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Support for Brexit drops to new low – politicalbetting.com

13

Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,713
    edited April 2022

    HYUFD said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    For Socialists the Cameron and Osborne government was worse than the current Boris and Sunak one as it was pursuing deeper spending cuts while this one has even increased spending.

    Liberals however hate this government more than the Coalition, because of Brexit as well as the fact the latter included the LDs unlike this one

    An interesting distortion of history - the Coalition supported measures to bring the public finances back under control after the disasters of the Brown era and the global financial crash of 2008. The recovery from that and the return of tax receipts helped get the deficit under control.

    The reason the current Conservative administration is "hated" (your word, not mine) by Liberals and liberals is it is far more illiberal than its predecessors as can be seen in the legislation passed which continues to concentrate and centralise power within Whitehall and with Ministers in contrast to the Cameron period where MPs like Nick Hurd strongly supported the de-centralisation of power away from Whitehall and back to accountable local authorities.
    Which does not defeat my point that Socialists hated the Cameron and Osborne government even more than this one at all, even if Liberals loathe this government more than Cameron's
    I have put this to my Socialist friends. Anecdote would suggest that you are not anywhere remotely near accurate on that point.
    I am, you only have to compare the views of a socialist like BJO on Boris and Starmer and Corbyn on here to those of liberals.

    TBF I am a Socialist and I despised Cameron and May more than levelling up Socialist Boris!!!

    Seriously though the deliberate "were in this together" (not) of the austerity years was everything I despise of the Tories. By comparison the Town Deals levelling up monies are at least trying to make amends.

    My own town has had £millions from Boris more than from any Labour Govt. The illusion of Lab, particularly under SKS, being on our side is broken, probably forever, definitely whilst SKS is leader
    The Boris coalition is also much more statist than Cameron's.

    Plenty of statist Nationalists who voted UKIP in 2015 and some Labour Leavers who voted Labour in 2015 and 2010 voted for Boris in 2019 and some are still voting Conservative, while a number of classical liberals and fiscally conservative social liberals who voted for Cameron are now voting for Starmer Labour or the LDs
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,537
    People don’t like being reminded of bad choices so there will be a hardcore of Leavers still clinging to the Brexit fantasy .

    You won’t be able to dislodge these people as they limpet themselves onto the fantasy and scratch around for the alleged benefits .

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,713

    biggles said:

    YouGov are the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 21%
    LD 12%
    Grn 8%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 33%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 3%

    Midlands and Wales
    Con 40%
    Lab 38%
    LD 9%
    Ref 5%
    Grn 4%

    North
    Lab 51%
    Con 29%
    Grn 8%
    LD 8%
    Ref 3%

    Scotland
    SNP 47%
    Lab 23%
    Con 14%
    LD 7%
    Grn 3%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1779; Fieldwork: 26th - 27th April 2022)

    “Ref”? Is that the Farage vehicle? Is it still going and is it standing in the locals?
    It’s incredible that the Tories are still ahead in the Midlands. Do they suffer from very poor channels of communication inland?

    Is it, essentially, still 2019 or something in Nuneaton?
    The Midlands had the biggest Leave vote in the UK in 2016, so not that surprising
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    biggles said:

    YouGov are the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 21%
    LD 12%
    Grn 8%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 33%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 3%

    Midlands and Wales
    Con 40%
    Lab 38%
    LD 9%
    Ref 5%
    Grn 4%

    North
    Lab 51%
    Con 29%
    Grn 8%
    LD 8%
    Ref 3%

    Scotland
    SNP 47%
    Lab 23%
    Con 14%
    LD 7%
    Grn 3%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1779; Fieldwork: 26th - 27th April 2022)

    “Ref”? Is that the Farage vehicle? Is it still going and is it standing in the locals?
    It’s incredible that the Tories are still ahead in the Midlands. Do they suffer from very poor channels of communication inland?

    Is it, essentially, still 2019 or something in Nuneaton?
    Have you been? Try 1978……
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    CatMan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    “What is the poverty rate in Natchez, Mississippi?
    The poverty rate in Natchez is 35.9%. One out of every 2.8 residents of Natchez lives in poverty.

    “How many people in Natchez, Mississippi live in poverty?
    5,339 of 14,855 Natchez residents reported income levels below the poverty line in the last year.

    “How does the poverty rate in Natchez compare to the rest of Mississippi?
    The Poverty Rate across the state of Mississippi is 21.5%, meaning Natchez has a dramatically higher than average percentage of residents below the poverty line when compared to the rest of Mississippi.”

    And Mississippi is the poorest state in the USA


    https://www.welfareinfo.org/poverty-rate/mississippi/natchez

    Wonder if poverty is calculated state by state, or nationally.
    I’m pretty sure it’s done both ways

    America is fascinating for many reasons but one is that you can come here and not see ANY of the social/crime issues if you are carefully steered (which tourism authorities will do. Of course


    I spent last night in Jackson, the capital of MS, and we had lovely cocktails in an antebellum house and then dinner in a chic new restaurant and I fell boozily into bed thinking Well this is refreshing, a nice safe southern city, with great bars and eateries

    Then this morning I saw this:


    “JACKSON, Miss. (WLBT) - People are being killed at a higher rate per capita in the state Capital City than any other major city in the U.S., according to a 3 On Your Side analysis of more than fifty municipalities across the country.

    With 153 killings thus far in 2021, the homicide rate for Jackson is 99.5 per 100,000 residents, a rate that blazes past Memphis, St. Louis, and Baltimore.”

    That murder rate puts it up there with some Latin American disaster zones

    https://www.wlbt.com/2022/01/01/analysis-jacksons-rate-killings-per-capita-ranks-highest-us/
    To put in context, that's about the same as London gets in a year. And London is a lot bigger.
    London's murder rate is also sharply down this year so far (especially involving guns)

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/apr/25/no-london-shooting-deaths-in-six-months-as-police-stifle-gun-trade
    Lesotho's is the worst in Africa:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-61097386

    "Rivalry between stars of a unique accordion-based style of music in the southern African kingdom of Lesotho has sparked years of deadly gang warfare that has turned the tiny country into the murder capital of the continent."
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,404
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    For Socialists the Cameron and Osborne government was worse than the current Boris and Sunak one as it was pursuing deeper spending cuts while this one has even increased spending.

    Liberals however hate this government more than the Coalition, because of Brexit as well as the fact the latter included the LDs unlike this one

    An interesting distortion of history - the Coalition supported measures to bring the public finances back under control after the disasters of the Brown era and the global financial crash of 2008. The recovery from that and the return of tax receipts helped get the deficit under control.

    The reason the current Conservative administration is "hated" (your word, not mine) by Liberals and liberals is it is far more illiberal than its predecessors as can be seen in the legislation passed which continues to concentrate and centralise power within Whitehall and with Ministers in contrast to the Cameron period where MPs like Nick Hurd strongly supported the de-centralisation of power away from Whitehall and back to accountable local authorities.
    Which does not defeat my point that Socialists hated the Cameron and Osborne government even more than this one at all, even if Liberals loathe this government more than Cameron's
    I have put this to my Socialist friends. Anecdote would suggest that you are not anywhere remotely near accurate on that point.
    I am, you only have to compare the views of a socialist like BJO on Boris and Starmer and Corbyn on here to those of liberals.

    Out of curiosity, do you consider me to be a Socialist?
    Social Democrat
    Thank you. Most interesting.

    I did vote SDP in the 1987 General Election.

    I self-identity as an Eco-Socialist. I reject capitalism and the human-centric nature of our society.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited April 2022
    nico679 said:

    People don’t like being reminded of bad choices so there will be a hardcore of Leavers still clinging to the Brexit fantasy .

    You won’t be able to dislodge these people as they limpet themselves onto the fantasy and scratch around for the alleged benefits .

    The answer to this is for the UK - EU to recognise that it is in their mutual interests to cooperate on defence, security and trade

    Constant angst on both sides is only going to continue the present unsatisfactory relationship and while there is a lot to criticise HMG for it is also fair to criticise the EU

    Hopefully the war in Ukraine will see a more mature relationship going forward
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    nico679 said:

    People don’t like being reminded of bad choices so there will be a hardcore of Leavers still clinging to the Brexit fantasy .

    You won’t be able to dislodge these people as they limpet themselves onto the fantasy and scratch around for the alleged benefits .

    This is why you and I will never agree on this, in a microcosm of many leavers and remainers. You see it an economic decision.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776

    biggles said:

    YouGov are the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 21%
    LD 12%
    Grn 8%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 33%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 3%

    Midlands and Wales
    Con 40%
    Lab 38%
    LD 9%
    Ref 5%
    Grn 4%

    North
    Lab 51%
    Con 29%
    Grn 8%
    LD 8%
    Ref 3%

    Scotland
    SNP 47%
    Lab 23%
    Con 14%
    LD 7%
    Grn 3%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1779; Fieldwork: 26th - 27th April 2022)

    “Ref”? Is that the Farage vehicle? Is it still going and is it standing in the locals?
    It’s incredible that the Tories are still ahead in the Midlands. Do they suffer from very poor channels of communication inland?

    Is it, essentially, still 2019 or something in Nuneaton?
    Outside of Birmingham, Leicester, and Nottingham, the Midlands has been moving rightwards at a rate of knots, over the past 12 years.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    YouGov are the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 21%
    LD 12%
    Grn 8%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 33%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 3%

    Midlands and Wales
    Con 40%
    Lab 38%
    LD 9%
    Ref 5%
    Grn 4%

    North
    Lab 51%
    Con 29%
    Grn 8%
    LD 8%
    Ref 3%

    Scotland
    SNP 47%
    Lab 23%
    Con 14%
    LD 7%
    Grn 3%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1779; Fieldwork: 26th - 27th April 2022)

    “Ref”? Is that the Farage vehicle? Is it still going and is it standing in the locals?
    RefUK are standing in Redbridge in a few wards and here in Epping Forest too in Ongar
    Interesting. Are they Tory voters “on strike”, I wonder? Would make the Midlands look even more interesting.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    YouGov are the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 21%
    LD 12%
    Grn 8%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 33%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 3%

    Midlands and Wales
    Con 40%
    Lab 38%
    LD 9%
    Ref 5%
    Grn 4%

    North
    Lab 51%
    Con 29%
    Grn 8%
    LD 8%
    Ref 3%

    Scotland
    SNP 47%
    Lab 23%
    Con 14%
    LD 7%
    Grn 3%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1779; Fieldwork: 26th - 27th April 2022)

    “Ref”? Is that the Farage vehicle? Is it still going and is it standing in the locals?
    RefUK are standing in Redbridge in a few wards and here in Epping Forest too in Ongar
    Here in Redbridge, Labour have 51 out of 63 seats. Will probably increase.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    For Socialists the Cameron and Osborne government was worse than the current Boris and Sunak one as it was pursuing deeper spending cuts while this one has even increased spending.

    Liberals however hate this government more than the Coalition, because of Brexit as well as the fact the latter included the LDs unlike this one

    An interesting distortion of history - the Coalition supported measures to bring the public finances back under control after the disasters of the Brown era and the global financial crash of 2008. The recovery from that and the return of tax receipts helped get the deficit under control.

    The reason the current Conservative administration is "hated" (your word, not mine) by Liberals and liberals is it is far more illiberal than its predecessors as can be seen in the legislation passed which continues to concentrate and centralise power within Whitehall and with Ministers in contrast to the Cameron period where MPs like Nick Hurd strongly supported the de-centralisation of power away from Whitehall and back to accountable local authorities.
    Which does not defeat my point that Socialists hated the Cameron and Osborne government even more than this one at all, even if Liberals loathe this government more than Cameron's
    I have put this to my Socialist friends. Anecdote would suggest that you are not anywhere remotely near accurate on that point.
    I am, you only have to compare the views of a socialist like BJO on Boris and Starmer and Corbyn on here to those of liberals.

    TBF I am a Socialist and I despised Cameron and May more than levelling up Socialist Boris!!!

    Seriously though the deliberate "were in this together" (not) of the austerity years was everything I despise of the Tories. By comparison the Town Deals levelling up monies are at least trying to make amends.

    My own town has had £millions from Boris more than from any Labour Govt. The illusion of Lab, particularly under SKS, being on our side is broken, probably forever, definitely whilst SKS is leader
    The people who hate Conservative governments fall into two distinct, if sometimes overlapping, groups.

    Those who hate them on economic grounds, and those who hate them on cultural grounds. It's the latter who mostly hate the current government. It's the former who hated Cameron's government, or Thatcher's back in the day.
    Yes
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Russia's nightly One Show has been on about nuking the UK again.

    One of the presenters wasn't happy: seems he has found out that if there is a nuclear war with the West no one will survive.

    Another responds that they can then begin again with a blank slate.

    The Russian junta is becoming a millenarian death cult.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547

    Sean_F said:

    Leave's problem was that winning was incredibly difficult. Remain's problem is that Leave only had to win once.

    No government is ever going to go back to a decade of negotiation with the EU to rejoin, and the EU is never going to want us back in any case.

    I’m not so sure about the last point.
    I admit both premises are unlikely, though, and the ideological project for Britain must be how to engage with the EU without actually joining.
    I agree about engagement being the middle ground. The European Union runs a rules-based club. It isn't going to meet the UK half way to accommodate our requirements. Any engagement will be whatever the EU is doing anyway. So maybe the UK can engage on some programmes that it is comfortable with, but it will be limited. The EU is only show in town in Europe and there isn't a lot of engagement going on elsewhere either. The UK is out on a limb now but I don't see that changing in the foreseeable future, even though I think it should be working on those relationships
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    YouGov are the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 21%
    LD 12%
    Grn 8%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 33%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 3%

    Midlands and Wales
    Con 40%
    Lab 38%
    LD 9%
    Ref 5%
    Grn 4%

    North
    Lab 51%
    Con 29%
    Grn 8%
    LD 8%
    Ref 3%

    Scotland
    SNP 47%
    Lab 23%
    Con 14%
    LD 7%
    Grn 3%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1779; Fieldwork: 26th - 27th April 2022)

    Still Conservatives lead in the Midlands and South, unless that changes and he also makes more progress in Scotland, Starmer is not going to get a majority even if he does win London and the North convincingly
    The markets agree with you.

    NOM 1.91
    Con Maj 3.55
    Lab Maj 5
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    edited April 2022

    Russia's nightly One Show has been on about nuking the UK again.

    One of the presenters wasn't happy: seems he has found out that if there is a nuclear war with the West no one will survive.

    Another responds that they can then begin again with a blank slate.

    The Russian junta is becoming a millenarian death cult.

    As a wise man once said, we will all go together when we go.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=frAEmhqdLFs


  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,537
    biggles said:

    nico679 said:

    People don’t like being reminded of bad choices so there will be a hardcore of Leavers still clinging to the Brexit fantasy .

    You won’t be able to dislodge these people as they limpet themselves onto the fantasy and scratch around for the alleged benefits .

    This is why you and I will never agree on this, in a microcosm of many leavers and remainers. You see it an economic decision.
    Economics is only part of this for me .
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leave's problem was that winning was incredibly difficult. Remain's problem is that Leave only had to win once.

    No government is ever going to go back to a decade of negotiation with the EU to rejoin, and the EU is never going to want us back in any case.

    I’m not so sure about the last point.
    I admit both premises are unlikely, though, and the ideological project for Britain must be how to engage with the EU without actually joining.
    I agree about engagement being the middle ground. The European Union runs a rules-based club. It isn't going to meet the UK half way to accommodate our requirements. Any engagement will be whatever the EU is doing anyway. So maybe the UK can engage on some programmes that it is comfortable with, but it will be limited. The EU is only show in town in Europe and there isn't a lot of engagement going on elsewhere either. The UK is out on a limb now but I don't see that changing in the foreseeable future, even though I think it should be working on those relationships
    One relationship the UK should definitely be working on is with Ireland. It is unusual amongst EU members in following what's happening in the UK, has a shared interest in Northern Ireland, has a vote in the EU and influence in the US and a very effective diplomatic operation. They can leverage those to the advantage of the UK, as long as the UK is helpful to them. (Don't muck with the NIP)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “What is the poverty rate in Natchez, Mississippi?
    The poverty rate in Natchez is 35.9%. One out of every 2.8 residents of Natchez lives in poverty.

    “How many people in Natchez, Mississippi live in poverty?
    5,339 of 14,855 Natchez residents reported income levels below the poverty line in the last year.

    “How does the poverty rate in Natchez compare to the rest of Mississippi?
    The Poverty Rate across the state of Mississippi is 21.5%, meaning Natchez has a dramatically higher than average percentage of residents below the poverty line when compared to the rest of Mississippi.”

    And Mississippi is the poorest state in the USA


    https://www.welfareinfo.org/poverty-rate/mississippi/natchez

    Mississippi of course is now staunch GOP but it used to be staunch Democrat, voting Democrat at every Presidential election from 1872 to 1964. It has always been poor but culturally conservative
    Erm, didn't Mississippi go Dixiecrat at one point?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    edited April 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “What is the poverty rate in Natchez, Mississippi?
    The poverty rate in Natchez is 35.9%. One out of every 2.8 residents of Natchez lives in poverty.

    “How many people in Natchez, Mississippi live in poverty?
    5,339 of 14,855 Natchez residents reported income levels below the poverty line in the last year.

    “How does the poverty rate in Natchez compare to the rest of Mississippi?
    The Poverty Rate across the state of Mississippi is 21.5%, meaning Natchez has a dramatically higher than average percentage of residents below the poverty line when compared to the rest of Mississippi.”

    And Mississippi is the poorest state in the USA


    https://www.welfareinfo.org/poverty-rate/mississippi/natchez

    Mississippi of course is now staunch GOP but it used to be staunch Democrat, voting Democrat at every Presidential election from 1872 to 1964. It has always been poor but culturally conservative
    Erm, didn't Mississippi go Dixiecrat at one point?
    The extreme racial polarisation in Mississippi ensures that the Democrats will always have a substantial vote, but never a winning vote, unless the demographics of the State change.

    1976 and 1980 were the last elections in which the State was genuinely competitive.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,279
    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leave's problem was that winning was incredibly difficult. Remain's problem is that Leave only had to win once.

    No government is ever going to go back to a decade of negotiation with the EU to rejoin, and the EU is never going to want us back in any case.

    I’m not so sure about the last point.
    I admit both premises are unlikely, though, and the ideological project for Britain must be how to engage with the EU without actually joining.
    I agree about engagement being the middle ground. The European Union runs a rules-based club. It isn't going to meet the UK half way to accommodate our requirements. Any engagement will be whatever the EU is doing anyway. So maybe the UK can engage on some programmes that it is comfortable with, but it will be limited. The EU is only show in town in Europe and there isn't a lot of engagement going on elsewhere either. The UK is out on a limb now but I don't see that changing in the foreseeable future, even though I think it should be working on those relationships
    “Rules based club”

    Jesus Christ. Do you not even slightly choke when you regurgitate this total bullshit? It’s the political equivalent of fecal vomiting

    The EU is many things: good and bad. One thing it isn’t is an “organisation religiously tied to following rules”. It breaks them all the time. It’s the only reason it is still here
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,713
    edited April 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “What is the poverty rate in Natchez, Mississippi?
    The poverty rate in Natchez is 35.9%. One out of every 2.8 residents of Natchez lives in poverty.

    “How many people in Natchez, Mississippi live in poverty?
    5,339 of 14,855 Natchez residents reported income levels below the poverty line in the last year.

    “How does the poverty rate in Natchez compare to the rest of Mississippi?
    The Poverty Rate across the state of Mississippi is 21.5%, meaning Natchez has a dramatically higher than average percentage of residents below the poverty line when compared to the rest of Mississippi.”

    And Mississippi is the poorest state in the USA


    https://www.welfareinfo.org/poverty-rate/mississippi/natchez

    Mississippi of course is now staunch GOP but it used to be staunch Democrat, voting Democrat at every Presidential election from 1872 to 1964. It has always been poor but culturally conservative
    Erm, didn't Mississippi go Dixiecrat at one point?
    The Dixiecrats were Southern, states' rights Democrats
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,397
    It's been years since I studied the research on this subject, but, with that caveat in mind, I think this Wikipedia article gives a reasonable overview on poverty in the US: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_States
    (For instance, the poverty thresholds are national, with exception for two high-cost states, Alaska and Hawii.)

    Three points worth noting: The strongest predictor of official poverty in the US is marital status. Second, official measures omit benefits in kind, such as food stamps (now officially called the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program), public housing, and Medicaid.
    Steven Pinker, writing in an op-ed for The Wall Street Journal, claims that the poverty rate, as measured by consumption, has fallen from 11% in 1988 to 3% in 2018.[57] Burkhauser et al. find that accounting for cash income, taxes, and major in-kind transfers and updating poverty thresholds for inflation show that a Full-income Poverty Rate based on President Johnson's standards fell from 19.5 percent to 2.3 percent over the 1963–2017 period.
    Third, the cost of living varies widely from state to state, so it is much harder to find affordable housing in, for example, most of California, than, for example, Mississippi.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    edited April 2022
    nico679 said:

    biggles said:

    nico679 said:

    People don’t like being reminded of bad choices so there will be a hardcore of Leavers still clinging to the Brexit fantasy .

    You won’t be able to dislodge these people as they limpet themselves onto the fantasy and scratch around for the alleged benefits .

    This is why you and I will never agree on this, in a microcosm of many leavers and remainers. You see it an economic decision.
    Economics is only part of this for me .
    Agree. I would rank economics as the third of the four major downsides of Brexit: (1) Threat to integrity of the country; (2) Loss of freedom (3) Economic damage (4) Loss of influence. Against those 4 downsides I think there is one upside to Brexit: Agility to move faster.

    I would rank economic damage lower than loss of freedom, because, well, liberty should always come before money. But also because it is precisely the loss of freedom to trade that is substantially causing the economic damage
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “What is the poverty rate in Natchez, Mississippi?
    The poverty rate in Natchez is 35.9%. One out of every 2.8 residents of Natchez lives in poverty.

    “How many people in Natchez, Mississippi live in poverty?
    5,339 of 14,855 Natchez residents reported income levels below the poverty line in the last year.

    “How does the poverty rate in Natchez compare to the rest of Mississippi?
    The Poverty Rate across the state of Mississippi is 21.5%, meaning Natchez has a dramatically higher than average percentage of residents below the poverty line when compared to the rest of Mississippi.”

    And Mississippi is the poorest state in the USA


    https://www.welfareinfo.org/poverty-rate/mississippi/natchez

    Mississippi of course is now staunch GOP but it used to be staunch Democrat, voting Democrat at every Presidential election from 1872 to 1964. It has always been poor but culturally conservative
    Erm, didn't Mississippi go Dixiecrat at one point?
    The Dixiecrats were Southern, states' rights Democrats
    They ran their own ticket though against Dems.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    CatMan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    “What is the poverty rate in Natchez, Mississippi?
    The poverty rate in Natchez is 35.9%. One out of every 2.8 residents of Natchez lives in poverty.

    “How many people in Natchez, Mississippi live in poverty?
    5,339 of 14,855 Natchez residents reported income levels below the poverty line in the last year.

    “How does the poverty rate in Natchez compare to the rest of Mississippi?
    The Poverty Rate across the state of Mississippi is 21.5%, meaning Natchez has a dramatically higher than average percentage of residents below the poverty line when compared to the rest of Mississippi.”

    And Mississippi is the poorest state in the USA


    https://www.welfareinfo.org/poverty-rate/mississippi/natchez

    Wonder if poverty is calculated state by state, or nationally.
    I’m pretty sure it’s done both ways

    America is fascinating for many reasons but one is that you can come here and not see ANY of the social/crime issues if you are carefully steered (which tourism authorities will do. Of course


    I spent last night in Jackson, the capital of MS, and we had lovely cocktails in an antebellum house and then dinner in a chic new restaurant and I fell boozily into bed thinking Well this is refreshing, a nice safe southern city, with great bars and eateries

    Then this morning I saw this:


    “JACKSON, Miss. (WLBT) - People are being killed at a higher rate per capita in the state Capital City than any other major city in the U.S., according to a 3 On Your Side analysis of more than fifty municipalities across the country.

    With 153 killings thus far in 2021, the homicide rate for Jackson is 99.5 per 100,000 residents, a rate that blazes past Memphis, St. Louis, and Baltimore.”

    That murder rate puts it up there with some Latin American disaster zones

    https://www.wlbt.com/2022/01/01/analysis-jacksons-rate-killings-per-capita-ranks-highest-us/
    To put in context, that's about the same as London gets in a year. And London is a lot bigger.
    London's murder rate is also sharply down this year so far (especially involving guns)

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/apr/25/no-london-shooting-deaths-in-six-months-as-police-stifle-gun-trade
    By way of comparison, the murder rate in Jackson is about 45 times the rate in London.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    Sean_F said:

    CatMan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    “What is the poverty rate in Natchez, Mississippi?
    The poverty rate in Natchez is 35.9%. One out of every 2.8 residents of Natchez lives in poverty.

    “How many people in Natchez, Mississippi live in poverty?
    5,339 of 14,855 Natchez residents reported income levels below the poverty line in the last year.

    “How does the poverty rate in Natchez compare to the rest of Mississippi?
    The Poverty Rate across the state of Mississippi is 21.5%, meaning Natchez has a dramatically higher than average percentage of residents below the poverty line when compared to the rest of Mississippi.”

    And Mississippi is the poorest state in the USA


    https://www.welfareinfo.org/poverty-rate/mississippi/natchez

    Wonder if poverty is calculated state by state, or nationally.
    I’m pretty sure it’s done both ways

    America is fascinating for many reasons but one is that you can come here and not see ANY of the social/crime issues if you are carefully steered (which tourism authorities will do. Of course


    I spent last night in Jackson, the capital of MS, and we had lovely cocktails in an antebellum house and then dinner in a chic new restaurant and I fell boozily into bed thinking Well this is refreshing, a nice safe southern city, with great bars and eateries

    Then this morning I saw this:


    “JACKSON, Miss. (WLBT) - People are being killed at a higher rate per capita in the state Capital City than any other major city in the U.S., according to a 3 On Your Side analysis of more than fifty municipalities across the country.

    With 153 killings thus far in 2021, the homicide rate for Jackson is 99.5 per 100,000 residents, a rate that blazes past Memphis, St. Louis, and Baltimore.”

    That murder rate puts it up there with some Latin American disaster zones

    https://www.wlbt.com/2022/01/01/analysis-jacksons-rate-killings-per-capita-ranks-highest-us/
    To put in context, that's about the same as London gets in a year. And London is a lot bigger.
    London's murder rate is also sharply down this year so far (especially involving guns)

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/apr/25/no-london-shooting-deaths-in-six-months-as-police-stifle-gun-trade
    By way of comparison, the murder rate in Jackson is about 45 times the rate in London.
    Taken as a whole, the USA is not an especially violent country, by international standards, even if some US cities and districts are insanely violent. Overall, the homicide rate, at 5 per 100,000, is about average worldwide.

    But, it is violent by rich world standards. Typically, homicide rates tend to be 0-2 per 100,000 in rich countries.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Another masterstroke from Putin the strategic genius comes home to roost:


    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    18m
    Bulgaria’s PM Kiril Petkov met with Zelensky in Kyiv today.

    He announced that Bulgaria will provide Ukraine with weapons and that Ukrainian military hardware will be repaired in Bulgaria.

    This is a big deal.

    Bulgaria has a lot of Soviet gear that Ukraine knows how to operate.

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leave's problem was that winning was incredibly difficult. Remain's problem is that Leave only had to win once.

    No government is ever going to go back to a decade of negotiation with the EU to rejoin, and the EU is never going to want us back in any case.

    I’m not so sure about the last point.
    I admit both premises are unlikely, though, and the ideological project for Britain must be how to engage with the EU without actually joining.
    I agree about engagement being the middle ground. The European Union runs a rules-based club. It isn't going to meet the UK half way to accommodate our requirements. Any engagement will be whatever the EU is doing anyway. So maybe the UK can engage on some programmes that it is comfortable with, but it will be limited. The EU is only show in town in Europe and there isn't a lot of engagement going on elsewhere either. The UK is out on a limb now but I don't see that changing in the foreseeable future, even though I think it should be working on those relationships
    “Rules based club”

    Jesus Christ. Do you not even slightly choke when you regurgitate this total bullshit? It’s the political equivalent of fecal vomiting

    The EU is many things: good and bad. One thing it isn’t is an “organisation religiously tied to following rules”. It breaks them all the time. It’s the only reason it is still here
    The EU sets the rules. It certainly isn't going to change them for a non-member. Which may be good or bad, but is what it is, and the UK has to accept it (and to an extent is accepting it with eg Northern Ireland Protocol despite the huffing and puffing) or stay out on a limb. Engagement sounds good and seems the way forward, but it isn't a comfortable option.

    And by the way, I knew this was going to be the mess back in 2016.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,870
    Leon said:

    Cheers PB from Natchez. Mississippi

    Made it!





    Keep the bottle, @Leon. The incorrect spelling of tyre could make it a collectors item.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leave's problem was that winning was incredibly difficult. Remain's problem is that Leave only had to win once.

    No government is ever going to go back to a decade of negotiation with the EU to rejoin, and the EU is never going to want us back in any case.

    I’m not so sure about the last point.
    I admit both premises are unlikely, though, and the ideological project for Britain must be how to engage with the EU without actually joining.
    I agree about engagement being the middle ground. The European Union runs a rules-based club. It isn't going to meet the UK half way to accommodate our requirements. Any engagement will be whatever the EU is doing anyway. So maybe the UK can engage on some programmes that it is comfortable with, but it will be limited. The EU is only show in town in Europe and there isn't a lot of engagement going on elsewhere either. The UK is out on a limb now but I don't see that changing in the foreseeable future, even though I think it should be working on those relationships
    “Rules based club”

    Jesus Christ. Do you not even slightly choke when you regurgitate this total bullshit? It’s the political equivalent of fecal vomiting

    The EU is many things: good and bad. One thing it isn’t is an “organisation religiously tied to following rules”. It breaks them all the time. It’s the only reason it is still here
    I agree to some extent.
    The EU will break rules for key members, and - in a crisis - will extemporise new rules that over-rule old ones.

    Good luck trying to change the rules in a few months, though, which is what Cameron - astonishingly - attempted to do.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    CatMan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    “What is the poverty rate in Natchez, Mississippi?
    The poverty rate in Natchez is 35.9%. One out of every 2.8 residents of Natchez lives in poverty.

    “How many people in Natchez, Mississippi live in poverty?
    5,339 of 14,855 Natchez residents reported income levels below the poverty line in the last year.

    “How does the poverty rate in Natchez compare to the rest of Mississippi?
    The Poverty Rate across the state of Mississippi is 21.5%, meaning Natchez has a dramatically higher than average percentage of residents below the poverty line when compared to the rest of Mississippi.”

    And Mississippi is the poorest state in the USA


    https://www.welfareinfo.org/poverty-rate/mississippi/natchez

    Wonder if poverty is calculated state by state, or nationally.
    I’m pretty sure it’s done both ways

    America is fascinating for many reasons but one is that you can come here and not see ANY of the social/crime issues if you are carefully steered (which tourism authorities will do. Of course


    I spent last night in Jackson, the capital of MS, and we had lovely cocktails in an antebellum house and then dinner in a chic new restaurant and I fell boozily into bed thinking Well this is refreshing, a nice safe southern city, with great bars and eateries

    Then this morning I saw this:


    “JACKSON, Miss. (WLBT) - People are being killed at a higher rate per capita in the state Capital City than any other major city in the U.S., according to a 3 On Your Side analysis of more than fifty municipalities across the country.

    With 153 killings thus far in 2021, the homicide rate for Jackson is 99.5 per 100,000 residents, a rate that blazes past Memphis, St. Louis, and Baltimore.”

    That murder rate puts it up there with some Latin American disaster zones

    https://www.wlbt.com/2022/01/01/analysis-jacksons-rate-killings-per-capita-ranks-highest-us/
    To put in context, that's about the same as London gets in a year. And London is a lot bigger.
    London's murder rate is also sharply down this year so far (especially involving guns)

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/apr/25/no-london-shooting-deaths-in-six-months-as-police-stifle-gun-trade
    By way of comparison, the murder rate in Jackson is about 45 times the rate in London.
    Taken as a whole, the USA is not an especially violent country, by international standards, even if some US cities and districts are insanely violent. Overall, the homicide rate, at 5 per 100,000, is about average worldwide.

    But, it is violent by rich world standards. Typically, homicide rates tend to be 0-2 per 100,000 in rich countries.
    I’m surprised at the level of criminality in New York, which is safe by the standards of US metros.

    I haven’t figured out yet whether this is simply a factor of a more densely populated city, or a genuinely greater propensity to commit violent crime.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leave's problem was that winning was incredibly difficult. Remain's problem is that Leave only had to win once.

    No government is ever going to go back to a decade of negotiation with the EU to rejoin, and the EU is never going to want us back in any case.

    I’m not so sure about the last point.
    I admit both premises are unlikely, though, and the ideological project for Britain must be how to engage with the EU without actually joining.
    I agree about engagement being the middle ground. The European Union runs a rules-based club. It isn't going to meet the UK half way to accommodate our requirements. Any engagement will be whatever the EU is doing anyway. So maybe the UK can engage on some programmes that it is comfortable with, but it will be limited. The EU is only show in town in Europe and there isn't a lot of engagement going on elsewhere either. The UK is out on a limb now but I don't see that changing in the foreseeable future, even though I think it should be working on those relationships
    “Rules based club”

    Jesus Christ. Do you not even slightly choke when you regurgitate this total bullshit? It’s the political equivalent of fecal vomiting

    The EU is many things: good and bad. One thing it isn’t is an “organisation religiously tied to following rules”. It breaks them all the time. It’s the only reason it is still here
    I agree to some extent.
    The EU will break rules for key members, and - in a crisis - will extemporise new rules that over-rule old ones.

    Good luck trying to change the rules in a few months, though, which is what Cameron - astonishingly - attempted to do.
    The key point about the primacy of rules in the EU is that it is driven more by the member states than the organisation. It reflects a basic lack of trust. Member states aren't willing to submit to rules unless they know the others are following them too. Which is why the Hungary and Poland primacy of law issue is a big threat to the EU.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,870
    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    YouGov are the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 21%
    LD 12%
    Grn 8%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 33%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 3%

    Midlands and Wales
    Con 40%
    Lab 38%
    LD 9%
    Ref 5%
    Grn 4%

    North
    Lab 51%
    Con 29%
    Grn 8%
    LD 8%
    Ref 3%

    Scotland
    SNP 47%
    Lab 23%
    Con 14%
    LD 7%
    Grn 3%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1779; Fieldwork: 26th - 27th April 2022)

    “Ref”? Is that the Farage vehicle? Is it still going and is it standing in the locals?
    RefUK are standing in Redbridge in a few wards and here in Epping Forest too in Ongar
    Ongar seemed like a nice place when I used to go there. Did I miss something?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,852
    nico679 said:

    biggles said:

    nico679 said:

    People don’t like being reminded of bad choices so there will be a hardcore of Leavers still clinging to the Brexit fantasy .

    You won’t be able to dislodge these people as they limpet themselves onto the fantasy and scratch around for the alleged benefits .

    This is why you and I will never agree on this, in a microcosm of many leavers and remainers. You see it an economic decision.
    Economics is only part of this for me .
    Me too. In fact a small part in my case. When I cast my vote for Remain I was thinking about values and identity not about pounds and pence.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,870

    HYUFD said:

    YouGov are the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 21%
    LD 12%
    Grn 8%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 33%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 3%

    Midlands and Wales
    Con 40%
    Lab 38%
    LD 9%
    Ref 5%
    Grn 4%

    North
    Lab 51%
    Con 29%
    Grn 8%
    LD 8%
    Ref 3%

    Scotland
    SNP 47%
    Lab 23%
    Con 14%
    LD 7%
    Grn 3%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1779; Fieldwork: 26th - 27th April 2022)

    Still Conservatives lead in the Midlands and South, unless that changes and he also makes more progress in Scotland, Starmer is not going to get a majority even if he does win London and the North convincingly
    The markets agree with you.

    NOM 1.91
    Con Maj 3.55
    Lab Maj 5
    Whether Starmer makes progress in Scotland will be irrelevant unless Labour gains are sufficient to make the difference between being the largest party in a minority government and gaining an overall majority. This is unlikely. Scotland doesn’t have enough seats to make a significant difference.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,153
    edited April 2022

    HYUFD said:

    YouGov are the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 21%
    LD 12%
    Grn 8%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 33%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 3%

    Midlands and Wales
    Con 40%
    Lab 38%
    LD 9%
    Ref 5%
    Grn 4%

    North
    Lab 51%
    Con 29%
    Grn 8%
    LD 8%
    Ref 3%

    Scotland
    SNP 47%
    Lab 23%
    Con 14%
    LD 7%
    Grn 3%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1779; Fieldwork: 26th - 27th April 2022)

    Still Conservatives lead in the Midlands and South, unless that changes and he also makes more progress in Scotland, Starmer is not going to get a majority even if he does win London and the North convincingly
    The markets agree with you.

    NOM 1.91
    Con Maj 3.55
    Lab Maj 5
    Whether Starmer makes progress in Scotland will be irrelevant unless Labour gains are sufficient to make the difference between being the largest party in a minority government and gaining an overall majority. This is unlikely. Scotland doesn’t have enough seats to make a significant difference.
    Especially with a local Labour party positively favouring support for the Tories, as in Mr Sarwar's change of policy towards the Labour supporters of the Tory party in Aberdeen. When are they going to shift target?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    Another masterstroke from Putin the strategic genius comes home to roost:


    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    18m
    Bulgaria’s PM Kiril Petkov met with Zelensky in Kyiv today.

    He announced that Bulgaria will provide Ukraine with weapons and that Ukrainian military hardware will be repaired in Bulgaria.

    This is a big deal.

    Bulgaria has a lot of Soviet gear that Ukraine knows how to operate.

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24

    I am old enough to remember Bulgaria being seen as the most Pro-Russian of Eastern European states.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,870
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    YouGov are the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 21%
    LD 12%
    Grn 8%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 33%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 3%

    Midlands and Wales
    Con 40%
    Lab 38%
    LD 9%
    Ref 5%
    Grn 4%

    North
    Lab 51%
    Con 29%
    Grn 8%
    LD 8%
    Ref 3%

    Scotland
    SNP 47%
    Lab 23%
    Con 14%
    LD 7%
    Grn 3%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1779; Fieldwork: 26th - 27th April 2022)

    Still Conservatives lead in the Midlands and South, unless that changes and he also makes more progress in Scotland, Starmer is not going to get a majority even if he does win London and the North convincingly
    The markets agree with you.

    NOM 1.91
    Con Maj 3.55
    Lab Maj 5
    Whether Starmer makes progress in Scotland will be irrelevant unless Labour gains are sufficient to make the difference between being the largest party in a minority government and gaining an overall majority. This is unlikely. Scotland doesn’t have enough seats to make a significant difference.
    Especially with a local Labour party positively favouring support for the Tories, as in Mr Sarwar's change of policy towards the Labour supporters of the Tory party in Aberdeen. When are they going to shift target?
    Slab and Scon are two cheeks of the same arse, and Scottish lib dems like Alex Cole Hamilton are the shitty crack in the middle.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    I think you need to ask how many people want another referendum....
    And the answer will be very few people. About 10%
    Even if we did have another vote, few would like the likely terms on offer (free movement, euro, schengen etc), saying Brexit was a bad decision is not quite the same as support for rejoin.
    It has fallen off the agenda.
    I think that the EU has gone back to being an obscure issue that no one particularly cares about.

    Not so, Darkage. A poll asked exactly that in November - 40% said yes, they would like another referendum. 33% said no, they wouldn't.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/most-brits-would-rejoin-eu-if-new-vote-held-survey-shows/

    It's one of those issues that seems to have gone away because no political party is proposing it, but actually it'd probably be a real vote-winner if a party picked it up.
    I think a lot of those Brexit questions are too emotional for some people to answer accurately, which skews the polling. Plenty will still be answering were you in favour of Brexit or is Brexit going well, rather than should we rejoin.

    Rejoin would seem to have a lot of the same delivery problems that leave had back in 2015. It is nostalgic, unstable and ill defined, mostly relying on emotional connection. It would be another act of folly and self harm, so perhaps our brilliant electorate will actually choose it!
    OTOH this is a day when Mr R-M has basically admitted that HMG have screwed up their preparations for Brexit and fucked up totally and are postponing some of it for the 4th time - to the degree that the ports are considering suing.

    It'll soon be the 5th anniversary of the vote. A child born on Brexit Day will be at school very soon. Imagine if there were no school places, no school books, no trained teachers ...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/28/uk-sea-ports-consider-legal-action-delay-brexit-controls-jacob-rees-mogg
    Yes continuing on this path is harmful as well, probably more so.

    We need to move towards a much closer, co-operative partnership but now that we have left that partnership can only be stable if we are outside the EU.
    EFTA / EEA
    Bless you!
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leave's problem was that winning was incredibly difficult. Remain's problem is that Leave only had to win once.

    No government is ever going to go back to a decade of negotiation with the EU to rejoin, and the EU is never going to want us back in any case.

    I’m not so sure about the last point.
    I admit both premises are unlikely, though, and the ideological project for Britain must be how to engage with the EU without actually joining.
    I agree about engagement being the middle ground. The European Union runs a rules-based club. It isn't going to meet the UK half way to accommodate our requirements. Any engagement will be whatever the EU is doing anyway. So maybe the UK can engage on some programmes that it is comfortable with, but it will be limited. The EU is only show in town in Europe and there isn't a lot of engagement going on elsewhere either. The UK is out on a limb now but I don't see that changing in the foreseeable future, even though I think it should be working on those relationships
    “Rules based club”

    Jesus Christ. Do you not even slightly choke when you regurgitate this total bullshit? It’s the political equivalent of fecal vomiting

    The EU is many things: good and bad. One thing it isn’t is an “organisation religiously tied to following rules”. It breaks them all the time. It’s the only reason it is still here
    I agree to some extent.
    The EU will break rules for key members, and - in a crisis - will extemporise new rules that over-rule old ones.

    Good luck trying to change the rules in a few months, though, which is what Cameron - astonishingly - attempted to do.
    If the French or Germans needed to change the rules in a few months, it would happen. Cameron's mistake was trying to do it while being neither French nor German.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    FF43 said:

    nico679 said:

    biggles said:

    nico679 said:

    People don’t like being reminded of bad choices so there will be a hardcore of Leavers still clinging to the Brexit fantasy .

    You won’t be able to dislodge these people as they limpet themselves onto the fantasy and scratch around for the alleged benefits .

    This is why you and I will never agree on this, in a microcosm of many leavers and remainers. You see it an economic decision.
    Economics is only part of this for me .
    Agree. I would rank economics as the third of the four major downsides of Brexit: (1) Threat to integrity of the country; (2) Loss of freedom (3) Economic damage (4) Loss of influence. Against those 4 downsides I think there is one upside to Brexit: Agility to move faster.

    I would rank economic damage lower than loss of freedom, because, well, liberty should always come before money. But also because it is precisely the loss of freedom to trade that is substantially causing the economic damage
    But we have gained the freedom to sign trade deals with others.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,870
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    YouGov are the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 21%
    LD 12%
    Grn 8%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 33%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 3%

    Midlands and Wales
    Con 40%
    Lab 38%
    LD 9%
    Ref 5%
    Grn 4%

    North
    Lab 51%
    Con 29%
    Grn 8%
    LD 8%
    Ref 3%

    Scotland
    SNP 47%
    Lab 23%
    Con 14%
    LD 7%
    Grn 3%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1779; Fieldwork: 26th - 27th April 2022)

    Still Conservatives lead in the Midlands and South, unless that changes and he also makes more progress in Scotland, Starmer is not going to get a majority even if he does win London and the North convincingly
    The markets agree with you.

    NOM 1.91
    Con Maj 3.55
    Lab Maj 5
    Whether Starmer makes progress in Scotland will be irrelevant unless Labour gains are sufficient to make the difference between being the largest party in a minority government and gaining an overall majority. This is unlikely. Scotland doesn’t have enough seats to make a significant difference.
    Especially with a local Labour party positively favouring support for the Tories, as in Mr Sarwar's change of policy towards the Labour supporters of the Tory party in Aberdeen. When are they going to shift target?
    After all these years, you would think that Scottish labour would realise that if they opposed the Tories instead of targeting all their hatred at the SNP, they might win back some of the voters that deserted them for a more social democratic party.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Foxy said:

    Another masterstroke from Putin the strategic genius comes home to roost:


    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    18m
    Bulgaria’s PM Kiril Petkov met with Zelensky in Kyiv today.

    He announced that Bulgaria will provide Ukraine with weapons and that Ukrainian military hardware will be repaired in Bulgaria.

    This is a big deal.

    Bulgaria has a lot of Soviet gear that Ukraine knows how to operate.

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24

    I am old enough to remember Bulgaria being seen as the most Pro-Russian of Eastern European states.
    I know.

    Known as the 16th soviet republic during the cold war.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265

    darkage said:

    I think you need to ask how many people want another referendum....
    And the answer will be very few people. About 10%
    Even if we did have another vote, few would like the likely terms on offer (free movement, euro, schengen etc), saying Brexit was a bad decision is not quite the same as support for rejoin.
    It has fallen off the agenda.
    I think that the EU has gone back to being an obscure issue that no one particularly cares about.

    Not so, Darkage. A poll asked exactly that in November - 40% said yes, they would like another referendum. 33% said no, they wouldn't.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/most-brits-would-rejoin-eu-if-new-vote-held-survey-shows/

    It's one of those issues that seems to have gone away because no political party is proposing it, but actually it'd probably be a real vote-winner if a party picked it up.
    I think a lot of those Brexit questions are too emotional for some people to answer accurately, which skews the polling. Plenty will still be answering were you in favour of Brexit or is Brexit going well, rather than should we rejoin.

    Rejoin would seem to have a lot of the same delivery problems that leave had back in 2015. It is nostalgic, unstable and ill defined, mostly relying on emotional connection. It would be another act of folly and self harm, so perhaps our brilliant electorate will actually choose it!
    Perhaps! But I was responding to a very specific claim that almost nobody wants another referendum. The fact that 40% say they do and only 33% say they don't is interesting. They might be deluded, or misinformed, or subject to change, but one can't say they aren't a major slice of the electorate.

    As with other things that all the main parties stay away from (ban immigration? legalise drugs?)), the idea is not really tested because it's not being debated. That doesn't mean it's not simmering away as an issue, to surface at some point in the future.


  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited April 2022
    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leave's problem was that winning was incredibly difficult. Remain's problem is that Leave only had to win once.

    No government is ever going to go back to a decade of negotiation with the EU to rejoin, and the EU is never going to want us back in any case.

    I’m not so sure about the last point.
    I admit both premises are unlikely, though, and the ideological project for Britain must be how to engage with the EU without actually joining.
    I agree about engagement being the middle ground. The European Union runs a rules-based club. It isn't going to meet the UK half way to accommodate our requirements. Any engagement will be whatever the EU is doing anyway. So maybe the UK can engage on some programmes that it is comfortable with, but it will be limited. The EU is only show in town in Europe and there isn't a lot of engagement going on elsewhere either. The UK is out on a limb now but I don't see that changing in the foreseeable future, even though I think it should be working on those relationships
    “Rules based club”

    Jesus Christ. Do you not even slightly choke when you regurgitate this total bullshit? It’s the political equivalent of fecal vomiting

    The EU is many things: good and bad. One thing it isn’t is an “organisation religiously tied to following rules”. It breaks them all the time. It’s the only reason it is still here
    I agree to some extent.
    The EU will break rules for key members, and - in a crisis - will extemporise new rules that over-rule old ones.

    Good luck trying to change the rules in a few months, though, which is what Cameron - astonishingly - attempted to do.
    If the French or Germans needed to change the rules in a few months, it would happen. Cameron's mistake was trying to do it while being neither French nor German.
    This is just xenophobic delusion, I’m afraid.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Incredibly, Jackson’s murder rate of 99.5 per 100k makes it the 3rd most homicidal city IN THE WORLD - ahead of Ciudad Juarez, way ahead of Cape Town, equal with Caracas, behind only Acapulco and Tijuana


    https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-city-rankings/most-violent-cities-in-the-world


    Trump is going to win in 2024

    Isn't Mississippi already one of the most Red states in America, with no Democrats in any State-wide positions?
    I mean there is a real sense the country is going to the dogs, crime is surging, inflation is rampant, Biden is a demented fool and Harris is a woketastic disaster

    The republicans would walk it if it weren’t for trump being a loathsome bigoted crazy-ass narcissistic teetotal creepaloid weirdo

    But I begin to wonder if the republicans can win even if trump is the candidate: ie trump can win

    What middle Americans crave - I sense - is a no nonsense hard arsed right winger to get a handle on crime and woke and the rest of the diseased lefty shit but they DON’T want Trump. They want a kind of Giuliani (as he was, not how he is)

    I broadly agree with you but the 'sense is mainly driven by Fox News running the agenda.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    ydoethur said:

    So tell me, what are the odds that "Leon"'s next great opus will be -

    "I'm a Fugitive From an Alabama Chain Gang: Fear and Loathing on the Natchez Trace"

    How do you knap that in flint?
    Slowly?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    Foxy said:

    Another masterstroke from Putin the strategic genius comes home to roost:


    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    18m
    Bulgaria’s PM Kiril Petkov met with Zelensky in Kyiv today.

    He announced that Bulgaria will provide Ukraine with weapons and that Ukrainian military hardware will be repaired in Bulgaria.

    This is a big deal.

    Bulgaria has a lot of Soviet gear that Ukraine knows how to operate.

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24

    I am old enough to remember Bulgaria being seen as the most Pro-Russian of Eastern European states.
    I know.

    Known as the 16th soviet republic during the cold war.
    I think going back to the 19th struggles against the Ottomans, and help they got from the Tsars.

    That change of tune to being solidly in the European mainstream and looking towards the West for their future. Yet we told them to f*** off, or if not, we would f*** off. Brexit was driven by anti-east-european sentiment, we hated them for wanting to join our prosperity and freedom.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Biden completely froze while apparently trying to say the word “kleptocrat”:

    https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1519698983513432065
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588
    ...

    biggles said:

    YouGov are the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 21%
    LD 12%
    Grn 8%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 33%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 3%

    Midlands and Wales
    Con 40%
    Lab 38%
    LD 9%
    Ref 5%
    Grn 4% no

    North
    Lab 51%
    Con 29%
    Grn 8%
    LD 8%
    Ref 3%

    Scotland
    SNP 47%
    Lab 23%
    Con 14%
    LD 7%
    Grn 3%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1779; Fieldwork: 26th - 27th April 2022)

    “Ref”? Is that the Farage vehicle? Is it still going and is it standing in the locals?
    It’s incredible that the Tories are still ahead in the Midlands. Do they suffer from very poor channels of communication inland?

    Is it, essentially, still 2019 or something in Nuneaton?
    Remember that the Midlands includes Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Shropshire etc, etc which have always been with a few exceptions loyally Conservative.

    The lurch rightward in places like Dudley and indeed as mentioned Nuneaton and Bedworth I put down to the xenophobic side effects promoted by some Brexit salesmen.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Incredibly, Jackson’s murder rate of 99.5 per 100k makes it the 3rd most homicidal city IN THE WORLD - ahead of Ciudad Juarez, way ahead of Cape Town, equal with Caracas, behind only Acapulco and Tijuana


    https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-city-rankings/most-violent-cities-in-the-world


    Trump is going to win in 2024

    Isn't Mississippi already one of the most Red states in America, with no Democrats in any State-wide positions?
    I mean there is a real sense the country is going to the dogs, crime is surging, inflation is rampant, Biden is a demented fool and Harris is a woketastic disaster

    The republicans would walk it if it weren’t for trump being a loathsome bigoted crazy-ass narcissistic teetotal creepaloid weirdo

    But I begin to wonder if the republicans can win even if trump is the candidate: ie trump can win

    What middle Americans crave - I sense - is a no nonsense hard arsed right winger to get a handle on crime and woke and the rest of the diseased lefty shit but they DON’T want Trump. They want a kind of Giuliani (as he was, not how he is)

    I am not surprised that you found that confirmation of your views, particularly while travelling through the tourist sites of the most reliably Republican states in America.

    LBJ made sure that his "Great Society" programme was equally aimed at the rural poor and blue collar areas as the inner cities, but more recent Democrats (Carter excepted) seem to have forgotten that important balance.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    It’s amazing. I think some on here might genuinely believe Brexit is detectably a failure and having an impact on average people living normal lives. It’s not just a line they say. Nonsense of course, but they believe it.

    Of course, they probably think I’m mad because in the end, with how it went, I concluded the only answer was a “hard” Brexit and things like the vaccine rubbish and Ukraine have only solidified my view.

    That’s why there’s no point arguing on this matter. My lot won, it won’t be reversed any time soon, and all views are now fixed. Everyone just speaks past each other.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    Foxy said:

    Another masterstroke from Putin the strategic genius comes home to roost:


    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    18m
    Bulgaria’s PM Kiril Petkov met with Zelensky in Kyiv today.

    He announced that Bulgaria will provide Ukraine with weapons and that Ukrainian military hardware will be repaired in Bulgaria.

    This is a big deal.

    Bulgaria has a lot of Soviet gear that Ukraine knows how to operate.

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24

    I am old enough to remember Bulgaria being seen as the most Pro-Russian of Eastern European states.
    I just read a bit about Bulgarian politics. It seems the long-running and actually quite popular president is in a perpetual feud with his prime ministers. This is more than just difference of political opinion - it involves law cases and sabotage. The president is nominally independent but is associated with the Socialist Party which is part of the governing coalition. Both the president and the Socialist Party are basically pro-Russia, while the prime minister, from another party, is very pro-Ukraine.

    I suspect Putin is trying to cause dissension and chaos by cutting off gas supplies to Bulgaria because that's his MO for abroad. With the aim in this case of bringing down the government.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Leon said:

    Cheers PB from Natchez. Mississippi

    Made it!





    Have you been nursing the same bottle of beer since Alabama? Somehow I doubt it!

    Question now is, are on at Natchez-On-the-Hill OR are you at Natchez Under-the-Hill?

    Reckon today the place is one big tourist trap.

    But back in the day (when Meriwether was wetting his whistle almost as frequently as Leon) Natchez-On-the-Hill was renowned for its gentility, refinement and hordes of slave house servants.

    Whereas was infamous for its low dives, brothels and slave pens; good place to land your keelboat AND get hit on the head in a dark alley.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Foxy said:

    That change of tune to being solidly in the European mainstream and looking towards the West for their future. Yet we told them to f*** off, or if not, we would f*** off. Brexit was driven by anti-east-european sentiment, we hated them for wanting to join our prosperity and freedom.

    Why do you see everything as an expression of hate? It's not hateful to think that there are drawbacks to free movement and that immigration policy should be in the control of national governments.

    Have you read anything by Ivan Krastev? The idea that you can gain instant access to modernity simply by moving west has not been an unalloyed good for countries like Bulgaria.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    edited April 2022
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Another masterstroke from Putin the strategic genius comes home to roost:


    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    18m
    Bulgaria’s PM Kiril Petkov met with Zelensky in Kyiv today.

    He announced that Bulgaria will provide Ukraine with weapons and that Ukrainian military hardware will be repaired in Bulgaria.

    This is a big deal.

    Bulgaria has a lot of Soviet gear that Ukraine knows how to operate.

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24

    I am old enough to remember Bulgaria being seen as the most Pro-Russian of Eastern European states.
    I know.

    Known as the 16th soviet republic during the cold war.
    I think going back to the 19th struggles against the Ottomans, and help they got from the Tsars.

    That change of tune to being solidly in the European mainstream and looking towards the West for their future. Yet we told them to f*** off, or if not, we would f*** off. Brexit was driven by anti-east-european sentiment, we hated them for wanting to join our prosperity and freedom.
    Eurosceptics also mostly missed the point that having Turkey join the EU alongside all the Eastern and Balkan states would have been a perfect way to freeze it in place as the early 90s institution they could live with. Best outcome for everyone.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    edited April 2022
    ..
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Foxy said:

    Another masterstroke from Putin the strategic genius comes home to roost:


    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    18m
    Bulgaria’s PM Kiril Petkov met with Zelensky in Kyiv today.

    He announced that Bulgaria will provide Ukraine with weapons and that Ukrainian military hardware will be repaired in Bulgaria.

    This is a big deal.

    Bulgaria has a lot of Soviet gear that Ukraine knows how to operate.

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24

    I am old enough to remember Bulgaria being seen as the most Pro-Russian of Eastern European states.
    I know.

    Known as the 16th soviet republic during the cold war.
    IIRC they did informally ask the USSR if they could join, but were turned down.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    .
    @BelTel

    @LucidTalk
    poll #AE22

    🟩SF-26%
    🟧DUP-20%
    🟦UUP-14%
    🟨APNI-14%
    🟥SDLP-10%
    🟪TUV-9%

    Good poll for the UUP this (and also TUV).

    UUP should make a net gain of at least two seats and can see Diane Dodds being edged out by a 2nd UUP candidate in Upper Bann.

    TUV is hard to quantify TBH although the DUPs strategy on the protocol may be backfiring if thet are losing support at both ends to the TUV and UUP (I thought the DUP might be clawing back a bit more support from the TUV).
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    “What is the poverty rate in Natchez, Mississippi?
    The poverty rate in Natchez is 35.9%. One out of every 2.8 residents of Natchez lives in poverty.

    “How many people in Natchez, Mississippi live in poverty?
    5,339 of 14,855 Natchez residents reported income levels below the poverty line in the last year.

    “How does the poverty rate in Natchez compare to the rest of Mississippi?
    The Poverty Rate across the state of Mississippi is 21.5%, meaning Natchez has a dramatically higher than average percentage of residents below the poverty line when compared to the rest of Mississippi.”

    And Mississippi is the poorest state in the USA


    https://www.welfareinfo.org/poverty-rate/mississippi/natchez

    Mississippi of course is now staunch GOP but it used to be staunch Democrat, voting Democrat at every Presidential election from 1872 to 1964. It has always been poor but culturally conservative
    Erm, didn't Mississippi go Dixiecrat at one point?
    The Dixiecrats were Southern, states' rights Democrats
    They ran their own ticket though against Dems.
    Dixiecrats took the view that THEY were the "true" Democratic Party, and their candidates for President & Vice President, Gov Strom Thurmond of South Carolina and Gov Field Wright of Mississippi ran in these states as well as Alabama & Louisiana as THE official Democratic Party candidates; President Harry Truman the national Democratic nominee was NOT even on the ballot in Alabama.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Serious karma's a bitch lolz

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/04/28/keir-starmer-wont-fined-lockdown-beer-even-found-have-broken/

    Durham cops won't prosecute Starmer because it would be a selective prosecution. Which is why they didn't prosecute Cummings, and said so at the time:

    “In line with Durham Constabulary’s general approach throughout the pandemic, there is no intention to take retrospective action in respect of the Barnard Castle incident since this would amount to treating Mr Cummings differently from other members of the public.

    “Durham Constabulary has not taken retrospective action against any other person.”
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    biggles said:

    It’s amazing. I think some on here might genuinely believe Brexit is detectably a failure and having an impact on average people living normal lives. It’s not just a line they say. Nonsense of course, but they believe it.

    Of course, they probably think I’m mad because in the end, with how it went, I concluded the only answer was a “hard” Brexit and things like the vaccine rubbish and Ukraine have only solidified my view.

    That’s why there’s no point arguing on this matter. My lot won, it won’t be reversed any time soon, and all views are now fixed. Everyone just speaks past each other.

    As long as the 2016 result is maintained as a frozen conflict, you are right. If we are ever to come to any kind of resolution, we will have to address this stuff. Which is why Brexit isn't done, even if it isn't going to be reversed.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,537
    I wonder how much of an election issue the BBC could become . Given those most favourable towards it are the Tories strongest voter group .

    If it went to a subscription service this would effectively destroy the BBC. No 10 seems determined to destroy the BBC as it’s not sufficiently sycophantic and for all the talk of supporting democracy the Tories want a compliant media and will go after anything that they can get away with .

    After voter ID, the gutting of the Electoral Commission the Tories represent a clear and present danger to the UK . These are dark times for the UK .
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    Leon said:

    Cheers PB from Natchez. Mississippi

    Made it!





    Have you been nursing the same bottle of beer since Alabama? Somehow I doubt it!

    Question now is, are on at Natchez-On-the-Hill OR are you at Natchez Under-the-Hill?

    Reckon today the place is one big tourist trap.

    But back in the day (when Meriwether was wetting his whistle almost as frequently as Leon) Natchez-On-the-Hill was renowned for its gentility, refinement and hordes of slave house servants.

    Whereas was infamous for its low dives, brothels and slave pens; good place to land your keelboat AND get hit on the head in a dark alley.
    Maga, etc.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    edited April 2022

    Foxy said:

    That change of tune to being solidly in the European mainstream and looking towards the West for their future. Yet we told them to f*** off, or if not, we would f*** off. Brexit was driven by anti-east-european sentiment, we hated them for wanting to join our prosperity and freedom.

    Why do you see everything as an expression of hate? It's not hateful to think that there are drawbacks to free movement and that immigration policy should be in the control of national governments.

    Have you read anything by Ivan Krastev? The idea that you can gain instant access to modernity simply by moving west has not been an unalloyed good for countries like Bulgaria.
    I don't see everything as an expression of hate. There is no doubt though that what drove Brexit was a dislike of foreign immigration, and hatred of immigrants particularly from Eastern Europe.

    Emigration has certainly led to some difficulties in Bulgaria, but both people and governments there judge the advantages to greatly out weigh the drawbacks.
  • Ally_B1Ally_B1 Posts: 46
    biggles said:

    It’s amazing. I think some on here might genuinely believe Brexit is detectably a failure and having an impact on average people living normal lives. It’s not just a line they say. Nonsense of course, but they believe it.

    Of course, they probably think I’m mad because in the end, with how it went, I concluded the only answer was a “hard” Brexit and things like the vaccine rubbish and Ukraine have only solidified my view.

    That’s why there’s no point arguing on this matter. My lot won, it won’t be reversed any time soon, and all views are now fixed. Everyone just speaks past each other.

    No I don't think you are mad, just stark staring bonkers or something. The sooner this 'pile of brown stuff' is reversed the better it will be for the UK and all living in it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    If I was to claim Labour and Tory’s are getting mired in a sleaze crisis on eve of these elections, and libdems and greens could go on to benefit smashing the main party’s at the polls, why would I be wrong to say that?

    image

    image
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    It’s amazing. I think some on here might genuinely believe Brexit is detectably a failure and having an impact on average people living normal lives. It’s not just a line they say. Nonsense of course, but they believe it.

    Of course, they probably think I’m mad because in the end, with how it went, I concluded the only answer was a “hard” Brexit and things like the vaccine rubbish and Ukraine have only solidified my view.

    That’s why there’s no point arguing on this matter. My lot won, it won’t be reversed any time soon, and all views are now fixed. Everyone just speaks past each other.

    As long as the 2016 result is maintained as a frozen conflict, you are right. If we are ever to come to any kind of resolution, we will have to address this stuff. Which is why Brexit isn't done, even if it isn't going to be reversed.
    I think it quite possible that Brexit will be reversed, but dont expect it to be in this or the next Parliament.

    We see in the header that Brexitism is losing steam, and pro-EU sentiment maintaining its. It needs to brew somewhat longer, but as the flaws and follies of Brexit get larger, the grass will seem ever greener on the other side.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited April 2022
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    It’s amazing. I think some on here might genuinely believe Brexit is detectably a failure and having an impact on average people living normal lives. It’s not just a line they say. Nonsense of course, but they believe it.

    Of course, they probably think I’m mad because in the end, with how it went, I concluded the only answer was a “hard” Brexit and things like the vaccine rubbish and Ukraine have only solidified my view.

    That’s why there’s no point arguing on this matter. My lot won, it won’t be reversed any time soon, and all views are now fixed. Everyone just speaks past each other.

    As long as the 2016 result is maintained as a frozen conflict, you are right. If we are ever to come to any kind of resolution, we will have to address this stuff. Which is why Brexit isn't done, even if it isn't going to be reversed.
    I think it quite possible that Brexit will be reversed, but dont expect it to be in this or the next Parliament.

    We see in the header that Brexitism is losing steam, and pro-EU sentiment maintaining its. It needs to brew somewhat longer, but as the flaws and follies of Brexit get larger, the grass will seem ever greener on the other side.
    Another aspect of this, which I don’t think Brexiters realise, is that Remainers believe they didn’t just lost the vote, but that they were lied to during the campaign, and repeatedly lied to during the process of Brexit itself.

    They also feel they have been continually gaslit and provoked by Brexiters.

    Remainers have not forgiven, nor forgotten.
    And we intend to outlive the Brexiters.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    Cheers PB from Natchez. Mississippi

    Made it!





    Have you been nursing the same bottle of beer since Alabama? Somehow I doubt it!

    Question now is, are on at Natchez-On-the-Hill OR are you at Natchez Under-the-Hill?

    Reckon today the place is one big tourist trap.

    But back in the day (when Meriwether was wetting his whistle almost as frequently as Leon) Natchez-On-the-Hill was renowned for its gentility, refinement and hordes of slave house servants.

    Whereas was infamous for its low dives, brothels and slave pens; good place to land your keelboat AND get hit on the head in a dark alley.
    Maga, etc.
    Natchez and vicinity, as well as similar areas farther up the Mississippi River in the Delta, were traditionally areas of relative moderation and traditional conservatism versus populism in state & national politics. For example, voters here (White men) were mostly Whig in early 1800s, and generally opposed to secession. Post-Civil War the better-off planters here were aligned against the poor Whites of the piney woods and hill country -the "true" ancestors of the MAGA crowd,
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Okay this is me doing my best not to spin it, just play it with two perfectly straight and fair questions any Libdem can ask.

    What is our PB take here, Mail’s investigative project has found nothing new, just bigging up old stuff and even making stuff up into a dodgy dossier - in which case the rebuttal and suing them should be fast and effective?

    Because if these revelations are true, these revelations going to be hugely damaging to Labour and the Labour leadership isn’t it? Their ratings on honesty and trust will be hollowed out, as they will be seen as just as big a liar and hypocritical as Johnson, only with Tories maybe getting a fresh face for GE with Labour lumbered with Starmer for the GE? 😦

    image
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    It’s amazing. I think some on here might genuinely believe Brexit is detectably a failure and having an impact on average people living normal lives. It’s not just a line they say. Nonsense of course, but they believe it.

    Of course, they probably think I’m mad because in the end, with how it went, I concluded the only answer was a “hard” Brexit and things like the vaccine rubbish and Ukraine have only solidified my view.

    That’s why there’s no point arguing on this matter. My lot won, it won’t be reversed any time soon, and all views are now fixed. Everyone just speaks past each other.

    As long as the 2016 result is maintained as a frozen conflict, you are right. If we are ever to come to any kind of resolution, we will have to address this stuff. Which is why Brexit isn't done, even if it isn't going to be reversed.
    I think it quite possible that Brexit will be reversed, but dont expect it to be in this or the next Parliament.

    We see in the header that Brexitism is losing steam, and pro-EU sentiment maintaining its. It needs to brew somewhat longer, but as the flaws and follies of Brexit get larger, the grass will seem ever greener on the other side.
    Another aspect of this, which I don’t think Brexiters realise, is that Remainers believe they didn’t just lost the vote, but that they were lied to during the campaign, and repeatedly lied to during the process of Brexit itself.

    They also feel they have been continually gaslit and provoked by Brexiters.

    Remainers have not forgiven, nor forgotten.
    And we intend to outlive the Brexiters.
    We lost, Putin won (as confirmed by MI6 to Theresa May).

    Suck it up!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited April 2022
    It's going to be fascinating in my opinion to see in how many of those 81 Labour targets that are taking part in the local elections next week the party is able to get the most votes. Of course some people vote differently in local and general elections but usually there isn't a significant difference.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    edited April 2022

    Okay this is me doing my best not to spin it, just play it with two perfectly straight and fair questions any Libdem can ask.

    What is our PB take here, Mail’s investigative project has found nothing new, just bigging up old stuff and even making stuff up into a dodgy dossier - in which case the rebuttal and suing them should be fast and effective?

    Because if these revelations are true, these revelations going to be hugely damaging to Labour and the Labour leadership isn’t it? Their ratings on honesty and trust will be hollowed out, as they will be seen as just as big a liar and hypocritical as Johnson, only with Tories maybe getting a fresh face for GE with Labour lumbered with Starmer for the GE? 😦

    image

    Not exactly an SKS fan but 6 page dossier my arse.😀
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    My most memorable experience on the Natchez Trace Parkway was one night in the mid-80s, when I was cruising north, taking advantage of total absence of traffic (and speed enforcement) after dark.

    I'd past Jackson - the metropolis of Miss - without stopping for gas. Which turned out to be a mistake, as central part of Magnolia State north of Jackson is very rural with few even small towns. And all the ones I checked off just off the Trace (a scenic parkway that avoids all towns) were closed.

    I was running on fumes, and beginning to sweat a little, when I rolled into Kosciusko, Mississippi. I took a couple turns around the courthouse square and found a gas station - closed.

    I noticed that a deputy sheriff had noticed me, so I pulled over, got out and asked if he knew where I could find an open service station? Jackson. Great.

    HOWEVER turned out that, for a surcharge of $5 rhe owner of the local pumps would come and fill 'er up. So the deputy called and got him out of bed, and I cheerfully paid the man and went on my merry way.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,537
    edited April 2022

    Okay this is me doing my best not to spin it, just play it with two perfectly straight and fair questions any Libdem can ask.

    What is our PB take here, Mail’s investigative project has found nothing new, just bigging up old stuff and even making stuff up into a dodgy dossier - in which case the rebuttal and suing them should be fast and effective?

    Because if these revelations are true, these revelations going to be hugely damaging to Labour and the Labour leadership isn’t it? Their ratings on honesty and trust will be hollowed out, as they will be seen as just as big a liar and hypocritical as Johnson, only with Tories maybe getting a fresh face for GE with Labour lumbered with Starmer for the GE? 😦

    image

    I haven’t been able to read the full article but we’ll know if there’s anything substantial if the BBC and SKY News pick up on it . As the DM has now become just a Bozo fan magazine I’d tend to err on the lots of hysteria and not much substance for the timebeing! If this was an attempt to damage Labour before the council elections it seems a bit strange to do it at this time when most have already returned their postal votes , Parliament is in recess .
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    nico679 said:

    Okay this is me doing my best not to spin it, just play it with two perfectly straight and fair questions any Libdem can ask.

    What is our PB take here, Mail’s investigative project has found nothing new, just bigging up old stuff and even making stuff up into a dodgy dossier - in which case the rebuttal and suing them should be fast and effective?

    Because if these revelations are true, these revelations going to be hugely damaging to Labour and the Labour leadership isn’t it? Their ratings on honesty and trust will be hollowed out, as they will be seen as just as big a liar and hypocritical as Johnson, only with Tories maybe getting a fresh face for GE with Labour lumbered with Starmer for the GE? 😦

    image

    I haven’t been able to read the full article but we’ll know if there’s anything substantial if the BBC and SKY News pick up on it . As the DM has now become just a Bozo fan magazine I’d tend to err on the lots of hysteria and not much substance for the timebeing! If this was an attempt to damage Labour before the council elections it seems a bit strange to do it at this time when most have already returned their postal votes , Parliament is in recess .
    👍🏻 . .
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Okay this is me doing my best not to spin it, just play it with two perfectly straight and fair questions any Libdem can ask.

    What is our PB take here, Mail’s investigative project has found nothing new, just bigging up old stuff and even making stuff up into a dodgy dossier - in which case the rebuttal and suing them should be fast and effective?

    Because if these revelations are true, these revelations going to be hugely damaging to Labour and the Labour leadership isn’t it? Their ratings on honesty and trust will be hollowed out, as they will be seen as just as big a liar and hypocritical as Johnson, only with Tories maybe getting a fresh face for GE with Labour lumbered with Starmer for the GE? 😦

    image

    Not exactly an SKS fan but 6 page dossier my arse.😀
    🍑 . .
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,279

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    It’s amazing. I think some on here might genuinely believe Brexit is detectably a failure and having an impact on average people living normal lives. It’s not just a line they say. Nonsense of course, but they believe it.

    Of course, they probably think I’m mad because in the end, with how it went, I concluded the only answer was a “hard” Brexit and things like the vaccine rubbish and Ukraine have only solidified my view.

    That’s why there’s no point arguing on this matter. My lot won, it won’t be reversed any time soon, and all views are now fixed. Everyone just speaks past each other.

    As long as the 2016 result is maintained as a frozen conflict, you are right. If we are ever to come to any kind of resolution, we will have to address this stuff. Which is why Brexit isn't done, even if it isn't going to be reversed.
    I think it quite possible that Brexit will be reversed, but dont expect it to be in this or the next Parliament.

    We see in the header that Brexitism is losing steam, and pro-EU sentiment maintaining its. It needs to brew somewhat longer, but as the flaws and follies of Brexit get larger, the grass will seem ever greener on the other side.
    Another aspect of this, which I don’t think Brexiters realise, is that Remainers believe they didn’t just lost the vote, but that they were lied to during the campaign, and repeatedly lied to during the process of Brexit itself.

    They also feel they have been continually gaslit and provoked by Brexiters.

    Remainers have not forgiven, nor forgotten.
    And we intend to outlive the Brexiters.
    Remainers lied for 40 years

    “No fundamental transfer of sovereignty”


    “We will have a referendum on the Constitution”

    And so on. And so forth. Forty years

    You sowed a wind of lies, you reaped the whirlwind of Leave
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,537
    edited April 2022

    nico679 said:

    Okay this is me doing my best not to spin it, just play it with two perfectly straight and fair questions any Libdem can ask.

    What is our PB take here, Mail’s investigative project has found nothing new, just bigging up old stuff and even making stuff up into a dodgy dossier - in which case the rebuttal and suing them should be fast and effective?

    Because if these revelations are true, these revelations going to be hugely damaging to Labour and the Labour leadership isn’t it? Their ratings on honesty and trust will be hollowed out, as they will be seen as just as big a liar and hypocritical as Johnson, only with Tories maybe getting a fresh face for GE with Labour lumbered with Starmer for the GE? 😦

    image

    I haven’t been able to read the full article but we’ll know if there’s anything substantial if the BBC and SKY News pick up on it . As the DM has now become just a Bozo fan magazine I’d tend to err on the lots of hysteria and not much substance for the timebeing! If this was an attempt to damage Labour before the council elections it seems a bit strange to do it at this time when most have already returned their postal votes , Parliament is in recess .
    👍🏻 . .
    Regarding the elections . I don’t think the Tories will do as badly as anticipated , I think the Lib Dems will do very well and Labour okay but not make dramatic gains .

    As you’re a Lib Dem I’m happy to say I used to live in Surbiton during the famous Ed Davey win by 52 votes and voted for him . I’m a Labour /Lib Dem mixer and do use my vote tactically if need be . And in Surbition voting Labour is just helping to enable the Tories .
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588

    Okay this is me doing my best not to spin it, just play it with two perfectly straight and fair questions any Libdem can ask.

    What is our PB take here, Mail’s investigative project has found nothing new, just bigging up old stuff and even making stuff up into a dodgy dossier - in which case the rebuttal and suing them should be fast and effective?

    Because if these revelations are true, these revelations going to be hugely damaging to Labour and the Labour leadership isn’t it? Their ratings on honesty and trust will be hollowed out, as they will be seen as just as big a liar and hypocritical as Johnson, only with Tories maybe getting a fresh face for GE with Labour lumbered with Starmer for the GE? 😦

    image

    Not exactly an SKS fan but 6 page dossier my arse.😀
    I've just fallen off my chair!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Andy_JS said:

    It's going to be fascinating in my opinion to see in how many of those 81 Labour targets that are taking part in the local elections next week the party is able to get the most votes. Of course some people vote differently in local and general elections but usually there isn't a significant difference.

    I think for these elections you may be wrong to obsess about Labour and Tory battle, it possible both Labour and Tory perform poorly at these, yet the main take out in terms of next GE is the better than expected success of the libdems setting up springboard in target seats especially if your “some people vote differently in local and general elections but unusually there isn’t a significant difference” theory is true.

    Why would Libdem significantly outperform expectations putting them in great place in target seats ahead of next General Election? I think because of the sleaze scandals giving good reason not to support the two main party’s in coming years.

    Ask yourself when was the last time you heard or read “Partygate” in mainstream media, at least a week? (Unless in Tory press in relation to Labour “beergate” revelations) and if cost of living is there, getting way down list of news stories behind all this sleaze, is it not fair to say?

    I think it’s fair to say it’s becoming a “sleaze election” with the two main parties facing the voters anger at next weeks ballot, my analysis is the dominant “home” news narrative in fortnight up to next weeks voting day so fresh in voters minds as they vote, will be Labour and Tory sleaze and bad behaviour shenanigans.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    Okay this is me doing my best not to spin it, just play it with two perfectly straight and fair questions any Libdem can ask.

    What is our PB take here, Mail’s investigative project has found nothing new, just bigging up old stuff and even making stuff up into a dodgy dossier - in which case the rebuttal and suing them should be fast and effective?

    Because if these revelations are true, these revelations going to be hugely damaging to Labour and the Labour leadership isn’t it? Their ratings on honesty and trust will be hollowed out, as they will be seen as just as big a liar and hypocritical as Johnson, only with Tories maybe getting a fresh face for GE with Labour lumbered with Starmer for the GE? 😦

    image

    No need to worry, the BBC will make shore it gets little or no attention, and most of the public will be unaware of it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    It’s amazing. I think some on here might genuinely believe Brexit is detectably a failure and having an impact on average people living normal lives. It’s not just a line they say. Nonsense of course, but they believe it.

    Of course, they probably think I’m mad because in the end, with how it went, I concluded the only answer was a “hard” Brexit and things like the vaccine rubbish and Ukraine have only solidified my view.

    That’s why there’s no point arguing on this matter. My lot won, it won’t be reversed any time soon, and all views are now fixed. Everyone just speaks past each other.

    As long as the 2016 result is maintained as a frozen conflict, you are right. If we are ever to come to any kind of resolution, we will have to address this stuff. Which is why Brexit isn't done, even if it isn't going to be reversed.
    I think it quite possible that Brexit will be reversed, but dont expect it to be in this or the next Parliament.

    We see in the header that Brexitism is losing steam, and pro-EU sentiment maintaining its. It needs to brew somewhat longer, but as the flaws and follies of Brexit get larger, the grass will seem ever greener on the other side.
    Another aspect of this, which I don’t think Brexiters realise, is that Remainers believe they didn’t just lost the vote, but that they were lied to during the campaign, and repeatedly lied to during the process of Brexit itself.

    They also feel they have been continually gaslit and provoked by Brexiters.

    Remainers have not forgiven, nor forgotten.
    And we intend to outlive the Brexiters.
    In America.

    LOL
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Okay this is me doing my best not to spin it, just play it with two perfectly straight and fair questions any Libdem can ask.

    What is our PB take here, Mail’s investigative project has found nothing new, just bigging up old stuff and even making stuff up into a dodgy dossier - in which case the rebuttal and suing them should be fast and effective?

    Because if these revelations are true, these revelations going to be hugely damaging to Labour and the Labour leadership isn’t it? Their ratings on honesty and trust will be hollowed out, as they will be seen as just as big a liar and hypocritical as Johnson, only with Tories maybe getting a fresh face for GE with Labour lumbered with Starmer for the GE? 😦

    image

    I haven’t been able to read the full article but we’ll know if there’s anything substantial if the BBC and SKY News pick up on it . As the DM has now become just a Bozo fan magazine I’d tend to err on the lots of hysteria and not much substance for the timebeing! If this was an attempt to damage Labour before the council elections it seems a bit strange to do it at this time when most have already returned their postal votes , Parliament is in recess .
    👍🏻 . .
    Regarding the elections . I don’t think the Tories will do as badly as anticipated , I think the Lib Dems will do very well and Labour okay but not make dramatic gains .

    As you’re a Lib Dem I’m happy to say I used to live in Surbiton during the famous Ed Davey win by 52 votes and voted for him . I’m a Labour /Lib Dem mixer and do use my vote tactically if need be . And in Surbition voting Labour is just helping to enable the Tories .
    We went to a party in Surbiton 👍🏻

    I think your analysis of what to expect is spot on. The nations top pesodolphonists have effectively advised us to expect a “meh” nothing to see here, result.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    It’s amazing. I think some on here might genuinely believe Brexit is detectably a failure and having an impact on average people living normal lives. It’s not just a line they say. Nonsense of course, but they believe it.

    Of course, they probably think I’m mad because in the end, with how it went, I concluded the only answer was a “hard” Brexit and things like the vaccine rubbish and Ukraine have only solidified my view.

    That’s why there’s no point arguing on this matter. My lot won, it won’t be reversed any time soon, and all views are now fixed. Everyone just speaks past each other.

    As long as the 2016 result is maintained as a frozen conflict, you are right. If we are ever to come to any kind of resolution, we will have to address this stuff. Which is why Brexit isn't done, even if it isn't going to be reversed.
    I think it quite possible that Brexit will be reversed, but dont expect it to be in this or the next Parliament.

    We see in the header that Brexitism is losing steam, and pro-EU sentiment maintaining its. It needs to brew somewhat longer, but as the flaws and follies of Brexit get larger, the grass will seem ever greener on the other side.
    Another aspect of this, which I don’t think Brexiters realise, is that Remainers believe they didn’t just lost the vote, but that they were lied to during the campaign, and repeatedly lied to during the process of Brexit itself.

    They also feel they have been continually gaslit and provoked by Brexiters.

    Remainers have not forgiven, nor forgotten.
    And we intend to outlive the Brexiters.
    Remainers lied for 40 years

    “No fundamental transfer of sovereignty”


    “We will have a referendum on the Constitution”

    And so on. And so forth. Forty years

    You sowed a wind of lies, you reaped the whirlwind of Leave
    Ok, gramps.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited April 2022

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Okay this is me doing my best not to spin it, just play it with two perfectly straight and fair questions any Libdem can ask.

    What is our PB take here, Mail’s investigative project has found nothing new, just bigging up old stuff and even making stuff up into a dodgy dossier - in which case the rebuttal and suing them should be fast and effective?

    Because if these revelations are true, these revelations going to be hugely damaging to Labour and the Labour leadership isn’t it? Their ratings on honesty and trust will be hollowed out, as they will be seen as just as big a liar and hypocritical as Johnson, only with Tories maybe getting a fresh face for GE with Labour lumbered with Starmer for the GE? 😦

    image

    I haven’t been able to read the full article but we’ll know if there’s anything substantial if the BBC and SKY News pick up on it . As the DM has now become just a Bozo fan magazine I’d tend to err on the lots of hysteria and not much substance for the timebeing! If this was an attempt to damage Labour before the council elections it seems a bit strange to do it at this time when most have already returned their postal votes , Parliament is in recess .
    👍🏻 . .
    Regarding the elections . I don’t think the Tories will do as badly as anticipated , I think the Lib Dems will do very well and Labour okay but not make dramatic gains .

    As you’re a Lib Dem I’m happy to say I used to live in Surbiton during the famous Ed Davey win by 52 votes and voted for him . I’m a Labour /Lib Dem mixer and do use my vote tactically if need be . And in Surbition voting Labour is just helping to enable the Tories .
    We went to a party in Surbiton 👍🏻

    I think your analysis of what to expect is spot on. The nations top pesodolphonists have effectively advised us to expect a “meh” nothing to see here, result.
    Jerry and Margot are both voting LD this year.
    They sacrificed while Boris partied.

    (Tom and Barbara have obviously always voted LD).
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,537
    edited April 2022

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Okay this is me doing my best not to spin it, just play it with two perfectly straight and fair questions any Libdem can ask.

    What is our PB take here, Mail’s investigative project has found nothing new, just bigging up old stuff and even making stuff up into a dodgy dossier - in which case the rebuttal and suing them should be fast and effective?

    Because if these revelations are true, these revelations going to be hugely damaging to Labour and the Labour leadership isn’t it? Their ratings on honesty and trust will be hollowed out, as they will be seen as just as big a liar and hypocritical as Johnson, only with Tories maybe getting a fresh face for GE with Labour lumbered with Starmer for the GE? 😦

    image

    I haven’t been able to read the full article but we’ll know if there’s anything substantial if the BBC and SKY News pick up on it . As the DM has now become just a Bozo fan magazine I’d tend to err on the lots of hysteria and not much substance for the timebeing! If this was an attempt to damage Labour before the council elections it seems a bit strange to do it at this time when most have already returned their postal votes , Parliament is in recess .
    👍🏻 . .
    Regarding the elections . I don’t think the Tories will do as badly as anticipated , I think the Lib Dems will do very well and Labour okay but not make dramatic gains .

    As you’re a Lib Dem I’m happy to say I used to live in Surbiton during the famous Ed Davey win by 52 votes and voted for him . I’m a Labour /Lib Dem mixer and do use my vote tactically if need be . And in Surbition voting Labour is just helping to enable the Tories .
    We went to a party in Surbiton 👍🏻

    I think your analysis of what to expect is spot on. The nations top pesodolphonists have effectively advised us to expect a “meh” nothing to see here, result.
    Was that to celebrate the Davey win ! I bumped into him a few times in the newsagents , really charming and friendly . I’m looking forward to seeing Raab get his P45 at the next GE . The Lib Dems should really take Esher and Walton , please make it happen !
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588
    BigRich said:

    Okay this is me doing my best not to spin it, just play it with two perfectly straight and fair questions any Libdem can ask.

    What is our PB take here, Mail’s investigative project has found nothing new, just bigging up old stuff and even making stuff up into a dodgy dossier - in which case the rebuttal and suing them should be fast and effective?

    Because if these revelations are true, these revelations going to be hugely damaging to Labour and the Labour leadership isn’t it? Their ratings on honesty and trust will be hollowed out, as they will be seen as just as big a liar and hypocritical as Johnson, only with Tories maybe getting a fresh face for GE with Labour lumbered with Starmer for the GE? 😦

    image

    No need to worry, the BBC will make shore it gets little or no attention, and most of the public will be unaware of it.
    Only because it's b*ll*cks!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited April 2022

    Okay this is me doing my best not to spin it, just play it with two perfectly straight and fair questions any Libdem can ask.

    What is our PB take here, Mail’s investigative project has found nothing new, just bigging up old stuff and even making stuff up into a dodgy dossier - in which case the rebuttal and suing them should be fast and effective?

    Because if these revelations are true, these revelations going to be hugely damaging to Labour and the Labour leadership isn’t it? Their ratings on honesty and trust will be hollowed out, as they will be seen as just as big a liar and hypocritical as Johnson, only with Tories maybe getting a fresh face for GE with Labour lumbered with Starmer for the GE? 😦

    image

    Not exactly an SKS fan but 6 page dossier my arse.😀
    I've just fallen off my chair!
    My point being though, if I was Labour leadership, I’d surround myself with business managers at breakfast and say rebutt rebutt rebutt - because that’s the only way to win, get to the mics, set the story straight and honest to protect trust in your honesty, and not just call out the fabrication and lies but follow it up with writs, and letter to editor demanding apologies for lies, and get in the ear of the regulator for support.

    Just to ignore it on basis no one believes evident rubbish is wrong - you see what I mean, we should expect response on this from Labour tomorrow, silence on this will be deafening.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    It’s amazing. I think some on here might genuinely believe Brexit is detectably a failure and having an impact on average people living normal lives. It’s not just a line they say. Nonsense of course, but they believe it.

    Of course, they probably think I’m mad because in the end, with how it went, I concluded the only answer was a “hard” Brexit and things like the vaccine rubbish and Ukraine have only solidified my view.

    That’s why there’s no point arguing on this matter. My lot won, it won’t be reversed any time soon, and all views are now fixed. Everyone just speaks past each other.

    As long as the 2016 result is maintained as a frozen conflict, you are right. If we are ever to come to any kind of resolution, we will have to address this stuff. Which is why Brexit isn't done, even if it isn't going to be reversed.
    I think it quite possible that Brexit will be reversed, but dont expect it to be in this or the next Parliament.

    We see in the header that Brexitism is losing steam, and pro-EU sentiment maintaining its. It needs to brew somewhat longer, but as the flaws and follies of Brexit get larger, the grass will seem ever greener on the other side.
    Another aspect of this, which I don’t think Brexiters realise, is that Remainers believe they didn’t just lost the vote, but that they were lied to during the campaign, and repeatedly lied to during the process of Brexit itself.

    They also feel they have been continually gaslit and provoked by Brexiters.

    Remainers have not forgiven, nor forgotten.
    And we intend to outlive the Brexiters.
    In America.

    LOL
    I am not sure why my current location should be of particular amusement to you, but they do say that unexplained bouts of laughter is a sure sign of insanity.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,093

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Okay this is me doing my best not to spin it, just play it with two perfectly straight and fair questions any Libdem can ask.

    What is our PB take here, Mail’s investigative project has found nothing new, just bigging up old stuff and even making stuff up into a dodgy dossier - in which case the rebuttal and suing them should be fast and effective?

    Because if these revelations are true, these revelations going to be hugely damaging to Labour and the Labour leadership isn’t it? Their ratings on honesty and trust will be hollowed out, as they will be seen as just as big a liar and hypocritical as Johnson, only with Tories maybe getting a fresh face for GE with Labour lumbered with Starmer for the GE? 😦

    image

    I haven’t been able to read the full article but we’ll know if there’s anything substantial if the BBC and SKY News pick up on it . As the DM has now become just a Bozo fan magazine I’d tend to err on the lots of hysteria and not much substance for the timebeing! If this was an attempt to damage Labour before the council elections it seems a bit strange to do it at this time when most have already returned their postal votes , Parliament is in recess .
    👍🏻 . .
    Regarding the elections . I don’t think the Tories will do as badly as anticipated , I think the Lib Dems will do very well and Labour okay but not make dramatic gains .

    As you’re a Lib Dem I’m happy to say I used to live in Surbiton during the famous Ed Davey win by 52 votes and voted for him . I’m a Labour /Lib Dem mixer and do use my vote tactically if need be . And in Surbition voting Labour is just helping to enable the Tories .
    We went to a party in Surbiton 👍🏻

    I think your analysis of what to expect is spot on. The nations top pesodolphonists have effectively advised us to expect a “meh” nothing to see here, result.
    Jerry and Margot are both voting LD this year.
    They sacrificed while Boris partied.

    (Tom and Barbara have obviously always voted LD).
    Barbara votes LD. Tom says he votes LD but actually puts his cross in the Tory box. He once drunkenly confessed to Margot but she has never blabbed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    It’s amazing. I think some on here might genuinely believe Brexit is detectably a failure and having an impact on average people living normal lives. It’s not just a line they say. Nonsense of course, but they believe it.

    Of course, they probably think I’m mad because in the end, with how it went, I concluded the only answer was a “hard” Brexit and things like the vaccine rubbish and Ukraine have only solidified my view.

    That’s why there’s no point arguing on this matter. My lot won, it won’t be reversed any time soon, and all views are now fixed. Everyone just speaks past each other.

    As long as the 2016 result is maintained as a frozen conflict, you are right. If we are ever to come to any kind of resolution, we will have to address this stuff. Which is why Brexit isn't done, even if it isn't going to be reversed.
    I think it quite possible that Brexit will be reversed, but dont expect it to be in this or the next Parliament.

    We see in the header that Brexitism is losing steam, and pro-EU sentiment maintaining its. It needs to brew somewhat longer, but as the flaws and follies of Brexit get larger, the grass will seem ever greener on the other side.
    Another aspect of this, which I don’t think Brexiters realise, is that Remainers believe they didn’t just lost the vote, but that they were lied to during the campaign, and repeatedly lied to during the process of Brexit itself.

    They also feel they have been continually gaslit and provoked by Brexiters.

    Remainers have not forgiven, nor forgotten.
    And we intend to outlive the Brexiters.
    In America.

    LOL
    I am not sure why my current location should be of particular amusement to you, but they do say that unexplained bouts of laughter is a sure sign of insanity.
    Pompous pillock.

    Good luck getting Brexit overturned from the US.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    BigRich said:

    Okay this is me doing my best not to spin it, just play it with two perfectly straight and fair questions any Libdem can ask.

    What is our PB take here, Mail’s investigative project has found nothing new, just bigging up old stuff and even making stuff up into a dodgy dossier - in which case the rebuttal and suing them should be fast and effective?

    Because if these revelations are true, these revelations going to be hugely damaging to Labour and the Labour leadership isn’t it? Their ratings on honesty and trust will be hollowed out, as they will be seen as just as big a liar and hypocritical as Johnson, only with Tories maybe getting a fresh face for GE with Labour lumbered with Starmer for the GE? 😦

    image

    No need to worry, the BBC will make shore it gets little or no attention, and most of the public will be unaware of it.
    But the net will ensure Rayner = Cupid Stunt....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,713
    edited April 2022

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Okay this is me doing my best not to spin it, just play it with two perfectly straight and fair questions any Libdem can ask.

    What is our PB take here, Mail’s investigative project has found nothing new, just bigging up old stuff and even making stuff up into a dodgy dossier - in which case the rebuttal and suing them should be fast and effective?

    Because if these revelations are true, these revelations going to be hugely damaging to Labour and the Labour leadership isn’t it? Their ratings on honesty and trust will be hollowed out, as they will be seen as just as big a liar and hypocritical as Johnson, only with Tories maybe getting a fresh face for GE with Labour lumbered with Starmer for the GE? 😦

    image

    I haven’t been able to read the full article but we’ll know if there’s anything substantial if the BBC and SKY News pick up on it . As the DM has now become just a Bozo fan magazine I’d tend to err on the lots of hysteria and not much substance for the timebeing! If this was an attempt to damage Labour before the council elections it seems a bit strange to do it at this time when most have already returned their postal votes , Parliament is in recess .
    👍🏻 . .
    Regarding the elections . I don’t think the Tories will do as badly as anticipated , I think the Lib Dems will do very well and Labour okay but not make dramatic gains .

    As you’re a Lib Dem I’m happy to say I used to live in Surbiton during the famous Ed Davey win by 52 votes and voted for him . I’m a Labour /Lib Dem mixer and do use my vote tactically if need be . And in Surbition voting Labour is just helping to enable the Tories .
    We went to a party in Surbiton 👍🏻

    I think your analysis of what to expect is spot on. The nations top pesodolphonists have effectively advised us to expect a “meh” nothing to see here, result.
    Jerry and Margot are both voting LD this year.
    They sacrificed while Boris partied.

    (Tom and Barbara have obviously always voted LD).
    Jerry maybe, no way Margo would ever vote anything but Tory
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    It’s amazing. I think some on here might genuinely believe Brexit is detectably a failure and having an impact on average people living normal lives. It’s not just a line they say. Nonsense of course, but they believe it.

    Of course, they probably think I’m mad because in the end, with how it went, I concluded the only answer was a “hard” Brexit and things like the vaccine rubbish and Ukraine have only solidified my view.

    That’s why there’s no point arguing on this matter. My lot won, it won’t be reversed any time soon, and all views are now fixed. Everyone just speaks past each other.

    As long as the 2016 result is maintained as a frozen conflict, you are right. If we are ever to come to any kind of resolution, we will have to address this stuff. Which is why Brexit isn't done, even if it isn't going to be reversed.
    I think it quite possible that Brexit will be reversed, but dont expect it to be in this or the next Parliament.

    We see in the header that Brexitism is losing steam, and pro-EU sentiment maintaining its. It needs to brew somewhat longer, but as the flaws and follies of Brexit get larger, the grass will seem ever greener on the other side.
    Another aspect of this, which I don’t think Brexiters realise, is that Remainers believe they didn’t just lost the vote, but that they were lied to during the campaign, and repeatedly lied to during the process of Brexit itself.

    They also feel they have been continually gaslit and provoked by Brexiters.

    Remainers have not forgiven, nor forgotten.
    And we intend to outlive the Brexiters.
    In America.

    LOL
    I am not sure why my current location should be of particular amusement to you, but they do say that unexplained bouts of laughter is a sure sign of insanity.
    Pompous pillock.

    Good luck getting Brexit overturned from the US.
    I can still enter the UK, of course.
    Despite your knuckle-dragging, xenophobic best efforts.
This discussion has been closed.