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The Tiverton & Honiton LDs start as odds on favourite – politicalbetting.com
The Tiverton & Honiton LDs start as odds on favourite – politicalbetting.com
Who would have thought only 6 days ago that we would be having a by-election in the Devon seat of Tiverton and Honiton with the LDs as red hot favourites? The pace and the betting has been quite extraordinary given that at GE2019 the LDs came in third 46% behind the Tories.
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Classic Louisiana seafood restaurant, and very atmospheric setting, on a narrow strip of land separating Lake Pontchartrain from Lake Maurepas, about 30 miles from New Orleans.
Another suggestion is Rocky & Carlos in Chalmette, just east of NO, very old-school bar & restaurant, semi-cafeteria really, used to love their oyster po'boys which were the BEST in the world.
Now, imagine the chaos when this AI is let loose on human faces and bodies. Because it will happen, despite all the precautions taken. This tech is too powerful to be stopped
So you could type in the prompt:
“A realistic photo of Keir Starmer gorging on caviar and cocaine in a Labour Party office, during lockdown”
Or
“A realistic photo of a naked Boris Johnson being masturbated in the Cabinet Office by three naked ballet dancers on a tractor”
Or much much worse
This is going to cause unbelievable chaos. Truth is over. Art is imperilled
The photo was taken around Jackson Sq, as I walked towards Preservation Hall. I was a bit squiffy, having been wined and dined by New Orleans Tourism, so I can’t be more precise
Will the Greens put up a fight here or effectively "pass" the seat to the LDs knowing it will be abolished within two years?
Other possibles - Sarah Wollaston, Claire Wright?
For the LDs, getting a toehold back in a region of former strength will be important for future campaigning.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/01/ukraine-war-will-not-affect-independence-poll-says-sturgeon
'Scotland elects councillors by proportional representation, making coalitions and minority administrations the norm, but Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, has ruled out deals with other parties.
“What that says to me,” she [Ms S] said, “is that Anas Sarwar is a politician deep in opposition mindset, that he is not somebody who is yet anywhere close to thinking about what it means to be in power and take responsibility”.
“In an STV election, if you have that position then you’re effectively freezing yourself in opposition.”'
Either that or Mr Sarwar is fibbing, given his support for the Labour councillors in Aberdeen in serious party trouble for joining with the Tories contrary to party policy (but condoned by Mr S when he took over as branch manager of Slab from Mr Leonard).
He might get a few majorities for Labour - but I can't see it making much difference, unless he is as I say fibbing about cooperation ("We'll cooperate with the Tories" does not gain votes); otherwise, it's a high risk approach if taken on face value.
Labour are going to get absolutely smashed in Brexiteer Wakefield, but the LDs are going to pull off another North Shropshire in Tiverton and Honiton.
This is pretty much on the same scale as North Salop, and requires significant Tory abstention.
I’d have the odds as 60% Tory, 40% LD.
> Have morning cafe au lait with beignets at Cafe du Monde, the one in the Market by Jackson Square.
> Take the St Charles streetcar at least as far as Audubon Park & back. And on the way, sign this classic New Orleans song:
They All Asked ("Axed") for You
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nCJIlOOg9Y
I went on down to the Audubon Zoo
And they all axed for you
Yeah, they all axed for you
They even inquired about ya!
The mansions on St Charles Avenue are also a must see.
Recommended reading while in NOLA: A Confederacy of Dunces.
And the fishermen Brexit Betrayal kicked in fairly early on.
Is PB being eirenic today, or are we a sack of ferrets?
Interesting stuff about how we must *not* pay any attention to the media coverage concerning Starmer / Rayner breaking the law as "there is nothing to see here", whilst it was mainly a media campaign that made the police investigate Johnson et al.
Also some quite strange coverage on this 'misogyny' stuff, and Westminster.
On Sky this morning when Anum Qaisar MP was chiselling away about how sexual harassment is a man on woman thing. She didn't seem to know that the two MPs from her Parliamentary group a week or so ago who have reportedly had sexual harassment complaints upheld against them (subject to Appeal) comprise one man Patrick Grady MP and one woman frontbencher Patricia Gibson MP, both for sexually harassing a male member of staff.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sexual-harassment-complaints-against-snp-mps-are-upheld-dlb7dfwjf
If we don't watch it we will end up with systems defined by and for people like Caroline Noakes - committee chair, rather than the all actual human beings who get sexually harassed, which includes both sexes. A serious blind spot that needs attention, there - imo.
ie politics as usual.
I imagine the LDs have a lot of sentimental interest in the SW, but all the opportunity is in the SE for them now.
Top 20 targets
12 SE
1 Midlands
1 East
1 Scotland
1 Wales
2 North
2 SW
(I have included Winchester in SE and Cheltenham in the Midlands)
Will the Tories take these campaigns reasonably seriously, do you think?
Presumably a local candidate from them.
Also recommend "Bienville's Dilemma: A Historical Geography of New Orleans" by Richard Campanella, chock-full of fascinating facts & insights.
Another good 'un is "Life of a Klansman" by Ed Ball, which is a biography (of sorts) of old-school, 19th-century KKKer from NO.
I've also heard that voice AI is coming along rapidly, and while it's not as good as impressionists yet it continues to improve and wil make it difficult for such to make a living.
(Shipping my library to New York was considered absurd but now it’s here, it’s a joy).
New Orleans is the Liverpool of America.
These cities - also Marseilles, Naples, Havana, perhaps even Hamburg - are always fascinating.
Sadly (for me), liberalism only seems to attract 10% of a modern electorate, regardless of what you call yourself.
⚡️We received confirmation of yesterday's explosion in #Izium (Eastern 🇺🇦) near 🇷🇺 headquarters. It is known that 🇷🇺 Head of General Staff Gerasimov was there to lead attack on #Sloviansk.
Large number of casualties among senior 🇷🇺 officers has been confirmed.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1520734072418545664
Wasn’t it predicted just a few days ago that sending him to Izium was tantamount to a death sentence?
It is annoying you can’t turn the iPad into a book with a cover - you have to detach the tablet - but the same keyboard turns it into a completely acceptable laptop replacement
On the whole: worth it. I’d say
On one memorable occasion, uncle came home from work to find aunt in tears. Because an couple of NO police had stopped by, because she'd wracked up an impressive number of unpaid parking tickets!
This visit upset the lady, and the fact that the cops had come to his home in his absence, questioning and scaring his wife, enraged my friends uncle.
Uncle belonged to a rather exclusive, old-school NO gentleman's club. No hanky-panky (except for some slot machines & poker playing) but with well-stocked (and well-used) bar.
Happened that the Mayor of New Orleans, deLesseps (Cheep) Morrison, was also a member. So uncle determined that he'd go down to the club, wait for His Honor to make is appearance - then shoot the son of a bitch!
My friend, a college student at the time, was staying with his uncle & aunt during a school break. He'd been out while all this was transpiring, and when he got back, his aunt told him what was going down.
So he hightailed it down to the club. When he got there, the attendants or whatever they called them, told him that "Mr Stanley" (his first name btw in Deep South fashion) was at the bar in a dangerous state. "I'm gonna killed the god-damn sonofabitch" he kept muttering into his drink(s).
Fortunately my friend was able to coax his uncle to return home BEFORE the mayor showed.
BTW, had ANOTHER friend, from somewhat different social strata, who got arrested around the same period, on suspicion for having murdered the mayor's mistress. Fortunately for him, turned out someone else had done that deed.
Huge if true.
I had some deep fried oysters last night. Hmm. Not bad. But I’d not choose to have them again. Give me them raw and salty please
I wonder if it is the heat down here. Making food go off quicker? If you deep fry something you can murder a lot of bugs and disguise a lot of rot, and deep fried food can then keep for a while…
And the double (or at least overlapping) by-elections help. One can imagine an off-the-record conversation in a gloomy Westminster bar;
"You know, it's so frustrating that we don't have the activists to put on a good show in Wakefield."
"Tell me about it, it's just the same for us in Devon."
Definitely not a deal, in case Oliver Dowden is listening. Good heavens no.
How's the war going Vlad?
As for the heat, god only knows what New Orleans was like in summer before air-con.
My aunt-in-law, who is now a celebrated children’s author, lived in Darwin for a period in the early 70s and she says half the population were literally driven insane and to alcoholism by the heat and humidity.
What a goalie is Pickford! Daft as a brush Mackem.
That said, one thing I’ve noticed is how much English heritage there is (less so, Scotland and Ireland). It is palpable, in places, in the South. A lot of English surnames, place names etc
Much more than the West or the big cities of the north
I guess this makes sense. The English settled Virginia and the Carolinas and went west from there. The Irish went to Boston and NYC
First time I ever had a raw (or any other kind) of oyster, was in French Quarter in 1973.
Just out of his school, my folks had just moved to Louisiana. Heard lot of talk about "oysters on the half shell" which sounded weird, but decided to give them a try.
So walked into Felix's Oyster Bar, then on Iberville St, just across from another famed NO oyster bar, the Acme. Anyway, I ordered a half-dozen oysters on the half-shell. Accompanied by small bowl of horseradish, with lemon and Tabasco sauce (the real deal, McIhenny's).
Tried one. Ok, had another. Finished the six - and ordered six more!
Addendum - IMHO best way to eat fried oysters, is in an oyster po'boy. "Dressed" - that is, in traditional New Orleans style with lettuce and mayo, and tabasco to taste.
Sitting at a counter with Tabasco and Saltines and a glass of cold white, watching the drunken people fall over on Bourbon St, at 2pm? Bliss
I wonder if it is shallow pan frying that was imported to the US, and latr converted to industrial deep frying?
Without wanting to bore the thread, check out “Seeds of Albion”. Every region of the USA was populated by a different region of Britain (or France) and they took their “folkways” with them…the resonances are still abundant today…
Your making me hungry - must head off for my humble breakfast!
https://deepsouthmag.com/2012/12/03/the-real-roots-of-southern-cuisine/
But this BBC article says fried chicken (at least) really does come from Britain - and probably Scotland
https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20201012-the-surprising-origin-of-fried-chicken
https://edmundstanding.wordpress.com/2018/05/30/the-english-roots-of-southern-fried-chicken/
The fact that Jefferson owned this pivotal English cookbook is quite convincing
Say it ain’t so?
Say it to DALL-E 3, trained on enough images of politicians, faces, sex toys and chickens and it will - in seconds - give you a perfectly realistic photo of Liz Truss, a strap on, and a recently satisfied hen
I joke, but this is quite serious.
Jindal is not an obvious fit for Louisiana. But the voters liked his performance, and he was re-elected in a landslide.
If Leon has any curiosity about politics, he might ask some of the folks there what they think about Jindal.
(The only modern governor I can think of who is equally improbable is Hawaii's Linda Lingle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linda_Lingle
A twice-divorced Jewish Republican born in St. Louis, and educated in California.)
And the text interpretation is also not that sophisticated (and look what a bad job it does until a human curates its output...)
Yes, it has a powerful impact, but *only* when its workings are not well understood, and when it is well curated by humans.
This from the party that did a sordid actual deal with UKIP, which may have involved trading in peerages.
Seriously, though, we need to demonstrate fried chicken US style in Scotland by say 1835 - which brings us nicely to Meg Dods Cookbook (recte by the protofeminist writer and editor Christian Johnstone AIUI). I can find broiling and/or shallow frying of chicken, veal etc. sometimes in egg and breadcrumbs but not deep frying (which is to be expected on open fires, no idea when deep frying domestically became easy - with the Victorian range?).
Does this sounds promising?
https://archive.org/details/cookandhousewif03johngoog/page/134/mode/2up?q=fry+chicken
https://archive.org/details/cookandhousewif03johngoog/page/140/mode/2up?q=fry+chicken
BTW I read in a history of food in WW2 that the reason fried chicken is so popular in the US was it was oneof the foods that was easy for Army etc cooks to produce en masse which helped create a sort of standardised US food style.
“DALL-E is crazy impressive.
But I’m getting a feel for what it can and can’t do, and there are some quite noticeable limitations you won’t see on the curated publicised examples (including my own).
So, 8 limitations of DALL-E, a thread:
(also, have a #dalle koala doing magic)”
https://twitter.com/benjamin_hilton/status/1520032772072607747?s=21&t=l9F7HfEBemfJY_XgjSfkEQ
It is clearly far from perfect. As are human artists. However some of these limitations are built-in - anything to do with human faces, body parts, etc
Imagine DALL-E 3 or 4 with these shackles removed…
Which matches its popularity in English-settled parts of the South
Will we see the old wind direction indicator from the Admiralty Board Room put up in the COBR?
https://www.bl.uk/collection-items/illustration-of-the-board-room-of-the-admiralty
BTW a prediction, the likes of banksy and tracey Emin will when they get access to it produce art which will sell for squillions where their only input is the instruction.
So this is it. Patel’s test. She needs to fly quite a few people to Rwanda to deter others, unless of course her plan was all bluster…
If she fails, and they keep coming, I suggest her career is over. She can’t dodge the issue any more
https://theex.com/main/food/milestones-in-deep-fried-history/the-history-of-fried-food
Must be a terrifying time to be a 2nd tier artist: a graphic designer or a cartoonist or an illustrator
I have artistic friends who are mentally allergic to this. They refuse to believe it is happening and get darkly emotional when it is discussed
Go and look at any of this art in the flesh and it becomes a thousand times more subtle, textured, and interesting as the light reflects off brush strokes as you move around it.
In 2017 Lab got 15,670 votes (27.1%) compared to 4,639 for LDs (8%)
SKS slipping to 3rd says all there is to say about his Leadership.
His whole strategy is based on attracting disaffected Tories should be loads of those at this By Election
Maybe I shouldn't suggest it in case anyone gets ideas...
You might, in theory, be able to supply Ukraine with sufficient super anti-ship missiles that they can sink all the Russian warships in the Black Sea, but there would still be ship mines to contend with, and Ukraine has no minesweepers.
The actual suffers of harassment and abuse are in the wrong. They should know their place. And fuck off to the back of the bus, to leave room for Proper People to pontificate on their behalf.