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How will the BoJo survival betting look next Friday morning? – politicalbetting.com
How will the BoJo survival betting look next Friday morning? – politicalbetting.com
I really love this betting chart on Johnson’s exit date which gives a snapshot of how those like me who bet on politics view his survival chances and are prepared to risk money backing their views up.
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I presume everyone has been following the most interesting story of recent days:
Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Catholic Church and Milo Yiannopoulos:
https://www.salon.com/2022/04/27/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-right-wing-catholic-site-how-come-god-hasnt-destroyed-america/
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/04/29/threatening-kherson-farmers-russian-troops-steal-grain-from-ukraine/?swcfpc=1
Marriott International, Delta Airlines, H&M, Zara: there are many reasons why China is the elephant in the room when it comes to Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter...
https://twitter.com/lizalinwsj/status/1519541595657232384
The 2023 PM exit date seems like the value to me. A change of leader after the local elections next year, with the new leader having a year to turn things around before the GE.
Although they are now clear of the floundering SCons, they are still miles off those benchmarks. Yesterday’s YouGov:
SNP 47%
SLab 23%
SCon 14%
SLD 7%
Grn 3%
I can see exactly where Labour in Scotland are going wrong, but the current leaders can’t. That delights me. It also surprises me: they’ve had plenty of time to reflect and learn.
14% for the SCons is core vote. The Ruth Davidson Says No Party is deceased. Back to normal.
One of my favourite books about America is the cold six thousand by James Ellroy. The dystopian picture of the US that he paints of Mafia, Klan, out of control government agencies, Howard Hughes etc all operating in a supposed democracy seems startlingly real when you get glimpses of their modern equivalments like this.
https://twitter.com/Jake_Kanter/status/1519794080900960263?t=kZ6kwxAZTHck-BrJweTkKg&s=19
In making the case for selling Channel 4, Nadine Dorries points to the success of Channel 5's privatisation, not once, but twice. Channel 5 has never been owned by the government. https://t.co/Ru927I9dO7
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1519700895830884352?t=GtYAkyqHRzzEQm2PXvJknA&s=09
Apparently it was an 'honest mistake' when they said Ms. Rayner wasn't there....
If you’re going to go in really hard on your political opponents, for relative trivialities from two years ago, then you’d better be sure that you’re whiter than white yourself.
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
If he wants to take the dime for defending the indefensible, resign from parliament, ffs.
What has he done ?
Which will suit the PM just fine.
The wider issue here is if Durham Police do not investigate events as they are out of time, but the Met Police do and issue FPNs then the law is not being applied equally across England
This story is not going away
The New Brexit Party is digging it’s own grave. PR Mr Starmer. PR.
However, if they keep him in place then that is their responsibility, but even so I would suggest stranger things have happened then Boris winning in 24
That’s a terrific return in the current economic climate. Or idiocy. You choose.
Boris is a Lying Shit = traction
Rayner is a Lying Shit = who?
https://twitter.com/BEERG/status/1519917192392941568
Why didn’t he just point out that we held all the cards?
https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1519928836217085954
Nothing to do with zoom
Trends and traction are important to political betting outcomes. I know Labour are a bunch of mendacious shits. You know that Labour are a bunch of mendacious shits. But frankly, who cares? What matters is who *the electorate* think are the biggest mendacious shits. There the Tories win hands down.
Representing overseas governors is a matter of choice.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1519794800370888705
Starmer backed the law and indeed wanted stronger restrictions and this event does seem to breach the rules at the time but Durham Police have effectively called it a timed out event when the Met Police correctly hand Boris a FPN
- if Durham do reopen, pressure on Starmer and makes him / Labour look like hypocrites;
- if Durham doesn’t reopen, you highlight the fact their Police Commissioner is a Labour hack and say draw your own conclusions…
At the moment there is nothing more important in the realms of UK Government than "saving Big Dog". The PB Johnsonian Tories have bought into it with enthusiasm.
In which case Johnson could end up being fined even more heavily, and still have to explain a pattern of lawbreaking.
Moreover just as the Tories supported Labour's policies leading up to 2007-8 and still escaped censure for the crash by virtue of not being in charge, the Tories have the small problem that they are in government and the buck stops with them. Nobody is going to be unduly exercised about Starmer's call for further restrictions and one fine for a one-off breach if the government have openly and repeatedly trampled on their own laws. Even though they possibly should be.
*Please let that include the one at the DfE, because that would actually be funnier than Boris Johnson trying to read an autocue...
Barristers represent any number of awful people,
“Goodness me, with all that’s going on, it’s an old story”
As usual, one rule for Labour….
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19337786.scottish-independence-just-fifth-english-voters-oppose-ending-union/
Besides. If this were a real scandal, rather than a Maily Wail, you would expect some other paper to pick up on it by now.
Starmer's main selling point is that he is not a clown, but a highly-experienced, highly-competent lawyer. It's fair enough saying that Johnson should have known the law because he drafted it; Starmer should have known because that's his USP.
MTG really is mad as a box of frogs.
Backing Brexit (or at least pretending it doesn’t exist as they do now) shores up support in some WWC areas but loses them a strong line of attack that’s not going away anytime soon. At the moment it probably doesn’t lose them remain votes though.
Then there’s the trans issue, and planning, and public transport vs road building, and a whole lot of other smaller issues where their target support in one part of the country thinks very differently from their target support elsewhere.
Same as telling SLab that they should really be focussing on the evil Tories.
It’s never been true, but it would help the Nat cause if it were to happen.
Though you have a point as he also represented this government...
In any event, accusing the PM of lying and then saying you made a ‘honest mistake’ about your own failings doesn’t look good on any level - it’s just a basic reaction
'In a sensational U-turn, Labour acknowledged that Angela Rayner was also at the event on April 30 last year at which Sir Keir was filmed enjoying a beer with officials at a time when indoor socialising was banned. Labour spokesman said last night: 'Angela was present.' A party source claimed the previous denials had been 'an honest mistake'. It directly contradicts assurances given to the Daily Mail over the past three months that Mrs Rayner was 'not there'.
Johnson fans were saying that for ages until the Met reopened the case.
Do you think the case should be reopened?
Perhaps you would prefer a world in which barristers could refuse to represent defendants they didn't like, leaving some innocent people undefended.
The evidence indicates that Starmer acted exactly as Boris did but the Durham Police have timed out the event while the Met haven't
Durham Police clear Sir Keir Starmer of breaking coronavirus rules https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60286234
Do you not see the possible contradiction or interpretation of the law between to English Police forces and the implications for fairness?
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/20101899.durham-police-not-re-investigating-starmers-lockdown-breach/
All I'm seeing with the continual focus on this non-event is that the Tories are desperate to deflect the blame and don't have anything to work with..
Perhaps we should just wait for the Gray report.
The attacks on Starmer and Rayner are confected but brutal. Team Johnson have taken British politics still further down the toilet. For BigG. to equate the Starmer beer with his lunch/ evening meal event with Johnson's behaviour (wait for the Gray Report) suggests mission accomplished.
And you remember that Durham Police are rather good and the Tory candidates only manifesto commitment was to waste £2m a year (with an extra £10m required up front) to keep custody suites local rather than replacing the existing inadequate ones with a centralised one...
Can you not see a problem here ?
Were there two events in Durham ?
One where Rayner attended for the Miners where she was at and ‘ beer gate ‘ where only Starmer was in attendance .
IMHO the probability is about 25%.
It is clear that the event that Starmer, and now confirmed by labour, Rayner also attended was in breach of the rules at the time
If nothing else this is very embarrassing for labour