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Ipsos: 57% say MPs should be able to accuse each other of lying – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,975
    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I happened to be driving when PMQs was on today. Blimey, it was tedious. SKS is so dull. No doubt his repeat at the end of every question sounded powerful in his bedroom mirror this morning but there was no bite in it whatsoever.
    Boris just blusters away repeating the same half relevant statistics time and again without addressing the question. Blackford is utterly tedious and sanctimonious. Ed Davies didn't even bother to turn up which was a good call by him.

    Would this be any better if they were also calling each other liars? Probably not. It is undignifed and pointless already.

    Re half-relevant statistics at PMQs, Boris claimed 13,500 new coppers, ahead of the government's target of 12,000 but isn't the target 20,000 per the manifesto, or is Boris working on 4,000 a year?
    Who knows? He just bleathers. If we got 1% of the “forensic cross examination” we were promised from SKS he wouldn’t get away with this nonsense.
    But wide open generalised questions in search of a theme let Boris go wherever he wants. It’s really poor work for a former prosecutor, it really is.
    I am not convinced Keir was a “proper” prosecutor.

    Perhaps it’s different in a court.
    There is not much evidence on his wikipedia page of actual sharp end, thinking on your feet, prosecuting involving cross-examination of defendants and witnesses, which is what's required for pmq. He spent his time advising liberty, defending mclibel etc. Dreary stuff where the most interesting thing that gets said all day is the judge asking Would this be a good time to break for lunch.
    He oversells his role in McLibel
  • Options
    RattersRatters Posts: 775
    A curve ball on debt financing is that the Bank of England has already started reducing the amount of quantitative easing bonds held by not reinvesting maturing bond proceeds. It is quite possible they will start selling bonds in held in the market later this year (we may find out more next Thursday).

    Essentially the money printer needs to go into reverse as otherwise GBP will depreciate precipitously versus the dollar and any other market that gets inflation under control. We're already seeing this with GBP/USD at 1.25 now.

    But we don't need to panic on spending. There's plenty of demand for UK debt. Too much focus in UK politics is counting pennies rather than promoting growth. I could have spent my early 20s budgeting to try to save on a modest income, but spending all I earned while working to get paid multiples more, and saving at that point, is the better approach.

    Let's relax planning permission and change rules to promote mass house building. Replace stamp duty with an annual property tax to improve labour mobility. Spend money on infrastructure that can later be privatised at a profit (so no debt increase). Encourage greater training for career changes after age 21.

    Start having a politics of investing in our country rather than acting as an accountant.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,216

    Ukraine should invite Romania to station troops in that detached bit of the Odessa oblast.

    Even a very cursory knowledge of history tells you that inviting in troops from a foreign country to occupy part of your own country rarely ends well.
    Do you think the Baltic states should expel foreign NATO forces?
    Do you think a mouse is safer when a cat patrols the mouse-hole?
    Having NATO around is more like having a Llama in the herd of sheep.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,975

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.
    Where did i claim you ran a charity shop, I said MP's should rarely be allowed to run one.
    No. I ran a charity shop. Why can’t I become a MP. Unless I’m rare?
    Well done. Although there are people on here who think you are blue.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    As someone who once tried to open a childminding business in our home with the ex-missus, (both former kindergarten teachers), I can wholeheartedly agree with this.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    I rather liked one eminent PBer’s very honest account of (briefly) watching hotel porn on a business trip. From memory, he flicked on the ‘free’ six minutes, got bored and went back to his copy of The Times, forgetting to stop the porn feed. Next morning was landed with a bill and a head scratch about how to administer the expense…
    Was it @BlancheLivermore?

    His story of collapsing onto the luggage carousel for a bit of shut-eye was 💯
    Guess again! It’s fairly unlikely, who it was…
    Big G
    OGH
    Charles
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940

    Roger said:

    I just watched PMQs. I think Starmer is definitely improving.....

    Johnson always blusters but today seemed worse than usual. He answered questions he wasn't asked and sometimes repeated himself as many as three times. I can't imagine those behind him being anything other than alarmed. He was like a talk your weight machine out of control

    Starmer by contrast seemed like the adult in the room. He's definitely being coached. This undramatic but assured manner suits him and if he keeps it going his reviews will start to improve.

    A “talk your weight machine out of control”.

    Genius. Straight up the best ever sketch of Boris.
    We were earlier assured he was the very template of dispatch box wit and wisdom today.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Con Maj lengthening. Now 3.55
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,216

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    Indeed.

    The hand that rocks the cradle rules the bank.
    When the current regulations on ratios of children to careers were introduced, New lAbour were warned what would happen, in some detail. They went ahead and the prophecies were exactly fulfilled.

    1) "Proper' childcare became very expensive - in London, it's not far off fees for private school. So more and more middle class people have their budgets "stretched" ready to go straight through to the private sector.
    2) If you are rich enough to have a house with a spare room, AuPairs are just as unregulated as before. And just as cheap.
    3) If you aren't in the first 2 categories, you use unregulated child minding. Which is cheap and a bit like mini cabs used to be in London, before they made them legal....
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845

    Con Maj lengthening. Now 3.55

    Lol. Boris knocked it out the park again.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Roger said:

    I just watched PMQs. I think Starmer is definitely improving.....

    Johnson always blusters but today seemed worse than usual. He answered questions he wasn't asked and sometimes repeated himself as many as three times. I can't imagine those behind him being anything other than alarmed. He was like a talk your weight machine out of control

    Starmer by contrast seemed like the adult in the room. He's definitely being coached. This undramatic but assured manner suits him and if he keeps it going his reviews will start to improve.

    A “talk your weight machine out of control”.

    Genius. Straight up the best ever sketch of Boris.
    One Way Pendulum
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.
    Where did i claim you ran a charity shop, I said MP's should rarely be allowed to run one.
    No. I ran a charity shop. Why can’t I become a MP. Unless I’m rare?
    Well done. Although there are people on here who think you are blue.
    Chapeau.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    I rather liked one eminent PBer’s very honest account of (briefly) watching hotel porn on a business trip. From memory, he flicked on the ‘free’ six minutes, got bored and went back to his copy of The Times, forgetting to stop the porn feed. Next morning was landed with a bill and a head scratch about how to administer the expense…
    Was it @BlancheLivermore?

    His story of collapsing onto the luggage carousel for a bit of shut-eye was 💯
    Guess again! It’s fairly unlikely, who it was…
    Big G
    OGH
    Charles
    Nope!
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902
    dixiedean said:

    Roger said:

    I just watched PMQs. I think Starmer is definitely improving.....

    Johnson always blusters but today seemed worse than usual. He answered questions he wasn't asked and sometimes repeated himself as many as three times. I can't imagine those behind him being anything other than alarmed. He was like a talk your weight machine out of control

    Starmer by contrast seemed like the adult in the room. He's definitely being coached. This undramatic but assured manner suits him and if he keeps it going his reviews will start to improve.

    A “talk your weight machine out of control”.

    Genius. Straight up the best ever sketch of Boris.
    We were earlier assured he was the very template of dispatch box wit and wisdom today.
    Never? Who’d a thunk it?
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Northern Ireland Assembly Most Seats - Best prices

    Sinn Féin 1.2
    DUP 5.5
    Alliance 20
    SDLP 42
    UUP 44
    TUV 201

  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    Indeed.

    The hand that rocks the cradle rules the bank.
    When the current regulations on ratios of children to careers were introduced, New lAbour were warned what would happen, in some detail. They went ahead and the prophecies were exactly fulfilled.

    1) "Proper' childcare became very expensive - in London, it's not far off fees for private school. So more and more middle class people have their budgets "stretched" ready to go straight through to the private sector.
    2) If you are rich enough to have a house with a spare room, AuPairs are just as unregulated as before. And just as cheap.
    3) If you aren't in the first 2 categories, you use unregulated child minding. Which is cheap and a bit like mini cabs used to be in London, before they made them legal....
    Dunno about 1.

    I am in that category and the second I could get him out of paid childcare I resolved to piss the money up the wall on good wining and dining instead.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    edited April 2022
    Ratters said:

    A curve ball on debt financing is that the Bank of England has already started reducing the amount of quantitative easing bonds held by not reinvesting maturing bond proceeds. It is quite possible they will start selling bonds in held in the market later this year (we may find out more next Thursday).

    Essentially the money printer needs to go into reverse as otherwise GBP will depreciate precipitously versus the dollar and any other market that gets inflation under control. We're already seeing this with GBP/USD at 1.25 now.

    But we don't need to panic on spending. There's plenty of demand for UK debt. Too much focus in UK politics is counting pennies rather than promoting growth. I could have spent my early 20s budgeting to try to save on a modest income, but spending all I earned while working to get paid multiples more, and saving at that point, is the better approach.

    Let's relax planning permission and change rules to promote mass house building. Replace stamp duty with an annual property tax to improve labour mobility. Spend money on infrastructure that can later be privatised at a profit (so no debt increase). Encourage greater training for career changes after age 21.

    Start having a politics of investing in our country rather than acting as an accountant.

    Plus 100, with the caveat that government spending should not exacerbate inflation.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    Ratters said:

    A curve ball on debt financing is that the Bank of England has already started reducing the amount of quantitative easing bonds held by not reinvesting maturing bond proceeds. It is quite possible they will start selling bonds in held in the market later this year (we may find out more next Thursday).

    Essentially the money printer needs to go into reverse as otherwise GBP will depreciate precipitously versus the dollar and any other market that gets inflation under control. We're already seeing this with GBP/USD at 1.25 now.

    But we don't need to panic on spending. There's plenty of demand for UK debt. Too much focus in UK politics is counting pennies rather than promoting growth. I could have spent my early 20s budgeting to try to save on a modest income, but spending all I earned while working to get paid multiples more, and saving at that point, is the better approach.

    Let's relax planning permission and change rules to promote mass house building. Replace stamp duty with an annual property tax to improve labour mobility. Spend money on infrastructure that can later be privatised at a profit (so no debt increase). Encourage greater training for career changes after age 21.

    Start having a politics of investing in our country rather than acting as an accountant.

    I kindof agree.

    My problem is, I think we’ve missed the boat.

    The time to do all of this (government borrowing/spending/mass house building) was post-GFC. Instead we had stupid austerity “cutting our cloth” policies.

    Now, it actually is the time to be running balanced budgets.

    I’m generally a fiscally dry kindof guy, but I think the tories got it all wrong post 2008.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,216

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    Indeed.

    The hand that rocks the cradle rules the bank.
    When the current regulations on ratios of children to careers were introduced, New lAbour were warned what would happen, in some detail. They went ahead and the prophecies were exactly fulfilled.

    1) "Proper' childcare became very expensive - in London, it's not far off fees for private school. So more and more middle class people have their budgets "stretched" ready to go straight through to the private sector.
    2) If you are rich enough to have a house with a spare room, AuPairs are just as unregulated as before. And just as cheap.
    3) If you aren't in the first 2 categories, you use unregulated child minding. Which is cheap and a bit like mini cabs used to be in London, before they made them legal....
    Dunno about 1.

    I am in that category and the second I could get him out of paid childcare I resolved to piss the money up the wall on good wining and dining instead.
    Ha. What did the wife say?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.
    Where did i claim you ran a charity shop, I said MP's should rarely be allowed to run one.
    No. I ran a charity shop. Why can’t I become a MP. Unless I’m rare?
    Well done. Although there are people on here who think you are blue.
    Elegant wordplay.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Con Maj lengthening. Now 3.55

    Lol. Boris knocked it out the park again.
    Which would explain why Con Maj is lengthening.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    I just watched PMQs. I think Starmer is definitely improving.....

    Johnson always blusters but today seemed worse than usual. He answered questions he wasn't asked and sometimes repeated himself as many as three times. I can't imagine those behind him being anything other than alarmed. He was like a talk your weight machine out of control

    Starmer by contrast seemed like the adult in the room. He's definitely being coached. This undramatic but assured manner suits him and if he keeps it going his reviews will start to improve.

    I didn't think Starmer performed well at all today. Johnson was very self assured and shot every fox. Granted, every answer was absolute b*ll*cks, but it was very self-assured absolute b*ll*cks.
    But his audience are MPs and therefore not uniformly stupid. If they were listening to the content it was non existant. Sounding self confident might have worked if he was talikng to a junior school but it was as you suggest just repetitive blustering bollocks. It's a while since I've listened to one
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,043

    Ukraine should invite Romania to station troops in that detached bit of the Odessa oblast.

    Even a very cursory knowledge of history tells you that inviting in troops from a foreign country to occupy part of your own country rarely ends well.
    Do you think the Baltic states should expel foreign NATO forces?
    Do you think a mouse is safer when a cat patrols the mouse-hole?
    I am struggling to understand how that particular analogy works. Are you suggesting NATO is the cat?
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    edited April 2022
    ping said:

    Ratters said:

    A curve ball on debt financing is that the Bank of England has already started reducing the amount of quantitative easing bonds held by not reinvesting maturing bond proceeds. It is quite possible they will start selling bonds in held in the market later this year (we may find out more next Thursday).

    Essentially the money printer needs to go into reverse as otherwise GBP will depreciate precipitously versus the dollar and any other market that gets inflation under control. We're already seeing this with GBP/USD at 1.25 now.

    But we don't need to panic on spending. There's plenty of demand for UK debt. Too much focus in UK politics is counting pennies rather than promoting growth. I could have spent my early 20s budgeting to try to save on a modest income, but spending all I earned while working to get paid multiples more, and saving at that point, is the better approach.

    Let's relax planning permission and change rules to promote mass house building. Replace stamp duty with an annual property tax to improve labour mobility. Spend money on infrastructure that can later be privatised at a profit (so no debt increase). Encourage greater training for career changes after age 21.

    Start having a politics of investing in our country rather than acting as an accountant.

    I kindof agree.

    My problem is, I think we’ve missed the boat.

    The time to do all of this (government borrowing/spending/mass house building) was post-GFC. Instead we had stupid austerity “cutting our cloth” policies.

    Now, it actually is the time to be running balanced budgets.

    I’m generally a fiscally dry kindof guy, but I think the tories got it all wrong post 2008.
    It’s seems to be the consensus now that the UK’s fiscal contraction after 2010 was too aggressive, but that’s hindsight.

    At the time, it seemed broadly the right course (and Tory output ended up coinciding with Labour plans).

    What we needed was a change of approach after 2015. Instead we fucked it all away on Brexit.

    As you imply now, we’ve got an inflation problem to attend to which makes more government spending problematic.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,235

    Roger said:

    I just watched PMQs. I think Starmer is definitely improving.....

    Johnson always blusters but today seemed worse than usual. He answered questions he wasn't asked and sometimes repeated himself as many as three times. I can't imagine those behind him being anything other than alarmed. He was like a talk your weight machine out of control

    Starmer by contrast seemed like the adult in the room. He's definitely being coached. This undramatic but assured manner suits him and if he keeps it going his reviews will start to improve.

    I didn't think Starmer performed well at all today. Johnson was very self assured and shot every fox. Granted, every answer was absolute b*ll*cks, but it was very self-assured absolute b*ll*cks.
    It is noticeable that Conservative whips have reversed their ban on barracking Starmer, presumably because it has been decided Boris no longer needs to react to, or even hear, the questions. Previously Boris would answer five questions before ranting after the sixth.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    So a single carer can look after zero children?

    How does that scale?
  • Options
    LDLFLDLF Posts: 144
    edited April 2022

    LDLF said:

    This is less a question of whether Johnson's approach to the truth is of lower rectitude than that of Blair, Lloyd George, Palmerston or Walpole, and more a question of whether our more open and immediate public culture, driven by 24 hr-news cycle and particularly social media, demands greater probity of public figures. It seems, for the moment, that it does, though standards may vary depending on country and indeed political persuasion.

    Ultimately no politician should expect their opponents not to take advantage of any scandal they can find. Johnson has only himself to blame for any scandal he is found to be involved in, but it is fair to say that scandals are more easily and immediately discovered these days - a good thing for politics perhaps, if not for politicians.

    Hypocrisy is the killer. As with Boris and partygate rather than, say, wallpapergate which is arguably more serious, so with drugs. Lots of politicians are known to have indulged but the only man to have suffered was Michael Gove whose leadership campaign was derailed because as Education Secretary, he had advocated sacking teachers who followed his example.
    I agree, hypocrisy seems to be the cardinal sin in politics: do as I say, not as I do.

    But the value in it is to show what is being said to be nonsense. If a politician decries the existence of private schools and then sends their own child to one, it doesn't make them an awful person - but it does suggest that the policy they espouse might not be correct. They are not wrong to have sent their child to the private school; they are wrong to espouse the policy.

    Likewise, my main takeaway from No 10's hypocrisy is that Johnson wasn't wrong to take a slice of cake - he was wrong to impose these sweeping and draconian rules in the first place.

    But this doesn't seem to be the angle any of his critics are taking, at least in the mainstream.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    Indeed.

    The hand that rocks the cradle rules the bank.
    When the current regulations on ratios of children to careers were introduced, New lAbour were warned what would happen, in some detail. They went ahead and the prophecies were exactly fulfilled.

    1) "Proper' childcare became very expensive - in London, it's not far off fees for private school. So more and more middle class people have their budgets "stretched" ready to go straight through to the private sector.
    2) If you are rich enough to have a house with a spare room, AuPairs are just as unregulated as before. And just as cheap.
    3) If you aren't in the first 2 categories, you use unregulated child minding. Which is cheap and a bit like mini cabs used to be in London, before they made them legal....
    Dunno about 1.

    I am in that category and the second I could get him out of paid childcare I resolved to piss the money up the wall on good wining and dining instead.
    Ha. What did the wife say?
    She joined me. State schools round here are good so why pay more? 🙂
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845

    Con Maj lengthening. Now 3.55

    Lol. Boris knocked it out the park again.
    Which would explain why Con Maj is lengthening.
    I was being sarcastic.
    But I guess I shouldn’t assume every poster can remember my leanings; I certainly don’t have an encyclopaedic memory of everyone else’s.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Eurovision Winner

    Ukraine 1.93
    Italy 6
    Sweden 9.4
    England and satellite states 13.5
    Castile and satellite states 22
    50 bar
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    I rather liked one eminent PBer’s very honest account of (briefly) watching hotel porn on a business trip. From memory, he flicked on the ‘free’ six minutes, got bored and went back to his copy of The Times, forgetting to stop the porn feed. Next morning was landed with a bill and a head scratch about how to administer the expense…
    Was it @BlancheLivermore?

    His story of collapsing onto the luggage carousel for a bit of shut-eye was 💯
    Guess again! It’s fairly unlikely, who it was…
    Big G
    OGH
    Charles
    Nope!
    I actually think it was rcs100.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,043
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    I just watched PMQs. I think Starmer is definitely improving.....

    Johnson always blusters but today seemed worse than usual. He answered questions he wasn't asked and sometimes repeated himself as many as three times. I can't imagine those behind him being anything other than alarmed. He was like a talk your weight machine out of control

    Starmer by contrast seemed like the adult in the room. He's definitely being coached. This undramatic but assured manner suits him and if he keeps it going his reviews will start to improve.

    I didn't think Starmer performed well at all today. Johnson was very self assured and shot every fox. Granted, every answer was absolute b*ll*cks, but it was very self-assured absolute b*ll*cks.
    But his audience are MPs and therefore not uniformly stupid. If they were listening to the content it was non existant. Sounding self confident might have worked if he was talikng to a junior school but it was as you suggest just repetitive blustering bollocks. It's a while since I've listened to one
    It could be that the expectations of Johnson's um, err performance is such that when he is marginally fluent he appears competent. No one listens to the content anyway
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,584
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    So a single carer can look after zero children?

    How does that scale?
    You're misreading; there are no limits rather than a limit of zero. I.e. a single carer can have infinite children to look after.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,359

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    I rather liked one eminent PBer’s very honest account of (briefly) watching hotel porn on a business trip. From memory, he flicked on the ‘free’ six minutes, got bored and went back to his copy of The Times, forgetting to stop the porn feed. Next morning was landed with a bill and a head scratch about how to administer the expense…
    Was it @BlancheLivermore?

    His story of collapsing onto the luggage carousel for a bit of shut-eye was 💯
    Guess again! It’s fairly unlikely, who it was…
    Big G
    OGH
    Charles
    Nope!
    I actually think it was rcs100.
    I remember that story! It was Nick Palmer!
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,116

    Eurovision Winner

    Ukraine 1.93
    Italy 6
    Sweden 9.4
    England and satellite states 13.5
    Castile and satellite states 22
    50 bar

    I’ve heard the U.K. entry and I’d give it 100. It’s another shocker.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    I rather liked one eminent PBer’s very honest account of (briefly) watching hotel porn on a business trip. From memory, he flicked on the ‘free’ six minutes, got bored and went back to his copy of The Times, forgetting to stop the porn feed. Next morning was landed with a bill and a head scratch about how to administer the expense…
    Was it @BlancheLivermore?

    His story of collapsing onto the luggage carousel for a bit of shut-eye was 💯
    Guess again! It’s fairly unlikely, who it was…
    Big G
    OGH
    Charles
    Nope!
    I actually think it was rcs100.
    I remember that story! It was Nick Palmer!
    LOOOOOOOLLL!
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,800

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    I rather liked one eminent PBer’s very honest account of (briefly) watching hotel porn on a business trip. From memory, he flicked on the ‘free’ six minutes, got bored and went back to his copy of The Times, forgetting to stop the porn feed. Next morning was landed with a bill and a head scratch about how to administer the expense…
    Was it @BlancheLivermore?

    His story of collapsing onto the luggage carousel for a bit of shut-eye was 💯
    Guess again! It’s fairly unlikely, who it was…
    Big G
    OGH
    Charles
    Nope!
    Wasn't that one NPxMP??
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    I rather liked one eminent PBer’s very honest account of (briefly) watching hotel porn on a business trip. From memory, he flicked on the ‘free’ six minutes, got bored and went back to his copy of The Times, forgetting to stop the porn feed. Next morning was landed with a bill and a head scratch about how to administer the expense…
    Was it @BlancheLivermore?

    His story of collapsing onto the luggage carousel for a bit of shut-eye was 💯
    Guess again! It’s fairly unlikely, who it was…
    Big G
    OGH
    Charles
    Nope!
    I actually think it was rcs100.
    It was not!
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,359

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    Indeed.

    The hand that rocks the cradle rules the bank.
    When the current regulations on ratios of children to careers were introduced, New lAbour were warned what would happen, in some detail. They went ahead and the prophecies were exactly fulfilled.

    1) "Proper' childcare became very expensive - in London, it's not far off fees for private school. So more and more middle class people have their budgets "stretched" ready to go straight through to the private sector.
    2) If you are rich enough to have a house with a spare room, AuPairs are just as unregulated as before. And just as cheap.
    3) If you aren't in the first 2 categories, you use unregulated child minding. Which is cheap and a bit like mini cabs used to be in London, before they made them legal....
    Dunno about 1.

    I am in that category and the second I could get him out of paid childcare I resolved to piss the money up the wall on good wining and dining instead.
    Ha. What did the wife say?
    She joined me. State schools round here are good so why pay more? 🙂
    There wax a time when I had two under three in childcare that I made no more money in a day that I went to work than I paid out in childcare costs. It was a good nursery but towards the lower end of the price range. Just over £40 per child per day. You'd struggle to get cheaper. I only worked so that I would still have a job once the free childcare hours kicked in when the oldest turned 3 and a bit.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,216

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    Indeed.

    The hand that rocks the cradle rules the bank.
    When the current regulations on ratios of children to careers were introduced, New lAbour were warned what would happen, in some detail. They went ahead and the prophecies were exactly fulfilled.

    1) "Proper' childcare became very expensive - in London, it's not far off fees for private school. So more and more middle class people have their budgets "stretched" ready to go straight through to the private sector.
    2) If you are rich enough to have a house with a spare room, AuPairs are just as unregulated as before. And just as cheap.
    3) If you aren't in the first 2 categories, you use unregulated child minding. Which is cheap and a bit like mini cabs used to be in London, before they made them legal....
    Dunno about 1.

    I am in that category and the second I could get him out of paid childcare I resolved to piss the money up the wall on good wining and dining instead.
    Ha. What did the wife say?
    She joined me. State schools round here are good so why pay more? 🙂
    Depends on your location - some are very good. Some are shocking. The behaviour of parents in choosing which state school to go to (when they have choice) is another interesting story....
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Eurovision Winner

    Ukraine 1.93
    Italy 6
    Sweden 9.4
    England and satellite states 13.5
    Castile and satellite states 22
    50 bar

    I’ve heard the U.K. entry and I’d give it 100. It’s another shocker.
    The quality of the song is irrelevant when it comes to the Yookay. They could put up a timeless classic, performed by musical geniuses, and it would still end up in the bottom quartile. It’s not the song that’s duff, it’s the brand.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,216
    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    Indeed.

    The hand that rocks the cradle rules the bank.
    When the current regulations on ratios of children to careers were introduced, New lAbour were warned what would happen, in some detail. They went ahead and the prophecies were exactly fulfilled.

    1) "Proper' childcare became very expensive - in London, it's not far off fees for private school. So more and more middle class people have their budgets "stretched" ready to go straight through to the private sector.
    2) If you are rich enough to have a house with a spare room, AuPairs are just as unregulated as before. And just as cheap.
    3) If you aren't in the first 2 categories, you use unregulated child minding. Which is cheap and a bit like mini cabs used to be in London, before they made them legal....
    Dunno about 1.

    I am in that category and the second I could get him out of paid childcare I resolved to piss the money up the wall on good wining and dining instead.
    Ha. What did the wife say?
    She joined me. State schools round here are good so why pay more? 🙂
    There wax a time when I had two under three in childcare that I made no more money in a day that I went to work than I paid out in childcare costs. It was a good nursery but towards the lower end of the price range. Just over £40 per child per day. You'd struggle to get cheaper. I only worked so that I would still have a job once the free childcare hours kicked in when the oldest turned 3 and a bit.
    The working-to-stay-in-job-market thing is quite common.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560

    Con Maj lengthening. Now 3.55

    Lol. Boris knocked it out the park again.
    Which would explain why Con Maj is lengthening.
    I was being sarcastic.
    But I guess I shouldn’t assume every poster can remember my leanings; I certainly don’t have an encyclopaedic memory of everyone else’s.
    It's a shame we can't put something in our poster ID e.g. Benpointer - Solid left of centre.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845

    Eurovision Winner

    Ukraine 1.93
    Italy 6
    Sweden 9.4
    England and satellite states 13.5
    Castile and satellite states 22
    50 bar

    I’ve heard the U.K. entry and I’d give it 100. It’s another shocker.
    The quality of the song is irrelevant when it comes to the Yookay. They could put up a timeless classic, performed by musical geniuses, and it would still end up in the bottom quartile. It’s not the song that’s duff, it’s the brand.
    Why do you call it Yookay?

    It’s up there with EUSSR, “Keith”, and “Little ‘Un” in the PB cringe stakes.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,494
    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    As I observed the other day, to some disbelief

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3896030#Comment_3896030

    "Spoke to someone v close to govt last week and they were super worried about govt finances. Forget about lower spending they were seeing a likelihood of cuts. The debt servicing bill is eye watering and unsustainable. That puts the Cons in a difficult place in the run up to any election."

    My first instinct was (and still is) that this is Treasury bollocks to scare backbench MPs and excuse the current tax regime.
    They were very worried. And not sure what would happen when the penny drops amongst the public at large.
    This sounds like probable baloney.

    The traditional point of concern is when Govt Debt Interest is getting towards 4% of GDP.

    As far as I can see, we are under 2%.
    https://obr.uk//docs/dlm_uploads/CCS1021486854-001_OBR-EFO-October-2021_CS_Web-Accessible_v2.pdf

    (Open to correction if anyone has any startling recent or alternate data.)
    And as mentioned to @rcs1000 very sensitive to inflation in itself, on account of its index-linked borrowing, and also the concomitant rate rises.
    That depends what % of borrowing is index linked. Two reasons we were comparatively insulated from the impacts in 2010 and following was that most of our borrowing was a) our high percentage of fixed rate public debt and b) our longer term public debt compared to most other countries (10-15 years vs 5 years) so we did not have to go into the market to roll it over as soon.

    So there was headroom to spread out public finance recovery.

    The % of index-linked is higher now - not sure how much higher.

    If there is an analysis that demonstrates this is a real problem in terms of borrowing costs going to an unacceptable level of GDP *now* I'd like to see it - rather than speculation on possibilities.

    Aha - see max supplied some numbers.
    From your document:

    "Relative to March 2021, interest costs have been revised up by £15.0 billion in 2021- 22, £15.5 billion in 2022-23 and an average of nearly £6 billion a year across the rest of the forecast. Again, this is predominantly due to higher than expected RPI inflation, with the increase in interest costs associated with index-linked gilts accounting for £13.8 billion and £10.3 billion of the increase in 2021-22 and 2022-23 respectively. Higher interest rates also increase debt interest spending across the forecast, while a higher path for Bank Rate reduces the impact of the APF in bringing down interest costs from 2022-23 onwards. "

    That was an October 2021 document. Six months ago. Oh how the world has changed since then.

    Meanwhile 25% of our debt is index linked.
    Without undermining the seriousness of balancing the budget (which I do believe in) index linked isn't really that major of an issue.

    Sure a quarter to a third may be index linked, but if the country is growing in real terms then that should really be read as two thirds to three quarters is not index linked.

    Debt to GDP is the relevant figure, and debt servicing to GDP. Inflation may cost cash, but if the GDP is growing then that should relatively cancel each other out.

    A few decades of inflation is probably what we need now to deflate away the debts we have borrowed. That is basically what succeeded from 45 to 74 approximately.
    £46 billion is the amount spent this year in debt interest payments. It is easy to hide this as 3% of something or other. It is £1000 per year for 40 million people. That's a lot of extra tax to pay, or a lot of universal credit increase that didn't happen. And we have borrowed much more than this figure this year anyway, so we haven't even paid anything, we have just increased the debt.

    That 46bn is before the return of interest from the BoE. Don't forget that a not insubstantial proportion of our debt is held by the BoE.
    People as dim as me need to know where the BoE gets all that money from to return the interest, where they got the money from to fund the government debt in the first place; and I am so dim that I think that if the BoE conjures up the stuff from the air that they are stealing value from someone who does the actual paying. Could that be us by any chance?

  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,116

    Eurovision Winner

    Ukraine 1.93
    Italy 6
    Sweden 9.4
    England and satellite states 13.5
    Castile and satellite states 22
    50 bar

    I’ve heard the U.K. entry and I’d give it 100. It’s another shocker.
    The quality of the song is irrelevant when it comes to the Yookay. They could put up a timeless classic, performed by musical geniuses, and it would still end up in the bottom quartile. It’s not the song that’s duff, it’s the brand.
    That’s one theory, but for the last 20 years we have entered such utter dross it’s almost as if we are trying not to win, in order to avoid hosting. Not unlike the Father Ted plot. For a nation of such dominant pop/rock, we haven’t half chosen some shit to perform awful songs. Other nations have their leading artists in the gig.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    How sure are we the "porn" in the chamber wasn't a NSFW WhatsApp message that flashed up when the MP checked his phone and scrolled through?

    I got (an unexpected) one of those today without any warning.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Con Maj lengthening. Now 3.55

    Lol. Boris knocked it out the park again.
    Which would explain why Con Maj is lengthening.
    I was being sarcastic.
    But I guess I shouldn’t assume every poster can remember my leanings; I certainly don’t have an encyclopaedic memory of everyone else’s.
    It's a shame we can't put something in our poster ID e.g. Benpointer - Solid left of centre.
    HYUFD - General Franco admirer
  • Options

    Northern Ireland Assembly Most Seats - Best prices

    Sinn Féin 1.2
    DUP 5.5
    Alliance 20
    SDLP 42
    UUP 44
    TUV 201

    I would have thought Sinn Fein being the largest party is just about free money TBH. I don't really see how SF gets less than 25 seats and the DUP more than 24 at this point. I would have thought the DUP's recent behaviour would also make Alliance and SDLP voters more likely to transfer to UUP candidates.

    The GreenMachine's prediction yesterday was very interesting, particularly the DUP getting only one seat in North Belfast (potentially the only unionist seat there).
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,839
    edited April 2022
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    A more sensible move would be to make it by mileage rather than by years.

    Does a 7 year old car of reasonable quality really need four annual checks? Probably not. But testing it every 12,000 miles after the first 40,000 would make sense.

    Equally, I can see it would be difficult to enforce compared to a simple date system.
    I would suggest biannually until 10 years old then annually. Modern cars last well compared to the rusty wrecks that I drove in the eighties.
    Yes, that’s the right answer. Modern cars increasingly have 10 year rust warranties, so let the MoT look for tyres and exhausts.

    Biennially though, not biannually.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,306

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    I rather liked one eminent PBer’s very honest account of (briefly) watching hotel porn on a business trip. From memory, he flicked on the ‘free’ six minutes, got bored and went back to his copy of The Times, forgetting to stop the porn feed. Next morning was landed with a bill and a head scratch about how to administer the expense…
    Was it @BlancheLivermore?

    His story of collapsing onto the luggage carousel for a bit of shut-eye was 💯
    Guess again! It’s fairly unlikely, who it was…
    Big G
    OGH
    Charles
    Nope!
    I actually think it was rcs100.
    I remember that story! It was Nick Palmer!
    LOOOOOOOLLL!
    Great story. Reminds me of:
    https://youtu.be/r1pumYgwWoQ
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    How sure are we the "porn" in the chamber wasn't a NSFW WhatsApp message that flashed up when the MP checked his phone and scrolled through?

    I got (an unexpected) one of those today without any warning.
    I must have dull friends.
    Nobody sends me impromptu (or even promptu) porn.
  • Options

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    I rather liked one eminent PBer’s very honest account of (briefly) watching hotel porn on a business trip. From memory, he flicked on the ‘free’ six minutes, got bored and went back to his copy of The Times, forgetting to stop the porn feed. Next morning was landed with a bill and a head scratch about how to administer the expense…
    Was it @BlancheLivermore?

    His story of collapsing onto the luggage carousel for a bit of shut-eye was 💯
    Guess again! It’s fairly unlikely, who it was…
    Big G
    OGH
    Charles
    The number of long haul flights I have done over the last 20 years I am surprised it hasn't happened and more than once !!
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    How sure are we the "porn" in the chamber wasn't a NSFW WhatsApp message that flashed up when the MP checked his phone and scrolled through?

    I got (an unexpected) one of those today without any warning.
    Presumably if that were the case the MP concerned will go straight to the appropriate standards authority and explain the situation, then we can all move on. Assuming the sender wasn't another MP, of course.
  • Options
    RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    edited April 2022

    Eurovision Winner

    Ukraine 1.93
    Italy 6
    Sweden 9.4
    England and satellite states 13.5
    Castile and satellite states 22
    50 bar

    I’ve heard the U.K. entry and I’d give it 100. It’s another shocker.
    The quality of the song is irrelevant when it comes to the Yookay. They could put up a timeless classic, performed by musical geniuses, and it would still end up in the bottom quartile. It’s not the song that’s duff, it’s the brand.
    Not sure that's true on this occasion. The UK has gone with a big TikToker and seems to be gaining traction.

    All the fan club polls on Eurovision related websites have the UK around about 4th or 5th where as usually it's never in the top 10.

    e.g This poll has us in 5th as or stands with just a few countries to come. https://eurovoix.com/2022/04/27/austria-germany-czech-republic-lithuania-ogae-poll-2022/

    Ukraine isn't getting a look in as the song isn't that good, and as it's 50% jury and 50% public vote, the jury might not give it enough of a lead in for the obvious public sympathy vote to allow it to top the leaderboard.

    I'd be tempted to lay Ukraine on the betting but I also don't think the UK will win. We are likely to be in the top 10 for the first time in a long while though.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200

    Eurovision Winner

    Ukraine 1.93
    Italy 6
    Sweden 9.4
    England and satellite states 13.5
    Castile and satellite states 22
    50 bar

    I’ve heard the U.K. entry and I’d give it 100. It’s another shocker.
    The quality of the song is irrelevant when it comes to the Yookay. They could put up a timeless classic, performed by musical geniuses, and it would still end up in the bottom quartile. It’s not the song that’s duff, it’s the brand.
    That’s one theory, but for the last 20 years we have entered such utter dross it’s almost as if we are trying not to win, in order to avoid hosting. Not unlike the Father Ted plot. For a nation of such dominant pop/rock, we haven’t half chosen some shit to perform awful songs. Other nations have their leading artists in the gig.
    We were 5th in 2009.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    Indeed.

    The hand that rocks the cradle rules the bank.
    When the current regulations on ratios of children to careers were introduced, New lAbour were warned what would happen, in some detail. They went ahead and the prophecies were exactly fulfilled.

    1) "Proper' childcare became very expensive - in London, it's not far off fees for private school. So more and more middle class people have their budgets "stretched" ready to go straight through to the private sector.
    2) If you are rich enough to have a house with a spare room, AuPairs are just as unregulated as before. And just as cheap.
    3) If you aren't in the first 2 categories, you use unregulated child minding. Which is cheap and a bit like mini cabs used to be in London, before they made them legal....
    Dunno about 1.

    I am in that category and the second I could get him out of paid childcare I resolved to piss the money up the wall on good wining and dining instead.
    Ha. What did the wife say?
    She joined me. State schools round here are good so why pay more? 🙂
    Depends on your location - some are very good. Some are shocking. The behaviour of parents in choosing which state school to go to (when they have choice) is another interesting story....
    I’d never pretend to believe in a spaghetti monster just to get into a ‘good’ school if that’s what you mean (although how it could be a good school if it teaches that a spaghetti monster rules our lives is another question…)
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    BBC SPOTY 2022

    Fury 11
    Kane 13
    Raducanu 17
    Muirhead 21
    Sterling 21
    Alcroft 26
    O'Sullivan 26
    Joshua 29
    34 bar
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    How sure are we the "porn" in the chamber wasn't a NSFW WhatsApp message that flashed up when the MP checked his phone and scrolled through?

    I got (an unexpected) one of those today without any warning.
    Exactly. I suggested this very possibility earlier. To me, that’s the likely reality. Who exactly would sit in the Commons chamber and watch porn? The whole thing sounds completely barmy.
  • Options

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    How sure are we the "porn" in the chamber wasn't a NSFW WhatsApp message that flashed up when the MP checked his phone and scrolled through?

    I got (an unexpected) one of those today without any warning.
    Exactly. I suggested this very possibility earlier. To me, that’s the likely reality. Who exactly would sit in the Commons chamber and watch porn? The whole thing sounds completely barmy.
    Agree with this - and I despise the Tories
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560

    BBC SPOTY 2022

    Fury 11
    Kane 13
    Raducanu 17
    Muirhead 21
    Sterling 21
    Alcroft 26
    O'Sullivan 26
    Joshua 29
    34 bar

    Is the World Cup before the vote? I think that could have a big influence.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920
    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    As I observed the other day, to some disbelief

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3896030#Comment_3896030

    "Spoke to someone v close to govt last week and they were super worried about govt finances. Forget about lower spending they were seeing a likelihood of cuts. The debt servicing bill is eye watering and unsustainable. That puts the Cons in a difficult place in the run up to any election."

    My first instinct was (and still is) that this is Treasury bollocks to scare backbench MPs and excuse the current tax regime.
    They were very worried. And not sure what would happen when the penny drops amongst the public at large.
    This sounds like probable baloney.

    The traditional point of concern is when Govt Debt Interest is getting towards 4% of GDP.

    As far as I can see, we are under 2%.
    https://obr.uk//docs/dlm_uploads/CCS1021486854-001_OBR-EFO-October-2021_CS_Web-Accessible_v2.pdf

    (Open to correction if anyone has any startling recent or alternate data.)
    And as mentioned to @rcs1000 very sensitive to inflation in itself, on account of its index-linked borrowing, and also the concomitant rate rises.
    That depends what % of borrowing is index linked. Two reasons we were comparatively insulated from the impacts in 2010 and following was that most of our borrowing was a) our high percentage of fixed rate public debt and b) our longer term public debt compared to most other countries (10-15 years vs 5 years) so we did not have to go into the market to roll it over as soon.

    So there was headroom to spread out public finance recovery.

    The % of index-linked is higher now - not sure how much higher.

    If there is an analysis that demonstrates this is a real problem in terms of borrowing costs going to an unacceptable level of GDP *now* I'd like to see it - rather than speculation on possibilities.

    Aha - see max supplied some numbers.
    From your document:

    "Relative to March 2021, interest costs have been revised up by £15.0 billion in 2021- 22, £15.5 billion in 2022-23 and an average of nearly £6 billion a year across the rest of the forecast. Again, this is predominantly due to higher than expected RPI inflation, with the increase in interest costs associated with index-linked gilts accounting for £13.8 billion and £10.3 billion of the increase in 2021-22 and 2022-23 respectively. Higher interest rates also increase debt interest spending across the forecast, while a higher path for Bank Rate reduces the impact of the APF in bringing down interest costs from 2022-23 onwards. "

    That was an October 2021 document. Six months ago. Oh how the world has changed since then.

    Meanwhile 25% of our debt is index linked.
    Without undermining the seriousness of balancing the budget (which I do believe in) index linked isn't really that major of an issue.

    Sure a quarter to a third may be index linked, but if the country is growing in real terms then that should really be read as two thirds to three quarters is not index linked.

    Debt to GDP is the relevant figure, and debt servicing to GDP. Inflation may cost cash, but if the GDP is growing then that should relatively cancel each other out.

    A few decades of inflation is probably what we need now to deflate away the debts we have borrowed. That is basically what succeeded from 45 to 74 approximately.
    £46 billion is the amount spent this year in debt interest payments. It is easy to hide this as 3% of something or other. It is £1000 per year for 40 million people. That's a lot of extra tax to pay, or a lot of universal credit increase that didn't happen. And we have borrowed much more than this figure this year anyway, so we haven't even paid anything, we have just increased the debt.

    That 46bn is before the return of interest from the BoE. Don't forget that a not insubstantial proportion of our debt is held by the BoE.
    People as dim as me need to know where the BoE gets all that money from to return the interest, where they got the money from to fund the government debt in the first place; and I am so dim that I think that if the BoE conjures up the stuff from the air that they are stealing value from someone who does the actual paying. Could that be us by any chance?

    Eh?

    The point is that HMG doesn't really pay interest on bonds held by the Bank of England, as the money is returned to the Treasury. The real debt service load is therefore less than the headline number.
  • Options
    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    I just watched PMQs. I think Starmer is definitely improving.....

    Johnson always blusters but today seemed worse than usual. He answered questions he wasn't asked and sometimes repeated himself as many as three times. I can't imagine those behind him being anything other than alarmed. He was like a talk your weight machine out of control

    Starmer by contrast seemed like the adult in the room. He's definitely being coached. This undramatic but assured manner suits him and if he keeps it going his reviews will start to improve.

    I didn't think Starmer performed well at all today. Johnson was very self assured and shot every fox. Granted, every answer was absolute b*ll*cks, but it was very self-assured absolute b*ll*cks.
    But his audience are MPs and therefore not uniformly stupid. If they were listening to the content it was non existant. Sounding self confident might have worked if he was talikng to a junior school but it was as you suggest just repetitive blustering bollocks. It's a while since I've listened to one
    All MPs want from PMQs is something to cheer (from their leader) and something to get upset by (from the other).
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    How sure are we the "porn" in the chamber wasn't a NSFW WhatsApp message that flashed up when the MP checked his phone and scrolled through?

    I got (an unexpected) one of those today without any warning.
    Exactly. I suggested this very possibility earlier. To me, that’s the likely reality. Who exactly would sit in the Commons chamber and watch porn? The whole thing sounds completely barmy.
    Agree with this - and I despise the Tories
    I hadn’t realised earlier that it was a FRONTBENCHER.

    To be honest, Raab does look like the type.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    BBC SPOTY 2022

    Fury 11
    Kane 13
    Raducanu 17
    Muirhead 21
    Sterling 21
    Alcroft 26
    O'Sullivan 26
    Joshua 29
    34 bar

    Is the World Cup before the vote? I think that could have a big influence.
    WC Final - 18 December
    SPOTY - just before Christmas , 19 Dec last year
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    How sure are we the "porn" in the chamber wasn't a NSFW WhatsApp message that flashed up when the MP checked his phone and scrolled through?

    I got (an unexpected) one of those today without any warning.
    I must have dull friends.
    Nobody sends me impromptu (or even promptu) porn.
    I very rarely get them but very occasionally something NSFW pops up on a group chat. There was one incident where some idiot sent something while I was in a client meeting. Thankfully nobody saw it - but I resolved never to check my phone again in meetings (which is impolite anyway).
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    How sure are we the "porn" in the chamber wasn't a NSFW WhatsApp message that flashed up when the MP checked his phone and scrolled through?

    I got (an unexpected) one of those today without any warning.
    Exactly. I suggested this very possibility earlier. To me, that’s the likely reality. Who exactly would sit in the Commons chamber and watch porn? The whole thing sounds completely barmy.
    Agree with this - and I despise the Tories
    People have done barmier things, but the explanation is probably correct. Unless the witness states/proves the person watched for an extended period I think most people will accept that explanation too.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Just back from the Smarkets event in London - nice to see OGH up and about and in good form.

    A panel featuring Tony Travers, John Rentoul and Anna Turley with the likes of Martin Baxter in the audience so I sat among the Gods (apparently).

    Plenty of psephological semantics around notional vote shares and boundary changes adding a layer of mud to the fairly muddy waters. Couple of interesting observations - Tony Travers felt the Conservatives could win the Croydon Mayoralty but Labour would control the Council.

    John Rentoul thought Labour would win the Tower Hamlets Mayoralty and Wandsworth but not Barnet.

    Anna didn't give a lot away about the north east but the Conservatives are trying in Sunderland and Hartlepool seemed far from clear. Plenty of apathy on the doorsteps though, as she put it, as a Labour canvasser, she "wasn't being chased down the driveways" by angry voters as happened in the Corbyn era.

    Plenty of discussion about the possibility and outcome of a Conservative leadership election. Rentoul thought the Conservative MPs nearly ousted Boris Johnson in January but his position had been strengthened by the downfall of Sunak.

    As we know, the Conservative Parliamentary Party will only move on its leader when two conditions are met - a) the leader has to be a clear electoral liability and b) there is an obvious alternative who would quickly improve the Party's fortunes. I'm far from convinced either condition has been met and even losing 600-800 seats next Thursday will at most satisfy the first.

    My view is while the Conservatives will do poorly, it won't be a complete meltdown and it may be while Labour will be the beneficiaries in some areas, especially in the south it will be the LDs, Greens and Independents who will pick up the anti-Conservative protest vote.

    Did any of the “God’s” say “I always read your pieces on PB for entertainment Stodge - but I read MoonRabbit for racing tips and to better understand what is happening in politics.”

    Nb. 600-800, not happening apparently, Rawling and Thrasher have -400 a disaster for Tories in mail today, on basis so many of these seats that are up are held by Labour on a high mark for them in 2018, so just Labour holds is actually not a bad Labour performance. The NS said a similar thing. In a way it means Boris is lucky, again, as losing 300 the media narrative will be better than expected for Tories, disappointing for Starmer, but the psephological experts won’t be listened to that this isn’t fair or true. Like you I have high hopes for good Libdem night. And it will be interesting watching greens, as con to green the Tory’s will shrug off as mid term government, but Labour to green will be horrible for Labour to explain.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,043
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    A more sensible move would be to make it by mileage rather than by years.

    Does a 7 year old car of reasonable quality really need four annual checks? Probably not. But testing it every 12,000 miles after the first 40,000 would make sense.

    Equally, I can see it would be difficult to enforce compared to a simple date system.
    I would suggest biannually until 10 years old then annually. Modern cars last well compared to the rusty wrecks that I drove in the eighties.
    Yes, that’s the right answer. Modern cars increasingly have 10 year rust warranties, so let the MoT look for tyres and exhausts.

    Biennially though, not biannually.
    At the very least an interim mandatory tyre check, maybe at a tenner a go. I still think the two year idea is folly. Perhaps the frequency reduction less tyre checks could be introduced for electric cars.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200

    BBC SPOTY 2022

    Fury 11
    Kane 13
    Raducanu 17
    Muirhead 21
    Sterling 21
    Alcroft 26
    O'Sullivan 26
    Joshua 29
    34 bar

    Is the World Cup before the vote? I think that could have a big influence.
    I think it's in the Autumn.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    How sure are we the "porn" in the chamber wasn't a NSFW WhatsApp message that flashed up when the MP checked his phone and scrolled through?

    I got (an unexpected) one of those today without any warning.
    Presumably if that were the case the MP concerned will go straight to the appropriate standards authority and explain the situation, then we can all move on. Assuming the sender wasn't another MP, of course.
    Indeed but even if another MP sent it, it’s not the fault of the receiver.
  • Options
    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Eurovision Winner

    Ukraine 1.93
    Italy 6
    Sweden 9.4
    England and satellite states 13.5
    Castile and satellite states 22
    50 bar

    I’ve heard the U.K. entry and I’d give it 100. It’s another shocker.
    The quality of the song is irrelevant when it comes to the Yookay. They could put up a timeless classic, performed by musical geniuses, and it would still end up in the bottom quartile. It’s not the song that’s duff, it’s the brand.
    Why do you call it Yookay?

    It’s up there with EUSSR, “Keith”, and “Little ‘Un” in the PB cringe stakes.
    For the same reason he writes "England and satellite states".
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    How sure are we the "porn" in the chamber wasn't a NSFW WhatsApp message that flashed up when the MP checked his phone and scrolled through?

    I got (an unexpected) one of those today without any warning.
    Exactly. I suggested this very possibility earlier. To me, that’s the likely reality. Who exactly would sit in the Commons chamber and watch porn? The whole thing sounds completely barmy.
    Agree with this - and I despise the Tories
    I hadn’t realised earlier that it was a FRONTBENCHER.

    To be honest, Raab does look like the type.
    Don’t you watch any TV detective shows? 🙄
  • Options
    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Eurovision Winner

    Ukraine 1.93
    Italy 6
    Sweden 9.4
    England and satellite states 13.5
    Castile and satellite states 22
    50 bar

    I’ve heard the U.K. entry and I’d give it 100. It’s another shocker.
    The quality of the song is irrelevant when it comes to the Yookay. They could put up a timeless classic, performed by musical geniuses, and it would still end up in the bottom quartile. It’s not the song that’s duff, it’s the brand.
    That’s one theory, but for the last 20 years we have entered such utter dross it’s almost as if we are trying not to win, in order to avoid hosting. Not unlike the Father Ted plot. For a nation of such dominant pop/rock, we haven’t half chosen some shit to perform awful songs. Other nations have their leading artists in the gig.
    Our leading artists have no interest in competing.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    Indeed.

    The hand that rocks the cradle rules the bank.
    When the current regulations on ratios of children to careers were introduced, New lAbour were warned what would happen, in some detail. They went ahead and the prophecies were exactly fulfilled.

    1) "Proper' childcare became very expensive - in London, it's not far off fees for private school. So more and more middle class people have their budgets "stretched" ready to go straight through to the private sector.
    2) If you are rich enough to have a house with a spare room, AuPairs are just as unregulated as before. And just as cheap.
    3) If you aren't in the first 2 categories, you use unregulated child minding. Which is cheap and a bit like mini cabs used to be in London, before they made them legal....
    Dunno about 1.

    I am in that category and the second I could get him out of paid childcare I resolved to piss the money up the wall on good wining and dining instead.
    Ha. What did the wife say?
    She joined me. State schools round here are good so why pay more? 🙂
    Depends on your location - some are very good. Some are shocking. The behaviour of parents in choosing which state school to go to (when they have choice) is another interesting story....
    I’d never pretend to believe in a spaghetti monster just to get into a ‘good’ school if that’s what you mean (although how it could be a good school if it teaches that a spaghetti monster rules our lives is another question…)
    If the choice in your area was 2 inadequate or requires improvement state schools and an outstanding faith school which needed a vicar's reference to get in I bet you would, especially if you could not afford to go private and there were no grammar schools in the area either.

    Hence churches in catchment areas of outstanding faith schools are often full when admissions for the new intake are coming round

  • Options

    BBC SPOTY 2022

    Fury 11
    Kane 13
    Raducanu 17
    Muirhead 21
    Sterling 21
    Alcroft 26
    O'Sullivan 26
    Joshua 29
    34 bar

    Is the World Cup before the vote? I think that could have a big influence.
    I think it's in the Autumn.
    21st November to 18th December
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902

    Eurovision Winner

    Ukraine 1.93
    Italy 6
    Sweden 9.4
    England and satellite states 13.5
    Castile and satellite states 22
    50 bar

    I’ve heard the U.K. entry and I’d give it 100. It’s another shocker.
    The quality of the song is irrelevant when it comes to the Yookay. They could put up a timeless classic, performed by musical geniuses, and it would still end up in the bottom quartile. It’s not the song that’s duff, it’s the brand.
    Why do you call it Yookay?

    It’s up there with EUSSR, “Keith”, and “Little ‘Un” in the PB cringe stakes.
    But slightly behind

    “It’s a view”

    “feature not a bug”

    and

    “It’s one of those irregular verbs”
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    edited April 2022

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.
    Where did i claim you ran a charity shop, I said MP's should rarely be allowed to run one.
    No. I ran a charity shop. Why can’t I become a MP. Unless I’m rare?
    Well done. Although there are people on here who think you are blue.
    Chapeau.

    Northern Ireland Assembly Most Seats - Best prices

    Sinn Féin 1.2
    DUP 5.5
    Alliance 20
    SDLP 42
    UUP 44
    TUV 201

    I would have thought Sinn Fein being the largest party is just about free money TBH. I don't really see how SF gets less than 25 seats and the DUP more than 24 at this point. I would have thought the DUP's recent behaviour would also make Alliance and SDLP voters more likely to transfer to UUP candidates.

    The GreenMachine's prediction yesterday was very interesting, particularly the DUP getting only one seat in North Belfast (potentially the only unionist seat there).
    DUP have long been the most transfer unfriendly. Even more than SF.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    Applicant said:

    Eurovision Winner

    Ukraine 1.93
    Italy 6
    Sweden 9.4
    England and satellite states 13.5
    Castile and satellite states 22
    50 bar

    I’ve heard the U.K. entry and I’d give it 100. It’s another shocker.
    The quality of the song is irrelevant when it comes to the Yookay. They could put up a timeless classic, performed by musical geniuses, and it would still end up in the bottom quartile. It’s not the song that’s duff, it’s the brand.
    Why do you call it Yookay?

    It’s up there with EUSSR, “Keith”, and “Little ‘Un” in the PB cringe stakes.
    For the same reason he writes "England and satellite states".
    No doubt it makes him laugh.
    Too bad about everyone else.

    I really had to parse that one, “who the fuck is he talking about, the Isle of Man?”
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    edited April 2022

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    How sure are we the "porn" in the chamber wasn't a NSFW WhatsApp message that flashed up when the MP checked his phone and scrolled through?

    I got (an unexpected) one of those today without any warning.
    Exactly. I suggested this very possibility earlier. To me, that’s the likely reality. Who exactly would sit in the Commons chamber and watch porn? The whole thing sounds completely barmy.
    Agree with this - and I despise the Tories
    I hadn’t realised earlier that it was a FRONTBENCHER.

    To be honest, Raab does look like the type.
    Don’t you watch any TV detective shows? 🙄
    Don’t get it. Please explain.
    My point is that Raab looks sexually dodgy.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,216

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    A more sensible move would be to make it by mileage rather than by years.

    Does a 7 year old car of reasonable quality really need four annual checks? Probably not. But testing it every 12,000 miles after the first 40,000 would make sense.

    Equally, I can see it would be difficult to enforce compared to a simple date system.
    I would suggest biannually until 10 years old then annually. Modern cars last well compared to the rusty wrecks that I drove in the eighties.
    Yes, that’s the right answer. Modern cars increasingly have 10 year rust warranties, so let the MoT look for tyres and exhausts.

    Biennially though, not biannually.
    At the very least an interim mandatory tyre check, maybe at a tenner a go. I still think the two year idea is folly. Perhaps the frequency reduction less tyre checks could be introduced for electric cars.
    A few years back, I was talking with a chap who had come up with a sensor system that could detect tire state - tread depth and general state. I wonder what happened to it.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,920
    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    Robert, I can one up you there. Was at an international conference in 2007 for officials from all MENA countries, hosted by one of the region's Princesses, when one of the delegates plugged his laptop into the overhead projection system without first opening it to check ...
    Oh my...
  • Options
    algarkirk said:

    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    As I observed the other day, to some disbelief

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3896030#Comment_3896030

    "Spoke to someone v close to govt last week and they were super worried about govt finances. Forget about lower spending they were seeing a likelihood of cuts. The debt servicing bill is eye watering and unsustainable. That puts the Cons in a difficult place in the run up to any election."

    My first instinct was (and still is) that this is Treasury bollocks to scare backbench MPs and excuse the current tax regime.
    They were very worried. And not sure what would happen when the penny drops amongst the public at large.
    This sounds like probable baloney.

    The traditional point of concern is when Govt Debt Interest is getting towards 4% of GDP.

    As far as I can see, we are under 2%.
    https://obr.uk//docs/dlm_uploads/CCS1021486854-001_OBR-EFO-October-2021_CS_Web-Accessible_v2.pdf

    (Open to correction if anyone has any startling recent or alternate data.)
    And as mentioned to @rcs1000 very sensitive to inflation in itself, on account of its index-linked borrowing, and also the concomitant rate rises.
    That depends what % of borrowing is index linked. Two reasons we were comparatively insulated from the impacts in 2010 and following was that most of our borrowing was a) our high percentage of fixed rate public debt and b) our longer term public debt compared to most other countries (10-15 years vs 5 years) so we did not have to go into the market to roll it over as soon.

    So there was headroom to spread out public finance recovery.

    The % of index-linked is higher now - not sure how much higher.

    If there is an analysis that demonstrates this is a real problem in terms of borrowing costs going to an unacceptable level of GDP *now* I'd like to see it - rather than speculation on possibilities.

    Aha - see max supplied some numbers.
    From your document:

    "Relative to March 2021, interest costs have been revised up by £15.0 billion in 2021- 22, £15.5 billion in 2022-23 and an average of nearly £6 billion a year across the rest of the forecast. Again, this is predominantly due to higher than expected RPI inflation, with the increase in interest costs associated with index-linked gilts accounting for £13.8 billion and £10.3 billion of the increase in 2021-22 and 2022-23 respectively. Higher interest rates also increase debt interest spending across the forecast, while a higher path for Bank Rate reduces the impact of the APF in bringing down interest costs from 2022-23 onwards. "

    That was an October 2021 document. Six months ago. Oh how the world has changed since then.

    Meanwhile 25% of our debt is index linked.
    Without undermining the seriousness of balancing the budget (which I do believe in) index linked isn't really that major of an issue.

    Sure a quarter to a third may be index linked, but if the country is growing in real terms then that should really be read as two thirds to three quarters is not index linked.

    Debt to GDP is the relevant figure, and debt servicing to GDP. Inflation may cost cash, but if the GDP is growing then that should relatively cancel each other out.

    A few decades of inflation is probably what we need now to deflate away the debts we have borrowed. That is basically what succeeded from 45 to 74 approximately.
    £46 billion is the amount spent this year in debt interest payments. It is easy to hide this as 3% of something or other. It is £1000 per year for 40 million people. That's a lot of extra tax to pay, or a lot of universal credit increase that didn't happen. And we have borrowed much more than this figure this year anyway, so we haven't even paid anything, we have just increased the debt.

    I 100% agree with that but that has to do with the pernicious consequences of debt - it is nothing to do with inflation.

    Debt leads to debt payments which is dead money and that is bad, it is a tax on the future and what's worse is it is taking the future taxes of the young in order to pay for the present and avoid paying for it now. So don't take this as defending debt.

    But index-linked is a different matter. Overly simplifying it but if inflation is 5% then 100% index-linked £46bn this year might be £48.3bn next year so we're talking an increase of £2bn in interest payments which sounds staggering . . . however £48.3bn next year is £46bn in real money, so its not a real change.

    We should be controlling the deficit because its wrong to burden our children with our own costs, a principle that the prior generation to mine never seemed to understand . . . but inflation is a side show to that.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624

    Eurovision Winner

    Ukraine 1.93
    Italy 6
    Sweden 9.4
    England and satellite states 13.5
    Castile and satellite states 22
    50 bar

    I’ve heard the U.K. entry and I’d give it 100. It’s another shocker.
    The quality of the song is irrelevant when it comes to the Yookay. They could put up a timeless classic, performed by musical geniuses, and it would still end up in the bottom quartile. It’s not the song that’s duff, it’s the brand.
    Why do you call it Yookay?

    It’s up there with EUSSR, “Keith”, and “Little ‘Un” in the PB cringe stakes.
    But slightly behind

    “It’s a view”

    “feature not a bug”

    and

    “It’s one of those irregular verbs”
    Those are just cliches, not attempts at partisan hilarity like EUSSR, it's not the same thing.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560

    BBC SPOTY 2022

    Fury 11
    Kane 13
    Raducanu 17
    Muirhead 21
    Sterling 21
    Alcroft 26
    O'Sullivan 26
    Joshua 29
    34 bar

    Is the World Cup before the vote? I think that could have a big influence.
    I think it's in the Autumn.
    So different times for different people then?
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    edited April 2022

    Eurovision Winner

    Ukraine 1.93
    Italy 6
    Sweden 9.4
    England and satellite states 13.5
    Castile and satellite states 22
    50 bar

    I’ve heard the U.K. entry and I’d give it 100. It’s another shocker.
    The quality of the song is irrelevant when it comes to the Yookay. They could put up a timeless classic, performed by musical geniuses, and it would still end up in the bottom quartile. It’s not the song that’s duff, it’s the brand.
    Why do you call it Yookay?

    It’s up there with EUSSR, “Keith”, and “Little ‘Un” in the PB cringe stakes.
    But slightly behind

    “It’s a view”

    “feature not a bug”

    and

    “It’s one of those irregular verbs”
    These have mostly died out.

    I feel like it’s time to bring “unspoofable” back, though.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,045
    Putin has apparently warned against 'outside intervention' in Ukraine. The main outside intervention coming so far from er... Russia, with it raising towns and cities to the ground and committing mass war crimes.

    I know this is all obvious but such comments are liable to be treated with the utmost seriousness.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902
    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    Indeed.

    The hand that rocks the cradle rules the bank.
    When the current regulations on ratios of children to careers were introduced, New lAbour were warned what would happen, in some detail. They went ahead and the prophecies were exactly fulfilled.

    1) "Proper' childcare became very expensive - in London, it's not far off fees for private school. So more and more middle class people have their budgets "stretched" ready to go straight through to the private sector.
    2) If you are rich enough to have a house with a spare room, AuPairs are just as unregulated as before. And just as cheap.
    3) If you aren't in the first 2 categories, you use unregulated child minding. Which is cheap and a bit like mini cabs used to be in London, before they made them legal....
    Dunno about 1.

    I am in that category and the second I could get him out of paid childcare I resolved to piss the money up the wall on good wining and dining instead.
    Ha. What did the wife say?
    She joined me. State schools round here are good so why pay more? 🙂
    Depends on your location - some are very good. Some are shocking. The behaviour of parents in choosing which state school to go to (when they have choice) is another interesting story....
    I’d never pretend to believe in a spaghetti monster just to get into a ‘good’ school if that’s what you mean (although how it could be a good school if it teaches that a spaghetti monster rules our lives is another question…)
    If the choice in your area was 2 inadequate or requires improvement state schools and an outstanding faith school which needed a vicar's reference to get in I bet you would, especially if you could not afford to go private and there were no grammar schools in the area either.

    Hence churches in catchment areas of outstanding faith schools are often full when admissions for the new intake are coming round

    I wouldn’t. I’d move.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    Who the heck sends anyone porn?
    I have never felt the urge to send any. Nor have I ever received any.
    Maybe that's just me.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,216

    Putin has apparently warned against 'outside intervention' in Ukraine. The main outside intervention coming so far from er... Russia, with it raising towns and cities to the ground and committing mass war crimes.

    I know this is all obvious but such comments are liable to be treated with the utmost seriousness.

    In PutinWorld, Ukraine doesn't exist. There's a province of West Russia where they talk a bit funny, that's all. So Russia is just doing an Internal Special Operation.

    It's a fairly good "tell" of Russians who support this stuff - they will tell you there is no such thing as a Ukrainian language, culture etc..
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200

    BBC SPOTY 2022

    Fury 11
    Kane 13
    Raducanu 17
    Muirhead 21
    Sterling 21
    Alcroft 26
    O'Sullivan 26
    Joshua 29
    34 bar

    Is the World Cup before the vote? I think that could have a big influence.
    I think it's in the Autumn.
    So different times for different people then?
    November is Autumn :)
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902

    Eurovision Winner

    Ukraine 1.93
    Italy 6
    Sweden 9.4
    England and satellite states 13.5
    Castile and satellite states 22
    50 bar

    I’ve heard the U.K. entry and I’d give it 100. It’s another shocker.
    The quality of the song is irrelevant when it comes to the Yookay. They could put up a timeless classic, performed by musical geniuses, and it would still end up in the bottom quartile. It’s not the song that’s duff, it’s the brand.
    Why do you call it Yookay?

    It’s up there with EUSSR, “Keith”, and “Little ‘Un” in the PB cringe stakes.
    But slightly behind

    “It’s a view”

    “feature not a bug”

    and

    “It’s one of those irregular verbs”
    These have mostly died out.

    I feel like it’s time to bring “unspoofable” back, though.
    “Colour me x” is another one that has gently faded away. Although I did witness the irregular verbs make a cameo today.

    Agreed that “unspoofable” and “beyond parody” are ripe for revival.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,043

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    A more sensible move would be to make it by mileage rather than by years.

    Does a 7 year old car of reasonable quality really need four annual checks? Probably not. But testing it every 12,000 miles after the first 40,000 would make sense.

    Equally, I can see it would be difficult to enforce compared to a simple date system.
    I would suggest biannually until 10 years old then annually. Modern cars last well compared to the rusty wrecks that I drove in the eighties.
    Yes, that’s the right answer. Modern cars increasingly have 10 year rust warranties, so let the MoT look for tyres and exhausts.

    Biennially though, not biannually.
    At the very least an interim mandatory tyre check, maybe at a tenner a go. I still think the two year idea is folly. Perhaps the frequency reduction less tyre checks could be introduced for electric cars.
    A few years back, I was talking with a chap who had come up with a sensor system that could detect tire state - tread depth and general state. I wonder what happened to it.
    Good idea, but it won't be retrofitted on a 2004 Corsa, which worries me.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902

    BBC SPOTY 2022

    Fury 11
    Kane 13
    Raducanu 17
    Muirhead 21
    Sterling 21
    Alcroft 26
    O'Sullivan 26
    Joshua 29
    34 bar

    Is the World Cup before the vote? I think that could have a big influence.
    I think it's in the Autumn.
    So different times for different people then?
    Easter to some, Diwali for others. Who’s counting?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,306

    Eurovision Winner

    Ukraine 1.93
    Italy 6
    Sweden 9.4
    England and satellite states 13.5
    Castile and satellite states 22
    50 bar

    I’ve heard the U.K. entry and I’d give it 100. It’s another shocker.
    The quality of the song is irrelevant when it comes to the Yookay. They could put up a timeless classic, performed by musical geniuses, and it would still end up in the bottom quartile. It’s not the song that’s duff, it’s the brand.
    Why do you call it Yookay?

    It’s up there with EUSSR, “Keith”, and “Little ‘Un” in the PB cringe stakes.
    But slightly behind

    “It’s a view”

    “feature not a bug”

    and

    “It’s one of those irregular verbs”
    These have mostly died out.

    I feel like it’s time to bring “unspoofable” back, though.
    I think those are used perennially.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,116
    Applicant said:

    Eurovision Winner

    Ukraine 1.93
    Italy 6
    Sweden 9.4
    England and satellite states 13.5
    Castile and satellite states 22
    50 bar

    I’ve heard the U.K. entry and I’d give it 100. It’s another shocker.
    The quality of the song is irrelevant when it comes to the Yookay. They could put up a timeless classic, performed by musical geniuses, and it would still end up in the bottom quartile. It’s not the song that’s duff, it’s the brand.
    That’s one theory, but for the last 20 years we have entered such utter dross it’s almost as if we are trying not to win, in order to avoid hosting. Not unlike the Father Ted plot. For a nation of such dominant pop/rock, we haven’t half chosen some shit to perform awful songs. Other nations have their leading artists in the gig.
    Our leading artists have no interest in competing.
    Is that true? Or are we not paying enough?
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,494
    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    As I observed the other day, to some disbelief

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3896030#Comment_3896030

    "Spoke to someone v close to govt last week and they were super worried about govt finances. Forget about lower spending they were seeing a likelihood of cuts. The debt servicing bill is eye watering and unsustainable. That puts the Cons in a difficult place in the run up to any election."

    My first instinct was (and still is) that this is Treasury bollocks to scare backbench MPs and excuse the current tax regime.
    They were very worried. And not sure what would happen when the penny drops amongst the public at large.
    This sounds like probable baloney.

    The traditional point of concern is when Govt Debt Interest is getting towards 4% of GDP.

    As far as I can see, we are under 2%.
    https://obr.uk//docs/dlm_uploads/CCS1021486854-001_OBR-EFO-October-2021_CS_Web-Accessible_v2.pdf

    (Open to correction if anyone has any startling recent or alternate data.)
    And as mentioned to @rcs1000 very sensitive to inflation in itself, on account of its index-linked borrowing, and also the concomitant rate rises.
    That depends what % of borrowing is index linked. Two reasons we were comparatively insulated from the impacts in 2010 and following was that most of our borrowing was a) our high percentage of fixed rate public debt and b) our longer term public debt compared to most other countries (10-15 years vs 5 years) so we did not have to go into the market to roll it over as soon.

    So there was headroom to spread out public finance recovery.

    The % of index-linked is higher now - not sure how much higher.

    If there is an analysis that demonstrates this is a real problem in terms of borrowing costs going to an unacceptable level of GDP *now* I'd like to see it - rather than speculation on possibilities.

    Aha - see max supplied some numbers.
    From your document:

    "Relative to March 2021, interest costs have been revised up by £15.0 billion in 2021- 22, £15.5 billion in 2022-23 and an average of nearly £6 billion a year across the rest of the forecast. Again, this is predominantly due to higher than expected RPI inflation, with the increase in interest costs associated with index-linked gilts accounting for £13.8 billion and £10.3 billion of the increase in 2021-22 and 2022-23 respectively. Higher interest rates also increase debt interest spending across the forecast, while a higher path for Bank Rate reduces the impact of the APF in bringing down interest costs from 2022-23 onwards. "

    That was an October 2021 document. Six months ago. Oh how the world has changed since then.

    Meanwhile 25% of our debt is index linked.
    Without undermining the seriousness of balancing the budget (which I do believe in) index linked isn't really that major of an issue.

    Sure a quarter to a third may be index linked, but if the country is growing in real terms then that should really be read as two thirds to three quarters is not index linked.

    Debt to GDP is the relevant figure, and debt servicing to GDP. Inflation may cost cash, but if the GDP is growing then that should relatively cancel each other out.

    A few decades of inflation is probably what we need now to deflate away the debts we have borrowed. That is basically what succeeded from 45 to 74 approximately.
    £46 billion is the amount spent this year in debt interest payments. It is easy to hide this as 3% of something or other. It is £1000 per year for 40 million people. That's a lot of extra tax to pay, or a lot of universal credit increase that didn't happen. And we have borrowed much more than this figure this year anyway, so we haven't even paid anything, we have just increased the debt.

    That 46bn is before the return of interest from the BoE. Don't forget that a not insubstantial proportion of our debt is held by the BoE.
    People as dim as me need to know where the BoE gets all that money from to return the interest, where they got the money from to fund the government debt in the first place; and I am so dim that I think that if the BoE conjures up the stuff from the air that they are stealing value from someone who does the actual paying. Could that be us by any chance?

    Eh?

    The point is that HMG doesn't really pay interest on bonds held by the Bank of England, as the money is returned to the Treasury. The real debt service load is therefore less than the headline number.
    Just pop that into the language of dim people like me.....

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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,247
    edited April 2022
    The case of the conservative minister alleged viewing of pornography has been referred to the ICGS by the conservative chief whip
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    rcs1000 said:

    The person who runs this account claims to be an ex-spook who’s now an ‘ethical leaker’. Certainly very anti the current government. Also claims to have contacts in No. 10.

    How true all that is, I don’t know. But I have my doubts.

    But, if this turns out to be accurate, maybe I’ll have to accept they are who they say they are:


    The idea that Raab, or indeed anyone, would deliberately watch pornography in the Commons chamber simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Why would anyone do that?

    What might have happened is someone texted/WhatsApped something NSFW and they opened the message before realising what it was.
    I was on a plane once, and a gentleman a few rows ahead of me got his laptop out.

    As he opened it, it came out of sleep mode, and continued playing the video be had been watching in his hotel room the previous evening. Unfortunately for him, the volume was loud, and the panting and moaning was heard by the entire plane.

    He slammed the laptop shut and went a very bright red.
    How sure are we the "porn" in the chamber wasn't a NSFW WhatsApp message that flashed up when the MP checked his phone and scrolled through?

    I got (an unexpected) one of those today without any warning.
    Exactly. I suggested this very possibility earlier. To me, that’s the likely reality. Who exactly would sit in the Commons chamber and watch porn? The whole thing sounds completely barmy.
    Agree with this - and I despise the Tories
    I hadn’t realised earlier that it was a FRONTBENCHER.

    To be honest, Raab does look like the type.
    Don’t you watch any TV detective shows? 🙄
    Don’t get it. Please explain.
    My point is that Raab looks sexually dodgy.
    Well it’s never the obvious one is it? Judge Dredd Gardenwalker.
This discussion has been closed.