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Support for Brexit drops to new low – politicalbetting.com

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  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Leon said:

    Cheers PB from Natchez. Mississippi

    Made it!





    Natchez is a nice town.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    biggles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:

    Is Jonny Depp gonna win this time?

    I've seen bits of his evidence livestreamed. He is very, very funny, running rings round his cross examiners.

    Goering, mind you, had the room in stitches throughout his trial at Nuremberg, and Wilde was pretty good in the witness box, so it is not a prognosticator of the outcome.
    Out of interest, is that true of Goering? Would have assumed it was a joke only I know it’s often said the prosecution of him was incompetent.
    I know it by hearsay. Give me 10 minutes...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,385
    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:

    Is Jonny Depp gonna win this time?

    I've seen bits of his evidence livestreamed. He is very, very funny, running rings round his cross examiners.

    Goering, mind you, had the room in stitches throughout his trial at Nuremberg, and Wilde was pretty good in the witness box, so it is not a prognosticator of the outcome.
    Ken Dodd completely humiliated counsel for the prosecution, of course.

    If Depp wins, what then? Do we have a tiebreaker chaired by a French judge or something?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    edited April 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just imagine how bad it would have been if we didn't hold all the cards.

    Thank goodness for the PM's oven ready deal!

    The irony is the more the government talks about fixing the Northern Ireland Protocol it reminds the voters about Brexit and how badly Boris Johnson has handled it.

    Elect a clown, you get a circus. Still, the punters like the entertainment and nobody worries about anything happening outside the Big Tent...

    IMO, this version of the Tory Party deserves to be utterly routed at the next election and replaced with the sort of Conservatives that used to do competent, fiscal policies. You know..... serious people with some actual ability unlike the suit called Raab and the Hang'em and Flog'em Home Secretary we have.
    You mean like austerity Osborne who you in the left also despised from 2010 to 2015
    Actually, I voted for Cameron and Osborne.

    I suppose from your political viewpoint, that makes me a "Lefty"
    For Socialists the Cameron and Osborne government was worse than the current Boris and Sunak one as it was pursuing deeper spending cuts while this one has even increased spending.

    Liberals however hate this government more than the Coalition, because of Brexit as well as the fact the latter included the LDs unlike this one
    You have a unique ability to know exactly what your opponents think, don't you? You will go far.
    He thinks I'm a Commie, as good as. Which shows how much he knows.

    But it's all bullshit to cover up for the fact he advocates free private schooling on the taxes and rates for himself and his mates - just call then C of E schools and then keep out the riff-raff. Only select for the middle class parents. Job done, especially as it's the rest of us who pay for this subsidy junkie's free private selective schools.

    Conservative, my arse.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    edited April 2022
    darkage said:

    I think you need to ask how many people want another referendum....
    And the answer will be very few people. About 10%
    Even if we did have another vote, few would like the likely terms on offer (free movement, euro, schengen etc), saying Brexit was a bad decision is not quite the same as support for rejoin.
    It has fallen off the agenda.
    I think that the EU has gone back to being an obscure issue that no one particularly cares about.

    Not so, Darkage. A poll asked exactly that in November - 40% said yes, they would like another referendum. 33% said no, they wouldn't.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/most-brits-would-rejoin-eu-if-new-vote-held-survey-shows/

    It's one of those issues that seems to have gone away because no political party is proposing it, but actually it'd probably be a real vote-winner if a party picked it up.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    For Socialists the Cameron and Osborne government was worse than the current Boris and Sunak one as it was pursuing deeper spending cuts while this one has even increased spending.

    Liberals however hate this government more than the Coalition, because of Brexit as well as the fact the latter included the LDs unlike this one

    An interesting distortion of history - the Coalition supported measures to bring the public finances back under control after the disasters of the Brown era and the global financial crash of 2008. The recovery from that and the return of tax receipts helped get the deficit under control.

    The reason the current Conservative administration is "hated" (your word, not mine) by Liberals and liberals is it is far more illiberal than its predecessors as can be seen in the legislation passed which continues to concentrate and centralise power within Whitehall and with Ministers in contrast to the Cameron period where MPs like Nick Hurd strongly supported the de-centralisation of power away from Whitehall and back to accountable local authorities.
    Which does not defeat my point that Socialists hated the Cameron and Osborne government even more than this one at all, even if Liberals loathe this government more than Cameron's
    I'll happily concede the second point but I can't comment on the first as I'm not a socialist though I see where you are coming from in economic terms.

    I suspect there are other aspects of the way this Government comports itself which would annoy socialists far more than anything "the Quad" of Cameron, Clegg, Osborne and Alexander ever proposed.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    For Socialists the Cameron and Osborne government was worse than the current Boris and Sunak one as it was pursuing deeper spending cuts while this one has even increased spending.

    Liberals however hate this government more than the Coalition, because of Brexit as well as the fact the latter included the LDs unlike this one

    An interesting distortion of history - the Coalition supported measures to bring the public finances back under control after the disasters of the Brown era and the global financial crash of 2008. The recovery from that and the return of tax receipts helped get the deficit under control.

    The reason the current Conservative administration is "hated" (your word, not mine) by Liberals and liberals is it is far more illiberal than its predecessors as can be seen in the legislation passed which continues to concentrate and centralise power within Whitehall and with Ministers in contrast to the Cameron period where MPs like Nick Hurd strongly supported the de-centralisation of power away from Whitehall and back to accountable local authorities.
    Nor did previous Conservative administrations advocate drowning migrants / asylum-seekers in the Channel or prosecuting anyone who helped them. Nor did previous administrations suggest proroging Parliament unlawfully, or breaking the laws which they themselves has passed mere months earlier.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    For Socialists the Cameron and Osborne government was worse than the current Boris and Sunak one as it was pursuing deeper spending cuts while this one has even increased spending.

    Liberals however hate this government more than the Coalition, because of Brexit as well as the fact the latter included the LDs unlike this one

    An interesting distortion of history - the Coalition supported measures to bring the public finances back under control after the disasters of the Brown era and the global financial crash of 2008. The recovery from that and the return of tax receipts helped get the deficit under control.

    The reason the current Conservative administration is "hated" (your word, not mine) by Liberals and liberals is it is far more illiberal than its predecessors as can be seen in the legislation passed which continues to concentrate and centralise power within Whitehall and with Ministers in contrast to the Cameron period where MPs like Nick Hurd strongly supported the de-centralisation of power away from Whitehall and back to accountable local authorities.
    Nor did previous Conservative administrations advocate drowning migrants / asylum-seekers in the Channel or prosecuting anyone who helped them. Nor did previous administrations suggest proroging Parliament unlawfully, or breaking the laws which they themselves has passed mere months earlier.
    But they are the wrong kind of Conservative. Like most of the Tories on PB.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    biggles said:

    tlg86 said:

    biggles said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-61260511

    Discussed to death I imagine but…. Wow.

    I was shocked how little attention that received on the Six o'clock News tonight.
    Given what the Kremlin has already said and done this week, it should be top of everyone’s mind. Entirely the right move by the US, but very ballsy - and ballsy on behalf of us all.
    And they've picked the right day to be Ballsy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    moonshine said:

    Is Jonny Depp gonna win this time?

    His lawyers, PR executives and other advisors basically took the loss in London, and prepared like crazy for this one. Every bit of this is scripted, every question that Ms Heard's attorney might throw has been prepared for. And jury consultants have sculpted every part of Mr Depp's demenaor.

    Ms Heard, on the other hand, seems to have assumed that this would be a straight rerun of London, and has been caught rather off guard.

    So, yes, I think he wins this one. But I am equally sure that we are not seeing anything like the real Mr Depp. We are seeing a Mr Depp designed for jury (and public) consumption.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835

    darkage said:

    I think you need to ask how many people want another referendum....
    And the answer will be very few people. About 10%
    Even if we did have another vote, few would like the likely terms on offer (free movement, euro, schengen etc), saying Brexit was a bad decision is not quite the same as support for rejoin.
    It has fallen off the agenda.
    I think that the EU has gone back to being an obscure issue that no one particularly cares about.

    Not so, Darkage. A poll asked exactly that in November - 40% said yes, they would like another referendum. 33% said no, they wouldn't.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/most-brits-would-rejoin-eu-if-new-vote-held-survey-shows/

    It's one of those issues that seems to have gone away because no political party is proposing it, but actually it'd probably be a real vote-winner if a party picked it up.
    IT's particularly interesting in a context of Scottish and NI politics, too.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,909
    CD13 said:

    Moan away if you wish. But most of you don't know why you lost. Saying the same thing again isn't productive, and incidentally, Einstein always denied that quote.

    Anyone who voted for it is a fool or a knave and probably both. Keep believing that. Keep believing that France will welcome us back with open arms. The referendum result could have been different, but the mindset of some Remainers were and remain their worst enemy.

    That is such bullshit. it's quite easy to sell anything to anyone if your claims do not have to have any basis in fact. Before non political advertising was as lawless as political advertising people were told cigarettes made you sexy and were good for you.

    The notion that because more people were persuaded by a pack of lies it therefore was a good wise or correct decision is demented.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    biggles said:

    tlg86 said:

    biggles said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-61260511

    Discussed to death I imagine but…. Wow.

    I was shocked how little attention that received on the Six o'clock News tonight.
    Given what the Kremlin has already said and done this week, it should be top of everyone’s mind. Entirely the right move by the US, but very ballsy - and ballsy on behalf of us all.
    And they've picked the right day to be Ballsy.
    Putin is a Hammers fan and focused on the football?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just imagine how bad it would have been if we didn't hold all the cards.

    Thank goodness for the PM's oven ready deal!

    The irony is the more the government talks about fixing the Northern Ireland Protocol it reminds the voters about Brexit and how badly Boris Johnson has handled it.

    Elect a clown, you get a circus. Still, the punters like the entertainment and nobody worries about anything happening outside the Big Tent...

    IMO, this version of the Tory Party deserves to be utterly routed at the next election and replaced with the sort of Conservatives that used to do competent, fiscal policies. You know..... serious people with some actual ability unlike the suit called Raab and the Hang'em and Flog'em Home Secretary we have.
    You mean like austerity Osborne who you in the left also despised from 2010 to 2015
    Actually, I voted for Cameron and Osborne.

    I suppose from your political viewpoint, that makes me a "Lefty"
    For Socialists the Cameron and Osborne government was worse than the current Boris and Sunak one as it was pursuing deeper spending cuts while this one has even increased spending.

    Liberals however hate this government more than the Coalition, because of Brexit as well as the fact the latter included the LDs unlike this one
    Please explain how voting Conservative makes me a Leftie
    You're not the right kind of Conservative. You're the old kind.
    That is the basic problem and why I switched to LibDem in 2017 and did not vote in 2019.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    IshmaelZ said:

    biggles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:

    Is Jonny Depp gonna win this time?

    I've seen bits of his evidence livestreamed. He is very, very funny, running rings round his cross examiners.

    Goering, mind you, had the room in stitches throughout his trial at Nuremberg, and Wilde was pretty good in the witness box, so it is not a prognosticator of the outcome.
    Out of interest, is that true of Goering? Would have assumed it was a joke only I know it’s often said the prosecution of him was incompetent.
    I know it by hearsay. Give me 10 minutes...
    OK not proven. There's lots of photos of him and other Nazis laughing, in one case apparently at a translator who mistranslated the order of succession after AH as Hess 2, Goering 3 when actually it was the other way round. A joke which is lost in translation, on me anyway

    Spookily there's lots of b&w footage of the trials on youtube.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:

    Is Jonny Depp gonna win this time?

    I've seen bits of his evidence livestreamed. He is very, very funny, running rings round his cross examiners.

    Goering, mind you, had the room in stitches throughout his trial at Nuremberg, and Wilde was pretty good in the witness box, so it is not a prognosticator of the outcome.
    A fat lot of good it did him. He was still sentenced to hang...
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    For Socialists the Cameron and Osborne government was worse than the current Boris and Sunak one as it was pursuing deeper spending cuts while this one has even increased spending.

    Liberals however hate this government more than the Coalition, because of Brexit as well as the fact the latter included the LDs unlike this one

    An interesting distortion of history - the Coalition supported measures to bring the public finances back under control after the disasters of the Brown era and the global financial crash of 2008. The recovery from that and the return of tax receipts helped get the deficit under control.

    The reason the current Conservative administration is "hated" (your word, not mine) by Liberals and liberals is it is far more illiberal than its predecessors as can be seen in the legislation passed which continues to concentrate and centralise power within Whitehall and with Ministers in contrast to the Cameron period where MPs like Nick Hurd strongly supported the de-centralisation of power away from Whitehall and back to accountable local authorities.
    Which does not defeat my point that Socialists hated the Cameron and Osborne government even more than this one at all, even if Liberals loathe this government more than Cameron's
    Talk about stating the bleeding obvious. Yes liberals hate this govt more than the Cameron govt because this govt is much less err liberal.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    darkage said:

    I think you need to ask how many people want another referendum....
    And the answer will be very few people. About 10%
    Even if we did have another vote, few would like the likely terms on offer (free movement, euro, schengen etc), saying Brexit was a bad decision is not quite the same as support for rejoin.
    It has fallen off the agenda.
    I think that the EU has gone back to being an obscure issue that no one particularly cares about.

    Not so, Darkage. A poll asked exactly that in November - 40% said yes, they would like another referendum. 33% said no, they wouldn't.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/most-brits-would-rejoin-eu-if-new-vote-held-survey-shows/

    It's one of those issues that seems to have gone away because no political party is proposing it, but actually it'd probably be a real vote-winner if a party picked it up.
    I think a lot of those Brexit questions are too emotional for some people to answer accurately, which skews the polling. Plenty will still be answering were you in favour of Brexit or is Brexit going well, rather than should we rejoin.

    Rejoin would seem to have a lot of the same delivery problems that leave had back in 2015. It is nostalgic, unstable and ill defined, mostly relying on emotional connection. It would be another act of folly and self harm, so perhaps our brilliant electorate will actually choose it!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:

    Is Jonny Depp gonna win this time?

    I've seen bits of his evidence livestreamed. He is very, very funny, running rings round his cross examiners.

    Goering, mind you, had the room in stitches throughout his trial at Nuremberg, and Wilde was pretty good in the witness box, so it is not a prognosticator of the outcome.
    Ken Dodd completely humiliated counsel for the prosecution, of course.

    If Depp wins, what then? Do we have a tiebreaker chaired by a French judge or something?
    I must be missing the funny bits. The bit I watched was tedious in the extreme
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    edited April 2022

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just imagine how bad it would have been if we didn't hold all the cards.

    Thank goodness for the PM's oven ready deal!

    The irony is the more the government talks about fixing the Northern Ireland Protocol it reminds the voters about Brexit and how badly Boris Johnson has handled it.

    Elect a clown, you get a circus. Still, the punters like the entertainment and nobody worries about anything happening outside the Big Tent...

    IMO, this version of the Tory Party deserves to be utterly routed at the next election and replaced with the sort of Conservatives that used to do competent, fiscal policies. You know..... serious people with some actual ability unlike the suit called Raab and the Hang'em and Flog'em Home Secretary we have.
    You mean like austerity Osborne who you in the left also despised from 2010 to 2015
    Actually, I voted for Cameron and Osborne.

    I suppose from your political viewpoint, that makes me a "Lefty"
    For Socialists the Cameron and Osborne government was worse than the current Boris and Sunak one as it was pursuing deeper spending cuts while this one has even increased spending.

    Liberals however hate this government more than the Coalition, because of Brexit as well as the fact the latter included the LDs unlike this one
    Please explain how voting Conservative makes me a Leftie
    You're not the right kind of Conservative. You're the old kind.
    That is the basic problem and why I switched to LibDem in 2017 and did not vote in 2019.
    The older I get the more I want a proper “none of the above” box. Would be a lot easier for all to see who might not think of spoiling their ballot. Would be the best way of saying “I care and I’m engaged, but I won’t vote any of this mob”.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:

    Is Jonny Depp gonna win this time?

    I've seen bits of his evidence livestreamed. He is very, very funny, running rings round his cross examiners.

    Goering, mind you, had the room in stitches throughout his trial at Nuremberg, and Wilde was pretty good in the witness box, so it is not a prognosticator of the outcome.
    A fat lot of good it did him. He was still sentenced to hang...
    That was the point of my last 8 words...
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    For Socialists the Cameron and Osborne government was worse than the current Boris and Sunak one as it was pursuing deeper spending cuts while this one has even increased spending.

    Liberals however hate this government more than the Coalition, because of Brexit as well as the fact the latter included the LDs unlike this one

    An interesting distortion of history - the Coalition supported measures to bring the public finances back under control after the disasters of the Brown era and the global financial crash of 2008. The recovery from that and the return of tax receipts helped get the deficit under control.

    The reason the current Conservative administration is "hated" (your word, not mine) by Liberals and liberals is it is far more illiberal than its predecessors as can be seen in the legislation passed which continues to concentrate and centralise power within Whitehall and with Ministers in contrast to the Cameron period where MPs like Nick Hurd strongly supported the de-centralisation of power away from Whitehall and back to accountable local authorities.
    Which does not defeat my point that Socialists hated the Cameron and Osborne government even more than this one at all, even if Liberals loathe this government more than Cameron's
    I have put this to my Socialist friends. Anecdote would suggest that you are not anywhere remotely near accurate on that point.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Cheers PB from Natchez. Mississippi

    Made it!





    Natchez is a nice town.
    No, it’s not. It’s grim. Real poverty here with a very thin veneer of tourism making it look ok

    The downtown is a mess, at least by European standards
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    biggles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:

    Is Jonny Depp gonna win this time?

    I've seen bits of his evidence livestreamed. He is very, very funny, running rings round his cross examiners.

    Goering, mind you, had the room in stitches throughout his trial at Nuremberg, and Wilde was pretty good in the witness box, so it is not a prognosticator of the outcome.
    Out of interest, is that true of Goering? Would have assumed it was a joke only I know it’s often said the prosecution of him was incompetent.
    I know it by hearsay. Give me 10 minutes...
    OK not proven. There's lots of photos of him and other Nazis laughing, in one case apparently at a translator who mistranslated the order of succession after AH as Hess 2, Goering 3 when actually it was the other way round. A joke which is lost in translation, on me anyway

    Spookily there's lots of b&w footage of the trials on youtube.
    Shame. I loved the idea of him having a judge in stitches, just as he was reaching for the black cap.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Mogg is having quite the day

    not content with this

    “The remaining import controls on EU goods will no longer be introduced this year – saving British businesses up to £1bn in annual costs” @Jacob_Rees_Mogg admits the Brexit deal will cost £1bn a year https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2022-04-28/hcws796

    he followed up with this

    Implementing Brexit deal we negotiated “an act of self harm” says Rees-Mogg. https://twitter.com/huffpostuk/status/1519738324797345794

    Well, he can put his feet up (again) now

    UK ports consider legal action after Rees-Mogg delays Brexit controls https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/28/uk-sea-ports-consider-legal-action-delay-brexit-controls-jacob-rees-mogg?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Is Jonny Depp gonna win this time?

    His lawyers, PR executives and other advisors basically took the loss in London, and prepared like crazy for this one. Every bit of this is scripted, every question that Ms Heard's attorney might throw has been prepared for. And jury consultants have sculpted every part of Mr Depp's demenaor.

    Ms Heard, on the other hand, seems to have assumed that this would be a straight rerun of London, and has been caught rather off guard.

    So, yes, I think he wins this one. But I am equally sure that we are not seeing anything like the real Mr Depp. We are seeing a Mr Depp designed for jury (and public) consumption.
    “Faecal delivery” was a good line delivered well. Bravo who came up with that.

    Is it not the supporting witness statements that might be the telling blow? Eg The attending police officer saying that he didn’t consider Ms Heard a victim of domestic abuse so he didn’t give her a pamphlet.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Is Jonny Depp gonna win this time?

    His lawyers, PR executives and other advisors basically took the loss in London, and prepared like crazy for this one. Every bit of this is scripted, every question that Ms Heard's attorney might throw has been prepared for. And jury consultants have sculpted every part of Mr Depp's demenaor.

    Ms Heard, on the other hand, seems to have assumed that this would be a straight rerun of London, and has been caught rather off guard.

    So, yes, I think he wins this one. But I am equally sure that we are not seeing anything like the real Mr Depp. We are seeing a Mr Depp designed for jury (and public) consumption.
    have you seen him being cross examined? Presumably that is not rehearsed. The substantive questions might have been, but the reaction to the way they are put is extemporary and, as I say, very funny.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958
    Roger said:

    Interestingly in 2016 Tory Cabinet Ministers voted overwhelmingly Remain. 23 out of 30. I can't find the number of Tory MPs but I'd assume it was a majority. It's easy to forget that Leavers were a small rump gathered around oddballs like IDS

    A small rump gathered round arses.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    edited April 2022

    darkage said:

    I think you need to ask how many people want another referendum....
    And the answer will be very few people. About 10%
    Even if we did have another vote, few would like the likely terms on offer (free movement, euro, schengen etc), saying Brexit was a bad decision is not quite the same as support for rejoin.
    It has fallen off the agenda.
    I think that the EU has gone back to being an obscure issue that no one particularly cares about.

    Not so, Darkage. A poll asked exactly that in November - 40% said yes, they would like another referendum. 33% said no, they wouldn't.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/most-brits-would-rejoin-eu-if-new-vote-held-survey-shows/

    It's one of those issues that seems to have gone away because no political party is proposing it, but actually it'd probably be a real vote-winner if a party picked it up.
    I think a lot of those Brexit questions are too emotional for some people to answer accurately, which skews the polling. Plenty will still be answering were you in favour of Brexit or is Brexit going well, rather than should we rejoin.

    Rejoin would seem to have a lot of the same delivery problems that leave had back in 2015. It is nostalgic, unstable and ill defined, mostly relying on emotional connection. It would be another act of folly and self harm, so perhaps our brilliant electorate will actually choose it!
    OTOH this is a day when Mr R-M has basically admitted that HMG have screwed up their preparations for Brexit and fucked up totally and are postponing some of it for the 4th time - to the degree that the ports are considering suing.

    It'll soon be the 5th anniversary of the vote. A child born on Brexit Day will be at school very soon. Imagine if there were no school places, no school books, no trained teachers ...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/28/uk-sea-ports-consider-legal-action-delay-brexit-controls-jacob-rees-mogg
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:

    Is Jonny Depp gonna win this time?

    I've seen bits of his evidence livestreamed. He is very, very funny, running rings round his cross examiners.

    Goering, mind you, had the room in stitches throughout his trial at Nuremberg, and Wilde was pretty good in the witness box, so it is not a prognosticator of the outcome.
    A fat lot of good it did him. He was still sentenced to hang...
    That was the point of my last 8 words...
    Sorry. You used big words and that confused me ...
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    darkage said:

    I think you need to ask how many people want another referendum....
    And the answer will be very few people. About 10%
    Even if we did have another vote, few would like the likely terms on offer (free movement, euro, schengen etc), saying Brexit was a bad decision is not quite the same as support for rejoin.
    It has fallen off the agenda.
    I think that the EU has gone back to being an obscure issue that no one particularly cares about.

    Not so, Darkage. A poll asked exactly that in November - 40% said yes, they would like another referendum. 33% said no, they wouldn't.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/most-brits-would-rejoin-eu-if-new-vote-held-survey-shows/

    It's one of those issues that seems to have gone away because no political party is proposing it, but actually it'd probably be a real vote-winner if a party picked it up.
    40% of the population are masochists?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    “What is the poverty rate in Natchez, Mississippi?
    The poverty rate in Natchez is 35.9%. One out of every 2.8 residents of Natchez lives in poverty.

    “How many people in Natchez, Mississippi live in poverty?
    5,339 of 14,855 Natchez residents reported income levels below the poverty line in the last year.

    “How does the poverty rate in Natchez compare to the rest of Mississippi?
    The Poverty Rate across the state of Mississippi is 21.5%, meaning Natchez has a dramatically higher than average percentage of residents below the poverty line when compared to the rest of Mississippi.”

    And Mississippi is the poorest state in the USA


    https://www.welfareinfo.org/poverty-rate/mississippi/natchez
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    edited April 2022
    Cookie said:

    I am 100% sure that if we had voted to remain - and then seen the EU behave as they did over vaccines - and prevarication as they have over Ukraine - and spend the last six years attempting to extract more and more to prop up the Euro and extract trade from the city - and we're ruled over by unpopular leaders trying to govern us through a shitstorm who were irrevocably associated with Remain- that we would be seeing just as much regret over the decision to Remain as we do here over leave.

    This seems to me exactly right. The problem does not have a solution (yet anyway) for two big reasons.

    Firstly the immediate reason that in 2016 there was no possible outcome which would command general consent, nor was there an available outcome that was rational. Leaving created a new problem. Remaining failed to solve the old problem.

    Secondly, and still overlooked, because by 2016 the UK population had not, for 40 years, been asked for their wholehearted and informed consent bit by bit for a series of measures which altered the nature of how power and authority and sovereignty worked in the UK. The EU had formed in a way which could never be accepted by a huge chunk of the UK population, but which was a juggernaut we could not do without. This democratic deficit was the biggest policy failure since the war.

    There is still no outcome that commands general consent, just as in 2015 and 2016.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874


    I think a lot of those Brexit questions are too emotional for some people to answer accurately, which skews the polling. Plenty will still be answering were you in favour of Brexit or is Brexit going well, rather than should we rejoin.

    Rejoin would seem to have a lot of the same delivery problems that leave had back in 2015. It is nostalgic, unstable and ill defined, mostly relying on emotional connection. It would be another act of folly and self harm, so perhaps our brilliant electorate will actually choose it!

    The problem for Rejoin will be the conditions for rejoining. It seems inconceivable for example we will get full access to the Single Market without Freedom of Movement and that's going to be the huge sticking point as it was six years ago.

    None of the rest of it matters - as long as we want to control our own immigration policy and not allow open access to all EU citizens, we will be outside the Single Market.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Cheers PB from Natchez. Mississippi

    Made it!





    Natchez is a nice town.
    No, it’s not. It’s grim. Real poverty here with a very thin veneer of tourism making it look ok

    The downtown is a mess, at least by European standards
    The difference between the America I lived in 15 years ago and the America I last visited just before lockdown is quite shocking.

    The middle class barrier between ultra wealth and vast, "developing world" poverty of drugs and cardboard cities has thinned and thinned, to a point that goes a long way to explaining Trumpism.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,652
    Leon said:

    “What is the poverty rate in Natchez, Mississippi?
    The poverty rate in Natchez is 35.9%. One out of every 2.8 residents of Natchez lives in poverty.

    “How many people in Natchez, Mississippi live in poverty?
    5,339 of 14,855 Natchez residents reported income levels below the poverty line in the last year.

    “How does the poverty rate in Natchez compare to the rest of Mississippi?
    The Poverty Rate across the state of Mississippi is 21.5%, meaning Natchez has a dramatically higher than average percentage of residents below the poverty line when compared to the rest of Mississippi.”

    And Mississippi is the poorest state in the USA


    https://www.welfareinfo.org/poverty-rate/mississippi/natchez

    Wonder if poverty is calculated state by state, or nationally.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    Applicant said:

    darkage said:

    I think you need to ask how many people want another referendum....
    And the answer will be very few people. About 10%
    Even if we did have another vote, few would like the likely terms on offer (free movement, euro, schengen etc), saying Brexit was a bad decision is not quite the same as support for rejoin.
    It has fallen off the agenda.
    I think that the EU has gone back to being an obscure issue that no one particularly cares about.

    Not so, Darkage. A poll asked exactly that in November - 40% said yes, they would like another referendum. 33% said no, they wouldn't.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/most-brits-would-rejoin-eu-if-new-vote-held-survey-shows/

    It's one of those issues that seems to have gone away because no political party is proposing it, but actually it'd probably be a real vote-winner if a party picked it up.
    40% of the population are masochists?
    I think "have another referendum" should be read as "wish we could magic the last one and its consequences away."
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    I think you need to ask how many people want another referendum....
    And the answer will be very few people. About 10%
    Even if we did have another vote, few would like the likely terms on offer (free movement, euro, schengen etc), saying Brexit was a bad decision is not quite the same as support for rejoin.
    It has fallen off the agenda.
    I think that the EU has gone back to being an obscure issue that no one particularly cares about.

    Not so, Darkage. A poll asked exactly that in November - 40% said yes, they would like another referendum. 33% said no, they wouldn't.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/most-brits-would-rejoin-eu-if-new-vote-held-survey-shows/

    It's one of those issues that seems to have gone away because no political party is proposing it, but actually it'd probably be a real vote-winner if a party picked it up.
    I think a lot of those Brexit questions are too emotional for some people to answer accurately, which skews the polling. Plenty will still be answering were you in favour of Brexit or is Brexit going well, rather than should we rejoin.

    Rejoin would seem to have a lot of the same delivery problems that leave had back in 2015. It is nostalgic, unstable and ill defined, mostly relying on emotional connection. It would be another act of folly and self harm, so perhaps our brilliant electorate will actually choose it!
    OTOH this is a day when Mr R-M has basically admitted that HMG have screwed up their preparations for Brexit and fucked up totally and are postponing some of it for the 4th time - to the degree that the ports are considering suing.

    It'll soon be the 5th anniversary of the vote. A child born on Brexit Day will be at school very soon. Imagine if there were no school places, no school books, no trained teachers ...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/28/uk-sea-ports-consider-legal-action-delay-brexit-controls-jacob-rees-mogg
    Yes continuing on this path is harmful as well, probably more so.

    We need to move towards a much closer, co-operative partnership but now that we have left that partnership can only be stable if we are outside the EU.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    So the government spent £200 million on border infrastructure which might never be used , decimated small exporters to the EU , just so Bozo could wank on about his oven ready deal.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,500

    Roger said:

    Interestingly in 2016 Tory Cabinet Ministers voted overwhelmingly Remain. 23 out of 30. I can't find the number of Tory MPs but I'd assume it was a majority. It's easy to forget that Leavers were a small rump gathered around oddballs like IDS

    A small rump gathered round arses.
    Cheek to cheek.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    I think you need to ask how many people want another referendum....
    And the answer will be very few people. About 10%
    Even if we did have another vote, few would like the likely terms on offer (free movement, euro, schengen etc), saying Brexit was a bad decision is not quite the same as support for rejoin.
    It has fallen off the agenda.
    I think that the EU has gone back to being an obscure issue that no one particularly cares about.

    Not so, Darkage. A poll asked exactly that in November - 40% said yes, they would like another referendum. 33% said no, they wouldn't.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/most-brits-would-rejoin-eu-if-new-vote-held-survey-shows/

    It's one of those issues that seems to have gone away because no political party is proposing it, but actually it'd probably be a real vote-winner if a party picked it up.
    I think a lot of those Brexit questions are too emotional for some people to answer accurately, which skews the polling. Plenty will still be answering were you in favour of Brexit or is Brexit going well, rather than should we rejoin.

    Rejoin would seem to have a lot of the same delivery problems that leave had back in 2015. It is nostalgic, unstable and ill defined, mostly relying on emotional connection. It would be another act of folly and self harm, so perhaps our brilliant electorate will actually choose it!
    OTOH this is a day when Mr R-M has basically admitted that HMG have screwed up their preparations for Brexit and fucked up totally and are postponing some of it for the 4th time - to the degree that the ports are considering suing.

    It'll soon be the 5th anniversary of the vote. A child born on Brexit Day will be at school very soon. Imagine if there were no school places, no school books, no trained teachers ...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/28/uk-sea-ports-consider-legal-action-delay-brexit-controls-jacob-rees-mogg
    Yes continuing on this path is harmful as well, probably more so.

    We need to move towards a much closer, co-operative partnership but now that we have left that partnership can only be stable if we are outside the EU.
    It's not even as if they are executing a Johnsonian Brexit competently or efficiently.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    I think you need to ask how many people want another referendum....
    And the answer will be very few people. About 10%
    Even if we did have another vote, few would like the likely terms on offer (free movement, euro, schengen etc), saying Brexit was a bad decision is not quite the same as support for rejoin.
    It has fallen off the agenda.
    I think that the EU has gone back to being an obscure issue that no one particularly cares about.

    Not so, Darkage. A poll asked exactly that in November - 40% said yes, they would like another referendum. 33% said no, they wouldn't.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/most-brits-would-rejoin-eu-if-new-vote-held-survey-shows/

    It's one of those issues that seems to have gone away because no political party is proposing it, but actually it'd probably be a real vote-winner if a party picked it up.
    I think a lot of those Brexit questions are too emotional for some people to answer accurately, which skews the polling. Plenty will still be answering were you in favour of Brexit or is Brexit going well, rather than should we rejoin.

    Rejoin would seem to have a lot of the same delivery problems that leave had back in 2015. It is nostalgic, unstable and ill defined, mostly relying on emotional connection. It would be another act of folly and self harm, so perhaps our brilliant electorate will actually choose it!
    OTOH this is a day when Mr R-M has basically admitted that HMG have screwed up their preparations for Brexit and fucked up totally and are postponing some of it for the 4th time - to the degree that the ports are considering suing.

    It'll soon be the 5th anniversary of the vote. A child born on Brexit Day will be at school very soon. Imagine if there were no school places, no school books, no trained teachers ...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/28/uk-sea-ports-consider-legal-action-delay-brexit-controls-jacob-rees-mogg
    Yes continuing on this path is harmful as well, probably more so.

    We need to move towards a much closer, co-operative partnership but now that we have left that partnership can only be stable if we are outside the EU.
    It's not even as if they are executing a Johnsonian Brexit competently or efficiently.
    They certainly spent time practising the eating of cake.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    nico679 said:

    So the government spent £200 million on border infrastructure which might never be used , decimated small exporters to the EU , just so Bozo could wank on about his oven ready deal.

    Basically, yes!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited April 2022

    Just imagine how bad it would have been if we didn't hold all the cards.

    Thank goodness for the PM's oven ready deal!

    The irony is the more the government talks about fixing the Northern Ireland Protocol it reminds the voters about Brexit and how badly Boris Johnson has handled it.

    Baffling, isn't it? You would expect them either to pretend it's all wonderful, lalalala, or change change the subject and never refer to Brexit again. Why would you want to reinforce that (a) your flagship policy is crap and (b) you can't negotiate out of a paper bag?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    rcs1000 said:

    Applicant said:

    CD13 said:

    Ho-hum, are you still complaining about democracy? By it's nature, you win some and you lose some. You lost the argument. Don't you remember? I'm sure it was all over the media.

    I think you need to remember that Democracy means that people can disagree even after the event. "Remain" lost but that does not mean that those who voted that way must shut up forever.

    They are allowed to say it was a mistake, to have a contrary opinion.

    It is called democracy.
    You can say it's a mistake, but unless you're going to advocate Rejoining, it's just a pointless whinge.
    But is life really any more than a succession of pointless whinges, anyway?
    Mine is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    “What is the poverty rate in Natchez, Mississippi?
    The poverty rate in Natchez is 35.9%. One out of every 2.8 residents of Natchez lives in poverty.

    “How many people in Natchez, Mississippi live in poverty?
    5,339 of 14,855 Natchez residents reported income levels below the poverty line in the last year.

    “How does the poverty rate in Natchez compare to the rest of Mississippi?
    The Poverty Rate across the state of Mississippi is 21.5%, meaning Natchez has a dramatically higher than average percentage of residents below the poverty line when compared to the rest of Mississippi.”

    And Mississippi is the poorest state in the USA


    https://www.welfareinfo.org/poverty-rate/mississippi/natchez

    Mississippi of course is now staunch GOP but it used to be staunch Democrat, voting Democrat at every Presidential election from 1872 to 1964. It has always been poor but culturally conservative
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,500
    biggles said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just imagine how bad it would have been if we didn't hold all the cards.

    Thank goodness for the PM's oven ready deal!

    The irony is the more the government talks about fixing the Northern Ireland Protocol it reminds the voters about Brexit and how badly Boris Johnson has handled it.

    Elect a clown, you get a circus. Still, the punters like the entertainment and nobody worries about anything happening outside the Big Tent...

    IMO, this version of the Tory Party deserves to be utterly routed at the next election and replaced with the sort of Conservatives that used to do competent, fiscal policies. You know..... serious people with some actual ability unlike the suit called Raab and the Hang'em and Flog'em Home Secretary we have.
    You mean like austerity Osborne who you in the left also despised from 2010 to 2015
    Actually, I voted for Cameron and Osborne.

    I suppose from your political viewpoint, that makes me a "Lefty"
    For Socialists the Cameron and Osborne government was worse than the current Boris and Sunak one as it was pursuing deeper spending cuts while this one has even increased spending.

    Liberals however hate this government more than the Coalition, because of Brexit as well as the fact the latter included the LDs unlike this one
    Please explain how voting Conservative makes me a Leftie
    You're not the right kind of Conservative. You're the old kind.
    That is the basic problem and why I switched to LibDem in 2017 and did not vote in 2019.
    The older I get the more I want a proper “none of the above” box. Would be a lot easier for all to see who might not think of spoiling their ballot. Would be the best way of saying “I care and I’m engaged, but I won’t vote any of this mob”.
    Or a proper “write in” box.

    Prime Minister Basil Brush it is then.

    Boom boom.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    I think you need to ask how many people want another referendum....
    And the answer will be very few people. About 10%
    Even if we did have another vote, few would like the likely terms on offer (free movement, euro, schengen etc), saying Brexit was a bad decision is not quite the same as support for rejoin.
    It has fallen off the agenda.
    I think that the EU has gone back to being an obscure issue that no one particularly cares about.

    Not so, Darkage. A poll asked exactly that in November - 40% said yes, they would like another referendum. 33% said no, they wouldn't.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/most-brits-would-rejoin-eu-if-new-vote-held-survey-shows/

    It's one of those issues that seems to have gone away because no political party is proposing it, but actually it'd probably be a real vote-winner if a party picked it up.
    I think a lot of those Brexit questions are too emotional for some people to answer accurately, which skews the polling. Plenty will still be answering were you in favour of Brexit or is Brexit going well, rather than should we rejoin.

    Rejoin would seem to have a lot of the same delivery problems that leave had back in 2015. It is nostalgic, unstable and ill defined, mostly relying on emotional connection. It would be another act of folly and self harm, so perhaps our brilliant electorate will actually choose it!
    OTOH this is a day when Mr R-M has basically admitted that HMG have screwed up their preparations for Brexit and fucked up totally and are postponing some of it for the 4th time - to the degree that the ports are considering suing.

    It'll soon be the 5th anniversary of the vote. A child born on Brexit Day will be at school very soon. Imagine if there were no school places, no school books, no trained teachers ...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/28/uk-sea-ports-consider-legal-action-delay-brexit-controls-jacob-rees-mogg
    Yes continuing on this path is harmful as well, probably more so.

    We need to move towards a much closer, co-operative partnership but now that we have left that partnership can only be stable if we are outside the EU.
    EFTA / EEA
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    I am 100% sure that if we had voted to remain - and then seen the EU behave as they did over vaccines - and prevarication as they have over Ukraine - and spend the last six years attempting to extract more and more to prop up the Euro and extract trade from the city - and we're ruled over by unpopular leaders trying to govern us through a shitstorm who were irrevocably associated with Remain- that we would be seeing just as much regret over the decision to Remain as we do here over leave.

    This seems to me exactly right. The problem does not have a solution (yet anyway) for two big reasons.

    Firstly the immediate reason that in 2016 there was no possible outcome which would command general consent, nor was there an available outcome that was rational. Leaving created a new problem. Remaining failed to solve the old problem.

    Secondly, and still overlooked, because by 2016 the UK population had not, for 40 years, been asked for their wholehearted and informed consent bit by bit for a series of measures which altered the nature of how power and authority and sovereignty worked in the UK. The EU had formed in a way which could never be accepted by a huge chunk of the UK population, but which was a juggernaut we could not do without. This democratic deficit was the biggest policy failure since the war.

    There is still no outcome that commands general consent, just as in 2015 and 2016.

    Strong agree with the last part - and for that, Cameron has to take a large share of the blame for the way he designed the referendum in the first place.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,500
    edited April 2022

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Is Moon Rabbit a reincarnation of that Enoch Powell fan whose name I've forgotten?

    Another great avatar from you Rogerdamus.

    Are you a New Wave fan?
    Thank you. One I took in Paris last winter. Yes I am (If you're talking about the French Nouvelle Vague) A big fan. I like most French Cinema of that time.
    As wiki puts it succinctly, a French art film movement that emerged in the late 1950s. The movement was characterized by its rejection of traditional filmmaking conventions in favor of experimentation and a spirit of iconoclasm. New Wave filmmakers explored new approaches to editing, visual style, and narrative, as well as engagement with the social and political upheavals of the era, often making use of irony or exploring existential themes. The New Wave is often considered one of the most influential movements in the history of cinema.

    Are you familiar with David Boring and Like a Velvet Glove Cast in Iron? Struck me as New Wave cinema scripts as soon as I read them. 🙂

    So one of yours. Its excellent because I didn’t think that.
    Mrs Macron didn’t mind you sneaking up and pap her then Roger?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,218
    The nice thing about this question is that there's a good long series of surveys of the same question, so they're super comparable;

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

    Up to Spring 2018, Right and Wrong were nip and tuck with each other. (43 right, 44 wrong in mid May 2018). Since then, there's basically been a glacial shift to now 37 right, 49 wrong). Two blips- one at the start of Covid, the other at the vaccine wars. But otherwise, a very slow shift- a bit more than one percentage point a year. If one were being callous, it looks comparable with what you might expect from a simple model of the age profile of Leave/Remain voters and life expectancy data.

    And that looks like a problem. There's a clear sense of the public thinking this is, on balance, a mistake. Baby Brexit has not endeared itself to peoples' hearts. But at the same time, there's nowhere near a mandate to reverse the policy, and nobody can really face doing that right now anyway.

    It looks like a recipe for being stuck.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited April 2022
    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    For Socialists the Cameron and Osborne government was worse than the current Boris and Sunak one as it was pursuing deeper spending cuts while this one has even increased spending.

    Liberals however hate this government more than the Coalition, because of Brexit as well as the fact the latter included the LDs unlike this one

    An interesting distortion of history - the Coalition supported measures to bring the public finances back under control after the disasters of the Brown era and the global financial crash of 2008. The recovery from that and the return of tax receipts helped get the deficit under control.

    The reason the current Conservative administration is "hated" (your word, not mine) by Liberals and liberals is it is far more illiberal than its predecessors as can be seen in the legislation passed which continues to concentrate and centralise power within Whitehall and with Ministers in contrast to the Cameron period where MPs like Nick Hurd strongly supported the de-centralisation of power away from Whitehall and back to accountable local authorities.
    Which does not defeat my point that Socialists hated the Cameron and Osborne government even more than this one at all, even if Liberals loathe this government more than Cameron's
    I have put this to my Socialist friends. Anecdote would suggest that you are not anywhere remotely near accurate on that point.
    I am, you only have to compare the views of a socialist like BJO on Boris and Starmer and Corbyn on here to those of liberals.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Applicant said:

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    I am 100% sure that if we had voted to remain - and then seen the EU behave as they did over vaccines - and prevarication as they have over Ukraine - and spend the last six years attempting to extract more and more to prop up the Euro and extract trade from the city - and we're ruled over by unpopular leaders trying to govern us through a shitstorm who were irrevocably associated with Remain- that we would be seeing just as much regret over the decision to Remain as we do here over leave.

    This seems to me exactly right. The problem does not have a solution (yet anyway) for two big reasons.

    Firstly the immediate reason that in 2016 there was no possible outcome which would command general consent, nor was there an available outcome that was rational. Leaving created a new problem. Remaining failed to solve the old problem.

    Secondly, and still overlooked, because by 2016 the UK population had not, for 40 years, been asked for their wholehearted and informed consent bit by bit for a series of measures which altered the nature of how power and authority and sovereignty worked in the UK. The EU had formed in a way which could never be accepted by a huge chunk of the UK population, but which was a juggernaut we could not do without. This democratic deficit was the biggest policy failure since the war.

    There is still no outcome that commands general consent, just as in 2015 and 2016.

    Strong agree with the last part - and for that, Cameron has to take a large share of the blame for the way he designed the referendum in the first place.
    Cameron committed an act of supreme constitutional vandalism with his ill-designed referendum.

    It’s also astonishing that the public service let him get away with it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    “What is the poverty rate in Natchez, Mississippi?
    The poverty rate in Natchez is 35.9%. One out of every 2.8 residents of Natchez lives in poverty.

    “How many people in Natchez, Mississippi live in poverty?
    5,339 of 14,855 Natchez residents reported income levels below the poverty line in the last year.

    “How does the poverty rate in Natchez compare to the rest of Mississippi?
    The Poverty Rate across the state of Mississippi is 21.5%, meaning Natchez has a dramatically higher than average percentage of residents below the poverty line when compared to the rest of Mississippi.”

    And Mississippi is the poorest state in the USA


    https://www.welfareinfo.org/poverty-rate/mississippi/natchez

    Wonder if poverty is calculated state by state, or nationally.
    I’m pretty sure it’s done both ways

    America is fascinating for many reasons but one is that you can come here and not see ANY of the social/crime issues if you are carefully steered (which tourism authorities will do. Of course


    I spent last night in Jackson, the capital of MS, and we had lovely cocktails in an antebellum house and then dinner in a chic new restaurant and I fell boozily into bed thinking Well this is refreshing, a nice safe southern city, with great bars and eateries

    Then this morning I saw this:


    “JACKSON, Miss. (WLBT) - People are being killed at a higher rate per capita in the state Capital City than any other major city in the U.S., according to a 3 On Your Side analysis of more than fifty municipalities across the country.

    With 153 killings thus far in 2021, the homicide rate for Jackson is 99.5 per 100,000 residents, a rate that blazes past Memphis, St. Louis, and Baltimore.”

    That murder rate puts it up there with some Latin American disaster zones

    https://www.wlbt.com/2022/01/01/analysis-jacksons-rate-killings-per-capita-ranks-highest-us/
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    stodge said:


    I think a lot of those Brexit questions are too emotional for some people to answer accurately, which skews the polling. Plenty will still be answering were you in favour of Brexit or is Brexit going well, rather than should we rejoin.

    Rejoin would seem to have a lot of the same delivery problems that leave had back in 2015. It is nostalgic, unstable and ill defined, mostly relying on emotional connection. It would be another act of folly and self harm, so perhaps our brilliant electorate will actually choose it!

    The problem for Rejoin will be the conditions for rejoining. It seems inconceivable for example we will get full access to the Single Market without Freedom of Movement and that's going to be the huge sticking point as it was six years ago.

    None of the rest of it matters - as long as we want to control our own immigration policy and not allow open access to all EU citizens, we will be outside the Single Market.
    As long as there is a large group of voters who (rightly) want to be in the SM, and a large group of voters - often the same people - who (rightly) think the SM should not have FoM in its present form there are no good outcomes possible.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    It looks like a recipe for being stuck.

    When we are once again the sick man of Europe, begging to rejoin will be the most popular policy of its day...
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Applicant said:

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    I am 100% sure that if we had voted to remain - and then seen the EU behave as they did over vaccines - and prevarication as they have over Ukraine - and spend the last six years attempting to extract more and more to prop up the Euro and extract trade from the city - and we're ruled over by unpopular leaders trying to govern us through a shitstorm who were irrevocably associated with Remain- that we would be seeing just as much regret over the decision to Remain as we do here over leave.

    This seems to me exactly right. The problem does not have a solution (yet anyway) for two big reasons.

    Firstly the immediate reason that in 2016 there was no possible outcome which would command general consent, nor was there an available outcome that was rational. Leaving created a new problem. Remaining failed to solve the old problem.

    Secondly, and still overlooked, because by 2016 the UK population had not, for 40 years, been asked for their wholehearted and informed consent bit by bit for a series of measures which altered the nature of how power and authority and sovereignty worked in the UK. The EU had formed in a way which could never be accepted by a huge chunk of the UK population, but which was a juggernaut we could not do without. This democratic deficit was the biggest policy failure since the war.

    There is still no outcome that commands general consent, just as in 2015 and 2016.

    Strong agree with the last part - and for that, Cameron has to take a large share of the blame for the way he designed the referendum in the first place.
    Cameron committed an act of supreme constitutional vandalism with his ill-designed referendum.

    It’s also astonishing that the public service let him get away with it.
    They thought that Remain would win so it wouldn't matter.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 645
    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Cheers PB from Natchez. Mississippi

    Made it!





    Natchez is a nice town.
    No, it’s not. It’s grim. Real poverty here with a very thin veneer of tourism making it look ok

    The downtown is a mess, at least by European standards
    The difference between the America I lived in 15 years ago and the America I last visited just before lockdown is quite shocking.

    The middle class barrier between ultra wealth and vast, "developing world" poverty of drugs and cardboard cities has thinned and thinned, to a point that goes a long way to explaining Trumpism.
    I recently visited New York (and the USA) for the first time. It reminded me most of Cape Town. A lot of (mostly white) extreme wealth cheek by jowl with extreme (mostly black) poverty, and a swathe of people somewhere in between, in both senses.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited April 2022
    The Brexit wave function collapsed when Lord Frost resigned.

    It’s now merely a programme of administrative clear-up, policy subterfuge, and occasional performative jingo-ism for those remaining cretins who still believe in Boris.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    I am 100% sure that if we had voted to remain - and then seen the EU behave as they did over vaccines - and prevarication as they have over Ukraine - and spend the last six years attempting to extract more and more to prop up the Euro and extract trade from the city - and we're ruled over by unpopular leaders trying to govern us through a shitstorm who were irrevocably associated with Remain- that we would be seeing just as much regret over the decision to Remain as we do here over leave.

    This seems to me exactly right. The problem does not have a solution (yet anyway) for two big reasons.

    Firstly the immediate reason that in 2016 there was no possible outcome which would command general consent, nor was there an available outcome that was rational. Leaving created a new problem. Remaining failed to solve the old problem.

    Secondly, and still overlooked, because by 2016 the UK population had not, for 40 years, been asked for their wholehearted and informed consent bit by bit for a series of measures which altered the nature of how power and authority and sovereignty worked in the UK. The EU had formed in a way which could never be accepted by a huge chunk of the UK population, but which was a juggernaut we could not do without. This democratic deficit was the biggest policy failure since the war.

    There is still no outcome that commands general consent, just as in 2015 and 2016.

    Strong agree with the last part - and for that, Cameron has to take a large share of the blame for the way he designed the referendum in the first place.
    Cameron committed an act of supreme constitutional vandalism with his ill-designed referendum.

    It’s also astonishing that the public service let him get away with it.
    They thought that Remain would win so it wouldn't matter.
    Probably true.
    Insanity.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    algarkirk said:

    stodge said:


    I think a lot of those Brexit questions are too emotional for some people to answer accurately, which skews the polling. Plenty will still be answering were you in favour of Brexit or is Brexit going well, rather than should we rejoin.

    Rejoin would seem to have a lot of the same delivery problems that leave had back in 2015. It is nostalgic, unstable and ill defined, mostly relying on emotional connection. It would be another act of folly and self harm, so perhaps our brilliant electorate will actually choose it!

    The problem for Rejoin will be the conditions for rejoining. It seems inconceivable for example we will get full access to the Single Market without Freedom of Movement and that's going to be the huge sticking point as it was six years ago.

    None of the rest of it matters - as long as we want to control our own immigration policy and not allow open access to all EU citizens, we will be outside the Single Market.
    As long as there is a large group of voters who (rightly) want to be in the SM, and a large group of voters - often the same people - who (rightly) think the SM should not have FoM in its present form there are no good outcomes possible.

    Why rightly?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    HYUFD said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    For Socialists the Cameron and Osborne government was worse than the current Boris and Sunak one as it was pursuing deeper spending cuts while this one has even increased spending.

    Liberals however hate this government more than the Coalition, because of Brexit as well as the fact the latter included the LDs unlike this one

    An interesting distortion of history - the Coalition supported measures to bring the public finances back under control after the disasters of the Brown era and the global financial crash of 2008. The recovery from that and the return of tax receipts helped get the deficit under control.

    The reason the current Conservative administration is "hated" (your word, not mine) by Liberals and liberals is it is far more illiberal than its predecessors as can be seen in the legislation passed which continues to concentrate and centralise power within Whitehall and with Ministers in contrast to the Cameron period where MPs like Nick Hurd strongly supported the de-centralisation of power away from Whitehall and back to accountable local authorities.
    Which does not defeat my point that Socialists hated the Cameron and Osborne government even more than this one at all, even if Liberals loathe this government more than Cameron's
    I have put this to my Socialist friends. Anecdote would suggest that you are not anywhere remotely near accurate on that point.
    I am, you only have to compare the views of a socialist like BJO on Boris and Starmer and Corbyn on here to those of liberals.

    Out of curiosity, do you consider me to be a Socialist?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,652
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    “What is the poverty rate in Natchez, Mississippi?
    The poverty rate in Natchez is 35.9%. One out of every 2.8 residents of Natchez lives in poverty.

    “How many people in Natchez, Mississippi live in poverty?
    5,339 of 14,855 Natchez residents reported income levels below the poverty line in the last year.

    “How does the poverty rate in Natchez compare to the rest of Mississippi?
    The Poverty Rate across the state of Mississippi is 21.5%, meaning Natchez has a dramatically higher than average percentage of residents below the poverty line when compared to the rest of Mississippi.”

    And Mississippi is the poorest state in the USA


    https://www.welfareinfo.org/poverty-rate/mississippi/natchez

    Wonder if poverty is calculated state by state, or nationally.
    I’m pretty sure it’s done both ways

    America is fascinating for many reasons but one is that you can come here and not see ANY of the social/crime issues if you are carefully steered (which tourism authorities will do. Of course


    I spent last night in Jackson, the capital of MS, and we had lovely cocktails in an antebellum house and then dinner in a chic new restaurant and I fell boozily into bed thinking Well this is refreshing, a nice safe southern city, with great bars and eateries

    Then this morning I saw this:


    “JACKSON, Miss. (WLBT) - People are being killed at a higher rate per capita in the state Capital City than any other major city in the U.S., according to a 3 On Your Side analysis of more than fifty municipalities across the country.

    With 153 killings thus far in 2021, the homicide rate for Jackson is 99.5 per 100,000 residents, a rate that blazes past Memphis, St. Louis, and Baltimore.”

    That murder rate puts it up there with some Latin American disaster zones

    https://www.wlbt.com/2022/01/01/analysis-jacksons-rate-killings-per-capita-ranks-highest-us/
    Yeah, drove from Yosemite to San Fran once and got hopelessly lost on the way in, east side of the bay.

    Unbelievable how grim it was, far worse than a Scottish council estate.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    The nice thing about this question is that there's a good long series of surveys of the same question, so they're super comparable;

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

    Up to Spring 2018, Right and Wrong were nip and tuck with each other. (43 right, 44 wrong in mid May 2018). Since then, there's basically been a glacial shift to now 37 right, 49 wrong). Two blips- one at the start of Covid, the other at the vaccine wars. But otherwise, a very slow shift- a bit more than one percentage point a year. If one were being callous, it looks comparable with what you might expect from a simple model of the age profile of Leave/Remain voters and life expectancy data.

    And that looks like a problem. There's a clear sense of the public thinking this is, on balance, a mistake. Baby Brexit has not endeared itself to peoples' hearts. But at the same time, there's nowhere near a mandate to reverse the policy, and nobody can really face doing that right now anyway.

    It looks like a recipe for being stuck.

    Being stuck is a logical necessity, once you accept that it is essential to be in the SM and essential not to have FOM. We were so stuck when we were in the EU that there had, for political reasons, to be a referendum and we are inevitably stuck now. As we would be if we had voted remain.

    What the history of polling shows essentially is that it was wrong to be in, and wrong to be out. That this has come about it a past and historic policy failure of horrendous proportions.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    The nice thing about this question is that there's a good long series of surveys of the same question, so they're super comparable;

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

    Up to Spring 2018, Right and Wrong were nip and tuck with each other. (43 right, 44 wrong in mid May 2018). Since then, there's basically been a glacial shift to now 37 right, 49 wrong). Two blips- one at the start of Covid, the other at the vaccine wars. But otherwise, a very slow shift- a bit more than one percentage point a year. If one were being callous, it looks comparable with what you might expect from a simple model of the age profile of Leave/Remain voters and life expectancy data.

    And that looks like a problem. There's a clear sense of the public thinking this is, on balance, a mistake. Baby Brexit has not endeared itself to peoples' hearts. But at the same time, there's nowhere near a mandate to reverse the policy, and nobody can really face doing that right now anyway.

    It looks like a recipe for being stuck.

    Yes. Excluding don’t knows, it’s 57/43.
    Wake me up when it’s 60/40.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    The Brexit wave function collapsed when Lord Frost resigned.

    It’s now merely a programme of administrative clear-up, policy subterfuge, and occasional performative jingo-ism for those remaining cretins who still believe in Boris.

    Still fighting it out on Twitter

    A thread on a remarkable speech by @DavidGHFrost in which he admits he blinked in the negotiations & that the PM misled people about the deal, seems oblivious to the damage it has done and has the nerve to portray himself as a Unionist despite risking it to get Brexit done 1/n https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1519358622417006594
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited April 2022

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    I think you need to ask how many people want another referendum....
    And the answer will be very few people. About 10%
    Even if we did have another vote, few would like the likely terms on offer (free movement, euro, schengen etc), saying Brexit was a bad decision is not quite the same as support for rejoin.
    It has fallen off the agenda.
    I think that the EU has gone back to being an obscure issue that no one particularly cares about.

    Not so, Darkage. A poll asked exactly that in November - 40% said yes, they would like another referendum. 33% said no, they wouldn't.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/most-brits-would-rejoin-eu-if-new-vote-held-survey-shows/

    It's one of those issues that seems to have gone away because no political party is proposing it, but actually it'd probably be a real vote-winner if a party picked it up.
    I think a lot of those Brexit questions are too emotional for some people to answer accurately, which skews the polling. Plenty will still be answering were you in favour of Brexit or is Brexit going well, rather than should we rejoin.

    Rejoin would seem to have a lot of the same delivery problems that leave had back in 2015. It is nostalgic, unstable and ill defined, mostly relying on emotional connection. It would be another act of folly and self harm, so perhaps our brilliant electorate will actually choose it!
    OTOH this is a day when Mr R-M has basically admitted that HMG have screwed up their preparations for Brexit and fucked up totally and are postponing some of it for the 4th time - to the degree that the ports are considering suing.

    It'll soon be the 5th anniversary of the vote. A child born on Brexit Day will be at school very soon. Imagine if there were no school places, no school books, no trained teachers ...

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/28/uk-sea-ports-consider-legal-action-delay-brexit-controls-jacob-rees-mogg
    Yes continuing on this path is harmful as well, probably more so.

    We need to move towards a much closer, co-operative partnership but now that we have left that partnership can only be stable if we are outside the EU.
    Yes, eventually. That much closer, co-operative partnership will be largely on the EU's terms, which won't be a comfortable place for a country that rhetorically thinks of itself as world-beating. I don't there is a market for a partnership right now from either the UK or the EU, but it is good to move on from 2016 and start to think about how we can get out of the mess.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Incredibly, Jackson’s murder rate of 99.5 per 100k makes it the 3rd most homicidal city IN THE WORLD - ahead of Ciudad Juarez, way ahead of Cape Town, equal with Caracas, behind only Acapulco and Tijuana


    https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-city-rankings/most-violent-cities-in-the-world


    Trump is going to win in 2024
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Roger said:

    CD13 said:

    Moan away if you wish. But most of you don't know why you lost. Saying the same thing again isn't productive, and incidentally, Einstein always denied that quote.

    Anyone who voted for it is a fool or a knave and probably both. Keep believing that. Keep believing that France will welcome us back with open arms. The referendum result could have been different, but the mindset of some Remainers were and remain their worst enemy.

    That is such bullshit. it's quite easy to sell anything to anyone if your claims do not have to have any basis in fact. Before non political advertising was as lawless as political advertising people were told cigarettes made you sexy and were good for you.

    The notion that because more people were persuaded by a pack of lies it therefore was a good wise or correct decision is demented.
    Wait: are you saying that cigarettes aren't good for me?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Leon said:

    Incredibly, Jackson’s murder rate of 99.5 per 100k makes it the 3rd most homicidal city IN THE WORLD - ahead of Ciudad Juarez, way ahead of Cape Town, equal with Caracas, behind only Acapulco and Tijuana


    https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-city-rankings/most-violent-cities-in-the-world


    Trump is going to win in 2024

    Isn't Mississippi already one of the most Red states in America, with no Democrats in any State-wide positions?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,218

    The nice thing about this question is that there's a good long series of surveys of the same question, so they're super comparable;

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

    Up to Spring 2018, Right and Wrong were nip and tuck with each other. (43 right, 44 wrong in mid May 2018). Since then, there's basically been a glacial shift to now 37 right, 49 wrong). Two blips- one at the start of Covid, the other at the vaccine wars. But otherwise, a very slow shift- a bit more than one percentage point a year. If one were being callous, it looks comparable with what you might expect from a simple model of the age profile of Leave/Remain voters and life expectancy data.

    And that looks like a problem. There's a clear sense of the public thinking this is, on balance, a mistake. Baby Brexit has not endeared itself to peoples' hearts. But at the same time, there's nowhere near a mandate to reverse the policy, and nobody can really face doing that right now anyway.

    It looks like a recipe for being stuck.

    Yes. Excluding don’t knows, it’s 57/43.
    Wake me up when it’s 60/40.
    On current trends, about 2025.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    “What is the poverty rate in Natchez, Mississippi?
    The poverty rate in Natchez is 35.9%. One out of every 2.8 residents of Natchez lives in poverty.

    “How many people in Natchez, Mississippi live in poverty?
    5,339 of 14,855 Natchez residents reported income levels below the poverty line in the last year.

    “How does the poverty rate in Natchez compare to the rest of Mississippi?
    The Poverty Rate across the state of Mississippi is 21.5%, meaning Natchez has a dramatically higher than average percentage of residents below the poverty line when compared to the rest of Mississippi.”

    And Mississippi is the poorest state in the USA


    https://www.welfareinfo.org/poverty-rate/mississippi/natchez

    Wonder if poverty is calculated state by state, or nationally.
    I’m pretty sure it’s done both ways

    America is fascinating for many reasons but one is that you can come here and not see ANY of the social/crime issues if you are carefully steered (which tourism authorities will do. Of course


    I spent last night in Jackson, the capital of MS, and we had lovely cocktails in an antebellum house and then dinner in a chic new restaurant and I fell boozily into bed thinking Well this is refreshing, a nice safe southern city, with great bars and eateries

    Then this morning I saw this:


    “JACKSON, Miss. (WLBT) - People are being killed at a higher rate per capita in the state Capital City than any other major city in the U.S., according to a 3 On Your Side analysis of more than fifty municipalities across the country.

    With 153 killings thus far in 2021, the homicide rate for Jackson is 99.5 per 100,000 residents, a rate that blazes past Memphis, St. Louis, and Baltimore.”

    That murder rate puts it up there with some Latin American disaster zones

    https://www.wlbt.com/2022/01/01/analysis-jacksons-rate-killings-per-capita-ranks-highest-us/
    To put in context, that's about the same as London gets in a year. And London is a lot bigger.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    YouGov are the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 21%
    LD 12%
    Grn 8%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 33%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 3%

    Midlands and Wales
    Con 40%
    Lab 38%
    LD 9%
    Ref 5%
    Grn 4%

    North
    Lab 51%
    Con 29%
    Grn 8%
    LD 8%
    Ref 3%

    Scotland
    SNP 47%
    Lab 23%
    Con 14%
    LD 7%
    Grn 3%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1779; Fieldwork: 26th - 27th April 2022)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Leon said:

    Incredibly, Jackson’s murder rate of 99.5 per 100k makes it the 3rd most homicidal city IN THE WORLD - ahead of Ciudad Juarez, way ahead of Cape Town, equal with Caracas, behind only Acapulco and Tijuana


    https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-city-rankings/most-violent-cities-in-the-world


    Trump is going to win in 2024

    Massive cognitive dissonance there, but I suspect you are right on how people see it.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    edited April 2022

    algarkirk said:

    stodge said:


    I think a lot of those Brexit questions are too emotional for some people to answer accurately, which skews the polling. Plenty will still be answering were you in favour of Brexit or is Brexit going well, rather than should we rejoin.

    Rejoin would seem to have a lot of the same delivery problems that leave had back in 2015. It is nostalgic, unstable and ill defined, mostly relying on emotional connection. It would be another act of folly and self harm, so perhaps our brilliant electorate will actually choose it!

    The problem for Rejoin will be the conditions for rejoining. It seems inconceivable for example we will get full access to the Single Market without Freedom of Movement and that's going to be the huge sticking point as it was six years ago.

    None of the rest of it matters - as long as we want to control our own immigration policy and not allow open access to all EU citizens, we will be outside the Single Market.
    As long as there is a large group of voters who (rightly) want to be in the SM, and a large group of voters - often the same people - who (rightly) think the SM should not have FoM in its present form there are no good outcomes possible.

    Why rightly?
    Because there is a perfectly decent case for the SM, although in its external protectionism was far from perfect, in its essence it was a decent example of Ricardianism along with a reduction in friction. So 'rightly'.

    Because humans are not a commodity, and FOM between economies at very different levels of development has huge cultural and demographic downsides, and a high political price. So 'rightly'.



  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,431

    The nutters on the bus go
    Brexit Brexit Brexit
    Brexit Brexit Brexit
    Brexit Brexit Brexit
    The nutters on the bus go
    Brexit Brexit Brexit
    All through the town

    :lol:

    Don't they just. In this thread in particular.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Boris lied about Brexit, and then he lied about having an oven ready deal.
    He lied to the Northern Irish about a border down the Irish Sea.

    As was predicted, we see a decline in British export performance, a decline in FDI, a decline in the sterling, and instability to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It’s an astonishing legacy, and one has to wonder, when he is finally expelled, how he will psychologically make sense of it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Incredibly, Jackson’s murder rate of 99.5 per 100k makes it the 3rd most homicidal city IN THE WORLD - ahead of Ciudad Juarez, way ahead of Cape Town, equal with Caracas, behind only Acapulco and Tijuana


    https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-city-rankings/most-violent-cities-in-the-world


    Trump is going to win in 2024

    Isn't Mississippi already one of the most Red states in America, with no Democrats in any State-wide positions?
    Indeed, Trump got 57% in Mississippi even in 2020. No Democrat has won the state since Carter.

    Trump needs Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win, Mississippi is already firmly in his column
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    The arrest of British Virgin Islands Premier Andrew Fahie on drugs trafficking and money laundering charges is an appalling development which demonstrates the importance of the Commission of Inquiry into governance on the Territory. My statement here 👇

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/foreign-secretary-statement-on-bvi-premier-arrest
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    stodge said:


    I think a lot of those Brexit questions are too emotional for some people to answer accurately, which skews the polling. Plenty will still be answering were you in favour of Brexit or is Brexit going well, rather than should we rejoin.

    Rejoin would seem to have a lot of the same delivery problems that leave had back in 2015. It is nostalgic, unstable and ill defined, mostly relying on emotional connection. It would be another act of folly and self harm, so perhaps our brilliant electorate will actually choose it!

    The problem for Rejoin will be the conditions for rejoining. It seems inconceivable for example we will get full access to the Single Market without Freedom of Movement and that's going to be the huge sticking point as it was six years ago.

    None of the rest of it matters - as long as we want to control our own immigration policy and not allow open access to all EU citizens, we will be outside the Single Market.
    As long as there is a large group of voters who (rightly) want to be in the SM, and a large group of voters - often the same people - who (rightly) think the SM should not have FoM in its present form there are no good outcomes possible.

    Why rightly?
    Because there is a perfectly decent case for the SM, although in its external protectionism was far from perfect, in its essence it was a decent example of Ricardianism along with a reduction in friction. So 'rightly'.

    Because humans are not a commodity, and FOM between economies at very different levels of development has huge cultural and demographic downsides, and a high political price. So 'rightly'.
    FOM does not imply that “humans are a commodity”. Bizarre you should think so.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593

    The nutters on the bus go
    Brexit Brexit Brexit
    Brexit Brexit Brexit
    Brexit Brexit Brexit
    The nutters on the bus go
    Brexit Brexit Brexit
    All through the town

    :lol:

    Don't they just. In this thread in particular.
    One of the good features of this thread is that it has rather stopped being about Johnsonian Brexit, Right or Wrong? (when Rees Mogg is describing it as a cluster fuck that argument ends)

    Instead it is about what that realisation is doing to voters, and were the trend takes us by 2024/5.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,431

    Boris lied about Brexit, and then he lied about having an oven ready deal.
    He lied to the Northern Irish about a border down the Irish Sea.

    As was predicted, we see a decline in British export performance, a decline in FDI, a decline in the sterling, and instability to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It’s an astonishing legacy, and one has to wonder, when he is finally expelled, how he will psychologically make sense of it.

    So Brexit is to blame for Sterling's decline (that's been happening for over 100 years) is it? Nothing to do with the fact that latterly we've been printing money faster than they can cut down trees.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited April 2022

    YouGov are the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 21%
    LD 12%
    Grn 8%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 33%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 3%

    Midlands and Wales
    Con 40%
    Lab 38%
    LD 9%
    Ref 5%
    Grn 4%

    North
    Lab 51%
    Con 29%
    Grn 8%
    LD 8%
    Ref 3%

    Scotland
    SNP 47%
    Lab 23%
    Con 14%
    LD 7%
    Grn 3%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1779; Fieldwork: 26th - 27th April 2022)

    Still Conservatives lead in the Midlands and South, unless that changes and he also makes more progress in Scotland, Starmer is not going to get a majority even if he does win London and the North convincingly
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593

    Boris lied about Brexit, and then he lied about having an oven ready deal.
    He lied to the Northern Irish about a border down the Irish Sea.

    As was predicted, we see a decline in British export performance, a decline in FDI, a decline in the sterling, and instability to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It’s an astonishing legacy, and one has to wonder, when he is finally expelled, how he will psychologically make sense of it.

    I suspect he will ignore it and flit his butterfly brain to the next thing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    For Socialists the Cameron and Osborne government was worse than the current Boris and Sunak one as it was pursuing deeper spending cuts while this one has even increased spending.

    Liberals however hate this government more than the Coalition, because of Brexit as well as the fact the latter included the LDs unlike this one

    An interesting distortion of history - the Coalition supported measures to bring the public finances back under control after the disasters of the Brown era and the global financial crash of 2008. The recovery from that and the return of tax receipts helped get the deficit under control.

    The reason the current Conservative administration is "hated" (your word, not mine) by Liberals and liberals is it is far more illiberal than its predecessors as can be seen in the legislation passed which continues to concentrate and centralise power within Whitehall and with Ministers in contrast to the Cameron period where MPs like Nick Hurd strongly supported the de-centralisation of power away from Whitehall and back to accountable local authorities.
    Which does not defeat my point that Socialists hated the Cameron and Osborne government even more than this one at all, even if Liberals loathe this government more than Cameron's
    I have put this to my Socialist friends. Anecdote would suggest that you are not anywhere remotely near accurate on that point.
    I am, you only have to compare the views of a socialist like BJO on Boris and Starmer and Corbyn on here to those of liberals.

    Out of curiosity, do you consider me to be a Socialist?
    Social Democrat
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    YouGov are the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 21%
    LD 12%
    Grn 8%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 33%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 3%

    Midlands and Wales
    Con 40%
    Lab 38%
    LD 9%
    Ref 5%
    Grn 4%

    North
    Lab 51%
    Con 29%
    Grn 8%
    LD 8%
    Ref 3%

    Scotland
    SNP 47%
    Lab 23%
    Con 14%
    LD 7%
    Grn 3%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1779; Fieldwork: 26th - 27th April 2022)

    “Ref”? Is that the Farage vehicle? Is it still going and is it standing in the locals?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Boris lied about Brexit, and then he lied about having an oven ready deal.
    He lied to the Northern Irish about a border down the Irish Sea.

    As was predicted, we see a decline in British export performance, a decline in FDI, a decline in the sterling, and instability to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It’s an astonishing legacy, and one has to wonder, when he is finally expelled, how he will psychologically make sense of it.

    So Brexit is to blame for Sterling's decline (that's been happening for over 100 years) is it? Nothing to do with the fact that latterly we've been printing money faster than they can cut down trees.
    A decline in export performance and FDI will themselves cause a decline in currency value, ceteris paribas.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    “What is the poverty rate in Natchez, Mississippi?
    The poverty rate in Natchez is 35.9%. One out of every 2.8 residents of Natchez lives in poverty.

    “How many people in Natchez, Mississippi live in poverty?
    5,339 of 14,855 Natchez residents reported income levels below the poverty line in the last year.

    “How does the poverty rate in Natchez compare to the rest of Mississippi?
    The Poverty Rate across the state of Mississippi is 21.5%, meaning Natchez has a dramatically higher than average percentage of residents below the poverty line when compared to the rest of Mississippi.”

    And Mississippi is the poorest state in the USA


    https://www.welfareinfo.org/poverty-rate/mississippi/natchez

    Wonder if poverty is calculated state by state, or nationally.
    I’m pretty sure it’s done both ways

    America is fascinating for many reasons but one is that you can come here and not see ANY of the social/crime issues if you are carefully steered (which tourism authorities will do. Of course


    I spent last night in Jackson, the capital of MS, and we had lovely cocktails in an antebellum house and then dinner in a chic new restaurant and I fell boozily into bed thinking Well this is refreshing, a nice safe southern city, with great bars and eateries

    Then this morning I saw this:


    “JACKSON, Miss. (WLBT) - People are being killed at a higher rate per capita in the state Capital City than any other major city in the U.S., according to a 3 On Your Side analysis of more than fifty municipalities across the country.

    With 153 killings thus far in 2021, the homicide rate for Jackson is 99.5 per 100,000 residents, a rate that blazes past Memphis, St. Louis, and Baltimore.”

    That murder rate puts it up there with some Latin American disaster zones

    https://www.wlbt.com/2022/01/01/analysis-jacksons-rate-killings-per-capita-ranks-highest-us/
    To put in context, that's about the same as London gets in a year. And London is a lot bigger.
    We lose again? Another example of British decline down the league tables. I blame Brexit.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Sean_F said:

    Leave's problem was that winning was incredibly difficult. Remain's problem is that Leave only had to win once.

    No government is ever going to go back to a decade of negotiation with the EU to rejoin, and the EU is never going to want us back in any case.

    I’m not so sure about the last point.
    I admit both premises are unlikely, though, and the ideological project for Britain must be how to engage with the EU without actually joining.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,661
    HYUFD said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    For Socialists the Cameron and Osborne government was worse than the current Boris and Sunak one as it was pursuing deeper spending cuts while this one has even increased spending.

    Liberals however hate this government more than the Coalition, because of Brexit as well as the fact the latter included the LDs unlike this one

    An interesting distortion of history - the Coalition supported measures to bring the public finances back under control after the disasters of the Brown era and the global financial crash of 2008. The recovery from that and the return of tax receipts helped get the deficit under control.

    The reason the current Conservative administration is "hated" (your word, not mine) by Liberals and liberals is it is far more illiberal than its predecessors as can be seen in the legislation passed which continues to concentrate and centralise power within Whitehall and with Ministers in contrast to the Cameron period where MPs like Nick Hurd strongly supported the de-centralisation of power away from Whitehall and back to accountable local authorities.
    Which does not defeat my point that Socialists hated the Cameron and Osborne government even more than this one at all, even if Liberals loathe this government more than Cameron's
    I have put this to my Socialist friends. Anecdote would suggest that you are not anywhere remotely near accurate on that point.
    I am, you only have to compare the views of a socialist like BJO on Boris and Starmer and Corbyn on here to those of liberals.

    TBF I am a Socialist and I despised Cameron and May more than levelling up Socialist Boris!!!

    Seriously though the deliberate "were in this together" (not) of the austerity years was everything I despise of the Tories. By comparison the Town Deals levelling up monies are at least trying to make amends.

    My own town has had £millions from Boris more than from any Labour Govt. The illusion of Lab, particularly under SKS, being on our side is broken, probably forever, definitely whilst SKS is leader
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Incredibly, Jackson’s murder rate of 99.5 per 100k makes it the 3rd most homicidal city IN THE WORLD - ahead of Ciudad Juarez, way ahead of Cape Town, equal with Caracas, behind only Acapulco and Tijuana


    https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-city-rankings/most-violent-cities-in-the-world


    Trump is going to win in 2024

    Isn't Mississippi already one of the most Red states in America, with no Democrats in any State-wide positions?
    I mean there is a real sense the country is going to the dogs, crime is surging, inflation is rampant, Biden is a demented fool and Harris is a woketastic disaster

    The republicans would walk it if it weren’t for trump being a loathsome bigoted crazy-ass narcissistic teetotal creepaloid weirdo

    But I begin to wonder if the republicans can win even if trump is the candidate: ie trump can win

    What middle Americans crave - I sense - is a no nonsense hard arsed right winger to get a handle on crime and woke and the rest of the diseased lefty shit but they DON’T want Trump. They want a kind of Giuliani (as he was, not how he is)

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    biggles said:

    YouGov are the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 21%
    LD 12%
    Grn 8%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 33%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 3%

    Midlands and Wales
    Con 40%
    Lab 38%
    LD 9%
    Ref 5%
    Grn 4%

    North
    Lab 51%
    Con 29%
    Grn 8%
    LD 8%
    Ref 3%

    Scotland
    SNP 47%
    Lab 23%
    Con 14%
    LD 7%
    Grn 3%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1779; Fieldwork: 26th - 27th April 2022)

    “Ref”? Is that the Farage vehicle? Is it still going and is it standing in the locals?
    RefUK are standing in Redbridge in a few wards and here in Epping Forest too in Ongar
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,431
    mwadams said:

    Boris lied about Brexit, and then he lied about having an oven ready deal.
    He lied to the Northern Irish about a border down the Irish Sea.

    As was predicted, we see a decline in British export performance, a decline in FDI, a decline in the sterling, and instability to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It’s an astonishing legacy, and one has to wonder, when he is finally expelled, how he will psychologically make sense of it.

    I suspect he will ignore it and flit his butterfly brain to the next thing.
    By coincidence, that's exactly what I do when PB's remainiac contingent start doing their pub bore act.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    biggles said:

    YouGov are the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.

    London
    Lab 50%
    Con 21%
    LD 12%
    Grn 8%

    Rest of South
    Con 41%
    Lab 33%
    LD 14%
    Grn 7%
    Ref 3%

    Midlands and Wales
    Con 40%
    Lab 38%
    LD 9%
    Ref 5%
    Grn 4%

    North
    Lab 51%
    Con 29%
    Grn 8%
    LD 8%
    Ref 3%

    Scotland
    SNP 47%
    Lab 23%
    Con 14%
    LD 7%
    Grn 3%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1779; Fieldwork: 26th - 27th April 2022)

    “Ref”? Is that the Farage vehicle? Is it still going and is it standing in the locals?
    It’s incredible that the Tories are still ahead in the Midlands. Do they suffer from very poor channels of communication inland?

    Is it, essentially, still 2019 or something in Nuneaton?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Boris lied about Brexit, and then he lied about having an oven ready deal.
    He lied to the Northern Irish about a border down the Irish Sea.

    As was predicted, we see a decline in British export performance, a decline in FDI, a decline in the sterling, and instability to the Good Friday Agreement.

    It’s an astonishing legacy, and one has to wonder, when he is finally expelled, how he will psychologically make sense of it.

    I doubt he will care. I expect him to be too busy looking for money-making opportunities from his time as PM
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    “What is the poverty rate in Natchez, Mississippi?
    The poverty rate in Natchez is 35.9%. One out of every 2.8 residents of Natchez lives in poverty.

    “How many people in Natchez, Mississippi live in poverty?
    5,339 of 14,855 Natchez residents reported income levels below the poverty line in the last year.

    “How does the poverty rate in Natchez compare to the rest of Mississippi?
    The Poverty Rate across the state of Mississippi is 21.5%, meaning Natchez has a dramatically higher than average percentage of residents below the poverty line when compared to the rest of Mississippi.”

    And Mississippi is the poorest state in the USA


    https://www.welfareinfo.org/poverty-rate/mississippi/natchez

    Wonder if poverty is calculated state by state, or nationally.
    I’m pretty sure it’s done both ways

    America is fascinating for many reasons but one is that you can come here and not see ANY of the social/crime issues if you are carefully steered (which tourism authorities will do. Of course


    I spent last night in Jackson, the capital of MS, and we had lovely cocktails in an antebellum house and then dinner in a chic new restaurant and I fell boozily into bed thinking Well this is refreshing, a nice safe southern city, with great bars and eateries

    Then this morning I saw this:


    “JACKSON, Miss. (WLBT) - People are being killed at a higher rate per capita in the state Capital City than any other major city in the U.S., according to a 3 On Your Side analysis of more than fifty municipalities across the country.

    With 153 killings thus far in 2021, the homicide rate for Jackson is 99.5 per 100,000 residents, a rate that blazes past Memphis, St. Louis, and Baltimore.”

    That murder rate puts it up there with some Latin American disaster zones

    https://www.wlbt.com/2022/01/01/analysis-jacksons-rate-killings-per-capita-ranks-highest-us/
    To put in context, that's about the same as London gets in a year. And London is a lot bigger.
    London's murder rate is also sharply down this year so far (especially involving guns)

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/apr/25/no-london-shooting-deaths-in-six-months-as-police-stifle-gun-trade
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    edited April 2022
    Sean_F said:

    Leave's problem was that winning was incredibly difficult. Remain's problem is that Leave only had to win once.

    No government is ever going to go back to a decade of negotiation with the EU to rejoin, and the EU is never going to want us back in any case.

    Yup. Picture it - a government behind in the polls tries to negotiate entry to the EU, or even just the EEA, while the Tory opposition highlights all the issues with it and says it will leave again on taking office. We’d be vetoed.

    We’re not going back for many years, if ever. But we might join enough peripheral, linked, things to count as “half in” like we used to be “half out”.
This discussion has been closed.