Rest of South Con 43% Lab 33% LD 14% Grn 5% Ref 2%
Midlands Con 42% Lab 39% LD 10% Gen 5% Ref 3%
North Lab 55% Con 30% LD 6% Grn 5% Ref 1%
Wales Lab 39% Con 32% PC 13% LD 7% Gen 5% Ref 2%
Scotland SNP 48% Lab 20% Con 17% LD 11% Grn 3% Ref -
(Sample Size: 2,003; Fieldwork: 8- 11 March 2022)
The Red Wall is almost certainly lost for the Tories now.
Looks like it. The opposition parties will have a conundrum in the South, though. On these figures there are a number of Blue Wall seats where the LibDems were second last time but Labour is now second by a fair margin. Unless there's a quiet deal, neither is going to ease off for the other in seats like that.
Yes, I can see that as a dilemma. In my seat it varies from election to election who is the main challenger.
The problem is that LAB is not good at taking Tory seats. The last LAB by-election gain from the Tories was in 2012
There's a whole swathe of seats in the home counties where Labour stand no chance, but the LDs may. Just look at the last election results in South Oxfordshire - went from 33/36 Con (w/ 1 being Con aligned Indy, 1 LD, 1 Lab) to 13 LD, 6 Grn (via a local pact w/LDs), 3 Residents, 9 Con. The issue will be whether LDs have the funding to mount serious campaigns in all these seats.
Or the membership numbers.
Vast swathes of Scotland are deserts for the Lib Dems. I’m assuming that their membership numbers must be very patchy in England too.
It can be very patchy. Overall LDs have their weakest position in the East Midlands, but even here there is control of Oadby and Wigston and strong representation on Harborough and Hinckley councils.
As such the proposed Blaby, Oadby and Wigston seat (all suburbs south of the city of Leicester) is likely to have LDs as the main challenger. Loughborough will still be the most marginal, and a Labour target. The remaining Leicestershire seats will be safe for either Labour (3) or Conservative (5) in anything other than an electoral catastrophe for one side or other.
Some context for the suggestion that Israel is currently a useful mediator in the war. (I’d also note that they supply drone tech to Russia which they refuse, along with any other weapons, to Ukraine.)
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
That doesn’t work.
He fails in an invasion. He doesn’t get to rebuild and try again. He must be seen to lose something.
A return to the status quo ante, if offered by the Russians now, would almost certainly be accepted. His gamble failing would be an enormous loss for Putin, with massive damage to his economy. What isn’t negotiable is Ukraine’s future as a sovereign state which isn’t controlled in any way by Russia. Rebuilding Ukraine will cost many hundreds of billions; that will be the more important issue.
Trigger warning - this has caused great offence in some Nat circles - for an article in a Student rag, no less, for which an apology has been extracted. Principle offence? The author is an English student at St Andrew’s.
Moral of the story, “don’t dish it out if you can’t take it…..”
I like to think of England and Scotland as a middle-aged couple living in the suburbs. The mutual hatred is palpable. They did a pretty good job with the children—the world’s sexiest Empire, modern Industry, and parliamentary democracy—but now the children are gone, and all that’s left is a menopausal Scotland, England (who’s having a midlife crisis), and the family dog, Wales. The cracks are beginning to show: England has just bought a Harley Davidson but no crash helmet (Brexit), and Scotland has turned to pills (Glasgow). Something has got to give—it’s been separate bedrooms since 1997 (or Devolution as they call it). Somebody needs to bite the bullet and move out. Scotland, incidentally, thinks it should be her: she wants to run away and join her French lover, Emmanuel McRon, in the sensual paradise of a Brussels Travelodge. Ideally, Scotland would quite like to fleece England for all he’s worth and leave him paying the mortgage (National Debt). England, meanwhile, is being a bit of a mug and still tries to make an effort once in a while—although Michael Gove in an Aberdeen nightclub didn’t really have the intended aphrodisiac effect.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
Trigger warning - this has caused great offence in some Nat circles - for an article in a Student rag, no less, for which an apology has been extracted. Principle offence? The author is an English student at St Andrew’s.
Moral of the story, “don’t dish it out if you can’t take it…..”
I like to think of England and Scotland as a middle-aged couple living in the suburbs. The mutual hatred is palpable. They did a pretty good job with the children—the world’s sexiest Empire, modern Industry, and parliamentary democracy—but now the children are gone, and all that’s left is a menopausal Scotland, England (who’s having a midlife crisis), and the family dog, Wales. The cracks are beginning to show: England has just bought a Harley Davidson but no crash helmet (Brexit), and Scotland has turned to pills (Glasgow). Something has got to give—it’s been separate bedrooms since 1997 (or Devolution as they call it). Somebody needs to bite the bullet and move out. Scotland, incidentally, thinks it should be her: she wants to run away and join her French lover, Emmanuel McRon, in the sensual paradise of a Brussels Travelodge. Ideally, Scotland would quite like to fleece England for all he’s worth and leave him paying the mortgage (National Debt). England, meanwhile, is being a bit of a mug and still tries to make an effort once in a while—although Michael Gove in an Aberdeen nightclub didn’t really have the intended aphrodisiac effect.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
Trigger warning - this has caused great offence in some Nat circles - for an article in a Student rag, no less, for which an apology has been extracted. Principle offence? The author is an English student at St Andrew’s.
Moral of the story, “don’t dish it out if you can’t take it…..”
I like to think of England and Scotland as a middle-aged couple living in the suburbs. The mutual hatred is palpable. They did a pretty good job with the children—the world’s sexiest Empire, modern Industry, and parliamentary democracy—but now the children are gone, and all that’s left is a menopausal Scotland, England (who’s having a midlife crisis), and the family dog, Wales. The cracks are beginning to show: England has just bought a Harley Davidson but no crash helmet (Brexit), and Scotland has turned to pills (Glasgow). Something has got to give—it’s been separate bedrooms since 1997 (or Devolution as they call it). Somebody needs to bite the bullet and move out. Scotland, incidentally, thinks it should be her: she wants to run away and join her French lover, Emmanuel McRon, in the sensual paradise of a Brussels Travelodge. Ideally, Scotland would quite like to fleece England for all he’s worth and leave him paying the mortgage (National Debt). England, meanwhile, is being a bit of a mug and still tries to make an effort once in a while—although Michael Gove in an Aberdeen nightclub didn’t really have the intended aphrodisiac effect.
I thought it truthful (both on a personable scale and a national scale) , funny , clever and inventive. No wonder the Great Offended got offended.
BTW I am in that position personable having agreed to split with my wife in Jan - Just waiting my daughter to do her A-levels and go to university - Put the house on the market yesterday - Looking forward to a new phase in life and wont feel guilty either (as we have both done our parent duties (as article above) and both had enough of each other (or at least living with each other!)
Trigger warning - this has caused great offence in some Nat circles - for an article in a Student rag, no less, for which an apology has been extracted. Principle offence? The author is an English student at St Andrew’s.
Moral of the story, “don’t dish it out if you can’t take it…..”
I like to think of England and Scotland as a middle-aged couple living in the suburbs. The mutual hatred is palpable. They did a pretty good job with the children—the world’s sexiest Empire, modern Industry, and parliamentary democracy—but now the children are gone, and all that’s left is a menopausal Scotland, England (who’s having a midlife crisis), and the family dog, Wales. The cracks are beginning to show: England has just bought a Harley Davidson but no crash helmet (Brexit), and Scotland has turned to pills (Glasgow). Something has got to give—it’s been separate bedrooms since 1997 (or Devolution as they call it). Somebody needs to bite the bullet and move out. Scotland, incidentally, thinks it should be her: she wants to run away and join her French lover, Emmanuel McRon, in the sensual paradise of a Brussels Travelodge. Ideally, Scotland would quite like to fleece England for all he’s worth and leave him paying the mortgage (National Debt). England, meanwhile, is being a bit of a mug and still tries to make an effort once in a while—although Michael Gove in an Aberdeen nightclub didn’t really have the intended aphrodisiac effect.
Whoever wrote this has a future as a writer. Not sure whether it's journalism, political commentating or something else, but I hope someone influential has got their eye on whoever it is.
Trigger warning - this has caused great offence in some Nat circles - for an article in a Student rag, no less, for which an apology has been extracted. Principle offence? The author is an English student at St Andrew’s.
Moral of the story, “don’t dish it out if you can’t take it…..”
I like to think of England and Scotland as a middle-aged couple living in the suburbs. The mutual hatred is palpable. They did a pretty good job with the children—the world’s sexiest Empire, modern Industry, and parliamentary democracy—but now the children are gone, and all that’s left is a menopausal Scotland, England (who’s having a midlife crisis), and the family dog, Wales. The cracks are beginning to show: England has just bought a Harley Davidson but no crash helmet (Brexit), and Scotland has turned to pills (Glasgow). Something has got to give—it’s been separate bedrooms since 1997 (or Devolution as they call it). Somebody needs to bite the bullet and move out. Scotland, incidentally, thinks it should be her: she wants to run away and join her French lover, Emmanuel McRon, in the sensual paradise of a Brussels Travelodge. Ideally, Scotland would quite like to fleece England for all he’s worth and leave him paying the mortgage (National Debt). England, meanwhile, is being a bit of a mug and still tries to make an effort once in a while—although Michael Gove in an Aberdeen nightclub didn’t really have the intended aphrodisiac effect.
Video analysis reveals Russian attack on Ukrainian nuclear plant veered near disaster https://www.npr.org/2022/03/11/1085427380/ukraine-nuclear-power-plant-zaporizhzhia?t=1647073206935 …A thorough review of a four-hour, 21-minute security camera video of the attack reveals that Russian forces repeatedly fired heavy weapons in the direction of the plant's massive reactor buildings, which housed dangerous nuclear fuel. Photos show that an administrative building directly in front of the reactor complex was shredded by Russian fire. And a video from inside the plant shows damage and a possible Russian shell that landed less than 250 feet from the Unit 2 reactor building.
The security camera footage also shows Russian troops haphazardly firing rocket-propelled grenades into the main administrative building at the plant and turning away Ukrainian firefighters even as a fire raged out of control in a nearby training building…
Some context for the suggestion that Israel is currently a useful mediator in the war. (I’d also note that they supply drone tech to Russia which they refuse, along with any other weapons, to Ukraine.)
I wonder how the US government feels about this? Am I being too cynical in thinking that the America might be encouraging the Israelis?
Probably; if Biden really felt that way, he wouldn’t have supplied so much materiel. The US just voted through Biden’s package of around $13bn of aid to Ukraine. The Netanyahu government got quite cosy with Putin for years, and I doubt the current U.S. administration is particularly happy about that. The previous one, of course….
Ukraine doesn't get $13bn in their PayPal on Monday. It'll be drizzled in as circumstances require.
The best outcome for the US is a European Afghanistan that enervates Russia, both politically and economically, while keeping the EU in a state of constant anxiety which causes them to start taking care of their own security.
Trigger warning - this has caused great offence in some Nat circles - for an article in a Student rag, no less, for which an apology has been extracted. Principle offence? The author is an English student at St Andrew’s.
Moral of the story, “don’t dish it out if you can’t take it…..”
I like to think of England and Scotland as a middle-aged couple living in the suburbs. The mutual hatred is palpable. They did a pretty good job with the children—the world’s sexiest Empire, modern Industry, and parliamentary democracy—but now the children are gone, and all that’s left is a menopausal Scotland, England (who’s having a midlife crisis), and the family dog, Wales. The cracks are beginning to show: England has just bought a Harley Davidson but no crash helmet (Brexit), and Scotland has turned to pills (Glasgow). Something has got to give—it’s been separate bedrooms since 1997 (or Devolution as they call it). Somebody needs to bite the bullet and move out. Scotland, incidentally, thinks it should be her: she wants to run away and join her French lover, Emmanuel McRon, in the sensual paradise of a Brussels Travelodge. Ideally, Scotland would quite like to fleece England for all he’s worth and leave him paying the mortgage (National Debt). England, meanwhile, is being a bit of a mug and still tries to make an effort once in a while—although Michael Gove in an Aberdeen nightclub didn’t really have the intended aphrodisiac effect.
I thought it truthful (both on a personable scale and a national scale) , funny , clever and inventive. No wonder the Great Offended got offended.
BTW I am in that position personable having agreed to split with my wife in Jan - Just waiting my daughter to do her A-levels and go to university - Put the house on the market yesterday - Looking forward to a new phase in life and wont feel guilty either (as we have both done our parent duties (as article above) and both had enough of each other (or at least living with each other!)
Best wishes for the future to both of you, although after (almost) 60 years of marriage I find the idea of splitting up unimaginable.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
On the contrary, I think there is a major lack of progress for the Russian forces at Kyiv, and Ukraine seems to have prevented encirclement from west and south. The counter attacks to the east of Kyiv in the direction of Chernihiv start to make the Russian forces look very exposed, particularly as their supply lines are very insecure.*
I think a disorderly Russian retreat from Kyiv could well be forced over the next 2 weeks, releasing a lot of Ukranian forces for the southern front. Retaking that will be difficult against Russian forces, as the Ukranian forces lack heavy weapons.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
R4 Rose Gottermuller, former Deputy Secretary General, NATO, explains history of Ukrainian “biolabs” started life as Soviet weapons labs and the US involvement with Ukraine has been to decommission the weapons use and turn them to peaceful purposes (crop diseases and so forth).
Some context for the suggestion that Israel is currently a useful mediator in the war. (I’d also note that they supply drone tech to Russia which they refuse, along with any other weapons, to Ukraine.)
I wonder how the US government feels about this? Am I being too cynical in thinking that the America might be encouraging the Israelis?
Probably; if Biden really felt that way, he wouldn’t have supplied so much materiel. The US just voted through Biden’s package of around $13bn of aid to Ukraine. The Netanyahu government got quite cosy with Putin for years, and I doubt the current U.S. administration is particularly happy about that. The previous one, of course….
Ukraine doesn't get $13bn in their PayPal on Monday. It'll be drizzled in as circumstances require.
The best outcome for the US is a European Afghanistan that enervates Russia, both politically and economically, while keeping the EU in a state of constant anxiety which causes them to start taking care of their own security.
And so far, it’s looking as if that’s exactly what they’re going to get.
Trigger warning - this has caused great offence in some Nat circles - for an article in a Student rag, no less, for which an apology has been extracted. Principle offence? The author is an English student at St Andrew’s.
Moral of the story, “don’t dish it out if you can’t take it…..”
I like to think of England and Scotland as a middle-aged couple living in the suburbs. The mutual hatred is palpable. They did a pretty good job with the children—the world’s sexiest Empire, modern Industry, and parliamentary democracy—but now the children are gone, and all that’s left is a menopausal Scotland, England (who’s having a midlife crisis), and the family dog, Wales. The cracks are beginning to show: England has just bought a Harley Davidson but no crash helmet (Brexit), and Scotland has turned to pills (Glasgow). Something has got to give—it’s been separate bedrooms since 1997 (or Devolution as they call it). Somebody needs to bite the bullet and move out. Scotland, incidentally, thinks it should be her: she wants to run away and join her French lover, Emmanuel McRon, in the sensual paradise of a Brussels Travelodge. Ideally, Scotland would quite like to fleece England for all he’s worth and leave him paying the mortgage (National Debt). England, meanwhile, is being a bit of a mug and still tries to make an effort once in a while—although Michael Gove in an Aberdeen nightclub didn’t really have the intended aphrodisiac effect.
I thought it truthful (both on a personable scale and a national scale) , funny , clever and inventive. No wonder the Great Offended got offended.
BTW I am in that position personable having agreed to split with my wife in Jan - Just waiting my daughter to do her A-levels and go to university - Put the house on the market yesterday - Looking forward to a new phase in life and wont feel guilty either (as we have both done our parent duties (as article above) and both had enough of each other (or at least living with each other!)
Not gone through it myself but I know my brother and former sister-in-law are a lot happier now than when they were trying to “save their marriage”. Good luck!
Trigger warning - this has caused great offence in some Nat circles - for an article in a Student rag, no less, for which an apology has been extracted. Principle offence? The author is an English student at St Andrew’s.
Moral of the story, “don’t dish it out if you can’t take it…..”
I like to think of England and Scotland as a middle-aged couple living in the suburbs. The mutual hatred is palpable. They did a pretty good job with the children—the world’s sexiest Empire, modern Industry, and parliamentary democracy—but now the children are gone, and all that’s left is a menopausal Scotland, England (who’s having a midlife crisis), and the family dog, Wales. The cracks are beginning to show: England has just bought a Harley Davidson but no crash helmet (Brexit), and Scotland has turned to pills (Glasgow). Something has got to give—it’s been separate bedrooms since 1997 (or Devolution as they call it). Somebody needs to bite the bullet and move out. Scotland, incidentally, thinks it should be her: she wants to run away and join her French lover, Emmanuel McRon, in the sensual paradise of a Brussels Travelodge. Ideally, Scotland would quite like to fleece England for all he’s worth and leave him paying the mortgage (National Debt). England, meanwhile, is being a bit of a mug and still tries to make an effort once in a while—although Michael Gove in an Aberdeen nightclub didn’t really have the intended aphrodisiac effect.
I thought it truthful (both on a personable scale and a national scale) , funny , clever and inventive. No wonder the Great Offended got offended.
BTW I am in that position personable having agreed to split with my wife in Jan - Just waiting my daughter to do her A-levels and go to university - Put the house on the market yesterday - Looking forward to a new phase in life and wont feel guilty either (as we have both done our parent duties (as article above) and both had enough of each other (or at least living with each other!)
Sorry to hear it. Children leaving home and parents going back to being a couple again, and one where both parties are different to a quarter century before is a difficult one to navigate. I hope it works out.
Some context for the suggestion that Israel is currently a useful mediator in the war. (I’d also note that they supply drone tech to Russia which they refuse, along with any other weapons, to Ukraine.)
I wonder how the US government feels about this? Am I being too cynical in thinking that the America might be encouraging the Israelis?
Probably; if Biden really felt that way, he wouldn’t have supplied so much materiel. The US just voted through Biden’s package of around $13bn of aid to Ukraine. The Netanyahu government got quite cosy with Putin for years, and I doubt the current U.S. administration is particularly happy about that. The previous one, of course….
Ukraine doesn't get $13bn in their PayPal on Monday. It'll be drizzled in as circumstances require.
The best outcome for the US is a European Afghanistan that enervates Russia, both politically and economically, while keeping the EU in a state of constant anxiety which causes them to start taking care of their own security.
On your first point, of course. On the second, I disagree, but we will see.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
Early in the war an R4 retired military commentator rated morale as three times more important than equipment.
Probably. Despite the regular scepticism, Ukraine seem relatively honest in their war reports. These are tactical wins, though. They matter, but are not (for now) decisive.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
On the contrary, I think there is a major lack of progress for the Russian forces at Kyiv, and Ukraine seems to have prevented encirclement from west and south. The counter attacks to the east of Kyiv in the direction of Chernihiv start to make the Russian forces look very exposed, particularly as their supply lines are very insecure.*
I think a disorderly Russian retreat from Kyiv could well be forced over the next 2 weeks, releasing a lot of Ukranian forces for the southern front. Retaking that will be difficult against Russian forces, as the Ukranian forces lack heavy weapons.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
Analysis in Telegraph argues it will be very hard for RU to take Kyiv with the troop numbers they have. Maybe this is why Belorussia are being 'leveraged' into the war by foul means?
Could be some kind of stalemate soon.
Or Putin just goes chemical and orders mass genocide.
There is no way of knowing what will happen to be honest.
Some context for the suggestion that Israel is currently a useful mediator in the war. (I’d also note that they supply drone tech to Russia which they refuse, along with any other weapons, to Ukraine.)
I wonder how the US government feels about this? Am I being too cynical in thinking that the America might be encouraging the Israelis?
Probably; if Biden really felt that way, he wouldn’t have supplied so much materiel. The US just voted through Biden’s package of around $13bn of aid to Ukraine. The Netanyahu government got quite cosy with Putin for years, and I doubt the current U.S. administration is particularly happy about that. The previous one, of course….
Ukraine doesn't get $13bn in their PayPal on Monday. It'll be drizzled in as circumstances require.
The best outcome for the US is a European Afghanistan that enervates Russia, both politically and economically, while keeping the EU in a state of constant anxiety which causes them to start taking care of their own security.
And so far, it’s looking as if that’s exactly what they’re going to get.
Some context for the suggestion that Israel is currently a useful mediator in the war. (I’d also note that they supply drone tech to Russia which they refuse, along with any other weapons, to Ukraine.)
I wonder how the US government feels about this? Am I being too cynical in thinking that the America might be encouraging the Israelis?
Probably; if Biden really felt that way, he wouldn’t have supplied so much materiel. The US just voted through Biden’s package of around $13bn of aid to Ukraine. The Netanyahu government got quite cosy with Putin for years, and I doubt the current U.S. administration is particularly happy about that. The previous one, of course….
Ukraine doesn't get $13bn in their PayPal on Monday. It'll be drizzled in as circumstances require.
The best outcome for the US is a European Afghanistan that enervates Russia, both politically and economically, while keeping the EU in a state of constant anxiety which causes them to start taking care of their own security.
Yes, I think this is where things are heading in Ukraine. Terrible for them, but the reinvention of Europe would be no bad thing.
Trigger warning - this has caused great offence in some Nat circles - for an article in a Student rag, no less, for which an apology has been extracted. Principle offence? The author is an English student at St Andrew’s.
Moral of the story, “don’t dish it out if you can’t take it…..”
I like to think of England and Scotland as a middle-aged couple living in the suburbs. The mutual hatred is palpable. They did a pretty good job with the children—the world’s sexiest Empire, modern Industry, and parliamentary democracy—but now the children are gone, and all that’s left is a menopausal Scotland, England (who’s having a midlife crisis), and the family dog, Wales. The cracks are beginning to show: England has just bought a Harley Davidson but no crash helmet (Brexit), and Scotland has turned to pills (Glasgow). Something has got to give—it’s been separate bedrooms since 1997 (or Devolution as they call it). Somebody needs to bite the bullet and move out. Scotland, incidentally, thinks it should be her: she wants to run away and join her French lover, Emmanuel McRon, in the sensual paradise of a Brussels Travelodge. Ideally, Scotland would quite like to fleece England for all he’s worth and leave him paying the mortgage (National Debt). England, meanwhile, is being a bit of a mug and still tries to make an effort once in a while—although Michael Gove in an Aberdeen nightclub didn’t really have the intended aphrodisiac effect.
Vasylkiv airfield, ammo cache, & oil depot hit by 8 Russian missiles at 7am, Vasylkiv Mayor Natalia Balasynovych tells me. “Airbase is completely destroyed,” she said. @BuzzFeedNews was at scene. There’re casualties but authorities sorting thru rubble, trying to put out fire. https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1502559536791834625
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
In an age of instant gratification, the fact that just 16 days in Russian has yet to decisively roll over the Ukraine is somehow being interpreted as Russia having "lost".
Timescales in major wars are not like that.
The historical precedent seems to me to be the timescale of the Soviet Ukraine offensive in the late Summer/Autumn of 1943 in the immediate aftermath of the German defeat in the Battle of Kursk. The Soviet Union bythen had decisive material superiority but it was anything but a cakewalk, with plenty of checks and local reverses. It took the Germans about 3 months between Kursk to advance from a similar starting point as now to a position where they were breaking out from bridgeheads on the other side of the Dnieper.
So, 3 months, not 16 days.
What matters is that Russia has overwhelming military force. The crux of the matter seems to me to hinge on whether, in the longer term, the US and Nato are willing to sanction supplies to the Ukrainians on a scale that can once again halt Russian efforts to renew their offensive and maintain the check in the longer term. Based on the backsliding witnessed over the past week, I am by no means convinced by that.
Probably. Despite the regular scepticism, Ukraine seem relatively honest in their war reports. These are tactical wins, though. They matter, but are not (for now) decisive.
The Ukrainians report their losses, which adds credibility to the reports of their wins:
Nice post @Quincel but has Stacey Abrams ever acknowledged that Kemp is the rightful Governor or is she still sticking to her line that she won the 2018 election. And before you quote what she has said about accepting the election, her wording makes it entirely clear she has never truly accepted the 2018 result.
Abram's position is that her campaign was unsuccessful but that she didn't concede as it wasn't a fair election. I'm not sure what you think that proves in relation to betting on the next election.
It's the longstanding attempt to equate what might be petulant reactions to loss and spiteful comments about it from some quarters, to the launching of dozens of legally ludicrous challenges (as shown by their outcomes) and actual members of congress refusing to certify legitimate election results they didn't like. These reactions were not equivalent.
The difference is only of degree.
Differences of degree are rather important.
Don't believe me? Go sunbathing on the beach when its -5 degrees and 30 degrees and see if the difference of degree seems significant.
Trigger warning - this has caused great offence in some Nat circles - for an article in a Student rag, no less, for which an apology has been extracted. Principle offence? The author is an English student at St Andrew’s.
Moral of the story, “don’t dish it out if you can’t take it…..”
I like to think of England and Scotland as a middle-aged couple living in the suburbs. The mutual hatred is palpable. They did a pretty good job with the children—the world’s sexiest Empire, modern Industry, and parliamentary democracy—but now the children are gone, and all that’s left is a menopausal Scotland, England (who’s having a midlife crisis), and the family dog, Wales. The cracks are beginning to show: England has just bought a Harley Davidson but no crash helmet (Brexit), and Scotland has turned to pills (Glasgow). Something has got to give—it’s been separate bedrooms since 1997 (or Devolution as they call it). Somebody needs to bite the bullet and move out. Scotland, incidentally, thinks it should be her: she wants to run away and join her French lover, Emmanuel McRon, in the sensual paradise of a Brussels Travelodge. Ideally, Scotland would quite like to fleece England for all he’s worth and leave him paying the mortgage (National Debt). England, meanwhile, is being a bit of a mug and still tries to make an effort once in a while—although Michael Gove in an Aberdeen nightclub didn’t really have the intended aphrodisiac effect.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
Early in the war an R4 retired military commentator rated morale as three times more important than equipment.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
Early in the war an R4 retired military commentator rated morale as three times more important than equipment.
And he was quoting or plagiarising Napoleon
"We will not discuss here if the line of the Ebro is good…. All these questions are pointless. We will content ourselves with saying that since we have taken the line of the Ebro, the troops can recover and rest, there is at least the advantage that the country is healthier, being more elevated, and we can wait there until the heat has passed. Above all, we must not abandon this line without a specific plan that leaves no uncertainty about subsequent operations. It would be a great misfortune to abandon this line and then later be obliged to retake it.
In war, three-quarters turns on personal character and relations; the balance of manpower and materials counts only for the remaining quarter."
(although his using his Spanish campaign to make his point perhaps wasn't the most fortuitous choice)
Somebody, can't remember who, asked about the mutual intelligibility of the Russian and Ukrainian languages last night. My partially informed (C1 Russian speaker, zero experience in Ukrainian) opinion is...
Excluding idiom, neologisms and slang they have about 80% commonality in vocabulary though with a surprising number of false friends. The alphabets are 90% common as both have 33 letters and each has 3 letters the other doesn't but there is no hard sign in Ukrainian. Grammar is almost the same but Russian has no past continuous tense.
I'd rate it about the same as Spanish/Portuguese. A native speaker of one could definitely make themselves understood to the other although almost all Ukranians have some knowledge of Russian.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
In an age of instant gratification, the fact that just 16 days in Russian has yet to decisively roll over the Ukraine is somehow being interpreted as Russia having "lost".
Timescales in major wars are not like that.
The historical precedent seems to me to be the timescale of the Soviet Ukraine offensive in the late Summer/Autumn of 1943 in the immediate aftermath of the German defeat in the Battle of Kursk. The Soviet Union bythen had decisive material superiority but it was anything but a cakewalk, with plenty of checks and local reverses. It took the Germans about 3 months between Kursk to advance from a similar starting point as now to a position where they were breaking out from bridgeheads on the other side of the Dnieper.
So, 3 months, not 16 days.
What matters is that Russia has overwhelming military force. The crux of the matter seems to me to hinge on whether, in the longer term, the US and Nato are willing to sanction supplies to the Ukrainians on a scale that can once again halt Russian efforts to renew their offensive and maintain the check in the longer term. Based on the backsliding witnessed over the past week, I am by no means convinced by that.
Sure, 16 days is not a long campaign but the difference to 1943 is that Russia does not have the reserves, logistics nor war economy to sustain a prolonged offensive. Resorting to shelling cities from a distance is a sign of military weakness, not strength.
One really striking thing about this war is how poor Russian command and control is. The initial days were scripted up to a year in advance, but the piecemeal and uncoordinated attacks since that plan stumbled suggest that there is no strategic plan left.
Somebody, can't remember who, asked about the mutual intelligibility of the Russian and Ukrainian languages last night. My partially informed (C1 Russian speaker, zero experience in Ukrainian) opinion is...
Excluding idiom, neologisms and slang they have about 80% commonality in vocabulary though with a surprising number of false friends. The alphabets are 90% common as both have 33 letters and each has 3 letters the other doesn't but there is no hard sign in Ukrainian. Grammar is almost the same but Russian has no past continuous tense.
I'd rate it about the same as Spanish/Portuguese. A native speaker of one could definitely make themselves understood to the other although almost all Ukranians have some knowledge of Russian.
Trigger warning - this has caused great offence in some Nat circles - for an article in a Student rag, no less, for which an apology has been extracted. Principle offence? The author is an English student at St Andrew’s.
Moral of the story, “don’t dish it out if you can’t take it…..”
I like to think of England and Scotland as a middle-aged couple living in the suburbs. The mutual hatred is palpable. They did a pretty good job with the children—the world’s sexiest Empire, modern Industry, and parliamentary democracy—but now the children are gone, and all that’s left is a menopausal Scotland, England (who’s having a midlife crisis), and the family dog, Wales. The cracks are beginning to show: England has just bought a Harley Davidson but no crash helmet (Brexit), and Scotland has turned to pills (Glasgow). Something has got to give—it’s been separate bedrooms since 1997 (or Devolution as they call it). Somebody needs to bite the bullet and move out. Scotland, incidentally, thinks it should be her: she wants to run away and join her French lover, Emmanuel McRon, in the sensual paradise of a Brussels Travelodge. Ideally, Scotland would quite like to fleece England for all he’s worth and leave him paying the mortgage (National Debt). England, meanwhile, is being a bit of a mug and still tries to make an effort once in a while—although Michael Gove in an Aberdeen nightclub didn’t really have the intended aphrodisiac effect.
Friday afternoons have been great for a while as Elis and Jon rolls into Wittertainment. Sad to lose Mark and Simon, but as you say they are surely going somewhere.
It is simply unacceptable for a senior lawyer such as @Keir_Starmer to so misstate the law on #WomensRights. He needs to take a look at threads from @BluskyeAllison & @legalfeminist & set the record straight.
Resorting to shelling cities from a distance is a sign of military weakness, not strength.
I don't think it's a sign of strength or weakness but a reversion to type. The Russian Army is an artillery army and massed long rage fires is how I and every other incorrect soi disant expert thought they would fight this war before it started. They'd be in a happier situation if they had, that's for sure.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
On the contrary, I think there is a major lack of progress for the Russian forces at Kyiv, and Ukraine seems to have prevented encirclement from west and south. The counter attacks to the east of Kyiv in the direction of Chernihiv start to make the Russian forces look very exposed, particularly as their supply lines are very insecure.*
I think a disorderly Russian retreat from Kyiv could well be forced over the next 2 weeks, releasing a lot of Ukranian forces for the southern front. Retaking that will be difficult against Russian forces, as the Ukranian forces lack heavy weapons.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
And you get this searing analysis from Twitter. Or do you have a Tac HQ set up in one of your several spare rooms.
You have absolutely no idea what is happening in Ukraine. You don't know how the overall campaign is going for either side. You post a video of a (supposedly) Russian platoon in a contact and make wild claims about how this shows how the war is going.
You are not alone on PB of course but you should know better. Or perhaps not.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
What matters is that Russia has overwhelming military force.
What is your actual evidence for this, though? Beyond claims about the theoretical strength of Russian conventional forces?
If you’re talking about their nuclear capability then sure, although quite how relevant that is for taking and holding Ukraine is debatable. But in terms of the practical strength of the conventional forces available to them on Ukraine, why are you convinced?
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
In an age of instant gratification, the fact that just 16 days in Russian has yet to decisively roll over the Ukraine is somehow being interpreted as Russia having "lost".
Timescales in major wars are not like that.
The historical precedent seems to me to be the timescale of the Soviet Ukraine offensive in the late Summer/Autumn of 1943 in the immediate aftermath of the German defeat in the Battle of Kursk. The Soviet Union bythen had decisive material superiority but it was anything but a cakewalk, with plenty of checks and local reverses. It took the Germans about 3 months between Kursk to advance from a similar starting point as now to a position where they were breaking out from bridgeheads on the other side of the Dnieper.
So, 3 months, not 16 days.
What matters is that Russia has overwhelming military force. The crux of the matter seems to me to hinge on whether, in the longer term, the US and Nato are willing to sanction supplies to the Ukrainians on a scale that can once again halt Russian efforts to renew their offensive and maintain the check in the longer term. Based on the backsliding witnessed over the past week, I am by no means convinced by that.
The issue is that the *expectation* was that it would all be over in a few days, a week at the most. That's what many external observers were saying and, more importantly, it seems to be what the Russians were thinking. They've been playing catch-up ever since then, and playing it poorly.
As for Russia having overwhelming military force: if you are talking non-conventional (NBC), then yes, absolutely. If you are talking about conventional forces, then it is slightly more even, especially as Ukraine are defending and have home advantage. Russia has many more troops and much more material than Ukraine, but it also has a vast border to protect and external obligations - it cannot put all its troops in Ukraine.
There is also the politics of going all-in on what is just a 'special operation' against a non-existential (for Russia) threat, and the fact the troops they have sent in so far have performed poorly compared to expectations.
The politics of this is also much harder for Russia - even internally. Then there are the economic effects. Both Russia and Ukraine will be hurting for different reasons, but Ukraine won't care - they're fighting an existential crisis.
I really doubt Russia can keep this sort of pressure up for three months. Ukraine might be able to.
Resorting to shelling cities from a distance is a sign of military weakness, not strength.
I don't think it's a sign of strength or weakness but a reversion to type. The Russian Army is an artillery army and massed long rage fires is how I and every other incorrect soi disant expert thought they would fight this war before it started. They'd be in a happier situation if they had, that's for sure.
A sign perhaps that Putin genuinely was stupid enough to think Russia would be welcomed as a liberator so there was no need for it?
Trigger warning - this has caused great offence in some Nat circles - for an article in a Student rag, no less, for which an apology has been extracted. Principle offence? The author is an English student at St Andrew’s.
Moral of the story, “don’t dish it out if you can’t take it…..”
I like to think of England and Scotland as a middle-aged couple living in the suburbs. The mutual hatred is palpable. They did a pretty good job with the children—the world’s sexiest Empire, modern Industry, and parliamentary democracy—but now the children are gone, and all that’s left is a menopausal Scotland, England (who’s having a midlife crisis), and the family dog, Wales. The cracks are beginning to show: England has just bought a Harley Davidson but no crash helmet (Brexit), and Scotland has turned to pills (Glasgow). Something has got to give—it’s been separate bedrooms since 1997 (or Devolution as they call it). Somebody needs to bite the bullet and move out. Scotland, incidentally, thinks it should be her: she wants to run away and join her French lover, Emmanuel McRon, in the sensual paradise of a Brussels Travelodge. Ideally, Scotland would quite like to fleece England for all he’s worth and leave him paying the mortgage (National Debt). England, meanwhile, is being a bit of a mug and still tries to make an effort once in a while—although Michael Gove in an Aberdeen nightclub didn’t really have the intended aphrodisiac effect.
Rest of South Con 43% Lab 33% LD 14% Grn 5% Ref 2%
Midlands Con 42% Lab 39% LD 10% Gen 5% Ref 3%
North Lab 55% Con 30% LD 6% Grn 5% Ref 1%
Wales Lab 39% Con 32% PC 13% LD 7% Gen 5% Ref 2%
Scotland SNP 48% Lab 20% Con 17% LD 11% Grn 3% Ref -
(Sample Size: 2,003; Fieldwork: 8- 11 March 2022)
The Red Wall is almost certainly lost for the Tories now.
I think you’re right. The North of England has been truly atrocious for the Tories for too long, and too deep, now. But it is the English Midlands that interest me. And here it’s still very tight, across all pollsters.
YouGov are the only one I really put much faith in when it comes to geographical breaks, and their most recent findings are even worse than that Deltapoll for Northern Tory MPs:
London Lab 55% Con 26% LD 11% Grn 6% Ref 1%
Rest of South Con 41% Lab 31% LD 13% Grn 8% Ref 5%
Midlands/Wales Lab 39% Con 35% Grn 7% LD 7% Ref 6% PC 3%
North Lab 49% Con 28% Grn 9% LD 7% Ref 3%
Scotland SNP 44% Con 22% Lab 21% Grn 6% LD 5% Ref 1%
(YG; Sample Size: 1,700; Fieldwork: 8- 9 March 2022)
The Midlands is Labour's toughest challenge by far. What's interesting is that Labour does not seem to have worked this out yet.
Trigger warning - this has caused great offence in some Nat circles - for an article in a Student rag, no less, for which an apology has been extracted. Principle offence? The author is an English student at St Andrew’s.
Moral of the story, “don’t dish it out if you can’t take it…..”
I like to think of England and Scotland as a middle-aged couple living in the suburbs. The mutual hatred is palpable. They did a pretty good job with the children—the world’s sexiest Empire, modern Industry, and parliamentary democracy—but now the children are gone, and all that’s left is a menopausal Scotland, England (who’s having a midlife crisis), and the family dog, Wales. The cracks are beginning to show: England has just bought a Harley Davidson but no crash helmet (Brexit), and Scotland has turned to pills (Glasgow). Something has got to give—it’s been separate bedrooms since 1997 (or Devolution as they call it). Somebody needs to bite the bullet and move out. Scotland, incidentally, thinks it should be her: she wants to run away and join her French lover, Emmanuel McRon, in the sensual paradise of a Brussels Travelodge. Ideally, Scotland would quite like to fleece England for all he’s worth and leave him paying the mortgage (National Debt). England, meanwhile, is being a bit of a mug and still tries to make an effort once in a while—although Michael Gove in an Aberdeen nightclub didn’t really have the intended aphrodisiac effect.
I thought it truthful (both on a personable scale and a national scale) , funny , clever and inventive. No wonder the Great Offended got offended.
BTW I am in that position personable having agreed to split with my wife in Jan - Just waiting my daughter to do her A-levels and go to university - Put the house on the market yesterday - Looking forward to a new phase in life and wont feel guilty either (as we have both done our parent duties (as article above) and both had enough of each other (or at least living with each other!)
Not gone through it myself but I know my brother and former sister-in-law are a lot happier now than when they were trying to “save their marriage”. Good luck!
Thanks ! Ironically it was an argument (more of a debate in my mind but it seemed to niggle my wife more) about politics that brought it to a head back in early Jan. Basically my wife is more "woke" than i am or at least more caring about that sort of stuff. i am too cynical ! Anyway the one thing i have never been able to do is change my view just because its expedient to do so so I held my ground ! Its why I have to change jobs every few years as I get into arguments with bosses, colleagues and can never be bothered to tow the company line if I think its tripe . Obviously deeper seated issues as to why we split but politics brought it to a head !
We probably know 10% of what is actually happening in Ukraine. And the info we do get may well be skewed towards positive news for the Ukrainian side. However, I don't think it's unreasonable to conclude that things are not going as Putin had anticipated they would - on the frontline and more widely.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
On the contrary, I think there is a major lack of progress for the Russian forces at Kyiv, and Ukraine seems to have prevented encirclement from west and south. The counter attacks to the east of Kyiv in the direction of Chernihiv start to make the Russian forces look very exposed, particularly as their supply lines are very insecure.*
I think a disorderly Russian retreat from Kyiv could well be forced over the next 2 weeks, releasing a lot of Ukranian forces for the southern front. Retaking that will be difficult against Russian forces, as the Ukranian forces lack heavy weapons.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
And you get this searing analysis from Twitter. Or do you have a Tac HQ set up in one of your several spare rooms.
You have absolutely no idea what is happening in Ukraine. You don't know how the overall campaign is going for either side. You post a video of a (supposedly) Russian platoon in a contact and make wild claims about how this shows how the war is going.
You are not alone on PB of course but you should know better. Or perhaps not.
Yes, I am a doctor in the East Midlands with no military background.
However the core facts are out there. After 16 days the Russians have only captured one city (Kherson) while others, even those close to the border and apparently early objectives are still in Ukranian hands, albeit Mariopol is besieged.
The ubiquity of Social Media (though of course one needs to be aware of biases and sources) in this war gives anyone access to knowledge of what is happening at the fronts unprecedented in history.
Given Putin's delusional war aims for Ukraine but he can't be got rid of easily, it looks like Russia is in for the long haul. Ukraine's aim can simply be stated as Russia leaving them alone.
On topic: The GOP are turning all the old assumptions upside down. Being openly corrupt - eg expressing a preference for fixed elections over the free and fair variety - used to be a bar to running for office. It now seems to be a prerequisite.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
In an age of instant gratification, the fact that just 16 days in Russian has yet to decisively roll over the Ukraine is somehow being interpreted as Russia having "lost".
Timescales in major wars are not like that.
The historical precedent seems to me to be the timescale of the Soviet Ukraine offensive in the late Summer/Autumn of 1943 in the immediate aftermath of the German defeat in the Battle of Kursk. The Soviet Union bythen had decisive material superiority but it was anything but a cakewalk, with plenty of checks and local reverses. It took the Germans about 3 months between Kursk to advance from a similar starting point as now to a position where they were breaking out from bridgeheads on the other side of the Dnieper.
So, 3 months, not 16 days.
What matters is that Russia has overwhelming military force. The crux of the matter seems to me to hinge on whether, in the longer term, the US and Nato are willing to sanction supplies to the Ukrainians on a scale that can once again halt Russian efforts to renew their offensive and maintain the check in the longer term. Based on the backsliding witnessed over the past week, I am by no means convinced by that.
Needs to be said over and over.
People are too used to 24 news cycles. And then if they have a bit of time to spare, rather fancy themselves as the Clausewitz of our day.
OT. An excellent interview with Delia Smith on Radio 4.(starts about 8.40) What a nice person she is.
It's quite life affirming to realise that not everyone in the UK who can get their voices heard are like Patel and Johnson though the visa debacle is going to leave a stain on the UK which will take a long while to wash out.
PS. Worth listening till it finishes. it ends with a beautiful piece by Prokofiev
Rest of South Con 43% Lab 33% LD 14% Grn 5% Ref 2%
Midlands Con 42% Lab 39% LD 10% Gen 5% Ref 3%
North Lab 55% Con 30% LD 6% Grn 5% Ref 1%
Wales Lab 39% Con 32% PC 13% LD 7% Gen 5% Ref 2%
Scotland SNP 48% Lab 20% Con 17% LD 11% Grn 3% Ref -
(Sample Size: 2,003; Fieldwork: 8- 11 March 2022)
The Red Wall is almost certainly lost for the Tories now.
Looks like it. The opposition parties will have a conundrum in the South, though. On these figures there are a number of Blue Wall seats where the LibDems were second last time but Labour is now second by a fair margin. Unless there's a quiet deal, neither is going to ease off for the other in seats like that.
Yes, I can see that as a dilemma. In my seat it varies from election to election who is the main challenger.
That is one of the fun things in Scottish politics at the moment: it is far from clear which is the principal Unionist party. They are pretty much neck and neck.
It doesn’t really matter much for the May elections, but if one or the other of the main Unionist parties gets a clear lead it will heavily affect media coverage. This is a dangerous period for the Scottish Tories. Douglas Ross has made a total arse of himself and they are in serious danger of sinking back down to their core vote, approx 15-18%. That’ll be cemented if Sarwar’s party have a good 2022.
Who would have thought you could have got a worse leader than Sarwar, him and Ross are dumb and dumber for sure. Both out of their depth.
Somebody, can't remember who, asked about the mutual intelligibility of the Russian and Ukrainian languages last night. My partially informed (C1 Russian speaker, zero experience in Ukrainian) opinion is...
Excluding idiom, neologisms and slang they have about 80% commonality in vocabulary though with a surprising number of false friends. The alphabets are 90% common as both have 33 letters and each has 3 letters the other doesn't but there is no hard sign in Ukrainian. Grammar is almost the same but Russian has no past continuous tense.
I'd rate it about the same as Spanish/Portuguese. A native speaker of one could definitely make themselves understood to the other although almost all Ukranians have some knowledge of Russian.
Vaguely on topic, one of the key questions must be the impact of higher energy prices. Thankfully, some of the sky-high numbers from earlier in the week have receded but we now have WTI only just under $110 a barrel and Brent at $112 overnight.
This time last year we were at $60 a barrel (two years ago, at the height of the pandemic, you couldn't give away a barrel of oil).
Russia is the world's third largest oil producer (after UAE and Saudi) and produced, pre-conflict, around 11% of the world's production.
As we know, there is a hypersensitivity to fuel prices in the UK and US (among others) so the issue is, what happens to those fuel and energy prices as the conflict continues and what are or will be the political consequences of a sustained period of higher energy prices?
As always, more questions than answers - would a sudden end to the conflict mean a sudden reversal of the current sanctions? If Putin fell and a new Russian Government announced a unilateral ceasefire and withdrawal from Ukraine back to status quo ante bellum, how would the West respond? Cautiously but in time you'd see the sanctions being eased if a new Russian Government continued to act in good faith.
That's the most optimistic scenario and not very likely at this time.
It seems more probable the conflict will grind on and the sanctions will continue - that means the new higher prices will be here to stay and costs leading to higher prices leading in turn to demands from organised labour for higher wages which will in turn raise costs and prices and so on.
Politically, it always looks good for Governments to stand up to organised labour (and few enjoy transport strikes) but at the same time the rising costs of goods and services does impact a Government negatively (whose fault is it anyway?). Nobody likes paying more for the same let alone for less.
The response might be to cut public spending (and with irresistible calls for increased defence spending, a wise man might argue the increase in fuel duty coming from increased pump prices could be used to improve said defences) and raise taxes, neither of which is guaranteed to be popular even if, in truth, any Opposition would be struggling to do any better.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
On the contrary, I think there is a major lack of progress for the Russian forces at Kyiv, and Ukraine seems to have prevented encirclement from west and south. The counter attacks to the east of Kyiv in the direction of Chernihiv start to make the Russian forces look very exposed, particularly as their supply lines are very insecure.*
I think a disorderly Russian retreat from Kyiv could well be forced over the next 2 weeks, releasing a lot of Ukranian forces for the southern front. Retaking that will be difficult against Russian forces, as the Ukranian forces lack heavy weapons.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
And you get this searing analysis from Twitter. Or do you have a Tac HQ set up in one of your several spare rooms.
You have absolutely no idea what is happening in Ukraine. You don't know how the overall campaign is going for either side. You post a video of a (supposedly) Russian platoon in a contact and make wild claims about how this shows how the war is going.
You are not alone on PB of course but you should know better. Or perhaps not.
Yes, I am a doctor in the East Midlands with no military background.
However the core facts are out there. After 16 days the Russians have only captured one city (Kherson) while others, even those close to the border and apparently early objectives are still in Ukranian hands, albeit Mariopol is besieged.
The ubiquity of Social Media (though of course one needs to be aware of biases and sources) in this war gives anyone access to knowledge of what is happening at the fronts unprecedented in history.
"After 16 days..."
Fucking hell how long do you think the opposed invasion of a seemingly well-armed country usually takes.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
In an age of instant gratification, the fact that just 16 days in Russian has yet to decisively roll over the Ukraine is somehow being interpreted as Russia having "lost".
Timescales in major wars are not like that.
The historical precedent seems to me to be the timescale of the Soviet Ukraine offensive in the late Summer/Autumn of 1943 in the immediate aftermath of the German defeat in the Battle of Kursk. The Soviet Union bythen had decisive material superiority but it was anything but a cakewalk, with plenty of checks and local reverses. It took the Germans about 3 months between Kursk to advance from a similar starting point as now to a position where they were breaking out from bridgeheads on the other side of the Dnieper.
So, 3 months, not 16 days.
What matters is that Russia has overwhelming military force. The crux of the matter seems to me to hinge on whether, in the longer term, the US and Nato are willing to sanction supplies to the Ukrainians on a scale that can once again halt Russian efforts to renew their offensive and maintain the check in the longer term. Based on the backsliding witnessed over the past week, I am by no means convinced by that.
Needs to be said over and over.
People are too used to 24 news cycles. And then if they have a bit of time to spare, rather fancy themselves as the Clausewitz of our day.
There's a difference between losing politically and losing militarily. You can have overwhelming force, and win every battle, but still lose the war - America in Vietnam is probably the most obvious example of this, but Russia in Afghanistan is a close second. Politically, Russia needs a short war with a decisive victory, which they haven't yet been able to achieve.
Sweden planning to cater for over 210,000 Ukrainian refugees by the summer.
That's in the same ball park as Ireland's planning, relative to their respective populations. On an even basis across the EU it equates to 9 million Ukrainian refugees. If the UK were to take a similar number of refugees we would be looking at 1.3 million.
Very clear that HMG is desperate to avoid taking even one-tenth of that number.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
In an age of instant gratification, the fact that just 16 days in Russian has yet to decisively roll over the Ukraine is somehow being interpreted as Russia having "lost".
Timescales in major wars are not like that.
The historical precedent seems to me to be the timescale of the Soviet Ukraine offensive in the late Summer/Autumn of 1943 in the immediate aftermath of the German defeat in the Battle of Kursk. The Soviet Union bythen had decisive material superiority but it was anything but a cakewalk, with plenty of checks and local reverses. It took the Germans about 3 months between Kursk to advance from a similar starting point as now to a position where they were breaking out from bridgeheads on the other side of the Dnieper.
So, 3 months, not 16 days.
What matters is that Russia has overwhelming military force. The crux of the matter seems to me to hinge on whether, in the longer term, the US and Nato are willing to sanction supplies to the Ukrainians on a scale that can once again halt Russian efforts to renew their offensive and maintain the check in the longer term. Based on the backsliding witnessed over the past week, I am by no means convinced by that.
The issue is that the *expectation* was that it would all be over in a few days, a week at the most. That's what many external observers were saying and, more importantly, it seems to be what the Russians were thinking. They've been playing catch-up ever since then, and playing it poorly.
As for Russia having overwhelming military force: if you are talking non-conventional (NBC), then yes, absolutely. If you are talking about conventional forces, then it is slightly more even, especially as Ukraine are defending and have home advantage. Russia has many more troops and much more material than Ukraine, but it also has a vast border to protect and external obligations - it cannot put all its troops in Ukraine.
There is also the politics of going all-in on what is just a 'special operation' against a non-existential (for Russia) threat, and the fact the troops they have sent in so far have performed poorly compared to expectations.
The politics of this is also much harder for Russia - even internally. Then there are the economic effects. Both Russia and Ukraine will be hurting for different reasons, but Ukraine won't care - they're fighting an existential crisis.
I really doubt Russia can keep this sort of pressure up for three months. Ukraine might be able to.
This poll is interesting. 58% support in Russia for the war, 23% against, but much higher opposition in the young and in the cities. Among 18- to 24-year-olds, 29 percent supported the war, and 39 percent opposed it.
The poll is a week old, and it would be interesting to know how opinion is shifting. Rallying to the flag or growing discontent?
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
On the contrary, I think there is a major lack of progress for the Russian forces at Kyiv, and Ukraine seems to have prevented encirclement from west and south. The counter attacks to the east of Kyiv in the direction of Chernihiv start to make the Russian forces look very exposed, particularly as their supply lines are very insecure.*
I think a disorderly Russian retreat from Kyiv could well be forced over the next 2 weeks, releasing a lot of Ukranian forces for the southern front. Retaking that will be difficult against Russian forces, as the Ukranian forces lack heavy weapons.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
And you get this searing analysis from Twitter. Or do you have a Tac HQ set up in one of your several spare rooms.
You have absolutely no idea what is happening in Ukraine. You don't know how the overall campaign is going for either side. You post a video of a (supposedly) Russian platoon in a contact and make wild claims about how this shows how the war is going.
You are not alone on PB of course but you should know better. Or perhaps not.
Yes, I am a doctor in the East Midlands with no military background.
However the core facts are out there. After 16 days the Russians have only captured one city (Kherson) while others, even those close to the border and apparently early objectives are still in Ukranian hands, albeit Mariopol is besieged.
The ubiquity of Social Media (though of course one needs to be aware of biases and sources) in this war gives anyone access to knowledge of what is happening at the fronts unprecedented in history.
"After 16 days..."
Fucking hell how long do you think the opposed invasion of a seemingly well-armed country usually takes.
F1: the changes are meant to increase overtaking by making it easier to follow the car ahead. There are 3 DRS zones in Bahrain, which may mean that they're overpowered. That could cut both ways, by allowing slightly slower cars to repass, or mean that a car that qualifies badly can more rapidly cut through the field.
Somebody, can't remember who, asked about the mutual intelligibility of the Russian and Ukrainian languages last night. My partially informed (C1 Russian speaker, zero experience in Ukrainian) opinion is...
Excluding idiom, neologisms and slang they have about 80% commonality in vocabulary though with a surprising number of false friends. The alphabets are 90% common as both have 33 letters and each has 3 letters the other doesn't but there is no hard sign in Ukrainian. Grammar is almost the same but Russian has no past continuous tense.
I'd rate it about the same as Spanish/Portuguese. A native speaker of one could definitely make themselves understood to the other although almost all Ukranians have some knowledge of Russian.
Trigger warning - this has caused great offence in some Nat circles - for an article in a Student rag, no less, for which an apology has been extracted. Principle offence? The author is an English student at St Andrew’s.
Moral of the story, “don’t dish it out if you can’t take it…..”
I like to think of England and Scotland as a middle-aged couple living in the suburbs. The mutual hatred is palpable. They did a pretty good job with the children—the world’s sexiest Empire, modern Industry, and parliamentary democracy—but now the children are gone, and all that’s left is a menopausal Scotland, England (who’s having a midlife crisis), and the family dog, Wales. The cracks are beginning to show: England has just bought a Harley Davidson but no crash helmet (Brexit), and Scotland has turned to pills (Glasgow). Something has got to give—it’s been separate bedrooms since 1997 (or Devolution as they call it). Somebody needs to bite the bullet and move out. Scotland, incidentally, thinks it should be her: she wants to run away and join her French lover, Emmanuel McRon, in the sensual paradise of a Brussels Travelodge. Ideally, Scotland would quite like to fleece England for all he’s worth and leave him paying the mortgage (National Debt). England, meanwhile, is being a bit of a mug and still tries to make an effort once in a while—although Michael Gove in an Aberdeen nightclub didn’t really have the intended aphrodisiac effect.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
On the contrary, I think there is a major lack of progress for the Russian forces at Kyiv, and Ukraine seems to have prevented encirclement from west and south. The counter attacks to the east of Kyiv in the direction of Chernihiv start to make the Russian forces look very exposed, particularly as their supply lines are very insecure.*
I think a disorderly Russian retreat from Kyiv could well be forced over the next 2 weeks, releasing a lot of Ukranian forces for the southern front. Retaking that will be difficult against Russian forces, as the Ukranian forces lack heavy weapons.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
And you get this searing analysis from Twitter. Or do you have a Tac HQ set up in one of your several spare rooms.
You have absolutely no idea what is happening in Ukraine. You don't know how the overall campaign is going for either side. You post a video of a (supposedly) Russian platoon in a contact and make wild claims about how this shows how the war is going.
You are not alone on PB of course but you should know better. Or perhaps not.
Yes, I am a doctor in the East Midlands with no military background.
However the core facts are out there. After 16 days the Russians have only captured one city (Kherson) while others, even those close to the border and apparently early objectives are still in Ukranian hands, albeit Mariopol is besieged.
The ubiquity of Social Media (though of course one needs to be aware of biases and sources) in this war gives anyone access to knowledge of what is happening at the fronts unprecedented in history.
"After 16 days..."
Fucking hell how long do you think the opposed invasion of a seemingly well-armed country usually takes.
Well, time will tell, but I don't think Russia can sustain a long campaign. I suspect that they will hold the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast, and add a bit to the Donbas, but not gain anything elsewhere.
Trigger warning - this has caused great offence in some Nat circles - for an article in a Student rag, no less, for which an apology has been extracted. Principle offence? The author is an English student at St Andrew’s.
Moral of the story, “don’t dish it out if you can’t take it…..”
I like to think of England and Scotland as a middle-aged couple living in the suburbs. The mutual hatred is palpable. They did a pretty good job with the children—the world’s sexiest Empire, modern Industry, and parliamentary democracy—but now the children are gone, and all that’s left is a menopausal Scotland, England (who’s having a midlife crisis), and the family dog, Wales. The cracks are beginning to show: England has just bought a Harley Davidson but no crash helmet (Brexit), and Scotland has turned to pills (Glasgow). Something has got to give—it’s been separate bedrooms since 1997 (or Devolution as they call it). Somebody needs to bite the bullet and move out. Scotland, incidentally, thinks it should be her: she wants to run away and join her French lover, Emmanuel McRon, in the sensual paradise of a Brussels Travelodge. Ideally, Scotland would quite like to fleece England for all he’s worth and leave him paying the mortgage (National Debt). England, meanwhile, is being a bit of a mug and still tries to make an effort once in a while—although Michael Gove in an Aberdeen nightclub didn’t really have the intended aphrodisiac effect.
We probably know 10% of what is actually happening in Ukraine. And the info we do get may well be skewed towards positive news for the Ukrainian side. However, I don't think it's unreasonable to conclude that things are not going as Putin had anticipated they would - on the frontline and more widely.
Yes, I think this is reasonable. We're saturated with pro-Ukrainian messaging and caution is advisable as a result. And the Russians may well be regrouping or upping their intensity and things will get worse before they get better. But it doesn't follow that the broad strokes that more credible sources report about stalling or conservative estimates of Russian losses are not still true.
And of course it is a question of expectations - in an existential fight for its existence extracting a higher cost to the initial invasion than Russia planned, which will have an impact on what it intended in the long term, is not insigificant.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
On the contrary, I think there is a major lack of progress for the Russian forces at Kyiv, and Ukraine seems to have prevented encirclement from west and south. The counter attacks to the east of Kyiv in the direction of Chernihiv start to make the Russian forces look very exposed, particularly as their supply lines are very insecure.*
I think a disorderly Russian retreat from Kyiv could well be forced over the next 2 weeks, releasing a lot of Ukranian forces for the southern front. Retaking that will be difficult against Russian forces, as the Ukranian forces lack heavy weapons.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
And you get this searing analysis from Twitter. Or do you have a Tac HQ set up in one of your several spare rooms.
You have absolutely no idea what is happening in Ukraine. You don't know how the overall campaign is going for either side. You post a video of a (supposedly) Russian platoon in a contact and make wild claims about how this shows how the war is going.
You are not alone on PB of course but you should know better. Or perhaps not.
Yes, I am a doctor in the East Midlands with no military background.
However the core facts are out there. After 16 days the Russians have only captured one city (Kherson) while others, even those close to the border and apparently early objectives are still in Ukranian hands, albeit Mariopol is besieged.
The ubiquity of Social Media (though of course one needs to be aware of biases and sources) in this war gives anyone access to knowledge of what is happening at the fronts unprecedented in history.
"After 16 days..."
Fucking hell how long do you think the opposed invasion of a seemingly well-armed country usually takes.
Who can say? Not you or I (and frankly I doubt any current military person does either). Credible reports are that Russia expected to be have achieved quite a bit more within that space of time.
Wariness at assuming this opening phase means all is going badly for Russia/well for Ukraine is certainly advisable though.
I note Tory Unionists are still studiously avoiding any comment on DRossy and the SCons volte face over BJ. How bad are things when the SLDs are accusing you of lacking a spine? Piquant to think that both parties have recently been making noises about working together for the Union.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
In an age of instant gratification, the fact that just 16 days in Russian has yet to decisively roll over the Ukraine is somehow being interpreted as Russia having "lost".
Timescales in major wars are not like that.
The historical precedent seems to me to be the timescale of the Soviet Ukraine offensive in the late Summer/Autumn of 1943 in the immediate aftermath of the German defeat in the Battle of Kursk. The Soviet Union bythen had decisive material superiority but it was anything but a cakewalk, with plenty of checks and local reverses. It took the Germans about 3 months between Kursk to advance from a similar starting point as now to a position where they were breaking out from bridgeheads on the other side of the Dnieper.
So, 3 months, not 16 days.
What matters is that Russia has overwhelming military force. The crux of the matter seems to me to hinge on whether, in the longer term, the US and Nato are willing to sanction supplies to the Ukrainians on a scale that can once again halt Russian efforts to renew their offensive and maintain the check in the longer term. Based on the backsliding witnessed over the past week, I am by no means convinced by that.
Needs to be said over and over.
People are too used to 24 news cycles. And then if they have a bit of time to spare, rather fancy themselves as the Clausewitz of our day.
There's a difference between losing politically and losing militarily. You can have overwhelming force, and win every battle, but still lose the war - America in Vietnam is probably the most obvious example of this, but Russia in Afghanistan is a close second. Politically, Russia needs a short war with a decisive victory, which they haven't yet been able to achieve.
I have no idea whether they are losing militarily or politically (which polity). There seems to be some support domestically for the war and of course precious little for it internationally.
I'm not sure why you say Russia needs a short war or indeed what constitutes short. 15 days?
Of course wild speculation on matters we know nothing about is PB's thing but that's not too say it isn't irritating as all get out.
Sweden planning to cater for over 210,000 Ukrainian refugees by the summer.
That's in the same ball park as Ireland's planning, relative to their respective populations. On an even basis across the EU it equates to 9 million Ukrainian refugees. If the UK were to take a similar number of refugees we would be looking at 1.3 million.
Very clear that HMG is desperate to avoid taking even one-tenth of that number.
Suspect if HMG could take 1.3m refugees over the next year it would be quietly content, given the circumstances. The challenge is taking 1.3m Ukrainian refugees on top of the steady stream of arrivals from the third world.
Rest of South Con 43% Lab 33% LD 14% Grn 5% Ref 2%
Midlands Con 42% Lab 39% LD 10% Gen 5% Ref 3%
North Lab 55% Con 30% LD 6% Grn 5% Ref 1%
Wales Lab 39% Con 32% PC 13% LD 7% Gen 5% Ref 2%
Scotland SNP 48% Lab 20% Con 17% LD 11% Grn 3% Ref -
(Sample Size: 2,003; Fieldwork: 8- 11 March 2022)
The Red Wall is almost certainly lost for the Tories now.
I think you’re right. The North of England has been truly atrocious for the Tories for too long, and too deep, now. But it is the English Midlands that interest me. And here it’s still very tight, across all pollsters.
YouGov are the only one I really put much faith in when it comes to geographical breaks, and their most recent findings are even worse than that Deltapoll for Northern Tory MPs:
London Lab 55% Con 26% LD 11% Grn 6% Ref 1%
Rest of South Con 41% Lab 31% LD 13% Grn 8% Ref 5%
Midlands/Wales Lab 39% Con 35% Grn 7% LD 7% Ref 6% PC 3%
North Lab 49% Con 28% Grn 9% LD 7% Ref 3%
Scotland SNP 44% Con 22% Lab 21% Grn 6% LD 5% Ref 1%
(YG; Sample Size: 1,700; Fieldwork: 8- 9 March 2022)
The Midlands is Labour's toughest challenge by far. What's interesting is that Labour does not seem to have worked this out yet.
Labour can form a government without winning the Midlands if they win London, Wales and the North by more than they did in 2019 and the Midlands is closer.
However they would need SNP confidence and supply to make Starmer PM.
Labour can likely only win a majority if they have a significant lead in the Midlands too
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
On the contrary, I think there is a major lack of progress for the Russian forces at Kyiv, and Ukraine seems to have prevented encirclement from west and south. The counter attacks to the east of Kyiv in the direction of Chernihiv start to make the Russian forces look very exposed, particularly as their supply lines are very insecure.*
I think a disorderly Russian retreat from Kyiv could well be forced over the next 2 weeks, releasing a lot of Ukranian forces for the southern front. Retaking that will be difficult against Russian forces, as the Ukranian forces lack heavy weapons.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
And you get this searing analysis from Twitter. Or do you have a Tac HQ set up in one of your several spare rooms.
You have absolutely no idea what is happening in Ukraine. You don't know how the overall campaign is going for either side. You post a video of a (supposedly) Russian platoon in a contact and make wild claims about how this shows how the war is going.
You are not alone on PB of course but you should know better. Or perhaps not.
Yes, I am a doctor in the East Midlands with no military background.
However the core facts are out there. After 16 days the Russians have only captured one city (Kherson) while others, even those close to the border and apparently early objectives are still in Ukranian hands, albeit Mariopol is besieged.
The ubiquity of Social Media (though of course one needs to be aware of biases and sources) in this war gives anyone access to knowledge of what is happening at the fronts unprecedented in history.
"After 16 days..."
Fucking hell how long do you think the opposed invasion of a seemingly well-armed country usually takes.
Didn't Putin think it'd take less than a week?
Personally I expected the Russians to be in Kiyv within a few days and a puppet government in place soon after. I am amazed as well as delighted that into the third week they have still not succeeded in their major objectives.
You still have to think that the Russians will take over in the end if only by massive force majeure, and it is likely to be the most Pyrrhic of victories now.
I keep looking at the weather and hope for an early spring in the Ukraine which will disaadvantage the heavy Rusian guns, but it still looks like it's a good ten days off. That's a long time to hold out,
Trigger warning - this has caused great offence in some Nat circles - for an article in a Student rag, no less, for which an apology has been extracted. Principle offence? The author is an English student at St Andrew’s.
Moral of the story, “don’t dish it out if you can’t take it…..”
I like to think of England and Scotland as a middle-aged couple living in the suburbs. The mutual hatred is palpable. They did a pretty good job with the children—the world’s sexiest Empire, modern Industry, and parliamentary democracy—but now the children are gone, and all that’s left is a menopausal Scotland, England (who’s having a midlife crisis), and the family dog, Wales. The cracks are beginning to show: England has just bought a Harley Davidson but no crash helmet (Brexit), and Scotland has turned to pills (Glasgow). Something has got to give—it’s been separate bedrooms since 1997 (or Devolution as they call it). Somebody needs to bite the bullet and move out. Scotland, incidentally, thinks it should be her: she wants to run away and join her French lover, Emmanuel McRon, in the sensual paradise of a Brussels Travelodge. Ideally, Scotland would quite like to fleece England for all he’s worth and leave him paying the mortgage (National Debt). England, meanwhile, is being a bit of a mug and still tries to make an effort once in a while—although Michael Gove in an Aberdeen nightclub didn’t really have the intended aphrodisiac effect.
Somebody, can't remember who, asked about the mutual intelligibility of the Russian and Ukrainian languages last night. My partially informed (C1 Russian speaker, zero experience in Ukrainian) opinion is...
Excluding idiom, neologisms and slang they have about 80% commonality in vocabulary though with a surprising number of false friends. The alphabets are 90% common as both have 33 letters and each has 3 letters the other doesn't but there is no hard sign in Ukrainian. Grammar is almost the same but Russian has no past continuous tense.
I'd rate it about the same as Spanish/Portuguese. A native speaker of one could definitely make themselves understood to the other although almost all Ukranians have some knowledge of Russian.
It is simply unacceptable for a senior lawyer such as @Keir_Starmer to so misstate the law on #WomensRights. He needs to take a look at threads from @BluskyeAllison & @legalfeminist & set the record straight.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
On the contrary, I think there is a major lack of progress for the Russian forces at Kyiv, and Ukraine seems to have prevented encirclement from west and south. The counter attacks to the east of Kyiv in the direction of Chernihiv start to make the Russian forces look very exposed, particularly as their supply lines are very insecure.*
I think a disorderly Russian retreat from Kyiv could well be forced over the next 2 weeks, releasing a lot of Ukranian forces for the southern front. Retaking that will be difficult against Russian forces, as the Ukranian forces lack heavy weapons.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
And you get this searing analysis from Twitter. Or do you have a Tac HQ set up in one of your several spare rooms.
You have absolutely no idea what is happening in Ukraine. You don't know how the overall campaign is going for either side. You post a video of a (supposedly) Russian platoon in a contact and make wild claims about how this shows how the war is going.
You are not alone on PB of course but you should know better. Or perhaps not.
Yes, I am a doctor in the East Midlands with no military background.
However the core facts are out there. After 16 days the Russians have only captured one city (Kherson) while others, even those close to the border and apparently early objectives are still in Ukranian hands, albeit Mariopol is besieged.
The ubiquity of Social Media (though of course one needs to be aware of biases and sources) in this war gives anyone access to knowledge of what is happening at the fronts unprecedented in history.
"After 16 days..."
Fucking hell how long do you think the opposed invasion of a seemingly well-armed country usually takes.
Well, time will tell, but I don't think Russia can sustain a long campaign. I suspect that they will hold the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast, and add a bit to the Donbas, but not gain anything elsewhere.
As noted above what you suspect is of precisely zero value or use. But if it makes you feel better to assess the strategic possibilities of this war with absolutely no basis to do so, nor any credibility whatsoever then go for your life.
You do make yourself look like a complete twat, though.
We probably know 10% of what is actually happening in Ukraine. And the info we do get may well be skewed towards positive news for the Ukrainian side. However, I don't think it's unreasonable to conclude that things are not going as Putin had anticipated they would - on the frontline and more widely.
Probably a reasonably realistic assessment from the (Ukrainian) Governor of Mykolaiv. "We are winning this fight, but not this war".
We know 10 per cent of what is happening, and it is very hard to work out the truth from the 10 per cent (which is likely highly skewed). The first casualty of War is Truth.
All warfare thrives on deceit & credulity.
And there is deceit on both sides, as it serves the greater purpose of the war. And there is credulity on both sides, as it serves the greater purpose of the war.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
In an age of instant gratification, the fact that just 16 days in Russian has yet to decisively roll over the Ukraine is somehow being interpreted as Russia having "lost".
Timescales in major wars are not like that.
The historical precedent seems to me to be the timescale of the Soviet Ukraine offensive in the late Summer/Autumn of 1943 in the immediate aftermath of the German defeat in the Battle of Kursk. The Soviet Union bythen had decisive material superiority but it was anything but a cakewalk, with plenty of checks and local reverses. It took the Germans about 3 months between Kursk to advance from a similar starting point as now to a position where they were breaking out from bridgeheads on the other side of the Dnieper.
So, 3 months, not 16 days.
What matters is that Russia has overwhelming military force. The crux of the matter seems to me to hinge on whether, in the longer term, the US and Nato are willing to sanction supplies to the Ukrainians on a scale that can once again halt Russian efforts to renew their offensive and maintain the check in the longer term. Based on the backsliding witnessed over the past week, I am by no means convinced by that.
Needs to be said over and over.
People are too used to 24 news cycles. And then if they have a bit of time to spare, rather fancy themselves as the Clausewitz of our day.
There's a difference between losing politically and losing militarily. You can have overwhelming force, and win every battle, but still lose the war - America in Vietnam is probably the most obvious example of this, but Russia in Afghanistan is a close second. Politically, Russia needs a short war with a decisive victory, which they haven't yet been able to achieve.
Russia had planned - and was banking on - a war being swift and resolved before the West could get its act together and get sanctions that could cause serious economic damage. I expect some of their useful idiots were lined up with “what’s the point now? Time to move on and accept the new reality” arguments ready to deploy. Instead they’ve got bogged down in a militarily challenging fight and an economically disastrous one. Recall at the start some were advancing arguments “what’s the point of arming Ukraine, it will be over in a few days”. Something the U.K. got right from the start.
OT. An excellent interview with Delia Smith on Radio 4.(starts about 8.40) What a nice person she is.
It's quite life affirming to realise that not everyone in the UK who can get their voices heard are like Patel and Johnson though the visa debacle is going to leave a stain on the UK which will take a long while to wash out.
PS. Worth listening till it finishes. it ends with a beautiful piece by Prokofiev
She's obviously a decent sort but a bit naive I think. As I recall she seem to be saying the time for political parties was over and we now needed leaders, that could lead to some unpleasant outcomes.
The piece right at the end was Stravinsky which was indeed glorious.
Trigger warning - this has caused great offence in some Nat circles - for an article in a Student rag, no less, for which an apology has been extracted. Principle offence? The author is an English student at St Andrew’s.
Moral of the story, “don’t dish it out if you can’t take it…..”
I like to think of England and Scotland as a middle-aged couple living in the suburbs. The mutual hatred is palpable. They did a pretty good job with the children—the world’s sexiest Empire, modern Industry, and parliamentary democracy—but now the children are gone, and all that’s left is a menopausal Scotland, England (who’s having a midlife crisis), and the family dog, Wales. The cracks are beginning to show: England has just bought a Harley Davidson but no crash helmet (Brexit), and Scotland has turned to pills (Glasgow). Something has got to give—it’s been separate bedrooms since 1997 (or Devolution as they call it). Somebody needs to bite the bullet and move out. Scotland, incidentally, thinks it should be her: she wants to run away and join her French lover, Emmanuel McRon, in the sensual paradise of a Brussels Travelodge. Ideally, Scotland would quite like to fleece England for all he’s worth and leave him paying the mortgage (National Debt). England, meanwhile, is being a bit of a mug and still tries to make an effort once in a while—although Michael Gove in an Aberdeen nightclub didn’t really have the intended aphrodisiac effect.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
On the contrary, I think there is a major lack of progress for the Russian forces at Kyiv, and Ukraine seems to have prevented encirclement from west and south. The counter attacks to the east of Kyiv in the direction of Chernihiv start to make the Russian forces look very exposed, particularly as their supply lines are very insecure.*
I think a disorderly Russian retreat from Kyiv could well be forced over the next 2 weeks, releasing a lot of Ukranian forces for the southern front. Retaking that will be difficult against Russian forces, as the Ukranian forces lack heavy weapons.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
And you get this searing analysis from Twitter. Or do you have a Tac HQ set up in one of your several spare rooms.
You have absolutely no idea what is happening in Ukraine. You don't know how the overall campaign is going for either side. You post a video of a (supposedly) Russian platoon in a contact and make wild claims about how this shows how the war is going.
You are not alone on PB of course but you should know better. Or perhaps not.
Yes, I am a doctor in the East Midlands with no military background.
However the core facts are out there. After 16 days the Russians have only captured one city (Kherson) while others, even those close to the border and apparently early objectives are still in Ukranian hands, albeit Mariopol is besieged.
The ubiquity of Social Media (though of course one needs to be aware of biases and sources) in this war gives anyone access to knowledge of what is happening at the fronts unprecedented in history.
"After 16 days..."
Fucking hell how long do you think the opposed invasion of a seemingly well-armed country usually takes.
Well, time will tell, but I don't think Russia can sustain a long campaign. I suspect that they will hold the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast, and add a bit to the Donbas, but not gain anything elsewhere.
As noted above what you suspect is of precisely zero value or use. But if it makes you feel better to assess the strategic possibilities of this war with absolutely no basis to do so, nor any credibility whatsoever then go for your life.
You do make yourself look like a complete twat, though.
A bit harsh. 75% of what goes on here on any subject is lightly educated guesswork.
Rest of South Con 43% Lab 33% LD 14% Grn 5% Ref 2%
Midlands Con 42% Lab 39% LD 10% Gen 5% Ref 3%
North Lab 55% Con 30% LD 6% Grn 5% Ref 1%
Wales Lab 39% Con 32% PC 13% LD 7% Gen 5% Ref 2%
Scotland SNP 48% Lab 20% Con 17% LD 11% Grn 3% Ref -
(Sample Size: 2,003; Fieldwork: 8- 11 March 2022)
The Red Wall is almost certainly lost for the Tories now.
I think you’re right. The North of England has been truly atrocious for the Tories for too long, and too deep, now. But it is the English Midlands that interest me. And here it’s still very tight, across all pollsters.
YouGov are the only one I really put much faith in when it comes to geographical breaks, and their most recent findings are even worse than that Deltapoll for Northern Tory MPs:
London Lab 55% Con 26% LD 11% Grn 6% Ref 1%
Rest of South Con 41% Lab 31% LD 13% Grn 8% Ref 5%
Midlands/Wales Lab 39% Con 35% Grn 7% LD 7% Ref 6% PC 3%
North Lab 49% Con 28% Grn 9% LD 7% Ref 3%
Scotland SNP 44% Con 22% Lab 21% Grn 6% LD 5% Ref 1%
(YG; Sample Size: 1,700; Fieldwork: 8- 9 March 2022)
The Midlands is Labour's toughest challenge by far. What's interesting is that Labour does not seem to have worked this out yet.
Labour can form a government without winning the Midlands if they win London, Wales and the North by more than they did in 2019 and the Midlands is closer.
However they would need SNP confidence and supply to make Starmer PM.
Labour can likely only win a majority if they have a significant lead in the Midlands too
Well, that may come.
One thing I do notice here in Staffordshire - and I have no idea whether it's typical of the Midlands' former industrial areas, but it strikes me as a curious inversion of the national norm - is that Labour's voters and activists are mostly very elderly ex-union types. The candidate they put up here in 2019 was 77 years old. They couldn't find anyone younger. Watching them leafleting in Cannock town centre was like watching an OAPs' association.
Tory voters are mostly quite a bit younger and work in the lighter industrial firms. They are not bothered about pensions, or savings. Or unions or very often politics in general. What they want is enough money in their pay packets to cover their bills, including nice shiny toys like new iPhones.
So clobbering them with an NI rise is actually a very silly idea, especially as those bills go up substantially.
Does that mean Labour can recover? Not necessarily. See about the hollowed out activist base again. But the Tories shouldn't be in any way complacent.
Don't know if it's typical or just a fluke of Staffs' peculiar circumstances. So treat with caution.
Rest of South Con 43% Lab 33% LD 14% Grn 5% Ref 2%
Midlands Con 42% Lab 39% LD 10% Gen 5% Ref 3%
North Lab 55% Con 30% LD 6% Grn 5% Ref 1%
Wales Lab 39% Con 32% PC 13% LD 7% Gen 5% Ref 2%
Scotland SNP 48% Lab 20% Con 17% LD 11% Grn 3% Ref -
(Sample Size: 2,003; Fieldwork: 8- 11 March 2022)
The Red Wall is almost certainly lost for the Tories now.
I think you’re right. The North of England has been truly atrocious for the Tories for too long, and too deep, now. But it is the English Midlands that interest me. And here it’s still very tight, across all pollsters.
YouGov are the only one I really put much faith in when it comes to geographical breaks, and their most recent findings are even worse than that Deltapoll for Northern Tory MPs:
London Lab 55% Con 26% LD 11% Grn 6% Ref 1%
Rest of South Con 41% Lab 31% LD 13% Grn 8% Ref 5%
Midlands/Wales Lab 39% Con 35% Grn 7% LD 7% Ref 6% PC 3%
North Lab 49% Con 28% Grn 9% LD 7% Ref 3%
Scotland SNP 44% Con 22% Lab 21% Grn 6% LD 5% Ref 1%
(YG; Sample Size: 1,700; Fieldwork: 8- 9 March 2022)
The Midlands is Labour's toughest challenge by far. What's interesting is that Labour does not seem to have worked this out yet.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but does Starmer not just come across as another whiney southern posho?
It is a long time since I used to frequent Solihull and environs, but my memory of the Midlands is that they are rather disdainful of folk from further south.
Academics at leading British universities who push the Kremlin's propaganda are "effectively helping the Russian war effort", @daverich1 from @CST_UK tells @LBC, as we reveal professors at Edinburgh and Leeds have been promoting Putin's lines-to-take on social media.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
On the contrary, I think there is a major lack of progress for the Russian forces at Kyiv, and Ukraine seems to have prevented encirclement from west and south. The counter attacks to the east of Kyiv in the direction of Chernihiv start to make the Russian forces look very exposed, particularly as their supply lines are very insecure.*
I think a disorderly Russian retreat from Kyiv could well be forced over the next 2 weeks, releasing a lot of Ukranian forces for the southern front. Retaking that will be difficult against Russian forces, as the Ukranian forces lack heavy weapons.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
And you get this searing analysis from Twitter. Or do you have a Tac HQ set up in one of your several spare rooms.
You have absolutely no idea what is happening in Ukraine. You don't know how the overall campaign is going for either side. You post a video of a (supposedly) Russian platoon in a contact and make wild claims about how this shows how the war is going.
You are not alone on PB of course but you should know better. Or perhaps not.
Yes, I am a doctor in the East Midlands with no military background.
However the core facts are out there. After 16 days the Russians have only captured one city (Kherson) while others, even those close to the border and apparently early objectives are still in Ukranian hands, albeit Mariopol is besieged.
The ubiquity of Social Media (though of course one needs to be aware of biases and sources) in this war gives anyone access to knowledge of what is happening at the fronts unprecedented in history.
"After 16 days..."
Fucking hell how long do you think the opposed invasion of a seemingly well-armed country usually takes.
Well, time will tell, but I don't think Russia can sustain a long campaign. I suspect that they will hold the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast, and add a bit to the Donbas, but not gain anything elsewhere.
As noted above what you suspect is of precisely zero value or use. But if it makes you feel better to assess the strategic possibilities of this war with absolutely no basis to do so, nor any credibility whatsoever then go for your life.
You do make yourself look like a complete twat, though.
You're not leaving much roon to get even more curmudgeonly during the day (I speak as one who likes to leave a bit of slack in that area).
I note Tory Unionists are still studiously avoiding any comment on DRossy and the SCons volte face over BJ. How bad are things when the SLDs are accusing you of lacking a spine? Piquant to think that both parties have recently been making noises about working together for the Union.
I note Tory Unionists are still studiously avoiding any comment on DRossy and the SCons volte face over BJ. How bad are things when the SLDs are accusing you of lacking a spine? Piquant to think that both parties have recently been making noises about working together for the Union.
Sweden planning to cater for over 210,000 Ukrainian refugees by the summer.
That's in the same ball park as Ireland's planning, relative to their respective populations. On an even basis across the EU it equates to 9 million Ukrainian refugees. If the UK were to take a similar number of refugees we would be looking at 1.3 million.
Very clear that HMG is desperate to avoid taking even one-tenth of that number.
There are unlikely to be over 10m refugees from a country of 44m where men cannot leave.
5-6m seems like a reasonable starting point which is 1% of Europe's population (incl the UK and non EU European countries). So on an even basis, assuming zero to the rest of the world, the UK would take 700k.
However it is logical and sensible that the countries closest to Ukraine will take in the most. UK being more expensive to live in will be a disincentive to come here for those looking to return home fairly quickly, and housing density and levels of unoccupied accommodation is another factor.
I'd say 100-200k is an appropriate number for the UK to take in based on above, but also contribute much more financially beyond that to the likes of Poland, Romania and Moldova who will naturally take the highest shares due to geography.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
On the contrary, I think there is a major lack of progress for the Russian forces at Kyiv, and Ukraine seems to have prevented encirclement from west and south. The counter attacks to the east of Kyiv in the direction of Chernihiv start to make the Russian forces look very exposed, particularly as their supply lines are very insecure.*
I think a disorderly Russian retreat from Kyiv could well be forced over the next 2 weeks, releasing a lot of Ukranian forces for the southern front. Retaking that will be difficult against Russian forces, as the Ukranian forces lack heavy weapons.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
And you get this searing analysis from Twitter. Or do you have a Tac HQ set up in one of your several spare rooms.
You have absolutely no idea what is happening in Ukraine. You don't know how the overall campaign is going for either side. You post a video of a (supposedly) Russian platoon in a contact and make wild claims about how this shows how the war is going.
You are not alone on PB of course but you should know better. Or perhaps not.
Yes, I am a doctor in the East Midlands with no military background.
However the core facts are out there. After 16 days the Russians have only captured one city (Kherson) while others, even those close to the border and apparently early objectives are still in Ukranian hands, albeit Mariopol is besieged.
The ubiquity of Social Media (though of course one needs to be aware of biases and sources) in this war gives anyone access to knowledge of what is happening at the fronts unprecedented in history.
"After 16 days..."
Fucking hell how long do you think the opposed invasion of a seemingly well-armed country usually takes.
Well, time will tell, but I don't think Russia can sustain a long campaign. I suspect that they will hold the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast, and add a bit to the Donbas, but not gain anything elsewhere.
As noted above what you suspect is of precisely zero value or use. But if it makes you feel better to assess the strategic possibilities of this war with absolutely no basis to do so, nor any credibility whatsoever then go for your life.
You do make yourself look like a complete twat, though.
A bit harsh. 75% of what goes on here on any subject is lightly educated guesswork.
Given your lack of knowledge on the background and expertise of posters here, I find that estimate of zero value
(75% does sound a bit low to me though, particularly for my output)
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
On the contrary, I think there is a major lack of progress for the Russian forces at Kyiv, and Ukraine seems to have prevented encirclement from west and south. The counter attacks to the east of Kyiv in the direction of Chernihiv start to make the Russian forces look very exposed, particularly as their supply lines are very insecure.*
I think a disorderly Russian retreat from Kyiv could well be forced over the next 2 weeks, releasing a lot of Ukranian forces for the southern front. Retaking that will be difficult against Russian forces, as the Ukranian forces lack heavy weapons.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
And you get this searing analysis from Twitter. Or do you have a Tac HQ set up in one of your several spare rooms.
You have absolutely no idea what is happening in Ukraine. You don't know how the overall campaign is going for either side. You post a video of a (supposedly) Russian platoon in a contact and make wild claims about how this shows how the war is going.
You are not alone on PB of course but you should know better. Or perhaps not.
Yes, I am a doctor in the East Midlands with no military background.
However the core facts are out there. After 16 days the Russians have only captured one city (Kherson) while others, even those close to the border and apparently early objectives are still in Ukranian hands, albeit Mariopol is besieged.
The ubiquity of Social Media (though of course one needs to be aware of biases and sources) in this war gives anyone access to knowledge of what is happening at the fronts unprecedented in history.
"After 16 days..."
Fucking hell how long do you think the opposed invasion of a seemingly well-armed country usually takes.
Well, time will tell, but I don't think Russia can sustain a long campaign. I suspect that they will hold the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast, and add a bit to the Donbas, but not gain anything elsewhere.
As noted above what you suspect is of precisely zero value or use. But if it makes you feel better to assess the strategic possibilities of this war with absolutely no basis to do so, nor any credibility whatsoever then go for your life.
You do make yourself look like a complete twat, though.
A bit harsh. 75% of what goes on here on any subject is lightly educated guesswork.
As I said it's the bread and butter of PB. Doesn't mean it's not fucking irritating.
This is interesting given they likely had some sort of authorisation ?
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion. https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
The thread seems like it's laying the groundwork for a Russian climbdown. I suspect that we'll go back to the status quo ante bellum minus some of the Russian reserves being diverted to rebuilding Ukraine. Putin is realising how badly he miscalculated.
Yes, they don't appear to be calling for withdrawal, but for declaring victory by solidifying the grip on the Donbas, and settling for Ukrainian neutrality without further advances. Which is pretty much what most of us have been suggesting is the outline of a plausible settlement, and they could probably have got without a war, so it'd certainly count as a deserved disaster for Putin.
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
This guy publishes quite a good situation map each day. Quite good level of detail too, down to individual units being identified:
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
I’m not sure where Nick is getting his view from that the Russians are slowly winning this. You highlighted the piece from Jomini whose analysis is that the Russians are not really getting anywhere and that seems to be backed up by most other views. Russian equipment losses are running at over 3x Ukrainian according to Oryx.
Who honestly knows. @viewcode alerted us a while ago to this guys youtube commentry, which at face value seems very convincing.
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
On the contrary, I think there is a major lack of progress for the Russian forces at Kyiv, and Ukraine seems to have prevented encirclement from west and south. The counter attacks to the east of Kyiv in the direction of Chernihiv start to make the Russian forces look very exposed, particularly as their supply lines are very insecure.*
I think a disorderly Russian retreat from Kyiv could well be forced over the next 2 weeks, releasing a lot of Ukranian forces for the southern front. Retaking that will be difficult against Russian forces, as the Ukranian forces lack heavy weapons.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
And you get this searing analysis from Twitter. Or do you have a Tac HQ set up in one of your several spare rooms.
You have absolutely no idea what is happening in Ukraine. You don't know how the overall campaign is going for either side. You post a video of a (supposedly) Russian platoon in a contact and make wild claims about how this shows how the war is going.
You are not alone on PB of course but you should know better. Or perhaps not.
Yes, I am a doctor in the East Midlands with no military background.
However the core facts are out there. After 16 days the Russians have only captured one city (Kherson) while others, even those close to the border and apparently early objectives are still in Ukranian hands, albeit Mariopol is besieged.
The ubiquity of Social Media (though of course one needs to be aware of biases and sources) in this war gives anyone access to knowledge of what is happening at the fronts unprecedented in history.
"After 16 days..."
Fucking hell how long do you think the opposed invasion of a seemingly well-armed country usually takes.
Well, time will tell, but I don't think Russia can sustain a long campaign. I suspect that they will hold the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast, and add a bit to the Donbas, but not gain anything elsewhere.
As noted above what you suspect is of precisely zero value or use. But if it makes you feel better to assess the strategic possibilities of this war with absolutely no basis to do so, nor any credibility whatsoever then go for your life.
You do make yourself look like a complete twat, though.
A bit harsh. 75% of what goes on here on any subject is lightly educated guesswork.
Comments
As such the proposed Blaby, Oadby and Wigston seat (all suburbs south of the city of Leicester) is likely to have LDs as the main challenger. Loughborough will still be the most marginal, and a Labour target. The remaining Leicestershire seats will be safe for either Labour (3) or Conservative (5) in anything other than an electoral catastrophe for one side or other.
His gamble failing would be an enormous loss for Putin, with massive damage to his economy. What isn’t negotiable is Ukraine’s future as a sovereign state which isn’t controlled in any way by Russia.
Rebuilding Ukraine will cost many hundreds of billions; that will be the more important issue.
Moral of the story, “don’t dish it out if you can’t take it…..”
I like to think of England and Scotland as a middle-aged couple living in the suburbs. The mutual hatred is palpable. They did a pretty good job with the children—the world’s sexiest Empire, modern Industry, and parliamentary democracy—but now the children are gone, and all that’s left is a menopausal Scotland, England (who’s having a midlife crisis), and the family dog, Wales. The cracks are beginning to show: England has just bought a Harley Davidson but no crash helmet (Brexit), and Scotland has turned to pills (Glasgow). Something has got to give—it’s been separate bedrooms since 1997 (or Devolution as they call it). Somebody needs to bite the bullet and move out. Scotland, incidentally, thinks it should be her: she wants to run away and join her French lover, Emmanuel McRon, in the sensual paradise of a Brussels Travelodge. Ideally, Scotland would quite like to fleece England for all he’s worth and leave him paying the mortgage (National Debt). England, meanwhile, is being a bit of a mug and still tries to make an effort once in a while—although Michael Gove in an Aberdeen nightclub didn’t really have the intended aphrodisiac effect.
https://www.thesaint.scot/post/och-aye-the-noo-and-au-revoir
F1: updated Red Bull in the last day of testing.
Read yesterday the McLaren's having some brake problems, which isn't exactly ideal.
Edited extra bit: and Ricciardo has COVID-19.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDKH_FxFdrw
Also there is Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry. He concluded on Wednesday that the situation is basically hopeless and Ukraine should pretty much stop fighting; as Russia will just resort to using increasingly powerful bombs to pulverise Ukraine, in the face of difficulties with the ground war.
Of course these are just youtube talking heads. But the overriding analysis is that Russia is gradually moving towards an encirclement of and siege of Kiev by way of brutal, heavy bombardment.
Remember Ukraine is a big country and we are only 16 days in.
Not much future for Unionism there though.
BTW I am in that position personable having agreed to split with my wife in Jan - Just waiting my daughter to do her A-levels and go to university - Put the house on the market yesterday - Looking forward to a new phase in life and wont feel guilty either (as we have both done our parent duties (as article above) and both had enough of each other (or at least living with each other!)
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/11/1085427380/ukraine-nuclear-power-plant-zaporizhzhia?t=1647073206935
…A thorough review of a four-hour, 21-minute security camera video of the attack reveals that Russian forces repeatedly fired heavy weapons in the direction of the plant's massive reactor buildings, which housed dangerous nuclear fuel. Photos show that an administrative building directly in front of the reactor complex was shredded by Russian fire. And a video from inside the plant shows damage and a possible Russian shell that landed less than 250 feet from the Unit 2 reactor building.
The security camera footage also shows Russian troops haphazardly firing rocket-propelled grenades into the main administrative building at the plant and turning away Ukrainian firefighters even as a fire raged out of control in a nearby training building…
The best outcome for the US is a European Afghanistan that enervates Russia, both politically and economically, while keeping the EU in a state of constant anxiety which causes them to start taking care of their own security.
I think a disorderly Russian retreat from Kyiv could well be forced over the next 2 weeks, releasing a lot of Ukranian forces for the southern front. Retaking that will be difficult against Russian forces, as the Ukranian forces lack heavy weapons.
* this looks quite damning of Russian fighting capacity. Lightly armed Ukranian volunteer TDF capture a Russian SPG and two tanks.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1502428796317835270?t=QoAWNn-pB7OKQWAeauCrlA&s=19
"BREAKING: #Ukraine forces destroyed #Russia'n column near Chuguiv SE of #Kharkiv
acc Oleg Synegubov, the head of the Kharkiv OVA"
https://twitter.com/AlexandruC4/status/1502397218564759555
On the second, I disagree, but we will see.
These are tactical wins, though. They matter, but are not (for now) decisive.
Could be some kind of stalemate soon.
Or Putin just goes chemical and orders mass genocide.
There is no way of knowing what will happen to be honest.
I think people on both sides have forgotten to laugh at themselves - the Welsh come out far worse ...
Vasylkiv airfield, ammo cache, & oil depot hit by 8 Russian missiles at 7am, Vasylkiv Mayor Natalia Balasynovych tells me. “Airbase is completely destroyed,” she said.
@BuzzFeedNews was at scene. There’re casualties but authorities sorting thru rubble, trying to put out fire.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1502559536791834625
Timescales in major wars are not like that.
The historical precedent seems to me to be the timescale of the Soviet Ukraine offensive in the late Summer/Autumn of 1943 in the immediate aftermath of the German defeat in the Battle of Kursk. The Soviet Union bythen had decisive material superiority but it was anything but a cakewalk, with plenty of checks and local reverses. It took the Germans about 3 months between Kursk to advance from a similar starting point as now to a position where they were breaking out from bridgeheads on the other side of the Dnieper.
So, 3 months, not 16 days.
What matters is that Russia has overwhelming military force. The crux of the matter seems to me to hinge on whether, in the longer term, the US and Nato are willing to sanction supplies to the Ukrainians on a scale that can once again halt Russian efforts to renew their offensive and maintain the check in the longer term. Based on the backsliding witnessed over the past week, I am by no means convinced by that.
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1502557636050530305
Don't believe me? Go sunbathing on the beach when its -5 degrees and 30 degrees and see if the difference of degree seems significant.
Roger Hutchinson
@RogerMiles
The Russian Embassy in Lisbon. Two neighbouring houses are projecting the blue and yellow onto its facade. The ambassador is reportedly “apoplectic”.
https://twitter.com/RogerMiles/status/1502241612101046275
In war, three-quarters turns on personal character and relations; the balance of manpower and materials counts only for the remaining quarter."
(although his using his Spanish campaign to make his point perhaps wasn't the most fortuitous choice)
Excluding idiom, neologisms and slang they have about 80% commonality in vocabulary though with a surprising number of false friends. The alphabets are 90% common as both have 33 letters and each has 3 letters the other doesn't but there is no hard sign in Ukrainian. Grammar is almost the same but Russian has no past continuous tense.
I'd rate it about the same as Spanish/Portuguese. A native speaker of one could definitely make themselves understood to the other although almost all Ukranians have some knowledge of Russian.
One really striking thing about this war is how poor Russian command and control is. The initial days were scripted up to a year in advance, but the piecemeal and uncoordinated attacks since that plan stumbled suggest that there is no strategic plan left.
OK that's probably not technically possible, but would be appropriate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQLM62r5nLI
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1502553743325282304
You have absolutely no idea what is happening in Ukraine. You don't know how the overall campaign is going for either side. You post a video of a (supposedly) Russian platoon in a contact and make wild claims about how this shows how the war is going.
You are not alone on PB of course but you should know better. Or perhaps not.
If you’re talking about their nuclear capability then sure, although quite how relevant that is for taking and holding Ukraine is debatable. But in terms of the practical strength of the conventional forces available to them on Ukraine, why are you convinced?
As for Russia having overwhelming military force: if you are talking non-conventional (NBC), then yes, absolutely. If you are talking about conventional forces, then it is slightly more even, especially as Ukraine are defending and have home advantage. Russia has many more troops and much more material than Ukraine, but it also has a vast border to protect and external obligations - it cannot put all its troops in Ukraine.
There is also the politics of going all-in on what is just a 'special operation' against a non-existential (for Russia) threat, and the fact the troops they have sent in so far have performed poorly compared to expectations.
The politics of this is also much harder for Russia - even internally. Then there are the economic effects. Both Russia and Ukraine will be hurting for different reasons, but Ukraine won't care - they're fighting an existential crisis.
I really doubt Russia can keep this sort of pressure up for three months. Ukraine might be able to.
Obviously deeper seated issues as to why we split but politics brought it to a head !
However the core facts are out there. After 16 days the Russians have only captured one city (Kherson) while others, even those close to the border and apparently early objectives are still in Ukranian hands, albeit Mariopol is besieged.
The ubiquity of Social Media (though of course one needs to be aware of biases and sources) in this war gives anyone access to knowledge of what is happening at the fronts unprecedented in history.
Both Russia and Ukraine can lose big.
People are too used to 24 news cycles. And then if they have a bit of time to spare, rather fancy themselves as the Clausewitz of our day.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/11/vladimir-putin-war-britain-refugees?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1646978567
It's quite life affirming to realise that not everyone in the UK who can get their voices heard are like Patel and Johnson though the visa debacle is going to leave a stain on the UK which will take a long while to wash out.
PS. Worth listening till it finishes. it ends with a beautiful piece by Prokofiev
Vaguely on topic, one of the key questions must be the impact of higher energy prices. Thankfully, some of the sky-high numbers from earlier in the week have receded but we now have WTI only just under $110 a barrel and Brent at $112 overnight.
This time last year we were at $60 a barrel (two years ago, at the height of the pandemic, you couldn't give away a barrel of oil).
Russia is the world's third largest oil producer (after UAE and Saudi) and produced, pre-conflict, around 11% of the world's production.
As we know, there is a hypersensitivity to fuel prices in the UK and US (among others) so the issue is, what happens to those fuel and energy prices as the conflict continues and what are or will be the political consequences of a sustained period of higher energy prices?
As always, more questions than answers - would a sudden end to the conflict mean a sudden reversal of the current sanctions? If Putin fell and a new Russian Government announced a unilateral ceasefire and withdrawal from Ukraine back to status quo ante bellum, how would the West respond? Cautiously but in time you'd see the sanctions being eased if a new Russian Government continued to act in good faith.
That's the most optimistic scenario and not very likely at this time.
It seems more probable the conflict will grind on and the sanctions will continue - that means the new higher prices will be here to stay and costs leading to higher prices leading in turn to demands from organised labour for higher wages which will in turn raise costs and prices and so on.
Politically, it always looks good for Governments to stand up to organised labour (and few enjoy transport strikes) but at the same time the rising costs of goods and services does impact a Government negatively (whose fault is it anyway?). Nobody likes paying more for the same let alone for less.
The response might be to cut public spending (and with irresistible calls for increased defence spending, a wise man might argue the increase in fuel duty coming from increased pump prices could be used to improve said defences) and raise taxes, neither of which is guaranteed to be popular even if, in truth, any Opposition would be struggling to do any better.
Fucking hell how long do you think the opposed invasion of a seemingly well-armed country usually takes.
Very clear that HMG is desperate to avoid taking even one-tenth of that number.
The poll is a week old, and it would be interesting to know how opinion is shifting. Rallying to the flag or growing discontent?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-war-in-ukraine-might-change-putins-popularity-among-russians/
May also add up to more potential contact.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEjEGbAFzJU
And of course it is a question of expectations - in an existential fight for its existence extracting a higher cost to the initial invasion than Russia planned, which will have an impact on what it intended in the long term, is not insigificant. Who can say? Not you or I (and frankly I doubt any current military person does either). Credible reports are that Russia expected to be have achieved quite a bit more within that space of time.
Wariness at assuming this opening phase means all is going badly for Russia/well for Ukraine is certainly advisable though.
I'm not sure why you say Russia needs a short war or indeed what constitutes short. 15 days?
Of course wild speculation on matters we know nothing about is PB's thing but that's not too say it isn't irritating as all get out.
The challenge is taking 1.3m Ukrainian refugees on top of the steady stream of arrivals from the third world.
However they would need SNP confidence and supply to make Starmer PM.
Labour can likely only win a majority if they have a significant lead in the Midlands too
You still have to think that the Russians will take over in the end if only by massive force majeure, and it is likely to be the most Pyrrhic of victories now.
I keep looking at the weather and hope for an early spring in the Ukraine which will disaadvantage the heavy Rusian guns, but it still looks like it's a good ten days off. That's a long time to hold out,
Kemp currently leads Abrams by 4.5% on average and Perdue by 2.5%
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Georgia_gubernatorial_election
You do make yourself look like a complete twat, though.
Probably a reasonably realistic assessment from the (Ukrainian) Governor of Mykolaiv. "We are winning this fight, but not this war".
We know 10 per cent of what is happening, and it is very hard to work out the truth from the 10 per cent (which is likely highly skewed). The first casualty of War is Truth.
All warfare thrives on deceit & credulity.
And there is deceit on both sides, as it serves the greater purpose of the war. And there is credulity on both sides, as it serves the greater purpose of the war.
The piece right at the end was Stravinsky which was indeed glorious.
One thing I do notice here in Staffordshire - and I have no idea whether it's typical of the Midlands' former industrial areas, but it strikes me as a curious inversion of the national norm - is that Labour's voters and activists are mostly very elderly ex-union types. The candidate they put up here in 2019 was 77 years old. They couldn't find anyone younger. Watching them leafleting in Cannock town centre was like watching an OAPs' association.
Tory voters are mostly quite a bit younger and work in the lighter industrial firms. They are not bothered about pensions, or savings. Or unions or very often politics in general. What they want is enough money in their pay packets to cover their bills, including nice shiny toys like new iPhones.
So clobbering them with an NI rise is actually a very silly idea, especially as those bills go up substantially.
Does that mean Labour can recover? Not necessarily. See about the hollowed out activist base again. But the Tories shouldn't be in any way complacent.
Don't know if it's typical or just a fluke of Staffs' peculiar circumstances. So treat with caution.
It is a long time since I used to frequent Solihull and environs, but my memory of the Midlands is that they are rather disdainful of folk from further south.
Thread.
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1502237363061284869
5-6m seems like a reasonable starting point which is 1% of Europe's population (incl the UK and non EU European countries). So on an even basis, assuming zero to the rest of the world, the UK would take 700k.
However it is logical and sensible that the countries closest to Ukraine will take in the most. UK being more expensive to live in will be a disincentive to come here for those looking to return home fairly quickly, and housing density and levels of unoccupied accommodation is another factor.
I'd say 100-200k is an appropriate number for the UK to take in based on above, but also contribute much more financially beyond that to the likes of Poland, Romania and Moldova who will naturally take the highest shares due to geography.
(75% does sound a bit low to me though, particularly for my output)