Sunak still favourite for next CON leader but only a 20% chance – politicalbetting.com
Sunak still favourite for next CON leader but only a 20% chance – politicalbetting.com
There’s been very little betting reaction to the latest news of the party gate fines and we are going to have to wait until we know what is going to happen to Johnson. It is still an evens chance that his exit date will be 2024 or later.
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But he says he’ll probably lead the Tories into the next election because “Tory MPs are complicit in it”
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1509068291683270662
There is no sign that Germany will comply with Putin's ultimatum, even though Russia has explicitly said it will turn off the taps unless Gazprom and other state-owned energy companies receive payment in rubles. /2
https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1509065487484952584
Snowing now.
Though Wallace now has better net ratings than Sunak in terms of the next Tory leader when Johnson does eventually go
I do think it's ridiculous to pretend that men have babies. They don't. Anyone having a baby is a mother.
Boris is a one off politician who frankly is bored with day to day politics and does not do detail as we all know
I am not suggesting he won't lead but it is not 100% certain
So, in the scenario that the next leadership election occurs while Starmer is considering whether he can tolerate the wallpaper in No 10, we have to consider who would make the Tories feel good about themselves? I have a sneaking suspicion that someone like Steve Baker, would be the leader who would let the Tories avoid facing up to why they lost for a good few years.
https://twitter.com/benjamincohen/status/1509071412950179841
Worth reading statement.
Which means that he wants to survive longer than May, longer than Brown and ideally longer than Cameron.
That latter one is going to depend on (I suspect) not the likelihood of the Tories winning the next election but Bozo winning Uxbridge
Thankfully the losses on that one, were outweighed by the profits on backing May at 10/1 a couple of years earlier!
I think Sunak had a narrow window of opportunity, which has passed now that war, pandemic and birthday cake talk has been replaced by inflation and cost of living talk.
It is possible that a "comfort" leader of the kind you describe could *also* be the reformer who strips away the liars and the charlatans and gets them back to a core set of values of public service and administrative competence on which they could build.
Edit: I mean, would the ordinary voters vote for that? (For their very varied reasons.)
“Good evening ladies and gentleman, or as Keir Starmer would put it, people who are assigned female or male at birth.”
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1509074626554601473
But yes - this is a serious issue. We have the vast mass of people trying to do the right thing by treating people with respect and calling them by what they would like to be called, but the topic itself is being weaponised on both extremes.
For the vast majority of men there is no conceivable way that they could be pregnant (see what I did there). But there is a tiny subset of people who wish to be considered as male, but could be pregnant, and there would be a risk to an unborn child in those cases. How we best mitigate that risk is the question. I'm not sure asking every man the question is the best way.
But - hospitals check stuff repeatedly for a reason. If you spend any time at all in hospital you will get fed up with constantly giving your name and dob. Nursing staff will double check products before giving them to you.
Why? To avoid sawing off the wrong leg, or taking out the wrong kidney, or giving you the wrong bloods. Its all about error reduction.
So the question 'are you pregnant?' to every man seems ridiculous, but I think they are trying to avoid harm and have not hit the most sensible way to do this.
Doesn't even need to be a pre-leadership-election position.
Touch of the John XXIII.
So as with Labour and Brown, the failure of the coup means the Conservatives are stuck with Johnson.
The only way I see him going is if he gets fed up with being booed. Unlikely, but not impossible if the economic projections are even half right. And if things are that bad, who takes over?
Hard to say this without appearing sniffy and hopelessly old-fashioned, but I would have thought MPs would have got that sort of thing out of their systems long before becoming MPs.
I felt just as uncomfortable when I read about Dehenna Davison's internet dating.
It is one of the key differences between the gay rights movement & the extremist trans one now. Gay rights activists argued for their position. They persuaded & convinced & showed. They did not assert & try to shut down.
This comparison is such a false, dishonest & dangerous one.
https://twitter.com/Cyclefree2/status/1509077046475071495
UKRAINE PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER SAYS RUSSIA TRANSFERRING FORCES FROM NORTH OF UKRAINE TO EASTERN UKRAINE TO ENCIRCLE OUR TROOPS
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1509078540804927495
Would any previous Tory leader have brazenly lied to parliament and said "what lies" despite the indisputable proof of their lies? "You're just anti-Tory" is the whine, but wold May have behaved like this? Cameron? Howard? Thatcher?
Previously you could argue that parties deserve to lose power because they have run out of ideas and have poor policies. I can't remember one like this that thinks the rule of law and the rules of parliament do not apply to them.
The phrase "hook up" perhaps suggests casual sex rather than serious seeking of a relationship, but I'm not sure that today's Britain will feel especially critical of an unmarried MP having some casual sex while they ponder what sort of relationship they want.
Which prompts the idle question: what sort of things apart from outright crime would deter us from voting for a candidate, if they represented our preferred parties?
But the first step can often be being open about it. They seem to have decided to put everything out there at once.
I wish the best of luck.
Seriously, if you are already open and honest with people about who you are, you don't know what it is like carrying this huge weight of the big shaming secret.
Trump brazenly asks Putin to release dirt about Biden's family
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/29/politics/trump-putin-hunter-biden/index.html
(Note this is now, during the Ukraine war, not an old story.)
March 29-30
In the direction of Kharkov more counterattack
In the eastern part of Chernihiv, there are no longer any signs of Russian military activity, the Russian front has been moved to adapt to the river line from which the Russians blew up bridges, based on our analysis and information from locals.
Certainly looks that way from the outside, but some of the current Tory members, such as HYUFD, might know differently...
What a woke party!
If on the other hand his story rings true, the best of luck to him.
I suppose this isn't new - Harvey Proctor, Mark Oaten and that Labour MP from East London with the colourful private life from the post-war era all spring to mind. Only the technology is different.
Considering the modernist approach of Cameron in accepting LD proposals on gay marriage and rights its really shameful that the Tory party has collapsed into the sewer like this so spectacularly.
If it was a moral crusade I could at least understand it. But it isn't. They have no real view on women with willies, they just think they can whip up the issue in the minds of voters they sneeringly consider to be small-minded idiots.
Has anyone kept a count of cases / incidents?
I'll give him a hell of a lot of credit for going through acceptable routes rather than trying to exploit his position of power with his staff or constituents.
Everything else about his life as per wikipedia also screams "absolute veracity."
Honestly this imagined woke stuff is just that- imagined.
If you'd read the MP's statement you'd realise that he'd been raped - with a penis - and thats one of the concerns that arise over access to natal women only places such as refuges.
Was that part of his statement?
What was part of his statement was his experience of rape. One of the "transphobic" (sic) concerns of natal women and self-ID.
It includes: "I’m trans. Or to be more accurate, I want to be." Read into that what you will.
I am very healthy but at the height of the pandemic I had a paralyzed vocal cord which could have been very serious (cancer). It wasn't. And more recently broken my legs.
I have nothing but praise for my GP and the NHS. No issue with face to face appointments. I was straight in with the vocal cord, camera down my throat and MRI all within 2 weeks. Re my leg I made a non urgent appointment with the GP just to get the physio stuff organised in advance. Face to face appointment on the day I called.
I guess I am very lucky ( other than with the injuries obviously)
So, the Tory attack on Starmer for saying a woman can have a penis...
Or so he says. And when a fat Tory says a thing, I take that thing to be true. What do you do?
No sense of cards being played here. No, sirree.
Declared interest; the girl who became Mrs C and I met at college. From widely different parts of the country.
The precedent that PMs do not resign automatically for lying was therefore set well before Boris
Those that get offended need to get a life.
Note; for the avoidance of doubt, I was against the war and think our handling of the Middle East has been shambolic mess since 1917.
To get a diagnosis of gender dysphoria, you know what you do? You go to a doctor and say Doctor, I have gender dysphoria. C'est tout. It's not like there's an objective correlative that gets picked up on an MRI scan.
He is a tory MP.
Well, more or less, and only in extreme corner cases. I knew a man with a micro-penis. At another time, he might have had surgery and been raised as a girl.
That is also the trouble with the trans debate. A lot of angst about edge cases. Most trans women don't rape people in the ladies'. Nor, so far as I can tell, do most cis male rapists.