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The Granite State is looking fairly solid for Democrats this year – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited April 17 in General
imageThe Granite State is looking fairly solid for Democrats this year – politicalbetting.com

It’s not a good time for Democrats right now, but it’s going to get a lot worse. Nothing in Biden’s approval rating or other key indicators have changed my view from last November that the midterms coming up this year will see Republican gains – probably enough to give them control of both the House and the Senate.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,636
    1st
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    New Hampshire used to be a solid GOP state, being won by the GOP at every presidential election from 1948 to 1988 except 1964, then moved to a swing state, going for Clinton then Bush then Kerry but has since become pretty solid blue voting for Obama, Clinton and Biden. It looks like that will still hold in November.

    However, while I also expect the GOP to pick up the House in the midterms I would be less certain about the Senate given most of the seats up are already GOP held
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983
    Utterly O/T, is there anything over the past 50 years as unchanging as a box of Weetabix?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,910
    HYUFD said:

    New Hampshire used to be a solid GOP state, being won by the GOP at every presidential election from 1948 to 1988 except 1964, then moved to a swing state, going for Clinton then Bush then Kerry but has since become pretty solid blue voting for Obama, Clinton and Biden. It looks like that will still hold in November.

    However, while I also expect the GOP to pick up the House in the midterms I would be less certain about the Senate given most of the seats up are already GOP held

    I reckon the vulnerable defences for each party are:

    GOP - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina (just about), Florida (in theory)
    Dems - Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado (in theory)

    And the national picture is likely to be a strong year for the GOP, given how midterms usually go and Biden is far from remarkably popular.

    It isn't certain that the GOP take the Senate, but I'm happy with my 4/6 bets on them doing it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    Is granite so rare that a state is particularly known for having it?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,258
    Rumour going around of rumblings in Belarus this evening. Various ex soviet states encouraging their citizens to go home.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,910
    kle4 said:

    Is granite so rare that a state is particularly known for having it?

    Tell it to New Jersey, The Garden State,,,
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 43,638
    What happened to Jed Bartlett? Is he not still a player?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    Re the great Granite State, note that 45's anointed GOP hopeful to unseat Dem incumbent Chris Papas in NH 1st CD likes voting so much he did it twice in 2020 primaries:

    Guardian - Former Trump official voted in two states’ 2016 presidential primaries
    Matt Mowers’ double voting may have violated federal election law, at a time when Black voters have faced harsh penalties for unwitting violations

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/05/trump-official-voter-fraud-possibility-matt-mowers-two-states
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    BTW, Gov. Sununu is son of former governor, the one who saved George Bush the Elder's hide back in 1988 NH presidential primary
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234
    edited April 8
    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Hampshire used to be a solid GOP state, being won by the GOP at every presidential election from 1948 to 1988 except 1964, then moved to a swing state, going for Clinton then Bush then Kerry but has since become pretty solid blue voting for Obama, Clinton and Biden. It looks like that will still hold in November.

    However, while I also expect the GOP to pick up the House in the midterms I would be less certain about the Senate given most of the seats up are already GOP held

    I reckon the vulnerable defences for each party are:

    GOP - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina (just about), Florida (in theory)
    Dems - Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado (in theory)

    And the national picture is likely to be a strong year for the GOP, given how midterms usually go and Biden is far from remarkably popular.

    It isn't certain that the GOP take the Senate, but I'm happy with my 4/6 bets on them doing it.
    The Republicans only need to take one state, net, so it would be surprising if they didn't. Not impossible, but surprising.

    I suspect the Republicans will hold Wisconsin by a fairly comfortable margin, even though the shine has rather come off Senator Johnson. Pennsylvania is probably the Dems best hope of a pick-up, but I still think is a Republican hold.

    Ohio is a potential wildcard, but I'd expect that to be a fairly comfortable R hold too.

    Of the Dem seats, I think all of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are vulnerable, but I'm not so convinced by New Hampshire (incumbents get a big bonus there), or by Colorado (which swings further left by the year).

    Mark Kelly is personally popular in Arizona, but it's a purple state, and the Dems only just won it last year. I think he will struggle to hold it. Georgia is notionally harder for the Dems, but I think the Abrams GOTV operation is powerful, and I think it's entirely possible they do a good job there. (I think the Republicans may also pick a truly dreadful candidate.) More likely R than D, but not a big margin.

    Nevada would be a great gain for the Rs, and I think they stand a real chance there. Dems probably narrow favorites, but very narrow.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,910
    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Hampshire used to be a solid GOP state, being won by the GOP at every presidential election from 1948 to 1988 except 1964, then moved to a swing state, going for Clinton then Bush then Kerry but has since become pretty solid blue voting for Obama, Clinton and Biden. It looks like that will still hold in November.

    However, while I also expect the GOP to pick up the House in the midterms I would be less certain about the Senate given most of the seats up are already GOP held

    I reckon the vulnerable defences for each party are:

    GOP - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina (just about), Florida (in theory)
    Dems - Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado (in theory)

    And the national picture is likely to be a strong year for the GOP, given how midterms usually go and Biden is far from remarkably popular.

    It isn't certain that the GOP take the Senate, but I'm happy with my 4/6 bets on them doing it.
    The Republicans only need to take one state, net, so it would be surprising if they didn't. Not impossible, but surprising.

    I suspect the Republicans will hold Wisconsin by a fairly comfortable margin, even though the shine has rather come off Senator Johnson. Pennsylvania is probably the Dems best hope of a pick-up, but I still think is a Republican hold.

    Ohio is a potential wildcard, but I'd expect that to be a fairly comfortable R hold too.

    Of the Dem seats, I think all of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are vulnerable, but I'm not so convinced by New Hampshire (incumbents get a big bonus there), or by Colorado (which swings further left by the year).

    Mark Kelly is personally popular in Arizona, but it's a purple state, and the Dems only just won it last year. I think he will struggle to hold it. Georgia is notionally harder for the Dems, but I think the Abrams GOTV operation is powerful, and I think it's entirely possible they do a good job there. (I think the Republicans may also pick a truly dreadful candidate.) More likely R than D, but not a big margin.

    Nevada would be a great gain for the Rs, and I think they stand a real chance there. Dems probably narrow favorites, but very narrow.
    Funny you mention the GOP candidate in Georgia. I may have an article referencing this coming up in a week or two...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 6,958
    New Hampshire is one of the few American states that I know even a bit. To me, it is the USA at its best, both in terms of general loveliness and in terms of its political culture. I mean - "Live Free or Die" - the boldness of it is as invigorating as the scenery. No Vermonty BenandJerry milksoppery here, nor metropolitan Bostonian urbanity. I could be happy in many places in America, but in few I think I could feel as at home as New Hampshire. If only I had the practicality to live up to my own ideals...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited April 8
    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Hampshire used to be a solid GOP state, being won by the GOP at every presidential election from 1948 to 1988 except 1964, then moved to a swing state, going for Clinton then Bush then Kerry but has since become pretty solid blue voting for Obama, Clinton and Biden. It looks like that will still hold in November.

    However, while I also expect the GOP to pick up the House in the midterms I would be less certain about the Senate given most of the seats up are already GOP held

    I reckon the vulnerable defences for each party are:

    GOP - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina (just about), Florida (in theory)
    Dems - Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado (in theory)

    And the national picture is likely to be a strong year for the GOP, given how midterms usually go and Biden is far from remarkably popular.

    It isn't certain that the GOP take the Senate, but I'm happy with my 4/6 bets on them doing it.
    The Republicans only need to take one state, net, so it would be surprising if they didn't. Not impossible, but surprising.

    I suspect the Republicans will hold Wisconsin by a fairly comfortable margin, even though the shine has rather come off Senator Johnson. Pennsylvania is probably the Dems best hope of a pick-up, but I still think is a Republican hold.

    Ohio is a potential wildcard, but I'd expect that to be a fairly comfortable R hold too.

    Of the Dem seats, I think all of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are vulnerable, but I'm not so convinced by New Hampshire (incumbents get a big bonus there), or by Colorado (which swings further left by the year).

    Mark Kelly is personally popular in Arizona, but it's a purple state, and the Dems only just won it last year. I think he will struggle to hold it. Georgia is notionally harder for the Dems, but I think the Abrams GOTV operation is powerful, and I think it's entirely possible they do a good job there. (I think the Republicans may also pick a truly dreadful candidate.) More likely R than D, but not a big margin.

    Nevada would be a great gain for the Rs, and I think they stand a real chance there. Dems probably narrow favorites, but very narrow.
    The Democrats lead in the Pennsylvania Senate polling, even if a few months old

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    kle4 said:

    Is granite so rare that a state is particularly known for having it?

    Other way around; hard to find anything BUT rocks in a New Hampshire field!
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,522
    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Hampshire used to be a solid GOP state, being won by the GOP at every presidential election from 1948 to 1988 except 1964, then moved to a swing state, going for Clinton then Bush then Kerry but has since become pretty solid blue voting for Obama, Clinton and Biden. It looks like that will still hold in November.

    However, while I also expect the GOP to pick up the House in the midterms I would be less certain about the Senate given most of the seats up are already GOP held

    I reckon the vulnerable defences for each party are:

    GOP - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina (just about), Florida (in theory)
    Dems - Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado (in theory)

    And the national picture is likely to be a strong year for the GOP, given how midterms usually go and Biden is far from remarkably popular.

    It isn't certain that the GOP take the Senate, but I'm happy with my 4/6 bets on them doing it.
    The Republicans only need to take one state, net, so it would be surprising if they didn't. Not impossible, but surprising.

    I suspect the Republicans will hold Wisconsin by a fairly comfortable margin, even though the shine has rather come off Senator Johnson. Pennsylvania is probably the Dems best hope of a pick-up, but I still think is a Republican hold.

    Ohio is a potential wildcard, but I'd expect that to be a fairly comfortable R hold too.

    Of the Dem seats, I think all of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are vulnerable, but I'm not so convinced by New Hampshire (incumbents get a big bonus there), or by Colorado (which swings further left by the year).

    Mark Kelly is personally popular in Arizona, but it's a purple state, and the Dems only just won it last year. I think he will struggle to hold it. Georgia is notionally harder for the Dems, but I think the Abrams GOTV operation is powerful, and I think it's entirely possible they do a good job there. (I think the Republicans may also pick a truly dreadful candidate.) More likely R than D, but not a big margin.

    Nevada would be a great gain for the Rs, and I think they stand a real chance there. Dems probably narrow favorites, but very narrow.
    Re the Senate seats:

    - Johnson - might have been hard but WI looks to be swinging more R (look at he Waukesha school board election for straws in the wind). Probably also helps he called Hunter Biden’s laptop right. Probably wins;
    - PA: Republican new registrations running x4 that of Democrats. Usually a pretty good precursor:
    - NH: agreed that probably more a D hold, however @Quincel failed to point out (no offence) Hassan struggling to get above mid-40s ie a lot of undecideds whom impossible to know how they split;
    -NV - Cortez probably in trouble. Hispanic WC moving more rightward and state is pro-opening up;
    - GA - Biden a drag (hence Abrams not appearing with him). More of the worst abuses (drop your ballot off with no checks) being removed. R win
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    Quincel said:

    kle4 said:

    Is granite so rare that a state is particularly known for having it?

    Tell it to New Jersey, The Garden State,,,
    Same deal; southern New Jersey in particular famous for what (used to be called anyway) truck gardens, that is producing vegetables and the like for city slickers (and suburban slackers) in New York City and Philadelphia.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Hampshire used to be a solid GOP state, being won by the GOP at every presidential election from 1948 to 1988 except 1964, then moved to a swing state, going for Clinton then Bush then Kerry but has since become pretty solid blue voting for Obama, Clinton and Biden. It looks like that will still hold in November.

    However, while I also expect the GOP to pick up the House in the midterms I would be less certain about the Senate given most of the seats up are already GOP held

    I reckon the vulnerable defences for each party are:

    GOP - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina (just about), Florida (in theory)
    Dems - Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado (in theory)

    And the national picture is likely to be a strong year for the GOP, given how midterms usually go and Biden is far from remarkably popular.

    It isn't certain that the GOP take the Senate, but I'm happy with my 4/6 bets on them doing it.
    The Republicans only need to take one state, net, so it would be surprising if they didn't. Not impossible, but surprising.

    I suspect the Republicans will hold Wisconsin by a fairly comfortable margin, even though the shine has rather come off Senator Johnson. Pennsylvania is probably the Dems best hope of a pick-up, but I still think is a Republican hold.

    Ohio is a potential wildcard, but I'd expect that to be a fairly comfortable R hold too.

    Of the Dem seats, I think all of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are vulnerable, but I'm not so convinced by New Hampshire (incumbents get a big bonus there), or by Colorado (which swings further left by the year).

    Mark Kelly is personally popular in Arizona, but it's a purple state, and the Dems only just won it last year. I think he will struggle to hold it. Georgia is notionally harder for the Dems, but I think the Abrams GOTV operation is powerful, and I think it's entirely possible they do a good job there. (I think the Republicans may also pick a truly dreadful candidate.) More likely R than D, but not a big margin.

    Nevada would be a great gain for the Rs, and I think they stand a real chance there. Dems probably narrow favorites, but very narrow.
    Re the Senate seats:

    - Johnson - might have been hard but WI looks to be swinging more R (look at he Waukesha school board election for straws in the wind). Probably also helps he called Hunter Biden’s laptop right. Probably wins;
    - PA: Republican new registrations running x4 that of Democrats. Usually a pretty good precursor:
    - NH: agreed that probably more a D hold, however @Quincel failed to point out (no offence) Hassan struggling to get above mid-40s ie a lot of undecideds whom impossible to know how they split;
    -NV - Cortez probably in trouble. Hispanic WC moving more rightward and state is pro-opening up;
    - GA - Biden a drag (hence Abrams not appearing with him). More of the worst abuses (drop your ballot off with no checks) being removed. R win
    Speaking of Georgia & abuses, have you checked out Hershel Walker's record re: domestic violence?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,522
    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Hampshire used to be a solid GOP state, being won by the GOP at every presidential election from 1948 to 1988 except 1964, then moved to a swing state, going for Clinton then Bush then Kerry but has since become pretty solid blue voting for Obama, Clinton and Biden. It looks like that will still hold in November.

    However, while I also expect the GOP to pick up the House in the midterms I would be less certain about the Senate given most of the seats up are already GOP held

    I reckon the vulnerable defences for each party are:

    GOP - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina (just about), Florida (in theory)
    Dems - Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado (in theory)

    And the national picture is likely to be a strong year for the GOP, given how midterms usually go and Biden is far from remarkably popular.

    It isn't certain that the GOP take the Senate, but I'm happy with my 4/6 bets on them doing it.
    The Republicans only need to take one state, net, so it would be surprising if they didn't. Not impossible, but surprising.

    I suspect the Republicans will hold Wisconsin by a fairly comfortable margin, even though the shine has rather come off Senator Johnson. Pennsylvania is probably the Dems best hope of a pick-up, but I still think is a Republican hold.

    Ohio is a potential wildcard, but I'd expect that to be a fairly comfortable R hold too.

    Of the Dem seats, I think all of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are vulnerable, but I'm not so convinced by New Hampshire (incumbents get a big bonus there), or by Colorado (which swings further left by the year).

    Mark Kelly is personally popular in Arizona, but it's a purple state, and the Dems only just won it last year. I think he will struggle to hold it. Georgia is notionally harder for the Dems, but I think the Abrams GOTV operation is powerful, and I think it's entirely possible they do a good job there. (I think the Republicans may also pick a truly dreadful candidate.) More likely R than D, but not a big margin.

    Nevada would be a great gain for the Rs, and I think they stand a real chance there. Dems probably narrow favorites, but very narrow.
    Re the Senate seats:

    - Johnson - might have been hard but WI looks to be swinging more R (look at he Waukesha school board election for straws in the wind). Probably also helps he called Hunter Biden’s laptop right. Probably wins;
    - PA: Republican new registrations running x4 that of Democrats. Usually a pretty good precursor:
    - NH: agreed that probably more a D hold, however @Quincel failed to point out (no offence) Hassan struggling to get above mid-40s ie a lot of undecideds whom impossible to know how they split;
    -NV - Cortez probably in trouble. Hispanic WC moving more rightward and state is pro-opening up;
    - GA - Biden a drag (hence Abrams not appearing with him). More of the worst abuses (drop your ballot off with no checks) being removed. R win
    Oh, AZ:

    - Kelly looking weak compared with Sinema’s stance. Border crossing issues not helping. Hispanic pop again moving rightward. Probably R win

  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 447
    "Chuck Morse, a longstanding politician who leads the Republican minority in the state senate."

    According to Wikipedia, Chuck Morse is president of the New Hampshire senate, thanks to the Republicans winning a 14-10 majority in 2020. (Republicans also control the New Hamshire house.)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_Senate

    (By the way, the pay for legislators in New Hamshire is a munificent "$200/term + mileage". Which may help explain why there are currently 10 vacancies in the 400 member house.)

  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 447
    (I can spell New Hampshire -- I'm just not a very good typist.)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    Cookie said:

    New Hampshire is one of the few American states that I know even a bit. To me, it is the USA at its best, both in terms of general loveliness and in terms of its political culture. I mean - "Live Free or Die" - the boldness of it is as invigorating as the scenery. No Vermonty BenandJerry milksoppery here, nor metropolitan Bostonian urbanity. I could be happy in many places in America, but in few I think I could feel as at home as New Hampshire. If only I had the practicality to live up to my own ideals...

    Speaking of Boston, New Hampshire swung Democratic largely because of influx of . . . wait for it . . . Bostonians, or at least Bay Staters.

    This at same time that traditional Democratic working class voters in places like Nashua and Berlin (pronounced "BER'lynn") often of French Canadian and Irish heritage, were swinging away from Dems to GOP.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,383
    Good article, I have a lot of time for Governor Sununu.

    One correction though, Chuck Morse is the Republican Majority leader in the State Senate, not the Republican Minority Leader.

    The New Hampshire Republicans 'Flipped the Senate in 2020, and now have a 14-10 majority in it.

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,522

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Hampshire used to be a solid GOP state, being won by the GOP at every presidential election from 1948 to 1988 except 1964, then moved to a swing state, going for Clinton then Bush then Kerry but has since become pretty solid blue voting for Obama, Clinton and Biden. It looks like that will still hold in November.

    However, while I also expect the GOP to pick up the House in the midterms I would be less certain about the Senate given most of the seats up are already GOP held

    I reckon the vulnerable defences for each party are:

    GOP - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina (just about), Florida (in theory)
    Dems - Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado (in theory)

    And the national picture is likely to be a strong year for the GOP, given how midterms usually go and Biden is far from remarkably popular.

    It isn't certain that the GOP take the Senate, but I'm happy with my 4/6 bets on them doing it.
    The Republicans only need to take one state, net, so it would be surprising if they didn't. Not impossible, but surprising.

    I suspect the Republicans will hold Wisconsin by a fairly comfortable margin, even though the shine has rather come off Senator Johnson. Pennsylvania is probably the Dems best hope of a pick-up, but I still think is a Republican hold.

    Ohio is a potential wildcard, but I'd expect that to be a fairly comfortable R hold too.

    Of the Dem seats, I think all of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are vulnerable, but I'm not so convinced by New Hampshire (incumbents get a big bonus there), or by Colorado (which swings further left by the year).

    Mark Kelly is personally popular in Arizona, but it's a purple state, and the Dems only just won it last year. I think he will struggle to hold it. Georgia is notionally harder for the Dems, but I think the Abrams GOTV operation is powerful, and I think it's entirely possible they do a good job there. (I think the Republicans may also pick a truly dreadful candidate.) More likely R than D, but not a big margin.

    Nevada would be a great gain for the Rs, and I think they stand a real chance there. Dems probably narrow favorites, but very narrow.
    Re the Senate seats:

    - Johnson - might have been hard but WI looks to be swinging more R (look at he Waukesha school board election for straws in the wind). Probably also helps he called Hunter Biden’s laptop right. Probably wins;
    - PA: Republican new registrations running x4 that of Democrats. Usually a pretty good precursor:
    - NH: agreed that probably more a D hold, however @Quincel failed to point out (no offence) Hassan struggling to get above mid-40s ie a lot of undecideds whom impossible to know how they split;
    -NV - Cortez probably in trouble. Hispanic WC moving more rightward and state is pro-opening up;
    - GA - Biden a drag (hence Abrams not appearing with him). More of the worst abuses (drop your ballot off with no checks) being removed. R win
    Speaking of Georgia & abuses, have you checked out Hershel Walker's record re: domestic violence?
    I have indeed, have you checked out Raphael Warnock’s record of being a raging anti-Semite?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088

    (I can spell New Hampshire -- I'm just not a very good typist.)

    New Hamshire sounds better anyway.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,574
    Has Mrs Sunak just taken a ton of future tax income away from the Indian government and given it to UK?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Hampshire used to be a solid GOP state, being won by the GOP at every presidential election from 1948 to 1988 except 1964, then moved to a swing state, going for Clinton then Bush then Kerry but has since become pretty solid blue voting for Obama, Clinton and Biden. It looks like that will still hold in November.

    However, while I also expect the GOP to pick up the House in the midterms I would be less certain about the Senate given most of the seats up are already GOP held

    I reckon the vulnerable defences for each party are:

    GOP - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina (just about), Florida (in theory)
    Dems - Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado (in theory)

    And the national picture is likely to be a strong year for the GOP, given how midterms usually go and Biden is far from remarkably popular.

    It isn't certain that the GOP take the Senate, but I'm happy with my 4/6 bets on them doing it.
    The Republicans only need to take one state, net, so it would be surprising if they didn't. Not impossible, but surprising.

    I suspect the Republicans will hold Wisconsin by a fairly comfortable margin, even though the shine has rather come off Senator Johnson. Pennsylvania is probably the Dems best hope of a pick-up, but I still think is a Republican hold.

    Ohio is a potential wildcard, but I'd expect that to be a fairly comfortable R hold too.

    Of the Dem seats, I think all of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are vulnerable, but I'm not so convinced by New Hampshire (incumbents get a big bonus there), or by Colorado (which swings further left by the year).

    Mark Kelly is personally popular in Arizona, but it's a purple state, and the Dems only just won it last year. I think he will struggle to hold it. Georgia is notionally harder for the Dems, but I think the Abrams GOTV operation is powerful, and I think it's entirely possible they do a good job there. (I think the Republicans may also pick a truly dreadful candidate.) More likely R than D, but not a big margin.

    Nevada would be a great gain for the Rs, and I think they stand a real chance there. Dems probably narrow favorites, but very narrow.
    Re the Senate seats:

    - Johnson - might have been hard but WI looks to be swinging more R (look at he Waukesha school board election for straws in the wind). Probably also helps he called Hunter Biden’s laptop right. Probably wins;
    - PA: Republican new registrations running x4 that of Democrats. Usually a pretty good precursor:
    - NH: agreed that probably more a D hold, however @Quincel failed to point out (no offence) Hassan struggling to get above mid-40s ie a lot of undecideds whom impossible to know how they split;
    -NV - Cortez probably in trouble. Hispanic WC moving more rightward and state is pro-opening up;
    - GA - Biden a drag (hence Abrams not appearing with him). More of the worst abuses (drop your ballot off with no checks) being removed. R win
    Speaking of Georgia & abuses, have you checked out Hershel Walker's record re: domestic violence?
    I have indeed, have you checked out Raphael Warnock’s record of being a raging anti-Semite?
    Sounds like a great bunch of candidates.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    Just for fun, and on theme of New Hampshire "independence" check this out:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Indian_Stream
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 447
    Assuming these numbers are correct, Democrats have a small edge in party registration: https://sos.nh.gov/elections/voters/voting-in-new-hampshire/party-registration-names-on-checklist-history/

    In the past, I would have said that, 2022 being an off-year election, and Republicans having a greter likelhood of voting than Democrats, the registration numbers would suggest a small GOP advantage in this year's election. But Trump has so upset things, I can't be sure that those old patterns hold.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,522

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Hampshire used to be a solid GOP state, being won by the GOP at every presidential election from 1948 to 1988 except 1964, then moved to a swing state, going for Clinton then Bush then Kerry but has since become pretty solid blue voting for Obama, Clinton and Biden. It looks like that will still hold in November.

    However, while I also expect the GOP to pick up the House in the midterms I would be less certain about the Senate given most of the seats up are already GOP held

    I reckon the vulnerable defences for each party are:

    GOP - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina (just about), Florida (in theory)
    Dems - Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado (in theory)

    And the national picture is likely to be a strong year for the GOP, given how midterms usually go and Biden is far from remarkably popular.

    It isn't certain that the GOP take the Senate, but I'm happy with my 4/6 bets on them doing it.
    The Republicans only need to take one state, net, so it would be surprising if they didn't. Not impossible, but surprising.

    I suspect the Republicans will hold Wisconsin by a fairly comfortable margin, even though the shine has rather come off Senator Johnson. Pennsylvania is probably the Dems best hope of a pick-up, but I still think is a Republican hold.

    Ohio is a potential wildcard, but I'd expect that to be a fairly comfortable R hold too.

    Of the Dem seats, I think all of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are vulnerable, but I'm not so convinced by New Hampshire (incumbents get a big bonus there), or by Colorado (which swings further left by the year).

    Mark Kelly is personally popular in Arizona, but it's a purple state, and the Dems only just won it last year. I think he will struggle to hold it. Georgia is notionally harder for the Dems, but I think the Abrams GOTV operation is powerful, and I think it's entirely possible they do a good job there. (I think the Republicans may also pick a truly dreadful candidate.) More likely R than D, but not a big margin.

    Nevada would be a great gain for the Rs, and I think they stand a real chance there. Dems probably narrow favorites, but very narrow.
    Re the Senate seats:

    - Johnson - might have been hard but WI looks to be swinging more R (look at he Waukesha school board election for straws in the wind). Probably also helps he called Hunter Biden’s laptop right. Probably wins;
    - PA: Republican new registrations running x4 that of Democrats. Usually a pretty good precursor:
    - NH: agreed that probably more a D hold, however @Quincel failed to point out (no offence) Hassan struggling to get above mid-40s ie a lot of undecideds whom impossible to know how they split;
    -NV - Cortez probably in trouble. Hispanic WC moving more rightward and state is pro-opening up;
    - GA - Biden a drag (hence Abrams not appearing with him). More of the worst abuses (drop your ballot off with no checks) being removed. R win
    Speaking of Georgia & abuses, have you checked out Hershel Walker's record re: domestic violence?
    Oh speaking of domestic violence perpetrators…

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9089791/amp/Raphael-Warnock-dodges-questions-video-ex-wife-accusing-running-foot.html
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Hampshire used to be a solid GOP state, being won by the GOP at every presidential election from 1948 to 1988 except 1964, then moved to a swing state, going for Clinton then Bush then Kerry but has since become pretty solid blue voting for Obama, Clinton and Biden. It looks like that will still hold in November.

    However, while I also expect the GOP to pick up the House in the midterms I would be less certain about the Senate given most of the seats up are already GOP held

    I reckon the vulnerable defences for each party are:

    GOP - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina (just about), Florida (in theory)
    Dems - Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado (in theory)

    And the national picture is likely to be a strong year for the GOP, given how midterms usually go and Biden is far from remarkably popular.

    It isn't certain that the GOP take the Senate, but I'm happy with my 4/6 bets on them doing it.
    The Republicans only need to take one state, net, so it would be surprising if they didn't. Not impossible, but surprising.

    I suspect the Republicans will hold Wisconsin by a fairly comfortable margin, even though the shine has rather come off Senator Johnson. Pennsylvania is probably the Dems best hope of a pick-up, but I still think is a Republican hold.

    Ohio is a potential wildcard, but I'd expect that to be a fairly comfortable R hold too.

    Of the Dem seats, I think all of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are vulnerable, but I'm not so convinced by New Hampshire (incumbents get a big bonus there), or by Colorado (which swings further left by the year).

    Mark Kelly is personally popular in Arizona, but it's a purple state, and the Dems only just won it last year. I think he will struggle to hold it. Georgia is notionally harder for the Dems, but I think the Abrams GOTV operation is powerful, and I think it's entirely possible they do a good job there. (I think the Republicans may also pick a truly dreadful candidate.) More likely R than D, but not a big margin.

    Nevada would be a great gain for the Rs, and I think they stand a real chance there. Dems probably narrow favorites, but very narrow.
    Re the Senate seats:

    - Johnson - might have been hard but WI looks to be swinging more R (look at he Waukesha school board election for straws in the wind). Probably also helps he called Hunter Biden’s laptop right. Probably wins;
    - PA: Republican new registrations running x4 that of Democrats. Usually a pretty good precursor:
    - NH: agreed that probably more a D hold, however @Quincel failed to point out (no offence) Hassan struggling to get above mid-40s ie a lot of undecideds whom impossible to know how they split;
    -NV - Cortez probably in trouble. Hispanic WC moving more rightward and state is pro-opening up;
    - GA - Biden a drag (hence Abrams not appearing with him). More of the worst abuses (drop your ballot off with no checks) being removed. R win
    Speaking of Georgia & abuses, have you checked out Hershel Walker's record re: domestic violence?
    I have indeed, have you checked out Raphael Warnock’s record of being a raging anti-Semite?
    You mean, like this?

    https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-georgia-s-glorious-black-jewish-alliance-triumphs-over-pro-trump-mob-1.9427385
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,721
    edited April 8
    Cookie said:

    New Hampshire is one of the few American states that I know even a bit. To me, it is the USA at its best, both in terms of general loveliness and in terms of its political culture. I mean - "Live Free or Die" - the boldness of it is as invigorating as the scenery. No Vermonty BenandJerry milksoppery here, nor metropolitan Bostonian urbanity. I could be happy in many places in America, but in few I think I could feel as at home as New Hampshire. If only I had the practicality to live up to my own ideals...

    Washington State for me.
    Rainy, green and temperate. And nobody sticks their nose into your bedroom.
    Unless invited naturellement.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,721

    Has Mrs Sunak just taken a ton of future tax income away from the Indian government and given it to UK?

    For which much thanks.
    Her husband's only in charge of collecting it after all.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,662
    dixiedean said:

    Has Mrs Sunak just taken a ton of future tax income away from the Indian government and given it to UK?

    For which much thanks.
    Her husband's only in charge of collecting it after all.
    That assumes she was paying a ton of tax to the Indian government.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 447
    "Washington State for me.
    Rainy, green and temperate. "

    Half right. I grew up in eastern Washington, where one of my jobs as a kid was to make sure we were getting all the irrigation water we were paying for.

    East of the Cascades, which divide the state north-to-south, Washington is quite dry, and has a more continental climate than west of the Cascades.

    (Although many see the Cascades as a political boundary, too, I think it more accurate to see the state as divided between rural and urban, rather than east and west.)
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,194
    dixiedean said:

    Has Mrs Sunak just taken a ton of future tax income away from the Indian government and given it to UK?

    For which much thanks.
    Her husband's only in charge of collecting it after all.
    I would expect Mrs Sunak would pay the same amount of indian tax as before. Under international double taxation rules the source country has primary taxing rights with the country of residence giving credit for the tax paid overseas.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,174

    Utterly O/T, is there anything over the past 50 years as unchanging as a box of Weetabix?

    Have they not shrunk?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983

    Utterly O/T, is there anything over the past 50 years as unchanging as a box of Weetabix?

    Have they not shrunk?
    No, I really think they are identical.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    By coincidence Die Hard 4.0 was on "Great Movies" just now :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647

    Has Mrs Sunak just taken a ton of future tax income away from the Indian government and given it to UK?

    Very few Indians pay income taxes. So, millions of them evade taxes and hide their incomes is the popular notion. But this is a big myth. India has very few taxpayers not because millions of them are hiding their incomes and evading taxes. It is because India’s income tax structure is designed in a way that allows only for a small percentage of people to pay income tax.

    Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/why-so-few-indians-pay-income-tax
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,449

    Utterly O/T, is there anything over the past 50 years as unchanging as a box of Weetabix?

    Nigel Farage's yellow pants
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,449

    Has Mrs Sunak just taken a ton of future tax income away from the Indian government and given it to UK?

    No
  • PensfoldPensfold Posts: 191
    If India was on Ukraine's side rather than Russia's side then the Sunaks might not be getting such a hard time.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,707

    Utterly O/T, is there anything over the past 50 years as unchanging as a box of Weetabix?

    It is a blessed constant in a changing world.

    Though I miss the things like the free Doctor Who cards from the 70s; or the cut-out-and-glue 3d models of Star Trek ships.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627
    Savanta ComRes still blatantly breaching British Polling Council Rules. Their latest poll was published 5 April, yet here we are 9 April and the tables are still not published:

    https://comresglobal.com/our-work/poll-archive/

    A lot of firms, eg YouGov, publish the detailed tables simultaneously with the headline. Savanta ComRes is the stand-out black sheep, typically taking about a week. Disgraceful behaviour. Kick em out.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627

    Utterly O/T, is there anything over the past 50 years as unchanging as a box of Weetabix?

    Her Majesty’s disdain for her prime minister.

    Don’t remember these in the 1970s:

    Weetabix Protein
    Weetabix Protein Chocolate Chip
    Weetabix Protein Crunch Original
    Weetabix protein Cruch Chocolate Flavour
    Organic Weetabix
    Mega Pack Weetabix
    Oatibix
    Oatibix Flakes
    Oatibix Flakes Nutty Crunch
    Weetabix Chocolate Melts
    Weetabix Chocolate Melts White Chocolate
    Weetabix Crispy Minis Chocolate Chip
    Weetabix Crispy Minis Fruit and Nut
    Weetabix Crispy Minis Banana
    Weetabix Banana Flavour
    Weetabix With Chocolate
    Weetabix With Red Berries

    And folk wonder why there is an obesity epidemic.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627
    With wheat prices shooting up by over 20% in a few short weeks, and plenty more to come, I wonder how long before added-value FMCGs like Weetabix are abandoned for simple cheap originals like porridge?

    As a heavy coffee consumer, I cannot help noticing that the price has pretty much doubled. And proper coffee beans and quality ground coffee weren’t cheap to start with. (Haven’t touched that instant crap in decades.)
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 447
    "Chuck Morse is the Republican Majority leader in the State Senate"

    One more try: Actually, Chuck Morse is the president of the state senate; Republican Jeb Bradley is the majority leader.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Hampshire used to be a solid GOP state, being won by the GOP at every presidential election from 1948 to 1988 except 1964, then moved to a swing state, going for Clinton then Bush then Kerry but has since become pretty solid blue voting for Obama, Clinton and Biden. It looks like that will still hold in November.

    However, while I also expect the GOP to pick up the House in the midterms I would be less certain about the Senate given most of the seats up are already GOP held

    I reckon the vulnerable defences for each party are:

    GOP - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina (just about), Florida (in theory)
    Dems - Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado (in theory)

    And the national picture is likely to be a strong year for the GOP, given how midterms usually go and Biden is far from remarkably popular.

    It isn't certain that the GOP take the Senate, but I'm happy with my 4/6 bets on them doing it.
    The Republicans only need to take one state, net, so it would be surprising if they didn't. Not impossible, but surprising.

    I suspect the Republicans will hold Wisconsin by a fairly comfortable margin, even though the shine has rather come off Senator Johnson. Pennsylvania is probably the Dems best hope of a pick-up, but I still think is a Republican hold.

    Ohio is a potential wildcard, but I'd expect that to be a fairly comfortable R hold too.

    Of the Dem seats, I think all of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are vulnerable, but I'm not so convinced by New Hampshire (incumbents get a big bonus there), or by Colorado (which swings further left by the year).

    Mark Kelly is personally popular in Arizona, but it's a purple state, and the Dems only just won it last year. I think he will struggle to hold it. Georgia is notionally harder for the Dems, but I think the Abrams GOTV operation is powerful, and I think it's entirely possible they do a good job there. (I think the Republicans may also pick a truly dreadful candidate.) More likely R than D, but not a big margin.

    Nevada would be a great gain for the Rs, and I think they stand a real chance there. Dems probably narrow favorites, but very narrow.
    Re the Senate seats:

    - Johnson - might have been hard but WI looks to be swinging more R (look at he Waukesha school board election for straws in the wind). Probably also helps he called Hunter Biden’s laptop right. Probably wins;
    - PA: Republican new registrations running x4 that of Democrats. Usually a pretty good precursor:
    - NH: agreed that probably more a D hold, however @Quincel failed to point out (no offence) Hassan struggling to get above mid-40s ie a lot of undecideds whom impossible to know how they split;
    -NV - Cortez probably in trouble. Hispanic WC moving more rightward and state is pro-opening up;
    - GA - Biden a drag (hence Abrams not appearing with him). More of the worst abuses (drop your ballot off with no checks) being removed. R win
    Speaking of Georgia & abuses, have you checked out Hershel Walker's record re: domestic violence?
    I have indeed, have you checked out Raphael Warnock’s record of being a raging anti-Semite?
    Herschel Walker is not a great candidate. And Warnock's obvious rapport with Ossoff nullifies the antisemite charge somewhat.

    I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona and Nevada went Republican, while Georgia stayed Blue.

    Which is ironic, because Cortez Masto and Kelly are a lot more moderate than he is.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,748
    I know I'm as likely as the next person to divert a thread (well, more likely...), but it was interesting to read this thread which so far has actually been on-topic and interesting (with the only diversions being Weetabix and Die Hard).

    Thanks.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,748
    time to derail the thread: ;)

    A few days ago, I commented that he nuclear experts denying that Russian troops could be made very ill by their being in Chernobyl were ignoring the fact there was a war on, and the activity in the area was abnormal:

    "In a particularly ill-advised action, a Russian soldier from a chemical, biological and nuclear protection unit picked up a source of cobalt-60 at one waste storage site with his bare hands, exposing himself to so much radiation in a few seconds that it went off the scales of a Geiger counter, Mr. Simyonov said. It was not clear what happened to the man, he said."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/08/world/europe/ukraine-chernobyl.html
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202

    Utterly O/T, is there anything over the past 50 years as unchanging as a box of Weetabix?

    Her Majesty’s disdain for her prime minister.

    Don’t remember these in the 1970s:

    Weetabix Protein
    Weetabix Protein Chocolate Chip
    Weetabix Protein Crunch Original
    Weetabix protein Cruch Chocolate Flavour
    Organic Weetabix
    Mega Pack Weetabix
    Oatibix
    Oatibix Flakes
    Oatibix Flakes Nutty Crunch
    Weetabix Chocolate Melts
    Weetabix Chocolate Melts White Chocolate
    Weetabix Crispy Minis Chocolate Chip
    Weetabix Crispy Minis Fruit and Nut
    Weetabix Crispy Minis Banana
    Weetabix Banana Flavour
    Weetabix With Chocolate
    Weetabix With Red Berries

    And folk wonder why there is an obesity epidemic.
    You’re not supposed to eat them all at once.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,206
    Morning all. Anyone betting on the F1 qualifying? Looks like there’s four teams competing for the pole position this morning, with Lando Norris fastest in P3 a couple of hours ago.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983

    time to derail the thread: ;)

    A few days ago, I commented that he nuclear experts denying that Russian troops could be made very ill by their being in Chernobyl were ignoring the fact there was a war on, and the activity in the area was abnormal:

    "In a particularly ill-advised action, a Russian soldier from a chemical, biological and nuclear protection unit picked up a source of cobalt-60 at one waste storage site with his bare hands, exposing himself to so much radiation in a few seconds that it went off the scales of a Geiger counter, Mr. Simyonov said. It was not clear what happened to the man, he said."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/08/world/europe/ukraine-chernobyl.html

    He went on to win the Darwin Award 2022?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202
    edited April 9
    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. Anyone betting on the F1 qualifying? Looks like there’s four teams competing for the pole position this morning, with Lando Norris fastest in P3 a couple of hours ago.

    Practice finished early thanks to the Aston Martin crashes.
    Might be worth an each way bet, but my small stake is on Leclerc. Great lap by Lando, though.
    Red Bull have setup issues, the Ferrari is porpoising, and the new layout is quite hairy. It’s a bit too uncertain to bet a lot on.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983
    Farooq said:

    Utterly O/T, is there anything over the past 50 years as unchanging as a box of Weetabix?

    Nigel Farage's yellow pants
    Rather horribly, I read that as meaning underpants.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. Anyone betting on the F1 qualifying? Looks like there’s four teams competing for the pole position this morning, with Lando Norris fastest in P3 a couple of hours ago.

    Practice finished early thanks to the Aston Martin crashes.
    Might be worth an each way bet, but my small stake is on Leclerc. Great lap by Lando, though.
    Red Bull have setup issues, the Ferrari is porpoising, and the new layout is quite hairy. It’s a bit too uncertain to bet a lot on.
    And note Norris did his lap on an almost empty fuel tank.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    New Hampshire is one of the few American states that I know even a bit. To me, it is the USA at its best, both in terms of general loveliness and in terms of its political culture. I mean - "Live Free or Die" - the boldness of it is as invigorating as the scenery. No Vermonty BenandJerry milksoppery here, nor metropolitan Bostonian urbanity. I could be happy in many places in America, but in few I think I could feel as at home as New Hampshire. If only I had the practicality to live up to my own ideals...

    Washington State for me.
    Rainy, green and temperate. And nobody sticks their nose into your bedroom.
    Unless invited naturellement.
    I have been to 15 US States, mostly Sunbelt.

    Of these, I found New Mexico to be my favourite. The cool crisp mountain air, interesting towns and combination of traditional Americana and alternative lifestyles that seem to get along hits a sweet spot.

    I would skip Alabama. It really lives up to its reputation.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,522
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    New Hampshire is one of the few American states that I know even a bit. To me, it is the USA at its best, both in terms of general loveliness and in terms of its political culture. I mean - "Live Free or Die" - the boldness of it is as invigorating as the scenery. No Vermonty BenandJerry milksoppery here, nor metropolitan Bostonian urbanity. I could be happy in many places in America, but in few I think I could feel as at home as New Hampshire. If only I had the practicality to live up to my own ideals...

    Washington State for me.
    Rainy, green and temperate. And nobody sticks their nose into your bedroom.
    Unless invited naturellement.
    I have been to 15 US States, mostly Sunbelt.

    Of these, I found New Mexico to be my favourite. The cool crisp mountain air, interesting towns and combination of traditional Americana and alternative lifestyles that seem to get along hits a sweet spot.

    I would skip Alabama. It really lives up to its reputation.
    Would agree on New Mexico. I used to love CA when I first went there in the 90s but it has gone downhill a lot.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,206
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. Anyone betting on the F1 qualifying? Looks like there’s four teams competing for the pole position this morning, with Lando Norris fastest in P3 a couple of hours ago.

    Practice finished early thanks to the Aston Martin crashes.
    Might be worth an each way bet, but my small stake is on Leclerc. Great lap by Lando, though.
    Red Bull have setup issues, the Ferrari is porpoising, and the new layout is quite hairy. It’s a bit too uncertain to bet a lot on.
    Agreed, this will be one to watch, rather than one to bet on. Lay Lewis for pole maybe ;)
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,522
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    New Hampshire used to be a solid GOP state, being won by the GOP at every presidential election from 1948 to 1988 except 1964, then moved to a swing state, going for Clinton then Bush then Kerry but has since become pretty solid blue voting for Obama, Clinton and Biden. It looks like that will still hold in November.

    However, while I also expect the GOP to pick up the House in the midterms I would be less certain about the Senate given most of the seats up are already GOP held

    I reckon the vulnerable defences for each party are:

    GOP - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina (just about), Florida (in theory)
    Dems - Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado (in theory)

    And the national picture is likely to be a strong year for the GOP, given how midterms usually go and Biden is far from remarkably popular.

    It isn't certain that the GOP take the Senate, but I'm happy with my 4/6 bets on them doing it.
    The Republicans only need to take one state, net, so it would be surprising if they didn't. Not impossible, but surprising.

    I suspect the Republicans will hold Wisconsin by a fairly comfortable margin, even though the shine has rather come off Senator Johnson. Pennsylvania is probably the Dems best hope of a pick-up, but I still think is a Republican hold.

    Ohio is a potential wildcard, but I'd expect that to be a fairly comfortable R hold too.

    Of the Dem seats, I think all of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are vulnerable, but I'm not so convinced by New Hampshire (incumbents get a big bonus there), or by Colorado (which swings further left by the year).

    Mark Kelly is personally popular in Arizona, but it's a purple state, and the Dems only just won it last year. I think he will struggle to hold it. Georgia is notionally harder for the Dems, but I think the Abrams GOTV operation is powerful, and I think it's entirely possible they do a good job there. (I think the Republicans may also pick a truly dreadful candidate.) More likely R than D, but not a big margin.

    Nevada would be a great gain for the Rs, and I think they stand a real chance there. Dems probably narrow favorites, but very narrow.
    Re the Senate seats:

    - Johnson - might have been hard but WI looks to be swinging more R (look at he Waukesha school board election for straws in the wind). Probably also helps he called Hunter Biden’s laptop right. Probably wins;
    - PA: Republican new registrations running x4 that of Democrats. Usually a pretty good precursor:
    - NH: agreed that probably more a D hold, however @Quincel failed to point out (no offence) Hassan struggling to get above mid-40s ie a lot of undecideds whom impossible to know how they split;
    -NV - Cortez probably in trouble. Hispanic WC moving more rightward and state is pro-opening up;
    - GA - Biden a drag (hence Abrams not appearing with him). More of the worst abuses (drop your ballot off with no checks) being removed. R win
    Speaking of Georgia & abuses, have you checked out Hershel Walker's record re: domestic violence?
    I have indeed, have you checked out Raphael Warnock’s record of being a raging anti-Semite?
    Herschel Walker is not a great candidate. And Warnock's obvious rapport with Ossoff nullifies the antisemite charge somewhat.

    I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona and Nevada went Republican, while Georgia stayed Blue.

    Which is ironic, because Cortez Masto and Kelly are a lot more moderate than he is.
    I don’t buy that line on Warnock, it’s a bit like the “I’m not racist, some of my best friends are…”

    Re GA, not so sure. I think the controversy over the 2020 election will have an impact and I wonder how effective the Abrams GOTV will be now given the electoral changes. She certainly seems less prevalent than post-2020 when she was being lauded as the new star of the Democrats.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    MrEd said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    New Hampshire is one of the few American states that I know even a bit. To me, it is the USA at its best, both in terms of general loveliness and in terms of its political culture. I mean - "Live Free or Die" - the boldness of it is as invigorating as the scenery. No Vermonty BenandJerry milksoppery here, nor metropolitan Bostonian urbanity. I could be happy in many places in America, but in few I think I could feel as at home as New Hampshire. If only I had the practicality to live up to my own ideals...

    Washington State for me.
    Rainy, green and temperate. And nobody sticks their nose into your bedroom.
    Unless invited naturellement.
    I have been to 15 US States, mostly Sunbelt.

    Of these, I found New Mexico to be my favourite. The cool crisp mountain air, interesting towns and combination of traditional Americana and alternative lifestyles that seem to get along hits a sweet spot.

    I would skip Alabama. It really lives up to its reputation.
    Would agree on New Mexico. I used to love CA when I first went there in the 90s but it has gone downhill a lot.
    It's about 10 years since I was last in the US, in Florida for a conference. I may go next year, as something work related of interest in New Orleans. It was 40 years since I was last there.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,910

    "Chuck Morse, a longstanding politician who leads the Republican minority in the state senate."

    According to Wikipedia, Chuck Morse is president of the New Hampshire senate, thanks to the Republicans winning a 14-10 majority in 2020. (Republicans also control the New Hamshire house.)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_Senate

    (By the way, the pay for legislators in New Hamshire is a munificent "$200/term + mileage". Which may help explain why there are currently 10 vacancies in the 400 member house.)

    Good spot, I misread the fact that he became minority leader a couple of years ago before they retook the majority.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,455
    I'm reading that escalating construction costs and the building safety legislation are freezing property development in London... the expectation is that property prices will need to double.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,206
    darkage said:

    I'm reading that escalating construction costs and the building safety legislation are freezing property development in London... the expectation is that property prices will need to double.

    If interest rates keep going up, then the property price movement will only be one way.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    ...
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,455
    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    I'm reading that escalating construction costs and the building safety legislation are freezing property development in London... the expectation is that property prices will need to double.

    If interest rates keep going up, then the property price movement will only be one way.
    That's true...
    I've said many times that property is not overvalued in the UK because build costs keep escalating.
    It is hitting now £2k+ per sqm.
    Of course, if there is a crash, then it would be reasonable to expect build costs to collapse, as so much capacity and supply of materials would be flooding the market.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 2,127

    Utterly O/T, is there anything over the past 50 years as unchanging as a box of Weetabix?

    Have they not shrunk?
    No, I really think they are identical.
    Wood pulp doesn’t vary much
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    edited April 9
    Good morning everyone.

    Apart from the weather, doesn't seem to be a lot to be upbeat about, does there?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,455

    Has Mrs Sunak just taken a ton of future tax income away from the Indian government and given it to UK?

    You can look it up.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/498363/india-dtc_-_in_force.pdf

    Under article 11: dividends...

    (3) A dividend paid by a company which is a resident of India to a resident of the United Kingdom may be taxed in the United Kingdom. The dividend may also be taxed in India but the Indian tax so charged shall not exceed 15 per cent of the gross amount of the dividend.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,563
    darkage said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    I'm reading that escalating construction costs and the building safety legislation are freezing property development in London... the expectation is that property prices will need to double.

    If interest rates keep going up, then the property price movement will only be one way.
    That's true...
    I've said many times that property is not overvalued in the UK because build costs keep escalating.
    It is hitting now £2k+ per sqm.

    I'm all for reducing building costs where possible.

    But property in nice areas of London costs £1,000-£1,5000/sq ft, which is more than £10-15k/sq m.

    There is a huge differential there that is clearly driven by scarcity and speculation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,206
    F1 commentators arguing over whether a birthday cake for the team boss is subsistence (and therefore inside the budget cap), or marketing expense, given that there were photos taken of it.

    Sometimes sport and politics can mix in unusual ways. :D
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 280
    Interesting article thanks. I was assuming that the Democrats would lose this and every other marginal seat largely thanks to "culture war" unless Trump gets involved in which case all bets are off...
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 73
    Off topic, any strong feelings about the big race, last year I was convinced I had the winner, and didnt, this years race is very competitive, you could give a chance to at least 25 of the field, my three for what its worth, Enjoy D'Allen, longhouse poet, eclair surf, good luck all
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,749
    Its interesting. I had been assuming that the Dems are going to het massacred in the midterms but Wisconsin just had a swathe of local election and the Dems did all right, much better than I expected.

    And Wisconsin is a more GOP leaning state than the national average.

    However I do not see how the Dems can survive when the majority of Americans think there have been net job losses under Biden when in fact there has been record job growth.

    If the _feel_ is gloomy then the facts dont matter.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 666
    darkage said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    I'm reading that escalating construction costs and the building safety legislation are freezing property development in London... the expectation is that property prices will need to double.

    If interest rates keep going up, then the property price movement will only be one way.
    That's true...
    I've said many times that property is not overvalued in the UK because build costs keep escalating.
    It is hitting now £2k+ per sqm.
    Of course, if there is a crash, then it would be reasonable to expect build costs to collapse, as so much capacity and supply of materials would be flooding the market.
    The interesting question is why. There shouldn't be all that much to a basic house.
    I suspect building regs demanding ever more impossible standards of energy efficiency has a lot to do with it - the laws of diminishing returns kicked in on this some time ago.

    The trend for building estates of shoeboxes must be skewing the figures too - I suspect that the savings from building really pokey houses vs modest houses are pretty small, which will be bumping up the £/sqm numbers.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    Alistair said:

    Its interesting. I had been assuming that the Dems are going to het massacred in the midterms but Wisconsin just had a swathe of local election and the Dems did all right, much better than I expected.

    And Wisconsin is a more GOP leaning state than the national average.

    However I do not see how the Dems can survive when the majority of Americans think there have been net job losses under Biden when in fact there has been record job growth.

    If the _feel_ is gloomy then the facts dont matter.

    It\'s quite a long time to the actual elections, though, and if there are a few more positives, as the one you describe that motivates election workers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828

    Good morning everyone.

    Apart from the weather, doesn't seem to be a lot to be upbeat about, does there?

    Izmir, it turns out, is wonderful. It has an amazing old quarter. And because there are zero tourists - ZERO - it is utterly authentic in a way almost impossible to find these days. Terra Nullius





    Does that help?
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,335
    moonshine said:

    Had a bit of a nightmare on my first night in Roses. I’d booked two nights at some cheap place for the night, and hadn’t noticed that it had a really early check in time. I was enjoying my dinner (a huge steak with roasted vegetables, washed down with a bottle of local red) when I realised I’d missed a couple of messages from the property. I rushed down the steak, then rushed up the road across town to find the place. I was quite out of breath when I arrived, and maybe not looking my best; the lady who owned the place, I presume, opened the door took one look at me and said “You are drunk, go away.” And slammed the door in my face..

    I headed back down to the town centre trying to find a suitable replacement hotel, but everything was looking very expensive. I sat down outside a bar, got another glass of wine and was just about to book a room that cost more than the last three nights put together. I then heard an enthusiastic Dutch accented greeting, looked up and saw a young chap, Enzio, from Amsterdam who I’d met at a bar the day before in Figueres.

    I told him how my evening had gone, and that I was about to book the new hotel; he insisted that I stay in the spare room at the apartment he had rented for the month. So I went out drinking with young Enzio. Then we smoked like Dutch teenagers. Needless to say I didn’t get much done yesterday! I took my new pal out for dinner last night to say thanks (we had a jamon feast that cost as much as the room I got shut out of)- he also let me get all my washing done at his place which was rather handy.

    I booked myself a cheap but pretty nice room for last night and I’m just having some breakfast before heading out for my next trek.



    A certain travel writer better watch out, there’s a new game in town :wink:
    Thanks, but I doubt he’s quaking in his ponceyboots just yet!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178
    moonshine said:

    Had a bit of a nightmare on my first night in Roses. I’d booked two nights at some cheap place for the night, and hadn’t noticed that it had a really early check in time. I was enjoying my dinner (a huge steak with roasted vegetables, washed down with a bottle of local red) when I realised I’d missed a couple of messages from the property. I rushed down the steak, then rushed up the road across town to find the place. I was quite out of breath when I arrived, and maybe not looking my best; the lady who owned the place, I presume, opened the door took one look at me and said “You are drunk, go away.” And slammed the door in my face..

    I headed back down to the town centre trying to find a suitable replacement hotel, but everything was looking very expensive. I sat down outside a bar, got another glass of wine and was just about to book a room that cost more than the last three nights put together. I then heard an enthusiastic Dutch accented greeting, looked up and saw a young chap, Enzio, from Amsterdam who I’d met at a bar the day before in Figueres.

    I told him how my evening had gone, and that I was about to book the new hotel; he insisted that I stay in the spare room at the apartment he had rented for the month. So I went out drinking with young Enzio. Then we smoked like Dutch teenagers. Needless to say I didn’t get much done yesterday! I took my new pal out for dinner last night to say thanks (we had a jamon feast that cost as much as the room I got shut out of)- he also let me get all my washing done at his place which was rather handy.

    I booked myself a cheap but pretty nice room for last night and I’m just having some breakfast before heading out for my next trek.



    A certain travel writer better watch out, there’s a new game in town :wink:
    But nobody will ever beat @Leon for skill in knapping flint dildos in exotic locations...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,522
    ** Betting post

    Today is Grand National day, the busiest day of the year for bookies. This is doubtless why the Bet365 half-stake back offer on each-way bets up to £125 expires at midday. Typically, online bookmakers will remove some functionality in order to cope with the expected load (and there is football as well, and the US Masters).

    Longhouse Poet for me, though the more I stare at the card, the easier it is to believe any of them can win.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,522

    moonshine said:

    Had a bit of a nightmare on my first night in Roses. I’d booked two nights at some cheap place for the night, and hadn’t noticed that it had a really early check in time. I was enjoying my dinner (a huge steak with roasted vegetables, washed down with a bottle of local red) when I realised I’d missed a couple of messages from the property. I rushed down the steak, then rushed up the road across town to find the place. I was quite out of breath when I arrived, and maybe not looking my best; the lady who owned the place, I presume, opened the door took one look at me and said “You are drunk, go away.” And slammed the door in my face..

    I headed back down to the town centre trying to find a suitable replacement hotel, but everything was looking very expensive. I sat down outside a bar, got another glass of wine and was just about to book a room that cost more than the last three nights put together. I then heard an enthusiastic Dutch accented greeting, looked up and saw a young chap, Enzio, from Amsterdam who I’d met at a bar the day before in Figueres.

    I told him how my evening had gone, and that I was about to book the new hotel; he insisted that I stay in the spare room at the apartment he had rented for the month. So I went out drinking with young Enzio. Then we smoked like Dutch teenagers. Needless to say I didn’t get much done yesterday! I took my new pal out for dinner last night to say thanks (we had a jamon feast that cost as much as the room I got shut out of)- he also let me get all my washing done at his place which was rather handy.

    I booked myself a cheap but pretty nice room for last night and I’m just having some breakfast before heading out for my next trek.



    A certain travel writer better watch out, there’s a new game in town :wink:
    Thanks, but I doubt he’s quaking in his ponceyboots just yet!
    He's already posted three photos to your two: a clear sign of panic.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    Has Mrs Sunak just taken a ton of future tax income away from the Indian government and given it to UK?

    He some dodge behind it, lots of talk re Cayman so who knows. Anyway risk in sights now with his green card stuff. You just cannot understand the greed of Tories in general.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    darkage said:

    Has Mrs Sunak just taken a ton of future tax income away from the Indian government and given it to UK?

    You can look it up.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/498363/india-dtc_-_in_force.pdf

    Under article 11: dividends...

    (3) A dividend paid by a company which is a resident of India to a resident of the United Kingdom may be taxed in the United Kingdom. The dividend may also be taxed in India but the Indian tax so charged shall not exceed 15 per cent of the gross amount of the dividend.
    As someone who has worked for HMRC you come into contact every day with people who live in the UK and pay tax on foreign income in that jurisdiction. It isn't the slightest bit controversial and I've never known anyone think there was something wrong in this.

    What is bizarre is the non-dom status. If you are in the UK for 183 days in a tax year I don't see why you should be claiming non-dom status. There may be particular exceptions for someone seconded to work in the UK from a foreign company, family reasons like a sick relative or if you were stuck in the UK due to covid. But I wouldn't expect these to extend into multiple years.

    I wouldn't start abusing the chancellor's wife. It is part of a wider culture where this has been seen as normal. I also have no time for Ed Miliband's 'It's legal but it's not right.' Ed you're a politician not the Archbishop of Cantebury. I don't want a moral lecture (and judging by the 2015 election neither do most people). If you don't like the law tells us how you would change it.

    Why do we have this laxity around domiciliary status? I don't know but I wonder if it has something to do with the US and its approach to taxing its own citizens wherever they be. Are we worried Americans will leave Britain if the non-dom rules are changed? Personally I think we should have more respect for ourselves than to pretend that people who are living here are not really living here.
    Nothing to do withrespect, it is graft pure and simple for rich tories.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,113
    Any thoughts (tips) about the Grand National today team?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178
    edited April 9

    Any thoughts (tips) about the Grand National today team?

    I am 99% sure it will be won by a horse. I don't think the gorilla stands much of a chance.

    However, today is a day we should honour the man, perhaps the greatest competitor of all the National jockeys...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beltrán_Alfonso_Osorio,_18th_Duke_of_Alburquerque
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620

    I'm Boris Johnson and I approve this message.

    Probably, but I am not convinced BoZo misplacing yet another chancellor will reassure backbenchers that there isn't a whole catalogue of pratfalls yet to come
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,455

    darkage said:

    Has Mrs Sunak just taken a ton of future tax income away from the Indian government and given it to UK?

    You can look it up.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/498363/india-dtc_-_in_force.pdf

    Under article 11: dividends...

    (3) A dividend paid by a company which is a resident of India to a resident of the United Kingdom may be taxed in the United Kingdom. The dividend may also be taxed in India but the Indian tax so charged shall not exceed 15 per cent of the gross amount of the dividend.
    As someone who has worked for HMRC you come into contact every day with people who live in the UK and pay tax on foreign income in that jurisdiction. It isn't the slightest bit controversial and I've never known anyone think there was something wrong in this.

    What is bizarre is the non-dom status. If you are in the UK for 183 days in a tax year I don't see why you should be claiming non-dom status. There may be particular exceptions for someone seconded to work in the UK from a foreign company, family reasons like a sick relative or if you were stuck in the UK due to covid. But I wouldn't expect these to extend into multiple years.

    I wouldn't start abusing the chancellor's wife. It is part of a wider culture where this has been seen as normal. I also have no time for Ed Miliband's 'It's legal but it's not right.' Ed you're a politician not the Archbishop of Cantebury. I don't want a moral lecture (and judging by the 2015 election neither do most people). If you don't like the law tells us how you would change it.

    Why do we have this laxity around domiciliary status? I don't know but I wonder if it has something to do with the US and its approach to taxing its own citizens wherever they be. Are we worried Americans will leave Britain if the non-dom rules are changed? Personally I think we should have more respect for ourselves than to pretend that people who are living here are not really living here.
    Good points - she was following the rules, so if there is something wrong with the rules, then they should be changed.

    It is quite amusing (albeit depressing) to see how supposedly wise and smart people on this website turn in to a Robin Hood like mob whenever the affairs of the very rich are discussed.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,353
    malcolmg said:

    Has Mrs Sunak just taken a ton of future tax income away from the Indian government and given it to UK?

    He some dodge behind it, lots of talk re Cayman so who knows. Anyway risk in sights now with his green card stuff. You just cannot understand the greed of Tories in general.
    Morning Malc. Hope all is well in your part of the world. Are you having a flutter today on the grand national ?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    ** Betting post

    Today is Grand National day, the busiest day of the year for bookies. This is doubtless why the Bet365 half-stake back offer on each-way bets up to £125 expires at midday. Typically, online bookmakers will remove some functionality in order to cope with the expected load (and there is football as well, and the US Masters).

    Longhouse Poet for me, though the more I stare at the card, the easier it is to believe any of them can win.

    @ping @MoonRabbit @stodge

    Mine for today all singles EW. Good luck to all

    Stage door 14:25 Aintree
    Grand national 5:15
    Snow Leopardess
    Eclair Surf
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,353

    moonshine said:

    Had a bit of a nightmare on my first night in Roses. I’d booked two nights at some cheap place for the night, and hadn’t noticed that it had a really early check in time. I was enjoying my dinner (a huge steak with roasted vegetables, washed down with a bottle of local red) when I realised I’d missed a couple of messages from the property. I rushed down the steak, then rushed up the road across town to find the place. I was quite out of breath when I arrived, and maybe not looking my best; the lady who owned the place, I presume, opened the door took one look at me and said “You are drunk, go away.” And slammed the door in my face..

    I headed back down to the town centre trying to find a suitable replacement hotel, but everything was looking very expensive. I sat down outside a bar, got another glass of wine and was just about to book a room that cost more than the last three nights put together. I then heard an enthusiastic Dutch accented greeting, looked up and saw a young chap, Enzio, from Amsterdam who I’d met at a bar the day before in Figueres.

    I told him how my evening had gone, and that I was about to book the new hotel; he insisted that I stay in the spare room at the apartment he had rented for the month. So I went out drinking with young Enzio. Then we smoked like Dutch teenagers. Needless to say I didn’t get much done yesterday! I took my new pal out for dinner last night to say thanks (we had a jamon feast that cost as much as the room I got shut out of)- he also let me get all my washing done at his place which was rather handy.

    I booked myself a cheap but pretty nice room for last night and I’m just having some breakfast before heading out for my next trek.



    A certain travel writer better watch out, there’s a new game in town :wink:
    Thanks, but I doubt he’s quaking in his ponceyboots just yet!
    He's already posted three photos to your two: a clear sign of panic.
    You’ve got him on the ropes @BlancheLivermore , a few more digs to the ribs then a knockout blow. You can do it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,889

    darkage said:

    Alistair said:

    Somebody leaking again...

    Documents seen by The Independent show trusts linked to Ms Murty, her family and companies linked to their businesses. In a number of them, Mr Sunak was listed as a beneficiary.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rishi-sunak-akshata-murty-tax-haven-b2054179.html

    Wow, when her tax affairs first were reported I (a frothing at the mouth tax the rich until their pips squeak left-winger) didn't see what the issue was and felt that the "anger" totally confected.

    Now.... now Sunak is showing all the sure foot of a blind arthritic elephant in a over crowded china shop.
    The sad thing about this story is the emnity towards wealthy and successful people. There is no smoking gun here at all. Everything they have done is entirely legal. Being listed as a 'beneficiary' in a Cayman Islands trust.... so what.

    If you don't like non dom status.... then scrap it. But if it is there, you cannot blame people for using it. And the expectation that she has somehow a greater obligation to Britain than anyone elses wife, is laughable. There are lots of international marriages going on; it is an inevitable consequence of globalisation. People are just projecting their own ideas about marriage - largely from a different age.... on to the Sunaks.

    We have a shortage of sane and competent people going in to politics. These are the people that we elect to run the country. Why not have someone who is has been successful and is independently wealthy.... I don't see the problem. I have never been a particular fan of Sunak, but if he is hounded out over this it would be a bad loss.

    The end point, is that no one successful, goes in to politics.... and we are nearly there already. We will just get a bunch of activists. We end up with Jared O'Mara 2; over and over again.
    I mostly agree. From my left-wing position I think that frothing over individuals taking advantage of a deliberately-created loophole is a distraction and unfair as well. Change the system so that it rewards people for doing what we want - making nondom status vastly more expensive would be a start, so that in the end it's usually more sensible just to pay tax in the country where you live..
    Decent people don't need rules to force them to do the right thing. If it doesn't feel right don't do it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,206

    Any thoughts (tips) about the Grand National today team?

    Tips for the Grand National?

    1. Don’t bet on a 4m4f, 40-horse handicapped steeplechase?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,749
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    Has Mrs Sunak just taken a ton of future tax income away from the Indian government and given it to UK?

    You can look it up.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/498363/india-dtc_-_in_force.pdf

    Under article 11: dividends...

    (3) A dividend paid by a company which is a resident of India to a resident of the United Kingdom may be taxed in the United Kingdom. The dividend may also be taxed in India but the Indian tax so charged shall not exceed 15 per cent of the gross amount of the dividend.
    As someone who has worked for HMRC you come into contact every day with people who live in the UK and pay tax on foreign income in that jurisdiction. It isn't the slightest bit controversial and I've never known anyone think there was something wrong in this.

    What is bizarre is the non-dom status. If you are in the UK for 183 days in a tax year I don't see why you should be claiming non-dom status. There may be particular exceptions for someone seconded to work in the UK from a foreign company, family reasons like a sick relative or if you were stuck in the UK due to covid. But I wouldn't expect these to extend into multiple years.

    I wouldn't start abusing the chancellor's wife. It is part of a wider culture where this has been seen as normal. I also have no time for Ed Miliband's 'It's legal but it's not right.' Ed you're a politician not the Archbishop of Cantebury. I don't want a moral lecture (and judging by the 2015 election neither do most people). If you don't like the law tells us how you would change it.

    Why do we have this laxity around domiciliary status? I don't know but I wonder if it has something to do with the US and its approach to taxing its own citizens wherever they be. Are we worried Americans will leave Britain if the non-dom rules are changed? Personally I think we should have more respect for ourselves than to pretend that people who are living here are not really living here.
    Good points - she was following the rules, so if there is something wrong with the rules, then they should be changed.

    It is quite amusing (albeit depressing) to see how supposedly wise and smart people on this website turn in to a Robin Hood like mob whenever the affairs of the very rich are discussed.
    But as soon as anyone suggests changing the rules the screaming about "the politics of envy" starts up.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    Has Mrs Sunak just taken a ton of future tax income away from the Indian government and given it to UK?

    He some dodge behind it, lots of talk re Cayman so who knows. Anyway risk in sights now with his green card stuff. You just cannot understand the greed of Tories in general.
    Morning Malc. Hope all is well in your part of the world. Are you having a flutter today on the grand national ?
    Hello taz, sunshine here. Hope all well with you and family. I have just posted my horses.
    I am on holiday next week, so off to Dorset, taking my grandson and his pal to tank and fleet airarm museums and raf cosford on way back.
    Hopefully some nice weather down there next week.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    Sandpit said:

    Any thoughts (tips) about the Grand National today team?

    Tips for the Grand National?

    1. Don’t bet on a 4m4f, 40-horse handicapped steeplechase?
    Obviously not a betting or horse man
This discussion has been closed.