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The collapse of Sunak as seen through the eyes of punters – politicalbetting.com

13

Comments

  • TazTaz Posts: 14,383
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Un basket de deplorable
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited April 2022
    Just upped my stake on fortescue to place @9/1 (BF exchange)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.

    Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
    It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.

    If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
    This is hardly going to help unity of cause

    https://news.sky.com/story/emmanuel-macron-calls-polish-pm-mateusz-morawiecki-far-right-anti-semite-after-criticism-of-his-putin-calls-12585999
    What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.

    I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
    PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
    I have not and am not predicting the collapse of the EU. But I do think it is at serious risk of fraying at the edges. I hope that I am wrong. On the plus side, I usually am.
    Hasn’t it already frayed with the departure of UKnow who? Fortunately or unfortunately depending on one’s pov the pocket that held the EU cards didn’t fray completely.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Boris must want to make a good impression in Ukraine, his suit is not scruffy and his hair is almost managable, for him.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Basket of Deplorables, JUST VERY LOUDLY.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,413
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    "Vote for X not the fascist" has worked at several French elections, I suppose it must stop working eventually.

    If Le Pen loses again she is surely shown as not the answer, but where will her support go for next time?
    The trouble is that only works when (they) are sort of a fascist and the mainstream candidate has better answers.

    But, if they're not and they're not dealing with voters real concerns, then it backfires.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,383

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Basket of Deplorables, JUST VERY LOUDLY.
    And slowly
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.

    Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
    It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.

    If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
    This is hardly going to help unity of cause

    https://news.sky.com/story/emmanuel-macron-calls-polish-pm-mateusz-morawiecki-far-right-anti-semite-after-criticism-of-his-putin-calls-12585999
    What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.

    I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
    PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
    As are people being overdramatic about what people are predicting about the EU, since I see a list of tensions and one potential 'on the way' to being expelled rather than anything imminent. Hardly a prediction of collapse, but I suppose it makes it easier than the not in dispute fact that there are tensions over what to do re Ukraine in the EU - which is only right and natural of them, there are 27 members of course there are tensions.
    People often comment on the tensions in the UK over Ukraine. But actually, I'd argue that the unity of purpose within the EU over what to do about Ukraine/Russia is really pretty impressive, given the potential for differences arising from different relationships and/or dependencies with Russia.

    It's fashionable to knock the EU, but its response to Ukraine has been pretty good.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,640
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.

    Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
    It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.

    If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
    This is hardly going to help unity of cause

    https://news.sky.com/story/emmanuel-macron-calls-polish-pm-mateusz-morawiecki-far-right-anti-semite-after-criticism-of-his-putin-calls-12585999
    What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.

    I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
    PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
    As are people being overdramatic about what people are predicting about the EU, since I see a list of tensions and one potential 'on the way' to being expelled rather than anything imminent. Hardly a prediction of collapse, but I suppose it makes it easier than the not in dispute fact that there are tensions over what to do re Ukraine in the EU - which is only right and natural of them, there are 27 members of course there are tensions.
    Sure, differences of opinion are fundamental to dynamic political debate. It is a sign of democracy rather than a feature of its sickness.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited April 2022

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.

    Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
    It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.

    If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
    This is hardly going to help unity of cause

    https://news.sky.com/story/emmanuel-macron-calls-polish-pm-mateusz-morawiecki-far-right-anti-semite-after-criticism-of-his-putin-calls-12585999
    What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.

    I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
    PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
    As are people being overdramatic about what people are predicting about the EU, since I see a list of tensions and one potential 'on the way' to being expelled rather than anything imminent. Hardly a prediction of collapse, but I suppose it makes it easier than the not in dispute fact that there are tensions over what to do re Ukraine in the EU - which is only right and natural of them, there are 27 members of course there are tensions.
    People often comment on the tensions in the UK over Ukraine. But actually, I'd argue that the unity of purpose within the EU over what to do about Ukraine/Russia is really pretty impressive, given the potential for differences arising from different relationships and/or dependencies with Russia.

    It's fashionable to knock the EU, but its response to Ukraine has been pretty good.
    It has, I think they've moved quickly and decisively for such a large organisation, and some of its member states have had to operate some fairly drastic u-turns. It may not be as much as Ukraine wants or needs, but even with the praise on the UK we've not gone as far as they'd like either (eg rejecting pushing for a no fly zone), it's not knocking them to think they might struggle to maintain such coherence and unity as things develop and impacts would hit different parts harder - we already know the eastern members are more fiery in their rhetoric than those in the west.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.

    Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
    It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.

    If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
    This is hardly going to help unity of cause

    https://news.sky.com/story/emmanuel-macron-calls-polish-pm-mateusz-morawiecki-far-right-anti-semite-after-criticism-of-his-putin-calls-12585999
    What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.

    I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
    PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
    As are people being overdramatic about what people are predicting about the EU, since I see a list of tensions and one potential 'on the way' to being expelled rather than anything imminent. Hardly a prediction of collapse, but I suppose it makes it easier than the not in dispute fact that there are tensions over what to do re Ukraine in the EU - which is only right and natural of them, there are 27 members of course there are tensions.
    Sure, differences of opinion are fundamental to dynamic political debate. It is a sign of democracy rather than a feature of its sickness.
    I agree, but it will mean future options will become more tense as disagreements rise. That's not a matter of EU sickness, it's just the nature of such a broad polity. Democracy's benefits were never around efficiency of geopolitical action.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,640
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    "Vote for X not the fascist" has worked at several French elections, I suppose it must stop working eventually.

    If Le Pen loses again she is surely shown as not the answer, but where will her support go for next time?
    I dont think Le Pen is a fascist. Her party has some deeply unpleasant roots, bug the current Le Pen did chuck out her own father for anti-semitism.

    She is a right wing populist with all the political incoherence that that entails, and will be very divisive, but France will not be Fascist.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    While out reporting in Ukraine I’d say about three people a day tell me something along the lines of: “thanks to the British government for the weapons. When are we getting more?”

    https://twitter.com/louiseelisabet/status/1512820971371126786?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,413
    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    "Vote for X not the fascist" has worked at several French elections, I suppose it must stop working eventually.

    If Le Pen loses again she is surely shown as not the answer, but where will her support go for next time?
    The trouble is that only works when (they) are sort of a fascist and the mainstream candidate has better answers.

    But, if they're not and they're not dealing with voters real concerns, then it backfires.
    Well she supports Putin, who certainly is a fascist and has supported his nonsense about blaming NATO for Russia's decisions. She's worked hard to bury her fascist past, but you can know a person from their friends, and Le Pen can just get in the fucking sea.
    Sure, but Macron is pretty timid with him too.

    There's a strong pro Russian sentiment that runs in French politics on the basis the two countries should really "bookend" Europe in cooperation with each other.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,830
    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    No, no, it's the royalists and exploiters who would be in le panier.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited April 2022

    Today I met my friend President @ZelenskyyUa in Kyiv as a show of our unwavering support for the people of Ukraine.

    We're setting out a new package of financial & military aid which is a testament of our commitment to his country's struggle against Russia’s barbaric campaign.


    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1512818337415372802

    There's plenty of absolutely typical twitter replies to that, but I fear this one just confused me - my knowledge of Inbetweeners extends to knowing there was a movie based on a sitcom with that name and that's it. Given their disparity in age and appearence I'm not sure how both Boris and Zelensky give off that impression.

    Awe freeweendddddssssssss, you both look like inbetweeners 😂😂😂
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,413
    Longhouse Poet looks either pumped or jittery depending on your point of view. I'd probably go for the latter. Might just be the noise of the crowds though.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.

    Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
    It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.

    If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
    This is hardly going to help unity of cause

    https://news.sky.com/story/emmanuel-macron-calls-polish-pm-mateusz-morawiecki-far-right-anti-semite-after-criticism-of-his-putin-calls-12585999
    What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.

    I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
    PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
    As are people being overdramatic about what people are predicting about the EU, since I see a list of tensions and one potential 'on the way' to being expelled rather than anything imminent. Hardly a prediction of collapse, but I suppose it makes it easier than the not in dispute fact that there are tensions over what to do re Ukraine in the EU - which is only right and natural of them, there are 27 members of course there are tensions.
    People often comment on the tensions in the UK over Ukraine. But actually, I'd argue that the unity of purpose within the EU over what to do about Ukraine/Russia is really pretty impressive, given the potential for differences arising from different relationships and/or dependencies with Russia.

    It's fashionable to knock the EU, but its response to Ukraine has been pretty good.
    Whoops - in the first line I obviously meant to type EU, not UK.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    edited April 2022
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.

    Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
    It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.

    If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
    This is hardly going to help unity of cause

    https://news.sky.com/story/emmanuel-macron-calls-polish-pm-mateusz-morawiecki-far-right-anti-semite-after-criticism-of-his-putin-calls-12585999
    What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.

    I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
    PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
    From a country in danger of losing Scotland... Ireland ....4% of our GDP ...... with a Chancellors wife who can't even bear to be domiciled here ......a Prime Minister soon to be charged....

    Other than that the UK are in a perfect position to pontificate on the EU collapsing
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,830
    edited April 2022

    I want Starmer's and Davey's wife to publish their tax return so the nation can see them. That they haven't done so already suggests that both obviously have something to hide. What is fair for Sunak should be fair for every other politician spouse orr even their children if they are old enough to earn money don't you all think?

    Also: the lady is polyandrous, like an Arctic phalarope? Huge if true. I wonder if HMRC's tax rules over the marriage allowance can cope.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    edited April 2022
    Farooq said:

    Snow Leopardess looks very focussed in the parade ring

    I can't even begin to imagine what "focused" looks like in a horse.
    Game face. Think Marvin Hagglers eyes.

    I’m feeling more nervous than the jockeys right now
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    No, no, it's the royalists and exploiters who would be in le panier.
    Or more like the Macron elite now if the Le Pen revolution really took off
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
    France post revolution was not a great place to be
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,413
    Some cheers but also some boos in the crowd in response to the national anthem.

    Still some sectarianism in Liverpool?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,830
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
    Also a fine chemist's. But Lavoisier was a tax farmer on the side, so ...

    BTW the Scots were using the guillotine centuries before, and also the good citizens of Halifax. Useless bit of info for a Saturday afternoon. The Maiden is still in the Museum of Scotland in Edinburgh.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,640
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    No, no, it's the royalists and exploiters who would be in le panier.
    As I recall, both royalists and revolutionaries ended at the guillotine.
  • DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:


    The alternative is that Boris does not recover or cocks up something else and someone else leads the Tories into the next election and is accordingly next PM. Quite hard to call on those 2 options but the lack of a clear successor now on the Tory side makes that side of the bet a lot less attractive.

    If they had to make a quick unscheduled replacement in the event of (another) catastrophic Johnson fuck up the tories would just go for a safe pair of centrist hands in a 'save the furniture' strategy when defeat is inevitable. Maybe Rat Eyes?
    Naah, they are all the way down the rabbit hole now. The Johnsonite wing of the party were pretty aggrieved by California Scheming pushing and briefing and not being a Boosterite knobber. So once the Big Dog inevitably craps on a lawn even he can't just ignore, surely they will anoint someone proper.

    Remember that everything important is at stake. Important being the ability to trouser public money for their friends and patrons. The ability to degrade the public trust so that scrutiny can be dodged or even removed. The ability to reverse some of the worst excesses in the permissive society like Channel 4 and the Rule of Law.

    So no, not Mad-Eye Hunt. They'll go for Javid. Or Williamson. Or Dorries.
    What odds are you wanting?
    Its a hypothetical. What would Big Dog need to do to get removed?
    Not get a CON majority at the next election.
    Johnson only needs to get ~315 seats like May in 2017 to retain power in 2024 and that is where the value betting lies IMO. Even a small majority can't be ruled out as Starmer is doing utterly terribly on the basis of real election results as we saw on Thursday night.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747
    The visits of UvdL and Boris to Kyiv strike me as a crossing of the Rubicon, and a definite escalation of commitment. That's now the EU and UK making a very visible stand and, given the very strong personal remarks of Biden about Putin, there can be no walking away from Ukraine. It's a very strong message for Vlad. No backing down by the West. Interesting times ahead.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,830
    edited April 2022

    Some cheers but also some boos in the crowd in response to the national anthem.

    Still some sectarianism in Liverpool?

    Didn't you read some of the twitter comment about the Everton affair, the one which hit Labour in the electoral goolies this week? Could have come from Glasgow, right down to the ise of the expression 'bluenose', though I'm not clear as to which side is which (so to speak).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.

    Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
    It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.

    If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
    This is hardly going to help unity of cause

    https://news.sky.com/story/emmanuel-macron-calls-polish-pm-mateusz-morawiecki-far-right-anti-semite-after-criticism-of-his-putin-calls-12585999
    What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.

    I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
    PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
    From a country in danger of losing Scotland Ireland 4% of our GDP and with a Chancellors wife who can't even bear to be domiciled here and a Prime Minister soon to be charged....

    Other than that the UK are in a perfect position to pontificate on the EU collapsing
    Good old reliable Wales at least.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    I am embracing the new spirit of the times and demanding severest punishments for the super rich and those who eat cake. I am currently ridding myself of my trousers in preparation of joining the new “sans cullottes” movement and will be marching on 11 Downing Street to free those domiciled therein.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
    France post revolution was not a great place to be
    Anywhere post-revolution isn't a great place to be.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,830
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
    France post revolution was not a great place to be
    Wasn't a great place to be before, either. They taxed the lower orders and workers and left the rich and idle alone. Ring any bells?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
    France post revolution was not a great place to be
    Joe Abercrombie's last book was basically a fantasy take on a french style revolution. Probably the most palatable way to comtemplate some of the madness that took hold at various parts.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,830
    boulay said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    I am embracing the new spirit of the times and demanding severest punishments for the super rich and those who eat cake. I am currently ridding myself of my trousers in preparation of joining the new “sans cullottes” movement and will be marching on 11 Downing Street to free those domiciled therein.
    No, no, no - culottes = breeches. It was loose trousers that the unwashed revolutionaries wore.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    Farooq said:

    Snow Leopardess looks very focussed in the parade ring

    I can't even begin to imagine what "focused" looks like in a horse.
    Game face. Think Marvin Hagglers eyes.

    I’m feeling more nervous than the jockeys right now
    Marvin Nag-ler surely?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Overround on GN SPs is comical.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,830
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    No, no, it's the royalists and exploiters who would be in le panier.
    As I recall, both royalists and revolutionaries ended at the guillotine.
    Eventually, yes!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Any tips for the Grand National?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    edited April 2022
    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.

    Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
    It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.

    If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
    This is hardly going to help unity of cause

    https://news.sky.com/story/emmanuel-macron-calls-polish-pm-mateusz-morawiecki-far-right-anti-semite-after-criticism-of-his-putin-calls-12585999
    What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.

    I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
    PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
    From a country in danger of losing Scotland Ireland 4% of our GDP and with a Chancellors wife who can't even bear to be domiciled here and a Prime Minister soon to be charged....

    Other than that the UK are in a perfect position to pontificate on the EU collapsing
    The problem is it is not a either or, but there are tensions in the EU, especially with Germany, and to try to deflect them is in some ways a denial of the evidence for all to see
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Astonishing

    Here’s a thing: throughout this war, the Ukrainian postal service has kept working. We went out on a round with the indomitable Natalia, who was out delivering post and pensions in northern Kyiv even an hour after a shell hit a street corner on her route


    https://twitter.com/louiseelisabet/status/1511967736829775873?cxt=HHwWgsC4maupy_spAAAA
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    boulay said:

    Farooq said:

    Snow Leopardess looks very focussed in the parade ring

    I can't even begin to imagine what "focused" looks like in a horse.
    Game face. Think Marvin Hagglers eyes.

    I’m feeling more nervous than the jockeys right now
    Marvin Nag-ler surely?
    Are weeeeeee reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeady to rummmmmmmmmmmble?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
    France post revolution was not a great place to be
    Wasn't a great place to be before, either. They taxed the lower orders and workers and left the rich and idle alone. Ring any bells?
    Heaven?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Carnyx said:

    boulay said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    I am embracing the new spirit of the times and demanding severest punishments for the super rich and those who eat cake. I am currently ridding myself of my trousers in preparation of joining the new “sans cullottes” movement and will be marching on 11 Downing Street to free those domiciled therein.
    No, no, no - culottes = breeches. It was loose trousers that the unwashed revolutionaries wore.
    Damn it, why can’t there be a style guide for revolutions. Knowing my luck I would have been standing next to Che Guevara in white tie and tales at this rate.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:


    The alternative is that Boris does not recover or cocks up something else and someone else leads the Tories into the next election and is accordingly next PM. Quite hard to call on those 2 options but the lack of a clear successor now on the Tory side makes that side of the bet a lot less attractive.

    If they had to make a quick unscheduled replacement in the event of (another) catastrophic Johnson fuck up the tories would just go for a safe pair of centrist hands in a 'save the furniture' strategy when defeat is inevitable. Maybe Rat Eyes?
    Naah, they are all the way down the rabbit hole now. The Johnsonite wing of the party were pretty aggrieved by California Scheming pushing and briefing and not being a Boosterite knobber. So once the Big Dog inevitably craps on a lawn even he can't just ignore, surely they will anoint someone proper.

    Remember that everything important is at stake. Important being the ability to trouser public money for their friends and patrons. The ability to degrade the public trust so that scrutiny can be dodged or even removed. The ability to reverse some of the worst excesses in the permissive society like Channel 4 and the Rule of Law.

    So no, not Mad-Eye Hunt. They'll go for Javid. Or Williamson. Or Dorries.
    What odds are you wanting?
    Its a hypothetical. What would Big Dog need to do to get removed?
    Not get a CON majority at the next election.
    Johnson only needs to get ~315 seats like May in 2017 to retain power in 2024 and that is where the value betting lies IMO. Even a small majority can't be ruled out as Starmer is doing utterly terribly on the basis of real election results as we saw on Thursday night.
    We'll get a pretty good idea of how likely Starmer is to become PM on 5th May.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Andy_JS said:

    Any tips for the Grand National?

    At the SPs don't bet lol.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
    France post revolution was not a great place to be
    Very few places are immediately post Revolution. Too many scores being settled.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
    France post revolution was not a great place to be
    Wasn't a great place to be before, either. They taxed the lower orders and workers and left the rich and idle alone. Ring any bells?
    Certainly not this government, everyone earning under £34,000 has actually seen a cut in their NI, with those earning over £100,000 seeing the biggest increase

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60996174
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,830
    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
    France post revolution was not a great place to be
    Wasn't a great place to be before, either. They taxed the lower orders and workers and left the rich and idle alone. Ring any bells?
    Heaven?
    For Johnsonian Tories, yes. Come to think of it, I wonder if a certain person, no I won't go there, that analogy is just too deplorable.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    It always amuses to watch 40 horses try and get in a straight line.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited April 2022
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
    France post revolution was not a great place to be
    Anywhere post-revolution isn't a great place to be.
    Arguably the American Revolution, unless you were a loyalist Tory who had not managed to move to Canada
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,830
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
    France post revolution was not a great place to be
    Wasn't a great place to be before, either. They taxed the lower orders and workers and left the rich and idle alone. Ring any bells?
    Certainly not this government, everyone earning under £34,000 has actually seen a cut in their NI, with those earning over £100,000 seeing the biggest increase

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60996174
    I look forward to seeing you tell the proles theyt have never had it so good come the electoral campaigning.
  • Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:


    The alternative is that Boris does not recover or cocks up something else and someone else leads the Tories into the next election and is accordingly next PM. Quite hard to call on those 2 options but the lack of a clear successor now on the Tory side makes that side of the bet a lot less attractive.

    If they had to make a quick unscheduled replacement in the event of (another) catastrophic Johnson fuck up the tories would just go for a safe pair of centrist hands in a 'save the furniture' strategy when defeat is inevitable. Maybe Rat Eyes?
    Naah, they are all the way down the rabbit hole now. The Johnsonite wing of the party were pretty aggrieved by California Scheming pushing and briefing and not being a Boosterite knobber. So once the Big Dog inevitably craps on a lawn even he can't just ignore, surely they will anoint someone proper.

    Remember that everything important is at stake. Important being the ability to trouser public money for their friends and patrons. The ability to degrade the public trust so that scrutiny can be dodged or even removed. The ability to reverse some of the worst excesses in the permissive society like Channel 4 and the Rule of Law.

    So no, not Mad-Eye Hunt. They'll go for Javid. Or Williamson. Or Dorries.
    What odds are you wanting?
    Its a hypothetical. What would Big Dog need to do to get removed?
    Not get a CON majority at the next election.
    Johnson only needs to get ~315 seats like May in 2017 to retain power in 2024 and that is where the value betting lies IMO. Even a small majority can't be ruled out as Starmer is doing utterly terribly on the basis of real election results as we saw on Thursday night.
    We'll get a pretty good idea of how likely Starmer is to become PM on 5th May.
    I can see Labour falling flat, failing to gain any London councils and ending up tied in the NEV.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Omnium said:

    I'm currently reading Max Hasting's book on the Korean War. (Interested if anyone can suggest others)

    There's a really striking parallel of a war busily destroying an innocent nation as a proxy for a far bigger argument.

    (I don't think that it's quite true in either case - both wars are due to more domestic issues)

    Allen R Millett’s The War for Korea is a really comprehensive history.
    Unfortunately he has yet to write the third volume, and is 84….
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Omnium said:

    I'm currently reading Max Hasting's book on the Korean War. (Interested if anyone can suggest others)

    There's a really striking parallel of a war busily destroying an innocent nation as a proxy for a far bigger argument.

    (I don't think that it's quite true in either case - both wars are due to more domestic issues)

    My own Daddy Dearest, a USMC veteran of Inchon and the Frozen Chosen, enjoyed MH's book but thought it was highly, occasionally absurdly Anglo-centric.

    That said, he always credited the Royal Marines for helping to preserve his existence (along with his own efforts) when they ended up together in a very bad place at an extremely critical time, on the road to Hagaru.

    Can recommend some books, at moment they are under a pile in my rumpus room, but lucky for you am just getting ready to continue my Spring cleaning! Will give you titles ASAP.

    In meantime, Osprey publishing has several monographs re: Korean War, for example one on Inchon and couple on 1950 Chinese Winter offensive.

    Speaking of that, my dad's uncle was bugging out with US Army on western side of North Korea, at same time he was "advancing to the rear" with the Marines on the eastern side. And they both blamed the same guy for their situation.

    NOT President Harry Truman (though both were rock-ribbed Republicans). Instead, Gen. Douglas MacArthur.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,830
    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    boulay said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    I am embracing the new spirit of the times and demanding severest punishments for the super rich and those who eat cake. I am currently ridding myself of my trousers in preparation of joining the new “sans cullottes” movement and will be marching on 11 Downing Street to free those domiciled therein.
    No, no, no - culottes = breeches. It was loose trousers that the unwashed revolutionaries wore.
    Sans culottes. It was a posh folk who wore les culottes.
    Yes, that's the point. Boulay would have been debagging himself unnecessarily (assuming he's not currently wearing breeches, with or without silver buttons) and exposing his person, or at least underwear,. to all and sundry.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Provinces of peasants ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375
    Farooq said:

    Snow Leopardess looks very focussed in the parade ring

    I can't even begin to imagine what "focused" looks like in a horse.
    It's what they look like when they see a straw man...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:


    The alternative is that Boris does not recover or cocks up something else and someone else leads the Tories into the next election and is accordingly next PM. Quite hard to call on those 2 options but the lack of a clear successor now on the Tory side makes that side of the bet a lot less attractive.

    If they had to make a quick unscheduled replacement in the event of (another) catastrophic Johnson fuck up the tories would just go for a safe pair of centrist hands in a 'save the furniture' strategy when defeat is inevitable. Maybe Rat Eyes?
    Naah, they are all the way down the rabbit hole now. The Johnsonite wing of the party were pretty aggrieved by California Scheming pushing and briefing and not being a Boosterite knobber. So once the Big Dog inevitably craps on a lawn even he can't just ignore, surely they will anoint someone proper.

    Remember that everything important is at stake. Important being the ability to trouser public money for their friends and patrons. The ability to degrade the public trust so that scrutiny can be dodged or even removed. The ability to reverse some of the worst excesses in the permissive society like Channel 4 and the Rule of Law.

    So no, not Mad-Eye Hunt. They'll go for Javid. Or Williamson. Or Dorries.
    What odds are you wanting?
    Its a hypothetical. What would Big Dog need to do to get removed?
    Not get a CON majority at the next election.
    Johnson only needs to get ~315 seats like May in 2017 to retain power in 2024 and that is where the value betting lies IMO. Even a small majority can't be ruled out as Starmer is doing utterly terribly on the basis of real election results as we saw on Thursday night.
    We'll get a pretty good idea of how likely Starmer is to become PM on 5th May.
    I can see Labour falling flat, failing to gain any London councils and ending up tied in the NEV.
    (Hello jamesgraves, welcome to PB)
    I'd be amazed if Labour didn't do well. I think they'll gain Wandsworth, and that'll be a huge gain. I hope they don't gain Westminster because that's where I live. (Nobody wants a Labour council)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,640

    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:


    The alternative is that Boris does not recover or cocks up something else and someone else leads the Tories into the next election and is accordingly next PM. Quite hard to call on those 2 options but the lack of a clear successor now on the Tory side makes that side of the bet a lot less attractive.

    If they had to make a quick unscheduled replacement in the event of (another) catastrophic Johnson fuck up the tories would just go for a safe pair of centrist hands in a 'save the furniture' strategy when defeat is inevitable. Maybe Rat Eyes?
    Naah, they are all the way down the rabbit hole now. The Johnsonite wing of the party were pretty aggrieved by California Scheming pushing and briefing and not being a Boosterite knobber. So once the Big Dog inevitably craps on a lawn even he can't just ignore, surely they will anoint someone proper.

    Remember that everything important is at stake. Important being the ability to trouser public money for their friends and patrons. The ability to degrade the public trust so that scrutiny can be dodged or even removed. The ability to reverse some of the worst excesses in the permissive society like Channel 4 and the Rule of Law.

    So no, not Mad-Eye Hunt. They'll go for Javid. Or Williamson. Or Dorries.
    What odds are you wanting?
    Its a hypothetical. What would Big Dog need to do to get removed?
    Not get a CON majority at the next election.
    Johnson only needs to get ~315 seats like May in 2017 to retain power in 2024 and that is where the value betting lies IMO. Even a small majority can't be ruled out as Starmer is doing utterly terribly on the basis of real election results as we saw on Thursday night.
    We'll get a pretty good idea of how likely Starmer is to become PM on 5th May.
    I can see Labour falling flat, failing to gain any London councils and ending up tied in the NEV.
    Back that well at S-markets? Or just ramping?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
    France post revolution was not a great place to be
    Wasn't a great place to be before, either. They taxed the lower orders and workers and left the rich and idle alone. Ring any bells?
    I love Mark Twain's extended quote on exactly this:

    THERE were two “Reigns of Terror,” if we would but remember it and consider it; the one wrought murder in hot passion, the other in heartless cold blood; the one lasted mere months, the other had lasted a thousand years; the one inflicted death upon ten thousand persons, the other upon a hundred millions; but our shudders are all for the “horrors” of the minor Terror, the momentary Terror, so to speak; whereas, what is the horror of swift death by the axe, compared with lifelong death from hunger, cold, insult, cruelty, and heart-break? What is swift death by lightning compared with death by slow fire at the stake? A city cemetery could contain the coffins filled by that brief Terror which we have all been so diligently taught to shiver at and mourn over; but all France could hardly contain the coffins filled by that older and real Terror—that unspeakably bitter and awful Terror which none of us has been taught to see in its vastness or pity as it deserves.

    The French Revolution was a good thing in the long view.
    Many horrible wars and brutal regimes, in the long run, may be considered to have led to good developments in the long run, and all will have been flash in the pan if taking a suitably long view. It may be true but it isn't particularly helpful to us either, as enduring something horrible now for sake of something better later will also be the phony defence of any number of awful tyrants for their current atrocities, and we won't really have any way of judging it.

    After all, if this Ukrainian war led to vast improvements in many areas as Ukraine rebuilt and reordered itself, it might be argued by future historians it was actually a good thing, on balance.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    boulay said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    I am embracing the new spirit of the times and demanding severest punishments for the super rich and those who eat cake. I am currently ridding myself of my trousers in preparation of joining the new “sans cullottes” movement and will be marching on 11 Downing Street to free those domiciled therein.
    No, no, no - culottes = breeches. It was loose trousers that the unwashed revolutionaries wore.
    Sans culottes. It was a posh folk who wore les culottes.
    Yes, that's the point. Boulay would have been debagging himself unnecessarily (assuming he's not currently wearing breeches, with or without silver buttons) and exposing his person, or at least underwear,. to all and sundry.
    It’s a Saturday so debagging myself at some point and exposing my person to all and sundry is a given.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Re: Korean War books, this one is excellent -

    Enter the Dragon: China's Undeclared War Against the U.S. in Korea, 1950-1951 by Raymond Spurr

    Looks at the war from perspective of China in general, in particular decision-making by Mao & etc., and also how these were implemented on the ground - and against my Daddy Dearest & etc. - in the snows of North Korea.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375
    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    You're forgetting that in the end it was used on Robespierre himself...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited April 2022
    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:


    The alternative is that Boris does not recover or cocks up something else and someone else leads the Tories into the next election and is accordingly next PM. Quite hard to call on those 2 options but the lack of a clear successor now on the Tory side makes that side of the bet a lot less attractive.

    If they had to make a quick unscheduled replacement in the event of (another) catastrophic Johnson fuck up the tories would just go for a safe pair of centrist hands in a 'save the furniture' strategy when defeat is inevitable. Maybe Rat Eyes?
    Naah, they are all the way down the rabbit hole now. The Johnsonite wing of the party were pretty aggrieved by California Scheming pushing and briefing and not being a Boosterite knobber. So once the Big Dog inevitably craps on a lawn even he can't just ignore, surely they will anoint someone proper.

    Remember that everything important is at stake. Important being the ability to trouser public money for their friends and patrons. The ability to degrade the public trust so that scrutiny can be dodged or even removed. The ability to reverse some of the worst excesses in the permissive society like Channel 4 and the Rule of Law.

    So no, not Mad-Eye Hunt. They'll go for Javid. Or Williamson. Or Dorries.
    What odds are you wanting?
    Its a hypothetical. What would Big Dog need to do to get removed?
    Not get a CON majority at the next election.
    Johnson only needs to get ~315 seats like May in 2017 to retain power in 2024 and that is where the value betting lies IMO. Even a small majority can't be ruled out as Starmer is doing utterly terribly on the basis of real election results as we saw on Thursday night.
    We'll get a pretty good idea of how likely Starmer is to become PM on 5th May.
    I can see Labour falling flat, failing to gain any London councils and ending up tied in the NEV.
    (Hello jamesgraves, welcome to PB)
    I'd be amazed if Labour didn't do well. I think they'll gain Wandsworth, and that'll be a huge gain. I hope they don't gain Westminster because that's where I live. (Nobody wants a Labour council)
    All 3 Wandsworth MPs are now Labour, Cities of London and Westminster is in the top 100 Labour target seats.

    If he is on course to be PM, Starmer really needs Labour to gain Wandsworth and Westminster councils in May
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:


    The alternative is that Boris does not recover or cocks up something else and someone else leads the Tories into the next election and is accordingly next PM. Quite hard to call on those 2 options but the lack of a clear successor now on the Tory side makes that side of the bet a lot less attractive.

    If they had to make a quick unscheduled replacement in the event of (another) catastrophic Johnson fuck up the tories would just go for a safe pair of centrist hands in a 'save the furniture' strategy when defeat is inevitable. Maybe Rat Eyes?
    Naah, they are all the way down the rabbit hole now. The Johnsonite wing of the party were pretty aggrieved by California Scheming pushing and briefing and not being a Boosterite knobber. So once the Big Dog inevitably craps on a lawn even he can't just ignore, surely they will anoint someone proper.

    Remember that everything important is at stake. Important being the ability to trouser public money for their friends and patrons. The ability to degrade the public trust so that scrutiny can be dodged or even removed. The ability to reverse some of the worst excesses in the permissive society like Channel 4 and the Rule of Law.

    So no, not Mad-Eye Hunt. They'll go for Javid. Or Williamson. Or Dorries.
    What odds are you wanting?
    Its a hypothetical. What would Big Dog need to do to get removed?
    Not get a CON majority at the next election.
    Johnson only needs to get ~315 seats like May in 2017 to retain power in 2024 and that is where the value betting lies IMO. Even a small majority can't be ruled out as Starmer is doing utterly terribly on the basis of real election results as we saw on Thursday night.
    We'll get a pretty good idea of how likely Starmer is to become PM on 5th May.
    I can see Labour falling flat, failing to gain any London councils and ending up tied in the NEV.
    (Hello jamesgraves, welcome to PB)
    I'd be amazed if Labour didn't do well. I think they'll gain Wandsworth, and that'll be a huge gain. I hope they don't gain Westminster because that's where I live. (Nobody wants a Labour council)
    All 3 Wandsworth MPs are now Labour, Cities of London and Westminster is in the top 100 Labour target seats.

    If he is on course to be PM, Starmer really needs Labour to gain Wandsworth and Westminster in May
    Councils.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,640
    edited April 2022
    So. Who tipped Noble Yeats?

    No places for me.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Well that was a waste of time and money…
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited April 2022
    So who had Noble Yeats at 50/1?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    I don’t think any of our forecasters did all that well on the National, did they?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    You're forgetting that in the end it was used on Robespierre himself...
    Only after they had executed the King and Queen and most of the French aristocracy who had not managed to flee abroad
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
    France post revolution was not a great place to be
    Wasn't a great place to be before, either. They taxed the lower orders and workers and left the rich and idle alone. Ring any bells?
    I love Mark Twain's extended quote on exactly this:

    THERE were two “Reigns of Terror,” if we would but remember it and consider it; the one wrought murder in hot passion, the other in heartless cold blood; the one lasted mere months, the other had lasted a thousand years; the one inflicted death upon ten thousand persons, the other upon a hundred millions; but our shudders are all for the “horrors” of the minor Terror, the momentary Terror, so to speak; whereas, what is the horror of swift death by the axe, compared with lifelong death from hunger, cold, insult, cruelty, and heart-break? What is swift death by lightning compared with death by slow fire at the stake? A city cemetery could contain the coffins filled by that brief Terror which we have all been so diligently taught to shiver at and mourn over; but all France could hardly contain the coffins filled by that older and real Terror—that unspeakably bitter and awful Terror which none of us has been taught to see in its vastness or pity as it deserves.

    The French Revolution was a good thing in the long view.
    What a proto-woke was "Mark Twain"! And NOT even willing to publish under his real name!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375
    Sandpit said:

    So who had Noble Yeates at 50/1?

    Somebody who now has Venetian disease?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    Snow Leopardess looks very focussed in the parade ring

    I can't even begin to imagine what "focused" looks like in a horse.
    It's what they look like when they see a straw man...
    Straw, it's full of vitamin hay.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,640
    Bet 365 seems frozen.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Les Rosbifs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375
    Foxy said:

    Bet 365 seems frozen.

    Panic as they realise they hadn't covered one really big bet?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424

    OMG. My wife picked Noble Yeats as her bet.



    Congratulations
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,787
    F1: *sighs* having waited for markets to appear, Ladbrokes now isn't working properly so I can't place the bet.

    I'll wait for a little bit but if it doesn't go up then I'll just have to tip without betting.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874

    I don’t think any of our forecasters did all that well on the National, did they?

    Deeply, deeply insulted.

    I offered you SANTINI and FIDDLERONTHEHOOF and with any reasonable bookie you'll paid on fourth and fifth each way. SANTINI returned 33s having been 50s this morning with Paddy and others.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,214
    edited April 2022

    I don’t think any of our forecasters did all that well on the National, did they?

    I said Any Second Now. I thought he'd won it two furlongs out.

    Backed at 16/1 e/w ante-post and again this morning to be placed. But it would have been a proper pick-up if it had won.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    OMG. My wife picked Noble Yeats as her bet.



    50/1.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375

    OMG. My wife picked Noble Yeats as her bet.



    Poetry in motion.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    NEW: Russia’s first default in a century looks all but inevitable now: Bloomberg

    https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1512830333145726979
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,413
    Damn. I picked three of the top five horses (Any Second Now, Santini and Lost in Translation) but Noble Yeats winning is totally leftfield.

    £92 loss for me. Oh well.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    stodge said:

    I don’t think any of our forecasters did all that well on the National, did they?

    Deeply, deeply insulted.

    I offered you SANTINI and FIDDLERONTHEHOOF and with any reasonable bookie you'll paid on fourth and fifth each way. SANTINI returned 33s having been 50s this morning with Paddy and others.
    Has the Grand National happened?

    When was that?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    boulay said:

    Farooq said:

    Snow Leopardess looks very focussed in the parade ring

    I can't even begin to imagine what "focused" looks like in a horse.
    Game face. Think Marvin Hagglers eyes.

    I’m feeling more nervous than the jockeys right now
    Marvin Nag-ler surely?
    A wither-ing response!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Back to politics.

    The Conservative flash mob were out in East Ham High Street getting in the way of ordinary citizens trying to place their Grand National bets.

    For some reason, the Conservative Mayoral candidate wanted to go into every shop except the bookies and talk to the shop keepers but not the actual shoppers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    I don’t think any of our forecasters did all that well on the National, did they?

    Deeply, deeply insulted.

    I offered you SANTINI and FIDDLERONTHEHOOF and with any reasonable bookie you'll paid on fourth and fifth each way. SANTINI returned 33s having been 50s this morning with Paddy and others.
    Has the Grand National happened?

    When was that?
    Me too.
    I gave up betting on the National a couple of decades back. Must have saved me a fortune.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited April 2022
    Decent enough result, £112 profit I think or so. Had 2nd and 3rd.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    I don’t think any of our forecasters did all that well on the National, did they?

    Deeply, deeply insulted.

    I offered you SANTINI and FIDDLERONTHEHOOF and with any reasonable bookie you'll paid on fourth and fifth each way. SANTINI returned 33s having been 50s this morning with Paddy and others.
    Has the Grand National happened?

    When was that?
    17:28 according to Beeb:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/horse-racing/59813720
  • Some cheers but also some boos in the crowd in response to the national anthem.

    Still some sectarianism in Liverpool?

    Anger at the greatest injustice and blood libel in the history of the UK.

    The British state and the Conservatives are seen equally culpable.

    Ironically David Cameron and Dominic Grieve are seen as men of honour in Liverpool now
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quite a young crowd for Marine Le Pen in the south of France:

    https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/1512380938277249025

    It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs.
    But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
    But this might be like Brexit.

    British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)

    Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”

    France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
    I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.

    The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
    What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
    Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.


    More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
    Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
    France post revolution was not a great place to be
    Wasn't a great place to be before, either. They taxed the lower orders and workers and left the rich and idle alone. Ring any bells?
    Certainly not this government, everyone earning under £34,000 has actually seen a cut in their NI, with those earning over £100,000 seeing the biggest increase

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60996174
    I look forward to seeing you tell the proles theyt have never had it so good come the electoral campaigning.
    Not sure if it is the proles.

    We have plenty of young 'intellectuals' who defined pensioners as a generation of evil thieves on the basis of slightly more than a tenner a week extra through the triple lock over a decade.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    OMG. My wife picked Noble Yeats as her bet.



    Mazel Tov! Glad that your good wife has at last won a bet!! (Just kidding!!!)

    For some reason am thinking of Elizabeth Taylor & Mickey Rooney . . .

    National Velvet
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlYYnTDFlHM
This discussion has been closed.