The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.
The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable
I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows
Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.
Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.
So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France
A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?
It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be
The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin
There are no Putins in mainstream French politics. Lets hope that there are forevermore no Putins anywhere.
Putin is just an end stage in a progression - the madness of power multiplied by a lunatic ideology multiplied by the belief (it seems) in an existential threat.
As Josiah Bartlett said “they weren’t born to hate”.
They learned it on the way….
America is much more worrying than France. America really is horrifically polarised, and has come close to hard rightwing revolution in the last 2 years. And neither side seems willing to compromise one iota
That's the thing with the US. It has many virtues but I don't think they like compromise too much.
Really worth reading that excellent Jonathan Haidt article in the Atlantic, linked many times already, but here it is again
Social media exacerbates divisions and polarities (and is being easily exploited by our enemies to deepen these divisions). Twitter et al sends both Left and Right quite mad with mutual hatred, and it is difficult to plot a way back to sanity. We have to hope America can do it, before something truly tragic occurs
You are right. I agree with that completely, but don't you get the irony of the fact that you go off the deep end over and over again. You are one of the people sent mad by hatred, yet you seem to think it is others, but who really aren't.
"‘An undebatable political decision’: Why China refuses to end its harsh lockdowns Still not fully prepared for living with the virus, the government is sticking to “zero COVID”"
There’s a Federal election in Australia in a few weeks’ time (May 21). In the past week, the opposition leader has revealed himself to be more gaffe-prone than Biden, the polls have moved and the betting market has shifted dramatically. Could there be an article here?
There’s a Federal election in Australia in a few weeks’ time (May 21). In the past week, the opposition leader has revealed himself to be more gaffe-prone than Biden, the polls have moved and the betting market has shifted dramatically. Could there be an article here?
Looks like 2019 again and Morrison is doing better/less badly on the personal ratings as HYUFD has pointed out.
There’s a Federal election in Australia in a few weeks’ time (May 21). In the past week, the opposition leader has revealed himself to be more gaffe-prone than Biden, the polls have moved and the betting market has shifted dramatically. Could there be an article here?
There’s a Federal election in Australia in a few weeks’ time (May 21). In the past week, the opposition leader has revealed himself to be more gaffe-prone than Biden, the polls have moved and the betting market has shifted dramatically. Could there be an article here?
Looks like 2019 again and Morrison is doing better/less badly on the personal ratings as HYUFD has pointed out.
I’m sticking with the opposition win on this one. The 2pp is still a huge swing on last time.
There’s a Federal election in Australia in a few weeks’ time (May 21). In the past week, the opposition leader has revealed himself to be more gaffe-prone than Biden, the polls have moved and the betting market has shifted dramatically. Could there be an article here?
Question in Australia is NOT whether Anthony Albanese is more gaffe-prone than Joe Biden, but whether he's LESS gaffe-prone than Scott Morrison.
That market is to win the 2024 election, not to be the next president, so it does not cover President Biden standing down early for health reasons and Harris taking over, except that in that case she would probably be unopposed for Democrat nominee.
In the other markets, Harris is 4/1 to be Democrat nominee and the Democrats are 5/4 to win, which implies a little over 10/1 for Harris to win (assuming these are independent which they are not really but it is good enough). So 14/1 (now 13/1) is a touch of value (though per @StuartDickson from a couple of threads back, beware the effect of inflation on your stake and winnings).
That market is to win the 2024 election, not to be the next president, so it does not cover President Biden standing down early for health reasons and Harris taking over, except that in that case she would probably be unopposed for Democrat nominee.
In the other markets, Harris is 4/1 to be Democrat nominee and the Democrats are 5/4 to win, which implies a little over 10/1 for Harris to win (assuming these are independent which they are not really but it is good enough). So 14/1 (now 13/1) is a touch of value (though per @StuartDickson from a couple of threads back, beware the effect of inflation on your stake and winnings).
I think Harris nominee and Dem win diverge quite hard from being independent, firstly because she's not very good, and secondly because health-permitting Biden is more likely to run again if things are going well for the Dems, so Kamala only gets a go if it's a bad situation.
Rwanda genocide orphans ‘told to leave hostel to make room for UK asylum seekers’
If these deportations ever do begin, the sordid details are going to be all over the media. You’d have thought the Tories would at least attempt to shake off the Nasty Party reputation, but they seem hell-bent on reinforcing it. If the party was a person it would have a diagnosis.
Interesting market, but note that it’s the 2024 election winner, not next president (thanks Betfair for the ambiguity).
Ironically, she has a better chance if Biden stands down early, before the next election, leaving her as the incumbent.
Meanwhile, Democrats are trying to work out how to sideline her if Biden stands down at the election. They don’t want her seen as the heir apparent, given her ratings are on the floor. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/democrats-kamala-harris-problem Probably done by Biden getting primaried by Buttegieg
HOW do I know? Because I just took a "test" on the web, that said my IQ was 140 if I could recognize pictures of 10 historical figures.
I got a dozen before I decided to quit showing off!
165. That on a test that was considerably more plausible than recognising photos. But it's all bollocks. I know why I score very well on these tests. It's because they are written exactly to my strengths. Numbers, words, spatial reasoning. I'm good at these things. But intelligence is about connecting the unconnected, or finding a new angle on something; that makes you clever. That kind of raw intelligence is manifested in the purest way in quipping. Yes, hear me out here, I'm dead serious*. Those who can make an joke at the click of a finger without it being some tired old pun that's been done a thousand times, they're the smart ones. Because they can perceive something that's happening right then and there, and connect it to something entirely different, and deliver that connection in a split second. Me? I'm probably below average at that. All those IQ tests are plodding handle-turning exercises that measure SOMETHING, something I'm good at, but it's not intelligence.
*yeah, that was a joke. I think I've proven my point.
That is *part* of intelligence. IQ tests test another part.
But what is intelligence? I've listened to people working in the area have heated debates about how to define intelligence, yet alone how to test for it, or create artificial intelligence. Are there different 'types' of intelligence and, if so, what are they and how are they defined?
According to this Oxford University professor, it requires a two-thirds majority in a parliamentary vote in order to initiate a Finnish NATO application. If true, that profoundly changes the arithmetic and the likelihood.
She'd be excellent value at 14/1 for next US president but that's not what the market says, it's the 2024 election winner.
Sorry for misleading everyone. Maybe they have a separate market for next US president.
It’s Betfair that are misleading. They also have market next UK PM which makes no reference to any elections.
The precise definition of their Next President market was referred to when there were discussions about Trump standing down early, as people piled on Pence without realising the market was for the 2020 election rather than who was actually the next president. As always, the value is usually with “events” not happening.
That the Sun needed to specify men's willies is presumably some sort of argument in the trans debate but I've no idea on which side.
Cry bollocks on this report, The Sun! India is supposedly above the British member, but India needed to have smaller condoms because the international standard sized ones, well, you can imagine....
That the Sun needed to specify men's willies is presumably some sort of argument in the trans debate but I've no idea on which side.
Cry bollocks on this report, The Sun! India is supposedly above the British member, but India needed to have smaller condoms because the international standard sized ones, well, you can imagine....
Three Chinese Covid deaths acknowledged in Shanghai presumably the tip of the iceberg. Each with underlying health issues.
As well as a poor domestic vaccine, does China have any of the medicines that have come online for us in the West in the past year or so - ones that have dramatically assisted outcomes when people are hospitalised? If not - poor buggers.
We should be sending these to China - whilst reminding them that their friends really are not in Moscow.
Swedes being far too nice there. Should really have sent up their own armed jets to force them to land in Sweden.
From what we now know of the poor serviceability affecting the Russian military, taking away four planes and pilots might make a reasonable difference to their capability in Ukraine.
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
Three Chinese Covid deaths acknowledged in Shanghai presumably the tip of the iceberg. Each with underlying health issues.
As well as a poor domestic vaccine, does China have any of the medicines that have come online for us in the West in the past year or so - ones that have dramatically assisted outcomes when people are hospitalised? If not - poor buggers.
We should be sending these to China - whilst reminding them that their friends really are not in Moscow.
That the Sun needed to specify men's willies is presumably some sort of argument in the trans debate but I've no idea on which side.
Cry bollocks on this report, The Sun! India is supposedly above the British member, but India needed to have smaller condoms because the international standard sized ones, well, you can imagine....
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
What does cake have to do with it? Breaking the law is bad, doesn't have to be cake. The "its just cake" proponents will look like fools when he gets fined for the party where he is pouring the drinks. For the party where he is wearing the party hat. For the party where he is waving the beer bottle at the camera. Where he is pictured belting out Abba on kareoke. We know these all happened and we know the police are processing the ever-larger FPNs he will be slapped with.
The real issue he has is misleading parliament. Had he said "I've been an idiot, I nearly died, I was reacting to that" he may have got away with it. Instead it "done nothing, only cake, bloody woke remoaners".
A big 48 hours where we find out if JRM/HY amorality has properly taken root in the New Party.
According to this Oxford University professor, it requires a two-thirds majority in a parliamentary vote in order to initiate a Finnish NATO application. If true, that profoundly changes the arithmetic and the likelihood.
There are only 6 MPs who have come out against it in Finland, as I understand it. The leader of the greens just came out in favour of joining NATO. It seems probable that all the parties will fall in line behind their leaders. Looks to be a similar political process going on in Sweden, albeit a bit slower and less certain.
I think the 'arithmetic and likelihood' will be more affected by the attitude of certain other NATO member states towards the application, as it progresses.
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
What does cake have to do with it? Breaking the law is bad, doesn't have to be cake. The "its just cake" proponents will look like fools when he gets fined for the party where he is pouring the drinks. For the party where he is wearing the party hat. For the party where he is waving the beer bottle at the camera. Where he is pictured belting out Abba on kareoke. We know these all happened and we know the police are processing the ever-larger FPNs he will be slapped with.
The real issue he has is misleading parliament. Had he said "I've been an idiot, I nearly died, I was reacting to that" he may have got away with it. Instead it "done nothing, only cake, bloody woke remoaners".
A big 48 hours where we find out if JRM/HY amorality has properly taken root in the New Party.
He’s not helped when he says as recently as last week that he can’t rule out lockdowns again in the future. No! He should be ruling that out. “The reason I broke the laws is because they were an ass, I apologise for presiding over their implementation and so long as I’m here, we’ll never commit such illiberal evidence free measures into law again”.
Three Chinese Covid deaths acknowledged in Shanghai presumably the tip of the iceberg. Each with underlying health issues.
As well as a poor domestic vaccine, does China have any of the medicines that have come online for us in the West in the past year or so - ones that have dramatically assisted outcomes when people are hospitalised? If not - poor buggers.
We should be sending these to China - whilst reminding them that their friends really are not in Moscow.
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
What does cake have to do with it? Breaking the law is bad, doesn't have to be cake. The "its just cake" proponents will look like fools when he gets fined for the party where he is pouring the drinks. For the party where he is wearing the party hat. For the party where he is waving the beer bottle at the camera. Where he is pictured belting out Abba on kareoke. We know these all happened and we know the police are processing the ever-larger FPNs he will be slapped with.
The real issue he has is misleading parliament. Had he said "I've been an idiot, I nearly died, I was reacting to that" he may have got away with it. Instead it "done nothing, only cake, bloody woke remoaners".
A big 48 hours where we find out if JRM/HY amorality has properly taken root in the New Party.
He’s not helped when he says as recently as last week that he can’t rule out lockdowns again in the future. No! He should be ruling that out. “The reason I broke the laws is because they were an ass, I apologise for presiding over their implementation and so long as I’m here, we’ll never commit such illiberal evidence free measures into law again”.
I wouldn't agree with the proposal but yes, that would be a strategy! The problem with "nothing to see here move along I have a job to do don't you know there is a war on!!!" is that it purports that the PM is the just one, the moral one, and that the people raising cake are the fools.
Its the other way round. The public aren't as stupid as the New party think and they are clearly not going to accept this deflection and move on as ordered.
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
What does cake have to do with it? Breaking the law is bad, doesn't have to be cake. The "its just cake" proponents will look like fools when he gets fined for the party where he is pouring the drinks. For the party where he is wearing the party hat. For the party where he is waving the beer bottle at the camera. Where he is pictured belting out Abba on kareoke. We know these all happened and we know the police are processing the ever-larger FPNs he will be slapped with.
The real issue he has is misleading parliament. Had he said "I've been an idiot, I nearly died, I was reacting to that" he may have got away with it. Instead it "done nothing, only cake, bloody woke remoaners".
A big 48 hours where we find out if JRM/HY amorality has properly taken root in the New Party.
He’s not helped when he says as recently as last week that he can’t rule out lockdowns again in the future. No! He should be ruling that out. “The reason I broke the laws is because they were an ass, I apologise for presiding over their implementation and so long as I’m here, we’ll never commit such illiberal evidence free measures into law again”.
He can't rule that out. Of course he can't. We don't know what diseases might come along - or indeed what covid might do encouraged by the mixing of war and, it looks like, famine.
Doesn't matter if right wing Tories do a Violet Bott and thream and thream till they're thick. It is simply not possible to make such a promise. In fact, given his reputation, I'm surprised he's not simply doing the easy thing.
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
No, you are not alone in missing the whole point.
Not about cake. About entitlement, hypocrisy, lying to parliament. About fitness for high office.
Three Chinese Covid deaths acknowledged in Shanghai presumably the tip of the iceberg. Each with underlying health issues.
As well as a poor domestic vaccine, does China have any of the medicines that have come online for us in the West in the past year or so - ones that have dramatically assisted outcomes when people are hospitalised? If not - poor buggers.
We should be sending these to China - whilst reminding them that their friends really are not in Moscow.
Yes, China needs to accept the need to lose face on vaccines, and get their hands on a billion of the Western jabs as soon as possible.
There’s plenty of capacity, now that all we are doing in the West is follow ups with the elderly, and children as they become of age to receive them.
The Pfizer vaccine is manufactured in China, for use in Hong Kong and other places... but is not approved in China itself.
Can’t they just do what they normally do? Nick the IP and stick a Chinese flag on the box? Really we should be falling over ourselves to encourage them to do this
As I mentioned last night there are so many variables that impact the differences in IQ scores between nations and races to make any results meaningless. No one other than a racist could possibly believe that so many poor countries have low scores because they are stupid.
@Leon claims Jews are super bright and proof is in the Nobel prizes won and anyone not accepting this is an idiot. Needless to say there is plenty of literature out there explaining the phenomenon that Leon decided to ignore about guess what, the other variables in play that impacted Jewish performance in society in the last century.
It might be worth Leon applying his same logic by comparing Swedes to women, because that implies Swedes are substantially more intelligent than women. Obvious nonsense.
@Leon and @HYUFD regularly demonstrate that just because you read something it doesn't make it correct or if it is jump to an unfounded simple reason for it.
That the Sun needed to specify men's willies is presumably some sort of argument in the trans debate but I've no idea on which side.
Cry bollocks on this report, The Sun! India is supposedly above the British member, but India needed to have smaller condoms because the international standard sized ones, well, you can imagine....
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
My view of this is that it will only be a big problem if Johnson decides to go to court over the fines. If he just pays them, then he will get away with it on the basis that it is part of his unique political style. He has basically been saved by the war in Ukraine, it has completely overshadowed COVID, and a lot of people understandably struggle to come to terms with this reality and the injustice of it.
With regard to the 'Rwanda' border policy, I don't think people really understand the detail of it. It is the usual thing where oppositions complain about the 'injustice' of a policy whilst proposing zero alternatives. If it works ok, and gets going, then the government will probably ultimately get some credit for it, particularly if it sorts out the illegal boat crossing problem. It will be a case of the government being the 'do-ers' and leading public opinion. Again this will feel like an enormous injustice to those that oppose it, but such is politics.
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
What does cake have to do with it? Breaking the law is bad, doesn't have to be cake. The "its just cake" proponents will look like fools when he gets fined for the party where he is pouring the drinks. For the party where he is wearing the party hat. For the party where he is waving the beer bottle at the camera. Where he is pictured belting out Abba on kareoke. We know these all happened and we know the police are processing the ever-larger FPNs he will be slapped with.
The real issue he has is misleading parliament. Had he said "I've been an idiot, I nearly died, I was reacting to that" he may have got away with it. Instead it "done nothing, only cake, bloody woke remoaners".
A big 48 hours where we find out if JRM/HY amorality has properly taken root in the New Party.
He’s not helped when he says as recently as last week that he can’t rule out lockdowns again in the future. No! He should be ruling that out. “The reason I broke the laws is because they were an ass, I apologise for presiding over their implementation and so long as I’m here, we’ll never commit such illiberal evidence free measures into law again”.
He can't rule that out. Of course he can't. We don't know what diseases might come along - or indeed what covid might do encouraged by the mixing of war and, it looks like, famine.
Doesn't matter if right wing Tories do a Violet Bott and thream and thream till they're thick. It is simply not possible to make such a promise. In fact, given his reputation, I'm surprised he's not simply doing the easy thing.
Dunno why you think I’ll a right wing Tory. But it’s a simple fact that many measures were implemented over the two year period without any proper debate about the costs and benefits. Equally true for measures that they failed to implement. Your response confirms in my mind that lockdown policies were the biggest own goal to Western civilisation since 1914 and it’s going to take many decades to cure it (I.e. for the fiercest backers of the idea to die off).
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
Bozo supporters working hard today!
Political equivalent of those leaflets from the more marginal animal welfare charities showing a soulful pooch and the accompanying text reading "if you don't donate this lovely puppy gets it". For puppy read Big Dog.
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
What does cake have to do with it? Breaking the law is bad, doesn't have to be cake. The "its just cake" proponents will look like fools when he gets fined for the party where he is pouring the drinks. For the party where he is wearing the party hat. For the party where he is waving the beer bottle at the camera. Where he is pictured belting out Abba on kareoke. We know these all happened and we know the police are processing the ever-larger FPNs he will be slapped with.
The real issue he has is misleading parliament. Had he said "I've been an idiot, I nearly died, I was reacting to that" he may have got away with it. Instead it "done nothing, only cake, bloody woke remoaners".
A big 48 hours where we find out if JRM/HY amorality has properly taken root in the New Party.
If there are more, worse social gatherings our there, "it's just a cake" becomes a damn silly excuse.
But to recognise and act on that would require anticipation of future consequences, and one of BoJo's talents has always been to live in the moment.
As I mentioned last night there are so many variables that impact the differences in IQ scores between nations and races to make any results meaningless. No one other than a racist could possibly believe that so many poor countries have low scores because they are stupid.
@Leon claims Jews are super bright and proof is in the Nobel prizes won and anyone not accepting this is an idiot. Needless to say there is plenty of literature out there explaining the phenomenon that Leon decided to ignore about guess what, the other variables in play that impacted Jewish performance in society in the last century.
It might be worth Leon applying his same logic by comparing Swedes to women, because that implies Swedes are substantially more intelligent than women. Obvious nonsense.
@Leon and @HYUFD regularly demonstrate that just because you read something it doesn't make it correct or if it is jump to an unfounded simple reason for it.
Hopefully you're referring to the nationality, not the vegetable of the brassica genus.
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
What does cake have to do with it? Breaking the law is bad, doesn't have to be cake. The "its just cake" proponents will look like fools when he gets fined for the party where he is pouring the drinks. For the party where he is wearing the party hat. For the party where he is waving the beer bottle at the camera. Where he is pictured belting out Abba on kareoke. We know these all happened and we know the police are processing the ever-larger FPNs he will be slapped with.
The real issue he has is misleading parliament. Had he said "I've been an idiot, I nearly died, I was reacting to that" he may have got away with it. Instead it "done nothing, only cake, bloody woke remoaners".
A big 48 hours where we find out if JRM/HY amorality has properly taken root in the New Party.
He’s not helped when he says as recently as last week that he can’t rule out lockdowns again in the future. No! He should be ruling that out. “The reason I broke the laws is because they were an ass, I apologise for presiding over their implementation and so long as I’m here, we’ll never commit such illiberal evidence free measures into law again”.
He can't rule that out. Of course he can't. We don't know what diseases might come along - or indeed what covid might do encouraged by the mixing of war and, it looks like, famine.
Doesn't matter if right wing Tories do a Violet Bott and thream and thream till they're thick. It is simply not possible to make such a promise. In fact, given his reputation, I'm surprised he's not simply doing the easy thing.
Dunno why you think I’ll a right wing Tory. But it’s a simple fact that many measures were implemented over the two year period without any proper debate about the costs and benefits. Equally true for measures that they failed to implement. Your response confirms in my mind that lockdown policies were the biggest own goal to Western civilisation since 1914 and it’s going to take many decades to cure it (I.e. for the fiercest backers of the idea to die off).
I was thinking more of the Tory backbench MPs, so apols for that. Was not clear.
The decisions were made both ways without proper debate. And lockdown has to remain a policy option for the future.
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
What does cake have to do with it? Breaking the law is bad, doesn't have to be cake. The "its just cake" proponents will look like fools when he gets fined for the party where he is pouring the drinks. For the party where he is wearing the party hat. For the party where he is waving the beer bottle at the camera. Where he is pictured belting out Abba on kareoke. We know these all happened and we know the police are processing the ever-larger FPNs he will be slapped with.
The real issue he has is misleading parliament. Had he said "I've been an idiot, I nearly died, I was reacting to that" he may have got away with it. Instead it "done nothing, only cake, bloody woke remoaners".
A big 48 hours where we find out if JRM/HY amorality has properly taken root in the New Party.
He’s not helped when he says as recently as last week that he can’t rule out lockdowns again in the future. No! He should be ruling that out. “The reason I broke the laws is because they were an ass, I apologise for presiding over their implementation and so long as I’m here, we’ll never commit such illiberal evidence free measures into law again”.
He can't rule that out. Of course he can't. We don't know what diseases might come along - or indeed what covid might do encouraged by the mixing of war and, it looks like, famine.
Doesn't matter if right wing Tories do a Violet Bott and thream and thream till they're thick. It is simply not possible to make such a promise. In fact, given his reputation, I'm surprised he's not simply doing the easy thing.
Dunno why you think I’ll a right wing Tory. But it’s a simple fact that many measures were implemented over the two year period without any proper debate about the costs and benefits. Equally true for measures that they failed to implement. Your response confirms in my mind that lockdown policies were the biggest own goal to Western civilisation since 1914 and it’s going to take many decades to cure it (I.e. for the fiercest backers of the idea to die off).
Sweden ruled out lockdowns on a matter of principle and got through the pandemic just fine.
We should never again tolerate our fundamental liberties being stolen like that again. It was a horrendous mistake in hindsight.
Of course Stoke didn't become like that because of Brexit, it voted for Brexit because it had become like that.
Less to do with Brexit and more that Stoke is a dump and people can’t escape quickly enough .
I had a girlfriend from Stoke, once. Very pretty elfin blonde. Helen
Worked in the record biz
I have never met someone so desperately keen NOT to ever return to their hometown
My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
Here's a prediction: until the Left stops insulting places like Stoke-on-Trent they'll never win power again.
Here's another prediction: unless this government starts successfully "levelling-up" places like Stoke-on Trent they won't get re-elected.
Is it a government thing though? I'm very far from convinced that it is. Stoke or other places are treated the same as far more prosperous areas after all. It's almost like a sort of local malaise that affects some areas. If government action can solve it then I'd be the first to support that, but I think there's something else going on, and I've no idea what it is. (Perhaps a loss of pride? Stoke was once world reknown)
Do you really think the decline of the “North” (yes I know Stoke is in the Midlands) can be attributed to a “loss of pride”?
I don't know. Perhaps. There's something that happens to regons which isn't about state funding, isn't about transport, and probably isn't about eductation.
See my post. It’s precisely about those things, plus autonomy.
I really don't see it GW. There's something else. The magic mustard. The more I think about it the more I think it is to do with something like pride.
It's a fair point that you can't do regeneration just on the basis of civic pride. And if that is what levelling up turns out to be, it will be flogging a dead horse. But a lot of the great urban regenerations have had it as part of the mix.
Pride comes from autonomy.
Successful regeneration (or just generation) comes from local decision makers and local stakeholders with the means to make local decisions around a shared vision.
Of course Stoke didn't become like that because of Brexit, it voted for Brexit because it had become like that.
Less to do with Brexit and more that Stoke is a dump and people can’t escape quickly enough .
I had a girlfriend from Stoke, once. Very pretty elfin blonde. Helen
Worked in the record biz
I have never met someone so desperately keen NOT to ever return to their hometown
My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
Here's a prediction: until the Left stops insulting places like Stoke-on-Trent they'll never win power again.
Here's another prediction: unless this government starts successfully "levelling-up" places like Stoke-on Trent they won't get re-elected.
Is it a government thing though? I'm very far from convinced that it is. Stoke or other places are treated the same as far more prosperous areas after all. It's almost like a sort of local malaise that affects some areas. If government action can solve it then I'd be the first to support that, but I think there's something else going on, and I've no idea what it is. (Perhaps a loss of pride? Stoke was once world reknown)
Do you really think the decline of the “North” (yes I know Stoke is in the Midlands) can be attributed to a “loss of pride”?
There's a chunk of that, I reckon. Places that were somewhere, that were damn good at what they did, but they lose their purpose. Heck, I grew up in a place a bit like that in a different part of the country. Partly, the money that was coming stops, and that shows. But also, there's the emotional kick, the difficulty of working out what the place is for next. And in some (maybe many) cases, the answer is "not much", or "something a lot less profitable than before".
It needn't last forever, but it's painful while it lasts. And civic pride (alongside investment in infrastructure and retraining) is part of the mix of getting over the gap.
Yes, but the loss of pride follows the economic decline, not so much the other way round.
As Leon goes on to relate, Britain has an awful lot of these places as a result of industrialising early and densely.
I could go on, but I feel I’ve written a lot about this before. The only thing that matters is how to fix it.
Essentially the answers are:
1. Autonomy 2. Infrastructure 3. Skills
The first seems to be anathema to British tradition, and 2 and 3 require money - lots of it and over a long term, too.
It’s possible. East Germany is the leading example. Even there, the places have suffered a lot of depopulation, but at least those that are left are now wealthier than much of the UK.
I applaud your desire to fix places like Stoke, but I think your 1, 2, and 3 are well wide of the mark.
Wales and Scotland have autonomy, and a fairly significant financial bonus to go with it (obviously not something that every proposed autonomous region can have, as by definition, everyone cannot have 'more'.),and they still have 'Stokes' and plenty of them.
Infrastructure is fine, but if somewhere is a jobless dive, all infrastructure does is make it easier to get out, a bit like all HS2 would have done is provide a bigger commuter base for London.
Skills, likewise, whilst helpful, improve areas. Very little point in having skills, with nowhere to put them to use.
To me, those are just the old, tried and failed solutions.
My 1, 2, and 3 of post-industrial regeneration would be as follows I think.
1. Reindustrialisation. The best thing to do in a former coal mining town is mine coal. The best thing to do in a former fishing town is fish. The best thing to do in a boot making town is make boots. This is just a statement of the obvious really. Communities have gathered around these jobs. It's unlikely that they are all going to find work as trendy Web designers, though the possibility should of course not be dismissed. What will work is provably going to be fairly close to what worked before.
2. Carrot and stick tax incentives. Enterprise zones with lower taxes to start new businesses. Higher taxes on landlords with run-down high street property portfolios and developers sitting on land.
3. Onshoring. Government should use its influence to on-shore as much business as possible. Call-centres. Manufacturing. Production of green energy materials and devices.
That would put a rocket up it.
Scotland has autonomy and some fiscal clout. Wales has less.
Glasgow and Cardiff, which is where the wealth must be created, have none.
Also, both Executives have generally bought into the UK ideology that money should be spent on social care rather than infrastructure and priming wealth creation.
Transport spending is - or should be - about making it easier for a labour pool to access jobs (and vice versa) not making it “easier to get out”.
As to your idea to “bring back coal mining”, it is totally batshit. Do you think South Korea should give up shipbuilding and auto and revert to fishing or whatever they did before?
I am not suggesting that any country that has developed along different lines and is doing well should move back. But I am suggesting it may be worth considering in some cases where there is long term, structural unemployment caused by dead or dying industries. Sometimes (like with most coal mining), this cannot happen, but sometimes it can and should.
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
Guto has to earn his salary I suppose but for Joe and all those in other countries scratching their heads here's the unabridged version
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
No, you are not alone in missing the whole point.
Not about cake. About entitlement, hypocrisy, lying to parliament. About fitness for high office.
And criminal behaviour. That's actually quite important.
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
My view of this is that it will only be a big problem if Johnson decides to go to court over the fines. If he just pays them, then he will get away with it on the basis that it is part of his unique political style. He has basically been saved by the war in Ukraine, it has completely overshadowed COVID, and a lot of people understandably struggle to come to terms with this reality and the injustice of it.
With regard to the 'Rwanda' border policy, I don't think people really understand the detail of it. It is the usual thing where oppositions complain about the 'injustice' of a policy whilst proposing zero alternatives. If it works ok, and gets going, then the government will probably ultimately get some credit for it, particularly if it sorts out the illegal boat crossing problem. It will be a case of the government being the 'do-ers' and leading public opinion. Again this will feel like an enormous injustice to those that oppose it, but such is politics.
We're about to become the thing we oppose - people traffickers. We're going to detail people and deport them to Rwanda where we claim our obligations to these people ends. They can choose to claim asylum in Rwanda, or leave, or die - we simply don't care.
As detail comes out as to just how little we give a fuck about these people, I can't see how this becomes a vote winner for the Tories, just as the "deport people" policy never was for the New Party's precursors in the BNP. Iain Dale's reaction live on air was instructive and he's far from being an isolated case.
Simple reality - this won't solve the boats problem. Once dumped in Rwanda the ones seeking the west will simply leave. And come back - as the Home Office have pointed out. Nor can we or do we catch all the boats. Nor are there "zero alternatives" to this - the government refuses to co-operate internationally because of Brexit and refuses to go after scum employers because exploitation of labour is exactly what the JRM Singapore-on-Thames wing of the party had in mind for Brexit.
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
Guto has to earn his salary I suppose but for Joe and all those in other countries scratching their heads here's the unabridged version
As I mentioned last night there are so many variables that impact the differences in IQ scores between nations and races to make any results meaningless. No one other than a racist could possibly believe that so many poor countries have low scores because they are stupid.
@Leon claims Jews are super bright and proof is in the Nobel prizes won and anyone not accepting this is an idiot. Needless to say there is plenty of literature out there explaining the phenomenon that Leon decided to ignore about guess what, the other variables in play that impacted Jewish performance in society in the last century.
It might be worth Leon applying his same logic by comparing Swedes to women, because that implies Swedes are substantially more intelligent than women. Obvious nonsense.
@Leon and @HYUFD regularly demonstrate that just because you read something it doesn't make it correct or if it is jump to an unfounded simple reason for it.
I've always thought that IQ is one of many ways you can measure intelligence. Also that you can easily improve your score by practicing. It is of dubious merit as a tool of selection, either academic selection, or for employment. It is the usual human process where people start believing in something and don't want to hear any objection. It can be witnessed with proponents like Jordan Peterson. IQ testing probably has some limited use but is not the answer to everything.
As I mentioned last night there are so many variables that impact the differences in IQ scores between nations and races to make any results meaningless. No one other than a racist could possibly believe that so many poor countries have low scores because they are stupid.
@Leon claims Jews are super bright and proof is in the Nobel prizes won and anyone not accepting this is an idiot. Needless to say there is plenty of literature out there explaining the phenomenon that Leon decided to ignore about guess what, the other variables in play that impacted Jewish performance in society in the last century.
It might be worth Leon applying his same logic by comparing Swedes to women, because that implies Swedes are substantially more intelligent than women. Obvious nonsense.
@Leon and @HYUFD regularly demonstrate that just because you read something it doesn't make it correct or if it is jump to an unfounded simple reason for it.
Hopefully you're referring to the nationality, not the vegetable of the brassica genus.
Yes, but no doubt they could find a paper proving it was also true for the vegetable as well, after all it can't be a coincidence that there is only one letter difference between genus and genius. That must be relevant surely?
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
No, you are not alone in missing the whole point.
Not about cake. About entitlement, hypocrisy, lying to parliament. About fitness for high office.
If it was a Labour politician, you would be telling us about why it's different, doesn't matter etc.
Some people quite excited about a racial component to it, I note with interest.
As I said last night Jews have the highest verbal reasoning scores and East Asians the highest numerical reasoning scores, as pretty much all IQ scores prove.
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
Guto has to earn his salary I suppose but for Joe and all those in other countries scratching their heads here's the unabridged version
The Guardian - Roger's sense of what is an unbiased source rises to the surface again.
Do you dispute the events listed? The most biased of source can still report the facts - even GBeebies and Fox News and Morning Star report "x has happened in place y involving z" before adding layers of spin as to why its all the fault of a.
There’s a Federal election in Australia in a few weeks’ time (May 21). In the past week, the opposition leader has revealed himself to be more gaffe-prone than Biden, the polls have moved and the betting market has shifted dramatically. Could there be an article here?
Looks like 2019 again and Morrison is doing better/less badly on the personal ratings as HYUFD has pointed out.
I’m sticking with the opposition win on this one. The 2pp is still a huge swing on last time.
At the moment.
No it isn't, the 2PP polls had Labor ahead in 2019 too and were completely wrong.
Labor's 2PP lead has also fallen as well as its primary lead to almost nothing as Morrison has extended his preferred PM lead
Some people quite excited about a racial component to it, I note with interest.
As I said last night Jews have the highest verbal reasoning scores and East Asians the highest numerical reasoning scores, as pretty much all IQ scores prove.
Three Chinese Covid deaths acknowledged in Shanghai presumably the tip of the iceberg. Each with underlying health issues.
As well as a poor domestic vaccine, does China have any of the medicines that have come online for us in the West in the past year or so - ones that have dramatically assisted outcomes when people are hospitalised? If not - poor buggers.
We should be sending these to China - whilst reminding them that their friends really are not in Moscow.
Yes, China needs to accept the need to lose face on vaccines, and get their hands on a billion of the Western jabs as soon as possible.
There’s plenty of capacity, now that all we are doing in the West is follow ups with the elderly, and children as they become of age to receive them.
The Pfizer vaccine is manufactured in China, for use in Hong Kong and other places... but is not approved in China itself.
Can’t they just do what they normally do? Nick the IP and stick a Chinese flag on the box? Really we should be falling over ourselves to encourage them to do this
It will take huge subtlety. It is all about the guanxi. Or "face" as we call it.
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
My view of this is that it will only be a big problem if Johnson decides to go to court over the fines. If he just pays them, then he will get away with it on the basis that it is part of his unique political style. He has basically been saved by the war in Ukraine, it has completely overshadowed COVID, and a lot of people understandably struggle to come to terms with this reality and the injustice of it.
With regard to the 'Rwanda' border policy, I don't think people really understand the detail of it. It is the usual thing where oppositions complain about the 'injustice' of a policy whilst proposing zero alternatives. If it works ok, and gets going, then the government will probably ultimately get some credit for it, particularly if it sorts out the illegal boat crossing problem. It will be a case of the government being the 'do-ers' and leading public opinion. Again this will feel like an enormous injustice to those that oppose it, but such is politics.
We're about to become the thing we oppose - people traffickers. We're going to detail people and deport them to Rwanda where we claim our obligations to these people ends. They can choose to claim asylum in Rwanda, or leave, or die - we simply don't care.
As detail comes out as to just how little we give a fuck about these people, I can't see how this becomes a vote winner for the Tories, just as the "deport people" policy never was for the New Party's precursors in the BNP. Iain Dale's reaction live on air was instructive and he's far from being an isolated case.
Simple reality - this won't solve the boats problem. Once dumped in Rwanda the ones seeking the west will simply leave. And come back - as the Home Office have pointed out. Nor can we or do we catch all the boats. Nor are there "zero alternatives" to this - the government refuses to co-operate internationally because of Brexit and refuses to go after scum employers because exploitation of labour is exactly what the JRM Singapore-on-Thames wing of the party had in mind for Brexit.
Yeah ok. I don't like it either. But what is the alternative solution exactly? If the concern is the safety of the people making the trip on dinghies, do we put on ferries to make the trip safe? And how many millions per year do we accept in to the UK to pursue their claims here? If we are at 1,000 per day under the current situation, that is the population of a large town coming to the UK every year. How long can that go on for?
The brutal logic is that if you make the trip by small boat impossible, then people will stop using this route. In the absence of any other solution, this may be effective.
Some people quite excited about a racial component to it, I note with interest.
As I said last night Jews have the highest verbal reasoning scores and East Asians the highest numerical reasoning scores, as pretty much all IQ scores prove.
Denying that is just denying fact
So you ignore all the evidence that show it isn't a fact and that other variables are in play or do you also believe that Nepal has an average IQ of 43 which makes the average person from Nepal literally an idiot which is plainly nonsense.
Do you also ignore the evidence I and @rcs1000 gave you about how anyone can be trained to perform 20 points better on an IQ test in the UK or USA.
There’s a Federal election in Australia in a few weeks’ time (May 21). In the past week, the opposition leader has revealed himself to be more gaffe-prone than Biden, the polls have moved and the betting market has shifted dramatically. Could there be an article here?
Looks like 2019 again and Morrison is doing better/less badly on the personal ratings as HYUFD has pointed out.
I’m sticking with the opposition win on this one. The 2pp is still a huge swing on last time.
At the moment.
No it isn't, the 2PP polls had Labor ahead in 2019 too and were completely wrong.
Labor's 2PP lead has also fallen as well as its primary lead to almost nothing as Morrison has extended his preferred PM lead
The big question is have they changed the methodology which contributed to the miss last time? I'd be surprised if they haven't. A miss last time doesn't mean another one in the same direction. Nor does it mean there won't be an overcorrection or an inadequate one.
I think there's another side to this debate which we need to be aware of in addition to investigtion / compensation, prevention - why is sodium valproate still prescribed to women who are pregnant? What is the justification? And how are risks balanced?
As I mentioned last night there are so many variables that impact the differences in IQ scores between nations and races to make any results meaningless. No one other than a racist could possibly believe that so many poor countries have low scores because they are stupid.
@Leon claims Jews are super bright and proof is in the Nobel prizes won and anyone not accepting this is an idiot. Needless to say there is plenty of literature out there explaining the phenomenon that Leon decided to ignore about guess what, the other variables in play that impacted Jewish performance in society in the last century.
It might be worth Leon applying his same logic by comparing Swedes to women, because that implies Swedes are substantially more intelligent than women. Obvious nonsense.
@Leon and @HYUFD regularly demonstrate that just because you read something it doesn't make it correct or if it is jump to an unfounded simple reason for it.
I've always thought that IQ is one of many ways you can measure intelligence. Also that you can easily improve your score by practicing. It is of dubious merit as a tool of selection, either academic selection, or for employment. It is the usual human process where people start believing in something and don't want to hear any objection. It can be witnessed with proponents like Jordan Peterson. IQ testing probably has some limited use but is not the answer to everything.
I agree completely. I do not dismiss them out of hand. As mentioned yesterday I was heavily involved with them many decades ago for selection purposes. It is the irrational stuff @Leon on and @HYUFD post on IQ object to.
I hesitate to step into a minefield but sodium valproate was known to be toxic many years ago. I can't date the discovery of known teratogenicity but I suspect it was many years ago too.
All drugs are toxic, and Paracelsus - the original toxicologist - stated centuries ago a truism. "The dose makes the poison," In high doses, oxygen is toxic, as is water. However, the risk/benefit ratio may mean they can still be used with precautions. That is up to the prescriber. In the UK - the GP. Very occasionally, it can he consultant-only. This isn't like the case of thalidomide - testing is much more through nowadays. I'm not medically qualified, but spent half my career in the pharmaceutical industry searching for toxicity in new drug entities
However, it is up to the medical people to decide the usage. Sodium valproate is very effective at what it does. But Medics err on the side of caution. Despite this, no one is 100% accurate all the time. I'm not suggesting mistakes are never made, but newspaper headlines of 'scandal' are always thrown around. It may be a scandal - I don't know. But it's not unknown for newspapers to spice up their articles.
How many guesses did you get at the XOXOOO stage? My partner and I both failed, with 8 distinct guesses between us!
Only two I'm afraid. Could see numerous options like yourself. Error was made earlier when I had the three letters all in the wrong place. Should have ignored them and gone for 5 unused common letters next.
Aren't the Americans biased against Russia though? Well maybe. But remember much of the American analysis before the war was that Russia would win easily.
The latest defence peddled by the Bozo lapdogs as in Blair got a parking ticket and that’s the same as a FPN for breaking lockdown rules is just going to wind people up .
How many guesses did you get at the XOXOOO stage? My partner and I both failed, with 8 distinct guesses between us!
Only two I'm afraid. Could see numerous options like yourself. Error was made earlier when I had the three letters all in the wrong place. Should have ignored them and gone for 5 unused common letters next.
Got it in 5. Lucky 2nd guess maybe at the XOXOO stage, but there was only one other option I could see at that stage.
How many guesses did you get at the XOXOOO stage? My partner and I both failed, with 8 distinct guesses between us!
Only two I'm afraid. Could see numerous options like yourself. Error was made earlier when I had the three letters all in the wrong place. Should have ignored them and gone for 5 unused common letters next.
Got it in 5. Lucky 2nd guess maybe at the XOXOO stage, but there was only one other option I could see at that stage.
Edit: Mrs P has just failed having had four XOXOO guesses - not a happy bunny. I think I'll quietly go and hide in the shed.
Did this video get posted yet? A tear down of a Russian drone, showing it to be made of a camera sold in Dixons and a fuel tank made from an Evian bottle.
Lots of thoughts spring to mind. “Does the US budget really need to be so high?” being one.
Closely followed by “how can anyone argue with a straight face that the supersonic novel propulsion UAP might be Russian?”.
Finally “Is a Black Sea Kursk disaster just a matter of time?”.
Brandon Lewis in another car crash interview on Radio 4. I thought Corbyn's mob took a lot of beating but I think Johnson's are giving them a run for their money. "Lots of Prime Minister's have fixed penalty tickets" says Brandon
There’s a Federal election in Australia in a few weeks’ time (May 21). In the past week, the opposition leader has revealed himself to be more gaffe-prone than Biden, the polls have moved and the betting market has shifted dramatically. Could there be an article here?
Looks like 2019 again and Morrison is doing better/less badly on the personal ratings as HYUFD has pointed out.
I’m sticking with the opposition win on this one. The 2pp is still a huge swing on last time.
At the moment.
No it isn't, the 2PP polls had Labor ahead in 2019 too and were completely wrong.
Labor's 2PP lead has also fallen as well as its primary lead to almost nothing as Morrison has extended his preferred PM lead
The big question is have they changed the methodology which contributed to the miss last time? I'd be surprised if they haven't. A miss last time doesn't mean another one in the same direction. Nor does it mean there won't be an overcorrection or an inadequate one.
Last time it was the Preferred PM figures that were correct, the 2PP numbers were miles off.
Given again there is such a distortion between the 2 any methodology changes have been minor at most
Some people quite excited about a racial component to it, I note with interest.
As I said last night Jews have the highest verbal reasoning scores and East Asians the highest numerical reasoning scores, as pretty much all IQ scores prove.
Denying that is just denying fact
So you ignore all the evidence that show it isn't a fact and that other variables are in play or do you also believe that Nepal has an average IQ of 43 which makes the average person from Nepal literally an idiot which is plainly nonsense.
Do you also ignore the evidence I and @rcs1000 gave you about how anyone can be trained to perform 20 points better on an IQ test in the UK or USA.
We know you have an ideological agenda against IQ tests yes.
Even a 20 point improvement would not bridge the average 47 IQ points gap between say Japan and Mali
Comments
Still not fully prepared for living with the virus, the government is sticking to “zero COVID”"
https://www.science.org/content/article/undebatable-political-decision-why-china-refuses-end-its-harsh-lockdowns
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/federal-election/coalition-and-labor-both-suffer-hits-in-latest-newspoll-as-minor-parties-and-independents-benefit/news-story/c2c9324a66197eb0b1159c44ae6eb516
Melenchon did best with the poor, Hidalgo best with middle earners and Le Pen best with the poor and middle earners
https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1515849106970710017?s=20&t=aA1UeepnXyRUbPRxW8nxrA
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/usa-presidential-election-2024/election-winner-betting-1.176878927
At the moment.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-19/federal-election-live-blog-scott-morrison-anthony-albanese/100997346
In the other markets, Harris is 4/1 to be Democrat nominee and the Democrats are 5/4 to win, which implies a little over 10/1 for Harris to win (assuming these are independent which they are not really but it is good enough). So 14/1 (now 13/1) is a touch of value (though per @StuartDickson from a couple of threads back, beware the effect of inflation on your stake and winnings).
SHAFTED BY FRENCH British men’s willies are only the 66th biggest in the world, study finds – & even French fared better
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18292969/british-mens-willies-66th-biggest-in-world/
That the Sun needed to specify men's willies is presumably some sort of argument in the trans debate but I've no idea on which side.
If these deportations ever do begin, the sordid details are going to be all over the media. You’d have thought the Tories would at least attempt to shake off the Nasty Party reputation, but they seem hell-bent on reinforcing it. If the party was a person it would have a diagnosis.
Ironically, she has a better chance if Biden stands down early, before the next election, leaving her as the incumbent.
Meanwhile, Democrats are trying to work out how to sideline her if Biden stands down at the election. They don’t want her seen as the heir apparent, given her ratings are on the floor.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/democrats-kamala-harris-problem
Probably done by Biden getting primaried by Buttegieg
But what is intelligence? I've listened to people working in the area have heated debates about how to define intelligence, yet alone how to test for it, or create artificial intelligence. Are there different 'types' of intelligence and, if so, what are they and how are they defined?
https://www.hbl.fi/artikel/natomedlemskap-hotar-skapa-maktkamp/
The precise definition of their Next President market was referred to when there were discussions about Trump standing down early, as people piled on Pence without realising the market was for the 2020 election rather than who was actually the next president. As always, the value is usually with “events” not happening.
https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1499096278579482629
https://apnews.com/article/business-41a18aac1a9405a5b6b257a798fad66e
Take that, free traders! No chance we could follow in supporting our own industries.
"You're lyin' to me. You're LYIN' To me!"
"Yeah - but hear me out...."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6161691.stm
(Plus there will be 87 guys on here saying "Well, they never measured MINE!")
It's quality, not quantity that counts! And expertise in use!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/19/1000-days-of-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-proroguing-parliament-partygate
As well as a poor domestic vaccine, does China have any of the medicines that have come online for us in the West in the past year or so - ones that have dramatically assisted outcomes when people are hospitalised? If not - poor buggers.
We should be sending these to China - whilst reminding them that their friends really are not in Moscow.
https://apnews.com/article/covid-business-health-china-shanghai-8a87e198bccadd93d3788b315bc410bf
From what we now know of the poor serviceability affecting the Russian military, taking away four planes and pilots might make a reasonable difference to their capability in Ukraine.
Zoe Strimpel in the Telegraph:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/17/sorry-remainiacs-britain-far-laughing-stock-world/
She’s completely right, that people from other countries are wondering why the PM being given a cake on his birthday is a big story.
“There is more than a shred of Remainiac venom in the relentless condemnation of Britain still afoot. It’s there in Partygate, a matter so trivial, in the scheme of things, that no other ruling party in the world would be brought to its knees by it. It’s there in the reaction to the Rwanda asylum plan (a policy that has yet to be pulled off without disaster, but which, based on initial reports into what the asylum seekers can expect there, is not as awful and inhumane as the Britain-haters want to believe). And it’s there, mystifyingly, in our handling of Ukraine.
“Britain’s self-loathing problem hangs itself on whatever is going. In the case of Partygate, it’s a hugely over-egged question of which ministers secretly consumed which foodstuffs in company, where and for how long during lockdown. There is some understandable anger among parts of the electorate over this, but in the main it has simply become an excuse for distorting or drowning out everything else going on. Like trying to come up with a workable border policy. Or our exemplary attempts to save Europe from the grotesque ambition of a malign, nuke-happy Russia.
“The most embarrassing thing of all about Partygate is that in almost any other country, it wouldn’t even bubble to the surface. This is partly because most places are actually in worse shape than Britain, and next to the unrest and discontent they face, a scandal over cakes and ale would be, well, a luxury. A joke.”
There’s plenty of capacity, now that all we are doing in the West is follow ups with the elderly, and children as they become of age to receive them.
Kenneth Williams sings the Marrow Song
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyTPEVv-hNE
The real issue he has is misleading parliament. Had he said "I've been an idiot, I nearly died, I was reacting to that" he may have got away with it. Instead it "done nothing, only cake, bloody woke remoaners".
A big 48 hours where we find out if JRM/HY amorality has properly taken root in the New Party.
I think the 'arithmetic and likelihood' will be more affected by the attitude of certain other NATO member states towards the application, as it progresses.
More worryingly there have been reports of chemical weapons use in Izyum.
Its the other way round. The public aren't as stupid as the New party think and they are clearly not going to accept this deflection and move on as ordered.
Doesn't matter if right wing Tories do a Violet Bott and thream and thream till they're thick. It is simply not possible to make such a promise. In fact, given his reputation, I'm surprised he's not simply doing the easy thing.
Not about cake. About entitlement, hypocrisy, lying to parliament. About fitness for high office.
@Leon claims Jews are super bright and proof is in the Nobel prizes won and anyone not accepting this is an idiot. Needless to say there is plenty of literature out there explaining the phenomenon that Leon decided to ignore about guess what, the other variables in play that impacted Jewish performance in society in the last century.
It might be worth Leon applying his same logic by comparing Swedes to women, because that implies Swedes are substantially more intelligent than women. Obvious nonsense.
@Leon and @HYUFD regularly demonstrate that just because you read something it doesn't make it correct or if it is jump to an unfounded simple reason for it.
With regard to the 'Rwanda' border policy, I don't think people really understand the detail of it. It is the usual thing where oppositions complain about the 'injustice' of a policy whilst proposing zero alternatives. If it works ok, and gets going, then the government will probably ultimately get some credit for it, particularly if it sorts out the illegal boat crossing problem. It will be a case of the government being the 'do-ers' and leading public opinion. Again this will feel like an enormous injustice to those that oppose it, but such is politics.
But to recognise and act on that would require anticipation of future consequences, and one of BoJo's talents has always been to live in the moment.
The decisions were made both ways without proper debate. And lockdown has to remain a policy option for the future.
Don't know how unusual that is.
We should never again tolerate our fundamental liberties being stolen like that again. It was a horrendous mistake in hindsight.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/19/1000-days-of-boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-proroguing-parliament-partygate
As detail comes out as to just how little we give a fuck about these people, I can't see how this becomes a vote winner for the Tories, just as the "deport people" policy never was for the New Party's precursors in the BNP. Iain Dale's reaction live on air was instructive and he's far from being an isolated case.
Simple reality - this won't solve the boats problem. Once dumped in Rwanda the ones seeking the west will simply leave. And come back - as the Home Office have pointed out. Nor can we or do we catch all the boats. Nor are there "zero alternatives" to this - the government refuses to co-operate internationally because of Brexit and refuses to go after scum employers because exploitation of labour is exactly what the JRM Singapore-on-Thames wing of the party had in mind for Brexit.
You don't hold principles, you hold sides.
Denying that is just denying fact
First ever loss.
Devastated.
Labor's 2PP lead has also fallen as well as its primary lead to almost nothing as Morrison has extended his preferred PM lead
It is all about the guanxi.
Or "face" as we call it.
If the concern is the safety of the people making the trip on dinghies, do we put on ferries to make the trip safe? And how many millions per year do we accept in to the UK to pursue their claims here? If we are at 1,000 per day under the current situation, that is the population of a large town coming to the UK every year. How long can that go on for?
The brutal logic is that if you make the trip by small boat impossible, then people will stop using this route. In the absence of any other solution, this may be effective.
Do you also ignore the evidence I and @rcs1000 gave you about how anyone can be trained to perform 20 points better on an IQ test in the UK or USA.
I'd be surprised if they haven't.
A miss last time doesn't mean another one in the same direction.
Nor does it mean there won't be an overcorrection or an inadequate one.
I think there's another side to this debate which we need to be aware of in addition to investigtion / compensation, prevention - why is sodium valproate still prescribed to women who are pregnant? What is the justification? And how are risks balanced?
AIUI in 2018 when it was put in the same category as thalidomide (which is still prescribed, I have not checked whether to women planning a pregnancy), anyone being prescribed the drug is required to be on a Pregnancy Prevention Programme.
(https://www.rpharms.com/Portals/0/RPS document library/Open access/Support/Valproate safe supply - community pharmacy FINAL.PDF)
This is strong enough that 2 forms of contraception - including one not being 'user dependent', such as an implant, are required to be in use.
Wordle 304 2/6
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Which shows just how random it can be.
Wordle 304 5/6
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If Biden has to be persuaded to retire early she still has to beat Trump/Pallin in 2024 for pay out.
I hesitate to step into a minefield but sodium valproate was known to be toxic many years ago. I can't date the discovery of known teratogenicity but I suspect it was many years ago too.
All drugs are toxic, and Paracelsus - the original toxicologist - stated centuries ago a truism. "The dose makes the poison," In high doses, oxygen is toxic, as is water. However, the risk/benefit ratio may mean they can still be used with precautions. That is up to the prescriber. In the UK - the GP. Very occasionally, it can he consultant-only. This isn't like the case of thalidomide - testing is much more through nowadays. I'm not medically qualified, but spent half my career in the pharmaceutical industry searching for toxicity in new drug entities
However, it is up to the medical people to decide the usage. Sodium valproate is very effective at what it does. But Medics err on the side of caution. Despite this, no one is 100% accurate all the time. I'm not suggesting mistakes are never made, but newspaper headlines of 'scandal' are always thrown around. It may be a scandal - I don't know. But it's not unknown for newspapers to spice up their articles.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-18
Aren't the Americans biased against Russia though? Well maybe. But remember much of the American analysis before the war was that Russia would win easily.
Flippant I know.
Gentlemen, to your drones...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_Nance
Did this video get posted yet? A tear down of a Russian drone, showing it to be made of a camera sold in Dixons and a fuel tank made from an Evian bottle.
Lots of thoughts spring to mind. “Does the US budget really need to be so high?” being one.
Closely followed by “how can anyone argue with a straight face that the supersonic novel propulsion UAP might be Russian?”.
Finally “Is a Black Sea Kursk disaster just a matter of time?”.
74 goes/first defeat.
Given again there is such a distortion between the 2 any methodology changes have been minor at most
Even a 20 point improvement would not bridge the average 47 IQ points gap between say Japan and Mali
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/average-iq-by-country