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It is hard to see Starmer emulating Heath’s GE1970 performance – politicalbetting.com
It is hard to see Starmer emulating Heath’s GE1970 performance – politicalbetting.com
One of the remarkable things about British politics that is not always fully appreciated is how rare it is for a party with a working majority to be replaced by another party with a working majority. This has only happened once since WW2 – at GE1970 (the first I was able to vote in and cover professionally) when the Heath-led Tories secured a majority of 30 replacing Wilson’s Labour party which had secured a majority of 98 four years earlier at GE1970.
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At a Washington Marriott, the nationalist wing of the Republican Party wrestles with what Putin’s war means for their movement.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/04/02/trump-conservatives-emergency-meeting-gop-russia-00022419
SSI - Mostly navel-gazing. But does highlight that growing split in Republican ranks is NOT between MAGA and Never-Trumpers, but rather neo-isolationists versus neo-neo-cons.
https://www.instagram.com/sir_edward_heath/?hl=en-gb
the tweet is a photo of a town in northern Ukraine, the Russians had tide the hands of some Ukrainians civilians behind there back, and then shot them. Basterds and war criminals.
https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1510039148299751424?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1510039148299751424|twgr^|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=https://hotair.com/allahpundit/2022/04/02/ukrainian-troops-around-kiev-horrified-by-what-retreating-russians-left-behind-n459626
Clearly I cant verify this, but having seen a few videos of liberated areas, I think its real.
But, yes, obviously we should only offer these or any other honours to the Ukrainians with the approval of their government. If they think it's empty virtue-signalling, of course we don't. But sometimes these gestures really mean something - as when the Queen ordered that the American national anthem be played after 9/11. Condi Rice said that moved her to tears. Or a poster (I think) on here said his Ukrainian relation appreciated all the signs of support from people on facebook, etc, which I had thought was empty-virtue signalling.
Just as long as they're an addition to military and economic aid, not a replacement of it.
The rising cost of living might help Labour but still hard to see them winning a majority minus their former Scottish seats. Even if Starmer did win as Heath did in 1970 it would not necessarily be of great encouragement to him. 4 years later Wilson returned to power and defeated him in the February and October 1974 general elections.
Heath like Starmer was a dull technocrat, Boris more of a charismatic showman like Wilson
The reality is Heath had been running a sophisticated targeting operation for the previous three years, successfully attracting swing voters away from Labour. The party chairman was expecting a lead on the day of around 5%, had been for over a year, and got it.
1970 really said more about the unreliable of the polling companies' the methods than it does about late swings.
There are lots of these videos emerging. I am 99% sure the Russians are shooting multiple civilians, for no reason, as they retreat
Unspeakable. We edge closer to total war
I fear we will never see his like again.
“My brother sent this to me. Town of Bucha northwest of Kyiv. The amount of dead citizens on one street alone…I just can’t even process.”
https://twitter.com/viktoriiauah/status/1509985789404459011?s=21&t=b2xouwbwKm5zLSBNQqXiiw
I have cousins in Shropshire who still haven't forgiven him for that.
Srebrenica? Worse? My god
I have never, ever understood how the French managed fool so many non-French people into thinking they are the best chefs in the world. Even within Europe, the Italian cuisine far outshines theirs. The Mediterranean/Ottoman cuisine is at least as good, if not better. And that's without getting to Chinese, Malay, Indian and Indochinese cuisines.
French food can be exquisite, but is often just bleh.
Where do the tories get their mps from?
We need compulsory drug testing.
Sarah Ferguson, Duchess of York has shared a series of Instagram posts written by Prince Andrew reflecting on the 40th anniversary of him leaving to serve in the Falkland War with the Royal Navy. After seeing active combat, he writes, Andrew “returned a changed man”.
Andrew was forced to shut down his social media accounts in January after the palace announced he would lose his honorary military titles and no longer use his HRH. But despite efforts to keep him in the background, it is clear that this prince still wants to be seen and heard.
Less than two hours after posting, the three posts have now been deleted.
https://twitter.com/scobie/status/1510287895277494278
It did occur to me the other day that the only way the Russians are going to piss off for good is if Kyiv has a few nukes pointed at Moscow.
It sounded to me as though he was not only underlining the way Russia had broken its word, but that he was somewhat regretting his predecessors' choices.
Boris Johnson has told ministers he wants to supply the weapons to prevent the Russians advancing on Odesa, just as British anti-tank missiles have been used to stall President Putin’s efforts to take Kyiv
A senior government source said: “We anticipated this mass column of tanks coming across what is a very flat expanse of landscape and that Kyiv would be taken in three days. The NLAWs [next-generation light anti-tank weapons] stopped that”
“That bit of the war is not over but it’s parked. They’re now concentrating on the south. The next target is Odesa”
“It’s not tanks which are going to come at Odesa. It’s ships. NLAWs don’t work against ships, so what does?
“The PM is eager and determined to help find that. We don’t have everything they need for the next stage but we have become the default co-ordinator of other countries”
A second source said: “The Ukrainians have been asking for lethal aid on the Black Sea. We have probably the most mature relationship with the Ukrainians of anyone... The PM is committed to helping Ukraine defend itself and he will support that need”
Mariupol, on the coast of the Sea of Azov, has witnessed some of the bloodiest fighting of the conflict, with 5,000 people thought to have been killed
Over the past fortnight four Russian warships are reported to have joined in a bombardment of the city that has reduced 80% of its buildings to rubble
There are fears that Odesa, which has so far been spared Mariupol’s fate, could soon come under assault from the Russian navy in the Black Sea as the Kremlin seeks to refocus its forces on securing the east and southern coastal areas of Ukraine
While some allies, including America, Germany and France, are said to want to wait for a provocation by Russia before providing more deadly lethal aid, Johnson has made clear that he believes it should be made available immediately
“Boris says we don’t need another trigger,” the senior government source added. “He [Putin] has already crossed the line ... Whatever Zelensky asks for he will get, if we have it”
Read the full story here:
https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1510320627013541888
The exact opposite of Putin's mythic dreams of one fatherland united under his glorious beneficence.
No I call you a fascist because you want to censor the free press for an article where the author used a word that is part of his own language but you disapprove and therefore should be banned. A typical stance of a fascist. Also because:
- You think Russia is democratic
- You approve of Pinochet
- You would put down an unofficial referendum with troops
- You would nuke a country without nuclear weapons.
- You openly don't feel the views of a losing side in an election should be considered ignoring the respected view that Governments govern for all.
The list goes on. Your views are that of a typical fascist and not of a Tory, which can be seen by the fact that not a single Tory here supports your views.
It seems all the enclosures were - probably - lightly roofed (for shade from the burning desert sun) by wicker/wooden roofs
In Enclose AB at Karahan Tepe (see, I’m getting technical) the great hall was supported by two central pillars 6 metres high, the main.pillars for a conical or tent like roof
Six metres high! It would have been like a mini cathedral…… in 10,000 BC. With numerous side chapels, shrines, altars, statues in niches, leopard skins, dangling human skulls….
You call me a fascist because you are a pompous, tedious Liberal bore who now resorts to abuse against anyone who does not share their mindset!
Thatcher herself approved of Pinochet's support in the Falklands War, the Tory UK government's official policy is to continue to refuse indyref2.
Name me one Labour government where most Tory voters were happy with it or one Tory government where most Labour voters were happy with it?
Despite the Tories still polling around 35% you can count the number of still Tory voting Boris supporters on here on 1 hand. That means very little. However still most of them do not call me and others like me 'fascist' like you just have!
SNP 56%
Con 17%
Lab 13%
Grn 4%
Ref 3%
LD 3%
Propensity to cast a vote - Absolutely certain to vote (10/10):
Scotland 67%
London 61%
Rest of South 50%
Midlands and Wales 50%
North 50%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 2,006; Fieldwork: 29-30 March 2022)
This points to the huge challenge facing Ross, when the next election takes place. The GE2007 outcome remains the biggest Scottish general election shock in modern times.
In the betting a SCon FM is currently rated at a 5% chance, which in my view is far too high.
The only period in British history that was truly as two-party as our mythology has it is that short period from the Second Reform Act of 1867 to the split of the Irish Unionists in 1885/6 - the three general elections of 1868, 1874 and 1880. This was, of course, the period in with Gilbert and Sullivan wrote Iolanthe (1881), with the notable lines:
Nature always does contrive
That every boy and every gal
That’s born into the world alive
Is either a little Liberal
Or else a little Conservative!
This was all found in the last few WEEKS
What is wrong with you that you can never admit you are wrong even on trivia?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60967143
Whilst it is true that John Major's majority began to whittle away between 1992-7, the fact is that he started out with a majority of 21 and Tony Blair turned that around from a majority of 21 to the Conservatives to a landslide Labour victory with its largest ever victory: a majority of 179.
So, yes, turnarounds do happen.
They are much more likely to occur after long one-party rules when 'time for change' becomes a meme, especially when sleaze and corruption have crept in.
By 1997 the Tories had been in power continuously for 18 years. By 2024 they will have been in power for 14 years.
I suggest that 1997 is a much better metric by which to judge 2024 and that Mike is, on this rare occasion, wrong.
1945 is true - but was also a wartime election after 10 years without an election, and the winners had been in government just two months before.
I'm comfortable therefore with OGH saying that 1970 is the only example in the twentieth century.
Anyone who does cocaine is a complete and utter ban hammer word
Still does not give you the right to call me a Fascist!
And some of the top of the Labour were against it. Eg Tony Benn. Hence Corbyn’s ‘lukewarmishness’.
No other nation is going to come to your aid if the aggressor has nukes. That means there is only one viable way to defend yourself against a nuclear armed aggressor.
This time the Conservative MP's have chickened out and will stay with their same leader.
So, no, not like 1964, 1992 or 2010.
Like 1997.
has made a prick out of you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9lkCYkViwc
Major was maybe more electable than Thatcher by late 1990 but by 1997 he led the Tories to their worst defeat since Wellington in 1832.
There is no doubt Thatcher saw Pinochet's support as vital in helping to win the Falklands War, did not make her a Fascist either
Like all good Tories he helped oust a Monarch. #HeirToCromwell
Admitting you are wrong, as every single person is and should be sometimes (it's a betting site ffs!!!), would help make the place slightly happier. Even more so if people accepted a sincere mea culpa moment.
And, yes, I got the invasion totally wrong - whatever the reasons.
By 'untouched' I'm referring only to county council/county borough borders here.
I've just remembered - I used to have a 1974 copy of Whittakers almanac which explained in painstaking detail how the redrawing was done. It was one of my most treasure posessions. I wonder what happened to it?
2. Did you see that Sarah Palin is back?!? As 51st candidate in very special election to represent 49th state in US House? And that one of her rivals is Santa Claus, a Democratic Socialist who is on North Pole, Alaska city council.
Fill in the blank: "I saw Sarah Palin _________ing Santa Claus . . ."
Re your comments on Thatcher and Indy ref I agree.
It was necessary in the Falkland war, that doesn't mean you have to support Pinochet. Did you? Your comments the other day implied you did.
Re Indy ref there is a difference between not supporting a referendum and threatening troops.
I don't call you a fascist for supporting Johnson, I call you a fascist because of your beliefs. Boris is not a fascist, but you are.
You are also exceptionally authoritarian, another trait.
Does it not cross your mind that your views are different to every Tory on this site. I am closer to all of them than you.
You're quite right.
We know this because there are identical shaped pillars with phallic forms which are much shorter, and definitely weren’t used for roofs
Check the rockfrieze I just posted. In the little village. The tiny man is clutching his cock. The Tepe people were obsessed with penises
Tho I suppose an obscure anonymous lawyer from Scotland might have more insight than every expert in this field, so I might give you their email addresses so you can set them right
https://www.dainst.blog/the-tepe-telegrams/2017/08/09/a-short-note-on-a-new-figurine-type-from-goebekli-tepe/
“The other important characteristic of the depiction is the prominent erect phallus. Göbekli Tepe´s iconography is generally nearly exclusively male (e.g. Dietrich and Notroff 2015.85), and the phallus features prominently in several depictions of animals and humans. For example, a headless ithyphallic body is depicted on Pillar 43 amongst birds, snakes and a large scorpion (Schmidt 2006). Although the central pillars of the large enclosures are clearly marked as human through the depiction of arms, hands, and in the case of Enclosure D also items of clothing, their sex is not indicated. An erect phallus however is a prominent feature of the foxes depicted on several of the central pillars. There are also a few phallus sculptures from the site (e.g. Schmidt 1999.9, Plate 2/3-4).”
I still think the local elections could be quite interesting and Slab needs to come 2nd at least in seats and ideally win in Glasgow to change the narrative although I also expect the SCon vote to be surprisingly resilient outside of Edinburgh.
Andrew is only 9th in the line of succession now so what he thinks on anything is of little relevance given he has now effectively been consigned to royal exile
That’s a brilliant analogy, in the circs. All the pathetic stony faced dicks. The one solitary menacing fat head on a snake overseeing them
Bravo