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2 months after Rishi collapsed the CON leader market is static – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected and Labour has still not built up the consistent double digit poll leads needed to make Tory MPs remove Johnson, he is probably safe until the next general election. So the next Tory leader would either be PM once a re elected Johnson decides to go, or Leader of the Opposition

    “ Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected ”

    Whaaaaaaat? 😆

    The blue wall is in tatters. The red wall had chunks chomped out of it. It was far worse than all the “most serious” predictions.

    You said look at Swindon. Hard for Labour to retake in one go after Tory’s took two Labour seats they have never held before last year, but it’s a different story this year, Labour taking 3/9. An election you calling not as bad as expected revealed a sea change in UK politics if Tory’s hold their Johnson tight,
    Labour had just a 5% lead on NEV and on other predictions would not even have been largest party in a hung parliament.

    Labour failed to gain a single council in the Midlands and as you say the Conservatives held Swindon, a key town for marginal seats.

    Yes there were some bad Tory results in central London and in the posher parts of the Home Counties in terms of losses to the LDs but it certainly could have been worse and was good enough for Boris to hold on
    Wales says hello - shocking results against Drakeford

    You need to wake up and smell the coffee, but then you are a little Englander
    Au contraire! He loves Inverness, Antrim and Pembrokeshire. Chortle.

    It was FUDHY himself who foresaw the transmogrification of the now-defunct Conservative & Unionist Party into the “English Nationalist Party” (sic).
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,180
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected and Labour has still not built up the consistent double digit poll leads needed to make Tory MPs remove Johnson, he is probably safe until the next general election. So the next Tory leader would either be PM once a re elected Johnson decides to go, or Leader of the Opposition

    “ Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected ”

    Whaaaaaaat? 😆

    The blue wall is in tatters. The red wall had chunks chomped out of it. It was far worse than all the “most serious” predictions.

    You said look at Swindon. Hard for Labour to retake in one go after Tory’s took two Labour seats they have never held before last year, but it’s a different story this year, Labour taking 3/9. An election you calling not as bad as expected revealed a sea change in UK politics if Tory’s hold their Johnson tight,
    I assume you are too young to remember mid term effects and swing back? This is NOT a prediction, but it is exceeding common to see governments do poorly in local elections in the middle of parliaments only to do far better in the next general election. Weirdly voters often vote differently in local elections to nationally.
    Yes but. Tbf she was only responding to the claim that they weren't as bad as expected.
    They were worse.
    Were they? I certainly expected them to get whacked, and they did. I’d argue labours relatively poor performance in England was the most significant thing, either that or the Lib Dem resurgence.
    Almost 500 losses? That wasn't widely predicted.
    Then maybe it should have been? They’ve had negative press for 6 months over party gate and now the cost of living crisis kicking in too.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Nationalists have been smelling victory since I was a teenager in the 1950s living in Berwick and it will always elude them
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected and Labour has still not built up the consistent double digit poll leads needed to make Tory MPs remove Johnson, he is probably safe until the next general election. So the next Tory leader would either be PM once a re elected Johnson decides to go, or Leader of the Opposition

    “ Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected ”

    Whaaaaaaat? 😆

    The blue wall is in tatters. The red wall had chunks chomped out of it. It was far worse than all the “most serious” predictions.

    You said look at Swindon. Hard for Labour to retake in one go after Tory’s took two Labour seats they have never held before last year, but it’s a different story this year, Labour taking 3/9. An election you calling not as bad as expected revealed a sea change in UK politics if Tory’s hold their Johnson tight,
    Labour had just a 5% lead on NEV and on other predictions would not even have been largest party in a hung parliament.

    Labour failed to gain a single council in the Midlands and as you say the Conservatives held Swindon, a key town for marginal seats.

    Yes there were some bad Tory results in central London and in the posher parts of the Home Counties in terms of losses to the LDs but it certainly could have been worse and was good enough for Boris to hold on
    Wales says hello - shocking results against Drakeford

    You need to wake up and smell the coffee, but then you are a little Englander
    Au contraire! He loves Inverness, Antrim and Pembrokeshire. Chortle.

    It was FUDHY himself who foresaw the transmogrification of the now-defunct Conservative & Unionist Party into the “English Nationalist Party” (sic).
    There is a UK wide Tory government for NI, Scotland and Wales as much as England and will be until the next general election
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected and Labour has still not built up the consistent double digit poll leads needed to make Tory MPs remove Johnson, he is probably safe until the next general election. So the next Tory leader would either be PM once a re elected Johnson decides to go, or Leader of the Opposition

    “ Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected ”

    Whaaaaaaat? 😆

    The blue wall is in tatters. The red wall had chunks chomped out of it. It was far worse than all the “most serious” predictions.

    You said look at Swindon. Hard for Labour to retake in one go after Tory’s took two Labour seats they have never held before last year, but it’s a different story this year, Labour taking 3/9. An election you calling not as bad as expected revealed a sea change in UK politics if Tory’s hold their Johnson tight,
    I assume you are too young to remember mid term effects and swing back? This is NOT a prediction, but it is exceeding common to see governments do poorly in local elections in the middle of parliaments only to do far better in the next general election. Weirdly voters often vote differently in local elections to nationally.
    Yes but. Tbf she was only responding to the claim that they weren't as bad as expected.
    They were worse.
    Were they? I certainly expected them to get whacked, and they did. I’d argue labours relatively poor performance in England was the most significant thing, either that or the Lib Dem resurgence.
    I will concede Turbo, the results did not point anywhere near to a Labour Majority at the next GE. the next General election isn’t about a Labour majority, though? Labour majority isn’t really the right measurement from this election or any polls or election in the next two years is it? Last weeks election educated us that without some degree of swing back the Tories currently on course not only to lose majority to Labour and Libdems gains, but by some way, maybe not even ahead of Labour. It also revealed a huge anti Tory vote out there, that if coordinated could make it even worse for the Tory’s in an unpredictable way.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,289
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected and Labour has still not built up the consistent double digit poll leads needed to make Tory MPs remove Johnson, he is probably safe until the next general election. So the next Tory leader would either be PM once a re elected Johnson decides to go, or Leader of the Opposition

    “ Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected ”

    Whaaaaaaat? 😆

    The blue wall is in tatters. The red wall had chunks chomped out of it. It was far worse than all the “most serious” predictions.

    You said look at Swindon. Hard for Labour to retake in one go after Tory’s took two Labour seats they have never held before last year, but it’s a different story this year, Labour taking 3/9. An election you calling not as bad as expected revealed a sea change in UK politics if Tory’s hold their Johnson tight,
    Labour had just a 5% lead on NEV and on other predictions would not even have been largest party in a hung parliament.

    Labour failed to gain a single council in the Midlands and as you say the Conservatives held Swindon, a key town for marginal seats.

    Yes there were some bad Tory results in central London and in the posher parts of the Home Counties in terms of losses to the LDs but it certainly could have been worse and was good enough for Boris to hold on
    Wales says hello - shocking results against Drakeford

    You need to wake up and smell the coffee, but then you are a little Englander
    Wales has never voted anything but Labour for 100 years in a general election, even in 2019 Labour still won Wales despite the big Tory majority UK wide
    Your dismissal of the loss of 86 conservative councillors is shocking and betrays them

    You know more than anyone the work they put in to be elected

    Shame on you
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,713
    edited May 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected and Labour has still not built up the consistent double digit poll leads needed to make Tory MPs remove Johnson, he is probably safe until the next general election. So the next Tory leader would either be PM once a re elected Johnson decides to go, or Leader of the Opposition

    “ Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected ”

    Whaaaaaaat? 😆

    The blue wall is in tatters. The red wall had chunks chomped out of it. It was far worse than all the “most serious” predictions.

    You said look at Swindon. Hard for Labour to retake in one go after Tory’s took two Labour seats they have never held before last year, but it’s a different story this year, Labour taking 3/9. An election you calling not as bad as expected revealed a sea change in UK politics if Tory’s hold their Johnson tight,
    Labour had just a 5% lead on NEV and on other predictions would not even have been largest party in a hung parliament.

    Labour failed to gain a single council in the Midlands and as you say the Conservatives held Swindon, a key town for marginal seats.

    Yes there were some bad Tory results in central London and in the posher parts of the Home Counties in terms of losses to the LDs but it certainly could have been worse and was good enough for Boris to hold on
    Wales says hello - shocking results against Drakeford

    You need to wake up and smell the coffee, but then you are a little Englander
    Au contraire! He loves Inverness, Antrim and Pembrokeshire. Chortle.

    It was FUDHY himself who foresaw the transmogrification of the now-defunct Conservative & Unionist Party into the “English Nationalist Party” (sic).
    Did he? I missed that, if he used those words.

    (Still shaking my head about that Angus Tory councillor and his Twatter security. J.Clerk Maxwell he ain't on that evidence.)
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,964

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected and Labour has still not built up the consistent double digit poll leads needed to make Tory MPs remove Johnson, he is probably safe until the next general election. So the next Tory leader would either be PM once a re elected Johnson decides to go, or Leader of the Opposition

    “ Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected ”

    Whaaaaaaat? 😆

    The blue wall is in tatters. The red wall had chunks chomped out of it. It was far worse than all the “most serious” predictions.

    You said look at Swindon. Hard for Labour to retake in one go after Tory’s took two Labour seats they have never held before last year, but it’s a different story this year, Labour taking 3/9. An election you calling not as bad as expected revealed a sea change in UK politics if Tory’s hold their Johnson tight,
    I assume you are too young to remember mid term effects and swing back? This is NOT a prediction, but it is exceeding common to see governments do poorly in local elections in the middle of parliaments only to do far better in the next general election. Weirdly voters often vote differently in local elections to nationally.
    Yes but. Tbf she was only responding to the claim that they weren't as bad as expected.
    They were worse.
    Were they? I certainly expected them to get whacked, and they did. I’d argue labours relatively poor performance in England was the most significant thing, either that or the Lib Dem resurgence.
    Almost 500 losses? That wasn't widely predicted.
    Then maybe it should have been? They’ve had negative press for 6 months over party gate and now the cost of living crisis kicking in too.
    Well perhaps. But I didn't pick it. Nor did many others.
    Tory MP'S said they'd wait to see until the locals.
    They were on the horrendous end. Yet they choose not to act.
    One can only assume they are wilfully blind or were disingenuous.
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,796
    https://www.capturepolitics.co.uk/post/greens-win-the-battles-labour-wins-the-war-hbc22-result-analysis

    Interesting analysis of the Hastings Council election results. The bigger story is that it looks like the Conservative party are declining in terms of share of the vote, losing ground to labour and the green party. Doesn't bode well for the next GE.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,432
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected and Labour has still not built up the consistent double digit poll leads needed to make Tory MPs remove Johnson, he is probably safe until the next general election. So the next Tory leader would either be PM once a re elected Johnson decides to go, or Leader of the Opposition

    “ Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected ”

    Whaaaaaaat? 😆

    The blue wall is in tatters. The red wall had chunks chomped out of it. It was far worse than all the “most serious” predictions.

    You said look at Swindon. Hard for Labour to retake in one go after Tory’s took two Labour seats they have never held before last year, but it’s a different story this year, Labour taking 3/9. An election you calling not as bad as expected revealed a sea change in UK politics if Tory’s hold their Johnson tight,
    I assume you are too young to remember mid term effects and swing back? This is NOT a prediction, but it is exceeding common to see governments do poorly in local elections in the middle of parliaments only to do far better in the next general election. Weirdly voters often vote differently in local elections to nationally.
    Yes but. Tbf she was only responding to the claim that they weren't as bad as expected.
    They were worse.
    Were they? I certainly expected them to get whacked, and they did. I’d argue labours relatively poor performance in England was the most significant thing, either that or the Lib Dem resurgence.
    Almost 500 losses? That wasn't widely predicted.
    Once the Lib-Con battleground opened up (biased towards shire districts with fewer voters per ward), a very large number of seats were available to change hands. So the 500 losses is a bit showy, but the sign of a shift in the tectonic plates that ought to really worry the Conservatives.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,713

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected and Labour has still not built up the consistent double digit poll leads needed to make Tory MPs remove Johnson, he is probably safe until the next general election. So the next Tory leader would either be PM once a re elected Johnson decides to go, or Leader of the Opposition

    “ Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected ”

    Whaaaaaaat? 😆

    The blue wall is in tatters. The red wall had chunks chomped out of it. It was far worse than all the “most serious” predictions.

    You said look at Swindon. Hard for Labour to retake in one go after Tory’s took two Labour seats they have never held before last year, but it’s a different story this year, Labour taking 3/9. An election you calling not as bad as expected revealed a sea change in UK politics if Tory’s hold their Johnson tight,
    Labour had just a 5% lead on NEV and on other predictions would not even have been largest party in a hung parliament.

    Labour failed to gain a single council in the Midlands and as you say the Conservatives held Swindon, a key town for marginal seats.

    Yes there were some bad Tory results in central London and in the posher parts of the Home Counties in terms of losses to the LDs but it certainly could have been worse and was good enough for Boris to hold on
    Wales says hello - shocking results against Drakeford

    You need to wake up and smell the coffee, but then you are a little Englander
    Wales has never voted anything but Labour for 100 years in a general election, even in 2019 Labour still won Wales despite the big Tory majority UK wide
    Your dismissal of the loss of 86 conservative councillors is shocking and betrays them

    You know more than anyone the work they put in to be elected

    Shame on you
    Unfair. He did vote for PC when he had the chance.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926

    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected

    They were worse


    Conservative disaster, Labour disappointment... sums things up reasonably well. Labour would have hoped to do better than they did.

    However, some of the losses were in places where they could afford to lose a few votes (the Lab to Green switches in inner London for example) and a fair few of the gains were in places where they can swing seats in their favour, like Southampton.
    Underwhelming for Labour, a triumph for the Lib Dems and a disaster for the Tories
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected and Labour has still not built up the consistent double digit poll leads needed to make Tory MPs remove Johnson, he is probably safe until the next general election. So the next Tory leader would either be PM once a re elected Johnson decides to go, or Leader of the Opposition

    “ Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected ”

    Whaaaaaaat? 😆

    The blue wall is in tatters. The red wall had chunks chomped out of it. It was far worse than all the “most serious” predictions.

    You said look at Swindon. Hard for Labour to retake in one go after Tory’s took two Labour seats they have never held before last year, but it’s a different story this year, Labour taking 3/9. An election you calling not as bad as expected revealed a sea change in UK politics if Tory’s hold their Johnson tight,
    I assume you are too young to remember mid term effects and swing back? This is NOT a prediction, but it is exceeding common to see governments do poorly in local elections in the middle of parliaments only to do far better in the next general election. Weirdly voters often vote differently in local elections to nationally.
    Yes but. Tbf she was only responding to the claim that they weren't as bad as expected.
    They were worse.
    Were they? I certainly expected them to get whacked, and they did. I’d argue labours relatively poor performance in England was the most significant thing, either that or the Lib Dem resurgence.
    Almost 500 losses? That wasn't widely predicted.
    Then maybe it should have been? They’ve had negative press for 6 months over party gate and now the cost of living crisis kicking in too.
    But it wasn’t really that sort of territory for a huge losses night. Not all local election territory is the same. Hence the thresher Curtice measurement posted earlier in thread and elsewhere.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,964
    The goal difference is beginning to suggest City may even be able to lose one and still take it.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,289

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Nationalists have been smelling victory since I was a teenager in the 1950s living in Berwick and it will always elude them
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    72 years is not complacency and it is not going to happen
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,289
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected and Labour has still not built up the consistent double digit poll leads needed to make Tory MPs remove Johnson, he is probably safe until the next general election. So the next Tory leader would either be PM once a re elected Johnson decides to go, or Leader of the Opposition

    “ Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected ”

    Whaaaaaaat? 😆

    The blue wall is in tatters. The red wall had chunks chomped out of it. It was far worse than all the “most serious” predictions.

    You said look at Swindon. Hard for Labour to retake in one go after Tory’s took two Labour seats they have never held before last year, but it’s a different story this year, Labour taking 3/9. An election you calling not as bad as expected revealed a sea change in UK politics if Tory’s hold their Johnson tight,
    Labour had just a 5% lead on NEV and on other predictions would not even have been largest party in a hung parliament.

    Labour failed to gain a single council in the Midlands and as you say the Conservatives held Swindon, a key town for marginal seats.

    Yes there were some bad Tory results in central London and in the posher parts of the Home Counties in terms of losses to the LDs but it certainly could have been worse and was good enough for Boris to hold on
    Wales says hello - shocking results against Drakeford

    You need to wake up and smell the coffee, but then you are a little Englander
    Au contraire! He loves Inverness, Antrim and Pembrokeshire. Chortle.

    It was FUDHY himself who foresaw the transmogrification of the now-defunct Conservative & Unionist Party into the “English Nationalist Party” (sic).
    There is a UK wide Tory government for NI, Scotland and Wales as much as England and will be until the next general election
    Why do you care, you are a little Englander
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Last eleven elections:

    Scots 11
    BritNats 0
    And the one that actually counted? Scotland = bottler nation. Bunch of whining losers.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667
    dixiedean said:

    The goal difference is beginning to suggest City may even be able to lose one and still take it.

    Er.. at six goals it's very likely that City could lose one and still win it.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited May 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected and Labour has still not built up the consistent double digit poll leads needed to make Tory MPs remove Johnson, he is probably safe until the next general election. So the next Tory leader would either be PM once a re elected Johnson decides to go, or Leader of the Opposition

    “ Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected ”

    Whaaaaaaat? 😆

    The blue wall is in tatters. The red wall had chunks chomped out of it. It was far worse than all the “most serious” predictions.

    You said look at Swindon. Hard for Labour to retake in one go after Tory’s took two Labour seats they have never held before last year, but it’s a different story this year, Labour taking 3/9. An election you calling not as bad as expected revealed a sea change in UK politics if Tory’s hold their Johnson tight,
    Labour had just a 5% lead on NEV and on other predictions would not even have been largest party in a hung parliament.

    Labour failed to gain a single council in the Midlands and as you say the Conservatives held Swindon, a key town for marginal seats.

    Yes there were some bad Tory results in central London and in the posher parts of the Home Counties in terms of losses to the LDs but it certainly could have been worse and was good enough for Boris to hold on
    Wales says hello - shocking results against Drakeford

    You need to wake up and smell the coffee, but then you are a little Englander
    Wales has never voted anything but Labour for 100 years in a general election, even in 2019 Labour still won Wales despite the big Tory majority UK wide
    That’s one way of spinning it. The facts though, any bounce Tory’s have enjoyed post Brexit shrunk away in Wales this time, in Tory to Labour transfer. And on quite a large scale.

    You havn’t spoken Somerset yet. If you dismiss it as a protest vote, what are they protesting about?
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited May 2022

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Nationalists have been smelling victory since I was a teenager in the 1950s living in Berwick and it will always elude them
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    72 years is not complacency and it is not going to happen
    Unionist confidence would be a bit more convincing if you weren’t feart of the referendum. Gordon Brown is right: Boris Johnson is playing into the Scots’ hands.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Last eleven elections:

    Scots 11
    BritNats 0
    And the one that actually counted? Scotland = bottler nation. Bunch of whining losers.
    Funny how all the whining comes from the “winners” (ahem).
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,289

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Nationalists have been smelling victory since I was a teenager in the 1950s living in Berwick and it will always elude them
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    72 years is not complacency and it is not going to happen
    Unionist confidence would be a bit more convincing if you weren’t feart of the referendum. Gordon Brown is right: Boris Johnson is playing into the Scot’s’ hands.
    I am happy for indyref2 to take place, pity Nicola is not
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Nationalists have been smelling victory since I was a teenager in the 1950s living in Berwick and it will always elude them
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    72 years is not complacency and it is not going to happen
    Unionist confidence would be a bit more convincing if you weren’t feart of the referendum. Gordon Brown is right: Boris Johnson is playing into the Scot’s’ hands.
    I am happy for indyref2 to take place, pity Nicola is not
    Yawn.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,058

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Nationalists have been smelling victory since I was a teenager in the 1950s living in Berwick and it will always elude them
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    72 years is not complacency and it is not going to happen
    Unionist confidence would be a bit more convincing if you weren’t feart of the referendum. Gordon Brown is right: Boris Johnson is playing into the Scot’s’ hands.
    Is that the same Gordon Brown who killed nationalism stone dead with devolution?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,289

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Nationalists have been smelling victory since I was a teenager in the 1950s living in Berwick and it will always elude them
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    72 years is not complacency and it is not going to happen
    Unionist confidence would be a bit more convincing if you weren’t feart of the referendum. Gordon Brown is right: Boris Johnson is playing into the Scot’s’ hands.
    I am happy for indyref2 to take place, pity Nicola is not
    Yawn.
    No response then
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667
    darkage said:

    https://www.capturepolitics.co.uk/post/greens-win-the-battles-labour-wins-the-war-hbc22-result-analysis

    Interesting analysis of the Hastings Council election results. The bigger story is that it looks like the Conservative party are declining in terms of share of the vote, losing ground to labour and the green party. Doesn't bode well for the next GE.

    Seems to bode very well for the next GE to me! ;-)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Nationalists have been smelling victory since I was a teenager in the 1950s living in Berwick and it will always elude them
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    72 years is not complacency and it is not going to happen
    Unionist confidence would be a bit more convincing if you weren’t feart of the referendum. Gordon Brown is right: Boris Johnson is playing into the Scot’s’ hands.
    Referendums are unpredictable, see Brexit, we had a once in a generation referendum in 2014 when Scots decided to stay in the UK and that decision is final
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,180

    darkage said:

    https://www.capturepolitics.co.uk/post/greens-win-the-battles-labour-wins-the-war-hbc22-result-analysis

    Interesting analysis of the Hastings Council election results. The bigger story is that it looks like the Conservative party are declining in terms of share of the vote, losing ground to labour and the green party. Doesn't bode well for the next GE.

    Seems to bode very well for the next GE to me! ;-)
    Well quite! Kinda depends on what you want the outcome to be...
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Nationalists have been smelling victory since I was a teenager in the 1950s living in Berwick and it will always elude them
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    72 years is not complacency and it is not going to happen
    Unionist confidence would be a bit more convincing if you weren’t feart of the referendum. Gordon Brown is right: Boris Johnson is playing into the Scot’s’ hands.
    Is that the same Gordon Brown who killed nationalism stone dead with devolution?
    You’re thinking of George Robertson.

    Gordon Brown was the bloke who drafted The Vow signed by those geniuses David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Last eleven elections:

    Scots 11
    BritNats 0
    And the one that actually counted? Scotland = bottler nation. Bunch of whining losers.
    Funny how all the whining comes from the “winners” (ahem).
    Nah, as I've said, no one here gives a single sandwich fuck about Scotland. You voted to stay in the Union. Deal with it. When the time comes again, you'll vote to stay again because subsidies and bribes from the English taxpayer are clearly more important than freedom for Scottish people.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    edited May 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected and Labour has still not built up the consistent double digit poll leads needed to make Tory MPs remove Johnson, he is probably safe until the next general election. So the next Tory leader would either be PM once a re elected Johnson decides to go, or Leader of the Opposition

    “ Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected ”

    Whaaaaaaat? 😆

    The blue wall is in tatters. The red wall had chunks chomped out of it. It was far worse than all the “most serious” predictions.

    You said look at Swindon. Hard for Labour to retake in one go after Tory’s took two Labour seats they have never held before last year, but it’s a different story this year, Labour taking 3/9. An election you calling not as bad as expected revealed a sea change in UK politics if Tory’s hold their Johnson tight,
    Labour had just a 5% lead on NEV and on other predictions would not even have been largest party in a hung parliament.

    Labour failed to gain a single council in the Midlands and as you say the Conservatives held Swindon, a key town for marginal seats.

    Yes there were some bad Tory results in central London and in the posher parts of the Home Counties in terms of losses to the LDs but it certainly could have been worse and was good enough for Boris to hold on
    Wales says hello - shocking results against Drakeford

    You need to wake up and smell the coffee, but then you are a little Englander
    Wales has never voted anything but Labour for 100 years in a general election, even in 2019 Labour still won Wales despite the big Tory majority UK wide
    Your dismissal of the loss of 86 conservative councillors is shocking and betrays them

    You know more than anyone the work they put in to be elected

    Shame on you
    I know as I campaigned for them to be re elected when you did not even vote Conservative in the local elections, so don't go lecturing me about betraying Tory councillors.

    In 1995 the Tories were left with just 42 councillors in Wales compared to 111 now, Major still survived until the next general election as will Boris
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,713

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Nationalists have been smelling victory since I was a teenager in the 1950s living in Berwick and it will always elude them
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    72 years is not complacency and it is not going to happen
    Unionist confidence would be a bit more convincing if you weren’t feart of the referendum. Gordon Brown is right: Boris Johnson is playing into the Scot’s’ hands.
    Is that the same Gordon Brown who killed nationalism stone dead with devolution?
    No. George Robertson was the one with the obiter dictum.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Nationalists have been smelling victory since I was a teenager in the 1950s living in Berwick and it will always elude them
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    72 years is not complacency and it is not going to happen
    Unionist confidence would be a bit more convincing if you weren’t feart of the referendum. Gordon Brown is right: Boris Johnson is playing into the Scot’s’ hands.
    Referendums are unpredictable, see Brexit, we had a once in a generation referendum in 2014 when Scots decided to stay in the UK and that decision is final
    If England wants to change Scotland’s status to that of an English colony then the honest thing to do would be to print that on ballot papers and put the question to the electorate.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,180
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Last eleven elections:

    Scots 11
    BritNats 0
    And the one that actually counted? Scotland = bottler nation. Bunch of whining losers.
    Funny how all the whining comes from the “winners” (ahem).
    Nah, as I've said, no one here gives a single sandwich fuck about Scotland. You voted to stay in the Union. Deal with it. When the time comes again, you'll vote to stay again because subsidies and bribes from the English taxpayer are clearly more important than freedom for Scottish people.
    He won’t, because like all sensible Scots he lives anywhere but Scotland...
    (For the avoidance of any doubt, that was a joke...)
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,964
    edited May 2022
    The other point is that the Tories are pointing to areas they went forward in. Such as Newcastle-under-Lyme, Nuneaton and Hartlepool.
    That's all very creditable. But they already hold those places in Westminster.
    They went badly backwards in a lot of other areas they need to hold. Cumbria 5 seats, Somerset 5, Barnet 3. West Yorkshire and Wales., cba but a fair few. Surrey all 10.
    Those begin to add up.
    And yes, there's swingback and mid-terms. But hands up who thinks it's going to improve any time soon.
    An 80 majority is super tough to overturn in one go. But it's their efficiency of vote which seems to be wearing off. The Tories maxxed out on it since 2015.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,289
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected and Labour has still not built up the consistent double digit poll leads needed to make Tory MPs remove Johnson, he is probably safe until the next general election. So the next Tory leader would either be PM once a re elected Johnson decides to go, or Leader of the Opposition

    “ Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected ”

    Whaaaaaaat? 😆

    The blue wall is in tatters. The red wall had chunks chomped out of it. It was far worse than all the “most serious” predictions.

    You said look at Swindon. Hard for Labour to retake in one go after Tory’s took two Labour seats they have never held before last year, but it’s a different story this year, Labour taking 3/9. An election you calling not as bad as expected revealed a sea change in UK politics if Tory’s hold their Johnson tight,
    Labour had just a 5% lead on NEV and on other predictions would not even have been largest party in a hung parliament.

    Labour failed to gain a single council in the Midlands and as you say the Conservatives held Swindon, a key town for marginal seats.

    Yes there were some bad Tory results in central London and in the posher parts of the Home Counties in terms of losses to the LDs but it certainly could have been worse and was good enough for Boris to hold on
    Wales says hello - shocking results against Drakeford

    You need to wake up and smell the coffee, but then you are a little Englander
    Wales has never voted anything but Labour for 100 years in a general election, even in 2019 Labour still won Wales despite the big Tory majority UK wide
    Your dismissal of the loss of 86 conservative councillors is shocking and betrays them

    You know more than anyone the work they put in to be elected

    Shame on you
    I know as I campaigned for them to be re elected when you did not even vote Conservative in the local elections, so don't go lecturing me about betraying Tory councillors.

    In 1995 the Tories were left with just 42 councillors in Wales compared to 111 now, Major still survived as will Boris until the next general election now
    I am not a member of the conservative party, but of course I can criticise you and your complacency and frankly ridiculous views
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,938
    Oh, fuck...

    Exclusive:

    Attorney-General has approved the scrapping of large parts of the NI Protocol

    Suella Braverman has told PM & senior ministers that EU is undermining Good Friday Agreement by creating trade barrier & fuelling civil unrest


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-can-rip-up-northern-ireland-protocol-attorney-general-rules-3xmcv8ws8
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,525
    A piece by Lindsey Hilsum C4 News on soldiers' bodies being stored by Ukraine that the Russian Government does not want to talk about.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VM5nyGhBA1g
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected

    They were worse


    Conservative disaster, Labour disappointment... sums things up reasonably well. Labour would have hoped to do better than they did.

    However, some of the losses were in places where they could afford to lose a few votes (the Lab to Green switches in inner London for example) and a fair few of the gains were in places where they can swing seats in their favour, like Southampton.
    The loss of Hull is a fantastic example, big bad news story suggesting Labour having a bad night. But it’s still a Labour MP after next election.

    I havn’t seen a chart of how many seats Labour won, and who from, and who they then lost seats too for the headline change figure, is there one? If they took a lot of Seats off Tory’s, and lost others not to Tory’s mainly but greens, libdems and local independents, that would be indicative of the change hidden there.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540
    I hesitate to say this, but is it just possible that Labour did particularly well in Wales because Drakeford is quite popular? His rather dour, understated yet calm and measured approach (including his response to Covid) seems to have gone down rather well.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Last eleven elections:

    Scots 11
    BritNats 0
    And the one that actually counted? Scotland = bottler nation. Bunch of whining losers.
    Funny how all the whining comes from the “winners” (ahem).
    Nah, as I've said, no one here gives a single sandwich fuck about Scotland. You voted to stay in the Union. Deal with it. When the time comes again, you'll vote to stay again because subsidies and bribes from the English taxpayer are clearly more important than freedom for Scottish people.
    I love the smell of Unionist transactionalism in the morning.

    When did BritNats lose their spunk? It’s all “subsidies and bribes”. Would it not be wiser to try to make the Union attractive? At the moment it stinks to high heaven.

    Be pleasant to Scots and they might want to stay. Just a piece of friendly advice.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,731
    edited May 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Oh, fuck...

    Exclusive:

    Attorney-General has approved the scrapping of large parts of the NI Protocol

    Suella Braverman has told PM & senior ministers that EU is undermining Good Friday Agreement by creating trade barrier & fuelling civil unrest


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-can-rip-up-northern-ireland-protocol-attorney-general-rules-3xmcv8ws8

    I really struggle with how the government can pretend to be so angry about an agreement it itself signed up to. I don't even agree with the EU when they pretend agreements can never be altered - and then alter them - or that activating mechanisms included within agreements for when there are disputes is inherently wrong, but their rhetoric is firmly on the side of believing that there is no way the protocol could ever have worked, which just makes them look like fools.

    I'm sure Braverman took a careful legal view via the established principle of whatever Boris wants being acceptable.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,213

    Jack Detsch
    @JackDetsch
    ·
    2h
    NEW: China is increasingly embarrassed by Russia's war in Ukraine, Britain's Defense Secretary said on Tuesday.

    After the damage Putin has caused in Ukraine: “How many world leaders are going to be taking Putin on line two?” Ben Wallace told reporters.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,180
    dixiedean said:

    The other point is that the Tories are pointing to areas they went forward in. Such as Newcastle-under-Lyme, Nuneaton and Hartlepool.
    That's all very creditable. But they already hold those places in Westminster.
    They went badly backwards in a lot of other areas they need to hold. Cumbria 5 seats, Somerset 5, Barnet 3. West Yorkshire and Wales., cba but a fair few. Surrey all 10.
    Those begin to add up.
    And yes, there's swingback and mid-terms. But hands up who thinks it's going to improve any time soon.
    An 80 majority is super tough to overturn in one go. But it's their efficiency of vote which seems to be wearing off. The Tories maxxed out on it since 2015.

    It’s not impossible to see things getting better. The war ends, Russia essentially beaten, or actually beaten. Fuel prices stabilise (I note the gas prices are hugely down now, not commented on by the media). Inflation drops back as the post Covid surge unwinds. Sunak, or someone actually acts to help those most in need next winter.
    Not a prediction, but plausible. And I think voters act very differently in general elections vs locals.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected and Labour has still not built up the consistent double digit poll leads needed to make Tory MPs remove Johnson, he is probably safe until the next general election. So the next Tory leader would either be PM once a re elected Johnson decides to go, or Leader of the Opposition

    “ Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected ”

    Whaaaaaaat? 😆

    The blue wall is in tatters. The red wall had chunks chomped out of it. It was far worse than all the “most serious” predictions.

    You said look at Swindon. Hard for Labour to retake in one go after Tory’s took two Labour seats they have never held before last year, but it’s a different story this year, Labour taking 3/9. An election you calling not as bad as expected revealed a sea change in UK politics if Tory’s hold their Johnson tight,
    Labour had just a 5% lead on NEV and on other predictions would not even have been largest party in a hung parliament.

    Labour failed to gain a single council in the Midlands and as you say the Conservatives held Swindon, a key town for marginal seats.

    Yes there were some bad Tory results in central London and in the posher parts of the Home Counties in terms of losses to the LDs but it certainly could have been worse and was good enough for Boris to hold on
    Wales says hello - shocking results against Drakeford

    You need to wake up and smell the coffee, but then you are a little Englander
    Wales has never voted anything but Labour for 100 years in a general election, even in 2019 Labour still won Wales despite the big Tory majority UK wide
    Your dismissal of the loss of 86 conservative councillors is shocking and betrays them

    You know more than anyone the work they put in to be elected

    Shame on you
    I know as I campaigned for them to be re elected when you did not even vote Conservative in the local elections, so don't go lecturing me about betraying Tory councillors.

    In 1995 the Tories were left with just 42 councillors in Wales compared to 111 now, Major still survived as will Boris until the next general election now
    I am not a member of the conservative party, but of course I can criticise you and your complacency and frankly ridiculous views
    Get a hotel room girls.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540
    Scott_xP said:

    Oh, fuck...

    Exclusive:

    Attorney-General has approved the scrapping of large parts of the NI Protocol

    Suella Braverman has told PM & senior ministers that EU is undermining Good Friday Agreement by creating trade barrier & fuelling civil unrest


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-can-rip-up-northern-ireland-protocol-attorney-general-rules-3xmcv8ws8

    Thank God we've got such a high-class, impressive lawyer like Suella Braverman as Attorney-General to guide the government on legal matters.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,713

    I hesitate to say this, but is it just possible that Labour did particularly well in Wales because Drakeford is quite popular? His rather dour, understated yet calm and measured approach (including his response to Covid) seems to have gone down rather well.

    You mean, not like a reject from Billy Smart's Circus?
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,006
    Scott_xP said:

    Oh, fuck...

    Exclusive:

    Attorney-General has approved the scrapping of large parts of the NI Protocol

    Suella Braverman has told PM & senior ministers that EU is undermining Good Friday Agreement by creating trade barrier & fuelling civil unrest


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-can-rip-up-northern-ireland-protocol-attorney-general-rules-3xmcv8ws8

    The week after NI itself voted by a big majority to keep the Protocol.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,713
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oh, fuck...

    Exclusive:

    Attorney-General has approved the scrapping of large parts of the NI Protocol

    Suella Braverman has told PM & senior ministers that EU is undermining Good Friday Agreement by creating trade barrier & fuelling civil unrest


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-can-rip-up-northern-ireland-protocol-attorney-general-rules-3xmcv8ws8

    I really struggle with how the government can pretend to be so angry about an agreement it itself signed up to. I don't even agree with the EU when they pretend agreements can never be altered - and then alter them - or that activating mechanisms included within agreements for when there are disputes is inherently wrong, but their rhetoric is firmly on the side of believing that there is no way the protocol could ever have worked, which just makes them look like fools.

    I'm sure Braverman took a careful legal view via the established principle of whatever Boris wants being acceptable.
    'their rhetoric' - the EU's or HMG's?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377

    dixiedean said:

    The other point is that the Tories are pointing to areas they went forward in. Such as Newcastle-under-Lyme, Nuneaton and Hartlepool.
    That's all very creditable. But they already hold those places in Westminster.
    They went badly backwards in a lot of other areas they need to hold. Cumbria 5 seats, Somerset 5, Barnet 3. West Yorkshire and Wales., cba but a fair few. Surrey all 10.
    Those begin to add up.
    And yes, there's swingback and mid-terms. But hands up who thinks it's going to improve any time soon.
    An 80 majority is super tough to overturn in one go. But it's their efficiency of vote which seems to be wearing off. The Tories maxxed out on it since 2015.

    It’s not impossible to see things getting better. The war ends, Russia essentially beaten, or actually beaten. Fuel prices stabilise (I note the gas prices are hugely down now, not commented on by the media). Inflation drops back as the post Covid surge unwinds. Sunak, or someone actually acts to help those most in need next winter.
    Not a prediction, but plausible. And I think voters act very differently in general elections vs locals.
    Gas prices are dropping as more and more of the wells and gas trains shut in for COVID (particularly in the US) come back on line.

    The next limiting factor is LNG ships.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667

    dixiedean said:

    The other point is that the Tories are pointing to areas they went forward in. Such as Newcastle-under-Lyme, Nuneaton and Hartlepool.
    That's all very creditable. But they already hold those places in Westminster.
    They went badly backwards in a lot of other areas they need to hold. Cumbria 5 seats, Somerset 5, Barnet 3. West Yorkshire and Wales., cba but a fair few. Surrey all 10.
    Those begin to add up.
    And yes, there's swingback and mid-terms. But hands up who thinks it's going to improve any time soon.
    An 80 majority is super tough to overturn in one go. But it's their efficiency of vote which seems to be wearing off. The Tories maxxed out on it since 2015.

    It’s not impossible to see things getting better. The war ends, Russia essentially beaten, or actually beaten. Fuel prices stabilise (I note the gas prices are hugely down now, not commented on by the media). Inflation drops back as the post Covid surge unwinds. Sunak, or someone actually acts to help those most in need next winter.
    Not a prediction, but plausible. And I think voters act very differently in general elections vs locals.
    Wow!

    You missed "Benpointer wins the Euromillions lottery". Just about as plausible.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    EPG said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oh, fuck...

    Exclusive:

    Attorney-General has approved the scrapping of large parts of the NI Protocol

    Suella Braverman has told PM & senior ministers that EU is undermining Good Friday Agreement by creating trade barrier & fuelling civil unrest


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-can-rip-up-northern-ireland-protocol-attorney-general-rules-3xmcv8ws8

    The week after NI itself voted by a big majority to keep the Protocol.
    This is the crucial point. Pro-protocol parties won a thumping majority on Thursday, but to listen to Tories you’d think the BritNats had won by a landslide. The DUP want their cake and eat it: part of the UK when it suits them but autonomous when it suits them. Well game over for Loyalist threats. That card is now a dud.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,964

    dixiedean said:

    The goal difference is beginning to suggest City may even be able to lose one and still take it.

    Er.. at six goals it's very likely that City could lose one and still win it.
    That's what I said my friend.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    EPG said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oh, fuck...

    Exclusive:

    Attorney-General has approved the scrapping of large parts of the NI Protocol

    Suella Braverman has told PM & senior ministers that EU is undermining Good Friday Agreement by creating trade barrier & fuelling civil unrest


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-can-rip-up-northern-ireland-protocol-attorney-general-rules-3xmcv8ws8

    The week after NI itself voted by a big majority to keep the Protocol.
    They didn't, most would be happy to remove the Irish Sea border as long as no hard border in Ireland
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    Scott_xP said:

    Oh, fuck...

    Exclusive:

    Attorney-General has approved the scrapping of large parts of the NI Protocol

    Suella Braverman has told PM & senior ministers that EU is undermining Good Friday Agreement by creating trade barrier & fuelling civil unrest


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-can-rip-up-northern-ireland-protocol-attorney-general-rules-3xmcv8ws8

    Should get the DUP back in the Tory tent if as polls predict there is a hung parliament at the next general election
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,801
    So a Johnson lapdog gives him the advice he wants .

    NI is being held hostage by the DUP aided and abetted by no 10 who are completely ignoring that a clear majority in the assembly support the protocol .

    Absolutely disgraceful behaviour from Johnson who never had any intention of honouring the deal he signed .
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oh, fuck...

    Exclusive:

    Attorney-General has approved the scrapping of large parts of the NI Protocol

    Suella Braverman has told PM & senior ministers that EU is undermining Good Friday Agreement by creating trade barrier & fuelling civil unrest


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-can-rip-up-northern-ireland-protocol-attorney-general-rules-3xmcv8ws8

    Should get the DUP back in the Tory tent if as polls predict there is a hung parliament at the next general election
    The Tories and the DUP deserve each other.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Nationalists have been smelling victory since I was a teenager in the 1950s living in Berwick and it will always elude them
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    72 years is not complacency and it is not going to happen
    Unionist confidence would be a bit more convincing if you weren’t feart of the referendum. Gordon Brown is right: Boris Johnson is playing into the Scot’s’ hands.
    Referendums are unpredictable, see Brexit, we had a once in a generation referendum in 2014 when Scots decided to stay in the UK and that decision is final
    If England wants to change Scotland’s status to that of an English colony then the honest thing to do would be to print that on ballot papers and put the question to the electorate.
    No if it wanted to change Scotland's status to a colony it would scrap Holyrood and expel Scottish MPs from Westminster
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,191
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    The goal difference is beginning to suggest City may even be able to lose one and still take it.

    Er.. at six goals it's very likely that City could lose one and still win it.
    That's what I said my friend.
    Hello @dixiedean good outcome for you tonight even though it's my team Watford's best result in 12 home games!

    You are quite safe now, Leeds are gone.

    We probably won't play you in the league again for 50 years so best wishes for your footballing future! 👍👍🏐
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,006
    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oh, fuck...

    Exclusive:

    Attorney-General has approved the scrapping of large parts of the NI Protocol

    Suella Braverman has told PM & senior ministers that EU is undermining Good Friday Agreement by creating trade barrier & fuelling civil unrest


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-can-rip-up-northern-ireland-protocol-attorney-general-rules-3xmcv8ws8

    The week after NI itself voted by a big majority to keep the Protocol.
    They didn't, most would be happy to remove the Irish Sea border as long as no hard border in Ireland
    They literally did, though, based on the parties, the policies, and the votes. Not sure what other basis we have to judge what people vote for.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,801
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oh, fuck...

    Exclusive:

    Attorney-General has approved the scrapping of large parts of the NI Protocol

    Suella Braverman has told PM & senior ministers that EU is undermining Good Friday Agreement by creating trade barrier & fuelling civil unrest


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-can-rip-up-northern-ireland-protocol-attorney-general-rules-3xmcv8ws8

    Should get the DUP back in the Tory tent if as polls predict there is a hung parliament at the next general election
    Is that all you care about ?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377

    FPT

    [SSI - my own theory is that Pickett was Harney's protege AND both were rash hotheads NOT noted for brainpower]

    Is that the same George Pickett who led the doomed charge at Gettysburg?

    Indeed.
    To be fair, Pickett wasn't actually consulted about the charge - just ordered to do it. Several senior officers said it was a fools errand.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,964

    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected

    They were worse


    Conservative disaster, Labour disappointment... sums things up reasonably well. Labour would have hoped to do better than they did.

    However, some of the losses were in places where they could afford to lose a few votes (the Lab to Green switches in inner London for example) and a fair few of the gains were in places where they can swing seats in their favour, like Southampton.
    The loss of Hull is a fantastic example, big bad news story suggesting Labour having a bad night. But it’s still a Labour MP after next election.

    I havn’t seen a chart of how many seats Labour won, and who from, and who they then lost seats too for the headline change figure, is there one? If they took a lot of Seats off Tory’s, and lost others not to Tory’s mainly but greens, libdems and local independents, that would be indicative of the change hidden there.
    Hull. The Labour vote rose. The Tory completely collapsed into the Liberal Democrats.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,213
    Next stop Belgorod?



    Shashank Joshi
    @shashj
    ·
    1h
    Useful
    @konrad_muzyka
    live map showing scale of Ukrainian counter-offensive around Kharkiv. The yellow circles depict Ukrainian activity. They are pretty much at the Russian border. For context, the black line spans around 30km.

    https://scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Rochan_UCM/091199

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1524475539188289537

  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Nationalists have been smelling victory since I was a teenager in the 1950s living in Berwick and it will always elude them
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    72 years is not complacency and it is not going to happen
    Unionist confidence would be a bit more convincing if you weren’t feart of the referendum. Gordon Brown is right: Boris Johnson is playing into the Scot’s’ hands.
    Referendums are unpredictable, see Brexit, we had a once in a generation referendum in 2014 when Scots decided to stay in the UK and that decision is final
    If England wants to change Scotland’s status to that of an English colony then the honest thing to do would be to print that on ballot papers and put the question to the electorate.
    No if it wanted to change Scotland's status to a colony it would scrap Holyrood and expel Scottish MPs from Westminster
    By denying the nation her right to self-determination the Conservatives have unilaterally changed Scotland’s status to that of a colony. The key weakness is that Labour and the Liberal Democrats do not support this move, so it is only a matter of time before the constitutional coup fails.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,985
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @rcs1000

    “The evidence hasn't changed one jot in two years: the same city where bat viruses are researched is the same city where the virus emerged. It is massive circumstantial evidence, that makes it by far the most likely source of the virus. But it doesn't preclude the small chance that it is entirely zoonotic.”

    +++

    This is not true. Loads more evidence has emerged - the alteration of the Furin Cleavage Site, the fact Daszak put in a bid to do precisely this virological engineering, the endless redacted emails showing that everyone in UK/US initially ASSUMED it came from the lab (then weirdly and inexplicably changed their minds overnight), and so on, and so forth

    Is this all just “circumstantial”? I guess maybe. But if you are waiting for “hard” evidence: ie a video of something tampering with a bat virus then - Ooops! - spilling it near the market, that’s not gonna happen

    Otherwise I agree. We can now say it very likely came from the lab. We cannot say this absolutely, however - and probably never will be able to do that

    Who'd have thought gain of function research would lead to gain of function in a coronavirus.
    Shocker.
    Bat soup though.
    The transfer from non-human animals - pangolin in this case it is said - I guess had plausibility due to HIV coming from bats. I'm not sure Ockham's Razor necessarily points to a lab. Maybe we'll never know.

    What are the views of @Carnyx and @CD13 ?
    When the lab is at the epicentre and studies coronaviruses its probably top choice though.
    At least one study presented evidence otherwise - mapped cases pointing ti the market.
    Worobey. Since debunked
    More than one paper, and it was also a matter of genetic trees not just geography.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00584-8#ref-CR3

    But I lost interest after that as I had to deal with more urgent matters.
    Look at the author of the article you cite, Amy Maxmen


    She’s do devalued she makes the Turkish Lira look like the Swiss Franc


    “Nature reporter Amy Maxmen denied sitting next to Peter Daszak in this video forgetting she tweeted about what an honor it was at the time.”

    When a photo of her with Peter “Wuhan lab” Daszak emerged, she literally tried to claim it was “doctored” by Breitbart. Then she denied she’d ever said that, then she shut the F up. She’s a clueless hack and a worthless shill

    https://twitter.com/biorealism/status/1510747664270340100?s=21&t=N-DURwqdrZC-CG1cKjaejA

    This stuff is not hard. It takes 5 minutes with a laptop and an open but inquisitive mind
    I'm usually fairly convinced by the lab leak theory, but @Leon is so over the top in his espousal of it, I keep finding myself drawn back to the wet market theory.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,985

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @rcs1000

    “The evidence hasn't changed one jot in two years: the same city where bat viruses are researched is the same city where the virus emerged. It is massive circumstantial evidence, that makes it by far the most likely source of the virus. But it doesn't preclude the small chance that it is entirely zoonotic.”

    +++

    This is not true. Loads more evidence has emerged - the alteration of the Furin Cleavage Site, the fact Daszak put in a bid to do precisely this virological engineering, the endless redacted emails showing that everyone in UK/US initially ASSUMED it came from the lab (then weirdly and inexplicably changed their minds overnight), and so on, and so forth

    Is this all just “circumstantial”? I guess maybe. But if you are waiting for “hard” evidence: ie a video of something tampering with a bat virus then - Ooops! - spilling it near the market, that’s not gonna happen

    Otherwise I agree. We can now say it very likely came from the lab. We cannot say this absolutely, however - and probably never will be able to do that

    Who'd have thought gain of function research would lead to gain of function in a coronavirus.
    Shocker.
    Bat soup though.
    The transfer from non-human animals - pangolin in this case it is said - I guess had plausibility due to HIV coming from bats. I'm not sure Ockham's Razor necessarily points to a lab. Maybe we'll never know.

    What are the views of @Carnyx and @CD13 ?
    When the lab is at the epicentre and studies coronaviruses its probably top choice though.
    At least one study presented evidence otherwise - mapped cases pointing ti the market.
    That was the study that had dodgy sampling of cases for the mapping right?
    Apparently so fide Leon.

    Will have a look at Matt Ridley's book.
    Doesn’t reach a conclusion but lays out the evidence fairly
    Absent a whistleblower, I doubt we'll ever know for sure.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,006
    It's a bit rich to damn him for not keeping up with Aspire. He can't exactly propose that the whole country be governed by a male-only, Bangladeshi-only cabinet.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,985
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @rcs1000

    “The evidence hasn't changed one jot in two years: the same city where bat viruses are researched is the same city where the virus emerged. It is massive circumstantial evidence, that makes it by far the most likely source of the virus. But it doesn't preclude the small chance that it is entirely zoonotic.”

    +++

    This is not true. Loads more evidence has emerged - the alteration of the Furin Cleavage Site, the fact Daszak put in a bid to do precisely this virological engineering, the endless redacted emails showing that everyone in UK/US initially ASSUMED it came from the lab (then weirdly and inexplicably changed their minds overnight), and so on, and so forth

    Is this all just “circumstantial”? I guess maybe. But if you are waiting for “hard” evidence: ie a video of something tampering with a bat virus then - Ooops! - spilling it near the market, that’s not gonna happen

    Otherwise I agree. We can now say it very likely came from the lab. We cannot say this absolutely, however - and probably never will be able to do that

    Who'd have thought gain of function research would lead to gain of function in a coronavirus.
    Shocker.
    Bat soup though.
    The transfer from non-human animals - pangolin in this case it is said - I guess had plausibility due to HIV coming from bats. I'm not sure Ockham's Razor necessarily points to a lab. Maybe we'll never know.

    What are the views of @Carnyx and @CD13 ?
    When the lab is at the epicentre and studies coronaviruses its probably top choice though.
    At least one study presented evidence otherwise - mapped cases pointing ti the market.
    That was the study that had dodgy sampling of cases for the mapping right?
    Yes, and co-authored by Kristian Andersen, who wrote the notorious early paper for Nature, which - along with The Lancet letter - tried to squash the lab leak hypothesis at birth, despite private emails from Andersen himself, at the same time - gouged out of the archives by Freedom of Info requests - admitting that a lab leak was the obvious, probable hypothesis

    The cover-up wasn’t even that good, that’s the amazing thing. Yet it was remarkably successful, for a year, probably because Fear of a Trump Re-election meant that social media bought into it
    That would be a real moral dilemma. If you genuinely thought Donald Trump was mad enough to start WW3 if it had been confirmed would you be tempted to fudge it a bit?
    Possibly.
    It is entirely possible, of course, that it was (a) a lab leak, and (b) the Chinese government has no knowledge of it.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,180

    dixiedean said:

    The other point is that the Tories are pointing to areas they went forward in. Such as Newcastle-under-Lyme, Nuneaton and Hartlepool.
    That's all very creditable. But they already hold those places in Westminster.
    They went badly backwards in a lot of other areas they need to hold. Cumbria 5 seats, Somerset 5, Barnet 3. West Yorkshire and Wales., cba but a fair few. Surrey all 10.
    Those begin to add up.
    And yes, there's swingback and mid-terms. But hands up who thinks it's going to improve any time soon.
    An 80 majority is super tough to overturn in one go. But it's their efficiency of vote which seems to be wearing off. The Tories maxxed out on it since 2015.

    It’s not impossible to see things getting better. The war ends, Russia essentially beaten, or actually beaten. Fuel prices stabilise (I note the gas prices are hugely down now, not commented on by the media). Inflation drops back as the post Covid surge unwinds. Sunak, or someone actually acts to help those most in need next winter.
    Not a prediction, but plausible. And I think voters act very differently in general elections vs locals.
    Wow!

    You missed "Benpointer wins the Euromillions lottery". Just about as plausible.
    Well I don't know you haven't scooped 184 million recently. You would say, wouldn't you?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,964

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    The goal difference is beginning to suggest City may even be able to lose one and still take it.

    Er.. at six goals it's very likely that City could lose one and still win it.
    That's what I said my friend.
    Hello @dixiedean good outcome for you tonight even though it's my team Watford's best result in 12 home games!

    You are quite safe now, Leeds are gone.

    We probably won't play you in the league again for 50 years so best wishes for your footballing future! 👍👍🏐
    Thanks my friend. I don't think we are safe yet. But we might be by Sunday evening.
    Had a soft spot for Watford since the 1984 Cup Final.
    Bit of a controversial, but completely legal, Andy Gray goal. But one the Hornets took with good grace.
    Sure we'll meet again soon.
    Hopefully in the Premier not the Championship :).
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,213
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oh, fuck...

    Exclusive:

    Attorney-General has approved the scrapping of large parts of the NI Protocol

    Suella Braverman has told PM & senior ministers that EU is undermining Good Friday Agreement by creating trade barrier & fuelling civil unrest


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-can-rip-up-northern-ireland-protocol-attorney-general-rules-3xmcv8ws8

    Should get the DUP back in the Tory tent if as polls predict there is a hung parliament at the next general election
    Did I not warn the other day that we cannot assume the Tories are non-coalitionable?

    Johnson will find a way to bring unionists on board post 2024 hung election if that happens.

    It may involve the moon on a stick again of course...

  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,289
    Betting ?

    Word tonight Ben Wallace is lined up to become head of NATO in the autumn

    Not PM then
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    edited May 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angus Council: SNP forms administration with backing from independents

    The SNP is to lead Angus Council after reaching agreement for support with two independent councillors, marking an end to a scandal-ridden Tory dominated administration.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20131782.angus-council-snp-forms-administration-backing-independents/

    Ooh, that will interest @DavidL though perhaps not gratify him.

    Not a case of Slab teddies ejected oot tthe bogie as there's only one of them - but even so ...

    Moral probably is, don't have trolls for cooncillors:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19406206.derek-wann-angus-locals-petition-twitter-troll-tory-councillor-resign/

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19394172.derek-wann-angus-tory-councillor-linked-anonymous-anti-snp-troll-account/

    'Derek Wann, who serves on Angus Council for Arbroath East and Lunan, was linked to an anonymous account called "Lady Whistledown" after it shared a link to a council press release - where he was the only person quoted - with the caption "my comments".

    Wann had posted the same press release on his official Facebook page just 15 minutes prior.

    [...]

    Now, The National has discovered that the mobile phone number linked to the Twitter account has the same last two numbers as Wann's [the rest asterisked out].

    Wann has so far not responded to The National’s request for comment, but the Lady Whistledown account was deleted an hour after we lodged the request regarding the mobile number similarities.

    A second Angus councillor, independent Tommy Stewart, also has the same digits at the end of his council mobile number. When contacted, Stewart said he doesn’t have a Twitter account, use the site, or intend to.'
    David will probably be quite pleased. I’m pretty sure he predicted an SNP majority in Angus when he commented on the first published results coming in from the area. So a minority administration is better from his perspective.
    The National makes, well actually Pravda is about the only example that comes close, look impartial and objective but I am not dismayed. If the SNP are as competent as they usually are Angus constituency may come into play again.
    Angus is split in two under the new boundaries. The largest part goes into the new Angus and Strathmore, which takes in significant chunks of the old SNP-held Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee West and Dundee East; transforming it into an SNP nominal seat on 2019 votes.

    Baxter predicts:
    SNP hold 77%
    Con gain 22%

    And that before last Thursday’s SCon fiasco.
    I'd put it at 95/5 minimum, Angus is trending away from Con and the Dundee wards secure it anyway. Perth a little better hunting for Rosses raiders but South Perthshire seems better for them at the moment
    Not sure I’d agree with that. If it was tomorrow then yes. But by 2024 Nicola will have made a fiasco of Indyref 2 and might even be gone, leaving the muppets without Kermit. There’s a lot of water to flow before the next election in Scotland.
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    Ah but Nationalists have been smelling victory since about 2012. And it has eluded them.
    And I am hardly complacent. I am just saying that the 22% from Baxter is more like it than 5%.
    Nationalists have been smelling victory since I was a teenager in the 1950s living in Berwick and it will always elude them
    I love the smell of Unionist complacency in the morning.
    72 years is not complacency and it is not going to happen
    Unionist confidence would be a bit more convincing if you weren’t feart of the referendum. Gordon Brown is right: Boris Johnson is playing into the Scot’s’ hands.
    Referendums are unpredictable, see Brexit, we had a once in a generation referendum in 2014 when Scots decided to stay in the UK and that decision is final
    If England wants to change Scotland’s status to that of an English colony then the honest thing to do would be to print that on ballot papers and put the question to the electorate.
    No if it wanted to change Scotland's status to a colony it would scrap Holyrood and expel Scottish MPs from Westminster
    By denying the nation her right to self-determination the Conservatives have unilaterally changed Scotland’s status to that of a colony. The key weakness is that Labour and the Liberal Democrats do not support this move, so it is only a matter of time before the constitutional coup fails.
    No, Scots were given a referendum in 2014, they decided to stay in the UK.

    To be a colony proper as I said Scots MPs would have to be expelled from the House of Commons and Holyrood shut down. The government has not done that so stop whinging.

    The LDs under Ed Davey also oppose an indyref2 as will Starmer provided he does not need SNP support in a hung parliament
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,289
    edited May 2022
    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oh, fuck...

    Exclusive:

    Attorney-General has approved the scrapping of large parts of the NI Protocol

    Suella Braverman has told PM & senior ministers that EU is undermining Good Friday Agreement by creating trade barrier & fuelling civil unrest


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-can-rip-up-northern-ireland-protocol-attorney-general-rules-3xmcv8ws8

    Should get the DUP back in the Tory tent if as polls predict there is a hung parliament at the next general election
    Is that all you care about ?
    It really is shocking (the comment)

    In any difficult negotiations bluff and counter bluff are often used and who knows it may work
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,628

    Betting ?

    Word tonight Ben Wallace is lined up to become head of NATO in the autumn

    Not PM then

    Really. Volunteering to have a by election seems rash.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667
    Lee Anderson MP, who today said poor people forced to use foodbanks 'cannot cook or budget properly' claimed £222,000 in expenses in 2020/21 - including £4,100 on travel and 'subsistence'

    https://twitter.com/LiamThorpECHO/status/1524418659485208577?s=20&t=-z3GB3vICjAhH21Ett5IAA
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992

    Betting ?

    Word tonight Ben Wallace is lined up to become head of NATO in the autumn

    Not PM then

    Boris is secure until the next general election now anyway
  • Options
    vinovino Posts: 151
    My breakfast was 3 Wheat Biscuits (Morrisons 24 pack - 74p)
    A small portion of milk (Morrisons 2pint semi - skinned 99p)
    So 3x3.1 = 9p plus say 5p for milk = 14p
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,006

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oh, fuck...

    Exclusive:

    Attorney-General has approved the scrapping of large parts of the NI Protocol

    Suella Braverman has told PM & senior ministers that EU is undermining Good Friday Agreement by creating trade barrier & fuelling civil unrest


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-can-rip-up-northern-ireland-protocol-attorney-general-rules-3xmcv8ws8

    Should get the DUP back in the Tory tent if as polls predict there is a hung parliament at the next general election
    Did I not warn the other day that we cannot assume the Tories are non-coalitionable?

    Johnson will find a way to bring unionists on board post 2024 hung election if that happens.

    It may involve the moon on a stick again of course...

    The DUP are heading for 7 seats, maybe 5 or 6 if the UUP get their act together or if there are funny deals in other constituencies.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,992
    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oh, fuck...

    Exclusive:

    Attorney-General has approved the scrapping of large parts of the NI Protocol

    Suella Braverman has told PM & senior ministers that EU is undermining Good Friday Agreement by creating trade barrier & fuelling civil unrest


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-can-rip-up-northern-ireland-protocol-attorney-general-rules-3xmcv8ws8

    Should get the DUP back in the Tory tent if as polls predict there is a hung parliament at the next general election
    Did I not warn the other day that we cannot assume the Tories are non-coalitionable?

    Johnson will find a way to bring unionists on board post 2024 hung election if that happens.

    It may involve the moon on a stick again of course...

    The DUP are heading for 7 seats, maybe 5 or 6 if the UUP get their act together or if there are funny deals in other constituencies.
    Could be enough if the Tories are just short of a majority
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,628
    Tim Farron funny on Twitter re Hove's weird performance this morning.

    'Whatevet Michael had this morning for breakfast I'm sure the Lib Dems are in favour of legalising it...'.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,289
    kjh said:

    Betting ?

    Word tonight Ben Wallace is lined up to become head of NATO in the autumn

    Not PM then

    Really. Volunteering to have a by election seems rash.
    Depends on his ambition and he would be an excellent choice
  • Options
    MalcolmDunnMalcolmDunn Posts: 139
    Read Lee Anderson's whole speech. Seemed pretty plausible to me. But if course to some posters here as he's a Conservative he must be inherently evil.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,006
    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oh, fuck...

    Exclusive:

    Attorney-General has approved the scrapping of large parts of the NI Protocol

    Suella Braverman has told PM & senior ministers that EU is undermining Good Friday Agreement by creating trade barrier & fuelling civil unrest


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-can-rip-up-northern-ireland-protocol-attorney-general-rules-3xmcv8ws8

    Should get the DUP back in the Tory tent if as polls predict there is a hung parliament at the next general election
    Did I not warn the other day that we cannot assume the Tories are non-coalitionable?

    Johnson will find a way to bring unionists on board post 2024 hung election if that happens.

    It may involve the moon on a stick again of course...

    The DUP are heading for 7 seats, maybe 5 or 6 if the UUP get their act together or if there are funny deals in other constituencies.
    Could be enough if the Tories are just short of a majority
    For sure. And they would not at this point go for an odds and ends government.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given the local elections results were not as bad as many expected

    They were worse


    Conservative disaster, Labour disappointment... sums things up reasonably well. Labour would have hoped to do better than they did.

    However, some of the losses were in places where they could afford to lose a few votes (the Lab to Green switches in inner London for example) and a fair few of the gains were in places where they can swing seats in their favour, like Southampton.
    The loss of Hull is a fantastic example, big bad news story suggesting Labour having a bad night. But it’s still a Labour MP after next election.

    I havn’t seen a chart of how many seats Labour won, and who from, and who they then lost seats too for the headline change figure, is there one? If they took a lot of Seats off Tory’s, and lost others not to Tory’s mainly but greens, libdems and local independents, that would be indicative of the change hidden there.
    Hull. The Labour vote rose. The Tory completely collapsed into the Liberal Democrats.
    Hastings is another one. At face value it's a Labour loss but the detail is a swing to the left, Tory to Lab, Lab to Green.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115

    Next stop Belgorod?



    Shashank Joshi
    @shashj
    ·
    1h
    Useful
    @konrad_muzyka
    live map showing scale of Ukrainian counter-offensive around Kharkiv. The yellow circles depict Ukrainian activity. They are pretty much at the Russian border. For context, the black line spans around 30km.

    https://scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Rochan_UCM/091199

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1524475539188289537

    https://twitter.com/jeffaedmonds/status/1524453223918145538

    One man's "being able to only take up a somewhat coordinated withdrawal" is another man's "being able to only descend into a rout....."
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,286
    nico679 said:

    So a Johnson lapdog gives him the advice he wants .

    NI is being held hostage by the DUP aided and abetted by no 10 who are completely ignoring that a clear majority in the assembly support the protocol .

    Absolutely disgraceful behaviour from Johnson who never had any intention of honouring the deal he signed .

    Also, back in 2016, 56% of NI voters wanted to Remain.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,289

    Read Lee Anderson's whole speech. Seemed pretty plausible to me. But if course to some posters here as he's a Conservative he must be inherently evil.

    There is a lot of truth in what he says and if you see the queues at McDonald's drive through and the number of home takeaways being delivered, the food is not healthy and is expensive compared to cooking at home

    Mind you I expect many do cook at home anyway
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,628

    kjh said:

    Betting ?

    Word tonight Ben Wallace is lined up to become head of NATO in the autumn

    Not PM then

    Really. Volunteering to have a by election seems rash.
    Depends on his ambition and he would be an excellent choice
    Agree, but I thought they were trying to discourage Whitingdale from doing a similar thing to avoid a by election.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667

    dixiedean said:

    The other point is that the Tories are pointing to areas they went forward in. Such as Newcastle-under-Lyme, Nuneaton and Hartlepool.
    That's all very creditable. But they already hold those places in Westminster.
    They went badly backwards in a lot of other areas they need to hold. Cumbria 5 seats, Somerset 5, Barnet 3. West Yorkshire and Wales., cba but a fair few. Surrey all 10.
    Those begin to add up.
    And yes, there's swingback and mid-terms. But hands up who thinks it's going to improve any time soon.
    An 80 majority is super tough to overturn in one go. But it's their efficiency of vote which seems to be wearing off. The Tories maxxed out on it since 2015.

    It’s not impossible to see things getting better. The war ends, Russia essentially beaten, or actually beaten. Fuel prices stabilise (I note the gas prices are hugely down now, not commented on by the media). Inflation drops back as the post Covid surge unwinds. Sunak, or someone actually acts to help those most in need next winter.
    Not a prediction, but plausible. And I think voters act very differently in general elections vs locals.
    Wow!

    You missed "Benpointer wins the Euromillions lottery". Just about as plausible.
    Well I don't know you haven't scooped 184 million recently. You would say, wouldn't you?
    Mike or Robert would spot the extra large PB donation, I expect!
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,432
    kjh said:

    Betting ?

    Word tonight Ben Wallace is lined up to become head of NATO in the autumn

    Not PM then

    Really. Volunteering to have a by election seems rash.
    Gets rid of a potential rival to the Bozzmeister.

    Even if the resulting bye-election is lost, that's an incredibly low price to pay.

    Especially if you are the Bozzmeister and couldn't give a flying one about the Conservative Party except as a way of getting you into No 10.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,213
    Not a good front page for Tories on cost of living in Express tonight.

    "Desperate cry for help we cannot ignore"
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,964

    Read Lee Anderson's whole speech. Seemed pretty plausible to me. But if course to some posters here as he's a Conservative he must be inherently evil.

    No.
    It isn't that. It's that the prevailing view of many of his own Party is that they are the Party of the dispossessed.
    You either are or you aren't.
    He was responding to Tory backbench moans about the cost of living crisis.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    Not I. It was stupid from Labour - and it will be stupid from Rishi.

    If you go for a windfall tax in the good times, is the Govt. going to be there to bail out every company when they are going bust?

    No. It's a money grab "because they can/are desperate". It is not in any way a coherent strategy.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,213
    HYUFD said:

    Betting ?

    Word tonight Ben Wallace is lined up to become head of NATO in the autumn

    Not PM then

    Boris is secure until the next general election now anyway
    But just in case he is moving his current main rival well away from Westminster.

    :lol:
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,801
    I wish reporters would just ask the DUP what they thought would happen with Brexit ?

    Wtf did they support that and even worse a hard Brexit?

    The suspicion is they wanted a hard border between NI and Ireland .
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    kjh said:

    Tim Farron funny on Twitter re Hove's weird performance this morning.

    'Whatevet Michael had this morning for breakfast I'm sure the Lib Dems are in favour of legalising it...'.

    Hovis?
This discussion has been closed.