Hong Kong has one of the most stringent anti-Covid regimes in the world. 21 day compulsory quarantine, etc
Yet still, pointless: Covid has run amok.
Their cases have now peaked. But the dead will pile up for a while
Hong Kong had/has the HIGHEST peak death rate of any country since Covid began I believe.
And where HK goes, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Shanghai follow.
Indeed. Hong Kong has been registering a Case Fatality Rate of 5%. 1 in 20 cases dying - the unvaxxed old
China may avoid this fate, they are surging booster shots across the country, might be just in time. South Korea seems to be dodging the bullet: eg today they report 400,000 cases - huge numbers - but "only" 164 deaths.
If S Korea had the CFR of HK they would be reporting 20,000 deaths a day
South Korea has administered at least 120,028,530 doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 116.1% of the country’s population.
Has Putin just turned on the billionaires and the oligarchs?
He seems to have made a speech saying people who can't get by without a villa in France and oysters and so on are basically not Russian and exist in their heads "somewhere else".
No Nato membership or foreign military bases. That seems a decent offer but could Putin really sell that as a win?
Presumably they are yielding Crimea forever, and maybe the separatist bits in the East?
Which is not unjustifiable. Crimea is more "Russian" than "Ukrainian"
You really, really don't want to be Russian in the future. That future gets worse with every day.
It is tragic. The videos of Russian tanks getting obliterated are gratifying, in one way - it is good to see a brutal invader defeated - but they are also intensely sad. Young men dying in agony for the lunatic vanity of a sick old man. And dying in their thousands
What a rancid state of affairs. Imagine what it must feel like now, to be a Russian conscript in Kherson. You are fighting a criminal fascist war of invasion against a nation that rightly hates you, meanwhile your dictator is probably about to sue for peace, so your death, when and if it arrives, will be as futile as it is painful
And, if you do survive to return home, you'll be sent to prison if you tell the truth about your harrowing experiences.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
What do the US Navy or a Marshall of the Royal Air Force know when put up against the intellectual might of a Parish Councillor from Epping who's never seen a rifle or looked at any war in history?
Noit fair. HYUFD probably got his time done in the CCF at his grammar school, and that includes rifles.
- Cases - UP. R is crawling up a bit. Currently 1.35 or so. - In hospital - UP - MV Beds - Flat(ish) - Admissions - UP. R has stabilised at 1.1 - Deaths - DOWN. Falling very slowly now.
Won't deaths & MV beds (being lagging indicators) reflect what was happening with infections 10-14 days ago?
We shall see - it depends also on the virulence of BA.2 vs vaccinations and previous infection.
Admissions *not* accelerating fast is an early indicator on this.
Just as well elections are not restricted to 18 to 24 year olds here or in France, otherwise Corbyn would now be UK PM and France's presidential election would be a runoff between Melenchon on the far left and Le Pen on the far right
Has Putin just turned on the billionaires and the oligarchs?
He seems to have made a speech saying people who can't get by without a villa in France and oysters and so on are basically not Russian and exist in their heads "somewhere else".
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Well, would it be for the greater good?
What does normalising the annexations gain you over disputing them, but not actively pursuing military means to regain them? And, would it necessarily be so bad if Ukraine were to regain them militarily at some point int he future, as Croatia did with those parts of Croatia that had been occupied by the Serbs?
It’s debatable. Personally I’m not sure. It sticks in the craw to let a bully like Russia away with its annexations. And it sets a bad precedent.
On the other hand, I’m extremely keen to avoid further bloodshed and to allow Ukraine to get on with much-needed economic reconstruction.
Probably from a pure realpolitik perspective we in the West would want to continue to see Russia drained, but it comes at the price of Ukrainian lives.
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
Has Putin just turned on the billionaires and the oligarchs?
He seems to have made a speech saying people who can't get by without a villa in France and oysters and so on are basically not Russian and exist in their heads "somewhere else".
Has Putin just turned on the billionaires and the oligarchs?
He seems to have made a speech saying people who can't get by without a villa in France and oysters and so on are basically not Russian and exist in their heads "somewhere else".
Has Putin just turned on the billionaires and the oligarchs?
He seems to have made a speech saying people who can't get by without a villa in France and oysters and so on are basically not Russian and exist in their heads "somewhere else".
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
Right you want to restart this I can go on all evening and all night now if needed.
None of that changes whatsoever my point that Thatcher was prepared to fight to retake the Falklands as Argentina did not have nuclear weapons unlike us and had a far weaker military like us. Hence we won the war and she would have continued to fight the war no matter what the cost.
Sending a no fly zone into Ukraine against a Russia armed with nuclear weapons is however a totally different ball game
Even had all our carriers been sunk and most of our destroyers and frigates been sunk (which they weren't and was highly unlikely) we could still have placed submarines armed with nuclear weapons off the coast off Argentina and refused to remove them until the Argentines withdrew
Has Putin just turned on the billionaires and the oligarchs?
He seems to have made a speech saying people who can't get by without a villa in France and oysters and so on are basically not Russian and exist in their heads "somewhere else".
Citizens of nowhere…..
If he is turning on the oligarchs then he must be very worried they are about to turn on him. Seems all is not well in the Kremlin.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
Right you want to restart this I can go on all evening and all night now if needed.
None of that changes whatsoever my point that Thatcher was prepared to fight to retake the Falklands as Argentina did not have nuclear weapons unlike us and had a far weaker military like us. Hence we won the war and she would have continued to fight the war no matter what the cost.
Sending a no fly zone into Ukraine against a Russia armed with nuclear weapons is however a totally different ball game
Even had all our carriers been sunk and most of our destroyers and frigates been sunk (which they weren't and was highly unlikely) we could still have placed submarines armed with nuclear weapons off the coast off Argentina and refused to remove them until the Argentines withdrew
I remember suggesting that to my father at the time. I will never forget the look of love and sympathy as he said to me, his adored six year old son “don’t worry my boy, one day you will grow up and with age will come wisdom”.
Has Putin just turned on the billionaires and the oligarchs?
He seems to have made a speech saying people who can't get by without a villa in France and oysters and so on are basically not Russian and exist in their heads "somewhere else".
Citizens of nowhere…..
Russian Remainers
Well, it’s certainly true that Russia has been “hard Brexited” by the West.
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
Yes, we need to be serious. "Humiliating" Putin is stupid, as long as he remains in charge and as long as he has nukes.
Don't corner the rat. Give him an exit. It would be nice if we could eliminate him from global politics, at some point and in some way, but right now the world just needs to step back from the abyss, and end the war. Then we re-arm and wait, and hope that Russia mends itself
We don't need to punish Russia further. It is already quite humbled and the sanctions have already done serious longterm damage
If I were Chechnya I'd be annoyed. They don't get to be their own puppet 'independent' state, even though they do get their own semi autonomous autocrat within Russia.
What happens next in Belarus might be interesting.
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
You’re right.
The defenestration of Putin is not a sensible goal because it cannot guaranteed.
However the withdrawal of Russia, and some form of protection from future aggressions, must be.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
Mold always grows back
Mold is a small village in North Wales, which demands you apologise for this comparison.
Mould is what appears on your overripe melons.
Unless you an American, but in matters of English spelling Americans are always wrong.
Mold is a small village in North Wales .. Its great treasure (the Mold Cape) was stolen by an imperialist power and taken to London to be stored in the British Museum (of Looted Artefacts).
Mold’s quite big. County town of Flint.
My forefathers come from Mold way. If anyone asks, I say Holywell.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
Mold always grows back
Mold is a small village in North Wales, which demands you apologise for this comparison.
Mould is what appears on your overripe melons.
Unless you an American, but in matters of English spelling Americans are always wrong.
Mold is a small village in North Wales .. Its great treasure (the Mold Cape) was stolen by an imperialist power and taken to London to be stored in the British Museum (of Looted Artefacts).
Mold’s quite big. County town of Flint.
My forefathers come from Mold way. If anyone asks, I say Holywell.
We all come from mould, sort of.
Mold is nicer than Holywell. Though Holywell has a nicer name. There is a lovely pub just outside Mold called the Glasfryn. Or at least there was I 2008.
Судя по перехватам разговоров российских военных – массовые бунты и отказы воевать против Украины. Целыми батальонами идут в отказ. Путин теряет власть даже у военных.
Judging by the intercepts of Russian military conversations, there are mass riots and refusals to fight against Ukraine. Whole battalions go into denial. Putin is losing power even among the military.
Just as well elections are not restricted to 18 to 24 year olds here or in France, otherwise Corbyn would now be UK PM and France's presidential election would be a runoff between Melenchon on the far left and Le Pen on the far right
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Well, would it be for the greater good?
What does normalising the annexations gain you over disputing them, but not actively pursuing military means to regain them? And, would it necessarily be so bad if Ukraine were to regain them militarily at some point int he future, as Croatia did with those parts of Croatia that had been occupied by the Serbs?
Has Putin just turned on the billionaires and the oligarchs?
He seems to have made a speech saying people who can't get by without a villa in France and oysters and so on are basically not Russian and exist in their heads "somewhere else".
Citizens of nowhere…..
Russian Remainers
We also know from here how much allegations of disloyalty really get under people's skin. The oligarchs will be out to get Putin now.
Lawrence Freedman @LawDavF · 3h At some point it is going to occur to Moldova and Georgia that if the Russian army continues on its current self- destructive path some currently frozen conflicts might get unfrozen.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
I would have thought it would be a multi-step process, with sanctions slowly ratcheted down as Russia proved it could be trusted and as they agreed (and paid) reparations.
Some sanctions - on military or technical equipment, though - might never be removed.
Part if that process needs to be Russia paying to rebuild Ukraine. Either voluntarily or from their frozen assets
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
Right you want to restart this I can go on all evening and all night now if needed.
None of that changes whatsoever my point that Thatcher was prepared to fight to retake the Falklands as Argentina did not have nuclear weapons unlike us and had a far weaker military like us. Hence we won the war and she would have continued to fight the war no matter what the cost.
Sending a no fly zone into Ukraine against a Russia armed with nuclear weapons is however a totally different ball game
Even had all our carriers been sunk and most of our destroyers and frigates been sunk (which they weren't and was highly unlikely) we could still have placed submarines armed with nuclear weapons off the coast off Argentina and refused to remove them until the Argentines withdrew
I remember suggesting that to my father at the time. I will never forget the look of love and sympathy as he said to me, his adored six year old son “don’t worry my boy, one day you will grow up and with age will come wisdom”.
It was what Kruschev did in Cuba, only the Argentines unlike JFK's US would not have had any nuclear weapons to respond with
No Nato membership or foreign military bases. That seems a decent offer but could Putin really sell that as a win?
Presumably they are yielding Crimea forever, and maybe the separatist bits in the East?
Which is not unjustifiable. Crimea is more "Russian" than "Ukrainian"
From my perspective it certainly is unjustifiable. Crimea has been Ukrainian since 1954. It voted to leave the Soviet Union. Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons in return for a commitment by the US/UK/Russia to respect its territorial integrity. It's territory has been taken by force and its citizens held hostage by a terrorist state. A referendum on its future could be held with proper international oversight.
Now maybe 'realism' suggests you sometimes have to appease terror and violence. But that's what it would be.
A plebiscite in Crimea - which would be assumed to be won by pro-Russians - is perhaps the fig leaf we need to overlook the sordid nature of its annexation by Russia.
Danger of feeding and emboldening the monster though. Not an easy call. My instinct is to increase support to Ukraine to the max short of military intervention and call bluff on warnings from Moscow, combined with maximum sanctions on Russia to be eased only slightly at each stage of their withdrawal.
Has Putin just turned on the billionaires and the oligarchs?
He seems to have made a speech saying people who can't get by without a villa in France and oysters and so on are basically not Russian and exist in their heads "somewhere else".
Citizens of nowhere…..
Russian Remainers
We also know from here how much allegations of disloyalty really get under people's skin. The oligarchs will be out to get Putin now.
He is either mad or he knows he is on the run and they are already plotting his downfall. Seems a desperate attempt to get RU public to be up in arms about rich people who own villas next to the villa that Putin's rich daughter owns.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
Right you want to restart this I can go on all evening and all night now if needed.
None of that changes whatsoever my point that Thatcher was prepared to fight to retake the Falklands as Argentina did not have nuclear weapons unlike us and had a far weaker military like us. Hence we won the war and she would have continued to fight the war no matter what the cost.
Sending a no fly zone into Ukraine against a Russia armed with nuclear weapons is however a totally different ball game
Even had all our carriers been sunk and most of our destroyers and frigates been sunk (which they weren't and was highly unlikely) we could still have placed submarines armed with nuclear weapons off the coast off Argentina and refused to remove them until the Argentines withdrew
Nuclear blackmail? Yes, good strategy. I'm sure no other countries would have objected.
No Nato membership or foreign military bases. That seems a decent offer but could Putin really sell that as a win?
Presumably they are yielding Crimea forever, and maybe the separatist bits in the East?
Which is not unjustifiable. Crimea is more "Russian" than "Ukrainian"
From my perspective it certainly is unjustifiable. Crimea has been Ukrainian since 1954. It voted to leave the Soviet Union. Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons in return for a commitment by the US/UK/Russia to respect its territorial integrity. It's territory has been taken by force and its citizens held hostage by a terrorist state. A referendum on its future could be held with proper international oversight.
Now maybe 'realism' suggests you sometimes have to appease terror and violence. But that's what it would be.
A plebiscite in Crimea - which would be assumed to be won by pro-Russians - is perhaps the fig leaf we need to overlook the sordid nature of its annexation by Russia.
Danger of feeding and emboldening the monster though. Not an easy call. My instinct is to increase support to Ukraine to the max short of military intervention and call bluff on warnings from Moscow, combined with maximum sanctions on Russia to be eased only slightly at each stage of their withdrawal.
Or tie removal of sanctions to massive cuts in their nuke stockpiles…..
Судя по перехватам разговоров российских военных – массовые бунты и отказы воевать против Украины. Целыми батальонами идут в отказ. Путин теряет власть даже у военных.
Judging by the intercepts of Russian military conversations, there are mass riots and refusals to fight against Ukraine. Whole battalions go into denial. Putin is losing power even among the military.
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
You’re right.
The defenestration of Putin is not a sensible goal because it cannot guaranteed.
However the withdrawal of Russia, and some form of protection from future aggressions, must be.
We could invite him to talks and make sure he is standing next to an open window. Better not have them in Prague though, as he may get suspicious
Has Putin just turned on the billionaires and the oligarchs?
He seems to have made a speech saying people who can't get by without a villa in France and oysters and so on are basically not Russian and exist in their heads "somewhere else".
Citizens of nowhere…..
Russian Remainers
We also know from here how much allegations of disloyalty really get under people's skin. The oligarchs will be out to get Putin now.
He is either mad or he knows he is on the run and they are already plotting his downfall. Seems a desperate attempt to get RU public to be up in arms about rich people who own villas next to the villa that Putin's rich daughter owns.
A dictator is surely at his most dangerous when he is close to the end. That's when Putin might really do something stupid, if he sees he has nothing to lose
So if these rumours are true, and there are several straws in the wind - from the alleged mutinies to the resigning TV journalists - then this is still a highly perilous global moment
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Well, would it be for the greater good?
What does normalising the annexations gain you over disputing them, but not actively pursuing military means to regain them? And, would it necessarily be so bad if Ukraine were to regain them militarily at some point int he future, as Croatia did with those parts of Croatia that had been occupied by the Serbs?
It’s debatable. Personally I’m not sure. It sticks in the craw to let a bully like Russia away with its annexations. And it sets a bad precedent.
On the other hand, I’m extremely keen to avoid further bloodshed and to allow Ukraine to get on with much-needed economic reconstruction.
Probably from a pure realpolitik perspective we in the West would want to continue to see Russia drained, but it comes at the price of Ukrainian lives.
Well, fundamentally, it will be Ukrainians making the choice whether to continue to put their lives at risk, not us, so I don't think we should frame the choice in terms of whether *we* are willing to ask Ukrainians to sacrifice their lives for *us*. The root of this conflict is about Ukrainians retaining the freedom to make their own choices.
Lawrence Freedman @LawDavF · 3h At some point it is going to occur to Moldova and Georgia that if the Russian army continues on its current self- destructive path some currently frozen conflicts might get unfrozen.
Fast tracking Moldova into NATO seems to me to be an obvious move. Along with Sweden and Finland. Georgia is more problematic given their geographic location although they do share a border with a NATO country.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
Right you want to restart this I can go on all evening and all night now if needed.
None of that changes whatsoever my point that Thatcher was prepared to fight to retake the Falklands as Argentina did not have nuclear weapons unlike us and had a far weaker military like us. Hence we won the war and she would have continued to fight the war no matter what the cost.
Sending a no fly zone into Ukraine against a Russia armed with nuclear weapons is however a totally different ball game
Biden has openly told the world tonight he and the allies are arming Ukraine with sophisticated equipment immediately and taking supplies from stock to ensure Ukraine is able to attack Russian army in Ukraine.
The weapons included those that Ukraine can enact as a de facto no fly zone
Seems to me this open defiance of Putin and challenging him directly
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
You’re right.
The defenestration of Putin is not a sensible goal because it cannot guaranteed.
However the withdrawal of Russia, and some form of protection from future aggressions, must be.
We could invite him to talks and make sure he is standing next to an open window. Better not have them in Prague though, as he may get suspicious
He wouldn’t worry about being defenestrated in Prague as on historical precedent he would be fine as none of the intended victims died as they landed on piles of garbage (I think).
I’m thinking Singapore, by the pool in the Marina Bay.
Another good header, @Cyclefree . I was struck by how little reaction the story about what was effectively sexual assault of a schoolgirl by Met police, with the reported acquiescence of her school, got here.
Though the fact that we’re teetering, and possibly edging away from the brink of armageddon does provide something of a distraction, it’s still distinctly uncomfortable.
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
Yes, we need to be serious. "Humiliating" Putin is stupid, as long as he remains in charge and as long as he has nukes.
Don't corner the rat. Give him an exit. It would be nice if we could eliminate him from global politics, at some point and in some way, but right now the world just needs to step back from the abyss, and end the war. Then we re-arm and wait, and hope that Russia mends itself
We don't need to punish Russia further, not right now. It is already quite humbled and the sanctions have already done serious longterm damage
I am afraid you are misreading the nature of the regime. We have been talking about off ramps for months now, and the reality is that the Kremlin does not want an off ramp. Indeed continuing to discuss even fig leaf concessions is counter productive. Literally the only thing that is understood in the mafia state is the naked use of power. In fact you should increase the pressure and upgrade the Ukrainian military capabilities to the point where they can successfully go on the offensive. This rat must be cornered before he recognises that he has no choice but to make whatever peace he can. To let him off the hook leaves him like Saddam Hussein after Desert Storm, when actually the defeat needs to be sufficiently comprehensive to ensure regime change.
Few governments make the kind of mistake that Putin has and survive. The West has been threatened with nuclear anhillation. If there is any way to ensure the removal of the tyrant as quickly as possible, then it should be taken now. Leaving him in place is simply too dangerous.
Судя по перехватам разговоров российских военных – массовые бунты и отказы воевать против Украины. Целыми батальонами идут в отказ. Путин теряет власть даже у военных.
Judging by the intercepts of Russian military conversations, there are mass riots and refusals to fight against Ukraine. Whole battalions go into denial. Putin is losing power even among the military.
BBC “ More now from the besieged port city of Mariupol – the city's deputy mayor has told the BBC that Russian forces have bombed a theatre where hundreds of civilians were sheltering.
Serhiy Orlov said between 1,000 and 1,200 people were in the building. The number of casualties was still unknown, he said. The BBC could not independently verify the information...”
Another good header, @Cyclefree . I was struck by how little reaction the story about what was effectively sexual assault of a schoolgirl by Met police, with the reported acquiescence of her school, got here.
Though the fact that we’re teetering, and possibly edging away from the brink of armageddon does provide something of a distraction.
Part of it is what can we say that is new? That much of the Met is unthinking, misogynist, racist and unaccountable has been done ad nauseum. Hopefully a new leader can start to change it, but doubt they will have much success.
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
I get ineffective, I even get dangerous. But where the hell do you get vindictive from? This fucker is responsible for the deaths of thousands of people - both Russians and Ukrainians. I think wanting him out of power and preferably strung up by the balls - even if counter productive and so not desirable for securing peace - is anything but vindictive.
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
I get ineffective, I even get dangerous. But where the hell do you get vindictive from? This fucker is responsible for the deaths of thousands of people - both Russians and Ukrainians. I think wanting him out of power and preferably strung up by the balls - even if counter productive and so not desirable for securing peace - is anything but vindictive.
Shit, I meant vindictive as against the ordinary Russian people who will bear the brunt of punitive sanctions. Nothing could be too bad for Putin.
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
Yes, we need to be serious. "Humiliating" Putin is stupid, as long as he remains in charge and as long as he has nukes.
Don't corner the rat. Give him an exit. It would be nice if we could eliminate him from global politics, at some point and in some way, but right now the world just needs to step back from the abyss, and end the war. Then we re-arm and wait, and hope that Russia mends itself
We don't need to punish Russia further, not right now. It is already quite humbled and the sanctions have already done serious longterm damage
I am afraid you are misreading the nature of the regime. We have been talking about off ramps for months now, and the reality is that the Kremlin does not want an off ramp. Indeed continuing to discuss even fig leaf concessions is counter productive. Literally the only thing that is understood in the mafia state is the naked use of power. In fact you should increase the pressure and upgrade the Ukrainian military capabilities to the point where they can successfully go on the offensive. This rat must be cornered before he recognises that he has no choice but to make whatever peace he can. To let him off the hook leaves him like Saddam Hussein after Desert Storm, when actually the defeat needs to be sufficiently comprehensive to ensure regime change.
Few governments make the kind of mistake that Putin has and survive. The West has been threatened with nuclear anhillation. If there is any way to ensure the removal of the tyrant as quickly as possible, then it should be taken now. Leaving him in place is simply too dangerous.
I take your point but it would be much better and safer if the Putin regime is toppled by the Russians themselves, and there are a few hopeful signs that may just happen. Let us see how it pans out
Moreover, at the moment the imperatives are: stop the war in Ukraine and back away from nuclear doomsday
The world, or at least the media in the West, really has gone the full bonkers.
It's grotesque to obscure the extent of misogyny that exists by cooperating with the pretence of violent men in cases like this. It's an insult to the murdered victims.
A man has committed those murders. A man.
Up is not down. Mutton is not lamb. Russia's war in Ukraine started with an invasion. And the brutal serial murderer of women in that article is a man - no matter what doublethink he might want to impose on others.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
Right you want to restart this I can go on all evening and all night now if needed.
None of that changes whatsoever my point that Thatcher was prepared to fight to retake the Falklands as Argentina did not have nuclear weapons unlike us and had a far weaker military like us. Hence we won the war and she would have continued to fight the war no matter what the cost.
Sending a no fly zone into Ukraine against a Russia armed with nuclear weapons is however a totally different ball game
Even had all our carriers been sunk and most of our destroyers and frigates been sunk (which they weren't and was highly unlikely) we could still have placed submarines armed with nuclear weapons off the coast off Argentina and refused to remove them until the Argentines withdrew
I remember suggesting that to my father at the time. I will never forget the look of love and sympathy as he said to me, his adored six year old son “don’t worry my boy, one day you will grow up and with age will come wisdom”.
It was what Kruschev did in Cuba, only the Argentines unlike JFK's US would not have had any nuclear weapons to respond with
Krushchev pulled missiles out of Cuba only because JFK pulled missiles out of Turkey, a quid pro quo nobody really remembers these days.
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
Yes, we need to be serious. "Humiliating" Putin is stupid, as long as he remains in charge and as long as he has nukes.
Don't corner the rat. Give him an exit. It would be nice if we could eliminate him from global politics, at some point and in some way, but right now the world just needs to step back from the abyss, and end the war. Then we re-arm and wait, and hope that Russia mends itself
We don't need to punish Russia further, not right now. It is already quite humbled and the sanctions have already done serious longterm damage
I am afraid you are misreading the nature of the regime. We have been talking about off ramps for months now, and the reality is that the Kremlin does not want an off ramp. Indeed continuing to discuss even fig leaf concessions is counter productive. Literally the only thing that is understood in the mafia state is the naked use of power. In fact you should increase the pressure and upgrade the Ukrainian military capabilities to the point where they can successfully go on the offensive. This rat must be cornered before he recognises that he has no choice but to make whatever peace he can. To let him off the hook leaves him like Saddam Hussein after Desert Storm, when actually the defeat needs to be sufficiently comprehensive to ensure regime change.
Few governments make the kind of mistake that Putin has and survive. The West has been threatened with nuclear anhillation. If there is any way to ensure the removal of the tyrant as quickly as possible, then it should be taken now. Leaving him in place is simply too dangerous.
We established upthread that Charles xii of Sweden, Hitler, Napoleon and ancient Athens survived for years after equivalent mistakes. What are your counter examples?
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
You’re right.
The defenestration of Putin is not a sensible goal because it cannot guaranteed.
However the withdrawal of Russia, and some form of protection from future aggressions, must be.
We could invite him to talks and make sure he is standing next to an open window. Better not have them in Prague though, as he may get suspicious
He wouldn’t worry about being defenestrated in Prague as on historical precedent he would be fine as none of the intended victims died as they landed on piles of garbage (I think).
I’m thinking Singapore, by the pool in the Marina Bay.
The First Defenestration was more deadly. As was Jan Masaryk's (assuming he was murdered by the Russians).
The world, or at least the media in the West, really has gone the full bonkers.
It's grotesque to obscure the extent of misogyny that exists by cooperating with the pretence of violent men in cases like this. It's an insult to the murdered victims.
A man has committed those murders. A man.
Up is not down. Mutton is not lamb. Russia's war in Ukraine started with an invasion. And the brutal serial murderer of women in that article is a man - no matter what doublethink he might want to impose on others.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
Right you want to restart this I can go on all evening and all night now if needed.
None of that changes whatsoever my point that Thatcher was prepared to fight to retake the Falklands as Argentina did not have nuclear weapons unlike us and had a far weaker military like us. Hence we won the war and she would have continued to fight the war no matter what the cost.
Sending a no fly zone into Ukraine against a Russia armed with nuclear weapons is however a totally different ball game
See you still want to argue with me on a totally different subject. I repeat again and again and again that my only objection was that you said 3 times the Falklands war was easy. I have provided additional evidence that, that wasn't true. As everyone except you knows.
Can you never admit you were wrong? Because boy were you spectacularly wrong.
The world, or at least the media in the West, really has gone the full bonkers.
It's grotesque to obscure the extent of misogyny that exists by cooperating with the pretence of violent men in cases like this. It's an insult to the murdered victims.
A man has committed those murders. A man.
Up is not down. Mutton is not lamb. Russia's war in Ukraine started with an invasion. And the brutal serial murderer of women in that article is a man - no matter what doublethink he might want to impose on others.
It makes sense to immediately start identifying as a woman if you get arrested for a serious crime. Women get far smaller prison sentences for the same crime, and they are also hosted in better conditions.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
Right you want to restart this I can go on all evening and all night now if needed.
None of that changes whatsoever my point that Thatcher was prepared to fight to retake the Falklands as Argentina did not have nuclear weapons unlike us and had a far weaker military like us. Hence we won the war and she would have continued to fight the war no matter what the cost.
Sending a no fly zone into Ukraine against a Russia armed with nuclear weapons is however a totally different ball game
Even had all our carriers been sunk and most of our destroyers and frigates been sunk (which they weren't and was highly unlikely) we could still have placed submarines armed with nuclear weapons off the coast off Argentina and refused to remove them until the Argentines withdrew
I remember suggesting that to my father at the time. I will never forget the look of love and sympathy as he said to me, his adored six year old son “don’t worry my boy, one day you will grow up and with age will come wisdom”.
It was what Kruschev did in Cuba, only the Argentines unlike JFK's US would not have had any nuclear weapons to respond with
Krushchev pulled missiles out of Cuba only because JFK pulled missiles out of Turkey, a quid pro quo nobody really remembers these days.
Part of why Krushchev got the shove was that he tried to claim that as a trade - except that the Jupiters were junk and being decommissioned any way.
Kennedy's plan with nukes was to bin all the weird expedients/oddities that had come out of the 50s - Regulus, Jupiter, nuclear powered planes, Project Pluto.....
And replace them with Minutemen and Polaris. The original plan was 10,000 Minutemen missiles...
I've lost track, is Cummings back to evil and untrustworthy, or is his every word gospel again?
A truly, deeply and dispiritingly stupid contribution. Thank you.
Brighter readers will have noted that the value of Cummings's claims is that they are about a conversation with - allegedly - multiple identifiable witnesses. They are verifiable.
This is a dangerously unhinged tyrant, talking like Late Stage Hitler, with a weird sigh in the middle. We need to approach with extreme caution
"I have translated and added subtitles to the latest video speech by Vladimir Putin from two hours ago. Please don’t let it go in vain - I want everyone to see what a speech of true fascism looks like.
No further comment needed, it’s all here, in his speech"
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
I get ineffective, I even get dangerous. But where the hell do you get vindictive from? This fucker is responsible for the deaths of thousands of people - both Russians and Ukrainians. I think wanting him out of power and preferably strung up by the balls - even if counter productive and so not desirable for securing peace - is anything but vindictive.
Shit, I meant vindictive as against the ordinary Russian people who will bear the brunt of punitive sanctions. Nothing could be too bad for Putin.
Apologies. I agree entirely.
Indeed, if they got rid of Putin and his immediate entourage - particularly if he ended up somehow in a court either in Russia or at the Hague - I would go so far as to completely disassociate Russia as a state from his actions. Obviously it would not be true as such but it would be worth turning a blind eye to the facts in favour of politics. It would show that we were not being malicious regarding the normal Russian people - that was the mistake in 1919 with Germany. Make it clear that Dictators are held responsible for their actions both internally and externally.
So much Russian money has been sequestered away by Putin and his senior people along with the Oligarchs that we could use the proceeds of crime laws to strip it from them, use some to help rebuild Ukraine and make a gesture of giving some back to a democratic Russian Government.
Again. I am talking pipe dreams unfortunately but if I ruled the world that would be the approach I took.
I've lost track, is Cummings back to evil and untrustworthy, or is his every word gospel again?
A truly, deeply and dispiritingly stupid contribution. Thank you.
Brighter readers will have noted that the value of Cummings's claims is that they are about a conversation with - allegedly - multiple identifiable witnesses. They are verifiable.
The world, or at least the media in the West, really has gone the full bonkers.
It's grotesque to obscure the extent of misogyny that exists by cooperating with the pretence of violent men in cases like this. It's an insult to the murdered victims.
A man has committed those murders. A man.
Up is not down. Mutton is not lamb. Russia's war in Ukraine started with an invasion. And the brutal serial murderer of women in that article is a man - no matter what doublethink he might want to impose on others.
It makes sense to immediately start identifying as a woman if you get arrested for a serious crime. Women get far smaller prison sentences for the same crime, and they are also hosted in better conditions.
And with women, always a plus when murdering and dismembering women is a big part of your life
Lawrence Freedman @LawDavF · 3h At some point it is going to occur to Moldova and Georgia that if the Russian army continues on its current self- destructive path some currently frozen conflicts might get unfrozen.
Fast tracking Moldova into NATO seems to me to be an obvious move. Along with Sweden and Finland. Georgia is more problematic given their geographic location although they do share a border with a NATO country.
Can't Moldova just united with Romania for immediate entry into the EU and NATO?
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
Right you want to restart this I can go on all evening and all night now if needed.
None of that changes whatsoever my point that Thatcher was prepared to fight to retake the Falklands as Argentina did not have nuclear weapons unlike us and had a far weaker military like us. Hence we won the war and she would have continued to fight the war no matter what the cost.
Sending a no fly zone into Ukraine against a Russia armed with nuclear weapons is however a totally different ball game
Biden has openly told the world tonight he and the allies are arming Ukraine with sophisticated equipment immediately and taking supplies from stock to ensure Ukraine is able to attack Russian army in Ukraine.
The weapons included those that Ukraine can enact as a de facto no fly zone
Seems to me this open defiance of Putin and challenging him directly
Those little Switchblade sacrificial drone/missiles would seem to be exactly what is needed for this next phase of the conflict. Fit in a rucksack and simple to operate.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
Right you want to restart this I can go on all evening and all night now if needed.
None of that changes whatsoever my point that Thatcher was prepared to fight to retake the Falklands as Argentina did not have nuclear weapons unlike us and had a far weaker military like us. Hence we won the war and she would have continued to fight the war no matter what the cost.
Sending a no fly zone into Ukraine against a Russia armed with nuclear weapons is however a totally different ball game
Even had all our carriers been sunk and most of our destroyers and frigates been sunk (which they weren't and was highly unlikely) we could still have placed submarines armed with nuclear weapons off the coast off Argentina and refused to remove them until the Argentines withdrew
I remember suggesting that to my father at the time. I will never forget the look of love and sympathy as he said to me, his adored six year old son “don’t worry my boy, one day you will grow up and with age will come wisdom”.
It was what Kruschev did in Cuba, only the Argentines unlike JFK's US would not have had any nuclear weapons to respond with
Krushchev pulled missiles out of Cuba only because JFK pulled missiles out of Turkey, a quid pro quo nobody really remembers these days.
Yes but Argentina had no missiles to do such a quid pro quo
Lawrence Freedman @LawDavF · 3h At some point it is going to occur to Moldova and Georgia that if the Russian army continues on its current self- destructive path some currently frozen conflicts might get unfrozen.
Fast tracking Moldova into NATO seems to me to be an obvious move. Along with Sweden and Finland. Georgia is more problematic given their geographic location although they do share a border with a NATO country.
Can't Moldova just united with Romania for immediate entry into the EU and NATO?
Lawrence Freedman @LawDavF · 3h At some point it is going to occur to Moldova and Georgia that if the Russian army continues on its current self- destructive path some currently frozen conflicts might get unfrozen.
Fast tracking Moldova into NATO seems to me to be an obvious move. Along with Sweden and Finland. Georgia is more problematic given their geographic location although they do share a border with a NATO country.
However that runs the risk of Putin invading Moldova too, maybe even Finland, if he gets wind of such a plan to fast track them into NATO
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
Yes, we need to be serious. "Humiliating" Putin is stupid, as long as he remains in charge and as long as he has nukes.
Don't corner the rat. Give him an exit. It would be nice if we could eliminate him from global politics, at some point and in some way, but right now the world just needs to step back from the abyss, and end the war. Then we re-arm and wait, and hope that Russia mends itself
We don't need to punish Russia further. It is already quite humbled and the sanctions have already done serious longterm damage
What is important is that Ukraine is safer after 15 years of Russian recovery than it was in 2014. That means EU membership, no Russian Crimea and security guarantees from the West.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
Right you want to restart this I can go on all evening and all night now if needed.
None of that changes whatsoever my point that Thatcher was prepared to fight to retake the Falklands as Argentina did not have nuclear weapons unlike us and had a far weaker military like us. Hence we won the war and she would have continued to fight the war no matter what the cost.
Sending a no fly zone into Ukraine against a Russia armed with nuclear weapons is however a totally different ball game
Even had all our carriers been sunk and most of our destroyers and frigates been sunk (which they weren't and was highly unlikely) we could still have placed submarines armed with nuclear weapons off the coast off Argentina and refused to remove them until the Argentines withdrew
Nuclear blackmail? Yes, good strategy. I'm sure no other countries would have objected.
Like Russia now we had a veto on the UN Security Council
This is a dangerously unhinged tyrant, talking like Late Stage Hitler, with a weird sigh in the middle. We need to approach with extreme caution
"I have translated and added subtitles to the latest video speech by Vladimir Putin from two hours ago. Please don’t let it go in vain - I want everyone to see what a speech of true fascism looks like.
No further comment needed, it’s all here, in his speech"
Lawrence Freedman @LawDavF · 3h At some point it is going to occur to Moldova and Georgia that if the Russian army continues on its current self- destructive path some currently frozen conflicts might get unfrozen.
Fast tracking Moldova into NATO seems to me to be an obvious move. Along with Sweden and Finland. Georgia is more problematic given their geographic location although they do share a border with a NATO country.
However that runs the risk of Putin invading Moldova too, maybe even Finland, if he gets wind of such a plan to fast track them into NATO
Putin's supply lines struggle to get to Kyiv. He won't be able to wage war against Moldova or Finland.
Lawrence Freedman @LawDavF · 3h At some point it is going to occur to Moldova and Georgia that if the Russian army continues on its current self- destructive path some currently frozen conflicts might get unfrozen.
Fast tracking Moldova into NATO seems to me to be an obvious move. Along with Sweden and Finland. Georgia is more problematic given their geographic location although they do share a border with a NATO country.
Can't Moldova just united with Romania for immediate entry into the EU and NATO?
Do they want to?
Support for it has been ramping up over the last couple of years and I believe offending Russia is the main reason for opposition.
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
Yes, we need to be serious. "Humiliating" Putin is stupid, as long as he remains in charge and as long as he has nukes.
Don't corner the rat. Give him an exit. It would be nice if we could eliminate him from global politics, at some point and in some way, but right now the world just needs to step back from the abyss, and end the war. Then we re-arm and wait, and hope that Russia mends itself
We don't need to punish Russia further. It is already quite humbled and the sanctions have already done serious longterm damage
Why do we need to re-arm given that Russia has proven incapable of pulling off even an invasion of its much weaker neighbour?
Lawrence Freedman @LawDavF · 3h At some point it is going to occur to Moldova and Georgia that if the Russian army continues on its current self- destructive path some currently frozen conflicts might get unfrozen.
Fast tracking Moldova into NATO seems to me to be an obvious move. Along with Sweden and Finland. Georgia is more problematic given their geographic location although they do share a border with a NATO country.
Can't Moldova just united with Romania for immediate entry into the EU and NATO?
Even if they wanted that, it would still leave the question of Transnistria. Perhaps as part of a deal with Russia it could be annexed by Ukraine.
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
You’re right.
The defenestration of Putin is not a sensible goal because it cannot guaranteed.
However the withdrawal of Russia, and some form of protection from future aggressions, must be.
We could invite him to talks and make sure he is standing next to an open window. Better not have them in Prague though, as he may get suspicious
He wouldn’t worry about being defenestrated in Prague as on historical precedent he would be fine as none of the intended victims died as they landed on piles of garbage (I think).
I’m thinking Singapore, by the pool in the Marina Bay.
The First Defenestration was more deadly. As was Jan Masaryk's (assuming he was murdered by the Russians).
Lawrence Freedman @LawDavF · 3h At some point it is going to occur to Moldova and Georgia that if the Russian army continues on its current self- destructive path some currently frozen conflicts might get unfrozen.
Fast tracking Moldova into NATO seems to me to be an obvious move. Along with Sweden and Finland. Georgia is more problematic given their geographic location although they do share a border with a NATO country.
However that runs the risk of Putin invading Moldova too, maybe even Finland, if he gets wind of such a plan to fast track them into NATO
Putin's supply lines struggle to get to Kyiv. He won't be able to wage war against Moldova or Finland.
Moldova is less than 10% the size of Ukraine, even if he made the same progress there as he has so far in Ukraine, that would see pretty much all of Moldova fall to the Russians
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
Yes, we need to be serious. "Humiliating" Putin is stupid, as long as he remains in charge and as long as he has nukes.
Don't corner the rat. Give him an exit. It would be nice if we could eliminate him from global politics, at some point and in some way, but right now the world just needs to step back from the abyss, and end the war. Then we re-arm and wait, and hope that Russia mends itself
We don't need to punish Russia further. It is already quite humbled and the sanctions have already done serious longterm damage
What is important is that Ukraine is safer after 15 years of Russian recovery than it was in 2014. That means EU membership, no Russian Crimea and security guarantees from the West.
Crimea is lost, I suspect. Certainly for the moment
As long as this nutter Putin is in charge we have to be realistic. Wrenching away Crimea, by force, means total war - and there is no way Russia will yield it peacefully
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
Yes, we need to be serious. "Humiliating" Putin is stupid, as long as he remains in charge and as long as he has nukes.
Don't corner the rat. Give him an exit. It would be nice if we could eliminate him from global politics, at some point and in some way, but right now the world just needs to step back from the abyss, and end the war. Then we re-arm and wait, and hope that Russia mends itself
We don't need to punish Russia further. It is already quite humbled and the sanctions have already done serious longterm damage
Why do we need to re-arm given that Russia has proven incapable of pulling off even an invasion of its much weaker neighbour?
Unless Russia disappears, it will learn lessons from the conflict and pose a more serious threat in the future.
Lawrence Freedman @LawDavF · 3h At some point it is going to occur to Moldova and Georgia that if the Russian army continues on its current self- destructive path some currently frozen conflicts might get unfrozen.
Fast tracking Moldova into NATO seems to me to be an obvious move. Along with Sweden and Finland. Georgia is more problematic given their geographic location although they do share a border with a NATO country.
However that runs the risk of Putin invading Moldova too, maybe even Finland, if he gets wind of such a plan to fast track them into NATO
Putin's supply lines struggle to get to Kyiv. He won't be able to wage war against Moldova or Finland.
Moldova is less than 10% the size of Ukraine, even if he made the same progress there as he has so far in Ukraine, that would see pretty much all of Moldova fall to the Russians
I am wondering if they might look for a quick unification with Romania. Transdnistria is a problem, though.
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
Yes, we need to be serious. "Humiliating" Putin is stupid, as long as he remains in charge and as long as he has nukes.
Don't corner the rat. Give him an exit. It would be nice if we could eliminate him from global politics, at some point and in some way, but right now the world just needs to step back from the abyss, and end the war. Then we re-arm and wait, and hope that Russia mends itself
We don't need to punish Russia further. It is already quite humbled and the sanctions have already done serious longterm damage
Why do we need to re-arm given that Russia has proven incapable of pulling off even an invasion of its much weaker neighbour?
Covid is addling your brain. Earlier today you said you still preferred Corbyn to Boris, then you expressed support for Stop The War, now you ask why we need to re-arm
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
Yes, we need to be serious. "Humiliating" Putin is stupid, as long as he remains in charge and as long as he has nukes.
Don't corner the rat. Give him an exit. It would be nice if we could eliminate him from global politics, at some point and in some way, but right now the world just needs to step back from the abyss, and end the war. Then we re-arm and wait, and hope that Russia mends itself
We don't need to punish Russia further. It is already quite humbled and the sanctions have already done serious longterm damage
Why do we need to re-arm given that Russia has proven incapable of pulling off even an invasion of its much weaker neighbour?
Because contrary to what some might think, they are not stupid. They will look at this debacle and learn. They have already been learning - as shown by the short range ballistic missiles which are proving so difficult to shoot down by anti-missile systems because of decoys. Even under a new and more benign leader - if that could ever happen - they will still look at how things went wrong and try to put them right.
We made a massive mistake talking in terms of a peace dividend after the fall of the Iron Curtain. It would be wise to learn those lessons because we can be sure the Russians will.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
Right you want to restart this I can go on all evening and all night now if needed.
None of that changes whatsoever my point that Thatcher was prepared to fight to retake the Falklands as Argentina did not have nuclear weapons unlike us and had a far weaker military like us. Hence we won the war and she would have continued to fight the war no matter what the cost.
Sending a no fly zone into Ukraine against a Russia armed with nuclear weapons is however a totally different ball game
Even had all our carriers been sunk and most of our destroyers and frigates been sunk (which they weren't and was highly unlikely) we could still have placed submarines armed with nuclear weapons off the coast off Argentina and refused to remove them until the Argentines withdrew
Nuclear blackmail? Yes, good strategy. I'm sure no other countries would have objected.
Like Russia now we had a veto on the UN Security Council
Hmmm. You are suggesting we should be using Russia as a role model for how a country should behave?
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
You’re right.
The defenestration of Putin is not a sensible goal because it cannot guaranteed.
However the withdrawal of Russia, and some form of protection from future aggressions, must be.
We could invite him to talks and make sure he is standing next to an open window. Better not have them in Prague though, as he may get suspicious
He wouldn’t worry about being defenestrated in Prague as on historical precedent he would be fine as none of the intended victims died as they landed on piles of garbage (I think).
I’m thinking Singapore, by the pool in the Marina Bay.
The First Defenestration was more deadly. As was Jan Masaryk's (assuming he was murdered by the Russians).
On a pissup in Prague (which I didn't actually go on as I had only just met up with the group) a friend of mine threatened to throw another of my friends through a plate glass shop window which would have been the refenestration of Prague.
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
Both vindictive and ineffective. Muscovite malcontents lack the power to take out Putin either by ballot or bullet. And in 20s Germany the effect of humiliation was to make people get behind the leader. The danger is of reinforcing the belief in Putin that a majority of Russians currently have
Yes, we need to be serious. "Humiliating" Putin is stupid, as long as he remains in charge and as long as he has nukes.
Don't corner the rat. Give him an exit. It would be nice if we could eliminate him from global politics, at some point and in some way, but right now the world just needs to step back from the abyss, and end the war. Then we re-arm and wait, and hope that Russia mends itself
We don't need to punish Russia further. It is already quite humbled and the sanctions have already done serious longterm damage
What is important is that Ukraine is safer after 15 years of Russian recovery than it was in 2014. That means EU membership, no Russian Crimea and security guarantees from the West.
Crimea is lost, I suspect. Certainly for the moment
As long as this nutter Putin is in charge we have to be realistic. Wrenching away Crimea, by force, means total war - and there is no way Russia will yield it peacefully
Independent Crimea is the clear answer. Neutral and demilitarized.
"I understand times are hard, but doesn't the President of the #Ukraine own a suit? I don't have much respect for current members of the U.S. Congress either, but I still wouldn't address them wearing a t-shirt. I wouldn't want to disrespect the institution or the Unites States."
Lawrence Freedman @LawDavF · 3h At some point it is going to occur to Moldova and Georgia that if the Russian army continues on its current self- destructive path some currently frozen conflicts might get unfrozen.
Fast tracking Moldova into NATO seems to me to be an obvious move. Along with Sweden and Finland. Georgia is more problematic given their geographic location although they do share a border with a NATO country.
However that runs the risk of Putin invading Moldova too, maybe even Finland, if he gets wind of such a plan to fast track them into NATO
Putin's supply lines struggle to get to Kyiv. He won't be able to wage war against Moldova or Finland.
Moldova is less than 10% the size of Ukraine, even if he made the same progress there as he has so far in Ukraine, that would see pretty much all of Moldova fall to the Russians
I am wondering if they might look for a quick unification with Romania. Transdnistria is a problem, though.
Apart from the bits of the right-hand bank of the Dniester de facto controlled by Transnistria, it was never Romanian, apart from the occupation during WW2.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
Right you want to restart this I can go on all evening and all night now if needed.
None of that changes whatsoever my point that Thatcher was prepared to fight to retake the Falklands as Argentina did not have nuclear weapons unlike us and had a far weaker military like us. Hence we won the war and she would have continued to fight the war no matter what the cost.
Sending a no fly zone into Ukraine against a Russia armed with nuclear weapons is however a totally different ball game
Biden has openly told the world tonight he and the allies are arming Ukraine with sophisticated equipment immediately and taking supplies from stock to ensure Ukraine is able to attack Russian army in Ukraine.
The weapons included those that Ukraine can enact as a de facto no fly zone
Seems to me this open defiance of Putin and challenging him directly
Those little Switchblade sacrificial drone/missiles would seem to be exactly what is needed for this next phase of the conflict. Fit in a rucksack and simple to operate.
Confirmed: The US is sending 100 Switchblade armed drones to Ukraine. The loitering munition has been used by US special operations forces for several years, and is good at penetrating armor
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
Right you want to restart this I can go on all evening and all night now if needed.
None of that changes whatsoever my point that Thatcher was prepared to fight to retake the Falklands as Argentina did not have nuclear weapons unlike us and had a far weaker military like us. Hence we won the war and she would have continued to fight the war no matter what the cost.
Sending a no fly zone into Ukraine against a Russia armed with nuclear weapons is however a totally different ball game
Even had all our carriers been sunk and most of our destroyers and frigates been sunk (which they weren't and was highly unlikely) we could still have placed submarines armed with nuclear weapons off the coast off Argentina and refused to remove them until the Argentines withdrew
Again showing your ignorance. Re our frigates and destroyers over 50% were hit. As per my previous reference frome some who actually knew what he was talking about if just 6 of the 13 bombs that failed to explode had done so we would have lost. So not highly unlikely at all, but nearly happened. Bizarrely we were lucky that the very brave Argentine Hawk pilots got too low. As it was 4 did sink.
Comments
One hopes that every nation on the planet, which has used Sinovac (and a lot have) is now rapidly boostering with something that actually works
He seems to have made a speech saying people who can't get by without a villa in France and oysters and so on are basically not Russian and exist in their heads "somewhere else".
Admissions *not* accelerating fast is an early indicator on this.
It was a direct challenge to Putin and seems the allies are becoming more emboldened
It sticks in the craw to let a bully like Russia away with its annexations. And it sets a bad precedent.
On the other hand, I’m extremely keen to avoid further bloodshed and to allow Ukraine to get on with much-needed economic reconstruction.
Probably from a pure realpolitik perspective we in the West would want to continue to see Russia drained, but it comes at the price of Ukrainian lives.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-60742364
The world, or at least the media in the West, really has gone the full bonkers.
Don't corner the rat. Give him an exit. It would be nice if we could eliminate him from global politics, at some point and in some way, but right now the world just needs to step back from the abyss, and end the war. Then we re-arm and wait, and hope that Russia mends itself
We don't need to punish Russia further. It is already quite humbled and the sanctions have already done serious longterm damage
The defenestration of Putin is not a sensible goal because it cannot guaranteed.
However the withdrawal of Russia, and some form of protection from future aggressions, must be.
There is a lovely pub just outside Mold called the Glasfryn. Or at least there was I 2008.
Судя по перехватам разговоров российских военных – массовые бунты и отказы воевать против Украины. Целыми батальонами идут в отказ. Путин теряет власть даже у военных.
Judging by the intercepts of Russian military conversations, there are mass riots and refusals to fight against Ukraine. Whole battalions go into denial. Putin is losing power even among the military.
https://twitter.com/n_ma_pag/status/1504143823189987344?s=20&t=T4fLhweVijdKyHKCdxrGpw
Macron (EC-RE): 30% (-0.5)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 19.5% (+1)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 13.5% (+1)
Zemmour (REC-NI): 11% (-1.5)
Pécresse (LR-EPP): 10.5%
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1504097423593021441?s=20&t=7mrGv-GmlMrNpOJN65Gu5A
Runoff
Macron (EC-RE): 58%
Le Pen (RN-ID): 42%
Macron (EC-RE): 64% (-3)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 36% (+3)
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1504104729760182280?s=20&t=7mrGv-GmlMrNpOJN65Gu5A
Narp.
Lawrence Freedman
@LawDavF
·
3h
At some point it is going to occur to Moldova and Georgia that if the Russian army continues on its current self- destructive path some currently frozen conflicts might get unfrozen.
https://twitter.com/LawDavF
1917 redux.
So if these rumours are true, and there are several straws in the wind - from the alleged mutinies to the resigning TV journalists - then this is still a highly perilous global moment
Imagine if Belarus were to suffer an unfortunate uprising, and Georgia were to decide now is the right time to take back Abkhazia.
The weapons included those that Ukraine can enact as a de facto no fly zone
Seems to me this open defiance of Putin and challenging him directly
I’m thinking Singapore, by the pool in the Marina Bay.
I was struck by how little reaction the story about what was effectively sexual assault of a schoolgirl by Met police, with the reported acquiescence of her school, got here.
Though the fact that we’re teetering, and possibly edging away from the brink of armageddon does provide something of a distraction, it’s still distinctly uncomfortable.
Few governments make the kind of mistake that Putin has and survive. The West has been threatened with nuclear anhillation. If there is any way to ensure the removal of the tyrant as quickly as possible, then it should be taken now. Leaving him in place is simply too dangerous.
“ More now from the besieged port city of Mariupol – the city's deputy mayor has told the BBC that Russian forces have bombed a theatre where hundreds of civilians were sheltering.
Serhiy Orlov said between 1,000 and 1,200 people were in the building. The number of casualties was still unknown, he said. The BBC could not independently verify the information...”
Moreover, at the moment the imperatives are: stop the war in Ukraine and back away from nuclear doomsday
Hopefully Russia becomes a pinpoint state with a monument to putin that the world can piss against.
A man has committed those murders. A man.
Up is not down. Mutton is not lamb. Russia's war in Ukraine started with an invasion. And the brutal serial murderer of women in that article is a man - no matter what doublethink he might want to impose on others.
Can you never admit you were wrong? Because boy were you spectacularly wrong.
Kennedy's plan with nukes was to bin all the weird expedients/oddities that had come out of the 50s - Regulus, Jupiter, nuclear powered planes, Project Pluto.....
And replace them with Minutemen and Polaris. The original plan was 10,000 Minutemen missiles...
Brighter readers will have noted that the value of Cummings's claims is that they are about a conversation with - allegedly - multiple identifiable witnesses. They are verifiable.
"I have translated and added subtitles to the latest video speech by Vladimir Putin from two hours ago. Please don’t let it go in vain - I want everyone to see what a speech of true fascism looks like.
No further comment needed, it’s all here, in his speech"
https://twitter.com/just_whatever/status/1504144895501557762?s=20&t=T4fLhweVijdKyHKCdxrGpw
Indeed, if they got rid of Putin and his immediate entourage - particularly if he ended up somehow in a court either in Russia or at the Hague - I would go so far as to completely disassociate Russia as a state from his actions. Obviously it would not be true as such but it would be worth turning a blind eye to the facts in favour of politics. It would show that we were not being malicious regarding the normal Russian people - that was the mistake in 1919 with Germany. Make it clear that Dictators are held responsible for their actions both internally and externally.
So much Russian money has been sequestered away by Putin and his senior people along with the Oligarchs that we could use the proceeds of crime laws to strip it from them, use some to help rebuild Ukraine and make a gesture of giving some back to a democratic Russian Government.
Again. I am talking pipe dreams unfortunately but if I ruled the world that would be the approach I took.
And banning Norwegian cooking. Just because.
https://youtu.be/4S7QARslq74
As long as this nutter Putin is in charge we have to be realistic. Wrenching away Crimea, by force, means total war - and there is no way Russia will yield it peacefully
Get well soon!
We made a massive mistake talking in terms of a peace dividend after the fall of the Iron Curtain. It would be wise to learn those lessons because we can be sure the Russians will.
"I understand times are hard, but doesn't the President of the #Ukraine own a suit? I don't have much respect for current members of the U.S. Congress either, but I still wouldn't address them wearing a t-shirt. I wouldn't want to disrespect the institution or the Unites States."
https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1504082706598146058?s=20&t=T4fLhweVijdKyHKCdxrGpw
Confirmed: The US is sending 100 Switchblade armed drones to Ukraine. The loitering munition has been used by US special operations forces for several years, and is good at penetrating armor