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Does Trump still tower over the GOP? Georgia 2022 – politicalbetting.com
Does Trump still tower over the GOP? Georgia 2022 – politicalbetting.com
Back in 2020 there was a lot of pre-election excitement about Texas flipping blue. But on election day and onwards the attention turned to events in Georgia. Democrats hadn’t come within 5% of winning the state since the Clinton era (won in ’92, just lost in ’96) but Democrats won it by the narrowest of margins. Then, after both senate seats went to run-offs, they flipped them both too.
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Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
@IAPonomarenko
Ukrainian intelligence: 18 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) have lost their combat capability in action, 13 more have been completely destroyed.
In general, Russia was believed to have had a total of 120-125 BTGs deployed against Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1502403764787032070
Though i doubt anyone has told the poor sods how cold it is in Ukr in March.
https://twitter.com/londonsymphony/status/1501513150079897607?s=20&t=HnJRnl_XP2sSIzqN8G0DGQ
Georgia was such a positive result for Democrats in 2020 it is hard to avoid Quincel's conclusion that they won't be so lucky this time.
"Illia Bondarenko had to film this between explosions, because he could not hear himself play"
Searingly beautiful, and haunting, and true, and piercing, and makes me want to cry, and will win more hearts and minds for Ukraine than a zillion average agitprop campaigns
According to the Center for Responsive Politics, this campaign was the most expensive in U.S. Senate history, with over $468 million spent
I know it was for effective control of the Senate, but Jesus Christ that is just too much money.
Personally, I think Kemp will win the nomination (Perdue essentially is a loser given what happened) and he’ll beat Abrams again. Abrams will then complain about voter suppression etc etc
The brittleness of the Russian BTG had been extensively observed and analysed prior to the invasion. The big question is what Russia will do next.
I understand the need to officially delegitimise soldiers deserting to fight for Ukraine.
I really hope the official side is for show.
I want any soldier brave enough to fight for Ukraine given whatever legal cover they need.
There should already be a base for these guys in Poland. With a million Ukrainian army uniforms. A million Ukrainian passports. And a Ukrainian language centre teaching important phrases like..
Слава Україні!
and
Російський воєнний корабель, іди нахуй!
Mark Kermode and Simon Mayo are ending their 5 Live film show
https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-60705765
"The rule of thumb is that when a unit loses around 1/3 of its paper strength, it is effectively destroyed. For a 800-man Russian BTG, that amounts to just 3 tanks and around 20 other armored vehicles /4 https://t.co/RufUjEtHNV"
https://twitter.com/raguileramx/status/1499153985659453450?t=IQMzTmeHi0qSMKCwFo0IeA&s=19
"China’s “zero-tolerance” strategy to stamp out coronavirus appears to have failed catastrophically in Hong Kong, with the city now suffering the highest weekly death rates in the world.
"Thousands of people, mostly the elderly and the unvaccinated, have contracted the highly transmissible Omicron and Delta variants this month as new infections have risen to about 30,000 a day despite a drastic lockdown and border controls.
"Millions of people are also enduring lockdowns in mainland China as clusters of new cases of Covid-19 are reported. However, public health experts warned yesterday that the Beijing government’s long-standing policy of mass testing and strict isolation to quell any hint of an outbreak was “doomed to fail” against the Omicron strain."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hong-kong-health-system-failing-as-covid-death-rate-surges-9j85ztht7
My favourite fact about the recent trend of US elections is that Buttiegieg could run for President in 2056 and still be younger than Biden was, and Ossof could run in 2064 and still do it.
Incidentally, Biden was first elected to the Senate when he was only 29, but in the picture on the wiki page for it he still looks about 45.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_United_States_Senate_election_in_Delaware
I don't want to get into a lengthy discussion about the claims on each side since it doesn't achieve anything and there are endless sites on the web where we can argue politics endlessly. I come here to talk betting if possible.
Thought if you want to spend the rest of the night (and other nights) arguing about it I won't try and stop you.
If I were in a marginal like Loughborough, I would vote Labour, but in my seat of, it is less clear. Indeed with the new seat boundaries Oadby and Wigston could be an LD gain.
"Abu Tow: Meet the famed and feared Syrian rebel who wants to help the Ukrainians fight the Russians out"
https://english.alaraby.co.uk/features/meet-famed-and-feared-elite-syrian-rebel-fighter-abu-tow
That stat about how long Ossoff has to make a run makes me certain that he'll be a President one day.
"Earlier, Belarusian and #Ukrainian independent media reported that hospitals in southern #Belarus were allegedly overfilled with the bodies of the Russian soldiers. “The bodies are not even taken to a refrigerator, but to an ordinary room - 5x5 m2, they are stored there for a while, they rot, stink - then bodies are taken away somewhere. No one knows how many dead bodies there are, but everyone is horrified by what's happening. Doctors think that somewhere there is a mobile crematorium or they just bury them somewhere".
My values have been sort of kaleidoscoped in the last last fortnight.
I'm prepared to risk nuclear war and employ possible jihahdis to beat Putin.
Just watched Russia’s main political talk show with notorious propagandist Soloviev (Mar 9). Couldn’t believe my ears. Two hardcore pro-Putin guests - Shaknazarov and Bagdasarov - acknowledged the impact of sanctions, military failures, and called for an end to the invasion.
https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177
Putin needs to have someone to blame all this on...
Aeroflot is one example. They are set to default on all their aircraft leases and it is unlikely that they will ever get aircraft leases again from the west. Any aircraft they have done maintenance on themselves are now unflyable outside of Russia. Basically Aeroflot is very likely a dead airline now, it just has not stopped twitching yet.
Russian industry will be in ruins for months, possibly years
It feels a bit like placing Pascal's wager. I'm not expecting to win - but it would be great if I unexpectedly happened to collect. And tragically I could end up losing the bet without actually feeling the financial loss, if Putin escalates to the point where Smarkets don't get to settle the market (and we are all goners!).
But the likeliest outcome is that I lose the bet and most of us still survive. In this case there is no "Excluded Middle".
At the same time, though, the military do seem to be making some progress now, and the air strikes are reaching out further into the west. The Ukrainian successes have an anecdotal flavour, while they're losing ground a few km a day. It's hard to read.
I don't think Putin can. His days are numbered if he did.
If Russia was to climb down now, I can't see anyone viewing the country as a joke for the next two decades. The already slow decline of population would only increase.
That said, neither Lewis or Stacey called for altering the outcome after the fact via nullifying the results, overthrowing popular votes, substituting legislative fiat and, when that didn't work, promoting a violent invasion of the United States Capitol.
Which IS to THEIR credit, don't you think? Betya Mike Pence does.
And I was totally wrong, it appears.
Which is NOT same as saying I've lost faith in Biden. For one thing, he knows better than me (low bar!) the real facts, considerations, etc. involved, on global stage and inside the (dreaded) Beltway.
For another, think Ukrainians, Europe, the West and ultimately the World need for him to succeed in helping Zelensky & Ukrainians AND actually containing (if not eliminating) Putin & his truly Evil Empire.
But, again, was wrong on the fighters, thus my legendary infallibility has been punctured . . . yet again . . .
If Ukraine agrees to a simple ceasefire at that point they will find it incredibly difficult to recover from the war. Many of their eastern cities will be isolated. Much of the country's electricity generation capacity will be in Russian hands. There would be the constant threat of the ceasefire collapsing. Many of the nation's citizens would be left at the mercy of the Russian police in places like Kherson or Melitopol.
But if the Ukrainians do not agree to a ceasefire at that point, then the Russians continue to pulverise Kharkiv and can threaten to do to Chernihiv what is being done to Mariupol.
Covid controversies, economic concerns, cultural & ethnic conflicts, political gridlock and resulting Biden slump, have fed Republican hopes and Democratic fears, that Dem > Rep swing will be substantial enough to reverse victories posted in GA by President Biden in Nov 2020 and Senators Ossoff and Warnock in Jan 2021.
But two things stand in the way of this scenario:
> Across USA, major Republican primary battles ongoing & developing between candidates vying for 45's favor, and those who are aligning with McConnell or trying to play GOP version of dodge ball; which is seriously impeding GOP in forming united front to focus on capitalizing their current (and historic) mid-term advantage and beating the Democrats in the fall.
> In GA the GOP has NOT been polling as well as in most other states via Democratic incumbents, with Biden/Dem slump seemingly having less impact, though these polls were prior to Putin's invasion AND resultant surge in gasoline prices & etc.
So hope is still alive for Raphael Warnock and the Democrats in midst (or mist?) of that rainy night in Georgia . . .
No war on front of Mail or Sun. And not really the star either. Guardian has Macron lambasting the Uk. Camilla Tominey on front telegraph has “Ukraine crisis has humiliated the EU”. Telegraph also have something my Pastor said to me today, the war likely lead to starvation in Africa. 😢
The Star has India firing a missile at Pakistan in error. It gets darker still, on front of FT “My husband is not replying to my messages, my hands shake.” The i “Putin closes in on Kyiv - in the city’s outskirts Russians are targetting people who come out for food leaving the streets littered with bodies” ☹️
The times has a lovely girl kitted out and ready, smiling in a trench. I’ve checked out all her kit. I have idea to turn that amazing picture into a painting - either serious one, or set it in a propaganda piece like a robert mcginnis movie poster “Putin, my part in his downfall”. Telegraph has “Biden vetoed Mig deal personally” but there is enough opposition to force him into a climb down. 40 republicans senators have signed a joint letter insisting on reversal, and the move has more than enough support from Democrats too. So, I might be the first poster to bring news that deal is on again, this bit of help Ukraine needs might well be coming soon. Leaving this round up on a much needed positive 🙂
https://twitter.com/RealDaveLively/status/1502351599469056005
This is just the setup. Once the false flag op goes off, these two will "reluctantly" support a life and death struggle vs Ukraine and their western masters. They're just here to mimic existing critiques and then shepherd those critics over.
To make my own views clear: Putin's Russia are the aggressor in this. It is rare to get a war where the good vs bad ratio is so clearly marked - and it is marked against Nick's old friends.
Any deal must - at the very least - leave a defended and viable Ukrainian state that can rebuild without a significant threat from its eastern neighbour. Anything else just leave Ukraine and the world open to Round 2 in a few years.
This is not whataboutery. It is literally the same thing. Football owner + bloody war = undesirable. This is genuine equivalence. An estimated 10,000 children have been killed or maimed in Yemen. Shouldn’t someone in football also care about it just a little? Alan? Are there, like, any more videos?
Whilst I'm not sure it's sensible to be overly critical of Roman Abramovich, and the situation in Yemen is terrible, there is no equivalence with what's happening in Ukraine.
Football doesn't care as long as the money keeps rolling in. The politicians don't care as football is popular, and success makes people feel good.
If you were to get rid of the corruption in football, you would also get rid of a lot of the money. And too many people are making money in football.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/11/watch-kamala-harris-laughs-press-conference-ukrainian-refugees/
I'm not sure many people make money from football. Ironically, I reckon Abramovich might be an exception (leaving aside the fact he isn't going to recognize that profit), but he is very much the exception to the rule.
I wouldn't have a problem with the league being much more cautious about who owns our clubs, but I think people like Ronay try to use football to equivocate between Russia and Saudi Arabia, and that's clearly bollocks.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/03/11/jeremy-hunt-calls-massive-boost-uk-defence-spending/
The money flushes through all parts of the system. Agents' deals are just one example. Far too many deals in football at all levels are opaque - and that lack of clarity is perfect for corruption.
I have a general starting position: any deal where large sums are involved, and where the deal is opaque, is open to corruption - unless there are rigorous external reviews of it.
(Years ago, there was a debate on R5L about corruption in football. On it, they had an ex-footballer, now a commentator, a football agent, and a manager. Naturally, they all denied there was any corruption at all.)
As for agents, sadly that's the way it's going to be. The top footballers possess a very rare talent. There's only one Erling Braut Haaland and he's decided that Mino Raiola is the man who will negotiate the best deal for him.
I read the Football Leaks book and it's perhaps not a surprise that many footballers try to dodge tax, but I'm not sure that's unusual for people with a lot of money.
Conveniently this statement just piles further pressure on him.
The former prime minister assumed that he could separate Putin’s acts of aggression in eastern Europe from Russia and the UK’s shared interests.
By Freddie Hayward"
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2022/03/how-far-is-david-cameron-to-blame-for-putins-aggression
YouGov are the only one I really put much faith in when it comes to geographical breaks, and their most recent findings are even worse than that Deltapoll for Northern Tory MPs:
London
Lab 55%
Con 26%
LD 11%
Grn 6%
Ref 1%
Rest of South
Con 41%
Lab 31%
LD 13%
Grn 8%
Ref 5%
Midlands/Wales
Lab 39%
Con 35%
Grn 7%
LD 7%
Ref 6%
PC 3%
North
Lab 49%
Con 28%
Grn 9%
LD 7%
Ref 3%
Scotland
SNP 44%
Con 22%
Lab 21%
Grn 6%
LD 5%
Ref 1%
(YG; Sample Size: 1,700; Fieldwork: 8- 9 March 2022)
I think the error is to believe that there can be any meaningful 'deal' with Putin's regime. Their words mean nothing, and any 'assurances' they give should be disregarded as meaningless. No agreement with them is worth the paper it is written on.
It is a bit like trying to reason with an angry child, they only respond to actions. The sanctions have clearly had an effect, this time around. Looks like there has also been quite a bit of damage to their military capabilities, thanks to Ukraine.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/04/david-cameron-and-great-sell-out
Edit- this bit of the article was particularly prophetic
"Russia, increasingly a Eurasian regional power operating under Chinese leadership, is making menacing moves towards Ukraine. But how Vladimir Putin’s shaky popularity in Russia would be affected by a hotter war there cannot be known."
It doesn’t really matter much for the May elections, but if one or the other of the main Unionist parties gets a clear lead it will heavily affect media coverage. This is a dangerous period for the Scottish Tories. Douglas Ross has made a total arse of himself and they are in serious danger of sinking back down to their core vote, approx 15-18%. That’ll be cemented if Sarwar’s party have a good 2022.
I really don’t think she’s good enough a leader to be the Democrat’s presidential candidate, and gives them a real problem whether or not Biden runs again.
I think however the conclusion was that it is unfair to criticise it, because it is 'the natural position of her face'.
It is known as the 'resting smirk'.
vogue.co.uk/news/article/priti-patel
(I’d also note that they supply drone tech to Russia which they refuse, along with any other weapons, to Ukraine.)
Bennett advises Zelensky to surrender to Russia, Zelensky refuses
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-701041
Vast swathes of Scotland are deserts for the Lib Dems. I’m assuming that their membership numbers must be very patchy in England too.
The team led by researchers from the University of Edinburgh in the UK in partnership with Genomics England sequenced the genomes of 7,491 patients from 224 intensive care units in the UK.
Their DNA was compared with 48,400 other people who had not had COVID-19, and that of a further 1,630 people who had experienced mild disease.
https://wap.business-standard.com/article-amp/current-affairs/uk-scientists-identify-genetic-factors-behind-severe-covid-symptoms-122030800813_1.html
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1502528320369569792?t=XP86wd7Kfc4BIfH2ViMhYg&s=19
In summary it looks as if the Russian encirclement of Kyiv has stalled, and even been reversed in places, with significant Ukranian counterattacks to the east of the city. The Russians don't seem to have made progress on other bits of the northern front.
On the Southern front there are seems more Russian gains on the Donbas area, and an attempt to consolidate south of the Dneiper, with Mariopol being besieged rather than assaulted. The attack from land and sea on Odesa still hasn't materialised. Clearly logistics remain a major problem everywhere. Food is running out in Kherson for civilians as well as occupation troops.
I think the Russian war aims have been reduced to expanding in the Donbas and controlling the Kherson Oblast and Azov Coast. That is something they could paint as victory, but a ceasefire on that basis is not likely to be acceptable to Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502455753776504837
Used in Syria; warhead nearly half a tonne.
The engines for these were manufactured in Ukraine.
The Netanyahu government got quite cosy with Putin for years, and I doubt the current U.S. administration is particularly happy about that.
The previous one, of course….
The Russians are being comprehensively outfought, but their large advantage in numbers, and particularly in heavy weapons and aircraft, are telling in the south, where they have much easier supply lines - and Ukraine doesn’t.
I don’t know what a Russian ‘win’ would look like (if even possible), but an occupied Black Sea coast along with the east of the country would not be a win for Ukraine in any way.
He fails in an invasion. He doesn’t get to rebuild and try again. He must be seen to lose something.