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The Tiverton & Honiton LDs start as odds on favourite – politicalbetting.com

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  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A computer created this non-existent photo of a non-existent muddy dog



    Now, imagine the chaos when this AI is let loose on human faces and bodies. Because it will happen, despite all the precautions taken. This tech is too powerful to be stopped

    So you could type in the prompt:

    “A realistic photo of Keir Starmer gorging on caviar and cocaine in a Labour Party office, during lockdown”

    Or

    “A realistic photo of a naked Boris Johnson being masturbated in the Cabinet Office by three naked ballet dancers on a tractor”

    Or much much worse

    This is going to cause unbelievable chaos. Truth is over. Art is imperilled

    You've been able to mock up such images with software like Photoshop for decades. Why no such chaos hitherto?
    No. This is in a different universe to Photoshop. You don’t understand
    What is unique about Dalle is that it creates from words. But don't underestimate the similarities at the image processing level between the two. When you do a "smart erase" in Photoshop, and it "invents" what you see behind the image you remove, it's using a very similar neutral net.
    People invest extra magic in the image generation which, as you say, is well worn (e.g. we've been using "this face does not exist" tech for quite a while for persona generation)

    And the text interpretation is also not that sophisticated (and look what a bad job it does until a human curates its output...)

    Yes, it has a powerful impact, but *only* when its workings are not well understood, and when it is well curated by humans.
    On the curation, that's very true. We don't get to see the 90% of generated stuff that isn't interesting.
    Yes we do. Dig a little deeper. Check this illuminating thread

    “DALL-E is crazy impressive.

    But I’m getting a feel for what it can and can’t do, and there are some quite noticeable limitations you won’t see on the curated publicised examples (including my own).

    So, 8 limitations of DALL-E, a thread:

    (also, have a #dalle koala doing magic)”

    https://twitter.com/benjamin_hilton/status/1520032772072607747?s=21&t=l9F7HfEBemfJY_XgjSfkEQ

    It is clearly far from perfect. As are human artists. However some of these limitations are built-in - anything to do with human faces, body parts, etc

    Imagine DALL-E 3 or 4 with these shackles removed…
    I like all the fails, especially the shopping trolleys and the mother and child but not so much the kitten. Now that we know it can produce indistinguishable-from-human art why limit it to that?

    BTW a prediction, the likes of banksy and tracey Emin will when they get access to it produce art which will sell for squillions where their only input is the instruction.
    Also, remember, this is "indistinguishable from human once it has been displayed on a flat 2d digital display".

    Go and look at any of this art in the flesh and it becomes a thousand times more subtle, textured, and interesting as the light reflects of brush strokes as you move around it.
    3D printing will solve that
    Sure, although we need considerable investment to deposit the right kinds of pigments in the right way.

    While we are in the vague area, there's a great digital tech for jewelers - basically a hammer that you wield physically, and it deforms a digital model. So you can get a genuinely unique, hand-crafted original work and mass produce zillions of them, all as high quality as the original, which, in a sense, each one is.

    This is the flip side of the "described and curated but not 'crafted'" - it's "crafted but there is no 'original' to own".
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    You keep forgetting about Corbyn's 2019 performance: 11,654 (19.5%) compared to LDs' 8,807 (14.8%).
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited May 2022

    Speaking of Louisiana and New Orleans, here's a fact that probably hasn't reached the Guardian. After the Katrina hurricane, Louisiana elected a former Bush official, governor: Bobby Jindal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobby_Jindal

    Jindal is not an obvious fit for Louisiana. But the voters liked his performance, and he was re-elected in a landslide.

    If Leon has any curiosity about politics, he might ask some of the folks there what they think about Jindal.

    (The only modern governor I can think of who is equally improbable is Hawaii's Linda Lingle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linda_Lingle
    A twice-divorced Jewish Republican born in St. Louis, and educated in California.)

    Before he was elected governor AND before serving as Bush the Elder's assistant sec. for Health and Human Services, H Bobby Jindal was the wiz-kid of state government - which unlike most southern states is highly centralized in Louisiana - which gave him a huge leg up with political establishment & local media.

    And his Indian (as in subcontinent) heritage meant he was a Republican of Color, which both politicos and base GOPers (in more ways than one some of them) could appreciate as smart strategy.

    He narrowly lost his first run for governor in 2004, but was elected to US House. At next gubernatorial election in 2007 Jindal was elected by majority in first vote (no runoff). His first term went reasonably well, and he was re-elected with 2/3 of vote in 2011.

    HOWEVER, Jindal's 2nd term was less successful than his first, and his support in Louisiana started dropping like a rock.

    PLUS he'd gotten a bad case of Potomoc fever, despite his notoriously less-than-impressive televised GOP response to President Obama's first State of the Union message. Going as far to explore running for POTUS for 2016, but dropped out in 2015.

    In Louisiana Bobbie Jindal is considered a busted flush.

    Edit - Jindal's story is similar to that of Nikki Haley in South Carolina. IMHO she's much more impressive than BJ (UK and La).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,255

    Another question which I posed yesterday. How do we break the naval blockade on Odessa?

    Essentially it can't be done until the war is over.

    You might, in theory, be able to supply Ukraine with sufficient super anti-ship missiles that they can sink all the Russian warships in the Black Sea, but there would still be ship mines to contend with, and Ukraine has no minesweepers.
    One of the failures of the original Dardanelles campaign in WWI was the minesweepers not pushing forward under fire.

    People have been arguing about the rights and wrongs of that for a 100 years…

    What happens if a NATO ship starts minesweeping in international waters?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Another image from dall-e

    The prompt was

    “A lion wearing a hoodie writing code inside of a shipping container”

    The guy who framed the prompt got ten images in ten seconds. This is one of them




    That is better than anything 99.99% of humans could achieve. It is eminently publishable. You might want to let a picture editor polish it for a minute or two, otherwise it’s good to go

    Also: note that dall-e has given the lion an “electronic tail” in the form of a USB cable. That’s not in the prompt. It came from dall-e’s subconscious. It is a very human touch. The touch of a fine and experienced artist

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    Another question which I posed yesterday. How do we break the naval blockade on Odessa?

    Essentially it can't be done until the war is over.

    You might, in theory, be able to supply Ukraine with sufficient super anti-ship missiles that they can sink all the Russian warships in the Black Sea, but there would still be ship mines to contend with, and Ukraine has no minesweepers.
    One of the failures of the original Dardanelles campaign in WWI was the minesweepers not pushing forward under fire.

    People have been arguing about the rights and wrongs of that for a 100 years…

    What happens if a NATO ship starts minesweeping in international waters?
    Is the Black Sea considered 'international waters?' Serious question because I don't know.

    I also assume only Turkey and Romania could send minesweepers to help give restrictions on shipping through the Bosporus in wartime.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,661

    On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    You keep forgetting about Corbyn's 2019 performance: 11,654 (19.5%) compared to LDs' 8,807 (14.8%).
    SKS appears likely to do worse than 2017 and 2019 in this By Election

    SKS fans please explain
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,255
    edited May 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Another question which I posed yesterday. How do we break the naval blockade on Odessa?

    Essentially it can't be done until the war is over.

    You might, in theory, be able to supply Ukraine with sufficient super anti-ship missiles that they can sink all the Russian warships in the Black Sea, but there would still be ship mines to contend with, and Ukraine has no minesweepers.
    One of the failures of the original Dardanelles campaign in WWI was the minesweepers not pushing forward under fire.

    People have been arguing about the rights and wrongs of that for a 100 years…

    What happens if a NATO ship starts minesweeping in international waters?
    Is the Black Sea considered 'international waters?' Serious question because I don't know.

    I also assume only Turkey and Romania could send minesweepers to help give restrictions on shipping through the Bosporus in wartime.
    IIRC it is international waters but under the convention (forget the name) that everyone signed up to in the 20s, there is a time limit for warships belonging to states not bordering the Black Sea. Something like 3 weeks sticks in my mind.

    So in theory a Danish minesweeper (say) could rock up and do some sweeping - laying mines in international waters means they are fair game for neutrals to get rid of (again IIRC)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    A very old-school things to do in New Orleans

    Go by the banks of Lake Pontchartrain and seek out the Lakeview restaurant, somewhat misnamed because you can NOT see the Lake, but instead are looking at the backside of the Levee; thing to get here is either the Shrimp Boat, with is loaf of supermarket white (not White) bread hollowed out, filled with breaded shrimp and . . . wait for it . . . deep fried.

    Alternatively, get the Oyster Boat or (my fav) the Half-&-Half Boat.

    Don't know if this joint is still in existence - sure hope so!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    You keep forgetting about Corbyn's 2019 performance: 11,654 (19.5%) compared to LDs' 8,807 (14.8%).
    SKS appears likely to do worse than 2017 and 2019 in this By Election

    SKS fans please explain
    Stick to Keir’s inability to “cut through” nationally. There was an interesting profile of him in Jacobin the other day.

    Your by-election whingeing convinces nobody.
  • On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    SKS slipping to 3rd says all there is to say about his Leadership.

    His whole strategy is based on attracting disaffected Tories should be loads of those at this By Election

    How was Corbyn's by-election record, out of interest?

    I guess the Witney by-election in 2016 is an okay (albeit not perfect by any means) comparison. Tories started on around 60%, Labour a clear but distant second on about 20%, Lib Dems some way behind that. In the end, it doesn't really count as a near miss for the Lib Dems, but a very decent second.

    Whilst I tend to agree with the view that Labour's ground game is poor, it's pretty blindingly obvious that the Lib Dems will challenge here and Labour won't, notwithstanding that Labour were (a distant) second last time. They have a tradition in the area (albeit they have taken a big hit since 2010), have a good Council base, and offer a fairly soft protest option (if we're honest) for cheesed off Tories. That's not new - it's been true under many Labour leaders, including the most recent.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    Perhaps the alternative could be, we don't send them to Rwanda. Instead, we put them all on a plane, and get Priti Patel to go on as well. We then tell them that she will treat them exactly as she treats her civil servants until they agree to go back to their home country.

    I'm willing to bet in 10 minutes they'd be begging to be sent back to whatever war torn hell hole they came from...
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    ydoethur said:

    On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    You keep forgetting about Corbyn's 2019 performance: 11,654 (19.5%) compared to LDs' 8,807 (14.8%).
    SKS appears likely to do worse than 2017 and 2019 in this By Election

    SKS fans please explain
    SKS understands it is slightly better for progressive politics if a Liberal Democrat wins a seat than for Labour to be a gallant second place to the Tories?
    Far too sophisticated an argument. Politics has to be an eternal war in a grimdark future.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    SKS slipping to 3rd says all there is to say about his Leadership.

    His whole strategy is based on attracting disaffected Tories should be loads of those at this By Election

    How was Corbyn's by-election record, out of interest?

    I guess the Witney by-election in 2016 is an okay (albeit not perfect by any means) comparison. Tories started on around 60%, Labour a clear but distant second on about 20%, Lib Dems some way behind that. In the end, it doesn't really count as a near miss for the Lib Dems, but a very decent second.

    Whilst I tend to agree with the view that Labour's ground game is poor, it's pretty blindingly obvious that the Lib Dems will challenge here and Labour won't, notwithstanding that Labour were (a distant) second last time. They have a tradition in the area (albeit they have taken a big hit since 2010), have a good Council base, and offer a fairly soft protest option (if we're honest) for cheesed off Tories. That's not new - it's been true under many Labour leaders, including the most recent.
    He lost Copeland. Very much Labour's answer to North Shropshire, and if he'd had even half a brain he'd have taken the hint and resigned.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Linda Lingle is indeed an interesting politico, reflective of several things re: Hawaii
    > highly multicultural social and political environment
    > being "carpetbagger" NOT a bar
    > divided Democratic majority party
    > Republican moderation out of desperation

    Would be interested in my near-neighbor Jim M's take on above? And am trying to think of some more reasonably recent NOT your standard governor governors . . .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    Incidentally, how on earth would Tory backbenchers justify continuing to keep Johnson as leader after losing Oswestry, Wakefield (surely) and Tiverton (probably)? I mean, given the diversity of electorates that would represent at that point you have to wonder just what seats they can consider safe.

    I'm sure the spineless cretins of the current PCP will find a way to justify it, but I'm baffled as to what it could be.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,255
    mwadams said:

    ydoethur said:

    On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    You keep forgetting about Corbyn's 2019 performance: 11,654 (19.5%) compared to LDs' 8,807 (14.8%).
    SKS appears likely to do worse than 2017 and 2019 in this By Election

    SKS fans please explain
    SKS understands it is slightly better for progressive politics if a Liberal Democrat wins a seat than for Labour to be a gallant second place to the Tories?
    Far too sophisticated an argument. Politics has to be an eternal war in a grimdark future.
    The Emperor Protects!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,255
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, how on earth would Tory backbenchers justify continuing to keep Johnson as leader after losing Oswestry, Wakefield (surely) and Tiverton (probably)? I mean, given the diversity of electorates that would represent at that point you have to wonder just what seats they can consider safe.

    I'm sure the spineless cretins of the current PCP will find a way to justify it, but I'm baffled as to what it could be.

    It’s a variation on the Underpants Gnomes business plan.

    1) collect underpants
    2) ?
    3) not guilty

    I think we have agreed on the ideal solution, though.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,218
    edited May 2022

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    Ignoring the rights or wrongs, that's not what the Rwandans seem to have signed up to.

    It's more that the UK sends them a list on the refugee equivalent of Tinder, and they can swipe left or right at will. They can say no to any one at any point. After all, they are poorer and more crowded than the UK, why should they take all our refugees willy-nilly?

    Source:

    8. How Priti Patel and Vincent Biruta's trade in human beings is to work.

    - UK government to offer Rwanda lists of people.
    - Rwanda can say yes or no to any of those people offered to it by UK.
    - But the people transported to Rwanda (for cash) can not say yes or no to Rwanda

    https://t.co/Jt8jxwcVQK

    (Link to government document included.)

    The scheme capacity is about 1% of the current flow across the Channel. That will fill up well before deterrence kicks in.

    Giant fans all along the South Coast, to create a continuous NW wind in the Channel, that might work...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,661

    On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    You keep forgetting about Corbyn's 2019 performance: 11,654 (19.5%) compared to LDs' 8,807 (14.8%).
    SKS appears likely to do worse than 2017 and 2019 in this By Election

    SKS fans please explain
    Stick to Keir’s inability to “cut through” nationally.

    Your by-election whingeing convinces nobody.
    A man whose whole strategy is based on attracting disaffected Tories looks to be convincing nobody either
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593

    mwadams said:

    ydoethur said:

    On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    You keep forgetting about Corbyn's 2019 performance: 11,654 (19.5%) compared to LDs' 8,807 (14.8%).
    SKS appears likely to do worse than 2017 and 2019 in this By Election

    SKS fans please explain
    SKS understands it is slightly better for progressive politics if a Liberal Democrat wins a seat than for Labour to be a gallant second place to the Tories?
    Far too sophisticated an argument. Politics has to be an eternal war in a grimdark future.
    The Emperor Protects!
    Sister, fetch the melta.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    Seems like growing confirmation that Gerasimov was wounded and has been evacuated.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593

    On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    You keep forgetting about Corbyn's 2019 performance: 11,654 (19.5%) compared to LDs' 8,807 (14.8%).
    SKS appears likely to do worse than 2017 and 2019 in this By Election

    SKS fans please explain
    Stick to Keir’s inability to “cut through” nationally.

    Your by-election whingeing convinces nobody.
    A man whose whole strategy is based on attracting disaffected Tories looks to be convincing nobody either
    That's not the strategy.

    The strategy is that disaffected Tories stay home. Waverers vote Labour where Labour are winning, LD in the 20-30 seats where LDs are winning, and every Labour voter comes out to kick the Tories in the goolies.

    And to hope against hope that they pick up a few seats in Scotland, and the Tories lose a couple (<= no chance really)

    Which is what did for the Tories in 1997.

    Whether it does so next time out is very much in the balance.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,218
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, how on earth would Tory backbenchers justify continuing to keep Johnson as leader after losing Oswestry, Wakefield (surely) and Tiverton (probably)? I mean, given the diversity of electorates that would represent at that point you have to wonder just what seats they can consider safe.

    I'm sure the spineless cretins of the current PCP will find a way to justify it, but I'm baffled as to what it could be.

    "Disappointing, but typical, mid-term results, long-term plan..."

    Balls, of course, but easy to say. And anyway- BoJo has ensured that there's nobody who could take over and poll better.

    TMay should have strapped Johnson to a rocket and fired him into the heart of the Sun while she had the chance.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    Cicero said:

    Seems like growing confirmation that Gerasimov was wounded and has been evacuated.

    Will the last Russian general please turn out the lights?

    This is an even worse attrition rate than the British army had among its senior officers in the opening days of World War I, and at least some of those were from natural causes!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377

    On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    You keep forgetting about Corbyn's 2019 performance: 11,654 (19.5%) compared to LDs' 8,807 (14.8%).
    SKS appears likely to do worse than 2017 and 2019 in this By Election

    SKS fans please explain
    Stick to Keir’s inability to “cut through” nationally.

    Your by-election whingeing convinces nobody.
    A man whose whole strategy is based on attracting disaffected Tories looks to be convincing nobody either
    Your strand of Labour puritanism - we don't want disaffected Tories voting for us - would keep us out of power for ever. But maybe that's what you want. Some of us lefties want power though - and that means compromising with some voters and persuading others. Nothing new here - ask Atlee, Wilson, Blair....
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Cicero said:

    Seems like growing confirmation that Gerasimov was wounded and has been evacuated.

    I had read Western intelligence estimated that at the start of the invasion, there were circa 20 Russian generals dispatched to Ukraine. How many are there in total? Ukraine claims 10 now KIA, excluding the above character.
  • The LDs should be narrow favourites I think and they should be able to completely flood the constituency with activists from neighbouring Somerset and West Dorset.

    LD 45%
    Con 40%
    Lab 8%
    Other 7%

    ~25% swing
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    Then you need to propose an alternative. I’ve not seen anything convincing beyond virtue signalling and vague hand waving, which amount to: let them all come

    I saw a prediction just now that 60-70,000 might arrive this way, this year. If that is anywhere near correct it is insupportable. The numbers are tripling every year

    If we don’t find a solution now this will end with the Navy shooting at the boats to deter them, and many many drownings. No nation can allow a total loss of control of its borders
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,661
    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    ydoethur said:

    On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    You keep forgetting about Corbyn's 2019 performance: 11,654 (19.5%) compared to LDs' 8,807 (14.8%).
    SKS appears likely to do worse than 2017 and 2019 in this By Election

    SKS fans please explain
    SKS understands it is slightly better for progressive politics if a Liberal Democrat wins a seat than for Labour to be a gallant second place to the Tories?
    Far too sophisticated an argument. Politics has to be an eternal war in a grimdark future.
    The Emperor Protects!
    Sister, fetch the melta.
    So if LDs finish a gallant 2nd and Lab a distant 3rd as is likely?

    I would have thought winning Elections where you were the main opposition to the Tories even under voter repellent Corbyn was the whole point of a balls out attract disaffected Tories by telling Socialists to Fuck Off strategy.


    Best chance of a LD win is for Lab not to stand a all like they are doing in over 100 extra seats next Thursday compared to 2018


    Far too sophisticated i expect
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    One of his ancestors. J Jeremy Bentham, used to be one of the people who ran the Dr Who Appreciation Society in the early eighties. A little pompous but pleasant.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    One of his ancestors. J Jeremy Bentham, used to be one of the people who ran the Dr Who Appreciation Society in the early eighties. A little pompous but pleasant.
    A time lord, then.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    mwadams said:

    On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    You keep forgetting about Corbyn's 2019 performance: 11,654 (19.5%) compared to LDs' 8,807 (14.8%).
    SKS appears likely to do worse than 2017 and 2019 in this By Election

    SKS fans please explain
    Stick to Keir’s inability to “cut through” nationally.

    Your by-election whingeing convinces nobody.
    A man whose whole strategy is based on attracting disaffected Tories looks to be convincing nobody either
    That's not the strategy.

    The strategy is that disaffected Tories stay home. Waverers vote Labour where Labour are winning, LD in the 20-30 seats where LDs are winning, and every Labour voter comes out to kick the Tories in the goolies.

    And to hope against hope that they pick up a few seats in Scotland, and the Tories lose a couple (less than = no chance really)

    Which is what did for the Tories in 1997.

    Whether it does so next time out is very much in the balance.
    Pretty perfect summation of the strategy.
    @bigjohnowls doesn’t have a “Danny”.

    I am not as pessimistic as you about Labour’s chances in Scotland.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,255
    ydoethur said:

    Cicero said:

    Seems like growing confirmation that Gerasimov was wounded and has been evacuated.

    Will the last Russian general please turn out the lights?

    This is an even worse attrition rate than the British army had among its senior officers in the opening days of World War I, and at least some of those were from natural causes!
    Red Storm rising again - in Tom Clancy’s version of WWIII, triangulation of radio emissions made Russian headquarters pretty fatal to the command staff.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593

    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    ydoethur said:

    On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    You keep forgetting about Corbyn's 2019 performance: 11,654 (19.5%) compared to LDs' 8,807 (14.8%).
    SKS appears likely to do worse than 2017 and 2019 in this By Election

    SKS fans please explain
    SKS understands it is slightly better for progressive politics if a Liberal Democrat wins a seat than for Labour to be a gallant second place to the Tories?
    Far too sophisticated an argument. Politics has to be an eternal war in a grimdark future.
    The Emperor Protects!
    Sister, fetch the melta.
    So if LDs finish a gallant 2nd and Lab a distant 3rd as is likely?

    I would have thought winning Elections where you were the main opposition to the Tories even under voter repellent Corbyn was the whole point of a balls out attract disaffected Tories by telling Socialists to Fuck Off strategy.


    Best chance of a LD win is for Lab not to stand a all like they are doing in over 100 extra seats next Thursday compared to 2018


    Far too sophisticated i expect
    Then as long as that was what was being briefed then no-one cares.

    I have no particular torch for Labour. I don't much like the LDs, but as an ex-Tory I want to see this lot kicked in the goolies very hard.

    I'd vote LD in this by-election, and not see Labour coming 3rd as any kind of commentary on SKS.

    I don't expect the LDs to win, either. But it will be interesting to see how big, and well concentrated, the "anyone but the Tories" vote is.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249

    ydoethur said:

    Another question which I posed yesterday. How do we break the naval blockade on Odessa?

    Essentially it can't be done until the war is over.

    You might, in theory, be able to supply Ukraine with sufficient super anti-ship missiles that they can sink all the Russian warships in the Black Sea, but there would still be ship mines to contend with, and Ukraine has no minesweepers.
    One of the failures of the original Dardanelles campaign in WWI was the minesweepers not pushing forward under fire.

    People have been arguing about the rights and wrongs of that for a 100 years…

    What happens if a NATO ship starts minesweeping in international waters?
    Is the Black Sea considered 'international waters?' Serious question because I don't know.

    I also assume only Turkey and Romania could send minesweepers to help give restrictions on shipping through the Bosporus in wartime.
    IIRC it is international waters but under the convention (forget the name) that everyone signed up to in the 20s, there is a time limit for warships belonging to states not bordering the Black Sea. Something like 3 weeks sticks in my mind.

    So in theory a Danish minesweeper (say) could rock up and do some sweeping - laying mines in international waters means they are fair game for neutrals to get rid of (again IIRC)
    Montreaux Convention

    Turkish waters but they can’t bar passage to shipping except in time of war when they can ban ships that don’t have a registered home port in the Black Sea
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A computer created this non-existent photo of a non-existent muddy dog



    Now, imagine the chaos when this AI is let loose on human faces and bodies. Because it will happen, despite all the precautions taken. This tech is too powerful to be stopped

    So you could type in the prompt:

    “A realistic photo of Keir Starmer gorging on caviar and cocaine in a Labour Party office, during lockdown”

    Or

    “A realistic photo of a naked Boris Johnson being masturbated in the Cabinet Office by three naked ballet dancers on a tractor”

    Or much much worse

    This is going to cause unbelievable chaos. Truth is over. Art is imperilled

    You've been able to mock up such images with software like Photoshop for decades. Why no such chaos hitherto?
    No. This is in a different universe to Photoshop. You don’t understand
    What is unique about Dalle is that it creates from words. But don't underestimate the similarities at the image processing level between the two. When you do a "smart erase" in Photoshop, and it "invents" what you see behind the image you remove, it's using a very similar neutral net.
    People invest extra magic in the image generation which, as you say, is well worn (e.g. we've been using "this face does not exist" tech for quite a while for persona generation)

    And the text interpretation is also not that sophisticated (and look what a bad job it does until a human curates its output...)

    Yes, it has a powerful impact, but *only* when its workings are not well understood, and when it is well curated by humans.
    On the curation, that's very true. We don't get to see the 90% of generated stuff that isn't interesting.
    Yes we do. Dig a little deeper. Check this illuminating thread

    “DALL-E is crazy impressive.

    But I’m getting a feel for what it can and can’t do, and there are some quite noticeable limitations you won’t see on the curated publicised examples (including my own).

    So, 8 limitations of DALL-E, a thread:

    (also, have a #dalle koala doing magic)”

    https://twitter.com/benjamin_hilton/status/1520032772072607747?s=21&t=l9F7HfEBemfJY_XgjSfkEQ

    It is clearly far from perfect. As are human artists. However some of these limitations are built-in - anything to do with human faces, body parts, etc

    Imagine DALL-E 3 or 4 with these shackles removed…
    I like all the fails, especially the shopping trolleys and the mother and child but not so much the kitten. Now that we know it can produce indistinguishable-from-human art why limit it to that?

    BTW a prediction, the likes of banksy and tracey Emin will when they get access to it produce art which will sell for squillions where their only input is the instruction.
    Also, remember, this is "indistinguishable from human once it has been displayed on a flat 2d digital display".

    Go and look at any of this art in the flesh and it becomes a thousand times more subtle, textured, and interesting as the light reflects of brush strokes as you move around it.
    3D printing will solve that
    Sure, although we need considerable investment to deposit the right kinds of pigments in the right way.

    While we are in the vague area, there's a great digital tech for jewelers - basically a hammer that you wield physically, and it deforms a digital model. So you can get a genuinely unique, hand-crafted original work and mass produce zillions of them, all as high quality as the original, which, in a sense, each one is.

    This is the flip side of the "described and curated but not 'crafted'" - it's "crafted but there is no 'original' to own".
    I have seen the future, and it works. I need a transparent plastic gum guard thingy to stop me grinding my teeth away to nothing in my sleep, which I imagine in former times you'd make by biting an impression into a lump of plasticine and using that as a mould. These days, the dentist scanned my teeth with a little camera and send the results to a 3D printer in the USA, and the fit is just miraculous.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    Don’t give Patel ideas!
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    Perhaps the alternative could be, we don't send them to Rwanda. Instead, we put them all on a plane, and get Priti Patel to go on as well. We then tell them that she will treat them exactly as she treats her civil servants until they agree to go back to their home country.

    I'm willing to bet in 10 minutes they'd be begging to be sent back to whatever war torn hell hole they came from...
    Why not process them here. Give them indefinite leave to remain. Let them work and see them thrive and help grow our sluggish economy.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    You already know the answers to all that. Their treatment in Rwanda will be basic, but in accordance with international norms, and the fairly substantial fees that the UK Government is paying for their care. The disincentive represented by relocation to Rwanda isn't cruelty, its the massive set back it represents to the ambition of living in the UK. It's worse than not leaving home. Torturing anyone to death would be cruel and inhumane.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    You already know the answers to all that. Their treatment in Rwanda will be basic, but in accordance with international norms, and the fairly substantial fees that the UK Government is paying for their care. The disincentive represented by relocation to Rwanda isn't cruelty, its the massive set back it represents to the ambition of living in the UK. It's worse than not leaving home. Torturing anyone to death would be cruel and inhumane.
    You don't really know Africa do you?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    Perhaps the alternative could be, we don't send them to Rwanda. Instead, we put them all on a plane, and get Priti Patel to go on as well. We then tell them that she will treat them exactly as she treats her civil servants until they agree to go back to their home country.

    I'm willing to bet in 10 minutes they'd be begging to be sent back to whatever war torn hell hole they came from...
    Why not process them here. Give them indefinite leave to remain. Let them work and see them thrive and help grow our sluggish economy.
    I'm thinking of alternatives that would appeal to Daily Mail readers, these being the only alternatives A Johnson would consider.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    It's rather predictable that the LDs will win the Tiverton by-election by about 5,000 votes and then lose it back to the Tories at the GE. Anything other than that scenario would be interesting.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    IshmaelZ said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    One of his ancestors. J Jeremy Bentham, used to be one of the people who ran the Dr Who Appreciation Society in the early eighties. A little pompous but pleasant.
    A time lord, then.
    Probably Pertwee, but it could be many of them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    Perhaps the alternative could be, we don't send them to Rwanda. Instead, we put them all on a plane, and get Priti Patel to go on as well. We then tell them that she will treat them exactly as she treats her civil servants until they agree to go back to their home country.

    I'm willing to bet in 10 minutes they'd be begging to be sent back to whatever war torn hell hole they came from...
    Why not process them here. Give them indefinite leave to remain. Let them work and see them thrive and help grow our sluggish economy.
    At least you’re honest. Insane but honest. Let them all come
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    IshmaelZ said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A computer created this non-existent photo of a non-existent muddy dog



    Now, imagine the chaos when this AI is let loose on human faces and bodies. Because it will happen, despite all the precautions taken. This tech is too powerful to be stopped

    So you could type in the prompt:

    “A realistic photo of Keir Starmer gorging on caviar and cocaine in a Labour Party office, during lockdown”

    Or

    “A realistic photo of a naked Boris Johnson being masturbated in the Cabinet Office by three naked ballet dancers on a tractor”

    Or much much worse

    This is going to cause unbelievable chaos. Truth is over. Art is imperilled

    You've been able to mock up such images with software like Photoshop for decades. Why no such chaos hitherto?
    No. This is in a different universe to Photoshop. You don’t understand
    What is unique about Dalle is that it creates from words. But don't underestimate the similarities at the image processing level between the two. When you do a "smart erase" in Photoshop, and it "invents" what you see behind the image you remove, it's using a very similar neutral net.
    People invest extra magic in the image generation which, as you say, is well worn (e.g. we've been using "this face does not exist" tech for quite a while for persona generation)

    And the text interpretation is also not that sophisticated (and look what a bad job it does until a human curates its output...)

    Yes, it has a powerful impact, but *only* when its workings are not well understood, and when it is well curated by humans.
    On the curation, that's very true. We don't get to see the 90% of generated stuff that isn't interesting.
    Yes we do. Dig a little deeper. Check this illuminating thread

    “DALL-E is crazy impressive.

    But I’m getting a feel for what it can and can’t do, and there are some quite noticeable limitations you won’t see on the curated publicised examples (including my own).

    So, 8 limitations of DALL-E, a thread:

    (also, have a #dalle koala doing magic)”

    https://twitter.com/benjamin_hilton/status/1520032772072607747?s=21&t=l9F7HfEBemfJY_XgjSfkEQ

    It is clearly far from perfect. As are human artists. However some of these limitations are built-in - anything to do with human faces, body parts, etc

    Imagine DALL-E 3 or 4 with these shackles removed…
    I like all the fails, especially the shopping trolleys and the mother and child but not so much the kitten. Now that we know it can produce indistinguishable-from-human art why limit it to that?

    BTW a prediction, the likes of banksy and tracey Emin will when they get access to it produce art which will sell for squillions where their only input is the instruction.
    Also, remember, this is "indistinguishable from human once it has been displayed on a flat 2d digital display".

    Go and look at any of this art in the flesh and it becomes a thousand times more subtle, textured, and interesting as the light reflects of brush strokes as you move around it.
    3D printing will solve that
    Sure, although we need considerable investment to deposit the right kinds of pigments in the right way.

    While we are in the vague area, there's a great digital tech for jewelers - basically a hammer that you wield physically, and it deforms a digital model. So you can get a genuinely unique, hand-crafted original work and mass produce zillions of them, all as high quality as the original, which, in a sense, each one is.

    This is the flip side of the "described and curated but not 'crafted'" - it's "crafted but there is no 'original' to own".
    I have seen the future, and it works. I need a transparent plastic gum guard thingy to stop me grinding my teeth away to nothing in my sleep, which I imagine in former times you'd make by biting an impression into a lump of plasticine and using that as a mould. These days, the dentist scanned my teeth with a little camera and send the results to a 3D printer in the USA, and the fit is just miraculous.
    3d printing (and ultra high resolution 3d scanning) is amazing. I first saw it in dentistry a decade ago, and it has come on leaps and bounds since then.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    edited May 2022
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    One of his ancestors. J Jeremy Bentham, used to be one of the people who ran the Dr Who Appreciation Society in the early eighties. A little pompous but pleasant.
    Do you mean descendants? Otherwise I don't wonder he was drawn to the Doctor, given he must have been of a similar age...

    (PResumably must have been a collateral descendant as IIRC Bentham had no children.)
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    How dumb does "The Russia Report" look now? Or was it more sinister than dumb. What many of us have been saying for years. Putin has invested heavily in using social media to influence the more gullible. He has fully exploited the weakness of social medias lack of regulation.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/huge-russian-troll-farm-run-from-old-arms-factory-spreading-putin-s-lies-on-social-media-uk-alleges/ar-AAWNYYK?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=535fec9e1b7f435c9379ac06ea0d411f
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    You already know the answers to all that. Their treatment in Rwanda will be basic, but in accordance with international norms, and the fairly substantial fees that the UK Government is paying for their care. The disincentive represented by relocation to Rwanda isn't cruelty, its the massive set back it represents to the ambition of living in the UK. It's worse than not leaving home. Torturing anyone to death would be cruel and inhumane.
    You don't really know Africa do you?
    No, I don't. Standards there would need to be monitored as they must be everywhere.
  • Andy_JS said:

    It's rather predictable that the LDs will win the Tiverton by-election by about 5,000 votes and then lose it back to the Tories at the GE. Anything other than that scenario would be interesting.

    Yes, Chesham and Amersham is probably about 50/50 at the GE though.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Taz said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    One of his ancestors. J Jeremy Bentham, used to be one of the people who ran the Dr Who Appreciation Society in the early eighties. A little pompous but pleasant.
    A time lord, then.
    Probably Pertwee, but it could be many of them.
    No, I mean Bentham's ancestor....
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    IshmaelZ said:

    Taz said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    One of his ancestors. J Jeremy Bentham, used to be one of the people who ran the Dr Who Appreciation Society in the early eighties. A little pompous but pleasant.
    A time lord, then.
    Probably Pertwee, but it could be many of them.
    No, I mean Bentham's ancestor....
    I think you mean descendant, which may be confusing people. 👍
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958
    mwadams said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A computer created this non-existent photo of a non-existent muddy dog



    Now, imagine the chaos when this AI is let loose on human faces and bodies. Because it will happen, despite all the precautions taken. This tech is too powerful to be stopped

    So you could type in the prompt:

    “A realistic photo of Keir Starmer gorging on caviar and cocaine in a Labour Party office, during lockdown”

    Or

    “A realistic photo of a naked Boris Johnson being masturbated in the Cabinet Office by three naked ballet dancers on a tractor”

    Or much much worse

    This is going to cause unbelievable chaos. Truth is over. Art is imperilled

    You've been able to mock up such images with software like Photoshop for decades. Why no such chaos hitherto?
    No. This is in a different universe to Photoshop. You don’t understand
    What is unique about Dalle is that it creates from words. But don't underestimate the similarities at the image processing level between the two. When you do a "smart erase" in Photoshop, and it "invents" what you see behind the image you remove, it's using a very similar neutral net.
    People invest extra magic in the image generation which, as you say, is well worn (e.g. we've been using "this face does not exist" tech for quite a while for persona generation)

    And the text interpretation is also not that sophisticated (and look what a bad job it does until a human curates its output...)

    Yes, it has a powerful impact, but *only* when its workings are not well understood, and when it is well curated by humans.
    On the curation, that's very true. We don't get to see the 90% of generated stuff that isn't interesting.
    Yes we do. Dig a little deeper. Check this illuminating thread

    “DALL-E is crazy impressive.

    But I’m getting a feel for what it can and can’t do, and there are some quite noticeable limitations you won’t see on the curated publicised examples (including my own).

    So, 8 limitations of DALL-E, a thread:

    (also, have a #dalle koala doing magic)”

    https://twitter.com/benjamin_hilton/status/1520032772072607747?s=21&t=l9F7HfEBemfJY_XgjSfkEQ

    It is clearly far from perfect. As are human artists. However some of these limitations are built-in - anything to do with human faces, body parts, etc

    Imagine DALL-E 3 or 4 with these shackles removed…
    I like all the fails, especially the shopping trolleys and the mother and child but not so much the kitten. Now that we know it can produce indistinguishable-from-human art why limit it to that?

    BTW a prediction, the likes of banksy and tracey Emin will when they get access to it produce art which will sell for squillions where their only input is the instruction.
    Also, remember, this is "indistinguishable from human once it has been displayed on a flat 2d digital display".

    Go and look at any of this art in the flesh and it becomes a thousand times more subtle, textured, and interesting as the light reflects off brush strokes as you move around it.
    V. true. Happened to me loads, the strongest reaction I had was seeing Constable (an artist I’d always ranked behind Turner) watercolours in the Philly Museum of Art, the colours absolutely ZINGED off the paper and the confident exuberance of the brush strokes blew me away. Not to get too metaphysical but I think you can momentarily feel a connection with the human that made these things.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    Have you looked at the photos of the hotel they are staying in? Roughly at the level of a basic tourist hotel.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    mwadams said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Taz said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    One of his ancestors. J Jeremy Bentham, used to be one of the people who ran the Dr Who Appreciation Society in the early eighties. A little pompous but pleasant.
    A time lord, then.
    Probably Pertwee, but it could be many of them.
    No, I mean Bentham's ancestor....
    I think you mean descendant, which may be confusing people. 👍
    Shit, that was him, not me. That's the point I was making.

    I'm explaining. I must be losing.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    You keep forgetting about Corbyn's 2019 performance: 11,654 (19.5%) compared to LDs' 8,807 (14.8%).
    SKS appears likely to do worse than 2017 and 2019 in this By Election

    SKS fans please explain
    As you are a dying breed of "Corbyn fan" can you *please explain* why your idol was so shit that he allowed the most ridiculous figure ever to lead to the Conservative Party to romp home with a massive majority?,
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593

    mwadams said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A computer created this non-existent photo of a non-existent muddy dog



    Now, imagine the chaos when this AI is let loose on human faces and bodies. Because it will happen, despite all the precautions taken. This tech is too powerful to be stopped

    So you could type in the prompt:

    “A realistic photo of Keir Starmer gorging on caviar and cocaine in a Labour Party office, during lockdown”

    Or

    “A realistic photo of a naked Boris Johnson being masturbated in the Cabinet Office by three naked ballet dancers on a tractor”

    Or much much worse

    This is going to cause unbelievable chaos. Truth is over. Art is imperilled

    You've been able to mock up such images with software like Photoshop for decades. Why no such chaos hitherto?
    No. This is in a different universe to Photoshop. You don’t understand
    What is unique about Dalle is that it creates from words. But don't underestimate the similarities at the image processing level between the two. When you do a "smart erase" in Photoshop, and it "invents" what you see behind the image you remove, it's using a very similar neutral net.
    People invest extra magic in the image generation which, as you say, is well worn (e.g. we've been using "this face does not exist" tech for quite a while for persona generation)

    And the text interpretation is also not that sophisticated (and look what a bad job it does until a human curates its output...)

    Yes, it has a powerful impact, but *only* when its workings are not well understood, and when it is well curated by humans.
    On the curation, that's very true. We don't get to see the 90% of generated stuff that isn't interesting.
    Yes we do. Dig a little deeper. Check this illuminating thread

    “DALL-E is crazy impressive.

    But I’m getting a feel for what it can and can’t do, and there are some quite noticeable limitations you won’t see on the curated publicised examples (including my own).

    So, 8 limitations of DALL-E, a thread:

    (also, have a #dalle koala doing magic)”

    https://twitter.com/benjamin_hilton/status/1520032772072607747?s=21&t=l9F7HfEBemfJY_XgjSfkEQ

    It is clearly far from perfect. As are human artists. However some of these limitations are built-in - anything to do with human faces, body parts, etc

    Imagine DALL-E 3 or 4 with these shackles removed…
    I like all the fails, especially the shopping trolleys and the mother and child but not so much the kitten. Now that we know it can produce indistinguishable-from-human art why limit it to that?

    BTW a prediction, the likes of banksy and tracey Emin will when they get access to it produce art which will sell for squillions where their only input is the instruction.
    Also, remember, this is "indistinguishable from human once it has been displayed on a flat 2d digital display".

    Go and look at any of this art in the flesh and it becomes a thousand times more subtle, textured, and interesting as the light reflects off brush strokes as you move around it.
    V. true. Happened to me loads, the strongest reaction I had was seeing Constable (an artist I’d always ranked behind Turner) watercolours in the Philly Museum of Art, the colours absolutely ZINGED off the paper and the confident exuberance of the brush strokes blew me away. Not to get too metaphysical but I think you can momentarily feel a connection with the human that made these things.
    And with oils, getting the inches of yellowed Victorian varnish off and bringing out the colours and textures is just astonishing.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    In the longer term, no asylum claims should be processed in the UK. There should a centre in Africa, one in the Indian subcontinent, one in Central Europe, and one in the Middle East or the Far East. All claims would be dealt with there. Easy for genuine claimants to get to. Pointless for economic migrants to bother. There could also be gaols for high security prisoners there. Prisoners out, successful asylum seekers back in.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593

    mwadams said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A computer created this non-existent photo of a non-existent muddy dog



    Now, imagine the chaos when this AI is let loose on human faces and bodies. Because it will happen, despite all the precautions taken. This tech is too powerful to be stopped

    So you could type in the prompt:

    “A realistic photo of Keir Starmer gorging on caviar and cocaine in a Labour Party office, during lockdown”

    Or

    “A realistic photo of a naked Boris Johnson being masturbated in the Cabinet Office by three naked ballet dancers on a tractor”

    Or much much worse

    This is going to cause unbelievable chaos. Truth is over. Art is imperilled

    You've been able to mock up such images with software like Photoshop for decades. Why no such chaos hitherto?
    No. This is in a different universe to Photoshop. You don’t understand
    What is unique about Dalle is that it creates from words. But don't underestimate the similarities at the image processing level between the two. When you do a "smart erase" in Photoshop, and it "invents" what you see behind the image you remove, it's using a very similar neutral net.
    People invest extra magic in the image generation which, as you say, is well worn (e.g. we've been using "this face does not exist" tech for quite a while for persona generation)

    And the text interpretation is also not that sophisticated (and look what a bad job it does until a human curates its output...)

    Yes, it has a powerful impact, but *only* when its workings are not well understood, and when it is well curated by humans.
    On the curation, that's very true. We don't get to see the 90% of generated stuff that isn't interesting.
    Yes we do. Dig a little deeper. Check this illuminating thread

    “DALL-E is crazy impressive.

    But I’m getting a feel for what it can and can’t do, and there are some quite noticeable limitations you won’t see on the curated publicised examples (including my own).

    So, 8 limitations of DALL-E, a thread:

    (also, have a #dalle koala doing magic)”

    https://twitter.com/benjamin_hilton/status/1520032772072607747?s=21&t=l9F7HfEBemfJY_XgjSfkEQ

    It is clearly far from perfect. As are human artists. However some of these limitations are built-in - anything to do with human faces, body parts, etc

    Imagine DALL-E 3 or 4 with these shackles removed…
    I like all the fails, especially the shopping trolleys and the mother and child but not so much the kitten. Now that we know it can produce indistinguishable-from-human art why limit it to that?

    BTW a prediction, the likes of banksy and tracey Emin will when they get access to it produce art which will sell for squillions where their only input is the instruction.
    Also, remember, this is "indistinguishable from human once it has been displayed on a flat 2d digital display".

    Go and look at any of this art in the flesh and it becomes a thousand times more subtle, textured, and interesting as the light reflects off brush strokes as you move around it.
    V. true. Happened to me loads, the strongest reaction I had was seeing Constable (an artist I’d always ranked behind Turner) watercolours in the Philly Museum of Art, the colours absolutely ZINGED off the paper and the confident exuberance of the brush strokes blew me away. Not to get too metaphysical but I think you can momentarily feel a connection with the human that made these things.
    I agree about the connection, too. I get that holding stone tools. You can turn them in your hands and know that someone 5k years ago did the same, and you are the first person to do that since they dropped it.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    SeaShantyIrish - Since you asked, Minnesota's Jesse Ventura and Washington state's own Dixie Lee Ray. There are other unusual governors since World War II, but those are the first that come to mind.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Ventura
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixy_Lee_Ray

    Back to Bobby Jindal. He is, without doubt, a superb adminstrator. He is also, a conviction conservative, similar in some ways to Margaret Thatcher. But he is not an especailly gifted poltician.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    SKS slipping to 3rd says all there is to say about his Leadership.

    His whole strategy is based on attracting disaffected Tories should be loads of those at this By Election

    As you are a Corbyn fan you may need to read this very slowly:

    Tories rarely defect directly to Labour, they either go LD or stay at home.

    Jeremy would struggle with that as he has a very very low IQ. I cannot imagine yours is quite as low as your idol, so perhaps you might grasp that simple concept.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    Then you need to propose an alternative. I’ve not seen anything convincing beyond virtue signalling and vague hand waving, which amount to: let them all come

    I saw a prediction just now that 60-70,000 might arrive this way, this year. If that is anywhere near correct it is insupportable. The numbers are tripling every year

    If we don’t find a solution now this will end with the Navy shooting at the boats to deter them, and many many drownings. No nation can allow a total loss of control of its borders
    He could use some of the slave money* that he lives on to help rebuild Africa

    * the legacy of reparations paid to British landowners to compensate them for their slaves being freed. Consider it a personal redemption
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    Then you need to propose an alternative. I’ve not seen anything convincing beyond virtue signalling and vague hand waving, which amount to: let them all come

    I saw a prediction just now that 60-70,000 might arrive this way, this year. If that is anywhere near correct it is insupportable. The numbers are tripling every year

    If we don’t find a solution now this will end with the Navy shooting at the boats to deter them, and many many drownings. No nation can allow a total loss of control of its borders
    He could use some of the slave money* that he lives on to help rebuild Africa

    * the legacy of reparations paid to British landowners to compensate them for their slaves being freed. Consider it a personal redemption
    I expect the Tories to lose in 2024. And Starmer to lead a NOM govt. In a macabre way it will be entertaining to watch Labour struggle and completely fail to solve any of these intractable problems. They are bereft of ideas and entirely lacking in imagination or courage

    So their fragile coalition might collapse quite quickly, under the weight of failure. And the Tories could be back in a year or two
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249

    In the longer term, no asylum claims should be processed in the UK. There should a centre in Africa, one in the Indian subcontinent, one in Central Europe, and one in the Middle East or the Far East. All claims would be dealt with there. Easy for genuine claimants to get to. Pointless for economic migrants to bother. There could also be gaols for high security prisoners there. Prisoners out, successful asylum seekers back in.

    Like this you mean?

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/12/06/the-secretive-libyan-prisons-that-keep-migrants-out-of-europe
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    Have you looked at the photos of the hotel they are staying in? Roughly at the level of a basic tourist hotel.
    Dalle 3 prompt: a photo of a basic tourist hotel room which you sell to the terminally gullible as representing an actual Rwandan detention centre.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,255
    edited May 2022

    In the longer term, no asylum claims should be processed in the UK. There should a centre in Africa, one in the Indian subcontinent, one in Central Europe, and one in the Middle East or the Far East. All claims would be dealt with there. Easy for genuine claimants to get to. Pointless for economic migrants to bother. There could also be gaols for high security prisoners there. Prisoners out, successful asylum seekers back in.

    Like this you mean?

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/12/06/the-secretive-libyan-prisons-that-keep-migrants-out-of-europe
    Indeed

    The bit about auctioning the labour of the prisoners seems…. Efficient?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    Then you need to propose an alternative. I’ve not seen anything convincing beyond virtue signalling and vague hand waving, which amount to: let them all come

    I saw a prediction just now that 60-70,000 might arrive this way, this year. If that is anywhere near correct it is insupportable. The numbers are tripling every year

    If we don’t find a solution now this will end with the Navy shooting at the boats to deter them, and many many drownings. No nation can allow a total loss of control of its borders
    He could use some of the slave money* that he lives on to help rebuild Africa

    * the legacy of reparations paid to British landowners to compensate them for their slaves being freed. Consider it a personal redemption
    I expect the Tories to lose in 2024. And Starmer to lead a NOM govt. In a macabre way it will be entertaining to watch Labour struggle and completely fail to solve any of these intractable problems. They are bereft of ideas and entirely lacking in imagination or courage

    So their fragile coalition might collapse quite quickly, under the weight of failure. And the Tories could be back in a year or two
    I think that might be a good outcome from my personal selfish perspective. I suspect people assumed that sort of thing might happen prior to 1997
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    Then you need to propose an alternative. I’ve not seen anything convincing beyond virtue signalling and vague hand waving, which amount to: let them all come

    I saw a prediction just now that 60-70,000 might arrive this way, this year. If that is anywhere near correct it is insupportable. The numbers are tripling every year

    If we don’t find a solution now this will end with the Navy shooting at the boats to deter them, and many many drownings. No nation can allow a total loss of control of its borders
    He could use some of the slave money* that he lives on to help rebuild Africa

    * the legacy of reparations paid to British landowners to compensate them for their slaves being freed. Consider it a personal redemption
    What? It was slave owners, not land owners. The one probably implied the other, but nobody I am descended from owned so much as a pot to piss in in 1834.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    One of his ancestors. J Jeremy Bentham, used to be one of the people who ran the Dr Who Appreciation Society in the early eighties. A little pompous but pleasant.
    Do you mean descendants? Otherwise I don't wonder he was drawn to the Doctor, given he must have been of a similar age...

    (PResumably must have been a collateral descendant as IIRC Bentham had no children.)
    I must mean that. Apologies for not getting the term precise.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    edited May 2022
    Ping!
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    Then you need to propose an alternative. I’ve not seen anything convincing beyond virtue signalling and vague hand waving, which amount to: let them all come

    I saw a prediction just now that 60-70,000 might arrive this way, this year. If that is anywhere near correct it is insupportable. The numbers are tripling every year

    If we don’t find a solution now this will end with the Navy shooting at the boats to deter them, and many many drownings. No nation can allow a total loss of control of its borders
    He could use some of the slave money* that he lives on to help rebuild Africa

    * the legacy of reparations paid to British landowners to compensate them for their slaves being freed. Consider it a personal redemption
    I expect the Tories to lose in 2024. And Starmer to lead a NOM govt. In a macabre way it will be entertaining to watch Labour struggle and completely fail to solve any of these intractable problems. They are bereft of ideas and entirely lacking in imagination or courage

    So their fragile coalition might collapse quite quickly, under the weight of failure. And the Tories could be back in a year or two
    I think that might be a good outcome from my personal selfish perspective. I suspect people assumed that sort of thing might happen prior to 1997
    By 2025 we'll be renaming railway stations after Boris and petitioning him to return as a way of national redemption.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    In the longer term, no asylum claims should be processed in the UK. There should a centre in Africa, one in the Indian subcontinent, one in Central Europe, and one in the Middle East or the Far East. All claims would be dealt with there. Easy for genuine claimants to get to. Pointless for economic migrants to bother. There could also be gaols for high security prisoners there. Prisoners out, successful asylum seekers back in.

    Like this you mean?

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/12/06/the-secretive-libyan-prisons-that-keep-migrants-out-of-europe
    Indeed

    The bit about auctioning the labour of the prisoners seems…. Efficient?
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Fatal-Shore-Robert-Hughes/dp/0099448548

    where they may have got the idea
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    IshmaelZ said:

    In the longer term, no asylum claims should be processed in the UK. There should a centre in Africa, one in the Indian subcontinent, one in Central Europe, and one in the Middle East or the Far East. All claims would be dealt with there. Easy for genuine claimants to get to. Pointless for economic migrants to bother. There could also be gaols for high security prisoners there. Prisoners out, successful asylum seekers back in.

    Like this you mean?

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/12/06/the-secretive-libyan-prisons-that-keep-migrants-out-of-europe
    Indeed

    The bit about auctioning the labour of the prisoners seems…. Efficient?
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Fatal-Shore-Robert-Hughes/dp/0099448548

    where they may have got the idea
    Inter alia, a truly magnificent work of history. Which taught me that Aussies were traditionally homophobic (“no poofters!”) because so many of them became necessarily gay during the woman-hungry years of Transportation

    A secret national shame…
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Ok the sun has returned so I’m going to GET THE FUCK UP and go eat oysters, and hear me some jazz. Later
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    Then you need to propose an alternative. I’ve not seen anything convincing beyond virtue signalling and vague hand waving, which amount to: let them all come

    I saw a prediction just now that 60-70,000 might arrive this way, this year. If that is anywhere near correct it is insupportable. The numbers are tripling every year

    If we don’t find a solution now this will end with the Navy shooting at the boats to deter them, and many many drownings. No nation can allow a total loss of control of its borders
    He could use some of the slave money* that he lives on to help rebuild Africa

    * the legacy of reparations paid to British landowners to compensate them for their slaves being freed. Consider it a personal redemption
    I expect the Tories to lose in 2024. And Starmer to lead a NOM govt. In a macabre way it will be entertaining to watch Labour struggle and completely fail to solve any of these intractable problems. They are bereft of ideas and entirely lacking in imagination or courage

    So their fragile coalition might collapse quite quickly, under the weight of failure. And the Tories could be back in a year or two
    I think that might be a good outcome from my personal selfish perspective. I suspect people assumed that sort of thing might happen prior to 1997
    By 2025 we'll be renaming railway stations after Boris and petitioning him to return as a way of national redemption.
    I really, really don’t want to leave that legacy to my grandchildren!
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited May 2022

    Ping!

    Wassup?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    Leon said:

    Speaking of St Charles Ave in New Orleans, worked for a guy whose aunt & uncle lived in one of those big houses during the 1950s and 1960s.

    On one memorable occasion, uncle came home from work to find aunt in tears. Because an couple of NO police had stopped by, because she'd wracked up an impressive number of unpaid parking tickets!

    This visit upset the lady, and the fact that the cops had come to his home in his absence, questioning and scaring his wife, enraged my friends uncle.

    Uncle belonged to a rather exclusive, old-school NO gentleman's club. No hanky-panky (except for some slot machines & poker playing) but with well-stocked (and well-used) bar.

    Happened that the Mayor of New Orleans, deLesseps (Cheep) Morrison, was also a member. So uncle determined that he'd go down to the club, wait for His Honor to make is appearance - then shoot the son of a bitch!

    My friend, a college student at the time, was staying with his uncle & aunt during a school break. He'd been out while all this was transpiring, and when he got back, his aunt told him what was going down.

    So he hightailed it down to the club. When he got there, the attendants or whatever they called them, told him that "Mr Stanley" (his first name btw in Deep South fashion) was at the bar in a dangerous state. "I'm gonna killed the god-damn sonofabitch" he kept muttering into his drink(s).

    Fortunately my friend was able to coax his uncle to return home BEFORE the mayor showed.

    BTW, had ANOTHER friend, from somewhat different social strata, who got arrested around the same period, on suspicion for having murdered the mayor's mistress. Fortunately for him, turned out someone else had done that deed.

    Do you know the origin of the deep frying tradition in the South? It’s not a lie, they really do deep fry A LOT

    I had some deep fried oysters last night. Hmm. Not bad. But I’d not choose to have them again. Give me them raw and salty please

    I wonder if it is the heat down here. Making food go off quicker? If you deep fry something you can murder a lot of bugs and disguise a lot of rot, and deep fried food can then keep for a while…
    I always assumed it was the “Scots-Irish” heritage. It’s definitely a thing.

    As for the heat, god only knows what New Orleans was like in summer before air-con.

    My aunt-in-law, who is now a celebrated children’s author, lived in Darwin for a period in the early 70s and she says half the population were literally driven insane and to alcoholism by the heat and humidity.
    What bollox, deep fried was never a Scottish heritage it is a very modern thing
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,661

    On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    You keep forgetting about Corbyn's 2019 performance: 11,654 (19.5%) compared to LDs' 8,807 (14.8%).
    SKS appears likely to do worse than 2017 and 2019 in this By Election

    SKS fans please explain
    As you are a dying breed of "Corbyn fan" can you *please explain* why your idol was so shit that he allowed the most ridiculous figure ever to lead to the Conservative Party to romp home with a massive majority?,
    SKS will do worse than 2017 but better than 2019

    If he does worse than 2017 how is that possible.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    SeaShantyIrish - Since you asked, Minnesota's Jesse Ventura and Washington state's own Dixie Lee Ray. There are other unusual governors since World War II, but those are the first that come to mind.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Ventura
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixy_Lee_Ray

    Back to Bobby Jindal. He is, without doubt, a superb adminstrator. He is also, a conviction conservative, similar in some ways to Margaret Thatcher. But he is not an especailly gifted poltician.

    Ventura is great example, and Dixy even better.

    FYI (also BTW) yours truly worked for guy who was Dixy Lee Ray's campaign manager when she first ran for governor of WA State in 1976. They parted ways soon after she took office, and four years later he was campaign manager for her leading Democratic opponent, Jim McDermott. He won the Democratic nomination instead of Dixy, but lost the general to the Republican nominee, John Spellman.

    (This was when WA State had the blanket primary, where all candidates were on primary ballot, with top Dem getting D nomination, top Rep getting R nomination, and any others with at least 1% also making general election ballot. MUCH better IMHO than current Top-Two primary.)

    My friend's verdict on Dixy: "We thought she would be the best governor Washington ever had, or the worst, and we were right."

    Dixy Lee Ray was definitely NOT your average politico!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixy_Lee_Ray
  • SussexJamesSussexJames Posts: 86
    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    mwadams said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A computer created this non-existent photo of a non-existent muddy dog



    Now, imagine the chaos when this AI is let loose on human faces and bodies. Because it will happen, despite all the precautions taken. This tech is too powerful to be stopped

    So you could type in the prompt:

    “A realistic photo of Keir Starmer gorging on caviar and cocaine in a Labour Party office, during lockdown”

    Or

    “A realistic photo of a naked Boris Johnson being masturbated in the Cabinet Office by three naked ballet dancers on a tractor”

    Or much much worse

    This is going to cause unbelievable chaos. Truth is over. Art is imperilled

    You've been able to mock up such images with software like Photoshop for decades. Why no such chaos hitherto?
    No. This is in a different universe to Photoshop. You don’t understand
    What is unique about Dalle is that it creates from words. But don't underestimate the similarities at the image processing level between the two. When you do a "smart erase" in Photoshop, and it "invents" what you see behind the image you remove, it's using a very similar neutral net.
    People invest extra magic in the image generation which, as you say, is well worn (e.g. we've been using "this face does not exist" tech for quite a while for persona generation)

    And the text interpretation is also not that sophisticated (and look what a bad job it does until a human curates its output...)

    Yes, it has a powerful impact, but *only* when its workings are not well understood, and when it is well curated by humans.
    On the curation, that's very true. We don't get to see the 90% of generated stuff that isn't interesting.
    Yes we do. Dig a little deeper. Check this illuminating thread

    “DALL-E is crazy impressive.

    But I’m getting a feel for what it can and can’t do, and there are some quite noticeable limitations you won’t see on the curated publicised examples (including my own).

    So, 8 limitations of DALL-E, a thread:

    (also, have a #dalle koala doing magic)”

    https://twitter.com/benjamin_hilton/status/1520032772072607747?s=21&t=l9F7HfEBemfJY_XgjSfkEQ

    It is clearly far from perfect. As are human artists. However some of these limitations are built-in - anything to do with human faces, body parts, etc

    Imagine DALL-E 3 or 4 with these shackles removed…
    I like all the fails, especially the shopping trolleys and the mother and child but not so much the kitten. Now that we know it can produce indistinguishable-from-human art why limit it to that?

    BTW a prediction, the likes of banksy and tracey Emin will when they get access to it produce art which will sell for squillions where their only input is the instruction.
    Also, remember, this is "indistinguishable from human once it has been displayed on a flat 2d digital display".

    Go and look at any of this art in the flesh and it becomes a thousand times more subtle, textured, and interesting as the light reflects off brush strokes as you move around it.
    V. true. Happened to me loads, the strongest reaction I had was seeing Constable (an artist I’d always ranked behind Turner) watercolours in the Philly Museum of Art, the colours absolutely ZINGED off the paper and the confident exuberance of the brush strokes blew me away. Not to get too metaphysical but I think you can momentarily feel a connection with the human that made these things.
    I agree about the connection, too. I get that holding stone tools. You can turn them in your hands and know that someone 5k years ago did the same, and you are the first person to do that since they dropped it.
    I heard a story years ago at a booksigning for a book on archaeology that back in the 80s/90s there was a lot of argument about what a lot of stone age tools were actually for. An archaeologist doing his PhD (I think at Boxgrove) was the son of a master butcher. As part of his PhD, he laid out an array of genuine Stone Age tools and a half-carcass of an ox, and asked his father to get stuck in. His father looked at the tools, went 'oh, that's what I need to do the first bit', picked up whatever it was, and got on with it. A short while later, he had a fully butchered carcass, including taking off the skin, cracking bones for marrow, etc., and the archaeologists knew what everything was. The butcher asked if he could have the tools, because they were the best he'd ever used. Apparently, somewhere there is a video of the whole process.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    You keep forgetting about Corbyn's 2019 performance: 11,654 (19.5%) compared to LDs' 8,807 (14.8%).
    SKS appears likely to do worse than 2017 and 2019 in this By Election

    SKS fans please explain
    As you are a dying breed of "Corbyn fan" can you *please explain* why your idol was so shit that he allowed the most ridiculous figure ever to lead to the Conservative Party to romp home with a massive majority?,
    SKS will do worse than 2017 but better than 2019

    If he does worse than 2017 how is that possible.
    Because he's

    (A) starting from a much lower base, in terms of MPs and public trust

    (B) not likely to be against Theresa May

    (C) not likely to be able to tap into sentiment from one side on a binary issue while keeping the trust of those on the other side

    (D) He'll have had longer in the job than Corbyn and a much higher profile, so be rather less of a blank canvas.

    The question is not 'how does Starmer do worse than in 2017' it's 'how did a nutcase like Corbyn who was unfit to be clerk to Handsworth Parish Council do so f***ing well?'

    And the answer is - well, complicated. Too complex it would seem for many on the left to grasp.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    Have you looked at the photos of the hotel they are staying in? Roughly at the level of a basic tourist hotel.
    Dalle 3 prompt: a photo of a basic tourist hotel room which you sell to the terminally gullible as representing an actual Rwandan detention centre.
    So you would rather accuse the government - without evidence - of humans rights abuses? How very fair minded of you.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249

    In the longer term, no asylum claims should be processed in the UK. There should a centre in Africa, one in the Indian subcontinent, one in Central Europe, and one in the Middle East or the Far East. All claims would be dealt with there. Easy for genuine claimants to get to. Pointless for economic migrants to bother. There could also be gaols for high security prisoners there. Prisoners out, successful asylum seekers back in.

    Like this you mean?

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/12/06/the-secretive-libyan-prisons-that-keep-migrants-out-of-europe
    Indeed

    The bit about auctioning the labour of the prisoners seems…. Efficient?
    $88 seems a lot for a day rate… presumably a long term contract?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Tory fightback.

    "Rayner did make PMQs leg-crossing comments, Tories say"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61292313
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    Speaking of St Charles Ave in New Orleans, worked for a guy whose aunt & uncle lived in one of those big houses during the 1950s and 1960s.

    On one memorable occasion, uncle came home from work to find aunt in tears. Because an couple of NO police had stopped by, because she'd wracked up an impressive number of unpaid parking tickets!

    This visit upset the lady, and the fact that the cops had come to his home in his absence, questioning and scaring his wife, enraged my friends uncle.

    Uncle belonged to a rather exclusive, old-school NO gentleman's club. No hanky-panky (except for some slot machines & poker playing) but with well-stocked (and well-used) bar.

    Happened that the Mayor of New Orleans, deLesseps (Cheep) Morrison, was also a member. So uncle determined that he'd go down to the club, wait for His Honor to make is appearance - then shoot the son of a bitch!

    My friend, a college student at the time, was staying with his uncle & aunt during a school break. He'd been out while all this was transpiring, and when he got back, his aunt told him what was going down.

    So he hightailed it down to the club. When he got there, the attendants or whatever they called them, told him that "Mr Stanley" (his first name btw in Deep South fashion) was at the bar in a dangerous state. "I'm gonna killed the god-damn sonofabitch" he kept muttering into his drink(s).

    Fortunately my friend was able to coax his uncle to return home BEFORE the mayor showed.

    BTW, had ANOTHER friend, from somewhat different social strata, who got arrested around the same period, on suspicion for having murdered the mayor's mistress. Fortunately for him, turned out someone else had done that deed.

    Do you know the origin of the deep frying tradition in the South? It’s not a lie, they really do deep fry A LOT

    I had some deep fried oysters last night. Hmm. Not bad. But I’d not choose to have them again. Give me them raw and salty please

    I wonder if it is the heat down here. Making food go off quicker? If you deep fry something you can murder a lot of bugs and disguise a lot of rot, and deep fried food can then keep for a while…
    I always assumed it was the “Scots-Irish” heritage. It’s definitely a thing.

    As for the heat, god only knows what New Orleans was like in summer before air-con.

    My aunt-in-law, who is now a celebrated children’s author, lived in Darwin for a period in the early 70s and she says half the population were literally driven insane and to alcoholism by the heat and humidity.
    What bollox, deep fried was never a Scottish heritage it is a very modern thing
    True. I don't see how you can do it before the days of cheap imported vegetable oil
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,661

    On Topic

    In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)

    You keep forgetting about Corbyn's 2019 performance: 11,654 (19.5%) compared to LDs' 8,807 (14.8%).
    SKS appears likely to do worse than 2017 and 2019 in this By Election

    SKS fans please explain
    Stick to Keir’s inability to “cut through” nationally.

    Your by-election whingeing convinces nobody.
    A man whose whole strategy is based on attracting disaffected Tories looks to be convincing nobody either
    Your strand of Labour puritanism - we don't want disaffected Tories voting for us - would keep us out of power for ever. But maybe that's what you want. Some of us lefties want power though - and that means compromising with some voters and persuading others. Nothing new here - ask Atlee, Wilson, Blair....
    You aint going to get power under SKS.

    SKS isnt Atlee or Wilson and although he tries isnt Blair either

    My strand of Labour got us very close to getting rid of the Tories in 2017

    The current shadow Chancellor says she is "pleased" Corbyn isn't PM

    Suck it up SKSWNBPM and I am pleased about that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    Andy_JS said:

    Tory fightback.

    "Rayner did make PMQs leg-crossing comments, Tories say"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61292313

    As John Major said, 'when your back's against the wall, then it's time to turn round and fight.'
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon, you may wish to check out Tipintina's on Tchoupitoulas St.

    If only to pay homage to the bust of Professor Longhair.

    Professor Longhair - Tipitina
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-lsiDJWMsQ
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    IshmaelZ said:

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    Speaking of St Charles Ave in New Orleans, worked for a guy whose aunt & uncle lived in one of those big houses during the 1950s and 1960s.

    On one memorable occasion, uncle came home from work to find aunt in tears. Because an couple of NO police had stopped by, because she'd wracked up an impressive number of unpaid parking tickets!

    This visit upset the lady, and the fact that the cops had come to his home in his absence, questioning and scaring his wife, enraged my friends uncle.

    Uncle belonged to a rather exclusive, old-school NO gentleman's club. No hanky-panky (except for some slot machines & poker playing) but with well-stocked (and well-used) bar.

    Happened that the Mayor of New Orleans, deLesseps (Cheep) Morrison, was also a member. So uncle determined that he'd go down to the club, wait for His Honor to make is appearance - then shoot the son of a bitch!

    My friend, a college student at the time, was staying with his uncle & aunt during a school break. He'd been out while all this was transpiring, and when he got back, his aunt told him what was going down.

    So he hightailed it down to the club. When he got there, the attendants or whatever they called them, told him that "Mr Stanley" (his first name btw in Deep South fashion) was at the bar in a dangerous state. "I'm gonna killed the god-damn sonofabitch" he kept muttering into his drink(s).

    Fortunately my friend was able to coax his uncle to return home BEFORE the mayor showed.

    BTW, had ANOTHER friend, from somewhat different social strata, who got arrested around the same period, on suspicion for having murdered the mayor's mistress. Fortunately for him, turned out someone else had done that deed.

    Do you know the origin of the deep frying tradition in the South? It’s not a lie, they really do deep fry A LOT

    I had some deep fried oysters last night. Hmm. Not bad. But I’d not choose to have them again. Give me them raw and salty please

    I wonder if it is the heat down here. Making food go off quicker? If you deep fry something you can murder a lot of bugs and disguise a lot of rot, and deep fried food can then keep for a while…
    I always assumed it was the “Scots-Irish” heritage. It’s definitely a thing.

    As for the heat, god only knows what New Orleans was like in summer before air-con.

    My aunt-in-law, who is now a celebrated children’s author, lived in Darwin for a period in the early 70s and she says half the population were literally driven insane and to alcoholism by the heat and humidity.
    What bollox, deep fried was never a Scottish heritage it is a very modern thing
    True. I don't see how you can do it before the days of cheap imported vegetable oil
    Yes and it is UK wide into the bargain, as many if not more lard arses around other parts of UK as in Scotland.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Speaking of St Charles Ave in New Orleans, worked for a guy whose aunt & uncle lived in one of those big houses during the 1950s and 1960s.

    On one memorable occasion, uncle came home from work to find aunt in tears. Because an couple of NO police had stopped by, because she'd wracked up an impressive number of unpaid parking tickets!

    This visit upset the lady, and the fact that the cops had come to his home in his absence, questioning and scaring his wife, enraged my friends uncle.

    Uncle belonged to a rather exclusive, old-school NO gentleman's club. No hanky-panky (except for some slot machines & poker playing) but with well-stocked (and well-used) bar.

    Happened that the Mayor of New Orleans, deLesseps (Cheep) Morrison, was also a member. So uncle determined that he'd go down to the club, wait for His Honor to make is appearance - then shoot the son of a bitch!

    My friend, a college student at the time, was staying with his uncle & aunt during a school break. He'd been out while all this was transpiring, and when he got back, his aunt told him what was going down.

    So he hightailed it down to the club. When he got there, the attendants or whatever they called them, told him that "Mr Stanley" (his first name btw in Deep South fashion) was at the bar in a dangerous state. "I'm gonna killed the god-damn sonofabitch" he kept muttering into his drink(s).

    Fortunately my friend was able to coax his uncle to return home BEFORE the mayor showed.

    BTW, had ANOTHER friend, from somewhat different social strata, who got arrested around the same period, on suspicion for having murdered the mayor's mistress. Fortunately for him, turned out someone else had done that deed.

    Do you know the origin of the deep frying tradition in the South? It’s not a lie, they really do deep fry A LOT

    I had some deep fried oysters last night. Hmm. Not bad. But I’d not choose to have them again. Give me them raw and salty please

    I wonder if it is the heat down here. Making food go off quicker? If you deep fry something you can murder a lot of bugs and disguise a lot of rot, and deep fried food can then keep for a while…
    I always assumed it was the “Scots-Irish” heritage. It’s definitely a thing.

    As for the heat, god only knows what New Orleans was like in summer before air-con.

    My aunt-in-law, who is now a celebrated children’s author, lived in Darwin for a period in the early 70s and she says half the population were literally driven insane and to alcoholism by the heat and humidity.
    Don't think it's anything to do with Scots-Irish. Deep fat frying is not found in old cookbooks that I can recall. Fish and chips came with Jewish immigrants tyo the big cities of Scotland in the late C19.

    I wonder if it is shallow pan frying that was imported to the US, and latr converted to industrial deep frying?
    This guy thinks it is a form of preservation learned from Native Americans

    https://deepsouthmag.com/2012/12/03/the-real-roots-of-southern-cuisine/

    But this BBC article says fried chicken (at least) really does come from Britain - and probably Scotland

    https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20201012-the-surprising-origin-of-fried-chicken
    What does the BBC know of Scotland? It cites just one report from Skye c 1760. And Boswell was probably half pished anyway.

    Seriously, though, we need to demonstrate fried chicken US style in Scotland by say 1835 - which brings us nicely to Meg Dods Cookbook (recte by the protofeminist writer and editor Christian Johnstone AIUI). I can find broiling and/or shallow frying of chicken, veal etc. sometimes in egg and breadcrumbs but not deep frying (which is to be expected on open fires, no idea when deep frying domestically became easy - with the Victorian range?).

    Does this sounds promising?

    https://archive.org/details/cookandhousewif03johngoog/page/134/mode/2up?q=fry+chicken
    https://archive.org/details/cookandhousewif03johngoog/page/140/mode/2up?q=fry+chicken

    BTW I read in a history of food in WW2 that the reason fried chicken is so popular in the US was it was oneof the foods that was easy for Army etc cooks to produce en masse which helped create a sort of standardised US food style.
    Yes. The guy I linked upthread makes a persuasive case that deep fried chicken is English, not Scottish

    Which matches its popularity in English-settled parts of the South
    Is this of interest?

    https://theex.com/main/food/milestones-in-deep-fried-history/the-history-of-fried-food
    Deep frying is unlikely to be a very healthy way to eat, because of how hot the oil is. A saturated fat like beef tallow is the safest; a poly-unsaturated fat like sunflower oil would be the most dangerous. However, one good thing is that the nutrients within the fish have been found to be somewhat protected from the heat because of its molecular structure. The same has not been proven for your saveloy though. Or your Mars bar. If that had any nutrients in the first place.
    Well, the tourists in Edinburgh don't know that about their DFMBs do they? Or give a toss. It's their equivalent of our travel writer having a session with a shaman. Only less authentic.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Andy_JS said:

    Tory fightback.

    "Rayner did make PMQs leg-crossing comments, Tories say"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61292313

    So it’s one Tory MPs word against Rayner .
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tory fightback.

    "Rayner did make PMQs leg-crossing comments, Tories say"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61292313

    As John Major said, 'when your back's against the wall, then it's time to turn round and fight.'
    Doesn't that mean you will be fighting a wall?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tory fightback.

    "Rayner did make PMQs leg-crossing comments, Tories say"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61292313

    As John Major said, 'when your back's against the wall, then it's time to turn round and fight.'
    Are you suggesting the Conservatives are fighting with the wall?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited May 2022
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    Then you need to propose an alternative. I’ve not seen anything convincing beyond virtue signalling and vague hand waving, which amount to: let them all come

    I saw a prediction just now that 60-70,000 might arrive this way, this year. If that is anywhere near correct it is insupportable. The numbers are tripling every year

    If we don’t find a solution now this will end with the Navy shooting at the boats to deter them, and many many drownings. No nation can allow a total loss of control of its borders
    I'm all for Quality Control on PB - but that's a rather high bar if a poster can't oppose this (imo silly and offensive) Rwanda plan unless they can solve the problem themselves.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    I read that quite a large number of migrants crossed the Channel today, after zero crossings this week (due, of course, to the triumph of the Rwandan policy). So how do we explain these crossings today? Is it because a) the Rwandan threat has begun to wane, or b) the wind direction has finally shifted from north-east to south-west? My money's strongly on b).

    I agree. 250 crossed today, according to the Mail

    So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…

    If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
    Yep. One way ticket to Rwanda please. For the lot. It's the kindest thing to prevent future hordes of dinghys. It is a Benthamite policy.
    “Notwithstanding Rwanda’s history, the world must be under no illusion as to the truth. Rwanda is hostage to the Kagame dictatorship and is more akin to a detention camp than a state where the people are sovereign.” Theogene Rudasingwa, Rwanda ambassador to USA 1996-9

    If the whole place is like a detention camp, guess what sort of treatment displaced foreigners in actual detention camps can expect?

    That doesn't invalidate your point of course, but then slowly torturing a few of them to death in Trafalgar Square would be quite a deterrent too, and might equally be "Benthamite" if you mean by that, reduce suffering overall.
    Have you looked at the photos of the hotel they are staying in? Roughly at the level of a basic tourist hotel.
    Dalle 3 prompt: a photo of a basic tourist hotel room which you sell to the terminally gullible as representing an actual Rwandan detention centre.
    So you would rather accuse the government - without evidence - of humans rights abuses? How very fair minded of you.
    Yup.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    Andy_JS said:

    Tory fightback.

    "Rayner did make PMQs leg-crossing comments, Tories say"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61292313

    In my view if Raynor did do as alleged it was a very funny and private joke. Good for her, and a very dismal thing for anyone to make capital out of it. If she didn't do as alleged then it's outrageous that it's been suggested.

    Tories again looking bloody ridiculous, and from an an entirely unforced error.
This discussion has been closed.