"11 Ukrainian pilots are currently taking F-16 training courses. "It is just a pleasure to operate such a machine! Absolutely new philosophy of flight, incredible avionics, everything the pilot may need," says one of the Ukrainian pilots."
And a followup: "A lot of F-16s to be provided to Ukraine within the frameworks of Lend-Lease Act of 2022. Game changers on the way to Ukraine."
Quite big news atm, in several ways: training has already started; it looks as though the US are willing to let them fly F16s; and the Ukrainians can spare pilots.
NATO seems increasingly confident that they can take on Russia almost directly, and defang her. Without kicking off WW3?
If the Brexit inflation thing is even vaguely true, it would suggest the UK economy is pretty insensitive to the energy crisis and post-Covid V shaped boom.
Either Brexit has had no real impact on inflation, or the UK economy is far more resilient than the EUs. Or something in between.
(1) The UK is not insensitive to the price of imported energy. We import lots of oil and gas, and a trebling of the price of gas (and a doubling of oil) comes straight off GDP as the net imports number changes. The UK, however, does import less energy than most EU countries (Italy is the worst IIRC), and therefore should have a smaller impact on economic growth than others.
(2) The impact on UK GDP is likely to worsen in Q2. Most people have not seen their utility bills shoot up yet. But they will. When they do, most households will see a high single digit reduction in disposable income. (And price rises here are probably going to be worse in the UK than in EU countries other than Italy and Germany.) This will mean that Brits will spend less money on domestic services, which will have a knock on effect throughout the economy.
Has Leon been to the British Virgin Islands? Just asking because it happens to be in the news today.
I'm sure he has although for him it sounds pretty tame. I have; I took a bareboat charter from Tortola for a couple of weeks and it was fantastic. Very lux-y; not Leon's cup of tea at all.
Mate, I flew Concorde to Barbados
God you're old.
Concorde was still flying to Barbados in 2001. I know because it used to fly past my house and it was *very* loud. On the BVI, which I visited on many occasions, I can't say that the latest revelations are very surprising. The whole place is dodgy AF.
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
🤣 . .
You seem in a bit of a tangle here. Ask yourself your own question: if they are in the pocket of the tories why would they do this?
Lady Mone has an awfully Arcuri look about her.
Yeah I admit I have a tangle to untingle today. I was under impression police are in perder ahead of the elections, can’t issue any more Downing St fines until after voting etc so same police raiding homes of Tory politicians on eve of voting sits awkward with that?
Pre-election purdah does not and should not apply to law enforcement.
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
🤣 . .
You seem in a bit of a tangle here. Ask yourself your own question: if they are in the pocket of the tories why would they do this?
Lady Mone has an awfully Arcuri look about her.
Yeah I admit I have a tangle to untingle today. I was under impression police are in perder ahead of the elections, can’t issue any more Downing St fines until after voting etc so same police raiding homes of Tory politicians on eve of voting sits awkward with that?
Yes, the Met Police are claiming that purdah applies to them. Which is a remarkable new interpretation of the law, and which occasioned some, erm, surprise when it was announced.
Its is an interesting decision, and tbh I think it is correct. The events are trivial and in the past. They can all be announced on May 7th or whenever.
Beg to differ. We can't have delays in law enforcement, especially when they confirm previous evidence of favouritism (delays; use of email questionnaires). The law has to be enforced without favouritism.
Normally I would entirely agree, but this case is entirely political. Can you name another party or parties being investigeted for a FPN from the lockdown periods? I can't.
That argument is actually completely the wrong way round, I'd suggest.
Depends what you mean by party ... if you mean a poilitical party then the ONLY party that has been investigated is Labout (Durham). No 10 is, so far as I am aware, still the seat of GOVERNMENT unless the Tories have taken over even more than I had realised. So it is Government and Civil Service that are being investigated.
Party as in fun, not in political party.
Ah, in that case plenty of cases of students and the like being investigated, attendees given FPNs, and organisers fined up to 10K.
The difference is partly that those were done summarily at the time - without the exaggerated delay, procrastination, deference and cringing of the Metropolitan Police to one particular category of offender.
But the point re political party ios also a good one, too, as it eliminates the purdah excuse for announcing the offences. Justice has ot be prompt and public. Remember the MPs - a Tory majority - voted in recent months* to conceal their own offences from the public.
*edit: not to do with covid but to do with wrongdoing more generally. I forget the date. But it reflects the climate of self-entitlement.
My point is that NO OTHER CASES from the lockdowns are being investigated NOW. So in my view it it a political decision to intervene. I'm not arguing its right or wrong, just that there are no students being investigated for a party in April 2020, and my folks are not going to get a FPN for having a 'bubble' that was everyone who wanted to visit.
I personally would pardon ALL FPNS etc from the period. They should never have been given in the first place.
FPNs aren't the point. If for a position of political balance Durham Police were to issue Starmer, Rayner and Foy with FPNs I suspect they could all decline them on the basis they were attending a work event. Would the CPS pursue a case in the face of such a denial? I doubt it.
Back to Johnson's multiple events. Could the CPS have grounds for a successful prosecution in the face of Johnson denials from what we already know? Probably.
None of that really matters. What does matter is Johnson set the rules, Johnson broke the rules and on multiple occasions. That in itself is pretty damning, but the killer blow is Johnson lied, and to Parliament. The Ministerial Code was broken and in that event earlier precedents have been set.
As ever we are going round in circles. I was responding about why I believe the police keeping schtum until after the locals was the right thing to do, as the partygate investigation, in my opinion, is politically motivated. I believe this because no other events from that time involving say students, or offices or my parents will ever by investigated.
This is not about the right/wrong of the FPN's at all. Those involved should hang their heads in shame (if they had any). Rather it is why it is appropriate for the police to hold their silence for a week or two (which will be hard for them as they leak almost as badly as the government).
The Russian soldiers have behaved like barbarians. However, you have to feel some sympathy in this video, particularly with the music that it has been put to. The fact also that they are not in any armoured vehicle makes it hit much closer to home that these are people who are dying. The harsh reality of war.
The second one showed them in a typical car, not an army vehicle. They had clearly looted it from a Ukrainian family, who had been forced to flee their homes. Any moral Russian soldier should surrender to the Ukrainians. Those that don't get no sympathy from me.
That’s young men dying in a stupid war they didn’t choose
Every man’s death diminishes me….
What about this - setup an Underground Railroad for Russian soldiers who want out of the war. Send them to Sunny Beach in Bulgaria, where their stay gets paid for until the war is over, in an all inclusive hotel.
Probably cheaper than the cost of killing them, in terms of munitions.
The Ukrainians are already treating all Russian soldiers that surrender to them well. Unlike what is happening the other way round. For those Russians that continue to kill, loot, rape and torture an innocent population, they deserve to die. I hope the Russian army gets completely depleted, and they get reduced to being a fourth rate military power.
I meant, really, really make it a good deal. No prison, or detention - just a long, long holiday on a warm beach. With free drinks.
"11 Ukrainian pilots are currently taking F-16 training courses. "It is just a pleasure to operate such a machine! Absolutely new philosophy of flight, incredible avionics, everything the pilot may need," says one of the Ukrainian pilots."
And a followup: "A lot of F-16s to be provided to Ukraine within the frameworks of Lend-Lease Act of 2022. Game changers on the way to Ukraine."
Quite big news atm, in several ways: training has already started; it looks as though the US are willing to let them fly F16s; and the Ukrainians can spare pilots.
IIRC @Dura_Ace was saying that the conversion course to F15 takes a serious number of months. Surely that would be similar for F16?
I guess is depends: how quickly can you get 80% proficient?
If the Brexit inflation thing is even vaguely true, it would suggest the UK economy is pretty insensitive to the energy crisis and post-Covid V shaped boom.
Either Brexit has had no real impact on inflation, or the UK economy is far more resilient than the EUs. Or something in between.
No, you haven’t understood.
The world is going through an inflation spike, caused by a Covid supply shock and exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts (like the IMF) are predicting inflation will decline in time, but less so in the UK where inflation is expected to be more persistent for longer.
How does that make any sense? Any price increase from Brexit would be a one time increase from extra bureaucracy costs. It wouldn't continue to increase the cost of things year after year.
The Russian soldiers have behaved like barbarians. However, you have to feel some sympathy in this video, particularly with the music that it has been put to. The fact also that they are not in any armoured vehicle makes it hit much closer to home that these are people who are dying. The harsh reality of war.
The second one showed them in a typical car, not an army vehicle. They had clearly looted it from a Ukrainian family, who had been forced to flee their homes. Any moral Russian soldier should surrender to the Ukrainians. Those that don't get no sympathy from me.
That’s young men dying in a stupid war they didn’t choose
Every man’s death diminishes me….
What about this - setup an Underground Railroad for Russian soldiers who want out of the war. Send them to Sunny Beach in Bulgaria, where their stay gets paid for until the war is over, in an all inclusive hotel.
Probably cheaper than the cost of killing them, in terms of munitions.
The Ukrainians are already treating all Russian soldiers that surrender to them well. Unlike what is happening the other way round. For those Russians that continue to kill, loot, rape and torture an innocent population, they deserve to die. I hope the Russian army gets completely depleted, and they get reduced to being a fourth rate military power.
Longer-term, the West would desire Russia to be inside NATO.
I’m very encouraged, both by Truss’s clarification of Western aims, and by the analysis from several sources suggesting that Russia has screwed up its Eastern manoeuvre and that Crimea may even shortly come into play.
A good morning.
What's the evidence that Crimea might 'come in to play'?
Contained in one of the Twitter threads posted earlier. I can’t find it now.
Essence was that Ukraine have destroyed some key supply lines between Crimea and the mainland on the Western side, and that Crimea is now vulnerable to a push south by Ukrainian forces.
Some of the commentators out there seem to think that after the regrouping in the East, the Russians have one offensive of capability left. If that doesn't work, they will really need to find some reserves. Apparently.
If the Brexit inflation thing is even vaguely true, it would suggest the UK economy is pretty insensitive to the energy crisis and post-Covid V shaped boom.
Either Brexit has had no real impact on inflation, or the UK economy is far more resilient than the EUs. Or something in between.
No, you haven’t understood.
The world is going through an inflation spike, caused by a Covid supply shock and exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts (like the IMF) are predicting inflation will decline in time, but less so in the UK where inflation is expected to be more persistent for longer.
How does that make any sense? Any price increase from Brexit would be a one time increase from extra bureaucracy costs. It wouldn't continue to increase the cost of things year after year.
I dunno, I’m just telling you what the IMF is saying. Having said that, trade friction is not “one time”.
"11 Ukrainian pilots are currently taking F-16 training courses. "It is just a pleasure to operate such a machine! Absolutely new philosophy of flight, incredible avionics, everything the pilot may need," says one of the Ukrainian pilots."
And a followup: "A lot of F-16s to be provided to Ukraine within the frameworks of Lend-Lease Act of 2022. Game changers on the way to Ukraine."
Quite big news atm, in several ways: training has already started; it looks as though the US are willing to let them fly F16s; and the Ukrainians can spare pilots.
NATO seems increasingly confident that they can take on Russia almost directly, and defang her. Without kicking off WW3?
🙏
You have summed it up perfectly, that is exactly the change of thinking now from Pentagon and Truss and Wallace this week, quite a change from the opening week of the war. To say the Wests strategy has been exactly the same all along is wrong, it has changed to now be exactly how you described.
I Don’t know what the actual detail is though on what Truss promised and Wallace agreed with? Did she mean kicked out of Crimea too? If so, what stops Russia from continually fighting back? War without end?
Surely they can only mean Putin begs for peace and surrenders borders in peace agreement in return for lifting of sanctions and end to the war? How else is what Truss promised achievable? 🤔
If the Brexit inflation thing is even vaguely true, it would suggest the UK economy is pretty insensitive to the energy crisis and post-Covid V shaped boom.
Either Brexit has had no real impact on inflation, or the UK economy is far more resilient than the EUs. Or something in between.
No, you haven’t understood.
The world is going through an inflation spike, caused by a Covid supply shock and exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts (like the IMF) are predicting inflation will decline in time, but less so in the UK where inflation is expected to be more persistent for longer.
How does that make any sense? Any price increase from Brexit would be a one time increase from extra bureaucracy costs. It wouldn't continue to increase the cost of things year after year.
I don't know what it says, but you could posit a situation where a structurally worse position for British exports means the pound is under pressure, and therefore (given how dependent Britain is on imports) structurally higher inflation.
Personally, I'd be surprised if it had much effect. But it's not impossible.
Has Leon been to the British Virgin Islands? Just asking because it happens to be in the news today.
I'm sure he has although for him it sounds pretty tame. I have; I took a bareboat charter from Tortola for a couple of weeks and it was fantastic. Very lux-y; not Leon's cup of tea at all.
I flew there with the Antilies Airboat in an ex WW2 Grumman Goose. They landed in the harbour and taxied up the slipway.
The plane fell apart after a sea landing with engine failure a year or so later. It was a very eccentric airline.
I've just changed my mind on the ID argument (only joking). My Dad (96) no longer has a driving licence nor passport and frankly he shouldn't be let anywhere near a polling station. He makes HYUFD look positively liberal.
He sounds a stout yeoman and hearty good fellow.
We'll arrange a car to the polling station for him!
The Russian soldiers have behaved like barbarians. However, you have to feel some sympathy in this video, particularly with the music that it has been put to. The fact also that they are not in any armoured vehicle makes it hit much closer to home that these are people who are dying. The harsh reality of war.
The second one showed them in a typical car, not an army vehicle. They had clearly looted it from a Ukrainian family, who had been forced to flee their homes. Any moral Russian soldier should surrender to the Ukrainians. Those that don't get no sympathy from me.
That’s young men dying in a stupid war they didn’t choose
Every man’s death diminishes me….
What about this - setup an Underground Railroad for Russian soldiers who want out of the war. Send them to Sunny Beach in Bulgaria, where their stay gets paid for until the war is over, in an all inclusive hotel.
Probably cheaper than the cost of killing them, in terms of munitions.
The Ukrainians are already treating all Russian soldiers that surrender to them well. Unlike what is happening the other way round. For those Russians that continue to kill, loot, rape and torture an innocent population, they deserve to die. I hope the Russian army gets completely depleted, and they get reduced to being a fourth rate military power.
I think that other than their nukes, they already are a fourth rate military power. Their armour and equipment are generally crap, their logistics awful and their special forces turn out to be about as effective as Saddam's much over-hyped Revolutionary guard. Doesn't mean they are not to be feared to some extent, just a great deal less than we thought.
"11 Ukrainian pilots are currently taking F-16 training courses. "It is just a pleasure to operate such a machine! Absolutely new philosophy of flight, incredible avionics, everything the pilot may need," says one of the Ukrainian pilots."
And a followup: "A lot of F-16s to be provided to Ukraine within the frameworks of Lend-Lease Act of 2022. Game changers on the way to Ukraine."
Quite big news atm, in several ways: training has already started; it looks as though the US are willing to let them fly F16s; and the Ukrainians can spare pilots.
Oh hell yeah, if that’s true.
The Ukranian Air Force do seem to have been rather quiet from an offensive point of view, I did wonder to myself if maybe they had sent a lot of pilots abroad for type ratings on Western planes.
There’s hundreds of F-16s available, if the Ukranians can fly them.
If the Brexit inflation thing is even vaguely true, it would suggest the UK economy is pretty insensitive to the energy crisis and post-Covid V shaped boom.
Either Brexit has had no real impact on inflation, or the UK economy is far more resilient than the EUs. Or something in between.
No, you haven’t understood.
The world is going through an inflation spike, caused by a Covid supply shock and exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts (like the IMF) are predicting inflation will decline in time, but less so in the UK where inflation is expected to be more persistent for longer.
How does that make any sense? Any price increase from Brexit would be a one time increase from extra bureaucracy costs. It wouldn't continue to increase the cost of things year after year.
I dunno, I’m just telling you what the IMF is saying. Having said that, trade friction is not “one time”.
Even if trade friction is ongoing that doesn't cause persistent inflation. The trade friction would have to increase repeatedly.
Talking of private islands, as we often do, I once had my own island in the Maldives. Literally. I was the only person on the island, for a night. The hotel built me a bed then departed, the staff stayed on a boat a mile offshore in case of pirates
Are you sure someone wasn't just trying to tell you something?
If the Brexit inflation thing is even vaguely true, it would suggest the UK economy is pretty insensitive to the energy crisis and post-Covid V shaped boom.
Either Brexit has had no real impact on inflation, or the UK economy is far more resilient than the EUs. Or something in between.
No, you haven’t understood.
The world is going through an inflation spike, caused by a Covid supply shock and exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts (like the IMF) are predicting inflation will decline in time, but less so in the UK where inflation is expected to be more persistent for longer.
How does that make any sense? Any price increase from Brexit would be a one time increase from extra bureaucracy costs. It wouldn't continue to increase the cost of things year after year.
I don't know what it says, but you could posit a situation where a structurally worse position for British exports means the pound is under pressure, and therefore (given how dependent Britain is on imports) structurally higher inflation.
Personally, I'd be surprised if it had much effect. But it's not impossible.
The IMF’s latest projections for the current account balance is a deficit in 2021 of -2.6% with a forecast of -5.5% in 2022, then -4.8% in 2023 (advanced economy averages -0.7%, -0.1% and 0% respectively).
Chris Grey again - “It’s worth recalling the furore caused before the referendum when the then Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, warned of his concern that Brexit could test the UK’s reliance on “the kindness of strangers” to fund its current account deficit. At that time, the UK deficit was understood to be -3.7%”
Neil Parish named as Tory MP caught watching pornography. The MP for Tiverton and Honiton has had the whip removed after being accused of watching pornography in the Commons
The Russian soldiers have behaved like barbarians. However, you have to feel some sympathy in this video, particularly with the music that it has been put to. The fact also that they are not in any armoured vehicle makes it hit much closer to home that these are people who are dying. The harsh reality of war.
The second one showed them in a typical car, not an army vehicle. They had clearly looted it from a Ukrainian family, who had been forced to flee their homes. Any moral Russian soldier should surrender to the Ukrainians. Those that don't get no sympathy from me.
That’s young men dying in a stupid war they didn’t choose
Every man’s death diminishes me….
What about this - setup an Underground Railroad for Russian soldiers who want out of the war. Send them to Sunny Beach in Bulgaria, where their stay gets paid for until the war is over, in an all inclusive hotel.
Probably cheaper than the cost of killing them, in terms of munitions.
Even cheaper when Russian goons put Novichok on the hotel door handles.....
"11 Ukrainian pilots are currently taking F-16 training courses. "It is just a pleasure to operate such a machine! Absolutely new philosophy of flight, incredible avionics, everything the pilot may need," says one of the Ukrainian pilots."
And a followup: "A lot of F-16s to be provided to Ukraine within the frameworks of Lend-Lease Act of 2022. Game changers on the way to Ukraine."
Quite big news atm, in several ways: training has already started; it looks as though the US are willing to let them fly F16s; and the Ukrainians can spare pilots.
NATO seems increasingly confident that they can take on Russia almost directly, and defang her. Without kicking off WW3?
🙏
You have summed it up perfectly, that is exactly the change of thinking now from Pentagon and Truss and Wallace this week, quite a change from the opening week of the war. To say the Wests strategy has been exactly the same all along is wrong, it has changed to now be exactly how you described.
I Don’t know what the actual detail is though on what Truss promised and Wallace agreed with? Did she mean kicked out of Crimea too? If so, what stops Russia from continually fighting back? War without end?
Surely they can only mean Putin begs for peace and surrenders borders in peace agreement in return for lifting of sanctions and end to the war? How else is what Truss promised achievable? 🤔
Ukraine should get the Black Sea coast down to Putin's Palace in Gelendzhik.
Neil Parish named as Tory MP caught watching pornography. The MP for Tiverton and Honiton has had the whip removed after being accused of watching pornography in the Commons
I’m very encouraged, both by Truss’s clarification of Western aims, and by the analysis from several sources suggesting that Russia has screwed up its Eastern manoeuvre and that Crimea may even shortly come into play.
A good morning.
What's the evidence that Crimea might 'come in to play'?
Contained in one of the Twitter threads posted earlier. I can’t find it now.
Essence was that Ukraine have destroyed some key supply lines between Crimea and the mainland on the Western side, and that Crimea is now vulnerable to a push south by Ukrainian forces.
It would be a wonderful irony if Putin lost Crimea.
I’m very encouraged, both by Truss’s clarification of Western aims, and by the analysis from several sources suggesting that Russia has screwed up its Eastern manoeuvre and that Crimea may even shortly come into play.
A good morning.
What's the evidence that Crimea might 'come in to play'?
As presented, one destroyed railway bridge and a lot of wishcasting.
The battle between Kherson and Mykolaiv has been in a state of dynamic equilibrium for a while, with each side trading gains across a fluid frontline. Retaking the city looks to be some distance away, and the Russians will blow the bridge if they lose the city, making it harder for the Ukrainians to advance further east.
Ukraine have recently made most progress around Kharkiv. They're more likely to head east from there to threaten the supply lines to Izium, than they are to threaten Crimea.
Neil Parish named as Tory MP caught watching pornography. The MP for Tiverton and Honiton has had the whip removed after being accused of watching pornography in the Commons
I’m very encouraged, both by Truss’s clarification of Western aims, and by the analysis from several sources suggesting that Russia has screwed up its Eastern manoeuvre and that Crimea may even shortly come into play.
A good morning.
What's the evidence that Crimea might 'come in to play'?
Contained in one of the Twitter threads posted earlier. I can’t find it now.
Essence was that Ukraine have destroyed some key supply lines between Crimea and the mainland on the Western side, and that Crimea is now vulnerable to a push south by Ukrainian forces.
It would be a wonderful irony if Putin lost Crimea.
If the Brexit inflation thing is even vaguely true, it would suggest the UK economy is pretty insensitive to the energy crisis and post-Covid V shaped boom.
Either Brexit has had no real impact on inflation, or the UK economy is far more resilient than the EUs. Or something in between.
No, you haven’t understood.
The world is going through an inflation spike, caused by a Covid supply shock and exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts (like the IMF) are predicting inflation will decline in time, but less so in the UK where inflation is expected to be more persistent for longer.
How does that make any sense? Any price increase from Brexit would be a one time increase from extra bureaucracy costs. It wouldn't continue to increase the cost of things year after year.
I dunno, I’m just telling you what the IMF is saying. Having said that, trade friction is not “one time”.
Even if trade friction is ongoing that doesn't cause persistent inflation. The trade friction would have to increase repeatedly.
Cox is a barrister. Barristers are required to work on the cab rank principle - if someone wants your services in an area of law in which you have expertise at a time when you are available and are willing to pay your standard rate, you are required to represent them. Failure to do so can result in you being struck off......
Just returning to this, as it's been troubling me all day.
The principle is an admirable one, and serves as much to protect lawyers from persecution for doing their job, as it does prospective defendants.
However: https://www.counselmagazine.co.uk/articles/the-cab-rank-rule-ethical-choices ...However, the cab rank rule only applies to proceedings within England and Wales. It does not apply ‘if accepting the instructions would require you to do any foreign work’ (r C30.5 of the Bar Code of Conduct). ‘Foreign work’ means legal services of whatsoever nature relating to (a) court or other legal proceedings taking place or contemplated to take place outside England and Wales; or (b) if no court or other legal proceedings are taking place or contemplated, any matter or contemplated matter not subject to the law of England and Wales (s 6 of the Bar Code of Conduct). ...
https://www.offshorebvi.com/british-virgin-islands.php ...The BVI has an independent legal and judicial system based on English Common Law, with a right of final appeal to the Privy Council in London. While the legal system is primarily based on that of the Great Britain, all domestic matters are legislated locally, by the Legislative Council. This includes taxation, company laws, banking, insurance and commercial regulations, etc. Laws and regulations are often developed in consultation with the private sector....
So I call bullshit on the invocation of this principle, especially considering Cox, as a sitting MP, could easily said he was not available owing to Parliamentary commitments.
If the Brexit inflation thing is even vaguely true, it would suggest the UK economy is pretty insensitive to the energy crisis and post-Covid V shaped boom.
Either Brexit has had no real impact on inflation, or the UK economy is far more resilient than the EUs. Or something in between.
No, you haven’t understood.
The world is going through an inflation spike, caused by a Covid supply shock and exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts (like the IMF) are predicting inflation will decline in time, but less so in the UK where inflation is expected to be more persistent for longer.
How does that make any sense? Any price increase from Brexit would be a one time increase from extra bureaucracy costs. It wouldn't continue to increase the cost of things year after year.
I dunno, I’m just telling you what the IMF is saying. Having said that, trade friction is not “one time”.
Even if trade friction is ongoing that doesn't cause persistent inflation. The trade friction would have to increase repeatedly.
That is an incredible stretch. You would have to believe the pound worsens, but not enough to be obvious at first, so it doesn't get priced in quickly. Yet it's predictable by the IMF.
I’m very encouraged, both by Truss’s clarification of Western aims, and by the analysis from several sources suggesting that Russia has screwed up its Eastern manoeuvre and that Crimea may even shortly come into play.
A good morning.
What's the evidence that Crimea might 'come in to play'?
Contained in one of the Twitter threads posted earlier. I can’t find it now.
Essence was that Ukraine have destroyed some key supply lines between Crimea and the mainland on the Western side, and that Crimea is now vulnerable to a push south by Ukrainian forces.
It would be a wonderful irony if Putin lost Crimea.
Beyond funny.
I think we should resurrect the Cossack Republics.
I’m very encouraged, both by Truss’s clarification of Western aims, and by the analysis from several sources suggesting that Russia has screwed up its Eastern manoeuvre and that Crimea may even shortly come into play.
A good morning.
What's the evidence that Crimea might 'come in to play'?
Contained in one of the Twitter threads posted earlier. I can’t find it now.
Essence was that Ukraine have destroyed some key supply lines between Crimea and the mainland on the Western side, and that Crimea is now vulnerable to a push south by Ukrainian forces.
I think it this bridge. Not clear if it was partisans, or SOF or air attack.
Talking of private islands, as we often do, I once had my own island in the Maldives. Literally. I was the only person on the island, for a night. The hotel built me a bed then departed, the staff stayed on a boat a mile offshore in case of pirates
Are you sure someone wasn't just trying to tell you something?
Neil Parish named as Tory MP caught watching pornography. The MP for Tiverton and Honiton has had the whip removed after being accused of watching pornography in the Commons
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
🤣 . .
You seem in a bit of a tangle here. Ask yourself your own question: if they are in the pocket of the tories why would they do this?
Lady Mone has an awfully Arcuri look about her.
Yeah I admit I have a tangle to untingle today. I was under impression police are in perder ahead of the elections, can’t issue any more Downing St fines until after voting etc so same police raiding homes of Tory politicians on eve of voting sits awkward with that?
Pre-election purdah does not and should not apply to law enforcement.
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
🤣 . .
You seem in a bit of a tangle here. Ask yourself your own question: if they are in the pocket of the tories why would they do this?
Lady Mone has an awfully Arcuri look about her.
Yeah I admit I have a tangle to untingle today. I was under impression police are in perder ahead of the elections, can’t issue any more Downing St fines until after voting etc so same police raiding homes of Tory politicians on eve of voting sits awkward with that?
Yes, the Met Police are claiming that purdah applies to them. Which is a remarkable new interpretation of the law, and which occasioned some, erm, surprise when it was announced.
Its is an interesting decision, and tbh I think it is correct. The events are trivial and in the past. They can all be announced on May 7th or whenever.
Beg to differ. We can't have delays in law enforcement, especially when they confirm previous evidence of favouritism (delays; use of email questionnaires). The law has to be enforced without favouritism.
Normally I would entirely agree, but this case is entirely political. Can you name another party or parties being investigeted for a FPN from the lockdown periods? I can't.
That argument is actually completely the wrong way round, I'd suggest.
Depends what you mean by party ... if you mean a poilitical party then the ONLY party that has been investigated is Labout (Durham). No 10 is, so far as I am aware, still the seat of GOVERNMENT unless the Tories have taken over even more than I had realised. So it is Government and Civil Service that are being investigated.
Party as in fun, not in political party.
Ah, in that case plenty of cases of students and the like being investigated, attendees given FPNs, and organisers fined up to 10K.
The difference is partly that those were done summarily at the time - without the exaggerated delay, procrastination, deference and cringing of the Metropolitan Police to one particular category of offender.
But the point re political party ios also a good one, too, as it eliminates the purdah excuse for announcing the offences. Justice has ot be prompt and public. Remember the MPs - a Tory majority - voted in recent months* to conceal their own offences from the public.
*edit: not to do with covid but to do with wrongdoing more generally. I forget the date. But it reflects the climate of self-entitlement.
My point is that NO OTHER CASES from the lockdowns are being investigated NOW. So in my view it it a political decision to intervene. I'm not arguing its right or wrong, just that there are no students being investigated for a party in April 2020, and my folks are not going to get a FPN for having a 'bubble' that was everyone who wanted to visit.
I personally would pardon ALL FPNS etc from the period. They should never have been given in the first place.
The only reason it's being done now is that they concealed it at the time - when the Met Police themselves knew. This is quite different from something coming to police notice now. And raises serious questions about the Met as mcuh as HMG. To drop it now would be outrageous.
If the Brexit inflation thing is even vaguely true, it would suggest the UK economy is pretty insensitive to the energy crisis and post-Covid V shaped boom.
Either Brexit has had no real impact on inflation, or the UK economy is far more resilient than the EUs. Or something in between.
No, you haven’t understood.
The world is going through an inflation spike, caused by a Covid supply shock and exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts (like the IMF) are predicting inflation will decline in time, but less so in the UK where inflation is expected to be more persistent for longer.
How does that make any sense? Any price increase from Brexit would be a one time increase from extra bureaucracy costs. It wouldn't continue to increase the cost of things year after year.
I dunno, I’m just telling you what the IMF is saying. Having said that, trade friction is not “one time”.
Even if trade friction is ongoing that doesn't cause persistent inflation. The trade friction would have to increase repeatedly.
That is an incredible stretch. You would have to believe the pound worsens, but not enough to be obvious at first, so it doesn't get priced in quickly. Yet it's predictable by the IMF.
I don’t understand your confusion.
As explained, if our terms of trade have permanently weakened, then we are more vulnerable to imported inflation.
I might not bet my house on the IMF projections, but I do understand the logic.
The Russian soldiers have behaved like barbarians. However, you have to feel some sympathy in this video, particularly with the music that it has been put to. The fact also that they are not in any armoured vehicle makes it hit much closer to home that these are people who are dying. The harsh reality of war.
The second one showed them in a typical car, not an army vehicle. They had clearly looted it from a Ukrainian family, who had been forced to flee their homes. Any moral Russian soldier should surrender to the Ukrainians. Those that don't get no sympathy from me.
That’s young men dying in a stupid war they didn’t choose
Every man’s death diminishes me….
What about this - setup an Underground Railroad for Russian soldiers who want out of the war. Send them to Sunny Beach in Bulgaria, where their stay gets paid for until the war is over, in an all inclusive hotel.
Probably cheaper than the cost of killing them, in terms of munitions.
The Ukrainians are already treating all Russian soldiers that surrender to them well. Unlike what is happening the other way round. For those Russians that continue to kill, loot, rape and torture an innocent population, they deserve to die. I hope the Russian army gets completely depleted, and they get reduced to being a fourth rate military power.
Longer-term, the West would desire Russia to be inside NATO.
That would be one idea, and far better for the population of Russia.
But it's like China wanting entry to the CBTPP - there are democratic and other standards for NATO, and market transparency for the CBTPP. That adds many barriers, and make both multi-decade projects.
I'd say that Russia needs to go through the type of programme imposed on Germany / Japan in 1945+ first, given the values brainwashed into the population / armed forces.
I’m very encouraged, both by Truss’s clarification of Western aims, and by the analysis from several sources suggesting that Russia has screwed up its Eastern manoeuvre and that Crimea may even shortly come into play.
A good morning.
What's the evidence that Crimea might 'come in to play'?
Contained in one of the Twitter threads posted earlier. I can’t find it now.
Essence was that Ukraine have destroyed some key supply lines between Crimea and the mainland on the Western side, and that Crimea is now vulnerable to a push south by Ukrainian forces.
It would be a wonderful irony if Putin lost Crimea.
Beyond funny.
I think we should resurrect the Cossack Republics.
Endeavour and Discovery are preempted (not in the RN, but still).
Also - some are somewhat dodgy politically. Endeavour and Resolution would not go down well in Australasia.
Could go for Terror or Erebus.
Not sure about the extent of controversy wrt Cook.
There has just been the 250th Anniversary, and the dustups seem quite manufactured.
Not so sure about that. Those issues are still being worked through, as with slavery in the UK. And the standard narrative that Cook 'discovered' Australia is itself seriously dodgy for obvious reasons. I would be very surprised if the Royals touch either name with a bargepole.
"11 Ukrainian pilots are currently taking F-16 training courses. "It is just a pleasure to operate such a machine! Absolutely new philosophy of flight, incredible avionics, everything the pilot may need," says one of the Ukrainian pilots."
And a followup: "A lot of F-16s to be provided to Ukraine within the frameworks of Lend-Lease Act of 2022. Game changers on the way to Ukraine."
Quite big news atm, in several ways: training has already started; it looks as though the US are willing to let them fly F16s; and the Ukrainians can spare pilots.
IIRC @Dura_Ace was saying that the conversion course to F15 takes a serious number of months. Surely that would be similar for F16?
I guess is depends: how quickly can you get 80% proficient?
The US is already thinking ahead to Ukraine's military needs in 6-12 months time. If Russia hasn't lost by then it will only get harder for them as Ukrainian F16s come into play. If the war is already done, then the defence of Ukraine is further strengthened.
It's a sign of confidence that Ukraine will still exist when the pilots are ready to fly the planes in combat.
The Russian soldiers have behaved like barbarians. However, you have to feel some sympathy in this video, particularly with the music that it has been put to. The fact also that they are not in any armoured vehicle makes it hit much closer to home that these are people who are dying. The harsh reality of war.
The second one showed them in a typical car, not an army vehicle. They had clearly looted it from a Ukrainian family, who had been forced to flee their homes. Any moral Russian soldier should surrender to the Ukrainians. Those that don't get no sympathy from me.
That’s young men dying in a stupid war they didn’t choose
Every man’s death diminishes me….
What about this - setup an Underground Railroad for Russian soldiers who want out of the war. Send them to Sunny Beach in Bulgaria, where their stay gets paid for until the war is over, in an all inclusive hotel.
Probably cheaper than the cost of killing them, in terms of munitions.
The Ukrainians are already treating all Russian soldiers that surrender to them well. Unlike what is happening the other way round. For those Russians that continue to kill, loot, rape and torture an innocent population, they deserve to die. I hope the Russian army gets completely depleted, and they get reduced to being a fourth rate military power.
Longer-term, the West would desire Russia to be inside NATO.
That would be one idea, and far better for the population of Russia.
But it's like China wanting entry to the CBTPP - there are democratic and other standards for NATO, and market transparency for the CBTPP. That adds many barriers, and make both multi-decade projects.
I'd say that Russia needs to go through the type of programme imposed on Germany / Japan in 1945+ first, given the values brainwashed into the population / armed forces.
Talking of private islands, as we often do, I once had my own island in the Maldives. Literally. I was the only person on the island, for a night. The hotel built me a bed then departed, the staff stayed on a boat a mile offshore in case of pirates
Are you sure someone wasn't just trying to tell you something?
There was a tsunami due?
I can think of a few people I'd like to drop off on an uninhabited island and tell them that it would be an enjoyable experience for them/everyone.
Has Leon been to the British Virgin Islands? Just asking because it happens to be in the news today.
I'm sure he has although for him it sounds pretty tame. I have; I took a bareboat charter from Tortola for a couple of weeks and it was fantastic. Very lux-y; not Leon's cup of tea at all.
I flew there with the Antilies Airboat in an ex WW2 Grumman Goose. They landed in the harbour and taxied up the slipway.
The plane fell apart after a sea landing with engine failure a year or so later. It was a very eccentric airline.
"The Russians are making gains but they are slow and costly, advancing only a few miles a day through the mud, the Pentagon said."
NY Times blog
I’ve been watching the gains with dread over the last week.
But the threads posted before suggest that the Ukrainians are deliberately exchanging modest territory loss for significant damage to Russian manpower and material, and that if the idea was to outflank and cut off Ukrainian forces in the east, that it looks like failing.
Maybe this is crap, but it’s nice to have an optimistic analysis.
I don't see the benefit in Labour earlier denying Rayner's presence. Particularly as the pair can't stand the sight of each other. The event still has all the hallmarks of a working late lunch with beer whether she was there or not, unless she was the one wheeling the suitcase of ale and karaoke machine from Tesco Extra...now there's a thought.
This ten times worse than Boris Johnson's lame cake incident is certainly exercising BigG. and Moonrabbit.
Maybe Sue Gray should investigate.
It’s the Labour head in the sand approach to this test that gets my goat. They want to be in government and protect our security, but they can’t even rebutt this tripe? God help them in a proper general election against Boris and his dirty trick unit.
It’s been a bit of a revelation this morning seeing the more pro-Labour voices on here saying this story was overblown, the Tories were risking having the story boomerang, everyone would see the difference etc etc. Almost as though, because BJ did something far worse, the story will get swept away. Now the BBC and Sky are on to it, others will push more
But the story IS overblown. What are the public to take from it?
"Guess what!! The deputy leader of the Labour Party -you know the one who crossed her legs- was in the room when Keir Starmer was photographed having a beer!!"
What response would the canvassers get do you suppose?
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
🤣 . .
You seem in a bit of a tangle here. Ask yourself your own question: if they are in the pocket of the tories why would they do this?
Lady Mone has an awfully Arcuri look about her.
Yeah I admit I have a tangle to untingle today. I was under impression police are in perder ahead of the elections, can’t issue any more Downing St fines until after voting etc so same police raiding homes of Tory politicians on eve of voting sits awkward with that?
Pre-election purdah does not and should not apply to law enforcement.
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
🤣 . .
You seem in a bit of a tangle here. Ask yourself your own question: if they are in the pocket of the tories why would they do this?
Lady Mone has an awfully Arcuri look about her.
Yeah I admit I have a tangle to untingle today. I was under impression police are in perder ahead of the elections, can’t issue any more Downing St fines until after voting etc so same police raiding homes of Tory politicians on eve of voting sits awkward with that?
Yes, the Met Police are claiming that purdah applies to them. Which is a remarkable new interpretation of the law, and which occasioned some, erm, surprise when it was announced.
Its is an interesting decision, and tbh I think it is correct. The events are trivial and in the past. They can all be announced on May 7th or whenever.
Beg to differ. We can't have delays in law enforcement, especially when they confirm previous evidence of favouritism (delays; use of email questionnaires). The law has to be enforced without favouritism.
Normally I would entirely agree, but this case is entirely political. Can you name another party or parties being investigeted for a FPN from the lockdown periods? I can't.
That argument is actually completely the wrong way round, I'd suggest.
Depends what you mean by party ... if you mean a poilitical party then the ONLY party that has been investigated is Labout (Durham). No 10 is, so far as I am aware, still the seat of GOVERNMENT unless the Tories have taken over even more than I had realised. So it is Government and Civil Service that are being investigated.
Party as in fun, not in political party.
Ah, in that case plenty of cases of students and the like being investigated, attendees given FPNs, and organisers fined up to 10K.
The difference is partly that those were done summarily at the time - without the exaggerated delay, procrastination, deference and cringing of the Metropolitan Police to one particular category of offender.
But the point re political party ios also a good one, too, as it eliminates the purdah excuse for announcing the offences. Justice has ot be prompt and public. Remember the MPs - a Tory majority - voted in recent months* to conceal their own offences from the public.
*edit: not to do with covid but to do with wrongdoing more generally. I forget the date. But it reflects the climate of self-entitlement.
My point is that NO OTHER CASES from the lockdowns are being investigated NOW. So in my view it it a political decision to intervene. I'm not arguing its right or wrong, just that there are no students being investigated for a party in April 2020, and my folks are not going to get a FPN for having a 'bubble' that was everyone who wanted to visit.
I personally would pardon ALL FPNS etc from the period. They should never have been given in the first place.
The only reason it's being done now is that they concealed it at the time - when the Met Police themselves knew. This is quite different from something coming to police notice now. And raises serious questions about the Met as mcuh as HMG. To drop it now would be outrageous.
One good FOI request would be as to the number of Met Police “in attendance” at the “Parties” in Downing St.
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
🤣 . .
You seem in a bit of a tangle here. Ask yourself your own question: if they are in the pocket of the tories why would they do this?
Lady Mone has an awfully Arcuri look about her.
Yeah I admit I have a tangle to untingle today. I was under impression police are in perder ahead of the elections, can’t issue any more Downing St fines until after voting etc so same police raiding homes of Tory politicians on eve of voting sits awkward with that?
Pre-election purdah does not and should not apply to law enforcement.
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
🤣 . .
You seem in a bit of a tangle here. Ask yourself your own question: if they are in the pocket of the tories why would they do this?
Lady Mone has an awfully Arcuri look about her.
Yeah I admit I have a tangle to untingle today. I was under impression police are in perder ahead of the elections, can’t issue any more Downing St fines until after voting etc so same police raiding homes of Tory politicians on eve of voting sits awkward with that?
Yes, the Met Police are claiming that purdah applies to them. Which is a remarkable new interpretation of the law, and which occasioned some, erm, surprise when it was announced.
Its is an interesting decision, and tbh I think it is correct. The events are trivial and in the past. They can all be announced on May 7th or whenever.
Beg to differ. We can't have delays in law enforcement, especially when they confirm previous evidence of favouritism (delays; use of email questionnaires). The law has to be enforced without favouritism.
Normally I would entirely agree, but this case is entirely political. Can you name another party or parties being investigeted for a FPN from the lockdown periods? I can't.
That argument is actually completely the wrong way round, I'd suggest.
Depends what you mean by party ... if you mean a poilitical party then the ONLY party that has been investigated is Labout (Durham). No 10 is, so far as I am aware, still the seat of GOVERNMENT unless the Tories have taken over even more than I had realised. So it is Government and Civil Service that are being investigated.
Party as in fun, not in political party.
Ah, in that case plenty of cases of students and the like being investigated, attendees given FPNs, and organisers fined up to 10K.
The difference is partly that those were done summarily at the time - without the exaggerated delay, procrastination, deference and cringing of the Metropolitan Police to one particular category of offender.
But the point re political party ios also a good one, too, as it eliminates the purdah excuse for announcing the offences. Justice has ot be prompt and public. Remember the MPs - a Tory majority - voted in recent months* to conceal their own offences from the public.
*edit: not to do with covid but to do with wrongdoing more generally. I forget the date. But it reflects the climate of self-entitlement.
My point is that NO OTHER CASES from the lockdowns are being investigated NOW. So in my view it it a political decision to intervene. I'm not arguing its right or wrong, just that there are no students being investigated for a party in April 2020, and my folks are not going to get a FPN for having a 'bubble' that was everyone who wanted to visit.
I personally would pardon ALL FPNS etc from the period. They should never have been given in the first place.
FPNs aren't the point. If for a position of political balance Durham Police were to issue Starmer, Rayner and Foy with FPNs I suspect they could all decline them on the basis they were attending a work event. Would the CPS pursue a case in the face of such a denial? I doubt it.
Back to Johnson's multiple events. Could the CPS have grounds for a successful prosecution in the face of Johnson denials from what we already know? Probably.
None of that really matters. What does matter is Johnson set the rules, Johnson broke the rules and on multiple occasions. That in itself is pretty damning, but the killer blow is Johnson lied, and to Parliament. The Ministerial Code was broken and in that event earlier precedents have been set.
As ever we are going round in circles. I was responding about why I believe the police keeping schtum until after the locals was the right thing to do, as the partygate investigation, in my opinion, is politically motivated. I believe this because no other events from that time involving say students, or offices or my parents will ever by investigated.
This is not about the right/wrong of the FPN's at all. Those involved should hang their heads in shame (if they had any). Rather it is why it is appropriate for the police to hold their silence for a week or two (which will be hard for them as they leak almost as badly as the government).
Absolutely right, we can’t have politically motivated police enquiries issuing such toxic headlines into the media on eve of elections, it will bastardise democracy. The Labour people on here rubbing hands saying lovely jubbly, police fines and police raids on Tories during election campaign, need to ask themselves how fair would you think it if done to you, like Hilary Clinton.
Some posters seem to think very retrospective FPN to Sunak for stumbling into a bit of cake session that should have been covid meeting is fair yet impossible to do the same retrospectively thing for beergate, how is that fair and equal? The alternative otherwise it a whiff of politically motivated beergate FPN. Whaaaaaaaaaaaat? Are you having a bubble as they say in London?
Even more laughably, some posters, RobD I think, claimed there is no link between politicians and police, no such thing as pressure on police to investigate, have resources for investigation, or suggested to hold off if timings wrong. Whaaaaaaaat? Are you having a Turkish as they say in landan? A Labour politician has sacked the top MET cop to now appoint who he prefers to have. Like no link at all?
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
🤣 . .
You seem in a bit of a tangle here. Ask yourself your own question: if they are in the pocket of the tories why would they do this?
Lady Mone has an awfully Arcuri look about her.
Yeah I admit I have a tangle to untingle today. I was under impression police are in perder ahead of the elections, can’t issue any more Downing St fines until after voting etc so same police raiding homes of Tory politicians on eve of voting sits awkward with that?
Pre-election purdah does not and should not apply to law enforcement.
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
🤣 . .
You seem in a bit of a tangle here. Ask yourself your own question: if they are in the pocket of the tories why would they do this?
Lady Mone has an awfully Arcuri look about her.
Yeah I admit I have a tangle to untingle today. I was under impression police are in perder ahead of the elections, can’t issue any more Downing St fines until after voting etc so same police raiding homes of Tory politicians on eve of voting sits awkward with that?
Yes, the Met Police are claiming that purdah applies to them. Which is a remarkable new interpretation of the law, and which occasioned some, erm, surprise when it was announced.
Its is an interesting decision, and tbh I think it is correct. The events are trivial and in the past. They can all be announced on May 7th or whenever.
Beg to differ. We can't have delays in law enforcement, especially when they confirm previous evidence of favouritism (delays; use of email questionnaires). The law has to be enforced without favouritism.
Normally I would entirely agree, but this case is entirely political. Can you name another party or parties being investigeted for a FPN from the lockdown periods? I can't.
That argument is actually completely the wrong way round, I'd suggest.
Depends what you mean by party ... if you mean a poilitical party then the ONLY party that has been investigated is Labout (Durham). No 10 is, so far as I am aware, still the seat of GOVERNMENT unless the Tories have taken over even more than I had realised. So it is Government and Civil Service that are being investigated.
Party as in fun, not in political party.
Ah, in that case plenty of cases of students and the like being investigated, attendees given FPNs, and organisers fined up to 10K.
The difference is partly that those were done summarily at the time - without the exaggerated delay, procrastination, deference and cringing of the Metropolitan Police to one particular category of offender.
But the point re political party ios also a good one, too, as it eliminates the purdah excuse for announcing the offences. Justice has ot be prompt and public. Remember the MPs - a Tory majority - voted in recent months* to conceal their own offences from the public.
*edit: not to do with covid but to do with wrongdoing more generally. I forget the date. But it reflects the climate of self-entitlement.
My point is that NO OTHER CASES from the lockdowns are being investigated NOW. So in my view it it a political decision to intervene. I'm not arguing its right or wrong, just that there are no students being investigated for a party in April 2020, and my folks are not going to get a FPN for having a 'bubble' that was everyone who wanted to visit.
I personally would pardon ALL FPNS etc from the period. They should never have been given in the first place.
The only reason it's being done now is that they concealed it at the time - when the Met Police themselves knew. This is quite different from something coming to police notice now. And raises serious questions about the Met as mcuh as HMG. To drop it now would be outrageous.
One good FOI request would be as to the number of Met Police “in attendance” at the “Parties” in Downing St.
Now that is a very good point - both at the parties, and in attendance in No 10 generally.
I don't see the benefit in Labour earlier denying Rayner's presence. Particularly as the pair can't stand the sight of each other. The event still has all the hallmarks of a working late lunch with beer whether she was there or not, unless she was the one wheeling the suitcase of ale and karaoke machine from Tesco Extra...now there's a thought.
This ten times worse than Boris Johnson's lame cake incident is certainly exercising BigG. and Moonrabbit.
Maybe Sue Gray should investigate.
It’s the Labour head in the sand approach to this test that gets my goat. They want to be in government and protect our security, but they can’t even rebutt this tripe? God help them in a proper general election against Boris and his dirty trick unit.
It’s been a bit of a revelation this morning seeing the more pro-Labour voices on here saying this story was overblown, the Tories were risking having the story boomerang, everyone would see the difference etc etc. Almost as though, because BJ did something far worse, the story will get swept away. Now the BBC and Sky are on to it, others will push more
But the story IS overblown. What are the public to take from it?
"Guess what!! The deputy leader of the Labour Party -you know the one who crossed her legs- was in the room when Keir Starmer was photographed having a beer!!"
What response would the canvassers get do you suppose?
And this took place in late April.
You know, after they relaxed lockdown and we were able to travel and go drinking again!
If the Brexit inflation thing is even vaguely true, it would suggest the UK economy is pretty insensitive to the energy crisis and post-Covid V shaped boom.
Either Brexit has had no real impact on inflation, or the UK economy is far more resilient than the EUs. Or something in between.
No, you haven’t understood.
The world is going through an inflation spike, caused by a Covid supply shock and exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts (like the IMF) are predicting inflation will decline in time, but less so in the UK where inflation is expected to be more persistent for longer.
Ahhhh thank you. Good job someone understands economics...!
I don't see the benefit in Labour earlier denying Rayner's presence. Particularly as the pair can't stand the sight of each other. The event still has all the hallmarks of a working late lunch with beer whether she was there or not, unless she was the one wheeling the suitcase of ale and karaoke machine from Tesco Extra...now there's a thought.
This ten times worse than Boris Johnson's lame cake incident is certainly exercising BigG. and Moonrabbit.
Maybe Sue Gray should investigate.
It’s the Labour head in the sand approach to this test that gets my goat. They want to be in government and protect our security, but they can’t even rebutt this tripe? God help them in a proper general election against Boris and his dirty trick unit.
It’s been a bit of a revelation this morning seeing the more pro-Labour voices on here saying this story was overblown, the Tories were risking having the story boomerang, everyone would see the difference etc etc. Almost as though, because BJ did something far worse, the story will get swept away. Now the BBC and Sky are on to it, others will push more
But the story IS overblown. What are the public to take from it?
"Guess what!! The deputy leader of the Labour Party -you know the one who crossed her legs- was in the room when Keir Starmer was photographed having a beer!!"
What response would the canvassers get do you suppose?
"The Russians are making gains but they are slow and costly, advancing only a few miles a day through the mud, the Pentagon said."
NY Times blog
I’ve been watching the gains with dread over the last week.
But the threads posted before suggest that the Ukrainians are deliberately exchanging modest territory loss for significant damage to Russian manpower and material, and that if the idea was to outflank and cut off Ukrainian forces in the east, that it looks like failing.
Maybe this is crap, but it’s nice to have an optimistic analysis.
The mud is the interesting bit. Ukraine has terrible mud this time of year as has been noted before on PB.
Yet another example of Mad Vlad invading to a timetable in his head (Victory Day parade in May) rather than reality.
I’m very encouraged, both by Truss’s clarification of Western aims, and by the analysis from several sources suggesting that Russia has screwed up its Eastern manoeuvre and that Crimea may even shortly come into play.
A good morning.
What's the evidence that Crimea might 'come in to play'?
As presented, one destroyed railway bridge and a lot of wishcasting.
The battle between Kherson and Mykolaiv has been in a state of dynamic equilibrium for a while, with each side trading gains across a fluid frontline. Retaking the city looks to be some distance away, and the Russians will blow the bridge if they lose the city, making it harder for the Ukrainians to advance further east.
Ukraine have recently made most progress around Kharkiv. They're more likely to head east from there to threaten the supply lines to Izium, than they are to threaten Crimea.
The Russians can destry the Kherson bridge, but not the Novakakhovka one as it is on top of the Dneiper dam.
If the Brexit inflation thing is even vaguely true, it would suggest the UK economy is pretty insensitive to the energy crisis and post-Covid V shaped boom.
Either Brexit has had no real impact on inflation, or the UK economy is far more resilient than the EUs. Or something in between.
No, you haven’t understood.
The world is going through an inflation spike, caused by a Covid supply shock and exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts (like the IMF) are predicting inflation will decline in time, but less so in the UK where inflation is expected to be more persistent for longer.
Ahhhh thank you. Good job someone understands economics...!
It’s less that I understand economics, it’s that I bother to go an read the links you supplied.
Something that was beyond the wit of Barty Bobbins or whatever he calls himself.
Neil Parish named as Tory MP caught watching pornography. The MP for Tiverton and Honiton has had the whip removed after being accused of watching pornography in the Commons
Lib Dems will like the look of that (the seat, not the "material") if he has to stand down. They were a narrow third last time, but will have the stronger case as challengers with a reasonable local government base.
A few steps before that, though - he's presumably looking at retirement next time anyway given his age, and there is some incentive for both him and the Conservatives to try to see out the term (albeit without the whip etc).
"The Russians are making gains but they are slow and costly, advancing only a few miles a day through the mud, the Pentagon said."
NY Times blog
I'm reminded of General Vo Nguyen Giap's four principles of war. "If the enemy advances, we retreat. If he halts, we harass. If he avoids battle we attack. If he retreats, we follow."
"The Russians are making gains but they are slow and costly, advancing only a few miles a day through the mud, the Pentagon said."
NY Times blog
I’ve been watching the gains with dread over the last week.
But the threads posted before suggest that the Ukrainians are deliberately exchanging modest territory loss for significant damage to Russian manpower and material, and that if the idea was to outflank and cut off Ukrainian forces in the east, that it looks like failing.
Maybe this is crap, but it’s nice to have an optimistic analysis.
The mud is the interesting bit. Ukraine has terrible mud this time of year as has been noted before on PB.
Yet another example of Mad Vlad invading to a timetable in his head (Victory Day parade in May) rather than reality.
The timetable appeared to start with not wanting to offend the Chinese by invading during the Olympics.
Several of us pointed out at the time, that if he delayed the invasion he was going to get three months of impenetrable mud over most of Ukraine.
Neil Parish named as Tory MP caught watching pornography. The MP for Tiverton and Honiton has had the whip removed after being accused of watching pornography in the Commons
Lib Dems will like the look of that (the seat, not the "material") if he has to stand down. They were a narrow third last time, but will have the stronger case as challengers with a reasonable local government base.
A few steps before that, though - he's presumably looking at retirement next time anyway given his age, and there is some incentive for both him and the Conservatives to try to see out the term (albeit without the whip etc).
Is it a resigning issue? I mean the guy standing at the despatch box a few feet away from him has actually broken the criminal law and is still in office.
I don't see the benefit in Labour earlier denying Rayner's presence. Particularly as the pair can't stand the sight of each other. The event still has all the hallmarks of a working late lunch with beer whether she was there or not, unless she was the one wheeling the suitcase of ale and karaoke machine from Tesco Extra...now there's a thought.
This ten times worse than Boris Johnson's lame cake incident is certainly exercising BigG. and Moonrabbit.
Maybe Sue Gray should investigate.
It’s the Labour head in the sand approach to this test that gets my goat. They want to be in government and protect our security, but they can’t even rebutt this tripe? God help them in a proper general election against Boris and his dirty trick unit.
It’s been a bit of a revelation this morning seeing the more pro-Labour voices on here saying this story was overblown, the Tories were risking having the story boomerang, everyone would see the difference etc etc. Almost as though, because BJ did something far worse, the story will get swept away. Now the BBC and Sky are on to it, others will push more
But the story IS overblown. What are the public to take from it?
"Guess what!! The deputy leader of the Labour Party -you know the one who crossed her legs- was in the room when Keir Starmer was photographed having a beer!!"
What response would the canvassers get do you suppose?
And this took place in late April.
You know, after they relaxed lockdown and we were able to travel and go drinking again!
And to do with a high profile and heavily contested by election. Neither Rayner nor Starmer would have any reason to go to a social event in Durham.
Does anyone know what genre of porn Neil Parish is accused of viewing?
Must be a spot of the old flage. I mean, we've been told he's had the whip removed.
I caught my girlfriend using a carrot once. (I didn’t actually, this is just a joke) and I went urgh! I was going to eat that later… but now it’s going to taste of carrots!
Neil Parish named as Tory MP caught watching pornography. The MP for Tiverton and Honiton has had the whip removed after being accused of watching pornography in the Commons
Lib Dems will like the look of that (the seat, not the "material") if he has to stand down. They were a narrow third last time, but will have the stronger case as challengers with a reasonable local government base.
A few steps before that, though - he's presumably looking at retirement next time anyway given his age, and there is some incentive for both him and the Conservatives to try to see out the term (albeit without the whip etc).
LD's were a very close 2nd in 1997, but there have been boundary changes.
To leaven the Member of P**n jokes - a nice Friday afternoon cheer-up story: Constable painting cleaned up. Looks like Constable was painting from Chelsea? Nice view up the |Westminster reach.
The Russian soldiers have behaved like barbarians. However, you have to feel some sympathy in this video, particularly with the music that it has been put to. The fact also that they are not in any armoured vehicle makes it hit much closer to home that these are people who are dying. The harsh reality of war.
The second one showed them in a typical car, not an army vehicle. They had clearly looted it from a Ukrainian family, who had been forced to flee their homes. Any moral Russian soldier should surrender to the Ukrainians. Those that don't get no sympathy from me.
That’s young men dying in a stupid war they didn’t choose
Every man’s death diminishes me….
What about this - setup an Underground Railroad for Russian soldiers who want out of the war. Send them to Sunny Beach in Bulgaria, where their stay gets paid for until the war is over, in an all inclusive hotel.
Probably cheaper than the cost of killing them, in terms of munitions.
The Ukrainians are already treating all Russian soldiers that surrender to them well. Unlike what is happening the other way round. For those Russians that continue to kill, loot, rape and torture an innocent population, they deserve to die. I hope the Russian army gets completely depleted, and they get reduced to being a fourth rate military power.
Longer-term, the West would desire Russia to be inside NATO.
That would be one idea, and far better for the population of Russia. And a great aspiration - one potential 'carrot' for Russia once Putin has been 'disposed of' / defenestrated? (No I don't believe it as identifiable immediately, either.)
But it's like China wanting entry to the CBTPP - there are democratic and other standards for NATO, and market transparency for the CBTPP. That adds many barriers, and make both multi-decade projects.
I'd say that Russia needs to go through the type of programme imposed on Germany / Japan in 1945+ first, given the values brainwashed into the population / armed forces.
It takes a long time to renew the culture, and completely remove links to the past.
For a comparison, the Head of the Bundeswehr up until 1966 was one of Hitler's WW2 Generals not 'tainted' by Nazism, one Heinrich Trettner. He had served in the Spanish Civil War, and in Crete, for example. And been interned post-war camp.
If the Brexit inflation thing is even vaguely true, it would suggest the UK economy is pretty insensitive to the energy crisis and post-Covid V shaped boom.
Either Brexit has had no real impact on inflation, or the UK economy is far more resilient than the EUs. Or something in between.
No, you haven’t understood.
The world is going through an inflation spike, caused by a Covid supply shock and exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts (like the IMF) are predicting inflation will decline in time, but less so in the UK where inflation is expected to be more persistent for longer.
How does that make any sense? Any price increase from Brexit would be a one time increase from extra bureaucracy costs. It wouldn't continue to increase the cost of things year after year.
I dunno, I’m just telling you what the IMF is saying. Having said that, trade friction is not “one time”.
Even if trade friction is ongoing that doesn't cause persistent inflation. The trade friction would have to increase repeatedly.
That is an incredible stretch. You would have to believe the pound worsens, but not enough to be obvious at first, so it doesn't get priced in quickly. Yet it's predictable by the IMF.
The research department of the IMF is a reasonably serious unit, with some pretty smart people.
Now, do I intuitively think the mechanism I posited will cause the UK to have structurally higher inflation? Not significantly. It's possible, but I doubt it'd be that big an issue.
On the other hand, I can think of lots of reasons why Sterling could be weak in the medium term. And because the UK has a pretty horrible structural imbalance (due to consumer spending propping up GDP), that would probably mean higher inflation medium term.
Does anyone know what genre of porn Neil Parish is accused of viewing?
Must be a spot of the old flage. I mean, we've been told he's had the whip removed.
I caught my girlfriend using a carrot once. (I didn’t actually, this is just a joke) and I went urgh! I was going to eat that later… but now it’s going to taste of carrots!
"11 Ukrainian pilots are currently taking F-16 training courses. "It is just a pleasure to operate such a machine! Absolutely new philosophy of flight, incredible avionics, everything the pilot may need," says one of the Ukrainian pilots."
And a followup: "A lot of F-16s to be provided to Ukraine within the frameworks of Lend-Lease Act of 2022. Game changers on the way to Ukraine."
Quite big news atm, in several ways: training has already started; it looks as though the US are willing to let them fly F16s; and the Ukrainians can spare pilots.
I'm all for giving Ukraine whatever it needs, but 11 F16 I don't think will change the air war, the F16 is good but its not that good that 11 would be able to defeat the hole of the Russian Airforce.
Assuming that the Ukrainians only have 11 pilots that they can send away to retrain on a new airframe, would it not be better to train them on EuroFigter/Typhoon, or something a bit better than the F16?
A ridiculous story. The prurience of this country is embarrassing
That sitting MPs ought to be allowed to watch porn without let or hindrance in the privacy of the Commons Chamber is an interesting take on the story, Roger.
Neil Parish named as Tory MP caught watching pornography. The MP for Tiverton and Honiton has had the whip removed after being accused of watching pornography in the Commons
Why can't he just come to the house, lie to it, make a half empty apology, then claim to his friends that he didn't think he had broken any rules?
I did not have sexual relations with that woman watch pornographic material, it was a short film of an artistic nature crucial to my understanding of the matter being debated.
Neil Parish named as Tory MP caught watching pornography. The MP for Tiverton and Honiton has had the whip removed after being accused of watching pornography in the Commons
Lib Dems will like the look of that (the seat, not the "material") if he has to stand down. They were a narrow third last time, but will have the stronger case as challengers with a reasonable local government base.
A few steps before that, though - he's presumably looking at retirement next time anyway given his age, and there is some incentive for both him and the Conservatives to try to see out the term (albeit without the whip etc).
I wonder how the female MPs would react to that? They were pretty stroppy at their meeting - completely fed up.
Comments
🙏 🙏 🙏 indeed.
But Google maps says that's 18 hours away.
Went for Cambois instead. Barely a dozen people over several miles of glorious sand.
(2) The impact on UK GDP is likely to worsen in Q2. Most people have not seen their utility bills shoot up yet. But they will. When they do, most households will see a high single digit reduction in disposable income. (And price rises here are probably going to be worse in the UK than in EU countries other than Italy and Germany.) This will mean that Brits will spend less money on domestic services, which will have a knock on effect throughout the economy.
This is not about the right/wrong of the FPN's at all. Those involved should hang their heads in shame (if they had any). Rather it is why it is appropriate for the police to hold their silence for a week or two (which will be hard for them as they leak almost as badly as the government).
I Don’t know what the actual detail is though on what Truss promised and Wallace agreed with? Did she mean kicked out of Crimea too? If so, what stops Russia from continually fighting back? War without end?
Surely they can only mean Putin begs for peace and surrenders borders in peace agreement in return for lifting of sanctions and end to the war? How else is what Truss promised achievable? 🤔
Personally, I'd be surprised if it had much effect. But it's not impossible.
We'll arrange a car to the polling station for him!
The Ukranian Air Force do seem to have been rather quiet from an offensive point of view, I did wonder to myself if maybe they had sent a lot of pilots abroad for type ratings on Western planes.
There’s hundreds of F-16s available, if the Ukranians can fly them.
Chris Grey again -
“It’s worth recalling the furore caused before the referendum when the then Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, warned of his concern that Brexit could test the UK’s reliance on “the kindness of strangers” to fund its current account deficit. At that time, the UK deficit was understood to be -3.7%”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/04/29/revealed-neil-parish-named-tory-mp-caught-watching-pornography/
You just know they wouldn't be able to resist.
I thought it was supposed to be a front-bencher.
The battle between Kherson and Mykolaiv has been in a state of dynamic equilibrium for a while, with each side trading gains across a fluid frontline. Retaking the city looks to be some distance away, and the Russians will blow the bridge if they lose the city, making it harder for the Ukrainians to advance further east.
Ukraine have recently made most progress around Kharkiv. They're more likely to head east from there to threaten the supply lines to Izium, than they are to threaten Crimea.
The principle is an admirable one, and serves as much to protect lawyers from persecution for doing their job, as it does prospective defendants.
However:
https://www.counselmagazine.co.uk/articles/the-cab-rank-rule-ethical-choices
...However, the cab rank rule only applies to proceedings within England and Wales. It does not apply ‘if accepting the instructions would require you to do any foreign work’ (r C30.5 of the Bar Code of Conduct). ‘Foreign work’ means legal services of whatsoever nature relating to (a) court or other legal proceedings taking place or contemplated to take place outside England and Wales; or (b) if no court or other legal proceedings are taking place or contemplated, any matter or contemplated matter not subject to the law of England and Wales (s 6 of the Bar Code of Conduct). ...
https://www.offshorebvi.com/british-virgin-islands.php
...The BVI has an independent legal and judicial system based on English Common Law, with a right of final appeal to the Privy Council in London. While the legal system is primarily based on that of the Great Britain, all domestic matters are legislated locally, by the Legislative Council. This includes taxation, company laws, banking, insurance and commercial regulations, etc. Laws and regulations are often developed in consultation with the private sector....
So I call bullshit on the invocation of this principle, especially considering Cox, as a sitting MP, could easily said he was not available owing to Parliamentary commitments.
http://www.dcstamps.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/RUS-Kuban-Cossacks-Map.png
https://twitter.com/tweet4anna/status/1519679068110823426?t=WvnjDmrKCZvVYRg84MD_eA&s=19
The Kherson one:
https://twitter.com/AS7404542949/status/1519633193724428289?t=N6MrwoqnWFcLmKKKFkH24g&s=19
As explained, if our terms of trade have permanently weakened, then we are more vulnerable to imported inflation.
I might not bet my house on the IMF projections, but I do understand the logic.
But it's like China wanting entry to the CBTPP - there are democratic and other standards for NATO, and market transparency for the CBTPP. That adds many barriers, and make both multi-decade projects.
I'd say that Russia needs to go through the type of programme imposed on Germany / Japan in 1945+ first, given the values brainwashed into the population / armed forces.
Consider how the Ru armed forces believed in behaving in Chechnya:
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2000-sep-17-mn-22524-story.html
A British enclave on the Black Sea would be wonderful.
It's a sign of confidence that Ukraine will still exist when the pilots are ready to fly the planes in combat.
NY Times blog
Such A Bloody Experience Never Again.
Amongst the insults, you can ascertain he was until now chair of a select committee.
Which, out of consideration for OGH, I shall not repeat.
But the threads posted before suggest that the Ukrainians are deliberately exchanging modest territory loss for significant damage to Russian manpower and material, and that if the idea was to outflank and cut off Ukrainian forces in the east, that it looks like failing.
Maybe this is crap, but it’s nice to have an optimistic analysis.
"Guess what!! The deputy leader of the Labour Party -you know the one who crossed her legs- was in the room when Keir Starmer was photographed having a beer!!"
What response would the canvassers get do you suppose?
Some posters seem to think very retrospective FPN to Sunak for stumbling into a bit of cake session that should have been covid meeting is fair yet impossible to do the same retrospectively thing for beergate, how is that fair and equal? The alternative otherwise it a whiff of politically motivated beergate FPN. Whaaaaaaaaaaaat? Are you having a bubble as they say in London?
Even more laughably, some posters, RobD I think, claimed there is no link between politicians and police, no such thing as pressure on police to investigate, have resources for investigation, or suggested to hold off if timings wrong. Whaaaaaaaat? Are you having a Turkish as they say in landan? A Labour politician has sacked the top MET cop to now appoint who he prefers to have. Like no link at all?
https://twitter.com/LeChouNews/status/1520048427639447553?s=20&t=LwPJGjYjrWshLQBugBkVtQ
You know, after they relaxed lockdown and we were able to travel and go drinking again!
Yet another example of Mad Vlad invading to a timetable in his head (Victory Day parade in May) rather than reality.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/29/tory-mp-neil-parish-faces-investigation-over-claims-of-watching-pornography-in-commons
Something that was beyond the wit of Barty Bobbins or whatever he calls himself.
A few steps before that, though - he's presumably looking at retirement next time anyway given his age, and there is some incentive for both him and the Conservatives to try to see out the term (albeit without the whip etc).
The Moscow Times
@MoscowTimes
· 4h
The Kremlin said Friday that no foreign dignitaries have been invited to attend the May 9 parade.
"If the enemy advances, we retreat. If he halts, we harass. If he avoids battle we attack. If he retreats, we follow."
Several of us pointed out at the time, that if he delayed the invasion he was going to get three months of impenetrable mud over most of Ukraine.
LOL
🤣
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2022/apr/29/john-constable-painting-waterloo-bridge-conservation-national-trust
Not even the chap from Belarus? Were they worried they'd be stuck with him?
But it's like China wanting entry to the CBTPP - there are democratic and other standards for NATO, and market transparency for the CBTPP. That adds many barriers, and make both multi-decade projects.
I'd say that Russia needs to go through the type of programme imposed on Germany / Japan in 1945+ first, given the values brainwashed into the population / armed forces.
Consider how the Ru armed forces considered they were justified in behaving in Chechnya:
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2000-sep-17-mn-22524-story.html
It takes a long time to renew the culture, and completely remove links to the past.
For a comparison, the Head of the Bundeswehr up until 1966 was one of Hitler's WW2 Generals not 'tainted' by Nazism, one Heinrich Trettner. He had served in the Spanish Civil War, and in Crete, for example. And been interned post-war camp.
https://youtu.be/jqH6rmN5MsE?t=615
Now, do I intuitively think the mechanism I posited will cause the UK to have structurally higher inflation? Not significantly. It's possible, but I doubt it'd be that big an issue.
On the other hand, I can think of lots of reasons why Sterling could be weak in the medium term. And because the UK has a pretty horrible structural imbalance (due to consumer spending propping up GDP), that would probably mean higher inflation medium term.
Assuming that the Ukrainians only have 11 pilots that they can send away to retrain on a new airframe, would it not be better to train them on EuroFigter/Typhoon, or something a bit better than the F16?
In April 2022, Parish had the whip withdrawn after being accused of watching pornography in the Commons chamber.[18]
Personal life
Parish is married to Susan, has two children and two grandchildren, and a Platinum+ Brazzers Membership.[19]
have sexual relations with that womanwatch pornographic material, it was a short film of an artistic nature crucial to my understanding of the matter being debated.