It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.
Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.
If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.
I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
As are people being overdramatic about what people are predicting about the EU, since I see a list of tensions and one potential 'on the way' to being expelled rather than anything imminent. Hardly a prediction of collapse, but I suppose it makes it easier than the not in dispute fact that there are tensions over what to do re Ukraine in the EU - which is only right and natural of them, there are 27 members of course there are tensions.
Fair play to Boris. That takes some personal bravery (and it’s a very good photo op for them both)
Where do these linguistic things like 'fair play to' and 'fit for purpose' and 'approve this message' come from? I imagine that it might be the US (the last certainly) however why on earth would they want to butcher our shared language?
The above three examples just feel plain wrong (!!) to me
Fit for purpose was John Reid I believe describing what the home office was not
Yes. It is just a horrible phrase though. Simply wrong in some deep sense. (I'll quite happily defer to anyone that can point to long usage of such awfulness)
Sale of Goods Act, 1979 s14(3) If the buyer expressly or implicitly makes his purpose for the goods known to the seller, the seller is obliged to make sure the goods provided are fit for that purpose, if it is reasonable for the buyer to rely on the seller's expertise. An example of the application of this provision can be found in Godley v Perry.
'fit for that purpose' - seems proper English to me. 'fit for purpose' not.
I found his "not a shot in anger" indication about Afghanistan far, far more bizarre and indeed dishonest.
I was only (above) talking about the language used. Afghanistan has been and is a mess. The biggest mistake was the initial commitment.
There are no shots fired other than in anger. Defence is simply anger forced upon you. Attack is someone else's anger that you probably don't agree with.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
"Vote for X not the fascist" has worked at several French elections, I suppose it must stop working eventually.
If Le Pen loses again she is surely shown as not the answer, but where will her support go for next time?
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.
Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.
If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.
I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
I have not and am not predicting the collapse of the EU. But I do think it is at serious risk of fraying at the edges. I hope that I am wrong. On the plus side, I usually am.
Hasn’t it already frayed with the departure of UKnow who? Fortunately or unfortunately depending on one’s pov the pocket that held the EU cards didn’t fray completely.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
"Vote for X not the fascist" has worked at several French elections, I suppose it must stop working eventually.
If Le Pen loses again she is surely shown as not the answer, but where will her support go for next time?
The trouble is that only works when (they) are sort of a fascist and the mainstream candidate has better answers.
But, if they're not and they're not dealing with voters real concerns, then it backfires.
Today I met my friend President @ZelenskyyUa in Kyiv as a show of our unwavering support for the people of Ukraine.
We're setting out a new package of financial & military aid which is a testament of our commitment to his country's struggle against Russia’s barbaric campaign.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.
Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.
If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.
I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
As are people being overdramatic about what people are predicting about the EU, since I see a list of tensions and one potential 'on the way' to being expelled rather than anything imminent. Hardly a prediction of collapse, but I suppose it makes it easier than the not in dispute fact that there are tensions over what to do re Ukraine in the EU - which is only right and natural of them, there are 27 members of course there are tensions.
People often comment on the tensions in the UK over Ukraine. But actually, I'd argue that the unity of purpose within the EU over what to do about Ukraine/Russia is really pretty impressive, given the potential for differences arising from different relationships and/or dependencies with Russia.
It's fashionable to knock the EU, but its response to Ukraine has been pretty good.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.
Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.
If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.
I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
As are people being overdramatic about what people are predicting about the EU, since I see a list of tensions and one potential 'on the way' to being expelled rather than anything imminent. Hardly a prediction of collapse, but I suppose it makes it easier than the not in dispute fact that there are tensions over what to do re Ukraine in the EU - which is only right and natural of them, there are 27 members of course there are tensions.
Sure, differences of opinion are fundamental to dynamic political debate. It is a sign of democracy rather than a feature of its sickness.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.
Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.
If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.
I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
As are people being overdramatic about what people are predicting about the EU, since I see a list of tensions and one potential 'on the way' to being expelled rather than anything imminent. Hardly a prediction of collapse, but I suppose it makes it easier than the not in dispute fact that there are tensions over what to do re Ukraine in the EU - which is only right and natural of them, there are 27 members of course there are tensions.
People often comment on the tensions in the UK over Ukraine. But actually, I'd argue that the unity of purpose within the EU over what to do about Ukraine/Russia is really pretty impressive, given the potential for differences arising from different relationships and/or dependencies with Russia.
It's fashionable to knock the EU, but its response to Ukraine has been pretty good.
It has, I think they've moved quickly and decisively for such a large organisation, and some of its member states have had to operate some fairly drastic u-turns. It may not be as much as Ukraine wants or needs, but even with the praise on the UK we've not gone as far as they'd like either (eg rejecting pushing for a no fly zone), it's not knocking them to think they might struggle to maintain such coherence and unity as things develop and impacts would hit different parts harder - we already know the eastern members are more fiery in their rhetoric than those in the west.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.
Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.
If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.
I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
As are people being overdramatic about what people are predicting about the EU, since I see a list of tensions and one potential 'on the way' to being expelled rather than anything imminent. Hardly a prediction of collapse, but I suppose it makes it easier than the not in dispute fact that there are tensions over what to do re Ukraine in the EU - which is only right and natural of them, there are 27 members of course there are tensions.
Sure, differences of opinion are fundamental to dynamic political debate. It is a sign of democracy rather than a feature of its sickness.
I agree, but it will mean future options will become more tense as disagreements rise. That's not a matter of EU sickness, it's just the nature of such a broad polity. Democracy's benefits were never around efficiency of geopolitical action.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
"Vote for X not the fascist" has worked at several French elections, I suppose it must stop working eventually.
If Le Pen loses again she is surely shown as not the answer, but where will her support go for next time?
The trouble is that only works when (they) are sort of a fascist and the mainstream candidate has better answers.
But, if they're not and they're not dealing with voters real concerns, then it backfires.
Well she supports Putin, who certainly is a fascist and has supported his nonsense about blaming NATO for Russia's decisions. She's worked hard to bury her fascist past, but you can know a person from their friends, and Le Pen can just get in the fucking sea.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
"Vote for X not the fascist" has worked at several French elections, I suppose it must stop working eventually.
If Le Pen loses again she is surely shown as not the answer, but where will her support go for next time?
I dont think Le Pen is a fascist. Her party has some deeply unpleasant roots, bug the current Le Pen did chuck out her own father for anti-semitism.
She is a right wing populist with all the political incoherence that that entails, and will be very divisive, but France will not be Fascist.
While out reporting in Ukraine I’d say about three people a day tell me something along the lines of: “thanks to the British government for the weapons. When are we getting more?”
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
"Vote for X not the fascist" has worked at several French elections, I suppose it must stop working eventually.
If Le Pen loses again she is surely shown as not the answer, but where will her support go for next time?
The trouble is that only works when (they) are sort of a fascist and the mainstream candidate has better answers.
But, if they're not and they're not dealing with voters real concerns, then it backfires.
Well she supports Putin, who certainly is a fascist and has supported his nonsense about blaming NATO for Russia's decisions. She's worked hard to bury her fascist past, but you can know a person from their friends, and Le Pen can just get in the fucking sea.
Sure, but Macron is pretty timid with him too.
There's a strong pro Russian sentiment that runs in French politics on the basis the two countries should really "bookend" Europe in cooperation with each other.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
No, no, it's the royalists and exploiters who would be in le panier.
Today I met my friend President @ZelenskyyUa in Kyiv as a show of our unwavering support for the people of Ukraine.
We're setting out a new package of financial & military aid which is a testament of our commitment to his country's struggle against Russia’s barbaric campaign.
There's plenty of absolutely typical twitter replies to that, but I fear this one just confused me - my knowledge of Inbetweeners extends to knowing there was a movie based on a sitcom with that name and that's it. Given their disparity in age and appearence I'm not sure how both Boris and Zelensky give off that impression. Awe freeweendddddssssssss, you both look like inbetweeners 😂😂😂
Longhouse Poet looks either pumped or jittery depending on your point of view. I'd probably go for the latter. Might just be the noise of the crowds though.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.
Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.
If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.
I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
As are people being overdramatic about what people are predicting about the EU, since I see a list of tensions and one potential 'on the way' to being expelled rather than anything imminent. Hardly a prediction of collapse, but I suppose it makes it easier than the not in dispute fact that there are tensions over what to do re Ukraine in the EU - which is only right and natural of them, there are 27 members of course there are tensions.
People often comment on the tensions in the UK over Ukraine. But actually, I'd argue that the unity of purpose within the EU over what to do about Ukraine/Russia is really pretty impressive, given the potential for differences arising from different relationships and/or dependencies with Russia.
It's fashionable to knock the EU, but its response to Ukraine has been pretty good.
Whoops - in the first line I obviously meant to type EU, not UK.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.
Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.
If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.
I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
From a country in danger of losing Scotland... Ireland ....4% of our GDP ...... with a Chancellors wife who can't even bear to be domiciled here ......a Prime Minister soon to be charged....
Other than that the UK are in a perfect position to pontificate on the EU collapsing
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.
Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.
If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.
I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
As are people being overdramatic about what people are predicting about the EU, since I see a list of tensions and one potential 'on the way' to being expelled rather than anything imminent. Hardly a prediction of collapse, but I suppose it makes it easier than the not in dispute fact that there are tensions over what to do re Ukraine in the EU - which is only right and natural of them, there are 27 members of course there are tensions.
People often comment on the tensions in the UK over Ukraine. But actually, I'd argue that the unity of purpose within the EU over what to do about Ukraine/Russia is really pretty impressive, given the potential for differences arising from different relationships and/or dependencies with Russia.
It's fashionable to knock the EU, but its response to Ukraine has been pretty good.
It has, I think they've moved quickly and decisively for such a large organisation, and some of its member states have had to operate some fairly drastic u-turns. It may not be as much as Ukraine wants or needs, but even with the praise on the UK we've not gone as far as they'd like either (eg rejecting pushing for a no fly zone), it's not knocking them to think they might struggle to maintain such coherence and unity as things develop and impacts would hit different parts harder - we already know the eastern members are more fiery in their rhetoric than those in the west.
The central problem with the EU is that, fundamentally, everything is driven by the interests of Germany.
Push through a common currency when every basic economic test would argue against it? Sure, because Germany wipes away a key competitive advantage of countries like Italy and Spain, and also faces less default risk from loans to those countries;
Refuse to bail out Greece and let several countries in the EU effectively flog themselves and their people in sufferance rather than relieve at least some of the debt? Sure, because that is what Germany wants and it doesn’t want its banks to get seriously hit;
Rely on Russian oil and gas even when several countries are pointing to the alternative of other sources, such as Algeria, because you feel like you have a ‘special relationship’ with Russia? Sure, that will be Germany;
And that’s before we even get to the banning of hydrocarbons from Russia which would be an effective drain on the Russian economy.
I want Starmer's and Davey's wife to publish their tax return so the nation can see them. That they haven't done so already suggests that both obviously have something to hide. What is fair for Sunak should be fair for every other politician spouse orr even their children if they are old enough to earn money don't you all think?
Also: the lady is polyandrous, like an Arctic phalarope? Huge if true. I wonder if HMRC's tax rules over the marriage allowance can cope.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
No, no, it's the royalists and exploiters who would be in le panier.
Or more like the Macron elite now if the Le Pen revolution really took off
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
France post revolution was not a great place to be
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
Also a fine chemist's. But Lavoisier was a tax farmer on the side, so ...
BTW the Scots were using the guillotine centuries before, and also the good citizens of Halifax. Useless bit of info for a Saturday afternoon. The Maiden is still in the Museum of Scotland in Edinburgh.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
No, no, it's the royalists and exploiters who would be in le panier.
As I recall, both royalists and revolutionaries ended at the guillotine.
The alternative is that Boris does not recover or cocks up something else and someone else leads the Tories into the next election and is accordingly next PM. Quite hard to call on those 2 options but the lack of a clear successor now on the Tory side makes that side of the bet a lot less attractive.
If they had to make a quick unscheduled replacement in the event of (another) catastrophic Johnson fuck up the tories would just go for a safe pair of centrist hands in a 'save the furniture' strategy when defeat is inevitable. Maybe Rat Eyes?
Naah, they are all the way down the rabbit hole now. The Johnsonite wing of the party were pretty aggrieved by California Scheming pushing and briefing and not being a Boosterite knobber. So once the Big Dog inevitably craps on a lawn even he can't just ignore, surely they will anoint someone proper.
Remember that everything important is at stake. Important being the ability to trouser public money for their friends and patrons. The ability to degrade the public trust so that scrutiny can be dodged or even removed. The ability to reverse some of the worst excesses in the permissive society like Channel 4 and the Rule of Law.
So no, not Mad-Eye Hunt. They'll go for Javid. Or Williamson. Or Dorries.
What odds are you wanting?
Its a hypothetical. What would Big Dog need to do to get removed?
Not get a CON majority at the next election.
Johnson only needs to get ~315 seats like May in 2017 to retain power in 2024 and that is where the value betting lies IMO. Even a small majority can't be ruled out as Starmer is doing utterly terribly on the basis of real election results as we saw on Thursday night.
The visits of UvdL and Boris to Kyiv strike me as a crossing of the Rubicon, and a definite escalation of commitment. That's now the EU and UK making a very visible stand and, given the very strong personal remarks of Biden about Putin, there can be no walking away from Ukraine. It's a very strong message for Vlad. No backing down by the West. Interesting times ahead.
Some cheers but also some boos in the crowd in response to the national anthem.
Still some sectarianism in Liverpool?
Didn't you read some of the twitter comment about the Everton affair, the one which hit Labour in the electoral goolies this week? Could have come from Glasgow, right down to the ise of the expression 'bluenose', though I'm not clear as to which side is which (so to speak).
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.
Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.
If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.
I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
From a country in danger of losing Scotland Ireland 4% of our GDP and with a Chancellors wife who can't even bear to be domiciled here and a Prime Minister soon to be charged....
Other than that the UK are in a perfect position to pontificate on the EU collapsing
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
I am embracing the new spirit of the times and demanding severest punishments for the super rich and those who eat cake. I am currently ridding myself of my trousers in preparation of joining the new “sans cullottes” movement and will be marching on 11 Downing Street to free those domiciled therein.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
France post revolution was not a great place to be
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
France post revolution was not a great place to be
Anywhere post-revolution isn't a great place to be.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
France post revolution was not a great place to be
Wasn't a great place to be before, either. They taxed the lower orders and workers and left the rich and idle alone. Ring any bells?
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
France post revolution was not a great place to be
Joe Abercrombie's last book was basically a fantasy take on a french style revolution. Probably the most palatable way to comtemplate some of the madness that took hold at various parts.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
I am embracing the new spirit of the times and demanding severest punishments for the super rich and those who eat cake. I am currently ridding myself of my trousers in preparation of joining the new “sans cullottes” movement and will be marching on 11 Downing Street to free those domiciled therein.
No, no, no - culottes = breeches. It was loose trousers that the unwashed revolutionaries wore.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
No, no, it's the royalists and exploiters who would be in le panier.
As I recall, both royalists and revolutionaries ended at the guillotine.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
Lots of people are angry with Macron: civil servants, who now need to work significantly longer before accruing their gold plated pensions; employees at medium and larger firms, who are now significantly easier to let go.
Those changes needed to happen, and each President before Macron tried, and then gave up when faced with protests and strikes. He gets a lot of hate on here, but those reforms (which are really only the beginning) were much needed in France. It would be a shame to see someone with corbyn's economic policies come in, and drag France backwards.
It would certainly be a shame for France. For us, not so much.
If I was French I would (a) be very sad both in general and in the choice I was being given and (b) vote for him in the second round.
What we are seeing in the EU at the moment is a patina of unity bought on by the terrible events in Ukraine but beneath that there are serious tensions. If Hungary did not border Ulkraine it might well be on its way to being expelled for no longer being a working democracy. Germany is really struggling to reverse 40 years of policy and Poland is not that far behind Hungary in the democracy stakes.
I reckon they have a rocky few years ahead. It will be even worse if Macron loses.
PB predictions of the collapse of the EU are a true hardy perennial.
From a country in danger of losing Scotland Ireland 4% of our GDP and with a Chancellors wife who can't even bear to be domiciled here and a Prime Minister soon to be charged....
Other than that the UK are in a perfect position to pontificate on the EU collapsing
The problem is it is not a either or, but there are tensions in the EU, especially with Germany, and to try to deflect them is in some ways a denial of the evidence for all to see
Astonishing Here’s a thing: throughout this war, the Ukrainian postal service has kept working. We went out on a round with the indomitable Natalia, who was out delivering post and pensions in northern Kyiv even an hour after a shell hit a street corner on her route
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
France post revolution was not a great place to be
Wasn't a great place to be before, either. They taxed the lower orders and workers and left the rich and idle alone. Ring any bells?
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
I am embracing the new spirit of the times and demanding severest punishments for the super rich and those who eat cake. I am currently ridding myself of my trousers in preparation of joining the new “sans cullottes” movement and will be marching on 11 Downing Street to free those domiciled therein.
No, no, no - culottes = breeches. It was loose trousers that the unwashed revolutionaries wore.
Damn it, why can’t there be a style guide for revolutions. Knowing my luck I would have been standing next to Che Guevara in white tie and tales at this rate.
The alternative is that Boris does not recover or cocks up something else and someone else leads the Tories into the next election and is accordingly next PM. Quite hard to call on those 2 options but the lack of a clear successor now on the Tory side makes that side of the bet a lot less attractive.
If they had to make a quick unscheduled replacement in the event of (another) catastrophic Johnson fuck up the tories would just go for a safe pair of centrist hands in a 'save the furniture' strategy when defeat is inevitable. Maybe Rat Eyes?
Naah, they are all the way down the rabbit hole now. The Johnsonite wing of the party were pretty aggrieved by California Scheming pushing and briefing and not being a Boosterite knobber. So once the Big Dog inevitably craps on a lawn even he can't just ignore, surely they will anoint someone proper.
Remember that everything important is at stake. Important being the ability to trouser public money for their friends and patrons. The ability to degrade the public trust so that scrutiny can be dodged or even removed. The ability to reverse some of the worst excesses in the permissive society like Channel 4 and the Rule of Law.
So no, not Mad-Eye Hunt. They'll go for Javid. Or Williamson. Or Dorries.
What odds are you wanting?
Its a hypothetical. What would Big Dog need to do to get removed?
Not get a CON majority at the next election.
Johnson only needs to get ~315 seats like May in 2017 to retain power in 2024 and that is where the value betting lies IMO. Even a small majority can't be ruled out as Starmer is doing utterly terribly on the basis of real election results as we saw on Thursday night.
We'll get a pretty good idea of how likely Starmer is to become PM on 5th May.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
France post revolution was not a great place to be
Very few places are immediately post Revolution. Too many scores being settled.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
France post revolution was not a great place to be
Wasn't a great place to be before, either. They taxed the lower orders and workers and left the rich and idle alone. Ring any bells?
I love Mark Twain's extended quote on exactly this:
THERE were two “Reigns of Terror,” if we would but remember it and consider it; the one wrought murder in hot passion, the other in heartless cold blood; the one lasted mere months, the other had lasted a thousand years; the one inflicted death upon ten thousand persons, the other upon a hundred millions; but our shudders are all for the “horrors” of the minor Terror, the momentary Terror, so to speak; whereas, what is the horror of swift death by the axe, compared with lifelong death from hunger, cold, insult, cruelty, and heart-break? What is swift death by lightning compared with death by slow fire at the stake? A city cemetery could contain the coffins filled by that brief Terror which we have all been so diligently taught to shiver at and mourn over; but all France could hardly contain the coffins filled by that older and real Terror—that unspeakably bitter and awful Terror which none of us has been taught to see in its vastness or pity as it deserves.
The French Revolution was a good thing in the long view.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
France post revolution was not a great place to be
Wasn't a great place to be before, either. They taxed the lower orders and workers and left the rich and idle alone. Ring any bells?
Certainly not this government, everyone earning under £34,000 has actually seen a cut in their NI, with those earning over £100,000 seeing the biggest increase
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
France post revolution was not a great place to be
Wasn't a great place to be before, either. They taxed the lower orders and workers and left the rich and idle alone. Ring any bells?
Heaven?
For Johnsonian Tories, yes. Come to think of it, I wonder if a certain person, no I won't go there, that analogy is just too deplorable.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
France post revolution was not a great place to be
Anywhere post-revolution isn't a great place to be.
Arguably the American Revolution, unless you were a loyalist Tory who had not managed to move to Canada
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
France post revolution was not a great place to be
Wasn't a great place to be before, either. They taxed the lower orders and workers and left the rich and idle alone. Ring any bells?
Certainly not this government, everyone earning under £34,000 has actually seen a cut in their NI, with those earning over £100,000 seeing the biggest increase
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
I am embracing the new spirit of the times and demanding severest punishments for the super rich and those who eat cake. I am currently ridding myself of my trousers in preparation of joining the new “sans cullottes” movement and will be marching on 11 Downing Street to free those domiciled therein.
No, no, no - culottes = breeches. It was loose trousers that the unwashed revolutionaries wore.
Sans culottes. It was a posh folk who wore les culottes.
The alternative is that Boris does not recover or cocks up something else and someone else leads the Tories into the next election and is accordingly next PM. Quite hard to call on those 2 options but the lack of a clear successor now on the Tory side makes that side of the bet a lot less attractive.
If they had to make a quick unscheduled replacement in the event of (another) catastrophic Johnson fuck up the tories would just go for a safe pair of centrist hands in a 'save the furniture' strategy when defeat is inevitable. Maybe Rat Eyes?
Naah, they are all the way down the rabbit hole now. The Johnsonite wing of the party were pretty aggrieved by California Scheming pushing and briefing and not being a Boosterite knobber. So once the Big Dog inevitably craps on a lawn even he can't just ignore, surely they will anoint someone proper.
Remember that everything important is at stake. Important being the ability to trouser public money for their friends and patrons. The ability to degrade the public trust so that scrutiny can be dodged or even removed. The ability to reverse some of the worst excesses in the permissive society like Channel 4 and the Rule of Law.
So no, not Mad-Eye Hunt. They'll go for Javid. Or Williamson. Or Dorries.
What odds are you wanting?
Its a hypothetical. What would Big Dog need to do to get removed?
Not get a CON majority at the next election.
Johnson only needs to get ~315 seats like May in 2017 to retain power in 2024 and that is where the value betting lies IMO. Even a small majority can't be ruled out as Starmer is doing utterly terribly on the basis of real election results as we saw on Thursday night.
We'll get a pretty good idea of how likely Starmer is to become PM on 5th May.
I can see Labour falling flat, failing to gain any London councils and ending up tied in the NEV.
I'm currently reading Max Hasting's book on the Korean War. (Interested if anyone can suggest others)
There's a really striking parallel of a war busily destroying an innocent nation as a proxy for a far bigger argument.
(I don't think that it's quite true in either case - both wars are due to more domestic issues)
My own Daddy Dearest, a USMC veteran of Inchon and the Frozen Chosen, enjoyed MH's book but thought it was highly, occasionally absurdly Anglo-centric.
That said, he always credited the Royal Marines for helping to preserve his existence (along with his own efforts) when they ended up together in a very bad place at an extremely critical time, on the road to Hagaru.
Can recommend some books, at moment they are under a pile in my rumpus room, but lucky for you am just getting ready to continue my Spring cleaning! Will give you titles ASAP.
In meantime, Osprey publishing has several monographs re: Korean War, for example one on Inchon and couple on 1950 Chinese Winter offensive.
Speaking of that, my dad's uncle was bugging out with US Army on western side of North Korea, at same time he was "advancing to the rear" with the Marines on the eastern side. And they both blamed the same guy for their situation.
NOT President Harry Truman (though both were rock-ribbed Republicans). Instead, Gen. Douglas MacArthur.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
I am embracing the new spirit of the times and demanding severest punishments for the super rich and those who eat cake. I am currently ridding myself of my trousers in preparation of joining the new “sans cullottes” movement and will be marching on 11 Downing Street to free those domiciled therein.
No, no, no - culottes = breeches. It was loose trousers that the unwashed revolutionaries wore.
Sans culottes. It was a posh folk who wore les culottes.
Yes, that's the point. Boulay would have been debagging himself unnecessarily (assuming he's not currently wearing breeches, with or without silver buttons) and exposing his person, or at least underwear,. to all and sundry.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
Astonishing Here’s a thing: throughout this war, the Ukrainian postal service has kept working. We went out on a round with the indomitable Natalia, who was out delivering post and pensions in northern Kyiv even an hour after a shell hit a street corner on her route
The alternative is that Boris does not recover or cocks up something else and someone else leads the Tories into the next election and is accordingly next PM. Quite hard to call on those 2 options but the lack of a clear successor now on the Tory side makes that side of the bet a lot less attractive.
If they had to make a quick unscheduled replacement in the event of (another) catastrophic Johnson fuck up the tories would just go for a safe pair of centrist hands in a 'save the furniture' strategy when defeat is inevitable. Maybe Rat Eyes?
Naah, they are all the way down the rabbit hole now. The Johnsonite wing of the party were pretty aggrieved by California Scheming pushing and briefing and not being a Boosterite knobber. So once the Big Dog inevitably craps on a lawn even he can't just ignore, surely they will anoint someone proper.
Remember that everything important is at stake. Important being the ability to trouser public money for their friends and patrons. The ability to degrade the public trust so that scrutiny can be dodged or even removed. The ability to reverse some of the worst excesses in the permissive society like Channel 4 and the Rule of Law.
So no, not Mad-Eye Hunt. They'll go for Javid. Or Williamson. Or Dorries.
What odds are you wanting?
Its a hypothetical. What would Big Dog need to do to get removed?
Not get a CON majority at the next election.
Johnson only needs to get ~315 seats like May in 2017 to retain power in 2024 and that is where the value betting lies IMO. Even a small majority can't be ruled out as Starmer is doing utterly terribly on the basis of real election results as we saw on Thursday night.
We'll get a pretty good idea of how likely Starmer is to become PM on 5th May.
I can see Labour falling flat, failing to gain any London councils and ending up tied in the NEV.
(Hello jamesgraves, welcome to PB) I'd be amazed if Labour didn't do well. I think they'll gain Wandsworth, and that'll be a huge gain. I hope they don't gain Westminster because that's where I live. (Nobody wants a Labour council)
The alternative is that Boris does not recover or cocks up something else and someone else leads the Tories into the next election and is accordingly next PM. Quite hard to call on those 2 options but the lack of a clear successor now on the Tory side makes that side of the bet a lot less attractive.
If they had to make a quick unscheduled replacement in the event of (another) catastrophic Johnson fuck up the tories would just go for a safe pair of centrist hands in a 'save the furniture' strategy when defeat is inevitable. Maybe Rat Eyes?
Naah, they are all the way down the rabbit hole now. The Johnsonite wing of the party were pretty aggrieved by California Scheming pushing and briefing and not being a Boosterite knobber. So once the Big Dog inevitably craps on a lawn even he can't just ignore, surely they will anoint someone proper.
Remember that everything important is at stake. Important being the ability to trouser public money for their friends and patrons. The ability to degrade the public trust so that scrutiny can be dodged or even removed. The ability to reverse some of the worst excesses in the permissive society like Channel 4 and the Rule of Law.
So no, not Mad-Eye Hunt. They'll go for Javid. Or Williamson. Or Dorries.
What odds are you wanting?
Its a hypothetical. What would Big Dog need to do to get removed?
Not get a CON majority at the next election.
Johnson only needs to get ~315 seats like May in 2017 to retain power in 2024 and that is where the value betting lies IMO. Even a small majority can't be ruled out as Starmer is doing utterly terribly on the basis of real election results as we saw on Thursday night.
We'll get a pretty good idea of how likely Starmer is to become PM on 5th May.
I can see Labour falling flat, failing to gain any London councils and ending up tied in the NEV.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
France post revolution was not a great place to be
Wasn't a great place to be before, either. They taxed the lower orders and workers and left the rich and idle alone. Ring any bells?
I love Mark Twain's extended quote on exactly this:
THERE were two “Reigns of Terror,” if we would but remember it and consider it; the one wrought murder in hot passion, the other in heartless cold blood; the one lasted mere months, the other had lasted a thousand years; the one inflicted death upon ten thousand persons, the other upon a hundred millions; but our shudders are all for the “horrors” of the minor Terror, the momentary Terror, so to speak; whereas, what is the horror of swift death by the axe, compared with lifelong death from hunger, cold, insult, cruelty, and heart-break? What is swift death by lightning compared with death by slow fire at the stake? A city cemetery could contain the coffins filled by that brief Terror which we have all been so diligently taught to shiver at and mourn over; but all France could hardly contain the coffins filled by that older and real Terror—that unspeakably bitter and awful Terror which none of us has been taught to see in its vastness or pity as it deserves.
The French Revolution was a good thing in the long view.
Many horrible wars and brutal regimes, in the long run, may be considered to have led to good developments in the long run, and all will have been flash in the pan if taking a suitably long view. It may be true but it isn't particularly helpful to us either, as enduring something horrible now for sake of something better later will also be the phony defence of any number of awful tyrants for their current atrocities, and we won't really have any way of judging it.
After all, if this Ukrainian war led to vast improvements in many areas as Ukraine rebuilt and reordered itself, it might be argued by future historians it was actually a good thing, on balance.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
I am embracing the new spirit of the times and demanding severest punishments for the super rich and those who eat cake. I am currently ridding myself of my trousers in preparation of joining the new “sans cullottes” movement and will be marching on 11 Downing Street to free those domiciled therein.
No, no, no - culottes = breeches. It was loose trousers that the unwashed revolutionaries wore.
Sans culottes. It was a posh folk who wore les culottes.
Yes, that's the point. Boulay would have been debagging himself unnecessarily (assuming he's not currently wearing breeches, with or without silver buttons) and exposing his person, or at least underwear,. to all and sundry.
It’s a Saturday so debagging myself at some point and exposing my person to all and sundry is a given.
Enter the Dragon: China's Undeclared War Against the U.S. in Korea, 1950-1951 by Raymond Spurr
Looks at the war from perspective of China in general, in particular decision-making by Mao & etc., and also how these were implemented on the ground - and against my Daddy Dearest & etc. - in the snows of North Korea.
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
You're forgetting that in the end it was used on Robespierre himself...
The alternative is that Boris does not recover or cocks up something else and someone else leads the Tories into the next election and is accordingly next PM. Quite hard to call on those 2 options but the lack of a clear successor now on the Tory side makes that side of the bet a lot less attractive.
If they had to make a quick unscheduled replacement in the event of (another) catastrophic Johnson fuck up the tories would just go for a safe pair of centrist hands in a 'save the furniture' strategy when defeat is inevitable. Maybe Rat Eyes?
Naah, they are all the way down the rabbit hole now. The Johnsonite wing of the party were pretty aggrieved by California Scheming pushing and briefing and not being a Boosterite knobber. So once the Big Dog inevitably craps on a lawn even he can't just ignore, surely they will anoint someone proper.
Remember that everything important is at stake. Important being the ability to trouser public money for their friends and patrons. The ability to degrade the public trust so that scrutiny can be dodged or even removed. The ability to reverse some of the worst excesses in the permissive society like Channel 4 and the Rule of Law.
So no, not Mad-Eye Hunt. They'll go for Javid. Or Williamson. Or Dorries.
What odds are you wanting?
Its a hypothetical. What would Big Dog need to do to get removed?
Not get a CON majority at the next election.
Johnson only needs to get ~315 seats like May in 2017 to retain power in 2024 and that is where the value betting lies IMO. Even a small majority can't be ruled out as Starmer is doing utterly terribly on the basis of real election results as we saw on Thursday night.
We'll get a pretty good idea of how likely Starmer is to become PM on 5th May.
I can see Labour falling flat, failing to gain any London councils and ending up tied in the NEV.
(Hello jamesgraves, welcome to PB) I'd be amazed if Labour didn't do well. I think they'll gain Wandsworth, and that'll be a huge gain. I hope they don't gain Westminster because that's where I live. (Nobody wants a Labour council)
All 3 Wandsworth MPs are now Labour, Cities of London and Westminster is in the top 100 Labour target seats.
If he is on course to be PM, Starmer really needs Labour to gain Wandsworth and Westminster councils in May
The alternative is that Boris does not recover or cocks up something else and someone else leads the Tories into the next election and is accordingly next PM. Quite hard to call on those 2 options but the lack of a clear successor now on the Tory side makes that side of the bet a lot less attractive.
If they had to make a quick unscheduled replacement in the event of (another) catastrophic Johnson fuck up the tories would just go for a safe pair of centrist hands in a 'save the furniture' strategy when defeat is inevitable. Maybe Rat Eyes?
Naah, they are all the way down the rabbit hole now. The Johnsonite wing of the party were pretty aggrieved by California Scheming pushing and briefing and not being a Boosterite knobber. So once the Big Dog inevitably craps on a lawn even he can't just ignore, surely they will anoint someone proper.
Remember that everything important is at stake. Important being the ability to trouser public money for their friends and patrons. The ability to degrade the public trust so that scrutiny can be dodged or even removed. The ability to reverse some of the worst excesses in the permissive society like Channel 4 and the Rule of Law.
So no, not Mad-Eye Hunt. They'll go for Javid. Or Williamson. Or Dorries.
What odds are you wanting?
Its a hypothetical. What would Big Dog need to do to get removed?
Not get a CON majority at the next election.
Johnson only needs to get ~315 seats like May in 2017 to retain power in 2024 and that is where the value betting lies IMO. Even a small majority can't be ruled out as Starmer is doing utterly terribly on the basis of real election results as we saw on Thursday night.
We'll get a pretty good idea of how likely Starmer is to become PM on 5th May.
I can see Labour falling flat, failing to gain any London councils and ending up tied in the NEV.
(Hello jamesgraves, welcome to PB) I'd be amazed if Labour didn't do well. I think they'll gain Wandsworth, and that'll be a huge gain. I hope they don't gain Westminster because that's where I live. (Nobody wants a Labour council)
All 3 Wandsworth MPs are now Labour, Cities of London and Westminster is in the top 100 Labour target seats.
If he is on course to be PM, Starmer really needs Labour to gain Wandsworth and Westminster in May
We welcome @BorisJohnson in Kyiv, the first G7 leader to arrive in Ukraine since the beginning of the large-scale war. We are strengthening our union of democracies. Be brave, like Boris. Be brave, like Ukraine. #BRAVEUKRAINE
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
You're forgetting that in the end it was used on Robespierre himself...
Only after they had executed the King and Queen and most of the French aristocracy who had not managed to flee abroad
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
What’s French for “Basket of Deplorables”?
Here is a photo of a French basket for deplorables if that helps.
More likely a crowd of deplorables would be observing its use
Sure there were lots of bad aspects. But they cut a king's head off, so it wasn't all wrong.
France post revolution was not a great place to be
Wasn't a great place to be before, either. They taxed the lower orders and workers and left the rich and idle alone. Ring any bells?
I love Mark Twain's extended quote on exactly this:
THERE were two “Reigns of Terror,” if we would but remember it and consider it; the one wrought murder in hot passion, the other in heartless cold blood; the one lasted mere months, the other had lasted a thousand years; the one inflicted death upon ten thousand persons, the other upon a hundred millions; but our shudders are all for the “horrors” of the minor Terror, the momentary Terror, so to speak; whereas, what is the horror of swift death by the axe, compared with lifelong death from hunger, cold, insult, cruelty, and heart-break? What is swift death by lightning compared with death by slow fire at the stake? A city cemetery could contain the coffins filled by that brief Terror which we have all been so diligently taught to shiver at and mourn over; but all France could hardly contain the coffins filled by that older and real Terror—that unspeakably bitter and awful Terror which none of us has been taught to see in its vastness or pity as it deserves.
The French Revolution was a good thing in the long view.
What a proto-woke was "Mark Twain"! And NOT even willing to publish under his real name!
It's a bit rough for Macron seeing as practically he's done more than any other leader in Europe for French consumer energy costs. But I guess electorates don't do counterfactual gratitude.
But this might be like Brexit.
British voters listened to all the sensible economic arguments against Brexit and said Yeah well fuck that, we want sovereignty. They may have been deluded, swindled, wrong and/or evil, but polls show sovereignty was THE most important argument (even more than migration)
Sometimes it’s not always “the economy, stupid”
France MAY be approaching one of these inflection points. I remain highly skeptical that Le Pen can win, but it’s gonna be close
I don't see why Trump and Brexit can win, along with Orban and Law & Justice and Le Pen not.
The worst thing Macron and the "Establishment" in France could do is attack her as a fascist and her voters accordingly.
Comments
There are no shots fired other than in anger. Defence is simply anger forced upon you. Attack is someone else's anger that you probably don't agree with.
When Max Hastings isn't on his high-horse slagging off the British military establishment he can be a superb and highly insightful military historian.
If Le Pen loses again she is surely shown as not the answer, but where will her support go for next time?
But, if they're not and they're not dealing with voters real concerns, then it backfires.
We're setting out a new package of financial & military aid which is a testament of our commitment to his country's struggle against Russia’s barbaric campaign.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1512818337415372802
It's fashionable to knock the EU, but its response to Ukraine has been pretty good.
She is a right wing populist with all the political incoherence that that entails, and will be very divisive, but France will not be Fascist.
https://twitter.com/louiseelisabet/status/1512820971371126786?
There's a strong pro Russian sentiment that runs in French politics on the basis the two countries should really "bookend" Europe in cooperation with each other.
Awe freeweendddddssssssss, you both look like inbetweeners 😂😂😂
Other than that the UK are in a perfect position to pontificate on the EU collapsing
Push through a common currency when every basic economic test would argue against it? Sure, because Germany wipes away a key competitive advantage of countries like Italy and Spain, and also faces less default risk from loans to those countries;
Refuse to bail out Greece and let several countries in the EU effectively flog themselves and their people in sufferance rather than relieve at least some of the debt? Sure, because that is what Germany wants and it doesn’t want its banks to get seriously hit;
Rely on Russian oil and gas even when several countries are pointing to the alternative of other sources, such as Algeria, because you feel like you have a ‘special relationship’ with Russia? Sure, that will be Germany;
And that’s before we even get to the banning of hydrocarbons from Russia which would be an effective drain on the Russian economy.
I’m feeling more nervous than the jockeys right now
Still some sectarianism in Liverpool?
BTW the Scots were using the guillotine centuries before, and also the good citizens of Halifax. Useless bit of info for a Saturday afternoon. The Maiden is still in the Museum of Scotland in Edinburgh.
Zip. Thud.
Here’s a thing: throughout this war, the Ukrainian postal service has kept working. We went out on a round with the indomitable Natalia, who was out delivering post and pensions in northern Kyiv even an hour after a shell hit a street corner on her route
https://twitter.com/louiseelisabet/status/1511967736829775873?cxt=HHwWgsC4maupy_spAAAA
THERE were two “Reigns of Terror,” if we would but remember it and consider it; the one wrought murder in hot passion, the other in heartless cold blood; the one lasted mere months, the other had lasted a thousand years; the one inflicted death upon ten thousand persons, the other upon a hundred millions; but our shudders are all for the “horrors” of the minor Terror, the momentary Terror, so to speak; whereas, what is the horror of swift death by the axe, compared with lifelong death from hunger, cold, insult, cruelty, and heart-break? What is swift death by lightning compared with death by slow fire at the stake? A city cemetery could contain the coffins filled by that brief Terror which we have all been so diligently taught to shiver at and mourn over; but all France could hardly contain the coffins filled by that older and real Terror—that unspeakably bitter and awful Terror which none of us has been taught to see in its vastness or pity as it deserves.
The French Revolution was a good thing in the long view.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60996174
Unfortunately he has yet to write the third volume, and is 84….
That said, he always credited the Royal Marines for helping to preserve his existence (along with his own efforts) when they ended up together in a very bad place at an extremely critical time, on the road to Hagaru.
Can recommend some books, at moment they are under a pile in my rumpus room, but lucky for you am just getting ready to continue my Spring cleaning! Will give you titles ASAP.
In meantime, Osprey publishing has several monographs re: Korean War, for example one on Inchon and couple on 1950 Chinese Winter offensive.
Speaking of that, my dad's uncle was bugging out with US Army on western side of North Korea, at same time he was "advancing to the rear" with the Marines on the eastern side. And they both blamed the same guy for their situation.
NOT President Harry Truman (though both were rock-ribbed Republicans). Instead, Gen. Douglas MacArthur.
I'd be amazed if Labour didn't do well. I think they'll gain Wandsworth, and that'll be a huge gain. I hope they don't gain Westminster because that's where I live. (Nobody wants a Labour council)
After all, if this Ukrainian war led to vast improvements in many areas as Ukraine rebuilt and reordered itself, it might be argued by future historians it was actually a good thing, on balance.
Enter the Dragon: China's Undeclared War Against the U.S. in Korea, 1950-1951 by Raymond Spurr
Looks at the war from perspective of China in general, in particular decision-making by Mao & etc., and also how these were implemented on the ground - and against my Daddy Dearest & etc. - in the snows of North Korea.
If he is on course to be PM, Starmer really needs Labour to gain Wandsworth and Westminster councils in May
Be brave, like Boris.
Be brave, like Ukraine.
#BRAVEUKRAINE
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1512805153451225099
No places for me.