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The human factor – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,335
    New analysis of the French first round shows Macron, Zemmour and Pecresse and Jadot did best with the richest voters.

    Melenchon did best with the poor, Hidalgo best with middle earners and Le Pen best with the poor and middle earners
    https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1515849106970710017?s=20&t=aA1UeepnXyRUbPRxW8nxrA
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,023
    Does anyone think Kamala Harris might be value at about 14/1 for next US president?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/usa-presidential-election-2024/election-winner-betting-1.176878927
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,691

    Covfefe said:

    There’s a Federal election in Australia in a few weeks’ time (May 21). In the past week, the opposition leader has revealed himself to be more gaffe-prone than Biden, the polls have moved and the betting market has shifted dramatically. Could there be an article here?

    Looks like 2019 again and Morrison is doing better/less badly on the personal ratings as HYUFD has pointed out.
    I’m sticking with the opposition win on this one. The 2pp is still a huge swing on last time.

    At the moment.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Covfefe said:

    There’s a Federal election in Australia in a few weeks’ time (May 21). In the past week, the opposition leader has revealed himself to be more gaffe-prone than Biden, the polls have moved and the betting market has shifted dramatically. Could there be an article here?

    Question in Australia is NOT whether Anthony Albanese is more gaffe-prone than Joe Biden, but whether he's LESS gaffe-prone than Scott Morrison.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-19/federal-election-live-blog-scott-morrison-anthony-albanese/100997346
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,661
    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think Kamala Harris might be value at about 14/1 for next US president?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/usa-presidential-election-2024/election-winner-betting-1.176878927

    That market is to win the 2024 election, not to be the next president, so it does not cover President Biden standing down early for health reasons and Harris taking over, except that in that case she would probably be unopposed for Democrat nominee.

    In the other markets, Harris is 4/1 to be Democrat nominee and the Democrats are 5/4 to win, which implies a little over 10/1 for Harris to win (assuming these are independent which they are not really but it is good enough). So 14/1 (now 13/1) is a touch of value (though per @StuartDickson from a couple of threads back, beware the effect of inflation on your stake and winnings).
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think Kamala Harris might be value at about 14/1 for next US president?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/usa-presidential-election-2024/election-winner-betting-1.176878927

    She'd be excellent value at 14/1 for next US president but that's not what the market says, it's the 2024 election winner.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think Kamala Harris might be value at about 14/1 for next US president?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/usa-presidential-election-2024/election-winner-betting-1.176878927

    That market is to win the 2024 election, not to be the next president, so it does not cover President Biden standing down early for health reasons and Harris taking over, except that in that case she would probably be unopposed for Democrat nominee.

    In the other markets, Harris is 4/1 to be Democrat nominee and the Democrats are 5/4 to win, which implies a little over 10/1 for Harris to win (assuming these are independent which they are not really but it is good enough). So 14/1 (now 13/1) is a touch of value (though per @StuartDickson from a couple of threads back, beware the effect of inflation on your stake and winnings).
    I think Harris nominee and Dem win diverge quite hard from being independent, firstly because she's not very good, and secondly because health-permitting Biden is more likely to run again if things are going well for the Dems, so Kamala only gets a go if it's a bad situation.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,661
    One for @TheScreamingEagles and other PB Francophiles.

    SHAFTED BY FRENCH British men’s willies are only the 66th biggest in the world, study finds – & even French fared better
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18292969/british-mens-willies-66th-biggest-in-world/

    That the Sun needed to specify men's willies is presumably some sort of argument in the trans debate but I've no idea on which side.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    One for @TheScreamingEagles and other PB Francophiles.

    SHAFTED BY FRENCH British men’s willies are only the 66th biggest in the world, study finds – & even French fared better
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18292969/british-mens-willies-66th-biggest-in-world/

    That the Sun needed to specify men's willies is presumably some sort of argument in the trans debate but I've no idea on which side.

    The only thing that table is telling you is that Ecuadorean men are more insecure than the rest.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Rwanda genocide orphans ‘told to leave hostel to make room for UK asylum seekers’

    If these deportations ever do begin, the sordid details are going to be all over the media. You’d have thought the Tories would at least attempt to shake off the Nasty Party reputation, but they seem hell-bent on reinforcing it. If the party was a person it would have a diagnosis.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,738
    I want everyone to know have a very high QI.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,256
    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think Kamala Harris might be value at about 14/1 for next US president?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/usa-presidential-election-2024/election-winner-betting-1.176878927

    Interesting market, but note that it’s the 2024 election winner, not next president (thanks Betfair for the ambiguity).

    Ironically, she has a better chance if Biden stands down early, before the next election, leaving her as the incumbent.

    Meanwhile, Democrats are trying to work out how to sideline her if Biden stands down at the election. They don’t want her seen as the heir apparent, given her ratings are on the floor.
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/democrats-kamala-harris-problem
    Probably done by Biden getting primaried by Buttegieg
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,738
    Farooq said:

    My own IQ is over 140!

    HOW do I know? Because I just took a "test" on the web, that said my IQ was 140 if I could recognize pictures of 10 historical figures.

    I got a dozen before I decided to quit showing off!

    165. That on a test that was considerably more plausible than recognising photos.
    But it's all bollocks. I know why I score very well on these tests. It's because they are written exactly to my strengths. Numbers, words, spatial reasoning. I'm good at these things.
    But intelligence is about connecting the unconnected, or finding a new angle on something; that makes you clever. That kind of raw intelligence is manifested in the purest way in quipping. Yes, hear me out here, I'm dead serious*. Those who can make an joke at the click of a finger without it being some tired old pun that's been done a thousand times, they're the smart ones. Because they can perceive something that's happening right then and there, and connect it to something entirely different, and deliver that connection in a split second. Me? I'm probably below average at that. All those IQ tests are plodding handle-turning exercises that measure SOMETHING, something I'm good at, but it's not intelligence.

    *yeah, that was a joke. I think I've proven my point.
    That is *part* of intelligence. IQ tests test another part.

    But what is intelligence? I've listened to people working in the area have heated debates about how to define intelligence, yet alone how to test for it, or create artificial intelligence. Are there different 'types' of intelligence and, if so, what are they and how are they defined?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,738
    Good luck to Ukraine.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    According to this Oxford University professor, it requires a two-thirds majority in a parliamentary vote in order to initiate a Finnish NATO application. If true, that profoundly changes the arithmetic and the likelihood.

    https://www.hbl.fi/artikel/natomedlemskap-hotar-skapa-maktkamp/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,023

    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think Kamala Harris might be value at about 14/1 for next US president?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/usa-presidential-election-2024/election-winner-betting-1.176878927

    She'd be excellent value at 14/1 for next US president but that's not what the market says, it's the 2024 election winner.
    Sorry for misleading everyone. Maybe they have a separate market for next US president.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,256
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think Kamala Harris might be value at about 14/1 for next US president?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/usa-presidential-election-2024/election-winner-betting-1.176878927

    She'd be excellent value at 14/1 for next US president but that's not what the market says, it's the 2024 election winner.
    Sorry for misleading everyone. Maybe they have a separate market for next US president.
    It’s Betfair that are misleading. They also have market next UK PM which makes no reference to any elections.

    The precise definition of their Next President market was referred to when there were discussions about Trump standing down early, as people piled on Pence without realising the market was for the 2020 election rather than who was actually the next president. As always, the value is usually with “events” not happening.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,738
    "Four Russian fighter jets violated Swedish airspace on Wednesday- Reuters, citing Swedish armed forces"

    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1499096278579482629
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,661
    America to require US-made steel, iron for infrastructure
    https://apnews.com/article/business-41a18aac1a9405a5b6b257a798fad66e

    Take that, free traders! No chance we could follow in supporting our own industries.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,122
    Farooq said:

    Yes, hear me out here, I'm dead serious.

    That great argument between two Hollywood producers:

    "You're lyin' to me. You're LYIN' To me!"

    "Yeah - but hear me out...."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,122

    "Four Russian fighter jets violated Swedish airspace on Wednesday- Reuters, citing Swedish armed forces"

    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1499096278579482629

    About that stalling on Sweden joining NATO....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,122

    One for @TheScreamingEagles and other PB Francophiles.

    SHAFTED BY FRENCH British men’s willies are only the 66th biggest in the world, study finds – & even French fared better
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18292969/british-mens-willies-66th-biggest-in-world/

    That the Sun needed to specify men's willies is presumably some sort of argument in the trans debate but I've no idea on which side.

    Cry bollocks on this report, The Sun! India is supposedly above the British member, but India needed to have smaller condoms because the international standard sized ones, well, you can imagine....

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6161691.stm

    (Plus there will be 87 guys on here saying "Well, they never measured MINE!")
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,810

    One for @TheScreamingEagles and other PB Francophiles.

    SHAFTED BY FRENCH British men’s willies are only the 66th biggest in the world, study finds – & even French fared better
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18292969/british-mens-willies-66th-biggest-in-world/

    That the Sun needed to specify men's willies is presumably some sort of argument in the trans debate but I've no idea on which side.

    Cry bollocks on this report, The Sun! India is supposedly above the British member, but India needed to have smaller condoms because the international standard sized ones, well, you can imagine....

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6161691.stm

    (Plus there will be 87 guys on here saying "Well, they never measured MINE!")
    Morning all!

    It's quality, not quantity that counts! And expertise in use!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,122
    Three Chinese Covid deaths acknowledged in Shanghai presumably the tip of the iceberg. Each with underlying health issues.

    As well as a poor domestic vaccine, does China have any of the medicines that have come online for us in the West in the past year or so - ones that have dramatically assisted outcomes when people are hospitalised? If not - poor buggers.

    We should be sending these to China - whilst reminding them that their friends really are not in Moscow.

    https://apnews.com/article/covid-business-health-china-shanghai-8a87e198bccadd93d3788b315bc410bf
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,256

    "Four Russian fighter jets violated Swedish airspace on Wednesday- Reuters, citing Swedish armed forces"

    https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1499096278579482629

    Swedes being far too nice there. Should really have sent up their own armed jets to force them to land in Sweden.

    From what we now know of the poor serviceability affecting the Russian military, taking away four planes and pilots might make a reasonable difference to their capability in Ukraine.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,256
    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,970
    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    Bozo supporters working hard today!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,256

    Three Chinese Covid deaths acknowledged in Shanghai presumably the tip of the iceberg. Each with underlying health issues.

    As well as a poor domestic vaccine, does China have any of the medicines that have come online for us in the West in the past year or so - ones that have dramatically assisted outcomes when people are hospitalised? If not - poor buggers.

    We should be sending these to China - whilst reminding them that their friends really are not in Moscow.

    https://apnews.com/article/covid-business-health-china-shanghai-8a87e198bccadd93d3788b315bc410bf

    Yes, China needs to accept the need to lose face on vaccines, and get their hands on a billion of the Western jabs as soon as possible.

    There’s plenty of capacity, now that all we are doing in the West is follow ups with the elderly, and children as they become of age to receive them.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,661

    One for @TheScreamingEagles and other PB Francophiles.

    SHAFTED BY FRENCH British men’s willies are only the 66th biggest in the world, study finds – & even French fared better
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18292969/british-mens-willies-66th-biggest-in-world/

    That the Sun needed to specify men's willies is presumably some sort of argument in the trans debate but I've no idea on which side.

    Cry bollocks on this report, The Sun! India is supposedly above the British member, but India needed to have smaller condoms because the international standard sized ones, well, you can imagine....

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6161691.stm

    (Plus there will be 87 guys on here saying "Well, they never measured MINE!")
    Oh! What a beauty! I've never seen one as big as that before.

    Kenneth Williams sings the Marrow Song
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyTPEVv-hNE
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,975
    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think Kamala Harris might be value at about 14/1 for next US president?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/usa-presidential-election-2024/election-winner-betting-1.176878927

    Yes. Biden is not a well man.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    According to this Oxford University professor, it requires a two-thirds majority in a parliamentary vote in order to initiate a Finnish NATO application. If true, that profoundly changes the arithmetic and the likelihood.

    https://www.hbl.fi/artikel/natomedlemskap-hotar-skapa-maktkamp/

    There are only 6 MPs who have come out against it in Finland, as I understand it. The leader of the greens just came out in favour of joining NATO. It seems probable that all the parties will fall in line behind their leaders. Looks to be a similar political process going on in Sweden, albeit a bit slower and less certain.

    I think the 'arithmetic and likelihood' will be more affected by the attitude of certain other NATO member states towards the application, as it progresses.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,775
    edited April 2022

    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    What does cake have to do with it? Breaking the law is bad, doesn't have to be cake. The "its just cake" proponents will look like fools when he gets fined for the party where he is pouring the drinks. For the party where he is wearing the party hat. For the party where he is waving the beer bottle at the camera. Where he is pictured belting out Abba on kareoke. We know these all happened and we know the police are processing the ever-larger FPNs he will be slapped with.

    The real issue he has is misleading parliament. Had he said "I've been an idiot, I nearly died, I was reacting to that" he may have got away with it. Instead it "done nothing, only cake, bloody woke remoaners".

    A big 48 hours where we find out if JRM/HY amorality has properly taken root in the New Party.
    He’s not helped when he says as recently as last week that he can’t rule out lockdowns again in the future. No! He should be ruling that out. “The reason I broke the laws is because they were an ass, I apologise for presiding over their implementation and so long as I’m here, we’ll never commit such illiberal evidence free measures into law again”.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,746
    Sandpit said:

    Three Chinese Covid deaths acknowledged in Shanghai presumably the tip of the iceberg. Each with underlying health issues.

    As well as a poor domestic vaccine, does China have any of the medicines that have come online for us in the West in the past year or so - ones that have dramatically assisted outcomes when people are hospitalised? If not - poor buggers.

    We should be sending these to China - whilst reminding them that their friends really are not in Moscow.

    https://apnews.com/article/covid-business-health-china-shanghai-8a87e198bccadd93d3788b315bc410bf

    Yes, China needs to accept the need to lose face on vaccines, and get their hands on a billion of the Western jabs as soon as possible.

    There’s plenty of capacity, now that all we are doing in the West is follow ups with the elderly, and children as they become of age to receive them.
    The Pfizer vaccine is manufactured in China, for use in Hong Kong and other places... but is not approved in China itself.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,975
    Partygate - isn't the problem that the government chose to introduce draconian laws. And that this may have been the tip of the iceberg?

    More worryingly there have been reports of chemical weapons use in Izyum.
  • moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    What does cake have to do with it? Breaking the law is bad, doesn't have to be cake. The "its just cake" proponents will look like fools when he gets fined for the party where he is pouring the drinks. For the party where he is wearing the party hat. For the party where he is waving the beer bottle at the camera. Where he is pictured belting out Abba on kareoke. We know these all happened and we know the police are processing the ever-larger FPNs he will be slapped with.

    The real issue he has is misleading parliament. Had he said "I've been an idiot, I nearly died, I was reacting to that" he may have got away with it. Instead it "done nothing, only cake, bloody woke remoaners".

    A big 48 hours where we find out if JRM/HY amorality has properly taken root in the New Party.
    He’s not helped when he says as recently as last week that he can’t rule out lockdowns again in the future. No! He should be ruling that out. “The reason I broke the laws is because they were an ass, I apologise for presiding over their implementation and so long as I’m here, we’ll never commit such illiberal evidence free measures into law again”.
    I wouldn't agree with the proposal but yes, that would be a strategy! The problem with "nothing to see here move along I have a job to do don't you know there is a war on!!!" is that it purports that the PM is the just one, the moral one, and that the people raising cake are the fools.

    Its the other way round. The public aren't as stupid as the New party think and they are clearly not going to accept this deflection and move on as ordered.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,637
    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    What does cake have to do with it? Breaking the law is bad, doesn't have to be cake. The "its just cake" proponents will look like fools when he gets fined for the party where he is pouring the drinks. For the party where he is wearing the party hat. For the party where he is waving the beer bottle at the camera. Where he is pictured belting out Abba on kareoke. We know these all happened and we know the police are processing the ever-larger FPNs he will be slapped with.

    The real issue he has is misleading parliament. Had he said "I've been an idiot, I nearly died, I was reacting to that" he may have got away with it. Instead it "done nothing, only cake, bloody woke remoaners".

    A big 48 hours where we find out if JRM/HY amorality has properly taken root in the New Party.
    He’s not helped when he says as recently as last week that he can’t rule out lockdowns again in the future. No! He should be ruling that out. “The reason I broke the laws is because they were an ass, I apologise for presiding over their implementation and so long as I’m here, we’ll never commit such illiberal evidence free measures into law again”.
    He can't rule that out. Of course he can't. We don't know what diseases might come along - or indeed what covid might do encouraged by the mixing of war and, it looks like, famine.

    Doesn't matter if right wing Tories do a Violet Bott and thream and thream till they're thick. It is simply not possible to make such a promise. In fact, given his reputation, I'm surprised he's not simply doing the easy thing.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,775
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Three Chinese Covid deaths acknowledged in Shanghai presumably the tip of the iceberg. Each with underlying health issues.

    As well as a poor domestic vaccine, does China have any of the medicines that have come online for us in the West in the past year or so - ones that have dramatically assisted outcomes when people are hospitalised? If not - poor buggers.

    We should be sending these to China - whilst reminding them that their friends really are not in Moscow.

    https://apnews.com/article/covid-business-health-china-shanghai-8a87e198bccadd93d3788b315bc410bf

    Yes, China needs to accept the need to lose face on vaccines, and get their hands on a billion of the Western jabs as soon as possible.

    There’s plenty of capacity, now that all we are doing in the West is follow ups with the elderly, and children as they become of age to receive them.
    The Pfizer vaccine is manufactured in China, for use in Hong Kong and other places... but is not approved in China itself.
    Can’t they just do what they normally do? Nick the IP and stick a Chinese flag on the box? Really we should be falling over ourselves to encourage them to do this
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,007
    edited April 2022
    As I mentioned last night there are so many variables that impact the differences in IQ scores between nations and races to make any results meaningless. No one other than a racist could possibly believe that so many poor countries have low scores because they are stupid.

    @Leon claims Jews are super bright and proof is in the Nobel prizes won and anyone not accepting this is an idiot. Needless to say there is plenty of literature out there explaining the phenomenon that Leon decided to ignore about guess what, the other variables in play that impacted Jewish performance in society in the last century.

    It might be worth Leon applying his same logic by comparing Swedes to women, because that implies Swedes are substantially more intelligent than women. Obvious nonsense.

    @Leon and @HYUFD regularly demonstrate that just because you read something it doesn't make it correct or if it is jump to an unfounded simple reason for it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,637

    One for @TheScreamingEagles and other PB Francophiles.

    SHAFTED BY FRENCH British men’s willies are only the 66th biggest in the world, study finds – & even French fared better
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18292969/british-mens-willies-66th-biggest-in-world/

    That the Sun needed to specify men's willies is presumably some sort of argument in the trans debate but I've no idea on which side.

    Cry bollocks on this report, The Sun! India is supposedly above the British member, but India needed to have smaller condoms because the international standard sized ones, well, you can imagine....

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6161691.stm

    (Plus there will be 87 guys on here saying "Well, they never measured MINE!")
    Oh! What a beauty! I've never seen one as big as that before.

    Kenneth Williams sings the Marrow Song
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyTPEVv-hNE
    Photo carefully foreshortened, like "crowd" photos on fairly diffusely populated beaches 2 years back.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    My view of this is that it will only be a big problem if Johnson decides to go to court over the fines. If he just pays them, then he will get away with it on the basis that it is part of his unique political style. He has basically been saved by the war in Ukraine, it has completely overshadowed COVID, and a lot of people understandably struggle to come to terms with this reality and the injustice of it.

    With regard to the 'Rwanda' border policy, I don't think people really understand the detail of it. It is the usual thing where oppositions complain about the 'injustice' of a policy whilst proposing zero alternatives. If it works ok, and gets going, then the government will probably ultimately get some credit for it, particularly if it sorts out the illegal boat crossing problem. It will be a case of the government being the 'do-ers' and leading public opinion. Again this will feel like an enormous injustice to those that oppose it, but such is politics.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,775
    Carnyx said:

    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    What does cake have to do with it? Breaking the law is bad, doesn't have to be cake. The "its just cake" proponents will look like fools when he gets fined for the party where he is pouring the drinks. For the party where he is wearing the party hat. For the party where he is waving the beer bottle at the camera. Where he is pictured belting out Abba on kareoke. We know these all happened and we know the police are processing the ever-larger FPNs he will be slapped with.

    The real issue he has is misleading parliament. Had he said "I've been an idiot, I nearly died, I was reacting to that" he may have got away with it. Instead it "done nothing, only cake, bloody woke remoaners".

    A big 48 hours where we find out if JRM/HY amorality has properly taken root in the New Party.
    He’s not helped when he says as recently as last week that he can’t rule out lockdowns again in the future. No! He should be ruling that out. “The reason I broke the laws is because they were an ass, I apologise for presiding over their implementation and so long as I’m here, we’ll never commit such illiberal evidence free measures into law again”.
    He can't rule that out. Of course he can't. We don't know what diseases might come along - or indeed what covid might do encouraged by the mixing of war and, it looks like, famine.

    Doesn't matter if right wing Tories do a Violet Bott and thream and thream till they're thick. It is simply not possible to make such a promise. In fact, given his reputation, I'm surprised he's not simply doing the easy thing.
    Dunno why you think I’ll a right wing Tory. But it’s a simple fact that many measures were implemented over the two year period without any proper debate about the costs and benefits. Equally true for measures that they failed to implement. Your response confirms in my mind that lockdown policies were the biggest own goal to Western civilisation since 1914 and it’s going to take many decades to cure it (I.e. for the fiercest backers of the idea to die off).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,637

    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    Bozo supporters working hard today!
    Political equivalent of those leaflets from the more marginal animal welfare charities showing a soulful pooch and the accompanying text reading "if you don't donate this lovely puppy gets it". For puppy read Big Dog.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,569

    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    What does cake have to do with it? Breaking the law is bad, doesn't have to be cake. The "its just cake" proponents will look like fools when he gets fined for the party where he is pouring the drinks. For the party where he is wearing the party hat. For the party where he is waving the beer bottle at the camera. Where he is pictured belting out Abba on kareoke. We know these all happened and we know the police are processing the ever-larger FPNs he will be slapped with.

    The real issue he has is misleading parliament. Had he said "I've been an idiot, I nearly died, I was reacting to that" he may have got away with it. Instead it "done nothing, only cake, bloody woke remoaners".

    A big 48 hours where we find out if JRM/HY amorality has properly taken root in the New Party.
    If there are more, worse social gatherings our there, "it's just a cake" becomes a damn silly excuse.

    But to recognise and act on that would require anticipation of future consequences, and one of BoJo's talents has always been to live in the moment.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,935

    I want everyone to know have a very high QI.

    Some people quite excited about a racial component to it, I note with interest.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,071
    kjh said:

    As I mentioned last night there are so many variables that impact the differences in IQ scores between nations and races to make any results meaningless. No one other than a racist could possibly believe that so many poor countries have low scores because they are stupid.

    @Leon claims Jews are super bright and proof is in the Nobel prizes won and anyone not accepting this is an idiot. Needless to say there is plenty of literature out there explaining the phenomenon that Leon decided to ignore about guess what, the other variables in play that impacted Jewish performance in society in the last century.

    It might be worth Leon applying his same logic by comparing Swedes to women, because that implies Swedes are substantially more intelligent than women. Obvious nonsense.

    @Leon and @HYUFD regularly demonstrate that just because you read something it doesn't make it correct or if it is jump to an unfounded simple reason for it.

    Hopefully you're referring to the nationality, not the vegetable of the brassica genus.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,637
    moonshine said:

    Carnyx said:

    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    What does cake have to do with it? Breaking the law is bad, doesn't have to be cake. The "its just cake" proponents will look like fools when he gets fined for the party where he is pouring the drinks. For the party where he is wearing the party hat. For the party where he is waving the beer bottle at the camera. Where he is pictured belting out Abba on kareoke. We know these all happened and we know the police are processing the ever-larger FPNs he will be slapped with.

    The real issue he has is misleading parliament. Had he said "I've been an idiot, I nearly died, I was reacting to that" he may have got away with it. Instead it "done nothing, only cake, bloody woke remoaners".

    A big 48 hours where we find out if JRM/HY amorality has properly taken root in the New Party.
    He’s not helped when he says as recently as last week that he can’t rule out lockdowns again in the future. No! He should be ruling that out. “The reason I broke the laws is because they were an ass, I apologise for presiding over their implementation and so long as I’m here, we’ll never commit such illiberal evidence free measures into law again”.
    He can't rule that out. Of course he can't. We don't know what diseases might come along - or indeed what covid might do encouraged by the mixing of war and, it looks like, famine.

    Doesn't matter if right wing Tories do a Violet Bott and thream and thream till they're thick. It is simply not possible to make such a promise. In fact, given his reputation, I'm surprised he's not simply doing the easy thing.
    Dunno why you think I’ll a right wing Tory. But it’s a simple fact that many measures were implemented over the two year period without any proper debate about the costs and benefits. Equally true for measures that they failed to implement. Your response confirms in my mind that lockdown policies were the biggest own goal to Western civilisation since 1914 and it’s going to take many decades to cure it (I.e. for the fiercest backers of the idea to die off).
    I was thinking more of the Tory backbench MPs, so apols for that. Was not clear.

    The decisions were made both ways without proper debate. And lockdown has to remain a policy option for the future.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,935
    IQ tests - I score great on numbers and logical reasoning and almost dunce on anything to do with shapes and visual.

    Don't know how unusual that is.
  • moonshine said:

    Carnyx said:

    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    What does cake have to do with it? Breaking the law is bad, doesn't have to be cake. The "its just cake" proponents will look like fools when he gets fined for the party where he is pouring the drinks. For the party where he is wearing the party hat. For the party where he is waving the beer bottle at the camera. Where he is pictured belting out Abba on kareoke. We know these all happened and we know the police are processing the ever-larger FPNs he will be slapped with.

    The real issue he has is misleading parliament. Had he said "I've been an idiot, I nearly died, I was reacting to that" he may have got away with it. Instead it "done nothing, only cake, bloody woke remoaners".

    A big 48 hours where we find out if JRM/HY amorality has properly taken root in the New Party.
    He’s not helped when he says as recently as last week that he can’t rule out lockdowns again in the future. No! He should be ruling that out. “The reason I broke the laws is because they were an ass, I apologise for presiding over their implementation and so long as I’m here, we’ll never commit such illiberal evidence free measures into law again”.
    He can't rule that out. Of course he can't. We don't know what diseases might come along - or indeed what covid might do encouraged by the mixing of war and, it looks like, famine.

    Doesn't matter if right wing Tories do a Violet Bott and thream and thream till they're thick. It is simply not possible to make such a promise. In fact, given his reputation, I'm surprised he's not simply doing the easy thing.
    Dunno why you think I’ll a right wing Tory. But it’s a simple fact that many measures were implemented over the two year period without any proper debate about the costs and benefits. Equally true for measures that they failed to implement. Your response confirms in my mind that lockdown policies were the biggest own goal to Western civilisation since 1914 and it’s going to take many decades to cure it (I.e. for the fiercest backers of the idea to die off).
    Sweden ruled out lockdowns on a matter of principle and got through the pandemic just fine.

    We should never again tolerate our fundamental liberties being stolen like that again. It was a horrendous mistake in hindsight.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,071
    Fpt

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    CatMan said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Macron's campaign has released a video using Stoke-on-Trent as a warning of what might happen to France if Le Pen is elected.

    https://twitter.com/Macron2022/status/1516045565058072585

    Of course Stoke didn't become like that because of Brexit, it voted for Brexit because it had become like that.
    Less to do with Brexit and more that Stoke is a dump and people can’t escape quickly enough .
    I had a girlfriend from Stoke, once. Very pretty elfin blonde. Helen

    Worked in the record biz

    I have never met someone so desperately keen NOT to ever return to their hometown
    My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
    Here's a prediction: until the Left stops insulting places like Stoke-on-Trent they'll never win power again.
    Here's another prediction: unless this government starts successfully "levelling-up" places like Stoke-on Trent they won't get re-elected.
    Is it a government thing though? I'm very far from convinced that it is. Stoke or other places are treated the same as far more prosperous areas after all. It's almost like a sort of local malaise that affects some areas. If government action can solve it then I'd be the first to support that, but I think there's something else going on, and I've no idea what it is. (Perhaps a loss of pride? Stoke was once world reknown)
    Do you really think the decline of the “North” (yes I know Stoke is in the Midlands) can be attributed to a “loss of pride”?
    I don't know. Perhaps. There's something that happens to regons which isn't about state funding, isn't about transport, and probably isn't about eductation.
    See my post. It’s precisely about those things, plus autonomy.
    I really don't see it GW. There's something else. The magic mustard. The more I think about it the more I think it is to do with something like pride.
    It's a fair point that you can't do regeneration just on the basis of civic pride. And if that is what levelling up turns out to be, it will be flogging a dead horse. But a lot of the great urban regenerations have had it as part of the mix.
    Pride comes from autonomy.

    Successful regeneration (or just generation) comes from local decision makers and local stakeholders with the means to make local decisions around a shared vision.

    That’s pride-in-action.
    Why do I get the feeling that this is

    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    CatMan said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Macron's campaign has released a video using Stoke-on-Trent as a warning of what might happen to France if Le Pen is elected.

    https://twitter.com/Macron2022/status/1516045565058072585

    Of course Stoke didn't become like that because of Brexit, it voted for Brexit because it had become like that.
    Less to do with Brexit and more that Stoke is a dump and people can’t escape quickly enough .
    I had a girlfriend from Stoke, once. Very pretty elfin blonde. Helen

    Worked in the record biz

    I have never met someone so desperately keen NOT to ever return to their hometown
    My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
    Here's a prediction: until the Left stops insulting places like Stoke-on-Trent they'll never win power again.
    Here's another prediction: unless this government starts successfully "levelling-up" places like Stoke-on Trent they won't get re-elected.
    Is it a government thing though? I'm very far from convinced that it is. Stoke or other places are treated the same as far more prosperous areas after all. It's almost like a sort of local malaise that affects some areas. If government action can solve it then I'd be the first to support that, but I think there's something else going on, and I've no idea what it is. (Perhaps a loss of pride? Stoke was once world reknown)
    Do you really think the decline of the “North” (yes I know Stoke is in the Midlands) can be attributed to a “loss of pride”?
    There's a chunk of that, I reckon. Places that were somewhere, that were damn good at what they did, but they lose their purpose. Heck, I grew up in a place a bit like that in a different part of the country. Partly, the money that was coming stops, and that shows. But also, there's the emotional kick, the difficulty of working out what the place is for next. And in some (maybe many) cases, the answer is "not much", or "something a lot less profitable than before".

    It needn't last forever, but it's painful while it lasts. And civic pride (alongside investment in infrastructure and retraining) is part of the mix of getting over the gap.
    Yes, but the loss of pride follows the economic decline, not so much the other way round.

    As Leon goes on to relate, Britain has an awful lot of these places as a result of industrialising early and densely.

    I could go on, but I feel I’ve written a lot about this before. The only thing that matters is how to fix it.

    Essentially the answers are:

    1. Autonomy
    2. Infrastructure
    3. Skills

    The first seems to be anathema to British tradition, and 2 and 3 require money - lots of it and over a long term, too.

    It’s possible. East Germany is the leading example. Even there, the places have suffered a lot of depopulation, but at least those that are left are now wealthier than much of the UK.
    I applaud your desire to fix places like Stoke, but I think your 1, 2, and 3 are well wide of the mark.

    Wales and Scotland have autonomy, and a fairly significant financial bonus to go with it (obviously not something that every proposed autonomous region can have, as by definition, everyone cannot have 'more'.),and they still have 'Stokes' and plenty of them.

    Infrastructure is fine, but if somewhere is a jobless dive, all infrastructure does is make it easier to get out, a bit like all HS2 would have done is provide a bigger commuter base for London.

    Skills, likewise, whilst helpful, improve areas. Very little point in having skills, with nowhere to put them to use.

    To me, those are just the old, tried and failed solutions.

    My 1, 2, and 3 of post-industrial regeneration would be as follows I think.

    1. Reindustrialisation. The best thing to do in a former coal mining town is mine coal. The best thing to do in a former fishing town is fish. The best thing to do in a boot making town is make boots. This is just a statement of the obvious really. Communities have gathered around these jobs. It's unlikely that they are all going to find work as trendy Web designers, though the possibility should of course not be dismissed. What will work is provably going to be fairly close to what worked before.

    2. Carrot and stick tax incentives. Enterprise zones with lower taxes to start new businesses. Higher taxes on landlords with run-down high street property portfolios and developers sitting on land.

    3. Onshoring. Government should use its influence to on-shore as much business as possible. Call-centres. Manufacturing. Production of green energy materials and devices.

    That would put a rocket up it.
    Scotland has autonomy and some fiscal clout.
    Wales has less.

    Glasgow and Cardiff, which is where the wealth must be created, have none.

    Also, both Executives have generally bought into the UK ideology that money should be spent on social care rather than infrastructure and priming wealth creation.

    Transport spending is - or should be - about making it easier for a labour pool to access jobs (and vice versa) not making it “easier to get out”.

    As to your idea to “bring back coal mining”, it is totally batshit. Do you think South Korea should give up shipbuilding and auto and revert to fishing or whatever they did before?
    I am not suggesting that any country that has developed along different lines and is doing well should move back. But I am suggesting it may be worth considering in some cases where there is long term, structural unemployment caused by dead or dying industries. Sometimes (like with most coal mining), this cannot happen, but sometimes it can and should.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,045
    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    Guto has to earn his salary I suppose but for Joe and all those in other countries scratching their heads here's the unabridged version

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/19/1000-days-of-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-proroguing-parliament-partygate
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,256
    kinabalu said:

    I want everyone to know have a very high QI.

    Some people quite excited about a racial component to it, I note with interest.
    Americans mostly, who have a bad habit of seeing race in everything when social class is a better marker.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,995
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    No, you are not alone in missing the whole point.

    Not about cake. About entitlement, hypocrisy, lying to parliament. About fitness for high office.
    And criminal behaviour. That's actually quite important.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,738
    kinabalu said:

    I want everyone to know have a very high QI.

    Some people quite excited about a racial component to it, I note with interest.
    I think you missed the 'joke' in my post. ;)
  • darkage said:

    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    My view of this is that it will only be a big problem if Johnson decides to go to court over the fines. If he just pays them, then he will get away with it on the basis that it is part of his unique political style. He has basically been saved by the war in Ukraine, it has completely overshadowed COVID, and a lot of people understandably struggle to come to terms with this reality and the injustice of it.

    With regard to the 'Rwanda' border policy, I don't think people really understand the detail of it. It is the usual thing where oppositions complain about the 'injustice' of a policy whilst proposing zero alternatives. If it works ok, and gets going, then the government will probably ultimately get some credit for it, particularly if it sorts out the illegal boat crossing problem. It will be a case of the government being the 'do-ers' and leading public opinion. Again this will feel like an enormous injustice to those that oppose it, but such is politics.
    We're about to become the thing we oppose - people traffickers. We're going to detail people and deport them to Rwanda where we claim our obligations to these people ends. They can choose to claim asylum in Rwanda, or leave, or die - we simply don't care.

    As detail comes out as to just how little we give a fuck about these people, I can't see how this becomes a vote winner for the Tories, just as the "deport people" policy never was for the New Party's precursors in the BNP. Iain Dale's reaction live on air was instructive and he's far from being an isolated case.

    Simple reality - this won't solve the boats problem. Once dumped in Rwanda the ones seeking the west will simply leave. And come back - as the Home Office have pointed out. Nor can we or do we catch all the boats. Nor are there "zero alternatives" to this - the government refuses to co-operate internationally because of Brexit and refuses to go after scum employers because exploitation of labour is exactly what the JRM Singapore-on-Thames wing of the party had in mind for Brexit.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    Guto has to earn his salary I suppose but for Joe and all those in other countries scratching their heads here's the unabridged version

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/19/1000-days-of-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-proroguing-parliament-partygate
    The Guardian - Roger's sense of what is an unbiased source rises to the surface again.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    kjh said:

    As I mentioned last night there are so many variables that impact the differences in IQ scores between nations and races to make any results meaningless. No one other than a racist could possibly believe that so many poor countries have low scores because they are stupid.

    @Leon claims Jews are super bright and proof is in the Nobel prizes won and anyone not accepting this is an idiot. Needless to say there is plenty of literature out there explaining the phenomenon that Leon decided to ignore about guess what, the other variables in play that impacted Jewish performance in society in the last century.

    It might be worth Leon applying his same logic by comparing Swedes to women, because that implies Swedes are substantially more intelligent than women. Obvious nonsense.

    @Leon and @HYUFD regularly demonstrate that just because you read something it doesn't make it correct or if it is jump to an unfounded simple reason for it.

    I've always thought that IQ is one of many ways you can measure intelligence. Also that you can easily improve your score by practicing. It is of dubious merit as a tool of selection, either academic selection, or for employment. It is the usual human process where people start believing in something and don't want to hear any objection. It can be witnessed with proponents like Jordan Peterson. IQ testing probably has some limited use but is not the answer to everything.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,007

    kjh said:

    As I mentioned last night there are so many variables that impact the differences in IQ scores between nations and races to make any results meaningless. No one other than a racist could possibly believe that so many poor countries have low scores because they are stupid.

    @Leon claims Jews are super bright and proof is in the Nobel prizes won and anyone not accepting this is an idiot. Needless to say there is plenty of literature out there explaining the phenomenon that Leon decided to ignore about guess what, the other variables in play that impacted Jewish performance in society in the last century.

    It might be worth Leon applying his same logic by comparing Swedes to women, because that implies Swedes are substantially more intelligent than women. Obvious nonsense.

    @Leon and @HYUFD regularly demonstrate that just because you read something it doesn't make it correct or if it is jump to an unfounded simple reason for it.

    Hopefully you're referring to the nationality, not the vegetable of the brassica genus.
    Yes, but no doubt they could find a paper proving it was also true for the vegetable as well, after all it can't be a coincidence that there is only one letter difference between genus and genius. That must be relevant surely?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    No, you are not alone in missing the whole point.

    Not about cake. About entitlement, hypocrisy, lying to parliament. About fitness for high office.
    If it was a Labour politician, you would be telling us about why it's different, doesn't matter etc.

    You don't hold principles, you hold sides.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,335
    kinabalu said:

    I want everyone to know have a very high QI.

    Some people quite excited about a racial component to it, I note with interest.
    As I said last night Jews have the highest verbal reasoning scores and East Asians the highest numerical reasoning scores, as pretty much all IQ scores prove.

    Denying that is just denying fact
  • MrEd said:

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    Guto has to earn his salary I suppose but for Joe and all those in other countries scratching their heads here's the unabridged version

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/19/1000-days-of-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-proroguing-parliament-partygate
    The Guardian - Roger's sense of what is an unbiased source rises to the surface again.
    Do you dispute the events listed? The most biased of source can still report the facts - even GBeebies and Fox News and Morning Star report "x has happened in place y involving z" before adding layers of spin as to why its all the fault of a.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,502
    Beaten by wordle.
    First ever loss.
    Devastated.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,335

    Covfefe said:

    There’s a Federal election in Australia in a few weeks’ time (May 21). In the past week, the opposition leader has revealed himself to be more gaffe-prone than Biden, the polls have moved and the betting market has shifted dramatically. Could there be an article here?

    Looks like 2019 again and Morrison is doing better/less badly on the personal ratings as HYUFD has pointed out.
    I’m sticking with the opposition win on this one. The 2pp is still a huge swing on last time.

    At the moment.
    No it isn't, the 2PP polls had Labor ahead in 2019 too and were completely wrong.

    Labor's 2PP lead has also fallen as well as its primary lead to almost nothing as Morrison has extended his preferred PM lead
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,637
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    I want everyone to know have a very high QI.

    Some people quite excited about a racial component to it, I note with interest.
    As I said last night Jews have the highest verbal reasoning scores and East Asians the highest numerical reasoning scores, as pretty much all IQ scores prove.

    Denying that is just denying fact
    Doesn't make then genetic or racial.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,502
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Three Chinese Covid deaths acknowledged in Shanghai presumably the tip of the iceberg. Each with underlying health issues.

    As well as a poor domestic vaccine, does China have any of the medicines that have come online for us in the West in the past year or so - ones that have dramatically assisted outcomes when people are hospitalised? If not - poor buggers.

    We should be sending these to China - whilst reminding them that their friends really are not in Moscow.

    https://apnews.com/article/covid-business-health-china-shanghai-8a87e198bccadd93d3788b315bc410bf

    Yes, China needs to accept the need to lose face on vaccines, and get their hands on a billion of the Western jabs as soon as possible.

    There’s plenty of capacity, now that all we are doing in the West is follow ups with the elderly, and children as they become of age to receive them.
    The Pfizer vaccine is manufactured in China, for use in Hong Kong and other places... but is not approved in China itself.
    Can’t they just do what they normally do? Nick the IP and stick a Chinese flag on the box? Really we should be falling over ourselves to encourage them to do this
    It will take huge subtlety.
    It is all about the guanxi.
    Or "face" as we call it.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    darkage said:

    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    My view of this is that it will only be a big problem if Johnson decides to go to court over the fines. If he just pays them, then he will get away with it on the basis that it is part of his unique political style. He has basically been saved by the war in Ukraine, it has completely overshadowed COVID, and a lot of people understandably struggle to come to terms with this reality and the injustice of it.

    With regard to the 'Rwanda' border policy, I don't think people really understand the detail of it. It is the usual thing where oppositions complain about the 'injustice' of a policy whilst proposing zero alternatives. If it works ok, and gets going, then the government will probably ultimately get some credit for it, particularly if it sorts out the illegal boat crossing problem. It will be a case of the government being the 'do-ers' and leading public opinion. Again this will feel like an enormous injustice to those that oppose it, but such is politics.
    We're about to become the thing we oppose - people traffickers. We're going to detail people and deport them to Rwanda where we claim our obligations to these people ends. They can choose to claim asylum in Rwanda, or leave, or die - we simply don't care.

    As detail comes out as to just how little we give a fuck about these people, I can't see how this becomes a vote winner for the Tories, just as the "deport people" policy never was for the New Party's precursors in the BNP. Iain Dale's reaction live on air was instructive and he's far from being an isolated case.

    Simple reality - this won't solve the boats problem. Once dumped in Rwanda the ones seeking the west will simply leave. And come back - as the Home Office have pointed out. Nor can we or do we catch all the boats. Nor are there "zero alternatives" to this - the government refuses to co-operate internationally because of Brexit and refuses to go after scum employers because exploitation of labour is exactly what the JRM Singapore-on-Thames wing of the party had in mind for Brexit.
    Yeah ok. I don't like it either. But what is the alternative solution exactly?
    If the concern is the safety of the people making the trip on dinghies, do we put on ferries to make the trip safe? And how many millions per year do we accept in to the UK to pursue their claims here? If we are at 1,000 per day under the current situation, that is the population of a large town coming to the UK every year. How long can that go on for?

    The brutal logic is that if you make the trip by small boat impossible, then people will stop using this route. In the absence of any other solution, this may be effective.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,007
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    I want everyone to know have a very high QI.

    Some people quite excited about a racial component to it, I note with interest.
    As I said last night Jews have the highest verbal reasoning scores and East Asians the highest numerical reasoning scores, as pretty much all IQ scores prove.

    Denying that is just denying fact
    So you ignore all the evidence that show it isn't a fact and that other variables are in play or do you also believe that Nepal has an average IQ of 43 which makes the average person from Nepal literally an idiot which is plainly nonsense.

    Do you also ignore the evidence I and @rcs1000 gave you about how anyone can be trained to perform 20 points better on an IQ test in the UK or USA.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,679
    dixiedean said:

    Beaten by wordle.
    First ever loss.
    Devastated.

    How many guesses did you get at the XOXOOO stage? My partner and I both failed, with 8 distinct guesses between us!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,502
    HYUFD said:

    Covfefe said:

    There’s a Federal election in Australia in a few weeks’ time (May 21). In the past week, the opposition leader has revealed himself to be more gaffe-prone than Biden, the polls have moved and the betting market has shifted dramatically. Could there be an article here?

    Looks like 2019 again and Morrison is doing better/less badly on the personal ratings as HYUFD has pointed out.
    I’m sticking with the opposition win on this one. The 2pp is still a huge swing on last time.

    At the moment.
    No it isn't, the 2PP polls had Labor ahead in 2019 too and were completely wrong.

    Labor's 2PP lead has also fallen as well as its primary lead to almost nothing as Morrison has extended his preferred PM lead
    The big question is have they changed the methodology which contributed to the miss last time?
    I'd be surprised if they haven't.
    A miss last time doesn't mean another one in the same direction.
    Nor does it mean there won't be an overcorrection or an inadequate one.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,152
    Thank-you for the piece, @Cyclefree .

    I think there's another side to this debate which we need to be aware of in addition to investigtion / compensation, prevention - why is sodium valproate still prescribed to women who are pregnant? What is the justification? And how are risks balanced?

    AIUI in 2018 when it was put in the same category as thalidomide (which is still prescribed, I have not checked whether to women planning a pregnancy), anyone being prescribed the drug is required to be on a Pregnancy Prevention Programme.
    (https://www.rpharms.com/Portals/0/RPS document library/Open access/Support/Valproate safe supply - community pharmacy FINAL.PDF)

    This is strong enough that 2 forms of contraception - including one not being 'user dependent', such as an implant, are required to be in use.




  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,007
    edited April 2022
    darkage said:

    kjh said:

    As I mentioned last night there are so many variables that impact the differences in IQ scores between nations and races to make any results meaningless. No one other than a racist could possibly believe that so many poor countries have low scores because they are stupid.

    @Leon claims Jews are super bright and proof is in the Nobel prizes won and anyone not accepting this is an idiot. Needless to say there is plenty of literature out there explaining the phenomenon that Leon decided to ignore about guess what, the other variables in play that impacted Jewish performance in society in the last century.

    It might be worth Leon applying his same logic by comparing Swedes to women, because that implies Swedes are substantially more intelligent than women. Obvious nonsense.

    @Leon and @HYUFD regularly demonstrate that just because you read something it doesn't make it correct or if it is jump to an unfounded simple reason for it.

    I've always thought that IQ is one of many ways you can measure intelligence. Also that you can easily improve your score by practicing. It is of dubious merit as a tool of selection, either academic selection, or for employment. It is the usual human process where people start believing in something and don't want to hear any objection. It can be witnessed with proponents like Jordan Peterson. IQ testing probably has some limited use but is not the answer to everything.
    I agree completely. I do not dismiss them out of hand. As mentioned yesterday I was heavily involved with them many decades ago for selection purposes. It is the irrational stuff @Leon on and @HYUFD post on IQ object to.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,985
    dixiedean said:

    Beaten by wordle.
    First ever loss.
    Devastated.

    Snap. Gutted.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:

    Beaten by wordle.
    First ever loss.
    Devastated.

    This one?

    Wordle 304 2/6

    ⬜⬜⬜🟩🟨
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,601
    Leon said:

    I think it is fake. Apologies!

    Lol, lol, lol
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,738
    dixiedean said:

    Beaten by wordle.
    First ever loss.
    Devastated.

    I did it in 5. ;)

    Which shows just how random it can be.

    Wordle 304 5/6

    ⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜
    🟨⬜⬜⬜🟨
    ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
    ⬜🟩⬜⬜🟨
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,293
    edited April 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone think Kamala Harris might be value at about 14/1 for next US president?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/usa-presidential-election-2024/election-winner-betting-1.176878927

    Yes. Biden is not a well man.
    This market is not next president though, just in case you didn't realise. It is 2024 winner.

    If Biden has to be persuaded to retire early she still has to beat Trump/Pallin in 2024 for pay out.



  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited April 2022
    Ms Cyclefree,

    I hesitate to step into a minefield but sodium valproate was known to be toxic many years ago. I can't date the discovery of known teratogenicity but I suspect it was many years ago too.

    All drugs are toxic, and Paracelsus - the original toxicologist - stated centuries ago a truism. "The dose makes the poison," In high doses, oxygen is toxic, as is water. However, the risk/benefit ratio may mean they can still be used with precautions. That is up to the prescriber. In the UK - the GP. Very occasionally, it can he consultant-only. This isn't like the case of thalidomide - testing is much more through nowadays. I'm not medically qualified, but spent half my career in the pharmaceutical industry searching for toxicity in new drug entities

    However, it is up to the medical people to decide the usage. Sodium valproate is very effective at what it does. But Medics err on the side of caution. Despite this, no one is 100% accurate all the time. I'm not suggesting mistakes are never made, but newspaper headlines of 'scandal' are always thrown around. It may be a scandal - I don't know. But it's not unknown for newspapers to spice up their articles.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,502
    mwadams said:

    dixiedean said:

    Beaten by wordle.
    First ever loss.
    Devastated.

    How many guesses did you get at the XOXOOO stage? My partner and I both failed, with 8 distinct guesses between us!
    Only two I'm afraid. Could see numerous options like yourself. Error was made earlier when I had the three letters all in the wrong place. Should have ignored them and gone for 5 unused common letters next.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,975
    Good summary of the current situation in the war from the ISW. Pretty skeptical on the likelihood of a Russian breakthrough.

    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-18

    Aren't the Americans biased against Russia though? Well maybe. But remember much of the American analysis before the war was that Russia would win easily.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    The latest defence peddled by the Bozo lapdogs as in Blair got a parking ticket and that’s the same as a FPN for breaking lockdown rules is just going to wind people up .

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,975
    I wonder if a major WW2 style tank battle is on Putin's bucket list?

    Flippant I know.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,502
    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Beaten by wordle.
    First ever loss.
    Devastated.

    This one?

    Wordle 304 2/6

    ⬜⬜⬜🟩🟨
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
    Smartarse.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,841
    dixiedean said:

    mwadams said:

    dixiedean said:

    Beaten by wordle.
    First ever loss.
    Devastated.

    How many guesses did you get at the XOXOOO stage? My partner and I both failed, with 8 distinct guesses between us!
    Only two I'm afraid. Could see numerous options like yourself. Error was made earlier when I had the three letters all in the wrong place. Should have ignored them and gone for 5 unused common letters next.
    Got it in 5. Lucky 2nd guess maybe at the XOXOO stage, but there was only one other option I could see at that stage.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,293

    I wonder if a major WW2 style tank battle is on Putin's bucket list?

    Flippant I know.

    Hopefully we are about to find out how out dated that kind of attack is in the 21st century.

    Gentlemen, to your drones...
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    dixiedean said:

    Beaten by wordle.
    First ever loss.
    Devastated.

    I share your pain ! I started off well and then hit the buffers .
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,841

    dixiedean said:

    mwadams said:

    dixiedean said:

    Beaten by wordle.
    First ever loss.
    Devastated.

    How many guesses did you get at the XOXOOO stage? My partner and I both failed, with 8 distinct guesses between us!
    Only two I'm afraid. Could see numerous options like yourself. Error was made earlier when I had the three letters all in the wrong place. Should have ignored them and gone for 5 unused common letters next.
    Got it in 5. Lucky 2nd guess maybe at the XOXOO stage, but there was only one other option I could see at that stage.
    Edit: Mrs P has just failed having had four XOXOO guesses - not a happy bunny. I think I'll quietly go and hide in the shed.
  • Malcolm Nance, 61 year old American author and intelligence analyst, has joined the Ukrainian International Legion.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_Nance
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,775
    https://twitter.com/ninja998998/status/1513420781073489922?s=21&t=nQ5-6DmLJUWs4NMEPnjgjA

    Did this video get posted yet? A tear down of a Russian drone, showing it to be made of a camera sold in Dixons and a fuel tank made from an Evian bottle.

    Lots of thoughts spring to mind. “Does the US budget really need to be so high?” being one.

    Closely followed by “how can anyone argue with a straight face that the supersonic novel propulsion UAP might be Russian?”.

    Finally “Is a Black Sea Kursk disaster just a matter of time?”.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,045
    Brandon Lewis in another car crash interview on Radio 4. I thought Corbyn's mob took a lot of beating but I think Johnson's are giving them a run for their money. "Lots of Prime Minister's have fixed penalty tickets" says Brandon
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,239
    Omnium said:

    dixiedean said:

    Beaten by wordle.
    First ever loss.
    Devastated.

    Snap. Gutted.
    And me. Could have been a 4.

    74 goes/first defeat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,335
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Covfefe said:

    There’s a Federal election in Australia in a few weeks’ time (May 21). In the past week, the opposition leader has revealed himself to be more gaffe-prone than Biden, the polls have moved and the betting market has shifted dramatically. Could there be an article here?

    Looks like 2019 again and Morrison is doing better/less badly on the personal ratings as HYUFD has pointed out.
    I’m sticking with the opposition win on this one. The 2pp is still a huge swing on last time.

    At the moment.
    No it isn't, the 2PP polls had Labor ahead in 2019 too and were completely wrong.

    Labor's 2PP lead has also fallen as well as its primary lead to almost nothing as Morrison has extended his preferred PM lead
    The big question is have they changed the methodology which contributed to the miss last time?
    I'd be surprised if they haven't.
    A miss last time doesn't mean another one in the same direction.
    Nor does it mean there won't be an overcorrection or an inadequate one.
    Last time it was the Preferred PM figures that were correct, the 2PP numbers were miles off.

    Given again there is such a distortion between the 2 any methodology changes have been minor at most
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,335
    edited April 2022
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    I want everyone to know have a very high QI.

    Some people quite excited about a racial component to it, I note with interest.
    As I said last night Jews have the highest verbal reasoning scores and East Asians the highest numerical reasoning scores, as pretty much all IQ scores prove.

    Denying that is just denying fact
    So you ignore all the evidence that show it isn't a fact and that other variables are in play or do you also believe that Nepal has an average IQ of 43 which makes the average person from Nepal literally an idiot which is plainly nonsense.

    Do you also ignore the evidence I and @rcs1000 gave you about how anyone can be trained to perform 20 points better on an IQ test in the UK or USA.
    We know you have an ideological agenda against IQ tests yes.

    Even a 20 point improvement would not bridge the average 47 IQ points gap between say Japan and Mali

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/average-iq-by-country
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,985
    Stocky said:

    Omnium said:

    dixiedean said:

    Beaten by wordle.
    First ever loss.
    Devastated.

    Snap. Gutted.
    And me. Could have been a 4.

    74 goes/first defeat.
    First loss in 58 for me. A small consolation was that I got quordle in 6 - first time I've done that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,587
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    My view of this is that it will only be a big problem if Johnson decides to go to court over the fines. If he just pays them, then he will get away with it on the basis that it is part of his unique political style. He has basically been saved by the war in Ukraine, it has completely overshadowed COVID, and a lot of people understandably struggle to come to terms with this reality and the injustice of it.

    With regard to the 'Rwanda' border policy, I don't think people really understand the detail of it. It is the usual thing where oppositions complain about the 'injustice' of a policy whilst proposing zero alternatives. If it works ok, and gets going, then the government will probably ultimately get some credit for it, particularly if it sorts out the illegal boat crossing problem. It will be a case of the government being the 'do-ers' and leading public opinion. Again this will feel like an enormous injustice to those that oppose it, but such is politics.
    We're about to become the thing we oppose - people traffickers. We're going to detail people and deport them to Rwanda where we claim our obligations to these people ends. They can choose to claim asylum in Rwanda, or leave, or die - we simply don't care.

    As detail comes out as to just how little we give a fuck about these people, I can't see how this becomes a vote winner for the Tories, just as the "deport people" policy never was for the New Party's precursors in the BNP. Iain Dale's reaction live on air was instructive and he's far from being an isolated case.

    Simple reality - this won't solve the boats problem. Once dumped in Rwanda the ones seeking the west will simply leave. And come back - as the Home Office have pointed out. Nor can we or do we catch all the boats. Nor are there "zero alternatives" to this - the government refuses to co-operate internationally because of Brexit and refuses to go after scum employers because exploitation of labour is exactly what the JRM Singapore-on-Thames wing of the party had in mind for Brexit.
    Yeah ok. I don't like it either. But what is the alternative solution exactly?
    If the concern is the safety of the people making the trip on dinghies, do we put on ferries to make the trip safe? And how many millions per year do we accept in to the UK to pursue their claims here? If we are at 1,000 per day under the current situation, that is the population of a large town coming to the UK every year. How long can that go on for?

    The brutal logic is that if you make the trip by small boat impossible, then people will stop using this route. In the absence of any other solution, this may be effective.
    This scheme doesn't make crossings impossible, though, does it ?

    The ones best placed to make crossings difficult are the French. If we have them a real incentive - for example agreeing to take a given number of asylum seekers from France for a given reduction in boat crossings - we might begin to address the issue without breaching our international treaty obligations.

    As it is, we are massively less generous than large parts of Europe in the numbers of refugees we accept - and palming off our obligations on a country a fraction of our size which is both far poorer and more overcrowded than we are is utterly immoral.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,073
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    Sandpit said:

    Glad it’s not just me!

    Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/

    She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.

    “There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.

    “Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.

    “The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”

    My view of this is that it will only be a big problem if Johnson decides to go to court over the fines. If he just pays them, then he will get away with it on the basis that it is part of his unique political style. He has basically been saved by the war in Ukraine, it has completely overshadowed COVID, and a lot of people understandably struggle to come to terms with this reality and the injustice of it.

    With regard to the 'Rwanda' border policy, I don't think people really understand the detail of it. It is the usual thing where oppositions complain about the 'injustice' of a policy whilst proposing zero alternatives. If it works ok, and gets going, then the government will probably ultimately get some credit for it, particularly if it sorts out the illegal boat crossing problem. It will be a case of the government being the 'do-ers' and leading public opinion. Again this will feel like an enormous injustice to those that oppose it, but such is politics.
    We're about to become the thing we oppose - people traffickers. We're going to detail people and deport them to Rwanda where we claim our obligations to these people ends. They can choose to claim asylum in Rwanda, or leave, or die - we simply don't care.

    As detail comes out as to just how little we give a fuck about these people, I can't see how this becomes a vote winner for the Tories, just as the "deport people" policy never was for the New Party's precursors in the BNP. Iain Dale's reaction live on air was instructive and he's far from being an isolated case.

    Simple reality - this won't solve the boats problem. Once dumped in Rwanda the ones seeking the west will simply leave. And come back - as the Home Office have pointed out. Nor can we or do we catch all the boats. Nor are there "zero alternatives" to this - the government refuses to co-operate internationally because of Brexit and refuses to go after scum employers because exploitation of labour is exactly what the JRM Singapore-on-Thames wing of the party had in mind for Brexit.
    Yeah ok. I don't like it either. But what is the alternative solution exactly?
    If the concern is the safety of the people making the trip on dinghies, do we put on ferries to make the trip safe? And how many millions per year do we accept in to the UK to pursue their claims here? If we are at 1,000 per day under the current situation, that is the population of a large town coming to the UK every year. How long can that go on for?

    The brutal logic is that if you make the trip by small boat impossible, then people will stop using this route. In the absence of any other solution, this may be effective.
    It is a masterstroke by Patel, doubly so with her response: "what would you do" (to which there are few answers).

    I think going after the employers must surely be among the top alternatives. I also think I would prefer to process asylum seekers/refugees in the UK rather than Rwanda. It is not beyond the wit of man or remit of govt to ensure that they are processed safely (for the applicant and, by keeping them from "disappearing" into society, for society) before being granted asylum or via enforced return.

    Would it be expensive? Yes. Would it tick the boxes of the UK taking responsibility for handling refugees in a safe, controlled and effective manner? Yes also. I think the public might tolerate the govt spending money in such a way. It would also create jobs in the UK. Why I can see the slogan right now - UK asylum processing jobs for UK asylum processing workers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,256
    moonshine said:

    https://twitter.com/ninja998998/status/1513420781073489922?s=21&t=nQ5-6DmLJUWs4NMEPnjgjA

    Did this video get posted yet? A tear down of a Russian drone, showing it to be made of a camera sold in Dixons and a fuel tank made from an Evian bottle.

    Lots of thoughts spring to mind. “Does the US budget really need to be so high?” being one.

    Closely followed by “how can anyone argue with a straight face that the supersonic novel propulsion UAP might be Russian?”.

    Finally “Is a Black Sea Kursk disaster just a matter of time?”.

    That’s rather amusing. Presumably they need to get a bigger Evian bottle - if it landed intact, it likely ran out of fuel.

    As for the “Black Sea Kursk Disaster”, that was last week’s news in Russia. A sailor with a cigarette apparently, then one thing leads to another, and before you know it you’ve got a 12,000 tonne submarine and 450 missing seamen.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,587
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    I want everyone to know have a very high QI.

    Some people quite excited about a racial component to it, I note with interest.
    As I said last night Jews have the highest verbal reasoning scores and East Asians the highest numerical reasoning scores, as pretty much all IQ scores prove.

    Denying that is just denying fact
    So you ignore all the evidence that show it isn't a fact and that other variables are in play or do you also believe that Nepal has an average IQ of 43 which makes the average person from Nepal literally an idiot which is plainly nonsense.

    Do you also ignore the evidence I and @rcs1000 gave you about how anyone can be trained to perform 20 points better on an IQ test in the UK or USA.
    We know you have an ideological agenda against IQ tests yes.

    Even a 20 point improvement would not bridge the average 47 IQ points gap between say Japan and Mali

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/average-iq-by-country
    We know you are ideologically flexible in as far as meeting the requirement of supporting any and all Tory leaders when in post, but that doesn't make you free from ideology, either.
This discussion has been closed.