I don't know whether anyone's written this — they must have done — but there's nothing wrong with being dependent on other countries for your energy sources provided they're fully democratic ones. The problem is being dependent on non-democratic countries, like Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, etc.
This is a bit starry-eyed imo.
It is only months since a Minister in the Government of France, Clement Beaune, was threatening to use restrictions of Electricity supplies to the UK / Jersey as a weapon in a political dispute.
This is despite a defined dispute resolution mechanism existing in the FTA.
The Minister was not sacked, and is apparently in good standing.
Fortunately we are (rather too slowly imo) pivoting away from any dependence on French electricity, which will gradually defang such threats.
A similar point could be made about the EU-Switzerland relationship.
The countries of the West need to get together and start to sign up to binding legal assurances on a range of issues of mutual dependency. Now we've seen who the real enemies are we need to get closer and more integrated, not less. It would be a disaster if the Western world started atomising.
(The one exception to this possibly being the US-European relationship given the risks of another Trump presidency, where some EU self-sufficiency might be sensible).
I can see some sense in that.
Horse trading will not stop, however.
Nor will our need to navigate around intra-EU disputes. It will be interesting to see how the €1m a day fine for Poland is resolved.
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
Seems like an action almost cunningly designed to provoke a pro-Russian response to me.
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
My first night back in London Saturday before last, I went to the LPO's "From Russia with Love" programme (Prokofiev and Rachmaninoff). The Director of Programmes introduced herself at the outset. She said her name, that she is a Jew born in Moscow with a Ukrainian husband. She said that the programme was developed 2 years ago with the purpose of showing that music can build bridges, and that that message was all the more pertinent given developments. She went into a long diatribe against Putin's regime, and pointed out that Prokofiev was born in Donetsk and that the Russians had destroyed the airport bearing his name. The orchestra then opened the proceedings with a stirring rendition of the Ukrainian national anthem, for which everyone stood.
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
I don't like the idea personally although the 1812 overture with its militaristic overtones would seem a little insensitive.
Let's not be daft. There are many great things about Russia.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris has correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back
I think your maths is a little screwy.
583 is 0.27% of 209,000
That's the fatality ratio being reported elsewhere, I believe. 0.3%
Three times worse than flu?
Enough to be problematic, given how obscenely infectious the BA2 Omicron variant seems to be
At the moment maybe 1 in 12 South Koreans have Covid
Why's it problematic? We lived with flu before this, we can live with a 0.3% fatality rate after this.
Though in reality the fatality rate is likely to be even lower since that only counts the reported positive tests as opposed to actual infections (the asymptomatic are less likely to be tested and reported than those sick enough to go to hospital and die). Plus the 0.3% probably disproportionately includes antivaxxers who've made their bed and can die in it.
Factor in vaccines and the asymptomatic and post-vaccine Covid is probably comparable to the flu, which we've always lived with.
Depends where you are in the world
Germany today:
#Covid_19 in Germany: 16242070 (+215854) (3363600 active) cases/124764 (+314) fatalities reported by @rki_de & @ProMED_mail as of 09 Mar nationwide CFR is 0.76%/ R value is 1.01 (0.97-1.05), approx. 12753700 (+228700) recoveries, 75.6% complete vaccinated.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris and this Tory government have correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back. Indeed by 73% to 22% Tory voters believe we must learn to live with Covid compared to just 22% who think we need to test more, wear masks more and vaccinate more
It is actually 0.0027, or 0.27%. You forgot to multiply by 100 to get to %. Now, of course, you will post an entirely different point to avoid this inconvenient fact.
Regardless it is miniscule, I could not care less what the case rate is given the death rate is so tiny
Being out by a factor of 100 is hardly miniscule.
Currently have my Brother & Sis-in-Law and 2 of their kids down with Covid - I haven't got it yet despite babysitting their kids the day before positive diagnosis. Other friend who has it and her husband and both their kids. Despite 3 jabs she had the "like breathing glue" experience and needed an emergency course of steroids to keep her airways open.
We need Covid swinging back like a hole in the head, it needs to go away.
I don't know whether anyone's written this — they must have done — but there's nothing wrong with being dependent on other countries for your energy sources provided they're fully democratic ones. The problem is being dependent on non-democratic countries, like Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, etc.
This is a bit starry-eyed imo.
It is only months since a Minister in the Government of France, Clement Beaune, was threatening to use restrictions of Electricity supplies to the UK / Jersey as a weapon in a political dispute.
This is despite a defined dispute resolution mechanism existing in the FTA.
The Minister was not sacked, and is apparently in good standing.
Fortunately we are (rather too slowly imo) pivoting away from any dependence on French electricity, which will gradually defang such threats.
A similar point could be made about the EU-Switzerland relationship.
The countries of the West need to get together and start to sign up to binding legal assurances on a range of issues of mutual dependency. Now we've seen who the real enemies are we need to get closer and more integrated, not less. It would be a disaster if the Western world started atomising.
(The one exception to this possibly being the US-European relationship given the risks of another Trump presidency, where some EU self-sufficiency might be sensible).
I can see some sense in that.
Horse trading will not stop, however.
Nor will our need to navigate around intra-EU disputes. It will be interesting to see how the €1m a day fine for Poland is resolved.
I don't see politics going away very much
Agreements can be broken. We need to be self sufficient in energy, no ifs or buts. We have the resources to do it.
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
That's utterly ridiculous.
Twats. Especially since Tchaikovsky was associated with linking Russia with the West, culturally.
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If we don't cancel "All the Things She Said" by Tatu can we put it in the context of "would be shit if not for the fact that its a Russian song about lesbian love which is proper edgy"
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
On topic, one thing that this crisis with Ukraine (and the Trump Presidency before it) has taught me is the advantage that a more collegiate Prime Ministerial system has over a Presidential one, in that it is more likely to prevent a leader from going completely off the rails, and to remove him if he does so.
Where a leader has a fixed term and a direct mandate from the people, and can only be removed, if at all, through clumsy measures like impeachment, and can surround themselves with yes men, they are obviously more likely to commit the country to catastrophes like a pointless foreign war. And you see that even in relatively benevolent systems like America's or France's, megalomania can take hold. While a Prime Minister in a Parliamentary system, who has to balance difficult factions and colleagues constantly to stay in power, cannot become completely divorced from reality.
Of course it's not as simple as that - Prime Ministers in this country with large majorities can become Presidential and megalomanical too, and they often find it more difficult than Presidents to get things done. But on balance, I think a Prime Ministerial system is much better than a Presidential one, because of the constraints it puts on the man at the top.
Covid's comeback is almost a welcome change from WW3 discourse to be honest.
What the last couple of months have shown extremely clearly is that there was only ever one truly gamechanging way of mitigating this pandemic, and that's vaccination (3 shots, including an MRNA booster). Everything else is a timing difference at best.
I don't think we should also overlook the highly effective antivirals coming online and also now 2-3 very cheap drugs to treat people in hospital that seem to also have a decent effect on reducing severity / death.
Hospitalisation used to be basically give them oxgyen and hope they don't get worse. Now there are some treatment options.
Yes, fair point. Pharmaceutical interventions (the right ones). As opposed to NPIs which always felt like a delaying tactic at best.
Russian historian on WATO sounding deranged. Putin has prevented a nuclear war, because Ukraine has the bomb almost ready to launch. Do they believe this, I wonder? Regardless, the psychology is fascinating. As is the belief anyone will buy this. The problem with fake news is it becomes less effective.over time. Because people simply shrug and say fake news. Haven't the Russians factored that in? Apparently not.
A lot of Putin's moves seem like a parody of all the stupidest shit the Americans have done over the last 30 years.
Yeah.
It’s fascinating how bloody obvious it is - and that they think rehashing our bullshit will have currency.
Polico.com Playbook - Harris steps in the middle of a NATO standoff
A BIG MOMENT FOR HARRIS — At 7:30 a.m., VP KAMALA HARRIS departs for Warsaw, Poland, where she will be thrust into the middle of the first major standoff between NATO countries since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The backstory:
> Ukraine wants more planes — specifically Russian-made MiG-29 fighter jets, which its pilots know how to fly. . .
> But the decision to transfer the military hardware has been hampered by the same fraught question that shadows every effort by the U.S. and Europe to punish Russia and aid Ukraine: Will it escalate the conflict in a way that makes NATO a combatant against Russia?
> Despite the EU promise, Poland repeatedly said there was no transfer in the works.
> Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, frustrated that the West has steadfastly refused his request for a no-fly zone, made the Polish aircraft transfer a top priority, including in a weekend conversion with President JOE BIDEN and in a Zoom with senators and House members Saturday. . .
> But there was resistance inside the administration . . .“due to the complications in getting them over the border and into the hands of Ukrainian pilots.”
Then, on Tuesday, this shocking announcement from Poland, via press release: “The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Government, are ready to deploy — immediately and free of charge — all their MiG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America.” The statement added that Poland also “requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities” and asked “other NATO Allies — owners of MiG-29 jets — to act in the same vein.”
American and European officials were gobsmacked. Undersecretary of State VICTORIA NULAND, testifying before Congress when the announcement came, said that it “was a surprise move by the Poles.”
Later, Pentagon spokesman JOHN KIRBY rejected the Polish proposal. “The prospect of fighter jets ‘at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America’ departing from a U.S./NATO base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance,” he said. “It is simply not clear to us that there is a substantive rationale for it.” Noting “the difficult logistical challenges it presents,” he added, “we do not believe Poland’s proposal is a tenable one.” . . .
With tough sanctions in place, a Russian oil and gas embargo announced by Biden, and a no-fly zone ruled out, Zelenskyy’s desperate plea for the Polish MiGs is the most significant outstanding request from Ukraine.
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Shameful, or just a mistake as can happen in the cut and thrust? His point remains, that it's very low.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris and this Tory government have correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back. Indeed by 73% to 22% Tory voters believe we must learn to live with Covid compared to just 22% who think we need to test more, wear masks more and vaccinate more
It is actually 0.0027, or 0.27%. You forgot to multiply by 100 to get to %. Now, of course, you will post an entirely different point to avoid this inconvenient fact.
Regardless it is miniscule, I could not care less what the case rate is given the death rate is so tiny
Being out by a factor of 100 is hardly miniscule.
Currently have my Brother & Sis-in-Law and 2 of their kids down with Covid - I haven't got it yet despite babysitting their kids the day before positive diagnosis. Other friend who has it and her husband and both their kids. Despite 3 jabs she had the "like breathing glue" experience and needed an emergency course of steroids to keep her airways open.
We need Covid swinging back like a hole in the head, it needs to go away.
Which is why with all due respect you keep advocating delusional policies. You haven't yet accepted the reality that it isn't going away.
I hope for your sanity you can accept that soon and move on.
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Do I give a shit what you think? No. You are someone I don't agree with on barely anything and that includes this.
If I was doing a doctorate, which I am not and have not, then I might be calculating percentages more regularly based on what it was on but I am not.
I have not needed to calculate percentages to any significant degree since I was 16 doing GCSEs, if I am a little rusty and forgot to multiply by 100 in the middle of posts apologies, I am certainly not going to say it was 'shameful'
Totally OT, but I'm pleased to confirm that @Leon is right - the Stonehenge exhibition at the British Museum is outstanding. It wasn't especially busy this lunchtime, and it was a totally absorbing 2 hours of my time. It will definitely merit a second visit having had a good peruse of the exhibition book and a bit of deeper reading.
The best exhibition I've been to in years. I was also blown away by the Gold of the Steppe at the Fitzwilliam in Cbg so we are in a bit of high spot for the museum sector coming out of Covid.
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If we don't cancel "All the Things She Said" by Tatu can we put it in the context of "would be shit if not for the fact that its a Russian song about lesbian love which is proper edgy"
Don't know that one Guess it did not make it onto US radio stations. Perhaps if she'd done a Country and Western version it would have got more traction here.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris and this Tory government have correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back. Indeed by 73% to 22% Tory voters believe we must learn to live with Covid compared to just 22% who think we need to test more, wear masks more and vaccinate more
It is actually 0.0027, or 0.27%. You forgot to multiply by 100 to get to %. Now, of course, you will post an entirely different point to avoid this inconvenient fact.
Regardless it is miniscule, I could not care less what the case rate is given the death rate is so tiny
Being out by a factor of 100 is hardly miniscule.
Currently have my Brother & Sis-in-Law and 2 of their kids down with Covid - I haven't got it yet despite babysitting their kids the day before positive diagnosis. Other friend who has it and her husband and both their kids. Despite 3 jabs she had the "like breathing glue" experience and needed an emergency course of steroids to keep her airways open.
We need Covid swinging back like a hole in the head, it needs to go away.
My wife and sister had it, they were fine.
We are not going back to further restrictions, tough. Covid may well be here for the rest of our lifetimes, we need to learn to live with it unless a variant emerges that is really vaccine immune
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris has correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back
I think your maths is a little screwy.
583 is 0.27% of 209,000
That's the fatality ratio being reported elsewhere, I believe. 0.3%
Three times worse than flu?
Enough to be problematic, given how obscenely infectious the BA2 Omicron variant seems to be
At the moment maybe 1 in 12 South Koreans have Covid
Why's it problematic? We lived with flu before this, we can live with a 0.3% fatality rate after this.
Though in reality the fatality rate is likely to be even lower since that only counts the reported positive tests as opposed to actual infections (the asymptomatic are less likely to be tested and reported than those sick enough to go to hospital and die). Plus the 0.3% probably disproportionately includes antivaxxers who've made their bed and can die in it.
Factor in vaccines and the asymptomatic and post-vaccine Covid is probably comparable to the flu, which we've always lived with.
Depends where you are in the world
Germany today:
#Covid_19 in Germany: 16242070 (+215854) (3363600 active) cases/124764 (+314) fatalities reported by @rki_de & @ProMED_mail as of 09 Mar nationwide CFR is 0.76%/ R value is 1.01 (0.97-1.05), approx. 12753700 (+228700) recoveries, 75.6% complete vaccinated.
So 99.24% are not dying, even though no doubt much of the asymptomatic are getting missed from your denominator plus the deaths will include antivaxxers?
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
I don't know whether anyone's written this — they must have done — but there's nothing wrong with being dependent on other countries for your energy sources provided they're fully democratic ones. The problem is being dependent on non-democratic countries, like Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, etc.
This is a bit starry-eyed imo.
It is only months since a Minister in the Government of France, Clement Beaune, was threatening to use restrictions of Electricity supplies to the UK / Jersey as a weapon in a political dispute.
This is despite a defined dispute resolution mechanism existing in the FTA.
The Minister was not sacked, and is apparently in good standing.
Fortunately we are (rather too slowly imo) pivoting away from any dependence on French electricity, which will gradually defang such threats.
A similar point could be made about the EU-Switzerland relationship.
The countries of the West need to get together and start to sign up to binding legal assurances on a range of issues of mutual dependency. Now we've seen who the real enemies are we need to get closer and more integrated, not less. It would be a disaster if the Western world started atomising.
(The one exception to this possibly being the US-European relationship given the risks of another Trump presidency, where some EU self-sufficiency might be sensible).
I can see some sense in that.
Horse trading will not stop, however.
Nor will our need to navigate around intra-EU disputes. It will be interesting to see how the €1m a day fine for Poland is resolved.
I don't see politics going away very much
Agreements can be broken. We need to be self sufficient in energy, no ifs or buts. We have the resources to do it.
Agree absolutely. There's chatter about the UK as a net energy exporter by around 2040, but I'm not very convinced yet as much of it was generated by the Govt's White Paper in 2020.
The larger than expected renewable energy round in Scotland may make something of an extra difference by then if a large % of projects succeed.
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
Harris will land in Poland on a mission to rally NATO against Russian aggression. But her visit could now be dominated by the question of why the U.S. and Poland have fumbled the transfer deal.
On a call previewing the trip, a senior administration official conceded the issue would be front and center. “We have been in dialogue with the Poles for some time about how best to provide a variety of security assistance to Ukraine,” the official said. “And that’s a dialogue that absolutely will continue up to and as part of the vice president’s trip.”
SSI - sitting in my armchair, my view is that this is a critical juncture for Ukraine, NATO and (of course) Russia. Also for President Biden, and most certainly for Vice President Harris.
My personal expectation is that she will help broker an agreement that will provide planes to Ukraine some how, some way. Because for one thing, don't think Biden would have sent her out with any other expectation. Because the stakes are huge for both POTUS and VEEP, not to mention the rest of us across the world.
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
That's utterly ridiculous.
Twats. Especially since Tchaikovsky was associated with linking Russia with the West, culturally.
Cancelling Russian culture from 150 years ago.... ultimate virtue signalling. By similar idiotic logic, klitschko brothers must be villians as they were Russian born....
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
I don't like the idea personally although the 1812 overture with its militaristic overtones would seem a little insensitive.
Let's not be daft. There are many great things about Russia.
When the newspaper reviewers were telling me yesterday it’s brilliant McDonalds have pulled out as it can help ferment a revolution, Is it just me who found that to be gibberish and fear we might be helping the opposite to happen?
Another problem is how does all this that’s switched off in Russia get switched back on by us? Our government has been determined to tell us it’s not the Russian people it’s Putin’s regime, so the end of Putin regime would be the trigger to throw our arms around the Russians and turn it all back on again? but seems to me our government are losing on that message, the longer it goes on it’s becoming Russia, not Putin? We don’t know just how many Russians back what Putin has done, how many share the same opinion as ourselves about it, I sense quite a lot, but surely we need them as way out of this, yet targeting them, seemingly so they put the pressure on at home, is probably more nuanced than the rabid ruskiephobia now happening?
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris and this Tory government have correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back. Indeed by 73% to 22% Tory voters believe we must learn to live with Covid compared to just 22% who think we need to test more, wear masks more and vaccinate more
It is actually 0.0027, or 0.27%. You forgot to multiply by 100 to get to %. Now, of course, you will post an entirely different point to avoid this inconvenient fact.
Regardless it is miniscule, I could not care less what the case rate is given the death rate is so tiny
Being out by a factor of 100 is hardly miniscule.
Currently have my Brother & Sis-in-Law and 2 of their kids down with Covid - I haven't got it yet despite babysitting their kids the day before positive diagnosis. Other friend who has it and her husband and both their kids. Despite 3 jabs she had the "like breathing glue" experience and needed an emergency course of steroids to keep her airways open.
We need Covid swinging back like a hole in the head, it needs to go away.
Which is why with all due respect you keep advocating delusional policies. You haven't yet accepted the reality that it isn't going away.
I hope for your sanity you can accept that soon and move on.
We have surely all accepted that it is not going away. We will accept a certain number of deaths, as we do with Flu, and we will got on with life. I certainly hope that IS the case, I am personally done with restrictions. Never again!
But now we are, perhaps, presented with some different questions. What is happening in Hong Kong, South Korea, and - possibly - Germany? It is just low vax rates or rubbish Chinese vaccines in HK? Or is Omicron BA2 potentially a new menace to a number of countries - especially China? To what extent can it reinfect? What is the true CFR?
I wish we didn't have to ask these bloody tedious questions yet again, but maybe we do
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
That's utterly ridiculous.
Twats. Especially since Tchaikovsky was associated with linking Russia with the West, culturally.
Cancelling Russian culture from 200 years ago.... ultimate virtue signalling. By similar idiotic logic, klitschko brothers must be villians as they were Russian born....
Russian historian on WATO sounding deranged. Putin has prevented a nuclear war, because Ukraine has the bomb almost ready to launch. Do they believe this, I wonder? Regardless, the psychology is fascinating. As is the belief anyone will buy this. The problem with fake news is it becomes less effective.over time. Because people simply shrug and say fake news. Haven't the Russians factored that in? Apparently not.
A lot of Putin's moves seem like a parody of all the stupidest shit the Americans have done over the last 30 years.
Yeah.
It’s fascinating how bloody obvious it is - and that they think rehashing our bullshit will have currency.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris and this Tory government have correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back. Indeed by 73% to 22% Tory voters believe we must learn to live with Covid compared to just 22% who think we need to test more, wear masks more and vaccinate more
It is actually 0.0027, or 0.27%. You forgot to multiply by 100 to get to %. Now, of course, you will post an entirely different point to avoid this inconvenient fact.
Regardless it is miniscule, I could not care less what the case rate is given the death rate is so tiny
Being out by a factor of 100 is hardly miniscule.
Currently have my Brother & Sis-in-Law and 2 of their kids down with Covid - I haven't got it yet despite babysitting their kids the day before positive diagnosis. Other friend who has it and her husband and both their kids. Despite 3 jabs she had the "like breathing glue" experience and needed an emergency course of steroids to keep her airways open.
We need Covid swinging back like a hole in the head, it needs to go away.
Which is why with all due respect you keep advocating delusional policies. You haven't yet accepted the reality that it isn't going away.
I hope for your sanity you can accept that soon and move on.
I wasn't aware that I was advocating *any* policies, delusional or otherwise.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris and this Tory government have correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back. Indeed by 73% to 22% Tory voters believe we must learn to live with Covid compared to just 22% who think we need to test more, wear masks more and vaccinate more
It is actually 0.0027, or 0.27%. You forgot to multiply by 100 to get to %. Now, of course, you will post an entirely different point to avoid this inconvenient fact.
Regardless it is miniscule, I could not care less what the case rate is given the death rate is so tiny
Being out by a factor of 100 is hardly miniscule.
Currently have my Brother & Sis-in-Law and 2 of their kids down with Covid - I haven't got it yet despite babysitting their kids the day before positive diagnosis. Other friend who has it and her husband and both their kids. Despite 3 jabs she had the "like breathing glue" experience and needed an emergency course of steroids to keep her airways open.
We need Covid swinging back like a hole in the head, it needs to go away.
Which is why with all due respect you keep advocating delusional policies. You haven't yet accepted the reality that it isn't going away.
I hope for your sanity you can accept that soon and move on.
We have surely all accepted that it is not going away. We will accept a certain number of deaths, as we do with Flu, and we will got on with life. I certainly hope that IS the case, I am personally done with restrictions. Never again!
But now we are, perhaps, presented with some different questions. What is happening in Hong Kong, South Korea, and - possibly - Germany? It is just low vax rates or rubbish Chinese vaccines in HK? Or is Omicron BA2 potentially a new menace to a number of countries - especially China? To what extent can it reinfect? What is the true CFR?
I wish we didn't have to ask these bloody tedious questions yet again, but maybe we do
Or is it much ado about nothing?
Why do you care about daily hospitalisations of fewer than 0.001% of the population?
For Zero Covidiots it's a problem but for everyone else why not just accept that people get sick and move on?
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
I dunno. Of course it is nothing compared to potential nuclear war, but Covid has not entirely disappeared, and the global case rate is now ticking up after a period of decline. We may be entering another wave, they are definitely entering another wave in east Asia. Vietnam is also reporting record case numbers: 160,000 yesterday
The big question, as ever, is will it crush health systems. Korea and Vietnam seem to be doing OK.
Hong Kong is definitely not
"Body bags, overflowing morgues and chaotic hospitals: Hong Kong’s pandemic goes critical"
The crucial issue is whether China can keep Omicron out, and, if it can't, will it be South Korea (a nasty wave but not the apocalypse) or will it be Hong Kong (a horror show)
Flu has not entirely disappeared either and we still have a few deaths from winter flu but it does not overload the hospitals as Covid no longer does either post vaccination.
Whether China's vaccines work is a separate matter, for them the Hong Kong figures are not great but would be ironic if Covid was now largely non deadly outside China even if still deadly in China where it began
If China turns into Hong Kong, that is definitely a cause for concern for everyone, because it will screw up so many supply chains as they try to lockdown the whole country, yet again
The various headwinds against the world economy right now are decidedly non-optimal
Might you that also might leave the Chinese government too preoccupied to invade Taiwan, even if not great for the Chinese people or global economy
It would be a brilliant narrative twist, and a superbly apt denouement, (albeit cruel) if Covid's final act on this earth was to fuck up China, royally
It would convince me that we really are living in a simulation, and the simulators have great screenwriters
I don't think even in the worst case this would fuck up China royally. We know Omicron peaks quickly and goes quickly. It will be a bloody nuisance for them, but two months later they'll be over it. Presumably? That said, no doubt they will stretch it out with a long and fruitless series of lockdowns. Do you remember the early months of covid, with the lack of economic activity in China? Presumably that all over again, with the consequent knock-ons for supply chains and commodity prices.
Do you remember when POO went negative? A sudden slump in commodity prices would be typical of Russia's fortunes in this war.
Still an issue in some parts of the world. eg South Korea, once the poster boy of Covid control. They have just announced an extraordinary 342,000 new cases in one day, their highest ever, and one of the absolute biggest daily caseloads reported anywhere - eg India peaked about 400,000 a day, Brazil at about 250,000, and they are both vastly bigger than S Korea
it must be Omicron (BA2?) combined with a lack of prior immunity
And it is not some innocent explosion of mild colds, death rates are also shooting up dramatically (158 today, whereas S Korea is used to single digit death rates per day)
Combined with the 5th wave Covid calamity we are seeing in Hong Kong, this is deeply ominous for China.
They have zero prior immunity. As they keep telling us, proudly. If Omicron BA2 gets in to China, then it could be hellish for them; and it must be likely that it will do so, if it can easily cause such havoc in quarantined Hong Kong
Just to add to the joys of the world
When not if.
One of my family just contracted Omicron. Completely isolating (because of caring for an elderly relative) - literal 2 minute conversation at distance with someone who later tested positive.
Everyone is going to get this.....
Not necessarily, if you've been triple-vaxxed.
My own (unscientific) perspective is: The day after my mum died (non-covid), I spent the whole day my brother who was coughing, sneezing and feeling awful the whole time. I fully expected to catch his 'bad cold' but thankfully nothing - not a sniff(!)
Although he tested negative on LFTs, his GP suspected covid and we both think that's right, and that my 3 vaccinations protected me from catching it.
As I said, totally unscientific.
My 11 year old son got covid (almost certainly omicron) over New Year. We didn't engage in any social distancing at home, and neither my wife or I, nor our daughter got it.
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
That's utterly ridiculous.
Twats. Especially since Tchaikovsky was associated with linking Russia with the West, culturally.
Cancelling Russian culture from 200 years ago.... ultimate virtue signalling. By similar idiotic logic, klitschko brothers must be villians as they were Russian born....
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Do I give a shit what you think? No. You are someone I don't agree with on barely anything and that includes this.
If I was doing a doctorate, which I am not and have not, then I might be calculating percentages more regularly based on what it was on but I am not.
I have not needed to calculate percentages to any significant degree since I was 16 doing GCSEs, if I am a little rusty and forgot to multiply by 100 in the middle of posts apologies, I am certainly not going to say it was 'shameful'
All that we are suggesting is that for once - even if it is a one-time gig - you adopt a bit of humility and say "I was wrong".
This isn't about trying to catch you out, out you down, make some kind of bigger point. Just hoping for a bit of humanity in you to accept that we all say stupid now and then.
Alternately, digging your heels in and refusing to admit any error makes you look like the world's most pompous spanner.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris and this Tory government have correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back. Indeed by 73% to 22% Tory voters believe we must learn to live with Covid compared to just 22% who think we need to test more, wear masks more and vaccinate more
It is actually 0.0027, or 0.27%. You forgot to multiply by 100 to get to %. Now, of course, you will post an entirely different point to avoid this inconvenient fact.
Regardless it is miniscule, I could not care less what the case rate is given the death rate is so tiny
Being out by a factor of 100 is hardly miniscule.
Currently have my Brother & Sis-in-Law and 2 of their kids down with Covid - I haven't got it yet despite babysitting their kids the day before positive diagnosis. Other friend who has it and her husband and both their kids. Despite 3 jabs she had the "like breathing glue" experience and needed an emergency course of steroids to keep her airways open.
We need Covid swinging back like a hole in the head, it needs to go away.
Which is why with all due respect you keep advocating delusional policies. You haven't yet accepted the reality that it isn't going away.
I hope for your sanity you can accept that soon and move on.
We have surely all accepted that it is not going away. We will accept a certain number of deaths, as we do with Flu, and we will got on with life. I certainly hope that IS the case, I am personally done with restrictions. Never again!
But now we are, perhaps, presented with some different questions. What is happening in Hong Kong, South Korea, and - possibly - Germany? It is just low vax rates or rubbish Chinese vaccines in HK? Or is Omicron BA2 potentially a new menace to a number of countries - especially China? To what extent can it reinfect? What is the true CFR?
I wish we didn't have to ask these bloody tedious questions yet again, but maybe we do
It's vax rates among the older groups that is key - three jabs with top notch stuff and you're in a much better position.
Concerns were raised about take-up in some parts of Germany among older people, a while back.
Still an issue in some parts of the world. eg South Korea, once the poster boy of Covid control. They have just announced an extraordinary 342,000 new cases in one day, their highest ever, and one of the absolute biggest daily caseloads reported anywhere - eg India peaked about 400,000 a day, Brazil at about 250,000, and they are both vastly bigger than S Korea
it must be Omicron (BA2?) combined with a lack of prior immunity
And it is not some innocent explosion of mild colds, death rates are also shooting up dramatically (158 today, whereas S Korea is used to single digit death rates per day)
Combined with the 5th wave Covid calamity we are seeing in Hong Kong, this is deeply ominous for China.
They have zero prior immunity. As they keep telling us, proudly. If Omicron BA2 gets in to China, then it could be hellish for them; and it must be likely that it will do so, if it can easily cause such havoc in quarantined Hong Kong
Just to add to the joys of the world
When not if.
One of my family just contracted Omicron. Completely isolating (because of caring for an elderly relative) - literal 2 minute conversation at distance with someone who later tested positive.
Everyone is going to get this.....
Not necessarily, if you've been triple-vaxxed.
My own (unscientific) perspective is: The day after my mum died (non-covid), I spent the whole day my brother who was coughing, sneezing and feeling awful the whole time. I fully expected to catch his 'bad cold' but thankfully nothing - not a sniff(!)
Although he tested negative on LFTs, his GP suspected covid and we both think that's right, and that my 3 vaccinations protected me from catching it.
As I said, totally unscientific.
My 11 year old son got covid (almost certainly omicron) over New Year. We didn't engage in any social distancing at home, and neither my wife or I, nor our daughter got it.
We were all triple vaxxed, and were lucky.
Exactly the same in our house. 8yo daughter caught it (along with her friends). All the triple vaxxed parents got it in their households. Except myself and my partner.
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
The U.K. has had a long-standing policy of helping Ukraine, which given Russia’s use of nerve and radiological weapons on U.K. soil is to be commended.
Some of our European allies have been naive at best or wilfully blind at worst - but they all seem to have woken up to the threat now and are responding expeditiously. It’s team work.
Totally OT, but I'm pleased to confirm that @Leon is right - the Stonehenge exhibition at the British Museum is outstanding. It wasn't especially busy this lunchtime, and it was a totally absorbing 2 hours of my time. It will definitely merit a second visit having had a good peruse of the exhibition book and a bit of deeper reading.
The best exhibition I've been to in years. I was also blown away by the Gold of the Steppe at the Fitzwilliam in Cbg so we are in a bit of high spot for the museum sector coming out of Covid.
Ah. Pleased you enjoyed it!
I am going back again tomorrow for my second round, there was so much to absorb, I now realise I missed things, and it was really busy on Sunday - so I am hoping for fewer crowds
I've never been to an exhibition twice before. It really is that good
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris and this Tory government have correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back. Indeed by 73% to 22% Tory voters believe we must learn to live with Covid compared to just 22% who think we need to test more, wear masks more and vaccinate more
It is actually 0.0027, or 0.27%. You forgot to multiply by 100 to get to %. Now, of course, you will post an entirely different point to avoid this inconvenient fact.
Regardless it is miniscule, I could not care less what the case rate is given the death rate is so tiny
Being out by a factor of 100 is hardly miniscule.
Currently have my Brother & Sis-in-Law and 2 of their kids down with Covid - I haven't got it yet despite babysitting their kids the day before positive diagnosis. Other friend who has it and her husband and both their kids. Despite 3 jabs she had the "like breathing glue" experience and needed an emergency course of steroids to keep her airways open.
We need Covid swinging back like a hole in the head, it needs to go away.
Which is why with all due respect you keep advocating delusional policies. You haven't yet accepted the reality that it isn't going away.
I hope for your sanity you can accept that soon and move on.
We have surely all accepted that it is not going away. We will accept a certain number of deaths, as we do with Flu, and we will got on with life. I certainly hope that IS the case, I am personally done with restrictions. Never again!
But now we are, perhaps, presented with some different questions. What is happening in Hong Kong, South Korea, and - possibly - Germany? It is just low vax rates or rubbish Chinese vaccines in HK? Or is Omicron BA2 potentially a new menace to a number of countries - especially China? To what extent can it reinfect? What is the true CFR?
I wish we didn't have to ask these bloody tedious questions yet again, but maybe we do
With the emphasis on *maybe*. Nobody - despite BR saying so - is calling for any specific measures. Pointing to data and saying that it is a higher number than expected is not making any kind of political point - the joy of thins kind of data is that the number is the number and has no interest in posturing or positioning. It is what it is. And what it is is Covid not collapsing through the floor as billed.
Still an issue in some parts of the world. eg South Korea, once the poster boy of Covid control. They have just announced an extraordinary 342,000 new cases in one day, their highest ever, and one of the absolute biggest daily caseloads reported anywhere - eg India peaked about 400,000 a day, Brazil at about 250,000, and they are both vastly bigger than S Korea
it must be Omicron (BA2?) combined with a lack of prior immunity
And it is not some innocent explosion of mild colds, death rates are also shooting up dramatically (158 today, whereas S Korea is used to single digit death rates per day)
Combined with the 5th wave Covid calamity we are seeing in Hong Kong, this is deeply ominous for China.
They have zero prior immunity. As they keep telling us, proudly. If Omicron BA2 gets in to China, then it could be hellish for them; and it must be likely that it will do so, if it can easily cause such havoc in quarantined Hong Kong
Just to add to the joys of the world
When not if.
One of my family just contracted Omicron. Completely isolating (because of caring for an elderly relative) - literal 2 minute conversation at distance with someone who later tested positive.
Everyone is going to get this.....
Not necessarily, if you've been triple-vaxxed.
My own (unscientific) perspective is: The day after my mum died (non-covid), I spent the whole day my brother who was coughing, sneezing and feeling awful the whole time. I fully expected to catch his 'bad cold' but thankfully nothing - not a sniff(!)
Although he tested negative on LFTs, his GP suspected covid and we both think that's right, and that my 3 vaccinations protected me from catching it.
As I said, totally unscientific.
My 11 year old son got covid (almost certainly omicron) over New Year. We didn't engage in any social distancing at home, and neither my wife or I, nor our daughter got it.
We were all triple vaxxed, and were lucky.
Yes, my middle daughter has recently had it (again - it was delta last time). None of the rest of us did. Wife and I are vaxxed but none of the kids are old enough yet to have been. That said, oldest daughter did have a nasty cold. But tested negative throughout. I suspect through vaccination and/or repeated exposure we are all brimming with antibodies at the moment.
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
What has Boris actually done for the people of Ukraine others havn’t, to be say twice that of Biden?
He backed them from the start and got Biden and others involved who weren't sure they wanted to be.
Some may not like it, but he's been genuinely world leading here and that's for the betterment of the world and Ukraine especially.
To be fair, he didn't start this policy though he's the one who led the West this year on this, Theresa May (whom I'm not a fan of in general) and David Cameron both deserve credit too. Britain has been a key partner for Ukraine for years now.
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If we don't cancel "All the Things She Said" by Tatu can we put it in the context of "would be shit if not for the fact that its a Russian song about lesbian love which is proper edgy"
Don't know that one Guess it did not make it onto US radio stations. Perhaps if she'd done a Country and Western version it would have got more traction here.
We really need more analysis of the short term hit to the Russian economy. The sanctions seem impressive but what will this mean to everyday Russians now?
This long but excellent thread is helpful. Explains how Russia works as a mafia state, menacing others, and lying to itself
‘Let's discuss Russian economy. Many underestimate its dependency upon technological import. Russia's so deeply integrated into Western technological chains that severing these ties will lead to its collapse. Sanctions are already effective and can be made even more efficient🧵’
Much to chew on, but the economic takeaway is that Russia is fucked. What little machinery and tech it does produce is reliant on western (and Chinese) components. It will become seriously poor rather quickly. They might not even be able to maintain oil and gas production
Also makes the point that, as a mafia state reliant on the threat of violence, the Ukraine war was a rational act. It had worked before. But Putin underestimated the western reaction, Ukrainian resistance - and believed the lies told him, about the state of his own army
I've avidly read his output since seeing a reference in a post here. Fascinating and very convincing analysis.
Yes, excellent analysis. For anyone who is intrigued by this approach to understanding organizational and governance structures, and their relationship to how we conceive of ourselves and the world, I highly recommend Frederic Laloux's most excellent book, Reinventing Organizations
I've always wondered why the Mexican cartels got into avocados. I mean, avocados?!They aren't illegal and they aren't expensive. Avocados??? That thread explains why
Someone could write a great thriller about Avocados.
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
I don't like the idea personally although the 1812 overture with its militaristic overtones would seem a little insensitive.
Let's not be daft. There are many great things about Russia.
When the newspaper reviewers were telling me yesterday it’s brilliant McDonalds have pulled out as it can help ferment a revolution, Is it just me who found that to be gibberish and fear we might be helping the opposite to happen?
Another problem is how does all this that’s switched off in Russia get switched back on by us? Our government has been determined to tell us it’s not the Russian people it’s Putin’s regime, so the end of Putin regime would be the trigger to throw our arms around the Russians and turn it all back on again? but seems to me our government are losing on that message, the longer it goes on it’s becoming Russia, not Putin? We don’t know just how many Russians back what Putin has done, how many share the same opinion as ourselves about it, I sense quite a lot, but surely we need them as way out of this, yet targeting them, seemingly so they put the pressure on at home, is probably more nuanced than the rabid ruskiephobia now happening?
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If we don't cancel "All the Things She Said" by Tatu can we put it in the context of "would be shit if not for the fact that its a Russian song about lesbian love which is proper edgy"
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Do I give a shit what you think? No. You are someone I don't agree with on barely anything and that includes this.
If I was doing a doctorate, which I am not and have not, then I might be calculating percentages more regularly based on what it was on but I am not.
I have not needed to calculate percentages to any significant degree since I was 16 doing GCSEs, if I am a little rusty and forgot to multiply by 100 in the middle of posts apologies, I am certainly not going to say it was 'shameful'
I certainly don't agree with you that a factor of 100 is nothing to worry about. You're the one who is always seeing huge significance in one or two percentage points in the stats you post from polls. And yet you don't care if you are 100 times - that is, 10, 000 per cent - out.
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Do I give a shit what you think? No. You are someone I don't agree with on barely anything and that includes this.
If I was doing a doctorate, which I am not and have not, then I might be calculating percentages more regularly based on what it was on but I am not.
I have not needed to calculate percentages to any significant degree since I was 16 doing GCSEs, if I am a little rusty and forgot to multiply by 100 in the middle of posts apologies, I am certainly not going to say it was 'shameful'
All that we are suggesting is that for once - even if it is a one-time gig - you adopt a bit of humility and say "I was wrong".
This isn't about trying to catch you out, out you down, make some kind of bigger point. Just hoping for a bit of humanity in you to accept that we all say stupid now and then.
Alternately, digging your heels in and refusing to admit any error makes you look like the world's most pompous spanner.
As founding member of the Royal Society For The Protection Of The Reputation Of Tools & Mechanical Contrivances, please do not refer to people as "spanners"
Spanners are useful. You can use them to mend Covenanter tanks, for example. They are simple, humble tools, that just work. Every home should have a set of spanners.
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Shameful, or just a mistake as can happen in the cut and thrust? His point remains, that it's very low.
Beg to differ. Low numbers can matter when multiplied by high numbers, as in exactly this case.
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
What has Boris actually done for the people of Ukraine others havn’t, to be say twice that of Biden?
I would suspect it is the speed of the UK's response to requests for lethal military assistance. While the Europeans are undoubtedly being more generous in helping out the refugees than the US or the UK, Ukranians really don't want to be refugees. They want to keep their homeland. And while they'll need huge amounts of military assistance to continue to flow into Ukraine from NATO over the coming months to do that, they would have had no opportunity to even consider holding on were they not able to withstand the initial assault.
So I think they are valuing the early military assistance (and perhaps the visibility of Johnson's personal relationship with Zelenski) over the types of assistance the EU is providing in greater quantities in other areas.
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Shameful, or just a mistake as can happen in the cut and thrust? His point remains, that it's very low.
It is very low (or, perhaps better to describe it as, acceptably low).
It is however a classic example of a time when a simple "D'oh, my mistake" would have defused the situation. Because we all make errors from time to time. And better to recognize it with a smile and a shrug.
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If we don't cancel "All the Things She Said" by Tatu can we put it in the context of "would be shit if not for the fact that its a Russian song about lesbian love which is proper edgy"
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris and this Tory government have correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back. Indeed by 73% to 22% Tory voters believe we must learn to live with Covid compared to just 22% who think we need to test more, wear masks more and vaccinate more
It is actually 0.0027, or 0.27%. You forgot to multiply by 100 to get to %. Now, of course, you will post an entirely different point to avoid this inconvenient fact.
Regardless it is miniscule, I could not care less what the case rate is given the death rate is so tiny
Being out by a factor of 100 is hardly miniscule.
Currently have my Brother & Sis-in-Law and 2 of their kids down with Covid - I haven't got it yet despite babysitting their kids the day before positive diagnosis. Other friend who has it and her husband and both their kids. Despite 3 jabs she had the "like breathing glue" experience and needed an emergency course of steroids to keep her airways open.
We need Covid swinging back like a hole in the head, it needs to go away.
Which is why with all due respect you keep advocating delusional policies. You haven't yet accepted the reality that it isn't going away.
I hope for your sanity you can accept that soon and move on.
We have surely all accepted that it is not going away. We will accept a certain number of deaths, as we do with Flu, and we will got on with life. I certainly hope that IS the case, I am personally done with restrictions. Never again!
But now we are, perhaps, presented with some different questions. What is happening in Hong Kong, South Korea, and - possibly - Germany? It is just low vax rates or rubbish Chinese vaccines in HK? Or is Omicron BA2 potentially a new menace to a number of countries - especially China? To what extent can it reinfect? What is the true CFR?
I wish we didn't have to ask these bloody tedious questions yet again, but maybe we do
It's vax rates among the older groups that is key - three jabs with top notch stuff and you're in a much better position.
Concerns were raised about take-up in some parts of Germany among older people, a while back.
Plus also lack of prior immunity from infection? The UK has been drenched with Covid cases for two years, so we have a lot of natural resistance, one hopes
South Korea, HK, Vietnam, and to a lesser extent Germany, have all had way fewer Covid cases to this point
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Do I give a shit what you think? No. You are someone I don't agree with on barely anything and that includes this.
If I was doing a doctorate, which I am not and have not, then I might be calculating percentages more regularly based on what it was on but I am not.
I have not needed to calculate percentages to any significant degree since I was 16 doing GCSEs, if I am a little rusty and forgot to multiply by 100 in the middle of posts apologies, I am certainly not going to say it was 'shameful'
I certainly don't agree with you that a factor of 100 is nothing to worry about. You're the one who is always seeing huge significance in one or two percentage points in the stats you post from polls. And yet you don't care if you are 100 times - that is, 10, 000 per cent - out.
In terms of actual impact on government policy, on either figure the death rate was less than 0.5%.
No justification whatsoever to keep further restrictions
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If we don't cancel "All the Things She Said" by Tatu can we put it in the context of "would be shit if not for the fact that its a Russian song about lesbian love which is proper edgy"
Am laughing my ass off - welcome comic relief in these terrible times - at poster who habitually inundates PB with numbers, numbers, numbers, numbers, along with his endless interpretations, analysis, etc., etc., based on pure devotion to "true" facts . . . then whines and whimpers and wails and gnashes,etc., etc. when his numbers are questioned let alone refuted.
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Do I give a shit what you think? No. You are someone I don't agree with on barely anything and that includes this.
If I was doing a doctorate, which I am not and have not, then I might be calculating percentages more regularly based on what it was on but I am not.
I have not needed to calculate percentages to any significant degree since I was 16 doing GCSEs, if I am a little rusty and forgot to multiply by 100 in the middle of posts apologies, I am certainly not going to say it was 'shameful'
I certainly don't agree with you that a factor of 100 is nothing to worry about. You're the one who is always seeing huge significance in one or two percentage points in the stats you post from polls. And yet you don't care if you are 100 times - that is, 10, 000 per cent - out.
Innumeracy is an affliction for too many people in society. It's not especially surprising some here suffer from it too, but it is a shame.
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
I don't like the idea personally although the 1812 overture with its militaristic overtones would seem a little insensitive.
Let's not be daft. There are many great things about Russia.
When the newspaper reviewers were telling me yesterday it’s brilliant McDonalds have pulled out as it can help ferment a revolution, Is it just me who found that to be gibberish and fear we might be helping the opposite to happen?
Another problem is how does all this that’s switched off in Russia get switched back on by us? Our government has been determined to tell us it’s not the Russian people it’s Putin’s regime, so the end of Putin regime would be the trigger to throw our arms around the Russians and turn it all back on again? but seems to me our government are losing on that message, the longer it goes on it’s becoming Russia, not Putin? We don’t know just how many Russians back what Putin has done, how many share the same opinion as ourselves about it, I sense quite a lot, but surely we need them as way out of this, yet targeting them, seemingly so they put the pressure on at home, is probably more nuanced than the rabid ruskiephobia now happening?
Undoubtedly gibberish. The word is 'foment'.
Given the rates of alcoholism in Russia, ferment might be right ...
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If we don't cancel "All the Things She Said" by Tatu can we put it in the context of "would be shit if not for the fact that its a Russian song about lesbian love which is proper edgy"
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
I think we need to be pretty brutal about cracking down on Russians, even if in some individual cases it is unfair and they could be innocent of any wrong-doing. The Russian people just have to understand that there are consequences if your Govt acts like this.
However, banning Tchaikovsky is plain daft and small-minded.
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
The U.K. has had a long-standing policy of helping Ukraine, which given Russia’s use of nerve and radiological weapons on U.K. soil is to be commended.
Some of our European allies have been naive at best or wilfully blind at worst - but they all seem to have woken up to the threat now and are responding expeditiously. It’s team work.
Maybe but there is also no doubt that Boris (and to be fair Macron) are now far more dynamic and charismatic leaders of the West than Biden is. Scholz being a new kid on the block compared to them is still learning but also pretty dull and held back by Germany's previous reliance on close Russian links. Trudeau is relatively dynamic but Canada is still a step below in terms of global power relative to the UK and France.
Boris as you say got their earlier with military supplies to Ukraine, while Macron is playing catchup having spent too long trying to get Putin to not invade Ukraine rather than help Ukraine if he did
Harris will land in Poland on a mission to rally NATO against Russian aggression. But her visit could now be dominated by the question of why the U.S. and Poland have fumbled the transfer deal.
On a call previewing the trip, a senior administration official conceded the issue would be front and center. “We have been in dialogue with the Poles for some time about how best to provide a variety of security assistance to Ukraine,” the official said. “And that’s a dialogue that absolutely will continue up to and as part of the vice president’s trip.”
SSI - sitting in my armchair, my view is that this is a critical juncture for Ukraine, NATO and (of course) Russia. Also for President Biden, and most certainly for Vice President Harris.
My personal expectation is that she will help broker an agreement that will provide planes to Ukraine some how, some way. Because for one thing, don't think Biden would have sent her out with any other expectation. Because the stakes are huge for both POTUS and VEEP, not to mention the rest of us across the world.
I had dinner last night with someone who knows California very well and counts Kamala as a personal friend.
View was that she will get flattened in 2024. She’s got a difficult and thankless job, but she’s not making a go of it. He expects Newsom to run for potus in 2024 - sees it as wide open - but generally concerned by lack of talking on the democrat bench. Doesn’t rate Buttegieg- infrastructure bill was fantastic opportunity for him and he was nowhere to be seen
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If we don't cancel "All the Things She Said" by Tatu can we put it in the context of "would be shit if not for the fact that its a Russian song about lesbian love which is proper edgy"
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Do I give a shit what you think? No. You are someone I don't agree with on barely anything and that includes this.
If I was doing a doctorate, which I am not and have not, then I might be calculating percentages more regularly based on what it was on but I am not.
I have not needed to calculate percentages to any significant degree since I was 16 doing GCSEs, if I am a little rusty and forgot to multiply by 100 in the middle of posts apologies, I am certainly not going to say it was 'shameful'
I certainly don't agree with you that a factor of 100 is nothing to worry about. You're the one who is always seeing huge significance in one or two percentage points in the stats you post from polls. And yet you don't care if you are 100 times - that is, 10, 000 per cent - out.
Innumeracy is an affliction for too many people in society. It's not especially surprising some here suffer from it too, but it is a shame.
I don't want to add further to the pile on, honestly,. But 'not needed to calculate percentages to any significant degree since I was 16' is so unbelievable (and, if read literally, simply means "I've never worked out a percentage at all [edit] since I was 16", given that most in ordinary life are to 2 significant figures or more).
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
The U.K. has had a long-standing policy of helping Ukraine, which given Russia’s use of nerve and radiological weapons on U.K. soil is to be commended.
Some of our European allies have been naive at best or wilfully blind at worst - but they all seem to have woken up to the threat now and are responding expeditiously. It’s team work.
Maybe but there is also no doubt that Boris (and to be fair Macron) are now far more dynamic and charismatic leaders of the West than Biden is. Scholz being a new kid on the block compared to them is still learning but also pretty dull and held back by Germany's previous reliance on close Russian links.
Boris as you say got their earlier with military supplies to Ukraine, while Macron is playing catchup having spent too long trying to get Putin to not invade Ukraine rather than help Ukraine if he did
Oh, stop trying desperately to big him up. He is a clown and everyone knows it. The odd good speech to a receptive Commons during a crisis doesn't change that. He needs to be replaced, and anytime soon is not soon enough.
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Do I give a shit what you think? No. You are someone I don't agree with on barely anything and that includes this.
If I was doing a doctorate, which I am not and have not, then I might be calculating percentages more regularly based on what it was on but I am not.
I have not needed to calculate percentages to any significant degree since I was 16 doing GCSEs, if I am a little rusty and forgot to multiply by 100 in the middle of posts apologies, I am certainly not going to say it was 'shameful'
I certainly don't agree with you that a factor of 100 is nothing to worry about. You're the one who is always seeing huge significance in one or two percentage points in the stats you post from polls. And yet you don't care if you are 100 times - that is, 10, 000 per cent - out.
In terms of actual impact on government policy, on either figure the death rate was less than 0.5%.
No justification whatsoever to keep further restrictions
A death rate of, say, 0.4% IS quite significant if literally everyone catches this damn new version of the bug. At the moment about 7.6% of all South Koreans have Covid: they have 3.9 million active cases in a population of 51 million
Nearly one in ten
So knowing the true IFR - in the light of vaccines, better treatments, etc - is going to be really important for them. At the moment death rates are still pretty low in S Korea, but they are also shooting up fast from that low base
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If we don't cancel "All the Things She Said" by Tatu can we put it in the context of "would be shit if not for the fact that its a Russian song about lesbian love which is proper edgy"
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
That's utterly ridiculous.
Twats. Especially since Tchaikovsky was associated with linking Russia with the West, culturally.
If anything we should be celebrating the work of this GAY Russian. This war is not about the Russian people or culture, but about the perverted views and actions of one man, and his regime, Putin not Tchaikovsky.
Cardiff should have used the concert as an opportunity to celebrate gay Russia.
Isn’t all this stuff about the MiGs a bit of a distraction? I was under the impression that most of the damage being down to Ukrainian cities was by ground based rockets and artillery rather than the airforce. What use are fighter jets against that?
How are Ukraine being equipped to take out that threat? Do the rules of the game allow Ukraine to use weapons supplied by Nato to take our ground based rockets originating from Russian territory?
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
The U.K. has had a long-standing policy of helping Ukraine, which given Russia’s use of nerve and radiological weapons on U.K. soil is to be commended.
Some of our European allies have been naive at best or wilfully blind at worst - but they all seem to have woken up to the threat now and are responding expeditiously. It’s team work.
Maybe but there is also no doubt that Boris (and to be fair Macron) are now far more dynamic and charismatic leaders of the West than Biden is. Scholz being a new kid on the block compared to them is still learning but also pretty dull and held back by Germany's previous reliance on close Russian links.
Boris as you say got their earlier with military supplies to Ukraine, while Macron is playing catchup having spent too long trying to get Putin to not invade Ukraine rather than help Ukraine if he did
Oh, stop trying desperately to big him up. He is a clown and everyone knows it. The odd good speech to a receptive Commons during a crisis doesn't change that. He needs to be replaced, and anytime soon is not soon enough.
You didn't even vote for Boris in 2019 when he won a landslide, your dislike of him is longstanding
Still an issue in some parts of the world. eg South Korea, once the poster boy of Covid control. They have just announced an extraordinary 342,000 new cases in one day, their highest ever, and one of the absolute biggest daily caseloads reported anywhere - eg India peaked about 400,000 a day, Brazil at about 250,000, and they are both vastly bigger than S Korea
it must be Omicron (BA2?) combined with a lack of prior immunity
And it is not some innocent explosion of mild colds, death rates are also shooting up dramatically (158 today, whereas S Korea is used to single digit death rates per day)
Combined with the 5th wave Covid calamity we are seeing in Hong Kong, this is deeply ominous for China.
They have zero prior immunity. As they keep telling us, proudly. If Omicron BA2 gets in to China, then it could be hellish for them; and it must be likely that it will do so, if it can easily cause such havoc in quarantined Hong Kong
Just to add to the joys of the world
When not if.
One of my family just contracted Omicron. Completely isolating (because of caring for an elderly relative) - literal 2 minute conversation at distance with someone who later tested positive.
Everyone is going to get this.....
Not necessarily, if you've been triple-vaxxed.
My own (unscientific) perspective is: The day after my mum died (non-covid), I spent the whole day my brother who was coughing, sneezing and feeling awful the whole time. I fully expected to catch his 'bad cold' but thankfully nothing - not a sniff(!)
Although he tested negative on LFTs, his GP suspected covid and we both think that's right, and that my 3 vaccinations protected me from catching it.
As I said, totally unscientific.
My 11 year old son got covid (almost certainly omicron) over New Year. We didn't engage in any social distancing at home, and neither my wife or I, nor our daughter got it.
We were all triple vaxxed, and were lucky.
Yes, my middle daughter has recently had it (again - it was delta last time). None of the rest of us did. Wife and I are vaxxed but none of the kids are old enough yet to have been. That said, oldest daughter did have a nasty cold. But tested negative throughout. I suspect through vaccination and/or repeated exposure we are all brimming with antibodies at the moment.
Exactly.
I'm sure my wife and I sucked in omicron particles, which were swiftly identified and neutralized.
For us, it acted as an unnoticeable booster shot.
And this is one of the reasons why - even with an R0 of 7 - covid fades fairly quickly in a well vaccinated population.
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Do I give a shit what you think? No. You are someone I don't agree with on barely anything and that includes this.
If I was doing a doctorate, which I am not and have not, then I might be calculating percentages more regularly based on what it was on but I am not.
I have not needed to calculate percentages to any significant degree since I was 16 doing GCSEs, if I am a little rusty and forgot to multiply by 100 in the middle of posts apologies, I am certainly not going to say it was 'shameful'
I certainly don't agree with you that a factor of 100 is nothing to worry about. You're the one who is always seeing huge significance in one or two percentage points in the stats you post from polls. And yet you don't care if you are 100 times - that is, 10, 000 per cent - out.
Innumeracy is an affliction for too many people in society. It's not especially surprising some here suffer from it too, but it is a shame.
And its a transposition error that is easy to do when you're in a hurry / not concentrating. So "yeah, got that wrong" is a pretty simple thing to say. Essential if its work and you've just screwed up by a factor of 100. Unless you are a pompous buffoon apparently in which case its double down and attack the people pointing out the errors.
Come to think if it, have Priti Patel and HYUFD ever been seen in the same room?
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Shameful, or just a mistake as can happen in the cut and thrust? His point remains, that it's very low.
It is very low (or, perhaps better to describe it as, acceptably low).
It is however a classic example of a time when a simple "D'oh, my mistake" would have defused the situation. Because we all make errors from time to time. And better to recognize it with a smile and a shrug.
I was 18 before I learned this lesson. As a teenager, I would realise I had made a mistake in an argument but continue to argue. Everyone I knew took this approach. Somehow admitting being wrong was somehow a bigger failure than being wrong in the first place and placed upon you an obligation to continue the argument, no matter that your position was now demonstrably observed, until everyone parted, glowering. And then I remember meeting a(n actually highly argumentative) Geordie at university who, when you pointed out his mistake, would come back with 'ah, you're not wrong there' and being hugely impressed. One of my daughters learned to cheerfully admit she was wrong and not mind about it while still at infant school. I was so proud of her. Her older sister has observed the success of the tactic and also learned; her younger sister has not, yet. Many adults I know have also not yet mastered this approach.
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Do I give a shit what you think? No. You are someone I don't agree with on barely anything and that includes this.
If I was doing a doctorate, which I am not and have not, then I might be calculating percentages more regularly based on what it was on but I am not.
I have not needed to calculate percentages to any significant degree since I was 16 doing GCSEs, if I am a little rusty and forgot to multiply by 100 in the middle of posts apologies, I am certainly not going to say it was 'shameful'
I certainly don't agree with you that a factor of 100 is nothing to worry about. You're the one who is always seeing huge significance in one or two percentage points in the stats you post from polls. And yet you don't care if you are 100 times - that is, 10, 000 per cent - out.
In terms of actual impact on government policy, on either figure the death rate was less than 0.5%.
No justification whatsoever to keep further restrictions
A death rate of, say, 0.4% IS quite significant if literally everyone catches this damn new version of the bug. At the moment about 7.6% of all South Koreans have Covid: they have 3.9 million active cases in a population of 51 million
Nearly one in ten
So knowing the true IFR - in the light of vaccines, better treatments, etc - is going to be really important for them. At the moment death rates are still pretty low in S Korea, but they are also shooting up fast from that low base
They would have to catch it at exactly the same time post vaccination for it to make much difference at all.
In the UK many of us have already had Omicron anyway
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Do I give a shit what you think? No. You are someone I don't agree with on barely anything and that includes this.
If I was doing a doctorate, which I am not and have not, then I might be calculating percentages more regularly based on what it was on but I am not.
I have not needed to calculate percentages to any significant degree since I was 16 doing GCSEs, if I am a little rusty and forgot to multiply by 100 in the middle of posts apologies, I am certainly not going to say it was 'shameful'
I certainly don't agree with you that a factor of 100 is nothing to worry about. You're the one who is always seeing huge significance in one or two percentage points in the stats you post from polls. And yet you don't care if you are 100 times - that is, 10, 000 per cent - out.
Innumeracy is an affliction for too many people in society. It's not especially surprising some here suffer from it too, but it is a shame.
An inability to show some sympathy toward someone who has made an error is also an affliction it seems for too many people on PB
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Do I give a shit what you think? No. You are someone I don't agree with on barely anything and that includes this.
If I was doing a doctorate, which I am not and have not, then I might be calculating percentages more regularly based on what it was on but I am not.
I have not needed to calculate percentages to any significant degree since I was 16 doing GCSEs, if I am a little rusty and forgot to multiply by 100 in the middle of posts apologies, I am certainly not going to say it was 'shameful'
I certainly don't agree with you that a factor of 100 is nothing to worry about. You're the one who is always seeing huge significance in one or two percentage points in the stats you post from polls. And yet you don't care if you are 100 times - that is, 10, 000 per cent - out.
In terms of actual impact on government policy, on either figure the death rate was less than 0.5%.
No justification whatsoever to keep further restrictions
A death rate of, say, 0.4% IS quite significant if literally everyone catches this damn new version of the bug. At the moment about 7.6% of all South Koreans have Covid: they have 3.9 million active cases in a population of 51 million
Nearly one in ten
So knowing the true IFR - in the light of vaccines, better treatments, etc - is going to be really important for them. At the moment death rates are still pretty low in S Korea, but they are also shooting up fast from that low base
Why is it significant?
About 1.2% of people die annually in the developed world. Even if everyone catches it and it's 0.4% (which it clearly isn't for the fully vaccinated) that's still not significant.
Death rates may be shooting up from zero in countries overly inflicted with zero covidianism but so long as they're fully vaccinated only to a liveable amount.
For the fully vaccinated it's pushing through deaths door those who are dying anyway primarily.
On topic, one thing that this crisis with Ukraine (and the Trump Presidency before it) has taught me is the advantage that a more collegiate Prime Ministerial system has over a Presidential one, in that it is more likely to prevent a leader from going completely off the rails, and to remove him if he does so.
Where a leader has a fixed term and a direct mandate from the people, and can only be removed, if at all, through clumsy measures like impeachment, and can surround themselves with yes men, they are obviously more likely to commit the country to catastrophes like a pointless foreign war. And you see that even in relatively benevolent systems like America's or France's, megalomania can take hold. While a Prime Minister in a Parliamentary system, who has to balance difficult factions and colleagues constantly to stay in power, cannot become completely divorced from reality.
Of course it's not as simple as that - Prime Ministers in this country with large majorities can become Presidential and megalomanical too, and they often find it more difficult than Presidents to get things done. But on balance, I think a Prime Ministerial system is much better than a Presidential one, because of the constraints it puts on the man at the top.
I think another factor might be that in parliamentary systems the head of Govt has to debate other parliamentarians on a regular basis and justify policy.
All Biden and Macron have to do is read from a tele-prompter and, if they choose, take questions from journalists.
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If we don't cancel "All the Things She Said" by Tatu can we put it in the context of "would be shit if not for the fact that its a Russian song about lesbian love which is proper edgy"
Totally OT, but I'm pleased to confirm that @Leon is right - the Stonehenge exhibition at the British Museum is outstanding. It wasn't especially busy this lunchtime, and it was a totally absorbing 2 hours of my time. It will definitely merit a second visit having had a good peruse of the exhibition book and a bit of deeper reading.
The best exhibition I've been to in years. I was also blown away by the Gold of the Steppe at the Fitzwilliam in Cbg so we are in a bit of high spot for the museum sector coming out of Covid.
Ah. Pleased you enjoyed it!
I am going back again tomorrow for my second round, there was so much to absorb, I now realise I missed things, and it was really busy on Sunday - so I am hoping for fewer crowds
I've never been to an exhibition twice before. It really is that good
Oo, that sounds v interesting, thanks for recommendation to you both.
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Shameful, or just a mistake as can happen in the cut and thrust? His point remains, that it's very low.
It is very low (or, perhaps better to describe it as, acceptably low).
It is however a classic example of a time when a simple "D'oh, my mistake" would have defused the situation. Because we all make errors from time to time. And better to recognize it with a smile and a shrug.
Don't forget @HYUFD has aspirations to become a (more important) elected representative and you only have to listen to any politician being interviewed to understand what he is in training for.
Nick Robinson: So, HYUFD I see you made a completely understandable mistake in calculating percentages.
HYUFD: What we need to focus on here, Nick, is to make sure our National Health Service continues to receive the funding and support it needs to be able to cope with all illnesses.
NR: Yes of course, but your error of calculation. Surely you can see that you were out by a factor of 100 and we don't want to give the wrong impression to our listeners.
HYUFD: Because of the measures taken by this government Covid numbers have declined dramatically and we are now seeing the benefits of....etc...
Alternatively:
Nick Robinson: So, HYUFD I see you made a completely understandable mistake in calculating percentages.
HYUFD: Yes Nick apologies, it was a silly error, I meant 0.27%
NR: So. You got that wrong. Can you tell us please what else you have got wrong when you have spoken about Covid.
HYUFD: Look it was an entirely understandable mistake, anyone could have made it, we all do, I'm sure you have, Nick.
NR: So we can't trust anything you say now. Thank you HYUFD over to you Martha...
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Do I give a shit what you think? No. You are someone I don't agree with on barely anything and that includes this.
If I was doing a doctorate, which I am not and have not, then I might be calculating percentages more regularly based on what it was on but I am not.
I have not needed to calculate percentages to any significant degree since I was 16 doing GCSEs, if I am a little rusty and forgot to multiply by 100 in the middle of posts apologies, I am certainly not going to say it was 'shameful'
Dammit, having blinded us with dodgy maths now you're bamboozling us with double negatives
("You are someone I don't agree with on barely anything" - so someone you agree with on most things?)
Edit: slightly uncharacteristic language/visible annoyance from you too, HYUFD. We don't agree on a lot, but I respect your general civility in the face of often quite hostile responses. So I don't criticise you for it, but just hope that things are not getting to you. We all write dumb things on here from time to time where we've messed up maths or misunderstood something. No biggie.
After today's revelations I have come to the conclusion Patel's days as a minister are numbered
She has been besieged with criticism from across the house and normally any cabinet minister in this situation would be seen next to the Prime Minister at PMQs as evidence of confidence, but Patel was not anywhere to be seen
Reports this morning of cabinet colleagues of Patel pilling into her in cabinet was not unexpected
The announcement that Michael Gove will now take responsibility for the sponsorship visa scheme and former mp, Richard Harrington has been granted a peerage and appointed to the specific office of minister for refugees
Ben Wallace confirmed at the dispatch box that the defence - home - foreign office are meeting this afternoon to coordinate the refugees response
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
What has Boris actually done for the people of Ukraine others havn’t, to be say twice that of Biden?
I would suspect it is the speed of the UK's response to requests for lethal military assistance. While the Europeans are undoubtedly being more generous in helping out the refugees than the US or the UK, Ukranians really don't want to be refugees. They want to keep their homeland. And while they'll need huge amounts of military assistance to continue to flow into Ukraine from NATO over the coming months to do that, they would have had no opportunity to even consider holding on were they not able to withstand the initial assault.
So I think they are valuing the early military assistance (and perhaps the visibility of Johnson's personal relationship with Zelenski) over the types of assistance the EU is providing in greater quantities in other areas.
“ it is the speed of the UK's response to requests for lethal military assistance.”
Sure every country will think of their own contribution as being the best, but it’s still a crowded field though, even the competition to supplying the best military assistance you flag up? Germany got some praise when belatedly sending something more useful than hats, but it was hardly remarked it was all rusted and unusable.
I would answer, macron and Schulz met Putin in Moscow, then dropped by in Kyiv to tell Ukraine to fully implement minsk2, I’m not even aware of Boris chatting to Putin on the blower, he certainly doesn’t share same outlook of EU regards Minsk.
The danger here is, with the greater expectation, Boris and UK can be the ones to let Ukraine down most? 🤔
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Numbers MATTER. Getting them that wrong is shameful.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Do I give a shit what you think? No. You are someone I don't agree with on barely anything and that includes this.
If I was doing a doctorate, which I am not and have not, then I might be calculating percentages more regularly based on what it was on but I am not.
I have not needed to calculate percentages to any significant degree since I was 16 doing GCSEs, if I am a little rusty and forgot to multiply by 100 in the middle of posts apologies, I am certainly not going to say it was 'shameful'
I certainly don't agree with you that a factor of 100 is nothing to worry about. You're the one who is always seeing huge significance in one or two percentage points in the stats you post from polls. And yet you don't care if you are 100 times - that is, 10, 000 per cent - out.
In terms of actual impact on government policy, on either figure the death rate was less than 0.5%.
No justification whatsoever to keep further restrictions
A death rate of, say, 0.4% IS quite significant if literally everyone catches this damn new version of the bug. At the moment about 7.6% of all South Koreans have Covid: they have 3.9 million active cases in a population of 51 million
Nearly one in ten
So knowing the true IFR - in the light of vaccines, better treatments, etc - is going to be really important for them. At the moment death rates are still pretty low in S Korea, but they are also shooting up fast from that low base
Why is it significant?
About 1.2% of people die annually in the developed world. Even if everyone catches it and it's 0.4% (which it clearly isn't for the fully vaccinated) that's still not significant.
Death rates may be shooting up from zero in countries overly inflicted with zero covidianism but so long as they're fully vaccinated only to a liveable amount.
About 600,000 people die in the UK every year.
If, one year, that suddenly went up to 850,000 - and did it in a matter of weeks - we would certainly notice. We'd lockdown voluntarily, even if HMG did nothing. No one would go out
This is most unlikely to happen in the UK, I agree. We have good vax rates, a good booster campaign, we use good vaccines, we have good treatments, and - perhaps most importantly of all? - we have a ton of natural immunity from all the cases we have had already
BUT elsewhere there could be major problems. As is happening right now in Hong Kong
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
I think we need to be pretty brutal about cracking down on Russians, even if in some individual cases it is unfair and they could be innocent of any wrong-doing. The Russian people just have to understand that there are consequences if your Govt acts like this.
However, banning Tchaikovsky is plain daft and small-minded.
I think we should be celebrating Tchaikovsky's homosexuality. Mostly because it would really annoy the Russian government.
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
My first night back in London Saturday before last, I went to the LPO's "From Russia with Love" programme (Prokofiev and Rachmaninoff). The Director of Programmes introduced herself at the outset. She said her name, that she is a Jew born in Moscow with a Ukrainian husband. She said that the programme was developed 2 years ago with the purpose of showing that music can build bridges, and that that message was all the more pertinent given developments. She went into a long diatribe against Putin's regime, and pointed out that Prokofiev was born in Donetsk and that the Russians had destroyed the airport bearing his name. The orchestra then opened the proceedings with a stirring rendition of the Ukrainian national anthem, for which everyone stood.
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
If anything we should be putting more Russian culture out there.
I'd recommend Lermontov's "A Hero of Our Time". (It's fairly short.)
And, for music, Shostakovich's final symphony, the 15th, sends the shivers.
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
The U.K. has had a long-standing policy of helping Ukraine, which given Russia’s use of nerve and radiological weapons on U.K. soil is to be commended.
Some of our European allies have been naive at best or wilfully blind at worst - but they all seem to have woken up to the threat now and are responding expeditiously. It’s team work.
Maybe but there is also no doubt that Boris (and to be fair Macron) are now far more dynamic and charismatic leaders of the West than Biden is. Scholz being a new kid on the block compared to them is still learning but also pretty dull and held back by Germany's previous reliance on close Russian links.
Boris as you say got their earlier with military supplies to Ukraine, while Macron is playing catchup having spent too long trying to get Putin to not invade Ukraine rather than help Ukraine if he did
Oh, stop trying desperately to big him up. He is a clown and everyone knows it. The odd good speech to a receptive Commons during a crisis doesn't change that. He needs to be replaced, and anytime soon is not soon enough.
You didn't even vote for Boris in 2019 when he won a landslide, your dislike of him is longstanding
Yep, and very proud that I did not endorse him. 'Tis because he is shit. I am sure he would be quite amusing if one met him in the pub, but I don't want an incompetent clown for a PM. He needs to go, and you bigging him up won't change that reality.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris and this Tory government have correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back. Indeed by 73% to 22% Tory voters believe we must learn to live with Covid compared to just 22% who think we need to test more, wear masks more and vaccinate more
It is actually 0.0027, or 0.27%. You forgot to multiply by 100 to get to %. Now, of course, you will post an entirely different point to avoid this inconvenient fact.
Regardless it is miniscule, I could not care less what the case rate is given the death rate is so tiny
Being out by a factor of 100 is hardly miniscule.
Currently have my Brother & Sis-in-Law and 2 of their kids down with Covid - I haven't got it yet despite babysitting their kids the day before positive diagnosis. Other friend who has it and her husband and both their kids. Despite 3 jabs she had the "like breathing glue" experience and needed an emergency course of steroids to keep her airways open.
We need Covid swinging back like a hole in the head, it needs to go away.
Which is why with all due respect you keep advocating delusional policies. You haven't yet accepted the reality that it isn't going away.
I hope for your sanity you can accept that soon and move on.
We have surely all accepted that it is not going away. We will accept a certain number of deaths, as we do with Flu, and we will got on with life. I certainly hope that IS the case, I am personally done with restrictions. Never again!
But now we are, perhaps, presented with some different questions. What is happening in Hong Kong, South Korea, and - possibly - Germany? It is just low vax rates or rubbish Chinese vaccines in HK? Or is Omicron BA2 potentially a new menace to a number of countries - especially China? To what extent can it reinfect? What is the true CFR?
I wish we didn't have to ask these bloody tedious questions yet again, but maybe we do
It's vax rates among the older groups that is key - three jabs with top notch stuff and you're in a much better position.
Concerns were raised about take-up in some parts of Germany among older people, a while back.
It may also be the vaccines used. I bow to others in knowledge of the details here, but there are suggestions that some of the vaccines used in China may not actually be massively effective. I know HK has used a lot of Sinovac, as well as Pfizer - are there any views about the effectiveness of that one?
Are we sure that Boris will appreciate being annoited "the new leader of the free world" here on PB, by God's vicar on earth? Who is also PB's leading apologist for Putin?
Perhaps telling the Prime Minister that he is the Savior of the West might enhance one's chances of preferment & patronage? Is that the game here?
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
What has Boris actually done for the people of Ukraine others havn’t, to be say twice that of Biden?
I would suspect it is the speed of the UK's response to requests for lethal military assistance. While the Europeans are undoubtedly being more generous in helping out the refugees than the US or the UK, Ukranians really don't want to be refugees. They want to keep their homeland. And while they'll need huge amounts of military assistance to continue to flow into Ukraine from NATO over the coming months to do that, they would have had no opportunity to even consider holding on were they not able to withstand the initial assault.
So I think they are valuing the early military assistance (and perhaps the visibility of Johnson's personal relationship with Zelenski) over the types of assistance the EU is providing in greater quantities in other areas.
“ it is the speed of the UK's response to requests for lethal military assistance.”
Sure every country will think of their own contribution as being the best, but it’s still a crowded field though, even the competition to supplying the best military assistance you flag up? Germany got some praise when belatedly sending something more useful than hats, but it was hardly remarked it was all rusted and unusable.
I would answer, macron and Schulz met Putin in Moscow, then dropped by in Kyiv to tell Ukraine to fully implement minsk2, I’m not even aware of Boris chatting to Putin on the blower, he certainly doesn’t share same outlook of EU regards Minsk.
The danger here is, with the greater expectation, Boris and UK can be the ones to let Ukraine down most? 🤔
The Germans got a lot of flak in both the UK and the French press for sending old (and occasionally inoperable) equipment to the Ukraine.
US pollster @cygnal has polled residents of Ukraine on their view of certain countries and leaders: EU +42.2 Nato -16.8 UK +56 Biden +25.8 Johnson +49.6 Zelensky +79 Putin -86.7
The takeaway from that poll has nothing to do with our home grown pathological liar. It’s that 5% of Ukranians have no opinion of Putin either way and that smaller percentages have either not heard of him or view him positively.
Comments
Horse trading will not stop, however.
Nor will our need to navigate around intra-EU disputes. It will be interesting to see how the €1m a day fine for Poland is resolved.
I don't see politics going away very much
I do not think we should cancel Russian culture. We should put it in context, as this wonderful woman did.
Let's not be daft. There are many great things about Russia.
Germany today:
#Covid_19 in Germany: 16242070 (+215854) (3363600 active) cases/124764 (+314) fatalities reported by
@rki_de & @ProMED_mail as of 09 Mar nationwide CFR is 0.76%/ R value is 1.01 (0.97-1.05), approx. 12753700 (+228700) recoveries, 75.6% complete vaccinated.
https://twitter.com/thelonevirologi/status/1501565919079903234?s=20&t=c68LmOMk_fLIHbJBq5kjTw
CFR:0.76%
That's nasty
They are at least "talking" about a summer lockdown in Germany. Maybe Kamski can tell us if this is just clickbait tabloid chatter
https://twitter.com/SHomburg/status/1501466878287523844?s=20&t=c68LmOMk_fLIHbJBq5kjTw
Currently have my Brother & Sis-in-Law and 2 of their kids down with Covid - I haven't got it yet despite babysitting their kids the day before positive diagnosis. Other friend who has it and her husband and both their kids. Despite 3 jabs she had the "like breathing glue" experience and needed an emergency course of steroids to keep her airways open.
We need Covid swinging back like a hole in the head, it needs to go away.
They'll be burning War and Peace next.
One of my friends did a doctorate *IN HISTORY* on IIRC agrarian economy in early modern times. He wouldn't have got his doctorate if he'd not been sure whether the average rustic produced 0.1 or 10 times the number of bushels of grain he sowed.
Where a leader has a fixed term and a direct mandate from the people, and can only be removed, if at all, through clumsy measures like impeachment, and can surround themselves with yes men, they are obviously more likely to commit the country to catastrophes like a pointless foreign war. And you see that even in relatively benevolent systems like America's or France's, megalomania can take hold. While a Prime Minister in a Parliamentary system, who has to balance difficult factions and colleagues constantly to stay in power, cannot become completely divorced from reality.
Of course it's not as simple as that - Prime Ministers in this country with large majorities can become Presidential and megalomanical too, and they often find it more difficult than Presidents to get things done. But on balance, I think a Prime Ministerial system is much better than a Presidential one, because of the constraints it puts on the man at the top.
It’s fascinating how bloody obvious it is - and that they think rehashing our bullshit will have currency.
A BIG MOMENT FOR HARRIS — At 7:30 a.m., VP KAMALA HARRIS departs for Warsaw, Poland, where she will be thrust into the middle of the first major standoff between NATO countries since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The backstory:
> Ukraine wants more planes — specifically Russian-made MiG-29 fighter jets, which its pilots know how to fly. . .
> But the decision to transfer the military hardware has been hampered by the same fraught question that shadows every effort by the U.S. and Europe to punish Russia and aid Ukraine: Will it escalate the conflict in a way that makes NATO a combatant against Russia?
> Despite the EU promise, Poland repeatedly said there was no transfer in the works.
> Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, frustrated that the West has steadfastly refused his request for a no-fly zone, made the Polish aircraft transfer a top priority, including in a weekend conversion with President JOE BIDEN and in a Zoom with senators and House members Saturday. . .
> But there was resistance inside the administration . . .“due to the complications in getting them over the border and into the hands of Ukrainian pilots.”
Then, on Tuesday, this shocking announcement from Poland, via press release: “The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Government, are ready to deploy — immediately and free of charge — all their MiG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America.” The statement added that Poland also “requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities” and asked “other NATO Allies — owners of MiG-29 jets — to act in the same vein.”
American and European officials were gobsmacked. Undersecretary of State VICTORIA NULAND, testifying before Congress when the announcement came, said that it “was a surprise move by the Poles.”
Later, Pentagon spokesman JOHN KIRBY rejected the Polish proposal. “The prospect of fighter jets ‘at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America’ departing from a U.S./NATO base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance,” he said. “It is simply not clear to us that there is a substantive rationale for it.” Noting “the difficult logistical challenges it presents,” he added, “we do not believe Poland’s proposal is a tenable one.” . . .
With tough sanctions in place, a Russian oil and gas embargo announced by Biden, and a no-fly zone ruled out, Zelenskyy’s desperate plea for the Polish MiGs is the most significant outstanding request from Ukraine.
Which brings us back to today …
I hope for your sanity you can accept that soon and move on.
If I was doing a doctorate, which I am not and have not, then I might be calculating percentages more regularly based on what it was on but I am not.
I have not needed to calculate percentages to any significant degree since I was 16 doing GCSEs, if I am a little rusty and forgot to multiply by 100 in the middle of posts apologies, I am certainly not going to say it was 'shameful'
The best exhibition I've been to in years. I was also blown away by the Gold of the Steppe at the Fitzwilliam in Cbg so we are in a bit of high spot for the museum sector coming out of Covid.
We are not going back to further restrictions, tough. Covid may well be here for the rest of our lifetimes, we need to learn to live with it unless a variant emerges that is really vaccine immune
So 99.24% are not dying, even though no doubt much of the asymptomatic are getting missed from your denominator plus the deaths will include antivaxxers?
That's benign not nasty. Just move on.
EU +42.2
Nato -16.8
UK +56
Biden +25.8
Johnson +49.6
Zelensky +79
Putin -86.7
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1501571883573075972
Scholz +23
Xi: -19
Macron not asked.
The larger than expected renewable energy round in Scotland may make something of an extra difference by then if a large % of projects succeed.
Which brings us back to today …
Harris will land in Poland on a mission to rally NATO against Russian aggression. But her visit could now be dominated by the question of why the U.S. and Poland have fumbled the transfer deal.
On a call previewing the trip, a senior administration official conceded the issue would be front and center. “We have been in dialogue with the Poles for some time about how best to provide a variety of security assistance to Ukraine,” the official said. “And that’s a dialogue that absolutely will continue up to and as part of the vice president’s trip.”
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/03/09/harris-steps-in-the-middle-of-a-nato-standoff-00015516?nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=e1cfd233-f95b-4015-b1cf-636f158eba55&nlid=630318&cid=hptb_primary_0
SSI - sitting in my armchair, my view is that this is a critical juncture for Ukraine, NATO and (of course) Russia. Also for President Biden, and most certainly for Vice President Harris.
My personal expectation is that she will help broker an agreement that will provide planes to Ukraine some how, some way. Because for one thing, don't think Biden would have sent her out with any other expectation. Because the stakes are huge for both POTUS and VEEP, not to mention the rest of us across the world.
Another problem is how does all this that’s switched off in Russia get switched back on by us? Our government has been determined to tell us it’s not the Russian people it’s Putin’s regime, so the end of Putin regime would be the trigger to throw our arms around the Russians and turn it all back on again? but seems to me our government are losing on that message, the longer it goes on it’s becoming Russia, not Putin? We don’t know just how many Russians back what Putin has done, how many share the same opinion as ourselves about it, I sense quite a lot, but surely we need them as way out of this, yet targeting them, seemingly so they put the pressure on at home, is probably more nuanced than the rabid ruskiephobia now happening?
But now we are, perhaps, presented with some different questions. What is happening in Hong Kong, South Korea, and - possibly - Germany? It is just low vax rates or rubbish Chinese vaccines in HK? Or is Omicron BA2 potentially a new menace to a number of countries - especially China? To what extent can it reinfect? What is the true CFR?
I wish we didn't have to ask these bloody tedious questions yet again, but maybe we do
Why do you care about daily hospitalisations of fewer than 0.001% of the population?
For Zero Covidiots it's a problem but for everyone else why not just accept that people get sick and move on?
That said, no doubt they will stretch it out with a long and fruitless series of lockdowns. Do you remember the early months of covid, with the lack of economic activity in China? Presumably that all over again, with the consequent knock-ons for supply chains and commodity prices.
Do you remember when POO went negative? A sudden slump in commodity prices would be typical of Russia's fortunes in this war.
We were all triple vaxxed, and were lucky.
This isn't about trying to catch you out, out you down, make some kind of bigger point. Just hoping for a bit of humanity in you to accept that we all say stupid now and then.
Alternately, digging your heels in and refusing to admit any error makes you look like the world's most pompous spanner.
Concerns were raised about take-up in some parts of Germany among older people, a while back.
No he’s not.
The U.K. has had a long-standing policy of helping Ukraine, which given Russia’s use of nerve and radiological weapons on U.K. soil is to be commended.
Some of our European allies have been naive at best or wilfully blind at worst - but they all seem to have woken up to the threat now and are responding expeditiously. It’s team work.
I am going back again tomorrow for my second round, there was so much to absorb, I now realise I missed things, and it was really busy on Sunday - so I am hoping for fewer crowds
I've never been to an exhibition twice before. It really is that good
That said, oldest daughter did have a nasty cold. But tested negative throughout.
I suspect through vaccination and/or repeated exposure we are all brimming with antibodies at the moment.
Some may not like it, but he's been genuinely world leading here and that's for the betterment of the world and Ukraine especially.
To be fair, he didn't start this policy though he's the one who led the West this year on this, Theresa May (whom I'm not a fan of in general) and David Cameron both deserve credit too. Britain has been a key partner for Ukraine for years now.
See that Putin, you loser!
Spanners are useful. You can use them to mend Covenanter tanks, for example. They are simple, humble tools, that just work. Every home should have a set of spanners.
So I think they are valuing the early military assistance (and perhaps the visibility of Johnson's personal relationship with Zelenski) over the types of assistance the EU is providing in greater quantities in other areas.
It is however a classic example of a time when a simple "D'oh, my mistake" would have defused the situation. Because we all make errors from time to time. And better to recognize it with a smile and a shrug.
South Korea, HK, Vietnam, and to a lesser extent Germany, have all had way fewer Covid cases to this point
No justification whatsoever to keep further restrictions
As Charlie Brown used to say, good grief!
However, banning Tchaikovsky is plain daft and small-minded.
Boris as you say got their earlier with military supplies to Ukraine, while Macron is playing catchup having spent too long trying to get Putin to not invade Ukraine rather than help Ukraine if he did
View was that she will get flattened in 2024. She’s got a difficult and thankless job, but she’s not making a go of it. He expects Newsom to run for potus in 2024 - sees it as wide open - but generally concerned by lack of talking on the democrat bench. Doesn’t rate Buttegieg- infrastructure bill was fantastic opportunity for him and he was nowhere to be seen
Nearly one in ten
So knowing the true IFR - in the light of vaccines, better treatments, etc - is going to be really important for them. At the moment death rates are still pretty low in S Korea, but they are also shooting up fast from that low base
Cardiff should have used the concert as an opportunity to celebrate gay Russia.
https://youtu.be/-6RID82Ru-k
How are Ukraine being equipped to take out that threat? Do the rules of the game allow Ukraine to use weapons supplied by Nato to take our ground based rockets originating from Russian territory?
I'm sure my wife and I sucked in omicron particles, which were swiftly identified and neutralized.
For us, it acted as an unnoticeable booster shot.
And this is one of the reasons why - even with an R0 of 7 - covid fades fairly quickly in a well vaccinated population.
Come to think if it, have Priti Patel and HYUFD ever been seen in the same room?
One of my daughters learned to cheerfully admit she was wrong and not mind about it while still at infant school. I was so proud of her. Her older sister has observed the success of the tactic and also learned; her younger sister has not, yet.
Many adults I know have also not yet mastered this approach.
In the UK many of us have already had Omicron anyway
Anyway according to this Trafalgar quality poll taken in a warzone, that would be Zelensky, with the EU as Bronze medallists.
Keep on rockin' in the free World
About 1.2% of people die annually in the developed world. Even if everyone catches it and it's 0.4% (which it clearly isn't for the fully vaccinated) that's still not significant.
Death rates may be shooting up from zero in countries overly inflicted with zero covidianism but so long as they're fully vaccinated only to a liveable amount.
For the fully vaccinated it's pushing through deaths door those who are dying anyway primarily.
All Biden and Macron have to do is read from a tele-prompter and, if they choose, take questions from journalists.
Nick Robinson: So, HYUFD I see you made a completely understandable mistake in calculating percentages.
HYUFD: What we need to focus on here, Nick, is to make sure our National Health Service continues to receive the funding and support it needs to be able to cope with all illnesses.
NR: Yes of course, but your error of calculation. Surely you can see that you were out by a factor of 100 and we don't want to give the wrong impression to our listeners.
HYUFD: Because of the measures taken by this government Covid numbers have declined dramatically and we are now seeing the benefits of....etc...
Alternatively:
Nick Robinson: So, HYUFD I see you made a completely understandable mistake in calculating percentages.
HYUFD: Yes Nick apologies, it was a silly error, I meant 0.27%
NR: So. You got that wrong. Can you tell us please what else you have got wrong when you have spoken about Covid.
HYUFD: Look it was an entirely understandable mistake, anyone could have made it, we all do, I'm sure you have, Nick.
NR: So we can't trust anything you say now. Thank you HYUFD over to you Martha...
("You are someone I don't agree with on barely anything" - so someone you agree with on most things?)
Edit: slightly uncharacteristic language/visible annoyance from you too, HYUFD. We don't agree on a lot, but I respect your general civility in the face of often quite hostile responses. So I don't criticise you for it, but just hope that things are not getting to you. We all write dumb things on here from time to time where we've messed up maths or misunderstood something. No biggie.
She has been besieged with criticism from across the house and normally any cabinet minister in this situation would be seen next to the Prime Minister at PMQs as evidence of confidence, but Patel was not anywhere to be seen
Reports this morning of cabinet colleagues of Patel pilling into her in cabinet was not unexpected
The announcement that Michael Gove will now take responsibility for the sponsorship visa scheme and former mp, Richard Harrington has been granted a peerage and appointed to the specific office of minister for refugees
Ben Wallace confirmed at the dispatch box that the defence - home - foreign office are meeting this afternoon to coordinate the refugees response
Put all that together and Patel is marginalised
Sure every country will think of their own contribution as being the best, but it’s still a crowded field though, even the competition to supplying the best military assistance you flag up? Germany got some praise when belatedly sending something more useful than hats, but it was hardly remarked it was all rusted and unusable.
I would answer, macron and Schulz met Putin in Moscow, then dropped by in Kyiv to tell Ukraine to fully implement minsk2, I’m not even aware of Boris chatting to Putin on the blower, he certainly doesn’t share same outlook of EU regards Minsk.
The danger here is, with the greater expectation, Boris and UK can be the ones to let Ukraine down most? 🤔
If, one year, that suddenly went up to 850,000 - and did it in a matter of weeks - we would certainly notice. We'd lockdown voluntarily, even if HMG did nothing. No one would go out
This is most unlikely to happen in the UK, I agree. We have good vax rates, a good booster campaign, we use good vaccines, we have good treatments, and - perhaps most importantly of all? - we have a ton of natural immunity from all the cases we have had already
BUT elsewhere there could be major problems. As is happening right now in Hong Kong
I'd recommend Lermontov's "A Hero of Our Time". (It's fairly short.)
And, for music, Shostakovich's final symphony, the 15th, sends the shivers.
I bow to others in knowledge of the details here, but there are suggestions that some of the vaccines used in China may not actually be massively effective.
I know HK has used a lot of Sinovac, as well as Pfizer - are there any views about the effectiveness of that one?
Perhaps telling the Prime Minister that he is the Savior of the West might enhance one's chances of preferment & patronage? Is that the game here?
https://youtu.be/M7K5IdhMOIs