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Ipsos: 57% say MPs should be able to accuse each other of lying – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,066

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    Indeed.

    The hand that rocks the cradle rules the bank.
    When the current regulations on ratios of children to careers were introduced, New lAbour were warned what would happen, in some detail. They went ahead and the prophecies were exactly fulfilled.

    1) "Proper' childcare became very expensive - in London, it's not far off fees for private school. So more and more middle class people have their budgets "stretched" ready to go straight through to the private sector.
    2) If you are rich enough to have a house with a spare room, AuPairs are just as unregulated as before. And just as cheap.
    3) If you aren't in the first 2 categories, you use unregulated child minding. Which is cheap and a bit like mini cabs used to be in London, before they made them legal....
    Dunno about 1.

    I am in that category and the second I could get him out of paid childcare I resolved to piss the money up the wall on good wining and dining instead.
    Ha. What did the wife say?
    She joined me. State schools round here are good so why pay more? 🙂
    Depends on your location - some are very good. Some are shocking. The behaviour of parents in choosing which state school to go to (when they have choice) is another interesting story....
    I’d never pretend to believe in a spaghetti monster just to get into a ‘good’ school if that’s what you mean (although how it could be a good school if it teaches that a spaghetti monster rules our lives is another question…)
    If the choice in your area was 2 inadequate or requires improvement state schools and an outstanding faith school which needed a vicar's reference to get in I bet you would, especially if you could not afford to go private and there were no grammar schools in the area either.

    Hence churches in catchment areas of outstanding faith schools are often full when admissions for the new intake are coming round

    Easy. Close down the subsidised sectarian school and improve the two comprehensives with the resources.

    You want faith schooling? You pay for it out of your own pocket, not mine and everyone else's. This not very well hidden state subsidy of sectarianism is one of the biggest arguments for eradicating Establishment of a sect in (one of the nations of) the UK.
    Typical attitude of you and the useless left, close down anything doing well so everything ends up crap. The end result would be 3 inadequate or requires improvement schools with no parental choice.

    We need more faith schools, more grammar schools, more free schools and more choice not less. If parents want to send their children to schools with those of the same faith as their own they should be allowed to do so. Of course outstanding Roman Catholic schools are just as selective as outstanding Church of England schools
    If parents want to send their children to schools with those of the same faith as their own, and are willing to pay for that, then that should be their choice.

    The taxpayer shouldn't be paying for sectarian discrimination.
    My main beef with faith schools is that I don't get the option of an atheist school for my kids. As far as I can see, most nominally secular schools also teach God. I think there is still a requirement for a collective act of worship.
    And if you live in the countryside, from what I can see pretty much all schools are CofE. Country dwellers don't appear to get a choice.
    If we're to allow faith schools, we should also allow faithless schools.
    You do, you could now set up an atheist free school if you wanted to.

    Plus parents can withdraw their children from faith assemblies if they wish
    Would it be possible to establish a satanist free school?
    Not free, one soul signed away before you're through the school gates.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,694
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    Indeed.

    The hand that rocks the cradle rules the bank.
    When the current regulations on ratios of children to careers were introduced, New lAbour were warned what would happen, in some detail. They went ahead and the prophecies were exactly fulfilled.

    1) "Proper' childcare became very expensive - in London, it's not far off fees for private school. So more and more middle class people have their budgets "stretched" ready to go straight through to the private sector.
    2) If you are rich enough to have a house with a spare room, AuPairs are just as unregulated as before. And just as cheap.
    3) If you aren't in the first 2 categories, you use unregulated child minding. Which is cheap and a bit like mini cabs used to be in London, before they made them legal....
    Dunno about 1.

    I am in that category and the second I could get him out of paid childcare I resolved to piss the money up the wall on good wining and dining instead.
    Ha. What did the wife say?
    She joined me. State schools round here are good so why pay more? 🙂
    Depends on your location - some are very good. Some are shocking. The behaviour of parents in choosing which state school to go to (when they have choice) is another interesting story....
    I’d never pretend to believe in a spaghetti monster just to get into a ‘good’ school if that’s what you mean (although how it could be a good school if it teaches that a spaghetti monster rules our lives is another question…)
    If the choice in your area was 2 inadequate or requires improvement state schools and an outstanding faith school which needed a vicar's reference to get in I bet you would, especially if you could not afford to go private and there were no grammar schools in the area either.

    Hence churches in catchment areas of outstanding faith schools are often full when admissions for the new intake are coming round

    Easy. Close down the subsidised sectarian school and improve the two comprehensives with the resources.

    You want faith schooling? You pay for it out of your own pocket, not mine and everyone else's. This not very well hidden state subsidy of sectarianism is one of the biggest arguments for eradicating Establishment of a sect in (one of the nations of) the UK.
    Typical attitude of you and the useless left, close down anything doing well so everything ends up crap. The end result would be 3 inadequate or requires improvement schools with no parental choice.

    We need more faith schools, more grammar schools, more free schools and more choice not less. If parents want to send their children to schools with those of the same faith as their own they should be allowed to do so. Of course outstanding Roman Catholic schools are just as selective as outstanding Church of England schools
    If parents want to send their children to schools with those of the same faith as their own, and are willing to pay for that, then that should be their choice.

    The taxpayer shouldn't be paying for sectarian discrimination.
    My main beef with faith schools is that I don't get the option of an atheist school for my kids. As far as I can see, most nominally secular schools also teach God. I think there is still a requirement for a collective act of worship.
    And if you live in the countryside, from what I can see pretty much all schools are CofE. Country dwellers don't appear to get a choice.
    If we're to allow faith schools, we should also allow faithless schools.
    You do, you could now set up an atheist free school if you wanted to.

    Plus parents can withdraw their children from faith assemblies if they wish
    Would it be possible to establish a satanist free school?
    Yes, provided it was not doing anything illegal and got good results
    You do realise, we need to cut public spending, or at least any good Conservatice thinks so.

    Make people selfreliant. Give them choice. Free them from the state.

    I have a great idea - make all schools sectarian, far greater efficiency, no need to spend money and timetable time on RI, parents have total choice on the religious bit, lots of private enterprise opportunity for small firms to provide the religious stuff, etc.

    And what do you do? you dribble all over the idea like an enraged sea cucumber.

    You're a subsidy junkie like someting from the 1960s, complete with flared trousers.

    Tories aren't what they used to be.
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,386
    Off Topic
    Just noticed the government's policy on moving people from hospital to care homes without testing has been declared unlawful. A lot of harrowing personal stories. I honestly don't know how the ministers in this government sleep at night.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,203
    dixiedean said:

    Who the heck sends anyone porn?
    I have never felt the urge to send any. Nor have I ever received any.
    Maybe that's just me.

    Neither have I.

    I've had to investigate its possession and use often enough, though. There is a great deal of atrocious criminal activity associated with it. Those who use it are like those using hard drugs - in part responsible for the criminal activity which underpins what they consume. A revolting industry - if it can be called that.

    I know I will be accused of being a prude but it is the jokey oh this is all normal approach to it which allows far too many to avoid realising the brutal and squalid reality behind it. And, frankly, the way it warps the minds of those using it.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,694

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    Indeed.

    The hand that rocks the cradle rules the bank.
    When the current regulations on ratios of children to careers were introduced, New lAbour were warned what would happen, in some detail. They went ahead and the prophecies were exactly fulfilled.

    1) "Proper' childcare became very expensive - in London, it's not far off fees for private school. So more and more middle class people have their budgets "stretched" ready to go straight through to the private sector.
    2) If you are rich enough to have a house with a spare room, AuPairs are just as unregulated as before. And just as cheap.
    3) If you aren't in the first 2 categories, you use unregulated child minding. Which is cheap and a bit like mini cabs used to be in London, before they made them legal....
    Dunno about 1.

    I am in that category and the second I could get him out of paid childcare I resolved to piss the money up the wall on good wining and dining instead.
    Ha. What did the wife say?
    She joined me. State schools round here are good so why pay more? 🙂
    Depends on your location - some are very good. Some are shocking. The behaviour of parents in choosing which state school to go to (when they have choice) is another interesting story....
    I’d never pretend to believe in a spaghetti monster just to get into a ‘good’ school if that’s what you mean (although how it could be a good school if it teaches that a spaghetti monster rules our lives is another question…)
    If the choice in your area was 2 inadequate or requires improvement state schools and an outstanding faith school which needed a vicar's reference to get in I bet you would, especially if you could not afford to go private and there were no grammar schools in the area either.

    Hence churches in catchment areas of outstanding faith schools are often full when admissions for the new intake are coming round

    Easy. Close down the subsidised sectarian school and improve the two comprehensives with the resources.

    You want faith schooling? You pay for it out of your own pocket, not mine and everyone else's. This not very well hidden state subsidy of sectarianism is one of the biggest arguments for eradicating Establishment of a sect in (one of the nations of) the UK.
    Judging by the Glasgow Rangers supporting pupils, we have plenty of sectarian schools in Ayrshire, funded by the state.
    Only too well aware of it. Though in that case it is perhaps more an absence of the other side. Also funded by the state.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    On mobileporngate, it seems to me relevant that the accused is a Tory MP, and the complainant and her corroborator are also both Tory MPs. Surely they must be pretty sure of their ground to go public (within their own party) against one of their own? It's obvious that it's not party politics being played out here.

    Read the room. The good men of PB have decided this poor Tory MP caught watching porn was the innocent victim of a harmless bit of banter from one of his many friends, who sent him a sexually explicit meme that's easy for the simple-minded women now allowed into the chamber to confuse with real porn. And that's okay!
    Well I just suggested the possibility that it was a WhatsApp group text - purely because I find it completely outlandish/bonkers/barmy that anyone would think of deliberately watching porn in the Commons chamber.

    Maybe I am just naive!!
    The psychology is power and risk. There are people who do things to assert dominance, and because they can, but also get a thrill from the danger.

    They're awful... but that's how it works.
    Like going down on someone whose driving 110mph up a motorway. 😈
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Has she dyed her hair?



    This morning it was aeroplanes, tonight it's "She said Britain and its allies must 'keep going further and faster to push Russia out of the whole of Ukraine'." Says the Daily Mail. Contemptible self-publicising.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    Indeed.

    The hand that rocks the cradle rules the bank.
    When the current regulations on ratios of children to careers were introduced, New lAbour were warned what would happen, in some detail. They went ahead and the prophecies were exactly fulfilled.

    1) "Proper' childcare became very expensive - in London, it's not far off fees for private school. So more and more middle class people have their budgets "stretched" ready to go straight through to the private sector.
    2) If you are rich enough to have a house with a spare room, AuPairs are just as unregulated as before. And just as cheap.
    3) If you aren't in the first 2 categories, you use unregulated child minding. Which is cheap and a bit like mini cabs used to be in London, before they made them legal....
    Dunno about 1.

    I am in that category and the second I could get him out of paid childcare I resolved to piss the money up the wall on good wining and dining instead.
    Ha. What did the wife say?
    She joined me. State schools round here are good so why pay more? 🙂
    Depends on your location - some are very good. Some are shocking. The behaviour of parents in choosing which state school to go to (when they have choice) is another interesting story....
    I’d never pretend to believe in a spaghetti monster just to get into a ‘good’ school if that’s what you mean (although how it could be a good school if it teaches that a spaghetti monster rules our lives is another question…)
    If the choice in your area was 2 inadequate or requires improvement state schools and an outstanding faith school which needed a vicar's reference to get in I bet you would, especially if you could not afford to go private and there were no grammar schools in the area either.

    Hence churches in catchment areas of outstanding faith schools are often full when admissions for the new intake are coming round

    Easy. Close down the subsidised sectarian school and improve the two comprehensives with the resources.

    You want faith schooling? You pay for it out of your own pocket, not mine and everyone else's. This not very well hidden state subsidy of sectarianism is one of the biggest arguments for eradicating Establishment of a sect in (one of the nations of) the UK.
    Typical attitude of you and the useless left, close down anything doing well so everything ends up crap. The end result would be 3 inadequate or requires improvement schools with no parental choice.

    We need more faith schools, more grammar schools, more free schools and more choice not less. If parents want to send their children to state schools with those of the same faith as their own they should be allowed to do so. Of course outstanding Roman Catholic schools are just as selective as outstanding Church of England schools
    I'm not a leftie, but of course you think that Genghis Khan was a parlour pinko anyway.

    Have you not considered that

    (a) it is an outrage for public money to be spent on your pet sectarian stuff
    (b) it is people like your spending public resources on your pet sectarian schools that cause major efficiency and fairness issues?
    (c) it is people like you taking no interest in the non-faith or non-posh schools that causes a major part of the problem with state education>
    Yes you are, you are a died in the wool pinko socialist, near Communist Scottish nationalist.

    No, it is not an outrage for public money to be spent on outstanding faith schools producing highly educated pupils to benefit all of us. I am a conservative with an ideological commitment to choice in education as much as the economy, so no I actually think it improves efficiency.

    I don't believe in lowest common denominator education, the more private schools, grammar schools and free and faith schools the better as far as I am concerned
    Outrageous. Dyed in the wool pinko socialist, surely? If he'd died in the wool, that would be serious.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    edited April 2022
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    Indeed.

    The hand that rocks the cradle rules the bank.
    When the current regulations on ratios of children to careers were introduced, New lAbour were warned what would happen, in some detail. They went ahead and the prophecies were exactly fulfilled.

    1) "Proper' childcare became very expensive - in London, it's not far off fees for private school. So more and more middle class people have their budgets "stretched" ready to go straight through to the private sector.
    2) If you are rich enough to have a house with a spare room, AuPairs are just as unregulated as before. And just as cheap.
    3) If you aren't in the first 2 categories, you use unregulated child minding. Which is cheap and a bit like mini cabs used to be in London, before they made them legal....
    Dunno about 1.

    I am in that category and the second I could get him out of paid childcare I resolved to piss the money up the wall on good wining and dining instead.
    Ha. What did the wife say?
    She joined me. State schools round here are good so why pay more? 🙂
    Depends on your location - some are very good. Some are shocking. The behaviour of parents in choosing which state school to go to (when they have choice) is another interesting story....
    I’d never pretend to believe in a spaghetti monster just to get into a ‘good’ school if that’s what you mean (although how it could be a good school if it teaches that a spaghetti monster rules our lives is another question…)
    If the choice in your area was 2 inadequate or requires improvement state schools and an outstanding faith school which needed a vicar's reference to get in I bet you would, especially if you could not afford to go private and there were no grammar schools in the area either.

    Hence churches in catchment areas of outstanding faith schools are often full when admissions for the new intake are coming round

    Easy. Close down the subsidised sectarian school and improve the two comprehensives with the resources.

    You want faith schooling? You pay for it out of your own pocket, not mine and everyone else's. This not very well hidden state subsidy of sectarianism is one of the biggest arguments for eradicating Establishment of a sect in (one of the nations of) the UK.
    Typical attitude of you and the useless left, close down anything doing well so everything ends up crap. The end result would be 3 inadequate or requires improvement schools with no parental choice.

    We need more faith schools, more grammar schools, more free schools and more choice not less. If parents want to send their children to schools with those of the same faith as their own they should be allowed to do so. Of course outstanding Roman Catholic schools are just as selective as outstanding Church of England schools
    If parents want to send their children to schools with those of the same faith as their own, and are willing to pay for that, then that should be their choice.

    The taxpayer shouldn't be paying for sectarian discrimination.
    My main beef with faith schools is that I don't get the option of an atheist school for my kids. As far as I can see, most nominally secular schools also teach God. I think there is still a requirement for a collective act of worship.
    And if you live in the countryside, from what I can see pretty much all schools are CofE. Country dwellers don't appear to get a choice.
    If we're to allow faith schools, we should also allow faithless schools.
    You do, you could now set up an atheist free school if you wanted to.

    Plus parents can withdraw their children from faith assemblies if they wish
    Would it be possible to establish a satanist free school?
    Yes, provided it was not doing anything illegal and got good results
    You do realise, we need to cut public spending, or at least any good Conservatice thinks so.

    Make people selfreliant. Give them choice. Free them from the state.

    I have a great idea - make all schools sectarian, far greater efficiency, no need to spend money and timetable time on RI, parents have total choice on the religious bit, lots of private enterprise opportunity for small firms to provide the religious stuff, etc.

    And what do you do? you dribble all over the idea like an enraged sea cucumber.

    You're a subsidy junkie like someting from the 1960s, complete with flared trousers.

    Tories aren't what they used to be.
    No, if you go down that route you make all schools private and have no state schools at all if you really want to maximise efficiency. So you could have some private religious schools too and some private academically selective schools and fees would be set at ability to pay, so you could have cheap private schools with low fees affordable to those on average or even below average wages with those surviving being those which got the best results and offered the most extra curricular activities. The state could still provide some top up funding for all but the most expensive private schools but they would all charge fees and all be privately run. Education would be a true market then
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,271

    This thread has been caught using their phone to watch p0rn

  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,978
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ Tim Westwood steps down from his show until further notice

    Why has this broken now.
    There have been rumours about Westwood for YEARS.

    Strange to think that his father was a Bishop.
    The one thing which surprised me about this story, was that he's 64!
    Only 14 years younger than @Big_G_NorthWales.
    Why connect me to this DJ ?
    No offence intended. Sorry if taken.
    Thanks but the accusations against him are appalling and everything I stand against

    I pride myself that I have always treated women with respect, and not least those who worked for me during the 40 years I ran my business and even today are personal friends

    I am disgusted with the behaviour of some mps and it seems, according to todays report, it is cross party with 3 cabinet ministers and 2 shadow cabinet ministers under investigation

    What is wrong with these people ?
    Simple answer, those that seek to be mp's should rarely be allowed to run a charity shop
    What do you mean. I ran a charity shop.

    ydoethur said:

    Health Minister Eluned Morgan broke Senedd rules over speeding, watchdog says

    The Welsh government said it did not comment on leaked reports. The Welsh Conservatives said the Labour minister "has said that politicians should lead by example but has failed to do that herself".

    Andrew RT Davies is truly f***ing cretinous.
    I concur but speeding is far more dangerous than eating a cake !!!!!!!
    That is a very disingenuous post. You know full well it is not about cake it is about one rule for us, one rule for them and misleading Parliament.

    Morgan has been punished in the same way any of the rest of us have and would be when we have been caught speeding.

    Besides which isn't Johnson's defence, one of his FPN is no worse than a speeding ticket.

    Shame on you BigG.
    This wasn't a single speeding offence and she has been found to have broken the Senedd code of conduct

    'Wales' health minister has been found by a politicians' watchdog to have broken the Senedd code of conduct after being convicted for speeding four times.

    Eluned Morgan was banned from driving in Mold Magistrates Court on 17 March.

    In a report, yet to be published but seen by BBC Wales, Senedd Standards Commissioner Douglas Bain said the offences set a "very poor example" and demonstrated a disregard for the law.

    My point stands.

    If she has accumulated 12 points she gets a ban and uses the bus- like the rest of us would. If the rules are she is also censured by the Senedd, so be it.

    I am not condoning the offences, particularly if a member of my family was crossing the road in front of her, but it is wholly different to Johnson's partying misdeeds, for so many reasons.

    Talking of motoring offences, Johnson's bonfire of 'elf and safety in the form of two year MOTs is insane. Walk up any street and look at car tyres on vehicles. Some look like racing slicks. At least they require checking and changing once a year now- and think of all the little independent garages that will go to the wall on the back of this nonsense,
    Ironically, it has been claimed that saving money on MOT tests will lead to paying more in insurance premiums.
    It seems daft.

    I’m all in favour of the easing of rules around childcare, though.

    Several countries in Europe have ZERO limits on the child to carer ratio including such right-wing hell-holes as Germany and Denmark.

    The UK has regulated childcare into one of the most expensive industries in the country.
    Indeed.

    The hand that rocks the cradle rules the bank.
    When the current regulations on ratios of children to careers were introduced, New lAbour were warned what would happen, in some detail. They went ahead and the prophecies were exactly fulfilled.

    1) "Proper' childcare became very expensive - in London, it's not far off fees for private school. So more and more middle class people have their budgets "stretched" ready to go straight through to the private sector.
    2) If you are rich enough to have a house with a spare room, AuPairs are just as unregulated as before. And just as cheap.
    3) If you aren't in the first 2 categories, you use unregulated child minding. Which is cheap and a bit like mini cabs used to be in London, before they made them legal....
    Dunno about 1.

    I am in that category and the second I could get him out of paid childcare I resolved to piss the money up the wall on good wining and dining instead.
    Ha. What did the wife say?
    She joined me. State schools round here are good so why pay more? 🙂
    Depends on your location - some are very good. Some are shocking. The behaviour of parents in choosing which state school to go to (when they have choice) is another interesting story....
    I’d never pretend to believe in a spaghetti monster just to get into a ‘good’ school if that’s what you mean (although how it could be a good school if it teaches that a spaghetti monster rules our lives is another question…)
    If the choice in your area was 2 inadequate or requires improvement state schools and an outstanding faith school which needed a vicar's reference to get in I bet you would, especially if you could not afford to go private and there were no grammar schools in the area either.

    Hence churches in catchment areas of outstanding faith schools are often full when admissions for the new intake are coming round

    Easy. Close down the subsidised sectarian school and improve the two comprehensives with the resources.

    You want faith schooling? You pay for it out of your own pocket, not mine and everyone else's. This not very well hidden state subsidy of sectarianism is one of the biggest arguments for eradicating Establishment of a sect in (one of the nations of) the UK.
    Judging by the Glasgow Rangers supporting pupils, we have plenty of sectarian schools in Ayrshire, funded by the state.
    Only too well aware of it. Though in that case it is perhaps more an absence of the other side. Also funded by the state.
    If it wasn’t for sectarianism, they would maybe support Kilmarnock or Ayr United.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,066
    Lots of attention garnered, Brand Musk boosted, job done.


  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    Who the heck sends anyone porn?
    I have never felt the urge to send any. Nor have I ever received any.
    Maybe that's just me.

    Neither have I.

    I've had to investigate its possession and use often enough, though. There is a great deal of atrocious criminal activity associated with it. Those who use it are like those using hard drugs - in part responsible for the criminal activity which underpins what they consume. A revolting industry - if it can be called that.

    I know I will be accused of being a prude but it is the jokey oh this is all normal approach to it which allows far too many to avoid realising the brutal and squalid reality behind it. And, frankly, the way it warps the minds of those using it.
    As long as it is made with consenting adults and watched by adults I have no problem with porn being legal to watch in peoples' spare time. Nothing to be proud of or necessarily ashamed of either, just meets a demand.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,333

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Who the heck sends anyone porn?
    I have never felt the urge to send any. Nor have I ever received any.
    Maybe that's just me.

    And of course, define porn.

    “Porn? I was catching up on last episode of bridgeton!”
    Phones should be banned from the chamber. Or just put a Faraday cage around it during the rebuild.
    I agree. None of them are listening to the debate. They are all on their phones. I had assumed updating and checking twitter to make it look like they relevant, but seems just watching porn.
    Obviously not defending porn in the Chamber, but expecting constant riveted attention is unrealistic. Say the debate is on schools, and you hope to get in with a comment on religious education, as per this thread. Someone who you've heard 20 times before on the subject strands up and repeats his views for 10 minutes. You can't leave, as you'll miss your chance to contribute (the Speaker marks down anyone who's missing at any stage). You really don't want to listen to X saying the same things a 21st time. You have 100 emails that you need to deal with today (or you'll have 200 to do tomorrow). Of course you quietly deal with them while X drones on.

    The rules changed while I was there - at one stage all electronic communication (in those days mostly laptops) was banned even in committee sessions. The effect was that members would go and do stuff in the corridor outside the committee room, ready to be called in if needed. Eventui]ally it was decided to allow them, so that people could deal with correspondence while at least half-listening to the debate.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    Did any of the “God’s” say “I always read your pieces on PB for entertainment Stodge - but I read MoonRabbit for racing tips and to better understand what is happening in politics.”

    Nb. 600-800, not happening apparently, Rawling and Thrasher have -400 a disaster for Tories in mail today, on basis so many of these seats that are up are held by Labour on a high mark for them in 2018, so just Labour holds is actually not a bad Labour performance. The NS said a similar thing. In a way it means Boris is lucky, again, as losing 300 the media narrative will be better than expected for Tories, disappointing for Starmer, but the psephological experts won’t be listened to that this isn’t fair or true. Like you I have high hopes for good Libdem night. And it will be interesting watching greens, as con to green the Tory’s will shrug off as mid term government, but Labour to green will be horrible for Labour to explain.

    One of the problems this time is boundary changes mean a considerable number of "new" Wards have been created so using the Councillor numbers from last time as a basis to calculate the seat changes this time is misleading and inaccurate, one might argue, up there with some people's racing tips and understanding of politics.

    Don't forget we have a big round of all-up elections in Wales and Scotland as well as many English urban centres such as London and Birmingham along with the usual third-up councils.

    As an example, Labour will probably gain 6 seats in Newham without doing very much at all because the 20 3-member Wards are now 22 thanks to population growth. Some Councils have more seats, some fewer.

    For the Conservatives to lose 40-50% of the council seats being defended is melt down territory so I agree 800 looks overblown. Losing a quarter would mean 400-450 and that feels more sensible but again looking at the figures the scope for losses is outside London where the Conservatives made gains last time (as did Labour and the LDs as the UKIP local Government base was annihilated) rather than in London where the Conservatives lost 92 last time.

    The prediction in London is 71 more Conservative losses which would be 14% of the total. 30% outside London would be 250 on the old boundaries - add a few for the new boundaries and you get close to 400.
    Gary Burton in reply to HY made a solid point which caught my eye.

    Since Boris been leader the Tories have had good locals - so in places like Swindon where part of the council is up, Tories took such a good grip last year no sort of good night there for Labour can much dent Tory control, and it’s same like that a lot of places where part of council is up. There aren’t many “council gained” headlines available for Labour. In terms of media narrative it’s easy to see it portrayed as flat night for Starmer more than bad night for Boris. I think this is what serious psephologicals are trying to get us to realise. It’s not going to be a night of spectacular headlines that’s somblack and white to call whose doing well and bad. Like “Labour have flipped Swindon, key target in general election” “Tory’s remain in control of Swindon, a Key marginal Labour must gain if they are to oust Boris.”

    You see what I mean. We need to prepare ourselves for devil being in the detail. We probably can’t argue over till Saturday.

    And of course Libdem and Greens havn’t had the hoped for good night against Stay at home Tories yet either. It’s the hoping and anticipation that is so stressful. Another week to go! 🫣
    Swindon is 36 Conservative councillors and 20 Labour councillors. 9 Tory council seats in Swindon are up in May so if Labour won all of them they would take control of Swindon council
    Yes. But is it really a bad night for Starmer if they don’t? That’s the nub of what we are arguing about here isn’t it?

    But why don’t we on PB now use Swindon as a special case, we can observe the actual change and then see what sort of “science” can prove who had the better night there afterwards. By science I mean, Labour need to hold theirs, flip all 9, but what are the wards usually like they need to flip? Some surely are more winnable than others?

    As I understood Gary’s reply to you, those in one party try to set unrealistic bars for their opponents and to quickly get to microphones when they have failed? But what I am proposing, we could afterwards look at the swing trend in those 9 seats, and get a very accurate feel how well Labour did that is regardless of the headline failure?

    I’ll add it to my to do list 🙂
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    This thread has been caught using their phone to watch p0rn

    After much thrashing around and beautiful agony, this thread has reached a blissful conclusion.

    Time for a cigarette.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited April 2022
    A shory while ago it looked like Dems might actually come out of redistricting without taking too much of a kicking.

    However some gob smacking shadow docket rulings later plusbstar court interventions and the GOP get the upper hand

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1519423162978557952?t=sKVhmlXxnSZlVq1__E1a9w&s=19
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    Did any of the “God’s” say “I always read your pieces on PB for entertainment Stodge - but I read MoonRabbit for racing tips and to better understand what is happening in politics.”

    Nb. 600-800, not happening apparently, Rawling and Thrasher have -400 a disaster for Tories in mail today, on basis so many of these seats that are up are held by Labour on a high mark for them in 2018, so just Labour holds is actually not a bad Labour performance. The NS said a similar thing. In a way it means Boris is lucky, again, as losing 300 the media narrative will be better than expected for Tories, disappointing for Starmer, but the psephological experts won’t be listened to that this isn’t fair or true. Like you I have high hopes for good Libdem night. And it will be interesting watching greens, as con to green the Tory’s will shrug off as mid term government, but Labour to green will be horrible for Labour to explain.

    One of the problems this time is boundary changes mean a considerable number of "new" Wards have been created so using the Councillor numbers from last time as a basis to calculate the seat changes this time is misleading and inaccurate, one might argue, up there with some people's racing tips and understanding of politics.

    Don't forget we have a big round of all-up elections in Wales and Scotland as well as many English urban centres such as London and Birmingham along with the usual third-up councils.

    As an example, Labour will probably gain 6 seats in Newham without doing very much at all because the 20 3-member Wards are now 22 thanks to population growth. Some Councils have more seats, some fewer.

    For the Conservatives to lose 40-50% of the council seats being defended is melt down territory so I agree 800 looks overblown. Losing a quarter would mean 400-450 and that feels more sensible but again looking at the figures the scope for losses is outside London where the Conservatives made gains last time (as did Labour and the LDs as the UKIP local Government base was annihilated) rather than in London where the Conservatives lost 92 last time.

    The prediction in London is 71 more Conservative losses which would be 14% of the total. 30% outside London would be 250 on the old boundaries - add a few for the new boundaries and you get close to 400.
    Gary Burton in reply to HY made a solid point which caught my eye.

    Since Boris been leader the Tories have had good locals - so in places like Swindon where part of the council is up, Tories took such a good grip last year no sort of good night there for Labour can much dent Tory control, and it’s same like that a lot of places where part of council is up. There aren’t many “council gained” headlines available for Labour. In terms of media narrative it’s easy to see it portrayed as flat night for Starmer more than bad night for Boris. I think this is what serious psephologicals are trying to get us to realise. It’s not going to be a night of spectacular headlines that’s somblack and white to call whose doing well and bad. Like “Labour have flipped Swindon, key target in general election” “Tory’s remain in control of Swindon, a Key marginal Labour must gain if they are to oust Boris.”

    You see what I mean. We need to prepare ourselves for devil being in the detail. We probably can’t argue over till Saturday.

    And of course Libdem and Greens havn’t had the hoped for good night against Stay at home Tories yet either. It’s the hoping and anticipation that is so stressful. Another week to go! 🫣
    Swindon is 36 Conservative councillors and 20 Labour councillors. 9 Tory council seats in Swindon are up in May so if Labour won all of them they would take control of Swindon council
    Yes. But is it really a bad night for Starmer if they don’t? That’s the nub of what we are arguing about here isn’t it?

    But why don’t we on PB now use Swindon as a special case, we can observe the actual change and then see what sort of “science” can prove who had the better night there afterwards. By science I mean, Labour need to hold theirs, flip all 9, but what are the wards usually like they need to flip? Some surely are more winnable than others?

    As I understood Gary’s reply to you, those in one party try to set unrealistic bars for their opponents and to quickly get to microphones when they have failed? But what I am proposing, we could afterwards look at the swing trend in those 9 seats, and get a very accurate feel how well Labour did that is regardless of the headline failure?

    I’ll add it to my to do list 🙂
    Blair won both Swindon seats in 1997. Swindon South is 77th on the Labour target list and needs to be won by Labour for them to be largest party in a hung parliament, Swindon North is 171st on the Labour target list and would be won by them if they were heading for a clear overall majority.

    So if Labour are doing badly in Swindon still in May, they are not heading for Government at the next general election
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    On mobileporngate, it seems to me relevant that the accused is a Tory MP, and the complainant and her corroborator are also both Tory MPs. Surely they must be pretty sure of their ground to go public (within their own party) against one of their own? It's obvious that it's not party politics being played out here.

    Read the room. The good men of PB have decided this poor Tory MP caught watching porn was the innocent victim of a harmless bit of banter from one of his many friends, who sent him a sexually explicit meme that's easy for the simple-minded women now allowed into the chamber to confuse with real porn. And that's okay!
    Well I just suggested the possibility that it was a WhatsApp group text - purely because I find it completely outlandish/bonkers/barmy that anyone would think of deliberately watching porn in the Commons chamber.

    Maybe I am just naive!!
    Was on a Skype for Business call, back in the day, with someone sharing their screen who had a pornhub tab open on their browser. People tell stories of people watching porn on public transport.

    This sort of thing happens by degrees. People get obsessed by it and desensitised, and don't realise what they're doing. It initially sounds shocking, but then it seems kinda inevitable that someone would do it eventually.

    That, or the whole point of watching it was to be seen watching it, and thereby intimidate people. That also happens and it is encouraged by an environment of impunity, where people are seen to be doing wrong, and not being held to account for it.
    Another thing about this, is how our own screens and tabs can feel so personal to us and our own world, we forget how public they can be.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:


    Did any of the “God’s” say “I always read your pieces on PB for entertainment Stodge - but I read MoonRabbit for racing tips and to better understand what is happening in politics.”

    Nb. 600-800, not happening apparently, Rawling and Thrasher have -400 a disaster for Tories in mail today, on basis so many of these seats that are up are held by Labour on a high mark for them in 2018, so just Labour holds is actually not a bad Labour performance. The NS said a similar thing. In a way it means Boris is lucky, again, as losing 300 the media narrative will be better than expected for Tories, disappointing for Starmer, but the psephological experts won’t be listened to that this isn’t fair or true. Like you I have high hopes for good Libdem night. And it will be interesting watching greens, as con to green the Tory’s will shrug off as mid term government, but Labour to green will be horrible for Labour to explain.

    One of the problems this time is boundary changes mean a considerable number of "new" Wards have been created so using the Councillor numbers from last time as a basis to calculate the seat changes this time is misleading and inaccurate, one might argue, up there with some people's racing tips and understanding of politics.

    Don't forget we have a big round of all-up elections in Wales and Scotland as well as many English urban centres such as London and Birmingham along with the usual third-up councils.

    As an example, Labour will probably gain 6 seats in Newham without doing very much at all because the 20 3-member Wards are now 22 thanks to population growth. Some Councils have more seats, some fewer.

    For the Conservatives to lose 40-50% of the council seats being defended is melt down territory so I agree 800 looks overblown. Losing a quarter would mean 400-450 and that feels more sensible but again looking at the figures the scope for losses is outside London where the Conservatives made gains last time (as did Labour and the LDs as the UKIP local Government base was annihilated) rather than in London where the Conservatives lost 92 last time.

    The prediction in London is 71 more Conservative losses which would be 14% of the total. 30% outside London would be 250 on the old boundaries - add a few for the new boundaries and you get close to 400.
    Gary Burton in reply to HY made a solid point which caught my eye.

    Since Boris been leader the Tories have had good locals - so in places like Swindon where part of the council is up, Tories took such a good grip last year no sort of good night there for Labour can much dent Tory control, and it’s same like that a lot of places where part of council is up. There aren’t many “council gained” headlines available for Labour. In terms of media narrative it’s easy to see it portrayed as flat night for Starmer more than bad night for Boris. I think this is what serious psephologicals are trying to get us to realise. It’s not going to be a night of spectacular headlines that’s somblack and white to call whose doing well and bad. Like “Labour have flipped Swindon, key target in general election” “Tory’s remain in control of Swindon, a Key marginal Labour must gain if they are to oust Boris.”

    You see what I mean. We need to prepare ourselves for devil being in the detail. We probably can’t argue over till Saturday.

    And of course Libdem and Greens havn’t had the hoped for good night against Stay at home Tories yet either. It’s the hoping and anticipation that is so stressful. Another week to go! 🫣
    Swindon is 36 Conservative councillors and 20 Labour councillors. 9 Tory council seats in Swindon are up in May so if Labour won all of them they would take control of Swindon council
    Yes. But is it really a bad night for Starmer if they don’t? That’s the nub of what we are arguing about here isn’t it?

    But why don’t we on PB now use Swindon as a special case, we can observe the actual change and then see what sort of “science” can prove who had the better night there afterwards. By science I mean, Labour need to hold theirs, flip all 9, but what are the wards usually like they need to flip? Some surely are more winnable than others?

    As I understood Gary’s reply to you, those in one party try to set unrealistic bars for their opponents and to quickly get to microphones when they have failed? But what I am proposing, we could afterwards look at the swing trend in those 9 seats, and get a very accurate feel how well Labour did that is regardless of the headline failure?

    I’ll add it to my to do list 🙂
    Blair won both Swindon seats in 1997. Swindon South is 77th on the Labour target list and needs to be won by Labour for them to be largest party in a hung parliament, Swindon North is 171st on the Labour target list and would be won by them if they were heading for a clear overall majority.

    So if Labour are doing badly in Swindon still in May, they are not heading for Government at the next general election
    Not arguing at all with what you say. Only how to rather fairly, even scientifically, define well and bad.
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,032

    Applicant said:

    Eurovision Winner

    Ukraine 1.93
    Italy 6
    Sweden 9.4
    England and satellite states 13.5
    Castile and satellite states 22
    50 bar

    I’ve heard the U.K. entry and I’d give it 100. It’s another shocker.
    The quality of the song is irrelevant when it comes to the Yookay. They could put up a timeless classic, performed by musical geniuses, and it would still end up in the bottom quartile. It’s not the song that’s duff, it’s the brand.
    That’s one theory, but for the last 20 years we have entered such utter dross it’s almost as if we are trying not to win, in order to avoid hosting. Not unlike the Father Ted plot. For a nation of such dominant pop/rock, we haven’t half chosen some shit to perform awful songs. Other nations have their leading artists in the gig.
    Our leading artists have no interest in competing.
    Is that true? Or are we not paying enough?
    They can and do focus on commercial success. Eurovision is no upside and lots of potential downside
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,032

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    As I observed the other day, to some disbelief

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3896030#Comment_3896030

    "Spoke to someone v close to govt last week and they were super worried about govt finances. Forget about lower spending they were seeing a likelihood of cuts. The debt servicing bill is eye watering and unsustainable. That puts the Cons in a difficult place in the run up to any election."

    My first instinct was (and still is) that this is Treasury bollocks to scare backbench MPs and excuse the current tax regime.
    They were very worried. And not sure what would happen when the penny drops amongst the public at large.
    This sounds like probable baloney.

    The traditional point of concern is when Govt Debt Interest is getting towards 4% of GDP.

    As far as I can see, we are under 2%.
    https://obr.uk//docs/dlm_uploads/CCS1021486854-001_OBR-EFO-October-2021_CS_Web-Accessible_v2.pdf

    (Open to correction if anyone has any startling recent or alternate data.)
    And as mentioned to @rcs1000 very sensitive to inflation in itself, on account of its index-linked borrowing, and also the concomitant rate rises.
    That depends what % of borrowing is index linked. Two reasons we were comparatively insulated from the impacts in 2010 and following was that most of our borrowing was a) our high percentage of fixed rate public debt and b) our longer term public debt compared to most other countries (10-15 years vs 5 years) so we did not have to go into the market to roll it over as soon.

    So there was headroom to spread out public finance recovery.

    The % of index-linked is higher now - not sure how much higher.

    If there is an analysis that demonstrates this is a real problem in terms of borrowing costs going to an unacceptable level of GDP *now* I'd like to see it - rather than speculation on possibilities.

    Aha - see max supplied some numbers.
    From your document:

    "Relative to March 2021, interest costs have been revised up by £15.0 billion in 2021- 22, £15.5 billion in 2022-23 and an average of nearly £6 billion a year across the rest of the forecast. Again, this is predominantly due to higher than expected RPI inflation, with the increase in interest costs associated with index-linked gilts accounting for £13.8 billion and £10.3 billion of the increase in 2021-22 and 2022-23 respectively. Higher interest rates also increase debt interest spending across the forecast, while a higher path for Bank Rate reduces the impact of the APF in bringing down interest costs from 2022-23 onwards. "

    That was an October 2021 document. Six months ago. Oh how the world has changed since then.

    Meanwhile 25% of our debt is index linked.
    Without undermining the seriousness of balancing the budget (which I do believe in) index linked isn't really that major of an issue.

    Sure a quarter to a third may be index linked, but if the country is growing in real terms then that should really be read as two thirds to three quarters is not index linked.

    Debt to GDP is the relevant figure, and debt servicing to GDP. Inflation may cost cash, but if the GDP is growing then that should relatively cancel each other out.

    A few decades of inflation is probably what we need now to deflate away the debts we have borrowed. That is basically what succeeded from 45 to 74 approximately.
    £46 billion is the amount spent this year in debt interest payments. It is easy to hide this as 3% of something or other. It is £1000 per year for 40 million people. That's a lot of extra tax to pay, or a lot of universal credit increase that didn't happen. And we have borrowed much more than this figure this year anyway, so we haven't even paid anything, we have just increased the debt.

    That 46bn is before the return of interest from the BoE. Don't forget that a not insubstantial proportion of our debt is held by the BoE.
    People as dim as me need to know where the BoE gets all that money from to return the interest, where they got the money from to fund the government debt in the first place; and I am so dim that I think that if the BoE conjures up the stuff from the air that they are stealing value from someone who does the actual paying. Could that be us by any chance?

    Eh?

    The point is that HMG doesn't really pay interest on bonds held by the Bank of England, as the money is returned to the Treasury. The real debt service load is therefore less than the headline number.
    Just pop that into the language of dim people like me.....

    The Bank of England has printed money and bought the debt. Since we owe money to the Bank, but we own the Bank, we owe money to ourselves so its cancelled out.

    We still report the headline figure of how much we owe as the full debt total, including to the Bank, as it is a polite conceit to pretend that the Bank didn't print money in order to finance the debt.
    The intention is to sterilise the intervention over time
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    Well no they shouldn't be able to accuse of lying, because it may not be a lie. And what you will get is MP's wrongly accusing MP's of lying and worse. Leading to very quickly a close approximation of other Parliaments, for example India and South Africa. A look at those on YouTube will show just how much the Speaker of the house has lost control of Parliament. When we have this much accusation going around, very hard to keep control.

    So the public are wrong , it is a case of most people (57%) failing to see the big picture. So we must now worry about our democracy. I think on this evidence it is doomed. I don't care about one lie told by one MP, what I care about is Parliament. Are these lies anyway, that is the question. Ian Blackford for example accuses a lot of MP's of lying habitually. Most are not lies, but a change in policy. For example at the last Conservative manifesto, accusing Tories of lying when all they did was change the policy. Or for example accusing Hancock of lying when he said (and has said recently on GB news) that he wanted to put a protective ring around care homes. That was not a lie, but an exaggeration or a hope rather than the situation at the time. It's a good example of what we will have if lying is allowed. Hansard should tell us positively if a lie has been told, and if someone has they should correct the record. If someone has lied deliberately, I think it is hard to prove that. When say Boris had said to have lied, wasn't that about one specific party and not all alleged parties. Look up Hansard if you feel that is the case, me I am not bothered about it at all. And so will not.
This discussion has been closed.