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Vulnerable and quadruple jabbed yet I still got COVID – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico679 said:

    The SCOTUS decision will inflame US politics at a time when it’s already deeply polarized .

    The choice is clear in November and this will impact many of the close races . Governors and state legislatures will be very much more at the forefront and it’s likely you’ll see a lot of up ballot effect .

    Make no mistake behind the scenes the Dems will know this is a gift from the court which could help them save the senate.

    Yup, that and letting Trump back on Twitter.

    Still, it remains to be seen if the court will actually do this. If they're religious ideologues they will, but if they're political hacks they won't: What a political hack would do would be to leak that they were going to overturn, then do something that doesn't actually technically overturn but lets states almost completely ban abortion in practice. After the leak this will appear moderate and not really do much for Dem turnout.
    That's what I expect to happen. Some of the intended legislation in deep Red States, if Roe is overturned, is pretty grim, and would surely impact upon the Republicans' chances.
    Not in deep Red states as most voters there are anti abortion, though it might drive up Democrat turnout in blue and purple states which are more pro choice
    Not as simple as that.
    https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/compare/views-about-abortion/by/state/

    And of course those figures are before an abortion ban.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nadine LOLz part 94

    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/1521092894987325445

    The picture Nadine Dorries is retweeting is of Keir Starmer sharing a curry with Frank Dobson who died in 2019. Ergo he could not have been eating with Keir Starmer in 2021 no matter what time of day it was. Nadine Dorries is the Cabinet minister responsible for #disinformation

    To be fair to Mad Nad, the Daily Fail chose the picture not her, she just shared the article.

    And to be fair to the Daily Heil, its not unusual for papers to use stock photos in their articles, so they've attached an image of Keir eating curry to an article about Keir eating curry - not claimed that is the image of that event.

    As a corollary any time an article is shared about "empty shelves" due to supply issues/panic buying etc the same few stock photos get rotated and shared on Twitter like that with the news articles. Some idiots then choose to believe that photo is a real photo rather than simply a stock image.
    BR Lolz pt94......
    How's it a Lolz? I despise the Daily Heil and am not a fan of Mad Nadz, as my choice of nomenclature for both of them should have made clear.

    But I'm also not a fan of Twitter lies and disinformation. News articles using stock imagery is nothing new and people misrepresenting it are just being stupid.
    So the cabinet minister responsible for media publicly attacks the leader of the opposition for something the police have already said was not a crime using a fake photo, and it is the people who point this out that are misrepresenting.......
    It could have been an elephant trap by the Mail for Dorries.

    Use an old 2019 picture, caption it "last year", and crop it so that the recognisable but now dead bloke is not on the newspaper version.

    Lesson: Easy mistake to make (remember all those fake pictures of empty shelves retweeted by which were actually from Mar 2020 not 2021) you are responsible for stuff you retweet, and people like ND with armies of minitrolls can't afford to get it even slightly wrong.

    Does the DM have a reason to dislike ND?
    Eh? How would the DM know in advance that ND would retweet their article? Then refuse to take it down or clarify?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,628
    Russia is now picking a fight with Israel.

    https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1521412528810643456

    image
  • moonshine said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I do have a question for US-based PBers. How much of the desire to chain women to the bed comes from some deranged religious conviction and how much because it upsets the liberals?

    What I struggle to comprehend is how people vote for this. Vaginas are dangerous so we read in the UK and at least some Americans have them. Why would you vote to remove your own rights? To risk bleeding to death in agony (as @Cyclefree and Mrs RP have both said this morning). To subjugate your own gender - or at least your wives and daughters?

    I do what I can to empower my daughter and to shape the world so that she can be all that she wants to be. The idea of raising her to be some man's property and saying "if you are raped it's God's will" is just crazy.

    So do they do it because they genuinely believe in the non-rights of women? Or because they have been raised to hate liberals so hard that they will remove their own rights just to do them over?

    I read someone credible, can't remember who, who said that the way to understand this is racism: people who get abortions are disproportionately black. Same with free healthcare, can't have black people being treated on my tax dollar.

    This sounds incredible but compare the war on drugs, a senior member of Nixon's government is on record as saying it was just a proxy for a war on black people
    America is becoming a more and more alien country every year it seems. To be banning women from controlling their own bodies is utterly disgusting if that comes to pass.
    I can’t remember you coming out with the same hyperbole about the UK prior to 2019. Before which time Westminster had been content to devolve the issue to Stormont, with Northern Ireland adopting a distinctly different policy to the rest of the Uk?
    You're categorically wrong, I always thought it was disgusting that it wasn't available in Northern Ireland. And I've always found Northern Ireland to be alien too.

    However women in Northern Ireland were quite easily able to go across the water and get an abortion in a civilised country like England, Scotland or Wales. They shouldn't have to, but they were able to easily. The same basic ease won't be readily available to the unfortunate people in America being denied control over their own country.
    American federalism in this instance means that while Oklahoma can vote to ban abortions, Washington State can vote to keep abortion legal under state law. And OK cannot stop women from traveling to WA. Not cost free, but not impossible. This is safety valve for anti-abortion state, as for Ireland.
    Indeed, not impossible but a lot more expensive I imagine.

    Oklahoma to Washington State is over 1800 miles. A lot of the 22/26 states looking to ban abortion are contiguous meaning the distance some poor (literally and figuratively) women would have to travel to get basic healthcare rights is quite immense, a lot longer than eg the ferry ride from Belfast to Liverpool.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,150
    edited May 2022

    Russia is now picking a fight with Israel.

    https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1521412528810643456

    image

    "Mr Z, do you need any help blowing up a bridge?"

    Unlikely, unfortunately.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nadine LOLz part 94

    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/1521092894987325445

    The picture Nadine Dorries is retweeting is of Keir Starmer sharing a curry with Frank Dobson who died in 2019. Ergo he could not have been eating with Keir Starmer in 2021 no matter what time of day it was. Nadine Dorries is the Cabinet minister responsible for #disinformation

    To be fair to Mad Nad, the Daily Fail chose the picture not her, she just shared the article.

    And to be fair to the Daily Heil, its not unusual for papers to use stock photos in their articles, so they've attached an image of Keir eating curry to an article about Keir eating curry - not claimed that is the image of that event.

    As a corollary any time an article is shared about "empty shelves" due to supply issues/panic buying etc the same few stock photos get rotated and shared on Twitter like that with the news articles. Some idiots then choose to believe that photo is a real photo rather than simply a stock image.
    BR Lolz pt94......
    How's it a Lolz? I despise the Daily Heil and am not a fan of Mad Nadz, as my choice of nomenclature for both of them should have made clear.

    But I'm also not a fan of Twitter lies and disinformation. News articles using stock imagery is nothing new and people misrepresenting it are just being stupid.
    So the cabinet minister responsible for media publicly attacks the leader of the opposition for something the police have already said was not a crime using a fake photo, and it is the people who point this out that are misrepresenting.......
    She didn't use a fake photo, that's been falsely cropped to imply that. She shared an article from a Daily Heil article, and the Daily Heil used a stock photo of Keir eating curry to attach to a story about . . . Keir eating curry. She referenced Keir eating curry in her text too.

    Stock photos are nothing new.
    Hmm. Tories (some) complain about stock photos of empty shelves in Brexit is shite articles. Then Tories don't complain about stock photos of SKS + curry in SKS is shite articles. Cognitive dissonance in there somewhere ....
    Oh yes this is quite comparable to stock photos of empty shelves, I wonder if anyone else had already made that connection or if its all dissonance. Oh wait ...

    As a corollary any time an article is shared about "empty shelves" due to supply issues/panic buying etc the same few stock photos get rotated and shared on Twitter like that with the news articles. Some idiots then choose to believe that photo is a real photo rather than simply a stock image.

    I made that connection myself. No dissonance here thank you. I have never (to the best of my knowledge) complained about stock imagery being used to adorn articles, although if someone were to pretend a stock image wasn't a stock image, that should be pointed out.
    I know: that's exactly why I said "some". I could have excluded you explicitly, but I didn't want to out you as a Tory without permission.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,360

    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I need educating about windfall taxes.

    Radio 4 this AM:

    7:20 Sir Ed interview: We will introduce a windfall tax on oil companies' excessive profits.
    (Also heavyweight denial of any Lib-Lab pact)
    7:30 (first I head) News Headline: BP makes £16bn loss.

    How does this work? Can a Govt say "we are having X billions of this, even though you made an overall loss because of the Ukraine War?"

    If this comes down to a Court scrimmage, I'd punt that the walking away from Russia voluntarily (if it was) would be a problem for BP.

    8:10 Sir Keir adopts the same position on BP. 20 minute interview and that was one of about three questions he answered, including about 4 goes at not answering whether the Durham Constabulary have been in contact again since the food-beer-food work event became news.

    You need educating about the basics of the constitution first. You would impose a tax by primary legislation. In what court would you expect a scrimmage about that?
    I think the issue being raised is what defines profit. There is no problem taxing excess oil company profits - even Thatcher did so and that legislation is still on the statute books. But if there is no profit to tax, its all a bit moot.

    The question then is what is profit? Its relatively simple for big profitable companies to reduce their stated profits. Whilst I am sure that Ukraine is slamming oil as it is my own industry I would be surprised if the losses were so large as to offset profits made everywhere else in this time of elevated oil prices.

    But how would a government or a court prove it...?
    Politically you talk about taxing profits, but I believe the tax on the statute books is a simple revenue tax, which reduces the bookkeeping tricks available for avoidance compared to taxing profits.
    I agree - which is why I support changing the nil rate n the Tory revenue tax and not the imposition of a windfall tax. Its lazy politics by the parties proposing it (my own included).

    So why are they doing so? Because they know there is zero chance of any money being raised by BP et al, so just use that reality as a stick to beat the Tories with.
    If the government increase the Petroleum Revenue Tax they will call it a windfall tax, same as Labour would if they won a snap GE.

    Windfall tax is simple politics to talk about, the details of the implementation are just that, details. You're reading too much into an imagined difference.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Worse than a crime - a blunder.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nadine LOLz part 94

    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/1521092894987325445

    The picture Nadine Dorries is retweeting is of Keir Starmer sharing a curry with Frank Dobson who died in 2019. Ergo he could not have been eating with Keir Starmer in 2021 no matter what time of day it was. Nadine Dorries is the Cabinet minister responsible for #disinformation

    To be fair to Mad Nad, the Daily Fail chose the picture not her, she just shared the article.

    And to be fair to the Daily Heil, its not unusual for papers to use stock photos in their articles, so they've attached an image of Keir eating curry to an article about Keir eating curry - not claimed that is the image of that event.

    As a corollary any time an article is shared about "empty shelves" due to supply issues/panic buying etc the same few stock photos get rotated and shared on Twitter like that with the news articles. Some idiots then choose to believe that photo is a real photo rather than simply a stock image.
    BR Lolz pt94......
    How's it a Lolz? I despise the Daily Heil and am not a fan of Mad Nadz, as my choice of nomenclature for both of them should have made clear.

    But I'm also not a fan of Twitter lies and disinformation. News articles using stock imagery is nothing new and people misrepresenting it are just being stupid.
    So the cabinet minister responsible for media publicly attacks the leader of the opposition for something the police have already said was not a crime using a fake photo, and it is the people who point this out that are misrepresenting.......
    She didn't use a fake photo, that's been falsely cropped to imply that. She shared an article from a Daily Heil article, and the Daily Heil used a stock photo of Keir eating curry to attach to a story about . . . Keir eating curry. She referenced Keir eating curry in her text too.

    Stock photos are nothing new.
    It's a cropped photo from 2015 where SKS is eating a meal with the sadly deceased Frank Dobson to reflect the fact he took over Frank's (safe) seat.
    Which sounds like an inaccurate precis of the Rocky Horrow Picture Show
    Yeah. We await SKS in basque and stockings
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nadine LOLz part 94

    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/1521092894987325445

    The picture Nadine Dorries is retweeting is of Keir Starmer sharing a curry with Frank Dobson who died in 2019. Ergo he could not have been eating with Keir Starmer in 2021 no matter what time of day it was. Nadine Dorries is the Cabinet minister responsible for #disinformation

    To be fair to Mad Nad, the Daily Fail chose the picture not her, she just shared the article.

    And to be fair to the Daily Heil, its not unusual for papers to use stock photos in their articles, so they've attached an image of Keir eating curry to an article about Keir eating curry - not claimed that is the image of that event.

    As a corollary any time an article is shared about "empty shelves" due to supply issues/panic buying etc the same few stock photos get rotated and shared on Twitter like that with the news articles. Some idiots then choose to believe that photo is a real photo rather than simply a stock image.
    BR Lolz pt94......
    How's it a Lolz? I despise the Daily Heil and am not a fan of Mad Nadz, as my choice of nomenclature for both of them should have made clear.

    But I'm also not a fan of Twitter lies and disinformation. News articles using stock imagery is nothing new and people misrepresenting it are just being stupid.
    So the cabinet minister responsible for media publicly attacks the leader of the opposition for something the police have already said was not a crime using a fake photo, and it is the people who point this out that are misrepresenting.......
    She didn't use a fake photo, that's been falsely cropped to imply that. She shared an article from a Daily Heil article, and the Daily Heil used a stock photo of Keir eating curry to attach to a story about . . . Keir eating curry. She referenced Keir eating curry in her text too.

    Stock photos are nothing new.
    It's a cropped photo from 2015 where SKS is eating a meal with the sadly deceased Frank Dobson to reflect the fact he took over Frank's (safe) seat.
    Which sounds like an inaccurate precis of the Rocky Horrow Picture Show
    You mean politics is stuck in a Time Warp?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Keir ate curry is a stupid story befitting the Heil in its stupidity, but the Heil used a stock photo of Keir eating curry to attach to their stupid Keir ate a curry story is even stupider.

    What kind of idiocy is this? Have we nothing smarter to discuss, are we all to be reduced to the most petulant and pathetic discussions imaginable? Ridiculous on all sides it seems.

    Because the fons et origo of the idiocy, petulance and dishonesty is a Cabinet minister (with responsibility, incidentally, for the meejah).. Or is it your case that attaching cropped stock photos to tweets is SOP, nothing to see here, move along?
    Yes attaching stock photos to newspaper articles is 100% absolutely SOP.

    Tweets sharing the images in the articles, which are typically stock images, is also SOP.

    If newspaper articles couldn't use stock photos, and if stock photos couldn't be shared on Twitter, there'd be a lot less imagery adorning said articles going forwards.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,150
    edited May 2022

    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nadine LOLz part 94

    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/1521092894987325445

    The picture Nadine Dorries is retweeting is of Keir Starmer sharing a curry with Frank Dobson who died in 2019. Ergo he could not have been eating with Keir Starmer in 2021 no matter what time of day it was. Nadine Dorries is the Cabinet minister responsible for #disinformation

    To be fair to Mad Nad, the Daily Fail chose the picture not her, she just shared the article.

    And to be fair to the Daily Heil, its not unusual for papers to use stock photos in their articles, so they've attached an image of Keir eating curry to an article about Keir eating curry - not claimed that is the image of that event.

    As a corollary any time an article is shared about "empty shelves" due to supply issues/panic buying etc the same few stock photos get rotated and shared on Twitter like that with the news articles. Some idiots then choose to believe that photo is a real photo rather than simply a stock image.
    BR Lolz pt94......
    How's it a Lolz? I despise the Daily Heil and am not a fan of Mad Nadz, as my choice of nomenclature for both of them should have made clear.

    But I'm also not a fan of Twitter lies and disinformation. News articles using stock imagery is nothing new and people misrepresenting it are just being stupid.
    So the cabinet minister responsible for media publicly attacks the leader of the opposition for something the police have already said was not a crime using a fake photo, and it is the people who point this out that are misrepresenting.......
    It could have been an elephant trap by the Mail for Dorries.

    Use an old 2019 picture, caption it "last year", and crop it so that the recognisable but now dead bloke is not on the newspaper version.

    Lesson: Easy mistake to make (remember all those fake pictures of empty shelves retweeted by which were actually from Mar 2020 not 2021) you are responsible for stuff you retweet, and people like ND with armies of minitrolls can't afford to get it even slightly wrong.

    Does the DM have a reason to dislike ND?
    Eh? How would the DM know in advance that ND would retweet their article? Then refuse to take it down or clarify?
    Perhaps they read her twitter feed!

    Just conspiralooing :smiley:

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Excellent that you're on the mend, Mike - hope your wife is better soon too.

    Not sure if we've covered this - can't see it on the thread?

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_localelectionpoll_20220503.html

    Terrible for expectations management for Labour (Westminster!), but the methodology does look convincing. Roll on Thursday!

    Incidentally, I'm astonished by the predicted halving of Green representation. I think this may underestimate the power of incumbency for small parties - when you actually hold the seat, it's hard for anyone to say it's a wasted vote.

    I realise that doubting the sainted Baxter is considered close to heresy round here, but Electoral Calculus never passes the smell test for me - whenever I look at its projections for anywhere I know at all, they are significantly, sometimes wildly out. It's difficult to put a finger on why, but I suspect it underestimates both incumbency and tactical voting behaviour.

    For Westminster elections I greatly preferred Flavible, but that hasn't been updated since last autumn and seems to be on the back burner at present: https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1462225206240587788
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    *** BETTING POST ***

    You can get 2/1 on the LibDems winning control of Woking Council. 10 of the 30 seats are up for grabs and, knowing the area as I do, I think this is a value bet. They have made steady gains in recent times and they are already the largest party. It's clear that the party machine is up and running hard for this.

    I've only seen LibDem posters up and there is a lot of anger directed towards the Conservatives. In addition the tory run minority council has squandered huge amounts of money and the council is now the third most most debt-ridden in the country.

    I think at 2/1 this is value. I'm on.

    https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/partygate-made-conservatives-grumpy-what-23812465

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    https://wokinglibdems.org.uk/en/article/2021/1421356/shock-by-election-win-paves-way-for-lib-dem-gain-in-woking

    https://www.libdems.org.uk/willforster/polling_day_in_woking

    Woking is only 26th on the LD target list for the next general election, no surprise they are targeting it
    Although it might be a target in the GE, it is not being especially done so in these local elections. There are no calls for help even from boroughs without election (eg where I am and I am only 5 miles from Woking). It is and has been for many years a very tight and actively fought borough by both the Tories an LDs and with a Tory run borough who are in a minority and with financial issues it is prime territory for LD gains to take overall control. Just a tough set of circumstances for the Tories here really.
    I expect the heaviest Tory losses on Thursday to be in anti Brexit areas which most dislike Boris.

    Woking was 56% Remain, similar councils in Remain areas of the Home Counties like Guildford and South Oxfordshire have already gone LD so I would not be surprised to see the LDs take it.

    The Tories are also likely to lose Tunbridge Wells on Thursday too partly for the same reasons as well as local factors
    I agree generally, but sometimes local factors are a bigger aspect as you point out re Tunbridge Wells. That is certainly the case with Guildford. Guildford is not LD controlled. It is in coalition with Indies and the Indies made the bigger wins (some wards by huge margins eg mine). This was because of Tory scandals and the local plan. You only have to speak to Mole Valley Tories to find out about what happened to the Guildford Tories. No love lost at the time.

    Re Tunbridge Wells - I have no knowledge although I used to live in Crowborough but lost contact now. A lovely area in which I believe you used to live also.
    Remind me, what went down in Guildford? In Woking, the attitude of the council has been "it's either tower blocks or building houses on green spaces and golf courses."

    But I don't see any tower blocks in Guildford, so I guess they went for new housing estates like this one:

    https://www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/new-homes/guildford/montague-place
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,628
    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    It's a cropped photo from 2015 where SKS is eating a meal with the sadly deceased Frank Dobson to reflect the fact he took over Frank's (safe) seat.

    Which sounds like an inaccurate precis of the Rocky Horrow Picture Show
    You mean politics is stuck in a Time Warp?
    It's just a jump to the left and then a step to the right.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Also Primary Day in the great Hoosier State of Indiana

    In-person P-Day voting begins in a few hours, running from 6am - 6pm local time, which is EDT in most of the state EXCEPT for Northwest (Gary, Michigan City) and Southwest (Evanville) Indiana which are CDT.

    So first Indiana results will be coming in sometime after 11pm UK time tonight.

    According to the Gray Lady (NYT $)

    "Indiana’s primary also features some notable elections with implications for the direction of the Republican Party. This year, more incumbents at the state level are facing primary challengers from the right than in at least a decade, according to a review by The Indianapolis Star, potentially resulting in an even more conservative legislative supermajority.

    North of Indianapolis, in Hamilton County, the re-election campaign of the prosecutor D. Lee Buckingham against Greg Garrison, a conservative talk-show host, is garnering outsize attention: Mr. Buckingham has the support of former Vice President Mike Pence."

    Remains to be seen what impact today's news re: Roe v Wade may have on today's AND subsequent primaries as well as 2022 general election.

    Today too early to tell, obviously, but possible that as year progresses SCOTUS reversal of RvW could reduce current advantage in enthusiasm gap enjoyed by Republicans at present, by galvanizing, mobilizing and turning out Democrats & pro-choice swing voters, esp. in key, mostly-suburban counties and districts critical in key 2022 gubernatorial, senatorial, congressional, legislative and local races across America.

    I know this isnt the main takeaway, but what's a Hoosier?

    Good question.

    Short answer: a native or assimilated resident of State of Indiana.

    What? See wiki blurb below, but fact is, Indiana has one of the strongest state identities in the USA, based in part (like WVa) of tendency of bigger, richer neighbors looking down their noses at them.

    Note that in much of upland South, a "hoosier" is a uncooth rural yokel (even by uncooth rural yokel standards).

    Further note that in the early 1800s, residents of Illinois were called "Suckers" a nickname they shed (on purpose) long ago.

    Personally think that "Sucker" and "Hoosier" have pretty much the same meaning. With the former coming to mean in American argot NOT people from what we call the Land of Lincoln, but just the general run of, well, suckers.

    While on the other hand, Hoosiers came to refer, not to a universal class, but just to folks from Indiana.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoosier

    Addendum - there was a lot of French Canadian influence in the Midwest, on the Great Lakes AND the Ohio River and it's tributaries such as the Wabash, the Ganges (sort of) of Indiana. Hence "hoosier" which is French (ditto).
    Canadians have the quite similar word Hoser, which was used a lot on How I Met Your Mother, that's the only reference to it I knew.
    Hoosier has a movie of the name about a basketball team which helped cement the identity. I saw it on a plane in the days when there was no choice.
    Hoser was made famous by Bob and Doug on SNL. It means loser. From the convention that losing hockey teams at very low levels were responsible for hosing down the ice to be zambonied for the next game.
    Re: Hoosiers, you're putting the cart before the horse, the identity was well-cemented before the movie, which was a BIG hit in Indiana as was emblematic of local folks myths, centered around THE state sport of baskeball.

    As for hosers, think what you're giving is back-handed etymology, like "who's there?" for "hoosier".

    That is, an explanation after the fact, that has little or zero relationship to how the word came to be, but makes "sense" in modern language and context. But will defer to actual hockey players!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited May 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    NATO has always been defensive.

    What was NATO doing running ISAF in Afghanistan from 2005 to 2021? There wasn't much chance of the Taliban crossing the Rhine.
    A good question, with a complicated answer.
    https://www.lawfareblog.com/five-myths-about-nato-and-afghanistan
    What a crappy article with many false premises and strawmen. Not addressing the point that NATO was there as an aggressor because no NATO state was at risk.

    Also, having listened to Richard Shireff, ex Dep Comd SACEUR say how the UK should step up against Russia, that UK defense forces should be hosed with more money, and that "UK society should prepare itself" or words to that effect the credibility which anyone should give to: "four dozen former senior U.S. and NATO military and political officials, including SACEURs, undersecretaries of defense, deputy assistant secretaries, members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, CENTCOM, the NATO Military Committee and national chiefs of defense" is tiny.

    Of course they are going to tell it how they want you to think it went.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico679 said:

    The SCOTUS decision will inflame US politics at a time when it’s already deeply polarized .

    The choice is clear in November and this will impact many of the close races . Governors and state legislatures will be very much more at the forefront and it’s likely you’ll see a lot of up ballot effect .

    Make no mistake behind the scenes the Dems will know this is a gift from the court which could help them save the senate.

    Yup, that and letting Trump back on Twitter.

    Still, it remains to be seen if the court will actually do this. If they're religious ideologues they will, but if they're political hacks they won't: What a political hack would do would be to leak that they were going to overturn, then do something that doesn't actually technically overturn but lets states almost completely ban abortion in practice. After the leak this will appear moderate and not really do much for Dem turnout.
    That's what I expect to happen. Some of the intended legislation in deep Red States, if Roe is overturned, is pretty grim, and would surely impact upon the Republicans' chances.
    Not in deep Red states as most voters there are anti abortion, though it might drive up Democrat turnout in blue and purple states which are more pro choice
    But they were voting Republican anyway. It will motivate Democrats and Independents and maybe some Republicans who think 'For the grace of God that could be me'.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Glad you're over the Covid, Mike.

    The vaccines have disappointed? - No, I don't think so. I got it despite being vaxxed and had an unpleasant couple of weeks. It was quite nasty. But it was never scary. Eg I was never worried about hospital. This is the most important thing about vaccination and it works.
  • TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    NATO has always been defensive.

    What was NATO doing running ISAF in Afghanistan from 2005 to 2021? There wasn't much chance of the Taliban crossing the Rhine.
    A good question, with a complicated answer.
    https://www.lawfareblog.com/five-myths-about-nato-and-afghanistan
    What a crappy article with many false premises and strawmen. Not addressing the point that NATO was there as an aggressor because no NATO state was at risk.

    Also, having listened to Richard Shireff, ex Dep Comd SACEUR say how the UK should step up against Russia, that UK defense forces should be hosed with more money, and that "UK society should prepare itself" or words to that effect the credibility which anyone should give to: "four dozen former senior U.S. and NATO military and political officials, including SACEURs, undersecretaries of defense, deputy assistant secretaries, members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, CENTCOM, the NATO Military Committee and national chiefs of defense" is tiny.

    Of course they are going to tell it how they want you to think it went.
    NATO was not an aggressor, if it arrived in Afghanistan in 2005 then it was invited in by the Afghani government.

    Being invited in by the government of a state does not make you an aggressor.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    I don’t know why Labour continues with this line that it doesn’t matter and there is nothing to see here. If there was truly nothing, you think they would have a better argument. It’s clear from yours - who is not a Tory-at-any-cost voter - plus arguably the Best PM polling that the voters are sceptical of Labour’s stance. Blaming it on the machinations of the Daily Mail is a lazy argument.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    tlg86 said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    *** BETTING POST ***

    You can get 2/1 on the LibDems winning control of Woking Council. 10 of the 30 seats are up for grabs and, knowing the area as I do, I think this is a value bet. They have made steady gains in recent times and they are already the largest party. It's clear that the party machine is up and running hard for this.

    I've only seen LibDem posters up and there is a lot of anger directed towards the Conservatives. In addition the tory run minority council has squandered huge amounts of money and the council is now the third most most debt-ridden in the country.

    I think at 2/1 this is value. I'm on.

    https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/partygate-made-conservatives-grumpy-what-23812465

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    https://wokinglibdems.org.uk/en/article/2021/1421356/shock-by-election-win-paves-way-for-lib-dem-gain-in-woking

    https://www.libdems.org.uk/willforster/polling_day_in_woking

    Woking is only 26th on the LD target list for the next general election, no surprise they are targeting it
    Although it might be a target in the GE, it is not being especially done so in these local elections. There are no calls for help even from boroughs without election (eg where I am and I am only 5 miles from Woking). It is and has been for many years a very tight and actively fought borough by both the Tories an LDs and with a Tory run borough who are in a minority and with financial issues it is prime territory for LD gains to take overall control. Just a tough set of circumstances for the Tories here really.
    I expect the heaviest Tory losses on Thursday to be in anti Brexit areas which most dislike Boris.

    Woking was 56% Remain, similar councils in Remain areas of the Home Counties like Guildford and South Oxfordshire have already gone LD so I would not be surprised to see the LDs take it.

    The Tories are also likely to lose Tunbridge Wells on Thursday too partly for the same reasons as well as local factors
    I agree generally, but sometimes local factors are a bigger aspect as you point out re Tunbridge Wells. That is certainly the case with Guildford. Guildford is not LD controlled. It is in coalition with Indies and the Indies made the bigger wins (some wards by huge margins eg mine). This was because of Tory scandals and the local plan. You only have to speak to Mole Valley Tories to find out about what happened to the Guildford Tories. No love lost at the time.

    Re Tunbridge Wells - I have no knowledge although I used to live in Crowborough but lost contact now. A lovely area in which I believe you used to live also.
    Remind me, what went down in Guildford? In Woking, the attitude of the council has been "it's either tower blocks or building houses on green spaces and golf courses."

    But I don't see any tower blocks in Guildford, so I guess they went for new housing estates like this one:

    https://www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/new-homes/guildford/montague-place
    Wow. That development is is Worpleston, which is about an hour’s walk from Guildford centre, and sold at a value £485,000 for a 2-bed mid-terrace!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,150
    edited May 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nadine LOLz part 94

    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/1521092894987325445

    The picture Nadine Dorries is retweeting is of Keir Starmer sharing a curry with Frank Dobson who died in 2019. Ergo he could not have been eating with Keir Starmer in 2021 no matter what time of day it was. Nadine Dorries is the Cabinet minister responsible for #disinformation

    To be fair to Mad Nad, the Daily Fail chose the picture not her, she just shared the article.

    And to be fair to the Daily Heil, its not unusual for papers to use stock photos in their articles, so they've attached an image of Keir eating curry to an article about Keir eating curry - not claimed that is the image of that event.

    As a corollary any time an article is shared about "empty shelves" due to supply issues/panic buying etc the same few stock photos get rotated and shared on Twitter like that with the news articles. Some idiots then choose to believe that photo is a real photo rather than simply a stock image.
    BR Lolz pt94......
    How's it a Lolz? I despise the Daily Heil and am not a fan of Mad Nadz, as my choice of nomenclature for both of them should have made clear.

    But I'm also not a fan of Twitter lies and disinformation. News articles using stock imagery is nothing new and people misrepresenting it are just being stupid.
    So the cabinet minister responsible for media publicly attacks the leader of the opposition for something the police have already said was not a crime using a fake photo, and it is the people who point this out that are misrepresenting.......
    She didn't use a fake photo, that's been falsely cropped to imply that. She shared an article from a Daily Heil article, and the Daily Heil used a stock photo of Keir eating curry to attach to a story about . . . Keir eating curry. She referenced Keir eating curry in her text too.

    Stock photos are nothing new.
    Hmm. Tories (some) complain about stock photos of empty shelves in Brexit is shite articles. Then Tories don't complain about stock photos of SKS + curry in SKS is shite articles. Cognitive dissonance in there somewhere ....
    Oh yes this is quite comparable to stock photos of empty shelves, I wonder if anyone else had already made that connection or if its all dissonance. Oh wait ...

    As a corollary any time an article is shared about "empty shelves" due to supply issues/panic buying etc the same few stock photos get rotated and shared on Twitter like that with the news articles. Some idiots then choose to believe that photo is a real photo rather than simply a stock image.

    I made that connection myself. No dissonance here thank you. I have never (to the best of my knowledge) complained about stock imagery being used to adorn articles, although if someone were to pretend a stock image wasn't a stock image, that should be pointed out.
    I know: that's exactly why I said "some". I could have excluded you explicitly, but I didn't want to out you as a Tory without permission.
    Since I think I made the reference to photos of empty shelves - it was actually about people on Twitter retweeting things without checking the content for being genuine.

    And the photos of empty shelves is an excellent comparator as they have been everywhere. Though TBF the photo reverse search tools etc have come a long way in a very short time.

    It's quite a tricky mistake never to make if you do a lot of retweeting.

    On the stock photos in articles, imo the DM should have identified the source of the pic clearly in the piece as a basic editorial practice.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    He cannot agree to an interview with Durham Police because Durham Police have said there is nothing to investigate. Lets assume it does happen because a minister tells them so:
    PLOD: We have reviewed again this video of you at this event. Can you confirm its purpose?
    KIER: It was a campaign event.
    PLOD: Thanks
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    It'll be a relief for you when the locals are over and you can stop going on about it.
    I doubt those pursuing the story including the media will just go away because it is inconvenient for labour
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Wow. Sounds like PM's GMB interview was an absolute car crash.


    Adam Bienkov
    @AdamBienkov
    ·
    1h
    Replying to
    @AdamBienkov
    Susanna Reid told Boris Johnson that 77-year-old Elsie stays on the buses all day in order to stay warm and use less energy. Johnson responds by congratulating himself for making freedom passes 24 hours. Quite extraordinary.

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1521396481265221632
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Mad Nad tweeting a picture of him eating curry during lockdown is surely proof.

    Also great news that the late Frank Dobson was also present despite being cremated in 2019.

    Would have thought SKS sharing a table with an actual Socialist was also a give away that it was before lockdown and of course before he lied his way to being leader..
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Doesn't mean that Mr Holden is right, still less the DM. Timing, remember.We've had this beer bottle story for many months, so why are they coming out of the woodwork now? As DA says it's all about the election and how much shite can be flung before then.

    It's shameful to see you defending the DM and the Tories' approach to fair and measured political debate of the issues of the day.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    moonshine said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I do have a question for US-based PBers. How much of the desire to chain women to the bed comes from some deranged religious conviction and how much because it upsets the liberals?

    What I struggle to comprehend is how people vote for this. Vaginas are dangerous so we read in the UK and at least some Americans have them. Why would you vote to remove your own rights? To risk bleeding to death in agony (as @Cyclefree and Mrs RP have both said this morning). To subjugate your own gender - or at least your wives and daughters?

    I do what I can to empower my daughter and to shape the world so that she can be all that she wants to be. The idea of raising her to be some man's property and saying "if you are raped it's God's will" is just crazy.

    So do they do it because they genuinely believe in the non-rights of women? Or because they have been raised to hate liberals so hard that they will remove their own rights just to do them over?

    I read someone credible, can't remember who, who said that the way to understand this is racism: people who get abortions are disproportionately black. Same with free healthcare, can't have black people being treated on my tax dollar.

    This sounds incredible but compare the war on drugs, a senior member of Nixon's government is on record as saying it was just a proxy for a war on black people
    America is becoming a more and more alien country every year it seems. To be banning women from controlling their own bodies is utterly disgusting if that comes to pass.
    I can’t remember you coming out with the same hyperbole about the UK prior to 2019. Before which time Westminster had been content to devolve the issue to Stormont, with Northern Ireland adopting a distinctly different policy to the rest of the Uk?
    You're categorically wrong, I always thought it was disgusting that it wasn't available in Northern Ireland. And I've always found Northern Ireland to be alien too.

    However women in Northern Ireland were quite easily able to go across the water and get an abortion in a civilised country like England, Scotland or Wales. They shouldn't have to, but they were able to easily. The same basic ease won't be readily available to the unfortunate people in America being denied control over their own country.
    American federalism in this instance means that while Oklahoma can vote to ban abortions, Washington State can vote to keep abortion legal under state law. And OK cannot stop women from traveling to WA. Not cost free, but not impossible. This is safety valve for anti-abortion state, as for Ireland.
    Indeed, not impossible but a lot more expensive I imagine.

    Oklahoma to Washington State is over 1800 miles. A lot of the 22/26 states looking to ban abortion are contiguous meaning the distance some poor (literally and figuratively) women would have to travel to get basic healthcare rights is quite immense, a lot longer than eg the ferry ride from Belfast to Liverpool.
    Didn't say it was a walk to the park, just possible. Also keep in mind, in America we think nothing of driving or riding in a car or bus all day, not if we're going somewhere we want to get.

    My counter was to your implying it can't be done. It can be, and is. That does NOT justify making it harder for poor women to obtain their right to health care AND to choose.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    NATO has always been defensive.

    What was NATO doing running ISAF in Afghanistan from 2005 to 2021? There wasn't much chance of the Taliban crossing the Rhine.
    A good question, with a complicated answer.
    https://www.lawfareblog.com/five-myths-about-nato-and-afghanistan
    What a crappy article with many false premises and strawmen. Not addressing the point that NATO was there as an aggressor because no NATO state was at risk.

    Also, having listened to Richard Shireff, ex Dep Comd SACEUR say how the UK should step up against Russia, that UK defense forces should be hosed with more money, and that "UK society should prepare itself" or words to that effect the credibility which anyone should give to: "four dozen former senior U.S. and NATO military and political officials, including SACEURs, undersecretaries of defense, deputy assistant secretaries, members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, CENTCOM, the NATO Military Committee and national chiefs of defense" is tiny.

    Of course they are going to tell it how they want you to think it went.
    NATO was not an aggressor, if it arrived in Afghanistan in 2005 then it was invited in by the Afghani government.

    Being invited in by the government of a state does not make you an aggressor.
    It means that NATO took sides with the Afghan govt and hence conducted an aggressive war against the Taleban. Which of course it lost but that's another discussion.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Russia is now picking a fight with Israel.

    https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1521412528810643456

    image

    One more country in the Middle East that’s no longer going to be neutral in this conflict.

    (Waits for Lavrov to re-ignite the tensions with the OPEC Gulf States over oil production).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,150
    After all that - glad you have improved, Mike.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    *** BETTING POST ***

    You can get 2/1 on the LibDems winning control of Woking Council. 10 of the 30 seats are up for grabs and, knowing the area as I do, I think this is a value bet. They have made steady gains in recent times and they are already the largest party. It's clear that the party machine is up and running hard for this.

    I've only seen LibDem posters up and there is a lot of anger directed towards the Conservatives. In addition the tory run minority council has squandered huge amounts of money and the council is now the third most most debt-ridden in the country.

    I think at 2/1 this is value. I'm on.

    https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/partygate-made-conservatives-grumpy-what-23812465

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    https://wokinglibdems.org.uk/en/article/2021/1421356/shock-by-election-win-paves-way-for-lib-dem-gain-in-woking

    https://www.libdems.org.uk/willforster/polling_day_in_woking

    Woking is only 26th on the LD target list for the next general election, no surprise they are targeting it
    Although it might be a target in the GE, it is not being especially done so in these local elections. There are no calls for help even from boroughs without election (eg where I am and I am only 5 miles from Woking). It is and has been for many years a very tight and actively fought borough by both the Tories an LDs and with a Tory run borough who are in a minority and with financial issues it is prime territory for LD gains to take overall control. Just a tough set of circumstances for the Tories here really.
    I expect the heaviest Tory losses on Thursday to be in anti Brexit areas which most dislike Boris.

    Woking was 56% Remain, similar councils in Remain areas of the Home Counties like Guildford and South Oxfordshire have already gone LD so I would not be surprised to see the LDs take it.

    The Tories are also likely to lose Tunbridge Wells on Thursday too partly for the same reasons as well as local factors
    I agree generally, but sometimes local factors are a bigger aspect as you point out re Tunbridge Wells. That is certainly the case with Guildford. Guildford is not LD controlled. It is in coalition with Indies and the Indies made the bigger wins (some wards by huge margins eg mine). This was because of Tory scandals and the local plan. You only have to speak to Mole Valley Tories to find out about what happened to the Guildford Tories. No love lost at the time.

    Re Tunbridge Wells - I have no knowledge although I used to live in Crowborough but lost contact now. A lovely area in which I believe you used to live also.
    Remind me, what went down in Guildford? In Woking, the attitude of the council has been "it's either tower blocks or building houses on green spaces and golf courses."

    But I don't see any tower blocks in Guildford, so I guess they went for new housing estates like this one:

    https://www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/new-homes/guildford/montague-place
    Wow. That development is is Worpleston, which is about an hour’s walk from Guildford centre, and sold at a value £485,000 for a 2-bed mid-terrace!
    Yes, I'm not rushing down there to put in an offer.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    NATO has always been defensive.

    What was NATO doing running ISAF in Afghanistan from 2005 to 2021? There wasn't much chance of the Taliban crossing the Rhine.
    A good question, with a complicated answer.
    https://www.lawfareblog.com/five-myths-about-nato-and-afghanistan
    What a crappy article with many false premises and strawmen. Not addressing the point that NATO was there as an aggressor because no NATO state was at risk.

    Also, having listened to Richard Shireff, ex Dep Comd SACEUR say how the UK should step up against Russia, that UK defense forces should be hosed with more money, and that "UK society should prepare itself" or words to that effect the credibility which anyone should give to: "four dozen former senior U.S. and NATO military and political officials, including SACEURs, undersecretaries of defense, deputy assistant secretaries, members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, CENTCOM, the NATO Military Committee and national chiefs of defense" is tiny.

    Of course they are going to tell it how they want you to think it went.
    NATO was not an aggressor, if it arrived in Afghanistan in 2005 then it was invited in by the Afghani government.

    Being invited in by the government of a state does not make you an aggressor.
    It means that NATO took sides with the Afghan govt and hence conducted an aggressive war against the Taleban. Which of course it lost but that's another discussion.
    In 2005 it was a defensive war against the Taleban, not an aggressive war.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Doesn't mean that Mr Holden is right, still less the DM. Timing, remember.We've had this beer bottle story for many months, so why are they coming out of the woodwork now? As DA says it's all about the election and how much shite can be flung before then.

    It's shameful to see you defending the DM and the Tories' approach to fair and measured political debate of the issues of the day.

    The PM being delivered a birthday cake, was reported in the Times the day after it happened. Didn’t stop it suddenly becoming a story 18 months later.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    It'll be a relief for you when the locals are over and you can stop going on about it.
    I doubt those pursuing the story including the media will just go away because it is inconvenient for labour
    YOu mean, convenient for Mr Johnson. Not quite the same thing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited May 2022
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico679 said:

    The SCOTUS decision will inflame US politics at a time when it’s already deeply polarized .

    The choice is clear in November and this will impact many of the close races . Governors and state legislatures will be very much more at the forefront and it’s likely you’ll see a lot of up ballot effect .

    Make no mistake behind the scenes the Dems will know this is a gift from the court which could help them save the senate.

    Yup, that and letting Trump back on Twitter.

    Still, it remains to be seen if the court will actually do this. If they're religious ideologues they will, but if they're political hacks they won't: What a political hack would do would be to leak that they were going to overturn, then do something that doesn't actually technically overturn but lets states almost completely ban abortion in practice. After the leak this will appear moderate and not really do much for Dem turnout.
    That's what I expect to happen. Some of the intended legislation in deep Red States, if Roe is overturned, is pretty grim, and would surely impact upon the Republicans' chances.
    Not in deep Red states as most voters there are anti abortion, though it might drive up Democrat turnout in blue and purple states which are more pro choice
    Not as simple as that.
    https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/compare/views-about-abortion/by/state/

    And of course those figures are before an abortion ban.
    So even on those figures majorities of voters in Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Dakota, Utah and Tennessee for example want to ban abortion which US Federal law currently prevents the Republican governor and Republican state they have elected from doing due to a previous SC ruling
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Wait until Johnson finds out he can't privatise ITV as punishment for his disaster of an interview.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,150

    IshmaelZ said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I need educating about windfall taxes.

    Radio 4 this AM:

    7:20 Sir Ed interview: We will introduce a windfall tax on oil companies' excessive profits.
    (Also heavyweight denial of any Lib-Lab pact)
    7:30 (first I head) News Headline: BP makes £16bn loss.

    How does this work? Can a Govt say "we are having X billions of this, even though you made an overall loss because of the Ukraine War?"

    If this comes down to a Court scrimmage, I'd punt that the walking away from Russia voluntarily (if it was) would be a problem for BP.

    8:10 Sir Keir adopts the same position on BP. 20 minute interview and that was one of about three questions he answered, including about 4 goes at not answering whether the Durham Constabulary have been in contact again since the food-beer-food work event became news.

    You need educating about the basics of the constitution first. You would impose a tax by primary legislation. In what court would you expect a scrimmage about that?
    I think the issue being raised is what defines profit. There is no problem taxing excess oil company profits - even Thatcher did so and that legislation is still on the statute books. But if there is no profit to tax, its all a bit moot.

    The question then is what is profit? Its relatively simple for big profitable companies to reduce their stated profits. Whilst I am sure that Ukraine is slamming oil as it is my own industry I would be surprised if the losses were so large as to offset profits made everywhere else in this time of elevated oil prices.

    But how would a government or a court prove it...?
    Politically you talk about taxing profits, but I believe the tax on the statute books is a simple revenue tax, which reduces the bookkeeping tricks available for avoidance compared to taxing profits.
    I agree - which is why I support changing the nil rate n the Tory revenue tax and not the imposition of a windfall tax. Its lazy politics by the parties proposing it (my own included).

    So why are they doing so? Because they know there is zero chance of any money being raised by BP et al, so just use that reality as a stick to beat the Tories with.
    If the government increase the Petroleum Revenue Tax they will call it a windfall tax, same as Labour would if they won a snap GE.

    Windfall tax is simple politics to talk about, the details of the implementation are just that, details. You're reading too much into an imagined difference.
    Thank-you.

    All helpful.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836
    Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Doesn't mean that Mr Holden is right, still less the DM. Timing, remember.We've had this beer bottle story for many months, so why are they coming out of the woodwork now? As DA says it's all about the election and how much shite can be flung before then.

    It's shameful to see you defending the DM and the Tories' approach to fair and measured political debate of the issues of the day.

    The PM being delivered a birthday cake, was reported in the Times the day after it happened. Didn’t stop it suddenly becoming a story 18 months later.
    Man is delivered cake on his birthday = not news.
    Man does it while breaking his own covid rules and this only becomes clear later = news later.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Sure! But Richard Holden has provided no new evidence. The two students have provided no new evidence. Cases do get reopened and re-examined but there has to be a reason to do so.

    I don't know how else to explain this to you. Policing is evidence-based. The police have investigated the complain and investigated the evidence. Making the same complaint about the same evidence doesn't create a new line of enquiry. #

    What could be done is that people could put in a complaint about the police that they have not properly carried out their duties. Which would be at least initially an internal investigation. As far as I know that hasn't been requested. Why not if the pursuit of justice is the motive and the complainants believe an actual crime has been committed?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Also Primary Day in the great Hoosier State of Indiana

    In-person P-Day voting begins in a few hours, running from 6am - 6pm local time, which is EDT in most of the state EXCEPT for Northwest (Gary, Michigan City) and Southwest (Evanville) Indiana which are CDT.

    So first Indiana results will be coming in sometime after 11pm UK time tonight.

    According to the Gray Lady (NYT $)

    "Indiana’s primary also features some notable elections with implications for the direction of the Republican Party. This year, more incumbents at the state level are facing primary challengers from the right than in at least a decade, according to a review by The Indianapolis Star, potentially resulting in an even more conservative legislative supermajority.

    North of Indianapolis, in Hamilton County, the re-election campaign of the prosecutor D. Lee Buckingham against Greg Garrison, a conservative talk-show host, is garnering outsize attention: Mr. Buckingham has the support of former Vice President Mike Pence."

    Remains to be seen what impact today's news re: Roe v Wade may have on today's AND subsequent primaries as well as 2022 general election.

    Today too early to tell, obviously, but possible that as year progresses SCOTUS reversal of RvW could reduce current advantage in enthusiasm gap enjoyed by Republicans at present, by galvanizing, mobilizing and turning out Democrats & pro-choice swing voters, esp. in key, mostly-suburban counties and districts critical in key 2022 gubernatorial, senatorial, congressional, legislative and local races across America.

    I know this isnt the main takeaway, but what's a Hoosier?

    Good question.

    Short answer: a native or assimilated resident of State of Indiana.

    What? See wiki blurb below, but fact is, Indiana has one of the strongest state identities in the USA, based in part (like WVa) of tendency of bigger, richer neighbors looking down their noses at them.

    Note that in much of upland South, a "hoosier" is a uncooth rural yokel (even by uncooth rural yokel standards).

    Further note that in the early 1800s, residents of Illinois were called "Suckers" a nickname they shed (on purpose) long ago.

    Personally think that "Sucker" and "Hoosier" have pretty much the same meaning. With the former coming to mean in American argot NOT people from what we call the Land of Lincoln, but just the general run of, well, suckers.

    While on the other hand, Hoosiers came to refer, not to a universal class, but just to folks from Indiana.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoosier

    Addendum - there was a lot of French Canadian influence in the Midwest, on the Great Lakes AND the Ohio River and it's tributaries such as the Wabash, the Ganges (sort of) of Indiana. Hence "hoosier" which is French (ditto).
    Canadians have the quite similar word Hoser, which was used a lot on How I Met Your Mother, that's the only reference to it I knew.
    Hoosier has a movie of the name about a basketball team which helped cement the identity. I saw it on a plane in the days when there was no choice.
    Hoser was made famous by Bob and Doug on SNL. It means loser. From the convention that losing hockey teams at very low levels were responsible for hosing down the ice to be zambonied for the next game.
    Re: Hoosiers, you're putting the cart before the horse, the identity was well-cemented before the movie, which was a BIG hit in Indiana as was emblematic of local folks myths, centered around THE state sport of baskeball.

    As for hosers, think what you're giving is back-handed etymology, like "who's there?" for "hoosier".

    That is, an explanation after the fact, that has little or zero relationship to how the word came to be, but makes "sense" in modern language and context. But will defer to actual hockey players!
    Wiki seems to give first written use of "hoser" as 1981. But like most words it would have probably been in use long before that. See also "Shakespeare invented loads of words".
    No he didn't. He was the first to write down what his audience were saying. Otherwise how would your average Elizabethan punter have known what he was on about?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoser
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,583

    Hmm, Tomb Raider's been sold for $300m. Be interesting to see what angle the new games go... though I fear the games as a service nonsense may rear its ugly head.

    I can connect this story with trans issues, via an old nutty company and our nasty media.

    (Ku)Eidos to anyone else who can. ;)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Doesn't mean that Mr Holden is right, still less the DM. Timing, remember.We've had this beer bottle story for many months, so why are they coming out of the woodwork now? As DA says it's all about the election and how much shite can be flung before then.

    It's shameful to see you defending the DM and the Tories' approach to fair and measured political debate of the issues of the day.

    Starmer has brought this on himself ,and you need to remember that while I want Boris out of office today if possible, I am still a conservative voter by nature and am not just going to quietly go away and indeed there are a great many conservative mps across the party who are, and will continue to, seek answers to this episode

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico679 said:

    The SCOTUS decision will inflame US politics at a time when it’s already deeply polarized .

    The choice is clear in November and this will impact many of the close races . Governors and state legislatures will be very much more at the forefront and it’s likely you’ll see a lot of up ballot effect .

    Make no mistake behind the scenes the Dems will know this is a gift from the court which could help them save the senate.

    Yup, that and letting Trump back on Twitter.

    Still, it remains to be seen if the court will actually do this. If they're religious ideologues they will, but if they're political hacks they won't: What a political hack would do would be to leak that they were going to overturn, then do something that doesn't actually technically overturn but lets states almost completely ban abortion in practice. After the leak this will appear moderate and not really do much for Dem turnout.
    That's what I expect to happen. Some of the intended legislation in deep Red States, if Roe is overturned, is pretty grim, and would surely impact upon the Republicans' chances.
    Not in deep Red states as most voters there are anti abortion, though it might drive up Democrat turnout in blue and purple states which are more pro choice
    But they were voting Republican anyway. It will motivate Democrats and Independents and maybe some Republicans who think 'For the grace of God that could be me'.
    Not sure about that and I think it’s lazy to make that assumption.

    Sure, it will motivate white, middle class educated liberals to vote and get out their Handmaiden Tale’s outfits. But the Democrats have them anyway and they are concentrated in already heavily Blue areas.

    However, there is a fair chunk of the Democrat base - particularly Black but also a good chunk of the Hispanic vote - which is socially conservative but votes Democrat.

    Turn this into a supercharger electoral issue and you might find a good chunk of those voters decide to exit the Democrat base.

    Then there is @SeaShantyIrish2’s point. People in the States are used to flying large distances for regular routine visits to see family etc given air travel is so connected. It actually takes nearly twice as long to get from Belfast to Liverpool by ferry than from Mobile Alabama to Boston MA. So saying people having to travel to get abortions is not going to be seen as necessarily an unreasonable point @BartholomewRoberts thinks to many people.

    In any event, I think what happens is that you get springing up a whole organisational network (and funding the cost) helping women who want abortions from banned states to those where it is not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited May 2022
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    *** BETTING POST ***

    You can get 2/1 on the LibDems winning control of Woking Council. 10 of the 30 seats are up for grabs and, knowing the area as I do, I think this is a value bet. They have made steady gains in recent times and they are already the largest party. It's clear that the party machine is up and running hard for this.

    I've only seen LibDem posters up and there is a lot of anger directed towards the Conservatives. In addition the tory run minority council has squandered huge amounts of money and the council is now the third most most debt-ridden in the country.

    I think at 2/1 this is value. I'm on.

    https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/partygate-made-conservatives-grumpy-what-23812465

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    https://wokinglibdems.org.uk/en/article/2021/1421356/shock-by-election-win-paves-way-for-lib-dem-gain-in-woking

    https://www.libdems.org.uk/willforster/polling_day_in_woking

    Woking is only 26th on the LD target list for the next general election, no surprise they are targeting it
    Although it might be a target in the GE, it is not being especially done so in these local elections. There are no calls for help even from boroughs without election (eg where I am and I am only 5 miles from Woking). It is and has been for many years a very tight and actively fought borough by both the Tories an LDs and with a Tory run borough who are in a minority and with financial issues it is prime territory for LD gains to take overall control. Just a tough set of circumstances for the Tories here really.
    I expect the heaviest Tory losses on Thursday to be in anti Brexit areas which most dislike Boris.

    Woking was 56% Remain, similar councils in Remain areas of the Home Counties like Guildford and South Oxfordshire have already gone LD so I would not be surprised to see the LDs take it.

    The Tories are also likely to lose Tunbridge Wells on Thursday too partly for the same reasons as well as local factors
    I agree generally, but sometimes local factors are a bigger aspect as you point out re Tunbridge Wells. That is certainly the case with Guildford. Guildford is not LD controlled. It is in coalition with Indies and the Indies made the bigger wins (some wards by huge margins eg mine). This was because of Tory scandals and the local plan. You only have to speak to Mole Valley Tories to find out about what happened to the Guildford Tories. No love lost at the time.

    Re Tunbridge Wells - I have no knowledge although I used to live in Crowborough but lost contact now. A lovely area in which I believe you used to live also.
    Yes and where the Tories are currently in minority control they are likely to lose to LDs and Independents like Guildford on Thursday.

    The LDs now are largest party in Remain Mole Valley too with 22 seats to 12 for the Tories

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Mole_Valley_District_Council_election
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Sure! But Richard Holden has provided no new evidence. The two students have provided no new evidence. Cases do get reopened and re-examined but there has to be a reason to do so.

    I don't know how else to explain this to you. Policing is evidence-based. The police have investigated the complain and investigated the evidence. Making the same complaint about the same evidence doesn't create a new line of enquiry. #

    What could be done is that people could put in a complaint about the police that they have not properly carried out their duties. Which would be at least initially an internal investigation. As far as I know that hasn't been requested. Why not if the pursuit of justice is the motive and the complainants believe an actual crime has been committed?
    Native has downstreamed some new evidence.
  • MalcolmDunnMalcolmDunn Posts: 139
    Glad you're better Mike. But is it really true that who've had four injections really get covid any more mildly than those who have only had three or fewer? Perhaps the disease is just not very lethal anymore? It never really was for the under 60's anyway.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Doesn't mean that Mr Holden is right, still less the DM. Timing, remember.We've had this beer bottle story for many months, so why are they coming out of the woodwork now? As DA says it's all about the election and how much shite can be flung before then.

    It's shameful to see you defending the DM and the Tories' approach to fair and measured political debate of the issues of the day.

    Starmer has brought this on himself ,and you need to remember that while I want Boris out of office today if possible, I am still a conservative voter by nature and am not just going to quietly go away and indeed there are a great many conservative mps across the party who are, and will continue to, seek answers to this episode

    You mean, he's committed the political crime of not being liked by you? As the police investigated at the time - which is a damn sight more than they did for No 10 - it's difficult to see what else you can condemn him for.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Good on Susanna Reid for asking about the rise in Carer's Allowance the level of which the PM did not know.

    It is now £69.70 a week.

    It was £67.60.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited May 2022

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    NATO has always been defensive.

    What was NATO doing running ISAF in Afghanistan from 2005 to 2021? There wasn't much chance of the Taliban crossing the Rhine.
    A good question, with a complicated answer.
    https://www.lawfareblog.com/five-myths-about-nato-and-afghanistan
    What a crappy article with many false premises and strawmen. Not addressing the point that NATO was there as an aggressor because no NATO state was at risk.

    Also, having listened to Richard Shireff, ex Dep Comd SACEUR say how the UK should step up against Russia, that UK defense forces should be hosed with more money, and that "UK society should prepare itself" or words to that effect the credibility which anyone should give to: "four dozen former senior U.S. and NATO military and political officials, including SACEURs, undersecretaries of defense, deputy assistant secretaries, members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, CENTCOM, the NATO Military Committee and national chiefs of defense" is tiny.

    Of course they are going to tell it how they want you to think it went.
    NATO was not an aggressor, if it arrived in Afghanistan in 2005 then it was invited in by the Afghani government.

    Being invited in by the government of a state does not make you an aggressor.
    It means that NATO took sides with the Afghan govt and hence conducted an aggressive war against the Taleban. Which of course it lost but that's another discussion.
    In 2005 it was a defensive war against the Taleban, not an aggressive war.
    The Afghan campaign (rightly or wrongly - as I said, certainly unsuccessfully) was about picking a side and conducting a war of extreme aggression against the other side.

    I know we have had this discussion previously when the villagers or wedding attendee victims of various NATO missile strikes should, in your opinion, have been grateful that they were obliterated in the cause of what you think was a defensive war but really, it was a war of aggression.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nadine LOLz part 94

    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/1521092894987325445

    The picture Nadine Dorries is retweeting is of Keir Starmer sharing a curry with Frank Dobson who died in 2019. Ergo he could not have been eating with Keir Starmer in 2021 no matter what time of day it was. Nadine Dorries is the Cabinet minister responsible for #disinformation

    To be fair to Mad Nad, the Daily Fail chose the picture not her, she just shared the article.

    And to be fair to the Daily Heil, its not unusual for papers to use stock photos in their articles, so they've attached an image of Keir eating curry to an article about Keir eating curry - not claimed that is the image of that event.

    As a corollary any time an article is shared about "empty shelves" due to supply issues/panic buying etc the same few stock photos get rotated and shared on Twitter like that with the news articles. Some idiots then choose to believe that photo is a real photo rather than simply a stock image.
    BR Lolz pt94......
    How's it a Lolz? I despise the Daily Heil and am not a fan of Mad Nadz, as my choice of nomenclature for both of them should have made clear.

    But I'm also not a fan of Twitter lies and disinformation. News articles using stock imagery is nothing new and people misrepresenting it are just being stupid.
    So the cabinet minister responsible for media publicly attacks the leader of the opposition for something the police have already said was not a crime using a fake photo, and it is the people who point this out that are misrepresenting.......
    She didn't use a fake photo, that's been falsely cropped to imply that. She shared an article from a Daily Heil article, and the Daily Heil used a stock photo of Keir eating curry to attach to a story about . . . Keir eating curry. She referenced Keir eating curry in her text too.

    Stock photos are nothing new.
    It's a cropped photo from 2015 where SKS is eating a meal with the sadly deceased Frank Dobson to reflect the fact he took over Frank's (safe) seat.
    Which sounds like an inaccurate precis of the Rocky Horrow Picture Show
    Yeah. We await SKS in basque and stockings
    It was great when it all began
    I was a regular starmer fan
    But it was over when he had a Plan
    To breach lockdown rules and have a curry.

    Appreciate it doesn’t scan. But hey Ho.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Sure! But Richard Holden has provided no new evidence. The two students have provided no new evidence. Cases do get reopened and re-examined but there has to be a reason to do so.

    I don't know how else to explain this to you. Policing is evidence-based. The police have investigated the complain and investigated the evidence. Making the same complaint about the same evidence doesn't create a new line of enquiry. #

    What could be done is that people could put in a complaint about the police that they have not properly carried out their duties. Which would be at least initially an internal investigation. As far as I know that hasn't been requested. Why not if the pursuit of justice is the motive and the complainants believe an actual crime has been committed?
    Durham Police have not responded to Richard Holden's letter and as we know these matters take time.

    Once that response is known then I would expect either the police will undertake a review or as you rightly say a complaint that the police have not acted properly could be quite likely
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    OT a bit.
    But Whitley Bay seems a strange choice to be campaigning in.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Doesn't mean that Mr Holden is right, still less the DM. Timing, remember.We've had this beer bottle story for many months, so why are they coming out of the woodwork now? As DA says it's all about the election and how much shite can be flung before then.

    It's shameful to see you defending the DM and the Tories' approach to fair and measured political debate of the issues of the day.

    The PM being delivered a birthday cake, was reported in the Times the day after it happened. Didn’t stop it suddenly becoming a story 18 months later.
    Man is delivered cake on his birthday = not news.
    Man does it while breaking his own covid rules and this only becomes clear later = news later.
    Why wasn't it clear at the time? The details as reported in the Times the following day don't appear to be substantively different from what is known now.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Sure! But Richard Holden has provided no new evidence. The two students have provided no new evidence. Cases do get reopened and re-examined but there has to be a reason to do so.

    I don't know how else to explain this to you. Policing is evidence-based. The police have investigated the complain and investigated the evidence. Making the same complaint about the same evidence doesn't create a new line of enquiry. #

    What could be done is that people could put in a complaint about the police that they have not properly carried out their duties. Which would be at least initially an internal investigation. As far as I know that hasn't been requested. Why not if the pursuit of justice is the motive and the complainants believe an actual crime has been committed?
    The only new evidence seems to be Rayner being there too. If it was legal before I do not see how this changes it.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    Glad you're better Mike. But is it really true that who've had four injections really get covid any more mildly than those who have only had three or fewer? Perhaps the disease is just not very lethal anymore? It never really was for the under 60's anyway.

    Omicron is inherently less severe to a given unvaccinated / naive immune system patient. But it’s higher infectiousness means it can quickly cause a massive clusterduck in a naive population. See China. The vaccine programme / prior infection in the West mean that covid isn’t something here people think about much. But in China it’s causing as big an impact on life as it ever did.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Doesn't mean that Mr Holden is right, still less the DM. Timing, remember.We've had this beer bottle story for many months, so why are they coming out of the woodwork now? As DA says it's all about the election and how much shite can be flung before then.

    It's shameful to see you defending the DM and the Tories' approach to fair and measured political debate of the issues of the day.

    Starmer has brought this on himself ,and you need to remember that while I want Boris out of office today if possible, I am still a conservative voter by nature and am not just going to quietly go away and indeed there are a great many conservative mps across the party who are, and will continue to, seek answers to this episode

    You really are obsessed by this beergate/currygate thing - never seen so many posts on so little. Do you think Durham police are reading this? If not, why can't you just patiently wait and see what happens? If Starmer has committed gross crimes, the truth will out I'm sure.
  • MalcolmDunnMalcolmDunn Posts: 139
    Personally I wish the Daily Mail all the luck in the world in its quest to show that Starmer is a Grade A hypocrite and probably dishonest about covid rulebreaking too.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    on topic

    Glad you are feeling better Mike. Hope Mrs S recovers soon.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Probably not the headline they were aiming for...

    🔴Boris Johnson admits Government not doing enough on cost-of-living crisis

    Follow all the latest updates on our politics liveblog here 👇

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/03/boris-johnson-news-ukraine-keir-starmer-local-elections/ https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1521420230320340992/photo/1
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836
    Applicant said:

    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Doesn't mean that Mr Holden is right, still less the DM. Timing, remember.We've had this beer bottle story for many months, so why are they coming out of the woodwork now? As DA says it's all about the election and how much shite can be flung before then.

    It's shameful to see you defending the DM and the Tories' approach to fair and measured political debate of the issues of the day.

    The PM being delivered a birthday cake, was reported in the Times the day after it happened. Didn’t stop it suddenly becoming a story 18 months later.
    Man is delivered cake on his birthday = not news.
    Man does it while breaking his own covid rules and this only becomes clear later = news later.
    Why wasn't it clear at the time? The details as reported in the Times the following day don't appear to be substantively different from what is known now.
    Cake in itself doesn't mean anything - it could have been part of a working lunch within the bubble, ditto a glass of wine with lunch as BR pointed out. It was the details of the meeting/event (non workers, social to some degree). And the other events as well on different dates.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Sure! But Richard Holden has provided no new evidence. The two students have provided no new evidence. Cases do get reopened and re-examined but there has to be a reason to do so.

    I don't know how else to explain this to you. Policing is evidence-based. The police have investigated the complain and investigated the evidence. Making the same complaint about the same evidence doesn't create a new line of enquiry. #

    What could be done is that people could put in a complaint about the police that they have not properly carried out their duties. Which would be at least initially an internal investigation. As far as I know that hasn't been requested. Why not if the pursuit of justice is the motive and the complainants believe an actual crime has been committed?
    Durham Police have not responded to Richard Holden's letter and as we know these matters take time.

    Once that response is known then I would expect either the police will undertake a review or as you rightly say a complaint that the police have not acted properly could be quite likely
    "expect".

    You are assuming the police will lift a finger. So much for decency and justice in the Conservative mentality.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    dixiedean said:

    OT a bit.
    But Whitley Bay seems a strange choice to be campaigning in.

    Northern town, close to a massive new investment in a battery factory creating 3,000 jobs. A good example of levelling-up for the government to showcase.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    MrEd said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico679 said:

    The SCOTUS decision will inflame US politics at a time when it’s already deeply polarized .

    The choice is clear in November and this will impact many of the close races . Governors and state legislatures will be very much more at the forefront and it’s likely you’ll see a lot of up ballot effect .

    Make no mistake behind the scenes the Dems will know this is a gift from the court which could help them save the senate.

    Yup, that and letting Trump back on Twitter.

    Still, it remains to be seen if the court will actually do this. If they're religious ideologues they will, but if they're political hacks they won't: What a political hack would do would be to leak that they were going to overturn, then do something that doesn't actually technically overturn but lets states almost completely ban abortion in practice. After the leak this will appear moderate and not really do much for Dem turnout.
    That's what I expect to happen. Some of the intended legislation in deep Red States, if Roe is overturned, is pretty grim, and would surely impact upon the Republicans' chances.
    Not in deep Red states as most voters there are anti abortion, though it might drive up Democrat turnout in blue and purple states which are more pro choice
    But they were voting Republican anyway. It will motivate Democrats and Independents and maybe some Republicans who think 'For the grace of God that could be me'.
    Not sure about that and I think it’s lazy to make that assumption.

    Sure, it will motivate white, middle class educated liberals to vote and get out their Handmaiden Tale’s outfits. But the Democrats have them anyway and they are concentrated in already heavily Blue areas.

    However, there is a fair chunk of the Democrat base - particularly Black but also a good chunk of the Hispanic vote - which is socially conservative but votes Democrat.

    Turn this into a supercharger electoral issue and you might find a good chunk of those voters decide to exit the Democrat base.

    Then there is @SeaShantyIrish2’s point. People in the States are used to flying large distances for regular routine visits to see family etc given air travel is so connected. It actually takes nearly twice as long to get from Belfast to Liverpool by ferry than from Mobile Alabama to Boston MA. So saying people having to travel to get abortions is not going to be seen as necessarily an unreasonable point @BartholomewRoberts thinks to many people.

    In any event, I think what happens is that you get springing up a whole organisational network (and funding the cost) helping women who want abortions from banned states to those where it is not.
    About two thirds of American voters don't want Roe vs Wade overturned, according to the polls. So if there are Democratic voters who are anti-abortion, there must be even more Republicans who are pro-abortion. I suspect this move will backfire on the Republicans, who will have to go on the airwaves to defend this policy every time a thirteen year old gets raped by her uncle then dies in childbirth.
    Abortion will still happen anyway, just like it always did; the rich will find a friendly doctor willing to do it for the right price, while the poor will find some pills on the Internet or risk sepsis with a coat hanger. All brought to you by Donald Trump, a man who probably kept half on NYC's abortionists in business during the 1980s.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    OT a bit.
    But Whitley Bay seems a strange choice to be campaigning in.

    Northern town, close to a massive new investment in a battery factory creating 3,000 jobs. A good example of levelling-up for the government to showcase.
    True but the Tories have no chance at all of taking North Tyneside council.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    edited May 2022

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Doesn't mean that Mr Holden is right, still less the DM. Timing, remember.We've had this beer bottle story for many months, so why are they coming out of the woodwork now? As DA says it's all about the election and how much shite can be flung before then.

    It's shameful to see you defending the DM and the Tories' approach to fair and measured political debate of the issues of the day.

    Starmer has brought this on himself ,and you need to remember that while I want Boris out of office today if possible, I am still a conservative voter by nature and am not just going to quietly go away and indeed there are a great many conservative mps across the party who are, and will continue to, seek answers to this episode

    You really are obsessed by this beergate/currygate thing - never seen so many posts on so little. Do you think Durham police are reading this? If not, why can't you just patiently wait and see what happens? If Starmer has committed gross crimes, the truth will out I'm sure.
    Starmer has not committed a gross crime, indeed breaking covid regulations itself results in a FPN which is not registered as a crime

    As far as raising the issue it was Sky and Kay Burley/ Tamara Cohen who raised it throughout their morning programme but it seems the very mention of it is like lighting a touch paper to labour supporters

    This is Sky's report this morning

    https://news.sky.com/story/durham-police-should-reopen-investigation-into-sir-keir-starmer-lockdown-beers-footage-minister-says-12604490
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    dixiedean said:

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    I need educating about windfall taxes.

    Radio 4 this AM:

    7:20 Sir Ed interview: We will introduce a windfall tax on oil companies' excessive profits.
    (Also heavyweight denial of any Lib-Lab pact)
    7:30 (first I head) News Headline: BP makes £16bn loss.

    How does this work? Can a Govt say "we are having X billions of this, even though you made an overall loss because of the Ukraine War?"

    If this comes down to a Court scrimmage, I'd punt that the walking away from Russia voluntarily (if it was) would be a problem for BP.

    8:10 Sir Keir adopts the same position on BP. 20 minute interview and that was one of about three questions he answered, including about 4 goes at not answering whether the Durham Constabulary have been in contact again since the food-beer-food work event became news.

    Anne Marie Trevelyan suggesting that when Starmer gets his FPNs he doesn't have to resign. I can see what is at work here. "If Starmer doesn't resign for his egregious and wilful breach of Covid rules why should Johnson resign for the minor indiscretion of being ambushed by cake".

    If Starmer accepts an FPN he has to go.
    Why haven’t labour closed this story down. Starmer won’t be getting an FPN
    Hypothesis: Starmer knows the Labour campaign event was legal. Both because the police have said "nothing to suggest an offence being committed" when looking at the evidence and because he's a top lawyer.

    So, what does allowing this to rumble on do? He knows at the end of this that he will be cleared. Again. Which will make all the Tories demanding he get a fine for having a curry with Frank Dobson look stupid.

    But far more than that - what is everyone reading this story doing? They are saying "Boris broke the law". Reinforced over and over and over again. That they want Starmer to get a fine like Boris restates that Boris got fined for breaking the law. So instead of the campaign being able to move onto areas the Tories want to talk about (like Council Tax) the tank is neatly parked on the Tories lawn.

    "Boris broke the law and got fined. Its not fair that the police won't investigate Starmer." just keep reminding people that the PM is a crook.

    Perhaps that is why he has allowed it to roll on and on.
    Which is one interpretation.
    Which raises the issue. Why are the Mail and the Tories so keen on keeping the issue going?
    The only thought I can conclude is they know the PM has multiple fines, to be revealed next Friday.
    We can only hope!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    dixiedean said:

    OT a bit.
    But Whitley Bay seems a strange choice to be campaigning in.

    He thought he was on Teesside.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Sure! But Richard Holden has provided no new evidence. The two students have provided no new evidence. Cases do get reopened and re-examined but there has to be a reason to do so.

    I don't know how else to explain this to you. Policing is evidence-based. The police have investigated the complain and investigated the evidence. Making the same complaint about the same evidence doesn't create a new line of enquiry. #

    What could be done is that people could put in a complaint about the police that they have not properly carried out their duties. Which would be at least initially an internal investigation. As far as I know that hasn't been requested. Why not if the pursuit of justice is the motive and the complainants believe an actual crime has been committed?
    The only new evidence seems to be Rayner being there too. If it was legal before I do not see how this changes it.
    Which is the thing driving the Tories the most nuts. "SHE WAS THERE" "WHY DID LABOUR LIE" etc etc hasn't moved the police one bit. If as they have concluded from the primary evidence it was a campaign meeting then it doesn't matter if she was there or not.

    Its like someone demanding to know if I was tucking into a Burger King at Luton airport last Friday. I get my many trips through Luton mixed up and say I didn't. Then it comes to light that I did enjoy Whopper goodness on that occasion. "WHY DID HE LIE" is met with "I was legally there".

    Honestly don't get what Big_G and others are camping out for. Holden's letter presents no fresh evidence. The two Tiry students want to present the already reviewed evidence. Not liking someone doesn't provide a reason for the police to investigate baseless allegations.

    A good friend of mine was dragged through the ringer maliciously by their ex who made baseless allegations so serious the police had to investigate. There was no evidence - none - so it was quickly dropped. The ex then goes even more off the scale demanding this and that for the police who eventually had to threaten her with action unless she stopped wasting their time.

    Show us the evidence Big_G.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Sure! But Richard Holden has provided no new evidence. The two students have provided no new evidence. Cases do get reopened and re-examined but there has to be a reason to do so.

    I don't know how else to explain this to you. Policing is evidence-based. The police have investigated the complain and investigated the evidence. Making the same complaint about the same evidence doesn't create a new line of enquiry. #

    What could be done is that people could put in a complaint about the police that they have not properly carried out their duties. Which would be at least initially an internal investigation. As far as I know that hasn't been requested. Why not if the pursuit of justice is the motive and the complainants believe an actual crime has been committed?
    Durham Police have not responded to Richard Holden's letter and as we know these matters take time.

    Once that response is known then I would expect either the police will undertake a review or as you rightly say a complaint that the police have not acted properly could be quite likely
    "expect".

    You are assuming the police will lift a finger. So much for decency and justice in the Conservative mentality.
    expect was either or on a possible outcome
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    dixiedean said:

    OT a bit.
    But Whitley Bay seems a strange choice to be campaigning in.

    He thought he was on Teesside.
    "Ah, the famous Redcar Beacon." https://twitter.com/michaelglasper/status/1521257079335497739/photo/1


  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662

    Wow. Sounds like PM's GMB interview was an absolute car crash.


    Adam Bienkov
    @AdamBienkov
    ·
    1h
    Replying to
    @AdamBienkov
    Susanna Reid told Boris Johnson that 77-year-old Elsie stays on the buses all day in order to stay warm and use less energy. Johnson responds by congratulating himself for making freedom passes 24 hours. Quite extraordinary.

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1521396481265221632

    Labour says if she votes for her Labour Council Candidate she will get up to £600 help.

    My sofa was in an up to 5000% off sale and they promised to end world famine if I purchased it.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    tlg86 said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    *** BETTING POST ***

    You can get 2/1 on the LibDems winning control of Woking Council. 10 of the 30 seats are up for grabs and, knowing the area as I do, I think this is a value bet. They have made steady gains in recent times and they are already the largest party. It's clear that the party machine is up and running hard for this.

    I've only seen LibDem posters up and there is a lot of anger directed towards the Conservatives. In addition the tory run minority council has squandered huge amounts of money and the council is now the third most most debt-ridden in the country.

    I think at 2/1 this is value. I'm on.

    https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/partygate-made-conservatives-grumpy-what-23812465

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    https://wokinglibdems.org.uk/en/article/2021/1421356/shock-by-election-win-paves-way-for-lib-dem-gain-in-woking

    https://www.libdems.org.uk/willforster/polling_day_in_woking

    Woking is only 26th on the LD target list for the next general election, no surprise they are targeting it
    Although it might be a target in the GE, it is not being especially done so in these local elections. There are no calls for help even from boroughs without election (eg where I am and I am only 5 miles from Woking). It is and has been for many years a very tight and actively fought borough by both the Tories an LDs and with a Tory run borough who are in a minority and with financial issues it is prime territory for LD gains to take overall control. Just a tough set of circumstances for the Tories here really.
    I expect the heaviest Tory losses on Thursday to be in anti Brexit areas which most dislike Boris.

    Woking was 56% Remain, similar councils in Remain areas of the Home Counties like Guildford and South Oxfordshire have already gone LD so I would not be surprised to see the LDs take it.

    The Tories are also likely to lose Tunbridge Wells on Thursday too partly for the same reasons as well as local factors
    I agree generally, but sometimes local factors are a bigger aspect as you point out re Tunbridge Wells. That is certainly the case with Guildford. Guildford is not LD controlled. It is in coalition with Indies and the Indies made the bigger wins (some wards by huge margins eg mine). This was because of Tory scandals and the local plan. You only have to speak to Mole Valley Tories to find out about what happened to the Guildford Tories. No love lost at the time.

    Re Tunbridge Wells - I have no knowledge although I used to live in Crowborough but lost contact now. A lovely area in which I believe you used to live also.
    Remind me, what went down in Guildford? In Woking, the attitude of the council has been "it's either tower blocks or building houses on green spaces and golf courses."

    But I don't see any tower blocks in Guildford, so I guess they went for new housing estates like this one:

    https://www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/new-homes/guildford/montague-place
    Hi @tlg86 I wondered if you would post as I know you are in Woking. I lived in the Borough from being 9 until my early 30s and can tell lots of stories, some quite funny.

    Guildford Tories implosion is a long story and pre dates the local plan. There was infighting, a councillor sent down for corruption related to this stuff, an attempted coup to try and impose an elected mayor, corruption in getting the signatures for the referendum which was eventually lost by 90%. 20,000 written objections (yes really 20,000) against the local plan, which was an utter shambles, but passed on the eve of the local election that they knew they were going to lose. Fell out with the Mole Valley Tories over all this.

    Needless to say a significant number of Tories defected to the newly formed Indies. The LDs picked up what would have been their typical targets. The Indies stood in the safe Tory wards and slaughtered them with huge margins.

    I live in a rock solid safe Tory ward. It now has 3 Indy borough councillors and a Indy county councillor.

    That really is a brief summary. What happened really isn't a fair reflection on proper Tories and I'm sure they will be back, but they have been thrown out by their own supporters.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    MrEd said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    I don’t know why Labour continues with this line that it doesn’t matter and there is nothing to see here. If there was truly nothing, you think they would have a better argument. It’s clear from yours - who is not a Tory-at-any-cost voter - plus arguably the Best PM polling that the voters are sceptical of Labour’s stance. Blaming it on the machinations of the Daily Mail is a lazy argument.
    Saying there's nothing in it when there's nothing in it shows there's probably something in it?

    You seem to have wandered into that hall of mirrors of yours again.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    If you can’t define woman, never mind use the actual word ‘woman’ when it comes to women’s reproductive rights, then how do you campaign for women?

    - Birthing bodies have the right to freedom.

    Deciding if or when to become a parent is one of the most personal, life-changing decisions. Access to abortion & reproductive care is a decision we must trust each person to make based on what’s best for their health & their future


    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1521384313396219909
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    NATO has always been defensive.

    What was NATO doing running ISAF in Afghanistan from 2005 to 2021? There wasn't much chance of the Taliban crossing the Rhine.
    A good question, with a complicated answer.
    https://www.lawfareblog.com/five-myths-about-nato-and-afghanistan
    What a crappy article with many false premises and strawmen. Not addressing the point that NATO was there as an aggressor because no NATO state was at risk.

    Also, having listened to Richard Shireff, ex Dep Comd SACEUR say how the UK should step up against Russia, that UK defense forces should be hosed with more money, and that "UK society should prepare itself" or words to that effect the credibility which anyone should give to: "four dozen former senior U.S. and NATO military and political officials, including SACEURs, undersecretaries of defense, deputy assistant secretaries, members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, CENTCOM, the NATO Military Committee and national chiefs of defense" is tiny.

    Of course they are going to tell it how they want you to think it went.
    NATO was not an aggressor, if it arrived in Afghanistan in 2005 then it was invited in by the Afghani government.

    Being invited in by the government of a state does not make you an aggressor.
    It means that NATO took sides with the Afghan govt and hence conducted an aggressive war against the Taleban. Which of course it lost but that's another discussion.
    In 2005 it was a defensive war against the Taleban, not an aggressive war.
    The Taliban regime fell in November 2001 after Mazar-e-Sharif. When NATO turned up two years later they were not defending any NATO member from anything.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Sure! But Richard Holden has provided no new evidence. The two students have provided no new evidence. Cases do get reopened and re-examined but there has to be a reason to do so.

    I don't know how else to explain this to you. Policing is evidence-based. The police have investigated the complain and investigated the evidence. Making the same complaint about the same evidence doesn't create a new line of enquiry. #

    What could be done is that people could put in a complaint about the police that they have not properly carried out their duties. Which would be at least initially an internal investigation. As far as I know that hasn't been requested. Why not if the pursuit of justice is the motive and the complainants believe an actual crime has been committed?
    The only new evidence seems to be Rayner being there too. If it was legal before I do not see how this changes it.
    Which is the thing driving the Tories the most nuts. "SHE WAS THERE" "WHY DID LABOUR LIE" etc etc hasn't moved the police one bit. If as they have concluded from the primary evidence it was a campaign meeting then it doesn't matter if she was there or not.

    Its like someone demanding to know if I was tucking into a Burger King at Luton airport last Friday. I get my many trips through Luton mixed up and say I didn't. Then it comes to light that I did enjoy Whopper goodness on that occasion. "WHY DID HE LIE" is met with "I was legally there".

    Honestly don't get what Big_G and others are camping out for. Holden's letter presents no fresh evidence. The two Tiry students want to present the already reviewed evidence. Not liking someone doesn't provide a reason for the police to investigate baseless allegations.

    A good friend of mine was dragged through the ringer maliciously by their ex who made baseless allegations so serious the police had to investigate. There was no evidence - none - so it was quickly dropped. The ex then goes even more off the scale demanding this and that for the police who eventually had to threaten her with action unless she stopped wasting their time.

    Show us the evidence Big_G.
    Evidence is for Richard Holden and others to provide and they are not going to let this go until they have been satisfied which of course could conclude Starmer was in compliance of covid regulations but equally it may not
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Doesn't mean that Mr Holden is right, still less the DM. Timing, remember.We've had this beer bottle story for many months, so why are they coming out of the woodwork now? As DA says it's all about the election and how much shite can be flung before then.

    It's shameful to see you defending the DM and the Tories' approach to fair and measured political debate of the issues of the day.

    Starmer has brought this on himself ,and you need to remember that while I want Boris out of office today if possible, I am still a conservative voter by nature and am not just going to quietly go away and indeed there are a great many conservative mps across the party who are, and will continue to, seek answers to this episode

    You really are obsessed by this beergate/currygate thing - never seen so many posts on so little. Do you think Durham police are reading this? If not, why can't you just patiently wait and see what happens? If Starmer has committed gross crimes, the truth will out I'm sure.
    Starmer has not committed a gross crime, indeed breaking covid regulations itself results in a FPN which is not registered as a crime

    As far as raising the issue it was Sky and Kay Burley/ Tamara Cohen who raised it throughout their morning programme but it seems the very mention of it is like lighting a touch paper to labour supporters

    This is Sky's report this morning

    https://news.sky.com/story/durham-police-should-reopen-investigation-into-sir-keir-starmer-lockdown-beers-footage-minister-says-12604490
    And the final paras in the report?

    "Last month, the prime minister, Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Mr Johnson's wife Carrie Johnson were all issued fixed-penalty notices for attending an event to mark the prime minister's 56th birthday.

    The prime minister, who has faced persistent calls to resign over partygate, is thought to have been at more of the 12 events under investigation by Scotland Yard.

    The Met Police has said it will not issue any further partygate updates before the May local elections."

    This is why Labour are letting it rumble on. Every Single Report - a reminder of actual laws being broken and actual fines being issued against the PM and his missus and the Chancellor. Keeps the issue front and centre.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,247
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Also Primary Day in the great Hoosier State of Indiana

    In-person P-Day voting begins in a few hours, running from 6am - 6pm local time, which is EDT in most of the state EXCEPT for Northwest (Gary, Michigan City) and Southwest (Evanville) Indiana which are CDT.

    So first Indiana results will be coming in sometime after 11pm UK time tonight.

    According to the Gray Lady (NYT $)

    "Indiana’s primary also features some notable elections with implications for the direction of the Republican Party. This year, more incumbents at the state level are facing primary challengers from the right than in at least a decade, according to a review by The Indianapolis Star, potentially resulting in an even more conservative legislative supermajority.

    North of Indianapolis, in Hamilton County, the re-election campaign of the prosecutor D. Lee Buckingham against Greg Garrison, a conservative talk-show host, is garnering outsize attention: Mr. Buckingham has the support of former Vice President Mike Pence."

    Remains to be seen what impact today's news re: Roe v Wade may have on today's AND subsequent primaries as well as 2022 general election.

    Today too early to tell, obviously, but possible that as year progresses SCOTUS reversal of RvW could reduce current advantage in enthusiasm gap enjoyed by Republicans at present, by galvanizing, mobilizing and turning out Democrats & pro-choice swing voters, esp. in key, mostly-suburban counties and districts critical in key 2022 gubernatorial, senatorial, congressional, legislative and local races across America.

    I know this isnt the main takeaway, but what's a Hoosier?

    Good question.

    Short answer: a native or assimilated resident of State of Indiana.

    What? See wiki blurb below, but fact is, Indiana has one of the strongest state identities in the USA, based in part (like WVa) of tendency of bigger, richer neighbors looking down their noses at them.

    Note that in much of upland South, a "hoosier" is a uncooth rural yokel (even by uncooth rural yokel standards).

    Further note that in the early 1800s, residents of Illinois were called "Suckers" a nickname they shed (on purpose) long ago.

    Personally think that "Sucker" and "Hoosier" have pretty much the same meaning. With the former coming to mean in American argot NOT people from what we call the Land of Lincoln, but just the general run of, well, suckers.

    While on the other hand, Hoosiers came to refer, not to a universal class, but just to folks from Indiana.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoosier

    Addendum - there was a lot of French Canadian influence in the Midwest, on the Great Lakes AND the Ohio River and it's tributaries such as the Wabash, the Ganges (sort of) of Indiana. Hence "hoosier" which is French (ditto).
    Canadians have the quite similar word Hoser, which was used a lot on How I Met Your Mother, that's the only reference to it I knew.
    Hoosier has a movie of the name about a basketball team which helped cement the identity. I saw it on a plane in the days when there was no choice.
    Hoser was made famous by Bob and Doug on SNL. It means loser. From the convention that losing hockey teams at very low levels were responsible for hosing down the ice to be zambonied for the next game.
    Re: Hoosiers, you're putting the cart before the horse, the identity was well-cemented before the movie, which was a BIG hit in Indiana as was emblematic of local folks myths, centered around THE state sport of baskeball.

    As for hosers, think what you're giving is back-handed etymology, like "who's there?" for "hoosier".

    That is, an explanation after the fact, that has little or zero relationship to how the word came to be, but makes "sense" in modern language and context. But will defer to actual hockey players!
    Wiki seems to give first written use of "hoser" as 1981. But like most words it would have probably been in use long before that. See also "Shakespeare invented loads of words".
    No he didn't. He was the first to write down what his audience were saying. Otherwise how would your average Elizabethan punter have known what he was on about?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoser
    Every Shakespeare play includes a few slapstick interludes aimed at average Elizabethan punters, framed by highfalutin linguistic innovation designed to tease and delight the classically educated. Making up words was a national pastime then, as now.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Sure! But Richard Holden has provided no new evidence. The two students have provided no new evidence. Cases do get reopened and re-examined but there has to be a reason to do so.

    I don't know how else to explain this to you. Policing is evidence-based. The police have investigated the complain and investigated the evidence. Making the same complaint about the same evidence doesn't create a new line of enquiry. #

    What could be done is that people could put in a complaint about the police that they have not properly carried out their duties. Which would be at least initially an internal investigation. As far as I know that hasn't been requested. Why not if the pursuit of justice is the motive and the complainants believe an actual crime has been committed?
    The only new evidence seems to be Rayner being there too. If it was legal before I do not see how this changes it.
    Which is the thing driving the Tories the most nuts. "SHE WAS THERE" "WHY DID LABOUR LIE" etc etc hasn't moved the police one bit. If as they have concluded from the primary evidence it was a campaign meeting then it doesn't matter if she was there or not.

    Its like someone demanding to know if I was tucking into a Burger King at Luton airport last Friday. I get my many trips through Luton mixed up and say I didn't. Then it comes to light that I did enjoy Whopper goodness on that occasion. "WHY DID HE LIE" is met with "I was legally there".

    Honestly don't get what Big_G and others are camping out for. Holden's letter presents no fresh evidence. The two Tiry students want to present the already reviewed evidence. Not liking someone doesn't provide a reason for the police to investigate baseless allegations.

    A good friend of mine was dragged through the ringer maliciously by their ex who made baseless allegations so serious the police had to investigate. There was no evidence - none - so it was quickly dropped. The ex then goes even more off the scale demanding this and that for the police who eventually had to threaten her with action unless she stopped wasting their time.

    Show us the evidence Big_G.
    Frank Dobson and Sharon Stone were there what more evidence do you need.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    Well done Mike!, and I hope Mrs smithson gets over it soon. My wife is 76, fifteen years older than me, and I often wonder about the future.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Sure! But Richard Holden has provided no new evidence. The two students have provided no new evidence. Cases do get reopened and re-examined but there has to be a reason to do so.

    I don't know how else to explain this to you. Policing is evidence-based. The police have investigated the complain and investigated the evidence. Making the same complaint about the same evidence doesn't create a new line of enquiry. #

    What could be done is that people could put in a complaint about the police that they have not properly carried out their duties. Which would be at least initially an internal investigation. As far as I know that hasn't been requested. Why not if the pursuit of justice is the motive and the complainants believe an actual crime has been committed?
    The only new evidence seems to be Rayner being there too. If it was legal before I do not see how this changes it.
    Which is the thing driving the Tories the most nuts. "SHE WAS THERE" "WHY DID LABOUR LIE" etc etc hasn't moved the police one bit. If as they have concluded from the primary evidence it was a campaign meeting then it doesn't matter if she was there or not.

    Its like someone demanding to know if I was tucking into a Burger King at Luton airport last Friday. I get my many trips through Luton mixed up and say I didn't. Then it comes to light that I did enjoy Whopper goodness on that occasion. "WHY DID HE LIE" is met with "I was legally there".

    Honestly don't get what Big_G and others are camping out for. Holden's letter presents no fresh evidence. The two Tiry students want to present the already reviewed evidence. Not liking someone doesn't provide a reason for the police to investigate baseless allegations.

    A good friend of mine was dragged through the ringer maliciously by their ex who made baseless allegations so serious the police had to investigate. There was no evidence - none - so it was quickly dropped. The ex then goes even more off the scale demanding this and that for the police who eventually had to threaten her with action unless she stopped wasting their time.

    Show us the evidence Big_G.
    Evidence is for Richard Holden and others to provide and they are not going to let this go until they have been satisfied which of course could conclude Starmer was in compliance of covid regulations but equally it may not
    They can whine all they want. You're absolutely right that it is for Holden et al to provide evidence - so why are you saying that his letter is sufficient for a police investigation to start?

    After I've made my initial baseless allegation against you and the police rightly dismiss it, are you ok if I write them a letter with no evidence whatsoever and they go and pull you in again for interview on something they have already decided was not a crime?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662

    Wow. Sounds like PM's GMB interview was an absolute car crash.


    Adam Bienkov
    @AdamBienkov
    ·
    1h
    Replying to
    @AdamBienkov
    Susanna Reid told Boris Johnson that 77-year-old Elsie stays on the buses all day in order to stay warm and use less energy. Johnson responds by congratulating himself for making freedom passes 24 hours. Quite extraordinary.

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1521396481265221632

    Labour says if she votes for her Labour Council Candidate she will get up to £600 help.

    My sofa was in an up to 5000% off sale and they promised to end world famine if I purchased it.
    DFS does stand for Derbyshire food sharers doesn't it?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Doesn't mean that Mr Holden is right, still less the DM. Timing, remember.We've had this beer bottle story for many months, so why are they coming out of the woodwork now? As DA says it's all about the election and how much shite can be flung before then.

    It's shameful to see you defending the DM and the Tories' approach to fair and measured political debate of the issues of the day.

    Starmer has brought this on himself ,and you need to remember that while I want Boris out of office today if possible, I am still a conservative voter by nature and am not just going to quietly go away and indeed there are a great many conservative mps across the party who are, and will continue to, seek answers to this episode

    You really are obsessed by this beergate/currygate thing - never seen so many posts on so little. Do you think Durham police are reading this? If not, why can't you just patiently wait and see what happens? If Starmer has committed gross crimes, the truth will out I'm sure.
    Starmer has not committed a gross crime, indeed breaking covid regulations itself results in a FPN which is not registered as a crime

    As far as raising the issue it was Sky and Kay Burley/ Tamara Cohen who raised it throughout their morning programme but it seems the very mention of it is like lighting a touch paper to labour supporters

    This is Sky's report this morning

    https://news.sky.com/story/durham-police-should-reopen-investigation-into-sir-keir-starmer-lockdown-beers-footage-minister-says-12604490
    And the final paras in the report?

    "Last month, the prime minister, Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Mr Johnson's wife Carrie Johnson were all issued fixed-penalty notices for attending an event to mark the prime minister's 56th birthday.

    The prime minister, who has faced persistent calls to resign over partygate, is thought to have been at more of the 12 events under investigation by Scotland Yard.

    The Met Police has said it will not issue any further partygate updates before the May local elections."

    This is why Labour are letting it rumble on. Every Single Report - a reminder of actual laws being broken and actual fines being issued against the PM and his missus and the Chancellor. Keeps the issue front and centre.
    I have no problem with that conclusion and repeat my hope that Thursday will herald the end of Boris's Premiership

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    NATO has always been defensive.

    What was NATO doing running ISAF in Afghanistan from 2005 to 2021? There wasn't much chance of the Taliban crossing the Rhine.
    A good question, with a complicated answer.
    https://www.lawfareblog.com/five-myths-about-nato-and-afghanistan
    What a crappy article with many false premises and strawmen. Not addressing the point that NATO was there as an aggressor because no NATO state was at risk.

    Also, having listened to Richard Shireff, ex Dep Comd SACEUR say how the UK should step up against Russia, that UK defense forces should be hosed with more money, and that "UK society should prepare itself" or words to that effect the credibility which anyone should give to: "four dozen former senior U.S. and NATO military and political officials, including SACEURs, undersecretaries of defense, deputy assistant secretaries, members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, CENTCOM, the NATO Military Committee and national chiefs of defense" is tiny.

    Of course they are going to tell it how they want you to think it went.
    NATO was not an aggressor, if it arrived in Afghanistan in 2005 then it was invited in by the Afghani government.

    Being invited in by the government of a state does not make you an aggressor.
    It means that NATO took sides with the Afghan govt and hence conducted an aggressive war against the Taleban. Which of course it lost but that's another discussion.
    In 2005 it was a defensive war against the Taleban, not an aggressive war.
    The Afghan campaign (rightly or wrongly - as I said, certainly unsuccessfully) was about picking a side and conducting a war of extreme aggression against the other side.

    I know we have had this discussion previously when the villagers or wedding attendee victims of various NATO missile strikes should, in your opinion, have been grateful that they were obliterated in the cause of what you think was a defensive war but really, it was a war of aggression.
    Legally speaking, that's dubious.
    It was certainly an aggressive war, but that's not the same thing - though I'd agree with you that NATO's involvement was questionable.

    Iraq very probably was a war of aggression, despite the UN figleaf. since it was based on deliberate misinformation.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Sure! But Richard Holden has provided no new evidence. The two students have provided no new evidence. Cases do get reopened and re-examined but there has to be a reason to do so.

    I don't know how else to explain this to you. Policing is evidence-based. The police have investigated the complain and investigated the evidence. Making the same complaint about the same evidence doesn't create a new line of enquiry. #

    What could be done is that people could put in a complaint about the police that they have not properly carried out their duties. Which would be at least initially an internal investigation. As far as I know that hasn't been requested. Why not if the pursuit of justice is the motive and the complainants believe an actual crime has been committed?
    The only new evidence seems to be Rayner being there too. If it was legal before I do not see how this changes it.
    Which is the thing driving the Tories the most nuts. "SHE WAS THERE" "WHY DID LABOUR LIE" etc etc hasn't moved the police one bit. If as they have concluded from the primary evidence it was a campaign meeting then it doesn't matter if she was there or not.

    Its like someone demanding to know if I was tucking into a Burger King at Luton airport last Friday. I get my many trips through Luton mixed up and say I didn't. Then it comes to light that I did enjoy Whopper goodness on that occasion. "WHY DID HE LIE" is met with "I was legally there".

    Honestly don't get what Big_G and others are camping out for. Holden's letter presents no fresh evidence. The two Tiry students want to present the already reviewed evidence. Not liking someone doesn't provide a reason for the police to investigate baseless allegations.

    A good friend of mine was dragged through the ringer maliciously by their ex who made baseless allegations so serious the police had to investigate. There was no evidence - none - so it was quickly dropped. The ex then goes even more off the scale demanding this and that for the police who eventually had to threaten her with action unless she stopped wasting their time.

    Show us the evidence Big_G.
    Evidence is for Richard Holden and others to provide and they are not going to let this go until they have been satisfied which of course could conclude Starmer was in compliance of covid regulations but equally it may not
    They can whine all they want. You're absolutely right that it is for Holden et al to provide evidence - so why are you saying that his letter is sufficient for a police investigation to start?

    After I've made my initial baseless allegation against you and the police rightly dismiss it, are you ok if I write them a letter with no evidence whatsoever and they go and pull you in again for interview on something they have already decided was not a crime?
    People can and do write such letters to the police, but they are generally considered a bit bonkers. Not the type of person you would want in charge of media regulation, or anything at all really.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    OT a bit.
    But Whitley Bay seems a strange choice to be campaigning in.

    Northern town, close to a massive new investment in a battery factory creating 3,000 jobs. A good example of levelling-up for the government to showcase.
    True but the Tories have no chance at all of taking North Tyneside council.
    I think the party leaders choose campaign locations as much for the national news, as for the local candidates.

    We are deep in mid-term, with the government expecting heavy losses, so being able to point to concrete achievements in job creation outside of large cities, helps with the messaging across the country and especially the ‘red wall’ areas, who are expecting results from electing Conservatives in 2019.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    OT a bit.
    But Whitley Bay seems a strange choice to be campaigning in.

    Northern town, close to a massive new investment in a battery factory creating 3,000 jobs. A good example of levelling-up for the government to showcase.
    True but the Tories have no chance at all of taking North Tyneside council.
    And the battery factory is in Blyth, which doesn't have elections. Blyth is out of sight, hidden by St Mary's lighthouse, and very much out of mind in Whitley Bay these days. I doubt many unemployed factory workers can afford Whitley Bay.
    What's more, construction doesn't even start till next year.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    NATO has always been defensive.

    What was NATO doing running ISAF in Afghanistan from 2005 to 2021? There wasn't much chance of the Taliban crossing the Rhine.
    A good question, with a complicated answer.
    https://www.lawfareblog.com/five-myths-about-nato-and-afghanistan
    What a crappy article with many false premises and strawmen. Not addressing the point that NATO was there as an aggressor because no NATO state was at risk.

    Also, having listened to Richard Shireff, ex Dep Comd SACEUR say how the UK should step up against Russia, that UK defense forces should be hosed with more money, and that "UK society should prepare itself" or words to that effect the credibility which anyone should give to: "four dozen former senior U.S. and NATO military and political officials, including SACEURs, undersecretaries of defense, deputy assistant secretaries, members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, CENTCOM, the NATO Military Committee and national chiefs of defense" is tiny.

    Of course they are going to tell it how they want you to think it went.
    NATO was not an aggressor, if it arrived in Afghanistan in 2005 then it was invited in by the Afghani government.

    Being invited in by the government of a state does not make you an aggressor.
    It means that NATO took sides with the Afghan govt and hence conducted an aggressive war against the Taleban. Which of course it lost but that's another discussion.
    In 2005 it was a defensive war against the Taleban, not an aggressive war.
    The Afghan campaign (rightly or wrongly - as I said, certainly unsuccessfully) was about picking a side and conducting a war of extreme aggression against the other side.

    I know we have had this discussion previously when the villagers or wedding attendee victims of various NATO missile strikes should, in your opinion, have been grateful that they were obliterated in the cause of what you think was a defensive war but really, it was a war of aggression.
    Legally speaking, that's dubious.
    It was certainly an aggressive war, but that's not the same thing - though I'd agree with you that NATO's involvement was questionable.

    Iraq very probably was a war of aggression, despite the UN figleaf. since it was based on deliberate misinformation.
    Anji Hunter on the radio today saying how in govt in 2003 everyone believed the security services that the UK was genuinely under threat from WMD...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    kjh said:

    tlg86 said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    *** BETTING POST ***

    You can get 2/1 on the LibDems winning control of Woking Council. 10 of the 30 seats are up for grabs and, knowing the area as I do, I think this is a value bet. They have made steady gains in recent times and they are already the largest party. It's clear that the party machine is up and running hard for this.

    I've only seen LibDem posters up and there is a lot of anger directed towards the Conservatives. In addition the tory run minority council has squandered huge amounts of money and the council is now the third most most debt-ridden in the country.

    I think at 2/1 this is value. I'm on.

    https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/partygate-made-conservatives-grumpy-what-23812465

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    https://wokinglibdems.org.uk/en/article/2021/1421356/shock-by-election-win-paves-way-for-lib-dem-gain-in-woking

    https://www.libdems.org.uk/willforster/polling_day_in_woking

    Woking is only 26th on the LD target list for the next general election, no surprise they are targeting it
    Although it might be a target in the GE, it is not being especially done so in these local elections. There are no calls for help even from boroughs without election (eg where I am and I am only 5 miles from Woking). It is and has been for many years a very tight and actively fought borough by both the Tories an LDs and with a Tory run borough who are in a minority and with financial issues it is prime territory for LD gains to take overall control. Just a tough set of circumstances for the Tories here really.
    I expect the heaviest Tory losses on Thursday to be in anti Brexit areas which most dislike Boris.

    Woking was 56% Remain, similar councils in Remain areas of the Home Counties like Guildford and South Oxfordshire have already gone LD so I would not be surprised to see the LDs take it.

    The Tories are also likely to lose Tunbridge Wells on Thursday too partly for the same reasons as well as local factors
    I agree generally, but sometimes local factors are a bigger aspect as you point out re Tunbridge Wells. That is certainly the case with Guildford. Guildford is not LD controlled. It is in coalition with Indies and the Indies made the bigger wins (some wards by huge margins eg mine). This was because of Tory scandals and the local plan. You only have to speak to Mole Valley Tories to find out about what happened to the Guildford Tories. No love lost at the time.

    Re Tunbridge Wells - I have no knowledge although I used to live in Crowborough but lost contact now. A lovely area in which I believe you used to live also.
    Remind me, what went down in Guildford? In Woking, the attitude of the council has been "it's either tower blocks or building houses on green spaces and golf courses."

    But I don't see any tower blocks in Guildford, so I guess they went for new housing estates like this one:

    https://www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/new-homes/guildford/montague-place
    Hi @tlg86 I wondered if you would post as I know you are in Woking. I lived in the Borough from being 9 until my early 30s and can tell lots of stories, some quite funny.

    Guildford Tories implosion is a long story and pre dates the local plan. There was infighting, a councillor sent down for corruption related to this stuff, an attempted coup to try and impose an elected mayor, corruption in getting the signatures for the referendum which was eventually lost by 90%. 20,000 written objections (yes really 20,000) against the local plan, which was an utter shambles, but passed on the eve of the local election that they knew they were going to lose. Fell out with the Mole Valley Tories over all this.

    Needless to say a significant number of Tories defected to the newly formed Indies. The LDs picked up what would have been their typical targets. The Indies stood in the safe Tory wards and slaughtered them with huge margins.

    I live in a rock solid safe Tory ward. It now has 3 Indy borough councillors and a Indy county councillor.

    That really is a brief summary. What happened really isn't a fair reflection on proper Tories and I'm sure they will be back, but they have been thrown out by their own supporters.
    That doesn't sound rock solid to me.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    kjh said:

    tlg86 said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    *** BETTING POST ***

    You can get 2/1 on the LibDems winning control of Woking Council. 10 of the 30 seats are up for grabs and, knowing the area as I do, I think this is a value bet. They have made steady gains in recent times and they are already the largest party. It's clear that the party machine is up and running hard for this.

    I've only seen LibDem posters up and there is a lot of anger directed towards the Conservatives. In addition the tory run minority council has squandered huge amounts of money and the council is now the third most most debt-ridden in the country.

    I think at 2/1 this is value. I'm on.

    https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/partygate-made-conservatives-grumpy-what-23812465

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/staggering-amount-woking-borough-council-23066714

    https://wokinglibdems.org.uk/en/article/2021/1421356/shock-by-election-win-paves-way-for-lib-dem-gain-in-woking

    https://www.libdems.org.uk/willforster/polling_day_in_woking

    Woking is only 26th on the LD target list for the next general election, no surprise they are targeting it
    Although it might be a target in the GE, it is not being especially done so in these local elections. There are no calls for help even from boroughs without election (eg where I am and I am only 5 miles from Woking). It is and has been for many years a very tight and actively fought borough by both the Tories an LDs and with a Tory run borough who are in a minority and with financial issues it is prime territory for LD gains to take overall control. Just a tough set of circumstances for the Tories here really.
    I expect the heaviest Tory losses on Thursday to be in anti Brexit areas which most dislike Boris.

    Woking was 56% Remain, similar councils in Remain areas of the Home Counties like Guildford and South Oxfordshire have already gone LD so I would not be surprised to see the LDs take it.

    The Tories are also likely to lose Tunbridge Wells on Thursday too partly for the same reasons as well as local factors
    I agree generally, but sometimes local factors are a bigger aspect as you point out re Tunbridge Wells. That is certainly the case with Guildford. Guildford is not LD controlled. It is in coalition with Indies and the Indies made the bigger wins (some wards by huge margins eg mine). This was because of Tory scandals and the local plan. You only have to speak to Mole Valley Tories to find out about what happened to the Guildford Tories. No love lost at the time.

    Re Tunbridge Wells - I have no knowledge although I used to live in Crowborough but lost contact now. A lovely area in which I believe you used to live also.
    Remind me, what went down in Guildford? In Woking, the attitude of the council has been "it's either tower blocks or building houses on green spaces and golf courses."

    But I don't see any tower blocks in Guildford, so I guess they went for new housing estates like this one:

    https://www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/new-homes/guildford/montague-place
    Hi @tlg86 I wondered if you would post as I know you are in Woking. I lived in the Borough from being 9 until my early 30s and can tell lots of stories, some quite funny.

    Guildford Tories implosion is a long story and pre dates the local plan. There was infighting, a councillor sent down for corruption related to this stuff, an attempted coup to try and impose an elected mayor, corruption in getting the signatures for the referendum which was eventually lost by 90%. 20,000 written objections (yes really 20,000) against the local plan, which was an utter shambles, but passed on the eve of the local election that they knew they were going to lose. Fell out with the Mole Valley Tories over all this.

    Needless to say a significant number of Tories defected to the newly formed Indies. The LDs picked up what would have been their typical targets. The Indies stood in the safe Tory wards and slaughtered them with huge margins.

    I live in a rock solid safe Tory ward. It now has 3 Indy borough councillors and a Indy county councillor.

    That really is a brief summary. What happened really isn't a fair reflection on proper Tories and I'm sure they will be back, but they have been thrown out by their own supporters.
    But is it simply nimbyism that did for the Tories? That is, we don't want tower blocks and we don't want new housing estates either.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 930
    Yes, one thought. Over the past two weeksa this country appears to have the worst death rate from COVID of anywhere in the world!
    By not publicising daily figures, by not allowing free testing, by simply keeping quiet the government has seemingly convinced many people that the issue is not a major problem any more. Whereas we are not just living with COVID we are dying from it as well.
    I have had the four jabs but still wear a mask in enclosed places, even the Gym, I am usually the only one. Last week two regulars went down with it!!!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo should have hidden in a fridge again this morning

    He is to address the Ukraine Parliament this morning, the first Western leader to do so, so not hiding in a fridge
    I'm with you BigG.

    Boris must go ..then again he is the greatest Wartime Prime Minister since Churchill, and he didn't really break any Covid rules, and the Gray report must be canned because it was written by a Labour shill, and Starmer broke loads of rules whilst Boris was ambushed by a cake. Phew!
    Boris must go but he is recognised by Ukraine and their President for the support they have received in their fight against the war criminal that is Putin

    Boris broke the covid rules and there is no dispute about that

    Starmer may or may not have broken covid rules but they lied about Rayners's attendance and he looks uncomfortable when being asked questions by journalists. The media will no doubt only be satisfied when he agrees to a review and interview by Durham Police but as one voter said this morning, 'they are all the same' and that is a fairly widespread view
    SKS didn't break the covid rules. And is being wrong about one person attending one of very many meetings receding into memory, in a busy day, a crime?

    I think you ought to report yourself to the police for not ebing able to tell us instantly what size of spanner the lady on Mr Parrish's tractor movie was holding.
    Starmer saying he didn't break the covid regulations is being challenged by Richard Holden, MP, the mail and others including 2 students who want the police to review the video they took

    There is nothing unreasonable about questioning the veracity of those events
    Sure! But Richard Holden has provided no new evidence. The two students have provided no new evidence. Cases do get reopened and re-examined but there has to be a reason to do so.

    I don't know how else to explain this to you. Policing is evidence-based. The police have investigated the complain and investigated the evidence. Making the same complaint about the same evidence doesn't create a new line of enquiry. #

    What could be done is that people could put in a complaint about the police that they have not properly carried out their duties. Which would be at least initially an internal investigation. As far as I know that hasn't been requested. Why not if the pursuit of justice is the motive and the complainants believe an actual crime has been committed?
    The only new evidence seems to be Rayner being there too. If it was legal before I do not see how this changes it.
    Which is the thing driving the Tories the most nuts. "SHE WAS THERE" "WHY DID LABOUR LIE" etc etc hasn't moved the police one bit. If as they have concluded from the primary evidence it was a campaign meeting then it doesn't matter if she was there or not.

    Its like someone demanding to know if I was tucking into a Burger King at Luton airport last Friday. I get my many trips through Luton mixed up and say I didn't. Then it comes to light that I did enjoy Whopper goodness on that occasion. "WHY DID HE LIE" is met with "I was legally there".

    Honestly don't get what Big_G and others are camping out for. Holden's letter presents no fresh evidence. The two Tiry students want to present the already reviewed evidence. Not liking someone doesn't provide a reason for the police to investigate baseless allegations.

    A good friend of mine was dragged through the ringer maliciously by their ex who made baseless allegations so serious the police had to investigate. There was no evidence - none - so it was quickly dropped. The ex then goes even more off the scale demanding this and that for the police who eventually had to threaten her with action unless she stopped wasting their time.

    Show us the evidence Big_G.
    Evidence is for Richard Holden and others to provide and they are not going to let this go until they have been satisfied which of course could conclude Starmer was in compliance of covid regulations but equally it may not
    They can whine all they want. You're absolutely right that it is for Holden et al to provide evidence - so why are you saying that his letter is sufficient for a police investigation to start?

    After I've made my initial baseless allegation against you and the police rightly dismiss it, are you ok if I write them a letter with no evidence whatsoever and they go and pull you in again for interview on something they have already decided was not a crime?
    Durham Police said they will respond to Holdens letter and that response will determine whether or not the matter concludes and what further steps may be taken by Holden and other conservative mps
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    edited May 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Russia is now picking a fight with Israel.

    https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1521412528810643456

    image

    One more country in the Middle East that’s no longer going to be neutral in this conflict.

    (Waits for Lavrov to re-ignite the tensions with the OPEC Gulf States over oil production).
    Israel are trying to stay neutral because they don't want Russia to kick the furniture over in Syria to the detriment of Israel.

    There's also a lot of Israeli avionics in the Su-30M (and probably many other things) so they are trying to take the long view on the strategic value of the Israel-Russia relationship but Lavrov's making it difficult to sell neutrality in Jerusalem.
  • Anyway Afghanistan was a defensive war since they started it with 9/11, which is the only time in NATO's entire history that Article 5 has been invoked.

    So it'd be entirely appropriate for NATO to be involved, since it all began with an attack on a NATO state which led to Article 5 being invoked.
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