Used a rare day off to visit a cafe in Kennington (a bit overrated) and go to Harvey Nicks (as you do).
Those who assert life is "back to normal" after the coronavirus forget it's not just a question of crowds and masks - it's the gaps in the retail estate, the physical scars of the virus if you prefer (as distinct from the mental scars which are of a very different kind) which remind us something fundamental has happened.
Walking from Vauxhall to Elephant today and even down Sloane Street and Knightsbridge, there are gaps, empty units, shuttered businesses, shattered lives (perhaps overstated but each closure tells a story or stories).
Those who seek to equate the 2020s to the 1920s may want to consider for all the wealthy were flapping, roaring and dancing the charleston, it may not have been such a fun time for the poor and those left wounded and damaged by the war. There's a romanticised notion of the 1920s (as there is of a different kind for the 1930s) which as with all such things doesn't sit well with the reality.
Between the Labour Party and the Conservative Party, which do Britons most associate with lower taxes?
Labour: 36% Conservative: 16% Neither: 29%
Respondents aged 35-to-44 are most likely to say Labour stands for lower taxes (49%)
Game. Over.
Feels very much like a one-term Labour government coming.
For starters yes. We can't elect a two term Labour government sadly.
We did in 1997.
True, though it needn't have been a three term government.
So. Suppose the Conservatives do end up in opposition in 2024. Does the party seek to please itself, or please the voters it needs to win back? Only one strategy works, but the other one feels so good...
A good question. The difference with 1997 is (a) Labour won't have anywhere near as big a majority, and (b) by the look of the polling CHB so approvingly posted, their voters will end up much more disappointed by an SKS first term than they were by Blair's first term.
That's why the Conservative response is potentially significant in a way that Hague (bless him) wasn't. However, my hunch is that, once party members get involved, the post-defeat self indulgence (JRM would just be too ridiculous, but you get the idea) is hard to avoid.
Yep, where the Tories go having succumbed to Boris Johnson and let him have his wicked way with them is an interesting and important question.
Will they return to more traditional centre right politics, sound money, smaller state, individual aspiration etc? Or will they double down on the Nationalistic Right Populism?
Talking of Planning, there's an interesting little complicated issue brewing.
74 local authorities have restricted Plannign Apps - in some cases simly freezing a *lot* - because English Heritage have advised that there is a requirement to show that developments do not increase *nitrate* pollution.
Follows an ECJ ruling on a Dutch case from 2018. I have no idea what this has to do with UK housebuilding now. 60k houses delayed so far, it is estimated.
Local Planning Authorities seem to have their heads spinning. Affected areas:
English Heritage? Surely not. Environment Agency / Natural England?
I'd have thought building on agricultural fields would reduce nitrate pollution in most cases.
@MattW The issue here is Habitats legislation derived from EU law but now transposed in to UK law. It requires a 'likely significant effect' on certain protected sites to be ruled out before 'plans and projects' can proceed. The evolution of case law on the subject has meant that this applies to very abstract situations - eg car exhaust fumes from a additional vehicular movements associated with one car on a forest 20 miles away where environmental degradation has taken place. Because the cause of the environmental degradation is uncertain, a likely significant effect cannot be ruled out, and whilst this uncertainty exists, planning permission cannot be granted. That is how the courts have applied the law, and decision makers (Council's and planning Inspectors) have to follow, even though it often feels wildly disproportionate and manifestly absurd.
I have not had direct experience of the current nitrates stuff - but I understand is rooted in various litigation against housing development where Natural Englands advice on how impacts can be mitigated was challenged in the courts, the result being that there is no way for development to go ahead. The consequence is that Natural England have effectively issued a directive against such housing development in large parts of England (about 70 local authorities) and any permissions granted against this advice could be overturned in court.
The government have told the Council's asking them to find a solution, and given them each £100k to do so. I think the idea is that, for each area, you set up some kind of mitigation plan to neutralise the impact on a case by case basis, but obviously that is going to be subject to challenge on a case by case basis. Every legal challenge brings the barristers etc in and costs big money - £100k won't go very far.
OK, so this is effectively a 'precautionary principle' where because you can't prove something won't have an effect it prevents you from doing anything at all. Hmmm.
I know that we are now moving to 'Biodiversity Net Gain' for a lot of development, though. The developers have to show that they can either make improvements within the site itself or they have to pay indulgences to someone to improve biodiversity elsewhere. Of course, this is all designed by DEFRA to be as arbitrary as possible and can be gamed by destroying as much as possible first (though this is not new, developers often "clear" a site before applying for permission).
Common sense seems to be lacking throughout.
The only thing that seems to get instant approval round here is yet another massive 1km long shed.
Agreed. It seems to be a clusterfuck. My diagnosis is English Nature not able to bit the bullet, unless their new enviromental boss has made a decision that they may risk lawsuits the other way eg from some enviro charities who don't care if they make houses more expensive. Or perhaps a Judicial Review from Great Jumping Jolyon.
Some similarities to the Dartford Warbler et al SPA complications, perhaps?
Imo it may a Gove policy decision to cut through the crap.
There are still ways to mitigate, as UK planning law is quite flexible in seeking practicality (I am mainly concerned with self-builders), but a worry for larger developers. And much time and money wasted on paperwork.
“Painting of the orange cat Otto von Garfield, Count of Bismarck-Schönhausen, Duke of Lauenburg, Minister-President of Prussia. Depicted wearing a Prussian Pickelhaube and eating his favorite meal - lasagna.”
Love Otto. He looks Prussian!
Well, desire to dominate territory, disdain for inferior others...
Thos two are part of "absolutely everyone you’d expect to do so", duh.
She is not carrying her back benches here Applicant.
Too busy working to watch or listen, but I'll take your word for it. That would rather challenge the idea that the Tory party has been reduced to a spineless populist non-conservative party that will inevitably elect a mini-Boris whenever he leaves, doesn't it?
Thos two are part of "absolutely everyone you’d expect to do so", duh.
She is not carrying her back benches here Applicant.
Too busy working to watch or listen, but I'll take your word for it. That would rather challenge the idea that the Tory party has been reduced to a spineless populist non-conservative party that will inevitably elect a mini-Boris whenever he leaves, doesn't it?
It’s about 50/50 on this. Maybe 40/60 against now she don’t have David Davis either.
I don't think it matters which party forms the next government in terms of tax. The politics on it is very clear and we'll follow the same basic trajectory regardless of which party is elected.
That trajectory is that the NHS & Social Care Levy will be increased (towards 10% over time) and the proceeds will be split between cuts to income tax, funding the long-term trend of increases to NHS spending, and miscellaneous pet projects.
This isn't a question of ideology, good governance, or economic efficiency. It's a very simple calculus that income tax is much more unpopular than an NHS levy.
Wealth tax is interesting though. Will Labour risk it at the GE?
The problems with a wealth tax are that: 1. You've used the word "tax". 2. People get scared when you tell them you will tax their savings. 3. It will be incredibly easy to attack in an election campaign - think Dementia Tax, only much, much worse.
And she is absolutely right. A ridiculous policy whipped up to distract everyone from her own failings.
And yet all she does is point a finger at the existing Labour government. How long have the tories been in charge? 12 odd years?
iirc only single males would be shipped to Rwanda. It struck me that the gangs will simply tell lone males that they need to hook up with a woman with children. I'm sure they can help with that for a few quid more.
Dall-e 2 is still producing the most extraordinary images
From the prompt:
“A photo of kittens stressing over a spreadsheet in an office”
Strikes me, those under threat from this are the “stock photographers”.
Leon’s “art work” coming to click bait in due course.
I agree on this. I've an App I've developed and I've really struggled to find an image to use with it as it is quite a niche area. The image needs to be quite casual rather than professional which also makes it harder. I have one image that was freely available but rather low image quality. I hope with Dall-e that I will be able to type in what I am looking for and get something suitable. Stock photography is going to be in trouble. People will still want art hand crafted as that has value attached to it.
Walking from Vauxhall to Elephant today and even down Sloane Street and Knightsbridge, there are gaps, empty units, shuttered businesses, shattered lives (perhaps overstated but each closure tells a story or stories).
We can’t have detail on the policy because the gangs will exploit it? Wtf?
Talk about half baked, it’s come to the table with a pulse. Send it back to the kitchen and demand a different chef!
Not oven ready?
I’ll repeat the main take out. We can’t have detail on the policy because the gangs will exploit it?
Wtf?
Why anyone believes a word they say I do not know. This policy is simply all about getting favourable media headlines and further deepening the rights distrust of the courts and the system. Which is all very weird as they are the ones who run the courts and system.
Walking from Vauxhall to Elephant today and even down Sloane Street and Knightsbridge, there are gaps, empty units, shuttered businesses, shattered lives (perhaps overstated but each closure tells a story or stories).
As far as Wakefield is concerned, let's go beyond the obvious.
A straight 10% swing from Conservative to Labour would, on 2019 GE turnout, give Labour a 5,500 majority and I would guess that or anything better than that would be a good start for Labour (OB & S had a 10.2% swing). Starmer would be thrilled (doubtless) with a 15% swing or anything larger as that would indicate the direct switching of votes from Conservative to Labour which would be what is required for a Labour GE victory.
The offer option is Labour wins not because it's popular but because the Conservatives aren't. In theory, Labour could win 40% with the Conservatives crashing to 30% and strong showings from the Yorkshire Party (15%?), the LDs (10%?) or other minor parties.
That would be a decent swing from Conservative to Labour but wouldn't suggest huge confidence in Labour but rather disillusionment/anger with the Conservatives. That said, losing up to a third of your last GE vote doesn't augur well for the next GE and this would still leave the Conservatives staring at losses but he notion might be these votes could still be retrieved with changes in policy, personnel.
Used a rare day off to visit a cafe in Kennington (a bit overrated) and go to Harvey Nicks (as you do).
Those who assert life is "back to normal" after the coronavirus forget it's not just a question of crowds and masks - it's the gaps in the retail estate, the physical scars of the virus if you prefer (as distinct from the mental scars which are of a very different kind) which remind us something fundamental has happened.
Walking from Vauxhall to Elephant today and even down Sloane Street and Knightsbridge, there are gaps, empty units, shuttered businesses, shattered lives (perhaps overstated but each closure tells a story or stories).
Those who seek to equate the 2020s to the 1920s may want to consider for all the wealthy were flapping, roaring and dancing the charleston, it may not have been such a fun time for the poor and those left wounded and damaged by the war. There's a romanticised notion of the 1920s (as there is of a different kind for the 1930s) which as with all such things doesn't sit well with the reality.
“Painting of the orange cat Otto von Garfield, Count of Bismarck-Schönhausen, Duke of Lauenburg, Minister-President of Prussia. Depicted wearing a Prussian Pickelhaube and eating his favorite meal - lasagna.”
Love Otto. He looks Prussian!
Well, desire to dominate territory, disdain for inferior others...
That's pretty much a shared philosophy, isn't it?
It didn’t mean it cat terms but looks so Second Rich!
Cor blimey, luvvaduck, I should coco, me old cock sparrer...
I would have thought the references to Newham and East Ham might have been a giveaway but ne'er mind. Saw a couple of Labour posters in Walworth Road and then remembered I thought that's where Labour used to have their HQ - I don't know where they live now. The Conservatives were in Great Smith Street and the LDs were in Cowley Street but I know Labour ended up in Millbank Tower by 1997.
Dall-e 2 is still producing the most extraordinary images
From the prompt:
“A photo of kittens stressing over a spreadsheet in an office”
Strikes me, those under threat from this are the “stock photographers”.
Leon’s “art work” coming to click bait in due course.
I agree on this. I've an App I've developed and I've really struggled to find an image to use with it as it is quite a niche area. The image needs to be quite casual rather than professional which also makes it harder. I have one image that was freely available but rather low image quality. I hope with Dall-e that I will be able to type in what I am looking for and get something suitable. Stock photography is going to be in trouble. People will still want art hand crafted as that has value attached to it.
So many areas of art and design are lethally menaced by dall-e 2, and its superior successors (and they will come, soon)
But yes, one obvious victim is stock photography. Dall-e 2 will produce BETTER stock photos, immediately, for pennies
I've just seen a video where dall-e paints an entire story told by a 5 year old child: making a book for the child out of the child's wild dreams
So producers of art for kids are a bit fecked, as well. Every child will be her own illustrator
I don't think it matters which party forms the next government in terms of tax. The politics on it is very clear and we'll follow the same basic trajectory regardless of which party is elected.
That trajectory is that the NHS & Social Care Levy will be increased (towards 10% over time) and the proceeds will be split between cuts to income tax, funding the long-term trend of increases to NHS spending, and miscellaneous pet projects.
This isn't a question of ideology, good governance, or economic efficiency. It's a very simple calculus that income tax is much more unpopular than an NHS levy.
Wealth tax is interesting though. Will Labour risk it at the GE?
The problems with a wealth tax are that: 1. You've used the word "tax". 2. People get scared when you tell them you will tax their savings. 3. It will be incredibly easy to attack in an election campaign - think Dementia Tax, only much, much worse.
Yes. I agree. It's a political risk which I'll be surprised if they take. Ditto on other 'difficult' things, eg gender, private schools. I'm expecting them (or "us" rather since I'm a member) to be cagey. Policies will only see the light of day if they poll well with the sort of voters who'll decide the GE in FPTP terms. These voters (imo) being people who aren't really Tories who voted Tory last time because of Brexit and Jezza.
And she is absolutely right. A ridiculous policy whipped up to distract everyone from her own failings.
And yet all she does is point a finger at the existing Labour government. How long have the tories been in charge? 12 odd years?
iirc only single males would be shipped to Rwanda. It struck me that the gangs will simply tell lone males that they need to hook up with a woman with children. I'm sure they can help with that for a few quid more.
T May and others have tried to nail her down to a no women n children rule but she won't
@francska1 Last night state TV's Vladimir Solovyov suggested genocide accusations made against Moscow were aimed at preparing British public opinion for a nuclear strike by the UK on Russia
And she is absolutely right. A ridiculous policy whipped up to distract everyone from her own failings.
And yet all she does is point a finger at the existing Labour government. How long have the tories been in charge? 12 odd years?
iirc only single males would be shipped to Rwanda. It struck me that the gangs will simply tell lone males that they need to hook up with a woman with children. I'm sure they can help with that for a few quid more.
T May and others have tried to nail her down to a no women n children rule but she won't
Considering we find it hard for people to even define who is a woman and who is a child, that seems reasonable.
"Used a generative tool in private beta and it's very good! My prompt was "Bowl of soup in the style of Aubrey Beardsley". Expected the AI to make Art Nouveaux-style illustrations OF soup, but got illustrations IN the soup. Looks doable IRL with a needle tip bottle & garnish🍃"
"The greatest part about #dalle is that two people can ask for the same exact prompt and you will never get the same output twice. Every image is a snowflake."
And she is absolutely right. A ridiculous policy whipped up to distract everyone from her own failings.
And yet all she does is point a finger at the existing Labour government. How long have the tories been in charge? 12 odd years?
iirc only single males would be shipped to Rwanda. It struck me that the gangs will simply tell lone males that they need to hook up with a woman with children. I'm sure they can help with that for a few quid more.
Load the boats with women and children instead as business model? Surely the Homsec has war gamed that obvious one.
It’s not been as good an hour for Patel as I thought it would.
We can’t have the details, as it would help the gangs. The suspicion all around the house she don’t actually have detail that proves it actually works reducing crossings, nor that it can’t be a costly failure. So in absence of that, she’s down to just right wing populism in terms of support, she is leaning on “the opposition don’t have a policy, they don’t want this sorted out” and “labour are out of touch with the people” coming from behind her.
In fact she’s talking about the problem as the opposition would, talking about the gangs being evil and need tackling through work with our international partners. It’s so explicitly a cover up of getting nowhere in years.
Talking of Planning, there's an interesting little complicated issue brewing.
74 local authorities have restricted Plannign Apps - in some cases simly freezing a *lot* - because English Heritage have advised that there is a requirement to show that developments do not increase *nitrate* pollution.
Follows an ECJ ruling on a Dutch case from 2018. I have no idea what this has to do with UK housebuilding now. 60k houses delayed so far, it is estimated.
Local Planning Authorities seem to have their heads spinning. Affected areas:
English Heritage? Surely not. Environment Agency / Natural England?
I'd have thought building on agricultural fields would reduce nitrate pollution in most cases.
@MattW The issue here is Habitats legislation derived from EU law but now transposed in to UK law. It requires a 'likely significant effect' on certain protected sites to be ruled out before 'plans and projects' can proceed. The evolution of case law on the subject has meant that this applies to very abstract situations - eg car exhaust fumes from a additional vehicular movements associated with one car on a forest 20 miles away where environmental degradation has taken place. Because the cause of the environmental degradation is uncertain, a likely significant effect cannot be ruled out, and whilst this uncertainty exists, planning permission cannot be granted. That is how the courts have applied the law, and decision makers (Council's and planning Inspectors) have to follow, even though it often feels wildly disproportionate and manifestly absurd.
I have not had direct experience of the current nitrates stuff - but I understand is rooted in various litigation against housing development where Natural Englands advice on how impacts can be mitigated was challenged in the courts, the result being that there is no way for development to go ahead. The consequence is that Natural England have effectively issued a directive against such housing development in large parts of England (about 70 local authorities) and any permissions granted against this advice could be overturned in court.
The government have told the Council's asking them to find a solution, and given them each £100k to do so. I think the idea is that, for each area, you set up some kind of mitigation plan to neutralise the impact on a case by case basis, but obviously that is going to be subject to challenge on a case by case basis. Every legal challenge brings the barristers etc in and costs big money - £100k won't go very far.
OK, so this is effectively a 'precautionary principle' where because you can't prove something won't have an effect it prevents you from doing anything at all. Hmmm.
I know that we are now moving to 'Biodiversity Net Gain' for a lot of development, though. The developers have to show that they can either make improvements within the site itself or they have to pay indulgences to someone to improve biodiversity elsewhere. Of course, this is all designed by DEFRA to be as arbitrary as possible and can be gamed by destroying as much as possible first (though this is not new, developers often "clear" a site before applying for permission).
Common sense seems to be lacking throughout.
The only thing that seems to get instant approval round here is yet another massive 1km long shed.
Sorry - Natural England. English Nature was rebranded to that.
@francska1 Last night state TV's Vladimir Solovyov suggested genocide accusations made against Moscow were aimed at preparing British public opinion for a nuclear strike by the UK on Russia
Used a rare day off to visit a cafe in Kennington (a bit overrated) and go to Harvey Nicks (as you do).
Those who assert life is "back to normal" after the coronavirus forget it's not just a question of crowds and masks - it's the gaps in the retail estate, the physical scars of the virus if you prefer (as distinct from the mental scars which are of a very different kind) which remind us something fundamental has happened.
Walking from Vauxhall to Elephant today and even down Sloane Street and Knightsbridge, there are gaps, empty units, shuttered businesses, shattered lives (perhaps overstated but each closure tells a story or stories).
Those who seek to equate the 2020s to the 1920s may want to consider for all the wealthy were flapping, roaring and dancing the charleston, it may not have been such a fun time for the poor and those left wounded and damaged by the war. There's a romanticised notion of the 1920s (as there is of a different kind for the 1930s) which as with all such things doesn't sit well with the reality.
That honestly surprises me. Everywhere in London that I have been, recently, looks totally back to normal, if not somewhat improved by the new variety
And the proportion of empty retail outlets, nationwide, is 14% of the total, pre-pandemic it was 12%, so the stats ALSO say that things are nearly back to normal
(that was in the FT this morning, talking about a boom in gyms in town centres)
But maybe rich southwest London is still suffering from the lack of foreign tourists?
Used a rare day off to visit a cafe in Kennington (a bit overrated) and go to Harvey Nicks (as you do).
Those who assert life is "back to normal" after the coronavirus forget it's not just a question of crowds and masks - it's the gaps in the retail estate, the physical scars of the virus if you prefer (as distinct from the mental scars which are of a very different kind) which remind us something fundamental has happened.
Walking from Vauxhall to Elephant today and even down Sloane Street and Knightsbridge, there are gaps, empty units, shuttered businesses, shattered lives (perhaps overstated but each closure tells a story or stories).
Those who seek to equate the 2020s to the 1920s may want to consider for all the wealthy were flapping, roaring and dancing the charleston, it may not have been such a fun time for the poor and those left wounded and damaged by the war. There's a romanticised notion of the 1920s (as there is of a different kind for the 1930s) which as with all such things doesn't sit well with the reality.
A somewhat slanted take, although not unexpected from you, as you are given to perennial ostentatious pessimism. The West End is booming back – many of the really dull chains have been replaced by exciting and interesting independents.
Used a rare day off to visit a cafe in Kennington (a bit overrated) and go to Harvey Nicks (as you do).
Those who assert life is "back to normal" after the coronavirus forget it's not just a question of crowds and masks - it's the gaps in the retail estate, the physical scars of the virus if you prefer (as distinct from the mental scars which are of a very different kind) which remind us something fundamental has happened.
Walking from Vauxhall to Elephant today and even down Sloane Street and Knightsbridge, there are gaps, empty units, shuttered businesses, shattered lives (perhaps overstated but each closure tells a story or stories).
Those who seek to equate the 2020s to the 1920s may want to consider for all the wealthy were flapping, roaring and dancing the charleston, it may not have been such a fun time for the poor and those left wounded and damaged by the war. There's a romanticised notion of the 1920s (as there is of a different kind for the 1930s) which as with all such things doesn't sit well with the reality.
Robert Skidelsky @RSkidelsky Application by Finland to join NATO would be a catastrophic mistake. It would break its 1948 neutrality pact with Russia. the mutually accepted and observed basis of its independence [1 of 3]
Used a rare day off to visit a cafe in Kennington (a bit overrated) and go to Harvey Nicks (as you do).
Those who assert life is "back to normal" after the coronavirus forget it's not just a question of crowds and masks - it's the gaps in the retail estate, the physical scars of the virus if you prefer (as distinct from the mental scars which are of a very different kind) which remind us something fundamental has happened.
Walking from Vauxhall to Elephant today and even down Sloane Street and Knightsbridge, there are gaps, empty units, shuttered businesses, shattered lives (perhaps overstated but each closure tells a story or stories).
Those who seek to equate the 2020s to the 1920s may want to consider for all the wealthy were flapping, roaring and dancing the charleston, it may not have been such a fun time for the poor and those left wounded and damaged by the war. There's a romanticised notion of the 1920s (as there is of a different kind for the 1930s) which as with all such things doesn't sit well with the reality.
That honestly surprises me. Everywhere in London that I have been, recently, looks totally back to normal, if not somewhat improved by the new variety
And the proportion of empty retail outlets, nationwide, is 14% of the total, pre-pandemic it was 12%, so the stats ALSO say that things are nearly back to normal
(that was in the FT this morning, talking about a boom in gyms in town centres)
But maybe rich southwest London is still suffering from the lack of foreign tourists?
A number of the big, noticeable outfits have gone. COVID has accelerated the existing trend.
Dall-e 2 is still producing the most extraordinary images
From the prompt:
“A photo of kittens stressing over a spreadsheet in an office”
Strikes me, those under threat from this are the “stock photographers”.
Leon’s “art work” coming to click bait in due course.
I agree on this. I've an App I've developed and I've really struggled to find an image to use with it as it is quite a niche area. The image needs to be quite casual rather than professional which also makes it harder. I have one image that was freely available but rather low image quality. I hope with Dall-e that I will be able to type in what I am looking for and get something suitable. Stock photography is going to be in trouble. People will still want art hand crafted as that has value attached to it.
So many areas of art and design are lethally menaced by dall-e 2, and its superior successors (and they will come, soon)
But yes, one obvious victim is stock photography. Dall-e 2 will produce BETTER stock photos, immediately, for pennies
I've just seen a video where dall-e paints an entire story told by a 5 year old child: making a book for the child out of the child's wild dreams
So producers of art for kids are a bit fecked, as well. Every child will be her own illustrator
A collapse in public confidence in economic management preceded each of last 3 changes in govt: Winter of discontent (1978) ushers in Thatcher (1979) ERM crisis (1992) ushers in Blair (1997) Global financial crisis (2007-8) ushers in Coalition (2010) Cost of living crisis next?
That honestly surprises me. Everywhere in London that I have been, recently, looks totally back to normal, if not somewhat improved by the new variety
And the proportion of empty retail outlets, nationwide, is 14% of the total, pre-pandemic it was 12%, so the stats ALSO say that things are nearly back to normal
(that was in the FT this morning, talking about a boom in gyms in town centres)
But maybe rich southwest London is still suffering from the lack of foreign tourists?
I don't go to North London because that's where the two-headed troll people live (so I've been told). Perhaps you have the same notion about Vauxhall if you are calling it "rich south west London"?
Expressing a national figure tells you one thing - I would argue the proportion of empty retail within London has risen - it may well have fallen in other areas, I can't tell. We also know some retail space has been converted to residential so that might also be a little misleading.
There are clear signs tourists are returning - passing through central London there were plenty about which is no bad thing especially for the main central areas.
As for the boom in gyms, perhaps it's an easy way to use retail space which would otherwise be empty. If we are seeing landlords reducing rents to sensible levels, that would be a step forward. I have seen these 24-hour gyms which you can access at 4am though why anyone would want to is, as with much else in this life it would seem, beyond my ken.
Used a rare day off to visit a cafe in Kennington (a bit overrated) and go to Harvey Nicks (as you do).
Those who assert life is "back to normal" after the coronavirus forget it's not just a question of crowds and masks - it's the gaps in the retail estate, the physical scars of the virus if you prefer (as distinct from the mental scars which are of a very different kind) which remind us something fundamental has happened.
Walking from Vauxhall to Elephant today and even down Sloane Street and Knightsbridge, there are gaps, empty units, shuttered businesses, shattered lives (perhaps overstated but each closure tells a story or stories).
Those who seek to equate the 2020s to the 1920s may want to consider for all the wealthy were flapping, roaring and dancing the charleston, it may not have been such a fun time for the poor and those left wounded and damaged by the war. There's a romanticised notion of the 1920s (as there is of a different kind for the 1930s) which as with all such things doesn't sit well with the reality.
Those IMF growth predictions are pretty disappointing.
If you deflate by population growth (to get a rough per capita view), the UK is tipped to be the *weakest* performer in the G7 for the period 2020-2023.
"Used a generative tool in private beta and it's very good! My prompt was "Bowl of soup in the style of Aubrey Beardsley". Expected the AI to make Art Nouveaux-style illustrations OF soup, but got illustrations IN the soup. Looks doable IRL with a needle tip bottle & garnish🍃"
"The greatest part about #dalle is that two people can ask for the same exact prompt and you will never get the same output twice. Every image is a snowflake."
@leon you have burst two of my preconceptions about you, maybe because of all your travel, but I thought your girls were older teenagers plus the other day you mentioned taking the dog for a walk. Where did the dog come from and what happens to it when you travel so much.
A somewhat slanted take, although not unexpected from you, as you are given to perennial ostentatious pessimism. The West End is booming back – many of the really dull chains have been replaced by exciting and interesting independents.
Yet you see what you want to see. Odd.
Apart from the tedious ad hom attack, which immediately tells me I've won the argument, it's the retail off the beaten track which is suffering most from lack of footfall.
To be fair, in East Ham High Street, we continue to see any closed retail units rapidly re-purposed and re-configured suggesting there's still a strong entrepreneurial dynamic out there so I wouldn't say the High Street is dead but nor would I say it is now what it was pre-Coronavirus.
“Painting of the orange cat Otto von Garfield, Count of Bismarck-Schönhausen, Duke of Lauenburg, Minister-President of Prussia. Depicted wearing a Prussian Pickelhaube and eating his favorite meal - lasagna.”
“Painting of the orange cat Otto von Garfield, Count of Bismarck-Schönhausen, Duke of Lauenburg, Minister-President of Prussia. Depicted wearing a Prussian Pickelhaube and eating his favorite meal - lasagna.”
Love Otto. He looks Prussian!
Not sure it is a Pickelhaube ... not spiky enough?
It’s true. Dall-E has failed. It’s just given us a second rich provincial station master eating his tea.
@francska1 Last night state TV's Vladimir Solovyov suggested genocide accusations made against Moscow were aimed at preparing British public opinion for a nuclear strike by the UK on Russia
I wonder how he compiled that list. For me the acceptable ones are Hunt, Javid and surprisingly, although not possible, Sunak. Surely Fox and Leadsom are not in the running.
@francska1 Last night state TV's Vladimir Solovyov suggested genocide accusations made against Moscow were aimed at preparing British public opinion for a nuclear strike by the UK on Russia
Nutter tory MP who seems to think the people smuggling is across the Thames rather than the Channel.
He just misspoke. In fact I’ve been watching it since half two and diction has been dreadful. Only the Bishop Aukland Tory lady spoke well in my opinion.
The speaker opened up all over the shop in his statement about allowing Starmer his vote Thursday. Did anyone see that?
I wonder how he compiled that list. For me the acceptable ones are Hunt, Javid and surprisingly, although not possible, Sunak. Surely Fox and Leadsom are not in the running.
Keir Starmer the most popular politician in Britain.
Most least unpopular?
Yeah, 31-53 is still far from convincing. Maybe if he finds a vision and some policies he can become actually popular.
Maybe actually having policy makes people less popular. At the moment every one can transfer onto him the idea he will help them, policies could tell them he won’t.
Nutter tory MP who seems to think the people smuggling is across the Thames rather than the Channel.
He just misspoke. In fact I’ve been watching it since half two and diction has been dreadful. Only the Bishop Aukland Tory lady spoke well in my opinion.
The speaker opened up all over the shop in his statement about allowing Starmer his vote Thursday. Did anyone see that?
"Used a generative tool in private beta and it's very good! My prompt was "Bowl of soup in the style of Aubrey Beardsley". Expected the AI to make Art Nouveaux-style illustrations OF soup, but got illustrations IN the soup. Looks doable IRL with a needle tip bottle & garnish🍃"
"The greatest part about #dalle is that two people can ask for the same exact prompt and you will never get the same output twice. Every image is a snowflake."
@leon you have burst two of my preconceptions about you, maybe because of all your travel, but I thought your girls were older teenagers plus the other day you mentioned taking the dog for a walk. Where did the dog come from and what happens to it when you travel so much.
Both girls in mid teens, and the dog lives with my older daughter and her mum (not me) a few miles away
That honestly surprises me. Everywhere in London that I have been, recently, looks totally back to normal, if not somewhat improved by the new variety
And the proportion of empty retail outlets, nationwide, is 14% of the total, pre-pandemic it was 12%, so the stats ALSO say that things are nearly back to normal
(that was in the FT this morning, talking about a boom in gyms in town centres)
But maybe rich southwest London is still suffering from the lack of foreign tourists?
I don't go to North London because that's where the two-headed troll people live (so I've been told). Perhaps you have the same notion about Vauxhall if you are calling it "rich south west London"?
Expressing a national figure tells you one thing - I would argue the proportion of empty retail within London has risen - it may well have fallen in other areas, I can't tell. We also know some retail space has been converted to residential so that might also be a little misleading.
There are clear signs tourists are returning - passing through central London there were plenty about which is no bad thing especially for the main central areas.
As for the boom in gyms, perhaps it's an easy way to use retail space which would otherwise be empty. If we are seeing landlords reducing rents to sensible levels, that would be a step forward. I have seen these 24-hour gyms which you can access at 4am though why anyone would want to is, as with much else in this life it would seem, beyond my ken.
Yes the FT said the gyms are benefiting from notably lower rents in prime retail areas, and the gyms bring people who want to spend and linger, so it's a virtuous loop
"Used a generative tool in private beta and it's very good! My prompt was "Bowl of soup in the style of Aubrey Beardsley". Expected the AI to make Art Nouveaux-style illustrations OF soup, but got illustrations IN the soup. Looks doable IRL with a needle tip bottle & garnish🍃"
"The greatest part about #dalle is that two people can ask for the same exact prompt and you will never get the same output twice. Every image is a snowflake."
@leon you have burst two of my preconceptions about you, maybe because of all your travel, but I thought your girls were older teenagers plus the other day you mentioned taking the dog for a walk. Where did the dog come from and what happens to it when you travel so much.
Both girls in mid teens, and the dog lives with my older daughter and her mum (not me) a few miles away
Nothing too complex
Sorry I miss read. I thought you had a toddler from what I was just reading. So my original thought were correct, 2 teenagers.
Politico.com - Opinion | Jeff Greenfield - How Orwell Diagnosed Democrats’ Culture War Problem Decades Ago The famed English writer warned that “cranks” on the left were turning off ordinary voters, even as broad support existed for progressive policies
I wonder how he compiled that list. For me the acceptable ones are Hunt, Javid and surprisingly, although not possible, Sunak. Surely Fox and Leadsom are not in the running.
Javid after his "non-dom" tax games?
I agree. I was just listing what I preferred regardless of their problems of getting the post. Note I also had Sunak in my list, who has even bigger issues.
Leon using DALLE-2...I bet it is like the ultimate boss guy out of the Southpark World of Warcraft episode.
There are serious tech CEOs on Twiter raving about dall-e - "the Cambrian explosion of AI creativity" - and saying they are completely addicted to making images, it is like being a child again, and it is akin to the first invention of the internet: it is that important
There are also many artists writing obituaries for their careers:
"AI is now definitively better than human artists in almost every sense of the word. Do you see the writing on the wall?"
Every day dall-e 2 produces something completely WTF
They said the same about special effects companies and animators when morphing became a thing and then CGI and now it'll be the death of Post Production companies ....but it never really is. It just makes things easier and cheaper and gives the originators more options. I shot a Seat Ibiza launch ad which was a 14 day shoot and two weeks post production with a production budget of 6 million Euros which could now be done for maybe a million. I would hate to be starting now.
Nutter tory MP who seems to think the people smuggling is across the Thames rather than the Channel.
He just misspoke. In fact I’ve been watching it since half two and diction has been dreadful. Only the Bishop Aukland Tory lady spoke well in my opinion.
The speaker opened up all over the shop in his statement about allowing Starmer his vote Thursday. Did anyone see that?
Again fails rule out sending women n children
How will a policy that doesn’t apply to children stop children from drowning?
Keir Starmer the most popular politician in Britain.
Most least unpopular?
Yeah, 31-53 is still far from convincing. Maybe if he finds a vision and some policies he can become actually popular.
Maybe actually having policy makes people less popular. At the moment every one can transfer onto him the idea he will help them, policies could tell them he won’t.
Exactly. You only go for policies if you're losing. Look at Labour last time. A veritable blizzard. They'll probably do that again if things are looking bleak. Otherwise it'll be Britain Deserves Better and The Joke's Not Funny Anymore and that should do it imo.
Leon using DALLE-2...I bet it is like the ultimate boss guy out of the Southpark World of Warcraft episode.
There are serious tech CEOs on Twiter raving about dall-e - "the Cambrian explosion of AI creativity" - and saying they are completely addicted to making images, it is like being a child again, and it is akin to the first invention of the internet: it is that important
There are also many artists writing obituaries for their careers:
"AI is now definitively better than human artists in almost every sense of the word. Do you see the writing on the wall?"
Every day dall-e 2 produces something completely WTF
They said the same about special effects companies and animators when morphing became a thing and then CGI and now it'll be the death of Post Production companies ....but it never really is. It just makes things easier and cheaper and gives the originators more options. I shot a Seat Ibiza launch ad which was a 14 day shoot and two weeks post production with a production budget of 6 million Euros which could now be done for maybe a million. I would hate to be starting now.
CGI movies can be soul less. Does Dall-E lack sound compared to a real painting? Certainly the creatively element, the vision thing I failed my exams on, is helped by this. But is there soul?
Was clear as soon as the Met delivered the fine that there were only two explanations. Either the PM deliberately misled the house (and be forced to resign) or he didn't understand his own rules. As uncomfortable as it must be for him, it's the latter explanation he's presenting. https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1516448873585258501
Was clear as soon as the Met delivered the fine that there were only two explanations. Either the PM deliberately misled the house (and be forced to resign) or he didn't understand his own rules. As uncomfortable as it must be for him, it's the latter explanation he's presenting. https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1516448873585258501
Yes, but he is saying he didn't realise the minor gathering for cake was a breach.
There is no way he can say that when we see the photo of him surrounded by bottles of booze on an all night bender.
Nutter tory MP who seems to think the people smuggling is across the Thames rather than the Channel.
He just misspoke. In fact I’ve been watching it since half two and diction has been dreadful. Only the Bishop Aukland Tory lady spoke well in my opinion.
The speaker opened up all over the shop in his statement about allowing Starmer his vote Thursday. Did anyone see that?
Again fails rule out sending women n children
How will a policy that doesn’t apply to children stop children from drowning?
Keir Starmer the most popular politician in Britain.
Most least unpopular?
Yeah, 31-53 is still far from convincing. Maybe if he finds a vision and some policies he can become actually popular.
Maybe actually having policy makes people less popular. At the moment every one can transfer onto him the idea he will help them, policies could tell them he won’t.
Exactly. You only go for policies if you're losing. Look at Labour last time. A veritable blizzard. They'll probably do that again if things are looking bleak. Otherwise it'll be Britain Deserves Better and The Joke's Not Funny Anymore and that should do it imo.
That'll get them a hung parliament, maybe as largest party. There don't need to be many policies but there do need to be some which need to give an indication of direction - look at how Blair did it.
@francska1 Last night state TV's Vladimir Solovyov suggested genocide accusations made against Moscow were aimed at preparing British public opinion for a nuclear strike by the UK on Russia
It would appear that the tanking the Ukrainians are giving them has lowered their threshold. Once upon a time we were just America's minor sidekicks. Now they are worried we can attack them unilaterally. They may need to keep an eye on Luxembourg next
Starmer: "As ever with this Prime Minister those close to him find themselves ruined and institutions he vows to protected, damaged. Good ministers forced to walk away from public service. The Chancellor's career up in flames. Leader of the Scottish Tories rendered pathetic." https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1516450141980532739
Which makes it...interesting that this govt's strategy with the "deport refugees to Rwanda" scheme is to make Priti Patel and her big ideas for refugee policy the centre of media and public attention https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1516426322528120843
Was clear as soon as the Met delivered the fine that there were only two explanations. Either the PM deliberately misled the house (and be forced to resign) or he didn't understand his own rules. As uncomfortable as it must be for him, it's the latter explanation he's presenting. https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1516448873585258501
The Moskva excuse.
No, we weren't sunk by Ukrainian missiles, our crew were just utterly stupid and blew their own ship up.
No, I didn't deliberately mislead the house, I'm just so thick I didn't understand my own laws on group gatherings.
Comments
Leon’s “art work” coming to click bait in due course.
Used a rare day off to visit a cafe in Kennington (a bit overrated) and go to Harvey Nicks (as you do).
Those who assert life is "back to normal" after the coronavirus forget it's not just a question of crowds and masks - it's the gaps in the retail estate, the physical scars of the virus if you prefer (as distinct from the mental scars which are of a very different kind) which remind us something fundamental has happened.
Walking from Vauxhall to Elephant today and even down Sloane Street and Knightsbridge, there are gaps, empty units, shuttered businesses, shattered lives (perhaps overstated but each closure tells a story or stories).
Those who seek to equate the 2020s to the 1920s may want to consider for all the wealthy were flapping, roaring and dancing the charleston, it may not have been such a fun time for the poor and those left wounded and damaged by the war. There's a romanticised notion of the 1920s (as there is of a different kind for the 1930s) which as with all such things doesn't sit well with the reality.
Will they return to more traditional centre right politics, sound money, smaller state, individual aspiration etc? Or will they double down on the Nationalistic Right Populism?
Who they choose as leader will tell us, I guess.
Some similarities to the Dartford Warbler et al SPA complications, perhaps?
Imo it may a Gove policy decision to cut through the crap.
There are still ways to mitigate, as UK planning law is quite flexible in seeking practicality (I am mainly concerned with self-builders), but a worry for larger developers. And much time and money wasted on paperwork.
There's a convo amongst self-builders here, with one or two having bought plots suddenly being left high and dry.
https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/topic/26745-ban-on-new-residential-development-across-74-uk-local-planning-authorities/
Wtf?
That's pretty much a shared philosophy, isn't it?
1. You've used the word "tax".
2. People get scared when you tell them you will tax their savings.
3. It will be incredibly easy to attack in an election campaign - think Dementia Tax, only much, much worse.
I didn't know you were another Londoner
A straight 10% swing from Conservative to Labour would, on 2019 GE turnout, give Labour a 5,500 majority and I would guess that or anything better than that would be a good start for Labour (OB & S had a 10.2% swing). Starmer would be thrilled (doubtless) with a 15% swing or anything larger as that would indicate the direct switching of votes from Conservative to Labour which would be what is required for a Labour GE victory.
The offer option is Labour wins not because it's popular but because the Conservatives aren't. In theory, Labour could win 40% with the Conservatives crashing to 30% and strong showings from the Yorkshire Party (15%?), the LDs (10%?) or other minor parties.
That would be a decent swing from Conservative to Labour but wouldn't suggest huge confidence in Labour but rather disillusionment/anger with the Conservatives. That said, losing up to a third of your last GE vote doesn't augur well for the next GE and this would still leave the Conservatives staring at losses but he notion might be these votes could still be retrieved with changes in policy, personnel.
The north of England, transplanted to that London.
I would have thought the references to Newham and East Ham might have been a giveaway but ne'er mind. Saw a couple of Labour posters in Walworth Road and then remembered I thought that's where Labour used to have their HQ - I don't know where they live now. The Conservatives were in Great Smith Street and the LDs were in Cowley Street but I know Labour ended up in Millbank Tower by 1997.
But yes, one obvious victim is stock photography. Dall-e 2 will produce BETTER stock photos, immediately, for pennies
I've just seen a video where dall-e paints an entire story told by a 5 year old child: making a book for the child out of the child's wild dreams
So producers of art for kids are a bit fecked, as well. Every child will be her own illustrator
And on, and on
Last night state TV's Vladimir Solovyov suggested genocide accusations made against Moscow were aimed at preparing British public opinion for a nuclear strike by the UK on Russia
https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1516341841288957953
"Used a generative tool in private beta and it's very good! My prompt was "Bowl of soup in the style of Aubrey Beardsley". Expected the AI to make Art Nouveaux-style illustrations OF soup, but got illustrations IN the soup. Looks doable IRL with a needle tip bottle & garnish🍃"
https://twitter.com/djbaskin/status/1497763195187982337?s=20&t=oqd3i0tQlbP9wsc-QZLLvA
"The greatest part about #dalle is that two people can ask for the same exact prompt and you will never get the same output twice. Every image is a snowflake."
https://twitter.com/abran/status/1515690776902225927?s=20&t=oqd3i0tQlbP9wsc-QZLLvA
https://twitter.com/abran/status/1515476213367721987?s=20&t=oqd3i0tQlbP9wsc-QZLLvA
It’s not been as good an hour for Patel as I thought it would.
We can’t have the details, as it would help the gangs. The suspicion all around the house she don’t actually have detail that proves it actually works reducing crossings, nor that it can’t be a costly failure. So in absence of that, she’s down to just right wing populism in terms of support, she is leaning on “the opposition don’t have a policy, they don’t want this sorted out” and “labour are out of touch with the people” coming from behind her.
In fact she’s talking about the problem as the opposition would, talking about the gangs being evil and need tackling through work with our international partners. It’s so explicitly a cover up of getting nowhere in years.
Well, that story got quite a lot of stuff added between the Newark Advertiser and City AM
Most importantly Goodlife Foods are hardly in the top 10 private sector local employers, never mind being the top employer of all.
It's A Dutch multinational consolidating.
But they are still gagging to link everything to Brexit :-) . Give it time.
https://www.newarkadvertiser.co.uk/news/food-maker-to-move-production-overseas-with-loss-of-up-to-10-9249175/
PROJECT FEAR!
The jobs haven't been lost, they were just a pre- Brexit mirage.
Subsidiary of a Danish multinational, which was itself bought by a Dutch multinational in 2015.
Closed one site and m Sorry - Natural England. English Nature was rebranded to that.
English Heritage was my brain-blip.
He will be the full David Icke by the end of April, declaring lizards from Pluto are running Downing Street.
And the proportion of empty retail outlets, nationwide, is 14% of the total, pre-pandemic it was 12%, so the stats ALSO say that things are nearly back to normal
(that was in the FT this morning, talking about a boom in gyms in town centres)
But maybe rich southwest London is still suffering from the lack of foreign tourists?
A Labour govt led by Keir Starmer: 27% (+5 from mid-March)
A Conservative govt led by Boris Johnson: 27% (-4)
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/04/19/labour-have-caught-tories-best-government-manage-e https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1516432911561592834/photo/1
Yet you see what you want to see. Odd.
Keir Starmer: -22
Sajid Javid: -29
Rishi Sunak: -44
Boris Johnson: -45
Priti Patel: -58
Liz Truss: -27 (37% say don't know
Nadine Dorries (8-10 Apr): -31 (47% say don't know
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/04/19/non-dom-scandal-and-covid-fines-send-johnson-and-s https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1516422512216887302/photo/1
Sir Robert Goodwill outlines the potential merits of Sunak, Raab, Javid, Leadsom, Fox & Hunt, in correspondence sent after PM’s partygate fine.
Full text of email👇🏻 https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1516440700015022083/photo/1
Robert Skidelsky
@RSkidelsky
Application by Finland to join NATO would be a catastrophic mistake. It would break its 1948 neutrality pact with Russia. the mutually accepted and observed basis of its independence [1 of 3]
https://twitter.com/RSkidelsky/status/1515612394562768898
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2022/04/19/its-growth-upon-growth-royal-lepage-sees-house-prices-rising-in-2022-despite-cooling-market.html
Progress is wonderful. If only it will just stop!
Winter of discontent (1978) ushers in Thatcher (1979)
ERM crisis (1992) ushers in Blair (1997)
Global financial crisis (2007-8) ushers in Coalition (2010)
Cost of living crisis next?
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1516441802550693889
Expressing a national figure tells you one thing - I would argue the proportion of empty retail within London has risen - it may well have fallen in other areas, I can't tell. We also know some retail space has been converted to residential so that might also be a little misleading.
There are clear signs tourists are returning - passing through central London there were plenty about which is no bad thing especially for the main central areas.
As for the boom in gyms, perhaps it's an easy way to use retail space which would otherwise be empty. If we are seeing landlords reducing rents to sensible levels, that would be a step forward. I have seen these 24-hour gyms which you can access at 4am though why anyone would want to is, as with much else in this life it would seem, beyond my ken.
To be fair, in East Ham High Street, we continue to see any closed retail units rapidly re-purposed and re-configured suggesting there's still a strong entrepreneurial dynamic out there so I wouldn't say the High Street is dead but nor would I say it is now what it was pre-Coronavirus.
The speaker opened up all over the shop in his statement about allowing Starmer his vote Thursday. Did anyone see that?
Nothing too complex
The Two Ronnies monologue writers have written this statement for the Prime Minister
“I say this, not as way of shirking responsibility or fudging the issue - but I genuinely didn’t know it was a party.”
The famed English writer warned that “cranks” on the left were turning off ordinary voters, even as broad support existed for progressive policies
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/04/19/orwell-teach-democrats-working-class-00025047
Edit: average home price in the GTA = $1.3 million.
https://www.google.com/search?client=opera&q=average+property+price+in+the+gta
Certainly the creatively element, the vision thing I failed my exams on, is helped by this. But is there soul?
Starmer cutting.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1516448873585258501
These days you need a library of perhaps 100k photos on the market.
There is no way he can say that when we see the photo of him surrounded by bottles of booze on an all night bender.
Sunak has properly winced at that. He looks about a hundred years older than this time last month, by the way.
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1516449710399266823
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1516450141980532739
A big grin spotted on Ed Davey's face...
Which makes it...interesting that this govt's strategy with the "deport refugees to Rwanda" scheme is to make Priti Patel and her big ideas for refugee policy the centre of media and public attention https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1516426322528120843
No, we weren't sunk by Ukrainian missiles, our crew were just utterly stupid and blew their own ship up.
No, I didn't deliberately mislead the house, I'm just so thick I didn't understand my own laws on group gatherings.