of a couple of decades of moaning to come.
We already have, hence we won a majority in 2019 of 80. However if a majority is only possible again with the DUP Boris will do that too.
Eventually we likely will return to opposition and moaning without responsibility as Labour had done for the last decade and we did in the decade before that, however until that point the PM will do anything to stay in power
'An early highlight was Serbia's distinctly unsettling Konstrakta, who sat at a basin, washing her hands as she intoned: "What is the secret behind Meghan Markle's healthy hair? I think it is deep hydration."'
The US will bleat a bit but will do nothing. It’s hardly going to let this impact our defence and security relationship and no trade deal is on the table anyway. Frankly, I also think some Eastern EU and Baltic states may moderate EU actions at the minute.
As ever though, what’s most likely is some good old fashioned last minute EU brinkmanship, aided by a U.S. nudge, and a deal done.
And what happens if the Tories' favourites kick off? They'll have to be bribed all over again.
Oh I wouldn’t start from here, and the DUP are way past the point that any U.K. Gvt should be telling them to piss off and grow up.
If Boris is 6 short of an overall majority after the next general election, he would lick Jeffrey Donaldson's shoes if it meant he got to stay in No 10. We all know that!
And stretch that elastic further. Eventually it snaps and you get a 1997. Alternatively, you could compromise with majority opinion. Of course that may leave you bereft of a couple of decades of moaning to come.
We already have, hence we won a majority in 2019 of 80. However if a majority is only possible again with the DUP Boris will do that too.
Eventually we likely will return to opposition and moaning without responsibility as Labour had done for the last decade and we did in the decade before that, however until that point the PM will do anything to stay in power
Staying in power really is the be all and end all isn't it? Fair enough if it is. But what is the point of it doesn't advance your long term goals?
'An early highlight was Serbia's distinctly unsettling Konstrakta, who sat at a basin, washing her hands as she intoned: "What is the secret behind Meghan Markle's healthy hair? I think it is deep hydration."'
FWIW, Serious thinkers in the US seem more and more to be agreeing on two things in foreign policy: First, we really need to switch to more nuclear power. Second, we need to put away smaller quarrels to concentrate on defeating Putin. So, for example, some are suggesting we should make nice with MBS in Saudi Arabia and we should drop our sanctions against Venezuela.
A few are even suggesting working toward a truce with Iran. (I'm not sure that's possible.)
In the short run, get enough oil flowing to bankrupt Putin; in the long run, develop enough nuclear power to prevent the West from ever being challenged this way, again.
While the war continues in Ukraine, I don't expect the Northern Ireland problem to get much attention in the US -- nor do I think it should.
The US will bleat a bit but will do nothing. It’s hardly going to let this impact our defence and security relationship and no trade deal is on the table anyway. Frankly, I also think some Eastern EU and Baltic states may moderate EU actions at the minute.
As ever though, what’s most likely is some good old fashioned last minute EU brinkmanship, aided by a U.S. nudge, and a deal done.
And what happens if the Tories' favourites kick off? They'll have to be bribed all over again.
Oh I wouldn’t start from here, and the DUP are way past the point that any U.K. Gvt should be telling them to piss off and grow up.
If Boris is 6 short of an overall majority after the next general election, he would lick Jeffrey Donaldson's shoes if it meant he got to stay in No 10. We all know that!
And stretch that elastic further. Eventually it snaps and you get a 1997. Alternatively, you could compromise with majority opinion. Of course that may leave you bereft of a couple of decades of moaning to come.
We already have, hence we won a majority in 2019 of 80. However if a majority is only possible again with the DUP Boris will do that too.
Eventually we likely will return to opposition and moaning without responsibility as Labour had done for the last decade and we did in the decade before that, however until that point the PM will do anything to stay in power
Staying in power really is the be all and end all isn't it?
If you are not in power, you don’t get to shape the country in the way you want. Too often the hard left forget that. Being in power is a compromise. Blair knew that and presented a vision of Britain that most conservative voters could go with. At the moment the Tories have levelling up as their big thing, at the risk of losing ground in their more traditional heartlands. It’s something, even if likely to fail and be a lot less than it sounds. Labour has yet to bring forward its vision. I hope it does soon, as the country needs a change. I’d would be nice to be a change for a positive vision, not just no more of the Tories.
The US will bleat a bit but will do nothing. It’s hardly going to let this impact our defence and security relationship and no trade deal is on the table anyway. Frankly, I also think some Eastern EU and Baltic states may moderate EU actions at the minute.
As ever though, what’s most likely is some good old fashioned last minute EU brinkmanship, aided by a U.S. nudge, and a deal done.
And what happens if the Tories' favourites kick off? They'll have to be bribed all over again.
Oh I wouldn’t start from here, and the DUP are way past the point that any U.K. Gvt should be telling them to piss off and grow up.
If Boris is 6 short of an overall majority after the next general election, he would lick Jeffrey Donaldson's shoes if it meant he got to stay in No 10. We all know that!
And stretch that elastic further. Eventually it snaps and you get a 1997. Alternatively, you could compromise with majority opinion. Of course that may leave you bereft of a couple of decades of moaning to come.
We already have, hence we won a majority in 2019 of 80. However if a majority is only possible again with the DUP Boris will do that too.
Eventually we likely will return to opposition and moaning without responsibility as Labour had done for the last decade and we did in the decade before that, however until that point the PM will do anything to stay in power
Staying in power really is the be all and end all isn't it? Fair enough if it is. But what is the point of it doesn't advance your long term goals?
Opposition is sometimes more fun, it would be more fun being a Tory activist under Leader of the Opposition Rees Mogg than PM Hunt for instance. Many Labour activists had more fun under Leader of the Opposition Corbyn than they would under PM Starmer too but power means you can get things done
'With the UK government poised to table legislation next week which could revoke parts of the protocol, arrangements are being made for at least half a dozen representatives from the US Congress to fly to Europe for a series of meetings in Brussels, Dublin, London and Belfast.
The delegation will be headed by the influential chair of the ways and means committee, Richie Neal, which has significant power over future trade deals'
So much for those who didn;t think US politics would notice the UKG's abrogation of a treaty.
It's quite hilarious watching English Tories trying to bully the Irish, as they have done for centuries, only to discover that the Irish now have both the EU and the US on their side. 🍿🍿🍿
As long as there is no hard border in Ireland there is nothing for the US to complain about if the Irish Sea border is removed
Hardly taking back control of our borders is it though!
Either we have a border in the sea, a border on the land, or alignment with the EU.
Or a technical solution
Or none of the above.
No border in the sea, no border on the land, no alignment, no solution.
We have an open border where we aren't aligned, but the border remains open anyway.
Solves every issue. Except "integrity of the Single Market" but that's their concern, not ours, so let them come up with a solution.
They have a solution, but you're going to complain no end when they implement it.
Ooh, tough words.
Don't see anything backing it up though. Are they going to build a border on the border of Ireland? If no, bluff called.
I once did coke with Dave Gilmour. And used to occasionally drink with Syd Barrett’s last flatmate - Duggie Fields
Did my first mushrooms with Bez. That was some day, grandad
Hmmm. Since you are both British, I think it more likely you both did your first Vimto with Ali Bongo or Tommy Malet, depending on age
Can't remember my first Vimto. Was probably intravenous at birth. Remember my disgust at discovering it could be fizzy, mind. The Earth turned on its axis that day, my friend. And nowt was the same again. Reality wasn't solid anymore.
The only plausible path to keep the pressure on Russia while not crippling the global economy is to get oil prices down. And the only sustainable way to do this is to get the world’s largest “swing producer,” Saudi Arabia, as well as other gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, to increase production of oil.
U.S. oil production is expanding as fast as it can. There are other paths worth trying — such as easing the embargo on Venezuela and returning to the Iran nuclear deal — but the gulf states can easily expand production by millions of barrels a day and keep those supplies flowing well into the future. Yet, despite several entreaties by the United States, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have refused to significantly increase production.
And I have seen other serious people making similar arguments. (None of them have even mentioned Northern Ireland.)
FWIW, Serious thinkers in the US seem more and more to be agreeing on two things in foreign policy: First, we really need to switch to more nuclear power. Second, we need to put away smaller quarrels to concentrate on defeating Putin. So, for example, some are suggesting we should make nice with MBS in Saudi Arabia and we should drop our sanctions against Venezuela.
A few are even suggesting working toward a truce with Iran. (I'm not sure that's possible.)
In the short run, get enough oil flowing to bankrupt Putin; in the long run, develop enough nuclear power to prevent the West from ever being challenged this way, again.
While the war continues in Ukraine, I don't expect the Northern Ireland problem to get much attention in the US -- nor do I think it should.
We really need to switch to more nuclear power - like Iran, then?
Ukraine having so much nuclear power has been part of the problem.
New scapegoats ready for the public beating are civil servants with Johnson wanting to axe 91,000 jobs .
Savings will allegedly go into helping with the cost of living crisis . More pandering to the angry mob !
You can’t just fire people overnight so this is the latest pile of nonsense to dupe the plebs .
Savings will go towards paying the usual consultancy firms to do whatever it is the civil servants are currently doing.
I'm fairly sure you there are 90k civil servants you could fire where hardly anyone would miss them (eg Public Health England, or whatever its called this week - spent the last twenty years whinging about kids eating McDonalds, then was slightly less effective than a chocolate fireguard when an actual pandemic came along). The trouble is that the civil service will ensure that it's not those ones who get the chop, but instead a selection of key frontline roles which will demonstrate how vital they all are.
The only possible tactic for success I can see would be to have a systematic and brutal review of each area of the civil service with a view to the total abolition of parts of it, but somehow you have to avoid the civil service taking control of the reviewing process. That might just have been possible as a Dom/Gove project had Covid not happened; for all his faults Dom could spot civil service waste from space, but the civil service will run rings round the current bunch of halfwits.
My wife works for UKHSA and I think you would find it’s staffed by diligent, dedicated people doing their best. As ever some of the leadership of PHE let the side down. But the tar the entire organisation like that is just crass.
It could be staffed by archangels, but good people in a bad system will still end up wasted and the problem is that the sprawling behemothic civil service infrastructure will inevitably have self-interested leadership floating to the top.
He didn't tar the good people, he tarred quite accurately the system that ensures the good people are the first on the chopping block while the revolving door of jobs for those with the right connections never gets closed.
New scapegoats ready for the public beating are civil servants with Johnson wanting to axe 91,000 jobs .
Savings will allegedly go into helping with the cost of living crisis . More pandering to the angry mob !
You can’t just fire people overnight so this is the latest pile of nonsense to dupe the plebs .
“the country has too many civil servants right now, reducing the number will help struggling people heat and eat. Do you support this policy?”
Government met in Stoke today to show their thoughts and commitments are with people in run down areas neglected by other parties for decades. Go out on the streets of Stoke and ask the question above above and you will find it gets 100% support. Go to any food bank anywhere in the country and ask this question and you will find it gets 100% support.
New scapegoats ready for the public beating are civil servants with Johnson wanting to axe 91,000 jobs .
Savings will allegedly go into helping with the cost of living crisis . More pandering to the angry mob !
You can’t just fire people overnight so this is the latest pile of nonsense to dupe the plebs .
Savings will go towards paying the usual consultancy firms to do whatever it is the civil servants are currently doing.
I'm fairly sure you there are 90k civil servants you could fire where hardly anyone would miss them (eg Public Health England, or whatever its called this week - spent the last twenty years whinging about kids eating McDonalds, then was slightly less effective than a chocolate fireguard when an actual pandemic came along). The trouble is that the civil service will ensure that it's not those ones who get the chop, but instead a selection of key frontline roles which will demonstrate how vital they all are.
The only possible tactic for success I can see would be to have a systematic and brutal review of each area of the civil service with a view to the total abolition of parts of it, but somehow you have to avoid the civil service taking control of the reviewing process. That might just have been possible as a Dom/Gove project had Covid not happened; for all his faults Dom could spot civil service waste from space, but the civil service will run rings round the current bunch of halfwits.
My wife works for UKHSA and I think you would find it’s staffed by diligent, dedicated people doing their best. As ever some of the leadership of PHE let the side down. But the tar the entire organisation like that is just crass.
I think the point being made is that while they may do a good job, a lot of what they do is simply irrelevant and ultimately adds no value to the UK economy. It's like this scientific papers studying whether tigers prefer eating springbok or deer, I'm sure the people who write them are very smart and worked hard to research it, it's just that the research has little to no value.
It's not easy to hear for civil servants that their jobs are of low or no value, yet in a huge number of cases it's probably true. Their hard work is simply wasted and they may be better off in sir other sector. One of the reason the civil service always scores poorly on job satisfaction is because of this, they realise that there's not a lot of value and it is demoralising.
New scapegoats ready for the public beating are civil servants with Johnson wanting to axe 91,000 jobs .
Savings will allegedly go into helping with the cost of living crisis . More pandering to the angry mob !
You can’t just fire people overnight so this is the latest pile of nonsense to dupe the plebs .
Savings will go towards paying the usual consultancy firms to do whatever it is the civil servants are currently doing.
I'm fairly sure you there are 90k civil servants you could fire where hardly anyone would miss them (eg Public Health England, or whatever its called this week - spent the last twenty years whinging about kids eating McDonalds, then was slightly less effective than a chocolate fireguard when an actual pandemic came along). The trouble is that the civil service will ensure that it's not those ones who get the chop, but instead a selection of key frontline roles which will demonstrate how vital they all are.
The only possible tactic for success I can see would be to have a systematic and brutal review of each area of the civil service with a view to the total abolition of parts of it, but somehow you have to avoid the civil service taking control of the reviewing process. That might just have been possible as a Dom/Gove project had Covid not happened; for all his faults Dom could spot civil service waste from space, but the civil service will run rings round the current bunch of halfwits.
My wife works for UKHSA and I think you would find it’s staffed by diligent, dedicated people doing their best. As ever some of the leadership of PHE let the side down. But the tar the entire organisation like that is just crass.
It could be staffed by archangels, but good people in a bad system will still end up wasted and the problem is that the sprawling behemothic civil service infrastructure will inevitably have self-interested leadership floating to the top.
He didn't tar the good people, he tarred quite accurately the system that ensures the good people are the first on the chopping block while the revolving door of jobs for those with the right connections never gets closed.
PHE has already been reformed aiui.
Their usual disorganisation strategy is to reshuffle regions.
Max Keiser (afaict from his 100mph stream of consciousness) still believes. This is the cleansing fire that will get rid of the grifters and conmen seems to be his take.
On the Northern Ireland - Good Friday Agreement - Brexit Conundrum:
Might it be possible (following up on a notion by Leon that noted Hiberniophile) to designate Northern Ireland as a Special Trade Zone, with special rights within United Kingdom AND with the Republic of Ireland?
With gory details (such as NI goods ending up in France via RoI, and RoI in England) worked out via arrangements (as non-obtrusive as possible) lubricated as necessary by US-UK-EU funding. As it would be a win-win-win from their perspectives. AND for Ireland South AND North - Protestant, Catholic and None of the Above.
Plus setting a half-way positive example for Russians & etc.?
My occasional trolling of Ireland is merely that. In all seriousness I’ve always thought the obvious endpoint of Norn Ireland is co-sovereignty. A special place governed from London AND Dublin - and with plenty of autonomy. Allowing the Irish to claim their Ireland is United yet allowing the Unionists to say the Union is preserved.
It is already quite close to this in many respects. Passports, trade, sports - it’s all helpfully blurred
With special access to the UK and EU markets Ulster would prosper mightily. Becoming a highly desirable place to invest (signs of this already)
That has to get the endpoint. Neither side can “win” by defeating the other
Ideally a solution that we and Ireland can find and put forward and finally try and heal the very real consequences of our 13th century onwards incursions. One of the plays/books I studied for A level was Translations by Brian Friel , and one of the things that always struck me from that and stuck was the importance of language and the hideousness of anglicisation as a policy, it was intensely insipid. It's why I have found myself in heated arguments with people over Gaelic language in Scotland for example, it really should be preserved and supported imo. We owe it to the people of Northern Ireland to find the right solution and hopefully it can be done with Ireland and without the EU or anyone else being involved. This is an Isles issue needing good old Isles solutions. Or the hate and anger goes on and festers like a running sore forever.
Max Keiser (afaict from his 100mph stream of consciousness) still believes. This is the cleansing fire that will get rid of the grifters and conmen seems to be his take.
Sounds as if the government of El Salvador is in deep shit then:
Comments
Welcome to the machine
However... I don't think it would be particularly simple for us to join, and just inherit those agreements. The reality is that those who did deals with EFTA did so on the basis that it was four small rich countries, who were prodigious purchasers of products from around the world, and who would be unlikely to threaten any of their domestic industries. If the UK were to join, I don't think their free trade partners would just say 'yay' and let us cosign the treaties. On the contrary, I think they'd want us to enter into a long and boring negotiation process.
Mrs May understood the contradiction between the GFA and Brexit, and she tried for a compromise. It was rubbish, but she tried. Johnson on the other hand has stored up his own brand of trouble and either he doesn't understand Irish and Anglo-Irish history, or he doesn't give a ****. Johnson's faulty premise of Brexit in relation to the GFA will not just go away by pissing off the EU, Dublin or the Nationalists.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1523828151251517441
PS for some reason this is taking you to 37/41 in the thread. Scroll up to the top and start at 1/41
Savings will allegedly go into helping with the cost of living crisis . More pandering to the angry mob !
You can’t just fire people overnight so this is the latest pile of nonsense to dupe the plebs .
It was a perfectly sane suggestion and one that we should have pursued. I still think it is where we will end up at some point.
Edit. Glad to see you posting Richard. You do it too rarely these days.
US isn't getting any better.
It may be an idea to be a little careful now.
Just a thought.
The government and the DUP, being the tantrum throwers on this occasion, may protest that these are serious, weighty issues. Well, their petulant, histrionic whinges beg to differ.
It's theatre. The other side play their parts as well. But I'd hope most people were sick of it, even from their own side, years ago already.
Might it be possible (following up on a notion by Leon that noted Hiberniophile) to designate Northern Ireland as a Special Trade Zone, with special rights within United Kingdom AND with the Republic of Ireland?
With gory details (such as NI goods ending up in France via RoI, and RoI in England) worked out via arrangements (as non-obtrusive as possible) lubricated as necessary by US-UK-EU funding. As it would be a win-win-win from their perspectives. AND for Ireland South AND North - Protestant, Catholic and None of the Above.
Plus setting a half-way positive example for Russians & etc.?
We wanted to help!
But it the "pen- pushers" were incompetent, bone idle and malicious.
I for one admire the chutzpah.
No attempt to address the problem. But an industrial load of seeding for the harvesting of future blame.
Do you think the UK government are showing honesty here - in that the rest of the world can see the honesty in our argument?
Erm. WTF????
Eventually it snaps and you get a 1997.
Alternatively, you could compromise with majority opinion. Of course that may leave you bereft of a couple of decades of moaning to come.
From BBC
Finland has been told by Nato chiefs it could take up to a year for the country to join the military alliance.
The government in Helsinki had been promised the process of joining Nato would be “smooth and swift”.
But Finland’s Foreign Minister, Pekka Haavisto, told journalists that Nato’s Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, had said the ratification process could take between four and 12 months.
This is the period during which the legislatures of Nato’s 30 member states would give their formal support for Finland’s application.
Seems like a nice kid.
They were NEVER gonna sit at Stormont either. Until they did.
Obviously, SF will never take their seats at Westminster. Until they decide to.
Absentionism is an ideological strategy and political tactic NOT natural law or divine dogma.
In addition. How about investing in Taiwanese companies? Visiting the island on holiday? (It's got lovely beaches, and the climate of Florida. With a bit more rain). And a damn sight more history.
And gently pointing out that there is only one China, but a serious dispute as to who it is at every and any opportunity.
That was some day, grandad
What I don't see, however, is for what reason they would ever come to see it as something worth doing. They seem to be getting on just fine without it.
"Last time we played here was 1972, was anyone here at that one too"
A few hands go up.
"I am sure that more of you were here, just you can't remember..."
It is already quite close to this in many respects. Passports, trade, sports - it’s all helpfully blurred
With special access to the UK and EU markets Ulster would prosper mightily. Becoming a highly desirable place to invest (signs of this already)
That has to get the endpoint. Neither side can “win” by defeating the other
The only possible tactic for success I can see would be to have a systematic and brutal review of each area of the civil service with a view to the total abolition of parts of it, but somehow you have to avoid the civil service taking control of the reviewing process. That might just have been possible as a Dom/Gove project had Covid not happened; for all his faults Dom could spot civil service waste from space, but the civil service will run rings round the current bunch of halfwits.
Half a billion quid. Seems insane. But then Dark Side of the Moon remains probably the greatest single album ever made
Only one side seems anxious to take any action to disrupt it
Not that there has never been over staffing. Much chaff can and has been discarded before. But they've already decided on the numbers they want gone, it's just ideological.
Rob Reiner, Michael McKean, Christopher Guest And Harry Shearer Are Making Spinal Tap II
https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/rob-reiner-michael-mckean-christopher-guest-and-harry-shearer-are-making-spinal-tap-ii/
Eventually we likely will return to opposition and moaning without responsibility as Labour had done for the last decade and we did in the decade before that, however until that point the PM will do anything to stay in power
Shades of "Still Crazy" though?
'An early highlight was Serbia's distinctly unsettling Konstrakta, who sat at a basin, washing her hands as she intoned: "What is the secret behind Meghan Markle's healthy hair? I think it is deep hydration."'
Quite.
Fair enough if it is. But what is the point of it doesn't advance your long term goals?
A few are even suggesting working toward a truce with Iran. (I'm not sure that's possible.)
In the short run, get enough oil flowing to bankrupt Putin; in the long run, develop enough nuclear power to prevent the West from ever being challenged this way, again.
While the war continues in Ukraine, I don't expect the Northern Ireland problem to get much attention in the US -- nor do I think it should.
Perfection exceeding perfection.
Labour has yet to bring forward its vision. I hope it does soon, as the country needs a change. I’d would be nice to be a change for a positive vision, not just no more of the Tories.
Clearly the forthcoming tory leadership race matters more than the GFA.
When did the "me, me, me" generation completely take over public life?
Don't see anything backing it up though. Are they going to build a border on the border of Ireland? If no, bluff called.
Cryptocurrencies collapse after 'Black Wednesday' for blockchain
Instability plagues so-called 'stablecoins' with almost $200bn knocked off all crypto
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/12/collapse-cryptocurrencies-likened-run-banks-value-terra-luna/
"Ukraine has set a modern Russian navy logistics ship on fire in the Black Sea, according to Odesa's regional military administration.
Serhiy Bratchuk added that the vessel - the Vsevolod Bobrov - was damaged, but did not confirm the scale of the strike.
Ukraine said the ship was hit near Snake Island, the site of renewed fighting."
I rest my case, your honour.
Remember my disgust at discovering it could be fizzy, mind.
The Earth turned on its axis that day, my friend. And nowt was the same again. Reality wasn't solid anymore.
Has there ever been one?
Ukraine having so much nuclear power has been part of the problem.
He didn't tar the good people, he tarred quite accurately the system that ensures the good people are the first on the chopping block while the revolving door of jobs for those with the right connections never gets closed.
Just back from the "stock up the freezer" shop for the next few weeks.
Have we done the updated photos identifying destroyed armour etc at the Siverskyi Donets river crossing.
Here's a screenshot of one tweet showing 4 of the 8 pics:
The pics are here on 2 tweets:
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1524742847664173057
Government met in Stoke today to show their thoughts and commitments are with people in run down areas neglected by other parties for decades. Go out on the streets of Stoke and ask the question above above and you will find it gets 100% support. Go to any food bank anywhere in the country and ask this question and you will find it gets 100% support.
It's not easy to hear for civil servants that their jobs are of low or no value, yet in a huge number of cases it's probably true. Their hard work is simply wasted and they may be better off in sir other sector. One of the reason the civil service always scores poorly on job satisfaction is because of this, they realise that there's not a lot of value and it is demoralising.
Their usual disorganisation strategy is to reshuffle regions.
We owe it to the people of Northern Ireland to find the right solution and hopefully it can be done with Ireland and without the EU or anyone else being involved. This is an Isles issue needing good old Isles solutions.
Or the hate and anger goes on and festers like a running sore forever.
In a railway station.
Beat that.
https://twitter.com/business/status/1524835817608335363?t=i-OPWHvFUXf0piWAvBVGiw&s=19