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Korma chameleon, you come and go – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 15 in General
imageKorma chameleon, you come and go – politicalbetting.com

At the start of 2022 I never expected to be writing a thread on a betting market on Sir Keir Starmer getting a penalty notice for breaking Covid-19 regulations, quite frankly Starmer seems a bit vanilla and boring to be breaking any rules but thanks to Smarkets you can bet on this market.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,167
    This is not a comment.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,167

    I don't think it would put Boris in a bind if KS stood down. I think he'd just carry on, because he can. People would say "Boris, you should stand down", and Boris would say "It's more important to deal with more important matter X" and that would be that.

    Yes (and that is also what would have happened if Rishi had resigned, and what always happens, with the qualified exception of Howe vs Thatcher and even that is stretching it).
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    What's interesting about that Sunday Times story is the very clear implication that the story is being driven by information coming from disaffected Corbynistas. I'd also point out that "to the best of my knowledge" is doing a hell of a lot of lifting in the piece.

    However, putting all that to one side ... if Starmer gets an FPN, Rayner will too, as she was also present. That puts them both out of the picture, assuming they have more integrity and honour than Boris Johnson. At that stage, the leadership contest becomes one between Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson and Wes Streeting. Given the current membership profile, I suspect that it would be one of the latter two who would win.

    Even more intriguing, if Starmer and Rayner do go, who becomes acting Labour leader while a contest takes place? I guess it will fall to either Labour MPs or the NEC to make that call. Either way, it is not going to be an MP from the Socialist Campaign Group. In fact, by getting into bed with the Mail and the Murdoch press, the Corbyn left may end up killing itself off entirely within Labour, while providing Labour with a much more voter-friendly leader than Starmer. What larks!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558

    I don't think it would put Boris in a bind if KS stood down. I think he'd just carry on, because he can. People would say "Boris, you should stand down", and Boris would say "It's more important to deal with more important matter X" and that would be that.

    Yep, there is no way Johnson would stand down. But it will further reinforce perceptions about him at a time when he is viscerally disliked by a large part of the electorate. That may lead a few more Tory MPs to consider whether he needs to be ousted.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    I don't think it would put Boris in a bind if KS stood down. I think he'd just carry on, because he can. People would say "Boris, you should stand down", and Boris would say "It's more important to deal with more important matter X" and that would be that.

    Yep, there is no way Johnson would stand down.

    You're very big and definite and full of certainties: the same yesterday with a 'no way' riposte.

    Maybe, just maybe, you're not always right and it would be worth your while pausing to reflect a little more. Just a thought.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    Heathener said:

    I don't think it would put Boris in a bind if KS stood down. I think he'd just carry on, because he can. People would say "Boris, you should stand down", and Boris would say "It's more important to deal with more important matter X" and that would be that.

    Yep, there is no way Johnson would stand down.

    You're very big and definite and full of certainties: the same yesterday with a 'no way' riposte.

    Maybe, just maybe, you're not always right and it would be worth your while pausing to reflect a little more. Just a thought.

    I am expressing a view based on long observation of the way in which Boris Johnson conducts himself. I am sorry if that upsets you!

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    At that stage, the leadership contest becomes one between Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson and Wes Streeting. Given the current membership profile, I suspect that it would be one of the latter two who would win.

    Wtf?!

    Once again your certainties have over-ridden your knowledge. You haven't even mentioned the most likely successor: the stand-out performer in parliament. Even the bookies have her as favourite once you discount Andy Burnham (who isn't even an MP).

    There are several other potentials successors should the event arise.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    Heathener said:

    I don't think it would put Boris in a bind if KS stood down. I think he'd just carry on, because he can. People would say "Boris, you should stand down", and Boris would say "It's more important to deal with more important matter X" and that would be that.

    Yep, there is no way Johnson would stand down.

    You're very big and definite and full of certainties: the same yesterday with a 'no way' riposte.

    Maybe, just maybe, you're not always right and it would be worth your while pausing to reflect a little more. Just a thought.

    I am expressing a view based on long observation of the way in which Boris Johnson conducts himself. I am sorry if that upsets you!

    It doesn't upset me, it bemuses me.
  • FrequentLurkerFrequentLurker Posts: 10
    edited May 8
    Could Starmer 'do a Major' -- ie resign and stand in the subsequent leadership election?

    I think he would probably win such a contest, and he could do so in the knowledge that Boris would lose if he followed suit.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    It's worth looking at today's Sunday Telegraph and Sunday Times. As I mentioned on here yesterday, the blue wall tories are not content. There are big hitting MPs who are quite likely to lose their seats at the next election.

    I am beginning to think the move against Boris will come not from the red wall, but the blue one.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,167

    Could Starmer 'do a Major' -- ie resign and stand in the subsequent leadership election?

    I think he would probably win such a contest, and he could do so in the knowledge that Boris would lose if he followed suit.

    Even if he could, what would be the point? It would not make the story go away, and there is no reason to expect Boris to follow suit.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    Heathener said:

    At that stage, the leadership contest becomes one between Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson and Wes Streeting. Given the current membership profile, I suspect that it would be one of the latter two who would win.

    Wtf?!

    Once again your certainties have over-ridden your knowledge. You haven't even mentioned the most likely successor: the stand-out performer in parliament. Even the bookies have her as favourite once you discount Andy Burnham (who isn't even an MP).

    There are several other potentials successors should the event arise.

    As a Labour party member I speak with some knowledge of the way in which it operates and what its membership thinks. If you are referring to Yvette Cooper, she is certainly a possibility, though I suspect she would struggle on transfers (and may not even stand).

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558

    Could Starmer 'do a Major' -- ie resign and stand in the subsequent leadership election?

    I think he would probably win such a contest, and he could do so in the knowledge that Boris would lose if he followed suit.

    Starmer's issue would be his credibility with the electorate, not the membership. It's not really a back me or sack me issue in the way Major's was.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    Do we have a list of MPs who were at this event?

    I’d have thought if Starmer did resign, then surely the Tory MPs would have to get rid of Johnson. This story is only of any use to them if Starmer doesn’t resign, and even then I still think they need to oust Johnson to feel any benefit.

    Guido thinks Starmer will resign if he is fined. I’m not so sure. People don’t give up these positions very easily.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    Heathener said:

    It's worth looking at today's Sunday Telegraph and Sunday Times. As I mentioned on here yesterday, the blue wall tories are not content. There are big hitting MPs who are quite likely to lose their seats at the next election.

    I am beginning to think the move against Boris will come not from the red wall, but the blue one.

    I agree. Johnson has embraced the English nationalism the Red Wall Tory MPs seem to largely stand for. The more pro-business, small state, conservative constitutional values of the Blue Wall have been largely ditched and old school Tory voters are beginning to notice.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    edited May 8

    Heathener said:

    At that stage, the leadership contest becomes one between Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson and Wes Streeting. Given the current membership profile, I suspect that it would be one of the latter two who would win.

    Wtf?!

    Once again your certainties have over-ridden your knowledge. You haven't even mentioned the most likely successor: the stand-out performer in parliament. Even the bookies have her as favourite once you discount Andy Burnham (who isn't even an MP).

    There are several other potentials successors should the event arise.

    As a Labour party member I speak with some knowledge of the way in which it operates and what its membership thinks. If you are referring to Yvette Cooper, she is certainly a possibility, though I suspect she would struggle on transfers (and may not even stand).

    No I wasn't. I really like Yvette but she's probably yesterday's leader.

    Rachel Reeves. The Shadow Chancellor. She has been brilliant in parliament.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    Could Starmer 'do a Major' -- ie resign and stand in the subsequent leadership election?

    I think he would probably win such a contest, and he could do so in the knowledge that Boris would lose if he followed suit.

    Even if he could, what would be the point? It would not make the story go away, and there is no reason to expect Boris to follow suit.
    Exactly.

    It would prove nothing at all with the electorate, except that the Party has rubber-stamped the, erm, 'party'.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    p.s. S.O. clearly if Starmer did have to stand down over this (by no means certain) that must also rule out Angela Rayner. She was also present at the party, which is one of the reasons Durham police are looking at it again.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    edited May 8
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    At that stage, the leadership contest becomes one between Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson and Wes Streeting. Given the current membership profile, I suspect that it would be one of the latter two who would win.

    Wtf?!

    Once again your certainties have over-ridden your knowledge. You haven't even mentioned the most likely successor: the stand-out performer in parliament. Even the bookies have her as favourite once you discount Andy Burnham (who isn't even an MP).

    There are several other potentials successors should the event arise.

    As a Labour party member I speak with some knowledge of the way in which it operates and what its membership thinks. If you are referring to Yvette Cooper, she is certainly a possibility, though I suspect she would struggle on transfers (and may not even stand).

    So am I.

    And, erm, no I wasn't. I really like Yvette but she's probably yesterday's leader.

    Rachel Reeves. The Shadow Chancellor. She has been brilliant in parliament.

    I am not disputing your knowledge!

    I like Rachel Reeves a great deal. She has done a lot of thinking and fine writing on what Labour in the 21st century should stand for. However, I think she would struggle in a leadership contest if she decided to stand because she has no strong base in the party and no obvious distinguishing point. I'd like to be wrong, though.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    Heathener said:

    p.s. S.O. clearly if Starmer did have to stand down over this (by no means certain) that must also rule out Angela Rayner. She was also present at the party, which is one of the reasons Durham police are looking at it again.

    Yep, I wrote that in my first post on this thread. For me, with Starmer and Rayner both out, a really interesting question is who would take over while a leadership contest is organised - and who decides.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    At that stage, the leadership contest becomes one between Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson and Wes Streeting. Given the current membership profile, I suspect that it would be one of the latter two who would win.

    Wtf?!

    Once again your certainties have over-ridden your knowledge. You haven't even mentioned the most likely successor: the stand-out performer in parliament. Even the bookies have her as favourite once you discount Andy Burnham (who isn't even an MP).

    There are several other potentials successors should the event arise.

    As a Labour party member I speak with some knowledge of the way in which it operates and what its membership thinks. If you are referring to Yvette Cooper, she is certainly a possibility, though I suspect she would struggle on transfers (and may not even stand).

    So am I.

    And, erm, no I wasn't. I really like Yvette but she's probably yesterday's leader.

    Rachel Reeves. The Shadow Chancellor. She has been brilliant in parliament.

    I am not disputing your knowledge!

    You should :wink:

    I'm not that clued up on Labour machinations. I only joined when SKS booted out the anti-Semites and I have never attended a meeting, nor do I think I ever would. I also vote LibDem or Green if the situation merits it. So I'm a pretty flakey person.

    I just want to see this godawful man removed from No.10 and a more decent, fair, compassionate and honest society rebuilt in this country.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    At that stage, the leadership contest becomes one between Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson and Wes Streeting. Given the current membership profile, I suspect that it would be one of the latter two who would win.

    Wtf?!

    Once again your certainties have over-ridden your knowledge. You haven't even mentioned the most likely successor: the stand-out performer in parliament. Even the bookies have her as favourite once you discount Andy Burnham (who isn't even an MP).

    There are several other potentials successors should the event arise.

    As a Labour party member I speak with some knowledge of the way in which it operates and what its membership thinks. If you are referring to Yvette Cooper, she is certainly a possibility, though I suspect she would struggle on transfers (and may not even stand).

    So am I.

    And, erm, no I wasn't. I really like Yvette but she's probably yesterday's leader.

    Rachel Reeves. The Shadow Chancellor. She has been brilliant in parliament.

    I am not disputing your knowledge!

    You should :wink:

    I'm not that clued up on Labour machinations. I only joined when SKS booted out the anti-Semites and I have never attended a meeting, nor do I think I ever would. I also vote LibDem or Green if the situation merits it. So I'm a pretty flakey person.

    I just want to see this godawful man removed from No.10 and a more decent, fair, compassionate and honest society rebuilt in this country.

    All genuine patriots do!

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    On another point - I have read that Thursday represents the second worse Tory performance in a May local election since 1996 and that only 2019 was worse. Does anyone know if this is true?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,334

    I don't think it would put Boris in a bind if KS stood down. I think he'd just carry on, because he can. People would say "Boris, you should stand down", and Boris would say "It's more important to deal with more important matter X" and that would be that.

    And to be fair to Boris, it's Starmer who claimed that even the investigation - let alone the FPN - was a resignation matter (*). Starmer is himself being investigated, so why hasn't he resigned? ;)

    This is rank incompetence by Labour. I've said passim that the Conservative's woes over the last six months were down to events utterly under the government's own control. They were unforced errors.

    This is the same for Labour. A little thought might have avoided this, but why think when you have an open goal in front of you? Ignoring the cable leading from the net to a landmine under your feet...

    (*) Stupidly, for so many reasons.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,334
    I'll repeat a point I've made before: if the point of the restrictions was to prevent virus spread, then the Starmer do might have been much worse than the No. 10 events. People getting together from all parts of the country and getting pi**ed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,209

    On another point - I have read that Thursday represents the second worse Tory performance in a May local election since 1996 and that only 2019 was worse. Does anyone know if this is true?

    Wouldn't be surprising. There was 15 years of uninterrupted gains for the Tories since 1996.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467

    On another point - I have read that Thursday represents the second worse Tory performance in a May local election since 1996 and that only 2019 was worse. Does anyone know if this is true?

    2019 locals was certainly a bad night for the Tories, losing 1330 councillors from 3564 defending, for a projected national vote share of 28%., once again LD the big winners, and the Greens.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Which should make next years interesting, as additional losses from such a low base would be quite damning.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,775
    Foxy said:

    On another point - I have read that Thursday represents the second worse Tory performance in a May local election since 1996 and that only 2019 was worse. Does anyone know if this is true?

    2019 locals was certainly a bad night for the Tories, losing 1330 councillors from 3564 defending, for a projected national vote share of 28%., once again LD the big winners, and the Greens.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Which should make next years interesting, as additional losses from such a low base would be quite damning.
    Stating the obvious but there was close to zero correlation between LE19 and GE19.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,775
    edited May 8
    Ed Balls for the Wakefield by-election and then straight into a leadership election? Stranger things have happened...

    PS Good morning friends!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467
    murali_s said:

    Foxy said:

    On another point - I have read that Thursday represents the second worse Tory performance in a May local election since 1996 and that only 2019 was worse. Does anyone know if this is true?

    2019 locals was certainly a bad night for the Tories, losing 1330 councillors from 3564 defending, for a projected national vote share of 28%., once again LD the big winners, and the Greens.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Which should make next years interesting, as additional losses from such a low base would be quite damning.
    Stating the obvious but there was close to zero correlation between LE19 and GE19.
    Yes, and the 2019 Euros were even worse for the Tories. It does set the picture for the 2023 English Local elections.

    I agree that General Elections are different.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467
    edited May 8
    If there is one country more obsessed with WW2 than us it is Russia. Its Poppyism gone mad.

    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1522661682467815425?t=jor0zGcGaVVOGBceZnUKhQ&s=19

    Another vivid example of Russia’s “pobedobesie” and probably the weirdest thing you’ll watch today.
    https://t.co/6z1Edclcvd

    https://t.co/XEPaf5TJFV
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    murali_s said:

    Ed Balls for the Wakefield by-election and then straight into a leadership election? Stranger things have happened...

    PS Good morning friends!

    I think Balls has ruled out standing in Wakefield.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:

    Foxy said:

    On another point - I have read that Thursday represents the second worse Tory performance in a May local election since 1996 and that only 2019 was worse. Does anyone know if this is true?

    2019 locals was certainly a bad night for the Tories, losing 1330 councillors from 3564 defending, for a projected national vote share of 28%., once again LD the big winners, and the Greens.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Which should make next years interesting, as additional losses from such a low base would be quite damning.
    Stating the obvious but there was close to zero correlation between LE19 and GE19.
    Yes, and the 2019 Euros were even worse for the Tories. It does set the picture for the 2023 English Local elections.

    I agree that General Elections are different.

    The 2019 local and Euro results basically forced May out, though, didn't they?

  • TazTaz Posts: 4,787
    edited May 8

    murali_s said:

    Ed Balls for the Wakefield by-election and then straight into a leadership election? Stranger things have happened...

    PS Good morning friends!

    I think Balls has ruled out standing in Wakefield.

    Someone called Kate Dearden is standing to be the labour candidate. Looks like one from the production line of modern political candidates. Policy wonk.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,490
    FPT - those GPT-3 comments.

    It's amazing that a computer can be that funny. I'm crying.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,490

    I don't think it would put Boris in a bind if KS stood down. I think he'd just carry on, because he can. People would say "Boris, you should stand down", and Boris would say "It's more important to deal with more important matter X" and that would be that.

    Laying Boris's exit is a much safer bet than laying Starmers.

    And, the political pressure is now off the former too (if they both stay) because the public will simply shrug and say, "they're all the same".
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,787
    Levelling up ideas to regenerate town centres which won’t have wealthy, entitled, southerners jealous resentment over the poorer parts of the country getting a few crumbs off the table.

    https://news.sky.com/story/pm-to-reveal-plans-to-revive-struggling-town-centres-in-queens-speech-12608197
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,939
    edited May 8

    Could Starmer 'do a Major' -- ie resign and stand in the subsequent leadership election?

    I think he would probably win such a contest, and he could do so in the knowledge that Boris would lose if he followed suit.

    Johnson couldn't stand in a subsequent leadership contest. The incumbent leader is barred from standing again immediately on departure under Tory rules.

    There isn't any bar to incumbent leaders standing in subsequent elections for Labour, as they are technically re-elected annually anyway, but he might struggle to get the nominations if he resigned. In any case, Starmer will have to go if he's fined as his credibility will be shot to pieces and he will be unable to achieve anything going forward.

    Johnson's is as well, it's just he doesn't care very much because he's shameless, stupid and is only in power for the lols not to actually do anything useful.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467
    This is rather strange too. Russian State controlled TV calling for a Beria like figure to control internal unrest. Sanctions and war losses are telling.

    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1523097022005403648?t=J1iskl0bIHAoE3TS0Gkjkg&s=19
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467
    edited May 8

    Foxy said:

    murali_s said:

    Foxy said:

    On another point - I have read that Thursday represents the second worse Tory performance in a May local election since 1996 and that only 2019 was worse. Does anyone know if this is true?

    2019 locals was certainly a bad night for the Tories, losing 1330 councillors from 3564 defending, for a projected national vote share of 28%., once again LD the big winners, and the Greens.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Which should make next years interesting, as additional losses from such a low base would be quite damning.
    Stating the obvious but there was close to zero correlation between LE19 and GE19.
    Yes, and the 2019 Euros were even worse for the Tories. It does set the picture for the 2023 English Local elections.

    I agree that General Elections are different.

    The 2019 local and Euro results basically forced May out, though, didn't they?

    Yes. Her position became untenable. Mostly it was the failure of her Brexit policy. 2019 was a strange political year, PhD's will be written on it.

    That half baked Brexit Deal leaves a poisoned chalice for the next numpty to take on Tory leadership.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,409
    Good morning, everyone.

    Dr. Foxy, Beria? FFS.

    If that's the 'solution' then the problem is either fictitious or vicious.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313
    Starmer resigning just as Scottish Labour are on an uptick is problematic for Anas Sarwar and his team. They need momentum, not the brakes being slammed on.

    In addition, SLab’s biggest advocate of “Muscular Unionism”, depute leader Jackie Baillie, has been reverse-ferreting the pre-election promise to not work with the Conservatives when building new council administrations. Entirely predictable, but guaranteed to immensely piss off a big chunk of the SLab activist base and voters.

    In fairness, the Labour leader in London is largely irrelevant to SLab’s fortunes, but if London elects another dumpling then a lot of Labour-sympathetic voters are going to wonder why they should bother keeping supporting the broken Union.

    I’m finding it very hard to spot a non-dumpling among Labour’s frontbench in Westminster.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,155
    Couldnt Starmer resign and then be reappointed by the Party, not sure BJ could repeat that as a stunt?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467

    Good morning, everyone.

    Dr. Foxy, Beria? FFS.

    If that's the 'solution' then the problem is either fictitious or vicious.

    I think it shows that potential unrest is not that far away in Russia. It isn't Ukranians burning down draft stations.

    The Gulag has returned already:

    Exclusive: A @theipaper investigation has uncovered 66 camps in remote parts of Russia where thousands of Ukrainians have been taken as regional officials follow orders from Moscow to disperse them across the country. 1/ https://t.co/EN88L5vnjh
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,409
    F1: might wait a bit for more markets. Got a couple of potential bets (one a bit obvious, the other a bit longer).
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313
    Labour performance, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Welsh Labour +14.3%
    Scottish Labour +7.6%
    English Labour +1.3%

    I think it is fair to conclude that Drakeford is Labour’s best leader, and Starmer is a dud.

    Up 1.3% against an horrifically poor Tory government, mid-term, is just eye-wateringly pathetic.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467
    Craziness is not retrocted to Russia. This is what Trumps former Defence Secretary has been saying:

    "Former President Donald J. Trump asked Mark T. Esper, his defense secretary, about the possibility of launching missiles into Mexico to “destroy the drug labs” and wipe out the cartels, maintaining that the United States’ involvement in a strike against its southern neighbor could be kept secret"

    "When Mr. Esper raised various objections, Mr. Trump said that “we could just shoot some Patriot missiles and take out the labs, quietly,” adding that “no one would know it was us.” Mr. Trump said he would just say that the United States had not conducted the strike, Mr. Esper recounts, writing that he would have thought it was a joke had he not been staring Mr. Trump in the face."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/05/us/politics/mark-esper-book-trump.html
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,584
    edited May 8

    Couldnt Starmer resign and then be reappointed by the Party, not sure BJ could repeat that as a stunt?

    It is not the Party that is the problem.

    It is the fact that Starmer now looks like a rampaging hypocrite with the public.

    His selling point is that he is dull ... 'honest and dull', 'straight and dull'.

    Take away 'honest' and 'straight', and we are just left with 'dull and dull'.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,713

    Labour performance, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Welsh Labour +14.3%
    Scottish Labour +7.6%
    English Labour +1.3%

    I think it is fair to conclude that Drakeford is Labour’s best leader, and Starmer is a dud.

    Up 1.3% against an horrifically poor Tory government, mid-term, is just eye-wateringly pathetic.

    Good morning one and all.

    On that basis it might be good for Labour is Starmer did stand down. And clearly if the police find anything he'll have to.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,939
    A question for those who know about energy markets:

    Why have standing charges gone up so much?

    Because that's what's going to make my energy bills go up by 150% from next month.

    I could understand higher payments for the fuel itself, but a near doubling of the standing charge? What's going on?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,584

    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,939


    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)

    That would be merely a trifle.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,198
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    At that stage, the leadership contest becomes one between Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson and Wes Streeting. Given the current membership profile, I suspect that it would be one of the latter two who would win.

    Wtf?!

    Once again your certainties have over-ridden your knowledge. You haven't even mentioned the most likely successor: the stand-out performer in parliament. Even the bookies have her as favourite once you discount Andy Burnham (who isn't even an MP).

    There are several other potentials successors should the event arise.

    As a Labour party member I speak with some knowledge of the way in which it operates and what its membership thinks. If you are referring to Yvette Cooper, she is certainly a possibility, though I suspect she would struggle on transfers (and may not even stand).

    No I wasn't. I really like Yvette but she's probably yesterday's leader.

    Rachel Reeves. The Shadow Chancellor. She has been brilliant in parliament.
    This speech she gave was fucking fantastic.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiItnQaLIug
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,261
    edited May 8


    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)

    Whatever happens now it is worth reminding ourselves that politics rarely runs in a straight line for any length of time and certainties about future election results are way off the line. The only time you can truly tell when politicians are telling fibs is when they open their mouths.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313
    edited May 8

    Labour performance, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Welsh Labour +14.3%
    Scottish Labour +7.6%
    English Labour +1.3%

    I think it is fair to conclude that Drakeford is Labour’s best leader, and Starmer is a dud.

    Up 1.3% against an horrifically poor Tory government, mid-term, is just eye-wateringly pathetic.

    Good morning one and all.

    On that basis it might be good for Labour is Starmer did stand down. And clearly if the police find anything he'll have to.
    Agreed. I was very, very optimistic about Starmer when he took over as Opposition leader. He has been dreadful in the role. The police are doing the Labour Party a favour.

    Hard not to see the Lib Dems and the SNP as the beneficiaries
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,261


    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)

    Regarding Ed Davey presumably he'll soon be making a speech telling the troops to get out there and prepare for government....
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,584
    edited May 8

    Labour performance, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Welsh Labour +14.3%
    Scottish Labour +7.6%
    English Labour +1.3%

    I think it is fair to conclude that Drakeford is Labour’s best leader, and Starmer is a dud.

    Up 1.3% against an horrifically poor Tory government, mid-term, is just eye-wateringly pathetic.

    The Drake is up against a MONUMENTALLY stupid Tory leader in Andrew 'RT' Davies in Wales.

    Labour have done well in Wales (where the number of seats falls from 40 to 32) and OK in Scotland (where the seat chances are poor) .... and pretty badly where the marginals are in England.

    Labour have 28/40 seats in Wales at the moment. Just to stand still, they need 28/32 in GE2024.

    Not impossible, but they'll need absolutely all the breaks to get to 28/32 of out Welsh seats.

    My guess is the redrawn Brecon & Radnor, Montgomery & Glyndwr, Ceredigion Preseli, Carmarthen and Dwyfor Meirionnydd are completely out of reach. Labour have never held those places in living memory. Monmouthshire only falls in a Tony landslide.

    So, at best, Labour will probably be at 26/32 at GE2024 -- so still down 2.
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,787
    Dura_Ace said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    At that stage, the leadership contest becomes one between Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson and Wes Streeting. Given the current membership profile, I suspect that it would be one of the latter two who would win.

    Wtf?!

    Once again your certainties have over-ridden your knowledge. You haven't even mentioned the most likely successor: the stand-out performer in parliament. Even the bookies have her as favourite once you discount Andy Burnham (who isn't even an MP).

    There are several other potentials successors should the event arise.

    As a Labour party member I speak with some knowledge of the way in which it operates and what its membership thinks. If you are referring to Yvette Cooper, she is certainly a possibility, though I suspect she would struggle on transfers (and may not even stand).

    No I wasn't. I really like Yvette but she's probably yesterday's leader.

    Rachel Reeves. The Shadow Chancellor. She has been brilliant in parliament.
    This speech she gave was fucking fantastic.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiItnQaLIug
    😂😂😂😂
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313

    Labour performance, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Welsh Labour +14.3%
    Scottish Labour +7.6%
    English Labour +1.3%

    I think it is fair to conclude that Drakeford is Labour’s best leader, and Starmer is a dud.

    Up 1.3% against an horrifically poor Tory government, mid-term, is just eye-wateringly pathetic.

    The Drake is up against a MONUMENTALLY stupid Tory leader in Andrew 'RT' Davies in Wales.

    Labour have done well in Wales (where the number of seats falls from 40 to 32) and OK in Scotland (where the seat chances are poor) .... and pretty badly where the marginals are in England.

    Labour have 28/40 seats in Wales at the moment. Just to stand still, they need 28/32 in GE2024.

    Not impossible, but they'll need absolutely all the breaks to get to 28/32 of out Welsh seats.

    My guess is the redrawn Brecon & Radnor, Montgomery & Glyndwr, Ceredigion Preseli, Carmarthen and Dwyfor Meirionnydd are completely out of reach. Labour have never held those places in living memory. Monmouthshire only falls in a Tony landslide.

    So, at best, Labour will probably be at 26/32 at GE2024 -- so still down 2.
    I’d forgotten about that. No wonder Lab Maj is drifting. 5.1 looks an obvious Lay.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,713

    Labour performance, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Welsh Labour +14.3%
    Scottish Labour +7.6%
    English Labour +1.3%

    I think it is fair to conclude that Drakeford is Labour’s best leader, and Starmer is a dud.

    Up 1.3% against an horrifically poor Tory government, mid-term, is just eye-wateringly pathetic.

    The Drake is up against a MONUMENTALLY stupid Tory leader in Andrew 'RT' Davies in Wales.

    Labour have done well in Wales (where the number of seats falls from 40 to 32) and OK in Scotland (where the seat chances are poor) .... and pretty badly where the marginals are in England.

    Labour have 28/40 seats in Wales at the moment. Just to stand still, they need 28/32 in GE2024.

    Not impossible, but they'll need absolutely all the breaks to get to 28/32 of out Welsh seats.

    My guess is the redrawn Brecon & Radnor, Montgomery & Glyndwr, Ceredigion Preseli, Carmarthen and Dwyfor Meirionnydd are completely out of reach. Labour have never held those places in living memory. Monmouthshire only falls in a Tony landslide.

    So, at best, Labour will probably be at 26/32 at GE2024 -- so still down 2.
    Labour held the last three not too long ago. Not quite in the form they are now, or will be, of course.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,334
    felix said:


    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)

    Whatever happens now it is worth reminding ourselves that politics rarely runs in a straight line for any length of time and certainties about future election results are way off the line. The only time you can truly tell when politicians are telling fibs is when they open their mouths.
    TBF, it must be almost impossible for a politician to run their lives perfectly when trying to run a top job. The amount of undeserved ordure they get dumped on them by opponents (and not just those in another party) is amazing.

    Remember the controversy of Boris' bike ride during lockdown? How dare he?

    On the previous thread, someone expressed that Starmer was running the campaign for a really important by-election. Well, Boris was trying to run the country through a pandemic. The stress on everyone involved must have been immense.

    We want politicians to be 'like' us. Yet we also want them to be perfect in all ways. Sadly, I am not perfect. No-one reading this is perfect. If we were put under the same minute critical examination that Johnson, Starmer or any top politician has been, then we would have stories about us.

    Very few people are angels. And they might not have the skills needed to run a country.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632
    If there was a vacancy, my CLP would nominate Nandy or whoever the left put up (RLB),
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    edited May 8
    So according to their own written records this was planned food and drink at the end of the day, with no work scheduled for afterwards?

    I can't see any difference between this and any other parties including the BYOB party, or the Prince Philip funeral eve party (held the same month) now to be honest.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,849

    On another point - I have read that Thursday represents the second worse Tory performance in a May local election since 1996 and that only 2019 was worse. Does anyone know if this is true?

    In terms of lost seats, that's correct. In terms of NEV, 2013 was worse; in terms of Labour lead, 2012 was worse.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,223

    felix said:


    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)

    Whatever happens now it is worth reminding ourselves that politics rarely runs in a straight line for any length of time and certainties about future election results are way off the line. The only time you can truly tell when politicians are telling fibs is when they open their mouths.
    TBF, it must be almost impossible for a politician to run their lives perfectly when trying to run a top job. The amount of undeserved ordure they get dumped on them by opponents (and not just those in another party) is amazing.

    Remember the controversy of Boris' bike ride during lockdown? How dare he?

    On the previous thread, someone expressed that Starmer was running the campaign for a really important by-election. Well, Boris was trying to run the country through a pandemic. The stress on everyone involved must have been immense.

    We want politicians to be 'like' us. Yet we also want them to be perfect in all ways. Sadly, I am not perfect. No-one reading this is perfect. If we were put under the same minute critical examination that Johnson, Starmer or any top politician has been, then we would have stories about us.

    Very few people are angels. And they might not have the skills needed to run a country.
    That is the very reason why in the past I have been an activist, but have turned down every request to stand for any public position.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632

    So according to their own written records this was planned food and drink at the end of the day, with no work scheduled for afterwards?

    I can't see any difference between this and the BYOB party now to be honest.

    You can’t tell the difference between a meal and a ‘party? Breakfast must be a hoot round your place this morning.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,939

    Labour performance, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Welsh Labour +14.3%
    Scottish Labour +7.6%
    English Labour +1.3%

    I think it is fair to conclude that Drakeford is Labour’s best leader, and Starmer is a dud.

    Up 1.3% against an horrifically poor Tory government, mid-term, is just eye-wateringly pathetic.

    The Drake is up against a MONUMENTALLY stupid Tory leader in Andrew 'RT' Davies in Wales.

    Labour have done well in Wales (where the number of seats falls from 40 to 32) and OK in Scotland (where the seat chances are poor) .... and pretty badly where the marginals are in England.

    Labour have 28/40 seats in Wales at the moment. Just to stand still, they need 28/32 in GE2024.

    Not impossible, but they'll need absolutely all the breaks to get to 28/32 of out Welsh seats.

    My guess is the redrawn Brecon & Radnor, Montgomery & Glyndwr, Ceredigion Preseli, Carmarthen and Dwyfor Meirionnydd are completely out of reach. Labour have never held those places in living memory. Monmouthshire only falls in a Tony landslide.

    So, at best, Labour will probably be at 26/32 at GE2024 -- so still down 2.
    Would be very surprising if they retook Ynys Môn even though on paper it's an easy target. That's a seat which doesn't change its MPs very often, no matter how useless they are.

    You do have to wonder a bit about the Welsh Tories re-electing RT. Man's more useless than a chocolate furnace.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,849

    felix said:


    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)

    Whatever happens now it is worth reminding ourselves that politics rarely runs in a straight line for any length of time and certainties about future election results are way off the line. The only time you can truly tell when politicians are telling fibs is when they open their mouths.
    TBF, it must be almost impossible for a politician to run their lives perfectly when trying to run a top job. The amount of undeserved ordure they get dumped on them by opponents (and not just those in another party) is amazing.

    Remember the controversy of Boris' bike ride during lockdown? How dare he?

    On the previous thread, someone expressed that Starmer was running the campaign for a really important by-election. Well, Boris was trying to run the country through a pandemic. The stress on everyone involved must have been immense.

    We want politicians to be 'like' us. Yet we also want them to be perfect in all ways. Sadly, I am not perfect. No-one reading this is perfect. If we were put under the same minute critical examination that Johnson, Starmer or any top politician has been, then we would have stories about us.

    Very few people are angels. And they might not have the skills needed to run a country.
    There's a lot to nail Boris for. But, "partygate" is small beer. It ought to be small beer for Starmer, but then, he's made so much of the issue.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,170
    The real chance of SKS going and Boris staying + the possibility of a daft new Labour leader shows why the odds of a Tory maj at the next GE is being under rated. It is still at about 45%.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,939
    Jonathan said:

    If there was a vacancy, my CLP would nominate Nandy or whoever the left put up (RLB),

    They surely wouldn't put Wrong Daily forward again?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632
    Sean_F said:

    felix said:


    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)

    Whatever happens now it is worth reminding ourselves that politics rarely runs in a straight line for any length of time and certainties about future election results are way off the line. The only time you can truly tell when politicians are telling fibs is when they open their mouths.
    TBF, it must be almost impossible for a politician to run their lives perfectly when trying to run a top job. The amount of undeserved ordure they get dumped on them by opponents (and not just those in another party) is amazing.

    Remember the controversy of Boris' bike ride during lockdown? How dare he?

    On the previous thread, someone expressed that Starmer was running the campaign for a really important by-election. Well, Boris was trying to run the country through a pandemic. The stress on everyone involved must have been immense.

    We want politicians to be 'like' us. Yet we also want them to be perfect in all ways. Sadly, I am not perfect. No-one reading this is perfect. If we were put under the same minute critical examination that Johnson, Starmer or any top politician has been, then we would have stories about us.

    Very few people are angels. And they might not have the skills needed to run a country.
    There's a lot to nail Boris for. But, "partygate" is small beer. It ought to be small beer for Starmer, but then, he's made so much of the issue.
    It’s not small beer to those who had to struggle with the regulations, like not visiting dying relatives for example. Those that make the law should follow the law. If it was a bad law, that is the fault of the law maker.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,584
    edited May 8

    Labour performance, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Welsh Labour +14.3%
    Scottish Labour +7.6%
    English Labour +1.3%

    I think it is fair to conclude that Drakeford is Labour’s best leader, and Starmer is a dud.

    Up 1.3% against an horrifically poor Tory government, mid-term, is just eye-wateringly pathetic.

    The Drake is up against a MONUMENTALLY stupid Tory leader in Andrew 'RT' Davies in Wales.

    Labour have done well in Wales (where the number of seats falls from 40 to 32) and OK in Scotland (where the seat chances are poor) .... and pretty badly where the marginals are in England.

    Labour have 28/40 seats in Wales at the moment. Just to stand still, they need 28/32 in GE2024.

    Not impossible, but they'll need absolutely all the breaks to get to 28/32 of out Welsh seats.

    My guess is the redrawn Brecon & Radnor, Montgomery & Glyndwr, Ceredigion Preseli, Carmarthen and Dwyfor Meirionnydd are completely out of reach. Labour have never held those places in living memory. Monmouthshire only falls in a Tony landslide.

    So, at best, Labour will probably be at 26/32 at GE2024 -- so still down 2.
    Labour held the last three not too long ago. Not quite in the form they are now, or will be, of course.
    Montgomeryshire is the only constituency Labour have never held.

    Ceredigion Labour last held in 1966; Merioneth 1970; Caernarfon 1970; Brecon & Radnor 1970; Carmarthen East & Dinefwr in 1997, Monmouth in 2001.

    With the exception of Monmouth in a bad Tory year, I don't think Labour will take the others. Rural and Welsh-speaking Wales has moved decisively away from Labour.

    So, my guess is that at best -- assuming Labour take Pembrokeshire and all the Tory marginals in North Wales -- they are still down by 2 in Wales in 2024.

    It is because the earlier boundaries were of course very favourable to Labour with plenty of small Valleys seats.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    If there was a vacancy, my CLP would nominate Nandy or whoever the left put up (RLB),

    They surely wouldn't put Wrong Daily forward again?
    It could be very messy. The left will try to find someone, anyone. Even if they don’t manage it, akey leadership campaign issue will be what to do with Corbyn. Someone will break cover to court the 20-30% of the left.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,939
    Sean_F said:

    felix said:


    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)

    Whatever happens now it is worth reminding ourselves that politics rarely runs in a straight line for any length of time and certainties about future election results are way off the line. The only time you can truly tell when politicians are telling fibs is when they open their mouths.
    TBF, it must be almost impossible for a politician to run their lives perfectly when trying to run a top job. The amount of undeserved ordure they get dumped on them by opponents (and not just those in another party) is amazing.

    Remember the controversy of Boris' bike ride during lockdown? How dare he?

    On the previous thread, someone expressed that Starmer was running the campaign for a really important by-election. Well, Boris was trying to run the country through a pandemic. The stress on everyone involved must have been immense.

    We want politicians to be 'like' us. Yet we also want them to be perfect in all ways. Sadly, I am not perfect. No-one reading this is perfect. If we were put under the same minute critical examination that Johnson, Starmer or any top politician has been, then we would have stories about us.

    Very few people are angels. And they might not have the skills needed to run a country.
    There's a lot to nail Boris for. But, "partygate" is small beer. It ought to be small beer for Starmer, but then, he's made so much of the issue.
    I disagree. It shows his contempt for his own laws and for those he expected to follow them. It's also an issue because it feeds in to the perception that he thinks rules are for lesser mortals, not for the Great Leader. Finally, it's an issue because it happened repeatedly, he's lied about it and blamed others to deflect attention from his own culpability.

    In Starmer's case, it will matter because he's been running with it for weeks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,939

    Labour performance, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Welsh Labour +14.3%
    Scottish Labour +7.6%
    English Labour +1.3%

    I think it is fair to conclude that Drakeford is Labour’s best leader, and Starmer is a dud.

    Up 1.3% against an horrifically poor Tory government, mid-term, is just eye-wateringly pathetic.

    The Drake is up against a MONUMENTALLY stupid Tory leader in Andrew 'RT' Davies in Wales.

    Labour have done well in Wales (where the number of seats falls from 40 to 32) and OK in Scotland (where the seat chances are poor) .... and pretty badly where the marginals are in England.

    Labour have 28/40 seats in Wales at the moment. Just to stand still, they need 28/32 in GE2024.

    Not impossible, but they'll need absolutely all the breaks to get to 28/32 of out Welsh seats.

    My guess is the redrawn Brecon & Radnor, Montgomery & Glyndwr, Ceredigion Preseli, Carmarthen and Dwyfor Meirionnydd are completely out of reach. Labour have never held those places in living memory. Monmouthshire only falls in a Tony landslide.

    So, at best, Labour will probably be at 26/32 at GE2024 -- so still down 2.
    Labour held the last three not too long ago. Not quite in the form they are now, or will be, of course.
    Montgomeryshire is the only constituency Labour have never held.

    Ceredigion Labour last held in 1966; Merioneth 1970; Caernarfon 1970; Brecon & Radnor 1970; Carmarthen East & Dinefwr in 1997, Monmouth in 2001.

    With the exception of Monmouth in a bad Tory year, I don't Labour will take the others. Rural and Welsh-speaking Wales has moved decisively away from Labour.

    So, my guess is that at best -- assuming Labour take Pembrokeshire and all the Tory marginals in North Wales -- they are still down by 2 in Wales in 2024.

    It is because the earlier boundaries were of course very favourable to Labour with plenty of small Valleys seats.
    Labour actually won Ceredigion in 1970.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,334
    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:


    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)

    Whatever happens now it is worth reminding ourselves that politics rarely runs in a straight line for any length of time and certainties about future election results are way off the line. The only time you can truly tell when politicians are telling fibs is when they open their mouths.
    TBF, it must be almost impossible for a politician to run their lives perfectly when trying to run a top job. The amount of undeserved ordure they get dumped on them by opponents (and not just those in another party) is amazing.

    Remember the controversy of Boris' bike ride during lockdown? How dare he?

    On the previous thread, someone expressed that Starmer was running the campaign for a really important by-election. Well, Boris was trying to run the country through a pandemic. The stress on everyone involved must have been immense.

    We want politicians to be 'like' us. Yet we also want them to be perfect in all ways. Sadly, I am not perfect. No-one reading this is perfect. If we were put under the same minute critical examination that Johnson, Starmer or any top politician has been, then we would have stories about us.

    Very few people are angels. And they might not have the skills needed to run a country.
    There's a lot to nail Boris for. But, "partygate" is small beer. It ought to be small beer for Starmer, but then, he's made so much of the issue.
    It’s not small beer to those who had to struggle with the regulations, like not visiting dying relatives for example. Those that make the law should follow the law. If it was a bad law, that is the fault of the law maker.
    Well, the same applies to Starmer, doesn't it? Why were people getting pi**ed at a do whilst others could not visit dying relatives? That's not small beer to those who had to struggle with the regulations.

    Starmer voted for the law. Did he say it was a bad law when he voted for it (I assume not, but someone'll have more info.)

    Starmer and Labour have been caught by their own witch hunt. It is pure incompetence on their part not to realise the trap they had laid for themselves.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:


    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)

    Whatever happens now it is worth reminding ourselves that politics rarely runs in a straight line for any length of time and certainties about future election results are way off the line. The only time you can truly tell when politicians are telling fibs is when they open their mouths.
    TBF, it must be almost impossible for a politician to run their lives perfectly when trying to run a top job. The amount of undeserved ordure they get dumped on them by opponents (and not just those in another party) is amazing.

    Remember the controversy of Boris' bike ride during lockdown? How dare he?

    On the previous thread, someone expressed that Starmer was running the campaign for a really important by-election. Well, Boris was trying to run the country through a pandemic. The stress on everyone involved must have been immense.

    We want politicians to be 'like' us. Yet we also want them to be perfect in all ways. Sadly, I am not perfect. No-one reading this is perfect. If we were put under the same minute critical examination that Johnson, Starmer or any top politician has been, then we would have stories about us.

    Very few people are angels. And they might not have the skills needed to run a country.
    There's a lot to nail Boris for. But, "partygate" is small beer. It ought to be small beer for Starmer, but then, he's made so much of the issue.
    I disagree. It shows his contempt for his own laws and for those he expected to follow them. It's also an issue because it feeds in to the perception that he thinks rules are for lesser mortals, not for the Great Leader. Finally, it's an issue because it happened repeatedly, he's lied about it and blamed others to deflect attention from his own culpability.

    In Starmer's case, it will matter because he's been running with it for weeks.
    Quite right. A PM not obeying his own laws is not ok. If the law is wrong, get rid of it, don’t break it.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,584
    ydoethur said:

    Labour performance, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Welsh Labour +14.3%
    Scottish Labour +7.6%
    English Labour +1.3%

    I think it is fair to conclude that Drakeford is Labour’s best leader, and Starmer is a dud.

    Up 1.3% against an horrifically poor Tory government, mid-term, is just eye-wateringly pathetic.

    The Drake is up against a MONUMENTALLY stupid Tory leader in Andrew 'RT' Davies in Wales.

    Labour have done well in Wales (where the number of seats falls from 40 to 32) and OK in Scotland (where the seat chances are poor) .... and pretty badly where the marginals are in England.

    Labour have 28/40 seats in Wales at the moment. Just to stand still, they need 28/32 in GE2024.

    Not impossible, but they'll need absolutely all the breaks to get to 28/32 of out Welsh seats.

    My guess is the redrawn Brecon & Radnor, Montgomery & Glyndwr, Ceredigion Preseli, Carmarthen and Dwyfor Meirionnydd are completely out of reach. Labour have never held those places in living memory. Monmouthshire only falls in a Tony landslide.

    So, at best, Labour will probably be at 26/32 at GE2024 -- so still down 2.
    Labour held the last three not too long ago. Not quite in the form they are now, or will be, of course.
    Montgomeryshire is the only constituency Labour have never held.

    Ceredigion Labour last held in 1966; Merioneth 1970; Caernarfon 1970; Brecon & Radnor 1970; Carmarthen East & Dinefwr in 1997, Monmouth in 2001.

    With the exception of Monmouth in a bad Tory year, I don't Labour will take the others. Rural and Welsh-speaking Wales has moved decisively away from Labour.

    So, my guess is that at best -- assuming Labour take Pembrokeshire and all the Tory marginals in North Wales -- they are still down by 2 in Wales in 2024.

    It is because the earlier boundaries were of course very favourable to Labour with plenty of small Valleys seats.
    Labour actually won Ceredigion in 1970.
    You are right.

    I thought Elystan Morgan (who I like) won his surprise victory in 1966, but it was even more remarkably in the Labour defeat of 1970.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,939
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:


    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)

    Whatever happens now it is worth reminding ourselves that politics rarely runs in a straight line for any length of time and certainties about future election results are way off the line. The only time you can truly tell when politicians are telling fibs is when they open their mouths.
    TBF, it must be almost impossible for a politician to run their lives perfectly when trying to run a top job. The amount of undeserved ordure they get dumped on them by opponents (and not just those in another party) is amazing.

    Remember the controversy of Boris' bike ride during lockdown? How dare he?

    On the previous thread, someone expressed that Starmer was running the campaign for a really important by-election. Well, Boris was trying to run the country through a pandemic. The stress on everyone involved must have been immense.

    We want politicians to be 'like' us. Yet we also want them to be perfect in all ways. Sadly, I am not perfect. No-one reading this is perfect. If we were put under the same minute critical examination that Johnson, Starmer or any top politician has been, then we would have stories about us.

    Very few people are angels. And they might not have the skills needed to run a country.
    There's a lot to nail Boris for. But, "partygate" is small beer. It ought to be small beer for Starmer, but then, he's made so much of the issue.
    I disagree. It shows his contempt for his own laws and for those he expected to follow them. It's also an issue because it feeds in to the perception that he thinks rules are for lesser mortals, not for the Great Leader. Finally, it's an issue because it happened repeatedly, he's lied about it and blamed others to deflect attention from his own culpability.

    In Starmer's case, it will matter because he's been running with it for weeks.
    Quite right. A PM not obeying his own laws is not ok. If the law is wrong, get rid of it, don’t break it.
    If it had been a one-off, due to confusion, and he'd held his hands up and apologised, it would have been OK.

    But it isn't. And it confirms in a very public way that he's a liar and a fool who holds the rest of us in contempt.

    Downing Street thought they were above the laws they made, 'because they were working so hard and under so much stress.' Bollocks. They were under one tenth of the stress of doctors or nurses, and they kept the laws. And many times Downing Street staff were doing things that made matters worse, not better.

    And it's also not just parties. Quarantine was broken. Lockdown was ignored. No wonder Covid spread like wildfire. The whole thing shows an arrogance and a lack of common sense that is also a real political issue. Such people should not be running the country because they're clearly not fit to.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,939
    edited May 8

    ydoethur said:

    Labour performance, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Welsh Labour +14.3%
    Scottish Labour +7.6%
    English Labour +1.3%

    I think it is fair to conclude that Drakeford is Labour’s best leader, and Starmer is a dud.

    Up 1.3% against an horrifically poor Tory government, mid-term, is just eye-wateringly pathetic.

    The Drake is up against a MONUMENTALLY stupid Tory leader in Andrew 'RT' Davies in Wales.

    Labour have done well in Wales (where the number of seats falls from 40 to 32) and OK in Scotland (where the seat chances are poor) .... and pretty badly where the marginals are in England.

    Labour have 28/40 seats in Wales at the moment. Just to stand still, they need 28/32 in GE2024.

    Not impossible, but they'll need absolutely all the breaks to get to 28/32 of out Welsh seats.

    My guess is the redrawn Brecon & Radnor, Montgomery & Glyndwr, Ceredigion Preseli, Carmarthen and Dwyfor Meirionnydd are completely out of reach. Labour have never held those places in living memory. Monmouthshire only falls in a Tony landslide.

    So, at best, Labour will probably be at 26/32 at GE2024 -- so still down 2.
    Labour held the last three not too long ago. Not quite in the form they are now, or will be, of course.
    Montgomeryshire is the only constituency Labour have never held.

    Ceredigion Labour last held in 1966; Merioneth 1970; Caernarfon 1970; Brecon & Radnor 1970; Carmarthen East & Dinefwr in 1997, Monmouth in 2001.

    With the exception of Monmouth in a bad Tory year, I don't Labour will take the others. Rural and Welsh-speaking Wales has moved decisively away from Labour.

    So, my guess is that at best -- assuming Labour take Pembrokeshire and all the Tory marginals in North Wales -- they are still down by 2 in Wales in 2024.

    It is because the earlier boundaries were of course very favourable to Labour with plenty of small Valleys seats.
    Labour actually won Ceredigion in 1970.
    You are right.

    I thought Elystan Morgan (who I like) won his surprise victory in 1966, but it was even more remarkably in the Labour defeat of 1970.
    It's not that remarkable. The Liberals were brutally squeezed in that election, losing half of their MPs due to a surge in particularly the Tory vote. But in Cardiganshire what actually killed them was a surge in the Plaid vote. Labour went backwards in that election as well, but by a bit less, so held the seat by default.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632
    edited May 8

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:


    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)

    Whatever happens now it is worth reminding ourselves that politics rarely runs in a straight line for any length of time and certainties about future election results are way off the line. The only time you can truly tell when politicians are telling fibs is when they open their mouths.
    TBF, it must be almost impossible for a politician to run their lives perfectly when trying to run a top job. The amount of undeserved ordure they get dumped on them by opponents (and not just those in another party) is amazing.

    Remember the controversy of Boris' bike ride during lockdown? How dare he?

    On the previous thread, someone expressed that Starmer was running the campaign for a really important by-election. Well, Boris was trying to run the country through a pandemic. The stress on everyone involved must have been immense.

    We want politicians to be 'like' us. Yet we also want them to be perfect in all ways. Sadly, I am not perfect. No-one reading this is perfect. If we were put under the same minute critical examination that Johnson, Starmer or any top politician has been, then we would have stories about us.

    Very few people are angels. And they might not have the skills needed to run a country.
    There's a lot to nail Boris for. But, "partygate" is small beer. It ought to be small beer for Starmer, but then, he's made so much of the issue.
    It’s not small beer to those who had to struggle with the regulations, like not visiting dying relatives for example. Those that make the law should follow the law. If it was a bad law, that is the fault of the law maker.
    Well, the same applies to Starmer, doesn't it? Why were people getting pi**ed at a do whilst others could not visit dying relatives? That's not small beer to those who had to struggle with the regulations.

    Starmer voted for the law. Did he say it was a bad law when he voted for it (I assume not, but someone'll have more info.)

    Starmer and Labour have been caught by their own witch hunt. It is pure incompetence on their part not to realise the trap they had laid for themselves.
    Personally I think it’s less serious than a PM disobeying his own law, but as LoO Starmer also has some responsibility here. It doesn’t rally matter in any case politically after Starmer called for the PM to resign.

    If Starmer is fined, the wise move politically might be to resign. If Starmer isn’t fined, some people will owe him an apology. Either way Boris should go. His offence is proven and as PM it is the most serious.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    Jonathan said:

    So according to their own written records this was planned food and drink at the end of the day, with no work scheduled for afterwards?

    I can't see any difference between this and the BYOB party now to be honest.

    You can’t tell the difference between a meal and a ‘party? Breakfast must be a hoot round your place this morning.
    An hour and a half scheduled for food and drinks at the end of the day, after work has finished.

    How is that not a party, but having food at 1pm and then returning to work is?

    They held an after work party and had no intention of returning to work after their party.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,490
    There's not a single thing I understand about Drakeford's appeal.

    He looks like he's escaped from Wilson's 1974 administration:


  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632

    Jonathan said:

    So according to their own written records this was planned food and drink at the end of the day, with no work scheduled for afterwards?

    I can't see any difference between this and the BYOB party now to be honest.

    You can’t tell the difference between a meal and a ‘party? Breakfast must be a hoot round your place this morning.
    An hour and a half scheduled for food and drinks at the end of the day, after work has finished.

    How is that not a party, but having food at 1pm and then returning to work is?

    They held an after work party and had no intention of returning to work after their party.
    Done that plenty of times at work after a long slog at work in workshops and meetings. It’s about grabbing some sustenance and talking about the work informally before crawling into bed. Did it last week, when the boss came over from Germany. The last thing it is, is a party.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 51,464
    ydoethur said:

    Labour performance, in terms of numbers of councillors:

    Welsh Labour +14.3%
    Scottish Labour +7.6%
    English Labour +1.3%

    I think it is fair to conclude that Drakeford is Labour’s best leader, and Starmer is a dud.

    Up 1.3% against an horrifically poor Tory government, mid-term, is just eye-wateringly pathetic.

    The Drake is up against a MONUMENTALLY stupid Tory leader in Andrew 'RT' Davies in Wales.

    Labour have done well in Wales (where the number of seats falls from 40 to 32) and OK in Scotland (where the seat chances are poor) .... and pretty badly where the marginals are in England.

    Labour have 28/40 seats in Wales at the moment. Just to stand still, they need 28/32 in GE2024.

    Not impossible, but they'll need absolutely all the breaks to get to 28/32 of out Welsh seats.

    My guess is the redrawn Brecon & Radnor, Montgomery & Glyndwr, Ceredigion Preseli, Carmarthen and Dwyfor Meirionnydd are completely out of reach. Labour have never held those places in living memory. Monmouthshire only falls in a Tony landslide.

    So, at best, Labour will probably be at 26/32 at GE2024 -- so still down 2.
    Would be very surprising if they retook Ynys Môn even though on paper it's an easy target. That's a seat which doesn't change its MPs very often, no matter how useless they are.

    You do have to wonder a bit about the Welsh Tories re-electing RT. Man's more useless than a chocolate furnace.
    This is why it should remain conservative

    https://www.northwaleschronicle.co.uk/news/20045292.ynys-mon-ms-chances-new-nuclear-power-station-wylfa-very-positive/
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    edited May 8
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:


    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)

    Whatever happens now it is worth reminding ourselves that politics rarely runs in a straight line for any length of time and certainties about future election results are way off the line. The only time you can truly tell when politicians are telling fibs is when they open their mouths.
    TBF, it must be almost impossible for a politician to run their lives perfectly when trying to run a top job. The amount of undeserved ordure they get dumped on them by opponents (and not just those in another party) is amazing.

    Remember the controversy of Boris' bike ride during lockdown? How dare he?

    On the previous thread, someone expressed that Starmer was running the campaign for a really important by-election. Well, Boris was trying to run the country through a pandemic. The stress on everyone involved must have been immense.

    We want politicians to be 'like' us. Yet we also want them to be perfect in all ways. Sadly, I am not perfect. No-one reading this is perfect. If we were put under the same minute critical examination that Johnson, Starmer or any top politician has been, then we would have stories about us.

    Very few people are angels. And they might not have the skills needed to run a country.
    There's a lot to nail Boris for. But, "partygate" is small beer. It ought to be small beer for Starmer, but then, he's made so much of the issue.
    It’s not small beer to those who had to struggle with the regulations, like not visiting dying relatives for example. Those that make the law should follow the law. If it was a bad law, that is the fault of the law maker.
    Well, the same applies to Starmer, doesn't it? Why were people getting pi**ed at a do whilst others could not visit dying relatives? That's not small beer to those who had to struggle with the regulations.

    Starmer voted for the law. Did he say it was a bad law when he voted for it (I assume not, but someone'll have more info.)

    Starmer and Labour have been caught by their own witch hunt. It is pure incompetence on their part not to realise the trap they had laid for themselves.
    Personally I think it’s less serious than a PM disobeying his own law, but as LoO Starmer also has some responsibility here. It doesn’t rally matter in any case politically after Starmer called for the PM to resign.

    If Starmer is fined, the wise move politically might be to resign. If Starmer isn’t fined, some people will owe him an apology. Either way Boris should go. His offence is proven and as PM it is the most serious.
    Starmer is a law maker too. If he'd been opposing the restrictions then it would be less serious but he actually was opposing the relaxation of the restrictions after his own party. Hypocrite.

    Plus he's every bit as guilty or more as Boris is. After calling for him to go. Hypocrite.

    Plus he's outright lied about the events saying he was eating between work, when his own memo says the party was at the end of the day. Liar.

    I've said since last year Boris should go, but Starmer is every bit as bad if not worse for the sheer hypocrisy too.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 3,530
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    So according to their own written records this was planned food and drink at the end of the day, with no work scheduled for afterwards?

    I can't see any difference between this and the BYOB party now to be honest.

    You can’t tell the difference between a meal and a ‘party? Breakfast must be a hoot round your place this morning.
    An hour and a half scheduled for food and drinks at the end of the day, after work has finished.

    How is that not a party, but having food at 1pm and then returning to work is?

    They held an after work party and had no intention of returning to work after their party.
    Done that plenty of times at work after a long slog at work in workshops and meetings. It’s about grabbing some sustenance and talking about the work informally before crawling into bed. Did it last week, when the boss came over from Germany. The last thing it is, is a party.
    That's not what you were saying when the conversation was about Downing Street though was it? 🤔
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,286
    "My expectation is that Starmer would stand down if he was fined which would put the Prime Minister in a bind, the contrast in him and Starmer would make it impossible for the PM to continue".

    That madfe me LOL! You're on form this morning Eagle!

    'But Prime Minister you were discovered quaffing Don Perignon in a party hat while shagging a goat and the Leader of the opposition has just resigned for having a curry after a day's campaigning..."

    "Arf! Arf!

  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,971

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:


    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)

    Whatever happens now it is worth reminding ourselves that politics rarely runs in a straight line for any length of time and certainties about future election results are way off the line. The only time you can truly tell when politicians are telling fibs is when they open their mouths.
    TBF, it must be almost impossible for a politician to run their lives perfectly when trying to run a top job. The amount of undeserved ordure they get dumped on them by opponents (and not just those in another party) is amazing.

    Remember the controversy of Boris' bike ride during lockdown? How dare he?

    On the previous thread, someone expressed that Starmer was running the campaign for a really important by-election. Well, Boris was trying to run the country through a pandemic. The stress on everyone involved must have been immense.

    We want politicians to be 'like' us. Yet we also want them to be perfect in all ways. Sadly, I am not perfect. No-one reading this is perfect. If we were put under the same minute critical examination that Johnson, Starmer or any top politician has been, then we would have stories about us.

    Very few people are angels. And they might not have the skills needed to run a country.
    There's a lot to nail Boris for. But, "partygate" is small beer. It ought to be small beer for Starmer, but then, he's made so much of the issue.
    It’s not small beer to those who had to struggle with the regulations, like not visiting dying relatives for example. Those that make the law should follow the law. If it was a bad law, that is the fault of the law maker.
    Well, the same applies to Starmer, doesn't it? Why were people getting pi**ed at a do whilst others could not visit dying relatives? That's not small beer to those who had to struggle with the regulations.

    Starmer voted for the law. Did he say it was a bad law when he voted for it (I assume not, but someone'll have more info.)

    Starmer and Labour have been caught by their own witch hunt. It is pure incompetence on their part not to realise the trap they had laid for themselves.
    Personally I think it’s less serious than a PM disobeying his own law, but as LoO Starmer also has some responsibility here. It doesn’t rally matter in any case politically after Starmer called for the PM to resign.

    If Starmer is fined, the wise move politically might be to resign. If Starmer isn’t fined, some people will owe him an apology. Either way Boris should go. His offence is proven and as PM it is the most serious.
    Starmer is a law maker too. If he'd been opposing the restrictions then it would be less serious but he actually was opposing the relaxation of the restrictions after his own party. Hypocrite.

    Plus he's every bit as guilty or more as Boris is. After calling for him to go. Hypocrite.

    Plus he's outright lied about the events saying he was eating between work, when his own memo says the party was at the end of the day. Liar.

    I've said since last year Boris should go, but Starmer is every bit as bad if not worse for the sheer hypocrisy too.
    Would your view change if Johnson ends up with four or five FPNs?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,490
    Jonathan said:

    There's not a single thing I understand about Drakeford's appeal.

    He looks like he's escaped from Wilson's 1974 administration:

    You voted for Boris and Mogg, who looks like they escaped from a silent movie parody of the worst excesses of the British aristocracy.
    I voted for Damian Hinds.

    Did you vote Labour in December 2019?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,939
    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:


    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)

    Whatever happens now it is worth reminding ourselves that politics rarely runs in a straight line for any length of time and certainties about future election results are way off the line. The only time you can truly tell when politicians are telling fibs is when they open their mouths.
    TBF, it must be almost impossible for a politician to run their lives perfectly when trying to run a top job. The amount of undeserved ordure they get dumped on them by opponents (and not just those in another party) is amazing.

    Remember the controversy of Boris' bike ride during lockdown? How dare he?

    On the previous thread, someone expressed that Starmer was running the campaign for a really important by-election. Well, Boris was trying to run the country through a pandemic. The stress on everyone involved must have been immense.

    We want politicians to be 'like' us. Yet we also want them to be perfect in all ways. Sadly, I am not perfect. No-one reading this is perfect. If we were put under the same minute critical examination that Johnson, Starmer or any top politician has been, then we would have stories about us.

    Very few people are angels. And they might not have the skills needed to run a country.
    There's a lot to nail Boris for. But, "partygate" is small beer. It ought to be small beer for Starmer, but then, he's made so much of the issue.
    I disagree. It shows his contempt for his own laws and for those he expected to follow them. It's also an issue because it feeds in to the perception that he thinks rules are for lesser mortals, not for the Great Leader. Finally, it's an issue because it happened repeatedly, he's lied about it and blamed others to deflect attention from his own culpability.

    In Starmer's case, it will matter because he's been running with it for weeks.
    "It shows his contempt for his own laws and for those he expected to follow them." The government didn't expect the public to follow the laws as assiduously as proved be the case. They have said this repeatedly. The laws were to dampen the spread of the virus; they were never intended to be strictly enforced and police forces were reigned in accordingly. As I have repeatedly argued, this was guidance masquerading as laws. The aim was to increase social distancing - and this was achieved.

    The mistake was in putting guidance into laws in the first place, which went on to be extended and extended again. And which Starmer urged on more that Johnson did. Now we have police forces buckling under political and media pressure and wasting valuable time and expense investigating all this nonsense.
    So just to be clear - it isn't as bad as I've suggested because (a) they assume everyone has the same contempt for the law that they've shown and (b) they were so stupid they don't know how to manage laws as against guidelines?

    I don't think that's really helping their case...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:


    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)

    Whatever happens now it is worth reminding ourselves that politics rarely runs in a straight line for any length of time and certainties about future election results are way off the line. The only time you can truly tell when politicians are telling fibs is when they open their mouths.
    TBF, it must be almost impossible for a politician to run their lives perfectly when trying to run a top job. The amount of undeserved ordure they get dumped on them by opponents (and not just those in another party) is amazing.

    Remember the controversy of Boris' bike ride during lockdown? How dare he?

    On the previous thread, someone expressed that Starmer was running the campaign for a really important by-election. Well, Boris was trying to run the country through a pandemic. The stress on everyone involved must have been immense.

    We want politicians to be 'like' us. Yet we also want them to be perfect in all ways. Sadly, I am not perfect. No-one reading this is perfect. If we were put under the same minute critical examination that Johnson, Starmer or any top politician has been, then we would have stories about us.

    Very few people are angels. And they might not have the skills needed to run a country.
    There's a lot to nail Boris for. But, "partygate" is small beer. It ought to be small beer for Starmer, but then, he's made so much of the issue.
    It’s not small beer to those who had to struggle with the regulations, like not visiting dying relatives for example. Those that make the law should follow the law. If it was a bad law, that is the fault of the law maker.
    Well, the same applies to Starmer, doesn't it? Why were people getting pi**ed at a do whilst others could not visit dying relatives? That's not small beer to those who had to struggle with the regulations.

    Starmer voted for the law. Did he say it was a bad law when he voted for it (I assume not, but someone'll have more info.)

    Starmer and Labour have been caught by their own witch hunt. It is pure incompetence on their part not to realise the trap they had laid for themselves.
    Personally I think it’s less serious than a PM disobeying his own law, but as LoO Starmer also has some responsibility here. It doesn’t rally matter in any case politically after Starmer called for the PM to resign.

    If Starmer is fined, the wise move politically might be to resign. If Starmer isn’t fined, some people will owe him an apology. Either way Boris should go. His offence is proven and as PM it is the most serious.
    Starmer is a law maker too. If he'd been opposing the restrictions then it would be less serious but he actually was opposing the relaxation of the restrictions after his own party. Hypocrite.

    Plus he's every bit as guilty or more as Boris is. After calling for him to go. Hypocrite.

    Plus he's outright lied about the events saying he was eating between work, when his own memo says the party was at the end of the day. Liar.

    I've said since last year Boris should go, but Starmer is every bit as bad if not worse for the sheet hypocrisy too.
    Could Starmer have changed the law? No
    Could Boris have changed the law? Yes.

    The leader of the opposition does not carry same responsibility as the prime minister.

    PS Looking at the way Starmer operates, like many ceos personally I suspect he continued working until late through the night. Others may have gone to bed., but he probably carried on in some way.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 5,661
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:


    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)

    Whatever happens now it is worth reminding ourselves that politics rarely runs in a straight line for any length of time and certainties about future election results are way off the line. The only time you can truly tell when politicians are telling fibs is when they open their mouths.
    TBF, it must be almost impossible for a politician to run their lives perfectly when trying to run a top job. The amount of undeserved ordure they get dumped on them by opponents (and not just those in another party) is amazing.

    Remember the controversy of Boris' bike ride during lockdown? How dare he?

    On the previous thread, someone expressed that Starmer was running the campaign for a really important by-election. Well, Boris was trying to run the country through a pandemic. The stress on everyone involved must have been immense.

    We want politicians to be 'like' us. Yet we also want them to be perfect in all ways. Sadly, I am not perfect. No-one reading this is perfect. If we were put under the same minute critical examination that Johnson, Starmer or any top politician has been, then we would have stories about us.

    Very few people are angels. And they might not have the skills needed to run a country.
    There's a lot to nail Boris for. But, "partygate" is small beer. It ought to be small beer for Starmer, but then, he's made so much of the issue.
    I disagree. It shows his contempt for his own laws and for those he expected to follow them. It's also an issue because it feeds in to the perception that he thinks rules are for lesser mortals, not for the Great Leader. Finally, it's an issue because it happened repeatedly, he's lied about it and blamed others to deflect attention from his own culpability.

    In Starmer's case, it will matter because he's been running with it for weeks.
    Quite right. A PM not obeying his own laws is not ok. If the law is wrong, get rid of it, don’t break it.
    If it had been a one-off, due to confusion, and he'd held his hands up and apologised, it would have been OK.

    But it isn't. And it confirms in a very public way that he's a liar and a fool who holds the rest of us in contempt.

    Downing Street thought they were above the laws they made, 'because they were working so hard and under so much stress.' Bollocks. They were under one tenth of the stress of doctors or nurses, and they kept the laws. And many times Downing Street staff were doing things that made matters worse, not better.

    And it's also not just parties. Quarantine was broken. Lockdown was ignored. No wonder Covid spread like wildfire. The whole thing shows an arrogance and a lack of common sense that is also a real political issue. Such people should not be running the country because they're clearly not fit to.
    The curious thing about some of the conversations recently.

    I'd the aim is to say that Downing Street cake equals Durham Curry, then there's a reasonable conversation to be had.

    But does anyone really think that the cake is the only incident in which Johnson is involved?

    This may bring Starmer down (in which case, who is the Harold Wilson to his Hugh Gaitskell?), but how does Johnson then survive what's incoming? Shamelessness only goes so far.

    I suspect that what CCHQ want is to weaken Starmer without destroying him. That may not be an option.
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,787

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:


    Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.

    When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.

    No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.

    (Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)

    Whatever happens now it is worth reminding ourselves that politics rarely runs in a straight line for any length of time and certainties about future election results are way off the line. The only time you can truly tell when politicians are telling fibs is when they open their mouths.
    TBF, it must be almost impossible for a politician to run their lives perfectly when trying to run a top job. The amount of undeserved ordure they get dumped on them by opponents (and not just those in another party) is amazing.

    Remember the controversy of Boris' bike ride during lockdown? How dare he?

    On the previous thread, someone expressed that Starmer was running the campaign for a really important by-election. Well, Boris was trying to run the country through a pandemic. The stress on everyone involved must have been immense.

    We want politicians to be 'like' us. Yet we also want them to be perfect in all ways. Sadly, I am not perfect. No-one reading this is perfect. If we were put under the same minute critical examination that Johnson, Starmer or any top politician has been, then we would have stories about us.

    Very few people are angels. And they might not have the skills needed to run a country.
    There's a lot to nail Boris for. But, "partygate" is small beer. It ought to be small beer for Starmer, but then, he's made so much of the issue.
    It’s not small beer to those who had to struggle with the regulations, like not visiting dying relatives for example. Those that make the law should follow the law. If it was a bad law, that is the fault of the law maker.
    Well, the same applies to Starmer, doesn't it? Why were people getting pi**ed at a do whilst others could not visit dying relatives? That's not small beer to those who had to struggle with the regulations.

    Starmer voted for the law. Did he say it was a bad law when he voted for it (I assume not, but someone'll have more info.)

    Starmer and Labour have been caught by their own witch hunt. It is pure incompetence on their part not to realise the trap they had laid for themselves.
    Personally I think it’s less serious than a PM disobeying his own law, but as LoO Starmer also has some responsibility here. It doesn’t rally matter in any case politically after Starmer called for the PM to resign.

    If Starmer is fined, the wise move politically might be to resign. If Starmer isn’t fined, some people will owe him an apology. Either way Boris should go. His offence is proven and as PM it is the most serious.
    Starmer is a law maker too. If he'd been opposing the restrictions then it would be less serious but he actually was opposing the relaxation of the restrictions after his own party. Hypocrite.

    Plus he's every bit as guilty or more as Boris is. After calling for him to go. Hypocrite.

    Plus he's outright lied about the events saying he was eating between work, when his own memo says the party was at the end of the day. Liar.

    I've said since last year Boris should go, but Starmer is every bit as bad if not worse for the sheer hypocrisy too.
    There is also the lie about Rayner not being there.

    It seems there are several inconsistencies in the story here which doesn’t help.

    I have said I think there is nothing to this and there may well not be but labour have handled this appallingly.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,632

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    So according to their own written records this was planned food and drink at the end of the day, with no work scheduled for afterwards?

    I can't see any difference between this and the BYOB party now to be honest.

    You can’t tell the difference between a meal and a ‘party? Breakfast must be a hoot round your place this morning.
    An hour and a half scheduled for food and drinks at the end of the day, after work has finished.

    How is that not a party, but having food at 1pm and then returning to work is?

    They held an after work party and had no intention of returning to work after their party.
    Done that plenty of times at work after a long slog at work in workshops and meetings. It’s about grabbing some sustenance and talking about the work informally before crawling into bed. Did it last week, when the boss came over from Germany. The last thing it is, is a party.
    That's not what you were saying when the conversation was about Downing Street though was it? 🤔
    Indeed, because the facts are different.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,478
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    At that stage, the leadership contest becomes one between Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson and Wes Streeting. Given the current membership profile, I suspect that it would be one of the latter two who would win.

    Wtf?!

    Once again your certainties have over-ridden your knowledge. You haven't even mentioned the most likely successor: the stand-out performer in parliament. Even the bookies have her as favourite once you discount Andy Burnham (who isn't even an MP).

    There are several other potentials successors should the event arise.

    As a Labour party member I speak with some knowledge of the way in which it operates and what its membership thinks. If you are referring to Yvette Cooper, she is certainly a possibility, though I suspect she would struggle on transfers (and may not even stand).

    No I wasn't. I really like Yvette but she's probably yesterday's leader.

    Rachel Reeves. The Shadow Chancellor. She has been brilliant in parliament.
    Yawn, you don't half talk bollox
This discussion has been closed.