Trying to think of a parallel period in British political history to where we are now in 2022.
1962.
Tories into their third term with their third consecutive PM - an Old Etonian actor manager.
Labour with a relatively new leader.
Two years later the actor-manager PM has been replaced by a new PM, who then loses, narrowly, to Labour in the 1964 General Election.
Anyone find a better match?
Agreed, the next general election will be more 1964 than 1997 if Labour do win.
2022 is unprecedented in multiple ways. We’re emerging (in’s’Allah) from an immense global plague. We face global Cold War, and European Hot War. We are on the cusp of Artificial Intelligence. Etc etc etc. The world is changing at enormous speed, possibly faster than at any time in human history
This is not ‘1964’. It is itself
1964 was just after the Cuban Missile Crisis at the height of the Cold War. There was also the growth of TV and the emergence of the computer and the Space race etc and the cultural revolution of the 1960s
Things moved quite quickly in the 1960s. That does not preclude them moving even faster now. Much faster
AI is much overblown.
This article in the Atlantic is quite interesting on Google Translate. Now don't get me wrong, Google Translate is a great tool, very useful etc. But it's a million miles away from human intelligence.
Which suggests we really are close to proper AI, if not there already
Anybody claiming GPT3 is "proper" AI, is quite frankly an idiot. Its highly impressive, as is DALLE-2, but its not intelligent. They are giant transformers. Yes that means they can create a sentence or a picture never been written or drawn before, but it has no concept of what that sentence means, if it actually makes sense, if it doesn't how to correct it, etc etc etc. They can't adapt to a changing world without total retraining of the whole giant network.
Hence, the Turing Test
You should know this. At some point (very soon, I suspect) the output of Neural Networks like GPT4 will be indistinguishable from human communication and creativity. At that juncture, the question as to whether they are actually ‘intelligent’ will become an abstruse debate for theologians and philosophers. They will appear, seem, act, speak, draw, sing, joke, create and behave as if they are humanly intelligent. They will then be, to all intents and purposes, intelligent
It will get REALLY spooky when they are obviously MORE ‘intelligent’. That’s coming, as well
Will all due respect to Turing, who was clearly a genius, his test is rubbish.
The Benpointer test is much better: AI needs to load and the dishwasher properly. Then unload it and put away all the crockery and cutlery in the right place.
Trying to think of a parallel period in British political history to where we are now in 2022.
1962.
Tories into their third term with their third consecutive PM - an Old Etonian actor manager.
Labour with a relatively new leader.
Two years later the actor-manager PM has been replaced by a new PM, who then loses, narrowly, to Labour in the 1964 General Election.
Anyone find a better match?
Agreed, the next general election will be more 1964 than 1997 if Labour do win.
2022 is unprecedented in multiple ways. We’re emerging (in’s’Allah) from an immense global plague. We face global Cold War, and European Hot War. We are on the cusp of Artificial Intelligence. Etc etc etc. The world is changing at enormous speed, possibly faster than at any time in human history
This is not ‘1964’. It is itself
1964 was just after the Cuban Missile Crisis at the height of the Cold War. There was also the growth of TV and the emergence of the computer and the Space race etc and the cultural revolution of the 1960s
Things moved quite quickly in the 1960s. That does not preclude them moving even faster now. Much faster
AI is much overblown.
This article in the Atlantic is quite interesting on Google Translate. Now don't get me wrong, Google Translate is a great tool, very useful etc. But it's a million miles away from human intelligence.
Which suggests we really are close to proper AI, if not there already
Anybody claiming GPT3 is "proper" AI, is quite frankly an idiot. Its highly impressive, as is DALLE-2, but its not intelligent. They are giant transformers. Yes that means they can create a sentence or a picture never been written or drawn before, but it has no concept of what that sentence means, if it actually makes sense, if it doesn't how to correct it, etc etc etc. They can't adapt to a changing world without total retraining of the whole giant network.
Hence, the Turing Test
You should know this. At some point (very soon, I suspect) the output of Neural Networks like GPT4 will be indistinguishable from human communication and creativity. At that juncture, the question as to whether they are actually ‘intelligent’ will become an abstruse debate for theologians and philosophers. They will appear, seem, act, speak, draw, sing, joke, create and behave as if they are humanly intelligent. They will then be, to all intents and purposes, intelligent
It will get REALLY spooky when they are obviously MORE ‘intelligent’. That’s coming, as well
The Turing Test is just a really weak stipulation, not a test (and one which has been passed. I asked an online chat thing with my bank "Are you human?" the other day, quite well in to the chat, because I genuinely couldn't tell). Google Chinese Room to see why.
The eminent economist Adam Posen this week estimated that 80% of UK inflation is attributable to Brexit…
…As Posen pungently expressed it, the UK is “running a natural experiment in what happens when you run a trade war on yourself”. The results so far, his data also suggest, show just how damaging it is…
… Thus, faced with a burgeoning economic crisis, this post-Brexit government is bereft of workable ideas. Its flagship policy has proved an economic dud, but it is inherent in the government’s very formation to be unable to admit that, or to produce any policies that might ameliorate it. Having smashed up the old order, all they can do is stare in slack-jawed bemusement at the rubble around them, like a convention of peculiarly vandalistic village idiots who accidentally got control of a wrecking-ball...
… Meanwhile, the astonishingly dangerous political trick the government used to ‘get Brexit done’ has blown up in its face. That, of course, was agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) which it is clear the government never intended to honour, and which it sold to its MPs as a supposedly temporary measure. Yet, at the very same time, it was sold to the electorate as part of the ’oven-ready deal’ which would put an end to all the boring Brexit wrangling. Worse still, it was signed as an international treaty with the EU, which certainly didn’t regard it as temporary, any more than does the US.
This was done quite knowingly and entirely cynically, and it’s very difficult to think of any equivalent trickery in modern British political history in terms of that combination of national and international dishonesty. Not only was it dishonest, it was actually – I don’t use this word casually – wicked in that the patsy in this trick was, and is, the people of Northern Ireland and the fragile politics of their hard-won peace…
After savaging the NI shenanigans he concludes:
And so it goes on, year after year after wretched year. All the fantasies, lies and denials that permeated the dreadful referendum campaign six long years ago are still running into the rock of the realities of international trade and international relations. The government has no solutions because it has never been a government in any real sense of the term, just a vehicle for precisely the fantasies and denials of that campaign.
Sounds like a bitter Remoaner though, so all that can probably be safely ignored.
UK inflation rate 6.2%
If 80% of that is attributable to Brexit, then that means baseline inflation ought to be 1.2% with Brexit contributing 5.0% of inflation.
While its not a direct control group, its close enough to check against the Eurozone for comparison. Their current inflation rate is 7.5%
Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 1.2%? Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 6.2%?
No can't be safely ignored, should be roundly ridiculed instead.
I wish I could pronounce so authoritatively on such a wide range of intricate specialisms as you do. I doff my cap to an intellectual titan.
But it’s fucking obvious. Why is the French inflation rate 5.4%? Why is the German inflation rate 7.3%? Why is the American inflation rate 8.5%?
Did they all exit the European Union or is that guy you cite a screaming Remoaner moron almost as stupid as you?
Trying to think of a parallel period in British political history to where we are now in 2022.
1962.
Tories into their third term with their third consecutive PM - an Old Etonian actor manager.
Labour with a relatively new leader.
Two years later the actor-manager PM has been replaced by a new PM, who then loses, narrowly, to Labour in the 1964 General Election.
Anyone find a better match?
Agreed, the next general election will be more 1964 than 1997 if Labour do win.
2022 is unprecedented in multiple ways. We’re emerging (in’s’Allah) from an immense global plague. We face global Cold War, and European Hot War. We are on the cusp of Artificial Intelligence. Etc etc etc. The world is changing at enormous speed, possibly faster than at any time in human history
This is not ‘1964’. It is itself
1964 was just after the Cuban Missile Crisis at the height of the Cold War. There was also the growth of TV and the emergence of the computer and the Space race etc and the cultural revolution of the 1960s
Things moved quite quickly in the 1960s. That does not preclude them moving even faster now. Much faster
AI is much overblown.
This article in the Atlantic is quite interesting on Google Translate. Now don't get me wrong, Google Translate is a great tool, very useful etc. But it's a million miles away from human intelligence.
Which suggests we really are close to proper AI, if not there already
Anybody claiming GPT3 is "proper" AI, is quite frankly an idiot. Its highly impressive, as is DALLE-2, but its not intelligent. They are giant transformers. Yes that means they can create a sentence or a picture never been written or drawn before, but it has no concept of what that sentence means, if it actually makes sense, if it doesn't how to correct it, etc etc etc. They can't adapt to a changing world without total retraining of the whole giant network.
You need to approach this question from both directions. You may think human intelligence is something other than applying some algorithms to a lot of data and spewing out the result, but you need to make the case. There's posters here who suggest otherwise. Your only evidence, I suspect, is that it feels to you like something else is going on. The deficiencies in introspective evidence are too obvious to be worth pointing out ( but for the hard of thinking, if you think your scales are inaccurate, take something which weighs a kilo and see what your scales say. When verifying that your kilo thing weighs a kilo, do not use the scales which you are testing).
I am not going to bore a politics blog about this. I kept the explanation hand wavey on purpose. But its my specialist subject. There are huge numbers of academic papers proving they definitely don't operate in certain ways.
Trying to think of a parallel period in British political history to where we are now in 2022.
1962.
Tories into their third term with their third consecutive PM - an Old Etonian actor manager.
Labour with a relatively new leader.
Two years later the actor-manager PM has been replaced by a new PM, who then loses, narrowly, to Labour in the 1964 General Election.
Anyone find a better match?
Agreed, the next general election will be more 1964 than 1997 if Labour do win.
2022 is unprecedented in multiple ways. We’re emerging (in’s’Allah) from an immense global plague. We face global Cold War, and European Hot War. We are on the cusp of Artificial Intelligence. Etc etc etc. The world is changing at enormous speed, possibly faster than at any time in human history
This is not ‘1964’. It is itself
1964 was just after the Cuban Missile Crisis at the height of the Cold War. There was also the growth of TV and the emergence of the computer and the Space race etc and the cultural revolution of the 1960s
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
Trying to think of a parallel period in British political history to where we are now in 2022.
1962.
Tories into their third term with their third consecutive PM - an Old Etonian actor manager.
Labour with a relatively new leader.
Two years later the actor-manager PM has been replaced by a new PM, who then loses, narrowly, to Labour in the 1964 General Election.
Anyone find a better match?
Agreed, the next general election will be more 1964 than 1997 if Labour do win.
2022 is unprecedented in multiple ways. We’re emerging (in’s’Allah) from an immense global plague. We face global Cold War, and European Hot War. We are on the cusp of Artificial Intelligence. Etc etc etc. The world is changing at enormous speed, possibly faster than at any time in human history
This is not ‘1964’. It is itself
1964 was just after the Cuban Missile Crisis at the height of the Cold War. There was also the growth of TV and the emergence of the computer and the Space race etc and the cultural revolution of the 1960s
Things moved quite quickly in the 1960s. That does not preclude them moving even faster now. Much faster
AI is much overblown.
This article in the Atlantic is quite interesting on Google Translate. Now don't get me wrong, Google Translate is a great tool, very useful etc. But it's a million miles away from human intelligence.
Which suggests we really are close to proper AI, if not there already
Anybody claiming GPT3 is "proper" AI, is quite frankly an idiot. Its highly impressive, as is DALLE-2, but its not intelligent. They are giant transformers. Yes that means they can create a sentence or a picture never been written or drawn before, but it has no concept of what that sentence means, if it actually makes sense, if it doesn't how to correct it, etc etc etc. They can't adapt to a changing world without total retraining of the whole giant network.
Hence, the Turing Test
You should know this. At some point (very soon, I suspect) the output of Neural Networks like GPT4 will be indistinguishable from human communication and creativity. At that juncture, the question as to whether they are actually ‘intelligent’ will become an abstruse debate for theologians and philosophers. They will appear, seem, act, speak, draw, sing, joke, create and behave as if they are humanly intelligent. They will then be, to all intents and purposes, intelligent
It will get REALLY spooky when they are obviously MORE ‘intelligent’. That’s coming, as well
And the learning will accelerate with robot evolution...
https://twitter.com/ThomasPride/status/1519898855927603201 “If I am ever asked to produce my ID card as evidence that I am who I say I am I will take that card out of my wallet and physically eat it in the presence of whatever emanation of the state has demanded that I produce it.” @BorisJohnson 2004.
Yesterday Johnson passed a law ...
... making it compulsory for voters to produce photo ID when voting.
Isn’t that opposition to ID cards rather than opposition to photo ID? Otherwise he’d have to eat his passport every time he came back from abroad.
Exactly. I'm yet to hear any justification from opponents of this change why voting should be less secure than picking up a parcel from the sorting office.
Because we want to encourage as much of the former as possible, the latter is a personal choice, and there is far more evidence of fraud in the latter than the former.
Much of this ID will turn on the "free ID". Will it be easily available? Widely publicised? Or will it be a bureaucratic quagmire involving travel to Council HQ (more than 2 hours by public transport in much of Northumberland) with a stack of paperwork? I can guess.
If we must have it, then print a photo on polling cards. Job done.
The eminent economist Adam Posen this week estimated that 80% of UK inflation is attributable to Brexit…
…As Posen pungently expressed it, the UK is “running a natural experiment in what happens when you run a trade war on yourself”. The results so far, his data also suggest, show just how damaging it is…
… Thus, faced with a burgeoning economic crisis, this post-Brexit government is bereft of workable ideas. Its flagship policy has proved an economic dud, but it is inherent in the government’s very formation to be unable to admit that, or to produce any policies that might ameliorate it. Having smashed up the old order, all they can do is stare in slack-jawed bemusement at the rubble around them, like a convention of peculiarly vandalistic village idiots who accidentally got control of a wrecking-ball...
… Meanwhile, the astonishingly dangerous political trick the government used to ‘get Brexit done’ has blown up in its face. That, of course, was agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) which it is clear the government never intended to honour, and which it sold to its MPs as a supposedly temporary measure. Yet, at the very same time, it was sold to the electorate as part of the ’oven-ready deal’ which would put an end to all the boring Brexit wrangling. Worse still, it was signed as an international treaty with the EU, which certainly didn’t regard it as temporary, any more than does the US.
This was done quite knowingly and entirely cynically, and it’s very difficult to think of any equivalent trickery in modern British political history in terms of that combination of national and international dishonesty. Not only was it dishonest, it was actually – I don’t use this word casually – wicked in that the patsy in this trick was, and is, the people of Northern Ireland and the fragile politics of their hard-won peace…
After savaging the NI shenanigans he concludes:
And so it goes on, year after year after wretched year. All the fantasies, lies and denials that permeated the dreadful referendum campaign six long years ago are still running into the rock of the realities of international trade and international relations. The government has no solutions because it has never been a government in any real sense of the term, just a vehicle for precisely the fantasies and denials of that campaign.
Sounds like a bitter Remoaner though, so all that can probably be safely ignored.
UK inflation rate 6.2%
If 80% of that is attributable to Brexit, then that means baseline inflation ought to be 1.2% with Brexit contributing 5.0% of inflation.
While its not a direct control group, its close enough to check against the Eurozone for comparison. Their current inflation rate is 7.5%
Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 1.2%? Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 6.2%?
No can't be safely ignored, should be roundly ridiculed instead.
One of the stupidest things I’ve ever seen. Stockholm Syndrome infects economics
I’m right now in the USA. The inflation rate here is 8.5% and everyone talks of it. I hear a lot of smarter people saying ‘thank God we didn’t do Amerexit or it would be 13.5%’
Mate, Brexit was sold on a lot of lies; you can hardly complain when it's being rubbished by other lies.
The eminent economist Adam Posen this week estimated that 80% of UK inflation is attributable to Brexit…
…As Posen pungently expressed it, the UK is “running a natural experiment in what happens when you run a trade war on yourself”. The results so far, his data also suggest, show just how damaging it is…
… Thus, faced with a burgeoning economic crisis, this post-Brexit government is bereft of workable ideas. Its flagship policy has proved an economic dud, but it is inherent in the government’s very formation to be unable to admit that, or to produce any policies that might ameliorate it. Having smashed up the old order, all they can do is stare in slack-jawed bemusement at the rubble around them, like a convention of peculiarly vandalistic village idiots who accidentally got control of a wrecking-ball...
… Meanwhile, the astonishingly dangerous political trick the government used to ‘get Brexit done’ has blown up in its face. That, of course, was agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) which it is clear the government never intended to honour, and which it sold to its MPs as a supposedly temporary measure. Yet, at the very same time, it was sold to the electorate as part of the ’oven-ready deal’ which would put an end to all the boring Brexit wrangling. Worse still, it was signed as an international treaty with the EU, which certainly didn’t regard it as temporary, any more than does the US.
This was done quite knowingly and entirely cynically, and it’s very difficult to think of any equivalent trickery in modern British political history in terms of that combination of national and international dishonesty. Not only was it dishonest, it was actually – I don’t use this word casually – wicked in that the patsy in this trick was, and is, the people of Northern Ireland and the fragile politics of their hard-won peace…
After savaging the NI shenanigans he concludes:
And so it goes on, year after year after wretched year. All the fantasies, lies and denials that permeated the dreadful referendum campaign six long years ago are still running into the rock of the realities of international trade and international relations. The government has no solutions because it has never been a government in any real sense of the term, just a vehicle for precisely the fantasies and denials of that campaign.
Sounds like a bitter Remoaner though, so all that can probably be safely ignored.
UK inflation rate 6.2%
If 80% of that is attributable to Brexit, then that means baseline inflation ought to be 1.2% with Brexit contributing 5.0% of inflation.
While its not a direct control group, its close enough to check against the Eurozone for comparison. Their current inflation rate is 7.5%
Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 1.2%? Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 6.2%?
No can't be safely ignored, should be roundly ridiculed instead.
One of the stupidest things I’ve ever seen. Stockholm Syndrome infects economics
I’m right now in the USA. The inflation rate here is 8.5% and everyone talks of it. I hear a lot of smarter people saying ‘thank God we didn’t do Amerexit or it would be 13.5%’
If you read what he actually said he is talking about inflation forecasts for next year, and why the UK is expected to see more persistent inflation than other countries, not the current inflation rate. Whether he is right or not is a different question, I suspect he is exaggerating the size of the effect but is right about the direction. I know Posen a bit and he has a tendency towards headline-grabbing self-promotion at the expense of serious and measured economic analysis. In other words, I would tend to discount what he says.
35% is what the Tories got on NEV in the 2018 local elections. Labour up 5% since then but the results may be better than expected for the Tories
It’s looking now like it’s worse than expected for Tories, next weeks votes a “plague on Labour and Tory houses” for the sleaze that’s going on.
The eminent pesodolphonists have suggested Tories at about 32 and Labour about 36, and, in amazing contrast to the Westminster poll libdems about 16% not nine!
What are canvassers finding, much enthusiasm? The labour canvasser from up North at this weeks smartmarket event reported not much enthusiasm (but not the outright hostility of recent years LOLs)
I actually think Labour would get more vote out for a general election next week than these locals.
Trying to think of a parallel period in British political history to where we are now in 2022.
1962.
Tories into their third term with their third consecutive PM - an Old Etonian actor manager.
Labour with a relatively new leader.
Two years later the actor-manager PM has been replaced by a new PM, who then loses, narrowly, to Labour in the 1964 General Election.
Anyone find a better match?
Agreed, the next general election will be more 1964 than 1997 if Labour do win.
2022 is unprecedented in multiple ways. We’re emerging (in’s’Allah) from an immense global plague. We face global Cold War, and European Hot War. We are on the cusp of Artificial Intelligence. Etc etc etc. The world is changing at enormous speed, possibly faster than at any time in human history
This is not ‘1964’. It is itself
1964 was just after the Cuban Missile Crisis at the height of the Cold War. There was also the growth of TV and the emergence of the computer and the Space race etc and the cultural revolution of the 1960s
It was the year my wife and I married
Good year for us, too. By the end of it we had two children.
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
Would they have to take the bow off HMS UK after a Yes Sindy vote?
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
HMS Brexit. Guaranteed to sink on its maiden voyage after it trains its guns on itself.
The eminent economist Adam Posen this week estimated that 80% of UK inflation is attributable to Brexit…
…As Posen pungently expressed it, the UK is “running a natural experiment in what happens when you run a trade war on yourself”. The results so far, his data also suggest, show just how damaging it is…
… Thus, faced with a burgeoning economic crisis, this post-Brexit government is bereft of workable ideas. Its flagship policy has proved an economic dud, but it is inherent in the government’s very formation to be unable to admit that, or to produce any policies that might ameliorate it. Having smashed up the old order, all they can do is stare in slack-jawed bemusement at the rubble around them, like a convention of peculiarly vandalistic village idiots who accidentally got control of a wrecking-ball...
… Meanwhile, the astonishingly dangerous political trick the government used to ‘get Brexit done’ has blown up in its face. That, of course, was agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) which it is clear the government never intended to honour, and which it sold to its MPs as a supposedly temporary measure. Yet, at the very same time, it was sold to the electorate as part of the ’oven-ready deal’ which would put an end to all the boring Brexit wrangling. Worse still, it was signed as an international treaty with the EU, which certainly didn’t regard it as temporary, any more than does the US.
This was done quite knowingly and entirely cynically, and it’s very difficult to think of any equivalent trickery in modern British political history in terms of that combination of national and international dishonesty. Not only was it dishonest, it was actually – I don’t use this word casually – wicked in that the patsy in this trick was, and is, the people of Northern Ireland and the fragile politics of their hard-won peace…
After savaging the NI shenanigans he concludes:
And so it goes on, year after year after wretched year. All the fantasies, lies and denials that permeated the dreadful referendum campaign six long years ago are still running into the rock of the realities of international trade and international relations. The government has no solutions because it has never been a government in any real sense of the term, just a vehicle for precisely the fantasies and denials of that campaign.
Sounds like a bitter Remoaner though, so all that can probably be safely ignored.
UK inflation rate 6.2%
If 80% of that is attributable to Brexit, then that means baseline inflation ought to be 1.2% with Brexit contributing 5.0% of inflation.
While its not a direct control group, its close enough to check against the Eurozone for comparison. Their current inflation rate is 7.5%
Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 1.2%? Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 6.2%?
No can't be safely ignored, should be roundly ridiculed instead.
Here's my go:
Given that inflation in the Baltic States is 12-15% and Holland 10%, how they must be regretting their disastrous decisions to leave the EU too!
Switzerland, at 2%, and Norway at 4.5% must be thanking their lucky stars they chose to remain.
I've just changed my mind on the ID argument (only joking). My Dad (96) no longer has a driving licence nor passport and frankly he shouldn't be let anywhere near a polling station. He makes HYUFD look positively liberal.
I have no problem with ID cards . In most EU countries you have show them when you vote . The difference is there is no GB ID card . The governments ID requirements to vote are not about fraud but voter suppression in groups that normally do not vote Tory .
Often asserted, never proven.
Yes if only the bill had been called the Voter Suppression Bill, then we would have known for certain. As it is I suppose the government deserve the benefit of the doubt, given their consistent pattern of honest behaviour... Oh, wait.
I mean, some evidence would be nice. Why do you think "groups that normally do not vote Tory" are too stupid to get a free voter ID even if they don't already have some sort of photo ID (which the vast majority of people do)?
Not a question of being stupid. A question of time, effort, organisation. The point is that younger voters and poorer voters are less likely to have either of the two forms of photo ID that most of us have, a passport or driving license, and so these are the people who will have to get a new ID just to be able to vote. Yet these are also the groups already least likely to vote, and so I would imagine that many won't have the motivation to get the ID, even if perhaps on the day they might have been persuaded to vote. Coincidentally they are also the groups least likely to vote Tory. Meanwhile, impersonation (pretending to be someone else when voting) is an almost non-existent problem. So you are creating a much bigger problem (preventing registered voters from voting on a technicality) to solve a much smaller problem, in a way that will advantage the party that is changing the law. It is voter suppression. It stinks.
I don't think younger voters are less likely to have a driving licence, are they? Certainly when I was that age it was standard for everyone to get their provisional licence as early as they could.
I didn't get one until I was in my mid-20s.
Ditto. Mid-1980's for me, when in my mid-20s. Because I lived in a city. And could barely afford food on an Articled Clerks salary.
Trying to think of a parallel period in British political history to where we are now in 2022.
1962.
Tories into their third term with their third consecutive PM - an Old Etonian actor manager.
Labour with a relatively new leader.
Two years later the actor-manager PM has been replaced by a new PM, who then loses, narrowly, to Labour in the 1964 General Election.
Anyone find a better match?
Agreed, the next general election will be more 1964 than 1997 if Labour do win.
2022 is unprecedented in multiple ways. We’re emerging (in’s’Allah) from an immense global plague. We face global Cold War, and European Hot War. We are on the cusp of Artificial Intelligence. Etc etc etc. The world is changing at enormous speed, possibly faster than at any time in human history
This is not ‘1964’. It is itself
1964 was just after the Cuban Missile Crisis at the height of the Cold War. There was also the growth of TV and the emergence of the computer and the Space race etc and the cultural revolution of the 1960s
Things moved quite quickly in the 1960s. That does not preclude them moving even faster now. Much faster
AI is much overblown.
This article in the Atlantic is quite interesting on Google Translate. Now don't get me wrong, Google Translate is a great tool, very useful etc. But it's a million miles away from human intelligence.
Which suggests we really are close to proper AI, if not there already
Anybody claiming GPT3 is "proper" AI, is quite frankly an idiot. Its highly impressive, as is DALLE-2, but its not intelligent. They are giant transformers. Yes that means they can create a sentence or a picture never been written or drawn before, but it has no concept of what that sentence means, if it actually makes sense, if it doesn't how to correct it, etc etc etc. They can't adapt to a changing world without total retraining of the whole giant network.
Hence, the Turing Test
You should know this. At some point (very soon, I suspect) the output of Neural Networks like GPT4 will be indistinguishable from human communication and creativity. At that juncture, the question as to whether they are actually ‘intelligent’ will become an abstruse debate for theologians and philosophers. They will appear, seem, act, speak, draw, sing, joke, create and behave as if they are humanly intelligent. They will then be, to all intents and purposes, intelligent
It will get REALLY spooky when they are obviously MORE ‘intelligent’. That’s coming, as well
Turing himself never even stated that it could or should be used as a measure of "intelligence". It is widely criticised by loads of academics when people to claim it as any sort of baseline for such.
Anyway I have Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence work to be doing.
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
Agree Britannia and DofE should be favourite. If not those, I can see them going for a trade link and looking at Golden Hind or similar.
Agree with the main premise though. It’ll be something “low brow” historical. A name everyone knows that tests well in focus groups.
Trying to think of a parallel period in British political history to where we are now in 2022.
1962.
Tories into their third term with their third consecutive PM - an Old Etonian actor manager.
Labour with a relatively new leader.
Two years later the actor-manager PM has been replaced by a new PM, who then loses, narrowly, to Labour in the 1964 General Election.
Anyone find a better match?
Agreed, the next general election will be more 1964 than 1997 if Labour do win.
2022 is unprecedented in multiple ways. We’re emerging (in’s’Allah) from an immense global plague. We face global Cold War, and European Hot War. We are on the cusp of Artificial Intelligence. Etc etc etc. The world is changing at enormous speed, possibly faster than at any time in human history
This is not ‘1964’. It is itself
1964 was just after the Cuban Missile Crisis at the height of the Cold War. There was also the growth of TV and the emergence of the computer and the Space race etc and the cultural revolution of the 1960s
Things moved quite quickly in the 1960s. That does not preclude them moving even faster now. Much faster
AI is much overblown.
This article in the Atlantic is quite interesting on Google Translate. Now don't get me wrong, Google Translate is a great tool, very useful etc. But it's a million miles away from human intelligence.
Which suggests we really are close to proper AI, if not there already
Anybody claiming GPT3 is "proper" AI, is quite frankly an idiot. Its highly impressive, as is DALLE-2, but its not intelligent. They are giant transformers. Yes that means they can create a sentence or a picture never been written or drawn before, but it has no concept of what that sentence means, if it actually makes sense, if it doesn't how to correct it, etc etc etc. They can't adapt to a changing world without total retraining of the whole giant network.
Hence, the Turing Test
You should know this. At some point (very soon, I suspect) the output of Neural Networks like GPT4 will be indistinguishable from human communication and creativity. At that juncture, the question as to whether they are actually ‘intelligent’ will become an abstruse debate for theologians and philosophers. They will appear, seem, act, speak, draw, sing, joke, create and behave as if they are humanly intelligent. They will then be, to all intents and purposes, intelligent
It will get REALLY spooky when they are obviously MORE ‘intelligent’. That’s coming, as well
The Turing Test is just a really weak stipulation, not a test (and one which has been passed. I asked an online chat thing with my bank "Are you human?" the other day, quite well in to the chat, because I genuinely couldn't tell). Google Chinese Room to see why.
Yes yes, I know all this.
The principle of the Turing Test is fundamentally sound, and he was prescient. Once we cannot distinguish between AI and human intelligence when we interact with them, then we might as well call them intelligent.
His method - rooms, conversations, etc - has not aged as well. But the insight remains profound
Let’s take an example. You have a Zoom conversation with an online doctor (who is actually a deepfake invented face, powered by GPT5). The doctor listens to your complaints sympathetically, makes a few jokes that lighten the mood, is highly attendant to your symptoms, and asks after your kids (remembering all their names and foibles). Then the same doctor gives you an excellently accurate diagnosis and recommends precisely the right treatment. The doctor is tireless, cheerful and encouraging, throughout
If you weren’t told, you would go away from that consultation thinking ‘wow, I’m so lucky to have such a nice, intelligent doctor’
Computers are just a few years from being able to do that. They will be intelligent
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
Victoria Victoria and Albert was the name of the original floating gin palace. But the Albert bit has unfortunate connotations, namely a time when the dominant male in the UK was earnest, hardworking, interested in science, and diligent in promoting progress.
Trying to think of a parallel period in British political history to where we are now in 2022.
1962.
Tories into their third term with their third consecutive PM - an Old Etonian actor manager.
Labour with a relatively new leader.
Two years later the actor-manager PM has been replaced by a new PM, who then loses, narrowly, to Labour in the 1964 General Election.
Anyone find a better match?
Agreed, the next general election will be more 1964 than 1997 if Labour do win.
2022 is unprecedented in multiple ways. We’re emerging (in’s’Allah) from an immense global plague. We face global Cold War, and European Hot War. We are on the cusp of Artificial Intelligence. Etc etc etc. The world is changing at enormous speed, possibly faster than at any time in human history
This is not ‘1964’. It is itself
1964 was just after the Cuban Missile Crisis at the height of the Cold War. There was also the growth of TV and the emergence of the computer and the Space race etc and the cultural revolution of the 1960s
It was the year my wife and I married
Good year for us, too. By the end of it we had two children.
Just thought I would click “check previous quotes” for the year expecting 18something 😆
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
Surely HMS Yachty McYachtface has to be in with a shout.
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
Would they have to take the bow off HMS UK after a Yes Sindy vote?
Rather more than that, given the relative areas of land and territorial waters.
Trying to think of a parallel period in British political history to where we are now in 2022.
1962.
Tories into their third term with their third consecutive PM - an Old Etonian actor manager.
Labour with a relatively new leader.
Two years later the actor-manager PM has been replaced by a new PM, who then loses, narrowly, to Labour in the 1964 General Election.
Anyone find a better match?
Agreed, the next general election will be more 1964 than 1997 if Labour do win.
2022 is unprecedented in multiple ways. We’re emerging (in’s’Allah) from an immense global plague. We face global Cold War, and European Hot War. We are on the cusp of Artificial Intelligence. Etc etc etc. The world is changing at enormous speed, possibly faster than at any time in human history
This is not ‘1964’. It is itself
1964 was just after the Cuban Missile Crisis at the height of the Cold War. There was also the growth of TV and the emergence of the computer and the Space race etc and the cultural revolution of the 1960s
Things moved quite quickly in the 1960s. That does not preclude them moving even faster now. Much faster
AI is much overblown.
This article in the Atlantic is quite interesting on Google Translate. Now don't get me wrong, Google Translate is a great tool, very useful etc. But it's a million miles away from human intelligence.
Which suggests we really are close to proper AI, if not there already
Anybody claiming GPT3 is "proper" AI, is quite frankly an idiot. Its highly impressive, as is DALLE-2, but its not intelligent. They are giant transformers. Yes that means they can create a sentence or a picture never been written or drawn before, but it has no concept of what that sentence means, if it actually makes sense, if it doesn't how to correct it, etc etc etc. They can't adapt to a changing world without total retraining of the whole giant network.
Hence, the Turing Test
You should know this. At some point (very soon, I suspect) the output of Neural Networks like GPT4 will be indistinguishable from human communication and creativity. At that juncture, the question as to whether they are actually ‘intelligent’ will become an abstruse debate for theologians and philosophers. They will appear, seem, act, speak, draw, sing, joke, create and behave as if they are humanly intelligent. They will then be, to all intents and purposes, intelligent
It will get REALLY spooky when they are obviously MORE ‘intelligent’. That’s coming, as well
The Turing Test is just a really weak stipulation, not a test (and one which has been passed. I asked an online chat thing with my bank "Are you human?" the other day, quite well in to the chat, because I genuinely couldn't tell). Google Chinese Room to see why.
Yes yes, I know all this.
The principle of the Turing Test is fundamentally sound, and he was prescient. Once we cannot distinguish between AI and human intelligence when we interact with them, then we might as well call them intelligent.
His method - rooms, conversations, etc - has not aged as well. But the insight remains profound
Let’s take an example. You have a Zoom conversation with an online doctor (who is actually a deepfake invented face, powered by GPT5). The doctor listens to your complaints sympathetically, makes a few jokes that lighten the mood, is highly attendant to your symptoms, and asks after your kids (remembering all their names and foibles). Then the same doctor gives you an excellently accurate diagnosis and recommends precisely the right treatment. The doctor is tireless, cheerful and encouraging, throughout
If you weren’t told, you would go away from that consultation thinking ‘wow, I’m so lucky to have such a nice, intelligent doctor’
Computers are just a few years from being able to do that. They will be intelligent
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
HMS Brexit. Guaranteed to sink on its maiden voyage after it trains its guns on itself.
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
Surely HMS Yachty McYachtface has to be in with a shout.
Another name that wouldn't survive Scottish independence, though.
35% is what the Tories got on NEV in the 2018 local elections. Labour up 5% since then but the results may be better than expected for the Tories
It’s looking now like it’s worse than expected for Tories, next weeks votes a “plague on Labour and Tory houses” for the sleaze that’s going on.
The eminent pesodolphonists have suggested Tories at about 32 and Labour about 36, and, in amazing contrast to the Westminster poll libdems about 16% not nine!
What are canvassers finding, much enthusiasm? The labour canvasser from up North at this weeks smartmarket event reported not much enthusiasm (but not the outright hostility of recent years LOLs)
I actually think Labour would get more vote out for a general election next week than these locals.
I believe the lib dems will have a very successful locals
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
Would they have to take the bow off HMS UK after a Yes Sindy vote?
It'll still be the 'United Kingdom' of England, Wales and the Isle of Wight.
Imagine going back to 2005 and telling someone that the Crazy Frog cover of Axel F would one day be used in an official video released by the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces showing invading Russian units being destroyed by artillery. https://twitter.com/N_Waters89/status/1519985198355652609
Trying to think of a parallel period in British political history to where we are now in 2022.
1962.
Tories into their third term with their third consecutive PM - an Old Etonian actor manager.
Labour with a relatively new leader.
Two years later the actor-manager PM has been replaced by a new PM, who then loses, narrowly, to Labour in the 1964 General Election.
Anyone find a better match?
Agreed, the next general election will be more 1964 than 1997 if Labour do win.
2022 is unprecedented in multiple ways. We’re emerging (in’s’Allah) from an immense global plague. We face global Cold War, and European Hot War. We are on the cusp of Artificial Intelligence. Etc etc etc. The world is changing at enormous speed, possibly faster than at any time in human history
This is not ‘1964’. It is itself
1964 was just after the Cuban Missile Crisis at the height of the Cold War. There was also the growth of TV and the emergence of the computer and the Space race etc and the cultural revolution of the 1960s
Things moved quite quickly in the 1960s. That does not preclude them moving even faster now. Much faster
AI is much overblown.
This article in the Atlantic is quite interesting on Google Translate. Now don't get me wrong, Google Translate is a great tool, very useful etc. But it's a million miles away from human intelligence.
Which suggests we really are close to proper AI, if not there already
Anybody claiming GPT3 is "proper" AI, is quite frankly an idiot. Its highly impressive, as is DALLE-2, but its not intelligent. They are giant transformers. Yes that means they can create a sentence or a picture never been written or drawn before, but it has no concept of what that sentence means, if it actually makes sense, if it doesn't how to correct it, etc etc etc. They can't adapt to a changing world without total retraining of the whole giant network.
Hence, the Turing Test
You should know this. At some point (very soon, I suspect) the output of Neural Networks like GPT4 will be indistinguishable from human communication and creativity. At that juncture, the question as to whether they are actually ‘intelligent’ will become an abstruse debate for theologians and philosophers. They will appear, seem, act, speak, draw, sing, joke, create and behave as if they are humanly intelligent. They will then be, to all intents and purposes, intelligent
It will get REALLY spooky when they are obviously MORE ‘intelligent’. That’s coming, as well
Turing himself never even stated that it could or should be used as a measure of "intelligence". It is widely criticised by loads of academics when people to claim it as any sort of baseline for such.
Anyway I have Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence work to be doing.
The Turing Test is an interesting postulate - a start of a debate on the nature of intelligence, not the end.
The eminent economist Adam Posen this week estimated that 80% of UK inflation is attributable to Brexit…
…As Posen pungently expressed it, the UK is “running a natural experiment in what happens when you run a trade war on yourself”. The results so far, his data also suggest, show just how damaging it is…
… Thus, faced with a burgeoning economic crisis, this post-Brexit government is bereft of workable ideas. Its flagship policy has proved an economic dud, but it is inherent in the government’s very formation to be unable to admit that, or to produce any policies that might ameliorate it. Having smashed up the old order, all they can do is stare in slack-jawed bemusement at the rubble around them, like a convention of peculiarly vandalistic village idiots who accidentally got control of a wrecking-ball...
… Meanwhile, the astonishingly dangerous political trick the government used to ‘get Brexit done’ has blown up in its face. That, of course, was agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) which it is clear the government never intended to honour, and which it sold to its MPs as a supposedly temporary measure. Yet, at the very same time, it was sold to the electorate as part of the ’oven-ready deal’ which would put an end to all the boring Brexit wrangling. Worse still, it was signed as an international treaty with the EU, which certainly didn’t regard it as temporary, any more than does the US.
This was done quite knowingly and entirely cynically, and it’s very difficult to think of any equivalent trickery in modern British political history in terms of that combination of national and international dishonesty. Not only was it dishonest, it was actually – I don’t use this word casually – wicked in that the patsy in this trick was, and is, the people of Northern Ireland and the fragile politics of their hard-won peace…
After savaging the NI shenanigans he concludes:
And so it goes on, year after year after wretched year. All the fantasies, lies and denials that permeated the dreadful referendum campaign six long years ago are still running into the rock of the realities of international trade and international relations. The government has no solutions because it has never been a government in any real sense of the term, just a vehicle for precisely the fantasies and denials of that campaign.
Sounds like a bitter Remoaner though, so all that can probably be safely ignored.
UK inflation rate 6.2%
If 80% of that is attributable to Brexit, then that means baseline inflation ought to be 1.2% with Brexit contributing 5.0% of inflation.
While its not a direct control group, its close enough to check against the Eurozone for comparison. Their current inflation rate is 7.5%
Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 1.2%? Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 6.2%?
No can't be safely ignored, should be roundly ridiculed instead.
I wish I could pronounce so authoritatively on such a wide range of intricate specialisms as you do. I doff my cap to an intellectual titan.
But it’s fucking obvious. Why is the French inflation rate 5.4%? Why is the German inflation rate 7.3%? Why is the American inflation rate 8.5%?
Did they all exit the European Union or is that guy you cite a screaming Remoaner moron almost as stupid as you?
You’re a silver tongued charmer, that’s why I like you.
I don’t profess to understand economics. I’m a despicable, maybe even stupid, humanities grad. But I am more inclined to listen to the findings of a professional, respected economist (who’s findings, as I noted, happily reinforce my bias) rather than shouty blokes on the internet.
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
HMS Brexit. Guaranteed to sink on its maiden voyage after it trains its guns on itself.
HMS House of Lords? Bloated, expensive and largely pointless.
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
Surely HMS Yachty McYachtface has to be in with a shout.
The eminent economist Adam Posen this week estimated that 80% of UK inflation is attributable to Brexit…
…As Posen pungently expressed it, the UK is “running a natural experiment in what happens when you run a trade war on yourself”. The results so far, his data also suggest, show just how damaging it is…
… Thus, faced with a burgeoning economic crisis, this post-Brexit government is bereft of workable ideas. Its flagship policy has proved an economic dud, but it is inherent in the government’s very formation to be unable to admit that, or to produce any policies that might ameliorate it. Having smashed up the old order, all they can do is stare in slack-jawed bemusement at the rubble around them, like a convention of peculiarly vandalistic village idiots who accidentally got control of a wrecking-ball...
… Meanwhile, the astonishingly dangerous political trick the government used to ‘get Brexit done’ has blown up in its face. That, of course, was agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) which it is clear the government never intended to honour, and which it sold to its MPs as a supposedly temporary measure. Yet, at the very same time, it was sold to the electorate as part of the ’oven-ready deal’ which would put an end to all the boring Brexit wrangling. Worse still, it was signed as an international treaty with the EU, which certainly didn’t regard it as temporary, any more than does the US.
This was done quite knowingly and entirely cynically, and it’s very difficult to think of any equivalent trickery in modern British political history in terms of that combination of national and international dishonesty. Not only was it dishonest, it was actually – I don’t use this word casually – wicked in that the patsy in this trick was, and is, the people of Northern Ireland and the fragile politics of their hard-won peace…
After savaging the NI shenanigans he concludes:
And so it goes on, year after year after wretched year. All the fantasies, lies and denials that permeated the dreadful referendum campaign six long years ago are still running into the rock of the realities of international trade and international relations. The government has no solutions because it has never been a government in any real sense of the term, just a vehicle for precisely the fantasies and denials of that campaign.
Sounds like a bitter Remoaner though, so all that can probably be safely ignored.
UK inflation rate 6.2%
If 80% of that is attributable to Brexit, then that means baseline inflation ought to be 1.2% with Brexit contributing 5.0% of inflation.
While its not a direct control group, its close enough to check against the Eurozone for comparison. Their current inflation rate is 7.5%
Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 1.2%? Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 6.2%?
No can't be safely ignored, should be roundly ridiculed instead.
I wish I could pronounce so authoritatively on such a wide range of intricate specialisms as you do. I doff my cap to an intellectual titan.
If you're going to share an article suggesting that 80% of inflation is caused by Brexit, it might be worth thinking that through.
Do you really think that we would have an inflation rate of 1.2% were it not for Brexit? At a time when the Eurozone has inflation higher than our own, is 80% of our own really caused by Brexit?
Do you actually think that, or did you take him at his word and not think it through?
If you read the link, you'd see it was using IMF forecasts and averages.
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
The proportion without a passport or driving license is 24%, 11m adults.
"Approximately 3.5m electors (7.5% of the electorate) would have none of the forms of photo ID highlighted, i.e. 92.5% of electors would already have at least one form of acceptable photo ID. "
That feels about right.
Also, that Electoral Commission that apparently is so inimical to the interests of the Tories that they have to take control of it? They've been recommending photo ID for voting since 2014.
Trying to think of a parallel period in British political history to where we are now in 2022.
1962.
Tories into their third term with their third consecutive PM - an Old Etonian actor manager.
Labour with a relatively new leader.
Two years later the actor-manager PM has been replaced by a new PM, who then loses, narrowly, to Labour in the 1964 General Election.
Anyone find a better match?
Agreed, the next general election will be more 1964 than 1997 if Labour do win.
2022 is unprecedented in multiple ways. We’re emerging (in’s’Allah) from an immense global plague. We face global Cold War, and European Hot War. We are on the cusp of Artificial Intelligence. Etc etc etc. The world is changing at enormous speed, possibly faster than at any time in human history
This is not ‘1964’. It is itself
1964 was just after the Cuban Missile Crisis at the height of the Cold War. There was also the growth of TV and the emergence of the computer and the Space race etc and the cultural revolution of the 1960s
Things moved quite quickly in the 1960s. That does not preclude them moving even faster now. Much faster
AI is much overblown.
This article in the Atlantic is quite interesting on Google Translate. Now don't get me wrong, Google Translate is a great tool, very useful etc. But it's a million miles away from human intelligence.
Which suggests we really are close to proper AI, if not there already
Anybody claiming GPT3 is "proper" AI, is quite frankly an idiot. Its highly impressive, as is DALLE-2, but its not intelligent. They are giant transformers. Yes that means they can create a sentence or a picture never been written or drawn before, but it has no concept of what that sentence means, if it actually makes sense, if it doesn't how to correct it, etc etc etc. They can't adapt to a changing world without total retraining of the whole giant network.
Hence, the Turing Test
You should know this. At some point (very soon, I suspect) the output of Neural Networks like GPT4 will be indistinguishable from human communication and creativity. At that juncture, the question as to whether they are actually ‘intelligent’ will become an abstruse debate for theologians and philosophers. They will appear, seem, act, speak, draw, sing, joke, create and behave as if they are humanly intelligent. They will then be, to all intents and purposes, intelligent
It will get REALLY spooky when they are obviously MORE ‘intelligent’. That’s coming, as well
Turing himself never even stated that it could or should be used as a measure of "intelligence". It is widely criticised by loads of academics when people to claim it as any sort of baseline for such.
Anyway I have Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence work to be doing.
The Turing Test is an interesting postulate - a start of a debate on the nature of intelligence, not the end.
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
HMS Big Nauti
Where did HG Wells get Thunderchild from, it doesn’t sound remotely like something Royal Navy would use? It sounds like American Indian names that would be cool.
I have no problem with ID cards . In most EU countries you have show them when you vote . The difference is there is no GB ID card . The governments ID requirements to vote are not about fraud but voter suppression in groups that normally do not vote Tory .
Often asserted, never proven.
Yes if only the bill had been called the Voter Suppression Bill, then we would have known for certain. As it is I suppose the government deserve the benefit of the doubt, given their consistent pattern of honest behaviour... Oh, wait.
I mean, some evidence would be nice. Why do you think "groups that normally do not vote Tory" are too stupid to get a free voter ID even if they don't already have some sort of photo ID (which the vast majority of people do)?
Not a question of being stupid. A question of time, effort, organisation. The point is that younger voters and poorer voters are less likely to have either of the two forms of photo ID that most of us have, a passport or driving license, and so these are the people who will have to get a new ID just to be able to vote. Yet these are also the groups already least likely to vote, and so I would imagine that many won't have the motivation to get the ID, even if perhaps on the day they might have been persuaded to vote. Coincidentally they are also the groups least likely to vote Tory. Meanwhile, impersonation (pretending to be someone else when voting) is an almost non-existent problem. So you are creating a much bigger problem (preventing registered voters from voting on a technicality) to solve a much smaller problem, in a way that will advantage the party that is changing the law. It is voter suppression. It stinks.
I don't think younger voters are less likely to have a driving licence, are they? Certainly when I was that age it was standard for everyone to get their provisional licence as early as they could.
I didn't get one until I was in my mid-20s.
Ditto. Mid-1980's for me, when in my mid-20s. Because I lived in a city. And could barely afford food on an Articled Clerks salary.
I had no plans to learn to drive but I got a job in the Caribbean and public transport wasn't up to much and it was too hot to walk so I learned to drive quick time. Luckily I could convert the license to a UK one when I came back. I still have no idea what is in the Highway Code...
The eminent economist Adam Posen this week estimated that 80% of UK inflation is attributable to Brexit…
…As Posen pungently expressed it, the UK is “running a natural experiment in what happens when you run a trade war on yourself”. The results so far, his data also suggest, show just how damaging it is…
… Thus, faced with a burgeoning economic crisis, this post-Brexit government is bereft of workable ideas. Its flagship policy has proved an economic dud, but it is inherent in the government’s very formation to be unable to admit that, or to produce any policies that might ameliorate it. Having smashed up the old order, all they can do is stare in slack-jawed bemusement at the rubble around them, like a convention of peculiarly vandalistic village idiots who accidentally got control of a wrecking-ball...
… Meanwhile, the astonishingly dangerous political trick the government used to ‘get Brexit done’ has blown up in its face. That, of course, was agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) which it is clear the government never intended to honour, and which it sold to its MPs as a supposedly temporary measure. Yet, at the very same time, it was sold to the electorate as part of the ’oven-ready deal’ which would put an end to all the boring Brexit wrangling. Worse still, it was signed as an international treaty with the EU, which certainly didn’t regard it as temporary, any more than does the US.
This was done quite knowingly and entirely cynically, and it’s very difficult to think of any equivalent trickery in modern British political history in terms of that combination of national and international dishonesty. Not only was it dishonest, it was actually – I don’t use this word casually – wicked in that the patsy in this trick was, and is, the people of Northern Ireland and the fragile politics of their hard-won peace…
After savaging the NI shenanigans he concludes:
And so it goes on, year after year after wretched year. All the fantasies, lies and denials that permeated the dreadful referendum campaign six long years ago are still running into the rock of the realities of international trade and international relations. The government has no solutions because it has never been a government in any real sense of the term, just a vehicle for precisely the fantasies and denials of that campaign.
Sounds like a bitter Remoaner though, so all that can probably be safely ignored.
UK inflation rate 6.2%
If 80% of that is attributable to Brexit, then that means baseline inflation ought to be 1.2% with Brexit contributing 5.0% of inflation.
While its not a direct control group, its close enough to check against the Eurozone for comparison. Their current inflation rate is 7.5%
Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 1.2%? Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 6.2%?
No can't be safely ignored, should be roundly ridiculed instead.
It's completely risible. I still enjoyed the LSE study suggesting that UK exports to the EU had largely recovered in both value and volume terms but EU exports to the UK hadn't but the authors then completely disregarding the actual evidence to conclude that actually, UK "trade" hasn't recovered because of Brexit because our imports from the EU were still down. It's why no one takes the field of economics seriously, it's politics dressed up as a science.
@DmytroKuleba In our new call today, @trussliz and I discussed further arms supplies to Ukraine and agreed on the need to impose a real embargo on Russian oil imports to Europe as soon as possible. Real means 0% and no blends. We also discussed the issue of security guarantees for Ukraine.
The eminent economist Adam Posen this week estimated that 80% of UK inflation is attributable to Brexit…
…As Posen pungently expressed it, the UK is “running a natural experiment in what happens when you run a trade war on yourself”. The results so far, his data also suggest, show just how damaging it is…
… Thus, faced with a burgeoning economic crisis, this post-Brexit government is bereft of workable ideas. Its flagship policy has proved an economic dud, but it is inherent in the government’s very formation to be unable to admit that, or to produce any policies that might ameliorate it. Having smashed up the old order, all they can do is stare in slack-jawed bemusement at the rubble around them, like a convention of peculiarly vandalistic village idiots who accidentally got control of a wrecking-ball...
… Meanwhile, the astonishingly dangerous political trick the government used to ‘get Brexit done’ has blown up in its face. That, of course, was agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) which it is clear the government never intended to honour, and which it sold to its MPs as a supposedly temporary measure. Yet, at the very same time, it was sold to the electorate as part of the ’oven-ready deal’ which would put an end to all the boring Brexit wrangling. Worse still, it was signed as an international treaty with the EU, which certainly didn’t regard it as temporary, any more than does the US.
This was done quite knowingly and entirely cynically, and it’s very difficult to think of any equivalent trickery in modern British political history in terms of that combination of national and international dishonesty. Not only was it dishonest, it was actually – I don’t use this word casually – wicked in that the patsy in this trick was, and is, the people of Northern Ireland and the fragile politics of their hard-won peace…
After savaging the NI shenanigans he concludes:
And so it goes on, year after year after wretched year. All the fantasies, lies and denials that permeated the dreadful referendum campaign six long years ago are still running into the rock of the realities of international trade and international relations. The government has no solutions because it has never been a government in any real sense of the term, just a vehicle for precisely the fantasies and denials of that campaign.
Sounds like a bitter Remoaner though, so all that can probably be safely ignored.
UK inflation rate 6.2%
If 80% of that is attributable to Brexit, then that means baseline inflation ought to be 1.2% with Brexit contributing 5.0% of inflation.
While its not a direct control group, its close enough to check against the Eurozone for comparison. Their current inflation rate is 7.5%
Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 1.2%? Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 6.2%?
No can't be safely ignored, should be roundly ridiculed instead.
I wish I could pronounce so authoritatively on such a wide range of intricate specialisms as you do. I doff my cap to an intellectual titan.
But it’s fucking obvious. Why is the French inflation rate 5.4%? Why is the German inflation rate 7.3%? Why is the American inflation rate 8.5%?
Did they all exit the European Union or is that guy you cite a screaming Remoaner moron almost as stupid as you?
You’re a silver tongued charmer, that’s why I like you.
I don’t profess to understand economics. I’m a despicable, maybe even stupid, humanities grad. But I am more inclined to listen to the findings of a professional, respected economist (who’s findings, as I noted, happily reinforce my bias) rather than shouty blokes on the internet.
Inflation in the UK is high due to Brexit.
Inflation everywhere else is similarly high for other, unrelated reasons.
When Gove said we'd had enough of experts, he meant this guy, specifically.
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
Agree Britannia and DofE should be favourite. If not those, I can see them going for a trade link and looking at Golden Hind or similar.
Agree with the main premise though. It’ll be something “low brow” historical. A name everyone knows that tests well in focus groups.
Part at least of the time the Golden Hind was engaged in piracy wasn't it?
The eminent economist Adam Posen this week estimated that 80% of UK inflation is attributable to Brexit…
…As Posen pungently expressed it, the UK is “running a natural experiment in what happens when you run a trade war on yourself”. The results so far, his data also suggest, show just how damaging it is…
… Thus, faced with a burgeoning economic crisis, this post-Brexit government is bereft of workable ideas. Its flagship policy has proved an economic dud, but it is inherent in the government’s very formation to be unable to admit that, or to produce any policies that might ameliorate it. Having smashed up the old order, all they can do is stare in slack-jawed bemusement at the rubble around them, like a convention of peculiarly vandalistic village idiots who accidentally got control of a wrecking-ball...
… Meanwhile, the astonishingly dangerous political trick the government used to ‘get Brexit done’ has blown up in its face. That, of course, was agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) which it is clear the government never intended to honour, and which it sold to its MPs as a supposedly temporary measure. Yet, at the very same time, it was sold to the electorate as part of the ’oven-ready deal’ which would put an end to all the boring Brexit wrangling. Worse still, it was signed as an international treaty with the EU, which certainly didn’t regard it as temporary, any more than does the US.
This was done quite knowingly and entirely cynically, and it’s very difficult to think of any equivalent trickery in modern British political history in terms of that combination of national and international dishonesty. Not only was it dishonest, it was actually – I don’t use this word casually – wicked in that the patsy in this trick was, and is, the people of Northern Ireland and the fragile politics of their hard-won peace…
After savaging the NI shenanigans he concludes:
And so it goes on, year after year after wretched year. All the fantasies, lies and denials that permeated the dreadful referendum campaign six long years ago are still running into the rock of the realities of international trade and international relations. The government has no solutions because it has never been a government in any real sense of the term, just a vehicle for precisely the fantasies and denials of that campaign.
Sounds like a bitter Remoaner though, so all that can probably be safely ignored.
UK inflation rate 6.2%
If 80% of that is attributable to Brexit, then that means baseline inflation ought to be 1.2% with Brexit contributing 5.0% of inflation.
While its not a direct control group, its close enough to check against the Eurozone for comparison. Their current inflation rate is 7.5%
Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 1.2%? Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 6.2%?
No can't be safely ignored, should be roundly ridiculed instead.
I wish I could pronounce so authoritatively on such a wide range of intricate specialisms as you do. I doff my cap to an intellectual titan.
But it’s fucking obvious. Why is the French inflation rate 5.4%? Why is the German inflation rate 7.3%? Why is the American inflation rate 8.5%?
Did they all exit the European Union or is that guy you cite a screaming Remoaner moron almost as stupid as you?
You’re a silver tongued charmer, that’s why I like you.
I don’t profess to understand economics. I’m a despicable, maybe even stupid, humanities grad. But I am more inclined to listen to the findings of a professional, respected economist (who’s findings, as I noted, happily reinforce my bias) rather than shouty blokes on the internet.
Trying to think of a parallel period in British political history to where we are now in 2022.
1962.
Tories into their third term with their third consecutive PM - an Old Etonian actor manager.
Labour with a relatively new leader.
Two years later the actor-manager PM has been replaced by a new PM, who then loses, narrowly, to Labour in the 1964 General Election.
Anyone find a better match?
Agreed, the next general election will be more 1964 than 1997 if Labour do win.
2022 is unprecedented in multiple ways. We’re emerging (in’s’Allah) from an immense global plague. We face global Cold War, and European Hot War. We are on the cusp of Artificial Intelligence. Etc etc etc. The world is changing at enormous speed, possibly faster than at any time in human history
This is not ‘1964’. It is itself
1964 was just after the Cuban Missile Crisis at the height of the Cold War. There was also the growth of TV and the emergence of the computer and the Space race etc and the cultural revolution of the 1960s
Things moved quite quickly in the 1960s. That does not preclude them moving even faster now. Much faster
AI is much overblown.
This article in the Atlantic is quite interesting on Google Translate. Now don't get me wrong, Google Translate is a great tool, very useful etc. But it's a million miles away from human intelligence.
Which suggests we really are close to proper AI, if not there already
Anybody claiming GPT3 is "proper" AI, is quite frankly an idiot. Its highly impressive, as is DALLE-2, but its not intelligent. They are giant transformers. Yes that means they can create a sentence or a picture never been written or drawn before, but it has no concept of what that sentence means, if it actually makes sense, if it doesn't how to correct it, etc etc etc. They can't adapt to a changing world without total retraining of the whole giant network.
Hence, the Turing Test
You should know this. At some point (very soon, I suspect) the output of Neural Networks like GPT4 will be indistinguishable from human communication and creativity. At that juncture, the question as to whether they are actually ‘intelligent’ will become an abstruse debate for theologians and philosophers. They will appear, seem, act, speak, draw, sing, joke, create and behave as if they are humanly intelligent. They will then be, to all intents and purposes, intelligent
It will get REALLY spooky when they are obviously MORE ‘intelligent’. That’s coming, as well
Turing himself never even stated that it could or should be used as a measure of "intelligence". It is widely criticised by loads of academics when people to claim it as any sort of baseline for such.
Anyway I have Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence work to be doing.
The Turing Test is an interesting postulate - a start of a debate on the nature of intelligence, not the end.
Imagine going back to 2005 and telling someone that the Crazy Frog cover of Axel F would one day be used in an official video released by the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces showing invading Russian units being destroyed by artillery. https://twitter.com/N_Waters89/status/1519985198355652609
Interesting. Indexing artillery on positions that the enemy will probably use as a cover position during an attack is an old, old idea. I recall reading of that as a tactic in the Napoleonic wars.
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
Agree Britannia and DofE should be favourite. If not those, I can see them going for a trade link and looking at Golden Hind or similar.
Agree with the main premise though. It’ll be something “low brow” historical. A name everyone knows that tests well in focus groups.
Part at least of the time the Golden Hind was engaged in piracy wasn't it?
So maybe......
And slavery and genocide. Drake is a local hero and was born just down the road, but he was not a nice bloke (and not in a way which is defensible by "different standards in those days" arguments)
The eminent economist Adam Posen this week estimated that 80% of UK inflation is attributable to Brexit…
…As Posen pungently expressed it, the UK is “running a natural experiment in what happens when you run a trade war on yourself”. The results so far, his data also suggest, show just how damaging it is…
… Thus, faced with a burgeoning economic crisis, this post-Brexit government is bereft of workable ideas. Its flagship policy has proved an economic dud, but it is inherent in the government’s very formation to be unable to admit that, or to produce any policies that might ameliorate it. Having smashed up the old order, all they can do is stare in slack-jawed bemusement at the rubble around them, like a convention of peculiarly vandalistic village idiots who accidentally got control of a wrecking-ball...
… Meanwhile, the astonishingly dangerous political trick the government used to ‘get Brexit done’ has blown up in its face. That, of course, was agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) which it is clear the government never intended to honour, and which it sold to its MPs as a supposedly temporary measure. Yet, at the very same time, it was sold to the electorate as part of the ’oven-ready deal’ which would put an end to all the boring Brexit wrangling. Worse still, it was signed as an international treaty with the EU, which certainly didn’t regard it as temporary, any more than does the US.
This was done quite knowingly and entirely cynically, and it’s very difficult to think of any equivalent trickery in modern British political history in terms of that combination of national and international dishonesty. Not only was it dishonest, it was actually – I don’t use this word casually – wicked in that the patsy in this trick was, and is, the people of Northern Ireland and the fragile politics of their hard-won peace…
After savaging the NI shenanigans he concludes:
And so it goes on, year after year after wretched year. All the fantasies, lies and denials that permeated the dreadful referendum campaign six long years ago are still running into the rock of the realities of international trade and international relations. The government has no solutions because it has never been a government in any real sense of the term, just a vehicle for precisely the fantasies and denials of that campaign.
Sounds like a bitter Remoaner though, so all that can probably be safely ignored.
UK inflation rate 6.2%
If 80% of that is attributable to Brexit, then that means baseline inflation ought to be 1.2% with Brexit contributing 5.0% of inflation.
While its not a direct control group, its close enough to check against the Eurozone for comparison. Their current inflation rate is 7.5%
Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 1.2%? Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 6.2%?
No can't be safely ignored, should be roundly ridiculed instead.
I wish I could pronounce so authoritatively on such a wide range of intricate specialisms as you do. I doff my cap to an intellectual titan.
But it’s fucking obvious. Why is the French inflation rate 5.4%? Why is the German inflation rate 7.3%? Why is the American inflation rate 8.5%?
Did they all exit the European Union or is that guy you cite a screaming Remoaner moron almost as stupid as you?
Gas price shock owing to events in a faraway country of which even Dominic Raab might now have heard? Read the sodding link.
Wow, 230 T-72s is a very big number. I wonder how the already demoralised Russian army will handle the new barrage of firepower being handed to the Ukrainians.
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
The eminent economist Adam Posen this week estimated that 80% of UK inflation is attributable to Brexit…
…As Posen pungently expressed it, the UK is “running a natural experiment in what happens when you run a trade war on yourself”. The results so far, his data also suggest, show just how damaging it is…
… Thus, faced with a burgeoning economic crisis, this post-Brexit government is bereft of workable ideas. Its flagship policy has proved an economic dud, but it is inherent in the government’s very formation to be unable to admit that, or to produce any policies that might ameliorate it. Having smashed up the old order, all they can do is stare in slack-jawed bemusement at the rubble around them, like a convention of peculiarly vandalistic village idiots who accidentally got control of a wrecking-ball...
… Meanwhile, the astonishingly dangerous political trick the government used to ‘get Brexit done’ has blown up in its face. That, of course, was agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) which it is clear the government never intended to honour, and which it sold to its MPs as a supposedly temporary measure. Yet, at the very same time, it was sold to the electorate as part of the ’oven-ready deal’ which would put an end to all the boring Brexit wrangling. Worse still, it was signed as an international treaty with the EU, which certainly didn’t regard it as temporary, any more than does the US.
This was done quite knowingly and entirely cynically, and it’s very difficult to think of any equivalent trickery in modern British political history in terms of that combination of national and international dishonesty. Not only was it dishonest, it was actually – I don’t use this word casually – wicked in that the patsy in this trick was, and is, the people of Northern Ireland and the fragile politics of their hard-won peace…
After savaging the NI shenanigans he concludes:
And so it goes on, year after year after wretched year. All the fantasies, lies and denials that permeated the dreadful referendum campaign six long years ago are still running into the rock of the realities of international trade and international relations. The government has no solutions because it has never been a government in any real sense of the term, just a vehicle for precisely the fantasies and denials of that campaign.
Sounds like a bitter Remoaner though, so all that can probably be safely ignored.
UK inflation rate 6.2%
If 80% of that is attributable to Brexit, then that means baseline inflation ought to be 1.2% with Brexit contributing 5.0% of inflation.
While its not a direct control group, its close enough to check against the Eurozone for comparison. Their current inflation rate is 7.5%
Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 1.2%? Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 6.2%?
No can't be safely ignored, should be roundly ridiculed instead.
One of the stupidest things I’ve ever seen. Stockholm Syndrome infects economics
I’m right now in the USA. The inflation rate here is 8.5% and everyone talks of it. I hear a lot of smarter people saying ‘thank God we didn’t do Amerexit or it would be 13.5%’
If you read what he actually said he is talking about inflation forecasts for next year, and why the UK is expected to see more persistent inflation than other countries, not the current inflation rate. Whether he is right or not is a different question, I suspect he is exaggerating the size of the effect but is right about the direction. I know Posen a bit and he has a tendency towards headline-grabbing self-promotion at the expense of serious and measured economic analysis. In other words, I would tend to discount what he says.
The thing is, there's the beginnings of a good point in what he highlights, it's just not the one he makes.
The government (and governments across Europe) should be doing far more to seize opportunities to reduce prices in the medium term, for example by cutting taxes, regulation, energy bills, barriers to trade and competition and so on.
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
Trying to think of a parallel period in British political history to where we are now in 2022.
1962.
Tories into their third term with their third consecutive PM - an Old Etonian actor manager.
Labour with a relatively new leader.
Two years later the actor-manager PM has been replaced by a new PM, who then loses, narrowly, to Labour in the 1964 General Election.
Anyone find a better match?
Agreed, the next general election will be more 1964 than 1997 if Labour do win.
2022 is unprecedented in multiple ways. We’re emerging (in’s’Allah) from an immense global plague. We face global Cold War, and European Hot War. We are on the cusp of Artificial Intelligence. Etc etc etc. The world is changing at enormous speed, possibly faster than at any time in human history
This is not ‘1964’. It is itself
1964 was just after the Cuban Missile Crisis at the height of the Cold War. There was also the growth of TV and the emergence of the computer and the Space race etc and the cultural revolution of the 1960s
Things moved quite quickly in the 1960s. That does not preclude them moving even faster now. Much faster
AI is much overblown.
This article in the Atlantic is quite interesting on Google Translate. Now don't get me wrong, Google Translate is a great tool, very useful etc. But it's a million miles away from human intelligence.
Which suggests we really are close to proper AI, if not there already
Anybody claiming GPT3 is "proper" AI, is quite frankly an idiot. Its highly impressive, as is DALLE-2, but its not intelligent. They are giant transformers. Yes that means they can create a sentence or a picture never been written or drawn before, but it has no concept of what that sentence means, if it actually makes sense, if it doesn't how to correct it, etc etc etc. They can't adapt to a changing world without total retraining of the whole giant network.
Hence, the Turing Test
You should know this. At some point (very soon, I suspect) the output of Neural Networks like GPT4 will be indistinguishable from human communication and creativity. At that juncture, the question as to whether they are actually ‘intelligent’ will become an abstruse debate for theologians and philosophers. They will appear, seem, act, speak, draw, sing, joke, create and behave as if they are humanly intelligent. They will then be, to all intents and purposes, intelligent
It will get REALLY spooky when they are obviously MORE ‘intelligent’. That’s coming, as well
Will all due respect to Turing, who was clearly a genius, his test is rubbish.
The Benpointer test is much better: AI needs to load and the dishwasher properly. Then unload it and put away all the crockery and cutlery in the right place.
Heck, Mrs J doesn't pass that one!
(Her idea of washing the dishes is to load the dishwasher, forget to turn it on, and forever just fetch stuff out of the dishwasher as and when needed, washing each one by hand. The dishwasher is often just a store for dirty plates and cutlery.)
The proportion without a passport or driving license is 24%, 11m adults.
"Approximately 3.5m electors (7.5% of the electorate) would have none of the forms of photo ID highlighted, i.e. 92.5% of electors would already have at least one form of acceptable photo ID. "
That feels about right.
Also, that Electoral Commission that apparently is so inimical to the interests of the Tories that they have to take control of it? They've been recommending photo ID for voting since 2014.
Waste of money - tick Bureaucratic - tick Highly paid jobs for quangos - tick Potential to pay an outsourcing firm even more for poor performance - tick "Solving" a problem that does not exist on any substantial level - tick
Surprised to see so many fans of less government intervention being so much in favour of such a policy......
The eminent economist Adam Posen this week estimated that 80% of UK inflation is attributable to Brexit…
…As Posen pungently expressed it, the UK is “running a natural experiment in what happens when you run a trade war on yourself”. The results so far, his data also suggest, show just how damaging it is…
… Thus, faced with a burgeoning economic crisis, this post-Brexit government is bereft of workable ideas. Its flagship policy has proved an economic dud, but it is inherent in the government’s very formation to be unable to admit that, or to produce any policies that might ameliorate it. Having smashed up the old order, all they can do is stare in slack-jawed bemusement at the rubble around them, like a convention of peculiarly vandalistic village idiots who accidentally got control of a wrecking-ball...
… Meanwhile, the astonishingly dangerous political trick the government used to ‘get Brexit done’ has blown up in its face. That, of course, was agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) which it is clear the government never intended to honour, and which it sold to its MPs as a supposedly temporary measure. Yet, at the very same time, it was sold to the electorate as part of the ’oven-ready deal’ which would put an end to all the boring Brexit wrangling. Worse still, it was signed as an international treaty with the EU, which certainly didn’t regard it as temporary, any more than does the US.
This was done quite knowingly and entirely cynically, and it’s very difficult to think of any equivalent trickery in modern British political history in terms of that combination of national and international dishonesty. Not only was it dishonest, it was actually – I don’t use this word casually – wicked in that the patsy in this trick was, and is, the people of Northern Ireland and the fragile politics of their hard-won peace…
After savaging the NI shenanigans he concludes:
And so it goes on, year after year after wretched year. All the fantasies, lies and denials that permeated the dreadful referendum campaign six long years ago are still running into the rock of the realities of international trade and international relations. The government has no solutions because it has never been a government in any real sense of the term, just a vehicle for precisely the fantasies and denials of that campaign.
Sounds like a bitter Remoaner though, so all that can probably be safely ignored.
UK inflation rate 6.2%
If 80% of that is attributable to Brexit, then that means baseline inflation ought to be 1.2% with Brexit contributing 5.0% of inflation.
While its not a direct control group, its close enough to check against the Eurozone for comparison. Their current inflation rate is 7.5%
Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 1.2%? Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 6.2%?
No can't be safely ignored, should be roundly ridiculed instead.
I wish I could pronounce so authoritatively on such a wide range of intricate specialisms as you do. I doff my cap to an intellectual titan.
But it’s fucking obvious. Why is the French inflation rate 5.4%? Why is the German inflation rate 7.3%? Why is the American inflation rate 8.5%?
Did they all exit the European Union or is that guy you cite a screaming Remoaner moron almost as stupid as you?
You’re a silver tongued charmer, that’s why I like you.
I don’t profess to understand economics. I’m a despicable, maybe even stupid, humanities grad. But I am more inclined to listen to the findings of a professional, respected economist (who’s findings, as I noted, happily reinforce my bias) rather than shouty blokes on the internet.
“I don’t profess to understand economics.”
No kidding
Not a good response to a rather humourous, logical, self depricating post by @northern_monkey
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
Agree Britannia and DofE should be favourite. If not those, I can see them going for a trade link and looking at Golden Hind or similar.
Agree with the main premise though. It’ll be something “low brow” historical. A name everyone knows that tests well in focus groups.
Part at least of the time the Golden Hind was engaged in piracy wasn't it?
So maybe......
And slavery and genocide. Drake is a local hero and was born just down the road, but he was not a nice bloke (and not in a way which is defensible by "different standards in those days" arguments)
HMS Kyiv?
Nash'nal 'ero though. Beat them Spaniards, didn't he. Frew bowls at 'em or something.
The eminent economist Adam Posen this week estimated that 80% of UK inflation is attributable to Brexit…
…As Posen pungently expressed it, the UK is “running a natural experiment in what happens when you run a trade war on yourself”. The results so far, his data also suggest, show just how damaging it is…
… Thus, faced with a burgeoning economic crisis, this post-Brexit government is bereft of workable ideas. Its flagship policy has proved an economic dud, but it is inherent in the government’s very formation to be unable to admit that, or to produce any policies that might ameliorate it. Having smashed up the old order, all they can do is stare in slack-jawed bemusement at the rubble around them, like a convention of peculiarly vandalistic village idiots who accidentally got control of a wrecking-ball...
… Meanwhile, the astonishingly dangerous political trick the government used to ‘get Brexit done’ has blown up in its face. That, of course, was agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) which it is clear the government never intended to honour, and which it sold to its MPs as a supposedly temporary measure. Yet, at the very same time, it was sold to the electorate as part of the ’oven-ready deal’ which would put an end to all the boring Brexit wrangling. Worse still, it was signed as an international treaty with the EU, which certainly didn’t regard it as temporary, any more than does the US.
This was done quite knowingly and entirely cynically, and it’s very difficult to think of any equivalent trickery in modern British political history in terms of that combination of national and international dishonesty. Not only was it dishonest, it was actually – I don’t use this word casually – wicked in that the patsy in this trick was, and is, the people of Northern Ireland and the fragile politics of their hard-won peace…
After savaging the NI shenanigans he concludes:
And
Sounds like a bitter Remoaner though, so all that can probably be safely ignored.
UK inflation rate 6.2%
If 80% of that is attributable to Brexit, then that means baseline inflation ought to be 1.2% with Brexit contributing 5.0% of inflation.
While its not a direct control group, its close enough to check against the Eurozone for comparison. Their current inflation rate is 7.5%
Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 1.2%? Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 6.2%?
No can't be safely ignored, should be roundly ridiculed instead.
I wish I could pronounce so authoritatively on such a wide range of intricate specialisms as you do. I doff my cap to an intellectual titan.
But it’s fucking obvious. Why is the French inflation rate 5.4%? Why is the German inflation rate 7.3%? Why is the American inflation rate 8.5%?
Did they all exit the European Union or is that guy you cite a screaming Remoaner moron almost as stupid as you?
You’re a silver tongued charmer, that’s why I like you.
I don’t profess to understand economics. I’m a despicable, maybe even stupid, humanities grad. But I am more inclined to listen to the findings of a professional, respected economist (who’s findings, as I noted, happily reinforce my bias) rather than shouty blokes on the internet.
“I don’t profess to understand economics.”
No kidding
Love you too, Leon. Hope you’re enjoying your current trip.
Putting aside my ignorance of economics and my archaic, naive, willingness to listen to experts, can we all then agree with the Remoaner moron’s subsequent argument that this is a shit government? Surely we can find sweet accord and amity on that point?
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
not the tories doing the arresting. When you are pouncing on documents you think might be destroyed you have to move asap. It's not like announcing FPNs where you already have all your evidence anyway.
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
Is there already an HMS Duke of York?
No; WW2 battleship scrapped in the 1950s. For some reason which I cannot imagine, there was no York in the "Duke of"* series of Type 23 frigates, marking the MoD's shift to cringing snobbery in warship naming culminating in the two aircraft carriers.
*In practice, only the estate name was used eg HMS Grafton, but the presence of such names as HMS Iron Duke and HMS St Albans make the intent clear, as does the 'Duke Class' moniker.
The eminent economist Adam Posen this week estimated that 80% of UK inflation is attributable to Brexit…
…As Posen pungently expressed it, the UK is “running a natural experiment in what happens when you run a trade war on yourself”. The results so far, his data also suggest, show just how damaging it is…
… Thus, faced with a burgeoning economic crisis, this post-Brexit government is bereft of workable ideas. Its flagship policy has proved an economic dud, but it is inherent in the government’s very formation to be unable to admit that, or to produce any policies that might ameliorate it. Having smashed up the old order, all they can do is stare in slack-jawed bemusement at the rubble around them, like a convention of peculiarly vandalistic village idiots who accidentally got control of a wrecking-ball...
… Meanwhile, the astonishingly dangerous political trick the government used to ‘get Brexit done’ has blown up in its face. That, of course, was agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) which it is clear the government never intended to honour, and which it sold to its MPs as a supposedly temporary measure. Yet, at the very same time, it was sold to the electorate as part of the ’oven-ready deal’ which would put an end to all the boring Brexit wrangling. Worse still, it was signed as an international treaty with the EU, which certainly didn’t regard it as temporary, any more than does the US.
This was done quite knowingly and entirely cynically, and it’s very difficult to think of any equivalent trickery in modern British political history in terms of that combination of national and international dishonesty. Not only was it dishonest, it was actually – I don’t use this word casually – wicked in that the patsy in this trick was, and is, the people of Northern Ireland and the fragile politics of their hard-won peace…
After savaging the NI shenanigans he concludes:
And so it goes on, year after year after wretched year. All the fantasies, lies and denials that permeated the dreadful referendum campaign six long years ago are still running into the rock of the realities of international trade and international relations. The government has no solutions because it has never been a government in any real sense of the term, just a vehicle for precisely the fantasies and denials of that campaign.
Sounds like a bitter Remoaner though, so all that can probably be safely ignored.
UK inflation rate 6.2%
If 80% of that is attributable to Brexit, then that means baseline inflation ought to be 1.2% with Brexit contributing 5.0% of inflation.
While its not a direct control group, its close enough to check against the Eurozone for comparison. Their current inflation rate is 7.5%
Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 1.2%? Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 6.2%?
No can't be safely ignored, should be roundly ridiculed instead.
I wish I could pronounce so authoritatively on such a wide range of intricate specialisms as you do. I doff my cap to an intellectual titan.
But it’s fucking obvious. Why is the French inflation rate 5.4%? Why is the German inflation rate 7.3%? Why is the American inflation rate 8.5%?
Did they all exit the European Union or is that guy you cite a screaming Remoaner moron almost as stupid as you?
Gas price shock owing to events in a faraway country of which even Dominic Raab might now have heard? Read the sodding link.
Doesnt explain the US and their high inflation
The printing of cash to get us through COVID on top of years of QE clearly cannot have helped either.
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
In Scotland the police seem to have become a wing of the SNP.
I have no problem with ID cards . In most EU countries you have show them when you vote . The difference is there is no GB ID card . The governments ID requirements to vote are not about fraud but voter suppression in groups that normally do not vote Tory .
Often asserted, never proven.
Yes if only the bill had been called the Voter Suppression Bill, then we would have known for certain. As it is I suppose the government deserve the benefit of the doubt, given their consistent pattern of honest behaviour... Oh, wait.
I mean, some evidence would be nice. Why do you think "groups that normally do not vote Tory" are too stupid to get a free voter ID even if they don't already have some sort of photo ID (which the vast majority of people do)?
Not a question of being stupid. A question of time, effort, organisation. The point is that younger voters and poorer voters are less likely to have either of the two forms of photo ID that most of us have, a passport or driving license, and so these are the people who will have to get a new ID just to be able to vote. Yet these are also the groups already least likely to vote, and so I would imagine that many won't have the motivation to get the ID, even if perhaps on the day they might have been persuaded to vote. Coincidentally they are also the groups least likely to vote Tory. Meanwhile, impersonation (pretending to be someone else when voting) is an almost non-existent problem. So you are creating a much bigger problem (preventing registered voters from voting on a technicality) to solve a much smaller problem, in a way that will advantage the party that is changing the law. It is voter suppression. It stinks.
I don't think younger voters are less likely to have a driving licence, are they? Certainly when I was that age it was standard for everyone to get their provisional licence as early as they could.
Anecdotal, but I have four kids, aged 29-33. They live in a city. Only one of them has a driving licence. They use public transport and Uber. Owning a car would be a) too expensive, and/or b) not worth the hassle.
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
IoM also involved, though I have no idea if that is significant.
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
You’d hope so. Especially those working with the NAO on the pandemic-era emergency contracts, and the various grant and loan schemes.
Those who have clearly misappropriated government funds, need to be held accountable.
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
🤣 . .
You seem in a bit of a tangle here. Ask yourself your own question: if they are in the pocket of the tories why would they do this?
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
not the tories doing the arresting. When you are pouncing on documents you think might be destroyed you have to move asap. It's not like announcing FPNs where you already have all your evidence anyway.
I put my hand up and say I got it wrong then. When the minister resigned he blamed government for not acting on the fraud quickly enough, not the police, so I made the assumption action to claw the stolen billions back (in suitcases being sneaked out country according to press reports) would be instigated and pushed by government not by police.
I have no problem with ID cards . In most EU countries you have show them when you vote . The difference is there is no GB ID card . The governments ID requirements to vote are not about fraud but voter suppression in groups that normally do not vote Tory .
Often asserted, never proven.
Yes if only the bill had been called the Voter Suppression Bill, then we would have known for certain. As it is I suppose the government deserve the benefit of the doubt, given their consistent pattern of honest behaviour... Oh, wait.
I mean, some evidence would be nice. Why do you think "groups that normally do not vote Tory" are too stupid to get a free voter ID even if they don't already have some sort of photo ID (which the vast majority of people do)?
Not a question of being stupid. A question of time, effort, organisation. The point is that younger voters and poorer voters are less likely to have either of the two forms of photo ID that most of us have, a passport or driving license, and so these are the people who will have to get a new ID just to be able to vote. Yet these are also the groups already least likely to vote, and so I would imagine that many won't have the motivation to get the ID, even if perhaps on the day they might have been persuaded to vote. Coincidentally they are also the groups least likely to vote Tory. Meanwhile, impersonation (pretending to be someone else when voting) is an almost non-existent problem. So you are creating a much bigger problem (preventing registered voters from voting on a technicality) to solve a much smaller problem, in a way that will advantage the party that is changing the law. It is voter suppression. It stinks.
I don't think younger voters are less likely to have a driving licence, are they? Certainly when I was that age it was standard for everyone to get their provisional licence as early as they could.
Anecdotal, but I have four kids, aged 29-33. They live in a city. Only one of them has a driving licence. They use public transport and Uber. Owning a car would be a) too expensive, and/or b) not worth the hassle.
As did I, at that age when I lived in the city. And yet I still had a driving licence because it was a damned useful piece of photo ID.
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
HMS Caligula, which was actually a ship of the line in the 1800's, and had the motto "Oderint dum metuant" painted on the side "Let them hate me, so long as they fear me."
The eminent economist Adam Posen this week estimated that 80% of UK inflation is attributable to Brexit…
…As Posen pungently expressed it, the UK is “running a natural experiment in what happens when you run a trade war on yourself”. The results so far, his data also suggest, show just how damaging it is…
… Thus, faced with a burgeoning economic crisis, this post-Brexit government is bereft of workable ideas. Its flagship policy has proved an economic dud, but it is inherent in the government’s very formation to be unable to admit that, or to produce any policies that might ameliorate it. Having smashed up the old order, all they can do is stare in slack-jawed bemusement at the rubble around them, like a convention of peculiarly vandalistic village idiots who accidentally got control of a wrecking-ball...
… Meanwhile, the astonishingly dangerous political trick the government used to ‘get Brexit done’ has blown up in its face. That, of course, was agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) which it is clear the government never intended to honour, and which it sold to its MPs as a supposedly temporary measure. Yet, at the very same time, it was sold to the electorate as part of the ’oven-ready deal’ which would put an end to all the boring Brexit wrangling. Worse still, it was signed as an international treaty with the EU, which certainly didn’t regard it as temporary, any more than does the US.
This was done quite knowingly and entirely cynically, and it’s very difficult to think of any equivalent trickery in modern British political history in terms of that combination of national and international dishonesty. Not only was it dishonest, it was actually – I don’t use this word casually – wicked in that the patsy in this trick was, and is, the people of Northern Ireland and the fragile politics of their hard-won peace…
After savaging the NI shenanigans he concludes:
And so it goes on, year after year after wretched year. All the fantasies, lies and denials that permeated the dreadful referendum campaign six long years ago are still running into the rock of the realities of international trade and international relations. The government has no solutions because it has never been a government in any real sense of the term, just a vehicle for precisely the fantasies and denials of that campaign.
Sounds like a bitter Remoaner though, so all that can probably be safely ignored.
UK inflation rate 6.2%
If 80% of that is attributable to Brexit, then that means baseline inflation ought to be 1.2% with Brexit contributing 5.0% of inflation.
While its not a direct control group, its close enough to check against the Eurozone for comparison. Their current inflation rate is 7.5%
Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 1.2%? Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 6.2%?
No can't be safely ignored, should be roundly ridiculed instead.
I wish I could pronounce so authoritatively on such a wide range of intricate specialisms as you do. I doff my cap to an intellectual titan.
But it’s fucking obvious. Why is the French inflation rate 5.4%? Why is the German inflation rate 7.3%? Why is the American inflation rate 8.5%?
Did they all exit the European Union or is that guy you cite a screaming Remoaner moron almost as stupid as you?
Gas price shock owing to events in a faraway country of which even Dominic Raab might now have heard? Read the sodding link.
Doesnt explain the US and their high inflation
The printing of cash to get us through COVID on top of years of QE clearly cannot have helped either.
Wage price Inflation was a really big deal after the Black Death. Lack of willing labour
A once in a century pandemic which has killed 20 million people worldwide, disrupted global supply chains, still paralyses China (the biggest trader) and has sent tens of millions into hospital/retirement/chronic illness is a bigger influence on inflation than Brexit, by an order of magnitude
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
HMS Brexit. Guaranteed to sink on its maiden voyage after it trains its guns on itself.
HMS House of Lords? Bloated, expensive and largely pointless.
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
Agree Britannia and DofE should be favourite. If not those, I can see them going for a trade link and looking at Golden Hind or similar.
Agree with the main premise though. It’ll be something “low brow” historical. A name everyone knows that tests well in focus groups.
Part at least of the time the Golden Hind was engaged in piracy wasn't it?
So maybe......
And slavery and genocide. Drake is a local hero and was born just down the road, but he was not a nice bloke (and not in a way which is defensible by "different standards in those days" arguments)
HMS Kyiv?
Nash'nal 'ero though. Beat them Spaniards, didn't he. Frew bowls at 'em or something.
That was his girlfriend. Local chick - a Plymouth ho.
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
In Scotland the police seem to have become a wing of the SNP.
"seem to have"
I think the words "seem to" are probably not needed
https://twitter.com/ThomasPride/status/1519898855927603201 “If I am ever asked to produce my ID card as evidence that I am who I say I am I will take that card out of my wallet and physically eat it in the presence of whatever emanation of the state has demanded that I produce it.” @BorisJohnson 2004.
Yesterday Johnson passed a law ...
... making it compulsory for voters to produce photo ID when voting.
Isn’t that opposition to ID cards rather than opposition to photo ID? Otherwise he’d have to eat his passport every time he came back from abroad.
Exactly. I'm yet to hear any justification from opponents of this change why voting should be less secure than picking up a parcel from the sorting office.
If this law passes I expect labour to reciprocate. 'No donations larger than £1000 a year' 'No donations from companies' 'Use census data for divvying up constituently boundaries 'Automatic voter registration' 'Votes for 16 year olds' etc etc
If you want to Americanise the system fine. But in a decade when the electoral pendulum has swung...
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
In Scotland the police seem to have become a wing of the SNP.
This is UK and IoM government stuff we are talking about. You do realise Lady Mone isn't in Scotland any more. She is famous for two things, including because she threatened to leave Scotland if Yes won indyref, and then when No won ...
Trying to think of a parallel period in British political history to where we are now in 2022.
1962.
Tories into their third term with their third consecutive PM - an Old Etonian actor manager.
Labour with a relatively new leader.
Two years later the actor-manager PM has been replaced by a new PM, who then loses, narrowly, to Labour in the 1964 General Election.
Anyone find a better match?
Agreed, the next general election will be more 1964 than 1997 if Labour do win.
2022 is unprecedented in multiple ways. We’re emerging (in’s’Allah) from an immense global plague. We face global Cold War, and European Hot War. We are on the cusp of Artificial Intelligence. Etc etc etc. The world is changing at enormous speed, possibly faster than at any time in human history
This is not ‘1964’. It is itself
1964 was just after the Cuban Missile Crisis at the height of the Cold War. There was also the growth of TV and the emergence of the computer and the Space race etc and the cultural revolution of the 1960s
Things moved quite quickly in the 1960s. That does not preclude them moving even faster now. Much faster
AI is much overblown.
This article in the Atlantic is quite interesting on Google Translate. Now don't get me wrong, Google Translate is a great tool, very useful etc. But it's a million miles away from human intelligence.
Which suggests we really are close to proper AI, if not there already
Anybody claiming GPT3 is "proper" AI, is quite frankly an idiot. Its highly impressive, as is DALLE-2, but its not intelligent. They are giant transformers. Yes that means they can create a sentence or a picture never been written or drawn before, but it has no concept of what that sentence means, if it actually makes sense, if it doesn't how to correct it, etc etc etc. They can't adapt to a changing world without total retraining of the whole giant network.
Hence, the Turing Test
You should know this. At some point (very soon, I suspect) the output of Neural Networks like GPT4 will be indistinguishable from human communication and creativity. At that juncture, the question as to whether they are actually ‘intelligent’ will become an abstruse debate for theologians and philosophers. They will appear, seem, act, speak, draw, sing, joke, create and behave as if they are humanly intelligent. They will then be, to all intents and purposes, intelligent
It will get REALLY spooky when they are obviously MORE ‘intelligent’. That’s coming, as well
Will all due respect to Turing, who was clearly a genius, his test is rubbish.
The Benpointer test is much better: AI needs to load and the dishwasher properly. Then unload it and put away all the crockery and cutlery in the right place.
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
In Scotland the police seem to have become a wing of the SNP.
"seem to have"
I think the words "seem to" are probably not needed
YOu think so? A minority government? You two are just projecting your fantasies.
I have no problem with ID cards . In most EU countries you have show them when you vote . The difference is there is no GB ID card . The governments ID requirements to vote are not about fraud but voter suppression in groups that normally do not vote Tory .
Often asserted, never proven.
Yes if only the bill had been called the Voter Suppression Bill, then we would have known for certain. As it is I suppose the government deserve the benefit of the doubt, given their consistent pattern of honest behaviour... Oh, wait.
I mean, some evidence would be nice. Why do you think "groups that normally do not vote Tory" are too stupid to get a free voter ID even if they don't already have some sort of photo ID (which the vast majority of people do)?
Not a question of being stupid. A question of time, effort, organisation. The point is that younger voters and poorer voters are less likely to have either of the two forms of photo ID that most of us have, a passport or driving license, and so these are the people who will have to get a new ID just to be able to vote. Yet these are also the groups already least likely to vote, and so I would imagine that many won't have the motivation to get the ID, even if perhaps on the day they might have been persuaded to vote. Coincidentally they are also the groups least likely to vote Tory. Meanwhile, impersonation (pretending to be someone else when voting) is an almost non-existent problem. So you are creating a much bigger problem (preventing registered voters from voting on a technicality) to solve a much smaller problem, in a way that will advantage the party that is changing the law. It is voter suppression. It stinks.
I don't think younger voters are less likely to have a driving licence, are they? Certainly when I was that age it was standard for everyone to get their provisional licence as early as they could.
Anecdotal, but I have four kids, aged 29-33. They live in a city. Only one of them has a driving licence. They use public transport and Uber. Owning a car would be a) too expensive, and/or b) not worth the hassle.
It's not 'just' the car, either. It's insuring, and storing it when not in use.
For many years we had two cars, wife and self, although latterly car was work-provided. When I retired we didn't replace the work one, and in the 19 years since I think we've used taxis twice, other than airport runs. Otherwise we've used the bus, or train, or begged lifts. And, of course, given them gladly.
I have no problem with ID cards . In most EU countries you have show them when you vote . The difference is there is no GB ID card . The governments ID requirements to vote are not about fraud but voter suppression in groups that normally do not vote Tory .
Often asserted, never proven.
Yes if only the bill had been called the Voter Suppression Bill, then we would have known for certain. As it is I suppose the government deserve the benefit of the doubt, given their consistent pattern of honest behaviour... Oh, wait.
I mean, some evidence would be nice. Why do you think "groups that normally do not vote Tory" are too stupid to get a free voter ID even if they don't already have some sort of photo ID (which the vast majority of people do)?
Not a question of being stupid. A question of time, effort, organisation. The point is that younger voters and poorer voters are less likely to have either of the two forms of photo ID that most of us have, a passport or driving license, and so these are the people who will have to get a new ID just to be able to vote. Yet these are also the groups already least likely to vote, and so I would imagine that many won't have the motivation to get the ID, even if perhaps on the day they might have been persuaded to vote. Coincidentally they are also the groups least likely to vote Tory. Meanwhile, impersonation (pretending to be someone else when voting) is an almost non-existent problem. So you are creating a much bigger problem (preventing registered voters from voting on a technicality) to solve a much smaller problem, in a way that will advantage the party that is changing the law. It is voter suppression. It stinks.
I don't think younger voters are less likely to have a driving licence, are they? Certainly when I was that age it was standard for everyone to get their provisional licence as early as they could.
Anecdotal, but I have four kids, aged 29-33. They live in a city. Only one of them has a driving licence. They use public transport and Uber. Owning a car would be a) too expensive, and/or b) not worth the hassle.
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
🤣 . .
You seem in a bit of a tangle here. Ask yourself your own question: if they are in the pocket of the tories why would they do this?
Lady Mone has an awfully Arcuri look about her.
Yeah I admit I have a tangle to untingle today. I was under impression police are in perder ahead of the elections, can’t issue any more Downing St fines until after voting etc so same police raiding homes of Tory politicians on eve of voting sits awkward with that?
I have no problem with ID cards . In most EU countries you have show them when you vote . The difference is there is no GB ID card . The governments ID requirements to vote are not about fraud but voter suppression in groups that normally do not vote Tory .
Often asserted, never proven.
Yes if only the bill had been called the Voter Suppression Bill, then we would have known for certain. As it is I suppose the government deserve the benefit of the doubt, given their consistent pattern of honest behaviour... Oh, wait.
I mean, some evidence would be nice. Why do you think "groups that normally do not vote Tory" are too stupid to get a free voter ID even if they don't already have some sort of photo ID (which the vast majority of people do)?
Not a question of being stupid. A question of time, effort, organisation. The point is that younger voters and poorer voters are less likely to have either of the two forms of photo ID that most of us have, a passport or driving license, and so these are the people who will have to get a new ID just to be able to vote. Yet these are also the groups already least likely to vote, and so I would imagine that many won't have the motivation to get the ID, even if perhaps on the day they might have been persuaded to vote. Coincidentally they are also the groups least likely to vote Tory. Meanwhile, impersonation (pretending to be someone else when voting) is an almost non-existent problem. So you are creating a much bigger problem (preventing registered voters from voting on a technicality) to solve a much smaller problem, in a way that will advantage the party that is changing the law. It is voter suppression. It stinks.
I don't think younger voters are less likely to have a driving licence, are they? Certainly when I was that age it was standard for everyone to get their provisional licence as early as they could.
Anecdotal, but I have four kids, aged 29-33. They live in a city. Only one of them has a driving licence. They use public transport and Uber. Owning a car would be a) too expensive, and/or b) not worth the hassle.
Don’t they want to hire a car when they explore foreign countries?
I find this rather sad. I’ve seen so much of the world simply because I’ve been able to rent a car and get out there. The USA, where I am now, is virtually impossible to see, properly, if you can’t drive
The next generation must hope we get self-driving cars very soon. They might just be lucky
The eminent economist Adam Posen this week estimated that 80% of UK inflation is attributable to Brexit…
…As Posen pungently expressed it, the UK is “running a natural experiment in what happens when you run a trade war on yourself”. The results so far, his data also suggest, show just how damaging it is…
… Thus, faced with a burgeoning economic crisis, this post-Brexit government is bereft of workable ideas. Its flagship policy has proved an economic dud, but it is inherent in the government’s very formation to be unable to admit that, or to produce any policies that might ameliorate it. Having smashed up the old order, all they can do is stare in slack-jawed bemusement at the rubble around them, like a convention of peculiarly vandalistic village idiots who accidentally got control of a wrecking-ball...
… Meanwhile, the astonishingly dangerous political trick the government used to ‘get Brexit done’ has blown up in its face. That, of course, was agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) which it is clear the government never intended to honour, and which it sold to its MPs as a supposedly temporary measure. Yet, at the very same time, it was sold to the electorate as part of the ’oven-ready deal’ which would put an end to all the boring Brexit wrangling. Worse still, it was signed as an international treaty with the EU, which certainly didn’t regard it as temporary, any more than does the US.
This was done quite knowingly and entirely cynically, and it’s very difficult to think of any equivalent trickery in modern British political history in terms of that combination of national and international dishonesty. Not only was it dishonest, it was actually – I don’t use this word casually – wicked in that the patsy in this trick was, and is, the people of Northern Ireland and the fragile politics of their hard-won peace…
After savaging the NI shenanigans he concludes:
And so it goes on, year after year after wretched year. All the fantasies, lies and denials that permeated the dreadful referendum campaign six long years ago are still running into the rock of the realities of international trade and international relations. The government has no solutions because it has never been a government in any real sense of the term, just a vehicle for precisely the fantasies and denials of that campaign.
Sounds like a bitter Remoaner though, so all that can probably be safely ignored.
UK inflation rate 6.2%
If 80% of that is attributable to Brexit, then that means baseline inflation ought to be 1.2% with Brexit contributing 5.0% of inflation.
While its not a direct control group, its close enough to check against the Eurozone for comparison. Their current inflation rate is 7.5%
Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 1.2%? Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 6.2%?
No can't be safely ignored, should be roundly ridiculed instead.
I wish I could pronounce so authoritatively on such a wide range of intricate specialisms as you do. I doff my cap to an intellectual titan.
But it’s fucking obvious. Why is the French inflation rate 5.4%? Why is the German inflation rate 7.3%? Why is the American inflation rate 8.5%?
Did they all exit the European Union or is that guy you cite a screaming Remoaner moron almost as stupid as you?
Gas price shock owing to events in a faraway country of which even Dominic Raab might now have heard? Read the sodding link.
Doesnt explain the US and their high inflation
The printing of cash to get us through COVID on top of years of QE clearly cannot have helped either.
Wage price Inflation was a really big deal after the Black Death. Lack of willing labour
A once in a century pandemic which has killed 20 million people worldwide, disrupted global supply chains, still paralyses China (the biggest trader) and has sent tens of millions into hospital/retirement/chronic illness is a bigger influence on inflation than Brexit, by an order of magnitude
This stuff isn’t hard
Took a long time though. Hence Peasants revolt in 1381 (fully 33 years later).
The eminent economist Adam Posen this week estimated that 80% of UK inflation is attributable to Brexit…
…As Posen pungently expressed it, the UK is “running a natural experiment in what happens when you run a trade war on yourself”. The results so far, his data also suggest, show just how damaging it is…
… Thus, faced with a burgeoning economic crisis, this post-Brexit government is bereft of workable ideas. Its flagship policy has proved an economic dud, but it is inherent in the government’s very formation to be unable to admit that, or to produce any policies that might ameliorate it. Having smashed up the old order, all they can do is stare in slack-jawed bemusement at the rubble around them, like a convention of peculiarly vandalistic village idiots who accidentally got control of a wrecking-ball...
… Meanwhile, the astonishingly dangerous political trick the government used to ‘get Brexit done’ has blown up in its face. That, of course, was agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) which it is clear the government never intended to honour, and which it sold to its MPs as a supposedly temporary measure. Yet, at the very same time, it was sold to the electorate as part of the ’oven-ready deal’ which would put an end to all the boring Brexit wrangling. Worse still, it was signed as an international treaty with the EU, which certainly didn’t regard it as temporary, any more than does the US.
This was done quite knowingly and entirely cynically, and it’s very difficult to think of any equivalent trickery in modern British political history in terms of that combination of national and international dishonesty. Not only was it dishonest, it was actually – I don’t use this word casually – wicked in that the patsy in this trick was, and is, the people of Northern Ireland and the fragile politics of their hard-won peace…
After savaging the NI shenanigans he concludes:
And so it goes on, year after year after wretched year. All the fantasies, lies and denials that permeated the dreadful referendum campaign six long years ago are still running into the rock of the realities of international trade and international relations. The government has no solutions because it has never been a government in any real sense of the term, just a vehicle for precisely the fantasies and denials of that campaign.
Sounds like a bitter Remoaner though, so all that can probably be safely ignored.
In this case, yes, as inflation is a problem in every major economy, due to the impact of pandemic and war.
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
Is there already an HMS Duke of York?
No; WW2 battleship scrapped in the 1950s. For some reason which I cannot imagine, there was no York in the "Duke of"* series of Type 23 frigates, marking the MoD's shift to cringing snobbery in warship naming culminating in the two aircraft carriers.
*In practice, only the estate name was used eg HMS Grafton, but the presence of such names as HMS Iron Duke and HMS St Albans make the intent clear, as does the 'Duke Class' moniker.
I got my watchkeeping ticket on Iron Duke on the North Sea in Jan-Feb. We put into Newcastle for a weekend so the crew could have a fight.
The eminent economist Adam Posen this week estimated that 80% of UK inflation is attributable to Brexit…
…As Posen pungently expressed it, the UK is “running a natural experiment in what happens when you run a trade war on yourself”. The results so far, his data also suggest, show just how damaging it is…
… Thus, faced with a burgeoning economic crisis, this post-Brexit government is bereft of workable ideas. Its flagship policy has proved an economic dud, but it is inherent in the government’s very formation to be unable to admit that, or to produce any policies that might ameliorate it. Having smashed up the old order, all they can do is stare in slack-jawed bemusement at the rubble around them, like a convention of peculiarly vandalistic village idiots who accidentally got control of a wrecking-ball...
… Meanwhile, the astonishingly dangerous political trick the government used to ‘get Brexit done’ has blown up in its face. That, of course, was agreeing to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) which it is clear the government never intended to honour, and which it sold to its MPs as a supposedly temporary measure. Yet, at the very same time, it was sold to the electorate as part of the ’oven-ready deal’ which would put an end to all the boring Brexit wrangling. Worse still, it was signed as an international treaty with the EU, which certainly didn’t regard it as temporary, any more than does the US.
This was done quite knowingly and entirely cynically, and it’s very difficult to think of any equivalent trickery in modern British political history in terms of that combination of national and international dishonesty. Not only was it dishonest, it was actually – I don’t use this word casually – wicked in that the patsy in this trick was, and is, the people of Northern Ireland and the fragile politics of their hard-won peace…
After savaging the NI shenanigans he concludes:
And so it goes on, year after year after wretched year. All the fantasies, lies and denials that permeated the dreadful referendum campaign six long years ago are still running into the rock of the realities of international trade and international relations. The government has no solutions because it has never been a government in any real sense of the term, just a vehicle for precisely the fantasies and denials of that campaign.
Sounds like a bitter Remoaner though, so all that can probably be safely ignored.
UK inflation rate 6.2%
If 80% of that is attributable to Brexit, then that means baseline inflation ought to be 1.2% with Brexit contributing 5.0% of inflation.
While its not a direct control group, its close enough to check against the Eurozone for comparison. Their current inflation rate is 7.5%
Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 1.2%? Is 7.5% considerably more or less than 6.2%?
No can't be safely ignored, should be roundly ridiculed instead.
I wish I could pronounce so authoritatively on such a wide range of intricate specialisms as you do. I doff my cap to an intellectual titan.
But it’s fucking obvious. Why is the French inflation rate 5.4%? Why is the German inflation rate 7.3%? Why is the American inflation rate 8.5%?
Did they all exit the European Union or is that guy you cite a screaming Remoaner moron almost as stupid as you?
Gas price shock owing to events in a faraway country of which even Dominic Raab might now have heard? Read the sodding link.
Doesnt explain the US and their high inflation
The printing of cash to get us through COVID on top of years of QE clearly cannot have helped either.
Wage price Inflation was a really big deal after the Black Death. Lack of willing labour
A once in a century pandemic which has killed 20 million people worldwide, disrupted global supply chains, still paralyses China (the biggest trader) and has sent tens of millions into hospital/retirement/chronic illness is a bigger influence on inflation than Brexit, by an order of magnitude
This stuff isn’t hard
Inflation was the Leavers' key boast: we now have to pay the hearty natives a proper wage instead of relying on dodgy immigrants who undercut everybody. Why are you degenerating one of Brexit's great achievements?
I saw this last night. Lady Bra isn’t it. My thought was why would the Tory’s arrest their own people for big fraud right on eve of important election so it’s fresh in voters minds as they vote. Before the minister of fraud resigned unhappy with inaction there didn’t seem any acknowledgement of problem, but they have timed action inappropriately for the elections.
Isn’t the national crime agency, and the police in general, at arms length from the government? So they haven’t timed anything at all.
🤣 . .
You seem in a bit of a tangle here. Ask yourself your own question: if they are in the pocket of the tories why would they do this?
Lady Mone has an awfully Arcuri look about her.
Yeah I admit I have a tangle to untingle today. I was under impression police are in perder ahead of the elections, can’t issue any more Downing St fines until after voting etc so same police raiding homes of Tory politicians on eve of voting sits awkward with that?
Yes, the Met Police are claiming that purdah applies to them. Which is a remarkable new interpretation of the law, and which occasioned some, erm, surprise when it was announced.
Is there a betting market for the name of the National Flegship? Johnson is supposed to reveal the design and name in time for the Diamond Jubilee/Funeral (delete as applicable).
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks) HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting) HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
Blowing gazillions on a replacement for the Royal Yacht Britannia is surely a symbol of a buoyant economy. A sign that lower taxes/better services are just around the corner?
Comments
The Benpointer test is much better: AI needs to load and the dishwasher properly. Then unload it and put away all the crockery and cutlery in the right place.
Did they all exit the European Union or is that guy you cite a screaming Remoaner moron almost as stupid as you?
Possibilities...
HMS Duke of Edinburgh (Queen said to be opposed to this I doubt Johnson gives a fuck what she thinks)
HMS Britannia (some continuity with the old asbestos ridden floating AA meeting)
HMS United Kingdom (very 'on brand' for this government and the favourite I reckon)
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25333751-700-meet-the-robots-that-can-reproduce-learn-and-evolve-all-by-themselves/
I know Posen a bit and he has a tendency towards headline-grabbing self-promotion at the expense of serious and measured economic analysis. In other words, I would tend to discount what he says.
The eminent pesodolphonists have suggested Tories at about 32 and Labour about 36, and, in amazing contrast to the Westminster poll libdems about 16% not nine!
What are canvassers finding, much enthusiasm? The labour canvasser from up North at this weeks smartmarket event reported not much enthusiasm (but not the outright hostility of recent years LOLs)
I actually think Labour would get more vote out for a general election next week than these locals.
Given that inflation in the Baltic States is 12-15% and Holland 10%, how they must be regretting their disastrous decisions to leave the EU too!
Switzerland, at 2%, and Norway at 4.5% must be thanking their lucky stars they chose to remain.
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europe
The proportion without a passport or driving license is 24%, 11m adults.
Anyway I have
Machine LearningArtificial Intelligence work to be doing.Agree with the main premise though. It’ll be something “low brow” historical. A name everyone knows that tests well in focus groups.
The principle of the Turing Test is fundamentally sound, and he was prescient. Once we cannot distinguish between AI and human intelligence when we interact with them, then we might as well call them intelligent.
His method - rooms, conversations, etc - has not aged as well. But the insight remains profound
Let’s take an example. You have a Zoom conversation with an online doctor (who is actually a deepfake invented face, powered by GPT5). The doctor listens to your complaints sympathetically, makes a few jokes that lighten the mood, is highly attendant to your symptoms, and asks after your kids (remembering all their names and foibles). Then the same doctor gives you an excellently accurate diagnosis and recommends precisely the right treatment. The doctor is tireless, cheerful and encouraging, throughout
If you weren’t told, you would go away from that consultation thinking ‘wow, I’m so lucky to have such a nice, intelligent doctor’
Computers are just a few years from being able to do that. They will be intelligent
Victoria and Albert was the name of the original floating gin palace. But the Albert bit has unfortunate connotations, namely a time when the dominant male in the UK was earnest, hardworking, interested in science, and diligent in promoting progress.
Trailer they have is very good...watch until the end.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVNUCBUrHL0
I know some of the guys working on this, very bright. £50m in start-up funding, they are well positioned to make a killing.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/20102728.michelle-mones-home-raided-amid-nca-probe-ppe-fraud-allegations/?ref=ebbn
https://twitter.com/N_Waters89/status/1519985198355652609
The screaming Remoaner moron who’s blog I am citing is in turn citing this (American) economist re the inflation claim - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Posen
I don’t profess to understand economics. I’m a despicable, maybe even stupid, humanities grad. But I am more inclined to listen to the findings of a professional, respected economist (who’s findings, as I noted, happily reinforce my bias) rather than shouty blokes on the internet.
That feels about right.
Also, that Electoral Commission that apparently is so inimical to the interests of the Tories that they have to take control of it? They've been recommending photo ID for voting since 2014.
Where did HG Wells get Thunderchild from, it doesn’t sound remotely like something Royal Navy would use? It sounds like American Indian names that would be cool.
Though they did have a Beaver once didn’t they?
In our new call today, @trussliz and I discussed further arms supplies to Ukraine and agreed on the need to impose a real embargo on Russian oil imports to Europe as soon as possible. Real means 0% and no blends. We also discussed the issue of security guarantees for Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1519990826054606849
Inflation everywhere else is similarly high for other, unrelated reasons.
When Gove said we'd had enough of experts, he meant this guy, specifically.
So maybe......
No kidding
Polish heavy weapons deliveries to #Ukraine 🇵🇱🇺🇦
- 230+ T-72M(1) MBTs
- 40 BMP-1 IFVs
- 20+ 2S1 Goździk SPGs
- 20+ BM-21 Grad MRLs
- WB Electronics FlyEye reconnaissance UAVs
- 100 R-73 air-to-air missiles [For Su-27 and MiG-29]
Full list: https://t.co/Dpk5TDYDs2
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1519997113249189889
HMS Kyiv?
230 tanks and 100 AAMs will definitely help a lot.
@nexta_tv
·
12m
The President of #Indonesia claims that Putin plans to attend the #G20 summit, Bloomberg reports.
Recall that a few days ago, Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that he had received an invitation to the G20 summit.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1519995941465608192
The government (and governments across Europe) should be doing far more to seize opportunities to reduce prices in the medium term, for example by cutting taxes, regulation, energy bills, barriers to trade and competition and so on.
(Her idea of washing the dishes is to load the dishwasher, forget to turn it on, and forever just fetch stuff out of the dishwasher as and when needed, washing each one by hand. The dishwasher is often just a store for dirty plates and cutlery.)
Bureaucratic - tick
Highly paid jobs for quangos - tick
Potential to pay an outsourcing firm even more for poor performance - tick
"Solving" a problem that does not exist on any substantial level - tick
Surprised to see so many fans of less government intervention being so much in favour of such a policy......
Poor Austria
He might actually be managing players who want to put some effort in. Some of them might even run for the ball.
FIGHT !!!!!!!
Putting aside my ignorance of economics and my archaic, naive, willingness to listen to experts, can we all then agree with the Remoaner moron’s subsequent argument that this is a shit government? Surely we can find sweet accord and amity on that point?
*In practice, only the estate name was used eg HMS Grafton, but the presence of such names as HMS Iron Duke and HMS St Albans make the intent clear, as does the 'Duke Class' moniker.
The printing of cash to get us through COVID on top of years of QE clearly cannot have helped either.
Those who have clearly misappropriated government funds, need to be held accountable.
Lady Mone has an awfully Arcuri look about her.
Sure, it's Will Fish, who played two games in the Cheshire Senior Cup on loan at Stockport, but that's mere details...
A once in a century pandemic which has killed 20 million people worldwide, disrupted global supply chains, still paralyses China (the biggest trader) and has sent tens of millions into hospital/retirement/chronic illness is a bigger influence on inflation than Brexit, by an order of magnitude
This stuff isn’t hard
I think the words "seem to" are probably not needed
For many years we had two cars, wife and self, although latterly car was work-provided. When I retired we didn't replace the work one, and in the 19 years since I think we've used taxis twice, other than airport runs. Otherwise we've used the bus, or train, or begged lifts. And, of course, given them gladly.
Don’t they want to hire a car when they explore foreign countries?
I find this rather sad. I’ve seen so much of the world simply because I’ve been able to rent a car and get out there. The USA, where I am now, is virtually impossible to see, properly, if you can’t drive
The next generation must hope we get self-driving cars very soon. They might just be lucky
The word 'police' does not exist in this:
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN05262/SN05262.pdf