The worry about the security guarantees for Ukraine is that they might end up being as worthwhile as those it received when it gave up its nuclear weapons (ie worthless).
President Vladimir V. Putin hinted that the Kremlin is preparing to further crack down on dissidents and anyone with ties to the West, saying that Russia’s enemies were betting on a “fifth column, on national traitors” inside the country who were “not with our people, not with Russia.”
NY Times blog
That sounds like he knows this war is a calamity, and his presidency is consequently in danger. These are not the words of a confident leader
My thoughts exactly. It may also be, unfortunately, why he is keen to get a peace now so he can turn his attention to cracking down on dissent at home.
Unless he turns the whole country into a prison, it just means the brightest and best will bleed away. Any skilled 20/30 year old is going to be looking outside and comparing with a dreary, repressed Russian future and going "Hmmmmm......"
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Sadly, that's why I doubt there will be a peace deal unless he has effectively lost on the battlefield. And even then he may just doubt down with horror weapons.
There are reports that Russia is so desperate for manpower in Ukraine that, not only is it pulling out its force in South Ossetia but also that South Ossetia is “donating” forces for the Ukrainian conflict (I agree with @rcs1000 that Russia’s manpower casualties may already be above 15,000).
The other big issue that Russia has got here is time. Economically, the longer this goes on, the more drain on their economy. Militarily, Ukraine will also get “stronger” as it receives more equipment and recent recruits are more trained and / or foreign recruits start to be deployed.
If Lavrov is talking about Sweden and Austria as models, the Russians have clearly seen the signs on the wall.
We never seem to get reports on how many potential recruits there are in Western Ukraine and how they are being marshalled and equipped.
Are they assembling enough for a major offensive somewhere? and when?
If this is true and this peace holds I will literally open champagne. We have come so close to global disaster
Ins'allah!!
I'd be torn between opening champagne/ESW with the relief that we all live to fight another day, and bitterly regretting the fact Putin remains at large. Until his death or final complete defeat Europe won't be safe.
Who knows if this peace will happen, who knows if the Russians will stick to it (and it's not just a feint etc), but if it is real and it does stick then I'd say this is a major step towards the End of Putin.
He's 69, and he's totally fucked his country's economy, for absolutely no gain at all. There will be a reckoning. His many rich friends will not be happy holidaying in Pyongyang for the rest of time
There will be a gain, though, I think. East Ukraine and Crimea recognized as part of Russia. West Ukraine independent but unaligned. No EU, no NATO. Isn't that where it's heading?
You mean the small separatist regions in the East? They are - it should be noted - tiny.
From the details leaked to the FT, EU membership appears to still be on the table. Whether the EU will want to accept - with the consequent massive financial obligations - Ukraine as a member is another question altogether.
I would hope that the West (and this would be a great opportunity for the EU to lead) will help with the rebuilding of the Ukraine. And I would expect that - absent regime change in Moscow - we will demand help from Russia in paying for it.
In the event Ukraine applying for membership, I would bet my house and my children against their being refused.
How attractive are your children, and would I get a good price for them?
Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko Russia is now in no position to demand from Ukraine anything other than letting Putin save his face and withdraw to the February 24 status quo. With its economy collapsing and its military in Ukraine running out of capabilities and reserves, Moscow faces nothing promising.
A final thought on the Iran debt of money, that some people seem happy to link to Iran's hostage-taking and I've seen some people here say "if this debt is real, why not pay it sooner, to release her sooner" . . . it has never been at dispute that the UK owes Iran this money. That has been true for decades.
The UK has a proud record of being one of the only (if not the only) major developed economies to have never defaulted on its debts. The UK, like the Lannisters, always pays her debts - and this was an acknowledged debt all along to Iran.
But Iran was under sanctions and has been the entire time that the Ayatollahs have been in charge. Sanctions are not a default, even if an acknowledged debt exists.
The UK currently and rightly has all sorts of Russian money under sanctions. That is debts that the UK and British people, businesses or banks owe to Russia or Russian people, businesses or banks that can't be repaid. That isn't a default on those debts, its sanctions.
So for all those saying "why not pay Iran sooner" - if Russia today takes some British citizens hostage, should we lift the sanctions we've imposed on Russia as a result? That's exactly what you're calling for with regards to Iran.
There are all sorts of reasons why lifting sanctions on Iran may be appropriate - if we have a new deal with them, or realpolitik as we deal with the greater evil in Russia and need Iranian oil, or many other reasons. But that they've taken hostages should never be a justification for sanction-breaking.
The sanctions are/were a sideshow. The harsh reality is that if Iran develops a nuclear weapon the Israelis will take it out, leaving a big hole where Teheran used to be. For them it's an existential threat and no-one has the power to stop them. So the Iranians can either use the tank money for peaceful development or they can spend it making themselves a sitting target for a pre-emptive Israeli strike (with the Saudis cheering from the sidelines). They may well make the wrong decision, so it could be argued that by withholding the money we were doing them a favour, even if they couldn't see it that way.
From that it sounds more like Israel is an existential threat to Iran.
They are an existential threat to each other. In a way.
But have managed over the years, not to destroy each other.
Randomly the book I was reading today, Moonwar by Ben Bova, opens with an apparent Thucydides quote which many Ukrainians might cleave to even if peace can be had.
War is an evil thing, but to submit to the dictation of other states is worse...Freedom, if we hold fast to it, will ultimately restore our losses, but submission will mean permanent loss of all that we value...To you who call yourselves men of peace I say: you are not safe unless you have men of action on your side.
I'm sure I'd grasp at any option to end fighting (or be a collaborator), but how much even Zelensky can sell as the price for peace, with an enemy who is an untrustworthy liar, to his people? Who knows.
Let’s not go overboard. 🙂 if Shiskin hadn’t messed up a few fences and rattled itself it would have been battle royale up the hill. Seemed to be stalking Shiskin this time. Determined tactic. This is a sequence of clash between these two that’s going to run.
Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko Russia is now in no position to demand from Ukraine anything other than letting Putin save his face and withdraw to the February 24 status quo. With its economy collapsing and its military in Ukraine running out of capabilities and reserves, Moscow faces nothing promising.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
If this is true and this peace holds I will literally open champagne. We have come so close to global disaster
Ins'allah!!
I'd be torn between opening champagne/ESW with the relief that we all live to fight another day, and bitterly regretting the fact Putin remains at large. Until his death or final complete defeat Europe won't be safe.
Who knows if this peace will happen, who knows if the Russians will stick to it (and it's not just a feint etc), but if it is real and it does stick then I'd say this is a major step towards the End of Putin.
He's 69, and he's totally fucked his country's economy, for absolutely no gain at all. There will be a reckoning. His many rich friends will not be happy holidaying in Pyongyang for the rest of time
There will be a gain, though, I think. East Ukraine and Crimea recognized as part of Russia. West Ukraine independent but unaligned. No EU, no NATO. Isn't that where it's heading?
You mean the small separatist regions in the East? They are - it should be noted - tiny.
From the details leaked to the FT, EU membership appears to still be on the table. Whether the EU will want to accept - with the consequent massive financial obligations - Ukraine as a member is another question altogether.
I would hope that the West (and this would be a great opportunity for the EU to lead) will help with the rebuilding of the Ukraine. And I would expect that - absent regime change in Moscow - we will demand help from Russia in paying for it.
In the event Ukraine applying for membership, I would bet my house and my children against their being refused.
How attractive are your children, and would I get a good price for them?
We went through this before - you need to create an OTC market in People Default Swaps. That way you can avoid creating an immediate capital gains tax issue.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Sadly, that's why I doubt there will be a peace deal unless he has effectively lost on the battlefield. And even then he may just doubt down with horror weapons.
There are reports that Russia is so desperate for manpower in Ukraine that, not only is it pulling out its force in South Ossetia but also that South Ossetia is “donating” forces for the Ukrainian conflict (I agree with @rcs1000 that Russia’s manpower casualties may already be above 15,000).
The other big issue that Russia has got here is time. Economically, the longer this goes on, the more drain on their economy. Militarily, Ukraine will also get “stronger” as it receives more equipment and recent recruits are more trained and / or foreign recruits start to be deployed.
If Lavrov is talking about Sweden and Austria as models, the Russians have clearly seen the signs on the wall.
We never seem to get reports on how many potential recruits there are in Western Ukraine and how they are being marshalled and equipped.
Are they assembling enough for a major offensive somewhere? and when?
There was a report that they'd finished mobilising their 200,000 reserves, but I don't think they have enough heavy equipment (armoured vehicles, etc) to be able to use them for a major offensive.
Notable that the West has been providing essentially only defensive equipment, rather than the material that would be required for an offensive to retake the Donbas.
If this is true and this peace holds I will literally open champagne. We have come so close to global disaster
Ins'allah!!
I'd be torn between opening champagne/ESW with the relief that we all live to fight another day, and bitterly regretting the fact Putin remains at large. Until his death or final complete defeat Europe won't be safe.
Who knows if this peace will happen, who knows if the Russians will stick to it (and it's not just a feint etc), but if it is real and it does stick then I'd say this is a major step towards the End of Putin.
He's 69, and he's totally fucked his country's economy, for absolutely no gain at all. There will be a reckoning. His many rich friends will not be happy holidaying in Pyongyang for the rest of time
There will be a gain, though, I think. East Ukraine and Crimea recognized as part of Russia. West Ukraine independent but unaligned. No EU, no NATO. Isn't that where it's heading?
It's a gain for Russia (and one that sticks in my craw), but it may be worth it for peace. In addition, Russia's been badly hurt by this - especially if we don't remove all sanctions.
This whole adventure has been a disaster for Ukraine and Russia. Except Russia chose it. It is their fault.
I hope Putin goes to hell and rots there.
Yes, truly awful man. I hope what comes after him - whenever that is - is enlightened and democratic. I don't buy the notion there's something innate about Russia which precludes this.
Plenty of countries have changed their spots - in both directions.
Russia’s leaders have lied & lied & lied. So there’s every reason to be sceptical of anything it says it might accept. It’s strategically lost in Ukraine, militarily stuck & Internationally a pariah. It may be looking for a way out, or a strategic pause to resupply & rethink.
That's going to be a tough sell in the West. Our sanctions are clearly working. Do we just drop them all because Russia makes a vague promise?
It would have to be a negotiated process, done step by step
Yes, it was an unprecedented reaction for good reason, and they should be wary of reversing in any significant way just because Russia stops killing people for 5 minutes.
Let’s not go overboard. 🙂 if Shiskin hadn’t messed up a few fences and rattled itself it would have been battle royale up the hill. Seemed to be stalking Shiskin this time. Determined tactic. This is a sequence of clash between these two that’s going to run.
Ah, now I'm getting worried that I've backed against your tip in the next...!
If this is true and this peace holds I will literally open champagne. We have come so close to global disaster
Ins'allah!!
I'd be torn between opening champagne/ESW with the relief that we all live to fight another day, and bitterly regretting the fact Putin remains at large. Until his death or final complete defeat Europe won't be safe.
Who knows if this peace will happen, who knows if the Russians will stick to it (and it's not just a feint etc), but if it is real and it does stick then I'd say this is a major step towards the End of Putin.
He's 69, and he's totally fucked his country's economy, for absolutely no gain at all. There will be a reckoning. His many rich friends will not be happy holidaying in Pyongyang for the rest of time
There will be a gain, though, I think. East Ukraine and Crimea recognized as part of Russia. West Ukraine independent but unaligned. No EU, no NATO. Isn't that where it's heading?
You mean the small separatist regions in the East? They are - it should be noted - tiny.
From the details leaked to the FT, EU membership appears to still be on the table. Whether the EU will want to accept - with the consequent massive financial obligations - Ukraine as a member is another question altogether.
I would hope that the West (and this would be a great opportunity for the EU to lead) will help with the rebuilding of the Ukraine. And I would expect that - absent regime change in Moscow - we will demand help from Russia in paying for it.
In the event Ukraine applying for membership, I would bet my house and my children against their being refused.
The question is how long the EU would string out the process. Ukraine has been refused candidate status for 17 years.
"Ukraine rejects Russian peace talks proposal to become 'neutral' like Sweden - and demands guarantees that international forces will 'prevent attacks' in future"
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Sadly, that's why I doubt there will be a peace deal unless he has effectively lost on the battlefield. And even then he may just doubt down with horror weapons.
There are reports that Russia is so desperate for manpower in Ukraine that, not only is it pulling out its force in South Ossetia but also that South Ossetia is “donating” forces for the Ukrainian conflict (I agree with @rcs1000 that Russia’s manpower casualties may already be above 15,000).
The other big issue that Russia has got here is time. Economically, the longer this goes on, the more drain on their economy. Militarily, Ukraine will also get “stronger” as it receives more equipment and recent recruits are more trained and / or foreign recruits start to be deployed.
If Lavrov is talking about Sweden and Austria as models, the Russians have clearly seen the signs on the wall.
We never seem to get reports on how many potential recruits there are in Western Ukraine and how they are being marshalled and equipped.
Are they assembling enough for a major offensive somewhere? and when?
I don't think that the Ukrainians can mount any kind of major offensive.
But they can inflict massive casualties on Russian troops via antitank weapons and snipers. It makes holding territory incredibly difficult for the Russians.
If this is true and this peace holds I will literally open champagne. We have come so close to global disaster
Ins'allah!!
I'd be torn between opening champagne/ESW with the relief that we all live to fight another day, and bitterly regretting the fact Putin remains at large. Until his death or final complete defeat Europe won't be safe.
Who knows if this peace will happen, who knows if the Russians will stick to it (and it's not just a feint etc), but if it is real and it does stick then I'd say this is a major step towards the End of Putin.
He's 69, and he's totally fucked his country's economy, for absolutely no gain at all. There will be a reckoning. His many rich friends will not be happy holidaying in Pyongyang for the rest of time
There will be a gain, though, I think. East Ukraine and Crimea recognized as part of Russia. West Ukraine independent but unaligned. No EU, no NATO. Isn't that where it's heading?
You mean the small separatist regions in the East? They are - it should be noted - tiny.
From the details leaked to the FT, EU membership appears to still be on the table. Whether the EU will want to accept - with the consequent massive financial obligations - Ukraine as a member is another question altogether.
I would hope that the West (and this would be a great opportunity for the EU to lead) will help with the rebuilding of the Ukraine. And I would expect that - absent regime change in Moscow - we will demand help from Russia in paying for it.
In the event Ukraine applying for membership, I would bet my house and my children against their being refused.
How attractive are your children, and would I get a good price for them?
I have just filled up my oil tank so I can tell you they are cheaper to run than the house.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
Perhaps Germany will sense an opportunity to negotiate long term contracts for cheap gas...
Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa Ukraine gained a complete victory in its case against Russia at the International Court of Justice. The ICJ ordered to immediately stop the invasion. The order is binding under international law. Russia must comply immediately. Ignoring the order will isolate Russia even further https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1504120775749550081
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
I can't see how Nordstream 2 happens, at least as long as the Greens are part of the German gvt.
Russia’s leaders have lied & lied & lied. So there’s every reason to be sceptical of anything it says it might accept. It’s strategically lost in Ukraine, militarily stuck & Internationally a pariah. It may be looking for a way out, or a strategic pause to resupply & rethink.
If this is true and this peace holds I will literally open champagne. We have come so close to global disaster
Ins'allah!!
I'd be torn between opening champagne/ESW with the relief that we all live to fight another day, and bitterly regretting the fact Putin remains at large. Until his death or final complete defeat Europe won't be safe.
Who knows if this peace will happen, who knows if the Russians will stick to it (and it's not just a feint etc), but if it is real and it does stick then I'd say this is a major step towards the End of Putin.
He's 69, and he's totally fucked his country's economy, for absolutely no gain at all. There will be a reckoning. His many rich friends will not be happy holidaying in Pyongyang for the rest of time
There will be a gain, though, I think. East Ukraine and Crimea recognized as part of Russia. West Ukraine independent but unaligned. No EU, no NATO. Isn't that where it's heading?
You mean the small separatist regions in the East? They are - it should be noted - tiny.
From the details leaked to the FT, EU membership appears to still be on the table. Whether the EU will want to accept - with the consequent massive financial obligations - Ukraine as a member is another question altogether.
I would hope that the West (and this would be a great opportunity for the EU to lead) will help with the rebuilding of the Ukraine. And I would expect that - absent regime change in Moscow - we will demand help from Russia in paying for it.
In the event Ukraine applying for membership, I would bet my house and my children against their being refused.
Could end up being a modern day Turkey in that respect. No doubt the initial application will be approved, but we've already heard noises from the western countries that it won't be a quick process.
To meet the conditions for corruption levels, rule of law, economics which are written into the current accession process would take a long time.
I think it was on the order of decade for some of the Eastern countries?
Estonia applied for membership at the end of 1995, completed all "chapters" by end 2002, and became a member in 2004.
If this is true and this peace holds I will literally open champagne. We have come so close to global disaster
Ins'allah!!
I'd be torn between opening champagne/ESW with the relief that we all live to fight another day, and bitterly regretting the fact Putin remains at large. Until his death or final complete defeat Europe won't be safe.
Who knows if this peace will happen, who knows if the Russians will stick to it (and it's not just a feint etc), but if it is real and it does stick then I'd say this is a major step towards the End of Putin.
He's 69, and he's totally fucked his country's economy, for absolutely no gain at all. There will be a reckoning. His many rich friends will not be happy holidaying in Pyongyang for the rest of time
There will be a gain, though, I think. East Ukraine and Crimea recognized as part of Russia. West Ukraine independent but unaligned. No EU, no NATO. Isn't that where it's heading?
You mean the small separatist regions in the East? They are - it should be noted - tiny.
From the details leaked to the FT, EU membership appears to still be on the table. Whether the EU will want to accept - with the consequent massive financial obligations - Ukraine as a member is another question altogether.
I would hope that the West (and this would be a great opportunity for the EU to lead) will help with the rebuilding of the Ukraine. And I would expect that - absent regime change in Moscow - we will demand help from Russia in paying for it.
In the event Ukraine applying for membership, I would bet my house and my children against their being refused.
The question is how long the EU would string out the process. Ukraine has been refused candidate status for 17 years.
If the political will is there on both sides to truly change the country, and generous moneys provided to help them change, then it could be a quicker process than feared, but it's still clearly an arduous process they are not going to breeze through even if they genuinely work for it.
Neutral like Sweden sounds pretty solid to me. I mean, technically a Russian invasion (presumably via Finland to which same point applies) would be indistinguishable from their invading Ukraine and subject to the same nothing to do with us guv arguments from NATO, but it would feel a lot different in that Sweden is Western Europe and somewhere we have all heard of and know isn't part of Russia and never was.
Charles XII march on Moscow is anothe up-there-with-Putin debacle btw. Theme emerging.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Sadly, that's why I doubt there will be a peace deal unless he has effectively lost on the battlefield. And even then he may just doubt down with horror weapons.
There are reports that Russia is so desperate for manpower in Ukraine that, not only is it pulling out its force in South Ossetia but also that South Ossetia is “donating” forces for the Ukrainian conflict (I agree with @rcs1000 that Russia’s manpower casualties may already be above 15,000).
The other big issue that Russia has got here is time. Economically, the longer this goes on, the more drain on their economy. Militarily, Ukraine will also get “stronger” as it receives more equipment and recent recruits are more trained and / or foreign recruits start to be deployed.
If Lavrov is talking about Sweden and Austria as models, the Russians have clearly seen the signs on the wall.
We never seem to get reports on how many potential recruits there are in Western Ukraine and how they are being marshalled and equipped.
Are they assembling enough for a major offensive somewhere? and when?
There was a report that they'd finished mobilising their 200,000 reserves, but I don't think they have enough heavy equipment (armoured vehicles, etc) to be able to use them for a major offensive.
Notable that the West has been providing essentially only defensive equipment, rather than the material that would be required for an offensive to retake the Donbas.
They now have a significant chunk of Russian tanks and weapons for that purpose though. And a mountain of defensive kit to prevent any counter-attacks. Stuff they have never had before.
And it is hard to see Russia being much of a donor of military toys to its puppet states for a few years yet.
Let’s not go overboard. 🙂 if Shiskin hadn’t messed up a few fences and rattled itself it would have been battle royale up the hill. Seemed to be stalking Shiskin this time. Determined tactic. This is a sequence of clash between these two that’s going to run.
Ah, now I'm getting worried that I've backed against your tip in the next...!
😆I only tipped it each way, but I’m not unhappy it’s rained.
If this is true and this peace holds I will literally open champagne. We have come so close to global disaster
Ins'allah!!
I'd be torn between opening champagne/ESW with the relief that we all live to fight another day, and bitterly regretting the fact Putin remains at large. Until his death or final complete defeat Europe won't be safe.
Who knows if this peace will happen, who knows if the Russians will stick to it (and it's not just a feint etc), but if it is real and it does stick then I'd say this is a major step towards the End of Putin.
He's 69, and he's totally fucked his country's economy, for absolutely no gain at all. There will be a reckoning. His many rich friends will not be happy holidaying in Pyongyang for the rest of time
There will be a gain, though, I think. East Ukraine and Crimea recognized as part of Russia. West Ukraine independent but unaligned. No EU, no NATO. Isn't that where it's heading?
You mean the small separatist regions in the East? They are - it should be noted - tiny.
From the details leaked to the FT, EU membership appears to still be on the table. Whether the EU will want to accept - with the consequent massive financial obligations - Ukraine as a member is another question altogether.
I would hope that the West (and this would be a great opportunity for the EU to lead) will help with the rebuilding of the Ukraine. And I would expect that - absent regime change in Moscow - we will demand help from Russia in paying for it.
In the event Ukraine applying for membership, I would bet my house and my children against their being refused.
The question is how long the EU would string out the process. Ukraine has been refused candidate status for 17 years.
If the political will is there on both sides to truly change the country, and generous moneys provided to help them change, then it could be a quicker process than feared, but it's still clearly an arduous process they are not going to breeze through even if they genuinely work for it.
France in particular will be very ambivalent about Ukrainian membership. It will be a threat to their agricultural interests and mark the definitive end of their long-standing aspiration to negotiate an alternative security partnership with Russia.
Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa Ukraine gained a complete victory in its case against Russia at the International Court of Justice. The ICJ ordered to immediately stop the invasion. The order is binding under international law. Russia must comply immediately. Ignoring the order will isolate Russia even further https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1504120775749550081
Binding may be an optimistic description (though I'm sure he's utterly realistic in terms of practical effect)
Of course, the Ukraine has still been bombed to high heaven, so it will be a "victory" that has cost it dear.
And while Russia will no doubt avoid paying for the damage it has caused, it will have successfully drawn the West closer together, reversed half a century of German pacificism, ensured that Europe buys a lot less Russian energy, and made it pretty clear that Russian equipment is inferior to US, British, French and Swedish kit.
I don't see why Russia should avoid paying for the damage they have done. Plainly the aggression is theirs. And there are provisions in International Law.
And the cash needed for compensation is mainly Russian Govt reserves frozen in Western and other banks. Plus perhaps ill-gotten gains of Putin-cronies could be confiscated.
It would not surprise me if there were already some lawyers working on keeping those frozen assets, frozen.
You can either learn from the mistakes of history, or repeat them. Massive reparations, economic collapse, hyperinflation... can you think of any precedents, and how did they work out?
That's too simplistic, and depends what you mean by "massive".
Compared to Versailles, there are nearly two orders of magnitude difference, and the comparison is not apposite at this point.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Sadly, that's why I doubt there will be a peace deal unless he has effectively lost on the battlefield. And even then he may just doubt down with horror weapons.
There are reports that Russia is so desperate for manpower in Ukraine that, not only is it pulling out its force in South Ossetia but also that South Ossetia is “donating” forces for the Ukrainian conflict (I agree with @rcs1000 that Russia’s manpower casualties may already be above 15,000).
The other big issue that Russia has got here is time. Economically, the longer this goes on, the more drain on their economy. Militarily, Ukraine will also get “stronger” as it receives more equipment and recent recruits are more trained and / or foreign recruits start to be deployed.
If Lavrov is talking about Sweden and Austria as models, the Russians have clearly seen the signs on the wall.
We never seem to get reports on how many potential recruits there are in Western Ukraine and how they are being marshalled and equipped.
Are they assembling enough for a major offensive somewhere? and when?
I don't think that the Ukrainians can mount any kind of major offensive.
But they can inflict massive casualties on Russian troops via antitank weapons and snipers. It makes holding territory incredibly difficult for the Russians.
This is my sense. The Ukrainians are being effective with active, mobile defence, rather than holding static positions, and they don't have the capacity to push back and re-occupy taken territory. Otherwise they would have pushed to open up by force of arms a corridor to Mariupol.
If this is true and this peace holds I will literally open champagne. We have come so close to global disaster
Ins'allah!!
I'd be torn between opening champagne/ESW with the relief that we all live to fight another day, and bitterly regretting the fact Putin remains at large. Until his death or final complete defeat Europe won't be safe.
Who knows if this peace will happen, who knows if the Russians will stick to it (and it's not just a feint etc), but if it is real and it does stick then I'd say this is a major step towards the End of Putin.
He's 69, and he's totally fucked his country's economy, for absolutely no gain at all. There will be a reckoning. His many rich friends will not be happy holidaying in Pyongyang for the rest of time
There will be a gain, though, I think. East Ukraine and Crimea recognized as part of Russia. West Ukraine independent but unaligned. No EU, no NATO. Isn't that where it's heading?
You mean the small separatist regions in the East? They are - it should be noted - tiny.
From the details leaked to the FT, EU membership appears to still be on the table. Whether the EU will want to accept - with the consequent massive financial obligations - Ukraine as a member is another question altogether.
I would hope that the West (and this would be a great opportunity for the EU to lead) will help with the rebuilding of the Ukraine. And I would expect that - absent regime change in Moscow - we will demand help from Russia in paying for it.
In the event Ukraine applying for membership, I would bet my house and my children against their being refused.
Could end up being a modern day Turkey in that respect. No doubt the initial application will be approved, but we've already heard noises from the western countries that it won't be a quick process.
To meet the conditions for corruption levels, rule of law, economics which are written into the current accession process would take a long time.
I think it was on the order of decade for some of the Eastern countries?
Didn't take long for East Germany.
Or you could compare the Ukraine with Bulgaria as it is today and just wave the less corrupt country in...
Lithuania took 13 years from being part of the Soviet Union.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Sadly, that's why I doubt there will be a peace deal unless he has effectively lost on the battlefield. And even then he may just doubt down with horror weapons.
There are reports that Russia is so desperate for manpower in Ukraine that, not only is it pulling out its force in South Ossetia but also that South Ossetia is “donating” forces for the Ukrainian conflict (I agree with @rcs1000 that Russia’s manpower casualties may already be above 15,000).
The other big issue that Russia has got here is time. Economically, the longer this goes on, the more drain on their economy. Militarily, Ukraine will also get “stronger” as it receives more equipment and recent recruits are more trained and / or foreign recruits start to be deployed.
If Lavrov is talking about Sweden and Austria as models, the Russians have clearly seen the signs on the wall.
We never seem to get reports on how many potential recruits there are in Western Ukraine and how they are being marshalled and equipped.
Are they assembling enough for a major offensive somewhere? and when?
There was a report that they'd finished mobilising their 200,000 reserves, but I don't think they have enough heavy equipment (armoured vehicles, etc) to be able to use them for a major offensive.
Notable that the West has been providing essentially only defensive equipment, rather than the material that would be required for an offensive to retake the Donbas.
I dont think they'll ever get those regions back. The West will get very nervous about Ukrainian offensives to pre 2014 areas, even if they get the chance. Going in to areas that after 8 years of domination may be more strongly Russisn than before? I dont think the West has the stomach to support what it might take.
If I were Chechnya I'd be annoyed. They don't get to be their own puppet 'independent' state, even though they do get their own semi autonomous autocrat within Russia.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, told the Financial Times that any deal would involve “the troops of the Russian Federation in any case leaving the territory of Ukraine” captured since the invasion began on February 24 — namely southern regions along the Azov and Black Seas, as well as territory to the east and north of Kyiv.
Ukraine would maintain its armed forces but would be obliged to stay outside military alliances such as Nato and refrain from hosting foreign military bases on its territory.
I am assuming that is what is meant by the constraints, along with no-nuclear.
(btw - anyone who doesn't subscribe to the FT, it's the last bastion of old-fashioned good journalism and I warmly recommend it)
If this is true and this peace holds I will literally open champagne. We have come so close to global disaster
Ins'allah!!
I'd be torn between opening champagne/ESW with the relief that we all live to fight another day, and bitterly regretting the fact Putin remains at large. Until his death or final complete defeat Europe won't be safe.
Who knows if this peace will happen, who knows if the Russians will stick to it (and it's not just a feint etc), but if it is real and it does stick then I'd say this is a major step towards the End of Putin.
He's 69, and he's totally fucked his country's economy, for absolutely no gain at all. There will be a reckoning. His many rich friends will not be happy holidaying in Pyongyang for the rest of time
There will be a gain, though, I think. East Ukraine and Crimea recognized as part of Russia. West Ukraine independent but unaligned. No EU, no NATO. Isn't that where it's heading?
You mean the small separatist regions in the East? They are - it should be noted - tiny.
From the details leaked to the FT, EU membership appears to still be on the table. Whether the EU will want to accept - with the consequent massive financial obligations - Ukraine as a member is another question altogether.
I would hope that the West (and this would be a great opportunity for the EU to lead) will help with the rebuilding of the Ukraine. And I would expect that - absent regime change in Moscow - we will demand help from Russia in paying for it.
In the event Ukraine applying for membership, I would bet my house and my children against their being refused.
How attractive are your children, and would I get a good price for them?
We went through this before - you need to create an OTC market in People Default Swaps. That way you can avoid creating an immediate capital gains tax issue.
A certain poster wants to know, are public school fees CGT and IHT deductible?
Russia’s leaders have lied & lied & lied. So there’s every reason to be sceptical of anything it says it might accept. It’s strategically lost in Ukraine, militarily stuck & Internationally a pariah. It may be looking for a way out, or a strategic pause to resupply & rethink.
Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, told the Financial Times that any deal would involve “the troops of the Russian Federation in any case leaving the territory of Ukraine” captured since the invasion began on February 24 — namely southern regions along the Azov and Black Seas, as well as territory to the east and north of Kyiv.
Ukraine would maintain its armed forces but would be obliged to stay outside military alliances such as Nato and refrain from hosting foreign military bases on its territory.
I am assuming that is what is meant by the constraints, along with no-nuclear.
(btw - anyone who doesn't subscribe to the FT, it's the last bastion of old-fashioned good journalism and I warmly recommend it)
I did subscribe, but got pissed off that;
A ) they have a second tier of paywall for their most interesting stuff.
And
B ) it’s dead easy to jump over their main paywall, by copy/pasting a link into a private window, do a Google search and then click through.
So I cancelled my sub.
Great journalism, but they’ve got their paywall model all wrong.
If this is true and this peace holds I will literally open champagne. We have come so close to global disaster
Ins'allah!!
I'd be torn between opening champagne/ESW with the relief that we all live to fight another day, and bitterly regretting the fact Putin remains at large. Until his death or final complete defeat Europe won't be safe.
Who knows if this peace will happen, who knows if the Russians will stick to it (and it's not just a feint etc), but if it is real and it does stick then I'd say this is a major step towards the End of Putin.
He's 69, and he's totally fucked his country's economy, for absolutely no gain at all. There will be a reckoning. His many rich friends will not be happy holidaying in Pyongyang for the rest of time
There will be a gain, though, I think. East Ukraine and Crimea recognized as part of Russia. West Ukraine independent but unaligned. No EU, no NATO. Isn't that where it's heading?
You mean the small separatist regions in the East? They are - it should be noted - tiny.
From the details leaked to the FT, EU membership appears to still be on the table. Whether the EU will want to accept - with the consequent massive financial obligations - Ukraine as a member is another question altogether.
I would hope that the West (and this would be a great opportunity for the EU to lead) will help with the rebuilding of the Ukraine. And I would expect that - absent regime change in Moscow - we will demand help from Russia in paying for it.
In the event Ukraine applying for membership, I would bet my house and my children against their being refused.
The question is how long the EU would string out the process. Ukraine has been refused candidate status for 17 years.
If the political will is there on both sides to truly change the country, and generous moneys provided to help them change, then it could be a quicker process than feared, but it's still clearly an arduous process they are not going to breeze through even if they genuinely work for it.
France in particular will be very ambivalent about Ukrainian membership. It will be a threat to their agricultural interests and mark the definitive end of their long-standing aspiration to negotiate an alternative security partnership with Russia.
That's the reason why the Ukraine are pushing for it now while the usual barriers cannot be thrown in the way..
If this is true and this peace holds I will literally open champagne. We have come so close to global disaster
Ins'allah!!
I'd be torn between opening champagne/ESW with the relief that we all live to fight another day, and bitterly regretting the fact Putin remains at large. Until his death or final complete defeat Europe won't be safe.
Who knows if this peace will happen, who knows if the Russians will stick to it (and it's not just a feint etc), but if it is real and it does stick then I'd say this is a major step towards the End of Putin.
He's 69, and he's totally fucked his country's economy, for absolutely no gain at all. There will be a reckoning. His many rich friends will not be happy holidaying in Pyongyang for the rest of time
There will be a gain, though, I think. East Ukraine and Crimea recognized as part of Russia. West Ukraine independent but unaligned. No EU, no NATO. Isn't that where it's heading?
You mean the small separatist regions in the East? They are - it should be noted - tiny.
From the details leaked to the FT, EU membership appears to still be on the table. Whether the EU will want to accept - with the consequent massive financial obligations - Ukraine as a member is another question altogether.
I would hope that the West (and this would be a great opportunity for the EU to lead) will help with the rebuilding of the Ukraine. And I would expect that - absent regime change in Moscow - we will demand help from Russia in paying for it.
Where does this "separatist" come from?
Small regions that voted to stay in Ukraine in the only free referendum held. I think in 1993.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
Oh I don't disagree with your analysis, just pointing out what I think should happen. It won't of course. Sadly.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
What do the US Navy or a Marshall of the Royal Air Force know when put up against the intellectual might of a Parish Councillor from Epping who's never seen a rifle or looked at any war in history?
Shocking news from the Test: the West Indies have managed to bowl the full 30 overs in the morning session.
And somehow England are only one down...
Not been keeping up with this, but 47 runs in 30 overs is terrible. I'm assuming good, tight bowling, but I'm also hoping this pitch is not another one like the last. Nothing will finish test match cricket faster than games where three England batsmen get centuries in one match... Its not natural.
If this is true and this peace holds I will literally open champagne. We have come so close to global disaster
Ins'allah!!
I'd be torn between opening champagne/ESW with the relief that we all live to fight another day, and bitterly regretting the fact Putin remains at large. Until his death or final complete defeat Europe won't be safe.
Who knows if this peace will happen, who knows if the Russians will stick to it (and it's not just a feint etc), but if it is real and it does stick then I'd say this is a major step towards the End of Putin.
He's 69, and he's totally fucked his country's economy, for absolutely no gain at all. There will be a reckoning. His many rich friends will not be happy holidaying in Pyongyang for the rest of time
There will be a gain, though, I think. East Ukraine and Crimea recognized as part of Russia. West Ukraine independent but unaligned. No EU, no NATO. Isn't that where it's heading?
You mean the small separatist regions in the East? They are - it should be noted - tiny.
From the details leaked to the FT, EU membership appears to still be on the table. Whether the EU will want to accept - with the consequent massive financial obligations - Ukraine as a member is another question altogether.
I would hope that the West (and this would be a great opportunity for the EU to lead) will help with the rebuilding of the Ukraine. And I would expect that - absent regime change in Moscow - we will demand help from Russia in paying for it.
In the event Ukraine applying for membership, I would bet my house and my children against their being refused.
The question is how long the EU would string out the process. Ukraine has been refused candidate status for 17 years.
If the political will is there on both sides to truly change the country, and generous moneys provided to help them change, then it could be a quicker process than feared, but it's still clearly an arduous process they are not going to breeze through even if they genuinely work for it.
France in particular will be very ambivalent about Ukrainian membership. It will be a threat to their agricultural interests and mark the definitive end of their long-standing aspiration to negotiate an alternative security partnership with Russia.
France and Russia have a long history of friendship.
But Macron in particular has been pretty bruised by this, and has been well ahead of Germany and Italy (albeit behind the UK) in providing support to Ukraine.
So I suspect the "alternative security partnership" is dead, so long as as Macron and Putin remain heads of their respective governments.
Simply, Russia is the big, bad enemy of NATO again.
(Also worth remembering that France's defence industry is a massive winner from a new cold war.)
Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, told the Financial Times that any deal would involve “the troops of the Russian Federation in any case leaving the territory of Ukraine” captured since the invasion began on February 24 — namely southern regions along the Azov and Black Seas, as well as territory to the east and north of Kyiv.
Ukraine would maintain its armed forces but would be obliged to stay outside military alliances such as Nato and refrain from hosting foreign military bases on its territory.
I am assuming that is what is meant by the constraints, along with no-nuclear.
(btw - anyone who doesn't subscribe to the FT, it's the last bastion of old-fashioned good journalism and I warmly recommend it)
I did subscribe, but got pissed off that;
A ) they have a second tier of paywall for their most interesting stuff.
And
B ) it’s dead easy to jump over their main paywall, by copy/pasting a link into a private window, do a Google search and then click through.
So I cancelled my sub.
Great journalism, but they’ve got their paywall model all wrong.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
Oh I don't disagree with your analysis, just pointing out what I think should happen. It won't of course. Sadly.
If this is true and this peace holds I will literally open champagne. We have come so close to global disaster
Ins'allah!!
I'd be torn between opening champagne/ESW with the relief that we all live to fight another day, and bitterly regretting the fact Putin remains at large. Until his death or final complete defeat Europe won't be safe.
Who knows if this peace will happen, who knows if the Russians will stick to it (and it's not just a feint etc), but if it is real and it does stick then I'd say this is a major step towards the End of Putin.
He's 69, and he's totally fucked his country's economy, for absolutely no gain at all. There will be a reckoning. His many rich friends will not be happy holidaying in Pyongyang for the rest of time
There will be a gain, though, I think. East Ukraine and Crimea recognized as part of Russia. West Ukraine independent but unaligned. No EU, no NATO. Isn't that where it's heading?
It's a gain for Russia (and one that sticks in my craw), but it may be worth it for peace. In addition, Russia's been badly hurt by this - especially if we don't remove all sanctions.
This whole adventure has been a disaster for Ukraine and Russia. Except Russia chose it. It is their fault.
I hope Putin goes to hell and rots there.
Yes, truly awful man. I hope what comes after him - whenever that is - is enlightened and democratic. I don't buy the notion there's something innate about Russia which precludes this.
I hope so too but really good article in Saturday's FT has made me more pessimistic - there are deep reserves of embittered Greater Russian nationalism that he taps into and will be there for his successor. Nationalism inflamed by a disastrous transition from the Soviet economy, embittered ordinary folk ripped off by scoundrels. The majority outside the embryonic internationalist modern economy in the big cities. I also thoroughly recommend this series of tweets by Kamil Galeev: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498377757536968711.html Best thing I've read on the crisis and very thought provoking.
As it happens, I think Ukraine might be waiting a long time for EU accession.
I don’t rule it out, in fact I suspect it will happen at some stage, but the accession of a country that
- is very poor - is very populous - has a massive corruption problem - has a totally unreformed agricultural sector - has a recent history of conflict with Russia
Changes the EU balance substantially.
But here’s an opportunity for the UK. We could offer something to Ukraine which is then mimicked by the EU, creating the “outer ring” along with EFTA.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
I would have thought it would be a multi-step process, with sanctions slowly ratcheted down as Russia proved it could be trusted and as they agreed (and paid) reparations.
Some sanctions - on military or technical equipment, though - might never be removed.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1504126165753212931 "Seems like Zelenskyy's video worked: U.S President Biden’s remarks on the ongoing Russian Invasion of Ukraine appear to have been Significantly Delayed... These are also reports that Poland and The United States have now come to an agreement on the transfer of MiG-29 Combat Aircraft to Ukraine as well which may be announced."
Also some excellent reporting from the WSJ over how a small town managed to destroy an entire Russian BTG with a few SOF w/anti-tank weapons: "Russian survivors of the Voznesensk battle left behind nearly 30 of their 43 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, multiple-rocket launchers and trucks, as well as a downed Mi-24 attack helicopter, according to Ukrainian officials in the city. The helicopter’s remnants and some pieces of burned-out Russian armor were still scattered around Voznesensk on Tuesday." https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-voznesensk-town-battle-11647444734?st=z24ubrmo2xi9bq1&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
Neutral like Sweden sounds pretty solid to me. I mean, technically a Russian invasion (presumably via Finland to which same point applies) would be indistinguishable from their invading Ukraine and subject to the same nothing to do with us guv arguments from NATO, but it would feel a lot different in that Sweden is Western Europe and somewhere we have all heard of and know isn't part of Russia and never was.
Charles XII march on Moscow is anothe up-there-with-Putin debacle btw. Theme emerging.
Neutral like Sweden sounds pretty solid to me. I mean, technically a Russian invasion (presumably via Finland to which same point applies) would be indistinguishable from their invading Ukraine and subject to the same nothing to do with us guv arguments from NATO, but it would feel a lot different in that Sweden is Western Europe and somewhere we have all heard of and know isn't part of Russia and never was.
Charles XII march on Moscow is anothe up-there-with-Putin debacle btw. Theme emerging.
The skies over central London have gone from queasy yellow to suitably apocalyptic grey-black, as the sheeting rain pours down
Hmm
There's sand all over the place - amazing.
Remnants of a sandstorm from the Sahara?
This is what I'm hearing. Sand has blown all the way from the Sahara to Hampstead. Absolutely remarkable state of affairs. You don't need God to find wonder in the world.
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
As it happens, I think Ukraine might be waiting a long time for EU accession.
I don’t rule it out, in fact I suspect it will happen at some stage, but the accession of a country that
- is very poor - is very populous - has a massive corruption problem - has a totally unreformed agricultural sector - has a recent history of conflict with Russia
Changes the EU balance substantially.
But here’s an opportunity for the UK. We could offer something to Ukraine which is then mimicked by the EU, creating the “outer ring” along with EFTA.
For that option to have any long-term appeal, it would have to be more than simply an "outer ring" but instead be based on a different model.
Even with sanctions removed, Russia remains a massive reputational risk. It will take a decade at least to shake that off.
Also the West, and Europe in particular, will not accept being dependent on Russia for more than a quarter of its oil and gas. This is about risk reduction, not sanctions. I think there has been a step change, unlike 2014.
Concerning Ukraine's membership of the EU, I think it will be difficult for Ukraine to get membership any time soon. I am guessing a strengthening of the Partnership Agreement in the short term.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1504126165753212931 "Seems like Zelenskyy's video worked: U.S President Biden’s remarks on the ongoing Russian Invasion of Ukraine appear to have been Significantly Delayed... These are also reports that Poland and The United States have now come to an agreement on the transfer of MiG-29 Combat Aircraft to Ukraine as well which may be announced."
Also some excellent reporting from the WSJ over how a small town managed to destroy an entire Russian BTG with a few SOF w/anti-tank weapons: "Russian survivors of the Voznesensk battle left behind nearly 30 of their 43 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, multiple-rocket launchers and trucks, as well as a downed Mi-24 attack helicopter, according to Ukrainian officials in the city. The helicopter’s remnants and some pieces of burned-out Russian armor were still scattered around Voznesensk on Tuesday." https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-voznesensk-town-battle-11647444734?st=z24ubrmo2xi9bq1&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
I'm wondering if all these Neptune missiles that have not appeared are stashed somewhere useful.
The skies over central London have gone from queasy yellow to suitably apocalyptic grey-black, as the sheeting rain pours down
Hmm
There's sand all over the place - amazing.
Remnants of a sandstorm from the Sahara?
This is what I'm hearing. Sand has blown all the way from the Sahara to Hampstead. Absolutely remarkable state of affairs. You don't need God to find wonder in the world.
The skies over central London have gone from queasy yellow to suitably apocalyptic grey-black, as the sheeting rain pours down
Hmm
There's sand all over the place - amazing.
Remnants of a sandstorm from the Sahara?
This is what I'm hearing. Sand has blown all the way from the Sahara to Hampstead. Absolutely remarkable state of affairs. You don't need God to find wonder in the world.
Lived through one of those as a kid in Cyprus. About ½" of brown red sand covering over absolutely everything.
There is historical presidence for a country joining the EU with an ongoing territorial dispute . This being Cyprus although at that point there was not an ongoing conflict and of course Greece threatened to veto any further Eastern Europe EU expansion unless it was admitted . Not sure the EU would want to repeat that example.
Although the EU doesn’t have an Article 5 for Cyprus the threat from a further Turkish invasion has diminished as a result of being an EU member .
And with time it’s likely that the EU will adopt something similar .
Let us assume that the peace deal is signed, and the world steps back from nuclear apocalypse. (Which would be a positive.)
Does Putin survive?
I mean, sure, he'll spin this as a victory. But it will be obvious to all but the most deluded that he will have spent an awful lot of money and lives on achieving the enmity of most of the world. Russian firms will probably continue to be under sanctions for some time. And Europe will continue to pivot away from Russian energy.
Plus, of course, all but the most loony of his foreign "useful idiots" will have deserted him.
I guess there are no obvious successors to him, and he runs a fairly vicious police state, so maybe he can continue. But he will have been dramatically weakened.
Nord Stream 2 will still be dead. The US has always opposed it.
Even if the Germans demand it is re-instated (and they may well not), why would the US unwind the sanctions that make it impossible?
Nord Stream 2 ain't coming back.
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
The Russians will demand Nord Stream 2
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
My own view is that any deal between Russia and Ukraine should not include lifting Western sanctions. The Russians need to be punished and Putin needs to be gone or at some point in the very near future he will just do the same thing again. I would be very worried if I were one of the 'Stans if Putin gets out of this ahead of where he went in.
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
How much do you want to bet?
- Russia will demand it. - Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
I'm thinking that Stop the War have perhaps irrevocably pokered their backside on this one.
The skies over central London have gone from queasy yellow to suitably apocalyptic grey-black, as the sheeting rain pours down
Hmm
There's sand all over the place - amazing.
Remnants of a sandstorm from the Sahara?
This is what I'm hearing. Sand has blown all the way from the Sahara to Hampstead. Absolutely remarkable state of affairs. You don't need God to find wonder in the world.
Doesn't this happen regularly. I recall it numerous times on the weather forecast and then seeing yellow dust on the car the next day.
There is however a certain irony in the fact that destabilisation of electricity supplies by gradual detachment from the European Grid is one of the levers currently being used by Brussels to try and force Switzerland to do what the EuCo wants it to do.
Hang on, it’s only 24 hours since @kle snottily upbraided me for suggesting a deal might prohibit NATO but allow EU.
I don't recall that. I would have been sceptical the Russians would accept that given their reasoning about blocs but I've suggested myself that the Ukrainians might be willing to concede the NATO point (since it wasn't happening anyway) if they can keep the EU point. So if i was snotty it was not intentional or i was oddly grumpy and I apologise.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
What do the US Navy or a Marshall of the Royal Air Force know when put up against the intellectual might of a Parish Councillor from Epping who's never seen a rifle or looked at any war in history?
But, that's true of all military campaigns. They'd all fail, if everything that could go wrong did go wrong.
Without wanting to go over the last thread all over again I looked up some stuff on the Falklands War regarding @HYUFD comment on it being easy.
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
What do the US Navy or a Marshall of the Royal Air Force know when put up against the intellectual might of a Parish Councillor from Epping who's never seen a rifle or looked at any war in history?
Noit fair. HYUFD probably got his time done in the CCF at his grammar school, and that includes rifles.
As it happens, I think Ukraine might be waiting a long time for EU accession.
I don’t rule it out, in fact I suspect it will happen at some stage, but the accession of a country that
- is very poor - is very populous - has a massive corruption problem - has a totally unreformed agricultural sector - has a recent history of conflict with Russia
Changes the EU balance substantially.
But here’s an opportunity for the UK. We could offer something to Ukraine which is then mimicked by the EU, creating the “outer ring” along with EFTA.
For that option to have any long-term appeal, it would have to be more than simply an "outer ring" but instead be based on a different model.
Yes, I don’t like the term outer ring. I just couldn’t think of a better description.
As it happens, I think Ukraine might be waiting a long time for EU accession.
I don’t rule it out, in fact I suspect it will happen at some stage, but the accession of a country that
- is very poor - is very populous - has a massive corruption problem - has a totally unreformed agricultural sector - has a recent history of conflict with Russia
Changes the EU balance substantially.
But here’s an opportunity for the UK. We could offer something to Ukraine which is then mimicked by the EU, creating the “outer ring” along with EFTA.
For that option to have any long-term appeal, it would have to be more than simply an "outer ring" but instead be based on a different model.
If this is true and this peace holds I will literally open champagne. We have come so close to global disaster
Ins'allah!!
I'd be torn between opening champagne/ESW with the relief that we all live to fight another day, and bitterly regretting the fact Putin remains at large. Until his death or final complete defeat Europe won't be safe.
Who knows if this peace will happen, who knows if the Russians will stick to it (and it's not just a feint etc), but if it is real and it does stick then I'd say this is a major step towards the End of Putin.
He's 69, and he's totally fucked his country's economy, for absolutely no gain at all. There will be a reckoning. His many rich friends will not be happy holidaying in Pyongyang for the rest of time
There will be a gain, though, I think. East Ukraine and Crimea recognized as part of Russia. West Ukraine independent but unaligned. No EU, no NATO. Isn't that where it's heading?
You mean the small separatist regions in the East? They are - it should be noted - tiny.
From the details leaked to the FT, EU membership appears to still be on the table. Whether the EU will want to accept - with the consequent massive financial obligations - Ukraine as a member is another question altogether.
I would hope that the West (and this would be a great opportunity for the EU to lead) will help with the rebuilding of the Ukraine. And I would expect that - absent regime change in Moscow - we will demand help from Russia in paying for it.
In the event Ukraine applying for membership, I would bet my house and my children against their being refused.
The question is how long the EU would string out the process. Ukraine has been refused candidate status for 17 years.
If the political will is there on both sides to truly change the country, and generous moneys provided to help them change, then it could be a quicker process than feared, but it's still clearly an arduous process they are not going to breeze through even if they genuinely work for it.
France in particular will be very ambivalent about Ukrainian membership. It will be a threat to their agricultural interests and mark the definitive end of their long-standing aspiration to negotiate an alternative security partnership with Russia.
France and Russia have a long history of friendship.
But Macron in particular has been pretty bruised by this, and has been well ahead of Germany and Italy (albeit behind the UK) in providing support to Ukraine.
So I suspect the "alternative security partnership" is dead, so long as as Macron and Putin remain heads of their respective governments.
Simply, Russia is the big, bad enemy of NATO again.
(Also worth remembering that France's defence industry is a massive winner from a new cold war.)
What I don't understand is why a country like India buys all this military kit from Russia. Is it cheap or something?
Comments
Are they assembling enough for a major offensive somewhere? and when?
Hmm
Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
@IAPonomarenko
Russia is now in no position to demand from Ukraine anything other than letting Putin save his face and withdraw to the February 24 status quo.
With its economy collapsing and its military in Ukraine running out of capabilities and reserves, Moscow faces nothing promising.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1504114682621222921
Might bring some interesting critters with it. Or it might just cover your car in a sand dune.
But have managed over the years, not to destroy each other.
War is an evil thing, but to submit to the dictation of other states is worse...Freedom, if we hold fast to it, will ultimately restore our losses, but submission will mean permanent loss of all that we value...To you who call yourselves men of peace I say: you are not safe unless you have men of action on your side.
I'm sure I'd grasp at any option to end fighting (or be a collaborator), but how much even Zelensky can sell as the price for peace, with an enemy who is an untrustworthy liar, to his people? Who knows.
Seemed to be stalking Shiskin this time. Determined tactic.
This is a sequence of clash between these two that’s going to run.
"Your kit? Your weapons? Oh no, they stay...."
Waves in another tractor....
The Germans thought they had entered into a pact with Russia: money for being (vaguely) compliant with the world order, and no threat to supplies.
Over the winter, the Russians started to renege on this: they deliberately reduced supplies to Europe with the intention that the continent in general (and Germany in particular) would be very short gas come February.
And then they invaded Ukraine.
Suddenly, two things that the Germans thought they could rely on disappeared*.
And you can't put that back in the box. Irrespective of what happens in Ukraine, Germany is rearming and is diversifying its energy supplies.
* It turns out though, that they can still rely on the treachery of Gerhard Schroder
Notable that the West has been providing essentially only defensive equipment, rather than the material that would be required for an offensive to retake the Donbas.
Wait for the little voices to pipe-up about how being against Nord Stream 2 is to be Against Peace.
But they can inflict massive casualties on Russian troops via antitank weapons and snipers. It makes holding territory incredibly difficult for the Russians.
@ZelenskyyUa
Ukraine gained a complete victory in its case against Russia at the International Court of Justice. The ICJ ordered to immediately stop the invasion. The order is binding under international law. Russia must comply immediately. Ignoring the order will isolate Russia even further
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1504120775749550081
What are you going to do with your new Iranian friends now? You’ve invited them round for dinner.
Here they are on the doorstep.
At least we never welch on a debt, and never been stupid enough to reward and encourage bad things by paying a ransom 🤨
The US Navy assessed that a successful counter invasion was impossible
Lord Craig stated that if just 6 of the 13 bomb fuses that failed because the Argentine Hawks were flying too low had detonated we would have lost
And that is ignoring the threat of the exocets getting past the destroyers and frigates which suffered badly protecting the carriers.
But hey ho just a cake walk.
Charles XII march on Moscow is anothe up-there-with-Putin debacle btw. Theme emerging.
https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/europe-connects-its-power-grid-to-ukraine-and-moldova/
Well done the EU!
And it is hard to see Russia being much of a donor of military toys to its puppet states for a few years yet.
Compared to Versailles, there are nearly two orders of magnitude difference, and the comparison is not apposite at this point.
In the case of post-WW1, France / Italy wanted very large reparations, the UK lower. In the event it came out at 300-600% of German GDP, depending on dates and estimates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_reparations#Reparations
The current estimated cost for the damage caused by this 3 week war are of the order of $100+bn at the low end.
Russia has a GDP of ~$1500bn, and Government Reserves of $600bn - with a big chunk in foreign currencies, and another big chunk in gold.
Russia is 7-10% of GDP roughly, Germany 200-600% of GDP.
So that bill can be met from a fraction of Government reserves - an entirely possible number.
And that will not destroy Russia.
It was Brazil the Toebbes were trying to sell submarine secrets to, not France like everyone thought
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1504112897823289349
Every little helps.
And somehow England are only one down...
We impose sanctions on various Middle Eastern countries because of the threat they pose rather than because they are actively invading someone. The same should apply to Russia. Lifting them just because they decide they can't win and so look for a painless way out should not be on the table.
(btw - anyone who doesn't subscribe to the FT, it's the last bastion of old-fashioned good journalism and I warmly recommend it)
Schubert got there first of course..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovozgp1PJVI
A ) they have a second tier of paywall for their most interesting stuff.
And
B ) it’s dead easy to jump over their main paywall, by copy/pasting a link into a private window, do a Google search and then click through.
So I cancelled my sub.
Great journalism, but they’ve got their paywall model all wrong.
Small regions that voted to stay in Ukraine in the only free referendum held. I think in 1993.
- Russia will demand it.
- Stop The War will be protesting about the sanctions 10 minutes after.
Its not natural.
But Macron in particular has been pretty bruised by this, and has been well ahead of Germany and Italy (albeit behind the UK) in providing support to Ukraine.
So I suspect the "alternative security partnership" is dead, so long as as Macron and Putin remain heads of their respective governments.
Simply, Russia is the big, bad enemy of NATO again.
(Also worth remembering that France's defence industry is a massive winner from a new cold war.)
They show best with a low sun, too. I'm not sure that's what Roger Waters was referring to, mind.
I don’t rule it out, in fact I suspect it will happen at some stage, but the accession of a country that
- is very poor
- is very populous
- has a massive corruption problem
- has a totally unreformed agricultural sector
- has a recent history of conflict with Russia
Changes the EU balance substantially.
But here’s an opportunity for the UK.
We could offer something to Ukraine which is then mimicked by the EU, creating the “outer ring” along with EFTA.
Some sanctions - on military or technical equipment, though - might never be removed.
The Russians have now reportedly withdrawn from Kherson airport.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1504126165753212931
"Seems like Zelenskyy's video worked: U.S President Biden’s remarks on the ongoing Russian Invasion of Ukraine appear to have been Significantly Delayed... These are also reports that Poland and The United States have now come to an agreement on the transfer of MiG-29 Combat Aircraft to Ukraine as well which may be announced."
Also some excellent reporting from the WSJ over how a small town managed to destroy an entire Russian BTG with a few SOF w/anti-tank weapons:
"Russian survivors of the Voznesensk battle left behind nearly 30 of their 43 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, multiple-rocket launchers and trucks, as well as a downed Mi-24 attack helicopter, according to Ukrainian officials in the city. The helicopter’s remnants and some pieces of burned-out Russian armor were still scattered around Voznesensk on Tuesday."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-voznesensk-town-battle-11647444734?st=z24ubrmo2xi9bq1&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
They seem to be back to the lunatic core.
Also the West, and Europe in particular, will not accept being dependent on Russia for more than a quarter of its oil and gas. This is about risk reduction, not sanctions. I think there has been a step change, unlike 2014.
Concerning Ukraine's membership of the EU, I think it will be difficult for Ukraine to get membership any time soon. I am guessing a strengthening of the Partnership Agreement in the short term.
Although the EU doesn’t have an Article 5 for Cyprus the threat from a further Turkish invasion has diminished as a result of being an EU member .
And with time it’s likely that the EU will adopt something similar .
There is however a certain irony in the fact that destabilisation of electricity supplies by gradual detachment from the European Grid is one of the levers currently being used by Brussels to try and force Switzerland to do what the EuCo wants it to do.
I just couldn’t think of a better description.
Perhaps PB geometricians can assist.