At the start of 2022 I never expected to be writing a thread on a betting market on Sir Keir Starmer getting a penalty notice for breaking Covid-19 regulations, quite frankly Starmer seems a bit vanilla and boring to be breaking any rules but thanks to Smarkets you can bet on this market.
However, putting all that to one side ... if Starmer gets an FPN, Rayner will too, as she was also present. That puts them both out of the picture, assuming they have more integrity and honour than Boris Johnson. At that stage, the leadership contest becomes one between Lisa Nandy, Bridget Phillipson and Wes Streeting. Given the current membership profile, I suspect that it would be one of the latter two who would win.
Even more intriguing, if Starmer and Rayner do go, who becomes acting Labour leader while a contest takes place? I guess it will fall to either Labour MPs or the NEC to make that call. Either way, it is not going to be an MP from the Socialist Campaign Group. In fact, by getting into bed with the Mail and the Murdoch press, the Corbyn left may end up killing itself off entirely within Labour, while providing Labour with a much more voter-friendly leader than Starmer. What larks!
Maybe, just maybe, you're not always right and it would be worth your while pausing to reflect a little more. Just a thought.
Once again your certainties have over-ridden your knowledge. You haven't even mentioned the most likely successor: the stand-out performer in parliament. Even the bookies have her as favourite once you discount Andy Burnham (who isn't even an MP).
There are several other potentials successors should the event arise.
The standout candidate.
I think he would probably win such a contest, and he could do so in the knowledge that Boris would lose if he followed suit.
I am beginning to think the move against Boris will come not from the red wall, but the blue one.
I’d have thought if Starmer did resign, then surely the Tory MPs would have to get rid of Johnson. This story is only of any use to them if Starmer doesn’t resign, and even then I still think they need to oust Johnson to feel any benefit.
Guido thinks Starmer will resign if he is fined. I’m not so sure. People don’t give up these positions very easily.
Rachel Reeves. The Shadow Chancellor. She has been brilliant in parliament.
It would prove nothing at all with the electorate, except that the Party has rubber-stamped the, erm, 'party'.
I like Rachel Reeves a great deal. She has done a lot of thinking and fine writing on what Labour in the 21st century should stand for. However, I think she would struggle in a leadership contest if she decided to stand because she has no strong base in the party and no obvious distinguishing point. I'd like to be wrong, though.
I'm not that clued up on Labour machinations. I only joined when SKS booted out the anti-Semites and I have never attended a meeting, nor do I think I ever would. I also vote LibDem or Green if the situation merits it. So I'm a pretty flakey person.
I just want to see this godawful man removed from No.10 and a more decent, fair, compassionate and honest society rebuilt in this country.
This is rank incompetence by Labour. I've said passim that the Conservative's woes over the last six months were down to events utterly under the government's own control. They were unforced errors.
This is the same for Labour. A little thought might have avoided this, but why think when you have an open goal in front of you? Ignoring the cable leading from the net to a landmine under your feet...
(*) Stupidly, for so many reasons.
Which should make next years interesting, as additional losses from such a low base would be quite damning.
PS Good morning friends!
I agree that General Elections are different.
Another vivid example of Russia’s “pobedobesie” and probably the weirdest thing you’ll watch today.
It's amazing that a computer can be that funny. I'm crying.
And, the political pressure is now off the former too (if they both stay) because the public will simply shrug and say, "they're all the same".
There isn't any bar to incumbent leaders standing in subsequent elections for Labour, as they are technically re-elected annually anyway, but he might struggle to get the nominations if he resigned. In any case, Starmer will have to go if he's fined as his credibility will be shot to pieces and he will be unable to achieve anything going forward.
Johnson's is as well, it's just he doesn't care very much because he's shameless, stupid and is only in power for the lols not to actually do anything useful.
That half baked Brexit Deal leaves a poisoned chalice for the next numpty to take on Tory leadership.
Dr. Foxy, Beria? FFS.
If that's the 'solution' then the problem is either fictitious or vicious.
In addition, SLab’s biggest advocate of “Muscular Unionism”, depute leader Jackie Baillie, has been reverse-ferreting the pre-election promise to not work with the Conservatives when building new council administrations. Entirely predictable, but guaranteed to immensely piss off a big chunk of the SLab activist base and voters.
In fairness, the Labour leader in London is largely irrelevant to SLab’s fortunes, but if London elects another dumpling then a lot of Labour-sympathetic voters are going to wonder why they should bother keeping supporting the broken Union.
I’m finding it very hard to spot a non-dumpling among Labour’s frontbench in Westminster.
The Gulag has returned already:
Exclusive: A @theipaper investigation has uncovered 66 camps in remote parts of Russia where thousands of Ukrainians have been taken as regional officials follow orders from Moscow to disperse them across the country. 1/ https://t.co/EN88L5vnjh
Welsh Labour +14.3%
Scottish Labour +7.6%
English Labour +1.3%
I think it is fair to conclude that Drakeford is Labour’s best leader, and Starmer is a dud.
Up 1.3% against an horrifically poor Tory government, mid-term, is just eye-wateringly pathetic.
"Former President Donald J. Trump asked Mark T. Esper, his defense secretary, about the possibility of launching missiles into Mexico to “destroy the drug labs” and wipe out the cartels, maintaining that the United States’ involvement in a strike against its southern neighbor could be kept secret"
"When Mr. Esper raised various objections, Mr. Trump said that “we could just shoot some Patriot missiles and take out the labs, quietly,” adding that “no one would know it was us.” Mr. Trump said he would just say that the United States had not conducted the strike, Mr. Esper recounts, writing that he would have thought it was a joke had he not been staring Mr. Trump in the face."
It is the fact that Starmer now looks like a rampaging hypocrite with the public.
His selling point is that he is dull ... 'honest and dull', 'straight and dull'.
Take away 'honest' and 'straight', and we are just left with 'dull and dull'.
On that basis it might be good for Labour is Starmer did stand down. And clearly if the police find anything he'll have to.
Why have standing charges gone up so much?
Because that's what's going to make my energy bills go up by 150% from next month.
I could understand higher payments for the fuel itself, but a near doubling of the standing charge? What's going on?
Truly amazing how stupid our politicians are.
When I saw all the partying at No 10 ... I thought, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.
Now I see the party at Durham ... I think, 'How stupid these people are? Did they really think they could get away with it'.
No wonder the UK is such a mess, it really is run by stupid and stupider.
(Is Ed Davey really is to dull to be embroiled in a LibDem Tofu-gate. That must surely be next.)
Hard not to see the Lib Dems and the SNP as the beneficiaries
Labour have done well in Wales (where the number of seats falls from 40 to 32) and OK in Scotland (where the seat chances are poor) .... and pretty badly where the marginals are in England.
Labour have 28/40 seats in Wales at the moment. Just to stand still, they need 28/32 in GE2024.
Not impossible, but they'll need absolutely all the breaks to get to 28/32 of out Welsh seats.
My guess is the redrawn Brecon & Radnor, Montgomery & Glyndwr, Ceredigion Preseli, Carmarthen and Dwyfor Meirionnydd are completely out of reach. Labour have never held those places in living memory. Monmouthshire only falls in a Tony landslide.
So, at best, Labour will probably be at 26/32 at GE2024 -- so still down 2.
Remember the controversy of Boris' bike ride during lockdown? How dare he?
On the previous thread, someone expressed that Starmer was running the campaign for a really important by-election. Well, Boris was trying to run the country through a pandemic. The stress on everyone involved must have been immense.
We want politicians to be 'like' us. Yet we also want them to be perfect in all ways. Sadly, I am not perfect. No-one reading this is perfect. If we were put under the same minute critical examination that Johnson, Starmer or any top politician has been, then we would have stories about us.
Very few people are angels. And they might not have the skills needed to run a country.
I can't see any difference between this and any other parties including the BYOB party, or the Prince Philip funeral eve party (held the same month) now to be honest.
You do have to wonder a bit about the Welsh Tories re-electing RT. Man's more useless than a chocolate furnace.
Ceredigion Labour last held in 1966; Merioneth 1970; Caernarfon 1970; Brecon & Radnor 1970; Carmarthen East & Dinefwr in 1997, Monmouth in 2001.
With the exception of Monmouth in a bad Tory year, I don't think Labour will take the others. Rural and Welsh-speaking Wales has moved decisively away from Labour.
So, my guess is that at best -- assuming Labour take Pembrokeshire and all the Tory marginals in North Wales -- they are still down by 2 in Wales in 2024.
It is because the earlier boundaries were of course very favourable to Labour with plenty of small Valleys seats.
In Starmer's case, it will matter because he's been running with it for weeks.
Starmer voted for the law. Did he say it was a bad law when he voted for it (I assume not, but someone'll have more info.)
Starmer and Labour have been caught by their own witch hunt. It is pure incompetence on their part not to realise the trap they had laid for themselves.
I thought Elystan Morgan (who I like) won his surprise victory in 1966, but it was even more remarkably in the Labour defeat of 1970.
But it isn't. And it confirms in a very public way that he's a liar and a fool who holds the rest of us in contempt.
Downing Street thought they were above the laws they made, 'because they were working so hard and under so much stress.' Bollocks. They were under one tenth of the stress of doctors or nurses, and they kept the laws. And many times Downing Street staff were doing things that made matters worse, not better.
And it's also not just parties. Quarantine was broken. Lockdown was ignored. No wonder Covid spread like wildfire. The whole thing shows an arrogance and a lack of common sense that is also a real political issue. Such people should not be running the country because they're clearly not fit to.
If Starmer is fined, the wise move politically might be to resign. If Starmer isn’t fined, some people will owe him an apology. Either way Boris should go. His offence is proven and as PM it is the most serious.
How is that not a party, but having food at 1pm and then returning to work is?
They held an after work party and had no intention of returning to work after their party.
He looks like he's escaped from Wilson's 1974 administration:
The mistake was in putting guidance into laws in the first place, which went on to be extended and extended again. And which Starmer urged on more that Johnson did. Now we have police forces buckling under political and media pressure and wasting valuable time and expense investigating all this nonsense.
Plus he's every bit as guilty or more as Boris is. After calling for him to go. Hypocrite.
Plus he's outright lied about the events saying he was eating between work, when his own memo says the party was at the end of the day. Liar.
I've said since last year Boris should go, but Starmer is every bit as bad if not worse for the sheer hypocrisy too.
That madfe me LOL! You're on form this morning Eagle!
'But Prime Minister you were discovered quaffing Don Perignon in a party hat while shagging a goat and the Leader of the opposition has just resigned for having a curry after a day's campaigning..."
Did you vote Labour in December 2019?
I don't think that's really helping their case...
Could Boris have changed the law? Yes.
The leader of the opposition does not carry same responsibility as the prime minister.
PS Looking at the way Starmer operates, like many ceos personally I suspect he continued working until late through the night. Others may have gone to bed., but he probably carried on in some way.
I'd the aim is to say that Downing Street cake equals Durham Curry, then there's a reasonable conversation to be had.
But does anyone really think that the cake is the only incident in which Johnson is involved?
This may bring Starmer down (in which case, who is the Harold Wilson to his Hugh Gaitskell?), but how does Johnson then survive what's incoming? Shamelessness only goes so far.
I suspect that what CCHQ want is to weaken Starmer without destroying him. That may not be an option.
It seems there are several inconsistencies in the story here which doesn’t help.
I have said I think there is nothing to this and there may well not be but labour have handled this appallingly.