Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
There are some kooks in STW but it's not a sign of lunacy to want to be part of a global peace movement. It's very much needed, I'd say. More than ever.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
Mold always grows back
Mold is a small village in North Wales, which demands you apologise for this comparison.
Mould is what appears on your overripe melons.
Unless you an American, but in matters of English spelling Americans are always wrong.
As it happens, I think Ukraine might be waiting a long time for EU accession.
I don’t rule it out, in fact I suspect it will happen at some stage, but the accession of a country that
- is very poor - is very populous - has a massive corruption problem - has a totally unreformed agricultural sector - has a recent history of conflict with Russia
Changes the EU balance substantially.
But here’s an opportunity for the UK. We could offer something to Ukraine which is then mimicked by the EU, creating the “outer ring” along with EFTA.
For that option to have any long-term appeal, it would have to be more than simply an "outer ring" but instead be based on a different model.
Yes, I don’t like the term outer ring. I just couldn’t think of a better description.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
What do the US Navy or a Marshall of the Royal Air Force know when put up against the intellectual might of a Parish Councillor from Epping who's never seen a rifle or looked at any war in history?
But, that's true of all military campaigns. They'd all fail, if everything that could go wrong did go wrong.
The main thrust of this is that it would have taken very little of the array of things that went wrong for the Argentinians not going wrong (for example, if the officers piloting the aircraft had spoken to the enlisted men setting the bomb fuzes) for things to have got fatally sticky for us.
Achieving a contested landing against a prepared enemy is really hard.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
There are some kooks in STW but it's not a sign of lunacy to want to be part of a global peace movement. It's very much needed, I'd say. More than ever.
They should go and demonstrate in Russia where it is most needed. Then they can move on to Saudi Arabia.
There is however a certain irony in the fact that destabilisation of electricity supplies by gradual detachment from the European Grid is one of the levers currently being used by Brussels to try and force Switzerland to do what the EuCo wants it to do.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
There are some kooks in STW but it's not a sign of lunacy to want to be part of a global peace movement. It's very much needed, I'd say. More than ever.
Saying you are for peace is very nice. Everyone *says* they are for peace.
Their actions and who their friends are speak volumes. They are Knuts.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
There are some kooks in STW but it's not a sign of lunacy to want to be part of a global peace movement. It's very much needed, I'd say. More than ever.
If this is true and this peace holds I will literally open champagne. We have come so close to global disaster
Ins'allah!!
I'd be torn between opening champagne/ESW with the relief that we all live to fight another day, and bitterly regretting the fact Putin remains at large. Until his death or final complete defeat Europe won't be safe.
Who knows if this peace will happen, who knows if the Russians will stick to it (and it's not just a feint etc), but if it is real and it does stick then I'd say this is a major step towards the End of Putin.
He's 69, and he's totally fucked his country's economy, for absolutely no gain at all. There will be a reckoning. His many rich friends will not be happy holidaying in Pyongyang for the rest of time
There will be a gain, though, I think. East Ukraine and Crimea recognized as part of Russia. West Ukraine independent but unaligned. No EU, no NATO. Isn't that where it's heading?
You mean the small separatist regions in the East? They are - it should be noted - tiny.
From the details leaked to the FT, EU membership appears to still be on the table. Whether the EU will want to accept - with the consequent massive financial obligations - Ukraine as a member is another question altogether.
I would hope that the West (and this would be a great opportunity for the EU to lead) will help with the rebuilding of the Ukraine. And I would expect that - absent regime change in Moscow - we will demand help from Russia in paying for it.
In the event Ukraine applying for membership, I would bet my house and my children against their being refused.
The question is how long the EU would string out the process. Ukraine has been refused candidate status for 17 years.
If the political will is there on both sides to truly change the country, and generous moneys provided to help them change, then it could be a quicker process than feared, but it's still clearly an arduous process they are not going to breeze through even if they genuinely work for it.
France in particular will be very ambivalent about Ukrainian membership. It will be a threat to their agricultural interests and mark the definitive end of their long-standing aspiration to negotiate an alternative security partnership with Russia.
France and Russia have a long history of friendship.
But Macron in particular has been pretty bruised by this, and has been well ahead of Germany and Italy (albeit behind the UK) in providing support to Ukraine.
So I suspect the "alternative security partnership" is dead, so long as as Macron and Putin remain heads of their respective governments.
Simply, Russia is the big, bad enemy of NATO again.
(Also worth remembering that France's defence industry is a massive winner from a new cold war.)
What I don't understand is why a country like India buys all this military kit from Russia. Is it cheap or something?
The answer to your question is... it's not something.
I am hearing of a lot of people in extended family, friends of friends etc etc that have been hit this last two weeks. Definite exit wave happening as we come out of all lockdown regs.
The skies over central London have gone from queasy yellow to suitably apocalyptic grey-black, as the sheeting rain pours down
Hmm
There's sand all over the place - amazing.
Remnants of a sandstorm from the Sahara?
This is what I'm hearing. Sand has blown all the way from the Sahara to Hampstead. Absolutely remarkable state of affairs. You don't need God to find wonder in the world.
Its surprisingly common. Its also one way that minerals etc get to fertilise the oceans for instance.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
Mold always grows back
Mold is a small village in North Wales, which demands you apologise for this comparison.
Mould is what appears on your overripe melons.
Unless you an American, but in matters of English spelling Americans are always wrong.
Mold is a small village in North Wales .. Its great treasure (the Mold Cape) was stolen by an imperialist power and taken to London to be stored in the British Museum (of Looted Artefacts).
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
Mold always grows back
Mold is a small village in North Wales, which demands you apologise for this comparison.
Mould is what appears on your overripe melons.
Unless you an American, but in matters of English spelling Americans are always wrong.
I did some work on the ex-Mold junction turntable. There's a random factoid.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
What do the US Navy or a Marshall of the Royal Air Force know when put up against the intellectual might of a Parish Councillor from Epping who's never seen a rifle or looked at any war in history?
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
There are some kooks in STW but it's not a sign of lunacy to want to be part of a global peace movement. It's very much needed, I'd say. More than ever.
They should go and demonstrate in Russia where it is most needed. Then they can move on to Saudi Arabia.
Well Iraq wasn't that long ago. We aren't immune from warmongering. But, yes, there is a correlation between regimes that threaten peace and those where protest is forbidden. It takes bravery to stick your neck out in these places. That's not so much the case here. I sense that's your point.
Lord only knows how this came to be on Twitter, but it looks genuine. It's a video taken by a Russian officer from a vehicle at Kherson Airport assessing the damage from the recent Ukrainian counter-attack on the Russian forces there:
They're checking what equipment is still usable, basically saying "the helicopters are still fine" etc. Then specifically say "take this Kamaz (truck) and evacuate it, I'll meet you there."
Looks like very accurate targeting by the Ukrainians.
As it happens, I think Ukraine might be waiting a long time for EU accession.
I don’t rule it out, in fact I suspect it will happen at some stage, but the accession of a country that
- is very poor - is very populous - has a massive corruption problem - has a totally unreformed agricultural sector - has a recent history of conflict with Russia
Changes the EU balance substantially.
But here’s an opportunity for the UK. We could offer something to Ukraine which is then mimicked by the EU, creating the “outer ring” along with EFTA.
For that option to have any long-term appeal, it would have to be more than simply an "outer ring" but instead be based on a different model.
Yes, I don’t like the term outer ring. I just couldn’t think of a better description.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
Mold always grows back
Mold is a small village in North Wales, which demands you apologise for this comparison.
Mould is what appears on your overripe melons.
Unless you an American, but in matters of English spelling Americans are always wrong.
I did some work on the ex-Mold junction turntable. There's a random factoid.
I am hearing of a lot of people in extended family, friends of friends etc etc that have been hit this last two weeks. Definite exit wave happening as we come out of all lockdown regs.
Don't start on exit waves or @RochdalePioneers will get all shouty on you...
The skies over central London have gone from queasy yellow to suitably apocalyptic grey-black, as the sheeting rain pours down
Hmm
There's sand all over the place - amazing.
Remnants of a sandstorm from the Sahara?
This is what I'm hearing. Sand has blown all the way from the Sahara to Hampstead. Absolutely remarkable state of affairs. You don't need God to find wonder in the world.
Its surprisingly common. Its also one way that minerals etc get to fertilise the oceans for instance.
Beginning to sound like the mudfall in the Shellworld of Sursamen in the Banks novel.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
Mold always grows back
Mold is a small village in North Wales, which demands you apologise for this comparison.
Mould is what appears on your overripe melons.
Unless you an American, but in matters of English spelling Americans are always wrong.
Mold is a small village in North Wales .. Its great treasure (the Mold Cape) was stolen by an imperialist power and taken to London to be stored in the British Museum (of Looted Artefacts).
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
What do the US Navy or a Marshall of the Royal Air Force know when put up against the intellectual might of a Parish Councillor from Epping who's never seen a rifle or looked at any war in history?
I worry about Epping.
All political parties attract some odd people. I would hope the Epping Tories know exactly the situation.
Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, told the Financial Times that any deal would involve “the troops of the Russian Federation in any case leaving the territory of Ukraine” captured since the invasion began on February 24 — namely southern regions along the Azov and Black Seas, as well as territory to the east and north of Kyiv.
Ukraine would maintain its armed forces but would be obliged to stay outside military alliances such as Nato and refrain from hosting foreign military bases on its territory.
Which is precisely the wording of the changes in constitutional law following the Austrian State Treaty of 1955, which was promulgated to get Soviet troops off Austrian Territory.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
Mold always grows back
Mold is a small village in North Wales, which demands you apologise for this comparison.
Mould is what appears on your overripe melons.
Unless you an American, but in matters of English spelling Americans are always wrong.
I did some work on the ex-Mold junction turntable. There's a random factoid.
Used to go to Theatre Clwyd in Mold to see late night horror films when I was at College of Law in Chester.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
What do the US Navy or a Marshall of the Royal Air Force know when put up against the intellectual might of a Parish Councillor from Epping who's never seen a rifle or looked at any war in history?
I worry about Epping.
All political parties attract some odd people. I would hope the Epping Tories know exactly the situation.
I am hearing of a lot of people in extended family, friends of friends etc etc that have been hit this last two weeks. Definite exit wave happening as we come out of all lockdown regs.
Don't start on exit waves or @RochdalePioneers will get all shouty on you...
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
Mold always grows back
Mold is a small village in North Wales, which demands you apologise for this comparison.
Mould is what appears on your overripe melons.
Unless you an American, but in matters of English spelling Americans are always wrong.
Mold is a small village in North Wales .. Its great treasure (the Mold Cape) was stolen by an imperialist power and taken to London to be stored in the British Museum (of Looted Artefacts).
Mold’s quite big. County town of Flint.
My forefathers come from Mold way. If anyone asks, I say Holywell.
As it happens, I think Ukraine might be waiting a long time for EU accession.
I don’t rule it out, in fact I suspect it will happen at some stage, but the accession of a country that
- is very poor - is very populous - has a massive corruption problem - has a totally unreformed agricultural sector - has a recent history of conflict with Russia
Changes the EU balance substantially.
But here’s an opportunity for the UK. We could offer something to Ukraine which is then mimicked by the EU, creating the “outer ring” along with EFTA.
For that option to have any long-term appeal, it would have to be more than simply an "outer ring" but instead be based on a different model.
Yes, I don’t like the term outer ring. I just couldn’t think of a better description.
Perhaps PB geometricians can assist.
Are you thinking central Europe - France , Germany, etc as the arsehole with the UK/Ukraine/Norway, etc as the sphincter? Could be sold to the Redwall I'm thinking.
Cheers. Had like a severe cold plus headache plus no energy for 3 days but just starting to improve. Although I'll probably have a psychosomatic relapse now I've done the test and discovered I have it.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
There are some kooks in STW but it's not a sign of lunacy to want to be part of a global peace movement. It's very much needed, I'd say. More than ever.
Yeah right - how does that fit with pitching Isael into the Mediterranean?
@RobinBrooksIIF Something big is happening in global capital flows. China (pink) is seeing big capital outflows, while the rest of EM gets inflows. Never happened before on this scale and reflects asset managers looking at China in a new light after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
Mold always grows back
Mold is a small village in North Wales, which demands you apologise for this comparison.
Mould is what appears on your overripe melons.
Unless you an American, but in matters of English spelling Americans are always wrong.
Mold is a small village in North Wales .. Its great treasure (the Mold Cape) was stolen by an imperialist power and taken to London to be stored in the British Museum (of Looted Artefacts).
@RobinBrooksIIF Something big is happening in global capital flows. China (pink) is seeing big capital outflows, while the rest of EM gets inflows. Never happened before on this scale and reflects asset managers looking at China in a new light after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
What do the US Navy or a Marshall of the Royal Air Force know when put up against the intellectual might of a Parish Councillor from Epping who's never seen a rifle or looked at any war in history?
I worry about Epping.
All political parties attract some odd people. I would hope the Epping Tories know exactly the situation.
Maybe they need Jackie Weaver!
I was agent for a bunch of candidates once of which one was decidedly worrying. I voted for him for Borough (no chance of getting elected), but didn't (even though I was the agent) for parish just in case he squeezed through. He didn't.
Cheers. Had like a severe cold plus headache plus no energy for 3 days but just starting to improve. Although I'll probably have a psychosomatic relapse now I've done the test and discovered I have it.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
Mold always grows back
Mold is a small village in North Wales, which demands you apologise for this comparison.
Mould is what appears on your overripe melons.
Unless you an American, but in matters of English spelling Americans are always wrong.
Mold is a small village in North Wales .. Its great treasure (the Mold Cape) was stolen rescued by an imperialist powera friendly neighbour and taken to London to be REstored in the British Museum (of Looted Artefacts).
Cheers. Had like a severe cold plus headache plus no energy for 3 days but just starting to improve. Although I'll probably have a psychosomatic relapse now I've done the test and discovered I have it.
"a severe cold plus headache plus no energy for 3 days "
The fatigue is a notable feature of Covid. Like others I slept for 16-20 hours a day at one point
I am hearing of a lot of people in extended family, friends of friends etc etc that have been hit this last two weeks. Definite exit wave happening as we come out of all lockdown regs.
Don't start on exit waves or @RochdalePioneers will get all shouty on you...
It seems to correlate more with BA.2
Yes. So Scotland is expected to peak soon and may decline sharply, and probably England will too.
@RobinBrooksIIF Something big is happening in global capital flows. China (pink) is seeing big capital outflows, while the rest of EM gets inflows. Never happened before on this scale and reflects asset managers looking at China in a new light after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Shocking news from the Test: the West Indies have managed to bowl the full 30 overs in the morning session.
And somehow England are only one down...
Thanks for reminding me that cricket is going on in the West indies at the moment. This tour seems to have had less publicity than most. Maybe because Anderson and Broad aren't playing.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
What do the US Navy or a Marshall of the Royal Air Force know when put up against the intellectual might of a Parish Councillor from Epping who's never seen a rifle or looked at any war in history?
But, that's true of all military campaigns. They'd all fail, if everything that could go wrong did go wrong.
The main thrust of this is that it would have taken very little of the array of things that went wrong for the Argentinians not going wrong (for example, if the officers piloting the aircraft had spoken to the enlisted men setting the bomb fuzes) for things to have got fatally sticky for us.
Achieving a contested landing against a prepared enemy is really hard.
Chap who led our tour round Orford Ness was very forthcoming about the Vulcan raid. I can't remember the actual details but it was something like 8 planes left the UK, 6 had to turn back at Ascension, the remaining two managed to plant four sticks of bombs across the airfield, of which one actually made a hole in the tarmac, which the Argies patched up overnight. Rejoice.
Cheers. Had like a severe cold plus headache plus no energy for 3 days but just starting to improve. Although I'll probably have a psychosomatic relapse now I've done the test and discovered I have it.
Nah - the worst is over for you now.
I've not had covid yet, despite it being all round. I have had a stinky cold last week that left a lingering productive cough, but thats on its way out.
You do start to wonder when your turn is though...
Cheers. Had like a severe cold plus headache plus no energy for 3 days but just starting to improve. Although I'll probably have a psychosomatic relapse now I've done the test and discovered I have it.
Nah - the worst is over for you now.
I've not had covid yet, despite it being all round. I have had a stinky cold last week that left a lingering productive cough, but thats on its way out.
You do start to wonder when your turn is though...
I read a guesstimate somewhere that 90% of Brits have had Covid?
If that is the case, anyone who hasn't had it yet is likely one of the people who are naturally resistant, and they will never get it. So you might be truly lucky
The skies over central London have gone from queasy yellow to suitably apocalyptic grey-black, as the sheeting rain pours down
Hmm
There's sand all over the place - amazing.
Remnants of a sandstorm from the Sahara?
This is what I'm hearing. Sand has blown all the way from the Sahara to Hampstead. Absolutely remarkable state of affairs. You don't need God to find wonder in the world.
Lived through one of those as a kid in Cyprus. About ½" of brown red sand covering over absolutely everything.
It's been fun watching it draw close to the UK. It was forecast pretty accurately several days ago and the subject to excited chatter on met Twitter and the weather forums, but because of the saturation coverage of Ukraine nobody outside the weather nerd community really noticed until it was upon us. Even today I was pointing out the yellow colour of the air to people in the office and getting a surprised "oh yes, I thought it looked a bit odd out there".
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
What do the US Navy or a Marshall of the Royal Air Force know when put up against the intellectual might of a Parish Councillor from Epping who's never seen a rifle or looked at any war in history?
But, that's true of all military campaigns. They'd all fail, if everything that could go wrong did go wrong.
The main thrust of this is that it would have taken very little of the array of things that went wrong for the Argentinians not going wrong (for example, if the officers piloting the aircraft had spoken to the enlisted men setting the bomb fuzes) for things to have got fatally sticky for us.
Achieving a contested landing against a prepared enemy is really hard.
Chap who led our tour round Orford Ness was very forthcoming about the Vulcan raid. I can't remember the actual details but it was something like 8 planes left the UK, 6 had to turn back at Ascension, the remaining two managed to plant four sticks of bombs across the airfield, of which one actually made a hole in the tarmac, which the Argies patched up overnight. Rejoice.
That was why, of course, we went to all the trouble we did to mislead the enemy in both Normandy and Sicily.
@Podolyak_M Briefly. FT published a draft, which represents the requesting position of the Russian side. Nothing more. The 🇺🇦 side has its own positions. The only thing we confirm at this stage is a ceasefire, withdrawal of Russian troops and security guarantees from a number of countries
- Cases - UP. R is crawling up a bit. Currently 1.35 or so. - In hospital - UP - MV Beds - Flat(ish) - Admissions - UP. R has stabilised at 1.1 - Deaths - DOWN. Falling very slowly now.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
There are some kooks in STW but it's not a sign of lunacy to want to be part of a global peace movement. It's very much needed, I'd say. More than ever.
They should go and demonstrate in Russia where it is most needed. Then they can move on to Saudi Arabia.
Well Iraq wasn't that long ago. We aren't immune from warmongering. But, yes, there is a correlation between regimes that threaten peace and those where protest is forbidden. It takes bravery to stick your neck out in these places. That's not so much the case here. I sense that's your point.
Yes. They certainly did have cause to demonstrate re: Iraq, whatever the reason (or purported reason) we went there.
Otherwise, I'm not sure what point they are trying to make. It mostly seems to be that everything is our fault.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
What do the US Navy or a Marshall of the Royal Air Force know when put up against the intellectual might of a Parish Councillor from Epping who's never seen a rifle or looked at any war in history?
But, that's true of all military campaigns. They'd all fail, if everything that could go wrong did go wrong.
The main thrust of this is that it would have taken very little of the array of things that went wrong for the Argentinians not going wrong (for example, if the officers piloting the aircraft had spoken to the enlisted men setting the bomb fuzes) for things to have got fatally sticky for us.
Achieving a contested landing against a prepared enemy is really hard.
Chap who led our tour round Orford Ness was very forthcoming about the Vulcan raid. I can't remember the actual details but it was something like 8 planes left the UK, 6 had to turn back at Ascension, the remaining two managed to plant four sticks of bombs across the airfield, of which one actually made a hole in the tarmac, which the Argies patched up overnight. Rejoice.
That was why, of course, we went to all the trouble we did to mislead the enemy in both Normandy and Sicily.
The biggest effect of the Vulcan raid was to convince the Junta that a raid on the mainland was next. So they held back a number of aircraft to defend the mainland.
@RobinBrooksIIF Something big is happening in global capital flows. China (pink) is seeing big capital outflows, while the rest of EM gets inflows. Never happened before on this scale and reflects asset managers looking at China in a new light after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
What do the US Navy or a Marshall of the Royal Air Force know when put up against the intellectual might of a Parish Councillor from Epping who's never seen a rifle or looked at any war in history?
But, that's true of all military campaigns. They'd all fail, if everything that could go wrong did go wrong.
The main thrust of this is that it would have taken very little of the array of things that went wrong for the Argentinians not going wrong (for example, if the officers piloting the aircraft had spoken to the enlisted men setting the bomb fuzes) for things to have got fatally sticky for us.
Achieving a contested landing against a prepared enemy is really hard.
Chap who led our tour round Orford Ness was very forthcoming about the Vulcan raid. I can't remember the actual details but it was something like 8 planes left the UK, 6 had to turn back at Ascension, the remaining two managed to plant four sticks of bombs across the airfield, of which one actually made a hole in the tarmac, which the Argies patched up overnight. Rejoice.
It was a hell of a lot more complicated than that. There was an excellent documentary on it. Refuelling aircraft refueling refuelling aircraft, etc, etc. Someone put a diagram of it up here earlier today I think. It was a huge operation for a small, but possibly important effect. Bit like the Doolittle raid I guess.
- Cases - UP. R is crawling up a bit. Currently 1.35 or so. - In hospital - UP - MV Beds - Flat(ish) - Admissions - UP. R has stabilised at 1.1 - Deaths - DOWN. Falling very slowly now.
Is that a quote and graphic from Real Housewives Of Jahalavakalinda? 🤔
Cheers. Had like a severe cold plus headache plus no energy for 3 days but just starting to improve. Although I'll probably have a psychosomatic relapse now I've done the test and discovered I have it.
Nah - the worst is over for you now.
I've not had covid yet, despite it being all round. I have had a stinky cold last week that left a lingering productive cough, but thats on its way out.
You do start to wonder when your turn is though...
I read a guesstimate somewhere that 90% of Brits have had Covid?
If that is the case, anyone who hasn't had it yet is likely one of the people who are naturally resistant, and they will never get it. So you might be truly lucky
I haven't (knowingly) had it, despite being very gregarious with my pubbing and socialising activities even during the omicron panic at Christmas. Nor has anyone in my household.
But then again I have only ever taken three tests so I might well have had it asymptomatically at some stage I suppose.
No Nato membership or foreign military bases. That seems a decent offer but could Putin really sell that as a win?
Presumably they are yielding Crimea forever, and maybe the separatist bits in the East?
Which is not unjustifiable. Crimea is more "Russian" than "Ukrainian"
You really, really don't want to be Russian in the future. That future gets worse with every day.
It is tragic. The videos of Russian tanks getting obliterated are gratifying, in one way - it is good to see a brutal invader defeated - but they are also intensely sad. Young men dying in agony for the lunatic vanity of a sick old man. And dying in their thousands
What a rancid state of affairs. Imagine what it must feel like now, to be a Russian conscript in Kherson. You are fighting a criminal fascist war of invasion against a nation that rightly hates you, meanwhile your dictator is probably about to sue for peace, so your death, when and if it arrives, will be as futile as it is painful
No Nato membership or foreign military bases. That seems a decent offer but could Putin really sell that as a win?
Presumably they are yielding Crimea forever, and maybe the separatist bits in the East?
Which is not unjustifiable. Crimea is more "Russian" than "Ukrainian"
From my perspective it certainly is unjustifiable. Crimea has been Ukrainian since 1954. It voted to leave the Soviet Union. Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons in return for a commitment by the US/UK/Russia to respect its territorial integrity. It's territory has been taken by force and its citizens held hostage by a terrorist state. A referendum on its future could be held with proper international oversight.
Now maybe 'realism' suggests you sometimes have to appease terror and violence. But that's what it would be.
Re FT report on negotiations, from Zelensky's office
Михайло Подоляк @Podolyak_M Briefly. FT published a draft, which represents the requesting position of the Russian side. Nothing more. The 🇺🇦 side has its own positions. The only thing we confirm at this stage is a ceasefire, withdrawal of Russian troops and security guarantees from a number of countries https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1504136862277017607
No Nato membership or foreign military bases. That seems a decent offer but could Putin really sell that as a win?
Presumably they are yielding Crimea forever, and maybe the separatist bits in the East?
Which is not unjustifiable. Crimea is more "Russian" than "Ukrainian"
You really, really don't want to be Russian in the future. That future gets worse with every day.
It is tragic. The videos of Russian tanks getting obliterated are gratifying, in one way - it is good to see a brutal invader defeated - but they are also intensely sad. Young men dying in agony for the lunatic vanity of a sick old man. And dying in their thousands
What a rancid state of affairs. Imagine what it must feel like now, to be a Russian conscript in Kherson. You are fighting a criminal fascist war of invasion against a nation that rightly hates you, meanwhile your dictator is probably about to sue for peace, so your death, when and if it arrives, will be as futile as it is painful
And, if you do survive to return home, you'll be sent to prison if you tell the truth about your harrowing experiences.
No Nato membership or foreign military bases. That seems a decent offer but could Putin really sell that as a win?
Presumably they are yielding Crimea forever, and maybe the separatist bits in the East?
Which is not unjustifiable. Crimea is more "Russian" than "Ukrainian"
You really, really don't want to be Russian in the future. That future gets worse with every day.
It is tragic. The videos of Russian tanks getting obliterated are gratifying, in one way - it is good to see a brutal invader defeated - but they are also intensely sad. Young men dying in agony for the lunatic vanity of a sick old man. And dying in their thousands
What a rancid state of affairs. Imagine what it must feel like now, to be a Russian conscript in Kherson. You are fighting a criminal fascist war of invasion against a nation that rightly hates you, meanwhile your dictator is probably about to sue for peace, so your death, when and if it arrives, will be as futile as it is painful
What a rancid state of affairs to be Russian and not going home and correcting the little tit in the Kremlin with huge malice.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
Mold always grows back
Mold is a small village in North Wales, which demands you apologise for this comparison.
Mould is what appears on your overripe melons.
Unless you an American, but in matters of English spelling Americans are always wrong.
Mold is a small village in North Wales .. Its great treasure (the Mold Cape) was stolen by an imperialist power and taken to London to be stored in the British Museum (of Looted Artefacts).
Mold’s quite big. County town of Flint.
My forefathers come from Mold way. If anyone asks, I say Holywell.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
Mold always grows back
Mold is a small village in North Wales, which demands you apologise for this comparison.
Mould is what appears on your overripe melons.
Unless you an American, but in matters of English spelling Americans are always wrong.
Mold is a small village in North Wales .. Its great treasure (the Mold Cape) was stolen by an imperialist power and taken to London to be stored in the British Museum (of Looted Artefacts).
Mold’s quite big. County town of Flint.
My forefathers come from Mold way. If anyone asks, I say Holywell.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
Mold always grows back
Mold is a small village in North Wales, which demands you apologise for this comparison.
Mould is what appears on your overripe melons.
Unless you an American, but in matters of English spelling Americans are always wrong.
Mold is a small village in North Wales .. Its great treasure (the Mold Cape) was stolen by an imperialist power and taken to London to be stored in the British Museum (of Looted Artefacts).
Mold’s quite big. County town of Flint.
My forefathers come from Mold way. If anyone asks, I say Holywell.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
Mold always grows back
Mold is a small village in North Wales, which demands you apologise for this comparison.
Mould is what appears on your overripe melons.
Unless you an American, but in matters of English spelling Americans are always wrong.
Mold is a small village in North Wales .. Its great treasure (the Mold Cape) was stolen by an imperialist power and taken to London to be stored in the British Museum (of Looted Artefacts).
Mold’s quite big. County town of Flint.
My forefathers come from Mold way. If anyone asks, I say Holywell.
No Nato membership or foreign military bases. That seems a decent offer but could Putin really sell that as a win?
Presumably they are yielding Crimea forever, and maybe the separatist bits in the East?
Which is not unjustifiable. Crimea is more "Russian" than "Ukrainian"
From my perspective it certainly is unjustifiable. Crimea has been Ukrainian since 1954. It voted to leave the Soviet Union. Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons in return for a commitment by the US/UK/Russia to respect its territorial integrity. It's territory has been taken by force and its citizens held hostage by a terrorist state. A referendum on its future could be held with proper international oversight.
Now maybe 'realism' suggests you sometimes have to appease terror and violence. But that's what it would be.
A plebiscite in Crimea - which would be assumed to be won by pro-Russians - is perhaps the fig leaf we need to overlook the sordid nature of its annexation by Russia.
Cheers. Had like a severe cold plus headache plus no energy for 3 days but just starting to improve. Although I'll probably have a psychosomatic relapse now I've done the test and discovered I have it.
Nah - the worst is over for you now.
I've not had covid yet, despite it being all round. I have had a stinky cold last week that left a lingering productive cough, but thats on its way out.
You do start to wonder when your turn is though...
I read a guesstimate somewhere that 90% of Brits have had Covid?
If that is the case, anyone who hasn't had it yet is likely one of the people who are naturally resistant, and they will never get it. So you might be truly lucky
I'm hoping so. I've been surrounded by near misses in the last few weeks (my project students seem to be dropping like an England slip corden right now.)
Hong Kong has one of the most stringent anti-Covid regimes in the world. 21 day compulsory quarantine, etc
Yet still, pointless: Covid has run amok.
Their cases have now peaked. But the dead will pile up for a while
Hong Kong had/has the HIGHEST peak death rate of any country since Covid began I believe.
And where HK goes, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Shanghai follow.
Indeed. Hong Kong has been registering a Case Fatality Rate of 5%. 1 in 20 cases dying - the unvaxxed old
China may avoid this fate, they are surging booster shots across the country, might be just in time. South Korea seems to be dodging the bullet: eg today they report 400,000 cases - huge numbers - but "only" 164 deaths.
If S Korea had the CFR of HK they would be reporting 20,000 deaths a day
@RobinBrooksIIF Something big is happening in global capital flows. China (pink) is seeing big capital outflows, while the rest of EM gets inflows. Never happened before on this scale and reflects asset managers looking at China in a new light after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Dead Putin is the key.
Sadly, not on the negotiating table.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
I think Musk may have challenged Putin to a duel. Daft, but if we all do he'll die, and that's all we need. Pretty happy to be second up, or way down the list.
Hong Kong has one of the most stringent anti-Covid regimes in the world. 21 day compulsory quarantine, etc
Yet still, pointless: Covid has run amok.
Their cases have now peaked. But the dead will pile up for a while
And serves as a reminder to those that would lock us up at a rise in cases - the sheer transmissability of omicron means that lockdowns aren't going to work anymore. Trust the decent vaccines (rumours that novavax might be the best in class) and get on with life.
- Cases - UP. R is crawling up a bit. Currently 1.35 or so. - In hospital - UP - MV Beds - Flat(ish) - Admissions - UP. R has stabilised at 1.1 - Deaths - DOWN. Falling very slowly now.
Won't deaths & MV beds (being lagging indicators) reflect what was happening with infections 10-14 days ago?
Hong Kong has one of the most stringent anti-Covid regimes in the world. 21 day compulsory quarantine, etc
Yet still, pointless: Covid has run amok.
Their cases have now peaked. But the dead will pile up for a while
Hong Kong had/has the HIGHEST peak death rate of any country since Covid began I believe.
And where HK goes, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Shanghai follow.
Indeed. Hong Kong has been registering a Case Fatality Rate of 5%. 1 in 20 cases dying - the unvaxxed old
China may avoid this fate, they are surging booster shots across the country, might be just in time. South Korea seems to be dodging the bullet: eg today they report 400,000 cases - huge numbers - but "only" 164 deaths.
If S Korea had the CFR of HK they would be reporting 20,000 deaths a day
South Korea has administered at least 120,028,530 doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 116.1% of the country’s population.
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
Well, would it be for the greater good?
What does normalising the annexations gain you over disputing them, but not actively pursuing military means to regain them? And, would it necessarily be so bad if Ukraine were to regain them militarily at some point int he future, as Croatia did with those parts of Croatia that had been occupied by the Serbs?
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
Right you want to restart this I can go on all evening and all night now if needed.
None of that changes whatsoever my point that Thatcher was prepared to fight to retake the Falklands as Argentina did not have nuclear weapons unlike us and had a far weaker military like us. Hence we won the war and she would have continued to fight the war no matter what the cost.
Sending a no fly zone into Ukraine against a Russia armed with nuclear weapons is however a totally different ball game
Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63 Reminder that to Putin “ceasefire” just means “reload”. Sanctions must stay and get stronger as long as any Russian forces are in Ukraine.
Comments
Mould is what appears on your overripe melons.
Unless you an American, but in matters of English spelling Americans are always wrong.
Achieving a contested landing against a prepared enemy is really hard.
Winning horse is like, who’s booing me? Let me in there and bite em. 😆
And they are over the bannisters approaching fence number 106, Mrs Miggins Front Gate.
Their actions and who their friends are speak volumes. They are Knuts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_98D6aLAKQ
I am hearing of a lot of people in extended family, friends of friends etc etc that have been hit this last two weeks. Definite exit wave happening as we come out of all lockdown regs.
I'm sure if you'd given it a bit more thought you wouldn't have wished to imply police misbehaviour was directed at only females.
https://twitter.com/BVasylchenko/status/1504124118240747523
From one of the replies to the tweet;
They're checking what equipment is still usable, basically saying "the helicopters are still fine" etc. Then specifically say "take this Kamaz (truck) and evacuate it, I'll meet you there."
Looks like very accurate targeting by the Ukrainians.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_Neutrality#:~:text=Pursuant to resolution of the,permit the establishment of any
If anyone asks, I say Holywell.
Something big is happening in global capital flows. China (pink) is seeing big capital outflows, while the rest of EM gets inflows. Never happened before on this scale and reflects asset managers looking at China in a new light after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1504102841446764548
The British Museum, recognising its importance and significance – and at a time before a National Museum existed in Wales – devoted efforts in acquiring the cape, and a number of the accompanying fragments, for its collections.
https://web.archive.org/web/20130715220938/http://www.museumwales.ac.uk/en/whatson/?event_id=6735
No Nato membership or foreign military bases. That seems a decent offer but could Putin really sell that as a win?
The fatigue is a notable feature of Covid. Like others I slept for 16-20 hours a day at one point
Which is not unjustifiable. Crimea is more "Russian" than "Ukrainian"
Getting rid of covid is really really easy. Especially as there are 4 British anti-virals.
If they don’t do the Job get yourself down to the Margaret Thatcher Memorial Hospital and have a lung transplant and a lobotomy.
You need to be prepared to do whatever it takes to keep these viral invaders out of British citizens.
I've not had covid yet, despite it being all round. I have had a stinky cold last week that left a lingering productive cough, but thats on its way out.
You do start to wonder when your turn is though...
If that is the case, anyone who hasn't had it yet is likely one of the people who are naturally resistant, and they will never get it. So you might be truly lucky
Briefly. FT published a draft, which represents the requesting position of the Russian side. Nothing more. The 🇺🇦 side has its own positions. The only thing we confirm at this stage is a ceasefire, withdrawal of Russian troops and security guarantees from a number of countries
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1504136862277017607
- Cases - UP. R is crawling up a bit. Currently 1.35 or so.
- In hospital - UP
- MV Beds - Flat(ish)
- Admissions - UP. R has stabilised at 1.1
- Deaths - DOWN. Falling very slowly now.
Otherwise, I'm not sure what point they are trying to make. It mostly seems to be that everything is our fault.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10619301/Morgues-overflow-bodies-Hong-Kong-deadly-Covid-wave-hits.html
Hong Kong has one of the most stringent anti-Covid regimes in the world. 21 day compulsory quarantine, etc
Yet still, pointless: Covid has run amok.
Their cases have now peaked. But the dead will pile up for a while
With a touch of Jif! to give it flavour.....
There’s also a massive property bubble which they’re trying to deflate…while easing monetary conditions to stave off recession.
China is facing a meaty slowdown, and in turn that would dampen growth in the region and around the world.
But then again I have only ever taken three tests so I might well have had it asymptomatically at some stage I suppose.
What a rancid state of affairs. Imagine what it must feel like now, to be a Russian conscript in Kherson. You are fighting a criminal fascist war of invasion against a nation that rightly hates you, meanwhile your dictator is probably about to sue for peace, so your death, when and if it arrives, will be as futile as it is painful
And where HK goes, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Shanghai follow.
Now maybe 'realism' suggests you sometimes have to appease terror and violence. But that's what it would be.
Михайло Подоляк
@Podolyak_M
Briefly. FT published a draft, which represents the requesting position of the Russian side. Nothing more. The 🇺🇦 side has its own positions. The only thing we confirm at this stage is a ceasefire, withdrawal of Russian troops and security guarantees from a number of countries
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1504136862277017607
The Russians, all of them, need to fix this.
@EuropeElects
France, Harris Interactive poll:
Presidential election (among 18-24 year olds)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 24%
Le Pen (RN-ID): 23%
Macron (EC-RE): 21%
Zemmour (REC-NI): 8%
Jadot (PE-G/EFA): 7%"
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1504123446543982597
Is Ukraine - and is the West - willing to let Russia normalise those grotesque annexations for the greater good?
https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1504142139101483025
$800m
China may avoid this fate, they are surging booster shots across the country, might be just in time. South Korea seems to be dodging the bullet: eg today they report 400,000 cases - huge numbers - but "only" 164 deaths.
If S Korea had the CFR of HK they would be reporting 20,000 deaths a day
Let's get that artillery trashed.
Although there is something in the idea that we should push the Russians into agreeing the sort of humiliation that cannot go unanswered by malcontents in Moscow.
https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/south-korea/
What does normalising the annexations gain you over disputing them, but not actively pursuing military means to regain them? And, would it necessarily be so bad if Ukraine were to regain them militarily at some point int he future, as Croatia did with those parts of Croatia that had been occupied by the Serbs?
None of that changes whatsoever my point that Thatcher was prepared to fight to retake the Falklands as Argentina did not have nuclear weapons unlike us and had a far weaker military like us. Hence we won the war and she would have continued to fight the war no matter what the cost.
Sending a no fly zone into Ukraine against a Russia armed with nuclear weapons is however a totally different ball game
@Kasparov63
Reminder that to Putin “ceasefire” just means “reload”. Sanctions must stay and get stronger as long as any Russian forces are in Ukraine.
Btw, this is the map of Ukraine. Unless you prefer to let Putin redraw your maps as well as your rules of national sovereignty, military engagement, and defense.
https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1504111531797143553